Latest / Pod Save America / “Covid, covid, covid.”
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: We can't put on things we can't verify.
- 0:04Speaker 2: Leslie, they spied on my campaign.
- 0:06Speaker 3: Well, we can't verify that.
- 0:06Speaker 4: It's been totally verified.
- 0:08Speaker 2: No.
- 0:08Speaker 4: No, your first question was, this is going to be
- 0:10Speaker 4: tough questions.
- 0:11Speaker 5: Why?
- 0:12Speaker 4: You don't ask Joe Biden.
- 0:13Speaker 3: I saw your interview with Joe, the interview with Joe Biden.
- 0:16Speaker 6: I never did a Joe Biden interview.
- 0:17Speaker 5: It was a joke.
- 0:18Speaker 4: I think we have enough of an interview here, Hope. Okay,
- 0:21Speaker 4: that's enough.
- 0:22Speaker 2: Let's go.
- 0:24Speaker 5: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- 0:26Speaker 3: I'm Jon Lovett.
- 0:26Speaker 6: I'm Tommy Vitor.
- 0:27Speaker 5: That was a big whiny baby talking to Leslie Stahl.
- 0:31Speaker 5: That's the opening clip that you heard. You guys see
- 0:35Speaker 5: that 60 Minutes interview?
- 0:36Speaker 6: That's how I wanted to close, yeah. Closing strong.
- 0:41Speaker 3: So 60 Minutes, you can download it as a podcast.
- 0:44Speaker 3: And then you can listen to it at 1.3 speed,
- 0:46Speaker 3: which is what I would recommend for that.
- 0:49Speaker 5: You know what you missed, Lovett? You missed seeing him
- 0:52Speaker 5: grit his teeth. teeth and clench his jaw while she
- 0:56Speaker 5: asked him the questions. Fair enough. Anyway, on today's pod,
- 1:00Speaker 5: Tommy talks to Wisconsin organizer Dakota Hall about how Democrats
- 1:03Speaker 5: can turn out as many young voters as possible. Before that,
- 1:06Speaker 5: we'll talk about how the COVID-19 pandemic is dominating the
- 1:09Speaker 5: final week of the campaign, what the candidates' schedules can
- 1:12Speaker 5: tell us about their closing strategies, and what, if anything,
- 1:15Speaker 5: we can learn from the record-breaking early vote. Lovett, how
- 1:18Speaker 5: was the show this weekend?
- 1:19Speaker 3: Great, Lovett or leave it. Barnburner, second to last show.
- 1:24Speaker 3: Alex Wagner and Guy Branum did okay. Stop on the debate.
- 1:26Speaker 3: Ira Madison for the monologue. We talked to Teresa Greenfield
- 1:29Speaker 3: who quizzed me on Iowa facts. I talked to Olivia Troy.
- 1:33Speaker 5: Do you know the price of corn?
- 1:34Speaker 3: No, I don't know the price of corn. I'm a,
- 1:35Speaker 3: I'm a East Coast. I, yeah.
- 1:37Speaker 5: I mean, it depends.
- 1:38Speaker 3: Like if it's, if they cut it off of the,
- 1:40Speaker 3: of the cob before they serve it, I kind of
- 1:42Speaker 3: get a sense of the price. But, um, and then
- 1:45Speaker 3: I talked to Olivia Troy about working with Mike Pence
- 1:48Speaker 3: and I tried to get her to criticize Mike Pence,
- 1:49Speaker 3: but I kind of failed. and talk to a young
- 1:53Speaker 3: person trying to turn out the vote on TikTok for Biden.
- 1:54Speaker 3: It was a great show.
- 1:55Speaker 6: Hey, Barry, lead Love It. I didn't know you were
- 1:57Speaker 6: canceling Love It or Leave It after a couple more shows.
- 2:00Speaker 4: Second to last show?
- 2:01Speaker 3: Till the election. Listen, first of all- Oh, thank God.
- 2:05Speaker 3: What would I do on Saturday? I mean, look, I
- 2:06Speaker 3: had to keep this going till I can get the
- 2:07Speaker 3: applause back. I obviously missed the applause. And I think
- 2:11Speaker 3: 2021 is the year I can have applause again.
- 2:13Speaker 5: Damn right.
- 2:14Speaker 3: Make America applaud again.
- 2:16Speaker 5: Travis's hands are calloused and bruised at this point just
- 2:19Speaker 5: from doing this on Zoom.
- 2:23Speaker 3: But it helps.
- 2:24Speaker 5: No comment. If you didn't catch it already, also check
- 2:28Speaker 5: out Lovett and Dan's interview with Joe Biden. We finally
- 2:31Speaker 5: got Joe. We got him. Special bonus episode, Pod Save America.
- 2:35Speaker 6: It was very nice to hear a good human being
- 2:39Speaker 6: geeking out and getting excited about policy. When he told
- 2:42Speaker 6: you that he was going to be pushing the Sunrise
- 2:44Speaker 6: Movement and not the other way around, I was like,
- 2:45Speaker 6: all right, man. There we go, Joe.
- 2:47Speaker 4: He's ready to go.
- 2:49Speaker 3: He's ready to go. He wants to be president.
- 2:50Speaker 5: And to the rest of the Biden family who listens
- 2:52Speaker 5: to the pod, who we didn't know. So these grandkids,
- 2:56Speaker 5: maybe Ashley, like, welcome. Welcome to the pod.
- 2:58Speaker 4: Love to have you.
- 2:59Speaker 6: Just forget all that shit in the primary. We were
- 3:01Speaker 6: just kidding.
- 3:02Speaker 3: No, what primary?
- 3:03Speaker 6: Yeah, never happens.
- 3:05Speaker 5: We've been riding with Biden from the beginning.
- 3:07Speaker 2: All right.
- 3:07Speaker 5: Finally, if you've already voted. Uh, fantastic. But your job
- 3:12Speaker 5: is not over. You have about a week to make
- 3:14Speaker 5: sure everyone else votes too. Uh, we will not just
- 3:17Speaker 5: win this thing with good early vote numbers. We're going
- 3:19Speaker 5: to talk about that later. Uh, it is absolutely critical.
- 3:22Speaker 5: We get people to make a plan to vote and
- 3:24Speaker 5: turn in their ballots. Uh, ideally this week. Don't wait
- 3:27Speaker 5: till election day. Turn it. If you have your ballot,
- 3:30Speaker 5: mail in your fucking ballot. If not. figure out a
- 3:33Speaker 5: plan to go to a Dropbox, drop it off in person.
- 3:37Speaker 5: Or if you really want to vote on election day,
- 3:39Speaker 5: make a plan to do that, but make a plan
- 3:41Speaker 5: and make sure everyone else in your life makes a
- 3:43Speaker 5: plan as well. You can go to votesaveamerica.com slash volunteer
- 3:46Speaker 5: to find all your options to get involved between now
- 3:49Speaker 5: and election day. We need people to call to remind
- 3:51Speaker 5: people to turn in their ballots, to make a plan,
- 3:54Speaker 5: still trying to persuade some undecided voters. There are a
- 3:57Speaker 5: lot of calls to make. There are a lot of
- 3:58Speaker 5: voters to contact. We really all need the help. So
- 4:02Speaker 5: go to votesaveamerica.com slash volunteer to get involved.
- 4:04Speaker 3: You, a lot of people, have heard that again and
- 4:07Speaker 3: again and said they were going to do it. This week,
- 4:12Speaker 3: one hour, make some calls. You haven't done it yet.
- 4:14Speaker 5: There you go. Who's he talking to?
- 4:17Speaker 4: I don't know.
- 4:18Speaker 2: Exactly.
- 4:19Speaker 3: Exactly.
- 4:20Speaker 5: All right. With nine days left to vote, here's the
- 4:24Speaker 5: headline in today's Washington Post. White House signals defeat in
- 4:27Speaker 5: pandemic as coronavirus outbreak roils Pence's office.
- 4:33Speaker 6: Oh, my God.
- 4:33Speaker 5: It's not funny because the pandemic is awful, but that
- 4:36Speaker 5: headline is funny in the last week of the election
- 4:39Speaker 5: for Donald Trump. That's right. After five of the vice
- 4:42Speaker 5: president's aides tested positive for COVID-19, the White House chief
- 4:46Speaker 5: of staff told Jake Tapper, quote, we are not going
- 4:48Speaker 5: to control the pandemic, which is now beginning its third wave.
- 4:51Speaker 5: On Friday, the U.S. hit an all-time record for daily
- 4:54Speaker 5: cases as hospitalizations jumped in at least 38 states, including
- 4:57Speaker 5: 14 states in the Midwest and Mountain West, that have
- 5:00Speaker 5: reported a record number of COVID patients in the last week.
- 5:04Speaker 5: Love it. Before we get into the political implications of
- 5:06Speaker 5: all this, why is this third wave potentially more dangerous
- 5:10Speaker 5: than the previous two?
- 5:12Speaker 3: Well, it seems like it's on track to be bigger.
- 5:15Speaker 3: This has been the fear the whole time, right?
- 5:17Speaker 4: The whole fear.
- 5:18Speaker 3: You know, when Trump was saying it'll be gone by summer,
- 5:21Speaker 3: The other half of that was there was a great
- 5:23Speaker 3: worry about what happens when America has a winter during
- 5:26Speaker 3: this pandemic. We know when the flu season is. It
- 5:28Speaker 3: comes in the winter.
- 5:29Speaker 4: Why?
- 5:29Speaker 3: Because people go in their homes. They're inside. There's poor ventilation.
- 5:32Speaker 3: So the fear was that if we had not done
- 5:35Speaker 3: enough to contain the virus by the time we got
- 5:37Speaker 3: out of summer, we'd be in a position for the
- 5:41Speaker 3: worst wave yet, that the second wave was bigger than
- 5:46Speaker 3: the first wave and that the third wave would be
- 5:48Speaker 3: bigger than the second wave. Europe is a bit ahead
- 5:50Speaker 3: of us. And I see some conservatives and others taking
- 5:55Speaker 3: cold comfort and somehow explaining with a kind of fatalism
- 5:58Speaker 3: that if Europe's cases are going up, that must mean
- 6:01Speaker 3: this would have happened anywhere. But what we know is
- 6:03Speaker 3: that Europe did a very good job of getting this
- 6:05Speaker 3: contained when we were seeing our second wave. And the
- 6:08Speaker 3: fact that they're going up so dramatically and we're going
- 6:10Speaker 3: up right behind them so dramatically tells you that we
- 6:13Speaker 3: could be in for an incredibly scary and tragic winter,
- 6:18Speaker 3: which by all account would, you know, given how little
- 6:22Speaker 3: national leadership there is. And when we know that a
- 6:25Speaker 3: lot of where this outbreak is growing the fastest is
- 6:28Speaker 3: in red states, Midwestern states, states controlled by Republicans.
- 6:32Speaker 5: Yeah, and everywhere. It's probably the first wave that is,
- 6:35Speaker 5: I mean, the Midwest and Mountain West are really sort
- 6:38Speaker 5: of where it's concentrated, but it's like, you know, 40
- 6:41Speaker 5: something states have had rising cases. So it's very scary
- 6:45Speaker 5: that it's all over the country right now. And again,
- 6:47Speaker 5: that it seems to be just beginning. Mark Meadows, the
- 6:50Speaker 5: White House chief of staff who reportedly Trump wants to fire,
- 6:53Speaker 5: went on CNN Sunday to let America know that the
- 6:55Speaker 5: White House has all but given up on COVID. Here's
- 6:57Speaker 5: a clip.
- 6:57Speaker 2: We're not going to control the pandemic. We are going
- 7:00Speaker 2: to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics, and
- 7:04Speaker 2: other mitigation areas because it is a contagious virus, just
- 7:09Speaker 2: like the flu.
- 7:10Speaker 5: Yeah, but why not make efforts to contain it?
- 7:12Speaker 2: Well, we are making efforts to contain it.
- 7:14Speaker 5: By running all over the country, not wearing a mask?
