Latest / Pod Save America / “Build Back Meta.”

Transcript

“Build Back Meta.” · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: On today's pod, Democrats are on the cusp of passing
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the most progressive piece of legislation in decades. One that
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: still leaves out some of the party's most important priorities.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Virginia organizer Tram Nguyen gives a report from the field
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: with just a few days left of an uncomfortably close race.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: And Dan and I break down the closing arguments and
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: strategies from the McAuliffe and Youngkin campaigns. But first, if
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: you want to make sure we're registering new voters now
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: instead of panicking a few weeks before the next election,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: please donate to our No Off Years Fund. Every penny.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: We'll go towards registering voters in places like Arizona, Florida,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. We've raised $ 270, 000 so far.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Thank you to everyone who donated. And we're almost halfway
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: to our goal of reaching 600,000 by the end of October.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I haven't checked what the date is, but it seems
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: like it's close to the end of October, so we
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: could really use your help. If you would go to votesaveamerica.com
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: slash donate and give what you can, we would really
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. And so would democracy. One more note before
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: we start. Crooked smash hit video series, Campaign Experts React,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: is back. Dan, what have you and Elijah cooked up
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: this time?
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: We had our friend Peter Hamby from Snapchat on, just
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Snapchat and Puck News, to break down the ads in
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: the Virginia governor's race. It is a must watch, and
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: it's very important everyone watches because I am fighting a
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: battle against Elijah, who is still trying to cancel Campaign
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Experts React.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at Elijah in the studio here and he's flustered.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: It's the vigorous response from the campaign experts react fans
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: out there have him shook.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: He's really wishing there was a microphone in front of
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: him right now, but Dan has somehow made sure that
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: it's been taken away. Okay, let's get to the news.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: After months of easy, inspiring negotiations, President Biden rallied Democrats
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in Congress today and then spoke to the nation about the... Nearly, hopefully,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: final framework for his economic plan. I'm calling it an
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: economic plan still because hope springs eternal, even though what
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: the press is calling it is garbage. Anyway, here's what's
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: included in the final framework. The biggest investment in climate
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: and clean energy in the nation's history. The country's first
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: ever universal preschool program for all three and four year olds.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: a program that would limit child care costs to no
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: more than 7% of a family's income, another year of
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the child tax credit to cut child poverty in half,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: an expansion of the Affordable Care Act that would cover
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: millions of uninsured Americans, an expansion of Medicare to cover
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the cost of hearing, and hundreds of billions of dollars
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: in elder care, home care, and affordable housing. All of
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: this is paid for by new taxes on multimillionaires and billionaires,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: by new taxes on profitable corporations that currently pay zero
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: dollars in taxes or ship jobs overseas, by new taxes
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: on corporate stock buybacks, and by going after tax cheats.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Here's what's not included that Biden and most Democrats wanted,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: but Manchin and or Sinema killed. Paid family and medical leave,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: prescription drug reform, two years of free community college, and
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: an expansion of Medicare to include dental and vision. The
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: president spoke about the new framework today before leaving for
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Europe for the climate summit. Here's a clip.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: We spent hours and hours and hours over months and
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: months working on this. No one got everything they wanted,
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: including me. But that's what compromise is. That's consensus. And
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: that's what I ran on.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: All right, Dan, how are you feeling about what policies
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: are in the bill?
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Fucking great, John.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: There we go. There's some optimism. Now talk a little
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: bit more about that before everyone calls us shills for
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the Biden administration.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Look, in all seriousness, I understand that this process was painful.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: The people involved, mainly Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, Josh Gottheimer
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: as well, could not have been more annoying along the way.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: It is the Exact opposite of the way you would
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: design a process to ensure maximum political and messaging impact
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: for something this important. And I don't think there's anything–
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: there are people out there who are very happy about this.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: People out there are very mad about paid leave, the
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: fact that some of the climate provisions that we care
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: so much about are not in there, community college. There's
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: nothing constructive about telling people not to be mad, right?
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: What did you think was going to happen? Did you
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: not see Joe Manchin on Fox News Sunday three months ago?
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: He told us it would happen. That is not a
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: helpful way to do it. But the way I have
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: reached this level of optimism, which as you know, is
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: not my natural state of being.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Pushing a big boulder up a hill.
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: But I have been trying to do some visualization exercises
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: and I tried to put myself in. So imagine this.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Imagine it is one year ago today. We are heading
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: into the presidential election. And someone visits us from the future.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: And the polls are telling us, oh yeah, fucking Joe
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Biden's going to win by 10 points. And we're going
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: to sweep huge majorities into Congress because the polls are awesome.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: So someone, do you have any access to Grant against pollsters?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I am. Cause we're going to talk about this
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: in Virginia soon, but yeah.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Anywho, let me get back to my positive, optimistic visualization exercise.
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: Sorry.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, we are so, we moved the pod recording
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: time one hour and we're the yin and the yang
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: are off, are off kilter here. Look, anyway, so imagine
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: it is one year ago today. You were heading into
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: the election. Someone visits us from the future and says,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I got some good news, some bad news, and then
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: some great news. And says, here is the good news.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden wins. Here's the bad news.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: That's not the great news?
