Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 50 : Prospect Category Helpers
Transcript
- 0:15Hello, and welcome everybody to episode fifty of Cards and Categories. I am
- 0:20Mike Coolard from ras Ball, joined as always by my very good friend Jeremy
- 0:24Burr, also from ras Ball. How you doing tonight, buddy, Fantastic
- 0:29episode fifty. It's the big five. Oh, I mean we have to
- 0:33reminisce here. We've now charted in three different countries on podcast charts. It
- 0:38doesn't matter how big your house small, but charted in a three. So
- 0:42you know, fifty episodes in big things still coming. So I'm I'm ready
- 0:46to go tonight. Yeah, the round numbers are really fun, and I
- 0:50wish I had something more fun planned for episode fifty, but I think I'm
- 0:55gonna save that for our kind of like one year anniversary, which is coming
- 0:59up in a couple of weeks during the All Star break. That's when we
- 1:02kicked the show off last year, just to because there wasn't any baseball on,
- 1:06so we might as well, like right fill that time. Like it's
- 1:10just a total withdrawal for three days. It's no fun, but we've got
- 1:14a great show. Tonight. We're going to talk about some prospects or players
- 1:19kind of near to promotion either this year or even going into next year that
- 1:23I think in Dynasty and Keeper leagues you can certainly pick up and expect some
- 1:29production pretty soon. And what we're really honing in on tonight are guys who
- 1:34can help you in specific categories. So it is starting to get to the
- 1:37point in our fantasy rotisserie seasons where we are specifically looking at categories to hunt
- 1:45to try to move up and down those standings. So we've got a handful
- 1:48of names that I think can help all of our listeners out there. And
- 1:52I mean, I guess I'll let people into a little bit of like how
- 1:55the sausage is made here in terms of the podcast that we obviously have a
- 1:57rundown where we update things, and I can say that we were joking that
- 2:04we should have recorded this thing last night because two of the guys that we
- 2:07have we'll just discuss some kind of maybe a little bit off the bat here
- 2:09are being called up. One just debuted tonight and hit a homer in Baltimore
- 2:15that is Jon Esky Noel from the Cleveland Guardians. And then David Festa is
- 2:20going to be entering the league here to make a start for the Minnesota Twins.
- 2:23Over the next few days, and we had them both in our rundown
- 2:27before we started getting into this tonight as we're speaking on June twenty sixth,
- 2:31So yeah, good thing. Maybe we didn't record it last night because we
- 2:36might be put to the stake as witches pretty much. I mean, we
- 2:42could be taking everybody down. But we're gonna take our victory lap now,
- 2:45whether deserved or not. You'll just have to believe us. So I mean,
- 2:49yeah, I mean, Noel looks like a winner already. Right,
- 2:51he's on pace for infinite number of homers, you know, one per game,
- 2:54so right, career ahead of him. But let's start in with some
- 2:59of our tip news and notes. We've got a bevy of injuries again this
- 3:04week and just other suspensions and returns and all sorts of stuff going on.
- 3:08It's been a pretty chaotic week, I think in terms of baseball across the
- 3:14league, as especially in the National League, things are really tightening up around
- 3:17that second and third wild card spot, actually just all the wild card spots,
- 3:22because pretty much only the Rockies and honestly not even the Nationals are out
- 3:29of it at this point, so you're looking at just about every team in
- 3:32the National League being in it, so I think that's why we're getting a
- 3:35lot of this movement. But the first one's really going to hurt and have
- 3:38an impact on the National League wildcard chances for the Padres. That is,
- 3:43Fernando Tatist Junior is hitting the aisle with a stress reaction in his right femur.
- 3:49Originally they thought it was some sort of quader steps pull, and it
- 3:52does sound like it's going to be a fairly significant injury that Originally the Padres
- 3:58were calling for Tatis to be out through the All Star break, which is
- 4:01around three weeks away from here, and it sounds like it might even be
- 4:05pushing towards the end of July. So this is another injury that really mars
- 4:11Tatusa's overall profile. And I'm wondering, brew are you considering him as like
- 4:16a first round talent again going into next year knowing that, honestly, he's
- 4:20starting to get into a little bit of like the Aaron Judge injury prone territory
- 4:25at this point. Yeah. I mean, for all the jokes that we
- 4:29make about me drafting injured guys in the first and second round, I am
- 4:34avoiding the ghos guys like the plague. So I think Tatisa is starting to
- 4:40move into that. For me, like it's already hard enough to like not
- 4:43draft the Corbin Carrols who fall and fall apart, well, Hulio Rodriguez,
- 4:46right, but knowingly drafting the guy. I'll throw Tatis in there with Aaron
- 4:50Judge, and I get it, Aaron Judge is phenomenal. But when you
- 4:55throw those guys in there and you're kind of playing with fire on can you
- 5:00make it through the season with your top pick being healthy? And at this
- 5:03point, Tatis just hasn't shown the ability to do that. And you know,
- 5:09they they moved him to the outfield hoping that, you know, and
- 5:12can keep him healthy. Yeah. I mean he's getting one hundred and thirty
- 5:15games, one hundred and forty the last two seasons, you know, well
- 5:21say last two last two full seasons, he's played twenty one and twenty three.
- 5:27But otherwise he's he's missed significant time and he just he just constantly seems
- 5:32banged up. Uh. So I'm I'm pushing him in, you know,
- 5:38without the deep analysis here, probably in the mid second round before I'm willing
- 5:43to take that if I got a really solid first rounder. I'm willing to
- 5:46take that gamble just because of the upside, but I'm definitely starting to shy
- 5:51away from Tatis a little bit, how about you. Yeah, I mean,
- 5:56I think that's probably about where I'll be pushing his value as well as
- 6:00I mean, he was on pace to do just about what he did last
- 6:01year when he put up twenty five homers and twenty nine steals. He was
- 6:05pacing for like twenty eight and sixteen. So even the steels were a little
- 6:10bit late this year, the batting average did come back up from two fifty
- 6:14seven last year to two seventy nine this year, So I think when you
- 6:16do add it all together the projections. I'm looking at Zips right now for
- 6:20twenty twenty five, Zips has em pegged for thirty eight homers, twenty five
- 6:27steals, two sixty six average. I don't know if the power is ever
- 6:30gonna really fully come back after the shoulder injury and the wrist injury that he's
- 6:34dealt with over the past couple of years, and then obviously you throw in
- 6:39that ped suspension on everything, where I don't think the PD suspension was like
- 6:44or the peds were like leading directly to his forty homer season. But what
- 6:48it does is it helps with the recovery time, and especially for a player
- 6:53like Tatis who is constantly banged up and needs those extra days to recover.
- 6:57He also just plays balls to the wall like all out that. I think
- 7:01that's a portion of what's going on here too. So yeah, I think
- 7:05I'm probably in the same range as you, and I don't think we'll be
- 7:10getting to me Tatis shares because if you plug in a mid thirties homer projection
- 7:15and a mid twenty steels projection, that's a pretty easy first rounder. And
- 7:19I'll certainly be looking to tick down especially the power going into next year,
- 7:25and who knows, after this femur injury, the speed might disappear a little
- 7:30bit as well. Yeah, and that's the piece that I was most concerned
- 7:33about, is the speed is you know, the more you get banged up,
- 7:36the less you're likely to run. And to tease like, if he's
- 7:41not running, the talent's just out there. We've talked about it a lot
- 7:45in the past. You need to be able to run to be in those
- 7:47top rounds. If you're not hitting forty homers or hitting three thirty, right,
- 7:50you've got to be able to run, and if his speed starts to
- 7:54drop off, which it does seem like he's dropped off this year, even
- 7:57with the ability for everybody to run like crazy out out there. Yeah,
- 8:01I'm I'm gonna be very curious when he gets back, is he running kind
- 8:05of how much? Yeah? Definitely. And speaking of oft injured outfielders,
- 8:11I mean, I guess he's a DH nowadays. That is gian Carlos Stanton
- 8:13from the New York Yankees went down this week as he is on the ten
- 8:18dail with a hamstring injury, and so with that, it looks like it's
- 8:24gonna be three to four weeks most likely. I wouldn't be surprised that the
- 8:28Yankees also just manage this to ensure that they have Stanton down the stretch and
- 8:33into the playoffs. But it was certainly disappointing if you've been holding on to
- 8:37Stanton because he was hitting three h four in June before he hit the il.
- 8:41The Yankees' lineup has been humming, mostly because Aaron Judge has been playing
- 8:46out of his mind. So it's been a hot offense to have players in
- 8:52and so I just want to see from you, like, are there any
- 8:56Yankees players that you are ticking up in that lineup? Because what Stanton's injury
- 9:01is going to do is open up more time for our boy Ben Rice,
- 9:05a little bit time for Trent Grisham. The Yankees also acquire JD. Davis
- 9:09from the Athletics, and he should get time at corner, and dh should
- 9:15also allow Aaron Judge to actually designate hit every once in a while, not
- 9:18be on a s feet in center fields. So I think all those players
- 9:22have up arrows because of this Stanton injury. Any of them really peak your
- 9:26interest? Yeah, And I don't think there's a single guy that really jumps
- 9:31out because I think what you kind of stated is I think the extra playing
- 9:35time just gets spread all around a number of guys. If of anybody,
- 9:41I think Ben Rice is the biggest beneficiary because the trade to bring JD.
- 9:46Davis over it seemed like all of a sudden was going to cut into his
- 9:48playing time. So now if this does give him a little bit more playing
- 9:52time out there against hopefully the lefties, because I want to see what he
- 9:56can do, I think he has the best, biggest potential impact there.
- 10:01Trent Grisham's also won that I'm gonna be watching pretty closely because he's the kind
- 10:07of guy that he can just go off for like a month and be really
- 10:09fantastic and then you just toss him the waiver wire the rest of the year
- 10:13because he just doesn't what to do. So he's one of those guys that
- 10:16has a decent upside but also a decent down side. He's just a big
- 10:20variable guy. So if he gets some consistent playing time and you know,
- 10:24that short porch out there is definitely not gonna hurt anything for Grisham. So
- 10:30those are the two. Rice is the one that I'm a little bit more
- 10:31excited about, but fingers crossed, we'll see what transpires here over the next
- 10:35few days with JD. Davis and how much time that he's stealing from mister
- 10:41Rice. Yeah, exactly, and yeah, especially if you are in need,
- 10:46I think of speed and power and can sacrifice some batting average. I
- 10:50do think Trent Grisham is a great choice there. That reminds me a little
- 10:54bit of like what Cedric Mullens has been doing as he's been below the Mendoza
- 10:58line, but he's been worth five dollars worth of value in our player rating
- 11:03because of the stolen bases and just the when you're playing in a great offense
- 11:07like that, the runs and RBI just kind of come naturally. All right.
- 11:11Next injury we've got is Miami Marlins Picture hayes Us Sosarto is hitting the
- 11:16fifteen day DL for a back injury. He's going to be out four to
- 11:20six weeks. That really hurts for I think the Marlins overall is he was
- 11:24easily their biggest trade chip, I think going into the trade deadline here at
- 11:30the end of July and the I don't know, have you checked out the
- 11:35Marlins roster resource page recently and looked at their injured liss This is it's absurd.
- 11:41I was looking at the other night because I was actually just last night
- 11:45because I was writing about Yanni Cheery Nose as I was covering the Marlins game,
- 11:50and they have Sandy al Contra, Edward Cabrera, Braxton, Garrett hayes
- 11:54Uslzzaro, Yuri Perez, six Dos Sanchez, and Ryan Weathers all on the
- 11:58IL right now. I use just about all those players on teams everywhere that
- 12:05it's a bummer because the Marlins have a great home park and have been great
- 12:09at developing pitching, just can't keep it healthy. Surprisingly, Maximier did not
- 12:15come up with this corresponding move, as like I said, Yanni cheiros is
- 12:20up and they also called up somebody called Valante Peoso. So I don't know
- 12:24much about Bioso and I'll have to dive into his profile a little bit.
- 12:31As I mean, whenever inboy new comes up, that's prime candidate for in
- 12:35all only consideration. I guess my question here on this injury is what are
- 12:39we doing with Hames Slizardo? Is he dropable in leagues that you've had him?
