Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Dylan LeClair | Endless Printing | Simply Bitcoin IRL
Transcript
- 0:08Yo welcome to another episode of Simply Bitcoin IRL.
- 0:12Today, we have a very special guest which who have known for
- 0:15quite a bit and man has he has he reached some height.
- 0:18So very happy to have Dylan Leclair on the show before I
- 0:23want to bring up before I bring them up, I want to give a quick
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- 0:46Anyways, I want to bring Dylan on stage Dylan.
- 0:48Very happy to have you on today. How you doing, bro?
- 0:51Think I'm doing great man. Excited to catch up.
- 0:55We did meet a what was it? August 20 2010 at bit block,
- 0:59boom. So it's been a wild ride since
- 1:02and happy to get you up. Yeah man.
- 1:04That's definitely. Definitely been a a Ride to say
- 1:09the least. I'm gonna rip the Band-Aid right
- 1:12from the beginning. And this is a question that, you
- 1:15know, I was very lucky to have Lynn Jeff Booth, dr.
- 1:18Jeff, Ross on the show, the last couple of months and, you know,
- 1:23we all kind of go down this like Bitcoin Rabbit, Hole Journey,
- 1:25Dylan and you there's there's there's no end to this rabbit
- 1:28hole and you just come to these realizations every so often
- 1:30you're like holy crap like this is crazy and where I'm at in
- 1:34this current rabbit whole experience is this I'm of
- 1:37inflation. The idea that governments have
- 1:40somehow convinced the population that money has to steal from you
- 1:46in order to work. So, the question that I have for
- 1:48you Dylan Leclair is is inflation necessary for an
- 1:53economy to work. No, I don't think so.
- 1:58It's just that, you know, we've witnessed the the greatest
- 2:01technological boom and in human existence and human history
- 2:05during a mostly Keynesian economic Paradigm because of
- 2:09Banker interest, because if human incentives, because of the
- 2:12limitations of gold to scale as a medium of exchange, but in,
- 2:18in, in theory, and I believe at, you know, in practice at an
- 2:21individual level and eventually, you know, somewhat of an
- 2:24aggregate level and a Gail. We're going to see that the
- 2:28reality where if you are willingly or voluntarily
- 2:31operating on a separate system, you can you can you know, opt
- 2:35out of the kind of political pillaging that that the monetary
- 2:42system kind of forces upon you. So they're still, I mean, we're,
- 2:47you know, 50 years into this period where the government
- 2:51said. All right, we're not even going
- 2:52to pretend that we care about this gold Peg or tether.
- 2:55Anymore. And we're just going to be paper
- 2:57currencies, and we're about a few years.
- 3:00I think about three years into the period, where the inflation
- 3:04is unchecked or not unchecked. But it was, it was checked down.
- 3:07I was held down and, you know, that was propped up by the
- 3:11industrialization of the world and globalization.
- 3:15And now we've kind of reached for growth limits.
- 3:16Not, I mean, not to sound like what is it malthusian?
- 3:21But we're at a point now where the debt and the
- 3:25financialization probably reached a peak in purchasing
- 3:28power terms and 2021 and you know, their war and a bunch of
- 3:33these other things, kind of sparked, a somewhat of a
- 3:36deflation into those things of that paper wealth, and into the
- 3:40Commodities and hard money sector.
- 3:41But I think the story of the next decade, the story of our
- 3:44lifetimes is going to be the Perpetual debasement of your
- 3:47purchasing power. In any currency terms with a
- 3:51dollar probably being the best until potentially trust is lost
- 3:55in the dollar, so a long answer there, but I don't think it's
- 3:59ultimately necessary. It's just that most everybody in
- 4:01the planet hasn't like ever operated under a framework word.
- 4:06It wasn't you know the Baseline. Yeah.
- 4:08So you said something really interesting there and I want to
- 4:11focus on because usually I'll put it this way Dylan.
- 4:18We're definitely in the somewhat younger generation of big
- 4:22Corners, right? You you're a bit younger than me
- 4:26and I'm pretty young in the grand scheme of things as well.
- 4:30And the reason I'm bringing that up is because the what the
- 4:34statement that you just made holds a lot more weight for us
- 4:38because we don't have an alternative like we like Bitcoin
- 4:41for us is the way out if you're a little bit older.
- 4:45Derp. I don't want to say, it doesn't
- 4:48matter but, you know. I guess you could make the
- 4:53argument. It doesn't affect you as much.
- 4:56So, I guess my question to you Dylan is where does Bitcoin
- 5:00play? Like what's Bitcoins role for
- 5:03Our Generation? I'm specifically, I'm on the
- 5:05younger side of the millennial. Generation your Jen's e.
- 5:08So where does Bitcoin play into this?
- 5:12Yeah. I mean it plays a big role and I
- 5:14think you know in terms of wealth right?
- 5:16Like gen Z is irrelevant Millennials are you know as as
- 5:21irrelevant as any generation in history in terms of like wealth,
- 5:24purchasing power. Now that transfer is happening,
- 5:26you know, mostly through inheritance from Boomers or
- 5:30going to be from Boomers to millennial generation and some
- 5:33to Gen X as well. But, you know, I think it's,
- 5:36it's more of an ability to not be stuck in the old world.
- 5:41World. Right.
- 5:42Like I approach Bitcoin at the same time as I'm approaching
- 5:44Keynesian economic theory and like it was just obvious from
- 5:48the fundamental level like what was not more fair or Equitable
- 5:52but what I would prefer, right? Like what I wanted to do with my
- 5:54personal power, that was very obvious choice, over the long
- 5:58term. But if you've been grounded in
- 6:01some framework or line of thinking, whether it's at a you
- 6:04know, a business level or social level or even a political level
- 6:08right like there it's just ingrained into people's heads
- 6:11and And anything that operates outside of that box, doesn't
- 6:14make sense is a logical is a scam as a fraud, whatever the
- 6:18things they say about Bitcoin. But here it is, it's, you know,
- 6:21so I wasn't, I'd blocks are coming in patch rates, at
- 6:24all-time highs, right? Like the market saying
- 6:27something, Absolutely. Do you do you worry a bit?
- 6:35Do you worry about? And the reason I'm saying this
- 6:37is what I've tended. What I've tended to notice the
- 6:40pattern that have tended to notice and I kind of want to
- 6:42loop back into this concept of of Our Generations, and the
- 6:46reason I'm bringing it up is you know, you mentioned it earlier.
- 6:49Dylan, the few under the age of 35, you don't own anything so
- 6:54does it. Worry you a bit that Would have
- 6:58tended to notice, is that specifically the younger?
- 7:00You are the complete lack of interest in something like
- 7:05Bitcoin. People, people seem to seek to
- 7:08continue to seek political Solutions.
- 7:11And what I've also tended to notice also is that they blame
- 7:15capitalism for a lot of the woes of central planning, really a
- 7:19Fiat money. So what are your thoughts on
- 7:21that? I think that's that's that at
- 7:24that's dead on set. That accurate there is a certain
- 7:27political nihilism to my generation.
- 7:31I've seen it with yours as well, you know, kind of a
- 7:34left-leaning, or at the very least a polarization.
- 7:37But at the, you know, at my age gen Z like there is a very much,
- 7:44you know, ideological Cult of social pressure to like conform
- 7:49to this certain, you know, fundamental reality.
- 7:52That just somehow came out of nowhere right?
- 7:54Which is, you know, two plus two equals equals 5 and then and you
- 8:00know we can blame all these things on capitalism capitalism
- 8:03is is the greatest wealth and wealth producer.
- 8:06But not wealth producer like or wealth creation, but standard of
- 8:10living increase, like because of the capitalist Innovations and
- 8:14Ingenuity. So, you know, that's it's
- 8:17illogical, right? But I think ultimately, you
- 8:20know, economic reality and Darwin is ISM, as harsh as that
- 8:24sounds, is always going to impose itself.
- 8:26And, you know, things like these political ideas, work in theory
- 8:29and not in practice, right? America is open Capital markets
- 8:33where the global Reserve currency and when would that
- 8:36reality without being able to close your capital account, like
- 8:40China would money is going to flow to where its treated best.
- 8:45So any of these mmt Fantasyland things CBO budget just came out
- 8:49today. Said, you know, 2032 comes in To
- 8:52gdps, right? Where it's at right?
- 8:55You know, we're just we're just going to sew to fund all this
- 8:57entitlements to fund, every all of this, the spending over the
- 9:00next decade, the Green Revolution, whatever it, maybe
- 9:03right, maybe cancel this, some student debt Etc.
- 9:07It's all going to be, you know, basically monetized via the fed
- 9:11or another. Another government entities
- 9:13balance sheet. There are no structural buyers
- 9:16of the debt and so your purchase power roads away with as fast as
- 9:21a spec, it does the money. Any printer?
- 9:23So I think that's, that's the bull case for Bitcoin is just
- 9:25like it's just math. And when you say that, it sounds
- 9:28like super bold to someone that hasn't done the homework or kind
- 9:32of work through the game theory. But like, you know what,
- 9:34salesman reality of this of this debt situation that were in an
- 9:39experiment of right we're 50 years in.
- 9:41So where does the where do we go?
- 9:43And I think my answer is obviously it's debasement.
