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NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:26
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:31
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:36
Speaker 1: It is Thursday before wild Card weekend for the NFL.
1:42
Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my bff, my companion,
1:45
Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon Hunter, my brother. Well Card weekend, bloody.
1:52
Speaker 1: It's probably the last time of the year. We have
1:54
Speaker 1: just a full slate of games, right you know, we
1:56
Speaker 1: got six games. We got two on Saturday, three on Sunday,
2:00
Speaker 1: one on Monday. We're going to run through them all
2:02
Speaker 1: as we did on Tuesday. We gave our first look.
2:05
Speaker 1: You know, we had a couple of bets that we
2:06
Speaker 1: definitely wanted to make. We definitely bet on the Paths
2:10
Speaker 1: plus four. We definitely bet on the Niners plus three.
2:13
Speaker 1: As we discussed today, we're going to go through some
2:16
Speaker 1: sharp calls. We're gonna get reaction from your professional betting
2:19
Speaker 1: colleagues to what we said on Tuesday. We're gonna lock
2:23
Speaker 1: in the games that we feel even better about other
2:26
Speaker 1: than the Pats and and the Niners will probably hit
2:29
Speaker 1: some unders because we've got to expend the menu a
2:31
Speaker 1: little bit. We'll get to our big balls better the week.
2:38
Speaker 1: That's what we got. It's a nice slate for the
2:40
Speaker 1: opening weekend. Usually it's some some crap games, and these
2:43
Speaker 1: are all pretty damn good games. A lot of talk
2:45
Speaker 1: right now in the betting industry about the play of
2:51
Speaker 1: short underdogs, especially on the road, and how they've performed
2:56
Speaker 1: the past few years. So I like the trend that
3:00
Speaker 1: we've already bet on the Paths and the Niners. We
3:03
Speaker 1: did not know about sort of the trends favoring short dogs,
3:07
Speaker 1: especially the trans favoring short road dogs when we made
3:10
Speaker 1: the bets. We've learned about them since then. But before
3:13
Speaker 1: we get to anything else, let's get too sharp calls. Hello,
3:20
Speaker 1: who's there. I'm talking. They definitely got a lot of
3:30
Speaker 1: calls after our last show, but they expected it's playoffs.
3:33
Speaker 1: A lot of difference of opinions, and a lot of
3:35
Speaker 1: opinions that are just elevated because people are so passionate.
3:38
Speaker 1: This is kind of the money maker time. This is like, yeah,
3:41
Speaker 1: people bet a lot during their regular season, but we've
3:43
Speaker 1: seen it where you know, come November December, people they
3:46
Speaker 1: still they're not betting as much. When it gets to
3:49
Speaker 1: the playoffs, that's really when people really start betting big
3:51
Speaker 1: money again in the NFL. And I think it's more
3:54
Speaker 1: that it's emotional tide. Like we've seen all these Super
3:56
Speaker 1: Bowl bets coming in. Those aren't pro bets. Like these
3:58
Speaker 1: people have been a d twenty five k on the
4:00
Speaker 1: Bills to win the Super Bowl. That's some guy that
4:03
Speaker 1: owns some meat packing playing up in you know, New York,
4:06
Speaker 1: and he's a die hard fan. They just legalized sports
4:08
Speaker 1: betting in New York. He bet that on his phone,
4:11
Speaker 1: on his couch probably, and they're taking his bet. A
4:13
Speaker 1: professional comes in he went to the Bills. They might
4:17
Speaker 1: have to think about it. They just wouldn't do that
4:19
Speaker 1: because I don't know if the value would be there
4:21
Speaker 1: to do it. But it's my favorite time here because,
4:23
Speaker 1: like we just said, it's so much difference of opinions.
4:25
Speaker 1: The guy betting that grand is fucking Matt Mitchell's uncle
4:31
Speaker 1: and bring him to in for all you Now, I
4:33
Speaker 1: wish I came for money like that. Yeah seriously. Yeah,
4:37
Speaker 1: Well it's interesting, like the entire episode is a sharp
4:40
Speaker 1: call because there's so few games. My sentence is the
4:43
Speaker 1: feedback you got is from your buddies calling about all
4:46
Speaker 1: of them. So let's do this. You pick the one
4:49
Speaker 1: game that got the most feedback, because I have a
4:52
Speaker 1: feeling I know what it's going to be. You and
4:53
Speaker 1: I haven't discussed, but I am curious if it's the
4:55
Speaker 1: game I'm thinking about, what is the one game you
4:58
Speaker 1: got the most feedback on that people disagree with you.
5:02
Speaker 1: The biggest argument I've gotten in with other paros was
5:05
Speaker 1: that Rams Cardinals game. Almost every group I've talked to
5:08
Speaker 1: was on the Cardinals. I'll tell you right now, it's
5:11
Speaker 1: it's gonna be us with the public. We're taking the Rams.
5:13
Speaker 1: That seems like that's the public play. And the pros
5:16
Speaker 1: they love this Cardinals number. Even the Hopkins was out again.
5:19
Speaker 1: You have to shop around. Some books have it up
5:21
Speaker 1: to four and a half. I've seen a drop in
5:22
Speaker 1: other books to three and a half. Talking to the professional,
5:25
Speaker 1: I think they're looking at it from the other standpoint
5:26
Speaker 1: of Okay, Stafford has not played well. You can go
5:30
Speaker 1: through the numbers. He has simply not played well. If
5:32
Speaker 1: you put his numbers up this year compared to golf
5:35
Speaker 1: from last year. Golf statistically had a better year, and
5:38
Speaker 1: like if you again, everyone has different QB grades. I
5:41
Speaker 1: greated out Golf almost just the same as I did Stafford. Again.
5:45
Speaker 1: A lot goes into that the running was better last
5:47
Speaker 1: year for this team, but you can't use that excuse.
