Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Didn't Hear No Campbell | NHL & WNBA Playoffs & NCAA Football | 10/2/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Didn't Hear No Campbell | NHL & WNBA Playoffs & NCAA Football | 10/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand. Now you
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 4: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 4: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: out That fell up by its heart But it don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Friday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: October 2nd. We got a win with the one play
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: I gave out yesterday. My hockey reads were fairly good.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: Edmonton team total over. Yeah, that happened. In a ridiculous game,
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: the puck line would have been a bit of a
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: sweat in that one. So my read was good on that. Oh, good. Yes,
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: my NOS is back where I have all my TV
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: and movies. Having some major issues with that thing, man,
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: but it seems like it still runs sometimes. Oh, man,
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: I got to figure out what to do. If I'm
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: going to have to transfer that date off, it's going
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: to be a lot of data. But anyway, yeah, that's
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: a tangent. If you heard that woman's voice, it has
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: a woman's voice, I don't know, built into it that
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: tells you when it has completed booting, et cetera, whatever. Anyway, yeah,
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: my reads were good on hockey yesterday for sure. Buffalo
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: was correct. Rangers were correct. A couple of the games
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: I didn't get right, but we got the most important
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: game right, San Jose. That was looking real easy. They
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: were up 3-0. I'm like, all right, yeah, easy, no sweat.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Then it was 3-1, all right, yeah. Then they gave
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: up like two quick goals in a row, and all
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: of a sudden it was tied. After they'd been leading
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: 3-0 right near the end of the second period, I
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: think they gave up one goal right near the end
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: of the second period. Yeah, you go into the third period,
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: still up two goals. You're looking pretty good. Up three
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: goals almost at the end of two. Nope, now all
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: of a sudden it's tied. I mean, you've got to
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: be kidding me. They're actually going to blow this thing.
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: But they actually won in overtime. So, yeah, I mean,
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: still I think the right call. They had more shots
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: in the game, although they lost the physicality stats in
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: the game. But, I mean, they had a 3-0 lead, man,
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: as an underdog. I mean, it was the right call.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: I think we got the win with it. So that
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: is good. Yeah, we move on to today here. We
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: have five hockey games today here. Rangers are playing again
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: at Detroit. The Rangers are now, I believe, playing a
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: third game in four days, and Detroit hasn't even played yet.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: So this is kind of the start of where, like, well,
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: maybe the Rangers' rest disadvantage kind of hurts them here. Plus,
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: they're coming off a big win over the Lightning. 5-1,
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: which made the Rangers look really good, although I did
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: say they looked worse than they were in that Bruins game.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: That game was actually close. Rangers yesterday with that massive win,
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: maybe they look a little bit too good, and I
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: told you I thought they had a little bit of
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: an advantage there because they had a game under their belt,
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: whereas Tampa didn't. Tampa did kind of out-hit them. Rangers
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: did win the face-off battle. The game was close on
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: the shot total there, though. So the game wasn't really
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: a blowout, like it looked on the scoreboard, and there
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: was one empty net goal, which I guess was scored
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: by Shisterkin, the goalie. I guess he scored an empty
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: net goal at the end for the Rangers, so that's
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: obviously a fluke. I'm going to kind of lean to
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: Detroit here, man. Rangers could be in a possible letdown.
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know they have games under their belt now.
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: It's kind of crazy they have three games already, and
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: Detroit hasn't even played one yet. The money's coming in
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: on the Rangers. I'm not sure I agree with that
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: in this one. 50% of tickets, 79% of the cash
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: on them. Detroit's about minus 130 here. Again, I think
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: it could be a letdown after what we saw yesterday
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: with the Rangers. Rest disadvantage might come back to hurt
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: them here. Detroit, though, they haven't played yet, so that's
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a risk for them there as
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: well if you're going to play Detroit. Money does not
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: look like it agrees with me on Detroit there, but
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: that would be my lean in that one. Washington and Carolina.
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: Carolina probably has a little bit of an edge here
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: because they already played, but it was a big game
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: against Florida. Maybe they will be in a hangover spot
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: after that, though. But Carolina, I think they've had multiple
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: days off after that. Could bounce back from that. I mean,
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: they did get shut out at home, so a lot
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: of times teams do bounce back from that, although that
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: was a big game, though, against Florida. So I could
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: see this going either way. It could be a bounce-back spot.
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: Carolina could have the edge here because they have a
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: game under their belt, or maybe they're going to be
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: a little bit hungover after that. Washington has not played yet,
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: and as I pointed out in my preview of the season,
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: I think Washington's a little bit under the radar here.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: They're supposed to be one of the better teams in
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: the conference, although Carolina is the better team. Carolina's around
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: a minus 140-something favorite here at home. They're public, though,
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: 82% of tickets on them. Only 65% of the cash,
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: so the money seems to be leaning towards Washington here.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: It's tough for me to figure this game out, man.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think it could be like an under
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: because Carolina plays a lot of low-scoring games, kind of
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: focusing on defense, slowing the pace down, focusing on goaltending.
