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Why earnings results don't matter as much this time around · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, we're two here on the Financial Exchange. It's Chuck, Mike,
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  Speaker 2: and Tucker with you. The Dow is currently up four
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  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty seven point of rooneyes about one point
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  Speaker 2: one percent, The S and P is up sixty eight
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  Speaker 2: points about one to a quarter percent, and the Nasdaq
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  Speaker 2: up two hundred and twenty points or about one point
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  Speaker 2: three percent, So all three major US indices in the green.
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  Speaker 2: As we kick off another week here, Tenure US Treasury
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  Speaker 2: seeing yields come in a little bit, making up some
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  Speaker 2: of the ground they lost last week. Tenure now at
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  Speaker 2: four point four zero five percent, down eight point eight
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  Speaker 2: basis points. Mortgage News Daily reporting on Friday that the
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  Speaker 2: national average for a thirty or fixed rate mortgage stood
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  Speaker 2: at seven point oh seven percent by the end of
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  Speaker 2: the day. They update that every day, so we'll see
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  Speaker 2: where this move down in yields takes mortgage rates as
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  Speaker 2: we go through the day. We've got oil West Texas
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  Speaker 2: intermediate of twenty seven cents a barrel to sixty one
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  Speaker 2: to seventy seven TRIPA national averageur gas price is continuing
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  Speaker 2: to slide down another five tenths of a cent or
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  Speaker 2: half a cent if you will, to three eighteen and
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  Speaker 2: four tenths. So again still no conclusive direction, but starting
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  Speaker 2: to move back down and reversing some of the gains
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  Speaker 2: that we saw over the last month or so. And
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  Speaker 2: we've got gold today taken a bit of a breather
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  Speaker 2: after hitting all time highs on Friday, down sixteen dollars
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  Speaker 2: and ninety cents, nounce to thirty two to twenty seven
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  Speaker 2: and seventy cents. Anything else catching you or I Michael not?
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  Speaker 3: Market wise.
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  Speaker 2: The big news over the weekend was the announcement on
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  Speaker 2: Friday evening that was picked up on Saturday morning of
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  Speaker 2: computers and smartphones and things like that being exempted from
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  Speaker 2: the reciprocal tariffs that were added in. As you would expect,
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  Speaker 2: Apple stock up about three point seven percent today. The
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  Speaker 2: interesting thing the rest of the semiconductor space not really
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  Speaker 2: as much movement as you would you know, think to
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  Speaker 2: see upward. Nvidia is up about one and a half percent,
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  Speaker 2: but broad Colm another company that's really benefited from kind
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  Speaker 2: of the whole AI boom is a you know, they're
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  Speaker 2: a big supplier of back end products. They're actually down
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  Speaker 2: a third of a percent today on the news, Qualcom
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  Speaker 2: up one and a quarter percent, AMD up about threes.
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  Speaker 2: So again, you've got kind of a broad based rally
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  Speaker 2: that's happening here. But it's not like it's just tech
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  Speaker 2: leading the way aside from Apple. Really yeah, and.
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  Speaker 3: I think that kind of makes sense. We had a
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  Speaker 3: whole lot of volatility of the course of course of
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  Speaker 3: the last week on these announcements of and then waiver
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  Speaker 3: of tariffs. I think a lot of that has burned
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  Speaker 3: off at this point, and investors are instead sitting here
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  Speaker 3: saying really unclear what happens next. So let's let's take
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  Speaker 3: a wait and see approach seems to be the thinking.
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  Speaker 3: But that wait and see approach can only last so
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  Speaker 3: long should economic data on just the fundamentals outside of
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  Speaker 3: teriffs continue to deteriorate in the way that it has
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  Speaker 3: so far.
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  Speaker 2: Basically from barons and other earning season is here, here's
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  Speaker 2: why the results don't matter as much this time around.
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  Speaker 2: And it's not saying that the earnings don't matter. It's
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  Speaker 2: just saying that the earnings don't matter. Really, what it's
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  Speaker 2: getting at here is, look, it doesn't matter what companies
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  Speaker 2: tell us about their Q one earnings. True, it's going
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  Speaker 2: to matter more more than usual what they tell us
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  Speaker 2: about how their business has been in the last two
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  Speaker 2: to three weeks and what they expect for the rest.