- 12:45Or is the upside down the stretch just too tantalizing to let it go
- 12:50into the free agency pool for our fantasy teams. Yeah, I think for
- 12:54me with health, how how many injuries we've had in the pitching this year.
- 12:58From a longer term perspective, I think, you know, just just
- 13:03four to six weeks for Lozardo with I get it beat a back injury that
- 13:09the timeline is definitely a little bit more squishy. I'm I'm holding on to
- 13:11Lozardo at this point, and I think that it's it's a good enough gamble
- 13:18that he'll come back and give you some good starts, because he Lozard is
- 13:20one of those guys that you know, he we just talked about Tatis and
- 13:24Stanton, guys that just team to get hurt. Louzarro just fits into that
- 13:28as apparently the rest of the the Miami Marlin's rotation all between like twenty one
- 13:33and twenty eight years old, and they're all hurt. But I think Lozardo
- 13:37has enough upside there that he when he does pitch, he generally is,
- 13:43you know, really really valuable. He I'd say, probably a good number
- 13:46three upside of a number two. And so I'm holding on to Lozardo.
- 13:52I think, you know, to your point earlier as far as you know,
- 13:56what who were they? What are they trying to do with like a
- 14:01guy like Max Meyer? Like where where is Max Meyer? I think he'll
- 14:07be interesting to see, you know, is does he get an opportunity because
- 14:11throughout the last you know, let's call it a month in the minor leagues,
- 14:16he has yet to give up more than three runs in the start.
- 14:20That said, he also has not gone more than four innings in a start,
- 14:24and so it does look like they're really I say, metering Max Myers
- 14:28innings coming off of the injury, you know, like he did last year,
- 14:33so I think they're really trying to slow roll him back. And with
- 14:35the way they've been playing, you know that, I think the Marlins are
- 14:39counting their losses and not wanting to start any clocks or risk any more injuries
- 14:48because it seems like if you put them in Miami, they pitch, they
- 14:50get hurt. So I think they're just kind of keep them at bay at
- 14:54this point. Yeah, either too that it doesn't seem that they want to
- 15:00let Max Meyer go through a full season and really show what he can do.
- 15:03And it's a little bit unfortunate, but I think in the long run
- 15:07it probably does make sense because you can see that Miami's already teeing up twenty
- 15:13twenty five as a control will be back, and maybe they can add a
- 15:16few pieces to the offense to be able to round out that team and make
- 15:20a wild card run. It is Ironic's one of those is like, if
- 15:24they get healthy next year, they could be a really scary team if they
- 15:28just get a little hitting. Now, that assumes the majority of those guys
- 15:33come back. Not everybod's gonna because there's a few Timy John's in there that
- 15:35are gonna take a little bit more time. But if you get three of
- 15:39those guys back, for those guys, there's like six or seven guys right
- 15:43now that are all legitimate major league starters that are hurt. If you just
- 15:46get a few of them back, that's a really, really dangerous team.
- 15:52So it'll be interesting to see how well how they play this deadline, because
- 15:56you think that they've got to sell a few pieces, try to get some
- 16:00hitting. And so a guy like Tanner Scott, Like, what do you
- 16:03say, he's probably gone, He's packed his bags already at this point.
- 16:07H yeah, I would, I would think so. And honestly, i'm
- 16:11sir Lizardo. I mean there's still a chance Lazardo moves too. I guess
- 16:15that, like he could move even though he's injured, but they might just
- 16:21keep him around at this point to try to put together like that rotation of
- 16:23death that we're talking about, because if you're looking at a rotation of something
- 16:27like al Contra, Cabrera, Zarto, Weather's, Trevor Rodgers that's and Mex
- 16:34Smyer next year, that's not a bad like foundation to build from and Peter
- 16:38Bendex will be getting his first off full off season there, and I'm sure
- 16:44we'll sign plenty of platoon bats to mix and match and implement the Tampa Bay
- 16:48Rays there down in Miami. All right, the next oh yeah, yeah,
- 16:55no, it was absolutely I fully agree with you there. Okay.
- 16:57The next injury we've got is David Bednar, closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates,
- 17:03is hitting the ale with an oblique injury. In his stead, a Roless
- 17:07Chapman and his nine walks per nine will be entering the closer role in Pittsburgh.
- 17:14Although I am, I mean, I'm hitting on a roll this a
- 17:17little bit for a good reason. He has started to cut it a little
- 17:19bit more, as it was bad in March and April in May, but
- 17:25I mean it's only seven point two innings in June, seven two thirds,
- 17:29but he only has four walks, so he's starting to hone it in a
- 17:32little bit. But the velocity has been up for Chapman as well too,
- 17:34so I think he's gonna do well in this spot for Bednar. And I
- 17:41guess I wanted to bring this up because I wanted to see I'm actually interested
- 17:45in leagues where an owner might have had Bednar going down to pursue him at
- 17:52this point that I do think that like Chapman is gonna be traded at the
- 17:57deadline, he's the pirate's best piece to ship out, and I don't know
- 18:00if they got a chance at this wild card. Plus Bednar is like this.
- 18:06I don't know why the pirate to do this, but they love keeping
- 18:08around these closers and just building their franchises around him. It doesn't hurt that
- 18:12Bednar is from Pittsburgh, so I think that he's kind of locked in there
- 18:18and he'll get the job right back, even if a role this performs,
- 18:21well, am I crazy going out there and trying to acquire a closer that
- 18:26has shelled right now with an oblique injury? Possibly? Come on, you're
- 18:30asking the guy that loves the injured pictures here, I think is a brilliant
- 18:36strategy here, thank you. Okay, you know, but you know,
- 18:41first of all, the oblique, the way they describe it, it was
- 18:45more of a tweak felt something we need to make sure he's healthy because he's
- 18:49our guy kind of move versus you know, we're not sure what's going to
- 18:55happen. Let's put him. It's not like a Jordan Romano situation where you're
- 18:56like, is this guy broken? Like Bednar has just been great. Nothing's
- 19:02wrong with the arm, Like, it's just let's let's make sure he's healthy.
- 19:06So when he gets back, he's one hundred percent got the job.
- 19:08He's been fantastic. There's no reason to look elsewhere. So if somebody is
- 19:12suren I'm Bednar for some reason, or they're a little bit worried, because
- 19:15yeah, obliques can't be scary, I'd take a chance at him. I'd
- 19:18pick him up because I think you're, you know, get past the All
- 19:22Star break and he is closed to the rest of the season. He's,
- 19:23you know, locking fifteen twenty saves and you were just counting your money to
- 19:27the bank. So I'm loving him. I am a little disappointed to see
- 19:32a role this get the shot here, just because that's disappointing interesting to watch,
- 19:38but I would have liked to see, you know, maybe Colin Holderman
- 19:41get get an opportunity. He's definitely had some luck this year, but see
- 19:45see somebody else get a chance in that role. But at the end of
- 19:51the day, the Pirates just don't have that deep of a bullpen and it
- 19:53kind of is bednar than everybody else. So I'm I'm staying away from a
- 19:57roleist at this point as well. Well, that's just not a roller coaster
- 20:02that I have any desire to get on or in front of. Yeah,
- 20:06I think that's a very very smooth move and like, yeah, I think
- 20:11that it's a temporary patch, but you got to know that, like you're
- 20:14playing with fire guy that has a one walk per inning like under his belt,
- 20:22Like oof, that's tough to be a closer with. All right,
- 20:25next injury we've got is Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddock hitting the aisle with shoulder
- 20:30fatigue, which kind of makes sense just given Chris Paddock's injury history as he's
- 20:36been up and down, and this is actually he's been a really good case
- 20:41for me to just I think learn a little bit from you through this podcast
- 20:45that I've started to shy more and more away from fly ball pitchers. And
- 20:51at first, like I was interested in Padic i think coming into the season
- 20:53because you saw just what he was able to do in San Diego and a
- 20:59little bit in his time at the end of last year with the Twins that
- 21:03He's got the strikeouts, and it seemed like the talent would be there.
- 21:07But it was really worrisome the way that the ground ball rate never came back
- 21:14to him with the Twins. That as soon as I saw that happening in
- 21:18April, it was a little bit of a tough start for him. But
- 21:22the fly ball rates did not line up with what he was doing in San
- 21:25Diego, and that's when I kind of started shying away from him in places
- 21:29where I was maybe relying on him. I mean, certainly a great streamer,
- 21:32but as people who have maybe absorbed some of those athletics starts that Paddick
- 21:38had over the past couple of weeks, not always the best streamer at the
- 21:41same time too. So with this, this is what's opening up the position
- 21:47for David Festa to walk into the Twins' rotation. And I mean, we
- 21:51can discuss Festa as an entity overall a little bit later when we get into
- 21:56our categories discussion, But do you think that like Festa could just secure this
- 22:02Chris Paddock spot and right at the rest of the season, I honestly do.
- 22:07I you know, when you look at a you know, a guy
- 22:08like Paddick going down and initially they called up Ronnie Henriquez, and the fact
- 22:15that they then decided to bring out Festa, who they like. When you're
- 22:18bringing up a prospect like that, it's it kind of signals that Paddock is
- 22:22likely out for longer and that arm is not something that you want to mess
- 22:27with like it. It is a very worrisome thing because there's not anything technically
- 22:33structurally wrong with the shoulder, and that is a scary thing when you just
- 22:40don't have I will say, quote unquote it like when you're just the arm
- 22:44isn't recovering, isn't bringing what it needs. That's a very unpredictable sign.
- 22:48And so I think the Twins are putting Paddock on the aisle and not expecting
- 22:53him back for month, two months, or or even until towards the end
- 22:56of the season. So I think Festa is gonna get a pretty good leash
- 23:00here to to look in. Again. We'll talk about him later, but
- 23:04I think he's got he's got the goods to roll. And you know,
- 23:11even as you talk about what you're looking for in paddic and what you hope
- 23:14for, I think Festa has. So I think there's a really good chance
- 23:18that he maintains that spot, and you know, at the end of the
- 23:22day, even if there's a little pressure elsewhere, like Simeon Woods, Richardson,
- 23:30isn't you know, knocking out of the ballpark necessarily. Bailey Ober has
- 23:34been a little all over the place as a Bailey over lover. I think
- 23:40I've started every bad start and none of the good ones. But I think
- 23:45that there will be a chance for fest to stick long term. I don't
- 23:48see him going back anytime soon unless he's just getting absolutely lit up, which
- 23:52I don't see happening. Yeah, I think that's a very fair take,
- 23:56all right. The next injury we have iss legend Clayton Kershaw has been shut
- 24:02down from his rehab as he experienced fatigue and soreness in that surgically repaired shoulder
- 24:07once again. Last week we kind of gave a career send off a little
- 24:12bit to Justin Verlander, who also is still not looking like he's got a
- 24:17time horizon for returning, because I do think that neck injury, like we
- 24:22were talking last week, is a part of the overall shoulder problem that Verlander's
- 24:27been battling, and this is just showing how difficult shoulder injuries are that,
- 24:33like, I think they are the most difficult injury to overcome, even more
- 24:37so than an elbow. Given how many guys we see bounce back from Tommy
- 24:41John embrace internal brace procedures year over year, that this really makes me sad.
- 24:48I think for a Kershaw that like, it's really just a disappointing way
- 24:55to end his career. I think, considering that he's going to go in
- 24:56as a first ballot Hall of Fame and just an all time Dodger. But
- 25:03I'm wondering, I mean, do you am I being too grim here?
- 25:06Is there any light at the tunnel? Maybe with Clayton Kershaw that honestly,
- 25:10I'm even surprised he got to the point of rehabbing this year. That it
- 25:14sounded like he was gonna not start rehabbing until like August or September, and
- 25:19the fact that he even got to this point has impressed me. But what
- 25:23do you think this means for Clayton Kershaw this year and going forward? Yeah?
