Latest / The Curve / TCW33: Is there a run on the stock market or are Gen Z just not buying shoes?

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TCW33: Is there a run on the stock market or are Gen Z just not buying shoes? · The Curve

• 0:00
  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly. The podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
• 0:06
  business and stock market tea. Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives
• 0:10
  and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me, I'm poor.
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  So we were deciding how to start this podcast episode and there's just been so many things
• 0:19
  happening in our lives. Yeah. And we thought, do we start by talking about the mice and
• 0:24
  selfs house? The fact that you're going on a date with a married man. Hold on.
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  The fact that she fell over and smashed her iPhone on a birthday. Sorry, we can have
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  one with another one. It's just one more PC. I did not want to date with a married man.
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  It was a friend date. A friend date? Yeah. It was a friend date.
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  It was a friend date. No, it wasn't. You're making it sound so much more doggie.
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  It's not doggie. It's not doggie. No, no, no, no. This is a friend from when I met him when
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  I was here last year and he took me out on what, you know, when you go out for a dinner or lunch
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  or whatever and you're looking at everyone and you're like, they're on a date, they're friends,
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  that's her uncle and you can kind of guess. Yeah. If you were guessing based on what it looks like,
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  it definitely you would look at, have looked at us and be like, they're on a date, but we
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  define you're not. Yeah. But we did go to a really lovely restaurant. It's always funny when you see
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  people on a first date. Oh, you can just tell. And when it's not vibing and you just want to go up
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  to them and be like, guys, just quit while you're here. Or people who are both on their phones
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  at a beautiful restaurant and a site, you've obviously got nothing to talk about. They've probably
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  been married for 20 years and just have no interest in engaging while they're out. But anyway,
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  yeah, God, I started my birthday talking. I was like, video calling my dad's stepmom, step sister,
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  like just staring at the screen and they were like, let's see your house. And I was like, staring
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  at the screen, not looking at where I was walking. And I just fell over a step and then
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  inside your house. No, no, outside. I just showed them the outside and I fell over and
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  smashed my phone, screen on the ground, twisted my ankle. I was like, this would happen on my birthday
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  morning, wouldn't it? You know, and it wasn't even just like a little crack down the middle. It's
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  like, it's like, it's like, I need a new phone spiderweb everywhere. And I was just like, God,
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  honestly, can someone just give me a bloody break?
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  I can't.
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  And I've been to a bad room at my house because there's mice in the kitchen and I'm just like,
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  I can't handle it. No, it's happened in three, something else happened last night but I actually
• 2:25
  just can't even share it yet because I haven't talked to you about it and I feel it's not actually one
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  of those things I want to talk about it. Because I think I might cry. So I just need to not.
• 2:34
  Yeah, we need to say that one. Maybe at some point it'll be a share on here, but I think I know.
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  Do you? Well, can you guess? Was it about after something that you did a few weeks ago?
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  And you had silence and then now? No, no, no, no, no, no. It wasn't a ghosting situation. It's
• 2:54
  actually shit. It's a friend, like one of my best friends is dating one of my exes and she called
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  me about it last night and I just like, bald, my eyes are. I'll tell you offline. I don't want to go
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  into it because I actually genuinely will get upset. What ex and what friend? Yeah, I know. The
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  whole thing's so messed up, but I don't want to. I genuinely will get upset. And no one needs to
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  hear that on a Monday morning. Ex-boyfriend that you have. No, no, no, it's not a podcast chat. It's
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  definitely not. So your job, this podcast episode is to make me laugh. Oh, dear God. Okay, well,
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  I won't tell you then, you know, the fact that Netflix has started to do really well again,
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  just after you've sold your shares. Have it. Oh, so that's just kicking you while you're down.
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  Really? Are they doing even better? The thing about this though, that you've said that to me,
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  heaps, you're like, you know, the reason you don't sell when things are up is because they could
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  keep going up. And the reason you don't sell things when they're down is because they could reverse
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  and go back up. But I'm so hard to know and this is why we always say, you know, I guess for the
• 4:01
  long term, but it is, it's true because things got up and down like Netflix hasn't had it right
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  time in the sun when everyone was at home with COVID and everything. Then it had a bit of a lull.