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: Washington could start slow because they haven't played yet. Carolina's
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: a bit rested here, so I don't know. Maybe the
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: under is better than anything else here. The money is
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: agreeing with that. six or six and a half is
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: the total though that's a high total uh that worries
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: me the fact the total is that high in a
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: carolina game that would kind of scare me as far
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: as that's concerned but yeah the money seems to be
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: agreeing with the washington side there as well i don't
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: really have a good read on that game um i
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: don't even know which way i lean to be honest
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: i can see arguments both ways i mean maybe the
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: market kind of clinches that for me it would have
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: me leaning slightly towards washington um I guess so. I mean,
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: that's a fairly high price on Carolina there, given that
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: Washington might not be that much worse of a team.
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: Then we have Boston going to Winnipeg. My Boston Bruins
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: off of kind of a misleading win over the Rangers.
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: They do have a game under their belt, though, and
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: Winnipeg does not. And Winnipeg is going through this thing
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: where Hellebook is refusing to play for them or whatever.
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: I believe he's suspended right now, so... He's like the
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: best goalie in the league, or one of them. So
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: I believe Winnipeg will not have Hellebook for this game.
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: I believe their backup goalies are not really that bad, though.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: I think it's Comrie still, but maybe I'm wrong about that.
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: Let me see real quick. I mean, he's played a
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: lot because Hellebook's been hurt, so that's not going to
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: be that bad for them, but let me see. Is
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: that who they have? Hold No, I forgot. They actually
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: have Skinner now. Holy shit. That is worse. I didn't
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: realize they had Skinner now. I thought he was still
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: in Pittsburgh. He's the former Edmonton goalie. Yeah, that is
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: a downgrade, man. I know Skinner has experience, but that
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: would be a downgrade for sure for Winnipeg there. So
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: I guess it will be Skinner in that there. I
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: don't know what to do with this game, to be honest.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: Usually the start of a road trip is a focus spot.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: The Bruins are public, though. Because people will just latch
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: on to, oh, the Bruins won 3-0 in their first game.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: And that looks better now that the Rangers just smashed
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay last night. That win looks better for the Bruins.
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: 86% of tickets, 90% of the cash on the Bruins.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: Winnipeg is a slight favorite at about minus 120. They're
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: basically just getting home ice. Neither team is expected to
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: be very good this year. It's a very tough call
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: on this game. I don't even really have a good
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: read on this game. I mean, maybe you give the
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: Bruins the slight edge just because they do have a
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: game under their belt, but again, they look too good
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: in the first game, so I really don't like that game.
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: And it's never really that easy for an East Coast
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: team to have to make the trip to the middle
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: of Canada and getting further west in Canada there. St.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: Louis and Dallas on TNT. The TNT and True TV
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: doubleheader starts with the Rangers and Red Wings game. Then
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: we have Blue Stars here. Neither of these teams have
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: played a game yet. Dallas is a pretty big favorite.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: Everybody knows Dallas has been a strong team recently. Over
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: the last decade or so, they've been a playoff team,
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: I think, the majority of the time. 85% of the
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: tickets are on Dallas, 74% of the cash on St.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: Maybe St. Louis is a little bit under the radar here.
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're getting the money in this one.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: St.
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: Louis almost made the playoffs last year. year. I think
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: maybe they're not as bad as people think, and maybe
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: Dallas is getting a little bit overrated here. The money
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: line has dropped from nearly minus 200, where it opened,
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: down into the minus 180 range. So it looks like
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: there is some real money coming in on St. Louis.
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: Maybe there is still enough value there to maybe do
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: that and grab St. Louis as like a plus one
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: puck line underdog or something like that. I think I
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: would probably agree with leaning towards St. Louis there, but
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: I don't have a situation to really read into there,
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: you know. Neither team has played yet. It would be
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: all about the value and perception in that game. The
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: perception probably has the public overrating how much better Dallas
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: is than St. Louis by a little bit. Even though, yes,
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: they are better, but Maybe not enough to warrant a
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: price like that. Anaheim and Vegas is the last game.
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: This is one of the more interesting ones. This is
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: revenge because Anaheim lost to Vegas in the playoffs. And
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: everybody remembers who ended their season, man. So you know
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's going to remember that. You know they're going to
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: have this game circled. But they're at a little bit
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: of a disadvantage too because Vegas played a game already.
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: They had an easy win over the Blackhawks. They're staying
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: at home. Anaheim hasn't played yet. And, you know, I
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: think a team with a game under their belt Has
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: a little bit of an advantage because they kind of
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: get that momentum going. Whereas the other team might come
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: in a little bit cold. So Vegas does have the
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: advantage of having played already. I'm still going to lean
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: towards Anaheim here, though, because I think the revenge is
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: meaningful in this game. I think knowing who ended your season,
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: I think that's meaningful revenge. And that was literally the
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: last time Anaheim played. They were losing to this Vegas team.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: And then, of course, we know Vegas went on and
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: wound up losing in the Stanley Cup Finals there. Maybe...
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Playing that much hockey will take its toll, although, of course,
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: Anaheim only exited the playoffs, I believe, one or two
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: series prior. I forget how many. I guess it was
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: two series prior. Yeah, so... Because I think Vegas... Yeah,
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: Vegas wound up beating... Who did they beat in the
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: conference championship? Did they beat Colorado? I don't even remember, man. Anyway...