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: No, that's not the great news. The bad news is
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: those polls were all wrong. He wins by a small margin.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: A margin so small the election is contested for months
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: in a way that ends in violence. We do not
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: get the 55-seat Senate majority we had imagined. As it
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: turns out, those deeply red states did not vote for
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: Democratic senators. We end up with 50 Senate seats.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Cal Cunningham and Sarah Gideon.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: And a whole other group of other people. And not
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: only that, we lose so many seats in the House
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: that we have three or four votes to play with
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: on any given day. But despite that, Joe Biden is
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: going to pass a nearly $ 2 trillion rescue plan that
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: is going to send checks to millions of Americans. It's
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: going to expand the child tax credit in a way
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: that will halve childhood poverty. He will follow that up
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: with a near trillion dollar infrastructure plan, which, oh, by
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: the way, is passed on a large bipartisan vote. Then
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: on top of that, he is going to pass a
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: large jobs and climate plan. That will invest a half
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: a trillion dollars in saving the planet, have universal pre-K,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: will have child care, will expand Medicare, will strengthen the
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Affordable Care Act, all of those things. And if you
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: were to say that that would happen, you say, that
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: is an incredible outcome. I cannot believe that happened. If
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: you remove ourselves from the what might have been of
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: the three and a half trillion, all these things in
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: legislative process of the last few months, this is a
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: remarkable achievement. I recognize it's not fair to ask everyone
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: to look at it that way. But we cannot lose
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the success of what we are on the cusp of
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: getting based on what we thought we might have gotten
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: months ago. And it is, without a doubt, if this bill,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: as we imagine it is, ends up on his desk,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: a historic legislative achievement, one of the most consequential pieces
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: of legislation passed in decades, full stop.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I completely agree with all of that. I have three
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: points to add. I think that Two of the biggest
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: challenges facing humanity are climate change and massive inequality. And
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the policies in this bill do more to combat both
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: of those than any bill I've seen passed in my
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: 40 years on this earth now. Number two, I think
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: to get a bill this ambitious passed with, as you said,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: only three votes to spare in the House and 50
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Democratic senators, including two Democratic senators, who are conservative and
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: refuse to kill the filibuster, would be an incredible achievement.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I say would be because we are not there yet.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: We will talk about that in a second. And especially
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: considering that now that we've been through these negotiations over
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the course of several months or a couple of lifetimes, perhaps,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: the central dynamic of these negotiations has been that passing
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: nothing is more acceptable to Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: than it is to almost any other Democrat in Congress
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: or the White House, which gives those two senators more
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: leverage over the final bill than anyone else in Washington.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I think that a lot of people, I include myself there,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: believed at the beginning of this process that progressives and
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: not just progressives, just about every other Democrat in Congress
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: and the White House had more leverage over these negotiations
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: than we thought, because I thought that Manchin and Sinema
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want to walk away with nothing. It has become
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: clear over the course of these negotiations, while they didn't
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: necessarily want to walk away with nothing, it was much
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: more acceptable to them to go home and say, we
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: didn't pass anything. And I'd rather vote for nothing than
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I would for what the rest of the party wanted.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: That's what they... That's basically what they decided. And so
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: once you know that that's the central dynamic of the negotiations,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: which clearly every other Democrat in Congress on the White
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: House came around to, which is why Bernie is negotiating
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: directly with Joe Manchin, which is why Elizabeth Warren is
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: pulling him into an elevator to talk to him, which
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: is why Pramila Jayapal is calling Kyrsten Sinema, right? Like,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: they all get that this is the dynamic and that
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: as much as it fucking sucks... that there's no amount
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: of screaming and yelling and arm twisting that was going
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: to change Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema's mind on the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: fact that they, at the end of the day, were
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: more willing to walk away than almost anyone else in
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the caucus and in the White House. And I think
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that's an important dynamic.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: Did anyone try tweeting at them?
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: No, we were tweeting, we ran ads, Joe Biden twisted
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: their arms, everyone else twisted their arms. Joe Manchin... Right.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: There's there may not be another Democrat elected from the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: state of West Virginia in our lifetime. And so he
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: is either running again in a state that Trump won
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: by 30 points, in which case all Joe Manchin cares
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: about is winning over a bunch of Republicans or he's
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: not running again, in which case there is no such
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: thing as political pressure on him because he's about to
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: retire and he doesn't give a fuck.
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: So that's Joe Manchin. Kyrsten Sinema. clearly thinks it's in
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: her political interest to do this. I don't agree with that.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I think that we could run a primary opponent against
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: her in 2024 that could beat her. But again, that's
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: not till 2024. And we're sitting here in 2021. So
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: that's the dynamic that we're dealing with them. The final
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: point I want to make is I think that if
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: we want to pass more ambitious, progressive policies, which I
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: badly want to, the only option, and I have thought
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: about this for days and days and days and nights
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: and nights and nights, is to replace mansion, cinema, and
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: a few other members in the House with more progressive candidates.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: And that requires us to run those candidates and win
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: those elections in those states. That is it. That is
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: the only other option here. And I know that is
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: incredibly frustrating to everyone who's worked so hard in 2016
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: and 2018 and 2020 and all these elections and knocked
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: on doors and called voters. And it's really, really hard
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to say, why do we have to keep doing this? Unfortunately,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the situation that we're in is that we're going to
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: have to keep doing this for the rest of our
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: lives because that's what democracy is. And that is especially
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: what democracy is in a situation where it's under threat
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: by another party, which we haven't talked about yet, that
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: is busy trying to destroy democracy while we're all busy
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: trying to argue over the best possible legislation to pass
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to improve people's lives. And that's the situation that we're
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: in right now. And it's a tough situation. And it
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: makes her really frustrated and pissed off a lot. Makes
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: me pissed off and frustrated a lot. But then I
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: think to myself, wow, think of the families whose lives
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: are going to be changed by the fact that now
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: they can send their three and four year olds to preschool,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: universal preschool in this country, just like you send them
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to public school and high school, public high school. Think
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: about the families that aren't going to have to pay
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: more than 7% of their income in childcare costs who
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: really need help with childcare right now. Think about like
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: future generations that are going to grow up in a
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: country where that has transitioned to clean energy because we
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: spent half a trillion dollars on climate. These are big things.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: These are big things. These aren't just like, let's accept
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: half a loaf kind of things. These are big, ambitious policies. Again,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: they're not everything we wanted, but they're big.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: I also have spent a lot of time thinking about
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: this and just having conversations with people in your life
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: who maybe got engaged in politics over the last four
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: years or so, trying to understand why this is hard.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Because they never lived in it. Either they were too
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: young or they didn't care about politics. In the last time,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Democrats had control to actually do stuff. And so explaining
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: why this is so hard is a deeply unsatisfying thing
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: to do, right? Because it's just like, We worked our
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: tails off. We're in control. Why can't we do the
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: things we want to do? And it's like, well, Joe Manchin.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: What do we do about Joe Manchin? Everyone just throws
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: up their arms because there's nothing to do about Joe Manchin.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: And this is as equally dissatisfying an answer to it.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: But it's not like we should definitely just, under all scenarios,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: run a primary opponent against Kyrsten Sinema. She has broken
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: faith with the people who elected her and worked hard
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: to elect her. And there is no policy. There is
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: no principle. It's just chaos there. We can run 1,000
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: primary opponents against Joe Manchin and it don't matter, right?
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Joe Manchin is– as you said, he will– it's not
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: even like an if. That is the last Democratic senator
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: from West Virginia for maybe ever, frankly. The next one
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: will be– either be a Republican or a member of
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: the forward party will be the next two options I think.
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: But it is, well, this is, it is an uphill
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: battle for sure. And we will be undoubtedly facing a
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: lot of political headwinds, but there is nothing that says
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: we cannot come back in 2023 with 52 Democratic senators.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: That is the map, right? Like we can, we can
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: defeat Ron Johnson. We can pick up the Pennsylvania seat.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: There's a seat in North Carolina. We have to, we
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: have to defend a lot of our seats and the
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: history and those sorts of elections is not great, but
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: it can be done. And I think Your choice is
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: if you are angry and disappointed about what happened because
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: you care passionately, as you should, about even more aggressive
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: climate policy or about paid family leave or about community college,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: you can either disengage or you can double down. Disengaging
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: guarantees we will never accomplish anything as good as this before.
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: And the things you care about will never get done
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: because it is 99% of Democrats who want to do
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: them and 0% of Republicans. What we need is more Democrats.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: And so if we double down, we might get to
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: a point where if we had 52 Democratic senators, if
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Cal Cunningham and Sarah Gideon had one, we would not
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: care one iota what Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema felt
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: about these things. And that to me is a reason
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: to work hard. I think we could even probably promise
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: the listeners of this podcast, if we, if everyone works
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: their tails off when we return for two senators, that
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: we would just ban the words Manchin and Sinema from
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: this podcast. We would never talk about them again.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Like that. I mean, like, well, look, like, Be angry,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: for sure. I'm angry. But just direct your anger towards
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the right people and towards the right strategies here. That's
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: all I ask. Because I see a lot of shorthanding that, like,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Democrats did this. Democratic leadership did this. Why did Democrats, Democrats, Democrats?