- 7:16Speaker 5: Tell me... How good is Mark Meadows at his job?
- 7:21Speaker 5: And what could a real White House be doing right
- 7:22Speaker 5: now to contain the virus?
- 7:23Speaker 6: Yeah, we're not going to control the pandemic. We've noticed, Mark.
- 7:28Speaker 6: This morning, I was thinking about Mark Meadows and how
- 7:31Speaker 6: he ranks among former White House chiefs of staff. And
- 7:35Speaker 6: I was ready to be very harsh to Mr. Meadows.
- 7:37Speaker 6: But then I thought about Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney
- 7:40Speaker 6: and H.R. Haldeman having the job. and suddenly he looks
- 7:43Speaker 6: a little bit better. But I do think he stands
- 7:45Speaker 6: out for being uniquely stupid and seemingly going rogue all
- 7:49Speaker 6: the time. I mean, how do you otherwise explain him
- 7:52Speaker 6: both trying to cover up Mike Pence's COVID diagnosis, which
- 7:55Speaker 6: we learned happened this weekend, and then also telling the
- 7:58Speaker 6: press corps that Trump's case was worse than his own
- 8:01Speaker 6: doctors had just said during a briefing at Walter Reed, right?
- 8:04Speaker 6: And the honest answer is no Trump White House chief
- 8:07Speaker 6: of staff right now could do much to contain the
- 8:09Speaker 6: virus when his boss doesn't really want him to, right?
- 8:12Speaker 6: Trump doesn't want to contain it. He wants to throw
- 8:14Speaker 6: the problem to the states and lie to people that
- 8:15Speaker 6: things are going to be okay. But if Biden was
- 8:17Speaker 6: president and the VP got COVID, the White House chief
- 8:20Speaker 6: of staff would be doing contact tracing, or at least
- 8:22Speaker 6: having someone do it. They'd be quarantining people who were exposed.
- 8:25Speaker 6: And most importantly, they'd be working with Congress to pass
- 8:28Speaker 6: a coronavirus relief bill that included an actual plan to
- 8:32Speaker 6: deal with this. But instead, Mark Meadows- is arguing that
- 8:35Speaker 6: Mike Pence is, quote, essential personnel, which is essential is
- 8:39Speaker 6: a word that has never been used to describe Mike Pence,
- 8:42Speaker 6: not in the White House, not as a governor. And
- 8:44Speaker 6: they're sending him back out onto the campaign trail to
- 8:46Speaker 6: continue to just spread his gift of this virus. All
- 8:50Speaker 6: across the country. So yes, Mark Meadows, not the best
- 8:53Speaker 6: White House chief of staff in history. Maybe not the worst.
- 8:55Speaker 5: Love it. The CDC says if you've been exposed, you
- 8:58Speaker 5: should quarantine for 14 days unless you're a critical infrastructure worker.
- 9:02Speaker 5: Those are the specific words in the CDC guidelines. Is
- 9:05Speaker 5: Mike Pence holding maskless super spreader rallies? Is that critical
- 9:08Speaker 5: infrastructure work?
- 9:10Speaker 3: It isn't, right? Doing a PR. It's a PR campaign.
- 9:13Speaker 3: A campaign is a PR campaign. He's doing PR events.
- 9:15Speaker 2: No.
- 9:16Speaker 3: Famously- Vice presidents have told great jokes about it since
- 9:19Speaker 3: our founding that their job is the least essential. The
- 9:22Speaker 3: only requirements of him are to be alive, be alive,
- 9:25Speaker 3: and break ties in the Senate. That's why he exists.
- 9:29Speaker 5: You know- And he's not doing a good job with
- 9:31Speaker 5: the first one.
- 9:32Speaker 3: No, he's not.
- 9:33Speaker 4: He's not.
- 9:34Speaker 3: So he should obviously be- You know, everybody on the set,
- 9:37Speaker 3: that 60 Minutes interview, a lot of the focus has
- 9:39Speaker 3: been on Trump walking out.
- 9:40Speaker 5: Fine.
- 9:41Speaker 3: I understand why that is. But there's actually, I think,
- 9:43Speaker 3: a pretty chilling moment right after when Mike Pence sits down.
- 9:46Speaker 3: It tells you something, I think, about how we got
- 9:48Speaker 3: into this mess. Basically, you know, Leslie Stahl says to
- 9:52Speaker 3: Mike Pence, do you think Fauci's an idiot? And he's like, oh, well,
- 9:56Speaker 3: the president's got broad shoulders, you know?
- 9:58Speaker 2: And then....
- 10:00Speaker 3: Then he says, she says to Mike Pence, what should
- 10:04Speaker 3: families do about Thanksgiving? And he says, oh, Thanksgiving, it's
- 10:07Speaker 3: a wonderful time of the year. And I'm looking forward
- 10:09Speaker 3: to spending it with my family. And she's like, well,
- 10:11Speaker 3: what should people do? What's safe? What's not safe? And
- 10:13Speaker 3: he's like, well, each family needs to make a decision
- 10:16Speaker 3: on their own about what the right thing to do is.
- 10:17Speaker 3: But I know that it's a wonderful time of year.
- 10:20Speaker 3: You know, there have been incredible policy failures on coronavirus.
- 10:22Speaker 4: We all know that.
- 10:23Speaker 3: Incredible failures to invoke presidential authority, to make PPE, to
- 10:27Speaker 3: contain the spread of the virus. their failure to be
- 10:30Speaker 3: moral leaders throughout this. Pence is just as guilty of
- 10:33Speaker 3: that as Donald Trump. He may say it with a
- 10:35Speaker 3: kind of smoother tone of voice, but Mike Pence should
- 10:38Speaker 3: be isolating himself and he should address the country and say,
- 10:41Speaker 3: because the virus is uncontained, this is the right thing
- 10:45Speaker 3: to do so that we can have holidays, so that
- 10:46Speaker 3: kids can go back to school, so that seniors who
- 10:49Speaker 3: are abandoning Trump in droves because they see just how
- 10:52Speaker 3: reckless these people have been and how much they have
- 10:53Speaker 3: failed to contain the virus to let them go back
- 10:55Speaker 3: to their lives and see their grandchildren so that they
- 10:57Speaker 3: could go and be part of their families this Christmas.
- 10:59Speaker 3: you know, fundamentally, like what these people are doing, you know,
- 11:04Speaker 3: they're stealing Christmas from people. That's what they're doing because
- 11:06Speaker 3: Melania hates it. And it was her plan from the beginning.
- 11:10Speaker 5: I mean, it doesn't it just we don't have to
- 11:12Speaker 5: have this dark winter, right?
- 11:14Speaker 2: Right.
- 11:14Speaker 5: We keep glossing over because like the Trump administration is
- 11:17Speaker 5: so fucking incompetent, like what we could actually be doing here.
- 11:21Speaker 5: Scott Gottlieb, who was the FDA commissioner for a time
- 11:24Speaker 5: under Trump, wrote an op-ed that said, he said, it's
- 11:27Speaker 5: time for a national mask mandate. Anthony Fauci has been
- 11:30Speaker 5: saying this too, you know, it was like, tell all
- 11:32Speaker 5: the states to do it. And if they don't do it,
- 11:34Speaker 5: then we have to mandate it, right? You have a
- 11:35Speaker 5: national mask mandate. You, you know, Tommy talked about sort
- 11:39Speaker 5: of passing a COVID relief bill, which is absolutely right.
- 11:42Speaker 5: I think at this point, we've realized that for bars,
- 11:45Speaker 5: for indoor restaurants, we need to like have a bailout
- 11:48Speaker 5: for bars and indoor restaurants until we have treatments and vaccines,
- 11:52Speaker 5: because like we should almost never be opening bars and
- 11:54Speaker 5: indoor restaurants while the virus is raging. More resources for
- 11:58Speaker 5: rapid testing, other safety precautions at businesses and schools, right?
- 12:02Speaker 5: Like I saw Andy Slavitt, who worked in the Obama
- 12:05Speaker 5: White House with us on healthcare issues, talk about how
- 12:07Speaker 5: like Two different colleges, the difference between an outbreak at
- 12:10Speaker 5: one and not having an outbreak at another was at
- 12:12Speaker 5: one college, they test everyone in the college every week
- 12:15Speaker 5: all the time. There's access to free rapid testing, and
- 12:18Speaker 5: they just haven't had bad outbreaks. At the other one,
- 12:20Speaker 5: they don't do testing. Horrible outbreak, right? So free rapid
- 12:24Speaker 5: testing exists. It's just not all over the country yet.
- 12:26Speaker 5: These are the things that the Trump administration could have
- 12:29Speaker 5: done and could still do to prevent a horrible, horrible winter.
- 12:33Speaker 6: And so we're opting for a hot zone winter. In
- 12:36Speaker 6: honor of Megan Thee Stallion. They've given up. It's not
- 12:40Speaker 6: a joke to say Mark Meadows is waving the white flag.
- 12:42Speaker 6: That's exactly what they're doing.
- 12:45Speaker 5: And you know what?
- 12:45Speaker 3: Just one other small point about this too. It's control
- 12:47Speaker 3: is not a switch you flip on and off, right?
- 12:50Speaker 3: You're right. This virus is hard to contain, right? There
- 12:53Speaker 3: will be outbreaks. There will be states that get worse.
- 12:55Speaker 3: Like even if you do everything right, Europe, some places
- 12:57Speaker 3: have done everything right. And it's really hard. But doing enough,
- 13:00Speaker 3: doing better... saves thousands of lives.
- 13:03Speaker 4: Step one is trying.
- 13:05Speaker 3: Untold pain, try, try. Of course we should be trying.
- 13:08Speaker 5: So let's talk about how this is playing out on
- 13:10Speaker 5: the campaign trail. Joe Biden gave a major speech on
- 13:12Speaker 5: Friday about his COVID plan and spent the weekend calling
- 13:14Speaker 5: out Trump's mismanagement of the pandemic, while Trump spent the
- 13:17Speaker 5: weekend complaining that the virus is getting too much media coverage.
- 13:20Speaker 5: Here's some clips.
- 13:21Speaker 1: It was as if he decided to go on offense
- 13:25Speaker 1: for the virus, holding rallies with no masks, no social distancing.
- 13:32Speaker 1: where people contracted the virus, inviting the virus into the
- 13:36Speaker 1: White House, hosting what Dr. Fauci called super-spreader event, endangering
- 13:43Speaker 1: more people's lives by telling the public, don't worry, don't
- 13:47Speaker 1: worry about the disease, don't let it dominate you. How
- 13:53Speaker 1: many people from Kristen in Arizona will end up suffering
- 13:58Speaker 1: because their loved one listened to the President?
- 14:01Speaker 4: And we're rounding the turn. You know, all they want
- 14:03Speaker 4: to talk about is COVID. By the way, on November 4th,
- 14:06Speaker 4: you won't be hearing so much about it.
- 14:08Speaker 2: COVID, COVID, COVID. COVID.
- 14:13Speaker 1: Today, let's talk about COVID all over Europe, right?
- 14:16Speaker 4: Europe's like, they don't talk about that.
- 14:18Speaker 3: Now we're rounding the turn and we have the vaccines
- 14:20Speaker 3: coming out very soon.
- 14:22Speaker 5: COVID, COVID, COVID. Complaining that Americans who die from COVID
- 14:25Speaker 5: are getting too much media coverage doesn't sound like the
- 14:27Speaker 5: most compelling closing argument, does it, Tommy?
- 14:29Speaker 7: No, it doesn't.
- 14:30Speaker 6: I mean, also, like he is directly contributing to the outbreaks.
- 14:34Speaker 6: USA Today had an interesting piece that traced a number
- 14:38Speaker 6: of local outbreaks, specifically back to Trump campaign events. So
- 14:41Speaker 6: they're not just harming us with their message. They're harming
- 14:44Speaker 6: us with their events. But for me, this is much
- 14:47Speaker 6: bigger than their COVID handling. It is about Trump leaning
- 14:52Speaker 6: way too hard into the Marsha, Marsha, Marsha joke construction,
- 14:56Speaker 6: because I don't think he's referencing the 1995 Brady Bunch movie.