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  Then it was like, you know, we're going to crack down on password sharing. And everyone was like,
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  is that going to actually move the needle? And it has moved the needle a lot. They've got a
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  huge boost in revenue from it. And their share prices obviously reflected that. Right. Yeah,
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  had a big, big jump on what day was it? Tuesday. It rose from $412 to $440, which doesn't sound
• 4:37
  like a lot because it's a big jump for a big company. Yeah. Anyway, so it's up 40% this year,
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  which is quite wild. When did you sell your shoes? It was for our trip to Italy. So in June?
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  I think I did really well. They're kind of bubbled along. No, I think I sold not sold at the top,
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  but I doubled my money in Netflix. Yeah, I put in, I think, $1,500 or $3,000, I can't remember.
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  And it had doubled. Like, I'd got over 100% online. So I'm kind of like, you know what?
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  Yes, I know I could go up again, but I was in such a dire situation. And at first,
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  I needed that money. And secondly, I could pull it out at a time where I didn't lose money. Yes.
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  And because you've been talking lately about that Michael Burry, is that a man? And how he's
• 5:25
  predicting this giant stock crash. And I mean, who knows what's going to happen? If you didn't
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  listen to last week's episode, maybe do. Because that video's gone viral on TikTok. I was
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  going to look at TikTok. Not a million views in like three days. But from that, you know how recently
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  I've been like, God, I just need to take a lump sum out of my investment so that I have an
• 5:45
  emergency fund because I don't think I quite realised how lucky I was when I was desperate for money
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  and had to take it out of my investments. I didn't realise how lucky I was that those were doing
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  well because I would have been so devastated if I'd had to take money out and I'd lost it.
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  And I had no choice but to take it out. And that's the reality of not having an emergency fund.
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  Exactly. And I think it's a really good lesson is that yes, you were lucky. It could have been
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  the other way around. And Netflix hadn't done well. Whatever you invested in it would have been.
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  You've been in a worse financial situation. And that's exactly what we do not want at the curve
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  is people to get themselves into worse financial situations. We're trying to improve on what's
• 6:29
  in upwards. But yes, anyway, it is also good lesson that companies share prices go up and down
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  no matter what they do or operate. And she's really not concentrating. She's checking yourself out
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  but that's fine. It's just like sometimes it's hard because you sit down. So I think sometimes
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  an outfit can look fine when you're standing. And then as soon as you sit, it looks so bad.
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  I mean, I just want to get it myself. I look like just in Timberlake.
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  Yeah, you do. All Britney Spears and her like 90s denim on denim era.
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  Yeah. I love wearing shit like that though. And you're just kind of being swamped in your clothes.
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  Yeah. Love it. Okay. So Netflix is doing super well.
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  Yes. Yep. Yep. So this password crackdown, they have really seen the benefits of that. So
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  unless people are using each other's accounts and getting in their own.
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  I'm staying at a friend's house this week because of the my saga in my house.
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  I'm having to evacuate it quite a quick polish that I can't deal with my must get out of the house
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  kind of way. Yeah. Anyway, so a friend of mine's in Turkey for the week and he was like,
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  you're welcome to use the house. Thank God. And he went on to his account and I was
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  watching Netflix and I'm just ignoring your comment. And he's got the hills and all these other
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  things. So he's obviously had like a girlfriend or a girl or like someone else on his account.
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  Could you just be him? He's not watching the hills. I mean, it's so obvious.
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  Yeah. Like I went on and was like classic. I said, I'm watching gossip girl last night.
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  Yeah. Eating my feelings and watching gossip girl. Oh, you're nice.
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  I was like, this is one of those classic times where someone would be like,
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  your password's showing because there's no fucking way that he's watching gossip girl.
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  So there's this company called Nvidia. Oh, I loved this one. Yeah. Which is,
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  it's been you've spoken about this before. Yeah. It's been the poster child for AI. So they make
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  they make chips that go in that help with AI. So there's very much a pure play.
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  If you wanted to get exposure to artificial intelligence and you wanted to pick one company,
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  you know, this would be it because it's pretty much as whole businesses is benefiting from AI.
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  Have you invested in this business? No, but I invest in Microsoft, at least in P500.
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  So this is a year. So, but this company has delivered over 200% return this year.