5:49
Speaker 1: Stafford had Sonny Michelle the last month who's been arguably
5:52
Speaker 1: one of the best running backs in football, and he's
5:54
Speaker 1: been turning over almost one point three times per game.
5:57
Speaker 1: That's terrible for December heading into playoffs. You saw last
6:00
Speaker 1: week he turned it over in a pivotal point that
6:03
Speaker 1: really flipped that game. So the big argument from these
6:06
Speaker 1: guys is who the hell is Stafford to be catching
6:08
Speaker 1: this many points? This guy has time and time again
6:11
Speaker 1: choked in these kind of spots. I'm getting a dog.
6:14
Speaker 1: You can get plus four. It's own books some four
6:16
Speaker 1: and a half. That's a big number for Stafford to
6:18
Speaker 1: be favor by. My push back to them was, you
6:20
Speaker 1: don't think the bookmakers know that they're gonna get money
6:23
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. They were gonna get a lot of it.
6:25
Speaker 1: And I just looked at the action app It's not
6:27
Speaker 1: that split, like it's pretty close the money and the bets,
6:31
Speaker 1: so I don't know. I pushed back on where, Yeah,
6:33
Speaker 1: if it was on the rams and seventy five percent
6:36
Speaker 1: of the money on their rams, I would say, Okay,
6:38
Speaker 1: these guys have a point. Maybe I'm overrating this ram seemed.
6:41
Speaker 1: The fact that the money is so close and the
6:42
Speaker 1: bets are so close, and we're seeing the fluctuation in
6:45
Speaker 1: the different books, it just shows me that you should
6:47
Speaker 1: just shop around, because like this pro group that likes
6:50
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, they've already come in on certain books and
6:53
Speaker 1: you can see that number down to three and a half.
6:55
Speaker 1: Other books are still sitting at four and a half.
6:56
Speaker 1: That means they haven't either been accepted at those books
6:59
Speaker 1: or they haven't bet them. Oh That's what I'm trying
7:01
Speaker 1: to explain to people. It's like, if you let the Cardinals,
7:03
Speaker 1: don't take the three and a half, take the four
7:05
Speaker 1: and a half of these other books, because you're you're
7:06
Speaker 1: literally those are key numbers. You're crossing four four and
7:10
Speaker 1: a half. Those are key numbers in football especially. I
7:13
Speaker 1: feel like the only thing keeping people from going all
7:16
Speaker 1: in on the Cardinals is Cliff Kingsbury. I think Matt
7:20
Speaker 1: Mitchell and I say this kind of tug and cheek,
7:23
Speaker 1: but everybody who follows football and bets on football pays
7:28
Speaker 1: attention to the fact that Cliff Kingsbury, in the latter
7:31
Speaker 1: half of any season he's ever coached in falls apart.
7:34
Speaker 1: His team just don't play well statistically. There's nothing to
7:38
Speaker 1: dispute that. And the only game in which they've really
7:41
Speaker 1: played well in the second half of this season, after
7:44
Speaker 1: they were running away with their division in the first
7:48
Speaker 1: half of the year, was against the Cowboys, and the
7:50
Speaker 1: Cowboys haven't been looking as good. Other than that, every
7:53
Speaker 1: metric you look at favors the Cardinals. Stafford has been
7:58
Speaker 1: fading aggressively in the second half of the year. Arizona's
8:03
Speaker 1: defense has been playing better than Los Angeles defense in
8:08
Speaker 1: the two games they played this year. Arizona outgained Los
8:12
Speaker 1: Angeles in the first game by about sixty in the
8:15
Speaker 1: second game more than a hundred. Like this is a
8:18
Speaker 1: good spot for the Cardinals. Not to mention some of
8:22
Speaker 1: the wild card dog trends that I mentioned wild card
8:25
Speaker 1: dogs by a touchdown or less. I got this from
8:27
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond listening to the Action Network podcast. By wild
8:31
Speaker 1: Card dogs by a touchdown or less than two thousand
8:33
Speaker 1: three one. And also, by the way, the Rams just
8:38
Speaker 1: signed Eric Weddle in the secondary for them. And again,
8:44
Speaker 1: I'm not a trend, not a huge trend better, but
8:46
Speaker 1: I do like trends Arizona eight and one on the
8:49
Speaker 1: road against the spread and straight up this season. I mean,
8:52
Speaker 1: another thing that points to the Cardinals. I get and
8:55
Speaker 1: like why people are betting the Cardinals. If you if
8:59
Speaker 1: you have any hesitate, and it's because of Cliff Kingsbury,
9:02
Speaker 1: and yet you still like the Rams. I gotta say,
9:05
Speaker 1: I think I like the Cardinals. Yeah, and again that's fair,
9:08
Speaker 1: but like I'm already on two other short dogs. All
9:10
Speaker 1: three of these short dogs ain't winning. I can tell
9:12
Speaker 1: you that much. I mean that trends not. It's the
9:17
Speaker 1: flaw with what you're saying, though you're you're assuming there
9:21
Speaker 1: is a correlation from one dog to the next dog
9:24
Speaker 1: to the next dog. It's like the other day, you know,
9:27
Speaker 1: we were were we having a conversation or no, I
9:29
Speaker 1: was having a conversation with somebody else about playing Roulette, right,
9:35
Speaker 1: and how people like if it bets, if it goes
9:38
Speaker 1: red red red, the next thing they bet is black.
9:40
Speaker 1: As if what has happened previously has an impact on
9:43
Speaker 1: what happens next. There's no correlation. It could mean that
9:46
Speaker 1: the wheel is broken and you should just keep betting
9:48
Speaker 1: on red. But in this case, there's no correlation between
9:52
Speaker 1: what is happening in those those two short dogs that
9:55
Speaker 1: we already like in this game. And who's to say
9:58
Speaker 1: like that we're not that this isn't the better bet.