- 25:29I think for for Kershaw, I'm not I'm not writing him off yet,
- 25:33and it's not because of anything that I've seen Kershaw do. Necessarily,
- 25:37it comes down more to who Clayton Kershaw is you know, we went through
- 25:42a few years she's probably what three or four years ago where Kershaw was like,
- 25:47I might retire, I might retire, you know. And but I
- 25:51think that there's been this flame lit in him for the last few years that
- 25:53like he feels like he has unfinished business. He's got this Dodgers team that
- 25:57is what he kind of was, you know, building the foundation for and
- 26:02just hasn't been able to participate in. And I think that's eating him alive.
- 26:07So I think, you know, he is he going to come back
- 26:10and have thirty starts at any point in time. Absolutely not. But I
- 26:12think he's still one of the best pitchers in the major leagues when he is
- 26:18healthy. It's just when is he going to be healthy? So I think
- 26:21that it is premature to write Kershaw off. You know, he's still only
- 26:26thirty six years old, which you know, compared to the Verlanders and the
- 26:30Urges of the world, I guess, well, sure, it's just about
- 26:32the same. But you know, he's still got a few years and it
- 26:37seems like he's just got an open invitation from the Dodgers to write it out,
- 26:41do whatever he wants. And so I think he's trying to get a
- 26:44few more starts. I think he wants to write off from the sunset.
- 26:47I think he wants to pick up, you know, toe the rubber one
- 26:48more time in the playoffs. And I don't think he's given up until he
- 26:53either his body completely says no or he gets that opportunity for a send off.
- 26:57So I'm not fully writing him off. I'm not investing in him anywhere.
- 27:03Yeah, but I think we have not seen the end of Clinton Kershaw
- 27:07quite yet. Yeah. I kind of hope that he gets a chance to
- 27:12come back this year and maybe like in a relief role. I think that
- 27:15would be a great spot for him, especially in the playoffs, to be
- 27:18able to be a lefty specialist and come in and just throw nasty curveballs or
- 27:25something. But we do wish him the best and hopefully he can make it
- 27:29back from this tough shoulder rehab. Okay, let's get into some of those
- 27:33suspensions that I alluded to. So the first one we have is Edwin Diaz
- 27:40is busted for sticky stuff as he entered the other night against the I think
- 27:45it was against the Cubs. Let me line it up on the schedule yeah,
- 27:48it was Sunday night against the Cubs on Sunday night, Baseball came out
- 27:52with it. Honestly, it looked like he stuck his entire right hand like
- 27:56just into a vat of rubber cement. I don't know how he ever thought
- 28:02he was going to get away with it, but it has been just a
- 28:06really rough season obviously for Dias overall in terms of keeping a hold of that
- 28:11closer's job and working his way back from that knee injury for last year.
- 28:15So if anything, it might also give him a little bit more rest on
- 28:18that initial kind of like shoulder fatigue that caused him to hit the injured list
- 28:23the other week. And yeah, I would just want to check in and
- 28:30see where you have Edwin Diaz and your overall closers, because he's been really
- 28:36tough to own in terms of I drafted him in the last spots in fact,
- 28:41in like the third and fourth round on some of my leagues because he
- 28:45just looked like a set it and forget it, one hundred plus k's reliever
- 28:51with thirty ish saves, and it's been anything but that. As we've kind
- 28:56of gotten a Edwin Diaz of old with the weird five plus eras and it's
- 29:02been quite the roller coaster ride. But you can't cut him. So do
- 29:07I think do you think I should keep holding on to him and writing that
- 29:10roller coaster or is it time to try to sell low on him at this
- 29:14point? Yeah? I think you have to hold him at this point.
- 29:18I think selling low, especially in roto leagues, in you know, a
- 29:23saves hold league or point something like that, Sure, cut the guy loose,
- 29:27move on. But if we're talking rotor leagues reading the Saves, you
- 29:30know, I think he's going to get the leash for the job. Like
- 29:33he's getting paid to close. You know, It's not like they have somebody
- 29:37else there that's just absolutely lights out, like Ree Garrett's been good, but
- 29:44it's there's not anybody else there that's just like absolutely pushing him out of the
- 29:48role. So I think Diez has a leash. You know, he's he's
- 29:52definitely had some Homer issues this this year lost. He's been down a tick,
- 29:57So I'm not like buy ds per se. But I also don't think
- 30:03you're getting what you want if you have to sell him. So he's the
- 30:06kind of guy that you know, you just gotta wait Hope he gets back.
- 30:08Hope he looks better. You know when when he doesn't have the sticky
- 30:12stuff, and uh, that's when you when you look to sell once he
- 30:17kind of reproves himself. But I think he gets that chance, and I
- 30:19think you you know nothing else, You'll look he backs into a few saves
- 30:22and you can flip him at that point. But I know, I know
- 30:26you have love for Edwin Diaz, probably to an unreasonable healthy level. So
- 30:32are you doing okay? Is? I think really my my biggest concern.
- 30:36Yeah, I mean it's been not easy trying to tuck him away on rosters,
- 30:40and certainly I was starting to like march up the standings a little bit
- 30:44in TGFBI with him, and it was not fun being having to shell them.
- 30:49I do wonder how much Grimace might have factored into your decision though,
- 30:53to suggest keeping him, because I mean, I think it's since the Grimace
- 30:59game is they're up to what like ten or twelve and no ten and two.
- 31:03I think since the Grimmace game stormed right back into the wild card,
- 31:07they're only one game below five hundred. That is that a factor here that
- 31:12you think that the Grimace magic is going to rub back up, back off
- 31:15on Edwin Diaz here. No, I think I'm not come up in the
- 31:25grimmace. I think Diaz is on the downward trend and I think we're just
- 31:30I think he the My best comparable for Diaz right now is Craig Kemberl.
- 31:34Yeah. I think that's the roller coaster that you're getting on with Edwin Diaz
- 31:37at this point. I don't think he's recovering to go back to who he
- 31:41was, and he's gonna He's gonna have an interesting next few years as he
- 31:45tries to bounce around through all these teams that are not quite sure they want
- 31:48to use him but know that he's good enough. It's just going to be
- 31:52a roller coaster to get there. So, uh No, I'm not I'm
- 31:56not buying the grimmas. Okay, obviously that's what's been feeling read Garrett,
- 32:01But I mean that's a different conversation. So the other suspension that we have
- 32:07is a Relvis Martinez, who we just talked about last week in terms of
- 32:10investing in because of the call up in Toronto busted for peds and I honestly
- 32:17this must have been why he had that irregular start to his career too,
- 32:21where they called him up and he didn't play for a couple of days,
- 32:23because the way that these ped suspension cycle is that the union and the player
- 32:30and the team knew probably months in advance, weeks in advance at minimum,
- 32:36and so there's like an appeal process and everything like that. So it's also
- 32:40strange that Toronto even kind of ever brought him up. But I think that's
- 32:44also what kept him down Triple A for so long, possibly too that it
- 32:49seemed he had been ready for maybe like a month or so, and especially
- 32:52given some of the poor performances out of those bats in Toronto, it seemed
- 32:57like Martinez had a spot. In terms of just the overall trajectory going forward
- 33:01to Martinez, we were pretty i think glow, maybe just short of glowing
- 33:07last week, maybe positive about his overall future and what he could be as
- 33:13an up the middle bat. Do you still believe in that or do you
- 33:15think that the peds might have actually had some sort of role to play in
- 33:21his overall profile? Yeah, I mean I will say that I was a
- 33:24minimum intrigued. I don't know if I was fully invested, and I'm not
- 33:30as terribly concerned with the peds, because I have to feel these days that
- 33:36a lot of the guys either kept cought for peds, like the pds aren't
- 33:38actually helping them. Like this seems like the vast majority of the time,
- 33:42it's like a tetisse neck cream type thing, like they weren't really thinking through,
- 33:46like they took something they shouldn't have, but it's not It probably had
- 33:52a little help. I think he referenced earlier, like recovery time or something
- 33:53like that. The bigger thing for me with Martinez is, you know,
- 33:59he just was making its the majors. Now you're losing the rest of this
- 34:02year. They're probably not going to be starting him at the beginning of next
- 34:07year. They want to make sure that he's back and you know, in
- 34:10game shape and hitting again. They should have a healthy team. Like I'm
- 34:15just sitting like this is his clock back a whole year in my mind,
- 34:20like is this time next year that we're talking about or Martinez, you know,
- 34:22getting another look, And frankly, I'm just not too excited about waiting.
- 34:29I think that there's you know, that profile and I think we've talked
- 34:32about a number of times on this podcast, is like the low average high
- 34:36power guy, like they're a diamond dozen these days, and so I'm just
- 34:39not too excited to wait around for that and and play with play with fire,
- 34:44because if I'm wrong and the PDS didn't matter, it's even worse.
- 34:47So I'm just I'm I'm kind of I've soured. Maybe it's just the fact
- 34:52that I can't stand a guy that got called up and they got busted repea
- 34:54days three days later. I think you're right. I think this is one
- 34:58where they got notified this second he got called up and be like, hey,
- 35:00guys, hold up, just the heads up, we found this,
- 35:04and then they like puts all the evidence and go, hey, you got
- 35:07you idiot. There's not a chance in the world are you can appeel that
- 35:08one? So sorry, it's so he got to go to two three day
- 35:15pay check and I was about it, Yeah, exactly. Now he's hanging
- 35:17out, and I think that's probably about where I'm at. I think maybe
- 35:22I'm a tick more intrigued than you, but like not overall, not like
- 35:30I'm not certainly where was last week on Aralviis Martinez. But I think maybe
- 35:34my extra tick is just because I do think this Toronto teams about to get
- 35:38blown up in a month that when this deadline hits next month, you're gonna
- 35:43see I think some of the major pieces maybe get peeled away. And on
- 35:46top of it too, you had free agents that were gonna be hitting this
- 35:51roster, especially like Justin Turner, and so there's gonna be I think a
- 35:54spot or spots that you could slot Martinez into in the spring if he can
- 36:00come back and produce. But like we've seen how difficult it's been for Noel
- 36:05di Marte to get back into the swing of things with Cincinnati. You know,
- 36:08he's been struggling in Triple A on his kind of ramp up from his
- 36:13ped suspension. So it is also just a wait to carry that. You
- 36:16know, it's never great to be rostering players that have just like the psychological
- 36:23weight of having this suspension and kind of carrying that through their careers, especially
- 36:29this early on that I think when you kind of line things up certainly,
- 36:32Yeah, in Dynasty leagues, Aralvius Martinez has been kicked down a few tiers
- 36:37because of this, but I think he's still intriguing overall because he still was
- 36:43only twenty two, and I think that there could be at least one or
- 36:47two, like really good peak seasons in that bat down the line in Toronto.
- 36:54All right, we will wait to list time next year to see who
- 36:58is right. Yeah, I will file it in. We can remember it
- 37:01for episode one hundred. Okay, well, we've got a little bit of
- 37:07card news, so let's get through that now. In terms of the calendar
- 37:12is really starting to fill in for the rest of the summer as the production
- 37:15presses have kicked into high gear. Over at Tops and Panini and Fanatics,
- 37:20we have well, I mean the first one isn't either of them. Leaf
- 37:23Lumber has been is coming out this weekend on the twenty eighth, So I
- 37:30think I don't usually call out Leaf sets, but I want to mention Leaf
- 37:32Lumber because I think it out of all their sets that Leaf puts out there,
- 37:37it's one of the more solid ones and terms of like if you're not
- 37:43familiar with Leaf in the modern day sense, obviously back in the day they
- 37:47used to have I think some of the coolest cards. They used to be
- 37:51some of the more expensive cards in the shop too. For the base cards
- 37:53I always enjoyed. I think it's the ninety three set where it's got like
- 37:59the Goal Old stamp on it, and it's been a cool set from the
- 38:04nineties. But nowadays it is unlicensed, and usually you're dealing with a lot
- 38:09of like collegiate players and they have an entire series of all sorts of random
- 38:15celebrities and stuff that people love ripping. But leaf Lumber I think still speaks
- 38:20to kind of the true baseball collector's heart in terms of the bat relics that
- 38:25are included in the set. Leaf Lumber always includes lots of great Hall of
- 38:30famers, lots of great modern players, and just like absolute legends where they
- 38:34pair them up in terms of the relics and even in some of the individual
- 38:38relics. So I wanted to put that out there on the calendar, let
- 38:42people know it was coming. You into leaf products at all, brew or
- 38:46leaf Lumber in particular. I have a soft spot for some leaf products,
- 38:52you know, the fact that they're cheap, you can get some fun autos
- 38:59of your favorite players, and there's usually a few here and there that have
- 39:01some pretty neat designs, like the trinitys and things like that. Lumber is
- 39:08to me is a hit or miss. Like the unlicensed part of it,
- 39:14they almost lean too hard into to a degree, and so a lot of
- 39:17these cards, like it's just so obvious it's unlicensed, whereas often you know,
- 39:24Leaf will on their other cards try not to make it as obvious as
- 39:28unlicensed, and so like you know, there's a picture from the side and
- 39:31the helmet's kind of hidden, you know, things like that. And so
- 39:37the one thing that intrigues me and about Leaf Lumber this year is I've seen
- 39:44a tagline with it that there's trade deadline redemption cards which allow you to trade
- 39:51a twenty twenty four Leaf Lumber baseball card from Massive Upgrade. I don't know
- 39:54what that means, but like that's just a very unique type of concept that
- 40:00you can, like a redemption you can trade for something like at the deadline.