- 15:01Speaker 6: I think he is talking about the original show from
- 15:04Speaker 6: the late 60s and 70s, which I'm sorry, that's just
- 15:06Speaker 6: not going to land. He did it at the debate too.
- 15:09Speaker 6: He did the Russia, Russia, Russia thing No one knows
- 15:12Speaker 6: what he's talking about.
- 15:12Speaker 5: Like, it's 2020, man.
- 15:14Speaker 6: You're like a bitter old asshole Republican white guy from
- 15:17Speaker 6: New York. At least quote Seinfeld, right? Like, update this
- 15:21Speaker 6: repertoire a little bit. Do you think he even knows
- 15:24Speaker 6: that he's quoting the Brady Bunch?
- 15:25Speaker 4: Has to.
- 15:25Speaker 5: Do you think he's ever watched the Brady Bunch?
- 15:26Speaker 3: Has to, right?
- 15:27Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe. I guess. I thought he was more of
- 15:29Speaker 5: like an Archie Bunker guy.
- 15:30Speaker 6: Well, yeah. In spirit, certainly.
- 15:33Speaker 5: He is Archie Bunker as our president. I mean, I
- 15:35Speaker 5: just like hearing that in the 60 Minutes interview. Like, Trump...
- 15:39Speaker 5: you know, we've talked about this before, but like in 2016,
- 15:42Speaker 5: he was at least pretending to fight on behalf of
- 15:45Speaker 5: his supporters, on behalf of people, against liberals, the elite, immigrants,
- 15:49Speaker 5: the media, whatever it may be. It's now just, he's
- 15:52Speaker 5: only fighting for Trump. He only cares about himself. He's
- 15:55Speaker 5: mad that there is coverage of a pandemic that's killing
- 15:58Speaker 5: Americans because it's taking away from positive coverage for Donald Trump.
- 16:03Speaker 5: That's where we are. He's pissed that the virus is
- 16:06Speaker 5: stealing his coverage. That's where we are right now.
- 16:10Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean, look, I think, you know, the
- 16:13Speaker 3: virus got like a pretty high powered PR firm and
- 16:18Speaker 3: has been planning a lot of like really negative stories.
- 16:20Speaker 3: And like, this is like a dirty game, right? Like
- 16:22Speaker 3: we've seen this time and again, these kind of ugly
- 16:24Speaker 3: PR campaigns run by some of the worst elements in
- 16:26Speaker 3: our society, like, like, you know, COVID or, you know, others,
- 16:30Speaker 3: you know, it's really sad.
- 16:31Speaker 2: Mm hmm.
- 16:33Speaker 5: He was, and it wasn't just that rally. He's tweeting
- 16:35Speaker 5: this morning. He's got five, six tweets this morning. COVID, COVID, COVID.
- 16:39Speaker 5: It's all COVID all the time. It's like, and this,
- 16:43Speaker 5: this whole thing, a lot of the cases, it's because
- 16:45Speaker 5: we're doing more testing and blah, blah, blah. No, no,
- 16:48Speaker 5: there's fucking hospitalizations rising in all these states. Like, like
- 16:52Speaker 5: the situation is dire in El Paso. in Wisconsin, in
- 16:56Speaker 5: South Dakota. Again, a lot of his supporters, right? Which
- 17:00Speaker 5: also goes to show you, he doesn't give a shit
- 17:02Speaker 5: about his own supporters. He doesn't give a shit about
- 17:03Speaker 5: all of us for sure, but he doesn't even care
- 17:06Speaker 5: about his own supporters that are going to these rallies.
- 17:09Speaker 5: And again, they're not just ignoring the pandemic at the
- 17:12Speaker 5: White House now, they are actively spreading it. They are
- 17:15Speaker 5: actively spreading the virus themselves.
- 17:17Speaker 3: Yeah, it's also like, I don't know who this more
- 17:19Speaker 3: testing argument is working on anymore, right? Like these numbers, like,
- 17:22Speaker 3: you know, I just don't know who this is for.
- 17:24Speaker 3: It's for his base. Um, for people that aren't seeing
- 17:27Speaker 3: the rest of the news around Trump, they're not seeing
- 17:29Speaker 3: clips of him calling Anthony Fauci disaster. They're just not
- 17:31Speaker 3: seeing the full scope of what he's been saying day
- 17:33Speaker 3: to day. But yeah, I mean, look, testing has been
- 17:35Speaker 3: going up incrementally from the beginning. It should have gone
- 17:38Speaker 3: up much faster, much sooner, but we're seeing massive spikes.
- 17:40Speaker 3: It's not from testing.
- 17:41Speaker 4: It's just a lie.
- 17:42Speaker 3: And I don't think anyone believes it. It's just a
- 17:43Speaker 3: sad reality that what he's doing is not just terrible
- 17:46Speaker 3: for the country. It's not even good politics. It's hurting everybody,
- 17:49Speaker 3: including himself.
- 17:50Speaker 5: One last question on Biden, Tommy, because we've talked about this.
- 17:54Speaker 5: He's been criticized not just by Trump and the Republicans,
- 17:56Speaker 5: but by a lot of pundits for not campaigning enough,
- 17:59Speaker 5: not doing door-to-door organizing, encouraging mail-in voting, even though it
- 18:02Speaker 5: comes with greater risk of rejected ballots. How do you
- 18:05Speaker 5: think those criticisms look? Now, a week out from the campaign.
- 18:08Speaker 6: I mean, if Biden loses, then I'll be fully on
- 18:11Speaker 6: board with all those criticisms. And if he wins, I'll
- 18:14Speaker 6: be slapping those people around on his behalf. The one
- 18:16Speaker 6: that really galls me is the criticisms of vote by
- 18:19Speaker 6: mail as if we're just talking about a strategy. We're
- 18:22Speaker 6: talking about creating a way for people to vote, especially seniors,
- 18:26Speaker 6: people who have pre-existing conditions, where they won't die. Critiquing
- 18:30Speaker 6: that as some sort of political who's up, who's down
- 18:33Speaker 6: thing really pisses me off. I do think like some
- 18:36Speaker 6: of the days that people were giving Biden shit early
- 18:38Speaker 6: on for calling a lid or not having events, he
- 18:40Speaker 6: was clearly doing debate prep. That was obviously time well spent, given,
- 18:44Speaker 6: as Lovett put it, he won three debates by attending two. Clearly,
- 18:49Speaker 6: the campaign strategy in terms of Biden's travel has been
- 18:52Speaker 6: based on minimizing the risk of catching COVID and the
- 18:55Speaker 6: risk of giving his supporters COVID. Now that we know
- 18:58Speaker 6: that 100% of the Republican ticket has gotten the disease
- 19:01Speaker 6: versus 0% of the Democratic ticket and local officials and
- 19:04Speaker 6: states are tracing outbreaks back to Trump events, I'd argue
- 19:07Speaker 6: that those concerns from the Biden camp were justified. Hey guys,
- 19:12Speaker 6: this is Tommy Vitor, you know me. Earlier in the show,
- 19:14Speaker 6: I said that Mike Pence currently has COVID and that
- 19:18Speaker 6: 100% of the ticket has COVID. I had been talking
- 19:20Speaker 6: to future me, who assumes this is going to happen
- 19:23Speaker 6: since his body guy, chief of staff, and a bunch
- 19:25Speaker 6: of other lackeys around him currently has COVID. But my bad,
- 19:29Speaker 6: as of now, Mike Pence does not have COVID. I
- 19:31Speaker 6: apologize and regret my error. All of this was Trump
- 19:35Speaker 6: trying to spend months saying that Biden had dementia or
- 19:38Speaker 6: was too low energy for the job. And then Biden
- 19:41Speaker 6: mocked the floor with him at two debates. So I
- 19:43Speaker 6: don't think it was the best strategy in hindsight. But
- 19:46Speaker 6: to your point, John, it again, it just shows how
- 19:48Speaker 6: much Trump is focused on the process in the sport
- 19:51Speaker 6: of politics, right? Like when he would get a substantive
- 19:54Speaker 6: critique at the debate about, I don't know, being tied
- 19:58Speaker 6: to Wall Street, he would come back with a rejoinder
- 20:00Speaker 6: about how he could raise more money than Biden did
- 20:02Speaker 6: if he did X, Y, or Z, right? He never
- 20:04Speaker 6: thinks about politics in terms of what people actually care about.
- 20:08Speaker 6: what they're looking for from politics, like how things, how
- 20:11Speaker 6: it might help their lives. And I think that's why
- 20:13Speaker 6: he is failing.
- 20:14Speaker 4: That's my take.
- 20:15Speaker 5: Or like, what is just the responsible thing to do?
- 20:18Speaker 5: What is the responsible way to govern as a president?
- 20:20Speaker 5: I always remember Obama saying that during the financial crisis
- 20:25Speaker 5: at the end of the 2008 campaign, what he believed
- 20:28Speaker 5: he should do is show people how he would act
- 20:30Speaker 5: as president of the United States and show people how
- 20:32Speaker 5: he would govern. And if that meant doing things that
- 20:36Speaker 5: politically short-term would might not be as popular or might
- 20:39Speaker 5: be risky or whatever it may be. You know, like
- 20:41Speaker 5: McCain tried to suspend the campaign and not go to
- 20:43Speaker 5: the debates. And then there was question about whether he
- 20:45Speaker 5: should support the financial rescue package in Congress, even though
- 20:48Speaker 5: it wasn't popular. And Obama was like, look, I have
- 20:51Speaker 5: to model the behavior that I would follow as president
- 20:54Speaker 5: of the United States that people expect me to. And
- 20:55Speaker 5: that is what Joe Biden has done during this campaign
- 20:58Speaker 5: around the pandemic, even if it gets some criticism at times,
- 21:01Speaker 5: or sometimes it wasn't necessarily as popular. And again, we'll
- 21:03Speaker 5: see how it turns out.
- 21:05Speaker 3: Yeah, stay tuned on that one.
- 21:08Speaker 5: All right, let's talk about where both campaigns have been
- 21:19Speaker 5: spending these final days. Donald Trump has been holding rallies
- 21:22Speaker 5: in states that he won by five or more points
- 21:24Speaker 5: in 2016, like Georgia and Ohio, the second district of Maine,
- 21:27Speaker 5: and the second district of Nebraska, which is also right
- 21:29Speaker 5: next to Iowa, which he won by nine points. Mike
- 21:32Speaker 5: Pence was in South Carolina and Indiana. The Trump campaign
- 21:36Speaker 5: has also been campaigning, of course, in the six most
- 21:38Speaker 5: competitive battleground states, all of which Trump won. Biden has
- 21:42Speaker 5: been campaigning in all of these states as well. Their
- 21:44Speaker 5: campaign has also been holding events in Ohio, in Georgia,
- 21:47Speaker 5: where Joe Biden will be this week, and now Texas,
- 21:49Speaker 5: where Kamala Harris will be this week. What do these
- 21:52Speaker 5: two schedules tell us about each campaign's thinking in terms
- 21:55Speaker 5: of paths to victory? Are there any states that surprised
- 21:58Speaker 5: you on either side? Love it.
- 22:00Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, well, look, we talked about a little
- 22:02Speaker 3: bit last week about, you know, when you put aside
- 22:04Speaker 3: the bluster, it's clear that the Trump campaign sees a
- 22:07Speaker 3: dwindling path and the Biden campaign, while trying to signal
- 22:10Speaker 3: nothing is for granted, some of these polls are out
- 22:11Speaker 3: of whack, like they are seeing a widening map, right?
- 22:13Speaker 3: That's why they're adding Georgia. That's why they're adding Texas.
- 22:16Speaker 3: The Nebraska and New Hampshire play from Trump tells us that, like,
- 22:21Speaker 3: they really do see, they have to assume that they're
- 22:25Speaker 3: going to surprise people with some turnout. And if that happens...