10:01
Speaker 1: I think it's the Cardinals and you're hard trying wrong.
10:04
Speaker 1: Everything is connected yet you'll figure out as you get
10:06
Speaker 1: older with age, but everything in this world is connected
10:08
Speaker 1: one way or another. And yeah, that's a fair argument.
10:11
Speaker 1: Like I told you other pros around the Cardinals, all
10:14
Speaker 1: the trends, everything points to the Cardinals. Why isn't this
10:17
Speaker 1: number three? Like you don't think sports books have these numbers?
10:20
Speaker 1: Like you don't think that. That was my argument to
10:22
Speaker 1: all these other guys who are just like you're getting
10:24
Speaker 1: free points, free money against Stafford here, And I said
10:27
Speaker 1: to them, that's a good that's a fair argument. Same thing.
10:29
Speaker 1: We'll talk about this Bangals and Raiders game, since he
10:32
Speaker 1: hasn't won a playoff game, Since we're getting a dog
10:36
Speaker 1: that's less two fifty or plus two twenty five and
10:38
Speaker 1: the Raiders. That's why pros are betting the Raiders here.
10:41
Speaker 1: It's like they're they're completely thrown out all the info
10:44
Speaker 1: like we gave out about a short week, the better offense,
10:47
Speaker 1: better defenses to all these things. So yeah, well it's
10:50
Speaker 1: that's why it's funny that you said that about like
10:51
Speaker 1: these things aren't connected. You're You're right, they're not. It's
10:55
Speaker 1: just like you just said, to stab yourself. The odds
10:57
Speaker 1: of that all three of these dogs winning or covering
11:01
Speaker 1: out right, I mean, it's gotta be less than a
11:03
Speaker 1: fifty percent chance. That's just that's an anomaly, is kind
11:06
Speaker 1: of what you just said. After you said that's that
11:08
Speaker 1: I feel like, even though you are a Fox generation
11:12
Speaker 1: younger than me, there is a hundred percent truth to
11:15
Speaker 1: the idea that you are wise beyond your years and
11:19
Speaker 1: I am naive beyond my years. That's the joke there,
11:23
Speaker 1: chat is if you take a look at our podcast logo,
11:25
Speaker 1: you would be the third year old. I would be
11:27
Speaker 1: the fifth year old. And that's what I love about
11:28
Speaker 1: this relationship. You've lived a harder life than I have.
11:32
Speaker 1: I definitely have done more groundwork. We're digging. I don't know.
11:35
Speaker 1: If I've lived the harder life, I've definitely done more.
11:38
Speaker 1: Your hands callousis in the in like my hands. I
11:43
Speaker 1: don't have callousis. That's the bottom line. No. I did
11:46
Speaker 1: landscaping for like four years to make money every summer.
11:49
Speaker 1: That was my life. You know, the moments we don't
11:53
Speaker 1: We don't dig in the durs. If you ever get
11:55
Speaker 1: a chance to see Chad's hands in real life, it's
11:58
Speaker 1: really quite a treat. They are a really perfect set
12:01
Speaker 1: of man's hands, like a hand modeled situation, unblemished and
12:06
Speaker 1: untarnished by any hard labor. But they're really something to
12:10
Speaker 1: look at. So congratulations. Um, all right, well let's talk
12:15
Speaker 1: about the Raiders and the Bengals, because I do think
12:16
Speaker 1: that's another one. You and I both immediately out of
12:19
Speaker 1: the gate loved the Bengals as five and a half
12:23
Speaker 1: point favorites. It's down to five. I have not bet
12:26
Speaker 1: it because I'm waiting for the number to continue to drop.
12:28
Speaker 1: As we discussed, here's the split the bets, meaning the
12:32
Speaker 1: public on the Bengals. Nearly of the money on the Raiders.
12:37
Speaker 1: Everybody loves the Raiders here, I mean except us, and
12:42
Speaker 1: in this regard, I'm with you. I wish you'd grab
12:44
Speaker 1: the four and a half though, because it did drop
12:46
Speaker 1: the four and a half. I didn't see that chat,
12:48
Speaker 1: open up that action app, turn on your alerts when
12:51
Speaker 1: when it moves the four and a half at your
12:53
Speaker 1: fandel or whatever book are gonna use, you'll get it. Man.
12:56
Speaker 1: But well it's still gonna it's gonna go down again.
12:58
Speaker 1: I mean so much things. So I think the pros
13:01
Speaker 1: came and they ate that number up. So like the
13:03
Speaker 1: books are just gonna be like, you know what, we
13:05
Speaker 1: can't go to four and a half because that's when
13:07
Speaker 1: the professional money is. We'll just sit out five because
13:08
Speaker 1: I've seen some books back up to five and a half.
13:10
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's fair. It could drop back down. We
13:13
Speaker 1: make the joke all the time that public dogs die,
13:16
Speaker 1: and it's true. They they just die, and the books
13:19
Speaker 1: know what they're doing. Whenever you see a big public
13:22
Speaker 1: dog like that, it's it's scary. Where that's a lot
13:25
Speaker 1: of money to be betting on the raiders and yeah,
13:27
Speaker 1: we can say that's professional money, but we know a
13:29
Speaker 1: lot of it's public. A lot of it is the
13:31
Speaker 1: city of Las Vegas. I mean, if you live in Vegas.
13:34
Speaker 1: You're gonna be betting money on this game. It's no
13:36
Speaker 1: surprise they're back on their team. So I would keep
13:39
Speaker 1: my eye on the Vegas sports books, so their lines
13:42
Speaker 1: are gonna be different, obviously than my lines here in
13:44
Speaker 1: New Jersey. If you see a Vegas sports book dip
13:47
Speaker 1: down to three, three and a half, someone knows something
13:50
Speaker 1: that that's really really big deal if they touched down
13:53
Speaker 1: to those, because those are all key numbers. These books
13:55
Speaker 1: are crossing the fact that we just talked about it
13:57
Speaker 1: went back up to five. I've seen some five and
13:59
Speaker 1: a halfs. It gives me no pause. I'm still on
14:02
Speaker 1: the SINC team. I still think you're getting a good number.