- 40:05Like I don't know what that means, but that's really intriguing that,
- 40:08like you might have a chance to get a card that you could wait on
- 40:13and then make a decision to trade it in for some not just a specific
- 40:17player per se. So I need to do some more research on what that
- 40:21means, because if they've thought through some unique gimmick unlike putting you know,
- 40:25statues of liberties on cards and things I'd like to see how somebody else is
- 40:31being creative in the space to get a little bit of notoriety for the product.
- 40:36Yeah, yeah, I think that's very fair. So we can keep
- 40:39an eye on that too, see if it ever comes to light what the
- 40:43actual prize is. Because I'm intrigued too, I didn't actually realize that.
- 40:49So we've also got Donors and Tops Tier one so coming out on July third
- 40:54next week. But they also added Panini Stars and Stripes USA Baseball to that
- 41:00July third release. So if you're not familiar with Panini Stars and Stripes USA
- 41:05Baseball, what it is is it's like players who have come through the USA
- 41:09development teams as either like teenagers or collegiate players, and so who will usually
- 41:19be the targets within this set are the big time collegiate players. If you
- 41:23click on the link on Beckett dot com. I mean, the big name
- 41:29that's right there at the top is Jack Kaglion. So this checklist isn't out
- 41:31there, but I do know that people like this product because of that,
- 41:35because you can get into some of these collegiate names, start collecting them before
- 41:39the draft happens. And on top of it too, you can also like
- 41:45collect these cards without them being they're like unlicensed, but they're not unlicensed,
- 41:51you know what I mean. Then it's not all air brushed out with weird
- 41:53angles and everything because they're all wearing USA gear. So I think that's an
- 41:58intriguing part of the Stars and Stripes set overall. And then the big daddy
- 42:05that we've got that got added to the schedule is Top Schrome is coming out
- 42:08on the seventeenth of July. Really not much of a ramp up from Tops
- 42:13Overall. We discussed last week on episode forty nine that the pre order for
- 42:17TOPS Chrome was out there and was egregiously priced. I mean, I don't
- 42:22know how much Tops Chrome I'm going to be ripping this year just from the
- 42:28get go, I don't know how into it I was going to be because
- 42:31of my lack of interest in the overall design. But once those prices came
- 42:37out, it certainly killed any sort of desire to start like finding any small
- 42:43products to rip because it's just absurd if you want to get in on that
- 42:47just absolute Honestly, it's going to be a blood bath in terms of like
- 42:51gambling with that set. Tops Chrome on July seventeenth will probably have a bigger
- 42:55overview on the seventeenth or around there because it is going to be a major
- 43:00release and we're gonna have a lot of refractors to name off. I'm pretty
- 43:04sure. Yeah, I think we'll have a lot of fun. And I
- 43:07unfortunately, like I know, I kind of spout it off about you know,
- 43:10Series two being a breaker's product, which I've partaken a few of those
- 43:15myself, and I maintained that I've seeing what's been pulled, and I think
- 43:21that the same thing goes for top Chrome. So we'll get into that when,
- 43:24you know, when the time comes and we get a chance to dig
- 43:27a little bit deeper. But yeah, I think that one's getting a little
- 43:30bit out of reach or a little bit too a lottery ticket, just like
- 43:35some of the other high end products, Chrome has been creeping into that I
- 43:38called the Bowman range on pricing out of the marketplace at this point, yeah,
- 43:44which is sad because I mean it's a pretty big flagship product that the
- 43:49way that you build this hobby in the future is allow kids to be able
- 43:52to afford things like chrome. But I think those days are over for right
- 43:57now. That's unfortunate. And then we've got two that were on the calendar
- 44:02last week. We'll run through them again real fast. That is July nineteenth,
- 44:06Panini Boy this summer, and the twenty eighth, we've got Panini Prism.
- 44:09So, like we said last week, with tops Chrome and Panina Prism
- 44:14kind of being in the same realm, those chrome printing presses have been in
- 44:17overdrive for FNAX over the past month or so as they're getting those products out.
- 44:23All right, Well, that wraps us up with news and notes for
- 44:28both regular baseball and baseball cards. So we're going to take a short break
- 44:31and then be back with those prospect category helpers. Stick around, all right,
- 44:54Welcome back everybody. So we are going to get into some prospect discussion
- 45:00on especially just trying to kind of hone in our overall approach and how we're
- 45:05analyzing these players. We are looking at both bats and pitchers who can help
- 45:10you in specific categories for your rotisary leagues out there, keeper dynasties, especially
- 45:15where we're looking at and on top of it all, not only I think
- 45:20are these guys most of them are going to be targeted for coming up the
- 45:25rest of the summer. Like we already mentioned with Festa and Noel at the
- 45:30top of the show, where these guys are already even coming up this week.
- 45:34But I've also been kind of taking an overall view of just kind of
- 45:37like looking twelve months into the future, especially like not only I think are
- 45:42these guys that we're all going to discuss have a pretty strong case of being
- 45:47coming up to the majors over the next few weeks and into kind of September
- 45:52as late season call ups, but I think a lot of these players also
- 45:57have the chance to break camp with their team's next year and find positions right
- 46:01off the bat because they're either in Double A or Triple A playing really well,
- 46:07and you know, in the offseason their teams will be able to unload
- 46:10the players in front of them that might be blocking them from the forty man
- 46:15roster or the twenty six man roster. On top of it too, I
- 46:19think this is also like a good time to also look out like a year
- 46:24to who's going to be getting called up maybe in June of next year.
- 46:29You know, this is why lots of people in dynasty and keeper leagues were
- 46:32really starting to acquire you know, Junior Cameniero James wood Why at Langford right
- 46:40after he was drafted, like those types of players in that vein. If
- 46:44you're taking a view of looking twelve months into the future, you can maybe
- 46:49start filling some of those gaps on your dynasty and keeper teams in these categories,
- 46:52so you can focus on that now anything else that maybe you were thinking
- 46:58about when you were trying to determine which players to pick for our discussion here
- 47:02on these categories group, Yeah, for me, it was really kind of
- 47:06a you know, hold in on what you're comfortable with and kind of dig
- 47:09deep in the minors because it's not you know, when when you're trying to
- 47:13looking for those especially if you're in the deeper leagues, you're you're looking for
- 47:15guys that before their names. Right you talked about some of the bigger names,
- 47:21like you're looking before they become the bigger name, and that's that's where
- 47:24you start to make profit in dynasty and keeper leagues. If you can find
- 47:29the guy before he becomes a name and you know he starts to pop,
- 47:34you can flip him or you can you can ride the wave. And so
- 47:37for me, it's it's really just about digging around and seeing what's out there,
- 47:39and you know, we'll talk about some fun names here. I think
- 47:43there's one of them that neither you or I were too aware of that will
- 47:45kind of jump into that just hit the market. As soon as I looked,
- 47:50was like, man, the more I look at this guy, the
- 47:51more I'm interested in it. And I'm hey, I'm going to be putting
- 47:55some some dollars out of this guy and get him on some of my teams.
- 47:59Uh, because there's there's great potential. So you know, if if
- 48:04you haven't, don't haven't dug deep into like fangraphs and digging their minor league
- 48:07numbers and they have some great features there to search by age and every single
- 48:14potential statistic. You can really dig deep in the minors and hone into like
- 48:17the three guys that you know walk more than they strike out, hit to
- 48:22have they pull the ball and they've hit one, have one steal in seventeen
- 48:29home runs. Like, you can get deep and really find the guys that
- 48:31match what what you are comfortable with and what matches your team. So that's
- 48:36really what I've done, and it's it's it's it's just so fun to get
- 48:39lost in. That's the worst part is that I end up pick up too
- 48:43many minor leaguers and forgetting about all the major leaguers that actually play the game.
- 48:46Yeah, and then I mean, I think what I love about the
- 48:50fangraphs, like sorting features on the prospects too, are just like the filter
- 48:54by age stuff like That's I think how I found a lot of prospects is
- 48:59just looking at age relative to level and with their overall performances that you know,
- 49:05some guy might have only like a one to twenty WRC plus and double
- 49:09A and it looks middling, but then you see that he's nineteen, and
- 49:13then immediately pops out that he could turn into something a little more special.
- 49:17So, like I said, we're going to hone in on specific categories on
- 49:22kind of viewing it through a typical five x five Rhoto lens. Even though
- 49:29though we are doing the categories, I'm already going to filter out runs,
- 49:32RBI, era, whip and saves just because I think all those are really
- 49:39kind of harder to focus on from a prospect level because they're team dependent,
- 49:45and like pitching, velosophy dependent, just lots of other variables that are harder
- 49:50to control. So we've honed in on I think the five major counting categories
- 49:54that are much easier to try to do this analysis on, and that's gonna
- 50:00be homer's batting average, stolen bases, wins, and strikeouts. So with
- 50:06that, let's kick off with homers. And I'm going to pass this over
- 50:09to you and you can let me know who you're honing in for homers.
- 50:15Yeah. So, I mean we talked about earlier, you know, our
- 50:17clairvoyant moment here Joinski. Noel Is is where we have to start here for
- 50:23the Cleveland Guardians. Uh, to your point you just made that. You
- 50:28know, twenty two year old, he is a massive human being. He's
- 50:32six three, two fifty. You know, I'm gonna say he plays first
- 50:37in the outfield. I'm quite sure he does. Then you know he's he's
- 50:43definitely a plotter type type of guy. Here. If you if you're if
- 50:46you're making a comp for Noel, and I don't know who first comes to
- 50:52your mind, but first guy that comes to my mind is fran mill Rayis.
- 50:55I think that that is like the comp for this guy. He hits
- 50:59the ball hard. This year, He's been pacing for roughly forty five homers.
- 51:04And the miners, and over a full season last year, in one
- 51:07hundred and thirty eight games, he hit twenty seven. And you know,
- 51:12the big biggest questions for him are like does he have a position, and
- 51:19you know, what's that approach at the plate gonna be. Is it gonna
- 51:22be consistent enough that he can hit for good enough average to be to maintain
- 51:27a role to then take advantage of that power. Again, I'm gonna go
- 51:30back to the Framuel reys comparison, like that's that's who you're hoping he becomes.
- 51:35And that's exactly what you wanted with Reyes, Like can he maintain that
- 51:37average enough to get the forty homers or whatnot? And so I think Noel
- 51:42is one of those. I don't know that he's gonna be like, you
- 51:46know, off and running the second he gets called up, but I think
- 51:50the powers there, the powers already there. He's like, we'll just literally
- 51:53run into it a home run by accident type of guy. I think you're
- 51:58gonna probably get a lower average out of the gate. Like I said,
- 52:01there's you know, he's he's stolen a total of two bases four bases over
- 52:08the last three years, and I'm sure that was part of like a double
- 52:13steel or something like, he's just not gonna He's not doing anything else to
- 52:15the stat sheet there. But I think Noel is the kind of guy that
- 52:20I would look for to bring some power, you know, that raw power.
