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AFC West Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am your host, Chad Newman. We have been counting
0:19
Speaker 1: down every single division in the NFL, which teams have improved,
0:24
Speaker 1: which teams haven't since the offseason, figuring out what the
0:29
Speaker 1: betting opportunities are, super Bowl Conference division totals. We're finally
0:37
Speaker 1: on our last division. We are doing the a f
0:40
Speaker 1: C West today. I am going to bring in Professional Better,
0:44
Speaker 1: my co host of the podcast, my bff, my companion,
0:48
Speaker 1: my compader, Mr Simon Hunter, made it to the end,
0:52
Speaker 1: Buddy next week and I already got a list. Next
0:56
Speaker 1: week we start talking real games, real picks. Dad. I
1:01
Speaker 1: really came believe made a buddy. It feels like just
1:04
Speaker 1: yesterday the season was ending. You're like, hey, you want
1:06
Speaker 1: to go do two shows a week? And I was like,
1:08
Speaker 1: I don't know about that, but we did it. I
1:11
Speaker 1: somehow made it every show too, which is shocking at me, Um,
1:14
Speaker 1: because we don't know this. I'm very full laky, and
1:17
Speaker 1: I feel like you've helped me get rid of that
1:19
Speaker 1: quality of myself where it's like I used to always
1:22
Speaker 1: just wake up every day and like, oh great, I
1:24
Speaker 1: have nothing to do to instead I had this podcast,
1:26
Speaker 1: and uh, dude, dude, as I wrote in your mini review,
1:31
Speaker 1: because you were away professional and you make both the
1:34
Speaker 1: job your acclamation to employee and part of a company,
1:41
Speaker 1: you what might be the most professional person we have
1:44
Speaker 1: working on our podcast team. I don't know if that's
1:47
Speaker 1: saying much, but yeah, I feel like I'm definitely too
1:49
Speaker 1: where if I do something life, I work my ass
1:52
Speaker 1: off towards it. Um, So hope I don't lose that
1:55
Speaker 1: as I get older. I clearly still have it going.
1:57
Speaker 1: But that's funny you feel that because I was so
2:00
Speaker 1: nervous going and I was like, I really hope I
2:03
Speaker 1: don't let this guy chat down because I am so flaky.
2:06
Speaker 1: So that's hilarious here you said, I guess. I guess
2:08
Speaker 1: I've grown up a little bit. You've grown up a
2:10
Speaker 1: little bit just in the past few months. Um. I
2:13
Speaker 1: feel like, so yesterday I want to get to the
2:16
Speaker 1: to the a f C. West, I do, but I
2:18
Speaker 1: need to engage our audience for a second. Because yesterday
2:22
Speaker 1: a buddy of mine called me and he said he
2:25
Speaker 1: was listening to the podcasts, and uh, he definitely is
2:28
Speaker 1: not a guy who was listening to the podcast sort
2:31
Speaker 1: of either in any of the iterations when it was
2:34
Speaker 1: behind the That's on ESPN, which we started in two
2:37
Speaker 1: thousand ten, or in its new form as The Favorites. No,
2:42
Speaker 1: I'm not angry about it. I'm just saying, like, he's
2:43
Speaker 1: a guy who's like just figuring out the space. He's
2:46
Speaker 1: got a cast, casual listener, just getting used to it, right,
2:49
Speaker 1: and so he mentioned like he's like, dude, it's kind
2:53
Speaker 1: of annoying when you sort of make an emphasis on
2:57
Speaker 1: the way you say compadre and my companion, and I'm like, dude,
3:03
Speaker 1: it's a throwback to something that's been on the podcast
3:05
Speaker 1: for a while because we used to talk about he's
3:08
Speaker 1: bounding down, and there used to be these audio throws
3:13
Speaker 1: to him saying be my companion. When we're talking about
3:17
Speaker 1: certain bets like go in with me. He goes, oh,
3:19
Speaker 1: I had no idea. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest.
3:22
Speaker 1: All right, I'll be my companion. I need you to
3:25
Speaker 1: make me help them be jealous of me. Later on
3:27
Speaker 1: that day made me realize not everybody is listening to
3:30
Speaker 1: the show, either for me for the past ten years
3:34
Speaker 1: or you and me together for the past two years.
3:36
Speaker 1: That's why your once favorite narcissist Chad I know, right,
3:39
Speaker 1: and so and then Matt Mitchell, please come on read
3:43
Speaker 1: the review that you read to me yesterday, which it
3:46
Speaker 1: kind of just made me feel bad, but go ahead
3:47
Speaker 1: and read it. Anyways. We received a review on Apple
3:51
Speaker 1: Podcasts from brain Worm at pseudomail dot com which was
3:57
Speaker 1: three stars right in the middle appreciate your reach it out,
4:00
Speaker 1: and the review's title is it's one of these where
4:05
Speaker 1: a clear shot at Simon Hunter's verbal tech, and the
4:09
Speaker 1: review states Simon gives out good info, not a huge
4:14
Speaker 1: fan of Chad, not very funny, and kind of irritating.
4:20
Speaker 1: I do want to let brain Warm at pseudomail dot com. No,
4:24
Speaker 1: I appreciate the review. If you email podcasts at Action
4:29
Speaker 1: network dot com, I'll send you a prize. We're gonna
4:33
Speaker 1: give this guy a prize for being mean to me
4:35
Speaker 1: and giving us a middling review. Yeah, well, listen, um.
4:43
Speaker 1: I do think it speaks to the fact that sometimes
4:47
Speaker 1: we have to step back remind ourselves that not everybody
4:53
Speaker 1: our audience is getting bigger, Our audience is changing over
4:56
Speaker 1: the years. It's not the same group of people that
4:58
Speaker 1: are always emailing us that we community kate with sort
5:00
Speaker 1: of our loyal listeners. There are new people coming in
5:03
Speaker 1: all the time. We should probably explain like a little bit.
5:05
Speaker 1: I think we should do this, especially because now we're
5:07
Speaker 1: with the Volume podcast Network. The Herd is a massive
5:10
Speaker 1: brand for radio. I mean Colin calaher not the Herd,
5:14
Speaker 1: and so um, I feel like we need to explain.
5:19
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Melman. I'm the Chief Content Officer at the
5:21
Speaker 1: Action Network. I started a betting podcast in my old
5:25
Speaker 1: days of ESPN called Behind the Beats, and I had
5:28
Speaker 1: done that because I had been covering the sports betting
5:31
Speaker 1: world for ten years before that. And uh, we are
5:34
Speaker 1: part of the Action Network and I'm the chief Content
5:36
Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. I help launched the Action
5:38
Speaker 1: Network in two thousands seventeen and we focus on covering
5:44
Speaker 1: the sports betting world, analysis, data, research stories online. They
5:48
Speaker 1: can help you make decisions about who you want to
5:50
Speaker 1: bet on, understanding how to bet, education in states where
5:54
Speaker 1: it's legal, Where can you bet? What can you do
5:57
Speaker 1: to make bets? Can you bet online? You have to
5:59
Speaker 1: go to you know, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. That's who we are.