14:04
Speaker 1: I still think the rest the rest is gonna be
14:07
Speaker 1: a big deal and not enough will be made about it.
14:10
Speaker 1: But if you like the Raiders, in my opinion, you
14:12
Speaker 1: take them first half, that's when it doesn't matter. Come
14:15
Speaker 1: second half. That's when, since you will have those fresh
14:18
Speaker 1: legs from having all that rest, the Raiders will start
14:20
Speaker 1: feeling that jet legs are feeling that travels start feeling
14:22
Speaker 1: that shorter week. If you're trying to play the smart
14:24
Speaker 1: angles of this, yeah, I let's sprink a little on
14:26
Speaker 1: the Raiders first half money line maybe, but I know
14:29
Speaker 1: for sure second half, whatever the line will be, I
14:32
Speaker 1: will be on the Bengals. I am I am bigg
14:34
Speaker 1: in to believe that. Uh, come this point the season,
14:36
Speaker 1: rest is a very big deal. Teams might come out
14:39
Speaker 1: a little sloppy, you know, you rest your starters, could
14:41
Speaker 1: throw the rhythm off a little bit because they missed
14:43
Speaker 1: that week of play. But usually by the second half,
14:46
Speaker 1: these teams get it right and figure it out. So
14:48
Speaker 1: I haven't changed either. I'm still on this number with
14:51
Speaker 1: the since still thing since he has a better team,
14:53
Speaker 1: better quarterback, better defense outdoors in the elements, people could
14:59
Speaker 1: take this under if they choose, Like I'm on this under,
15:01
Speaker 1: it's moved a little bit towards the under. But again
15:03
Speaker 1: we're talking about the next game. That's really my favorite
15:05
Speaker 1: under bed for Saturday, not this one. I'll tell you
15:08
Speaker 1: right now. Our friends at Fandel currently have this game
15:11
Speaker 1: at Bengals minus four and a half minus one four team.
15:16
Speaker 1: I'd pay a little bit extra juice to get the
15:18
Speaker 1: four and a half because, like, at the end of
15:20
Speaker 1: the day, it's just not a massive amount. So that's
15:22
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna do. I would say anything under one twenty.
15:25
Speaker 1: I don't mind anything under minus one twenty. I feel
15:27
Speaker 1: like that's the juice. Isn't that bad to be paying?
15:30
Speaker 1: But yeah, again, I've already had a buddy reach out
15:32
Speaker 1: reach out to me from New York. They like we
15:34
Speaker 1: talked about, they've got they're seeing minus one thirty lines
15:37
Speaker 1: and different things like that. So don't just pick the
15:39
Speaker 1: number when you see it, trying to shop around and
15:41
Speaker 1: get the best number. All right, So you said that
15:44
Speaker 1: the next game is your favorite game for an under.
15:48
Speaker 1: We're talking about the Patriots and the Bills. The under
15:52
Speaker 1: in that game forty four and a half the side.
15:57
Speaker 1: Some places the sides up to four and a half,
15:59
Speaker 1: which is surprised into me because the money is coming
16:02
Speaker 1: in and the Patriots and the bets are coming in
16:04
Speaker 1: and the Bills in the total at forty four and
16:07
Speaker 1: a half, the money on the under, the bets on
16:09
Speaker 1: the over. Why is the lot before we get to
16:12
Speaker 1: the total? Why is the line going up? If all
16:14
Speaker 1: the money is coming in and the Patriots and we
16:16
Speaker 1: all know we like the Patriots. I didn't get the
16:18
Speaker 1: best of the number. Now that's annoying me because you
16:20
Speaker 1: talk all the time. It's if Mattress Mac comes in
16:23
Speaker 1: and bets two million dollars on a Alabama to win
16:26
Speaker 1: the national title, that doesn't move the number at all.
16:29
Speaker 1: A professional group comes in, that's just twenty k on
16:32
Speaker 1: Alabama to win the national title. They're gonna move that
16:35
Speaker 1: game half a point. That's the difference. It's like certain
16:38
Speaker 1: groups move these lines. It's not just because all this
16:40
Speaker 1: money is coming and a lot of that money could
16:42
Speaker 1: just be public money. Like we talked about. It's it's
16:45
Speaker 1: hard to read through that those different scenarios. But man,
16:50
Speaker 1: looking at this game, maybe the thing they're thinking of
16:52
Speaker 1: is the last time these two teams played in Buffalo,
16:56
Speaker 1: Mac threw it three times. That was the only time
16:58
Speaker 1: macau Is ever played below freezing tempera right, He's a
17:01
Speaker 1: Southern boy, played in Bama. He just hasn't played in
17:04
Speaker 1: these kind of elements. That's a fairy. But to me,
17:07
Speaker 1: I still love it. I love the four and a half.
17:09
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let it scare me off that some
17:11
Speaker 1: other pro groups are coming on the bills. I love
17:13
Speaker 1: the number we're getting, so um yeah, it's it's not ideal, right,
17:19
Speaker 1: chat it. We never we never like to see the
17:21
Speaker 1: number of moving against us. But that's how it's gonna be.
17:23
Speaker 1: In the playoffs, it's just gonna be a lot of movement,
17:26
Speaker 1: a lot of opinions of different betting groups. Again, during
17:29
Speaker 1: the regular season, you'll see betting like the pros on
17:31
Speaker 1: the same side a lot. In the playoffs, it does
17:34
Speaker 1: not matter. Pro groups go against each other constantly just
17:36
Speaker 1: because different systems, different reads. Again, I'm not a trend
17:40
Speaker 1: better a lot of pros. I know it is our
17:41
Speaker 1: trend betters. They'll just don't even care about the number.