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is getting the money here. 80% of tickets, 55%
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Vegas. Vegas is a minus 190
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: favorite here. So Vegas is a pretty big favorite. If
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: you're going to play this, I would say probably you're
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: going to be taking the plus one and a half
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: puck line with Anaheim. I think that's not a bad idea.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: And in fact, I don't like the hockey board today,
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: but I think out of all these games, I think
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: that might be the best of the plays, actually, is
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: to just grab Anaheim as the plus one and a
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: half underdog And I don't know how much juice you
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: have to pay on that, but hope they can come
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: within one goal. I think it's a reasonable ask in
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: a huge revenge spot like that. So I think that's
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: the way I would lean. I still don't really want
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: to do it, though. We have no baseball today. The
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: divisional series start tomorrow. All four of them will have
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: action tomorrow. So I got to talk about that on
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: tomorrow's show. We do have one WNBA game, which is
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: the deciding game between Dallas and Golden State. The home
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: team has won each game. You guys know I had
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: Golden State in the finals in my bracket. Golden State's
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: the better team, man. Maybe this does zigzag here. They
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: won easily in a blowout in the home game. The
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: only time they lost to Dallas was this game in
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: Dallas in Game 2 where Dallas was able to beat
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: them in overtime. And it was a close game statistically,
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: although Dallas did... Shoot quite well, though. They shot over
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: 50% from three. So there might be some regression to
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: be had there. And then the other thing that might
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: regress here is that Dallas went to the line 14
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: more times and they hit 12 more free throws. That
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: is kind of an outlier. So I would expect that
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: to regress a little bit as well. So the regression
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: points here are mostly on the Dallas side. They're definitely
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: a good offense, but this Golden State defense is good
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: and should clamp down now that they're going to be
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: back at home here. So I think there were some
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: outliers here that helped Dallas here, and still Dallas only
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: had to go to overtime to win the game, even
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: though they had a pretty ridiculous free throw disparity there
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: and very high three-point percentage. When you see that, you
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: should win more easily than that, which Dallas was unable
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: to do. And in fact, Golden State led 62% of
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: that game. So Golden State led the majority of the
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: game even still, although it was mostly a close game, though. Um,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: neither team had a big margin of, uh, had a
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: big lead throughout the game. Uh, golden state's biggest lead was, uh,
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: early in the game. I believe whatever their lead was here.
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: Why doesn't it tell? Oh, it does tell you they're
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: up six there. That might've been their biggest lead.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: Uh, they're up six, a couple of different times. And then, um, yeah,
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: Dallas had the bigger lead in the game, which was, uh,
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: the final score was the biggest lead. I think, uh, So, yeah,
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: that game was pretty close. But, yeah, I expect Golden State,
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: the better team, the more experienced team to fix what
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: went wrong. That's kind of what the zigzag does. I
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: think Dallas' shooting will regress. I think Dallas won't go
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: to the free throw line as much. Now they're going
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: to be on the road, again, as the lesser team here.
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: I would lay the points with Golden State if I
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: was going to play this. Dallas looks like a public underdog.
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: after what people saw there. But remember, Golden State's still
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: 4-1 against Dallas this year, if you include these two
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: playoff games. Although, that doesn't mean they're necessarily going to cover.
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: They could win without covering, obviously. They're laying 7.5 here.
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: They opened 6.5, but the money immediately drove it to 7.5,
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: and I believe in Game 1, the line was 7.5.
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: 67% of tickets, 64% of the cash on Dallas. So
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: the money is fading Dallas. Dallas looks like a public
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: underdog here. One problem if you want to lay the points, though,
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: is it's a very low total in the 150s. So
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: that makes laying the points a little bit more difficult.
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: But I think Golden State is actually correlated to the under,
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: like I said in the other games of the series,
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: or at least I said it in game one. Golden
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: State's the better defense here. Dallas wants to run and
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: get into a shootout. Golden State wants to slow the
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: pace way down. So I think the under and Golden
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: State are actually correlated, even though Golden State is laying
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: points here. They're definitely the more defensive of the two teams.
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: But yes, I would lay it with Golden State if
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: I was going to play that game. And at least
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: basketball is high-scoring enough. They might be able to do
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: that anyway, even if it's a low-ish scoring game. They
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: might still be able to cover that. So I don't
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: think Dallas is going to get into the 100s this time.