6:04
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is my co host. He's been doing it
6:06
Speaker 1: with me for threeemes. I can give my accolades Chad, Chad,
6:09
Speaker 1: how long have you been giving off five picks on
6:11
Speaker 1: this show here? Probably forever? How long? How long have
6:18
Speaker 1: I had a show? So Chad just said he's been
6:19
Speaker 1: giving out five picks forever on the show. Chad hired
6:23
Speaker 1: me last year to work full time. Okay, full time
6:27
Speaker 1: one year ago. Chad made the money for the first
6:30
Speaker 1: time in his life after hiring me one year ago.
6:32
Speaker 1: So if you know how good I am again, Chad
6:35
Speaker 1: did the show forever, never made the money. He hired
6:38
Speaker 1: me one year ago to do this show full time.
6:40
Speaker 1: He made the money in one year. So I think that, Uh,
6:43
Speaker 1: that's all you need to hear about my accolades. Simon
6:45
Speaker 1: Hunter is a professional better who's very humble and uh,
6:51
Speaker 1: and he has been doing this forever and does it
6:53
Speaker 1: very well and just through the gifts to the gods.
6:55
Speaker 1: He reached out to me on Twitter, uh a couple
6:58
Speaker 1: of years ago. I responded because respond to everybody, and UM,
7:02
Speaker 1: we ended up having a great conversation. It was one
7:04
Speaker 1: of those things. In ten minutes I knew the guy
7:06
Speaker 1: was a guy. It would be great to work with. Literally,
7:09
Speaker 1: that's how long it took for me to say, you
7:11
Speaker 1: know what, just come on the podcast. I honestly like
7:14
Speaker 1: honest to God and so, you know, Simon Matt Mitchell,
7:18
Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell, I feel like we probably need to
7:23
Speaker 1: do some kind of intro to remind people will incorporate
7:26
Speaker 1: that and whatever we're doing over the next few weeks
7:28
Speaker 1: because the volume brings a different audience. It brings a
7:32
Speaker 1: bigger audience that there's new people getting used to us
7:33
Speaker 1: all the time, and so I don't want people to
7:35
Speaker 1: think I'm annoying, just you know, outside of the fact
7:39
Speaker 1: that I'm annoying. I think that's a great idea because
7:43
Speaker 1: reviews like this, Chad, they inspire. Because I was told
7:47
Speaker 1: by a very smart guy, feedback is a gift. Feedback
7:50
Speaker 1: as a gift that guy also might be very irritating
7:54
Speaker 1: as a podcast to host a lot of respect though
7:58
Speaker 1: it has been doing it for a long time. Yeah, well,
8:01
Speaker 1: apparently brain Worm isn't a fan, but that's cool. Let's
8:03
Speaker 1: give him some fucking presents. You know how hard it
8:07
Speaker 1: is to get people to write a review. I'm just
8:09
Speaker 1: happy he took the time. That's true. If someone else
8:12
Speaker 1: wants to write a review, we will send you a present.
8:14
Speaker 1: Write us a review, will send you a present. Simon
8:17
Speaker 1: wants to stay something. Yeah, I was gonna say. I
8:19
Speaker 1: can get some reviews for you guys, if you really
8:21
Speaker 1: want them. Okay, go to Apple Podcast the best funniest
8:25
Speaker 1: five star review. I will give you one of my
8:28
Speaker 1: four big bets of the year for free on Twitter.
8:31
Speaker 1: So again, I want the funniest, biggest best review of
8:35
Speaker 1: the next two weeks. We'll do it after the beginning
8:37
Speaker 1: of week two. We'll select the winner. I will personally
8:40
Speaker 1: give you not a lock. Okay, any bed can lose.
8:44
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a play that I'm feeling pretty
8:46
Speaker 1: pretty good about. So it could be week three, week four,
8:49
Speaker 1: or the end of the year. I never know I'm
8:50
Speaker 1: gonna make these bets, but I promise you will get
8:52
Speaker 1: one of those bets that, by the way, that's like
8:56
Speaker 1: a massive, massive gift right there. Hey, I did it
9:00
Speaker 1: last year for a fan and it worked out where
9:02
Speaker 1: it was funny. You should I gave him the pick
9:03
Speaker 1: and he goes, are you sure you don't fucking question
9:06
Speaker 1: this pick? Just bet it? Don't don't question these picks.
9:10
Speaker 1: That's why I love people. Don't challenge me. I'm giving
9:13
Speaker 1: you a fucking gift. It's like it's like bur Durham.
9:16
Speaker 1: I give you a gift and you show up my picture.
9:21
Speaker 1: Classic Simon. All right, Simon, how many stars should that
9:25
Speaker 1: review be? Five stars? There we go? Five stars? Yeah, yeah,
9:33
Speaker 1: five stars? All right, here we go. I don't know
9:37
Speaker 1: what sim is doing right now? He got it, got
9:41
Speaker 1: a ghost gaming that that might have been a sign. Seriously,
9:43
Speaker 1: it's the it's hurricane Ida. Um. We're talking about the
9:47
Speaker 1: AFC West today, and I'm glad we saved this one
9:51
Speaker 1: for last because it's so challenging. Obviously, Kansas City odds
9:57
Speaker 1: on favorite two and everything five to one, women the
10:00
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Shortest odds, uh plus two fifty to win
10:03
Speaker 1: the conference, shortest odds mine is too fifty to win
10:06
Speaker 1: the division like you like, easily, the shortest odds of
10:13
Speaker 1: any I don't even know how to say shortest odds
10:15
Speaker 1: for a minus two fifty um to win the division.
10:19
Speaker 1: And then there's season win total was twelve highest in
10:21
Speaker 1: the NFL. Before we get to the Chargers, who I
10:25
Speaker 1: think are the most interesting team in the NFL. UM
10:28
Speaker 1: and I think it's a bomber there in this division
10:30
Speaker 1: with Kansas City. Break down the chart of the Chiefs.
10:33
Speaker 1: For me, another hot take of mind chat is this,
10:36
Speaker 1: to me is the best division in football. A lot
10:39
Speaker 1: of people think, like you think it's an NFC West,
10:42
Speaker 1: actually think it's this division. I just I have way
10:45
Speaker 1: more respect for Derek carrd than I think most fans do.