- 9:47So where do you want to put your money?
- 9:49Yeah they have no option but to print a I agree with you but
- 9:54dealing you said something very interesting right which is
- 9:56political ideas, you know, these political ideas, they work and
- 9:59they work in theory but in reality it's a different story
- 10:02but I think history has shown that.
- 10:06You can surely impose those political ideas on a populist or
- 10:11a significant amount of time and of course reality snaps back but
- 10:19it's crazy how long they can hold on, right?
- 10:21And specifically He let you know the exempt.
- 10:24Just just to mention one that to dive deep into that but Soviet
- 10:28Union, right? Yes.
- 10:30How many it's a good thing is like 70, 80 years, right?
- 10:33So I guess the reason that I'm saying this, I'm bringing this
- 10:35up is the Our Generation, the Millennials and gen Z
- 10:40generation. I think loves entitlements man.
- 10:44You know, they love that idea of entitlements.
- 10:47I think the idea of entitlements is only possible with Fiat money
- 10:50with that money printer with Spending.
- 10:52Don't you think that a lot of hostility is going to be is
- 10:58going to be at least pointed at the thing that a lot of people
- 11:04are going to perceive as responsible for those
- 11:08entitlements being taken away from them and I guess I would
- 11:10reference really the predictions in the book, The sovereign
- 11:14individual where he said just that right?
- 11:16A lot of people living in this old system in this giant you
- 11:20know, welfare Giant Straw city of a welfare state and all of a
- 11:24sudden, those entitlements that you fundamentally believe that
- 11:27you're, you know, that you that you deserve are just ripped out
- 11:31of your own hands. And I guess bitcoiners are in
- 11:33the crosshairs for that. Yeah, yeah, for sure.
- 11:37I mean that's that's, you know, not the cause but that's the
- 11:41that's the solution but the the political, you know, opposition
- 11:45to it and the Really the psyops right from a from a narrative
- 11:49perspective, propaganda will be very intense.
- 11:51I think that maybe this is a little nihilistic, a little sad,
- 11:55but it's more. So like there's there's kind of
- 11:59a return in this shift, right in this like big fourth turning
- 12:04kind of thesis. We're like technological
- 12:07advancement has brought us this far.
- 12:09And now, you know, the monetary system has brought us this far
- 12:12and there's kind of this this Line in the Sand, but it's not
- 12:14Line in the Sand. It's not like one Event Horizon.
- 12:17But really if you think, I've like what the 2020s are, I've
- 12:20already brought us and what where they're going, right?
- 12:23What are the the world economic forum's, great plans for us and
- 12:26to create a human race of basically cattle and this, you
- 12:30know, technological panopticon dystopia and it'll be more of an
- 12:34individual level about Whether you want to opt out of that
- 12:38system of global control and compliance and and, you know,
- 12:43one of the keys there on that checklist is Sovereign monetary
- 12:48or Sovereign economic autonomy. So, so if you don't have that,
- 12:51then you have nothing, you can't.
- 12:53You know, if you could if you can go anywhere in the world
- 12:55with your money and your head in theory, that's pretty powerful
- 12:59in a world that's you know, increasingly polarizing and
- 13:02bifurcating and you know who knows where you are.
- 13:05Your political situation is there and so it's all relative
- 13:10game and I think having that flexibility and freedom for
- 13:13someone that's that's, you know, young for someone in their 20s,
- 13:16never mind that regardless of your age, you know, if you if
- 13:20you want that economic sovereignty in the digital age
- 13:24is probably not really many other places to look for that
- 13:27list of economic empowerment. Nothing else is as important as
- 13:31money. Ultimately, as a tool, in my
- 13:33opinion, I guess food. Sheltered the basics.
- 13:36But yeah. So so Bitcoin is right in the
- 13:40middle of this whole thing but it'll be at an individual level.
- 13:43Maybe a you could say of corporate level, some Will
- 13:45Survive, but not everyone is going to, you know,
- 13:47quote-unquote, make it. And that's somewhat of like a
- 13:50harsh reality of this of this transition.
- 13:54The goal is to get as many people, you know, if we're right
- 13:57here like everybody, we want Bitcoin in everyone's hands but
- 14:01it's, you know, up to the individual to do that, that's
- 14:05not on. On us.
- 14:06Why don't you? Yeah, I wish I could so Dylan,
- 14:13the last couple of really it's been the last couple of months
- 14:16if you've been paying attention but the how do I put this the
- 14:23just I guess I'll put it bluntly the hostility by v b
- 14:28Administration towards the industry.
- 14:30I think they were waiting for an excuse They're waiting for an
- 14:36excuse to, you know, and with that excuse they denied Caitlin
- 14:41loans Bank custodia bank from getting a Federal Banking
- 14:44Charter and then right as of right now there, you know, their
- 14:48next Target is stable coins, right?
- 14:50We know that they made an example of Kraken 30 million
- 14:53dollar fine with the staking, maybe it's because we're slaves
- 14:59to the new Cycles at simply Bitcoin.
- 15:00We have to cover the news every single day, but it just
- 15:04definitely does look Look targeted sophisticated, and
- 15:08there's this very excellent piece that laid it out by Nick.
- 15:11Carter called operation chokepoint 2.0 and he really
- 15:14laid it out. He really made the case with all
- 15:17the examples, not to mention the Senator Elizabeth Warren and
- 15:20Senator Marshall, Bill that would require Bitcoin developers
- 15:24in the United States are registered with the federal
- 15:25government to develop for like, absolutely Bonkers that you can
- 15:28see this in America. But clearly there is a, there's
- 15:30an agenda there. So, what are your thoughts on
- 15:33all of this? And I think it could tie in with
- 15:35What you were saying not too long ago.
- 15:38Yeah. I mean I think definitely that
- 15:41took Point comparison is valid. I think also we should we should
- 15:45be realistic and recognize and I simply Bitcoin has definitely
- 15:50been one of the media arms covering this that has
- 15:54recognized it. There's a whole boatload of
- 15:56Fraud and, you know, all sorts of shenanigans with crypto
- 16:00companies and, you know, the ponzi's and everything else that
- 16:04touched hands with the US. As banking system that touched
- 16:07hands with Silver Gate signature FTX, you know, these stable.
- 16:11But there's always a hot pile of money, you know, of course, you
- 16:13know, billions of dollars of Leverage, you know, you know,
- 16:16between counterparties and everything else.
- 16:18And there was a lot of fraud, kind of in that whole basket or
- 16:22bubble, right? So so the response is one that I
- 16:25would fully expect from US banking system and that's to
- 16:29ramp it up to the point where, you know, only the Sterling
- 16:32companies are or you know, like just for Fred the finance be USD
- 16:37coin from paxos, right? Finance was doing sensor
- 16:41Shenanigans with a peg of that of that etherium based a coin
- 16:45and creating their own by net, smart chain base table coin, but
- 16:48they didn't back it up and we'll all the time.
- 16:50And they were, you know, counting at the same on their
- 16:52platform. So the New York Financial
- 16:54Service, I forget the exact name, NY DFS came in, said back
- 16:59to us know, you're done. You know, you can only redeem.
- 17:01Now you can order to create stable coins and you guys got a
- 17:04year to basically get out of that.
- 17:05That. So yeah, it's coming.
- 17:07I think it's not the end of the world.
- 17:09It's, you know, certainly u.s. Capital markets, the most
- 17:12important but Bitcoin just going to Route Around, it's going to
- 17:15do its thing. It's a global phenomenon.
- 17:17And and, you know, I think it'll make another all-time high at
- 17:21some point and I really don't care what that timeline is to
- 17:25get there. I don't say, expect some shop
- 17:27for a little bit while we kind of chop through this macro
- 17:31situation. But, you know, that the US has
- 17:34an open Capital markets. All right, so so they can't stop
- 17:38all capital from coming. This thing, it's essentially
- 17:41just a Global Currency pair, so there will be liquidy and that
- 17:44will probably be eventually they're going to attempt to
- 17:47consolidate that between the incumbents right bny Mellon and
- 17:50JP Morgan and her maybe not JPMorgan, but the incumbent is
- 17:54right? And then the legacy is just in
- 17:56the Legacy system serving as those rails and not as you know
- 18:00and not for coinbase or whoever else is is really doing a lot of
- 18:04volume with the Legacy system. Mmm, I think that's what they're
- 18:06really trying to get to get a hold of.
- 18:10So interesting. So you don't you don't think
- 18:13it's necessarily an attempt to slow down the adoption of
- 18:17Bitcoin. You think it's a legitimate
- 18:19government response at the Fallout from the ft x debacle.
- 18:24Yeah I mean and not to give the government any said legitimacy I
- 18:28think there's quite a lot of reasons to point that they are
- 18:30completely illiterate the illegitimate but aside Point
- 18:34like you know that's a system where operating under and you
- 18:37know you can't just go create Around back, right?
- 18:40Like that's there is a there is a cartel of sorts, a regulatory
- 18:45cartel globally with the u.s. kind of operating as that had
- 18:49point. So, you know, they're going to
- 18:52try to starve the Beast a bit but you can't write Bitcoins a
- 18:5510, you know, 10 million 100 million headed Hydra this point.
