Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Tariffs; Meta; ABC; Russia; Economy; China AI; Publishing; Antitrust; Achievements| Yaron Brook Show

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Tariffs; Meta; ABC; Russia; Economy; China AI; Publishing; Antitrust; Achievements| Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: A lot of this is show. All right, everybody welcome
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: tore One book show on this Tuesday, August eighteenth. Everybody's
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: doing well, it's late over here in Barcelona. It's it's
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: uh nine pm. But we will we will do a show.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I might actually do Jama show a little early, so
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: maybe tomorrow's will be one pm Eastern time. I'll uh,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: we will see, we will see. I'll try to give
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: you a little bit of heads up on that, but
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I might try to do it early so they can
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: do something tomorrow evening. All right, let's see, yeah, I mean,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: we might as well just start with the president President
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: President Trump out there fighting for America, defending us against
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: our enemies, making sure that our enemies don't get an
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: upper hand on us, and you know, negotiating, being a
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: tough negotiator with with our enemies, and and and trying
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: to try to force them. Volume of voice is a
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: little low. Volume of voice is a little row No,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: it's not, uh, is he the only one? Andrew? Is
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Andrew the only one who's hearing this a little low?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Because all my all the measures on my thing are
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: going crazy like this as if it's really really loud.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So let me know if my voice is low or
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: not quickly, somebody let me know. All right. Anyway, Trump
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: is out there defending America, fighting the bad guys and
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: and setting deadlines. And there's a there's a there's a
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: big deadline, big deadline tonight tonight because the enemy up north,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: those Canadians. You got to watch those Canadians. We've got
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: to protect ourselves against Canadians. They want to sell us stuff.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: They want to sell us stuff, stuff cheap. And Trump
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: is having none of that. He's using he's using smooth Holly.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: You remember smooth Holly. Smooth Holly was that tariff bill
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: was passed in nineteen thirty. Anyway, he's using section three
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: three eight of the Tariff Act of nineteen thirty of
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: smoot Holly, which has never been used team post tariffs
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: on a trading project, never, but Trump is going to
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: use it to smack fifty percent tariffs on twenty billion
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: dollars worth of goods coming to America because Americans want
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: to buy that stuff from the Canadians. He's going to
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: protect us on ourselves because you don't know what you're buying.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: You're buying that Canadian stuff. It's bad for you. The
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Canadians are smuggling and all kinds of bad ideas in
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the stuff that you buy. And anyway, I think it's
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: midnight tonight. The Canadians are frantic to try to get
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: the US not to impose these tariffs. I wish the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Canadians would just tell the Americans go to help. They
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: should tell the United States that if the United States
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: wants to shoot itself in the knee, go ahead and
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: do it. Go ahead and post the taps. If you
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: want to raise the cost of living on Americans at
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: a time of inflation. There's actually run ads in American
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: TV Donald Trump raising the cost of your of living.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: We could be selling you cheap stuff, and he won't
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: let us. And they should. They su stop negotiating with Trump,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: and they should, unilaterally, this would be amazing, unilaterally declare
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Canada an island of free trade. They should unilaterally say
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: we in Canada understand the principles that Adam Smith wrote
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: about two hundred and fifty years ago. We in Canada
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: get it. We get it. We get the benefits, the
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: win win, the mutually beneficial benefits of trade. And therefore
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: we in Canada are going to lower tariffs to zero,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: and we don't care what you Americans do. You want
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: to screw yourself over, screw yourself over. If you want
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: to raise your cost of living and lower your quality
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: of life and lower your standard living, go for it.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Have a blast. We in Canada are not going to
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: play this game. We're not going to play with you.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: We're going to ignore you. We'll buy your chief stuff
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: all day long. Send us your chief stuff. That would
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: be the rational he can not best most economically seene
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: response the Canadians could actually engage in instead the frantic
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: you know. And Donald Trump is playing with him as
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: he as he always does when he when he sees
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: this kind of stuff, and he, you know, so he's
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: again threatening to absorb Canada and make it the fifty
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: first state of the United States, which is never was
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: never funny and only becomes less funny with time. Supposedly,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Trump and Connie are speaking right now, right now, so
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Connie is still trying to somehow salvage this and get
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: rid of the tasks. Remember this is this is all
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: because the Trump administration is refusing to renew the twenty
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: twenty trade deal that Trump negotiated with Canada and Mexico
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: then established relatively free trade between US, Canada, and Mexico,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: and that it has benefited all three countries tremendously. Trump
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: doesn't like it, even though he negotiated it. It's not
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: a good deal. At the time he said it was
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: the best deal in history. Not a good deal anymore.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: He likes tariff small and tafts have been a failed
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: strategy so far, and he's just doubling up on it.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: And he's got this cost of living crisis. The supposed
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: to Americas care about cost of living, and one way
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: to reduce the cost of living is to open up
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: America's borders to feign trade. Lower twists to zero, and
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the cost of living of Americans will go down. I
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: guarantee it. Prices will go down, particularly if you go
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: to zero. God, can you imagine America, the United States
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: of America doing something we've never done in our Intawai history,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: entire history as a nation. Although before Trump we got
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: close unilaterally, lowering twists to zero would be it would
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: be amazing, amazing. Andrew says, is it our trade deficit
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the same as pre Trump? Yeah, it may be a
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: little higher, maybe a little lower, depending on the month.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: But of an annual basis, it's about the same. No,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: taists make it worse, they don't make it better. This
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: is no no, no, no, no upside to tell. It's
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: a tax. It's a tax. It's a discriminatory it's a
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: discriminatory sales tax that discriminates in favor of some companies
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: in some industries as against others. In that sense, it's
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: really really you know, bad, because it is more than
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: any of the tax. It is a It is a
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: tax that encourages cronyism, and did from the very beginning,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I mean the first, the first the first tariff in
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: American history was seventeen ninety six, so one of the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: first law or eight six or eight, and it was
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: one of the first laws passed by Congress. And immediately
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: you get to you get coroneism. Immediately after that, you
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: get croniism, and you get croneism because companies realize and
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: politicians realize that they can hand companies favors, they can
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: raise tariffs on goods that certain companies would like because
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: it reduces competition. And so you can raise some tariffs,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: lower some tasks, and you can play with that. And
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that's the first lever the American federal government had over
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: American businesses, and it milked it for all it was worth,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: for all it was worth. Anyway, we've launced nothing from
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: a history and yep, so this is all a consequence
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: of tais last year's tariffs, which resulted in Canadian provinces
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: banning American alcohol in response to US tariffs. So now
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the US is saying, if you don't eliminate the bands
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: and alcohol, we're going to put fifty percent tariffs on you.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: But that was in response to the twists that the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: US imposed. Originally, US t haves have been imposed in
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Canadian corset steel, aluminum, frost products and yeah, but to
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: oppose the fifty percent tariffs is the products listed in
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: twelve pages. So I don't know how many products. That
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: is a lot over one hundred. And basically what they're
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: trying to do is is destroy certain explot businesses out
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of Canada, and Canada should embrace that and just accept
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: it and figure out how to get around it and
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: find other export markets and again lower tasks to zero
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: and encourage trade with other countries. Forget the United States.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: It's not worth it. We elect Trump. We deserve a
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: high cost of living. We deserve, you know, not to
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: have access to Canadian goods at a reasonable price. It's
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: too bad. The Canadians might compromise with Trump in some
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: way to make this go away, but we'll know by
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: mid nineteen night, well know, by midnight to night. And
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: again I find it incredibly funny and amusing and sad
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: and pathetic in all of that that Trump is using
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: a smooth holly, smooth holly that was a disaster and
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: recognized by almost everybody as an unmitigated disaster in you know,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: during the Great Depression. But this is the bill, this
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: is the law that Trump is using. And of course
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Canada is not our enemy. I know, it's weird. I
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: have to say that Hannay used to be our ally.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: It's probably not our ally anymore because we've alienated so much.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: It's not an enemy. There's no threat coming from Canada.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: All right, We've got a bunch of stories today. We're