- 52:25His his prospect reports give him an eighty grade potential in the raw power,
- 52:30saying he's already up to the seventies. So he's not been the highest
- 52:32prospect on the list. He's he's been kind of jumping up a little bit
- 52:36more this year because he kind of sustained some of his games last year and
- 52:39they've gotten better, which which is fantastic, But I want to caution a
- 52:45little bit of expecting a full package here. That's why he's in the homer
- 52:49categories because he's he's ready for the homers. I'm not quite sure he's ready
- 52:52for everything else. Yeah, I mean, I think what I've liked about
- 52:57Noel this year is that he's shown the development to maybe round out that batting
- 53:02average a little bit and to be able to turn into maybe because there's a
- 53:07fine line between frownmeil Reyes and like Jordan Alvarez, and it's really tough to
- 53:15walk that line as a designated hit or to be able to you know,
- 53:19hit the ball enough, make enough contact, and just also be able to
- 53:24justify not having to play the field. And so like, I think Noel
- 53:30can thread that needle, given the games that he's put together already this year
- 53:36in Triple A, you know, he dropped the k rate significantly from twenty
- 53:40four point eight percent last year to twenty one point one percent this year,
- 53:45and it came with gains in actual like contact rates too, so the contact
- 53:51rate went up from seventy percent to seventy four percent down in Triple A.
- 53:54I was always kind of watching Noel last year just because the power number were
- 54:00eye popping lee absurd. You know, he put up twenty seven homers in
- 54:04Triple A, but it came with a two to twenty average and only a
- 54:07seventy seven WRC plus. But what I loved is that he was twenty one
- 54:12in Triple A all of last year, and so Noel is really young for
- 54:16the level. What really I think kicked him into a higher gear for me
- 54:21this year is that the Itch had been ranking him like second and third on
- 54:25his prospect rankings the past few weeks, mostly because Noel had a forty man
- 54:30spot already he had been placed on the forty man by Cleveland in the offseason.
- 54:34Then you also combine that with Cleveland the home park is a bandbox right
- 54:40now. The balls are flying farther because of like the way that they've changed
- 54:45that upper deck with the wind tunnels than that ever has and it's a great
- 54:50offense. Uh. Currently he slotted Noel slotted into a short side platoon.
- 54:54I think he's better than Kyle Manzardo. He's gonna keep Manzardo down in the
- 54:59miners. It's just a matter of how much playing time can he carve out
- 55:05within that Guardians lineup, because they have the ability to shift David Frye around
- 55:10to a lot of different positions. You don't need to play Will Brennan every
- 55:15day, I don't think if you're Cleveland, and so especially if there's one
- 55:20injury that maybe hits that Cleveland team and hits somebody on a corner infield or
- 55:27corner outfield spot, you're looking at a full playing time in front of Noel
- 55:32right now. So I'm certainly he's gonna be I think a big portion of
- 55:37my Waiver Wire article this weekend because I think the power is legit, and
- 55:42if he can hit two twenty in today's league environment, that doesn't kill you
- 55:46as much as it used to. Yeah, it's gonna be He's gonna be
- 55:51fun one to watch, that's for sure. And I think there's just there's
- 55:52a lot of potential there. And you know, I'm glad Cleveland's give him
- 55:57a chance and not waiting to live in the season to see what happens.
- 56:00Like he's playing strong, he looks, he looks to be ready. Give
- 56:05him a shot. See what happens. Do we got jord On, Do
- 56:07we got fran Mill, Do we got uh, you know, AyL Schomer?
- 56:10I don't know. Okay, Well my Homer pick could have actually been
- 56:15Noel's teammate. It is Davison Delos Santos, who is just about like a
- 56:22eighty five percent carbon copy of Noel in terms of he's same sort of right
- 56:29handed corner only dh profile, pure power hitter with just like lumbering speed and
- 56:36a little bit of contact issues. He was taken in the Rule five draft
- 56:39by the Guardians in December, then returned back to the Diamondbacks this spring.
- 56:45He's showing a lot of the same things that I just listed off for Noel
- 56:49in terms of what he did in Triple A. So Delos Santos in Triple
- 56:53A this year has blasted seven homers after hitting fourteen in Double A. He's
- 57:00put up a two four WRC plus and double A one thirty one so far
- 57:05in Triple A over one hundred and twenty nine at bats, and he's dropped
- 57:09the strikeout rate again this year that last year he was living in more in
- 57:15Traditionally he's been living more in the mid to upper twenties for his strikeout rate,
- 57:19but in both Double A and Triple A it's been at twenty two percent
- 57:23ish, which is going to play in the majors. Like even for the
- 57:29projections on Steamer right now, I mean they are only projecting him for twenty
- 57:32six percent strikeout rate with a two fifty four average ninety eight WRC plus.
- 57:37This is already a guy who at twenty one would slot in and be a
- 57:43league average player according to Steamer. What I think I really love about Davison
- 57:46Delo Santos is he's Uhennuosuarez is gone next year in Arizona. That you see
- 57:54the playing path time clearing up pretty easily for Delo Santos that he could walk
- 58:00in to that third base job in Arizona or some sort of corner position.
- 58:04Right. Shan Walker is also a free agent next year as well. Excellent.
- 58:07Well, I mean that's even better news that, like they're gonna need
- 58:10somebody like Dalo Santos in this lineup in Arizona next year. Why not start
- 58:15it now, especially given where Arizona sits in the standings and needs a little
- 58:20bit of kick of the pants. Dalo Santos, I think if we had
- 58:24to compare them, Noel's probably in my book, like Noel's maybe more of
- 58:29like a peak forty homer guy. Delo Santos is maybe like a thirty two
- 58:34ish, But I think the peak average for Noel is maybe like two thirty
- 58:39where Dla Santos, I mean, just because he does have better control the
- 58:46zone and a better strikeout rate, like you could see him hitting maybe like
- 58:50two fifty two sixty in a peak. Yeah, I think you're right there,
- 58:54And I think the comparison between the two guys is spot on, like
- 58:58they're they're cut from the same claw, you know. I do think that
- 59:02Noel will tower over from size perspective. Dla Santos. Dla Santos fits more
- 59:07into the linebacker mold versus the just giant human mold. I do have to
- 59:15read Eric Longerhans has a little head to ride up on him in the preseason,
- 59:20and I thought this was interesting because I think it speaks exactly to who
- 59:23Daila Santos is and it basically called out the is plus plus big league raw
- 59:28power since he was nineteen, but the rest of his game has been sushi
- 59:31raws Like that's that's basically him in a nutshell like his his you know speed,
- 59:39like he's actually they have him a forty grade right now with his potential
- 59:43as a thirty like like there's like, no, he's he's he's going the
- 59:46wrong way already, guys like and I think that you're right, he's he's
- 59:50the guy that's gonna you know, they're playing a more at first base this
- 59:52year, So I do think I'm a little more interested in him, like
- 59:55for next year because I think that the playing time is the there and he's
- 1:00:01not a guy that I'm gonna be running out right now to get because unless
- 1:00:07I really need homers down the stretch, I don't I'm not as confident that
- 1:00:10he's gonna get called up with kind of the guys they're on the roster,
- 1:00:15and the it feels like the diamonbacks have will have a pretty has some pretty
- 1:00:19strong strong depths, so it'll be interesting to see. But I do think
- 1:00:22next year he's a guy to watch, especially in the spring. I kind
- 1:00:25of see if he's getting the playing time and he's a great late late round
- 1:00:30flyer to try to go after that. What did you say? Thirty two
- 1:00:34ish homer upside? That was very very specific, so I appreciate the specificity
- 1:00:39there in your estimates. Yeah, more than thirty, less than thirty five.
- 1:00:43That's thirty two. Oh so many ways I can take that, So
- 1:00:49we'll leave it there. So okay, well that gives you two options for
- 1:00:53homers and power. Let's move on to the batting average, which I think
- 1:00:58we probably both had the most difficulty finding somebody, but we actually found two
- 1:01:04guys at the same position. So I'll let you open with your pick.
- 1:01:08Yeah, and we're we're gonna stay right there in Arizona. We're gonna like
- 1:01:13make these all connections like who one degree with each other? So and we're
- 1:01:16gonna go with Adrian Dela del Castillo. He's a twenty four year old catcher
- 1:01:21for the Divingbacks right now in his second round of Triple A, and he's
- 1:01:29hitting three twenty two, got fourteen homers across sixty nine games there in Triple
- 1:01:36A. That's good for a WRT plus of one forty. And what jumped
- 1:01:39out to me with him was that, you know, he's he's always been
- 1:01:45on like the fringe of like an interesting prospect, but he has you know,
- 1:01:49whether it's he's figured out Triple A. I don't know what is this
- 1:01:52this year, but his strikeout rate has dropped considerably. Early in his minor
- 1:01:57league career, he was like a thirty kight guy. Last few years he's
- 1:02:00been that twenty five you know, twenty eight k you know percent guy this
- 1:02:06series strike out at a seventeen percent rate, like significantly better than what he's
- 1:02:10done the rest is his minor league career, and his power has jumped up.
- 1:02:15So he really looks to be a guy that's made some adjustments. You
- 1:02:20know, is he gonna find his his way you know, into the Major's
- 1:02:24there with the Diamondbacks. Tim will tell, but he seems that he has
- 1:02:30nothing, really less to prove and you know why he jumps out, And
- 1:02:36I think the guy that you'll talk about jumps out is because we're talking about
- 1:02:38a guy that seems like he's got a good path to a good average and
- 1:02:43he's a catcher, yep, So like that just doubles down because the catching
- 1:02:46market tends to be a little bit rough. And you know, he's sitting
- 1:02:50there. We've got Tucker Barnhardt as his you know, heir apparent, who's
- 1:02:54not been blazing on any many means. Jose Herrera there on the bench is
- 1:03:02also not really in his way per se. So I think that, you
- 1:03:07know, he's the kind of guy that being in twenty four, being triple
- 1:03:10A, being there in a second tour. The only thing that's really keeping
- 1:03:15him down is the fact that they do have Barnhart here and the second year
- 1:03:22of a you know, three you know, three million, three to four
- 1:03:25million dollars a year contract. But hey, Barnhart's hitting one seventy eight uh
- 1:03:30this this year, and uh, you know, at some point they got
- 1:03:36to got to make a change. So I think entering del Castillo is an
- 1:03:39interesting one. Definitely a big guy I'm going to keep my eye on.
- 1:03:43And if he does get the call, I don't know him investing before he
- 1:03:45gets the call, but if he gets the call, I'm definitely going there.
- 1:03:47Or if I'm maybe in a two catcher league that I got an open
- 1:03:51spot, I might be willing to kind of throw a few bucks at him
- 1:03:53before that happens. So Del Castillo, he's my guy in the average average
- 1:03:59lane. Any thoughts there on out in Arizona before before we leave, even
- 1:04:04just a prediction here, we're gonna stay nearby in the in all West for
- 1:04:10our connections. Yeah, same same position we said. But yeah, I
- 1:04:14mean, if anything, I'm going to just like emphasize some of the things
- 1:04:17on Castillo's profile. Del Castillo's profile that I like that you didn't even get
- 1:04:24to, and that is one He's he's pulling the ball more in twenty twenty
- 1:04:29four at triple A than he did last year. Last year he was more
- 1:04:31of like an all field spray hitter, and so not only is he striking
- 1:04:36out less, but he's getting to that full side power in triple A.
- 1:04:41That is right where you want to be if you want somebody who just is
- 1:04:45a solid hitter in terms of not only providing that batting average but also the
- 1:04:49power, because you can see that has jumped up for Castio del Castio this
- 1:04:53year. He has cut his or he's increased his contact rate significantly from seventy
- 1:05:00four percent to eighty percent. So all that stuff that we talked about in
- 1:05:04terms of what we're looking for when the strikeout rate drops, it's not luck
- 1:05:10based for Delcastdio this year. He's really deserving it. And another thing here
- 1:05:16is that not only are you Heneo Suarez and Christian Walker leaving town in Arizona
- 1:05:24after this offseason, Jack Peterson's on a one year deal, and Delcastio is
- 1:05:29left handed. He would line up perfectly to platoon with Gabriel Reno to be
- 1:05:33able to play catcher and DH and that would be the sweet spot if you're
- 1:05:39looking, especially in those deep to catcher leagues, somebody who's playing that much
- 1:05:45and is left handed. And Arizona's not the best hitter spark, but if
- 1:05:48you're a good hitter, you can put up a pretty good average I think
- 1:05:53down there, and obviously you get to hit in places like Colorado as well.