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  So only in August, like it's been, it's gone bananas. It's crazy. But is this one of those
• 8:43
  ones where it's like a boom and bust? Well, this isn't where it goes up and then it falls off the
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  cliff. So it reported its result last week. So basically quickly, what do they do? So they're
• 8:52
  basically an AI company. They make the chips that that help with automation for AI. So big data
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  or stuff. Yeah. So it's going into AI is going to need to use these chips. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So
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  they they had their result last week and there was a conversation around what investors were
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  a bit nervous. Okay. Are they going to be able to keep up with demand? Also, one thing that really
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  scares me with companies that do so well. So are up 200%. The expectations of the growth that they
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  have to deliver to justify that share price growth makes me nervous when you're heading into a
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  financial result is that all investors are invested in it. They've done really well. They're like,
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  oh my god, this company's going to keep growing, growing, growing. And if it disappoints slightly,
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  the share price can fall massively. Because if you think everybody's invested in it,
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  there's so much hype. It's done so well. And then if it's delivered, say, 100% revenue growth
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  instead of 120, that's a disappointment from an investor's point of view. And then that's when
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  investors sell. So it's all around expectations. But don't you think they'd be in a pretty good
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  position to continue to do really well if their business model's really strong? Well, this is the
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  thing. This is what he runs. Thanks. And then it's not to you get a result from the company that
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  you can actually see, okay, are they doing what they say they're doing? Are they doing what I
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  think they're doing? Is the outlook as good as investors thought or as I thought? You know,
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  like that's the only time you really get to look at a public company is when it reports its results.
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  There didn't results come out and they're actually quite good. Yeah. But this is what I mean,
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  it is a risk that if they could have been good, but not as good, or they could have been,
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  you know, but they were, they were amazing, which, which is great. In terms of their results
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  were amazing. Their results were amazing. And it went up again, which is, which was great for investors.
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  But with anything that does really, really well, has it peaked? Has it peaked? Yeah. Because there
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  is always going to be a top. You know, there is always going to be one investor that is the
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  last person that buys that share before it goes down. I don't know, it just makes me nervous.
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  Sometimes I would rather the slow and city grow like the Microsoft than the 200%.
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  So different to you. But these would work out. Change my tune and just start going.
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  I just think things that have big moves have big moves up and down. And that's what scares me.
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  But I guess there's someone like a, like that's what Tesla did. They went absolutely crazy.
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  Yeah. And then for me, also, if I'm sitting there and I've made 200% this year,
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  I'm thinking maybe I'll sell some. Do you know what I mean? Which what makes the share price?
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  Yeah, the more sellers. If the everyone's got that mindset, then they're like, maybe I'll sell
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  something. I don't know. It's just interesting. Do you think I could do a deep dive on this
• 11:31
  company? I'd love to learn more about them, like a stock store at some stage? Yeah, I just think
• 11:37
  not interested. I'd love to hear. Do you want to see me conductors? Yeah, I can't do. Yeah,
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  like I actually do because I think I feel like I'd do all the work and sit down and you'd just
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  be bored. Do you reckon? No, I don't. I think I'm really interested in AI. I don't think I
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  haven't any exposure to AI. And I'd like to learn more about AI ETFs, which is a really good way as
• 11:58
  well. Yeah, true. But yeah, anyway, it's just a case of, you know, share price movements are
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  all around expectations. You know, is this company still going to grow as I expect? Well,
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  there's a lot of stuff come out recently about AI and like the negative impacts and some of the
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  stuff that needs to be rained on around. Yeah. Even that, the other point that you put in the
• 12:19
  Curve Weekly email about scammers and how AI is now. Yeah. Basically, there's people, what did you
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  say that there's kids? There are artificial intelligence, which is replicating children's voices
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  and calling the parents and being like, hey, help. If I called with me, if I, the AI me,
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  called my mom was like, help. I'm overseas. I need some money. I'm in a dire situation.
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  My poor parents, they would print some money to heartbeats. Yeah. Like they would be like,
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  oh my gosh, of course, darling. No, it's not yourself. Wrong number.