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: going to go through them pretty quickly because none of
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: them require huge in depth analysis. So we're going to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: go through a lot of stories quickly. Also, it's late
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: over here. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, the parent
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: company of Facebook, is facing a huge day in court,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: a huge day in court. They are being sued by
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the attorney generals of California, Colorado, Kentucky, and New Jersey.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So this is like red and blue states joining together
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to go after Meta, to go after Facebook. The state
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: attorney generals are going to begin presenting a case where
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: they are alleging that Meta deliberately used, deliberately used infinite score,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: infinite score. You know what that is. We scoll and
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: school and school and score and more and more videos
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: and more and more stuff keeps coming up AutoPlay, the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: video starts immediately, notifications and in oh god, forbid engagement algorithms,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, to encourage compulsive use by minors. Twenty
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: five additional states of related cases waiting, So we're talking
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: about pretty much more than half the stags suing Meta.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: The plaintiffs seek more than one trillion to two trillion dollars,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and they're claiming that these particular design choices in finance
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: call utoplay, notification engagement algorithms are linked to particular mental
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: health injuries. At least, that's what they're gonna have to do.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: You're gonna have to prove that these particular features are
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: causal causally related to particular mental health injuries. It's not
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: about whether social media is bad, but whether the company
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: can be held liable for knowingly designing a product to
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: exploit children while misrepresenting its risks. Uh, you know, it's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: it's it's pretty pretty amazing, right, According to Deputy Attorney
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: General for the State of California, she says, what you're
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: going to hear in this trial is a meta hooked
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: hooked children on its platforms. It designed platforms so that
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: children would keep coming back. Yeah, I mean Bobby did
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the same thing. And what is a g I Joe?
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Was a g I Joe? I mean, if you ever
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: played Monopoly, If you ever played Monopoly, I mean seriously
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: played Monopoly, it's so freaking addictive. Once you stopped playing it,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you like want to play it again because you want
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: to do better next time. But you want to play
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: it again, you want to play it again. I remember
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: there was a period in my life where I played
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: bridge a lot, and I would dream bridge. I would
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: close my eyes and see cards and I all I
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: wanted to do in my You know, this was in
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: high school, and it was not good for my studies.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: All I want to do is play Bridge. I was
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: completely hooked on Bridge. I mean, we should find the
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: event to Bridge and sew because he hooked me in Bridge.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: And I'm sure, I'm sure there was some mental health
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: issues there. I'm sure I suffered and and and and
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I'm sure there's something I could suit him over, although
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: statute of limitations might have passed. One trillion dollars. Now,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: remember this is a this is going to be a
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: federal lawsuit in the Federal court House in Oakland, California.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: This is after a few months after Meta lost a
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: billion dollars in a New Mexico state court when it
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: was sued by a particular individual. And they're like two
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: hundred other cases like that pending, So they could be
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: losing two hundred billion dollars just to pay off the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: losses and particular people who are claiming mental health injury, injury.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So one trillion dollars this lawsuit, another twenty five stage waiting.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: It's the end of Facebook. The Attorney General from California
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: previewed internal documents. She said the plaintiffs intended to show.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: One of them was a conversation between two metal employees
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: in which one said oh my gosh, y'all ig is
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: a drug. Instagram is a drug. The coworker responded, Lol,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I mean all the social media well basically pushes. So
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: this is you know, engineers kidding around on the platform,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: and it's going to be legal proof, legal proof. Now
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: is the infinite school and this stuff? Is it addictive? Yeah?
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: It is. I sometimes find myself, you know, looking at
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: short videos on YouTube and whips in like ten minutes
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: have gone by, fifteen minutes have gone by. I have
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: to say, oh, I need to stop, and I stop
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: because you know what I have? I have something unique.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe only I have it, maybe none of you guys
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: have it, maybe nobody else has it. Free will, the
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: capacity to stop. Oh but children, you say children. Children
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: don't have free will. You can't addict children. This is
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: really bad. That's what parents are for. Not matter. Matter
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: is not the parents. Mana is not a parent. I'm
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: not sure why parents give kids iPhones, why they let
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: them school infinitely as much as they want. Yes, that's
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: not good, but that's a meta's fault. That's a parent's fault.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Take some frigging responsibility over your kids and over your
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: own behavior. Stop looking escapegoats. For everything. I couldn't help it.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Meta designed it so I couldn't help it. They designed it,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I would be addicted. It's like Heroine when I stopped
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: by Shake all over. They're also going to show a
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: document in which Meta set its products exploit weaknesses in
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the human psychology. There was a study Meta I'll put together. Yes, yes, yes,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: of course it does. Every time a store designs their
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: window with the most appealing colors and the most appealing
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: you know, a particular I don't know, clothes in particular design,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: they are trying to exploit weaknesses in human psychology and
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: get people to enter the store. As I said before,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Matter is facing thousands of lawsuits for more than forty
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: state attorneys, general, school districts, individual social media users. How
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: do how do you join one of these lawsuits? Can
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: we get in on it? Maybe the von books show
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: consume them for I don't know, for something, for making
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Facebook unusable for me anyway. So far, Matter has lost
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: two such civil cases that went to trial, the one
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: in New Mexico and another one in Las ane Angelus,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: and it's going to appeel both verticts. So we'll see
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: what happens with those in Los Angeles case, the woman
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: wont six million dollars for Meta six million, and the
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: woman in New Mexico won one billion. Something's wrong. It's
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a huge injustice. There's real inequality in these verdicts. Meta
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: settled another case in Kentucky school with the Kentucky School
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: District and a FLAWEDA team dropped this case last month
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: without receiving payment, which was reviewed as a win for Meta.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: A similar trial brought by Tennessee's attorney general is also
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: playing out in that state, the results of which could
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: cause ripple effects across the country. Losing several state attorney
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: general cases would make it more difficult for Meta to
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: say the verdicts isolated incidents and could create significant problems
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: for its business model. So basically, they're trying to drive
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Facebook out of business. It's I mean. As part of
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the remedies for the New Mexico trial, a judge ordered
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Matter to create a five hundred and sixty seven billion
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: abatement fund and to limit the amount of time that
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: young people could spend on this app. The company must
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: turn off push notifications on teens accounts overnight and by
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: default high the number of likes on photos. The judge
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: said in his order, So we're now getting not parental oversight,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: parental supervision. We're now getting the state. We're now getting judges,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: you know, telling how companies how to run themselves, what
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: is acceptable for people to see and what is not
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: acceptable for people to see. A company fighting back, ABC
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: is suing the Federal Communication Commission on First Amendment grounds
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: great great, the challenging the FCC's broadcast licenses. FCC is
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: challenging ABC's broadcast licenses. I think of nine of its channels.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: They're doing early reviews of it, and ABC is claiming
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: that this is this is uh, They're doing this because
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: they don't like opinions expressed by some ABC hosts. The
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: lawsuit seeks to stop an extraordinary early review of eight
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: ABC station licenses ordered years before their normal expiration dates.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: The FCC sites ABC's diversity practices and broadcasters public interest obligations,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: whatever the hell that is. ABC points to Trump's repeated
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: licensed threats and the timing after Jimmy Kimmel angered him.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: The evidence establishes government, you know, government pressure in an
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: unusual dilitory proceeding, whether it constitution unconstitutional viewpoint, retaliation is
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: not for the court to decide. But that is an
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: important and good move by ABC. I mean they are
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: they're fighting back. They're fighting back. FCC Chairman Berendan Carr
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: and ally of Trump's ordered the review in April, right
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: very Rare ordered this review of eight licenses owned by
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: ABC well before they were set to expire. Excited the
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: next proecast, I said, the diversity and so on, But
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: it just it came right after Kimo and Trump saying