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: It's Joe Manchin and it's Kyrsten Sinema. And it is
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: a few House members, specifically on the prescription drug stuff,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: who tried to kill prescription drug reform along with Sinema.
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: And.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: and in the House too, primary some of those people, right?
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Some of the people who killed prescription drug reform, which
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: is one of the most popular proposals polled, and something
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Democrats have been running on for fucking 15 years, some
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: of the people who killed that in the House are
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: in very safe blue districts and could easily have a
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: primary opponent, right? So do that. But let's make sure
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: we are directing our anger towards the right people, the
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: people who are responsible for not getting everything we wanted,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: And don't punish people like Raphael Warnock or John Ossoff
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: or Mark Kelly or Maggie Hassan or, you know, Catherine
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Cortez Masto. I'm listing all the people who are up,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: the senators who are up in 2022 or all of
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: the House members, some of the House members who Democratic
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: House members who are in frontline districts, vulnerable Democratic House
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: members who have wanted all of the stuff that Joe
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Biden and a lot of the progressives proposed from the
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: very beginning and are taking a political risk by voting
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: for it. and pushing for it, and have already been
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: on the record for it, even if it doesn't end
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: up in the final bill. Those people took risks, and
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: we should support them. And the people who tried to
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: kill this stuff, and their names are all over the reports,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: you can find them, get mad at them and start
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: running primaries against them, for sure, for sure. I do
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: want to zero in on the nearly half a trillion
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: dollars of investment in climate and clean energy that's in
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: this bill, which makes it the biggest part of this
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: economic plan, and makes it the biggest climate bill in
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: human history. It is mostly carrots and no sticks, credits, grants,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: loans to help the industrial and agricultural sectors transition to
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: the use of clean energy. Do you think that's enough
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: to reach Biden's goal of cutting our carbon emissions in
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: half by 2030? Is it at least enough for the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: president to not get booed out of the climate summit
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: in Glasgow?
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I certainly hope it's enough for him not to get booed.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: It's a big deal. And I think there are two
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: elements of this that I think are worth noting. One
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: is Biden clearly prioritized climate over everything else in this bill.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: When Joe Manchin nixed the clean energy standard, he took
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: that money and put it back into climate. It didn't
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: go to anything else, right? And he fought for climate.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I think that is just something that is incredibly notable
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: because during the primary, Joe Biden had one of the
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: least ambitious climate plans of the people running.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: Ambitious, right?
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Compared to everything that came before it, but compared to
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Sanders and Warren and Jay Inslee and others, it was
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: less ambitious. In the general election, he listened to Bernie
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Sanders and he listened to activists and he had a
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: climate working group with AOC and John Kerry and they
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: put in place this very ambitious general election climate plan
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: and he fought with it. It sort of shows a
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: couple of things about– it's a tribute to Joe Biden
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: and his team, but also to climate activists who kept
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: pressuring him. So I think that's really notable. Is it
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: enough on its own to reach his goal? No, but
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: climate experts who've looked at this think that paired with
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: aggressive executive action can get us there. And so it's
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: not the way you would design it if you did
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: not have to appease Joe Manchin, but it is an
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: incredibly important historic investment. And just to think about it
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: in context, In the Recovery Act in 2009, there was,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I think, $ 92 billion of climate funding. That alone, by
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: all accounts, revolutionized the clean energy market in this country.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: And so we're talking to something several times larger than
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: that that can have a dramatic impact. And that funding
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: was ridiculed at the time, but the fact that we
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: sit here today and Tesla is a trillion-dollar company is
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: not disconnected from the fact that we made investments in
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: in battery technology and solar research and all of the
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: above that was part of that bill. And so you're
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: seeing something much larger here. So it's a, is it
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: absolutely huge deal? Is it enough on its own? No,
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: but it is really, really, really important.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And I, um, just to get a little wonky
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: on this, I, I talked to, um, Dave Roberts this morning, uh,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: it was a climate reporter expert has been covering this
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: for a long time. And he was telling me a
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: couple of different environmental groups, climate groups modeled this and
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the The tax credits in the original proposal were actually
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: doing most of the work when it came to hitting
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Biden's very ambitious climate goal of cutting half our emissions
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: by 2030. Only about 30% of the emissions reductions were
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: coming from the clean energy standard and the methane rule
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: and the methane provision in the bill. And so, like
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: you said, they took that money and they didn't put
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: it elsewhere. They put it back into climate, so they
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: put it into more credits and loans and grants. And
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: what they've modeled is they think that they can, that
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: will almost make up the difference of the 30% and
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: then the rest will be made up if Biden, if
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: the administration and the EPA can do a rule on
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: methane through regulations and a couple other executive actions that
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: are regulations through the EPA. So there is a belief
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: that among experts that study this, that you could get
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: very close to the emissions goal because what ends up
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: happening is instead of a standard which penalizes companies for
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: not hitting certain emissions goals, you basically are just flooding
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: the market with so much clean energy money or money
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: for transitioning to clean energy that it becomes more profitable
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: for utilities to run on clean energy than coal and
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: natural gas. And the utilities end up making the decisions
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: on their own to shut down coal and natural gas
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: because it's just more profitable to run on clean energy
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: because now there's just this gigantic market for clean energy.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: And just as an example of I think in the
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Obama administration, we passed about $ 60 billion worth of clean
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: energy investments and tax credits. And that created a huge
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: market for clean energy that has led to some of
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the progress we've seen over the last several years. Now
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: imagine $ 500 billion, half a trillion dollars, and what that
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: would do to create a clean energy market. So there's
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of hope on the climate stuff. And that's,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: I think, why you're seeing a lot of climate groups,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: climate experts, the Democratic politicians who care about climate like
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Brian Schatz. sort of happy about this part of the bill.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about where this all goes from here. And again,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: we are recording at 1130 a.m. Pacific time on Thursday,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: so all of this could change. The House still wants
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to hold a vote on the infrastructure bill today. Pelosi
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: wants to hold the vote today, so hopefully it can
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: pass before Biden leaves for the climate summit. House progressives
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: are saying they still want to see legislative language, not
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: just a framework, though they have now come out and
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: said they are supportive of the framework. But they want
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: to see two things, legislative language, and they want a
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: promise from Joe Biden that he's got all 50 Democratic
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: senators on board so that Manchin and Sinema don't try
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: to pull anything. Meanwhile, Sinema released a statement this morning
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: on the new framework calling it, quote, significant progress and saying, quote,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: she looks forward to getting this done. Manchin was asked
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: by reporters what he thinks. He said, quote, this is
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: all in the hands of the House right now. And
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: that's all I'm going to say for today. So he's
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: being uncharacteristically quiet. Bernie Sanders said the new framework is, quote,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the most consequential bill since the 1960s. So that's favorable,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: but has major gaps in it, which is what we
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: have just been saying. And that he's continuing to fight
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: for more Medicare expansion and prescription drug reform before the
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: House votes on the infrastructure bill. Can you figure out
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: what's going on here and how this might play out?