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: I'll put it that way. Of course, overtime helped them
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: out a little bit in that one. Neither team was
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: up to 100 before overtime. But yeah, I think that's
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: pretty much what I got on that. Yeah, I think
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: the zigzag makes sense in that game. And again, the experience,
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: I think, will loom large in a deciding game like that. Dallas,
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: definitely the younger team, even though Golden State's been kind
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: of an upstart team recently too. They're ahead of Dallas experience-wise.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I like Golden State in that one. Then
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: we have football. I am going to give out a
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: football play here, even though I do have a couple
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: of reservations about it. First, we do have an ACC
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: battle on ESPN, a pretty good one between, I believe,
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: two 4-0 teams here, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. I believe
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: they're both 4-0, right? Yeah. Neither team has really been
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: that battle-tested yet. Pittsburgh, they beat UCF in a really
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: ugly game, but that game had really, really terrible weather.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: going on in it, so maybe you can't really read
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: that much into it. And that was Pittsburgh's biggest win.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: It was over UCF. I mean, that's not great. So
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's not terribly battle-tested here. Coming off an easy win,
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: smoking Bucknell in their last game, although Bucknell is a
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: little brother that would get up for that game, but
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh had no problem there. Virginia Tech, speaking of bad weather,
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: they went into BC and they didn't look very good.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: They only won by seven. Did they cover? No, they
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: definitely did not cover. They were double-digit dogs, and in fact,
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: this was a tied game in the fourth quarter. This
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: was a bad, bad weather game, though, remember. They played
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: during the Nor'easter up here, so that definitely hampered the
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: offense quite a bit in that game. Virginia Tech also
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: played better than it looked. If you look at the scoreboard,
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: they outgained BC by over 100 yards. So Virginia Tech
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: actually should have won this game more easily. But it
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: was just a weird, bad weather game where the offense
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: has really struggled. This will not be a bad weather
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: game as far as I know. So, you know, it'll
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: be a normal weather game for this year. It's going
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: to be 75 clear, it looks like. So very normal
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: weather game. Good weather for a football game. Yeah, then
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: I think it kind of comes down to which of
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: these teams is better, really. Although Virginia Tech... looked worse
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: than they really are in their last game. And I
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: think they're a little bit more battle-tested by playing at
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: Maryland and at Boston College. Virginia Tech has actually had
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: a little bit more difficult of a schedule. Although I'm
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: not really sold on James Franklin, I think I would
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: probably lean Virginia Tech here. They're a two-and-a-half point favorite.
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: The home team usually gets a little bit of a
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: boost when they get to play this primetime, isolated ESPN
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: game that everybody's going to watch. Although maybe people will
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: tune into the Penn State game too, but I don't know.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think there might be a lot of
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: eyes on this game, and it is the ESPN game. So, yeah,
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: the home team usually plays a little bit tougher in
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: games like that. The isolated Friday night home game. Virginia
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: Tech initially was a 4.5 point favorite and dropped to 2.5, though.
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know if there's like an injury involved or
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: if that was some sort of false move because now
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: it looks like we do have money coming in on
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech. 61% of tickets and 67% of the cash
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: on them. Money also coming in on the under after
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: the total moved up a couple of points to 54.5%.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: definitely not a low total I don't know if I
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: really like the under after Virginia Tech had kind of
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: a both teams have misleadingly low scoring games on their
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: resume like I said they both played in a very
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: bad weather game so you can't really draw many conclusions
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: from those two games So I don't know if I
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: would really, I mean, I'm not, as you know, I'm
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: not really a totals guy in football. So in anything
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: besides baseball, but yeah, I don't know if I'd really
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: love the under there, even though a big matchup like that,
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: sometimes the teams do come out and play intense defense
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: or whatever. I'm going to slightly leave Virginia Tech just
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: because they looked bad in their most recent game and
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: Pitt did not. But, you know, again, it's explainable by
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: bad weather. It was kind of a weird spot and
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech, outplayed BC by way more than what it
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: looks like on the scoreboard in that game. So I'm
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: going to leave Virginia Tech, even though I'm not a
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: James Franklin fan. Yeah, one of these teams is going
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: to get their first loss, and we'll see. Yeah, Virginia
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: Tech kind of unexpectedly good to start the season. All right,
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: CBS Sports, Liberty at Delaware, which I believe is a
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: Conference USA matchup, if I'm not mistaken. Delaware just got
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: blown out by Virginia in their last game. Liberty has
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: extra time off, though, but I don't know if that's
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: going to help them that much. Liberty, we saw them
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: in the middle of the week last week on Thursday.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: They beat Coastal Carolina in what was also kind of
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: a bad weather game, but I had it on for
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: a while. It was supposed to be bad weather. That
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: was also during the Nor'easter, but it looked like the
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: weather wasn't that bad for the majority of that game,
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: and the offenses definitely did not struggle a whole lot there,
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: especially not Liberty's. Liberty has played really nobody yet, though.
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: Their biggest opponent was James Madison. They did lose that
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: game by seven. We missed by a half point with
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: that one on the show. Liberty's definitely not battle-tested, though. Now, yes,
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: they do have an extra day off, or two extra
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: days off compared to Delaware. Delaware, they've played a more
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: difficult schedule, though. Their two losses are to Vanderbilt and Virginia,
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: both on the road. And they also beat Coastal. But
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: I think people are going to look at that, the
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: common opponent, oh, Delaware barely beat Coastal. And yeah, I
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: think they probably actually should have lost that game against Coastal.
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: If you saw how that game played out, I'm pissed
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: because I had Coastal in my pick seven entry to
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: cover the spread, and they somehow didn't even cover. Coastal
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: definitely played better than what it looked like on the
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: scoreboard there, which is kind of a knock against Delaware.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: But I think people are going to look at that, oh,
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: Liberty crushed Coastal, and Delaware didn't beat them by that much.
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: And I think people are going to draw the wrong
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: conclusion there and think, oh, yeah, Liberty's going to kill
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: Delaware here now. Although Delaware, again, they play the more
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: difficult schedule, playing two power conference teams, whereas Liberty has
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: not played any power conference teams. Liberty looks like they're
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: getting the money, 75% of tickets, 83% of the cash,
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: but I would hold off on saying that a little
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: bit because they're a seven-point favor to six and a half.