- 19:01And so you know the cats out of the bag, it's just a matter of
- 19:04you know, that it's been in the end, they fight you stage for a
- 19:06little bit. I just you know Bitcoin just
- 19:08keeps going back, stronger and stronger.
- 19:10Sure. And they're like, oh shit, you
- 19:11know, but they can't kill it. So I'm really not all that
- 19:14worried, to be honest, maybe that's a little bit naive
- 19:19though. No.
- 19:22You know, up the joke about this all the time we say, we're just
- 19:26going to have to move till Salvador.
- 19:28Would you be willing to move to El Salvador Dylan Leclair if
- 19:31things really did get hairy, you know, I would probably be
- 19:36willing to move anywhere depending on how you define bad
- 19:40but gonna probably stay in the West for a little bit.
- 19:44And then maybe, you know, who knows?
- 19:45I'll settle down a few different places which El Salvador, maybe
- 19:48he's one. I have this infatuation somewhat
- 19:51with the kind. Playing out the sovereign
- 19:54individual digital Nomad thesis for a little bit over the coming
- 19:58years. I mean that's the plan for my
- 19:59next year essentially and so we'll see where it goes but now
- 20:03Salvador is definitely, you know, it's looking good.
- 20:08Yeah, I tried it for a bit, it's fun, but it does kind of feel
- 20:13like your home is a bag. So, I guess that's cool.
- 20:18Definitely cheap though. That's the good.
- 20:20That's, I guess the, the pros for it.
- 20:24Anyways, Dylan, don't you think that this, you know, potentially
- 20:30is forcing Bitcoin businesses overseas?
- 20:33And I think that was one of the main talking points that I've
- 20:37heard against this, this onslaught of Regulation.
- 20:44Yeah, I mean, potentially right. Like it's certainly making a lot
- 20:48more challenging for the even though the legitimate actors
- 20:51here and it slows things down. I don't think it's an argument
- 20:55there but like, you know, there's a, there's a reason for
- 20:59the the scrutiny, right? It's like the largest players in
- 21:02this industry were all, you know, in some ways.
- 21:05Fraudulent lied. There was a huge daisy chain and
- 21:09now, you know, like, like even not to not to go down this
- 21:12Rabbit Hole to this time but like, there's legitimately
- 21:14massive question marks regarding the world's biggest Bitcoin
- 21:17could go play right now which is financed, right?
- 21:19And they're like basically not allowed to operate in the US the
- 21:21kind of Shadow operating in the US was by Nance us.
- 21:24But like they and essentially right there like seven, fifty
- 21:28sixty percent of all crypto trading volume right now and
- 21:31kind of liquidity, right? So and that's just a massive.
- 21:34It's a massive black box so I'm not like throwing shade at
- 21:37Finance. It's just the reality that like,
- 21:39it's way more nascent than I would have thought.
- 21:43Even in 2023, which is super great because that means it's
- 21:47cheap, and it still has massive potential and it's going, it's
- 21:50barely just a teenager, but we, Recognize like it's barely just
- 21:54a teenager. A lot of people don't really
- 21:57understand this thing at all and you know, someone operates fraud
- 22:03via, you know, the Bitcoin or whatever crypto, right.
- 22:06And it's like someone in nineteen eighty or ninety
- 22:08saying, like, you know, the internet enables fraud and
- 22:10scamming it's like, yeah, of course it does.
- 22:13It's just, you know, it's not the internet's fault, it's not
- 22:16the protocol assault. So that's just an education
- 22:19process. And then, you know, we're both
- 22:21blessed with plenty of time to just kind of watch the Cards
- 22:24cards fall. Absolutely let's see, let's see
- 22:29where this rollercoaster ride takes us.
- 22:30So you mentioned by Nance. Now I think Finance is very
- 22:34interesting because don't they have the BNB token, aren't they
- 22:39just issuing their own money? Like isn't that very similar to
- 22:42whatever the exit and then not to mention we don't know.
- 22:45Like they've been you know it's been very hard Finance hasn't
- 22:49showed their book their books and say last raise the money.
- 22:51I think the last time there is money was like in Right.
- 22:54So how would we know? We don't know and they do have a
- 22:58token, they're not you know, in theory, they could change the
- 23:01date. I mean they are operating, the
- 23:02validators are like they could change the monetary policy in
- 23:05theory and practice, they have, you know, 60 to 70, estimated
- 23:08percent of all tokens of this, you know, fifty billion dollar
- 23:11asset that they, you know, that definitely had an incentive to
- 23:15pump. And it's, you know, kind of
- 23:16wildly, uh, performed everything even Bitcoin to the downside,
- 23:20which doesn't never happens. So there's questions and That
- 23:23you know, really brought them up and people have said it's fight
- 23:26or I'm delusional or whatever. And I'm just saying like hey
- 23:28guys like you know, this thing's had a fifty billion dollar
- 23:31market cap with only it only trades in one place and their
- 23:35assets and liabilities are a black book because they don't
- 23:39have to show you them and they're saying, hey here's a
- 23:41proof of assets report and I'm like assets, don't matter at
- 23:45all. And it's really not enough to
- 23:48say like I trust your word for it.
- 23:49So I'm not saying like sees you as an agenda is bad or whatever.
- 23:52I'm just saying like There's obviously periods where they're
- 23:55proof of Reserve wallets have changed switch them up.
- 23:58They've they've commingled corporate funds and Recovery
- 24:01funds and customer funds and admitted to it.
- 24:05You know, they said here's a billion and be USD for Industry
- 24:07Recovery and we're like hey you sent that from the customers
- 24:10wallets like a day ago and their response essentially a blog post
- 24:14was like oh no like our security our internal exchange security
- 24:18so good that we use corporate funds for in the same wallet.
- 24:21That was the response. Like the pr They did tweeted
- 24:24this out and I raise that up. If you were like Fudd, fun, fun
- 24:27fun. And I'm like, guys, like, okay,
- 24:30it's fun. The like, I don't have an
- 24:33agenda, like, I'm just like saying, like it's just, you
- 24:36know, take control of what you own is something, bad happens.
- 24:40It's all entire than yourself, like, you signed up for this and
- 24:45you were trusting. Someone that yeah, doesn't.
- 24:47Whoo. How you going to enforce
- 24:48responsibility? If something bad happens?
- 24:51Not your keys and your coins. Apply.
- 24:53Stephen, you know, Nico like you're my friend, I trust you,
- 24:56man. But like you're like, hey I'll
- 24:58hold this pick one for you. Don't worry, I got it.
- 25:01I'm like, yeah, maybe I trust you but eventually if I don't
- 25:04and you scan me then, you know, I got scammed like, I his my
- 25:08fault, and I think just there's been a lot of hard lessons but
- 25:12like, you know, not unfortunately, like I just hope
- 25:16there's not more hard lessons to come.
- 25:18And I think at some point there will be and not saying it's
- 25:20with, you know, the biggest elephant in the room or not, I'm
- 25:23just Saying like that we've seen this stuff, repeat through the
- 25:25history of Bitcoin, there's this ongoing process and I you know,
- 25:29unfortunately we regretfully say that the next Bull Run.
- 25:32We will see, you know, 10x to Shenanigans.
- 25:35We see, we saw this past bull market in terms of people losing
- 25:38funds scams, you know, phishing scams kyc all this, all this
- 25:43crazy stuff. So maybe that's pessimistic as
- 25:47well. But I think you were just going
- 25:49to we're going to go through another cycle.
- 25:50It's going to be 10x crazier. It's going to be 10x.
- 25:53The the amount of Fraud and that's you know a blessing in
- 25:58the curse of this decentralized, you know, internet money
- 26:03monetizing from scratch. It's just it's very darwinistic.
- 26:08Yeah, did I completely agree? I think you know the was the
- 26:12first one Mount gox. Right?
- 26:14And then it just progressively. Just got bigger and bigger last
- 26:18blow up, you literally have Tom Brady and mr.
- 26:21Wonderful involved and they were spokesman for you know the the
- 26:26the FTX organization. So yeah and I agree maybe
- 26:30perhaps. Next time a nation state will be
- 26:32involved, you know it. I know it Ponzi like It sounds
- 26:38ludicrous. But if I told you what happened,
- 26:41this Earth, this past year that with FTX stuff, if I told you
- 26:44about the penthouse and the Bahamas and all that stuff and I
- 26:47told you about that five years ago, you would have laughed me
- 26:49out of the room. So yeah it's it's definitely
- 26:53definitely Wild West for sure. So I want to focus on something
- 26:56that you were mentioning earlier and I think that's a very
- 26:58interesting topic and that's something that I've heard from
- 27:01people and I would say it's more so of a disillusionment and when
- 27:06I'm talking about Dylan is The fact that bind the B&B token has
- 27:11outperformed Bitcoin like even even aetherium that wasn't the
- 27:15case etherium still hasn't made an all-time high in Bitcoin, but
- 27:18if you're looking at the by Nance token, it has performed.
- 27:22It has outperformed Bitcoin which is extremely rare.
- 27:24Like you said, is that due to manipulation and of course,
- 27:29we're all speculating here. There's absolutely no way to do
- 27:31know this because it's all, you know, it's all the behind the
- 27:35behind the scenes, but what's your take on that?