• 12:55
  No, but that's terrifying. That's what AI is starting to. Yeah. Gosh, I know you've gone
• 13:01
  of the days with the email where, you know, there's a few spelling mistakes or you know,
• 13:05
  the English isn't quite right. And you're like, oh, this looks like a scam. Yeah, but
• 13:09
  you're gone of those days. It's quite scary. But I think maybe there's stuff like that that
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  will have a negative impact on AI companies, right? Because they'll be like, oh, there's
• 13:17
  going to have to be increased regulation and blah, blah, blah. But I don't know. I still feel
• 13:22
  like we're at the start of this AI journey. It feels almost like the new internet that's been
• 13:26
  invented. And I think that if there was a video, if there was like in a video that was the
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  you know, really booming off of the internet. Yeah. They still have a huge amount of runway to
• 13:38
  grow. I feel the same about AI, which is kind of why I'd be interested in learning more about
• 13:41
  this particular company. Yeah. Personally, I'd probably want to invest in an AI ETF because you get
• 13:47
  exposure to all of this. Or it's just like, nobody is great and it stuns fantastically well. But
• 13:52
  yeah, the next result, well, they could come up and be like, you know what, we've had issues with
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  increasing capacity and we can't give up the demand. Therefore, they can't keep up with their
• 14:00
  revenue, you know, and that means that other competitors are going to have to pick up the slack.
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  So if you're investing in a basket of these good, but if you're investing in a basket of these
• 14:09
  companies. So an ETF is essentially like a big basket of companies within an industry. So if you
• 14:15
  were investing in an ETF for AI, yeah, you would get access to different ones. So you're still
• 14:22
  you're still benefiting from the fame. You're investing in that fame. But you're not betting on one
• 14:27
  company. You're kind of going, you know what? I think AI is going to be a big part of our future.
• 14:32
  I want you to expose to it, but I don't quite know which company is going to be in a fit or
• 14:35
  I don't have time to research what companies are going to be. Yeah, maybe that's a good strategy for me.
• 14:38
  Yeah. Anyway, in other news, I mean, we've all probably been feeling it in terms of
• 14:44
  you're into what the cost of blowing. No, oh, yeah, no, I'm like, yeah, what's happening?
• 14:51
  Yeah, I'm so, yeah, I feel like six months we're talking about six months ago, we're talking about,
• 14:57
  you know, it's coming, it's coming, you know, we're heading into recession, inflations at,
• 15:02
  you know, six percent. But it kind of was like this storm or hurricane that you could see from
• 15:08
  the ocean coming in, but hadn't quite hit you yet, and also felt like it was going to pass.
• 15:12
  If I was going to divert and head in a different direction, and now all of a sudden we're like,
• 15:17
  straight shots, smack us on the face. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was like we were having a party thinking
• 15:22
  that it was gone, and then all of a sudden the party just, yeah, it's kind of like another lockdown,
• 15:26
  you know, yeah, it's just like boom, and you're in lockdown again. Everything is outrageous.
• 15:33
  And I think that if you're struggling at the moment to save, invest, get ahead of the curve,
• 15:38
  excuse the pun in any way. Yeah. Everyone's feeling it. Yes. It's been hard lately. Yeah.
• 15:44
  No, definitely. And I think the things that we cut back on or everyone will notice us with
• 15:50
  their own spending, like for me personally, it's like discretionary things. It's, it's, it's
• 15:55
  clothing. It's, you know, all those things that I can live without. I can't live without food.
• 16:00
  You know, so I mean, I could live without a pastry though. Yeah. Or a takeaway, something. Yeah.
• 16:05
  Like I can. But in terms like groceries. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
• 16:08
  Personal care products. But even like last night, I bought groceries from the corner shop.
• 16:14
  And it was 17 pounds. So that's what's that? Like just over 30 New Zealand dollars. Yeah.
• 16:21
  It made me dinner last night and lunch this morning. And I could have eaten that entire dinner
• 16:27
  in one sitting. I was hungry. So I toasted after it. Yeah. Sometimes you think buying groceries
• 16:32
  is going to be cheaper. Yeah. And then I mean, I didn't even have meat. It was like a roasted
• 16:36
  cauliflower scenario on that theme. And on the fact that I think now it's very much hit a lot of
• 16:42
  people. And there might be people listening going, God, it hit me a long time ago. But yes. No,
• 16:47
  I do feel like even talking to friends and family and people that own businesses. And yeah,
• 16:51
  it's everyone's feeling it in their own different way. But we've had a few results come out.