- 1:05:58So I love del Castillo even though, like I'm not huge in investing
- 1:06:03in catchers in dynastein keeper leagues. It seems like del Castillo is very cheap.
- 1:06:10And so if that is the case, like that's the perfect type of
- 1:06:14catcher. I think, somebody who has good skills, good opportunity, and
- 1:06:17doesn't have the hype machine behind them, because once catchers get hyped, that's
- 1:06:21when I'm certainly out because the price just starts shooting through the roof. Yeah,
- 1:06:29you're right, so it'll it'll be it'll be fun to see because he's
- 1:06:31got nothing let to prove. So there's a lot to like all around on
- 1:06:35Dela Castio here. So all right, make the connection. Another catcher,
- 1:06:41same division, who is it? And yeah, and we've been hinting at
- 1:06:44it. So it's Drew Romo catcher for the Colorado Rockies. It's mostly that,
- 1:06:48Yeah, this guy can hit for a high average. He's hit over
- 1:06:53the past two years three point fifty three. Well that was only eighteen plate
- 1:06:58appearances last year in Triple A for Colle Colorado. But this year he's hitting
- 1:07:01three zero five. All the projections have him in the two fifty ish range,
- 1:07:04which is well above average for a catcher. So even though like maybe
- 1:07:09these guys have lower batting averages overall than what you would you would think that
- 1:07:15given their position at catcher, they're going to be batting average assets and mostly
- 1:07:20like it's just time for Drew Romo to finally hit the field in Colorado.
- 1:07:26That it does seem that, like the Rockies probably will move on from Diez
- 1:07:31and Kevin Stallings at the trade deadline, which should open up the space for
- 1:07:35Drew Romo. Romo also is Rule five eligible in December, so Colorado kind
- 1:07:42of has to bring him up at some point this summer to see what he
- 1:07:45can do on a major league field. And I mean right there, like
- 1:07:49you're that's all you need, I think is you're looking at a switch hitter
- 1:07:55who can play catcher for the Rockies. And if that's maybe like the dream
- 1:08:00scenario, you can look at what value Elias Diaz has provided as like a
- 1:08:05mid thirties catcher in Colorado. Put somebody behind the plate with some fresh legs
- 1:08:11and can maybe run after it gets into the gaps a little bit. I
- 1:08:14think there's a lot of things to like in Drew Romo's profile because he doesn't
- 1:08:19strike out, he also doesn't walk, so he's like an Ezekiel Tovar at
- 1:08:24catcher, and you know, I love my Tobar. I know you absolutely
- 1:08:30love your Tobar, and I have to agree with a lot of points that
- 1:08:33you made. The interesting thing with Romo here is, you know, he
- 1:08:40seems like he has come into his own last year or so, maybe even
- 1:08:45less than that. But the one big question mark that remains like that doesn't
- 1:08:48affect his hitting ability at all. It's his catching ability. And let me
- 1:08:54be clear here. He can catch, he can field, he can't throw
- 1:08:57anybody out, you know. So if you look this year, he has
- 1:09:02allowed forty stolen bases in thirty nine games. As a catcher, he's thrown
- 1:09:08out thirteen guys. That's not good, funny. So that's forty out of
- 1:09:13fifty three. You can keep talking about to douse some mac here. Yeah,
- 1:09:17And so now I say that an improvement potentially over last year, where
- 1:09:23he gave up ninety seven stolen bases in seventy six games started seventy eight total.
- 1:09:28So I think, you know, he can actually be a booned for
- 1:09:31the other team and himself as he comes up here. But I think you're
- 1:09:34right, like he is that kind of guy that can boost the average.
- 1:09:39I think the Rockies have to give him a look. I'm just really concerned
- 1:09:42if he sticks at catcher, like and if he doesn't, I don't know
- 1:09:45that he has another spot, Like the profile is not strong enough around the
- 1:09:49rest of his you know, his power, his speed, like he has
- 1:09:55a really good profiles a hit or for a catcher, but it doesn't play
- 1:10:00the rest of the way. So he was a first round competitive balance pick,
- 1:10:02like there's you know, he has the pedigree. You know, it'll
- 1:10:06be interesting. I think there is a little Colorado shining here. But if
- 1:10:10he doesn't stick to Colorado, I'm I'm a little less interested in Romo here.
- 1:10:15But for the point of batting average, he gets called up and you're
- 1:10:18getting killed at catcher with average, I think he's your guy for sure in
- 1:10:23Colorado, and you have to hope he's daching. Yeah, unless you're on
- 1:10:28the opposing team running. I mean, yeah, then you certainly will be
- 1:10:32tracking that. So it was I mean, that's like a twenty five percent
- 1:10:35caught stealing rate, which isn't absurd, Like that's the round like where like
- 1:10:43Logan o'hoppy caper leiz our boy pedro pahes like so I think I mean,
- 1:10:50if he can convert that straight into major League Baseball, it would play.
- 1:10:55But even I mean eliast Das is that seventeen percent caught stealing, Like,
- 1:11:01there's some pretty poor arms out there, so I think Romo can fit in.
- 1:11:06I am also overlooking Hunter Goodman's involvement here at the catcher position, but
- 1:11:11like Romo's gonna come up with catch your eligibility, and like I just it
- 1:11:15kind of boils down to, like, I don't the Rockies have to play
- 1:11:19him at some point? Like why would you waste a first round pick on
- 1:11:21this guy and just let him rot in your minor league system and lose into
- 1:11:27a Rule five draft? I don't know. There's a few guys you could
- 1:11:30probably ask that question too for the Rockies. Yeah, yeah, you need
- 1:11:34to bring c A on to let out a little bit of a Rockies rant
- 1:11:39because I feel his pain often. Okay, well, let's move on to
- 1:11:44stolen bases, where honestly, we had a I think a lot of choices
- 1:11:47between There's lots of players in the minor league flashing all sorts of speed,
- 1:11:54and I think what's hard to parse apart is obviously some of them are stealing
- 1:11:58these bags against the likes of Drew Romo, and also like can they hit
- 1:12:03enough and can they get on base enough to be able to use that speed.
- 1:12:06So it is a little bit of like a combination if you've got to
- 1:12:09find somebody with enough batting average, enough on base skills to be able to
- 1:12:13get to the speed. And so I think we've got a couple of names
- 1:12:15here. I will let you make your pick for stolen bases. Yeah,
- 1:12:20and so this is one that I called it out earlier. I went a
- 1:12:25little bit off the reservation on this one, and I'm going with Cooper Bowman
- 1:12:31from the Oakland Athletics. He's in Double A, he's twenty four years old,
- 1:12:36and you know, he's a he's a second baseman for the Athletics.
- 1:12:41He actually came over in the Frankie Montas deal, you know, about a
- 1:12:46year a year and a half ago for Oakland. And what intrigues me about
- 1:12:53Cooper Bowman is, over the last two seasons, in a combined we'll call
- 1:12:59it one hundred and thirty games, he's stolen sixty bases and got caught six
- 1:13:04times. And I'm not an expert, but that's pretty good. And you
- 1:13:11know, if you look at how he's doing it, he's getting on base.
- 1:13:14He's walking a little over twelve percent of the time this year. He
- 1:13:19does have a little pop, so he can get on base. He definitely
- 1:13:26is a guy that has kind of risen up. He was a fourth round
- 1:13:30draft pick and he's been you know, w RC plus has been hovering in
- 1:13:34the one ten, one twenty range. So the thing I like about him
- 1:13:39is he's, you know, he looks like he's ready for major league baseball.
- 1:13:44He's kind of gonna hit in the i'll call it two fifty range to
- 1:13:47forty range, but he's gonna walk enough that his OBP is gonna be in
- 1:13:51the two or sorry, the three thirty range, three twenty range, somewhere
- 1:13:57like that. So if he gets on, he can move, he can
- 1:13:59run, and he can make an impact. And with an Oakland like they
- 1:14:02they're the team that needs to see what they got and so they're very likely
- 1:14:06to move off of some guys and give him an opportunity. And you know,
- 1:14:11he's he's played a little bit all over the diamond in the minors this
- 1:14:15year. He's played the majority of the time at second base, but he's
- 1:14:17played a handful of games at third. He's played a handful of games at
- 1:14:21short. He's DHD a little bit like he's done a little bit of everything.
- 1:14:28And so I think he's the only guy gets called up. They play
- 1:14:30him all over the place, give guys a chance to rest, and they
- 1:14:34try to see what they have there. And Cooper Bowman and the other thing.
- 1:14:39I like, he's free. Nobody else picked him up, Nobody else
- 1:14:42is really looking at him. He's in Oakland. Everybody's read him off.
- 1:14:45He's not a big name, but the profile just screams opportunity to run.
- 1:14:50And it's not that he just runs whenever he's on, no matter what,
- 1:14:56he's running and doing it in the right situations and being effective at it.
- 1:15:00I really like Cooper Bowman. He's a guy I'm gonna keep an eye on
- 1:15:02if he gets called up. I'm definitely definitely making a play on him.
- 1:15:06Yeah, And I think I just like you, was not familiar with his
- 1:15:11game until you put him on the rundown list. And the more and more
- 1:15:15I look at it, the more and more I like it. Because he's
- 1:15:17getting on base at like a three sixty clip down in double A the past
- 1:15:20couple of years. The speed comes with non zero pop that you know,
- 1:15:27he's got eight homers both this year and last year with an iso that is,
- 1:15:30you know, in the one seventy ish range, and I think it
- 1:15:36is showing that, you know, it's not a lot of like these kind
- 1:15:39of like hustle doubles and stuff too, that you know, there is a
- 1:15:43little bit of zip in that bat. Again, like Drew Romo, he's
- 1:15:46Rule five eligible in December, so if Oakland wants to see what Bowman can
- 1:15:50do at a major league level, they've got to put him on the forty
- 1:15:54man roster or lose him to the Rule five draft in December. So I
- 1:16:00think this is a great pick because Oakland's roster will be in flux next month,
- 1:16:04as you know, they're going to try to trade as much value off
- 1:16:09of that major league roster that they can and then maybe like DFA's some of
- 1:16:13the guys who aren't cutting it and haven't had any trade values. So it's
- 1:16:17pretty easy to see how Bowman makes his way into the majors by the end
- 1:16:21of the year and becomes a stone based asset in September. Yeah, I'm
- 1:16:27excited for really the only guy I feel like Oakland's not going to trade is
- 1:16:30that gaylaf and so like he is the second baseman, but Tyler Nevin is
- 1:16:34not holding him back. Max Schuman's not holding anybody back, Miguel Andrew Harr
- 1:16:39isn't holding anybody back. I guess Britt Rooker is probably not going anywhere quite
- 1:16:45yet. But yeah, there's definitely gonna be an opportunity for playing time.
- 1:16:49And you're right with being Rule five eligible. With how he's looked on paper,
- 1:16:55that's a good team's picking him up just to throw him as a as
- 1:16:58a you know you bench you guy they can get on, run, draw
- 1:17:01a walk, like they've got to see what they have in him and see
- 1:17:04if it's something that they can trade in three years from now. Okay,
- 1:17:10Well, the guy that I'm gonna go with is probably, I mean,
- 1:17:13like the de facto speed guy in the miners right now, and that is
- 1:17:16but he just kind of hasn't gotten too much I think talk in terms of
- 1:17:20our fantasy game, that is Chandler Simpson, an outfielder for the Tampa Bay
- 1:17:25Rays, partly because I think people are a little gunshy about this type of
- 1:17:29profile after what Victor Scott did to us in the spring. The difference is
- 1:17:33that Victor Scott was I think still had some seasoning to go through. If
- 1:17:38it hadn't been for just the deluge of injuries that the Cardinals had in the
- 1:17:43outfield in the spring, we would have seen any Victor Scott until like August.