- 27:37What's going on there and your opinion.
- 27:40My take on it is that there was an obvious incentive in 2021
- 27:46with the Bitcoin. Broadly crypto, you know, pumped
- 27:49where we saw three trillion dollars of my have imaginary
- 27:52wealth creation of probably just you know in aggregate.
- 27:55Let's say 100 maybe 200 billion dollars of capital inflow.
- 28:00That's 200 billion could be really generous maybe 100
- 28:03billion total, maybe less than that.
- 28:05Could be 50 billion and raw us cash coming in.
- 28:08To this crypto ecosystem, where it, you know, got levered up,
- 28:12you know, with the D5 stuff I got levered up as phosphate
- 28:15funds tried, you know, cash-and-carry GPT, see starting
- 28:19at you know 9 K 10 K buying up 100,000 150,000 Bitcoin.
- 28:23Sailor punting his corporate not punting but like you know just
- 28:27all in this corporate treasury buys another 100,000 Bitcoin
- 28:31relatively Supply, an elastic, its source, Bitcoin goes to the
- 28:34moon and and you know the The theory Vault season, right?
- 28:39Is this pair, whatever it this trading pair of you know,
- 28:43altcoin BDC and whatever this altcoin is worth and there's
- 28:47really a lot of these things are injured intrinsically doesn't
- 28:49matter if they have value like the the mean coins are literally
- 28:52just a nihilistic Financial form of gambling that's you know Less
- 28:56Than Zero Sum because the exchange for takes their fees.
- 29:00But given this flying elasticity of these things and the
- 29:03volatility you know there's there's it's so illiquid right
- 29:06the bit asks are crazy. Wide.
- 29:08So little bit of money on either side just moons the thing,
- 29:11right? And so all coin out performance
- 29:13is a big narrative but in particular if you look like the
- 29:15biggest, the best performers during this kind of height
- 29:18phase, it was like exchange tokens, right?
- 29:20You saw Celsius, go Bonkers, you saw ft x KO F TT, go bonkers the
- 29:25same time you know, by Nance, you know, trailed ftts a
- 29:29performance by a couple weeks I might have that flipped it might
- 29:32be financed went first and FTX started going insane but they
- 29:35all perform Bitcoin like crazy and The other smaller market
- 29:38caps for sure. We less capital inflow but but
- 29:41people only look at the percent returns and you know, they'll
- 29:46all of those things crash the correlation and and you know
- 29:50illiquidity traded both ways you know as volatile asset to the
- 29:54upside more volatile than big ones, the downside as well.
- 29:57And B&B was like kind of this weird Financial anomaly where as
- 30:00you know 200 300 Vol asset in a bull market and a bear Market
- 30:06where Bitcoin is you know no, after its kind of all settled
- 30:09down Bitcoins a it's called it a 80 Vol asset.
- 30:16B & B is just around the same. It's a little higher but not
- 30:19double, not triple, like it wasn't a bull market in like
- 30:21those things. Make me scratch my head.
- 30:23I can't I can't, you know, know anything there.
- 30:26But ask yourself what the incentive is to pump your thing
- 30:30that you won't 70 billion of. And the thing is, the thing that
- 30:32makes me fishy. It's like, you know, a smart
- 30:35Capital allocator, if they created Created money, created
- 30:38an asset from nothing and it within five years, For years,
- 30:43the thing was worth. Total market cap, 100 billion
- 30:46and you had 50 of that and, you know, you can unload that 50%
- 30:51into the market but it would in theory makes sense to like take
- 30:55some chips off the table. If you were an unbiased capital
- 30:57allocator and the fact that they're like, oh we've never
- 31:00sold any and we don't leverage against it's like, okay then
- 31:03what is the point of holding it? There is no point.
- 31:06So so if you're never going to sell it because you don't want
- 31:08it, that to impact the market of the down side where there's no
- 31:10real natural buyers, right? You're the primary Maker.
- 31:13You're the primary liquidity. That's your all the liquidity
- 31:16financed platform. You're not, you can't really
- 31:19sell any. So the thing that I would worry
- 31:22about in the reason FTX went down was because they were
- 31:26borrowed a collateralized against the solvency of the, the
- 31:29aggregate system, their collateralized against Iran, the
- 31:31fiend token. So I haven't I couldn't prove
- 31:33the finance. It's doing that.
- 31:35Do I think that's it's you know, majority chance they are.
- 31:38I don't, I mean I hope not. But certainly the a performance
- 31:42is Is, is noteworthy and not really know where the integrate
- 31:45way. It's not worthy and like, a very
- 31:46suspect way, my opinion. So I'm going to be wrong there.
- 31:48Of course, I'm not accusing them of anything, but I would
- 31:52encourage people to be more skeptical of the world in
- 31:55general. These are not outrageous things
- 31:57to ask your post forward. It's not fun.
- 32:00It's like basic due diligence. So, yeah, that's my thoughts on
- 32:04that. Interesting.
- 32:07Yeah, and I agree that it is kind of.
- 32:09It is kind of like this, this weird, Only right?
- 32:13It is strange and then right? What's that?
- 32:15It is a very famous. Saying, rise.
- 32:16If you don't understand, like, just look at the incentives.
- 32:20And yeah, totally incentivize to to manipulate it to his benefit
- 32:25and I think you pointed out the lack of liquidity is interesting
- 32:29if you want to sell a lot, anyways, for get carried away.
- 32:34So doing I think a lot of people last bull market or let down.
- 32:40I think a lot of people were anticipating 100K Bitcoin,
- 32:44minimum I come from the school of thought, that it's
- 32:50interesting how the CCP band Bitcoin mining, right at the
- 32:53perfect time in the Bitcoin bull market.
- 32:56And that, you know, shortly after we had a massive price
- 32:58crash songs with the hash rate. So we're you one of those people
- 33:04and you know I could say I was definitely on a personal level.
- 33:07Were you one of those people that were expecting 100K Bitcoin
- 33:11the lat? Bull market and Y, then we hit
- 33:15that it, we're people overly bullish, there's this Theory,
- 33:18also diminishing returns just kind of, makes sense, right?
- 33:21It's a lot harder for Bitcoin to get from 50k to 100K than it was
- 33:25for it to get from a dollar to two dollars, right?
- 33:27So what are your thoughts on this?
- 33:29And a lot of people see, it Dylan is the opportunity are
- 33:33people late to bitcoin. No, I don't.
- 33:37People are late and answer question.
- 33:39I was at the time I was Pretty pretty bullish on the price
- 33:44action, kind of an in the spring.
- 33:47Obviously I was you know at over 100 percent of my net worth and
- 33:51Bitcoin by the summer of 2020. Kind of acquiring really any
- 33:54leverage. I could irresponsible but as a
- 33:5719-0 as a 19 year old kid like transparently I was I was doing
- 34:00that pumped like crazy retrace, with the China stuff still, you
- 34:05know, fall asleep. Long got got some call option
- 34:09exposure and a bunch of other mining plays in the summer. 21
- 34:14and read those rather is pretty high and then fully round trip.
- 34:18Like I have a hot or stack, I don't touch it.
- 34:20I'm constantly adding to it IDC. A given my job as a market
- 34:24analyst and someone looking at data and markets in hours a day
- 34:27like I also have something like a portfolio book where our
- 34:32actively manage it a little bit more.
- 34:34So you know, I buy some Equity sometimes I short, equities,
- 34:36bonds options, all these other things, and I don't like to
- 34:40given the size of my like, audience now that I kind of Just
- 34:42stumbled into. I don't like to like transparent
- 34:44not transparently to my book, but I don't like the, you know,
- 34:48post my book all the time. I might look meaning like you
- 34:50know, whether I'm buying this or selling that, oh, occasionally,
- 34:53but I won't have to disclose it because I don't think, I don't
- 34:56want to influence my followers to do this for that.
- 34:58Other than, like, say for yourself a long term, I think
- 35:01it's a pretty reasonable position to kind of put forward,
- 35:05but no, I didn't, I didn't sell the top.
- 35:07I wish I wish I did. You know, in hindsight is always
- 35:0920/20 but, you know, since I think, First quarter of 2021 by
- 35:142022. Rather I'm sorry when it's
- 35:16pretty clear that the kind of the credit system, the economic
- 35:20tide was turning a little bit. You know that the didn't make
- 35:23the foot perfect Edna 2021 of November.
- 35:26But once it was clear that okay the bond markets has to sell off
- 35:30here because inflation's you know six seven hundred basis
- 35:34points over you know all durations of the yields you know
- 35:39we're in for some pain and kind of liquidity suck.
- 35:42And I think we're still in that I like I still think a recession
- 35:45is coming. The economy is surprisingly
- 35:47resilient and nominal terms, but I do think we're headed for
- 35:50somewhat of a kind of the debt that unwind.
- 35:53But right we just saw massive wealth destruction in 2022 from
- 35:57all time bubble, everything bubble highs and you just look
- 36:00at like what the wealth effect does to a real economy on a lag.