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  Speaker 1: Of the year.
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  Speaker 3: Yeap, do you expect any I expect some real answers
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  Speaker 3: on the first question two to three weeks? How what
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  Speaker 3: have you seen over the course of the last two
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  Speaker 3: to three weeks? Beyond that? For a very large number
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  Speaker 3: of businesses, isn't the answer just gonna be We're gonna
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  Speaker 3: have to wait and see because our earth innings could
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  Speaker 3: be anywhere around this number with you know, seventy percent
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  Speaker 3: to either direction.
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  Speaker 2: Which if that's the case, you're going to see companies
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  Speaker 2: just pulling guidance. This has been talked about a lot,
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  Speaker 2: but companies are not going to say, well, our earnings
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  Speaker 2: could be between one dollar and a million dollars a share.
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  Speaker 2: They're just gonna say, we're gonna pull our guidance, we'll
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  Speaker 2: update you when we know more, right, which is perfectly
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  Speaker 2: except which is the responsible thing to do. It's remember
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  Speaker 2: there's no requirement that companies have to give financial guidance. Generally,
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  Speaker 2: they choose to because it helps to provide investors with
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  Speaker 2: more of a framework to evaluate the company and give
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  Speaker 2: clarity as to what management expects. But it's it's not
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  Speaker 2: a requirement that companies have to give guidance as to
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  Speaker 2: what the next six, twelve or eighteen months of earnings
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  Speaker 2: are going to be. That's something that companies choose to do.
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  Speaker 3: There are a few companies out there that, you know,
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  Speaker 3: it will not be surprising if we hear about going
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  Speaker 3: concern risks. They don't do that during earnings calls. No,
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  Speaker 3: they do that when they are worried about it going concern.
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  Speaker 3: It just means that, hey, we might not have a
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  Speaker 3: business model in the short in the near future if
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  Speaker 3: they go out with that. But there are some companies
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  Speaker 3: there that should they not get exemptions to terras we
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  Speaker 3: talked about, you know, consumer products that import just about
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  Speaker 3: everything from China. It's a real question mark as to
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  Speaker 3: how something like that continues to exist for any meaningful
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  Speaker 3: length of time in this scenario.
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  Speaker 2: It is so I think that you know, things that
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  Speaker 2: we remember the earning season really kicks off in earnest
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  Speaker 2: next week, next week, in the week after are the
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  Speaker 2: periods in which the vast majority of S and P
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  Speaker 2: five hundred companies are going to be reporting earnings and
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  Speaker 2: I think things to look forward just hey, you know,
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  Speaker 2: what's the context of how your business has evolved over
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  Speaker 2: the last month or two. Do you have any sense
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  Speaker 2: as to you know, how tariffs may impact your margins?
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  Speaker 2: Are you able to pass these costs along or are
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  Speaker 2: you being forced to eat them? What are you seeing
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  Speaker 2: as far as sales?
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  Speaker 1: Like?
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  Speaker 2: Those are the questions that you want analysts to be
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  Speaker 2: asking on these different earnings calls, and you would expect
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  Speaker 2: to be able to get some answers on those questions,
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  Speaker 2: even if you don't get all of them. Yep, there's
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  Speaker 2: made a lot of question marks. But yeah, that is
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  Speaker 2: what this earning season is about, not how much did
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  Speaker 2: you earn in the first quarter week. Dollar wishes are
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  Speaker 2: scary when granted that's a headline from Bloomberg and it
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  Speaker 2: talks about how, hey, a weaker dollar can have some
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  Speaker 2: negative effects the positive effects that the Trump administration is
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  Speaker 2: looking for. Weaker dollar means that you can export more
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  Speaker 2: easily because it becomes cheaper for international buyers to buy
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  Speaker 2: your stuff. It also is something awere from an earnings perspective. Hey,
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  Speaker 2: if you are selling products into Europe and the remember
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  Speaker 2: in Europe, you're selling in euros that converts back to
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  Speaker 2: more dollars if it is a weaker currency, and so
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  Speaker 2: it helps corporate earnings from that perspective, has help with
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  Speaker 2: the deficit relative to I'm just saying it has no impact.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I'm just thinking of if you are if presumably
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  Speaker 3: a weaker dollar means inflation, then you are paying it back.