- 1:17:48And the reason is, like, it's just really hard to put the
- 1:17:53bat on the ball, but Simpson can do that. You know, he's
- 1:17:57only striking out five percent of the time down in Double A and then just
- 1:18:00kind of slapping it into the ground, letting the speed run where it's gonna
- 1:18:03play. Because the stude's an eighty grade runner, He's just peer speed.
- 1:18:09I think it's also a good test case for like what Enrique Bradford can be
- 1:18:13like, or Bradfields can be coming up through the Baltimore Oriol system. So
- 1:18:17like, not only am it I'm kind of like tracking Bradfield like along here,
- 1:18:23but like it'll be interesting, I think as a test case for the
- 1:18:28future, just like all development in dynasty and keeper leagues, because I think
- 1:18:31the teams are gonna start bringing through lots of more guys like these with the
- 1:18:35lax stole and base rules. Because once he's able to get on base,
- 1:18:42Simpson's pretty much almost automatically on third because of the speed and the steals.
- 1:18:46And I think, just like what we've talked about a bit with Colorado and
- 1:18:50with Oakland, Tampa's been struggling a lot too, and if they decide to
- 1:18:55sell at the deadline, Simpson I think could find his way up to the
- 1:19:00majors as the Rays want to figure out, you know what his kind of
- 1:19:03peak is. You know, is this guy going to turn into something maybe
- 1:19:08akin to like a Carl Crawford or is he going to be what April Victor
- 1:19:11Scott was And the best way to figure that out is to give him a
- 1:19:15cup of tea down the stretch and just I guess cup of coffee, not
- 1:19:19cup of tea. I was thinking at the current meme. But Chandler Simpson
- 1:19:27is also left handed too, which I love to see. So he's just
- 1:19:30doing what he can to get on base and then running any chance he can.
- 1:19:35So he's got fifty three stolen bases right now between Hyga and Double A.
- 1:19:43He's gonna push one hundred bags between the two levels, just the way
- 1:19:47that Victor Scott did last year. And so I think because of like what
- 1:19:54we were doing with Scott in our game, and honestly, like Scott still
- 1:19:56got that long term viability just because of the speed and if he can figure
- 1:20:00out how to get on base as often as Chandler Simpson can put up before
- 1:20:05thirty one opp in ia before getting moved up, that's absurd. He's also
- 1:20:12projected for one hundred WRC plus and Steamer right now with a two seventy average,
- 1:20:15So it's just a really intriguing profile. And I can't not like just
- 1:20:21want to take that shot on Chandler Simpson because sure the power is going to
- 1:20:27be lacking, but like this is like the closest thing we've had to Billy
- 1:20:30Hamilton, I think in a little bit in our game, and uh,
- 1:20:34it can be a total game changer. Yeah, you know, the only
- 1:20:40thing that I have against uh Chandler Simpson at this point is vital version because
- 1:20:45I feel like we've been here before. But that's like completely like means nothing.
- 1:20:50The Rays do always scare me with prospects, but you're right, like
- 1:20:54he is that Victor Scott, Like he's lightning the bottle, He's the Billy
- 1:20:57Hamilton. He's like what you're looking for. And because of how game changing
- 1:21:01he can be you have to try, You have to try, and it
- 1:21:05looks to be pretty good. Like the question is, is like when he
- 1:21:09gets like he has that kind of I would called the slap hitter approach,
- 1:21:14patient of the plate, very consistent, gonna leg out a lot of infielled
- 1:21:17singles, things like that. Is that going to translate enough to the majors?
- 1:21:21If it can, then absolutely fantastic And and there's nothing you can see
- 1:21:26right now that shows that it won't. But it does seem that these kind
- 1:21:29of guys that have that heavy speed not very much power do tend to struggle
- 1:21:33a little bit when they get called out, and so it'll be interesting to
- 1:21:36see. But you're absolutely right, like they've got to give him a chance.
- 1:21:40He's like, nothing's scaring him right now in the minors, so he's
- 1:21:44I would be surprised if he's not up August timeframe, would be would be
- 1:21:47my guest on on something something at this point in time. And honestly,
- 1:21:54the person I should have been comparing him to is one Pier like one Pierre
- 1:21:57also ran a five percent walk rate five percent k rate in his entire career.
- 1:22:01That I think what made Wan Pierre stick out is that Pierre was able
- 1:22:06to make enough contact where like he just would spoil off pitches and foul off
- 1:22:12pitches until he got one that he could pound it to the ground just correctly.
- 1:22:15And if Simpson can get a similar skill where if you can just have
- 1:22:19that patience foul off pitches until you get one that you can actually like push
- 1:22:25through a hole or you know, actually put down for a bunt, that's
- 1:22:30really game changing in baseball. Yeah, okay, well let's move over to
- 1:22:35the pitching side, which is always dicey, but we're going to give it
- 1:22:39a shot anyways. And we're even gonna give a shot at the hardest category
- 1:22:45I think to try to predict, and that is wins, mostly because we've
- 1:22:48got a couple of players who are going deeper into games, which is what
- 1:22:55you're gonna need for wins, and also play for teams that are either sore
- 1:23:00above. So we've got a couple of choices this year. I will let
- 1:23:03you take the first crack here. Yeah, so I'm gonna go with a
- 1:23:09homer pick, which is okay, because this is our podcast, thame do
- 1:23:12what I want. I'm gonna go with Quinn Matthews of the Saint Louis Cardinals.
- 1:23:16Matthews just got promoted two days ago from High A Peoria to Double A
- 1:23:21Springfield. I don't think he's made his first start yet, but you know,
- 1:23:29he he was a fourth round draft pick out of Stanford, and he
- 1:23:32didn't pitch at all last year because he amassed like one hundred and twenty hundred
- 1:23:36and thirty innings at Stanford last year, so they just kind of let him
- 1:23:40rest and not do anything with him. And he has come out of the
- 1:23:44gates on fire this year and he's showing all the things that that you look
- 1:23:49for. You know, he he's pitched an A, Hi A. You
- 1:23:54know he's going to Double A, and you know, across the those two
- 1:24:01levels, he's got A he's got seventy four innings, so he's already pitching
- 1:24:05a lot. He's going deep into games. He is getting six and seven
- 1:24:09innings every single time out. He's got a two point one eight earra.
- 1:24:14His he's got about a seven percent walk rate in an only nearly forty percent
- 1:24:19k rate, you know, has dropped. His k rate dropped a little
- 1:24:24bit when he got to High A, but then his walk rate got even
- 1:24:27better. He was walking less than two guys per per nine. But what's
- 1:24:30really intriguing of him is when he was at Stanford, he was like a
- 1:24:35ninety to ninety two mile per hour guy. He's been averaging like ninety four
- 1:24:41to ninety five, touching ninety seven this year, and so he's looked really,
- 1:24:45really good. Like I've seen comparisons to say that he's like challenging Tinkns
- 1:24:48for the best prospect in the Cardinals minor league system. And when we talk
- 1:24:54about guys that you're looking for wins, he's goes deep into games. You
- 1:24:59know, he doesn't throw a ton of pitches because he he keeps the ball
- 1:25:02on the ground. You know, I love it. He doesn't walk a
- 1:25:04lot of guys, and he's he's older, like he's a college rooven pitcher,
- 1:25:12so he doesn't need a ton of time in the minors. And then
- 1:25:15you're talking about a team that's now what four games over five hundred in Saint
- 1:25:17Louis. I still don't feel like they're that good they've been. I don't
- 1:25:21know where they got that, but they're still trying to figure out what to
- 1:25:26do with the back of that rotation with guys like Matthew Lebator and you know,
- 1:25:30trying to keep everybody else healthy, like it's it's gonna be interesting.
- 1:25:33So does he make it up this year? I don't know, but there's
- 1:25:40enough good things going the Quinn Matthews is really really interesting and he does fit
- 1:25:45that prototypical kind of workhorse that the Cardinals absolutely love. So yeah, definitely
- 1:25:50a guy the worth throwing a buck at here or just washing to see what
- 1:25:56he does when he hits hits double A. Yeah, I'm I mean I
- 1:26:00think he. I do think he's coming up this year just because the Cardinals
- 1:26:04do need another picture and especially like a lightning in a bottle pitcher that can
- 1:26:12be just the standout star and kind of like you can start getting excited for
- 1:26:16every fifth day. That that's I think a lot of what the rotation and
- 1:26:20the team overall is just kind of sorely lacking. Is that kind of exciting
- 1:26:27young star that you know, Jordan Walker was supposed to be and Gorman does
- 1:26:30every once in a while, but then we'll go like one for twenty four
- 1:26:34and then a we can Matthews I think can step into that role in Saint
- 1:26:40Louis. He's got such a great like frame for a picture that you love
- 1:26:44to see, you know, six to five listened at one eighty eight,
- 1:26:46but it's put on a little bit more bulk since he's come over from the
- 1:26:49draft last year just absolutely shredding guys down in high A. I think he's
- 1:26:56going to do the same at double A. And it's going to be hard
- 1:26:58for the Cardinals to say that there's much more to work on because we've talked
- 1:27:02about this before. The classic ten step there's no such thing as a pitching
- 1:27:09prospect acronym is because what you should be doing is when a pitcher is ready
- 1:27:14to go, you got to bring them up and use those bullets that he's
- 1:27:17gotten that arm in the major leagues while they're going. So I think Quinn
- 1:27:23Matthews fits exactly into that bucket. I think you can just look at like
- 1:27:28how the Braves have been successful over the past couple of years in terms of
- 1:27:32you know, promoting Strider quickly, promoting Schwellenbach, quickly, promoting the shover
- 1:27:38quickly, that the Cardinals need to do something similar. I think with Matthews
- 1:27:43that they're going to be serious about contending for the playoff spot and into the
- 1:27:47playoffs at all. I think, so it'll be fun to see. I
- 1:27:53hope he gets a shot this year for sure. But what about you?
- 1:27:55Where are you going with for the on the wins? Okay, I'm going
- 1:27:59to go out to Boston, who also has been pretty solid of late and
- 1:28:02are now six games of five hundred, so they also have been struggling with
- 1:28:09kind of The Cardinals have been struggling with one rotation spot with Polante right now.
- 1:28:13The White Sox are red. Wow, that was quite the Floridian slip.