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: he would he would review the licenses of ABC. According
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: to the network in its lawsuit, again and again, the
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: administration has attacked the ABC speech, the stories its journalist report,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: and the viewpoints its network programs. Over time, these attacks
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: have escalated into express demands that ABC restripts of its
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: broadcast licenses because of its speech. Facing this existential threat,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: plaintiffs have no choice but to seek redress for the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: judicial branch for the administration's blatant retaliation for their First
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Amendment speech. In addition, said ABC had quote no alternative
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: means to eliminate these ongoing and immediate threats other than
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: total capitulation to the administration demands. It asked the court
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: to quote immediately enjoy defendants from taking or threatening to
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: take any action against plaintiff in retaliation to early license
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: renewal applications. So good for them. I absolutely think it's
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: a First Amendment violation. Absolutely think Trump is out of
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: line by threatening them. I thought this when he did
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: it in the first administration. I think it's now it's
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: about time, you know, somebody stood up to him on
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: First Amendment grounds. Uh. You know, ABC's US are fighting
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: with Carl with FCC roud cause the efforts to make
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: the morning talk show The View, whose hosts, of course
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: are very critical of Trump subject to equal time rules, right,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: So you know they're going after ABC. They're going after
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: anybody who disagrees with him. The let's see the lawsuit says,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: And I think this is good. The consequence of the
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: administration's campaign against free speech reach well beyond ABC. If
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: the administration gets its weight, the message every media company
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: in the will be unmistakable. Tell only stories that administration
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: deems favorable, will face the course of machinery of the
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: federal government. In such a world, the press could in
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: no way be described as free. The SEC chairman has
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: left little dell that this is his goal. I mean,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: I'm I am one hundred percent behind FCC, behind sorry
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: not behind FCC by ABC. And I'm really hoping this
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: case gets a lot of press, that it, you know,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: goes to trial, that ABC wins, that it gets appealed.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: I hope it goes to Supreme Court, and I hope
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court rules in favor of ABC. I mean,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: this is good. ABC's not only issued a statement, it's
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: placed to FCC's conduct before an independent court and its
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: requesting and forcible injunction. This is the way the system
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: is supposed to work. This is the constitutional system operating
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: as intended. Now we'll see, we'll see whether the judges
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: or will need to do the right thing or not.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: All right, that was ABC, Right, Russia A couple of
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: stories regarding Russia. One was the other one. Yeah, this
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: is the direction we're heading. I guess. Well, I don't
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: want to exaggerate things, but here's here's here's Russia. A
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Russian court on Monday convicted a prominent opposition politician for
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: speaking out against the One Ukraine and sentenced him to
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: eleven years and one month in prison. So you can't
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: criticize the government, you can't be anti war in Russia,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: you go to jail. The verdictus against Lev Scholesburg, a
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: senior member of the Ya Bloco party, which is the
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: opposition party and a political party that is opposed to
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: the war. Yabloko is the only official political party of
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: rutally opposing the war. In a sepate ruling Monday, Russias
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: have been court upheld its early decision to buy your
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Bloco from the ballot us of eighteenth to twentieth parliamentary vote,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: denying an appeal by the party. So basically, if they
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: speak up against the war, they go to jail and
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: they can't run for parliament. They basically blocked. So we
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: know Russia is an authoritarian state. We know there's no
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: free speech in Russia's we know there's no political freedom
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: in Russia. We know that there's no political opposition in Russia.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: But the Russians keep wanting to prove to show us
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: that yes, you're absolutely right, guys, because I know there
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: are a lot of people out there, people who listen
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: to my show were big Russia fans. They're fans of
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: this Theiritarian thug. They think somehow he's the good guy.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it turns out this Charlesburg has already been
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: This is the second trial, and these particular charges stand
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: for a debate in which he called for ending the
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: war and from his postings on his telegram channel, and
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: that made the front page of a British tabloid. You know,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: he wrote about sorry, he wrote about a picture on
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the British tabloid with a bloodied woman next to one
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: of Russia one of a photo a Putin and he
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: wrote her blood his hands. You can't do that. You
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: can't say that about Putin. You can't attack Putin. That's
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: just you can't do that. You go to jail for
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: ten years for doing that. Well, you get your licenses pulled.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're not quite at the level of sending
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: people to jail in America yet, but if you criticize
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: the president of the United States, you go to jail.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Don't You don't go to jail, you get your license pulled,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: You get your license pulled. It's terrible, It's terrible, all right, God,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: how low you're sinking? Uh? Just another story from Russia.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: The chief economist that one of Russia's largest state run
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: financial institutions, SO Finance Company, has been fired after reportedly
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: warning the country, it would lose a war attrition against Ukraine,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: and the conflict's economic toll would trigger a major crisis.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Andre Pleppach, a former deputy economy minister, was dismissed from
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: his job at state development company VEB on Sunday after
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: comments he made earlier this year were reported in a
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: language in the Russian language media. The movie indicates that
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the Kremlin has zero tolerance for dissent among its elites
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: as Putin's invasion of Ukraine drags on into its fifth year.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Cleppach remarks at a conference in May, reported by the
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Moscow Times on Friday and widely cited in Russian media,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: were unusually frank for a prominent figure speaking in public,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: but echoed concerned by the elites that have been widespread
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: since the war began. I mean, yeah, so it's just
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: you can't do it. He's not going to Jada yet,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: but there's still time. They still might. But basically, you know,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: the firing basically came after a call from a pie
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: to Igo Shuvalov, who runs this outfit. So yeah, this
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: was reported in the Financial Time. What Klipcheck said was
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: that the Russian Russia's economy had begun to contract this year.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: After ward driven boom in twenty twenty three twenty four
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: gave way to shop cuts and investment and an industrial recession,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: which he partly blamed on the Central Bank's high interest rates.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: The one Ukraine quote this is clippatch has already gone
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: on for longer than the Second World War, and there's
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: no end in site for now. Both sides andying their strikes,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: including on each other's economy. Our losses from the Ukraine
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Dawn Forces strikes on our port, oil and gas, chemical
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: and logistics infrastructure are growing, and they're already becoming a
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: noticeable macroeconomic barrier to Russian economic growth. Lepcha said economic
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: woes and tough for Western sanctions would lead to quote
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: social crisis that nobody expects, and he linkened it to
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: the Russian Revolution in nineteen seventeen and the collapse of
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the Soviet Union in nineteen ninety one. Quote. I believe
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: Russia won't collapse, but I'm almost certain we will have
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: a social crisis. Economy won't crash, but our backwardness will intensify. Oh,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: he recognizes they're ready. Backward will intensify. With all the
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: ensuing consequences. So I mean the pessimism among Russians is
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: only intensified and increased as Ukraine drone strikes have basically
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: reached deeper and deeper into Russian territory and affected economic assets.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, right now, they are basically bombing the warehouses
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: of the equivalent of Amazon in Russia, and these massive,
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: huge warehouses are going up in flames, which is incredibly
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: disruptive to people buying stuff online. And of course, you know,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: the Kremlin is spending huge amounts of money and running
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: big deficits. And of course the problem is that while
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: a country like the United States can run deficits at
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: least for a while, we'll get to that in a minute,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: by borrowing money from the world, nobody is going to
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: lend money to the Russians. So you know, they're ALTERNATIVEUS
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: th inflate. This is why interest rates are so high. Yeah,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's the Russian economy, as I've told you,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: is in deep, deep deep trouble. Is deep deep deep trouble,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: and you can't you can't speak up against it. Nope,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: you can't speak up against it. All right, Yeah, let's
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: talk about the economy. I think now is the economy, economy,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: segments economy. Yeah, and here we're talking about the US economy.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: So US debt just hit forty trillion dollars months earlier
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: than expected and at the same time, right, so we're
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: borrowing more money, which means the reason for that is
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: we're running bigger deficits than expected, and therefore we have
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: to borrow a lot more money. And the thing about
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the borrowing is not only are we borrowing a lot