- 36:04And there's, you know, there's certainly some contraction
- 36:07coming in my opinion and so, so Bitcoins going to do extremely
- 36:10well over the long term but like the Only reason I pay attention
- 36:13to any of this economic data and cycles and everything else are
- 36:16at post. The FED funds rate Futures, like
- 36:18why that's the fascinates me is because, you know, we're always
- 36:21focused hyper focused on the numerator BTC, which is, which
- 36:24is the important thing here. But from an exchange rate
- 36:26perspective, there's going to be times and asymmetric times at
- 36:28that, for the USD component of all, this is going to be the
- 36:32driving force. It's going to be the reason
- 36:33Bitcoin takes up ticks down and we've often see we saw that on a
- 36:37lot of 2022, right? So I mean today, Bitcoins up
- 36:40eight 10 percent equity. He's our, you know, mildly
- 36:43green, that's pretty encouraging to see and it shows someone of
- 36:46like a supply-demand mismatch at least locally, you know, maybe
- 36:51like sellers in aggregate are exhausted after getting
- 36:54absolutely pummeled over the last year but Bitcoin has ever
- 36:58since Global asset, right? As it's monetizing on when
- 37:01everyone's balance sheet around the world bitcoiners should
- 37:04recognize and I think even honestly be encouraged by the
- 37:07fact that Bitcoin is trading with global liquidity as the
- 37:11dollar strengthens. You know, and and on an
- 37:14aggregate, everybody short dollars in this financials, this
- 37:17current monetary system. And so as if for some reason the
- 37:20dollars, right, like just this basic math, like denominator USD
- 37:24is increasing the numerator. BTC is just all else being
- 37:27equal, right? And Bitcoin exchange rate drops
- 37:30a little bit. Like I think that's a natural
- 37:32and I think that's a good thing and it shows Bitcoins maturing
- 37:34and that you know there's gonna be a lot more liquidity that can
- 37:36flood into this thing as a monetary asset.
- 37:39But people were, you know, monetize bonds.
- 37:41People might ask equities He's right.
- 37:43And then, as now, bonds are sold off and equities are more
- 37:46expensive relative to bonds than ever, right?
- 37:50So people are still have a psych monetary premium for equities as
- 37:52like the store value. But now that's a right here.
- 37:55Like the interesting thing is that sand P has like an earnings
- 37:58yield right now this year, five percent but you can also get
- 38:01that risk-free risk-free as in you know the government is going
- 38:06to pay you by printing press or by force via taxation but that
- 38:10that's short-term steps plan. 5% to So stocks are now in this
- 38:13weird place where like they're down 20% from the highs but
- 38:17they're more overvalued relatively than they've been in
- 38:20decades. So like this whole kind of
- 38:23unwind I think has yet to play out in full.
- 38:26I think Bitcoin you know if there is some massive risk off
- 38:29Rally or risk-off downturn Bitcoins not going to be
- 38:32insulated, I think that's natural but could the bottom be?
- 38:36And of course you know 50 16k 15K like half the industry went
- 38:40bankrupt, right? Right.
- 38:41Like I didn't show up all my Chips in the middle at 16th and
- 38:43I'm totally fine with that. I got it back, right.
- 38:46So I think everyone's really focused on like this, the
- 38:49bottom. And, you know, like and that's
- 38:50fair, right? Like I would have loved to it,
- 38:53call it to the T, but I also think that, you know, we should
- 38:56be prepared for anything and if Bitcoin wix2 10K because, you
- 39:00know, the financial system blows up tomorrow.
- 39:02Like, that shouldn't change your position.
- 39:04All right. So like just having that ability
- 39:06to tolerate volatility to the upside and downside is it's
- 39:09something that you should have. If you have a long-term Outlook,
- 39:13Absolutely Dylan. One of the things that you
- 39:16mentioned, and I kind of want to double back on that, right?
- 39:20Which is in your mentioning, you said that there could be a
- 39:23potential contraction in 2023 and this is actually a similar
- 39:27question. I see dr.
- 39:28Jeff Ross and the chat I asked him this when he came on the on
- 39:31the pot a couple weeks ago. And you know what the way that
- 39:35I'm seeing it is rightly the what the, you know, the central
- 39:39Bankers have been telling us over the last couple months,
- 39:41right? Just it's going to be a soft
- 39:43Landing. Everything's going to be okay.
- 39:44But so far right you have the employment numbers.
- 39:47They were pretty solid they're pretty good.
- 39:50So I mean were they able to pull this off?
- 39:53Were they able to print this ungodly amount of money with
- 39:57absolutely no consequence or do you believe this is the Calm
- 40:00before the storm? And the reason I'm saying that
- 40:03is because I saw a tweet that you posted two images and it was
- 40:07fascinating, was like, yeah, the US economy is fine.
- 40:10Everything is going to be happening.
- 40:11You At the date since 2007. So of course, you know, we're
- 40:15not fortune tellers, we can't read into the future, but what
- 40:19does your gut tell you till in the Claire?
- 40:22Yeah, my gut tells me and I'm prepared for really any outcome,
- 40:26but I got tells me that we got some, we got some ugliness to
- 40:31turn through. I you know it's like the
- 40:34conversation has gone from our Landing to soft Landing to like
- 40:37no Landing no recession and I think and I am not not held
- 40:44accountable but, you know, put me in this Camp as well as
- 40:46thinking the downturn as theirs as a result of this kind of re
- 40:50ratchet higher. Interest rates and then you know
- 40:53the duration value of all these assets, right?
- 40:55When money was free on the cost of capital in real terms was -
- 40:59the value of everything else was in theory infinite it just
- 41:01didn't compute. So we have this Global
- 41:03everything bubble interest rates in the market, essentially
- 41:07forced the FED to tighten a short-term interest rates, kind
- 41:10of, you know, went to the moon because of this inflation.
- 41:14Right. And here we are and I think this
- 41:18isn't, you know, Max Payne. I mean for Bitcoin or Krypto or
- 41:21your favorite, you know, social media app, ticker, right Ike.
- 41:27The bottom could, you know, Wick, it could be very well in,
- 41:31but I think people should just look too.
- 41:33Similar analogy is whether it's 2,000, you know, 2008, whether
- 41:38it's the 2000 Tech, boom, Tech bust, whether it's the 70s
- 41:41inflation, right? And you should look at hike
- 41:43interest rates Cycles. You should look at SP and you
- 41:46can and you should like look at how long these things
- 41:49potentially take to play out. As well as like you know the
- 41:52kind of the crazy relative rallies from from the local
- 41:56bottoms that assets have right? That's indy500.
- 42:00Didn't-didn't bottom for 24 to 36.
- 42:03I think it was 30 months after the top and tech stocks and the
- 42:07S&P 500 would have 50 percent right?
- 42:09So it's the tech. Boom and wasn't even known as a
- 42:11real. Real bad reception and that some
- 42:13people hundred still fell 50 percent, right.
- 42:15So like I think it's just whether it's Bitcoin or not like
- 42:19you know Bitcoin went down, 80 75 percent.
- 42:21Right. Like certainly painful but I
- 42:23think yeah, mentally you should prepare for for, you know, a
- 42:27good amount of chop. I think we got some some real
- 42:30pain essentially and that in that the global economy to come
- 42:34and and the US will be at the relatively the best in the best
- 42:38position. Our Capital markets will be the
- 42:41best potentially and the dollars going to be relatively great
- 42:44place to be compared to all these other developed market and
- 42:48Emerging Market currencies. But the dollar will still be
- 42:51devaluing in real purchasing power terms and I think you know
- 42:56monetary repression Financial repression, you know, inflation
- 43:00above interest rates, even if it's 6% inflation and 5% or
- 43:06maybe they even, you know, get that CPI annual number down to
- 43:1034 percent. While their short-term rates are
- 43:12at 55 and a half, maybe I'd happens for a little bit but on
- 43:16a long enough time frame, they can't do that with that.
- 43:18The GDP at 100 120 percent. You can't you Have to get the
- 43:22real debt burdens down the CBO just came out today.
- 43:25Projecting you know that you to GDP 10 years from now to be at
- 43:29the same level right? So they're not even really
- 43:31projecting any grounds made up there just going to tack on
- 43:34another 10 trillion a debt right just create more money injected
- 43:38in the banking system and I think we're going to see that
- 43:42that that theory doesn't really work.
- 43:44Well it's not going to be it's not gonna be a flat linear line,
- 43:48right? Of productivity and debt like
- 43:51there. Kind of projecting on these
- 43:52models and the reality of this debt, overhang and Global debt
- 43:56levels and all demographics is going to kind of lead to some
- 44:01really nasty. I'm lines, like, we've already
- 44:03seen economic Cycles. Kind of, like, we did, we jacked
- 44:07the money full of the, the world economy, full of funny money, we
- 44:09didn't really even make it 18 months without that, that that
- 44:13kind of real economic activity turning over, right?
- 44:17Like, we still have a really hot economy and inflation terms.
- 44:21In nominal terms, but adjust that for inflation, we're not
- 44:24growing. This isn't growth, right?
- 44:25It's just it's you know, apathetic lethargic and we have
- 44:29an aging population of Boomers that are about to end.
- 44:31You know, all go into retirement and sit back on there, you know,
- 44:35on their yacht and their second home.
- 44:37While the Millennials don't own anything, right?
- 44:39So like there's really interesting Dynamic at play
- 44:41here. It's going to it's going to take
- 44:43a while but I think that whether I don't think a recession, a
- 44:47strong one is in the cards for 2023.