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  Speaker 2: So remember weeker dollar is relative to other currencies, not
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  Speaker 2: relative to what it used to be worth. Right, And
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  Speaker 2: this is why I don't love this piece. Back in
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  Speaker 2: the first Trump term twenty seventeen, look at what the
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  Speaker 2: dollar did in twenty seventeen. In that year, it fell
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  Speaker 2: by about ten percent. Does anyone look at twenty seventeen
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  Speaker 2: and say, man, what a horrible year for the US economy? Right, No, No,
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  Speaker 2: we don't. It was it was just fine. It was
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  Speaker 2: really good. Actually, you were like on the cusp of
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  Speaker 2: you know what was probably one of the two or
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  Speaker 2: three best economies that we've seen in the last fifty years.
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  Speaker 2: You know, I put that like twenty twenty seventeen twenty
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  Speaker 2: nineteen economy up there with ninety five through ninety seven,
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  Speaker 2: probably like fifty two through fifty four, Like it's it's
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  Speaker 2: up there, I think fifty two through fifty four, Like
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  Speaker 2: I don't know.
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  Speaker 3: We're just describing it here with that explaining it was
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  Speaker 3: extraordinarily low unemployment, solid growth, and no inflation.
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  Speaker 2: No inflation mean not no, like very little you want
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  Speaker 2: it to be.
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  Speaker 3: You can describe part of the twenty twenties in a
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  Speaker 3: similar context on the first two. But obviously the thing
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  Speaker 3: that breaks that argument is the massive amounts of inflation
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  Speaker 3: that we saw in twenty twenty two and then continuing
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  Speaker 3: for a few years thereafter. Uh, there are a few
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  Speaker 3: economies that were chugging like those last twenty ten years were.
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  Speaker 2: Now, what this piece does get into is, hey, the
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  Speaker 2: ten percent slide in the dollar over the course of
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  Speaker 2: twenty seventeen was a measured and you know, coordinated and
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  Speaker 2: relatively slow push that happened over the course of the year.
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  Speaker 2: You do not see the dollar sliding five percent in
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  Speaker 2: the last week and a half as something that's necessarily
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  Speaker 2: comparable because it's compressed into a shorter period of time.
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  Speaker 2: It adds some additional con and so yeah, you've there's
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  Speaker 2: a difference in the path and magnitude that we are
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  Speaker 2: seeing there. But a week dollar in and of itself
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  Speaker 2: is not something that is inherently good, bad, or ugly
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  Speaker 2: for the US economy. It can act, as you know,
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  Speaker 2: any one of a million different things, depending on how
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  Speaker 2: exactly how it's implemented and how it ends up playing out.
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  Speaker 1: Tara Fever is in high gear. We've got the latest
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: on what might be next and how long it might last,
• 10:30
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• 10:35
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• 10:41
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• 10:45
  Speaker 2: Mike, We've got a piece in Bloomenberg talking about Goldman
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  Speaker 2: Sacks putting a price target on gold. How I mean,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: how can a company called Goldman Sachs put a price
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  Speaker 2: target on gold?
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  Speaker 3: They do see it going to at least sorry, not Goldman.
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  Speaker 3: An analyst at Goldman Sachs, which does not speak for
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  Speaker 3: the company as a whole, sees gold rallying to thirty
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  Speaker 3: seven hundred dollars announced by the end of this year.
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  Speaker 3: Price is hitting four thousand dollars announced by mid twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty six. Chuck is this is this significantly more useful
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  Speaker 3: than me trying to predict the weather? Two years from now.