17:43
Speaker 1: They're just gonna simply bet off trends. And you know,
17:47
Speaker 1: I can't fault them for this one. Taking the Bills.
17:49
Speaker 1: They have the experienced quarterback, the better defense, you could argue,
17:54
Speaker 1: the better offense. But this is such a Belichick game,
17:57
Speaker 1: right we Bill, that's the Bills specialties. You give him
18:01
Speaker 1: time to focus on a team, let alon a team
18:03
Speaker 1: he's played twice this year, and the Bills. He's gonna
18:06
Speaker 1: know what to do against them. And the whole key
18:08
Speaker 1: to this game is the lead for the Patriots. That's
18:10
Speaker 1: what in the first half of the Patriots are up
18:12
Speaker 1: thirteen to seven, thirteen to ten. You can put your
18:16
Speaker 1: life savings on. You're gonna cover this four and a
18:17
Speaker 1: half number, because that's the Patriots dictating this game. In
18:20
Speaker 1: the second half, the Patriots are down thirteen to seven,
18:23
Speaker 1: we might be fun chat because that's gonna be Mac
18:26
Speaker 1: throwing the ball. That's what we don't want. We don't
18:28
Speaker 1: want a rookie who doesn't play in the who's never
18:30
Speaker 1: really playing the cold throwing the ball a lot. So
18:32
Speaker 1: that's that's what the screpcy is here is it's like
18:34
Speaker 1: this game could flip on a dime if it's not
18:36
Speaker 1: working out for us. For the Patriots, we need the
18:38
Speaker 1: Patriots Patriots semed to be either running on first hand
18:41
Speaker 1: or second down and just ball controlling this game, keeping
18:43
Speaker 1: Josh Allen off the field. That's how they won that
18:45
Speaker 1: seventeen to fourteen kind of game. Again, we talked about
18:48
Speaker 1: the time they got lucky in that game, but at
18:50
Speaker 1: that game lands. Now we're up to four and a half,
18:54
Speaker 1: we're still covering that number. So I like that it's
18:56
Speaker 1: moving up to four and a half. That's again a
18:58
Speaker 1: key number and we didn't really touch on, but yeah,
19:00
Speaker 1: the under, that to me is that's the move. The
19:03
Speaker 1: under is a good play for me in this game,
19:06
Speaker 1: just because the Patriots are really dominant in the red
19:09
Speaker 1: zone and not letting teams score. That's also what the
19:12
Speaker 1: Bills are great at. The Bills are really good at
19:14
Speaker 1: not letting teams score in the red zone. They just
19:16
Speaker 1: they do the same thing Patriots. So they'll let you
19:18
Speaker 1: go up and down the field. They don't care once
19:20
Speaker 1: you get to the red zone. They don't let teams score.
19:22
Speaker 1: So forty four I saw down to forty two and
19:24
Speaker 1: a half when people thought there was gonna be snow.
19:26
Speaker 1: Now the pros have better back up totty four and
19:29
Speaker 1: a half. That's good value for me. So to me,
19:32
Speaker 1: that's my favorite under the under the day because I
19:34
Speaker 1: made this number forty three forty four and a half.
19:37
Speaker 1: That's a key number. Some trends to discuss because you
19:41
Speaker 1: mentioned trend players and people betting on the Bills. In
19:44
Speaker 1: this case, the trends are in our favor because I
19:47
Speaker 1: talked about this. With the Cardinals NFL dogs in the
19:50
Speaker 1: playoffs since two seventeen, they are twenty nine and seventeen
19:54
Speaker 1: against the spread underdogs in the wild card, fifteen and
20:00
Speaker 1: three and eight straight up road dogs in wild card
20:05
Speaker 1: weekend fourteen and two, and dogs overall in the plaffs
20:09
Speaker 1: it's two thousand three. So all of this is leaning
20:15
Speaker 1: towards playing the dogs, which is why it's scary that
20:17
Speaker 1: we're playing the Bengals. But I do like that we're
20:19
Speaker 1: playing the Patriots. So another trend I really liked I
20:21
Speaker 1: saw chat was when it's under ten degrees. The last
20:24
Speaker 1: six games underdogs are four one on one against the spread,
20:28
Speaker 1: So when it's under ten degrees, tends the favorite underdog team.
20:32
Speaker 1: The last time, last game that was this exact situation
20:37
Speaker 1: was the Seahawks first of Vikings. You remember that game
20:39
Speaker 1: where the Vikings down the field and missed the field goal. Yes,
20:43
Speaker 1: that was a brutal beat, brutal beat, brutal I think
20:48
Speaker 1: what was the score, like LeMond and nine. It was
20:50
Speaker 1: something weird. It was wicked. Oh my god, it was
20:53
Speaker 1: so wicked. It was one of those like the Vikings
20:56
Speaker 1: are just cursed. Yes, I'm not the biggest trend better
20:59
Speaker 1: by you, Like, like Chad says, when you hear trends,
21:02
Speaker 1: favorite the side you're on just makes you feel better.
21:04
Speaker 1: So that one obviously favorites towards the dog taking that
21:07
Speaker 1: dog in the cold weather. Alright, so you like the
21:10
Speaker 1: under forty four and a half, we still lean towards
21:12
Speaker 1: the Patriots and plus four even though the number in
21:15
Speaker 1: a lot of places have moved to four and a half.
21:17
Speaker 1: This is a really a really tricky one. And today
21:19
Speaker 1: you're wearing your Eagles hoodie represent the last time for
21:23
Speaker 1: the year. Eagles are eight and a half point dogs.
21:28
Speaker 1: The total is forty five and a half forty six.