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: more money, but as we'll see, we're borrowing that money
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: at higher and higher interest rates, so that the cost
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: of the debt, that is the interest that you keep
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: paying on the debt, on the debt the government is
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: issues that we are paid by borrowing more by by
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: our taxes that is growing dramatically, and interest payments and
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: annual interest payments on the debt are going to be
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: significantly above one trillion dollars, maybe as high as one
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: point four trillion dollars. This is bigger than the Pentagon budget.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Although Trump does want to pig budget to go to
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: one point five trillion dollars, I don't know how we
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: can afford that. Even the raising the legal limit debt
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: limit is going to happen soon, just like she Last year,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Congress set the debt limit at forty one point one trillion,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: and that's a key trillion. But you know, early next year,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to We're gonna have to maybe late
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: this year, we're going to have to increase that, and
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: that always is a fight in Congress to increase it,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: and you might have a new Congress by then. Right
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: after the election. We're not quite a forty trillion yet,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: we're thirty nine point ninety three trillion. And it's amazing
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: how shop the increases, certainly since COVID, but even before COVID,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, Trump has added enormously to you know, to
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: the debt in his first term and now much more, much, much,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: much more in a second zone. It's really astounding. And
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: how people think of him as somehow good for the economy,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: pro markets or anything like that. You just have to
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: look at the debt. You just have to look at
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: how much money's being spent to see how disastrous his
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: policies are for the year's economy. Trump's already, according to
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: The Washington Post, Trump is already focused on debt limit,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: which is repeatedly plunged Washington into the dangerous game of
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: legislative chicken. Late last month, the President urged the Senate
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: to address the ever looming death ceiling disaster before leaving
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: town in its August recess. It won't, it didn't, but
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: they have to deal it. They'll deal it when they
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: get back. Maybe they'll have to deal with when Congress
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: gates back next year, but at that point Congress might
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: be democratic, and then then they're really squeezed. Frumpston Post
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: reports for the past quarter century, the national debt has
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: grown unto both parties, but it's it's been made worse
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: in the Bush era, the Great Recession, the stimulus packages
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: poster recession that Obama did, and then of course you
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: know tax spending and tax cuts, the two trillion Biden administration,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: stimulus after COVID, and then Trump's even greater expansion post that.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: So it's just it's a never ending it's never ending.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: And the problem with that is that, you know, this
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: could really trigger a real collapse because the more that
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: you have, the higher interstrates go. The higher these interstates go,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: the more expensive the new debt to pay off the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: old debt becomes, and the more money you have to
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: raise you have to borrow in order to pay just
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: the interest on the debt, and it's a spital that
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: is very very hard to control after point and financial
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: markets a really showing science, really showing signs of real concern.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Right the On Monday yesterday, we saw the yield and
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: the thirty year treasury top five point three percent for
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the first time since two thousand and seven, so almost
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: twenty years. Last time it was about four point three percent.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: And that's not just in the United States. Japanese thirty
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: year yields have vision about four percent for the first
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: time in their twenty seventh year history. They didn't have
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: thirty year mounds before that. Well, the equivalent UK guilt
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: yields are the highest since nineteen ninety eight. Now what
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: does that tell you? So long term interest rates thirty
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: year bond grades are the highest they been for many countries,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: so Japan, US, UK at least since the Great Recession
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: started the Great Recession, and in some cases since nin
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: in any aid or ever, that means that it's more
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: and more expensive for the government to bow long term. Now,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: why would investors demand a higher interest rates on long
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: term bonds? Because they believe inflation is coming is or
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: they believe that bonds are now riskier, that is, the
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: government might default on them, the government might not be
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: able to pay them back. Now everybody says, yeah, but
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: the government can always pay them back. They've got a
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: prienting press. Yes, but that's inflation. So you're back to
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: the inflation WARII. Once you hit a certain level of debt,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: the marcuts are going to not want to lend money
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: to you. They're going to say, how are you going
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: to pay this back? How do we know that in
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: ten years when you're supposed to pay this bond back,
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: somebody will lend you enough money to pay us. Because
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: you're not running a soaplus. There's no scenario in which
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: you can imagine the United States running a simplus in
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: ten years. Who would have to be elected president to
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: bring about a suplus in ten years? Like hoam laid me.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not happening. So the market basically says
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: to people who buy these bonds, basically says, if we're
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: going to take the risks that you can't pay this
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: back or that you use your pinting press to pay
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: it back, enus create inflation. We want to be compensated
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: now by higher interest rates, and five point three percent
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: is high historically, but it's still low. So in the
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: US we'veent significantly higher rates in our past. You know,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: it could be it could be eight percent, twelve percent
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: if you go back to the early nineteen eighties, if
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: you go just back to the September thirtieth, nineteen ninety six,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: let me see you looking figure out which one is
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: the USUS, the US US. You know, thirty year bonds
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: were at six point ninety two, and they could be
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: a lot higher. And the trajectory right now is straight
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: up basically since around since just after COVID, straight up
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: long term bonds. It means your mortgage, mortgage is only
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: going to get more expensor, not cheaper interestraates. Mortgage is
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: only going to go up because the thirty year you know,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: if they if we're white, about the government creating inflation
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: because they can't paign by it paid back the debt. Well,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: if I'm a mortgage issuer, if I'm lending you money
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: to buy a home, I'm also white about the same thing.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: So the reality is that we have deep, long term,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: you know, massive challenges in the United States economically and
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: nobody is. Nobody is talking about how to deal with it.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: The only way to deal with these deficits and the
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: growing debt, the only way to deal with it is
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: by cutting spending. The only way to cut spending is
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: by taking into account and starting to consider reforming entitlements.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Nobody is talking about that. I mean, Trump wants a
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: one point five trullion dollar defense budget and he's not
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: cutting anywhere else, and he's not talking about cutting anywhere
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: else to make up for that. You do all that,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: how do you spend? Like there's no tomorrow? Borrow, borrow, borrow.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Where's the money going to come from? Growth? We're told
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: AI is going to create massive growth. It's not. You know.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: One of another reason why yields and these bonds are
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: going up, why they were turned demanded by investors on
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: a government bonds is going up, is because AI is
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: raising huge quantities of money, trillions of dollars to fund
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: all these all these data centers. There's only so much
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: money in the world out there. I could buy a bond,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I could lend money to an AI center, or I
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: can buy a bond lend money to the US goverment.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: That's competition. The more the US government raises money, the
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: less capital is available to develop AI. The more money
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: the US raises, the less money there is in the
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: private sector. The more the government borrows, the less investment
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: there is in private enterprise. For let's see, for basically,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: since nineteen eighty two, I think the yield on bonds
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: has gone down. I mean it goes down like this,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: It functuates, but generally down until twenty twenty one. Since then,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: yield and bonds has gone up. So you know, if
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: we're entering a period of bonds going up, it's not good.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: So again, the debt crisis is real. It's reflected now
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: in interest rates, right and at some point we regular
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: people are going to have to pay the price. I
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: mean we already are right inflation right now. You know,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: the consumer price index, the cost of living right now
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: is rising faster than wages, and that inflation is the
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: logic extent. A consequence of this bollowing, the FED is
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: increasing the amount of money in the economy. Because they
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: want to devalue these bonds. Somebody has to fund all
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: this government spending. You all funding it through an invisible tax.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: That invisible tax is called inflation, and then inflation is
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: driving prices up. And while a year ago wages were
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: rising faster than inflation than new cost of living, right