- 22:28Speaker 3: They're looking at where they can lose and still eke
- 22:30Speaker 3: out 270 electoral votes. There is a non-trivial chance of
- 22:34Speaker 3: a map in which you can see a situation where
- 22:39Speaker 3: Biden and Trump are both at basically 267 and 269
- 22:43Speaker 3: electoral votes. And it comes down to one electoral vote
- 22:45Speaker 3: in Nebraska, and one electoral vote in Maine.
- 22:50Speaker 5: Is that likely?
- 22:50Speaker 3: I don't know, but they clearly view it, right? They
- 22:53Speaker 3: want to make sure they close the deal in Iowa,
- 22:55Speaker 3: but there really is a possibility that Trump could be
- 22:58Speaker 3: at 269 electoral votes and tries to go get one
- 23:01Speaker 3: last electoral vote to knock to win by winning that
- 23:05Speaker 3: Omaha seat in Nebraska or winning that second district in Maine.
- 23:07Speaker 3: It's unlikely, sure, because any one scenario is unlikely, but
- 23:11Speaker 3: it's plausible.
- 23:12Speaker 5: It's totally plausible. Oh no, it's the scenario where Trump
- 23:15Speaker 5: wins Florida and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona.
- 23:19Speaker 5: And then like Joe Biden wins if he wins the
- 23:23Speaker 5: Nebraska second and he loses if he doesn't.
- 23:25Speaker 3: Well, John, here's what's chilling. You're totally right. I did
- 23:29Speaker 3: it a different way and got to the exact same
- 23:31Speaker 3: result because Biden can win Florida, lose Pennsylvania, lose Michigan.
- 23:35Speaker 5: Oh, yeah.
- 23:36Speaker 3: And still be in that exact same scenario. Holy fucking shit. No,
- 23:41Speaker 3: thank you. No, thank you.
- 23:44Speaker 5: So when they announced yesterday that they're sending Joe Biden
- 23:46Speaker 5: to Georgia, some people said, oh, is this smart? Because
- 23:49Speaker 5: has he locked down the rest of the map yet?
- 23:51Speaker 5: Should he really be going to Georgia? Tommy, what do
- 23:53Speaker 5: you think about that?
- 23:54Speaker 6: I mean, here are some reasons to go to Georgia, right?
- 23:57Speaker 6: They have 16 electoral votes. So you could take the
- 23:59Speaker 6: 2016 map. You could win back Michigan, Wisconsin, and then
- 24:04Speaker 6: flip Georgia. And that gets you to 274 if you're Biden.
- 24:07Speaker 6: Or you could take the 2016 map. win Arizona, Michigan,
- 24:11Speaker 6: and Georgia, that's 275. So you could lose Pennsylvania. You
- 24:14Speaker 6: could lose big states if you win Georgia. It also
- 24:18Speaker 6: has two huge Senate races. John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock
- 24:21Speaker 6: are running strong. I don't know if it's smart or not.
- 24:24Speaker 6: No one will know until we have the results, right?
- 24:26Speaker 6: I mean, remember in 2016 when the Clinton campaign made
- 24:29Speaker 6: this late October push into Arizona, they sent Michelle Obama,
- 24:32Speaker 6: they sent Bernie, they sent Hillary herself like in early November.
- 24:36Speaker 6: And in the moment, it felt like an exciting attempt
- 24:39Speaker 6: to expand the map. In hindsight, it looks like a
- 24:41Speaker 6: huge mistake because she never went to Wisconsin, right?
- 24:44Speaker 4: So we'll find out.
- 24:45Speaker 6: I have confidence that the Biden campaign is looking at
- 24:48Speaker 6: some polling that tells them Georgia is fertile ground and
- 24:51Speaker 6: that they're like, you know, relentlessly focused on 270.
- 24:54Speaker 5: But it's always a bit of a gamble.
- 24:56Speaker 6: Now, the interesting thing, just writ large, it's not just
- 24:59Speaker 6: that Trump is going to states where he's playing defense.
- 25:01Speaker 6: And he's also going to Florida a lot to his credit.
- 25:03Speaker 6: But he's also going to counties where where he has
- 25:05Speaker 6: won overwhelmingly. Like in Ohio, he went to a county
- 25:08Speaker 6: where he got 68% of the vote. In Wisconsin, he
- 25:10Speaker 6: went to Waukesha County, where he won by 30. In
- 25:13Speaker 6: North Carolina, he goes to a bright red county outside Charlotte.
- 25:16Speaker 6: Biden's travel is different. They went to Pennsylvania 10 times.
- 25:19Speaker 6: The next state is like three visits, which is Florida.
- 25:23Speaker 6: But on top of that, he's going to Bucks County.
- 25:25Speaker 6: He's going to Luzerne County, which are like basically swing
- 25:29Speaker 6: counties and swing districts, which shows that they are not
- 25:31Speaker 6: just trying to turn out base voters. Biden thinks he
- 25:33Speaker 6: can persuade people. They can turn out new suburban voters
- 25:36Speaker 6: and maybe push down Trump's vote in some of these
- 25:39Speaker 6: redder places.
- 25:40Speaker 4: So I don't know.
- 25:41Speaker 5: We'll find out.
- 25:42Speaker 6: I don't care what they do as long as they
- 25:43Speaker 6: get to 270. But I do think it's like the
- 25:45Speaker 6: candidate's time is the most important resource you have. And
- 25:48Speaker 6: if you're going to a stretch state when you don't
- 25:51Speaker 6: have others that are easier in the bag, people will
- 25:54Speaker 6: question that decision if you lose.
- 25:57Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 25:57Speaker 5: And I have to say, I think the criticisms are
- 25:59Speaker 5: a little silly because knowing the Biden campaign and how
- 26:01Speaker 5: cautious and conservative they are, when you send a candidate
- 26:03Speaker 5: to a state like that or the running mate, it's
- 26:05Speaker 5: not necessarily like, oh, we got all these other states
- 26:08Speaker 5: in the bag and we're just sitting at campaign headquarters,
- 26:10Speaker 5: you know, kicking back and having a good time. And
- 26:12Speaker 5: maybe we'll go expand the map and run up the score.
- 26:15Speaker 5: It's about giving yourself multiple paths to 270 should one
- 26:18Speaker 5: of the paths foreclose, even though you didn't expect it to.
- 26:21Speaker 2: Right.
- 26:22Speaker 5: And especially when you're talking about states in the Sun
- 26:25Speaker 5: Belt specifically, where the electorate has been changing so fast,
- 26:29Speaker 5: you just don't know what's going to happen, right? Some
- 26:31Speaker 5: states like the electorate is set and it's been set
- 26:33Speaker 5: for a while. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, those electorates don't move
- 26:36Speaker 5: too much. In Georgia, the fact that we've seen this
- 26:39Speaker 5: huge suburban shift over the last several years among white voters,
- 26:43Speaker 5: the fact that in Georgia, if 30% of the electorate
- 26:45Speaker 5: is black, as it was when Stacey Abrams passed, ran
- 26:49Speaker 5: in 2018, you combine that with a suburban shift, suddenly
- 26:51Speaker 5: Georgia's in play. Now, you know, what if something happens
- 26:55Speaker 5: in Pennsylvania, something happens in Wisconsin, they missed a surge
- 26:58Speaker 5: of white working class voters, right? And then suddenly, well,
- 27:02Speaker 5: then you have Georgia, right? So I think it's about
- 27:04Speaker 5: some of these trips are about giving yourself as many
- 27:07Speaker 5: different paths to 270 as possible, and not necessarily just
- 27:11Speaker 5: trying to play and expand the map just for fun
- 27:13Speaker 5: to run up the score.
- 27:14Speaker 3: I'd add just one small thing, too, which is that
- 27:17Speaker 3: Biden is doing a ton of events in Delaware. And,
- 27:19Speaker 3: you know, the Republicans try to make hay of that.
- 27:22Speaker 3: That's doing events in Pennsylvania, too. And it shares a
- 27:25Speaker 3: media market. He's really hitting Pennsylvania so hard. So he's
- 27:28Speaker 3: doing that as well.
- 27:29Speaker 5: Now, is it, well, follow up is like, is it
- 27:31Speaker 5: smart to send Kamala Harris to Texas? Texas is interesting
- 27:34Speaker 5: because there was a poll out this weekend that had
- 27:37Speaker 5: Joe Biden up three points. Then the New York Times
- 27:39Speaker 5: Siena poll came out this morning, has Biden down four points.
- 27:43Speaker 5: But the turnout in Texas is so large, we're going
- 27:48Speaker 5: to talk about this in a second, that like no
- 27:50Speaker 5: one knows what this electorate is going to look like there.
- 27:52Speaker 5: And of course, if Biden wins Texas, it's over.
- 27:55Speaker 4: It's tantalizing.
- 27:56Speaker 6: I mean, it's a game changer, right? At 38 electoral votes,
- 27:59Speaker 6: you could lose every state that Hillary lost in 2016,
- 28:02Speaker 6: flip Texas and get to 270. You also have MJ
- 28:05Speaker 6: Hagar running a close race against John Cornyn for that
- 28:08Speaker 6: Senate seat. Maybe even more importantly, there are all the
- 28:10Speaker 6: down ballot race's where if Democrats can flip nine Texas
- 28:15Speaker 6: statehouse seats to get a majority, that would give us
- 28:18Speaker 6: a seat at the table in the 2021 redistricting process,
- 28:21Speaker 6: which could might mean a swing of plus or minus
- 28:25Speaker 6: five congressional seats in Congress, because Republicans will try to
- 28:30Speaker 6: rewrite those maps as advantageously as possible for themselves, gerrymander
- 28:35Speaker 6: the shit out of Democrats. And so there's just like
- 28:37Speaker 6: huge stakes up and down the ballot in Texas. And
- 28:39Speaker 6: so I get like, look, I'm excited by it. I'm
- 28:42Speaker 6: watching everything Beto O'Rourke is doing. It's pretty amazing how
- 28:45Speaker 6: many calls they're making every night and how much his
- 28:48Speaker 6: organization has registered voters in that state. But I don't know.
- 28:51Speaker 6: I don't want to get sucked into this romantic fantasy
- 28:54Speaker 6: world where we win Texas and Biden potentially wins by
- 28:57Speaker 6: 400 electoral college votes and not pay attention to the
- 29:00Speaker 6: key Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania.
- 29:04Speaker 3: In 2016, Trump was like the coyote who made it
- 29:07Speaker 3: across the cliff and ate the roadrunner. Maybe 2020... Texas
- 29:12Speaker 3: has always been like Lucy in the football, but maybe
- 29:14Speaker 3: this is the time where Charlie just kicks that ball.
- 29:17Speaker 4: Just boots the thing.
- 29:19Speaker 3: Just gets it.
- 29:20Speaker 5: And that's it. I mean, even in the New York
- 29:22Speaker 5: Times poll, they showed Biden just crushing Trump in some
- 29:27Speaker 5: of these suburbs where we're already also seeing the turnout
- 29:29Speaker 5: numbers go up. What keeps him behind is that Trump
- 29:33Speaker 5: has shown improvement among more working class Latinos and black
- 29:38Speaker 5: voters in Texas. which are hard populations to poll. So
- 29:42Speaker 5: it's who knows. But, you know, the difference with Texas
- 29:46Speaker 5: and Georgia is Texas is much more expensive to play
- 29:48Speaker 5: seriously there.
- 29:49Speaker 6: Right.
- 29:49Speaker 5: This is when I talked to Stacey Abrams. Way back when,
- 29:52Speaker 5: she always likes to say that Georgia is a cheap
- 29:54Speaker 5: date because it's a little easier to compete there and
- 29:57Speaker 5: it's closer than Texas, which is very close.
- 30:00Speaker 6: Well, 50% of voters currently registered to vote in Texas
- 30:02Speaker 6: have never voted in that state or vote infrequently. So
- 30:06Speaker 6: just a very confusing state. It's hard to read. That's
- 30:09Speaker 6: why I'm not letting myself get excited about this early
- 30:12Speaker 6: vote data or literally any other because who knows.