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: You know seven is a key number, and if the
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: public is on Liberty, which I believe they are because
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: they have the better record, they've looked like the better team,
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: and people saw them in primetime last week and probably
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: liked what they saw. The fact that this line has
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: not moved up to that key number, and in fact
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: it's gone down a little bit to six and a half,
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: that tells me that the books are okay with taking
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: the public action on Liberty. And I think there is
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: some money coming in at Delaware to hold that number
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: down a little bit. I lean Delaware in this game,
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: plus the points, especially if you can get seven. If
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: you're going to play Delaware, I would try to get
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: the seven on this if you can. The total's not
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: that high either. It's a 49 and a half, basically. So, again,
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: I like taking underdogs when it's going to be a
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: lower scoring game, too. Plus, again, the home team usually
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: has a little bit of a boost when they're playing
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: at home on a primetime game like this it's kind
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: of isolated so delaware you know they're pretty new to
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: fbs so they're not really used to games like this
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: liberty is played in a lot more of these that
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: delaware has which does mean they're more experienced as a
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: program but and yes i was high on liberty uh
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: this season i thought they might uh high on liberty
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: that's the uh the libertarian convention slogan probably uh sounds
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: pretty lame but yeah i thought liberty uh was one
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: of the teams that was going to be in the
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: running to win this conference this year. Even so, I
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: don't love them in this particular game here. I would
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: lean towards taking the points with Delaware. Libertarian Goth, what's up?
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: Thanks for checking out the show. I love you too. Garrett, yes.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: I didn't fade them. Dude, once I saw that Nola
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: was announced, I was like, yeah, that was bad, dude.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: They should have gone with Wheeler. I know Wheeler pitched
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: in the middle of the game and he didn't look
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: that good, but Nola... He gave up three runs in
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: the first inning, I'm pretty sure. Nola set the tone
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: for that game. He's the main reason they lost. That
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: was stupid. If I was a manager, dude, I'd be
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: looking at matchup numbers and being like, yeah, in a
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: game like this, we cannot start Nola. We just can't
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: do it. Sorry. Yeah, well, good luck against the Dodgers.
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: I don't see that happening for you. Um, the Dodgers
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: have an extremely deep pitching rotation. Like the Dodgers are
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: going to have no games where they, where they have
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: a weak starting pitcher. So I don't know if any
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: of them match up poorly against the Braves, but the
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: Braves have one good starter. I'm sorry, man. Um, Yeah,
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: who cares? That was regular season when the Dodgers didn't
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: give a shit. How many of those games did the
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: Dodgers start like Emmett Sheehan and Roki Sasaki and whatever
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: against them? You can't look at that because the Dodgers...
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: How many times did the Braves face Snell and Glasnow?
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: Because those guys are in the Dodgers starting rotation now,
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: but I bet they didn't even pitch against the Braves
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: during the regular season. So you cannot look at the
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: regular season record against the Dodgers because the Dodgers were just...
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: They were on cruise control for half the season. You
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: know what they do. Their starting pitching rotation in the
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: playoffs is completely different than what it was during the
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: regular season. So no, you cannot weigh that. The Dodgers
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: are a minus 230 favorite. No, I cannot let anybody
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: be happy. The Dodgers are a minus 230 favorite to
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: win that series. And I think it's almost guaranteed they're
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: going to win game one. Unless Chris Sale is going
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: to pitch on... on short rest or whatever. It's going
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: to be some real bad pitcher for the Braves in
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: game one. What are the Braves even going to do
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: in game one? They have to play tomorrow. They just
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: used a bullpen game. Seriously, what are the Braves even doing?
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know what else to tell you. Dirty Sock,
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. you're in time for
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: the play I'm going to give out, and I'm going
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: to go against what I just said about the home
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: team getting a boost, even though Northwestern here in this
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: game against Penn State, Northwestern is, this is going to
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: be their home opener in their new stadium, even though
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: they've already played at least one home game this year,
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: but they were still playing in the medical center field,
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: the temporary stadium, which I think is still on campus,
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: that they've been playing in the last few years while
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: their new stadium is being built. This is going to
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: be the opener for for the new stadium here for Northwestern. However,
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: I'm going to fade them here. And if you know
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: how I handicap, you know why. This is a spot
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: where I think it's a bounce back for Penn State.
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: And I think it's like a hangover spot for Northwestern,
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: even though, yeah, there's going to be excitement. It's the
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: new stadium, whatever. But even Northwestern is not going to
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: be used to playing in this new stadium. So, you know,
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know they probably practice here and whatever,
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: but still they haven't played an actual game here yet. Yeah,
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: there'll be hype around it. Yeah, the crowd will be there. Yes,
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: it's a Friday night game at home on Fox. Penn
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: State's still the better team, though, man. And I think
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: the public might, you know, hesitate on that because Northwestern's
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: looked really good. And what did we see last? Northwestern
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: lost by six in primetime to Indiana last week. So, yes,
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Northwestern does have extra rest as well. They played, I believe,
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: last Friday. And, yeah, look at what happened in this game, man.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: Northwestern was hanging with Indiana in this game, at Indiana,
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: no less. Northwestern is a 21-point underdog, basically. They were
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: within two points with, like, four minutes left, and they
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: were under two minutes to go. This is a two-point game,
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: and then Indiana was able to put it away, going
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: up two scores with a late touchdown, and then Northwestern
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: kicked a field goal, I guess, and then tried to
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: get the ball back on an onside kick or whatever.