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: now the cost of is rising faster than your wages.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Inflation also does penning of money, does all kinds of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: other unproductive, inefficient things in the economy, but those are
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: harder to track and harder to specify and identify. But
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: this economy is less effective, less efficient. We are going
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: through a period of slow economic growth in spite of
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: massive technological achievements AI, and the cost of living is
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: going up, and people are complaining, and people are tuning
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: away from what they perceive as capitalism and embracing what
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: they perceive as the solution, which is some form of socialism.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: If you want the cause of socialism, it's because people,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: almost everybody blames the problems. The debt, the cronyism, the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: sense that people make money owned, the inflation, the high
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: cost of living, the cost of housing. They don't blame
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: that on statism. They don't blame all that on government spending.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: They don't blame that on regulations. They don't blame that
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: on you know, on the state. They blame it on capitalism,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: and therefore they want to escape this. They want to
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: escape this, and where they going to escape this too? Well,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: the only alternative being offered to them on the table now,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: because nobody's offering them an escape to free markets, real capitalism,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: The only escape available to them. The only escape presented
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: to them is available is socialism. By the way, it's
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: just as unrelated, but it's an economic point. It's related
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: to economics. Were related to finance, really, but it's it's
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: an investment principle that I've been arguing here when I've
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: done my personal finance I did a personal finance you
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: on book show episode and investment stuff, and I've always said,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: don't day trade, don't be an active investor, and generally
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: don't invest in funds that are active investors unless you
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: have some insight the index funds otherwise you other words,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: past investing beats active investing. Well, the We'll see journal
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: had a story the day before, yesterday or over the weekend.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: Stop picking funds are performing as poorly as ever. Just
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: thirteen percent of US large cap funds have outperformed indexes
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: over the past decade, and new study shows so, yeah,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: only twenty seven percent of actively manage you as large
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: cap equity funds. So what's the difference. This is thirteen percent, Yeah,
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: thirteen percent, all right, Only thirteen percent of active large
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: cap funds beat their benchmark. And that, you know, and
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: you can't differentiate that from just luck. And of course
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: that takes into coffees and taxes and net that's the
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: net result. It's very, very difficult to beat the market
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: on a risk adjusted basis. Very few people can do it.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: And the people who do it usually run their own
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: hedge funds and they make a fortune, and they're not
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: running your money. They're not managing your money for you.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: The only strategy is diversify an index. All right, just
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: thought i'd stick that in there. Oh right, China. Quick
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: story in China. So we know about the AI uh
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: you know models that the Chinese companies are presenting out
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: there and competing with the United States, and you know,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: trying to trying to get them adopted, and they're much
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: cheaper and they seem to be almost as good. But
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: there's another area in which China is trying to compete
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: with the United States related to AI. Right, they're trying
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: to provide data, the teaching data, the learning data for
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: AI models. So it's you know, it's creating stores of
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: data that it's encouraging other models, including American models, to
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: learn funnel right, to get trained on. But here's the thing,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: Chinese data is very, very biased. When it comes to
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: commentary in China. You won't find the kind of stuff
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Nikos and I talked about Maltze Tom in the Chinese
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: data about China cystorm. It just doesn't exist. So, but
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: China's trying to. China is trying to get it out there. Right. So,
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: for example, Chinese models asked about China will if aid
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: or refuse to answer political questions about China. But what
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: happens if chachipt trains its Chinese database on Chinese provided data,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: what will happen? Willing accept the Chinese biases? Right, So
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: you don't beware of not just of Chinese models, Chinese models.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting if you ask your Chinese model
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: about China, what happens? I guess the open source and
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: you theoretically could expand the universe on which they are trained,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: in which they function. But there's a real danger that
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: China exports it's few of itself to the rest of
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: the world. These models ultimately can't do any thinking. They
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: can't really do evaluating for truth. All they can do
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: is what they're trained to do. If they're trained on
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: bad data, wrong data, bias data, they will produce bad
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: and biased results. I mean this is that we're finding
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: this in American models that are trained with conventional philosophy
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: and conventional ideology, and they have the models themselves have
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: a bias that is dictated by the training data that
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: they used. If you just unleash a model on the Internet,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: the model will child left because the Internet has more
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: leftist content than certainly than objective's content, right, more leftist
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: content than objectives content, So you're much more likely to
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: get a leftist answer than an objective's dancer. And the
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: model assesses truth based on some kind of ranking of
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: the stuff that it's read, and that ranking is the algorithm.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: And it's dictated by the biases of the people who
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: wrote downlithm all just by the frequency or by the
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: prestige of particular journals or particular publications. What else could
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: it have. It doesn't have connection to reality. It's not
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: connected to reality directly, so uh it is uh anyway,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's super interesting how all this plays out.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: It's super interesting kind of how the models, what the
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: models learn, and how they learn uh and uh and
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: and how this biases the results in what it exactly
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: does to those results. So we'll keep following this, particularly
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: as Chinese data intos intos into this. Let's see what
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: what what? What else? Do we say? I'll just mention
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: because I'll just mention this. We have very few super
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: chat questions, very few like five Superchad four super chet questions,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: and very few dollars, So way off in terms of
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: the fundraising goal for the first hour, never mind the
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: second hour, which will be entering into here. We probably
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: won't make a third hour because there's just so few questions.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to change. I'll change the goal. But we're
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: way off the first hour goal. So if you could
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: do a sticker, if you don't ask a question, if
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: you just want to do a sticker, that'd be great.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: If you ask a question, consider doing twenty dollars so
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: we can chip away a little bit at the goals here.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: So twenty dollars or more would be great, But please
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: consider asking questions and sending again stickers. Value for value
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: a trade you listen you gain value, payfo it. I
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: need to getting value. The value I gain is monetary
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: that pays for my time. All right. Publishing industry, the
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: publishing industry is going through crisis after crisis. Have to
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: cristions related to AIH. There was a major book call
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: me I'll Hide the Body, a crime novel by Jerry Fellay.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: The there was a it was a multimillion dollar deal.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: It was a first novel of an author, and the
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: European agency that represented the publisher became suspicious that maybe
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: part of the novel was written by AI, and they
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: raised those suspicions with the publisher and the publisher landed
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: up pulling the book. This isn't the first time. There
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: have been a number of authors that have whose books
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: have been pulled because the suspicions that AI was used
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: in the authoring. Publishers have not given anybody given authors
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: a clear indication of what they mean by used in
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: the authoring. But last year, seventy authors significant authors signed
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: an open letter to publishers voicing concerns by Generative AI
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: and asking them to make a pledge that they will
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: never release books that were created by machines. The Big
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Five so I'm Interested. Penguin, Random House, Huppercollins, Hatchet Book,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: and Macmillan have largely been reluctant to make sweeping pronouncements
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: about this and commit. But that also means that they're
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: not giving anybody objective information about what's acceptable and what's not. Instead,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: any hint of AI use books are being pulled, and
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: the reality is publishers don't know what to do about it.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: They don't know how to tell if a book used AI,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: an author used AI, how much used by AI should count.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: They have no idea. There's AI detection tool, but the
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: AI detection tools often return false positives. That is, they
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: often indicate that AI was used when it wasn't. So
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: you know, there are bookstores that are going to offer
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: AI books, whether the publishers like it or not. Can
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: people do research with AI? Or is it just they're
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: not allowed to use AI to write a paragraph? Can
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: they use AI to edit the book? To fact check
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: a book? What is allowed and what is not allowed?