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: No, I cannot. I am so mystified. By the desire
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: from Pelosi to pass BIF.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: I know, I know. To pass the.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: Bipartisan infrastructure framework. Do as I, whatever. I don't really understand.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: Doesn't seem like there's any chance that's going to happen.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think that that is at all relevant to
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: the sort of reception Joe Biden's going to receive abroad.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: So I'm sort of– it's weird. Like that was a
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: big deal this morning. She wants to do it. She's
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: going to call the vote. Joe Biden went to the caucus,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: pitched the framework, did not call for them to pass
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: the bipartisan infrastructure bill today. He just wants them to
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: pass the whole thing. There is just like something missing here.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: I said this to our producers this morning. I said
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the same thing. I'm like something is missing and I
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: can't figure it out. Because everyone's looking at Cinnamon Mansion
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: statements and they're like, that is not 100% supportive. They're
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: sort of lukewarm at best. Mansion's being uncharacteristically quiet. Like,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: what's going on? Obviously, we don't trust those two. But
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I will say, they have not been shy in the past,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: either of them, in saying what they don't like about
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: a bill. So, like, it feels like they're supportive, but
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: if they are supportive, why wouldn't they put out a
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: supportive statement? I don't know what's going on there.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: My one completely unfounded guess is is that as part
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: of the deal that they struck for this framework was
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: some commitment to try to get the bipartisan bill passed
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: today or this week. That is the only thing I
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: can possibly fathom that Manchin meant when he said, it's
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: up to the House now.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: And I think that the progressives might understand that because
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: you're not hearing from them We're not going to vote
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: for the bipartisan infrastructure package. And we still don't like
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the framework. You're hearing, and Jayapal said this today, we
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: want to see the text. We want to vote for
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: both bills. We want to know that the Senate Democrats
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: are all on board. That's what they want. Which, by
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: the way, seems fairly reasonable to me. I don't know
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: why we wouldn't get the assurance from all 50 Senate Democrats.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know why Manchin, like if Manchin and Sinema
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: still have problems with the framework, They should just say
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: what they are. They don't have to say it publicly.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I don't, we don't all need to fucking know, but they,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: but they should tell the white house and they should
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: tell Pelosi and Jaya Paul like, and they should work
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: out those last few differences.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Right. Yeah. I, it just, it seems like you're sort
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: of setting yourself up for failure to do this when
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: the progressives have been incredibly clear that they're not going
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: to do it. And I think not trusting cinnamon mansion
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: is a completely fair position to take.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Now, I saw someone say that like Pelosi could just
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: start the vote and it could be like a vote
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: that's held open longer than any vote we've seen in
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: a while.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Like, so what she could do is say, all right,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: I'm holding the vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Let's
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: start every Democrat who wants to vote for it now
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: without seeing the text can vote for it. If any
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Republicans want to vote for it, they can vote for
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: it since it is the fucking bipartisan infrastructure bill, though
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: all the house Republicans are probably going to vote against
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: it cause they're fucking assholes. Um, So she could then
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: hold it open and the progressives aren't going to vote
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: against it. They're just not going to vote for it.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: And then you just keep holding open the bill, which
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: I guess pressures everyone to come to a final agreement
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: so that then you can finally, all the progressives can
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: vote yes because they've seen the text and got the
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: assurance that everyone's on board. That's the only thing I
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: can think of.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Seems like it's complicated and simple of like, let's just
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: write the text.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Right. Get writing, everyone. A little less tweeting, a little
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: fewer press conferences, more writing. You know? Let's get everyone
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: in a room and start crossing the T's and dotting
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: the I's there. Okay, when we come back, we will
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: talk to the co-executive director of New Virginia Majority, Tram Nguyen.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Election Day in Virginia is Tuesday, and the 538 polling
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: average has Terry McAuliffe ahead of Glenn Youngkin by only
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: one and a half points in a state that Joe
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Biden just won by 10 points less than a year ago.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: In the closing weeks, Democrats like Biden, Barack Obama, and
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Stacey Abrams have campaigned for McAuliffe, while Donald Trump has
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: threatened to campaign for Glenn Youngkin, but as of right
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: now has no plans to show up before Tuesday. Still,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Youngkin is closing with very Trumpy messages about opposing vaccine
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: requirements and preventing schools from teaching kids about racism. Specifically,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Youngkin is running an ad attacking McAuliffe for a controversy
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: over Toni Morrison's classic book, Beloved. To help us sort
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: through all this nonsense and tell us what's actually happening
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: on the ground, we are joined by the co-executive director
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: of New Virginia Majority, Tram Nguyen. Tram, welcome to the pod.
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: Hey, thanks for having me.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: So how long have you been knocking on doors in
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Virginia and around how many voters are you talking to
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: each day?
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: Well, we've been on the doors actually since January because...
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: We knew that with still being in pandemic and still
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: being in COVID, that it was going to take a
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: little bit longer to reopen. all the voters we needed to.
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: So we've been on the door since January. We've made
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: almost half a million door knocks and about 780,000 phone calls.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: And we're still going pretty strong, just trying to reach
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: every voter we can until, you know, November 2nd.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: That is so many doors. Does the, does the race
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: feel as close as the polling?
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: Well, I'll say this. I live in a state of
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: perpetual anxiety. Will not rest easy until the polls close
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: on Tuesday. And we know, we know what the results are, right?
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: You know, it, It feels close in some ways and
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: it doesn't feel close in other ways. I don't know
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: if that makes sense. You know, there's a lot of noise.
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: The other side is certainly louder. And so it makes
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: it feel like they have more urgency, but when we're
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: on the doors and we're actually talking to people, our
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: folks are pretty excited and they're, they're actually tapped in.
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: They love the direction that Virginia is going in and
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: they want to keep it moving forward. And again, You know,
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: maybe they're not as loud, but they're certainly voting and
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: we can already see that in the early vote numbers.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: I am also a resident of that state of perpetual anxiety.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: So I'm right with you. Dan, too.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Yes, of course. So there are two schools of thought
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: about how to know what's going on in the race.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: One is to look at Twitter. The other is a
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: talk to voters. And you and your volunteers are out
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: there talking to the voters every day on the phones,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: on the doors. What issues are sort of front of
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: mind for the Virginia voters you're talking to?
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: It probably won't surprise you that the number one issue
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: that folks have been talking about has been health care.