- 44:49I think that's honestly a story. That could could go into 2024
- 44:54and you know like like hold you hold Bitcoin.
- 44:57Have some stuff that it doesn't matter what the next 18, 24
- 45:00months of price action have, but like I feel very comfortable,
- 45:04having a whole large chunk of Bitcoin and a good chunk of
- 45:07dollars ready to buy Bitcoin or anything else and he's like, I
- 45:11think it's not it's not a kind of linear device debasement and
- 45:15that some points you have periods where the dollars
- 45:17actually you know Increase in purchasing power, in an
- 45:22asymmetric way, relative everything else, right?
- 45:24As a function of these delivery things as a function of a credit
- 45:26system, kind of unwinding. So that's kind of why I have a
- 45:30little both try to, you know, balance that those two.
- 45:34So, I want to pull up this this image because I think it's a
- 45:37good visual representation of the situation that you were
- 45:41explaining and and I think Lynn put it perfectly right?
- 45:46The US Treasury Department, actually published this and for
- 45:49all Listeners. Right.
- 45:50It has historical and projected and then it has a metric that
- 45:53says debt held by public. And it just it, dude, it's
- 45:57absolutely crazy, dude. So this is what you're talking
- 45:59about, right? Yeah.
- 46:00And that's that's basically mmt visualize that.
- 46:05I mean, that's that's a not a free market.
- 46:08That is the nationalization of everything and the sense
- 46:13essentially, the implementation of communist.
- 46:16I mean, because okay, if you think about what seven hundred
- 46:18percent, Debt to GDP is right. Like that means that for, you
- 46:23know, the populace creates 10 trillion, dollars of
- 46:28productivity. And there's seven seventy
- 46:31trillion dollars of debt to be paid off to the government
- 46:34itself, right? So so what is it?
- 46:36It's like an indentured servitude by your own
- 46:40governmental body, right? For the collective like like
- 46:45what is that Finance they financially that's like
- 46:48literally then implementation of top-down communism.
- 46:52That sounds like super super dark and maybe a little bit
- 46:54hyperbolic but like I think my my my response to that chart is
- 47:00that the US has opened Capital markets at least for now, right?
- 47:04Unless there's some drastic change and that the money is
- 47:06going to flow worth. Reinvest the guy.
- 47:08You should, you should pull up. If you think about Bitcoin Versa
- 47:11dollar ticker or really anything like everything is relative
- 47:14hair, you should pull up a chart of the the US dollar relative
- 47:18the Arjun Arjun time pay. So it's usda-ars I believe.
- 47:27And and look at the daily weekly monthly candles of this thing
- 47:30and it's actually crazy to visualize just this, this
- 47:34unbelievable debasement and I don't know if you can pull it up
- 47:37now or you have that prepared but it is it is just quite a
- 47:42amazing charcoal. Look at it was I mean it, you
- 47:44feel bad for the there's there's no drop.
- 47:46There's no drawdowns, right? It's just a steady dose of
- 47:49devaluation every single day. It's systematic political and
- 47:53the reality is their data is actually much better.
- 47:56Much better than the actual situation but to a less drastic
- 47:59extent. This I think of Bitcoin
- 48:01interacting with the dollar, right?
- 48:03It's obviously a lot more volatile Bitcoin has this kind
- 48:06of wild card in the room that anybody can flood to and
- 48:10oftentimes flood to it once which leads to these crazy crazy
- 48:12explosions but it's all relative game, right?
- 48:16So it's the dollar. They're literally telling you to
- 48:18your face, they're going to continue to print this thing.
- 48:21And so, you know, I think, natural economics, human
- 48:25incentives are To play a big, big force, and people are going
- 48:27to go where your money is treated best.
- 48:29Just like, look at that. It's just, it's just up only man
- 48:32and that even that did the daily chart looks the same.
- 48:34It's just like, literally there's not even a red candle,
- 48:38it's insane. It's absolutely wild.
- 48:40And then that reminds me of the I'm glad that you brought up
- 48:43Argentina, right? The recent Bloomberg article and
- 48:47what they were remember reporting this not too long ago
- 48:49like a couple weeks ago 95 percent inflation.
- 48:52Now it's up to 99 percent inflation.
- 48:54That's absolutely wild and What's really interesting also
- 48:58is that they obviously they went to the IMF, they wanted, you
- 49:01know, a debt deal and part of that deal the IMF was like hey
- 49:05we'll give it to you but you must adopt Yuma.
- 49:08You must be incentivize the adoption of Bitcoin in the
- 49:11country, dude, it's wild man. So like I don't know what do you
- 49:16think about the 99 percent inflation?
- 49:19The hostility from the IMF which obviously makes perfect sense.
- 49:23But what are your thoughts on all that?
- 49:26Yeah, I mean I think again, this is kinda to Circle back to what
- 49:29we said at the beginning. Like this is an individual's
- 49:31game and and you know there's there's certainly a level of
- 49:37competent, a financial literacy and technological, literacy
- 49:40required to, you know, adopt the coin in the self Sovereign way.
- 49:44But I can assure you that there a Bitcoin black markets just
- 49:47like they're in a Argentina not to encourage Black Market
- 49:50activity but they're not official dollar peso exchange
- 49:55rate you Just put on the screen. That's the official one, that's
- 49:58not the that's not the street price which is actually much
- 50:01worse, right? All right.
- 50:03And you know much much stronger for the pay, so we can for the
- 50:06dollar, that's the government, the Government rate, right?
- 50:08So inflation is actually much much worse.
- 50:11All right. So that's Teddy it, that the
- 50:12market phenomenon is actually create that perfect chart.
- 50:15It's the government literally just giving you the inflation
- 50:17data or the pressing data that's cooked, right?
- 50:20The official exchange rate. And so I think that, you know,
- 50:24people are going to adopt Quentin the self-serving way
- 50:27because I've talked to people that have done it in South
- 50:30America, I've talked, I've talked to people that have, you
- 50:32know, actively fled regimes or secured their wealth in, you
- 50:38know, emerging markets and all over the world, right?
- 50:40So I think, you know, it's an education thing obviously, you
- 50:45know, it's it takes a while back when still very young, but it's
- 50:48for certain people for families for companies.
- 50:52You know? It's a having something that is
- 50:55a liability. 82. No one is an extremely powerful
- 50:58thing and honestly, like still I'm pretty bullish on like the
- 51:02adoption of, you know, like for instance like tether on Tron is
- 51:06extremely popular is tether like the best thing for people to
- 51:09store all their families. I'll even know.
- 51:12But you know, these people want dollars, they want something
- 51:13that's, you know, stable to them on a day-to-day basis.
- 51:16I know the dollar purchasing power isn't stable but on a
- 51:18week-to-week day-to-day basis for, for for these people, it's
- 51:21extremely stable. And so they you know, that
- 51:23adoption I think is a bridge but ultimately You're talking about
- 51:26the rugs and the collapses earlier.
- 51:28I'm not saying tethers, bad or not.
- 51:30I'm just saying like there's a liability there, right there.
- 51:32They're issuing you this trusted, you know, token and
- 51:35they can freeze it. They can steal it.
- 51:37They can, you know, Take the Money and Run, right?
- 51:40It's there's a liability bacon there and I'll stable Queens
- 51:43have that model for now. Decentralized Solutions are
- 51:45attempting to be built but we're not there yet you know SATs on
- 51:48the lightning Network dollars on the lightning Network these Taro
- 51:51protocol. It's really interesting stuff.
- 51:53We don't really have the implementation of it yet.
- 51:56But I think ultimately Bitcoin on chain, but really, mostly
- 52:00lightning adoption quickly onboard users is, you know, the
- 52:06the kill not, you know, one of the killer apps for Bitcoin and
- 52:10we've just scratched the surface there.
- 52:12It's, I mean, we're really in year maybe one and a half of
- 52:15lightning being good enough to kind of actually operate on a
- 52:18meaningful scale and some would even say we're not even at that
- 52:20point yet, so that's going to go exponential and it's not even
- 52:23going to be exactly expressed Actually into the exchange rate
- 52:27at Elliot at first, right? And the same way that the
- 52:30grayscale are born. Michael sailor 5x the Bitcoin
- 52:32price, you know, with some leverage, Andy, John's in there,
- 52:35helping, obviously. But, you know, this, you know,
- 52:39millions and millions of people in developing markets,
- 52:44onboarding on the lightning. And, you know, somewhat kind of
- 52:47becoming familiar with Bitcoin as a medium of exchange and even
- 52:50potentially unit of account earning Bitcoins earning SATs.
- 52:54That's, that's what, you know. Why?
- 52:56This thing is going to win, is not because regardless of what
- 52:59the US does, regardless of what China does, like, people are
- 53:02utilizing this instrument, this, this engineering solution, and I
- 53:06think, I mean, you guys have a show on it every day, I talk
- 53:09about this every day. It's very much, it's very
- 53:11misunderstood. It takes a lot longer than I
- 53:13thought it was going to take that education and, you know,
- 53:17know a lot of people don't dive in and do 200 hours of reading
- 53:21and learning on something, once they become a little fascinator
- 53:23intrigued by it. The Bitcoin is the most
- 53:25convincing In that are, you know, all screaming at each
- 53:27other having late like have laser eyes like, yeah, they've
- 53:30we've done that due diligence the conviction is a, you know,
- 53:36natural response. But most people haven't, most
- 53:37people are like, listen speculative, internet money is
- 53:40cool things, you're telling me you're cool energy, markets, and
- 53:43inflation and all this Yahoo stuff that you don't really
- 53:46know. I'm a dentist.