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows, and the publishing industry has no clue on
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: how to deal with this. This is one of the many, many, many,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: many many things that we are going to have to
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: figure out as a culture that companies and individuals are
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: going to have to figure out over the years to
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: come in terms of, you know, what are we going
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: to do, What are we going to do with AI?
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: What is allowed or what is not allowed? What is acceptable,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: what is not acceptable, which is different than allowed, What
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: constitutes AI slop, and what constitutes no AI is actually
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: good on this? It's going to be interesting. I too,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: am you know, wondering about how all this works. As
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: I've told you before, I'm thinking about doing a substack
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: that is written by yuran AI. So you know that
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: it's written by the AI, not me. Now I'll edit it,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: but it's written by the AI. I'm not without hiding it.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Is that okay? Not okay? Is it okay if I
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: reveal it? If anyway, It's interesting to see how the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: market deals with all this. All right, quick story on antitrust, Yeah,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: quick story and ancests before we go to the positive news.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: It's kind of funny. It's sad and funny. But you know,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: in recent Howitz and recent Howitz is one of the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: i think the biggest venture capital fund right now in
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: the country, and it is now the focus of the
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Justice Department Anti Trust prode because they have investments in
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: two companies that are competing with one another, and the partnership.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: How's people sitting on the boards of the two companies
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: that are competing with each other, but the people on
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: the boards from the same investment company, and that's unacceptable
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: according to the Justice Department. Well, we'll see. They haven't
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: made a decision yet, but this is based on you know,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: the Clayton Act, going back to the early part of
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: the twentieth century, which basically condemned in interlocking boards people
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: sitting on each other's boards and view that as an
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: anti trust violation. Indeed, it forced at the time the
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: bank is from JP Morgan to leave many, many many.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: I think at some point partners from JP Morgan, the bank,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: the investment bank were sitting on one hundred and fifty
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: boards in America and the law forced them to leave
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: almost all of those board of directors to I believe,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: the detriment of American business. Anyway, they're on the investigation,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: just as Partner hasn't decided yet whether to enforce the
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: nineteen fourteen law against so called interlocking directorates. This is
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: you know, it's unusual that this law is used the
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: interlocking directors is used particularly on venture capital. But it's
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: a Trump administration, why not try to go after them?
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: What's interesting here. What's interesting here is that market Reason
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: is of course close to Trump, so is Howarz Ben
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: Howartz both close to Trump. They both gave a lot
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: of money Trump's campaign. So it's going to be interesting
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: if that has an impact on the antist decision the
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: Justice Department makes. It's also the case the market Reason
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: famously is one of the guys who sik the Justice
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: Department on Microsoft on the famous anti trust case in
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties. So in a sense, you know, there's
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: a certain Now this is a small anti just case,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: this is not a big deal. But yes, this is
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: by the way, this idea of going after directors on board,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: this is a doctrine that was being enforced under the
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Biden administration. The Department of Justice actually first directors to
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: design from a number of boards to dissolve such concerns.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: That was the Biden indministration. In twenty twenty one, twenty
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: twenty two, and twenty twenty three, directors from more than
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: ten companies exited boards. The Trumpet administration when it comes
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: to anti trust is very much, very much in line
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: with the Biden administration, very much in line with the
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: way the Biden administration viewed anti trust issues, and so
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: it's very consistent. All right, let's turn to a few
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: good news stories. This is interesting, So purty deaf VII
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: and I know people don't believe the FBI, but anyway,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Curdy DeFi. US violent crime rate plunged nine point seven
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: percent last This is the largest annual drop since the
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: FBI's national estimates began in nineteen thirty six, according to
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: the bureau's data released Friday Now, the FBI's twenty twenty
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: five report indicated that the post pandemic declines in violent
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: crime accelerated sharply last year in communities of all sizes
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: across the United States. The drop appeared to continue during
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: the first half of this year. Among the declines cited
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: by the FBI, murder and non negligent manslaughter dropped by
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: eighteen point one percent, robbery fell by eighteen point five,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: rate seven point six, aggravated a soul seven point two. Meanwhile,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: the US murdery decreased eighteen point five to four point
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: one per one hundred thousand residents. Now that ties nineteen
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: fifty five and fifty six as the lowest rate since
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: the FBI national estimates began. Property climb declined twelve point
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: four percent, led by drops in motor vehicle theft twenty
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: two point seven, burglary fifteen point eight, and lost any
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: theft nine point eight. The decline in crime was unusually broad.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: This is This is a report from ACCESS summarizing the
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: FBI report, touching every population group in the FBI's violent
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: crime data, from largest cities to smallest cities, to suburbs
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: to rural counties. Cities were five hundred thousand to a
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: million people had the biggest decrease fifteen point three percent,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: including drops of twenty seven point four percent in murder. Wow,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: that's huge, twenty two point eight percent in robbery, and
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: twelve point six percent in aggravated assault. Now the support
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: is the final one for twenty twenty five crime. But
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: you know they're still remain estimates. This FBI adjusts those
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: estimates over time. Let's see. You know, this is seventy
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: seventy five law enforcement agency submitted twenty twenty five data
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: covering more than ninety six percent of the US population.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: Every city agency serving at least one million residents submitted
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: a full twelve month report. I mean, it's really amazing
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: the breath and the timing of the overall decline in crime,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: and it's difficult to single out any particular policy. The
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: decline and homicides began at twenty twenty two under President
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Biden and continued through twenty twenty five and has extended
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: into twenty twenty six, at least the first half. Now,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Trump came into office casting America as being overrun by
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: crime at a time when the numbers were already falling dramatically.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: And I told you this at the time, and any
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: of you didn't believe me. It's been shown to be
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: true now as the decline has continued. Trump of course
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: has taken the credit for all of it. You know,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: some of it you can attribute directly, maybe to actions
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: of the National Guard in Washington, d C. And Memphis.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: But the reality is this decline is far broader than Washington,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: D C. And Memphis, and it cannot be declined attributed
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: to Ice because it started well before Ice went into
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: the streets. So yeah, I mean, it's pretty amazing stuff
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: in terms of you know, decline in you know, crime,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: which is unprecedented. And I've been following this since it
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: started in twenty twenty two, and I got so much push.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: The data is wrong, the statistics are no good. You know,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: we live now probably in the safest period in American history,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: which is bizarre because that's not how people feel. It's
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: not the rhetoric people think like crime is ramped, particularly
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: in the big cities, and the big cities are incredibly safe.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: New York is incredibly safe right now, relatively speaking, in
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: spite of Mom Donnie. Related to crime, a large scale study,
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: this is from UC Irvine. And again I'm sure you
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: could find faults in the way they did the study,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: but I'm just reporting the study. I'm not saying this
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: is the truth, but it is interesting. A large scale
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: study finds no link between crime and illegal immigration. For
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: more than two decades, these academics followed data wherever it leads,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: you know, in the criminology and sociology I guesst criminality,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: law and society they built, you know, they've they've studied
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: the relationship between immigration and crime. So consistent with the
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: research base, more generally, unauthorized immigration does not drive crime
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: rates in US. Neighborhoods, so they got neighborhood level data,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: so they find that, you know. They also mentioned that
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: one hundred years ago, the Wickersham Commission published a report
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: showing that involvement in crime is lower among immigrants than
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: native born, a finding that made its way into the
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: front pages of New York Times in an article titled
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: wikisham board freeze far on board a big crime blame.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: What this study finds is that is true today as well. Right,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: that basically crime and illegal immigration in neighborhoods is you know,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: don't they don't find you know, there's no evidence of
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: that relationship. Did I where did I see this one?