- 30:16Speaker 5: Well, let's talk about early voting. November 3rd is technically
- 30:19Speaker 5: Election Day, but over 60 million people have already voted
- 30:22Speaker 5: by mail or in person. That represents 43% of the
- 30:26Speaker 5: ballots cast in the entire 2016 election, and we still
- 30:30Speaker 5: have eight days of early voting to go. Texas is
- 30:33Speaker 5: leading the way here with 80% of its 2016 turnout.
- 30:36Speaker 5: Of the states that report party registration, we can see
- 30:39Speaker 5: that 49% of early votes have been cast by registered Democrats,
- 30:42Speaker 5: 28% by registered Republicans, 22% by voters with no party
- 30:46Speaker 5: affiliation and 0.6% by voters with a minor party affiliation.
- 30:51Speaker 5: We got a lot of listener questions about this. Lovett,
- 30:53Speaker 5: what can the early vote tell us about the outcome
- 30:55Speaker 5: of the race and why?
- 30:57Speaker 3: So here's my position. Basically nothing. Basically nothing. We know
- 31:03Speaker 3: one thing. We know one thing. There's going to be
- 31:06Speaker 3: a historic turnout in this election. That's the one thing
- 31:10Speaker 3: I think we can really say with certainty. We don't
- 31:12Speaker 3: know ultimately what the party breakdown will be. We went
- 31:15Speaker 3: into this, you know, we talked about this for so
- 31:18Speaker 3: long that there's a real bias towards Democrats and Democrat
- 31:21Speaker 3: leaning voters voting early and Republicans and Republican leaning voters
- 31:24Speaker 3: voting on election day because the media that we consume
- 31:27Speaker 3: is different. And one side has been honest about the
- 31:29Speaker 3: pandemic and the other has been telling people it's a
- 31:31Speaker 3: liberal hoax and it's overblown. And a bunch of Republicans
- 31:34Speaker 3: are planning to vote on election day. We also don't
- 31:36Speaker 3: know how many Democrats are people that have actually are
- 31:40Speaker 3: Democrats in name only who voted for Trump in 2016
- 31:42Speaker 3: and are going to vote for Trump now. We don't
- 31:44Speaker 3: know what some of the breakdowns of these independents will be.
- 31:46Speaker 3: We also don't know the impact of what happens when
- 31:49Speaker 3: there's a ton of reporting saying, holy shit, there's huge
- 31:51Speaker 3: Democratic early vote. We don't know how any of this
- 31:54Speaker 3: is going to play out because we've never voted in
- 31:56Speaker 3: a pandemic with this much vote early and vote by
- 31:58Speaker 3: mail before. So I see it only as a sign
- 32:02Speaker 3: of huge turnout. And beyond that, I think we should
- 32:04Speaker 3: take nothing for granted and draw no conclusions.
- 32:07Speaker 5: Tommy? Yeah. You got anything to add?
- 32:09Speaker 4: No, I think it's right.
- 32:09Speaker 6: There's some states, there's some early voting data that makes
- 32:12Speaker 6: me excited. I think North Carolina is an example. There's
- 32:15Speaker 6: some where it's a little worrisome, frankly. Florida Republicans seem
- 32:19Speaker 6: to be chipping into the Democratic early vote lead, and
- 32:21Speaker 6: they historically turn out more on election day. So I think, yeah,
- 32:26Speaker 6: every minute people spend trying to interpret this data is
- 32:28Speaker 6: probably time better spent doing literally anything else, including making
- 32:32Speaker 6: calls into swing states, because who the fuck knows?
- 32:36Speaker 5: And I'll just I'll tell you guys why for people
- 32:38Speaker 5: who are wondering this, like the party registration numbers aren't
- 32:43Speaker 5: very helpful, particularly. And I'll just use Florida as an example.
- 32:46Speaker 5: So Florida right now, the you know, it tells you
- 32:51Speaker 5: the early vote absentee voting by party registration. So 42
- 32:55Speaker 5: it's 42 percent Democrats, 36.5 percent Republicans, 21 percent what
- 33:00Speaker 5: they call NPAs in Florida, non-party affiliated voters.
- 33:03Speaker 4: Right.
- 33:04Speaker 5: So you think, OK. That's sort of a small lead
- 33:06Speaker 5: for Democrats, but not great, whatever. So there's a Florida
- 33:09Speaker 5: CBS poll over the weekend. And among those who voted early,
- 33:14Speaker 5: it's Joe Biden up 61-37. Well, that's much bigger than
- 33:18Speaker 5: that party registration breakdown I just read.
- 33:20Speaker 2: Why?
- 33:21Speaker 5: Because Biden wins NPAs by 15 points and he takes
- 33:23Speaker 5: 10% of Republicans. Now, will Biden really do that? It's
- 33:26Speaker 5: one poll. It's in line with some other polls, so
- 33:29Speaker 5: it's possible. It could be off a little bit too,
- 33:31Speaker 5: but it's the example of why the party registration breakdown
- 33:35Speaker 5: can't really tell you anything, especially in a race where
- 33:38Speaker 5: Joe Biden is consistently in the polling, been winning over
- 33:42Speaker 5: so many independents and even more Republicans than Trump is
- 33:45Speaker 5: winning over Democrats, right? So we don't know. That's why
- 33:49Speaker 5: when you look at all the party registration numbers, and
- 33:51Speaker 5: we don't know the party breakdown or the candidate breakdown
- 33:54Speaker 5: of who's left to vote.
- 33:56Speaker 3: And by the way, one thing we've talked about over
- 33:57Speaker 3: and over again is that there's been this huge shift
- 33:59Speaker 3: of seniors, right? A huge shift of seniors who may
- 34:01Speaker 3: have voted for Trump in 2016 and may vote for
- 34:03Speaker 3: Joe Biden. Now, what is their party affiliation? What is
- 34:05Speaker 3: the breakdown of the kind of senior who might have
- 34:07Speaker 3: voted for Trump and now will vote for Biden? Are
- 34:08Speaker 3: they independents? Are they Republicans? Are they Democrats? We just
- 34:12Speaker 3: don't know.
- 34:12Speaker 4: We don't know.
- 34:13Speaker 5: Yeah. And I will say, too, what it can tell
- 34:16Speaker 5: us and what especially it can tell campaigns and why
- 34:19Speaker 5: campaigns like early voting data is that it tells you
- 34:22Speaker 5: how many of our voters still haven't voted yet. How
- 34:24Speaker 5: many people with ballots haven't returned them yet? How many
- 34:27Speaker 5: people still need to make a plan to get to
- 34:29Speaker 5: the polls? So as the voting universe shrinks because a
- 34:32Speaker 5: bunch of people started voting, if you see numbers that
- 34:34Speaker 5: are concerning, oh, we don't have much Dem turnout in
- 34:37Speaker 5: Miami-Dade County. Now you can focus on those neighborhoods where
- 34:41Speaker 5: you know those voters are and start making calls and
- 34:43Speaker 5: getting people to return their ballots. So for campaigns, it
- 34:45Speaker 5: can be useful. For predicting the outcome of the race,
- 34:48Speaker 5: it is not. Another question we got from quite a
- 34:51Speaker 5: few listeners is what to expect while watching returns on
- 34:53Speaker 5: election night. Aside from abject terror. Someone want to talk
- 35:00Speaker 5: about like just watching returns on election night and which
- 35:04Speaker 5: states we might know soon and which states we might
- 35:06Speaker 5: not and all that for listeners.
- 35:08Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll just say, I'll say that I will, look,
- 35:11Speaker 3: I have a lot of anxiety and I, for me
- 35:14Speaker 3: on election night, it will be the shape of Florida.
- 35:16Speaker 3: It will be, that will be the shape of it.
- 35:18Speaker 3: It will be, it's a miasma. It's actually visible. It's like,
- 35:20Speaker 3: like kind of greenish, but it will form into the
- 35:22Speaker 3: shape of Florida and I'll be watching Florida. Can we
- 35:24Speaker 3: win without Florida?
- 35:25Speaker 2: Sure.
- 35:26Speaker 3: But because they'll have counted a lot of their early
- 35:28Speaker 3: vote and vote by mail, we may know Florida relatively early.
- 35:31Speaker 3: And as we've talked about many times, Trump's path narrows dramatically.
- 35:35Speaker 3: If we have Florida, similar, I will also be watching Colorado,
- 35:38Speaker 3: also be watching Arizona. There's a chance early in the night,
- 35:41Speaker 3: we might know the results there. And if we do,
- 35:43Speaker 3: we kind of have a sense of where this is going.
- 35:45Speaker 3: Does that mean that's what's going to happen?
- 35:46Speaker 4: Of course not.
- 35:47Speaker 3: Does it mean if some of these things look worse,
- 35:48Speaker 3: the night is over? No, the night is just much,
- 35:50Speaker 3: much worse emotionally.
- 35:54Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, here's the very 2020 part that's
- 35:58Speaker 5: quite tricky. All the swing states that are hardest for
- 36:01Speaker 5: Joe Biden, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas are
- 36:06Speaker 5: the ones who count first and count on election night.
- 36:10Speaker 5: Don't won't delay the count. In addition, those states all
- 36:14Speaker 5: may start by showing Biden in the lead because they
- 36:17Speaker 5: dump vote by mail early vote first. And so when
- 36:20Speaker 5: the polls close in those states, it could show a
- 36:23Speaker 5: big Biden lead. And then Trump starts eating into his
- 36:26Speaker 5: lead with election day votes. The states that should be
- 36:29Speaker 5: easiest for Biden, at least according to the polling, Michigan, Pennsylvania,
- 36:32Speaker 5: and Wisconsin, are all going to take a couple of
- 36:35Speaker 5: days because they can't count the mail ballots until the
- 36:38Speaker 5: day of the election or in Michigan the day before.
- 36:40Speaker 5: And they could all show Trump in the lead as
- 36:43Speaker 5: polls close because they will dump the election day votes
- 36:46Speaker 5: first and then start counting the mail ballots in the
- 36:48Speaker 5: days after. So everyone's just got to sit tight. Like
- 36:54Speaker 5: you said, love it. We win one of those in
- 36:56Speaker 5: the first column, like a Florida, a North Carolina, a Texas. Yeah,
- 37:01Speaker 5: it's probably over, right?
- 37:02Speaker 3: But if we don't- Hey, wait a second. Knock on something.
- 37:05Speaker 3: Throw something over your shoulder. I don't want to hear
- 37:07Speaker 3: probably over. Just emotionally, just saying it's probably over.
- 37:10Speaker 5: If we win Texas on election.
- 37:12Speaker 3: Night, it is over.
- 37:13Speaker 5: I'll say that.
- 37:14Speaker 4: I'll give you that.
- 37:14Speaker 5: If we win Florida, I'm like 99% sure it's over.
- 37:18Speaker 3: Here's the thing. Here's something. If we win Texas, and
- 37:21Speaker 3: again- Who knows? And I want this clip to have
- 37:26Speaker 3: plenty of caveats in it when it's used against us.
- 37:29Speaker 4: In the future.
- 37:30Speaker 3: But if we win Texas, one thing to look forward
- 37:32Speaker 3: to is Republicans deciding they want to abolish the Electoral
- 37:34Speaker 3: College and us being like, but this has been part
- 37:36Speaker 3: of our country from the beginning. Shame on all of you.
- 37:39Speaker 6: Shame on all of you.
- 37:40Speaker 2: All right.
- 37:41Speaker 5: We've got a few other listener questions. Victoria Rome asks,
- 37:44Speaker 5: I feel like there's a lot of grassroots work for
- 37:46Speaker 5: Biden with phone banking and text banking and more. Are
- 37:48Speaker 5: the Republicans also doing this? Do they have the same
- 37:50Speaker 5: volunteer enthusiasm that we do?
- 37:51Speaker 7: Tommy?