- 1:28:17The Red Sox have also been struggling with a spot where you know they've
- 1:28:24got when Kowski sitting in there now, but I mean he's better out of
- 1:28:28the bullpen. Brian Bayo has been really dismal of late, and I don't
- 1:28:33know like what his ultimate ceiling is going to be. And Richard Fitz,
- 1:28:40you can make all the jokes that you want to. We have constantly on
- 1:28:44ras Ball within the comments as this has been another one of Itch's favorite guys
- 1:28:47that he lists quite often and fits came over from the Yankees and he just
- 1:28:56looks ready. This is another guy where he he's actually roll five eligible in
- 1:29:01December, so it's confusing kind of what they're trying to do to figure out,
- 1:29:05you know, what last pieces they need to put together for him,
- 1:29:10But he looks like a pretty polished pitcher in terms of I would say,
- 1:29:15like more like if you took Drew Thorpe and gave him a little bit worse
- 1:29:20change up, and you know, that's what you're looking at here. Maybe
- 1:29:25somebody who's going to be more in like the eight k nine range, a
- 1:29:29little bit more like an average four ish era. But if you're chasing wins,
- 1:29:32the Red Sox have been playing pretty well. The bullpen behind him would
- 1:29:36be relatively steady, even though, like I know, people don't always feel
- 1:29:41great about Kenley Jansen, like getting too Kenley Jansen forces you go through Chris
- 1:29:45Martin and Justin Slayton, who have been pretty solid. The lineup is really
- 1:29:50starting to come together for Boston as well as Cassas is going to be back
- 1:29:55here pretty soon, So I think that the Red Sox could really squeak out
- 1:30:00like a ninety win season here. And if fits is going every fifth day,
- 1:30:04you're looking at a pretty solid piece to pick up some wins maybe out
- 1:30:10of nowhere. So I don't think we like him as much as like some
- 1:30:13of the other pictures we've talked about because the ground ball rate isn't quite where
- 1:30:16we want it to be. But when you're chasing wins, you're chasing wins,
- 1:30:20and sometimes you've got to like roll with maybe a slightly less skilled pitcher
- 1:30:26on a talented team to be able to get those wins. Yeah, and
- 1:30:30I think Fits is gonna be interesting because he was a he was a college
- 1:30:33reliever that they've tried out as a starter and so like he's gone seven innings,
- 1:30:38he's gone four, he's gone two, Like he's thrown up there,
- 1:30:43you know, ninety five, Like he's the variable outcomes are more. But
- 1:30:47to your point, like he does seem like he could be lightning in a
- 1:30:50bottle for the Red Sox, And they do like to try out these young
- 1:30:56kind of fireballers that could be bullping guys or not. I'llah, Garrett Whitlock,
- 1:31:01Tanner, how like that. There's guys that they've done this with before,
- 1:31:05and so I think Fits is the next guy that they're gonna try to
- 1:31:09see what happens because he's got three good pitches. The change up still a
- 1:31:14little bit questionable, but I think, you know, it'll be interesting to
- 1:31:17see. But if to your point, there's not a lot standing in this
- 1:31:20way, and if they're you know, going forward with I think I saw
- 1:31:26a note from Alex korusaying like we've actually got to try this year or something
- 1:31:29like that I'm paraphrasing, but like we've actually got to make some moves of
- 1:31:32the deadline. You have to think that they're gonna push guys like Richard Fitz
- 1:31:36up to the majors because he he doesn't like, doesn't have anything else left
- 1:31:42left to prove, like he's Rule five eligible this year, he's twenty four,
- 1:31:46Like what else do you want from the guy? Just give him a
- 1:31:50shot? So it'll be fun to see when when that happens, But it
- 1:31:56can't be too far off. Yeah, I can't imagine so either. So
- 1:32:00let's move on to the strikeouts category, and I will let you open with
- 1:32:04the guy that we have leaded to coming up at the beginning of the pod.
- 1:32:08So they if you've stuck around long enough, here is your analysis of
- 1:32:13David Festa. Yeah we didn't bury that lead at all. But yeah,
- 1:32:17so David Festa I mentioned earlier, you know taking you know, weapon's sake
- 1:32:24is Chris Paddock's spot in the rotation. I think he's gonna be able to
- 1:32:27last there. He's a four pitch guy, you know, he was actually
- 1:32:31a thirteenth rounder and it's kind of just made his way and continue to improve
- 1:32:36his stock throughout his minor league career. But he's been incredibly consistent wherever he's
- 1:32:42gone. You know, he's a guy that this year he's ticked up the
- 1:32:45strikeouts to thirteen kper nine across sixty innings, but in the past he's been
- 1:32:51anywhere from a ten to twelve kper nine guy. Generally, his controls had
- 1:32:57held pretty well the mid to low three walk for nine and ground ball guy.
- 1:33:02He's not like significant groundball guy, but he generally keeps on the ground
- 1:33:08forty five to fifty percent of the time, which is what you like to
- 1:33:12see. So I think what's gonna be interesting with him is to see,
- 1:33:15really, you know, how well that that fastball is gonna play, uh
- 1:33:19for for FESTA and at the major league level. Uh you know, if
- 1:33:24you look at the projection systems, they're all kind of on him as kind
- 1:33:28of a just blow a caper inning type type of guy. But he does
- 1:33:32have, you know, a pretty strong arsenal that I think is gonna get
- 1:33:40to challenge major league kidders. So, you know, if you're looking for
- 1:33:44a guy, now that we know he's called up, I think you should
- 1:33:46be picking up Festa wherever there's a chance and seeing what you have because I
- 1:33:50think he's gonna have a leash and I think that, you know, compared
- 1:33:55to some other guys that we've seen recently, like a Drew Thorpeer thing things
- 1:33:58like that, I think his art is going to play a little bit better.
- 1:34:01So how about you, Where are you on Festa? Yeah? Absolutely,
- 1:34:04And part of it is just like the size. Festa is a behem
- 1:34:08at these six y six and just towers over people when he's on the mound.
- 1:34:13I think that adds to an intimidation factor. I've had him stashed away
- 1:34:16in a couple places, and so I've been waiting for this for about a
- 1:34:20month. I think that is Festa should have been up for a while,
- 1:34:26especially as the twins are right in the middle of that dogfight for the wild
- 1:34:31card, and I think you can almost like set it and forget it the
- 1:34:35rest of the year because I think Minnesota is going to be keeping him up.
- 1:34:40I think he's going to be a pretty steady pitcher down the stretch.
- 1:34:43I love when guys like this and Noel get called up because it makes my
- 1:34:46life very easy writing that Waiver Wire report on the weekend, not hard to
- 1:34:51figure out who to suggest to pick up. Because I think Festa no matter
- 1:34:58like the league depth, I think you've got to take a shot on him,
- 1:35:00because the ceiling is pretty incredible here that we're looking at somebody who could
- 1:35:04be like a number two or three starter for the Twins at peak, and
- 1:35:12they play against the Tigers and the White Sox a lot here in the second
- 1:35:15half, so you're obviously going to take advantage of those matchups. And you
- 1:35:21know, not a bad park either. So I think that everything that you
- 1:35:26expounded upon with Festa is exactly what we're looking for in terms of like somebody
- 1:35:30who can walk into a rotation and just be a little bit of like a
- 1:35:35yeah, like I said, a seid and forget it, like top sixty
- 1:35:40ish starter, probably like somewhere sixty to eighty. Like, I think he's
- 1:35:45going to be a pretty solid rotation piece. Yeah, I think I think
- 1:35:49you're right, probably that sixty to seventy revenge with upside it is kind of
- 1:35:54what I look, So, all right, finish us out. Who do
- 1:35:57you have here for your your pitcher in the strikeout category? Okay, I'm
- 1:36:01going to go with Carson wizzen Hunt from the San Francisco Giants, and he
- 1:36:08has been If you look at the overall like profile with the five twenty nine
- 1:36:15ARRA right now, you might not think that this is a great choice,
- 1:36:18but he has certainly been better as of late, especially since the beginning of
- 1:36:24May, he has had a four to seventy four RA. Honestly, his
- 1:36:29last outing wasn't terribly great, but I think that he's also like starting to
- 1:36:32get into this point where he's just been hanging out and triple A and double
- 1:36:38A and kind of like on the cusp of promotion for the Giants for a
- 1:36:41long time that you can see these types of players just kind of get bored
- 1:36:46with it all overall. And I think if you're looking for a case of
- 1:36:50like where wizzen Hunt can be, just kind of look at what Kyle Harrison
- 1:36:55has been. Wizzen Hunts also left handed, has a really dirty change up
- 1:37:00that he can use to punch out picture punch out hitters. And you're looking
- 1:37:04at somebody who who has a twelve K nine right now in triple A.
- 1:37:09I think it'll translate pretty well, just given that the arsenal and the delivery
- 1:37:14method that he's got. All the reports from wizen Hunt have always kind of
- 1:37:19you know, these type of pictures where they're on the line of like is
- 1:37:24a reliever is he a starter? Is usually because like the stuff is so
- 1:37:28nasty. It's whether or not that he can like put enough control on it
- 1:37:31to be able to go deep enough as a starter. But like, this
- 1:37:35is a great situation in San Francisco, given the way that they approach pitching
- 1:37:40and like, don't always use traditional starters, don't always use traditional relievers,
- 1:37:45mix and match a lot that as long as you can get like wizen Hunt
- 1:37:48in there and you know, pitching five ish innings a week, you could
- 1:37:53be walking away with some pretty good strikeout upside. Yeah, I think,
- 1:37:58you know. And he's the kind of guy that I look at the just
- 1:38:00like all these random little red flags with like the walk grade and the fly
- 1:38:02ball right and things like that, and then they go, he's in San
- 1:38:04Francisco. Yes, where if any of that's gonna work, it's gonna be
- 1:38:09San Francisco and they're willing to call these kind of guys up with like Harrison
- 1:38:13last year that and just see what they got. And so to that point,
- 1:38:16like is he gonna be the guy with the lowest whip or you know,
- 1:38:19the lowest era or things like that. I don't think so. I
- 1:38:21think he's gonna have some blow ups here and there, But like if you
- 1:38:25need K's I think, I mean, he's he's got a nasty change up
- 1:38:29and he's going to get whiffs on it, and he's gonna get hitters set
- 1:38:31up and so he's gonna strike out guys and uh, he's gonna accumulate those
- 1:38:34those stats and so that you know, if you're needing that help. He's
- 1:38:40absolutely a guy that I think is gonna get a chance this year. And
- 1:38:43you know, the he doesn't have a whole lot left to do in the
- 1:38:45miners at this point besides get called up. So let's see where wizz Hunt
- 1:38:51ends up here. But I think it's a that's a good call. He's
- 1:38:56definitely a guy that can make an impact on on the rest of this fantasy
- 1:39:00season, let alone next. So yeah, and with wizzen Hunt two,
- 1:39:04I like it's hard for me to keep track of this sometimes when I'm looking
- 1:39:09at Triple A pitching stats is like the PCL is a crazy hitters environment,
- 1:39:13and so like it doesn't always translate well with those walks that I mean,
- 1:39:18it's very possible that Wizzen Hunt in Triple A has that elevated walk rate because
- 1:39:23he's just hunting and pecking a little bit extra to be able to avoid the
- 1:39:28huge blow ups. And so that is like a grain of salt that you
- 1:39:30have to take, like all the PCL numbers with. And so we are
- 1:39:34going through those leader boards that we were talking about on panographs, doing your
- 1:39:39filters, looking at Triple A pitchers, trying to find your own gems.
- 1:39:43That's a good place to try to also find a little bit of like an
- 1:39:46advantage over your league mates is looking at those Triple A stats and trying to
- 1:39:50translate them out of that crazy hitter environment that is happening right now. Okay,
- 1:39:59well that's going to wrap us up for this week. I think that's
- 1:40:01a lot of great category coverage that we've provided on the prospect end. If
- 1:40:05you've got anybody else out there that you're considering for your teams, certainly reach
- 1:40:10out to us. Email the pod at cards Categories at gmail dot com,
- 1:40:15or reach us on Twitter slash x at cards categories. Brew Let everybody else
- 1:40:20know where they can find you and your work. Yep, you can find
- 1:40:25me over on Twitter slash x. I don't know how long much as longer
- 1:40:28I can call it Twitter, but I'm going to keep rolling with it,
- 1:40:30and we're in episode fifty Twitter slash x at Jaybrewer one seven. You can
- 1:40:34find me in rasball on the weekends doing hitter profiles in the top one hundred
- 1:40:40hitters for the rest of the season over on Sundays. So coolly, how
- 1:40:43about you where folks find you? Yeah, you can find me on Saturdays
- 1:40:47during the wave or wire report on ras ball where you can check out the
- 1:40:54suggested pickups that aren't just know well and festa that I will have other players
- 1:40:59out there for you too. I think especially going to be honing in on
- 1:41:01trying to set ourselves up for the second half, as we did eclipse the
- 1:41:05halfway point for the regular season this week. You can find me on Twitter
- 1:41:12slash x. I will still keep calling it Twitter as long as they call
- 1:41:15it tweets, which I mean you would think that they would bring those together.
- 1:41:18But whatever, you can find me there and Blue Sky at M cool
- 1:41:24seven. If you want any cards and categories merchandise, check out the link
- 1:41:29in the show notes where you can get hats, t shirts, onesies,
- 1:41:33coffee mugs. If you want anything else, you can certainly reach out to
- 1:41:36us. I can slap the logo on just about anything. And if you
- 1:41:41have enjoyed this podcast, I would hope so you've been listening to well over
- 1:41:45ninety minutes of us talk, great review comment on the podcast. Wherever you're
- 1:41:50listening to us, we would really greatly appreciate it, and we will be
- 1:41:57not back again next week. We are taking off next week actually for the
- 1:42:00fourth of July holiday, so we will be back in two weeks where we
- 1:42:04will be able to cover the June Player of the Month PC. So we
- 1:42:09will see you then and there in a couple of weeks. Take care everybody,