10:47
Speaker 1: I just view him different. Then everyone views him as
10:51
Speaker 1: just a terrible quarterback that can't really do much, where
10:53
Speaker 1: it's like, no, this guy is actually pretty good. He
10:55
Speaker 1: just hasn't had a good defense ever since his coach
10:57
Speaker 1: trade away Khalil mac So it's one of those where
11:02
Speaker 1: when they got Herbert and you know Teddy Bridgewater now
11:05
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. It's it's a tougher division that my homes
11:09
Speaker 1: has gone against the last two years, where you know,
11:11
Speaker 1: Denver didn't have a quarterback and the Chargers had a
11:13
Speaker 1: broken down Flip River. So it's definitely interesting when you
11:16
Speaker 1: see the wind total for the Chiefs, would you say
11:18
Speaker 1: it was twelve and a half? Now tell the Vandals.
11:22
Speaker 1: So that's come down a little bit where I think
11:24
Speaker 1: a lot of the professionals are looking at the date
11:27
Speaker 1: of this team won fourteen games last year. The history
11:31
Speaker 1: of the NFL teams that won fourteen games and then
11:34
Speaker 1: their win totals over twelve the following year, it is
11:37
Speaker 1: not good. I don't know the exact number, but I'm
11:39
Speaker 1: almost positive it's like, man, I would have to look
11:43
Speaker 1: at see the last thing to do. I think it
11:45
Speaker 1: was a Patriots. I think it was like ten years ago,
11:46
Speaker 1: a team that won fourteen wins that was able to
11:48
Speaker 1: cover the next year's season win sols. So the thing
11:51
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs, I feel like people need to take
11:54
Speaker 1: a step back and look at We know that this
11:56
Speaker 1: team had injuries. Okay, that happened in the Super Bowl.
12:00
Speaker 1: We saw what happened. They could not block from a
12:02
Speaker 1: home so they got dominated. So the Chiefs have done
12:05
Speaker 1: the thing now where they've gotten rid of all these
12:07
Speaker 1: offensive linement. They have a much of the new starters
12:09
Speaker 1: coming in, and we saw any Reid he played these
12:12
Speaker 1: starters the first preseason game, the second preseason game, and
12:16
Speaker 1: the third preseason game because he said himself the offense
12:19
Speaker 1: did not look right. He wanted them to get into
12:21
Speaker 1: a little bit of a groove. And I think it's
12:22
Speaker 1: a lot to do with the offensive line. He wanted
12:24
Speaker 1: this offensive line to kind of get together. So I
12:27
Speaker 1: remember saying earlier in the year, I wouldn't take this
12:29
Speaker 1: under it because I just hate going against Patrick Mahomes
12:32
Speaker 1: and this Chief's team. But as this offseason has gone
12:35
Speaker 1: along and I really looked at this division, I've said
12:37
Speaker 1: to my stuff, you know what, it kind of felt
12:39
Speaker 1: like everything really did go right for them last year,
12:41
Speaker 1: and they're kind of one of these teams where you
12:45
Speaker 1: could say it with every team. I get that, but
12:46
Speaker 1: it does feel like one of those things where without walkins,
12:49
Speaker 1: without a couple of these guys, these backups, if they
12:52
Speaker 1: at least Tyreek Hill, if they least Travis Kelsey, it's
12:55
Speaker 1: kind of scary to think what this offense could be like.
12:57
Speaker 1: And I could see them dropping a couple of games
12:59
Speaker 1: along the way. So I've kind of turned a corner here.
13:02
Speaker 1: I really thought the Chiefs were kind of this lock,
13:04
Speaker 1: this team that I got why everyone's all in on them.
13:06
Speaker 1: They're gonna make it back to the super Bowl. To
13:08
Speaker 1: go on the other way where it's like this might
13:10
Speaker 1: actually be a down year for the Chiefs, and I'm
13:12
Speaker 1: gonna try to take advantage of that. So I'm not
13:15
Speaker 1: telling you about it because it's not one of my
13:17
Speaker 1: favorite bets. But if you're leaning which way to go,
13:19
Speaker 1: the over the under, you're picking a win total here.
13:22
Speaker 1: I definitely like the under. Heear for the Chiefs wintel,
13:24
Speaker 1: and that's the fact that it's down to twelve. I
13:26
Speaker 1: would chop around, but that's that's a fair line by Fandel.
13:29
Speaker 1: But you might still be able to five twelve and
13:30
Speaker 1: a halfs out there. So you mentioned the offensive line.
13:35
Speaker 1: They lost Derek Fisher, they lost Mitchell Shorts. Um, they've
13:40
Speaker 1: added Orlando Brown, you know, they've they've added players to
13:46
Speaker 1: the offensive line. If you feel like they're playing the
13:52
Speaker 1: offensive line a lot handicap for me, How long in
13:56
Speaker 1: your experience does it take an offensive line that is
14:00
Speaker 1: full of talent so it's not like it's lacking talent
14:03
Speaker 1: an offensive line like this? To Jael, when do you
14:07
Speaker 1: sort of think about here's when I can be seeing
14:12
Speaker 1: opportunities to bet against the Chiefs. They actually did. Look
14:16
Speaker 1: they didn't improve each game. Um, I think they're keeping
14:19
Speaker 1: ten offensive alignment. I saw something like that that they
14:21
Speaker 1: kept ten to the starting roster, which is pretty insane. Um,
14:26
Speaker 1: I don't know it's just beer like they traded they
14:29
Speaker 1: traded for the Eagles for a guy who I mean,
14:32
Speaker 1: he's not even was going to make our practice squad
14:35
Speaker 1: um a lot of them. There's just a lot of
14:37
Speaker 1: different red flags towards the Chiefs. Um Again, I'm not
14:42
Speaker 1: trying to be so down on them, because I'm with everyone.
14:45
Speaker 1: Mahomes is unbelievable all these things, But we just say
14:48
Speaker 1: time and time again, like I don't know, just think
14:51
Speaker 1: that they're gonna go three straight Super Bowls. That's pretty rare,
14:54
Speaker 1: especially in this DNAG and just looking again at that division,
14:59
Speaker 1: it's just like, I don't know if it's gonna be
15:01
Speaker 1: that easier for them to get the one seed again,
15:02
Speaker 1: which is they've they've been the one or two seed
15:04
Speaker 1: the last two times they've gone to Super Bowl. So
15:08
Speaker 1: I think people need to understand this offensive line and stuff.
15:10
Speaker 1: It's it's more about then being in you know, in
15:15
Speaker 1: like we don't know each other at and then knowing
15:17
Speaker 1: what Holmes is gonna do because we've seen my homes.
15:19
Speaker 1: My homes, he can make plays. That's why I don't
15:22
Speaker 1: want to put too much into the offensive line because
15:24
Speaker 1: my homes we've seen it time and time again he
15:26
Speaker 1: can get outside the pocket and make different plays. But
15:28
Speaker 1: I don't want to be a little the fact that
15:29
Speaker 1: the guys you just named are all pros, like that
15:32
Speaker 1: he's losing all pro left tackle again, a new center.