- 37:52Speaker 6: Probably. We should assume they do. I mean, they're also
- 37:55Speaker 6: doing more in-person canvassing. They're actually physically knocking on doors. Now,
- 38:00Speaker 6: I think all the conversation about Who's doing what field
- 38:05Speaker 6: work is a little bit confusing, because even if the
- 38:07Speaker 6: Biden campaign proper isn't doing like door to door, actual
- 38:11Speaker 6: door knocking, some groups are in key states. So I'm
- 38:15Speaker 6: a little I feel like no one really has a
- 38:17Speaker 6: handle on the aggregate amount of field work doing. So
- 38:20Speaker 6: I guess just don't stress it, but assume they have
- 38:22Speaker 6: a huge turnout operation. Assume they're mobilizing people in churches,
- 38:26Speaker 6: that people are hitting doors, that they're making calls like
- 38:28Speaker 6: we just.
- 38:28Speaker 4: Got to outwork them.
- 38:30Speaker 5: Yeah, we've been saying this the whole year, last year too.
- 38:34Speaker 5: Assume that Trump is going to get his turnout from
- 38:36Speaker 5: 2016 and maybe add a few percentage points in each
- 38:40Speaker 5: of the swing states. Republicans are going... And so far,
- 38:44Speaker 5: everything in the early vote, again, you don't know what
- 38:46Speaker 5: it means for vote share for each candidate, but in
- 38:49Speaker 5: terms of registered Republicans, they're turning out. So are Democrats,
- 38:52Speaker 5: but Republicans are turning out too. And we should assume
- 38:54Speaker 5: they have sky-high enthusiasm for their fucking MAGA god.
- 38:59Speaker 3: The biggest story... that didn't get enough attention out of
- 39:02Speaker 3: 2018 is that the Republican turnout was there. Beto O'Rourke
- 39:06Speaker 3: hit his numbers and he still lost because more Republicans
- 39:08Speaker 3: showed up than anybody expected. We should assume that that
- 39:11Speaker 3: is the case.
- 39:12Speaker 2: Yep.
- 39:13Speaker 5: Angela Berthold asks, I may have a dumb question. Ask
- 39:16Speaker 5: it anyway, Angela. Why don't candidates make more visits to
- 39:19Speaker 5: smaller towns in states? I realize there are more people
- 39:22Speaker 5: living in larger cities, more bang for your buck, but
- 39:24Speaker 5: it's the rural areas that tend to vote Republican. I
- 39:27Speaker 5: wonder if a candidate visit would help rally support, especially
- 39:29Speaker 5: in mid states like Wisconsin and Minnesota. Yeah.
- 39:33Speaker 6: At this point in the campaign, you should assume that
- 39:35Speaker 6: both campaigns have county by county turnout projections that they're
- 39:39Speaker 6: trying to hit. And some of those numbers will be
- 39:42Speaker 6: based on like field targets, like how many door docks,
- 39:44Speaker 6: how many people are telling them on the phones that
- 39:47Speaker 6: they're voting for Biden or Trump. Some of it will
- 39:49Speaker 6: be based on early vote, and they're going to choose
- 39:50Speaker 6: where they go accordingly. It does seem like in the aggregate,
- 39:54Speaker 6: Trump is much more focused on turning out his base,
- 39:57Speaker 6: whereas Biden is a little more focused on suppressing his
- 40:00Speaker 6: margins in the redder counties and getting swing voters out.
- 40:04Speaker 6: But yeah, I mean, look, these are data-driven decisions usually.
- 40:07Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 40:08Speaker 5: One example, and I'll use in Pennsylvania, it used to
- 40:12Speaker 5: be that Democrats believe they could win Pennsylvania only by
- 40:16Speaker 5: showing up in Pittsburgh, showing up in Philadelphia, like running
- 40:20Speaker 5: up the margins there and in the inner suburbs. And
- 40:23Speaker 5: that was it. And they didn't have to go anywhere else.
- 40:24Speaker 5: That's what Hillary did. And she actually got the margins
- 40:28Speaker 5: that she needed out of Philadelphia and still lost the state.
- 40:31Speaker 5: Biden has been like, he was, you know, right after
- 40:33Speaker 5: the convention, his first stop was in Greensburg, which is
- 40:38Speaker 5: right outside of Pittsburgh. It's a suburb outside of Pittsburgh.
- 40:41Speaker 5: And he's been going to Erie and he's been going
- 40:42Speaker 5: to Scranton, right? So, He has actually been going to
- 40:45Speaker 5: some of these, I wouldn't call them small towns because
- 40:47Speaker 5: they're like small cities, but some of the places in
- 40:50Speaker 5: these redder states that Trump won just to sort of
- 40:54Speaker 5: cut the margins down a little bit. Even if he
- 40:56Speaker 5: ends up losing Erie County, Luzerne County, all those places,
- 41:00Speaker 5: like he could lose them in Pennsylvania, but if he
- 41:02Speaker 5: loses them by less, that's enough to win the state. Um,
- 41:06Speaker 5: Brett Turner asks, hello, Obama had all three branches, Democrat
- 41:12Speaker 5: in 2008 to 2010, but couldn't fix a lot of issues.
- 41:15Speaker 5: What were the obstacles and do they still exist now?
- 41:18Speaker 5: Thanks for everything. Love it. Yeah.
- 41:21Speaker 3: Well, what a question.
- 41:23Speaker 6: Yeah, sure.
- 41:23Speaker 3: I'll take it.
- 41:24Speaker 4: I'll take it.
- 41:24Speaker 3: So here's what I would say. Here's what I would say.
- 41:27Speaker 3: First of all, the first two years of the Obama
- 41:29Speaker 3: administration were probably the most productive years. period of governing
- 41:32Speaker 3: via Congress, uh, in 50 years, uh, there was the
- 41:36Speaker 3: passage of a recovery act, a healthcare bill, a student
- 41:39Speaker 3: loan bill, uh, among other, an equal pay bill. Um,
- 41:43Speaker 3: you know, with Obamacare specifically, you know, Obama had that, uh,
- 41:49Speaker 3: had a big majority in the Senate, but those weren't
- 41:51Speaker 3: all people who had signed on, uh, for the Obama agenda.
- 41:55Speaker 3: These were a lot of moderates that are now in
- 41:57Speaker 3: some of these receipts, we've lost some of these, uh,
- 41:59Speaker 3: seats that are now Republicans. But the challenge in the
- 42:02Speaker 3: early days of the Obama administration, even with a big majority,
- 42:05Speaker 3: was getting some of the more moderate Democrats who'd been
- 42:07Speaker 3: around a long time to get to 60. You know,
- 42:09Speaker 3: we've talked a lot about Joe Lieberman. A lot of
- 42:11Speaker 3: people try to blame Joe Lieberman specifically for killing the
- 42:14Speaker 3: public option. It actually wasn't him. It was a bunch.
- 42:17Speaker 3: of conservative Democrats who killed the public option. Lieberman just- Wow.
- 42:21Speaker 5: Tune into Pod Save America today to hear Lovett give
- 42:23Speaker 5: a spirited defense of Joe Lieberman.
- 42:25Speaker 3: Now, Joe Lieberman personally killed the Medicare buy-in, which is
- 42:28Speaker 3: currently still not law. It's what actually Biden has included
- 42:31Speaker 3: in his health plan so there can be a Medicare
- 42:33Speaker 3: buy-in for people over 60. Lieberman personally killed that and
- 42:36Speaker 3: raised healthcare costs for everybody and is a genuine monster.
- 42:40Speaker 3: But I think one of the lessons of those two
- 42:43Speaker 3: years is that The focus was on health care and
- 42:45Speaker 3: the recovery and some other big priorities. But things that
- 42:48Speaker 3: didn't happen in that period, immigration, voting, some legislation on
- 42:53Speaker 3: unions were the kind of steps we could have taken
- 42:55Speaker 3: to not just do really good progressive change for the country,
- 42:59Speaker 3: but also make America more democratic and help make sure
- 43:02Speaker 3: that people have a better say in how they are
- 43:03Speaker 3: governed and how their offices are governed. And that, I think,
- 43:06Speaker 3: ultimately was a missed opportunity. But it was in the
- 43:09Speaker 3: midst of a massive financial crisis and Every administration has
- 43:13Speaker 3: to make choices and only so much progress can happen
- 43:16Speaker 3: in a short period of time when you're dealing with
- 43:17Speaker 3: a recalcitrant wing of your own party.
- 43:20Speaker 6: I would just say, I think the lesson from that
- 43:22Speaker 6: period of time for Joe Biden, if he wins, if
- 43:24Speaker 6: we take back the Senate, is move fast, use your
- 43:27Speaker 6: power swiftly and brutally and do all the things you
- 43:30Speaker 6: want to do, especially in including a voting rights, voting
- 43:34Speaker 6: access bill that will unfuck some of these problems we're
- 43:38Speaker 6: having right now, voter suppression and gerrymandering and all the
- 43:40Speaker 6: ways Republicans are trying to lock in minority rule. But
- 43:43Speaker 6: that's why I think people get so frustrated when you
- 43:47Speaker 6: hear about a blue ribbon commission on this or giving
- 43:51Speaker 6: Mitch McConnell some time on the filibuster. They're just going
- 43:53Speaker 6: to try to wait out the clock while big insurance
- 43:56Speaker 6: companies and fossil fuel companies pour hundreds of millions of
- 44:00Speaker 6: dollars into some astroturf firm to prevent climate change legislation
- 44:04Speaker 6: from happening or prevent the public option from being expanded,
- 44:07Speaker 6: et cetera, et cetera. And I think they just got
- 44:08Speaker 6: to move fast.
- 44:11Speaker 5: Got to get rid of that filibuster right away. Looking
- 44:14Speaker 5: at you, Joe Manchin, looking at you, Kyrsten Sinema, looking
- 44:17Speaker 5: at you, freshman class of 2020 Democratic senators who come
- 44:21Speaker 5: from largely red states and are going to want to
- 44:23Speaker 5: be fairly moderate. You have a choice. You either come
- 44:26Speaker 5: to Congress and then be able to tell your constituents
- 44:29Speaker 5: you did something and you passed something, or you come
- 44:31Speaker 5: to Congress and say, Mitch McConnell blocked everything and I
- 44:34Speaker 5: couldn't do anything. They're not gonna like that excuse as much.
- 44:37Speaker 3: I also think- That's it. Like on that specific, first
- 44:40Speaker 3: of all, we've got 180 days on a blue ribbon
- 44:41Speaker 3: panel to figure out the judiciary. So we gave, that's
- 44:45Speaker 3: one- That's one delay on the filibuster.
- 44:48Speaker 5: You could probably work overtime to shorten that window. Maybe
- 44:50Speaker 5: start in the transition. Maybe put some extra hours in.
- 44:55Speaker 3: Come on, Charles Freed or whoever's on that thing.
- 44:58Speaker 4: Let's go.
- 44:58Speaker 3: We're going to work weekends.
- 44:59Speaker 2: All right.
- 44:59Speaker 3: Climate change is real. I also think that this issue
- 45:01Speaker 3: of the filibuster, similar to adding justice to the court,
- 45:04Speaker 3: is this sort of philosophical or process question. But it
- 45:06Speaker 3: won't be come January when we're talking about whether or
- 45:09Speaker 3: not we pass a big relief plan or a climate
- 45:12Speaker 3: plan or a health care plan. And then I think
- 45:14Speaker 3: people can force to choose between a Senate procedure for
- 45:17Speaker 3: saving the country's economy, I think the skids get a
- 45:20Speaker 3: bit greased for getting rid of some of these hurdles.
- 45:23Speaker 5: I think.
- 45:23Speaker 4: Hope so.
- 45:24Speaker 5: And I will just say, I almost didn't want to
- 45:26Speaker 5: talk about this question because it's like a high class
- 45:28Speaker 5: problem to have because it imagines that we win, but
- 45:31Speaker 5: it should push everyone in this final week that like,
- 45:33Speaker 5: this is the future we could have. These are the
- 45:36Speaker 5: arguments we could be having if everyone turns in your ballots.
- 45:39Speaker 6: And the Senate is just as crucial to this whole
- 45:41Speaker 6: thing as the presidency, so.
- 45:44Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 45:44Speaker 4: All right.