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: A second? Yeah? I mean they used eleven thousand, five
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: hundred neighborhoods containing forty six million residents. Between twenty ten
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: and twenty eighteen. Neighborhoods with growing undocumented illegal population experienced
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: larger property crime declinents and no significant violent crime increase.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: The observational design. You know, we can't talk proof calusation,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: but at least there's no basis for the hysteria out there,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: massive hysteria around crime and illegal immigrants. It's just not there,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: all right, Argentina under Malay. Argentina is going through a
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: shale revolution. I've talked about this before. Argentina shale industry
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: is reversing decades of energy dependence. National all production reached
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: a record eight hundred and eighty and twenty seven ballos
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: per day in May, while shale supplying roughly seventy one percent.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: The US Energy Information Administration projects an average of eight
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: hundred and ten thousand ballos per day for twenty twenty six. Vaccamota,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: which is the area in Argentina, demonstrates our technology, capital
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: and horizontal drilling can transform a resource base into export capacity. Now,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: they still need pipelines and they're still the issue of
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: political stability. But yeah, I mean there was a massive
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: oil and gas boom going on right now in Argentina.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: And it's not just Argentina. You see Guiana, which is
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: this little country south of Venezuela. You're seeing Brazil all
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: seeing significant growth in crude oil and natural gas production.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: And this is not just going to be for you
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: or two. This is well into the future. All right,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Let's see what else did we have here? Yeah, there's
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: now Africa. We've talked about this before that Africa is
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: embracing free trade. There's a free trade agreement within Africa
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: that is very encouraging. But also there is now a
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: local currency African payment network. The Bank of Central African
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: States joined a entitical PAPAS, so now twenty eight countries
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: and more than one hundred and ninety banks and FinTechs
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: connected to a network which is going to allow crossboad
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: of transactions to settle quickly. In African councies usually have
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: to take the currency, change it into a dollar and
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: then the dollar into the new currency. Instead, they're going
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: to do direct transfers. You know, this is going to
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: be instant like Venmo Pipal kind of stuff. And they
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: expect all these countries to be fully integrated by the
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: end of twenty twenty six. Again, this is free movement
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: of money, free movement of goods, free movement of people
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: is next. This is how you accelerate you know, economic progress.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: But they still need kind of the institutions at the
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: local level to make production possible. This makes trade possible
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: now where they need to make production possible, and that
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: depends on property rights and security. All right. Finally, this
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: is an amazing story and it comes from New York.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: It's a positive story coming from New York and this
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: is this is again. In spite of Mumdani, New York
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: City is on track to record the fewest reported rat
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: siting teams since the pandemic. Rat sightings have dropped twenty
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: two percent in the first seven months of twenty twenty
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: six compared with the same period last year, according to
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: data from three to one one, the non Emergency service
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: portal used to report rodents and request inspections. Sightings typically
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: peak in summer months, for declining through fall and winter.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: The reports have fallen year over year every month since
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: November twenty twenty four. The city Sanitation Department credits the
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: decline to a push started by Mayor Eric Adams, who
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: declared a war on rats in twenty twenty two and
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: began efforts to star of the city's road in population
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: of food. Will get to how he does that in
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: a minute, Well, this is how he does it. The
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: city has stalled about eleven hundred Empire Bins large on
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: street trash bins in Manhattan Community Board nine, which includes
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: West Holland, as a pilot program. In twenty twenty five.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: The Sanitation's Department's first Deputy commissioner said the pilot's budget
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: was two on one million. Right now, these bins close,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: so the rats can't get in, the rats can't climb
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: up the key, rats can't get to the food. The
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: area's trash has been fully containerized since June twenty twenty five,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: and reported sightings fell thirty four percent in the first
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: seven months of twenty twenty six compared with last year.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: Residents say the bins have had a major impact. So
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: not only is crime dropping in the United States, but
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: the rat population is declining, at least in New York,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: at least in New York. I don't know of any
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: better news than that fewer rats. I'm all in on
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: fewer rats. I do not like rats. I don't really
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: know anybody who does like rats, but I do not
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: like rats. They used to live in the engine of
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: my audi which which was in California, which is very unpleasant.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: All right, thank you all. That is the news for
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: August eighteenth, day, August eighteenth, and we're going to move
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: to your super chat questions. As I said, not many
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: questions today. We're still about one hundred dollars short of
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: that first hour goal. It would be great if we
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: could raise one hundred dollars in the next few minutes.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: Let me thank some of the stickers, but more is better.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: Z Gunush something like that. Thank you, Alan, thank you, Parker,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: thank you. Let's see ten ten lakes. Thank you. It
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: was in rupees from India, Zi Ganush again, No, it's
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: the same one. Let's see going up. All right, exit,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: Gayl Bonnie. Who else do we have? Stephen? Thank you, guys,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: thank you for the stickers. Really appreciate that. We need
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: a few more. We need. You know, if there's anybody
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: out there could do fifty dollars one hundred dollars to
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: get us to where we need to be. We're one
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars short of where we need to be, so
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: it would be great. All right, let's take the questions. Oh,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: remind of Diamond Institute, is you know has this conference
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: in Austin, Texas September? It's sent about It's in under
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: a month now, and if you're thirty five and under
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: you can still apply for scholarship. I think maybe today's
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: the last day, So check it out. Check out Austin
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: Einmann Conference and twenty twenty six and you'll find the
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: information and apply for scholarship. You're under thirty five. The
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: conference is fantastic. Alex Epstein, the leading authority on all
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: things energy and environmental regulation. Chick him out, alec Epstein
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: subtack dot com. Well, we'll call it there and we'll
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: do our sponsors. Spend more time on our sponsors tomorrow.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: Let's see Jennifer. Hey, Jennifer, it seems like more than ever,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: the government's excuse for the control of national is national security.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: How can an average citizen determine when that as a
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: legitimate reason. It's hard. It's legitimately hard because they lie
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: and they make up stuff. So I don't think it's easy.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: I think you have to do some research. You have
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: to figure out what's really going on. You have to think,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: you have to invest in really thinking. This is a
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: sad thing about modern politics is we can't trust our
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: government and therefore we have to second guess everything that
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: they do. We have to be skeptical about what they
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: say and what they do, and that means we have
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: to be invested in what they do. We have to
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: think about what they do. We have to research, we
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: have to devote energy and time and effort and brain
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: power to it, and all of that energy and brainpower
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: is wasted because we could be using that energy and
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: brainpower for something that was actually useful to our lives.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: So one of the things that big government, that you know,
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: unlimited government does is it sucks our time away from ourself,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: energy away from us. It forces us to be engaged
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: in politics. In a good world, we would be doing
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: almost no politics. There'll be no reason for us to
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: be involved in politics, no reason for us to think
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: about politics. Government would be there to protect individual rights
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: most of the time, they do their job and we
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: will be uninvolved. But when government does everything is unlimited,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: we have to be involved. We have to devote time,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: we have to think and focus on it. And that is,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: you know, such a it's such a waste of our
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: time and energy. It's really sad. So it's hard. I
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: don't have a quick answer to how to do it.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: You've got to figure out what is the national security
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: threat that they're talking about. Is it real? Have they
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: declared this country an enemy? What would happen if what
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: they proposed didn't go through? What would be the risk
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: to me, to the individual rights of an American citizen?