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  Speaker 2: Nope, Okay, we just as an example, maybe a little
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  Speaker 2: bit more useful, but probably not significant. No, that would
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  Speaker 2: imply And I'm not trying to knock the Goldman analysts
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  Speaker 2: because I'm sure they're fine at their jobs. Like it's
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  Speaker 2: not a them thing. It's much more that for the
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  Speaker 2: average person, like the person on the outside, price targets
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  Speaker 2: on anything are about as useful as they don't provide
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  Speaker 2: any predictive value. And what I mean by this is
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  Speaker 2: coming into this year, the vast majority of S and
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  Speaker 2: P five hundred analysts had the S and P five
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  Speaker 2: hundred earning between eight and eleven percent this year, closing
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  Speaker 2: you know somewhere in the like sixty four hundred to
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  Speaker 2: sixty six hundred range. After the you know, uncertainty of
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  Speaker 2: the last month and a half, you now have the
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  Speaker 2: vast majority of them talking about downgrading their their S
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  Speaker 2: and P five hundred estimates and talking about how, you know,
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  Speaker 2: recessions possible, and that could mean things are even worse
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  Speaker 2: for the S and P five hundred. So it's not
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  Speaker 2: that these are inherently useless. But I've talked a lot
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  Speaker 2: about how I just I despise end of year price
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  Speaker 2: targets for anything, because it's not just that, hey, you
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  Speaker 2: may or may not hit that price target, but also
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  Speaker 2: the path to get their matters. As an example, let's
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  Speaker 2: say that the S and P five hundred this year
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  Speaker 2: went up to eight thousand and then closed its sixty
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  Speaker 2: five hundred. That's very different from the S ANDP going
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  Speaker 2: down to four thousand and then closing its sixty five hundred.
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  Speaker 2: The path matters in terms of how you feel what
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  Speaker 2: happened in between, So like you're in. Price targets to
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  Speaker 2: me are kind of useless because they don't actually tell
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  Speaker 2: you anything about how you get there, and who knows
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  Speaker 2: if they're actually going to be accurate. The other thing
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  Speaker 2: is generally, when you look at, you know, the positioning
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  Speaker 2: that most analysts have on these things, they basically are
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  Speaker 2: always like, okay, long term equity returns are somewhere around
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  Speaker 2: like seven to eight percent. We're going to be plus
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  Speaker 2: or minus a couple percentage points of there, and that's
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  Speaker 2: where we think the S and P is going to be.
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  Speaker 2: How does that give me anything useful?
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  Speaker 3: It doesn't. Now gold's different because there isn't that same
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  Speaker 3: long term trend. But I thing more useful. Give me
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  Speaker 3: a bull case and a bare case for gold. A
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  Speaker 3: bull case for gold, in my mind, at least, is
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  Speaker 3: continued deterioration of geopolitical ties between the United States and
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  Speaker 3: other major major world powers, continued deterioration of the dollar.
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  Speaker 3: Maybe puts together a bull case for gold. A bare
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  Speaker 3: case might be the opposite of that. Return to globe trade,
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  Speaker 3: returned to low barriers to trade and economic cooperation between
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  Speaker 3: between nations might not be a great base case for gold.
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  Speaker 3: And then you've got a million different derations between all there.
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  Speaker 2: Well, so here's the other thing, Like everyone's talking about
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  Speaker 2: gold now because it's done well in the last couple
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  Speaker 2: of weeks. Was was anyone you know talking about gold
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  Speaker 2: this way three months ago? Not really?
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  Speaker 3: Somebody buying ads on Bloomberg was it's fine?
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  Speaker 2: So it's again. I think part of this is also
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  Speaker 2: you end up with people. It's not my own quote,
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  Speaker 2: but it's an analyst that I thought. I think she's
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: from Money magazine. But there's a great quote that this
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  Speaker 2: this woman, Julene Meesler uses, which is, hey, there's nothing
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  Speaker 2: like price to change sentiment. Easy for everyone to get
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  Speaker 2: all buled up on gold when it's rallied the way
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  Speaker 2: that it has, it's a lot harder for people to
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  Speaker 2: talk about it during the times when it had hasn't
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  Speaker 2: done anything. And so if all all gold analysts are
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  Speaker 2: doing is responding to price change, and it's affecting how
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  Speaker 2: they're you know, saying hey, here's what we think is
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  Speaker 2: gonna happen in the future. I just don't know that
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: that's a useful signal for anyone. I can agree there
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: piece that's gonna bother a whole bunch of people. Your
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: car insurance is likely to go up again. This one
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: from the New York Times.