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, we are still in this pandemic, right? And
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: so folks are worried about what happens if they get
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: sick or somebody in their family gets sick and they're
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: not able to pay bills. We did expand Medicaid a
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: couple of years ago, which, you know, allowed over 500,000
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: Virginians to get access to health care. And it was
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: a great step, but there's more work that we have
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: to do. People care about, you know, parents care about
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: the fact that their kids are back in school and
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: thankfully children will be able to get vaccinated soon. But,
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: you know, they're worried, right? What happens if they get
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: that phone call from their teacher or the principal saying
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: there's been exposure, your child has to quarantine for 14
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: days and then they're scrambling on oh gosh, how do
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: I take time off work for 14 days? Like, what
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: am I supposed to do? And so when they bring
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: up these issues, we're able to talk to them about
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: some of the plans we have, right? Like Democrats have
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: a plan to pass paid family and medical leave, right?
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: In Virginia next year. And so those are the things
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: that people really care about, like these bread and butter issues,
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: which I know we say like every election cycle, but
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: it's actually true.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: The- If you were to read the press coverage of
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: the race or look at the ads or some of
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: the stuff that the Youngkin campaign is saying, that the
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: central biggest issue is this story, is this controversy mostly
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: trumped up and made up about critical race theory, teaching
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: racism in schools and beloved. Are you hearing any of
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: that from voters? Is that a real thing? It seems
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: to be the main message of the Youngkin campaign for
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: weeks now. Is that reflected in what you're hearing?
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: It's the loudest message, certainly in the media and in
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: the space. But again, when we're actually talking to voters
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: like one-on-one, they're not talking about that. They really aren't.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: That's not the thing that they bring up at all.
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: Because we don't just go to voters and say, hey,
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: do you plan on voting? And can we count on
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: you to vote for, you know, so-and-so Democratic candidate or
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: so-and-so other candidate? We actually ask them first, like, what's...
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: What's on your mind? Do you know that there's an
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: election coming up? What's at stake for you? And so
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: that way they're proactively telling us what is their number
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: one issue. And critical race theory, all of that stuff
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: does not come up. It almost feels in many ways manufactured.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: For some of the voters you're talking to who haven't
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: yet decided whether they're going to vote or who haven't
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: decided who they're going to vote for, What are some
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: of the issues on their mind where they're trying to
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: decide between candidates or between staying home and voting? What
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: do they talk about more than anything?
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: That's a great question. I think that for a lot
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: of voters who are undecided, I think in part it's
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: because they weren't aware that an election is actually here, which...
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: you know, for those of us in this world, we're like,
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: are you kidding? We have elections in Virginia every year. Like,
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: of course there's an election coming up. But for some
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: folks that we talked to, they're like, oh, there's an
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: election coming up. I wasn't aware. Let me look into
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: it a little bit more and, you know, find out
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: a little bit more about the candidates and where they
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: stand on my issues. And, you know, I can't tell
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: you who I'm going to vote for today, which is
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: totally fair and totally fine. But, you know, Again, when
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: we remind people, when we know what issue they care about,
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: we remind people of all the progress that we've made, right?
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: In the last two years, we have made progress on
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: every front, whether that's voting rights, making sure we raise
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: the minimum wage and protecting workers' rights. We have done
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: a lot of reform in the criminal justice space, abolishing
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: the death penalty, legalizing marijuana. When you talk about these
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: things and then people are like, oh yeah, we really
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: like all of that, but that's still like, It's not enough.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: You're like, well, of course it's not enough. We are
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: talking about needing to undo generations of barriers that have
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: left many of us behind. It's not going to happen overnight.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: But you know what? If you choose a team that's
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: going to actually work with us to continue to make
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: that progress, that's what's at stake here. And I think
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: those types of conversations are what's motivating a lot of
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: folks to to pay attention more to these state level
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: races that people sometimes don't necessarily pay attention to. And
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: they are hopefully going to vote on Tuesday or before Tuesday.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: The other media narrative that you hear a lot is
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: the sort of dysfunction or the legislative mess in Washington
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: and national issues and Biden's approval rating and all that
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: are affecting the race in Virginia. Are you hearing that
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: at all when you talk to voters?
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: I think it depends on the region, right? So of course,
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: Northern Virginia is very much like DC's backyard. And I
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: think a lot of folks in Northern Virginia obviously pay
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: a lot more attention about what's happening in Congress. I
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: think less so in other parts of the state, although
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: people are certainly paying attention. I think it's too simplistic though,
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: just to be like, oh, the federal level, they can't
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: get the bill back better plan and the reconciliation bill through.
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: It's like, well, most people don't actually know the difference
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: between the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill or what
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: all of that really is, right? And so I don't
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: think it's as black and white as that, but I
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: do think that people are hungry for Congress to act, right?
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: There's a lot that needs to be fixed in this
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: country And there's a lot of progress that we need
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: on all fronts. And they are really looking forward for
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: Congress to act. And hopefully they can soon.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: One of the themes of the four years Trump was
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: president was an incredibly fired up base of Democratic activists.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: Just know it was very easy for people to volunteer,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: majority swing left. People traveled to Virginia in 2017 to
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: campaign for state house races. One of the things people
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: have been very curious about is whether that enthusiasm would
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: stay with Trump, not on the ballot at least. What
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: is the level of enthusiasm? Has it been harder to
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: fire up Democratic activists this time around?
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: I think the activists are actually quite fired up. We
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: still have folks coming from out of state to help us.
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: We have a group based in Seattle that's amazing, and
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: they actually have come out to Virginia already to canvas
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: with us, and they're coming back. this weekend for the
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: final stretch. Most of our phone banking actually is from
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: out-of-state volunteers, right? So folks are volunteering in-state, our volunteers
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: are canvassing. I mean, it's not as, I mean, I'm
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: not gonna lie, it's not as much as we've seen
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: in 2019, right? And I think that could be based
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: on a couple of different factors. I mean, we're all tired, right?
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: Like not even just tired from elections, but just tired
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: from life.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: Right. Like we're all juggling so much because of COVID
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: dealing with family at home and dealing with, you know,
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: work life and everything else, folks are tired. And so,
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: you know, it's, it's, it's, it's been harder to get
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: folks to volunteer their precious time, but that's not to
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: say that, you know, people aren't doing it. Like I said,
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: we've got volunteers from all over the country that are
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: supporting us now.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: So we have a lot of listeners who are going
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: to be volunteering and phone banking over the next few days.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: What would you tell them is the most important message
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: to deliver to folks that they're on the phone with
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: who may have not decided what they're going to do
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: yet on Tuesday?
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: Oh, my gosh. I think it's about what's at stake.
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, I live in a state of perpetual anxiety,
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: not because of who's going to win and who's going
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: to lose on election night, but because of like what's
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: actually at stake for our communities. Right. Less about the candidates.
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: But we have made so much progress. And we cannot
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: afford to turn back the clock and we cannot afford
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: to play defense, right? We have only started, you know,
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: tip of the iceberg and we got to keep it going.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: So it's really about that. And I think, again, with
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: all the Virginia voters at work, talking to, we remind
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: people of the progress we've made on all fronts and
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: they want to keep it going. So I think that's
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: the message that's resonating the most and that we've got
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: a bold vision to keep going.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: We really do.