15:35
Speaker 1: There's just a lot of different things where it's like, Okay,
15:38
Speaker 1: I can see why their professionals have coming and bet
15:40
Speaker 1: this under because there are a lot of things they
15:42
Speaker 1: make you pause. And again when I look at this
15:44
Speaker 1: division and how good it's gonna be in the first place,
15:46
Speaker 1: schedule they're gonna play, you have to bet this under
15:50
Speaker 1: just statistically on based on the math. You have to
15:53
Speaker 1: take this onder just because that's how hard it is
15:54
Speaker 1: for teams that year, and you out to break go
15:57
Speaker 1: over their total win total. The argers meanwhile, because I'm
16:02
Speaker 1: gonna skip over chief, super Bowl, Division and conference really,
16:06
Speaker 1: because what are you gonna do. You're not going to
16:08
Speaker 1: bet him five to one and you're not going to
16:09
Speaker 1: get him better a plus two fifty, And like you said,
16:11
Speaker 1: there's new people of the show. I'm my job is
16:14
Speaker 1: really find value for Chad. And we talked about this
16:16
Speaker 1: two years ago. They were four and four when Mahomes
16:19
Speaker 1: got hurt. Two years ago the year they won the
16:21
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and I told Chad, hey, there's some good
16:24
Speaker 1: value right now in the Chiefs because people are down
16:25
Speaker 1: on them because myhomes is hurt. They got all up
16:28
Speaker 1: to eighteen to one to win the Super Bowl that year,
16:30
Speaker 1: so right now their odds aren't that good. But all
16:32
Speaker 1: we need is maybe an injury, a couple of losing shrieks,
16:35
Speaker 1: and we're gonna be able to double those odds win
16:37
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. So again, please anything shorter than twelve
16:40
Speaker 1: to one. Don't waste your money on betting right now
16:42
Speaker 1: and any these Super Bowl futures. You want to just
16:44
Speaker 1: try to play and find value later on in the season.
16:47
Speaker 1: All right, Well, that that's great advice. We talked a
16:50
Speaker 1: lot about this with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year.
16:53
Speaker 1: Where As soon as free agency conversation began last year,
16:59
Speaker 1: you and a lot of people at actually Network started
17:02
Speaker 1: betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at fifty to one
17:04
Speaker 1: and continue to bet them as it went down, down, down,
17:07
Speaker 1: and then they got out. Tom Brady, um, So, value value,
17:11
Speaker 1: value combined with knowledge, combined with information, combined with sort
17:15
Speaker 1: of trying to put pieces together. That's how you make
17:18
Speaker 1: good decisions about value on future ods. The Chargers are
17:21
Speaker 1: one of those teams where I have bet them at
17:25
Speaker 1: thirty three to one, a little bit longer actually to
17:28
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. I have bet them at nine.
17:31
Speaker 1: I bet them over nine for their season win total
17:33
Speaker 1: there at sixteen to one to win the conference plus
17:36
Speaker 1: four fifty to win the division. How do you handicap
17:39
Speaker 1: a team like this when they're in the conference with
17:41
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We love them. Uh, it's classic. Um again, people,
17:49
Speaker 1: you're gonna hear me say this all the time, but
17:51
Speaker 1: it's just we've just seen it time and time again,
17:53
Speaker 1: the second year jump. So we have a guy in
17:56
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert that we both believe in. He looked incredible
17:59
Speaker 1: as a rookie, and now we're making bets that he's
18:01
Speaker 1: going to take another step in his second year. So
18:03
Speaker 1: we already think he's a pretty good guy. Now we
18:06
Speaker 1: think he's gonna go jump into the top five, maybe
18:08
Speaker 1: top three quarterbacks in the whole league. And that's what
18:10
Speaker 1: these kind of value bets are for. So, like you
18:13
Speaker 1: just said, we had longer odds. You could have got
18:15
Speaker 1: them at forty two one to win the Super Bowl.
18:17
Speaker 1: UM shop around because that number still might be out there,
18:19
Speaker 1: but now they're down to thirty three two one on
18:20
Speaker 1: vandel It's it feels like a perfect storm of a
18:24
Speaker 1: team here where I love that they got a defensive
18:28
Speaker 1: minded coach from the Rams. He's actually one of the
18:31
Speaker 1: favorites for Coach of the Year, which is kind of
18:33
Speaker 1: interesting that people have bet that up. They brought over
18:36
Speaker 1: Lombardi from the Saints around the offense, so we should
18:39
Speaker 1: see more stuff that those Saints ran, which again you
18:42
Speaker 1: can stay with everyone. I love Shampaign. I love that
18:45
Speaker 1: this guy's bring that same offensive style from that team
18:47
Speaker 1: to the Chargers team. I love. Teams are just built
18:50
Speaker 1: stars and scrubs, and that's the team we have here.
18:53
Speaker 1: So we have a team that's taught. We talked all
18:55
Speaker 1: the time. Rookie contract is one of the most important
18:57
Speaker 1: things for the Super Bowl stuff. You're looking for a
19:00
Speaker 1: a quarterback that's being paid sheep, that has hiped talent
19:03
Speaker 1: that the team can use that money to make the
19:05
Speaker 1: team around him better. And when I look at this team,
19:08
Speaker 1: there are truly a starting sprup team. They have no
19:11
Speaker 1: depth at all on their d line, no real depth
19:14
Speaker 1: at all the at the linebacker position. And no depth
19:17
Speaker 1: at all at the cornerback position. But their starters are
19:20
Speaker 1: incredible and people know the names. Everyone knows boasts, boasts,
19:23
Speaker 1: everyone knows Darwin James. I love this kid. It's note
19:26
Speaker 1: Samuel Jr. Which a piece Willy coming out either this
19:30
Speaker 1: week or next week about my long shots. He's at
19:33
Speaker 1: forty one to win a Defensive Player of the Year.
19:36
Speaker 1: I love this kid. It's note Samuel Jr. He's the
19:38
Speaker 1: cornerback for the the San Diego Chargers, I mean the
19:41
Speaker 1: l A Chargers. It was like a perfect storm where
19:44
Speaker 1: they drafted right. They had got a great defense, they
19:47
Speaker 1: have a great offensive line. They have Eckler, they have
19:49
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, they got Williams the receiver. All these pieces
19:53
Speaker 1: are here for this pretty much this year. This is
19:56
Speaker 1: it a lot of these guys are gonna leave me
19:57
Speaker 1: after this year because they're gonna need to get paid.
19:59
Speaker 1: So to me, all the signs point to the Chargers
20:02
Speaker 1: being a value in this division where if you want
20:04
Speaker 1: to bet them the one of the division, I love it.