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  Speaker 3: An insurance rates, I mean home or auto have been
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: on the move significantly nationwide for really really since when
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  Speaker 3: did we all start driving again, Like twenty twenty one
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  Speaker 3: when they all started bumping up again, and then inflation
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: hit and on the homeowner's insurance. Obviously there's been a
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: number of natural disasters, but now we're talking about tariffs
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: and auto insurance.
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  Speaker 2: So this is according to I don't know who actually
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: put this together, but there's an estimate. Oh and Surifi
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: here you go in. Surifi estimates that the the premiums
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: on auto insurance for this year will now rise at
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: least sixteen percent, or bet three hundred and seventy eight
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: dollars per policy to almost twenty seven hundred on average nationally.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: I can tell you that having talked to a couple
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: of people recently that have re upped their auto insurance.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: I have a buddy of mine who his son has
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: a five year old Civic that he is driving, and
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: the collision alone on that. Again, granted it's you know,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: young driver in this and that, so you know, take
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: it for what it's worth. But against a five year
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: old Civic, the collision A loan on it is twenty
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: five hundred dollars a year now with a standard thousand
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: dollars deductible good times. And what you are starting to
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: see is that again this is just because insurance don't
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: want to get caught in another twenty twenty one and
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two where they lost tens of billions of
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: dollars on auto policies, the reason being they collected premiums,
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: car prices went up, repair costs went up, and then
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: they had to pay out a a ton of extra
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  Speaker 2: money because of those car prices going up. So they
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: don't want to get caught in the same situation.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, you can arrest assured that basically every insurance company
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  Speaker 3: in most states is going to the commissioner, and each
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: state is a little bit different in terms of how
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  Speaker 3: this works, but they're going to that state's insurance commissioner
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  Speaker 3: and saying, look, tariffs are coming intent we believe that
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: replacement costs are going to go up, so we are
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: looking to bump up prices for this type of driver,
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: this type of car by x percent over the course
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: of the next twelve months. And then the commissioner is
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: going to push back and they're going to meet somewhere
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: in the middle, but they're not going to wait to
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: see the prices of these things increase. I don't know
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  Speaker 3: if replacement costs have already seen that bump up in price,
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: but they're going to say, look, we're tied into these
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: prices for a year. Once we renew your policy that
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: comes up in May, we can't touch that price again
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  Speaker 3: until May of twenty twenty six, so we're not going
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: to wait until then to bump your price up. We
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: assume that costs are going to go up, We're going
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  Speaker 3: to take that increase now.
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  Speaker 2: So don't be surprised if you have, you know, renewals
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: that are coming up in the coming months. Don't be
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: surprised if you're seeing big jumps in those car insurance rates.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: And I mean at a certain point, like I look
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: at where these numbers are going, and I don't know
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: how it. I don't know how it's tenable for things
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: to go in this fashion and for the US to
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: still see the same number of auto sales given where
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: auto insurance rates are going back.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: To sedanz Sure, ah, that's what I want to see.
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 18:52
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• 18:59
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• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about kind of how how
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: retirees look at the stock market. I know that last
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen was out there talking a
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: little bit about, Hey, you know, retirees don't get nervous
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: when the market declines. And having been in the business
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: of financial advice for fifteen almost sixteen years, I don't
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: know that that's really what matches up with what I've seen.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: It's not that retirees inherently panic during market declines.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: They do care.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: They do care, and they do wonder how is it
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: going to affect my ability to do what I want to?
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, heck, we got a text last week from
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: somebody saying I was planning to retire. I don't remember
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: what the timeframe was. It was like it was this year.
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: It was like, do I need to delay that?