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: obviously they were not able to do that. I think
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: they took too much time. Like if you're going to
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: kick the field goal, you should kick the field goal quick.
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: Give yourself more time to try to get the ball back,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: you know. But this was also misleading. Indiana won. They
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: should have won this game more easily. Indiana outgained Northwestern
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: by over 100 yards. This game wasn't really that close statistically.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: Indiana dominated the time of possession. So it was a
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: little bit misleading. But when you have a team that's
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: coming off a monster effort like that, Northwestern, you know,
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: Against a team like Indiana, who's the returning champs, it's
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: still one of the top teams in college football. Monster,
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: monster effort from Northwestern. You know what I always say,
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: when you come off a game like that, I think
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: it's tough to get back up off the mat after that.
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: It's a hangover spot. They were in that game, thought
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: they might be able to pull off a monster upset
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: and fell just short against Indiana. And immediately I was like,
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: I'm looking to fade Northwestern here. But then I was looking,
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: I was like, oh crap, they're going to play a
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: ranked Penn State team. In their home opener in the
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: new stadium, they're probably going to get up for that
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: game still. And then what happened? Oh yeah, Penn State
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: got completely knocked out of the rankings because they lost.
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: to Wisconsin. So now I'm like, we can actually do this,
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: I think, because Penn State is coming off a bad loss.
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: And now I do say sometimes that when a team
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: takes their first loss, the deeper into the season is
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: the worse that it is, though. The deeper into the
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: season that that is, the worse that it is. So
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: I don't know how bad this really is, but a
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: lot of times when a team takes their first loss,
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: they do get hung over into the next game. So
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: that's the question. Is Penn State going to be hung
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: over after a loss like that? I'm not so sure.
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: And the other question is, is it a dream crusher?
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: Because I told you going into the season, Penn State
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: had a really easy schedule. Although it looks like, you know,
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're going to have a couple of games
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: in here. I don't think they're really likely to win.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, maybe they'll be able to beat USC at home.
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: I think at Michigan is not going to be easy
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: for them. But, you know. I do think they bounce
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: back and get this one, though. But again, are they
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: going to be in a dream crusher mode? I'm going
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: to say no, they're not. And looking at Matt Campbell
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: staring at me here, I don't know. Makes me think
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: he's going to get his team up for this game still.
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I've never been a huge Campbell fan,
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: and I don't know if he's really going to wind
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: up doing that well here in the Big Ten. Because remember,
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: he was at Iowa State most recently. He brought a
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: bunch of his guys over, including Becht here. I don't
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: think Beck is that good, but I actually think he's
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: the better quarterback here because Northwestern is using Childs, who
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: was at Michigan State. Now, Michigan State has Northwestern's old coach,
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: Pat Fitzgerald, and Northwestern has Michigan State's former quarterback, Childs.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't think Childs is that good. I
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: think Penn State's still the better team. I think they've
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: still got the better QB here. Penn State coming off
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: that disgusting loss to Wisconsin. Penn State was like a
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: double-digit favorite here. And again, you know what I say.
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: When you have a team that lost or played really
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: badly as a double-digit favorite, they usually get back up
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: for that. And again, the rankings makers have overreacted again.
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: Penn State was ranked number 13 in the country, and
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: now they take a loss to a Wisconsin team that
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: hasn't been that bad so far this year. Penn State,
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: you know, Wisconsin's only loss is to Notre Dame, so
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: at least there's that, although they haven't faced difficult opponents otherwise.
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: Although Penn State, I mean, again, Penn State's not really
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: that easy to beat, especially in Happy Valley. But the
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: rankings makers have bounced them completely from the rankings. I
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: feel like I'm all over the place on this game,
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: but hopefully you get what I'm saying. Like this year
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: more than any other year that I've seen, we've seen
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: teams like in the middle of the rankings like this
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: get completely knocked out of the rankings. Because of one performance.
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: And again, I think that's an overreaction. I think Penn
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: State might still be a top 25 team in the
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: country here, possibly. Even though I know the rankings makers
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: might have had them overranked. when they were number 13,
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: but now to bounce them completely after one bad game?
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. And yes, they had a bad game.
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: There's no doubt about that. Wisconsin won the game legitimately.
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: Wisconsin kind of dominated the game here, you know, like
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: yardage-wise and whatever. But I still just think when you
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: simplify this whole thing, you have the better team, Penn State,
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: coming off a disgusting loss that they should bounce back from.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: And I don't think it's going to be a dream
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: crusher because, again, What were Penn State's goals this year?
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: After last year was so bad, even though you saw
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: the easy schedule, a lot of people were saying, a
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: lot of experts, a lot of professional bettors were even
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: saying that they thought because of Penn State's path, they
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: had a decent shot to make the playoffs this year.
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: And even that's not out of the question. I mean,
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: you're in the Big Ten. If you're going to wind
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: up being like a one-loss team in the Big Ten... Yeah,
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: you're right there in the playoff discussion still. So Penn
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: State is not done yet. And if you're going to
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: have a bad loss, it's better to take it early
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: in the season because the committee tends to overlook that shit.