20:05
Speaker 1: If you want to bet them with the Super Bowl,
20:07
Speaker 1: I love it. It's also one of these where if
20:09
Speaker 1: you want to wait until after Week one, I love
20:11
Speaker 1: that too, because me and Chatter were talking next week
20:14
Speaker 1: we're gonna be bet in Washington, Washington, playing the Chargers
20:17
Speaker 1: at home next week. That feels like a little bit
20:18
Speaker 1: of a trap game here for Justin Herbert going on
20:21
Speaker 1: the road, first game of the year, going across country,
20:24
Speaker 1: it feels like a little bit of a trap. So
20:26
Speaker 1: as much as I'm blowing them up, talking them up
20:28
Speaker 1: right now, I'm fine with waiting on a week for
20:31
Speaker 1: the Chargers. If you want to wait until next week,
20:32
Speaker 1: try to play, you know, a little bit of a
20:33
Speaker 1: gamble here. You might go to get forty five to
20:36
Speaker 1: one if you just wait a week, because they might
20:37
Speaker 1: starting one and people gonna be like, all right, same
20:40
Speaker 1: old Chargers. Move on. So I'm trying to think ahead
20:42
Speaker 1: and trying to find better value. So for me, if
20:44
Speaker 1: you already feel like you missed the value on the Chargers,
20:46
Speaker 1: just wait a week. You might be to find better value.
20:49
Speaker 1: I will remind people that starting next week, uh, we
20:52
Speaker 1: will twice a week Tuesday and Thursday be posting uh
20:58
Speaker 1: b b uh, listening to the podcast, and be going
21:02
Speaker 1: through our picks that we will put in on Sunday
21:05
Speaker 1: that our five best picks we'll start off on Tuesday.
21:09
Speaker 1: On Thursday, will update based on line moves that had
21:12
Speaker 1: happened over the previous forty eight hours. We are already
21:15
Speaker 1: looking at a disgusting group of pics of what we like, uh,
21:22
Speaker 1: beginning on Tuesday. And a reminder, I'll be going over
21:25
Speaker 1: all this with cow Herd on his podcast that will
21:28
Speaker 1: post on Fridays, um, comparing our picks to what his
21:32
Speaker 1: picks are, reminding him how we are so much smarter
21:35
Speaker 1: when we decide. We are choosing five picks from this
21:39
Speaker 1: group of road underdogs so far Colts underdogs, Colts Washington
21:46
Speaker 1: Football team, Houston Texans, Cincinnati, the Detroit the Giants, and
21:52
Speaker 1: the Raiders. And by the way, that's that's just the
21:55
Speaker 1: beginning of the conversation. It's very possible we have more
21:57
Speaker 1: disgusting picks than there uh, in of weeks to come.
22:01
Speaker 1: But that's why you say we might be looking at
22:05
Speaker 1: at fading the Los Angeles Chargers next week. I love
22:09
Speaker 1: this team. I love this team, the coaches, Brandon Staley,
22:12
Speaker 1: by the way, UM, I love it for all the
22:15
Speaker 1: reasons you just said. Uh. And I think that their defense,
22:18
Speaker 1: while lacking in depth, gets better by the addition of
22:24
Speaker 1: players like James, who missed the entire year last year
22:28
Speaker 1: and was an All Pro safety the year before. Like,
22:31
Speaker 1: if they can stay healthy, if they miraculously get sort
22:35
Speaker 1: of some good luck in that in that in that spot,
22:39
Speaker 1: this isn't This is a talented, talented team, and it's
22:42
Speaker 1: very possible at the end of the year seventeen game
22:45
Speaker 1: season when they're playing the Chiefs that the division title
22:49
Speaker 1: is on the line. I love it, and I just
22:52
Speaker 1: and they also you can look at the data. No
22:54
Speaker 1: team plays the Chiefs harder. I think the Chiefs beat
22:56
Speaker 1: them by three points in Herbert's first offic shill start
23:00
Speaker 1: at home last year, and then the Chiefs obviously sat
23:04
Speaker 1: starters in the year last year, so that the Charges
23:06
Speaker 1: beat them that's kind of a throwaway. But in a
23:08
Speaker 1: game that they both played for real, the Chiefs barely
23:12
Speaker 1: squeaked by So again, that's another reason why I liked
23:14
Speaker 1: their long shot odds in the Super Bowl, because if
23:16
Speaker 1: they play the Chiefs and the playoffs again, that's the
23:19
Speaker 1: third time they've seen them. If any team knows the
23:21
Speaker 1: weaknesses of the Chiefs to anyone better than them, I
23:23
Speaker 1: would like to hear what those teams are because I
23:24
Speaker 1: don't believe. I think it's one of those things where
23:27
Speaker 1: divisional teams they know these teams where they want else.
23:29
Speaker 1: So it's just great value if you really believe the
23:32
Speaker 1: Chargers team. Well, look, you mentioned Brendan Staley, and you
23:35
Speaker 1: mentioned you liked it because you know he's a defensive coach.
23:39
Speaker 1: I actually thought it was a really interesting choice to
23:41
Speaker 1: bring him in, uh, from the from the Rams, where
23:45
Speaker 1: he coached a defense that played so incredibly well and
23:47
Speaker 1: really changed the personality of that team from what they
23:51
Speaker 1: had been just two years prior. Um I thought it
23:55
Speaker 1: was a mistake to bring in a guy like that,
23:57
Speaker 1: because you really wanted some one who could continue to
24:01
Speaker 1: mold and shape the offense. And justin Herbert because he
24:04
Speaker 1: does seem to have so much talent and was preternaturally
24:07
Speaker 1: mature last year as a quarterback. But more importantly, whether
24:12
Speaker 1: it was offense or defense, the fact they were able
24:15
Speaker 1: to get rid of Anthony Lynn and we did not
24:18
Speaker 1: talk about as as as sort of as unlucky as
24:22
Speaker 1: the Chargers were last year. They were unlucky partially because
24:25
Speaker 1: Anthony we had made so many bad decisions and put
24:28
Speaker 1: them in so many bad spots as far as his
24:30
Speaker 1: clock management and at the end of the games. Yeah,
24:34
Speaker 1: I don't want to be I don't want to be
24:35
Speaker 1: too hard on him because yeah, everyone knows this guy.
24:39
Speaker 1: He was a player's people stay all the time. He
24:42
Speaker 1: was the players coach um and that failed him in
24:46
Speaker 1: many ways last year, Like he just did stupid things constantly,
24:50
Speaker 1: and again I want to shoot on him as all
24:52
Speaker 1: all I want to, But we saw with Morty Shawn Ei.