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: So not only do they care, but they also make
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: decisions they can textualize it based on it.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: I think it is fair to say that there are
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: a large swath of Americans that believe fundamentally that some
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: sacrifice in the stock market may be worth the conversation
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: that's being had about tariffs and jobs and all of
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: these different things. But that's a fundamentally different proposal than oh,
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: they just don't look or care about it. Like plenty
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: of people have talk to us say yeah, it's going
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: to suck for a little while, but you know what,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: I really think it's going to be better ten years
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: from now, and so I'm willing to absorb some of
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: that suck for the time being. In exchange for a
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: better working environment or unemployment situation, or you know, whatever,
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: you know, security situation, whatever you think is the end
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: goal here. And I think, honestly, we've heard some of
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: that honest assessment from the White House, but I think
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: a little bit more of it of you know, asking
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: for the American public to just hold on and and
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: deal with some economic pain to see this long term
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: thing play out might be exactly what's needed, rather than Oh,
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: people don't care about that.
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: Beneficiary planning and asset protection go hand in hand. Cushing
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: in Dolan has a new guide out this month called
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: How to Leave Assets to Beneficiaries, and it can help
• 21:19
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• 21:23
  Speaker 5: to your children isn't as simple as it sounds, especially
• 21:27
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• 21:30
  Speaker 5: or nearing a retirement, it's time to consider the best
• 21:33
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• 21:37
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• 21:41
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• 22:05
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• 22:09
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• 22:11
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for and the views expressed are
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal or investment services.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Cushing and Armstrong did not endorse each other and are
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: not affiliated.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Mike, I want to talk about this piece from the
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal because we just gave some credit to
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal for I forget what it was
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: because it was five minutes ago. When I can't recession,
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: that's the one, yep, what is a recession? I'm now
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: going to talk critically about this piece because I don't
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: think it I don't think it's right. Quite honestly. It's
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: titled Hollywood is cranking out original movies, audiences aren't showing up.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: And here here's what it says. I'm gonna quote here.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: It's talking about these two movies that just came out
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: Drop open this weekend to an estimated seven point five
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: million domestically, one of two new movies based on fresh
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: ideas that fizzled at the box office. The other was
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Disney's The Amateur, a spy thriller adapted from a little
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: known nineteen eighty one book, which opened to an estimated
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: fifteen million dollars. So here's the thing. These movies are
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: not disappointments. They're not They're not going to make one
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty seven million dollars in their opening. They're
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: also not supposed to. Michael, do you know how much
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: Drop cost to film? I have no idea eleven million dollars.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Do you know what it's brought in so far?
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: No?
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: Ten million. Now that doesn't mean it's breaking even because
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: generally the way that works with movies, whatever the production
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: cost is double that and you get distribution and everything else.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: But it's been out for one week, and basically within
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: another two or three weeks it will be profitable for
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: who actually did Universal pictures. So when you make an
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: eleven million dollar movie, you are not trying to make
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: two hundred million dollars off it. You're not trying to
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: make five hundred million dollars off it. The expectation on
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: an eleven million dollar movie is, hey, if we can
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: make thirty million in revenue from it, that's a big
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: win for us. You know, we're coming out ahead there. Likewise,
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: the other movie that they talk about here, the Amateur,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Do you know how much it costs them to make it? No,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: sixty million, It's made thirty two point two. So they've
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: got a little bit harder road to sew there in
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: terms of, yeah, there's an uphill climb, But when you
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: make a ten million dollar film, you are not going
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: to get big, crazy numbers from it, because that's not
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: how any of this works. And so I find this
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: article fundamentally not reflecting that because it's just not a
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: realistic expectation that they're gonna make that much money. Here,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: would you agree.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: With the sentiment which I think this article overall is placing,
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: which is movie theaters aren't working like they used to.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing. So I was looking at this
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: just because when you look at the story of American cinema,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: the general premise, especially through like really nineteen eighties through
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: nineteen nineties, outside of you know, recessions, you generally and
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: even during recessions. Quite honestly, you generally saw consistent year
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: over year gains in box office revenue. This continued up
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: through twenty nineteen. Actually twenty eighteen was the peak, but
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: that was just because I think twenty eighteen was Yeah,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: twenty eighteen was Avengers Infinity War, and sure, it's kind
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: of hard to top that from a revenue perspective. It
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: continued through twenty nineteen, and then the pandemic disrupted everything,
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: and we've never gotten back to those levels. In twenty eighteen,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: American Cinema did eleven point eight nine billion dollars in revenue.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: The peak that we've been since was in twenty twenty three,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: when we did eight point nine billion, and that was