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: I've got a whole list of things that, you know,
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: we still.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Got to get done.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: So Well, I think that's a great message. Tram Nguyen,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for all
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the work you're doing and good luck in these final days.
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much. Thanks for having me.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: All right, Dan, let's talk about what we just heard
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: from Tram and what we think about the closing strategies
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: in this race. The Democratic message seems to be that
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Glenn Youngkin is far more extreme than he appears. Here's
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: our old boss and President Biden making that case this week.
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: You can't run ads telling me you're a regular old
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: hoops playing, dishwashing, fleece wearing guy, but quietly cultivate support
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: from those who seek.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: To tear down our democracy.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Terry's opponent.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: Has made all of his private pledges of loyalty to
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. But what's really interesting to me, he won't
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: stand next to Donald Trump now that the campaign's on.
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: Think about it.
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: Is there a problem with Trump being here?
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Is he embarrassed? Really brings you back, especially hearing Obama
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: doing his riff there. Is this the right closing message?
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it is the right closing message. I mean, Virginia
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: is the prototypical state that exemplifies the shift in the
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: electoral coalitions post-Trump. It is a state that has an
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: incredibly high percentage of college educated voters, many of them
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: living in the suburbs. It is a state that moved
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: from a very close battleground state in 2012 to a
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: state that Hillary Clinton won easily in 2016, and then
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Biden won by even more in 2020. So it is critical.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: It is a good strategy to nationalize the race, to
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: make it be about Trump and send a message to
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: those voters who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 that
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: Clinton Youngkin is not one of those Republicans you used
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: to vote for. He is the exact kind of Republican
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: who made you switch and start voting for Democrats.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Biden seemed to be baiting Trump there into getting involved
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: in this race. Trump being Trump, took the bait, released
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: a statement soon afterwards saying he'd see Virginians soon. I'm
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: sure Glenn Youngkin was super excited about that. Then last night,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Wednesday night, the Trump folks walked it back and said
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: that the former president wouldn't be in Virginia before Tuesday.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: What do you think that was all about?
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I'm sure there was a party-wide effort to use toddler-level
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: reverse psychology to convince Trump he should not go. I mean,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: the amount of panic that must.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Have gone through. Too bad.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, it would have been amazing, but I'm sure
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: I know what they did is they went to Trump
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: and said, look, we got the poll in here and
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: I think this guy's going down. And the last thing
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: you want to do is stand with that loser three
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: days before he loses to Joe Biden's friend.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Oh, interesting. Interesting. Well, that would be smart if they
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: did that.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's how they sort of got him not
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: to get into some races in 2018 as well. So
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: I think that's Probably. And they promised him World Series
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: tickets because he's going to game four of the World Series.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: I know. I saw that too. Wonderful. There's always a
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: balance there, right? Because I'm sure, and this is why
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Glenn Youngkin has sort of like walked this tightrope the
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: whole campaign, that in some ways, Donald Trump not coming
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: to Northern Virginia, but maybe Southern or Western Virginia and
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: like rallying the Trump base to come out and vote
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: for Glenn Youngkin has some value to Youngkin. But of
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: course- I think that the statement. Trump put out was like,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: I'll see you in Arlington or see you in Alexandria.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump coming to Northern Virginia for Glenn Youngkin, I'm
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: not a field organizer or a polling expert or anything
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: like that, but I'm going to say that's bad. That's
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: bad for Glenn Youngkin.
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: But it's like Trump is such a divisive figure, particularly
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: in that state, where if he went anywhere, it's not
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: like the DC media market, which is what covers Northern Virginia,
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: would not spend days covering the pending Trump rally if
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: he was in Southwest Virginia or wherever else. And so the,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: the young people clearly made a decision, which I think
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: was probably the right decision a long time ago that
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: whatever benefits they would get from Trump in terms of
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: turnout from Trump appearing in a, you know, very MAGA
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: friendly part of the state would be massively overwhelmed by
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the backlash it would face against the exact, but he
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: has to win a bunch of Biden voters, right? Like
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: that's the math to win. He's got to win a
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: lot of one in 10 Biden voters. And so that's
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: why they, I'm sure begged him not to come.
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: So, Youngkin and the Republicans are definitely going more local
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: in their closing argument. No Trump, for now. Not a
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: lot about national politics, even. Instead, they released the ad
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: we referenced earlier, where a Fairfax County mother and conservative
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: activist attacks Terry McAuliffe for vetoing a bill when he
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: was governor that would have forced schools to notify parents
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: when teachers assigned books with sexually explicit content, in this case,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Toni Morrison's Beloved, so that parents could choose substitute assignments
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: for their children if they chose. Here's a clip.
• 44:58
  Speaker 6: So when my son showed me his reading assignment, my
• 45:01
  Speaker 6: heart sunk. It was some of the most explicit material
• 45:05
  Speaker 6: you can imagine. I met with lawmakers. They couldn't believe
• 45:10
  Speaker 6: what I was showing them. Their faces turned bright red
• 45:13
  Speaker 6: with embarrassment.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: Okay. So first of all, when did you read Beloved?
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: I read it in high school. I... Remember there being,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: it's a wonderful book. First of all, there are some
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: like dark parts of the book. I don't, I mean,
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: I don't remember. I don't know. I don't remember a
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: sexually explicit material jumping out at me or what the
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: fuck are they talking about?
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I also read it in high school, but I'm going
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: to let you in on a secret.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: You don't think it's about that?
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think this kid, no, I don't think this
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: kid read Beloved.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Oh, it gave me nightmares, mom.
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: It's like replace Beloved with To Kill a Mockingbird. This
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: also gave me nightmares. Replace To Kill a Mockingbird with
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Jane Eyre, right?
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: There's a whole generation of kids who are now going
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: to just claim nightmares to get out of having to
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: read long, challenging books in high school.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Also, you're in high school. No one's making a kindergartner
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: read Beloved, right?
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: Why?
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: Still in a pandemic. The economy is still struggling to recover.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Why is Youngkin closing with this?
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Because this is the way to appeal to Trump voters
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: without standing with Trump. It is a message of racial grievance.
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: It is to say that history– because it's like the
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: very specific thing is about Beloved in this case. Not
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: an accident written by Toni Morrison, one of America's most prominent,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: if not the most prominent black authors. But it is
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: all about this completely trumped up, no, actually, yes, pun intended,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: controversy about critical race theory being taught in schools. That
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: is the wave they are trying to surf here that
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: shows that America is changing. That change is bad for
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: you white people. And I, like Donald Trump, am going
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: to stand as a bulwark against that change. And this
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: is not a dog whistle. It is a bullhorn. Yes,
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: they want to localize the race versus nationalize it, but
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: they're doing it by hitting a very national theme.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: Here's where I'm not sure I totally agree with that.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: We see this ad. All it takes is for you
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: to Google this woman. In five seconds, you get from
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Google that she led the fight against this book and
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: that you know that it was a By Googling it,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: you know that it's about Beloved and you know that
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: it's about Toni Morrison. And then you think, oh, okay,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: I get what's going on. If you're just a Virginian
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: sitting home watching the ad, you have no idea it's
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: about Beloved. You have no idea it's about Toni Morrison.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: All you know is that this woman is complaining that
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Terry McCullough forced her son to read sexually explicit material.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: And so it is then incumbent upon you to go
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: to your computer, get on your phone and find out
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: what the whole controversy is. So I do wonder if
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: there's another intention from Republicans running this ad, which is
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: maybe more of a dog whistle than a bullhorn, or
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe neither, which is just like Terry McAuliffe and
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Democrats think that they get to control what happens in
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: your school. By the way, wink, wink, there's also been
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: a fight about critical race theory and teaching racism in school.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: So that's part of the dog whistle as well. I
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: just don't know if it's as explicit as the Tony
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Morrison beloved thing, since it's just not mentioned in the ad.