24:55
Speaker 1: I mean how many years ago was that that they
24:58
Speaker 1: just have not The Chargers have had bad luck. It
25:01
Speaker 1: feels like ch had my whole life, Like they literally
25:03
Speaker 1: had prime Folk Rivers, Prime la Danian Thomason, and prime
25:08
Speaker 1: Antonio Gates. I don't think they were made out of
25:10
Speaker 1: the second round of the playoffs. So I just think
25:13
Speaker 1: that if anything's gonna break all this crap open it,
25:16
Speaker 1: it's this team here because they just again you talked
25:19
Speaker 1: about that Rams defense. It's the same exact kind of defense.
25:22
Speaker 1: Its Stars and Scrubs kind of defense. They don't have
25:24
Speaker 1: as much depth as uh the Rams did a D line,
25:27
Speaker 1: but I just all these things feel like it's lining
25:30
Speaker 1: up perfectly for this Chargers team. Well, you nailed it.
25:34
Speaker 1: As a reminder, I'm not just an annoying host. I've
25:37
Speaker 1: been covering the sports betting world for many, many years,
25:41
Speaker 1: and I can tell our listeners that when North Turner
25:44
Speaker 1: was the coach of the then San Diego Chargers, there
25:48
Speaker 1: were two coaches in the NFL that wise guys believed
25:51
Speaker 1: had an impact on the game positive year negatively, and
25:54
Speaker 1: incorporated that into their handicap into their power ratings. Bill
25:58
Speaker 1: Belichick positively was worth about a point. North Turner negatively
26:02
Speaker 1: it was worth about a point. That's how bad people
26:06
Speaker 1: thought north Turner was is that they were downgrading the
26:09
Speaker 1: Chargers only based on him. There are no other coaches
26:12
Speaker 1: that are gonna make that much of a difference that handicappers,
26:14
Speaker 1: that professional betters like Simon are actually accounting for their
26:18
Speaker 1: decision making in their handicap. You want to hear my
26:22
Speaker 1: number one is Romeo Cornell. I thought any time that
26:25
Speaker 1: guy was coaching, I had to fade him right away,
26:28
Speaker 1: and then slowly Adam Gay started to pass to him.
26:31
Speaker 1: Um as one of these guys I love to fade.
26:34
Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you. There are just certain
26:36
Speaker 1: coaches that, no matter what, you grade them at a
26:38
Speaker 1: negative but you grade them at a negative. But are
26:41
Speaker 1: there coaches right now in the NFL where when you
26:44
Speaker 1: are doing your power ratings you add or subtract points
26:48
Speaker 1: because of them? Or that's just sort of you know,
26:51
Speaker 1: if they're coaching on the sideline instinctively, you've got an edge. No,
26:55
Speaker 1: And I tell you all the time. I my to
26:57
Speaker 1: me and football the most important positions quarterback for the
27:00
Speaker 1: number for how much you great out to a team.
27:02
Speaker 1: The second one is head coach. It's it never happens.
27:06
Speaker 1: Bad coaches never win super Bowls. It just does not
27:09
Speaker 1: happen in this in this day and aging anymore. Like
27:12
Speaker 1: you can think of guy is an idiot, but maybe
27:14
Speaker 1: he's great with people. He's just not a good head coach.
27:16
Speaker 1: Like people always say, what the hell does what if
27:18
Speaker 1: the hell does Tomlin do for the Pittsburgh Steelers. We
27:21
Speaker 1: talked about the time chat. The guy has never had
27:22
Speaker 1: a losing season. That man has never been below five
27:25
Speaker 1: hundred his entire time in Pittsburgh. Let me greatest of
27:28
Speaker 1: all time, look at your work. You don't need to
27:30
Speaker 1: be a great offensive mine. You don't need to be
27:31
Speaker 1: a great defensive mine. All these guys can bring different
27:35
Speaker 1: things to the tail with these different style of coaches,
27:37
Speaker 1: like it all depends on what kind of guys they are,
27:39
Speaker 1: So for me going to this season, I would say
27:42
Speaker 1: the two lowest coaches I have greater right now is
27:45
Speaker 1: Kingsbury and Zach Taylor. These are two guys I will
27:47
Speaker 1: be fading a lot this upcoming season, so definitely something
27:50
Speaker 1: to keep in mind when you're betting these different teams. Well,
27:53
Speaker 1: please refer to the last episode of the podcast for
27:55
Speaker 1: our rant and rave on Cliff Kingsbury for producer Matt Mitchell.
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29:29
Speaker 1: all right. You and I had talked about this earlier
29:32
Speaker 1: in the year. Teddy Bridgewater goes to the Broncos Um
29:35
Speaker 1: Drew Lock had been the quarterback there. We had made
29:37
Speaker 1: a lot of bets on the Broncos last year. We
29:39
Speaker 1: lived and died by Drew Lock, and at the very
29:43
Speaker 1: end of the year it paid off for us, but
29:44
Speaker 1: mostly it might have cost us from going twenty four
29:47
Speaker 1: in the the pick up contest callers, Yeah, it definitely
29:53
Speaker 1: probably lost us tens of thousands of dollars UM Broncos
29:57
Speaker 1: fifty one to one in the conference. Fe didn't want
30:00
Speaker 1: Super Bowl twenty two, Conference six to one, Division seven
30:03
Speaker 1: and a half season win total. I gotta bet the
30:06
Speaker 1: over on this because of Teddy Bridgewater. I feel like
30:10
Speaker 1: he doesn't get the credit he deserves as a guy
30:13
Speaker 1: who can manage it. And their talent is just much
30:16
Speaker 1: better to talk about getting better by by injured guys
30:20
Speaker 1: coming back. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy proved he can be
30:24
Speaker 1: an all world receiver. Von Miller comes back right Like,
30:28
Speaker 1: this is a team that gets stronger just by having
30:31
Speaker 1: the players they normally have on the field. Don't do it, chat,
30:37
Speaker 1: don't do what everyone's drinking the kool Ai. Don't be
30:39
Speaker 1: one of those people drinking the Denver cool aid covers.
30:42
Speaker 1: Teddy covers. We did the fantasy draft. People are talking
30:45
Speaker 1: about they moved up UM Denver players last night because
30:48
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgemard was a starting quarterback. As if this guy
30:50
Speaker 1: didn't just throw fifteen touchdowns last year. It's like, what
30:53
Speaker 1: do we What are we doing here? It's like, I
30:56
Speaker 1: get it, Teddy Bridgewater is Alex Smith. They're pretty much
30:59
Speaker 1: the same him. That kind of the NFL player where
31:01
Speaker 1: it's like they're not gonna kill you, but they're also
31:04
Speaker 1: not setting the world on fire, which again, that could
31:06
Speaker 1: be really beneficial to Denver, but to me, he's not
31:10
Speaker 1: one of these guys that again, he covers. I'm with
31:14
Speaker 1: you on that. He he isn't. He is great at covering.