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: because we had Barbenheimer that came out and you know,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: drove Americans to you know, watch Atomic Bombs and Barbie
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: back to back. Not really you know, repeatable. So I
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: do think like if you just look at what's out
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: this year in granted, like this is the January through
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: March period is kind of the doldrums, Like your your
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: top ten movies this year, minecraft movie, Okay, great, bring
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: the kids there and zone out for two hours, because
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: like that's what it is Captain America, Brave New World
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: apparently horrible. Mufasa the Lion King came out last year,
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: so not really. This year's movie something called dog Man.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: It's fine, Sonic The Hedgehog, Kirie snow White, which obviously
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: is you know, flopped, Moana two, which came out last
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: November one of them days. Don't know what that is,
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: no clue, Nasferatu, sure fine whatever, and A Complete Unknown,
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: which also came out last year.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: I think my takeaway about the movie theater industry in
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: general is I just don't know how there can be
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: any expectation that it would perform as well as the days.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: When there was no streaming.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: There was no streaming, they just, I mean forget about
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: even like the TV that we grew up with. Imagine
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: the TV that Gen xers or boomers grew up with,
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: where there are five channels that come in well in
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: your home and you flick between NBCABC, CBS and whatever
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: else was on at that time, and those were your options.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: It is a completely unrecognizable universe in the media landscape
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: today compared to that period of time, and expecting that
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: movie theaters, even if they start serving alcohol and deliver
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: food to your seat are going to continue to exist
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: at the same rate. Is just mind numbingly stupid to me.
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: I don't understand how anyone can have that expectation. But
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: beyond that, if you have a low budget movie, it's
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: not a failure when it makes money, and that's what
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: both of these movies are going to end up doing
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: when it's all said and done. So look, I've said
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: I would love for there to be more you know,
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: mid level you know, mid budget films that make it
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: out there, but you can't grade them the same way
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: that you grade you know, Mission Impossible nine, which is
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: coming out this year. I hope it's better than the
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: last one because honestly, it was a franchise on the
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: upswing for a long time, but the last one didn't
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: really deliver in my opinion. You know, Ghost Protocol and
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: uh the uh what was the other one? They were
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: up there and there was like the fifth and sixth
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: ones were fantastic. The last one, yeah, not so much.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that they stick the landing on it.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: But uh, that's just me and my uh my Mission
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: Impossible love talking.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we come back,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: we'll do a little bit of stack root lets.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: The global trade warriors in full swing. How long will
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: it last? Is Anyone's gas? Keep it here for the
• 29:00
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• 29:03
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• 29:07
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• 29:10
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• 29:13
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• 29:17
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• 29:28
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• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Mike, what you got for me for stack Roulette?
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: I want to talk bit about ride sharing and some
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: of the potential pitfalls that I've heard voice so one
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: of them. I speak regularly with somebody in the insurance
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: like homeowner's auto insurance space, and he basically voiced me like, look,
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: I never take ride sharing because I have seen so
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: many people that do ride sharing and don't actually tell
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: their insurer, meaning they are scamming their insurer and they're
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: not actually covered for damages in the event that there
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: is an accident of that vehicle, which means if you're
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: injured in it, then you got questions about how that's
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: going to work, right, Like, Yeah, you break your leg
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: in a ride share that's even fully registered with Uber,
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: but might not be insured for driving people commercially because
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: that's pretty expensive, then you know there's some question marks there.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: This piece, though, I didn't know about Facebook groups that
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: exist for the express purpose of selling or renting out
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: your ride share credentials or license. So anybody that's never
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: used Uber before, which I'm sure is a pretty small group,
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: you call your Uber you're giving a license plate. I
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: mean there's a lot of people in Uber probably Yeah,
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: a face of a driver and they pick you up
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: in that space, and there's at least some sense of
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: security there because you have that person's information on your phone.
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: You can track your location, you can share your location.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: They've implemented a number of different things to try and
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: make it safe if you are then renting out your
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: license because maybe somebody couldn't pass that same background check,
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: or because they don't have a worker's permit in the
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: United States to be able to receive this type of income. Again,
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: this is worldwide, so it's not just in the United
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: States that this stuff is happening, but represents a genuine
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: problem to the security on those platforms. And I think,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: you know, calls into question would I hesitate to use
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: this on my own No, probably not. Would I feel
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: comfortable with like a eighteen year old daughter hopping into one.