21:32
Speaker 1: Both are live, like, both are really interesting angles. To me.
21:36
Speaker 1: This is the hardest game to handicap other than the
21:39
Speaker 1: Chief Steelers because it's a big number. It's hard to
21:44
Speaker 1: want to play a favorite in this spot. And yet
21:49
Speaker 1: I think I lean Bucks. Wow. Well, first I'll just
21:52
Speaker 1: touch on real quick with that. That total. I believe
21:54
Speaker 1: it was forty nine and now it's alway down to
21:56
Speaker 1: forty five and a half because people have read that
21:59
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a thunderstorm er, there's gonna be bad weather, like, yeah,
22:04
Speaker 1: a lot, a lot of wind. So that's why people
22:07
Speaker 1: are wondering, why is this total just steaming down so hard?
22:10
Speaker 1: That's why it's a simple fact that this this weather
22:13
Speaker 1: is no good. That's so crazy that you like the
22:15
Speaker 1: Bucks just even after you know that weather report, like
22:18
Speaker 1: which team is the dominant run team in this Such
22:22
Speaker 1: an idiot, what are you doing? I don't stick to
22:25
Speaker 1: my guns at all. I fucking suck. I hate myself
22:28
Speaker 1: and open up the action app. You can see all
22:30
Speaker 1: the money, all the tickets are coming in on the bucks.
22:32
Speaker 1: That number has just been sitting eight and a half
22:34
Speaker 1: these last couple of days because they came in on
22:37
Speaker 1: the Eagles at ten. I just so they know they
22:40
Speaker 1: can't bump it up. They know they're stuck. The fact
22:42
Speaker 1: that they haven't moved it though. Like we talked at
22:44
Speaker 1: the time, six point teasers. That's what the public likes
22:47
Speaker 1: to do. The public bets like cowards. They don't. They
22:50
Speaker 1: don't just bet straight. They like to bet these teasers.
22:53
Speaker 1: That's a key number, teasing it down from eight and
22:55
Speaker 1: a half to two and a half. Again, we talk
22:57
Speaker 1: all the time. Three is a key number. The books
23:00
Speaker 1: know what they're doing, they know they're they're letting people
23:02
Speaker 1: bet that. So I'm shocked to hear you be so
23:05
Speaker 1: Joe public on that one. I'm I'm I'm on the
23:08
Speaker 1: Eagles and I'm actually on the over in this one.
23:10
Speaker 1: I I don't let the win. I'm not letting that
23:12
Speaker 1: weather scare me off. To me, both these teams have
23:15
Speaker 1: distinct advantages on all offense. The Eagles know exactly what
23:17
Speaker 1: they are and what they want to do. Not enough
23:20
Speaker 1: people are gonna talk about it, the matchup of Goddard
23:22
Speaker 1: versus the blind backers of this Bucks team. To me,
23:25
Speaker 1: that's the difference of this entire game. Again, the Egos
23:28
Speaker 1: are gonna try to run it everything like that. But
23:30
Speaker 1: the way you beat this Buccaneers team is you have
23:32
Speaker 1: to throw it to your your tight end. You have
23:34
Speaker 1: to make it so they're not blitz and they have
23:36
Speaker 1: to respect that middle of the field. And the Eagles
23:39
Speaker 1: I've seen it time and time again since we got
23:40
Speaker 1: rid of Earth's Goddard has been I guess Davante Smiths
23:43
Speaker 1: our best receiver, but got her right there with him.
23:45
Speaker 1: This this guy. Every time we need a third down,
23:47
Speaker 1: Goddard's been there for this Egos team. So I love it.
23:50
Speaker 1: At eight and a half, I still I love it
23:51
Speaker 1: even more. The fact, like we just talked about all
23:53
Speaker 1: the money, all the bets, I went to a sugar
23:56
Speaker 1: house a couple of days ago asking the woman there
24:00
Speaker 1: how many Eagles to get to you getting She said, no,
24:02
Speaker 1: one's really been the spread, but people are betting the
24:04
Speaker 1: money line, which is very Philadelphia bus like. Again, this
24:06
Speaker 1: is a Philadelphia sports book, and she's pretty much said
24:09
Speaker 1: everyone's been the Buccaneers mind and say in a half.
24:11
Speaker 1: So I love it that they're not moving these lines
24:14
Speaker 1: because that's that's again, that's a telltale sign if they
24:16
Speaker 1: had to, if they need the money, the books will
24:18
Speaker 1: move the armor up. The fact they haven't, like Chad
24:21
Speaker 1: just said, it's them kind of showing their hands saying
24:23
Speaker 1: the pros are gonna hit us if we move it again.
24:25
Speaker 1: So we just have to let it sit here and
24:26
Speaker 1: just hope the Eagles can cover eight and a half.
24:28
Speaker 1: I've passed that book on my way out of town
24:30
Speaker 1: when I've driven my kid in Drexel and I've left town.
24:33
Speaker 1: I've passed that on the on the Expressway leaving Philly. Yeah,
24:38
Speaker 1: it's really tricky, really tricky to bet against Tom Brady
24:42
Speaker 1: in wind when he doesn't get fazed by the elements,
24:47
Speaker 1: or bet on a Eagles team that's really going to
24:51
Speaker 1: rely on the run and while the Bucks you're saying
24:54
Speaker 1: the rush defense. You said this on Tuesday is not
24:56
Speaker 1: as good as everyone thinks. It's still the strength of
24:58
Speaker 1: their defense. They're injured in a lot of places. I
25:02
Speaker 1: really am shocked to hear that you're on the bus.
25:03
Speaker 1: I'm letting a public buy is getting the way. Part
25:06
Speaker 1: of me is just thinking I didn't get the ten
25:08
Speaker 1: and like it eight and a half the way. It's
25:09
Speaker 1: just sitting there makes me nervous. No, it's fair, that's fair.