• 16:57
  And there was a conversation that a lot of younger people were almost immune to what was going on.
• 17:02
  Because they don't have mortgages. So they're not feeling the mortgage rate. You know,
• 17:06
  they're still employed. They don't have to pay, you know, they don't have kids. They don't have
• 17:10
  no these big expenses. So they weren't really feeling it. But it seems now, well, with the results
• 17:15
  that are coming out from these companies, that it's definitely flowed through now to companies.
• 17:20
  So footlocker, their shares fell 30% after their results. Also shoes are kind of essential.
• 17:27
  So that's kind of concerning. But I also think that they play on the hype of a new sneaker.
• 17:35
  And it's kind of like, you know, I've got my peer of working out. But yes. And they called out,
• 17:44
  it was just people literally not spending. So quite concerning, especially footlockers,
• 17:48
  share prices down 54% in the last year. And remember, we literally just spoke about the fact that
• 17:54
  Netflix was up 40. So there's huge discrepancies there. It almost feels like the necessities,
• 18:02
  or I mean, I know that Netflix isn't a necessity, but it's one of those things people are less likely
• 18:06
  to cut out. I think it's a small ticket item, you know, like it's a small purchase price.
• 18:10
  It's not going to like move someone's spending hugely. Yeah. But I think if things keep getting worse
• 18:17
  than you might, you might have Disney and Netflix, you're like, you know, I only need one. Yeah.
• 18:22
  Gosh, it's kind of scary. But there was another company JD Sports as well, which came out,
• 18:28
  which they had the result and they called out again, there's a sportswear store,
• 18:32
  they called out weakening spending in the US in particular. And this also, the interesting
• 18:37
  concept with this is when you have a company like Footlocker, which had a massive miss,
• 18:42
  so down 30%. Other companies start, other companies share prices in a similar industry,
• 18:49
  start to feel the same pain. So Adidas, this year price was fell, boomers fell, Nike,
• 18:55
  under armour, they all fell because investors are going, oh gosh, is this kind of like a leading
• 19:02
  indicator of what we're going to see from a Nike result and from an Adidas result. And so,
• 19:06
  yeah, usually no matter what industry it is, if it's a hotel company that has had the first one
• 19:12
  off the rank in terms of reporting the results and then all they come out with a random update
• 19:17
  and they say that, look, we're having a really shocking time, all the others will sell off
• 19:22
  all their share prices will fall. So again, it comes back to that diversification
• 19:26
  of investing in different sectors as well as, because if you had just really loved the sports
• 19:32
  industry and had shares in Adidas, Nike, under armour, Lula Lem and Footlocker, you would probably
• 19:39
  having a pretty tough week. So there's a balance between not investing what you know, because a lot
• 19:43
  of us will know those companies, but also investing in and spreading that risk and investing in
• 19:48
  different industries, different things you know, different things you use, all that kind of stuff.
• 19:53
  Also, this is a really good example of, we were hearing this, our spending patterns, we were
• 19:58
  cutting back on things like new clothing, all that kind of stuff. If you take us and multiply us
• 20:05
  by a few million, that's going to hurt shops. And so it's kind of, again, comes back to
• 20:10
  you're looking at your own spending patterns, you know, what are you still spending money on?
• 20:14
  Maybe you should be able to see my notes. Yeah, that kind of thing is, it's not as hard as it
• 20:19
  seems in terms of identifying the trends. It trends, yeah, yeah. So that's kind of what I think
• 20:26
  that's the lesson from that one. Yeah, and that's all I had for you, Sophie, alright?
• 20:30
  Well, I think there's a good time for a Curve Classroom club, don't you? Oh, yes.
• 20:33
  If you would like to learn more about investing and you would like to learn about how you can put
• 20:38
  together your own portfolio, you'll be learning from Vic, who obviously is a total expert.
• 20:42
  Thanks, babe. We've only got a couple of days left to join. So if you want to get involved,
• 20:50
  spaces are limited, so hurry up. Yes. There'll be, yeah, the doors for the classroom will be open
• 20:56
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• 21:00
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• 21:04
  find all those details and our show notes and any questions, please get in touch.
• 21:08
  And we hope to see you there. Yeah, let's get a wine. Let's get a wine, a tequila shot, all the above.
• 21:15
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