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: Is this going to be efficacious. Is this actually going
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: to stop this enemy country even doing what it is?
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: But here's the thing. The first question you have to
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: ask is does administration have a foreign policy strategy to
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: contain our enemies? And so that answer to that is no.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: That anything they say is national security is bous because
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: they don't have a clue. They just don't know, because
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: they don't have a strategy. And I've shown you time
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: and time and time and time again that this administration,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: all administrations are bad on this on foreign policy having
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: a strategy around it is this administration is the worst
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: in terms of knowing what threat we face and how
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: to deal with him and having a strategy on what
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: to do and how to do it. John, thank you
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: for the sticker. Really appreciate it, Dennis says, loving what
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: you do for years now. Thank you, Dennis told you
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: twice in person. I appreciate that. Wish I could give
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: you the fortune that I feel owe you now reading
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: all the books with Don in pursuit of well done arrived. First,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: just thank you for everything. I really appreciate that. Thank you, Dennis.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: I really the thank you means a lot. So the
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: dollars appreciate it the thank you and the recognition means
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: the world thank you. Tium says, what are your thoughts
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: on flock cameras? I think I said the other day,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: I think they should exist. I think they, you know,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: to the extent that they can actually catch criminals. It's
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: a good thing. But they should be very very limited,
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: and in cases where they're being abused, they should be lawsuits.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: They you know, they should be lawsuits they're bankrupt the
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: abuses of the technology. So they have to be real
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: limits on retention of data, on use of data, on
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: access to the data. It has to be very, very
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: very limited. Now, you know, as if we were a
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: free society, I don't think you'd need them because crime
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: would seem to be so low it wouldn't be worth it.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: But of course then you wouldn't have violations as much, So,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: you know, I prefer to live in a world where
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: we didn't need it. But if this reduces crime dramatically
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: and we have safeguards against abusing the data on these cameras,
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: then I guess I'm okay with them. Rowland says, what
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: about American Swiss enemies didn't want to send you money
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: by super chat? I feel left out. Well, I mean
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: soon they're going to charge you a it's tariff on
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: your support for the Iron Bookshow. Yeah, I mean you're
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: being ignored. I know it's tough, Alexis. What are the
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: chances the idiotic Russia leadership losing control and giving way
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: to an even worse, anarchistic mafia like government. Well, I
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: think they are in an arctic mafia like governments. I'm
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: not sure. I'm not sure if the next mafia boss
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: is going to be any different than the existing mafia boss.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: I think the chances are quite good that this leadership
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: loses control. I don't know what happens then. I don't
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: know enough about the internal politics of Russia, but I
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: can't believe the good stuff happens because I don't see
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: any positive political forces in Russia they could take over.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: The ones that exist in jail are being killed, They're
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: being suppressed in one way or the other. So it
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: seems likely that if Putin falls, we get something just
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: as bad. But maybe the Putin fall gives space to
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: whoever takes over to at least back off of some
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: of Putin's policies, like the war, and that would be
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: a positive at least for a while to regroup. Alexis says,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: playing Devil's advocate. Can't bond yield decreasing over the last
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: few decades be explained by demographics, the baby boom. Too
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: many buyers are fixed income due to old age. I
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: don't think so, because I don't think that the that
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: the well, first, the baby boom is in now. I mean,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: I'm a baby I'm just DOEK sixty five, so I'm
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: the last piece. You'd expect the US to still go
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: down from US still buying bonds, So I'm not sure
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: that's changed that much. But second, I don't think the
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: baby boomers or old people have ever been the marginal investor,
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: the price setting investor. Right now, I'm pretty sure the
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: price setting investor are hedge funds. Hedge funds used to
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: do very little trading in bonds, in government bonds, and
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: over the last decade, the volume of government bonds held
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: by highly, highly highly leveraged hedge funds has grown dramatically
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: to the point where or something like ten percent of
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: the market or something like that. So it used to
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: be foreign investors were probably the price setters, and they
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: kept yields low because I think relative to all other
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: countries risk The riskiness of US bonds was very low,
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: and that was their basis to international comparison. I don't
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: know exactly what's going on right now in the bottom market.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but again here that hedge funds become
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: the major player, particularly in the short ty bill market.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: But my assumption is that they're also playing in the
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: long term market. Why not, particularly if they can take
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: on leverage. And you know, if you can get a
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: five point something yield and you can leverage your portfolio,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know, ninety ten or one hundred to one,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: that's a pretty good return, that's a pretty good return.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: And yeah, so it's going to be interesting to see.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: Now there's risk in along if you're highly leveraged, because
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: as yields go up, prices go down, but there are
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: also ways to protect yourself against that. You know more
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: about this Alexis than I do. But I don't know
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: that the too many buyers on the demographic side, I
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: think for years, maybe you could argue if you want
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: to argue too many buyers, sure there is such a thing,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: but if you want to argue too many buyers, it
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: would be on the international front again, too much reliance
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: on too too many investors out there in the world,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: relying on the dollar and US bonds as a safe haven,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: and flooding into American bonds American government debt as the
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: way as they safe acet. I think that's a much
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: bigger fact on than American old people. Paul will Ai
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: become the voice of big Brother. I hope not. It
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: could become very much so, particularly if the government takes
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: it over and starts running it. But so far, so good.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: So far they've resisted doing them, so but it could ultimately,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: and certainly in China. The Chinese have to worry. The
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: good thing in China even is you've got multiple models.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: Those models are not just in China, and the models
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: are not only trained in Chinese data. That is, they
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: can train outside of China. So so far no country
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: has tried to monopolize it. That doesn't mean they won't.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean they won't. All right, guys, thank you.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: I will see you all tomorrow, maybe a couple of
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: hours earlier than today, maybe one pm Eastern time, but
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: I will try to let you know sometimes during the
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: day tomorrow.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: See then, have a great rest of your evening. By everybody,