25:13
Speaker 1: That's again. I think that's really I just can't see
25:15
Speaker 1: a getting back up there. Like we talked about that,
25:16
Speaker 1: I don't think the professionals will let it get that high.
25:18
Speaker 1: The truth is I might just pass. I might not
25:20
Speaker 1: play the I might not play a side. That's fair. Again,
25:24
Speaker 1: I'm betting all these games. I'm betting all these sides
25:26
Speaker 1: and totals. But like we just talked about that, that
25:29
Speaker 1: Bengals game, the Patriots game, this Eagles game, this forty
25:33
Speaker 1: Niners game coming up, these are probably my biggest ones
25:35
Speaker 1: I've been on. Like, I'm not going huge on the Rams,
25:39
Speaker 1: I'm not going huge on the Chiefs, but these other
25:40
Speaker 1: ones that I'm I'm putting a decent amount of money on. Well,
25:43
Speaker 1: let's talk about the forty Niners visiting the Cowboys. There's
25:45
Speaker 1: three point underdogs, seventy seven percent of the money on
25:51
Speaker 1: the Niners. The total is fifty one, the majority of
25:55
Speaker 1: the money and the tickets coming in on the over.
25:58
Speaker 1: We love the winners. Um. That was our Simon says,
26:02
Speaker 1: bet get it if you could at three and a
26:04
Speaker 1: half on Tuesday, but it's generally been sitting in three,
26:07
Speaker 1: so you probably didn't get it at three and a half.
26:09
Speaker 1: Nothing's changed for me, all those stats, all the trends,
26:13
Speaker 1: everything backs up what we said about the Niners the
26:15
Speaker 1: other day, which is, you know, against the they've got
26:19
Speaker 1: the coaching advantage, they've got the line of scrimmage advantage,
26:22
Speaker 1: they've got the defensive advantage when it comes to stopping
26:26
Speaker 1: the run. All things to me, point Niners plus three
26:30
Speaker 1: terrifying though, Like you just read the stats, but all
26:32
Speaker 1: the money, all the bets coming on in them. I
26:34
Speaker 1: really thought the public could be back in Dallas. The
26:37
Speaker 1: Historically Dallas is a public team. Did they not have
26:40
Speaker 1: the best eight s record this season? They didn't, buck,
26:46
Speaker 1: so maybe we're walking into it. I'm not reading this
26:48
Speaker 1: game right because the books. Again, I told you I
26:51
Speaker 1: made this game minus one Dallas. If the if the
26:53
Speaker 1: books believed all this money coming in, they would have
26:56
Speaker 1: dropped it down to that number, like they would be
26:58
Speaker 1: taken in Dallas money. Maybe they're waiting and they're to
27:01
Speaker 1: see themselves. The public will come in on Dallas eventually.
27:03
Speaker 1: We don't need to move it yet. Um, and this
27:05
Speaker 1: is just early professional money. But we knew, I mean
27:09
Speaker 1: not that I knew for a fact every pro would
27:11
Speaker 1: be on this forty Niners team. But then I got
27:13
Speaker 1: calls from all my buddies, got guys reached out to
27:15
Speaker 1: me make bets. They're all in the four nights. They're
27:17
Speaker 1: looking the same thing as me. Cowboys haven't played a
27:21
Speaker 1: good run team since I don't know, early November. They
27:25
Speaker 1: are one of the worst run teams. They just having
27:27
Speaker 1: face teams that can run the ball, so they've kind
27:29
Speaker 1: of gone away with it. People don't really on that.
27:32
Speaker 1: Maybe they are. Maybe maybe people are looking at the
27:33
Speaker 1: same exact numbers I'm looking at, where it's like this
27:35
Speaker 1: is an overinflated line. Dallas should not be minus three.
27:40
Speaker 1: The forty nine is to me, they're just one of
27:42
Speaker 1: my favorite futures at twenty one. I like the value
27:44
Speaker 1: of getting on this forty Niners team to make it
27:46
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. So I'm right there with you, Chad.
27:48
Speaker 1: Nothing changing. I'm still on the Fetnan team. Thought a
27:51
Speaker 1: great field for this total. I I leaned towards the
27:54
Speaker 1: over um just because both these offenses can't put up
27:57
Speaker 1: so many points. But the Fournits defense they've been playing better.
28:00
Speaker 1: I mean, Demika Ryan's or d C. He's been good,
28:03
Speaker 1: like he's improved as a season is going along here.
28:05
Speaker 1: So I do like the over I'm just not putting
28:08
Speaker 1: that much on it. It's very possible that, well, we
28:11
Speaker 1: love the Bengals because we think the Raiders might be
28:15
Speaker 1: too much of a public dog. We could be walking
28:18
Speaker 1: into the public dog trap with the Niners. And like,
28:21
Speaker 1: I didn't know the numbers like that until you read
28:23
Speaker 1: it off And that's that's scary again. You know what
28:27
Speaker 1: courage of our convictions. We like the Niners. We're going
28:30
Speaker 1: with the fucking Niners here. No, I mean I've already
28:33
Speaker 1: betted so much that there's no turning back, Like I'm
28:35
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna keep betting it as long as it's
28:37
Speaker 1: the three. But at this point in the season, you
28:39
Speaker 1: just gotta trust your gun kind of roll with it.
28:41
Speaker 1: Trust your numbers, don't trust your fucking gut. Have fidelity
28:44
Speaker 1: to the math. You don't. Numbers only can take you
28:46
Speaker 1: so far in the playoffs. So it's gonna mainly trust
28:49
Speaker 1: your gut. That's why you and your Bucks pick. I
28:51
Speaker 1: want to talk a ton of shit about it, but
28:54
Speaker 1: I want you to trust your gut. If you think
28:55
Speaker 1: the Bucks are the answer, to take the Bucks, maybe
28:58
Speaker 1: I will. We still have a big balls Better the Week.