31:17
Speaker 1: He's just not consistent. And that's what I need in
31:19
Speaker 1: the NFL. I need someone to be consistent. I need
31:21
Speaker 1: someone to be healthy and two things he's not that
31:23
Speaker 1: great at. It's being healthy and being consistent. So I mean,
31:26
Speaker 1: it feels like Teddy's been in the NFL now for
31:28
Speaker 1: seven six seven years and I think he's only played
31:30
Speaker 1: three full seasons. He's never for more than fifteen touchdowns
31:34
Speaker 1: on those three seasons. Um, that's pretty alarming. I get it.
31:37
Speaker 1: He can eat a mobile quarterback, but again, I think
31:40
Speaker 1: Herbert through twenty seven touchdowns last year and his rookie year,
31:44
Speaker 1: what are we talking about here? So that's that's the
31:46
Speaker 1: hardest part here, is like I gotta be that guy
31:48
Speaker 1: to come here and kind of smack down the good vibes.
31:50
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Denver. It's incredible talent. I love that
31:53
Speaker 1: they picked Teddy over Drew Lock. That was definitely a
31:56
Speaker 1: smart move by then, but it doesn't do enough for me.
31:58
Speaker 1: It kind of feels like that's one of the things
32:00
Speaker 1: they're just treading water until next year where they can
32:01
Speaker 1: get Aaron Rodgers. It feels like one of those teams
32:04
Speaker 1: that even they don't believe they really have a chance
32:06
Speaker 1: this year. So for me, I'm just not putting any
32:09
Speaker 1: stake into Denver. But next year's Super Bowl futures, that's
32:12
Speaker 1: something I'm in. In In February, keep this in mind, Denver,
32:14
Speaker 1: they're gonna be like four you to one next year.
32:16
Speaker 1: Hit that before they get Rodgers. You're already planning. I
32:20
Speaker 1: love that. It's like this is how you get in early, right,
32:23
Speaker 1: this is this is like you're you're the Broncos. Are
32:26
Speaker 1: next year's crypto punk. That's what it is. It's pretty
32:31
Speaker 1: much out. That's honestly how I look at this stuff,
32:32
Speaker 1: where it's like I might not love him right now,
32:35
Speaker 1: but like next year, I'm already thinking about what they
32:37
Speaker 1: could have. So today there was a story that Mark Davis,
32:43
Speaker 1: the owner of the Raiders, is building a fifteen thousand
32:46
Speaker 1: square foot house in the suburbs of Nevada that is
32:51
Speaker 1: meant to replicate the Raiders training facility, both of which
32:56
Speaker 1: look a little bit like some futuristic Death Star Darth
33:01
Speaker 1: Vader headquarters. All I could think was people in their money.
33:08
Speaker 1: That's it, Like, like, why else do you do that?
33:12
Speaker 1: Why else do you spend fourteen million dollars unless it's
33:15
Speaker 1: just like I got too much. I don't have to
33:16
Speaker 1: do with it. Not even that. Can you imagine building
33:19
Speaker 1: a house that's all black in the middle of the desert. Again,
33:23
Speaker 1: I don't know how what is What do you think
33:26
Speaker 1: is like a c bill? Is it has to be
33:27
Speaker 1: like a couple of ten grand maybe twenty grand a
33:29
Speaker 1: month with the whole house that's black. And yet the
33:32
Speaker 1: guy refuses to spend on a haircut let me come on,
33:38
Speaker 1: or refuses to stop his coach that he overpays because
33:43
Speaker 1: he was really good as an announcer on Monday Night
33:45
Speaker 1: football from trading the single best player on his team
33:49
Speaker 1: named Khalil Mack, who he is now desperate to get
33:51
Speaker 1: back because he realizes oh ship the rest of my
33:54
Speaker 1: team is pretty good. And as you point out, Simon,
33:57
Speaker 1: Derek Carr isn't that bad either, And if he only
33:59
Speaker 1: had somebody who could stop somebody on the defensive side
34:03
Speaker 1: of the ball, they might have a shot to make
34:05
Speaker 1: the playoffs in their division. Explain your Derek Carr uh
34:09
Speaker 1: love right now. And again that's why, like I tried,
34:12
Speaker 1: have to shoot on Grouten too much, because he still
34:14
Speaker 1: got it in some ways, like he I watched film.
34:18
Speaker 1: He'll run plays that we ran in the seventies and eighties,
34:21
Speaker 1: which again we're gonna laugh about. Oh look at these
34:24
Speaker 1: old ass plays he's running. They work because defenses have
34:26
Speaker 1: no idea, they've never seen him before. And he does
34:29
Speaker 1: little things like that that I love. And again we
34:32
Speaker 1: can talk about how good he is at a scout talent.
34:34
Speaker 1: His defense is trash. Okay, him and may Doc cannot
34:37
Speaker 1: draft defensive players if their life's depended on it. I'm
34:40
Speaker 1: with you on that. Okay, they're terrible at drafting defensive players.
34:43
Speaker 1: There's also a team that picked up Waller, who turned
34:45
Speaker 1: out to be an absolute stud. When Baltimore got rid
34:47
Speaker 1: of him, they drafted Hunter Renfro, who I think is
34:50
Speaker 1: a really good slot receiver and they got him late
34:53
Speaker 1: to their offense is actually pretty good. They got a
34:56
Speaker 1: lot of pieces there that are pretty dang good. And
35:00
Speaker 1: like you just said that Khalil Mack thing, it didn't
35:02
Speaker 1: make sense because they traded him for three three draft picks.
35:06
Speaker 1: None of those draft picks have worked out or even
35:08
Speaker 1: become close to being the player Khalil Mack is. And
35:11
Speaker 1: that's what I think. He kind of got a little
35:13
Speaker 1: lesson in where it's like he thought he was gonna
35:15
Speaker 1: come in, you know, make big changes to get a
35:16
Speaker 1: lot of draft capital. He was able to find talent
35:18
Speaker 1: in the different positions, but it just does not work
35:22
Speaker 1: that way. So when I'm looking this team, I'm not
35:25
Speaker 1: here to tell you that, yeah, they're gonna win this division,
35:27
Speaker 1: They're gonna make the playoffs. I'm going to talk about
35:30
Speaker 1: the different things you can find value with their car
35:33
Speaker 1: right now. Again, we have an article coming out either
35:35
Speaker 1: this week or next week with my favorite long shots.