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: I think it's raising significant questions about the security of
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: some of these platforms when when this type of stuff exists.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: This is something that I'm going to say completely unironically,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: blockchain fixes this. It would if you have a secure
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: record that you show when it's been transferred to or
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: from someone and that is only you know, registered to
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: a specific device, then you know that you're getting the
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: exact person that you thought you were getting. Yeah, and
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: you can police this otherwise. Yeah, if you can just
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: log in as someone else's credentials and whatever, like no,
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: like if there's no way to be certain on this,
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: this is pretty fixable by Uber by the way, right,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: like spend more money, spend more money. Uh, you know
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: you could require multi factor authentication for somebody to log
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: into the app and like pretty quickly, you know, fix
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: this problem because you might be willing to sell your
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: login credentials, but you're probably not going to give the
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: person your phone for the day in order to let
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: them drive for Uberly.
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: Well, they require you to take a picture of your
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: face before you go online precisely.
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: But what's happening is they are then selling those credentials,
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: and so you know, some guy that looks like Tucker
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: is buying those credentials and just hoping that the person
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: won't notice.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: I want to talk to here a little bit about
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: imposter voice scams. So these are something that because of
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: generative AI, are going to be popping up more and more.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: You get a call in the spoofed caller ID. It
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: looks like it's your son, your daughter, or a cousin,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: whoever it might be, and they're telling you that they're
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: in trouble and that you need to send money. It
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: sounds just like them because you know there's you know,
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: a record of them online or whatever, and or you
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: know your your husband happens to be a radio host
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: where there's thousands of hours of recordings of my voice,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: and YadA YadA. In any case, the fact is that
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: because of how easy it is for these things to
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: propagate now and for them to pop up, you need
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: to be sure that you are actually speaking with your
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: relative or friend before doing anything. So things that you
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: generally see on these anytime that you get a call
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: from here's a good general rule of thumb. Anytime that
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: you get a call from anyone asking for money, even
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: if you want to give it to them, hang up
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: the phone, say you'll call them right back. Find their
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: actual contact number in your phone or in your phone
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: book or wherever you have it, and call them at
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: that number, because there is never anything so urgent that
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: you need to actually give them money while on that
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: call right then. True, Like even if my own family
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: called me saying like we need money right now, like
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: something bad's gonna happen, Hold on, can I call you back?
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: And then I will call you back in one minute.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Other things that I do think are good idea is
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: that this piece mentioned you gotta have some kind of
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: family codeword.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: That's terrifying, think about it, but yeah.
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: It is. It could be hippopotamus, it could be eggplant.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: It could be chicken wing, chicken wing, it could be anything.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: But have something out there that is a code word
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: so that you know that you are actually speaking to
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: your people, and don't ever write it down, don't ever
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: put it in your phone. Just know that that is
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: your family's codeword. Uh. It's something that has to be
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: easily remembered by you know, the members of your family,
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: and this and that and things along those lines. Other
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: things here. It's also something where, hey, if you're trying
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: to get in contact with the person who might not
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: be you know, the person who you think they are,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: and you can't just just wait a second like that.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: There's nothing that requires money to be sent instantly.
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: Ever, we've got to be pretty I actually don't know,
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: but I called Fidelity Investments the other day where I
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: have a personal account there, and had a question and
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: they still have this feature of your voice as your password,
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: where I was able to repeat a few phrases and
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: they were able to verify me without asking for any password.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: There better be getting rid of that.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: I would assume that they are, or that they have
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: some way of doing this, even with this voice imitation software.
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: I don't know the answer, but it sure would be
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: nice if there were an app on my phone that
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: could listen to my conversation and tell me whether or
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: not it's a AI version of someone's voice.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: Taking a look at markets off their highs now all
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: three major indencies up about a third of a percent
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: after being up more than one percent earlier in the day.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: We're done for the day. We'll see about here tomorrow
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: on the Financial Exchange.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Four