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: And they weigh things at the end of the season
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: too heavily and overrate things more recently too heavily. Everybody's
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: recency biased. So I don't think Penn State's in a
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: dream crusher. Plus, again, I don't know if they're realistic.
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: I don't think they were realistically thinking they were going
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: to win the championship or anything like this. I think
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: their goal this year was bringing the new guy, bringing
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: the new system here, have a better season, have a
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: winning season, right? Like, even though I believe last year
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: they still snuck into a bowl game last year, but still,
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: you know, yeah, it was a bad season for Penn State.
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: So I think the goal was have a winning season,
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: win like 10 games this year, you know what I mean?
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: whatever that was. They could still do that. They could
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: definitely still win 10 games. They're going to have to
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: win at home against USC. And yes, I realize that
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: is their next game. So there is a potential look
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: ahead here. But if that's their goal, they can't overlook
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: anybody at this point. You know what I mean? And
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: they're less likely to overlook Northwestern now that Penn State
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: just took a real bad loss. They shouldn't really overlook
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: anybody now. And after Northwestern looks so good against Indiana,
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: I think Penn State is going to be on notice
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: and take Northwestern seriously after that. I think Penn State
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: goes in and spoils Northwestern's party here, man. And the
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: money agrees with me on this. Oh, sorry, I forgot.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: There it is. Penn State. This is the last game
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: I'm talking about on the show. This is my one
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: play today. 58% of tickets, 70% of the cash on
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: Penn State. You can find it at two and a half.
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: It is juiced, though. You can lay the minus three,
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: I guess. Or, you know, if you want to go
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: money line on this, you could do that, too. I
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: found a minus 2.5 at about minus 117 or something
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: like that at one of the books out there. So
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: I'd be willing to lay up to about minus 120
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: to get the minus 2.5, I'd say, because you know
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: three is a very key number. So I like it.
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: I still wouldn't be opposed to laying the three. The
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: money seems to agree with me on this Penn State call,
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: so let's do it. We also have a public over here,
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: and it's a very low total, and the total's dropped significantly.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: from an initial 47, which is a key number, by
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: the way, down below that key number to 45.5. So
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: it looks like there is some actual money fading the
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: public here and taking the under in this game. Both
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: teams are coming off low-scoring games anyway. It could be
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: a low-scoring game for sure. And I'm still pissed, by
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: the way, that I did not put the Browns in
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: my pick five entry yesterday because I was on the
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: verge of maybe doing it because I really hate the
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: NFL board. this week, you know, and like, I don't know.
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: I liked the fate of Pittsburgh after their big win
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: over Cincinnati, but it was just like, I heard so
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: much talk about, well, I'll talk about that in a minute. Anyway,
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: Penn State, yeah, they're the call here. Still wouldn't disagree
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: with the under in that game either, but it's, you know,
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: I know I don't like laying points with a low total,
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: but with a small spread like that where you're basically
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: just asking them to win the game, I'm going to
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: do it anyway. But anyway, the Browns, before I get
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: out of here, that Browns-Steeler game I mean, the Browns
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: had the game. I mean, they were winning by two
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: scores pretty much the whole game. Pittsburgh made that ridiculous
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: comeback and then got the two-point conversion, a tie at
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: late after that late touchdown after they, I believe they
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: converted on like a third and long, fourth and long.
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: But then Cleveland, they left Cleveland enough time to actually
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: get down the field. Deshaun Watson leads them on another
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: winning drive. Cleveland Browns, three and one. Who would have
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: expected that? Game-winning drive, field goal at the very end
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: for Watson. But yeah, I'm still pissed because that was
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: one of my stronger-ish opinions on what I think is
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: a very bad NFL board this week, and I didn't
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: put it in my pick five, my contest entry, and
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: I'm fucking pissed about that. I should have, because I
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: feel like maybe I felt more strongly about that than
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: some other games, but you saw the trends that I
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: talked about yesterday. Cleveland constantly winning on Thursday night, but Stefanski,
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: their coach, he's a really good Thursday night coach, as
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: we saw with Atlanta the other day, and he's gone,
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: and Cleveland has a new coach now, Monk, and first-time coach,
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: and there are actually trends against first-time coaches, so I
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: forgot to mention that yesterday. First-year head coaches actually do
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: bad on Thursday night, so there were some trends that
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: were kind of going against Cleveland in that game, too,
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: even though Cleveland has now won five home games in
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: a row against the Steelers. They've won I believe eight
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: straight Thursday night games now, which is ridiculous. And yeah,
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: but there was also a trend in favor of the
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: Steelers where Aaron Rodgers has a really good record against Cleveland.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: But that to me, that was just like, well, yeah,
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: of course, like Cleveland sucks. Like Rodgers is just he's
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: playing against them when he's on a better team. Like
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: some of that was when he was on Green Bay, probably,
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: you know, whatever. Anyway, I think that is what I
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: got here. Um, and I think I was right about
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: both college football games yesterday. Wasn't I? Or no, I
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: guess maybe Tulsa covered cause they wound up losing by
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: one and overtime.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know.
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: What was the line on that game? Uh, I was
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: right about, uh, New Mexico state though. They won easily.