- 45:45Speaker 5: When we come back, Tommy's interview with Wisconsin organizer Dakota Hall.
- 45:58Speaker 6: I'm now joined by the executive director of the Wisconsin-based
- 46:01Speaker 6: youth organizing group Leaders Igniting Transformation, Dakota Hall. Dakota, welcome
- 46:05Speaker 6: to Pod Save America.
- 46:06Speaker 7: Hey, thank you so much. I'm glad to be here
- 46:08Speaker 7: and really excited about the next few days ahead of us.
- 46:11Speaker 6: Yeah, you guys are kicking ass out there. So your group,
- 46:15Speaker 6: Leaders Igniting Transformation, or LIT, for you old folks at home,
- 46:18Speaker 6: you guys do issue-based and electoral organizing. What issues are
- 46:23Speaker 6: resonating most? What's motivating people to go out and vote?
- 46:26Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, what we're finding is one of the
- 46:28Speaker 7: number one issues in Wisconsin is education. And that's K-12,
- 46:31Speaker 7: that's higher education. We actually just got a poll back
- 46:35Speaker 7: that said almost 90% of young people between the ages
- 46:37Speaker 7: of 18 to 34... are voting with education at the
- 46:42Speaker 7: top of their mind. And so we know after what
- 46:45Speaker 7: we've seen for almost a decade of Scott Walker in
- 46:48Speaker 7: Wisconsin and the disastrous cuts to public education, K through
- 46:53Speaker 7: 12 and higher education, that people are designing an education
- 46:56Speaker 7: system that is well-funded, that meets the needs, and that
- 47:00Speaker 7: is also equitable for black and brown communities as well too.
- 47:04Speaker 6: God, that's so frustrating. It's like the obvious number one
- 47:07Speaker 6: issue you see in polling is, How often has it
- 47:09Speaker 6: been discussed on the campaign trail, or at least in
- 47:12Speaker 6: the media? Like, never, right?
- 47:13Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 47:15Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, it's quite frustrating to think about, you know,
- 47:17Speaker 7: what most people are thinking about. Most parents, most young people,
- 47:21Speaker 7: most grandparents, you know, caretakers of children are thinking about
- 47:23Speaker 7: the education that their child is going to receive. And
- 47:26Speaker 7: yet we don't hear the plans that are going to
- 47:28Speaker 7: lay out the future to eliminate, you know, almost $ 2
- 47:31Speaker 7: trillion in student loan debt. We're not hearing plans that
- 47:33Speaker 7: are going to change critical funding formulas to ensure that
- 47:37Speaker 7: Property taxes are not the only ways that schools are
- 47:39Speaker 7: being funded because we know that is inherently racist and
- 47:42Speaker 7: inherently just out of touch with reality. Why are we
- 47:47Speaker 7: still funding our school system off of decades, centuries ago
- 47:52Speaker 7: idea on how schools should be funded? So for us,
- 47:56Speaker 7: it's pretty frustrating to think about almost every day while
- 47:59Speaker 7: doing this work that what people want to hear the
- 48:03Speaker 7: most about is not being talked about.
- 48:05Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah. So there's what people want to hear about.
- 48:08Speaker 6: There's also how to reach them, right? And with the pandemic,
- 48:10Speaker 6: there's a lot of talk about how to reach voters
- 48:12Speaker 6: this cycle, especially since sometimes like normal face-to-face contact can
- 48:16Speaker 6: feel risky or unsafe, especially for older cohorts. How are
- 48:19Speaker 6: you guys reaching people? And does your strategy change if
- 48:22Speaker 6: the outreach is to seniors in high school versus a 29-year-old?
- 48:26Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, so our outreach is similar to a
- 48:28Speaker 7: lot of folks. Like, we're making, you know, phone calls.
- 48:31Speaker 7: To date, we're approaching 1 million phone calls. We're approaching 1.2
- 48:35Speaker 7: million text messages to Wisconsinites. You know, we're on social media, Snapchat, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram,
- 48:44Speaker 7: reaching people there and getting people to interact with us
- 48:48Speaker 7: on social media as well, too. So, I mean, while
- 48:51Speaker 7: we're not in person, I think a lot of our
- 48:52Speaker 7: game plan is still to be the same in terms
- 48:54Speaker 7: of reaching out with people. not necessarily about the election first,
- 48:57Speaker 7: but talking to them about the values in which, you know,
- 48:59Speaker 7: it's motivating this year, right? Whether it is the coronavirus response, right,
- 49:04Speaker 7: or lack of response, depending on who you're talking to
- 49:06Speaker 7: and communities feeling left out to dry, whether you're a
- 49:09Speaker 7: small business owner, whether you're a young person who was
- 49:12Speaker 7: intentionally left out of the coronavirus relief package earlier this
- 49:16Speaker 7: year and received no stimulus dollars and was told by
- 49:18Speaker 7: your campus that, we don't have a plan, but we're
- 49:21Speaker 7: going virtual. You may or may not get a refund
- 49:24Speaker 7: for the housing you already paid for and you were
- 49:26Speaker 7: sent home and they got screwed throughout the whole entire
- 49:30Speaker 7: COVID relief stuff. And even now, a lot of them
- 49:33Speaker 7: are forced back to the campus without a clear safety plan.
- 49:37Speaker 7: or testing here. So one of the examples we always
- 49:40Speaker 7: bring up is University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, when they first announced
- 49:43Speaker 7: that they were coming back to school, announced that they
- 49:45Speaker 7: would not be testing every student. They would only test
- 49:48Speaker 7: students who were showing symptoms of the coronavirus, and that
- 49:53Speaker 7: did not include testing faculty. So it was just a
- 49:56Speaker 7: really unsafe plan to usher people back in to receive
- 50:00Speaker 7: those housing dollars, to receive the tuition dollars, without a
- 50:02Speaker 7: real plan to keep people safe and educate them.
- 50:04Speaker 6: Yeah, that is absurd. So you mentioned how a lot
- 50:07Speaker 6: of Wisconsin college students are back on campus. Are you
- 50:10Speaker 6: guys still able to organize on campus in traditional ways
- 50:13Speaker 6: or how does that work?
- 50:15Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's completely changed.
- 50:16Speaker 7: We've done a few safe, like COVID safe events outside,
- 50:19Speaker 7: handed out PPE, just talking to people as they walk by.
- 50:23Speaker 4: But the campus vibe has completely changed, right?
- 50:26Speaker 7: You don't have hundreds of students walking by, thousands of
- 50:28Speaker 7: students walking by.
- 50:30Speaker 4: And so it's definitely different.
- 50:32Speaker 7: And that's where all of the text messaging and phone
- 50:34Speaker 7: calls come into place, as well as We brought out
- 50:36Speaker 7: a relational voter program to have some of our young
- 50:39Speaker 7: leaders reach out to some of their classmates and their friends.
- 50:42Speaker 7: And we built over 3,000 strong contacts on college campuses.
- 50:47Speaker 7: And who's doing that organizing? Who's reaching out saying, hey,
- 50:50Speaker 7: we have this coming up. We have this coming up.
- 50:52Speaker 7: And every day they're talking to people who they otherwise
- 50:55Speaker 7: would be able to interact with in person. But now
- 50:56Speaker 7: they just moved to, you know, whether it's text messaging, Facebook,
- 51:00Speaker 7: other means besides that.
- 51:03Speaker 2: Right.
- 51:04Speaker 6: So early voting is happening right now in Wisconsin.
- 51:06Speaker 4: Yes, it is.
- 51:06Speaker 6: We're seeing some big, big aggregate numbers. How are you
- 51:09Speaker 6: feeling about youth turnout so far?
- 51:12Speaker 4: You know, I'm feeling good about it.
- 51:13Speaker 7: I mean, while Wisconsin data isn't the best in terms
- 51:15Speaker 7: of breaking out young people, we know that almost a
- 51:17Speaker 7: million ballots have been returned in Wisconsin via the absentee program.
- 51:21Speaker 7: And we know that young people, due to what happened
- 51:24Speaker 7: in April, are ready and know how to vote by mail. And,
- 51:28Speaker 7: you know, we've seen them request ballots ourselves, as well
- 51:31Speaker 7: as I think the numbers are going to show that
- 51:33Speaker 7: when it comes down to it, the winner of this
- 51:35Speaker 7: election is going to have young people to thank because
- 51:38Speaker 7: the young people are going to sway Wisconsin. When you
- 51:41Speaker 7: look at the polling numbers, almost every age group beyond
- 51:44Speaker 7: 35 and above is almost neck and neck.
- 51:46Speaker 4: For Biden and Trump.
- 51:49Speaker 7: And our poll shows that Joe Biden's up 28 points
- 51:52Speaker 7: over Trump between 18 to 34-year-olds. So Really, I think,
- 51:58Speaker 7: you know, I think young people are going to determine
- 52:00Speaker 7: the election in Wisconsin as well as other places like
- 52:02Speaker 7: Arizona and Georgia and Florida. All these key states are
- 52:06Speaker 7: really relying on, you know, Gen Z voters and young
- 52:08Speaker 7: millennials to, you know, change the country a little bit.
- 52:13Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 52:14Speaker 6: Are you guys getting help and support from the Biden
- 52:16Speaker 6: campaign or the Wisconsin Democratic Party?
- 52:18Speaker 7: Are you operating independently? How do you work with those groups? Yeah,
- 52:21Speaker 7: we operate independently. All of our work is independent of Democrats.
- 52:26Speaker 7: While we know a lot of our values and interests
- 52:29Speaker 7: may align with them, we don't directly work with them
- 52:31Speaker 7: on any campaign stuff. But we also know we push
- 52:33Speaker 7: a lot of Democrats, even here locally, to go a
- 52:35Speaker 7: little bit further, to think a little bit bolder and
- 52:39Speaker 7: bigger around some of the issues. One of the things
- 52:41Speaker 7: that we push a lot of Democrats on this year
- 52:43Speaker 7: was removing police from schools. And we got that victory
- 52:46Speaker 7: back in June by removing police officers from Milwaukee Public Schools.
- 52:50Speaker 7: And Milwaukee Public School Board, most of those folks would
- 52:53Speaker 7: identify as Democrat, if not Democratic Socialist. And it was
- 52:56Speaker 7: a fight, a multi-year fight to get people to think
- 52:59Speaker 7: about rethinking safety in a district that is 90% black
- 53:02Speaker 7: and brown. And we finally got that done this year.
- 53:06Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 53:07Speaker 6: So also Wisconsin was the center of a lot of
- 53:10Speaker 6: the Black Lives Matter protests.
- 53:11Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 53:12Speaker 6: This year after Jacob Blake was shot in particular. Have
- 53:15Speaker 6: those protests and that organizing been foundational to your work?
- 53:20Speaker 5: Do you work with them?
- 53:21Speaker 6: How do you view what happened in Wisconsin and the
- 53:24Speaker 6: ability of organizers to build on that?
- 53:26Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think what just happened in Wisconsin was,
- 53:31Speaker 7: you know, nothing new to us, unfortunately. I think we
- 53:33Speaker 7: just finally got a lot of media attention because of
- 53:36Speaker 7: what happened to Breonna Taylor and George Floyd earlier in
- 53:38Speaker 7: the year. And then we get Jacob Blake down in
- 53:41Speaker 7: Kenosha being shot seven times in the back in.
- 53:44Speaker 4: Front of his kids.
- 53:45Speaker 7: But that's not the first case of police brutality that
- 53:47Speaker 7: we've had here in Wisconsin. We had Dontre Hamilton shot
- 53:51Speaker 7: 14 times right downtown in Milwaukee. We had another young
- 53:57Speaker 7: man shot in Madison. And for Wisconsin, this wasn't new
- 54:00Speaker 7: to us. And it's something that we've been building towards.