- 53:47I don't really care about any of this stuff.
- 53:50I don't need to, I don't really want to invest my money.
- 53:52I want to save, right? And you're trying to, like,
- 53:54explain something to this. This person that is never even
- 53:57stepped inside the world. You're trying to explain.
- 53:59So it takes time. It's going to take.
- 54:02I think a little bit longer than we think but you know there's
- 54:04certainly a case where the gradually then suddenly aspect.
- 54:07Is that play here? The question is like where are
- 54:10we on that inflection point? I don't know, but I certainly
- 54:13want to be along for the ride and will be.
- 54:14So we will see ya man I'm being in the trenches with you.
- 54:19Now you mentioned something and it's honestly something that
- 54:22bothered me right? Which is specifically Trees that
- 54:26have Financial privilege. They have country that countries
- 54:29that have relatively stable, Fiat, currencies people are just
- 54:33not incentivize. You said it like your dentist,
- 54:35you just don't care. But what's really fascinating is
- 54:38when you speak to an Argentine, you speak to a Venezuelan, then
- 54:40you tell them about Bitcoin. It's like where do I sign up?
- 54:44This sounds like a phenomenal idea.
- 54:46That sounds like a great idea. So And I agree and Jeff Booth
- 54:52came on the show. I was like, Hey like like aren't
- 54:54you worried that this is happening and his response is
- 54:57fascinating Dylan. He said the people that are
- 54:59closest to the to the monopolies are the ones that, you know, are
- 55:03going to be the latest to wake up, like, they're not
- 55:07incentivised to wake up, they benefit from this system.
- 55:13Yep. Yeah, that's that's perfectly
- 55:15fine. You know, I there was, there was
- 55:19a certain there was like a part of me in that kind of the orange
- 55:22peel rabbit. The rabbit hole Journey, where I
- 55:25was like, you know, begging begging and pleading with others
- 55:29to explain this to them, you know to like regardless of who
- 55:32it was right. It like friends, family
- 55:34investors that I respected for and and I reach a certain point
- 55:39where I'm so willing obviously to talk through the case, you
- 55:43know, No help people understand my perspective or other people's
- 55:46views on this thing and why they would buy it or hold it or do
- 55:49XYZ with it. But you know, if you don't care,
- 55:52if you think Bitcoin is a scam at this point, like that's fine,
- 55:54right? Like big, yeah, exactly right.
- 55:56Bitcoin is a scam. You're finally right this time.
- 56:00It's crashing 20. And at like, and and they say,
- 56:05volatility is something that like, I'm completely fine.
- 56:08I've signed up for this, I've allocated accordingly.
- 56:13You should too. And if you think that right,
- 56:15allocation is zero, that's on you and and you know, I'm fine
- 56:21with that. I had I can accept that and you
- 56:23should accept the consequences of that because there's you know
- 56:27what that does is it does a tail probability here?
- 56:29And most bitcoiners think that it's the base case and not that
- 56:31Tails Tails scenario at all we're this thing becomes you
- 56:36know a global globally, dominant Reserve asset in potential you
- 56:42know. Unit of account for, for
- 56:44Baseline, value around around the world.
- 56:47There's a, there's a tail risk of that.
- 56:49If you, if you assign the probability zero, that's fine.
- 56:51I don't think it's zero and I think it's, you know, probably
- 56:55higher than most would like to think and so, and, you know,
- 56:59accordingly, I want to own some right?
- 57:02Like and describing, this is like a hundred percent sure
- 57:05thing, hyper bit quantization. You know, I think that's where
- 57:08you lose some people, at least, like, at least to come in,
- 57:11right? Not to come in, not trying to
- 57:12recruit you. I don't care if you buy Bitcoin
- 57:14or not but like if you want to understand the thing I think
- 57:17pitching it is like a sure bed is going to you know be worth
- 57:20that hundred trillion dollars is like probably the wrong
- 57:23approach. It's like it's it's I think it's
- 57:27you know, being somewhat bullish but you know, reasonable
- 57:30objective moderate in the in the pitch is little bit more
- 57:34effective and that's maybe at the bear Market phenomenon.
- 57:36Maybe it's like, you know, we should be Schilling just
- 57:38Relentless and that's opium to get people to scoop keep SATs
- 57:42but like I've taken with my Approach a little bit, I guess,
- 57:45over the last few years in regards to like the response to
- 57:48critics. Yeah, it did, it's definitely
- 57:51very frustrating for sure. And I do want to go down that
- 57:54opium route. I want to take advantage of the
- 57:56last couple minutes on the podcast, and you were talking
- 57:59about this potentially being adopted on a worldwide level and
- 58:03there's this great piece from Kathy Woods Arc.
- 58:08And she's talking about the bear case, the bear case, the base
- 58:12case. The bull case the bull case.
- 58:15One point four eight million base case. 682,000 are case 200
- 58:19a 258,000. These numbers just don't come
- 58:22from anywhere. She's making the case that
- 58:24Bitcoin would take a percentage of digital money.
- 58:28Institutional investment, seizure resistant assets,
- 58:31economic settlement, Network Emerging Market currency nation,
- 58:34state, treasury remittance asset corporate Treasury and of course
- 58:38the bear and the bull, the percentages vary.
- 58:41But what I find the most interesting is is the digital
- 58:43gold one and the bear case would be twenty percent, which is
- 58:47pretty high percentage wise and the bull one would be 50%.
- 58:52So I don't know if you had a chance to look at this dealing
- 58:54but you know, you were mentioning about Bitcoin
- 58:57potentially being, you know, adopted on a worldwide level and
- 59:00as you know, this is a good little graphic to pull up to, to
- 59:04speak about that. So, I don't know, man.
- 59:07What do you think of this? Is this pure hope IAM straight
- 59:09into our veins. Yeah, I think.
- 59:13The thing that I've learned is that, you know, to a certain
- 59:17extent priced like price targets.
- 59:20Fair value estimations Etc are great.
- 59:23You know happy to hear those and you know potentially some
- 59:28baseline scenarios but assigning a price and a timeline is for
- 59:32something that's volatile. You know this nascent to the
- 59:36upside and in a volatile upside and downside, right?
- 59:39Like in 2015 who could have imagined in their right?
- 59:43Mind that Bitcoin was going to touch 20,000.
- 59:45It's just, it was just inconceivable and, you know,
- 59:48subsequently, right? If you told someone in 20
- 59:50January of 2018 and I write it weird it from 20K to 15K, you're
- 59:55like, yeah, you know in 2023 Bitcoins going to be twenty
- 59:58thousand dollars if they blow it wrong, right?
- 1:00:00Like, and so that the, the wild swing of emotions is certainly
- 1:00:03it's like something but I'm sorry, I kind of I went off on a
- 1:00:08tangent and and forgot the purpose though.
- 1:00:11It's all good. It's all good.
- 1:00:12You're here. Being cautious and I think
- 1:00:15you're totally taking it, right. You're totally taking the right
- 1:00:18approach, you know? And you know you're saying
- 1:00:21because I completely agree. I think that price targets into
- 1:00:24the future, it's pure hope, IAM no one has anyone?
- 1:00:27No one has any idea what they're talking about?
- 1:00:29I just think it's interesting, maybe not So Much from the price
- 1:00:33anticipation aspect like if we put that aside but more so from
- 1:00:37the percentage of the the penetration, the penetration
- 1:00:42percentage rate, and I think that's what's really interesting
- 1:00:45to me, right? Specifically when it comes to,
- 1:00:47for example, nation state treasury, you know, zero one
- 1:00:50percent and 5 percent of the numbers she laid out digital
- 1:00:53gold, 20 40, 50 %, institutional investment, 12.5 6.5%.
- 1:00:59So I guess the question, I'm more responsible question for
- 1:01:01you. Dylan would be are those numbers
- 1:01:04even conceivable. Did you imagine a future where
- 1:01:07Bitcoin is a well-respected because it has to be two in
- 1:01:12order to get to those numbers? He's a well-respected,
- 1:01:15institutional investment. Do you see that?
- 1:01:17Because right now, we live kind of in this in, you know, in this
- 1:01:20moment in time where, you know, Michael sailor named bouquet
- 1:01:25lay, you know, they don't exactly look like they don't
- 1:01:29exactly. Look like their moves were
- 1:01:30intelligent. Of course, as bitcoiners were
- 1:01:33bias and we know they're going to be Vindicated eventually as
- 1:01:36number go up. Technology does his thing but I
- 1:01:39don't know man. What's your take on that?
- 1:01:44Yeah, I mean I think it's it's the it's just it's a global
- 1:01:49Capital flight sponge and capital flight not in a
- 1:01:53political dissident way but potentially in a political
- 1:01:56dissident way but in a in a systematic way it's like leave
- 1:02:00you think about all foreign exchange?