35:37
Speaker 1: He's thirty eight to one to lead the league in
35:39
Speaker 1: passing yards. I kind of like that value. Derek Carr
35:42
Speaker 1: plays an indoor for Las Vegas for half his games
35:45
Speaker 1: and then on the road a lot of these teams
35:47
Speaker 1: just playing against don't have that great defenses, and they're
35:50
Speaker 1: playing a last place schedule as well. So I'm not
35:53
Speaker 1: saying Derek Carr is a top ten quarterback any measurement,
35:55
Speaker 1: but I think this guy is enough talent and there's
35:58
Speaker 1: really enough pieces there that he could lead the league
36:00
Speaker 1: in passing at one that's really good value, and I
36:03
Speaker 1: would take that chance. I'm not gonna tell you guys
36:05
Speaker 1: about them super Bowl. I'm definitely not gonna tell you
36:07
Speaker 1: guys about them win this division, and I'm not gonna
36:10
Speaker 1: tell you to bet them season win totals. But I
36:13
Speaker 1: will tell you Week one, Opening Night, Monday Night Football, Chad,
36:20
Speaker 1: we we kind of love them. We we kind of
36:22
Speaker 1: love We don't bet Monday for the contest. So that's
36:24
Speaker 1: the only thing holding me back right now. We really
36:25
Speaker 1: don't do Mondays for the contest. But man opening Night
36:30
Speaker 1: in that stadium against the Ravens overvalued Ravens. Oh, it's
36:35
Speaker 1: gonna be very tempting. It's gonna be really hard the
36:39
Speaker 1: first time fans are in that stadium, you know they're there.
36:43
Speaker 1: As much as we can make fun of Mark Davis
36:45
Speaker 1: and and that world generally, there is something very special
36:50
Speaker 1: about Raiders fans. Raiders fans who had no chance to
36:53
Speaker 1: see their team in the first year in brand new
36:55
Speaker 1: stadium last year. Right now, I'm looking at that line
37:00
Speaker 1: the Action Network gap. It's free. The Las Vegas Raiders
37:05
Speaker 1: um are plus four. Wow, so that's moving. It was
37:11
Speaker 1: five five and a half, so that's moving people. That's
37:13
Speaker 1: moving down. Let me let me see, let me make
37:17
Speaker 1: sure that I'm getting the right one four and a
37:19
Speaker 1: half at at fandel it's four and a half. So
37:24
Speaker 1: it's not bad. That's not bad at all. And it's
37:28
Speaker 1: again I'm not here to say I think the Raiders
37:30
Speaker 1: are a better team than the Ravens. Cha Chad will
37:33
Speaker 1: explain to you people. We we do weird things all season.
37:36
Speaker 1: If you're near to the show, we bet ugly. We
37:39
Speaker 1: have things called big Big Balls Better the Week. We
37:41
Speaker 1: have Foxhold Bets of the Week. We do a lot
37:43
Speaker 1: of stuff here that can make you feel very uncomfortable.
37:46
Speaker 1: But that's how we win. And that's like, that's the
37:48
Speaker 1: who point of this show is. That's why I wanted
37:49
Speaker 1: to do. It's like no one wins every year betting
37:52
Speaker 1: all these favorites minus three minus four, like that's just
37:55
Speaker 1: not how it works. You have to take these ugly
37:57
Speaker 1: dogs and that's that's where you're gonna make your money.
37:59
Speaker 1: So I'm down on Vegas just because I don't think
38:02
Speaker 1: they have the defense this year. But in fantasy and
38:05
Speaker 1: in the gambling spirit, over under it's like, like, you know,
38:08
Speaker 1: I'll be betting this team's overs a lot of times,
38:11
Speaker 1: Like if they're playing the Chiefs and they're overs fifty,
38:14
Speaker 1: I'm taking that over. Every every day, I'm taking that over.
38:17
Speaker 1: So I'm trying to get people to understand here that
38:21
Speaker 1: this offense is way better than people realize. So just
38:24
Speaker 1: don't don't just overlook Oakland just because Gruden's kind of
38:27
Speaker 1: become a joke this this team still has a lot
38:29
Speaker 1: of talent on it, or because they've moved to Las Vegas.
38:33
Speaker 1: Damn it. Let me summarize Kansas City. We like under
38:41
Speaker 1: twelve Los Angeles Chargers super Bowl thirty three to one.
38:47
Speaker 1: Go but maybe wait because Sam and also think they
38:50
Speaker 1: might lose to Washington the first week and you'll get
38:52
Speaker 1: better odds after week one. Sixteen to one Conference go
38:55
Speaker 1: four fifty. Uh for plus four fifty to win the division,
38:59
Speaker 1: go over nine, go a little bit on them to
39:02
Speaker 1: be the number one seed. Check your local book. It's
39:04
Speaker 1: it's really good value. Oh that's a good one too,
39:06
Speaker 1: all right, Denver is a pass all the way around.
39:09
Speaker 1: There's nothing there the Las Vegas Raiders. We don't like
39:13
Speaker 1: any of the odds on anything, but we do like
39:15
Speaker 1: Derek Carr thirty eight to one, A little taste, Little taste,
39:20
Speaker 1: Little sprinkle one. Uh to throw for the most yards
39:25
Speaker 1: in the NFL this year. I love it, dude. We
39:30
Speaker 1: covered all thirty two teams. Who's to be done? We
39:35
Speaker 1: got through all thirty two teams, which means, um, next
39:39
Speaker 1: week we start making picks. Baby, we get back to
39:41
Speaker 1: who we are. We get picking. And if you again
39:45
Speaker 1: and check, keep talking abody. If you're new here, we
39:48
Speaker 1: came in twenty four place sixt the season. We're pretty
39:54
Speaker 1: good at what we do here, Chad, So we are
39:55
Speaker 1: very good. Please check out the keep listening to the
39:58
Speaker 1: show all season. If you're into making five picks every week,
40:00
Speaker 1: we are very good at it. Uh. And don't forget
40:03
Speaker 1: Simon has offered to give away one of his four
40:06
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the year UH to anyone giving a
40:10
Speaker 1: five star review. We will make the choice. It will
40:12
Speaker 1: be randomly chosen by Matt Mitchell, the producer, but someone
40:17
Speaker 1: will win that. All you gotta do is go give
40:20
Speaker 1: a five star review of the podcast and you can
40:22
Speaker 1: make fun of me or chat if I laugh at it.
40:24
Speaker 1: I'm all the laughing at myself. I mean, look at me,
40:26
Speaker 1: look at the space. You need to laugh at yourself.
40:27
Speaker 1: By the way, last year we did this every single week.
40:30
Speaker 1: We were giving away prizes to people every single week
40:32
Speaker 1: for reviews. The reviews were hilarious. We love to laugh
40:35
Speaker 1: at ourselves. Yeah, so please let me be your punching bag.
40:39
Speaker 1: As long as we laugh, you can still win. That's right.
40:41
Speaker 1: As long as we laugh in it's five stars, you
40:43
Speaker 1: can win. Yeah. Uh for Simon Hunter, I am Chad Nolan.
40:47
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network.
40:50
Speaker 1: Download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple podcast, go rate, review,
40:53
Speaker 1: subscribe wherever you get your podcast. We'll be back on
40:56
Speaker 1: Tuesday with our first look at our five picks for
41:00
Speaker 1: the NFL Season twenty one. Until then, I love you,