- 54:03Speaker 7: And a lot of cities are now just getting attention
- 54:06Speaker 7: for the injustice that their communities suffer. But really, you know,
- 54:09Speaker 7: I think, you know, when we think about what happened
- 54:12Speaker 7: with Jacob Blake and everything, it was, you know, I
- 54:16Speaker 7: think just more heightened media. But it's something organized on
- 54:19Speaker 7: the ground since, you know, 2013, 2014 have been dealing
- 54:22Speaker 7: with and organizing against and holding local city councils accountable to,
- 54:28Speaker 7: you know, really focusing on changing some of these police
- 54:30Speaker 7: policies and getting civilian oversight over their police departments.
- 54:34Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 54:35Speaker 6: Are you guys running into or concerned about voter suppression
- 54:39Speaker 6: or voter intimidation efforts?
- 54:42Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, definitely.
- 54:43Speaker 7: I think one of the things that the Jacob Blake
- 54:45Speaker 7: shooting brought up was that there are tons of militias
- 54:48Speaker 7: in our surrounding communities, especially in Illinois, who are willing
- 54:52Speaker 7: to come up and commit harm against our communities. And
- 54:54Speaker 7: so even just a few last week, NPR report came
- 54:58Speaker 7: out saying that Wisconsin is one of the top five
- 55:00Speaker 7: states that would be at risk for voter intimidation with militias.
- 55:04Speaker 7: And similar to Oregon, what we saw in Oregon this
- 55:07Speaker 7: year is that militias are coming out and they're coming
- 55:10Speaker 7: out with guns to scare people, to ignite some fear.
- 55:15Speaker 7: And so we're definitely worried about that here in Wisconsin,
- 55:17Speaker 7: thinking about all that can go wrong in such a
- 55:21Speaker 7: critical state, especially with vulnerable communities, black and brown communities,
- 55:25Speaker 7: indigenous communities who often suffer high rates of violence, especially
- 55:30Speaker 7: indigenous women. from outsiders of that community. And so what
- 55:33Speaker 7: does that mean when you have a bunch of armed
- 55:35Speaker 7: militia who are going and intimidating people to the polls
- 55:38Speaker 7: to suppress the vote? It's something that we're helping promote
- 55:43Speaker 7: out there of talking about voter protection hotlines, really pushing
- 55:46Speaker 7: that out to the most vulnerable communities. We're promoting hotlines
- 55:51Speaker 7: in Spanish and Arabic to indigenous communities to make sure
- 55:54Speaker 7: that they know how to access resources when some of
- 55:57Speaker 7: this stuff may happen in their community.
- 55:59Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 56:00Speaker 6: So maybe you just sort of spoke to some of this,
- 56:01Speaker 6: but like knowing that risk is out there, how do
- 56:05Speaker 6: you think we should balance the messaging of making people aware,
- 56:09Speaker 6: but not making them think, oh man, there might be
- 56:12Speaker 6: a militia at my polling place, so I shouldn't bother.
- 56:14Speaker 4: To vote, right?
- 56:14Speaker 6: Like we don't want to scare people away from voting
- 56:17Speaker 6: or kind of do their work for them, but what's
- 56:20Speaker 6: the right balance you think?
- 56:21Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean, I think it's just talking about the
- 56:24Speaker 7: values of why we vote, right? And how long it
- 56:26Speaker 7: took for some of us to vote, right? When we
- 56:27Speaker 7: think about Indigenous communities not becoming citizens until 1924 and
- 56:32Speaker 7: then fighting state constitutions for another 40 years to get
- 56:38Speaker 7: that right to vote. Think about the struggle that black
- 56:40Speaker 7: Americans have gone through and the civil rights and the
- 56:43Speaker 7: Voting Act. And even the suppression that we've gone through
- 56:45Speaker 7: in the last few years after the Supreme Court overthrew
- 56:48Speaker 7: some critical parts of the Voting Rights Act and no
- 56:50Speaker 7: longer mandate the states have to go to the feds
- 56:52Speaker 7: to change some of the rules. And so all of
- 56:55Speaker 7: this tells me that they're afraid when black and brown
- 56:57Speaker 7: folks go out to vote. And that's why we need
- 57:00Speaker 7: to go vote. And, you know, if they weren't afraid
- 57:03Speaker 7: for us to go vote, they wouldn't be doing all
- 57:05Speaker 7: this stuff, right? And so that balance for me is
- 57:07Speaker 7: really telling people, you know, we have this power and
- 57:10Speaker 7: we're going to try to make sure that everything is
- 57:12Speaker 7: protected and make sure that people are voting safely. Even
- 57:14Speaker 7: beyond the militias, right? We're still in the pandemic, right?
- 57:16Speaker 7: So even going out to vote next Tuesday, November 3rd,
- 57:20Speaker 7: it's still going to be dangerous. And making sure that,
- 57:23Speaker 7: you know, we're equipping people with PPE, giving out masks,
- 57:26Speaker 7: hand sanitizer as well, too. And really just talking about,
- 57:29Speaker 7: you know, this is not just, you know, voting for us, right?
- 57:32Speaker 7: We're voting for the ancestors who made us aware and
- 57:35Speaker 7: got us to this point. We're voting for the elders
- 57:38Speaker 7: who literally got beat for the right to vote down
- 57:40Speaker 7: in the South, right? And even some places around the country.
- 57:43Speaker 7: And so while it's a single vote for us, it's
- 57:46Speaker 7: much bigger as a collective.
- 57:48Speaker 6: Yeah, very well put.
- 57:50Speaker 5: So there might be people listening.
- 57:52Speaker 6: Who are doing similar organizing in different states, similar age groups.
- 57:56Speaker 6: Are there any strategies you guys have found that they
- 57:58Speaker 6: should steal from you in this last week to try
- 58:00Speaker 6: to really juice their numbers?
- 58:02Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think the number one strategy that
- 58:04Speaker 7: folks need to focus on is building a relationship with
- 58:07Speaker 7: young people.
- 58:08Speaker 4: You can't just.
- 58:08Speaker 7: Assume that you're going to get them by doing a
- 58:13Speaker 7: funny TikTok ad or you're going to go viral on Instagram.
- 58:17Speaker 7: But really, you know, I think oftentimes people are like, oh,
- 58:19Speaker 7: what do young people care about? You know, they care
- 58:21Speaker 7: about climate or they care about, you know, this or that.
- 58:23Speaker 7: Young people, you know, they're not a one issue voter.
- 58:27Speaker 7: They often carry multiple identities. You know, Gen Z is
- 58:30Speaker 7: probably one of the most politically aware communities, you know,
- 58:33Speaker 7: communities that are, you know, hyper tuned into the intersectionality
- 58:38Speaker 7: on the way things go. And so you really have
- 58:40Speaker 7: to do that on the ground organizing. You can't just
- 58:42Speaker 7: start your campaign in September or August or wait for
- 58:45Speaker 7: campuses to come back. But you really have to invest
- 58:47Speaker 7: into this year round and be committed to doing that
- 58:50Speaker 7: deep work and even doing the work that you may
- 58:53Speaker 7: have to unlearn as a campaign or as an organization
- 58:56Speaker 7: or political entity. Unlike how, you know, you're currently structured
- 59:00Speaker 7: doesn't meet the needs of young people in this time.
- 59:03Speaker 7: And so really, you know, the advice that I always
- 59:05Speaker 7: give anyone is, you know, build these relationships, because at
- 59:08Speaker 7: the end of the day, you know, you're always going
- 59:11Speaker 7: to get people who are going to get excited to
- 59:12Speaker 7: vote and you can send out text messages and people
- 59:14Speaker 7: can be like, yeah, you know, I'm really down for
- 59:16Speaker 7: Joe Biden or I'm really down for this candidate. That,
- 59:19Speaker 7: you know, that's cool now. But what we're trying to
- 59:20Speaker 7: do is we're trying to build a movement. We're trying
- 59:22Speaker 7: to lay the groundwork for something larger than a political
- 59:25Speaker 7: campaign because we know oftentimes what we're dealing with cannot
- 59:28Speaker 7: be legislated out, right? We can't legislate out racism. We
- 59:31Speaker 7: can't legislate out misogyny. We can't legislate out, you know,
- 59:35Speaker 7: a bunch of these different things that are affecting people's lives,
- 59:38Speaker 7: you know? So it's really, it goes beyond the election
- 59:41Speaker 7: for us as well, too.
- 59:43Speaker 6: That's good advice also.
- 59:45Speaker 4: So last question for you.
- 59:46Speaker 6: If people are hearing you talk, they're hearing about Leaders
- 59:49Speaker 6: Igniting Transformation, they think that sounds like great work. That
- 59:52Speaker 6: sounds like important work. How can they help you out?
- 59:54Speaker 6: What do you guys need for this last week?
- 59:56Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, check us out on our website, you know,
- 59:58Speaker 7: sign up for a volunteer shift. You know, we're accepting
- 1:00:02Speaker 7: people to help us do some phone calls, some text messaging.
- 1:00:04Speaker 7: If you're in Wisconsin and one of the places we're
- 1:00:07Speaker 7: working in, we're doing Glit Drops all across that. You know,
- 1:00:10Speaker 7: donating is always good, helps us push us over any
- 1:00:12Speaker 7: last thing. You know, whether that is sending out more messages,
- 1:00:15Speaker 7: paying for all the messages that we're doing, printing, turning
- 1:00:19Speaker 7: out more students, even on Election Day, right? Like, there
- 1:00:21Speaker 7: is no money that is too late, even up to
- 1:00:24Speaker 7: Election Day in a place like Wisconsin. where our polls
- 1:00:26Speaker 7: open at 7 a.m., they close at 8 p.m., and
- 1:00:29Speaker 7: we know for those 11 hours or 13 hours that
- 1:00:32Speaker 7: we're going to be in it, right? And we're going
- 1:00:35Speaker 7: to have to make sure and motivate people to stay
- 1:00:36Speaker 7: in line even though it's going to be cold and
- 1:00:39Speaker 7: dark in Wisconsin.
- 1:00:40Speaker 4: 8 p.m.
- 1:00:40Speaker 7: In Wisconsin is going to be about 30 degrees, super dark,
- 1:00:45Speaker 7: and people are going to need motivation, right? So that,
- 1:00:46Speaker 7: you know, can we bring them hot chocolate, hand warmers,
- 1:00:49Speaker 7: you know, deploy all of our staff, interns, fellows around
- 1:00:53Speaker 7: the state to make sure that these people are staying
- 1:00:54Speaker 7: in line? Nothing is too late at this moment. All right.
- 1:00:59Speaker 6: Well, thank you for the work you're doing, Dakota. I
- 1:01:02Speaker 6: really appreciate you doing the show and all the organizing.
- 1:01:04Speaker 6: Leaders Igniting Transformation. Check out their website if you want
- 1:01:07Speaker 6: to help out. But listen, man, I appreciate you fighting
- 1:01:10Speaker 6: the good fight and hopefully we'll win this thing.
- 1:01:12Speaker 4: I appreciate having you on.
- 1:01:18Speaker 5: Thanks to Dakota for joining us today. Dan and I
- 1:01:21Speaker 5: will talk to you on Wednesday. And then we'll be
- 1:01:24Speaker 5: doing one more pre-election podcast that the four of us
- 1:01:28Speaker 5: will all record on Friday.
- 1:01:30Speaker 4: Wow.
- 1:01:32Speaker 5: Wow, it's here. Exciting stuff. It's here. It's here, guys.
- 1:01:34Speaker 5: It's here. Votesaveamerica.com slash volunteer. Please do it. Pod Save
- 1:01:42Speaker 5: America is a Crooked Media production. The executive producer is
- 1:01:45Speaker 5: Michael Martinez. Our associate producer is Jordan Waller. It's mixed
- 1:01:49Speaker 5: and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer.
- 1:01:53Speaker 5: Thanks to Tanya Sominator, Katie Long, Roman Pavadimitriou, Quinn Lewis,
- 1:01:58Speaker 5: Brian Semmel, Caroline Reston, and Elisa Gutierrez for production support.
- 1:02:02Speaker 5: And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Nar Melkonian, Yale Freed,
- 1:02:06Speaker 5: and Milo Kim, who film and upload these episodes as
- 1:02:09Speaker 5: videos every week.