• 48:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: I think we're saying the same thing, right? Which is the,
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: you have to put this ad in the context of
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: the fact that Youngkin has been campaigning on banning critical
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: race theory from schools for months now.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: And, Which, of course, is not being taught in Virginia schools.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: I can't say that enough. It is completely and totally
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: made up. It only exists in the Fox News metaverse,
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: if you will.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: And we should also say, because sometimes this isn't enough
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: to just say, oh, it's not being taught in schools.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: What is being taught in schools to children is the
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: history of racism in America. And that seems to be
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: what Republicans truly have a problem with and not critical
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: race theory.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. I guess maybe the context
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: here is there are these two votes you mentioned that
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: McCullough vetoed as governor. And then he had a statement
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: in the last debate about how parents shouldn't decide whether
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: what is taught in schools. That was viewed as a gaffe.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: They want to make that the central theme of the race.
• 49:42
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: And so this ad is a way, very effectively, as
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: evidenced by the conversation you're currently having, shifting the conversation
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: in the final days to the thing they want to
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: focus on. Because if you look at some of the polling,
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: like there's a Fox News poll, which does issue differences,
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: like who you trust on the issues. And McAuliffe has
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: a decent advantage on almost all the issues over Youngkin.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: Education is pretty close to tied, but they also ask
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: the question, and this is a dramatically... oversimplistic version of
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: how you would ask the question. But it says, should
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: parents have a say in what their kids are taught
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: in school? So this is a Fox News poll that
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: McAuliffe is winning by a few points. And it's 50-45, yes,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: they should have a say. And so you want to
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: close a campaign on your issue, not theirs. And they have,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: at least for the time being, successfully shifted it to
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: that issue. Whether that is enough to win, whether that
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: really matters to people, open question. But the media conversation,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: social media conversation is on what they want to be
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: talking about, not what McAuliffe wants to be talking about.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Well, I think the interesting thing here is the Democrats
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: haven't chosen to say, okay, that's what they want to
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: be talking about. We want to be talking about, uh,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Youngkin's ties to Trump or his opposition to vaccine requirements
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. We're going to talk about this too. Um,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: they don't They don't just think this ad is stupid.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: They think that clearly Republicans made a mistake with this ad.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: McAuliffe has been accusing Youngkin of wanting to ban books
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: and silence black authors. His staff passed out copies of
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Beloved during the Biden rally. And he's out with this
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: video today.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I'm a Virginia parent. And I'm tired of politicians like
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: Glenn Youngkin stoking chaos in our schools. There are two sides.
• 51:19
  Speaker 6: To the Holocaust.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Books teaching our kids about Martin Luther King and Rosa
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Parks should never be banned.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: School officials should never be subject to death threats and intimidation.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: I know the chaos is meant.
• 51:31
  Speaker 6: To distract me. And I will not sit down.
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: I will vote. I will vote. I will vote.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: My daughter and my community need a better example.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: So I'll say this. I think the handing out beloved
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: at the rally, that is a tactic for people who
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: are super online and super engaged in what's going on
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: in this race and are following all the contours of
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: the race, reporters, activists, everyone else is online. And I
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: was not sure, I'm like, how is this going to
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: break through? This is basically just to get reporters to
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: tweet about this. That ad, That's for people who may
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: not know this whole controversy over Beloved, the book, Toni Morrison,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: all the rest of it. But I think it's very
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: effective because it's sort of turning around Youngkin's ad and
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: then saying, look, Glenn Youngkin basically wants to like ban books,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: thinks there's two sides to the Holocaust tied to Trump.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Like that seems like it's more fertile territory for McAuliffe's
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: message and the contrast McAuliffe's is trying to make. And
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: it doesn't require you to know about this controversy, which
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of people in Virginia may not
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: know about.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: I'm for mass distribution of Beloved. It's a great book.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: We should have more people read it.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: That's just a good thing to hand out to people.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Everyone should read it.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: It's a press gimmick. No one who has not decided
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: who they're going to vote for or whether they're going
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: to vote is ever going to know about that or
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: care about it. It's just like a press gimmick. An
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: idea someone had and they did it and it's fine.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's good or bad necessarily other than
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: the general benefit of exposing more people to Toni Morrison.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: But I think there's sort of two ways to think
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: about how the McCullough folks will respond to this. One
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: is their strategic imperative is to make Glenn Youngkin seem
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: like an out-of-the-mainstream, extreme Trumpist Republican. And they see, I believe,
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: an opportunity to do that here on what is, according
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: to polling, Youngkin's strongest issue, which is education. So that
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: is a very well-worn school of political thought, which is
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: take your opponent's political strength and make it their weakness.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: And so you could see that happening here. The thing
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: I worry about in the execution thus far– and it's
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: important to note that all the execution is happening sort
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: of in the Twitter media bubble. We're not– like that
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: ad is a very, very good ad and it works
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: even if you knew nothing about that original Yunkin ad
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: or what it's about. It just works as it fits
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: our strategic imperative. The danger is getting– two in the
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: weeds on this, making it about specifically silencing Toni Morrison
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: or books. And you're sort of, I worry you could
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: potentially lose the thread there and take it.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Well, I thought it was very refreshing to just talk
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: to Tram and hear what, we don't do nearly enough
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: of this. I find myself thinking like, how do you
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: and I unlearn the lessons we've learned Through however many
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: campaigns we've been on, which is like ignore the media
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: narratives and the Twitter bubble and everything online and like
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: listen to what people are hearing on doors from voters.