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: Let me see. I saw North Texas was up late.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: North Texas did not cover. Uh, they were up late,
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: but then the game went into overtime. Um, yeah. Uh,
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: high scoring game though for that one anyway. So yeah,
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: my leads were one on one. Uh, going against the market,
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: but I still think my one-on-one was closer than the
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: market one-on-one because the one blowout win I was correct about,
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: so there you go. Dirty Sock, what's up? They were
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: definitely not perfect. I was wrong about, I don't know,
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: let me see, NHL.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: Hmm.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: I was right about Buffalo. I was right about the Rangers. Um,
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: I was right about the, uh, Philadelphia. Well, Philadelphia, if
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: you took the plus one puck line, that was a push,
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: but it did go into overtime. So debatably, I was
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: right about that. I was wrong about Nashville, wrong about Calgary. Um,
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: Utah Chicago I didn't have a great lead uh read
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: on I obviously got San Jose right and then I
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: was also correct Edmonton team total over I was correct
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: about as well um and if you if you actually
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: were insane enough to lay that puck line that was
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: correct as well i mean it looked like it was
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: going to be real easy edmonton was up four nothing
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: but edmonton's defense is horrible dude edmonton's going to be
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: playing a lot of high scoring games man i mean
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: that it's their defense is so bad their goaltending is
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: so bad like they're gonna have to just outscore every
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: opponent like that's edmonton has an elite offense and they
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: have a terrible defense and terrible goaltending it And they
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: never fix it. You've known that that's been what they
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: are for years now. They lost two Stanley Cups in
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: a row. So it's like, hello, you guys need to
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: fix your fucking deep bets. And they're like, nah, we're
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: not going to do that. We'll make it even worse.
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: How about that? Oh, my God. Yeah, that's going to
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: do it. I think that was it, right? Yeah. We
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: covered NHL, college football, WNBA. All right. Learn to tote
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram, you know. the things. Like,
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here. You'll get notified when I
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: go live. I'm going to have a massive college football
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: show to do. I don't know when I'm going to
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: do it because I'm going to be at the Smashing
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: Pumpkins show tonight. It's going to be all Smashing Pumpkins.
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: An evening with the Smashing Pumpkins where there's going to
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: be no opener. Smashing Pumpkins are going to do two
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: full sets. Play for like three hours. They're focusing on
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: Melancholy and the Infinite Sadness in one of the sets
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: and then doing... you know, the other hits in the
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: other set, whatever the fuck, you know, it'll be, yeah,
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: another Smashing Pumpkins set, basically, that does not focus on melancholy,
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: which still is their best album, by the way. I
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: know a lot of people think it's all filler because
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: it's a double disc, but I think the vast majority
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: of it is quite good, so I don't think there's
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: that much filler on it, to be honest. It's just
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: they're experimenting with a bunch of different styles. You might
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: like some of them, you might not. I mean... I'm
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: not a huge fan of some of the songs that
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: are on it, but still, I like the vast majority
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: of it. Anyway, yeah, so that'll be fun, but I
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: don't know when I'm going to be back to do
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: the college football show, and I don't want to be
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: up until 3 a.m. like I usually am, but that
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: might be what winds up happening.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: I don't love doing it that much earlier because, you know,
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I like to let the market settle
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: a little bit more, and I don't know. We've got
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: to figure it out. I have some ideas for what
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: my plays are going to be this week already, though.
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: We will find out. Anyway, yeah, comment, like, subscribe, all
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: the stuff on the YouTube. Hype it up. Pump it up,
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: as Elvis Costello would say. Whatever. We've got some new
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: subscribers here, so that's all right. We've gotten, I don't know,
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: 10 new ones or so over the past week or so,
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: so all right. Let's keep it going, man. Let's get
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: to 1,000. Come on. It's a slow climb. Audio, we
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: need to get another weekend spike here like we had
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: last week. So listen on Spotify, Apple, Spreaker. Covered in
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: Uke is my ukulele channel on YouTube. I got to
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: put my last couple of covers up there. I started
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: some Halloween-ish covers. I did Don't Fear the Reaper yesterday,
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: which I believe I've done it before, but I did
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: it a little bit differently, and I mimicked the cowbell
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: with my tongue in it, so there you go, although
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: I can't whistle anymore, and I was trying to whistle
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: the creepy bridge part, but whatever. It's on Twitter right now.
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: Go check it out, but it'll be on YouTube eventually soon. Patreon.com
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: slash LearnToToad if you want to support me over there.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: Loser cast every Tuesday night. I believe that is it.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: Let's get this win today, man. One play today. Let's
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: get a winning day. That's all I got to say.
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: I appreciate it, everybody. Even Garrett. I'm messing with you all, man. Mr.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: Pinsey hasn't been back because you know I'm going to
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: be anti-Yankees for a while, even though I think they're
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: going to beat the Rays today. The Yankees are a
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: road favorite in that series. Like I said, you saw
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: my bracket. I think the Yankees are the best team
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: in the AL. The AL is fucking shit. So I
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: think the Yankees basically get a free pass to the
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: World Series, and then we need them to lose the
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: World Series. That's what we need to happen. They're not
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: going to lose until then. That's going to do it.
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold.
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: On Let me pull you.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: Out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: the crown Hold on.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Hold on Stay with me now.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.