- 1:02:02If you think about, you know, dollars against Japanese Yen.
- 1:02:06It's a little 4X, a little different because like they both
- 1:02:08have moving exchange rates. So there's also kind of an
- 1:02:10exchange rate interest rate. Carry mechanism in those
- 1:02:13relative things. But essentially, right?
- 1:02:15Like if you think about the dollar, if you think about when
- 1:02:17you're talking about, you know, Global debt to GDP Dynamics, you
- 1:02:20know, why debt to GDP even matters?
- 1:02:22And why do we see like these Global Wars break out at these
- 1:02:26high inflection points of global debt to GDP?
- 1:02:29And then war is coming, like somehow reset the table, and why
- 1:02:32does that stuff happen in monetary systems?
- 1:02:35Why a - are resets happen at these Global inflection points
- 1:02:39and it's because Dad systems are two unsustainable.
- 1:02:42Right? It's just they reach a point
- 1:02:44where they can't be service. So that something has to be done
- 1:02:46to revalue the real burdens and we're in the middle of the three
- 1:02:50valuation with this kind of this in dose of inflation, they
- 1:02:53mapped this out in 2014 15. That IMF came out.
- 1:02:57They wrote a paper, they're like, how do we get this debt
- 1:03:00levels down there? Like, oh, well, a steady dose of
- 1:03:02inflation and you're basically it's a wealth transfer from the
- 1:03:04creditors who are the creditors people that buy the long-term
- 1:03:07debt, right? So this is the game that's being
- 1:03:09played and Bitcoin is just sponge as Just this exit opt-out
- 1:03:13vehicle, you know, whether it's like, you know, your DC a
- 1:03:17saying, on on Swan, or strike or river or you're, you know,
- 1:03:21you're in an emerging market and you're literally just, you know,
- 1:03:25selling freaking, you know, you're selling food on the side
- 1:03:29of the road to support your family and you're storing and
- 1:03:32blue wallet in an open-source manner.
- 1:03:33Like this is all this is all happening and it's all at a
- 1:03:36relative game. So to bitcoin you know like a
- 1:03:39fourth of the funny thing is like a 40 percent compound.
- 1:03:42Well, growth rate is like the bear case, right?
- 1:03:44Like / that in half, right? Like / /, the the, their bare
- 1:03:48case Arc by 75% and and have it be a 25 percent the size of that
- 1:03:54of that bear case prediction? What was the bear case like a
- 1:03:56couple under thousand? Like even if it was like a you
- 1:03:59know like oh your estimate Bitcoin at the worst worst case
- 1:04:02and then you know lower that by a factor of four even though the
- 1:04:06worst case is still a good 10-15 percent kegger like oh Okay.
- 1:04:10So I just, you know, all I need to do is just like a little bit
- 1:04:14of it. Protect my, like, my tail risk
- 1:04:17here, which is like the system, I know, and I'm comfortable with
- 1:04:21and the world. I know from an economic
- 1:04:23standpoint, even if you don't know economics, you know, I just
- 1:04:26have a 401k or pension or something that I promised when
- 1:04:28your son like you should own a little bit of Bitcoin in case of
- 1:04:30that those entitlements. You think you have or if big fat
- 1:04:33zero, but Niko I my Social Security's taken every every
- 1:04:36week from from part of my income.
- 1:04:39And I just I just imagine the money just giving birth to see
- 1:04:44any of it. I know I know that I'm an I'm at
- 1:04:47you know I'm not necessarily peace with that but I understand
- 1:04:50that's that's the reality of my situation.
- 1:04:53It's stolen. It's burned is no I'm never
- 1:04:55going to see it. You know it's supposed to be
- 1:04:57going to the roads but it's really being funneled through
- 1:04:59Ukraine in a money-laundering operation.
- 1:05:02Like I'm at peace with that. I understand that I will say
- 1:05:05that and maybe that makes me. You know this Rogue political
- 1:05:10Political person. But like, you know, I don't
- 1:05:12think the radical View at all. So so my response to that is
- 1:05:15that all right? I'm going to own one of the only
- 1:05:17things the world that I think I can actually own and I like I'm
- 1:05:19really comfortable as a mathematics person like I
- 1:05:21approach Bitcoin from a math and finance lens.
- 1:05:25First and all the technological stuff I dug into and came to
- 1:05:28understand afterwards. But as a math person, like I'm
- 1:05:31very, very comfortable after, you know, reading some elliptic
- 1:05:35curve cryptography and reading smart people's opinions on it.
- 1:05:39And learning about encryption and learning about, you know,
- 1:05:42the having in the difficult adjustment, all these things,
- 1:05:43and how this thing works, and learning a little bit about
- 1:05:46software and what running a node means and what mining means
- 1:05:49being like. Okay, wait so this is probably
- 1:05:51the only place in the world where like I can you know, hold
- 1:05:55what I own and where it can't be interrupted where I can't be
- 1:05:58corrupted, like that's there's really nothing else, I can
- 1:06:02defend gold with my gun. Right?
- 1:06:04Like, that's okay. That's good.
- 1:06:06That's not good. If I wanted hop around the world
- 1:06:08really easily, right? So, like Bitcoin, just like for
- 1:06:11me, you know, I'm a privilege Western ego.
- 1:06:14Like, I have a brokerage account and I can short bonds, if I want
- 1:06:18to or long NASDAQ stock, but like, you know, it's like the
- 1:06:24person in Argentina, can't buy NASDAQ I can't get dollars, even
- 1:06:28they get to get dollars, the real rate, like, what can they
- 1:06:30do? And there's, you know, I think
- 1:06:32there's like there's a singularity here with like
- 1:06:34Bitcoin as, you know, one of the more important ideas of our
- 1:06:37time, the wild, the wild bullish price targets are fun.
- 1:06:41And I've honestly been a proponent and champion of some
- 1:06:44of those crazy ludicrous Targets in the past and I still am but I
- 1:06:48think that's the price. Despite being a you know an
- 1:06:50analyst I post a lot about markets and financial stuff in
- 1:06:53price. I think that's like one of the
- 1:06:55probably lesser. Seeing things is like projecting
- 1:06:58out. Like how many socks do I own
- 1:07:00more and like what will this price be in the future 10
- 1:07:02million. Oh, I'm Gonna Be Rich, I'm gonna
- 1:07:04buy a jet ski in a villa, you know, versus like, okay.
- 1:07:08Like this is the probably one of the most important ideas, ideas
- 1:07:10of our time, I should own some, I should be able to eloquently
- 1:07:13described the bull case of it. I should be able to, regardless
- 1:07:17of who's my listener. Because there's there's there's
- 1:07:21always an angle where someone could probably understand it if
- 1:07:23they're if they're not completely like close-minded and
- 1:07:26have. And of cognitive dissonance.
- 1:07:28So I think that's the important thing.
- 1:07:29I think, you know, the arc framework is interesting, they
- 1:07:32certainly been battered. Arc is no longer, you know
- 1:07:37there's some there's some really smart mines there.
- 1:07:39So I respect what they do and I think you you you said it.
- 1:07:44Perfectly Dylan. Came for the money stayed for
- 1:07:47the revolution. I think that's that's what we're
- 1:07:50all. Living through nowadays anyways.
- 1:07:52Dylan the Claire, it's been a pleasure honor like always,
- 1:07:55thank you so much. For for coming on simply Bitcoin
- 1:07:59IRL. And I mean there's an obvious
- 1:08:02question, but I do it with every guest.
- 1:08:04What are you working on now days?
- 1:08:05And where can people find you online?
- 1:08:07Yeah, I am doing a few different things.
- 1:08:11I'm with the climatic scene because yank reading the
- 1:08:15newsletter Bitcoin magazine Pro could find that if Accord
- 1:08:18magazine Pro.com, we're putting putting together some stack
- 1:08:20releases covering more of the finance aspect of it.
- 1:08:24Also kind of doing my own thing with 21st paradigm.
- 1:08:26Can find me at Dillon, the Claire dot info or to my Twitter
- 1:08:30at dealing with Claire underscore.
- 1:08:33You know, I also have been trying to Noster.
- 1:08:36I don't know if it's the best place to find me there, but it's
- 1:08:39a pretty exciting that app and Twitter.
- 1:08:42You know, I am bullish on Twitter.
- 1:08:45I like Twitter, love Twitter, spent way too much time on there
- 1:08:48for the past few years, but a little bit pessimistic about it.
- 1:08:51Staying power. So we'll see how it goes.
- 1:08:53But I mean like I really appreciate you guys having me on
- 1:08:56It's been fun to rip and hope the listeners.
- 1:08:59Enjoyed, enjoyed it a bit. Thanks Dylan.
- 1:09:01Appreciate you coming on guys, that was another episode of
- 1:09:05Simply Bitcoin IRL. If you enjoyed it, make sure to
- 1:09:07smash that like button and we will see you tomorrow back for
- 1:09:10the live show, but if you want more Bitcoin content and head
- 1:09:12over to the swan Bitcoin Channel, they just dropped a new
- 1:09:16podcast for dr. Jeff Ross and James lavish so
- 1:09:18definitely check that out. Love you all and see you
- 1:09:21tomorrow.