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: But somehow I always unlearn it because here we are
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: trapped in the Twitterverse talking about politics all the time.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: But it was so refreshing to hear her be like, oh, yeah,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: you know, people are talking about health care.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: Which has not showed up in one single goddamn national
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: story about that race for months.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: Not one. They're like, they're juggling costs. They're worried about healthcare.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: They're worried about jobs. They're all kinds of normal things
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: that people, voters are always worried about when you talk
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: to voters. No one was like, hey, I have a
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: question about the controversy over Beloved and Toni Morrison. And
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: that's how, I mean, like, it's just, it gets a
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: little ridiculous how these races sort of like take on
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: a life of their own. And there's just this like, momentum,
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: especially in the final weeks of a race where everything
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: does feel a little sillier and removed from what actual
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: voters are talking about on the ground.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: John, I would like to remind you that four years
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: ago this week, Washington went insane.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Because Donna Brazile Four years ago. Oh, yeah, four years ago.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: I was going to pull back something you said about
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: an election four years ago. We do not do that.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: I thought you were going to be– I didn't hear
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: four years in my mind. I thought a year ago
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: because before the 2020 election, I thought we were going
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: to talk about Hunter's laptop, which is, I think, what
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: we were talking about a year ago at this time.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: So four years ago at this time, in the run-up
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: to the Virginia gubernatorial election, the first major battle post-Trump's victory,
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: there was a collective– freak out because Donna Brazile, the
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: former DNC chair, released a book critical of the Democratic Party.
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: And there were real people who still have jobs in
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: media today.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: They were all on the set of Morning Joe.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: Complaining, saying that this was going to cost Democrats the election. Yep.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: There's a great clip of it. I'll tweet up the
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: clip at some point.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: So it was just like, we all have to take
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: a step back.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: It was the Donna Brazile book, plus MS-13 attacks are
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: working and Ed Gillespie. Just I'm glad you brought this
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: up because this sort of gets to our last question
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: I want to ask you, which is like, why is
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: this race so close? And do you actually buy that
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: this race is so close? Because in 2017, when it
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: was Ralph Northam against Ed Gillespie, the polling average was
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: very close. It was maybe that we're now one and
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: a half. McAuliffe's up one and a half. I think
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Northam and Gillespie by the end were two. Northam was
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: up two, three, maybe not much more than this. There
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: were a couple polls. There was a poll or two
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: that showed Gillespie in the lead. And then the Morning
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: Joe set, famously in this clip. Donna Brazile's book has
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: turned the race against Northam. The MS-13 attacks have turned
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: the race against Northam. And then Ralph Northam wins by
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: nine points. Nine points. And again, I don't want to...
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: Who knows what the polls are? Like, whether the polls
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: are right or not. There's something that has... in my
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: gut told me that it's not, it might not be
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: as close, but I think that's only because if I,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: I very much believe that if Glenn Young can pull
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: this out, it's not just like a warning sign for Democrats.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's a fucking catastrophe because, and this is
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: not like a point and a half race in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: all states that Joe Biden won, but that were close.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: If we were at like a one and a half
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: point race there and then we ended up losing, I'd
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: be like, yeah, you know, party out of power tends
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: to do worse and off your elections. There's a lot
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: of headwinds that Joe Biden and Democrats are facing. So
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: I get why we lose. Joe Biden won Virginia by
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: 10 points and the composition of the electorate and polarization
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: we know have been more predictive than anything else since 2016.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: And so, yeah, do you expect, um, uh, do you
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: expect Terry McAuliffe to win by less than Joe Biden
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: and maybe less than Ralph Northam? Yeah, probably four or five,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: six points, whatever. But If he loses, yeah, that's something bigger.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: There's bigger problems there, which is making me feel like
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: there's something going on with the polling here, but I
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we do not know. We're not on
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: the ground. We don't see internal polling. We're looking at
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: media polls. We're looking out of a cracked, fogged up
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: window trying to see what's happening out there. And so
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: predictions don't make any sense.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: They were bad before. They're even worse now.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, there are reasons to believe that Structurally, McAuliffe
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: should win this race.
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: He has margin of error given the partisan lean of
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the state. But there are warning signs all over the place, right?
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: The body language of the campaigns, I think, suggests that Youngkin,
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: at least in their internal polling, it seems as close
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: as maybe the public polls suggest. There is a consistent
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: theme in the polling that Youngkin's voters are more fired
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: up than ours. That also tracks with history. That is
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: almost always true that the party who lost the previous
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: presidential election is more fired up in the first midterm
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: or the first off-year gubernatorial election. And so there are
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: reasons to be concerned. The reason why this matters more
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: than just what happens in Virginia is the big question is,
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: do those suburban voters go back to voting for Republicans?
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: And if that is the case- And Democrats.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: And not just some of them, a lot of them,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: like you said. A lot of them have to go
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: back to the Republican Party.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: But if Democrats do not– if that is a theme, right,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: of the post-Trump party and the midterms, and Democrats do
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: not bounce back to the level of white working class
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: voters that they had in 2012 and get back to
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: the level of black and Latino working class voters they
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: had in 2012 and 2016, we cannot win anywhere. That
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: is the math. So I'm just going to choose to.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: And by the way, we cannot win anywhere. That's like,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: pretend there weren't voting restrictions. Pretend there weren't gerrymandering. Yeah,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: there's no voter suppression here. There's no voting restrictions in Virginia, right?
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: No one came in and put up a bunch of
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: voter restrictions. In fact, it's got some of the best, easiest,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: most accessible voting in the nation, thanks to Terry McAuliffe
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: and Ralph Northam. So there's no excuses there.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it is.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: Terry McAuliffe should win. He should win.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And I will say one more thing. The California recall.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: At one point, the polling average had, you know, Newsom
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: surviving the recall by two points by the end right
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: before Election Day. It was the polling average was 16
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: points in favor of Newsom. And so you think, OK, well,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: the polls figured it out. He ended up winning by 23,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: 24 points. The polls were off. Even though they said
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: he was going to win, the polls were off by
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: eight points in California. That is a gigantic miss. So
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: the idea that the polling problems that we had in
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: 2020 have been solved is crazy.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Unless they are accurate in this one, and then I
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: guess they have been solved. Or they have been solved
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: in one state.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: Just because your clock that broke at 1 p.m. is
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: correct twice a day does not mean that your clock
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: is correct.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: Because Newsom won and survived the recall, no one really
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: talked about what happened in California, but an eight-point miss
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: in the polls is fucking huge.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: And as notable as the poll miss is that it
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: basically ended almost at exactly Newsom's 2018 margin.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Which goes back to my original point, which is the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: polarization and composition of the electorate is just it matters
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: a lot more than it ever has because the country
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: is so polarized right now. And so, like, yeah, you
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: go from 2018 in California all the way to 2021.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: And in three years, it's like nothing happened. Newsom gets
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: the same margin, same number of votes almost than he
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: did in 2018 after everything that's happened between 2018 and 2021. So,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: you know, again, we'll see what happens in renew. But
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: if you are in living in a state of anxiety,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: like Tram said she was or we are, then the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: best thing to do is, you know, not wonder what's
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: going to happen, but make it happen, which is to
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: volunteer and do some phone bank shifts. I did one
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: last weekend. I know you've been doing them. Hopefully we'll
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: do some more before Tuesday. But yeah, we got to
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: win this one. Got to win this one. Thanks to
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: Tram Wynn. for joining us today and giving us a
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: report about Virginia and everyone have a great weekend. We
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: will see you next week.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: Bye everyone.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is Andy Gardner Bernstein.
• 1:03:14
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• 1:03:17
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• 1:03:21
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• 1:03:24
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• 1:03:28
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