29:03
Speaker 1: I was gonna do the Eagles, but you're on the Bucks.
29:05
Speaker 1: All the money, all the bets are coming on Tampa.
29:07
Speaker 1: That's I just feel like I have an idea for
29:10
Speaker 1: the big balls Better the Week. I think it should
29:15
Speaker 1: be the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah, yeah, this is this
29:22
Speaker 1: is when historically you want to bet on Mike Tomlin.
29:26
Speaker 1: It's a ra ra Mike Tomlin, spot what what? And
29:31
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have been inconsistent this year offensively. But the
29:35
Speaker 1: reason to me why it's a big balls Better the
29:37
Speaker 1: Week is because of the money right now is coming
29:41
Speaker 1: in on the Steelers. It tells me that we're going
29:43
Speaker 1: to be alone on an island. We're with the public
29:46
Speaker 1: on this. This number has moved down it's clear the
29:49
Speaker 1: wise guys are coming in on the Chiefs, I don't
29:52
Speaker 1: see it with the Steelers team. Like, if the Steelers
29:56
Speaker 1: defense holds the Chiefs to fourteen points, I think the
30:01
Speaker 1: Chiefs still might cover because I don't see Ben. We've
30:06
Speaker 1: said this all season long. Ben Roethlisberger's best play, throw
30:10
Speaker 1: the ball up downfield. Hope that because the ball is
30:12
Speaker 1: so short, because he can't throw it more than twenty yards,
30:15
Speaker 1: his receiver comes back and he gets some kind of DP.
30:17
Speaker 1: I that's their offense right now. Tell me how the
30:20
Speaker 1: Steelers are going to score again. As much I would
30:23
Speaker 1: love to hate on chat about that, Stealers and score
30:25
Speaker 1: a touchdown until the final two minutes. The last time
30:28
Speaker 1: they played the Chiefs, They're like Tomlin was down thirty
30:30
Speaker 1: points and he made it starter stay in just to
30:32
Speaker 1: get a touchdown meaningless touchdown at the end of that game.
30:35
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a fair point to make. Again, their
30:39
Speaker 1: receivers are so talented, I can see them putting up
30:42
Speaker 1: some type of points. Like the Steelers arguably have a
30:44
Speaker 1: trio of the top five or top four best receivers
30:48
Speaker 1: in football. Again, big Ben's horrible, but I could just
30:50
Speaker 1: see that working out for them them getting at some points.
30:53
Speaker 1: But the Chiefs matchup wise, I just love the matchup
30:56
Speaker 1: for their offense going against his Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh, they're straight.
31:00
Speaker 1: There has been a pass rush and against the run.
31:03
Speaker 1: Mahomes knows that like the last time they played, he
31:05
Speaker 1: was getting out quick. Once the once the d end's
31:07
Speaker 1: got tired, once walk got a little tired, then he
31:10
Speaker 1: would take his time. He would go along to the
31:12
Speaker 1: hill where you'd take a middle shot to Kelsey. So
31:15
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you, but I I wish I
31:17
Speaker 1: could bet more on this with the Chiefs. The reason
31:19
Speaker 1: I'm just pause ones because what you just said, I
31:21
Speaker 1: know a bunch of professional groups have coming on Pittsburgh.
31:24
Speaker 1: They have a different read than me. When I looked
31:26
Speaker 1: at this game, immediately I was thinking myself, I'll take
31:29
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the over and a blowout like the
31:30
Speaker 1: Chiefs will just be putting up a ton of points.
31:33
Speaker 1: But in fairness to them, what they're looking at is
31:36
Speaker 1: what you just said. With Pittsburgh. Their defense, they are
31:39
Speaker 1: really good. They're they're really good against the past two
31:42
Speaker 1: where they can rush the pass or we know how
31:44
Speaker 1: young this offensive line is for the Chiefs, even though
31:46
Speaker 1: they've been playing incredible this season. I think they're they're great.
31:49
Speaker 1: Was the top three offensive line in Pro Football Focus,
31:51
Speaker 1: So I'll give them their props. Chiefs have had one
31:54
Speaker 1: of the better offensive line, especially with the past. But
31:56
Speaker 1: that's what these guys are looking at. These pros are
31:58
Speaker 1: thinking themselves. I'm in twelve and a half thirteen points
32:01
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh. I'll take that number in a playoff match
32:03
Speaker 1: up where historically double digit favorites at home and wild
32:07
Speaker 1: card round cover. That's why you kind of want to
32:09
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs in this position. The numbers work out
32:12
Speaker 1: that it's a little chalky, but this is the kind
32:14
Speaker 1: of chalky you do you want to be on in
32:15
Speaker 1: the wild card round? Yeah, So here's another stat for you.
32:18
Speaker 1: We talked all about sort of the short underdogs in
32:21
Speaker 1: these spots home wild card favorites of ten or more.
32:27
Speaker 1: Very small sample size. Since eight no straight up, eight
32:33
Speaker 1: no against the spread, since two thousand double digit dogs
32:38
Speaker 1: are to intend against the spread, the numbers get bigger.
32:42
Speaker 1: This is like the antithesis of what you would normally think.
32:46
Speaker 1: Right in the playoffs, it seems like the blowouts are
32:50
Speaker 1: more common in the games where the numbers are bigger
32:53
Speaker 1: and the closer games play more to type than you
32:56
Speaker 1: would expect. And like people, we're giving me ship. I
33:00
Speaker 1: was just shipping on Pittsburgh and the fact that they
33:01
Speaker 1: beat up a banged up Rounds team and Ravens to
33:03
Speaker 1: get in the playoffs, to get the opponent they nameless
33:06
Speaker 1: gray faces. I'm just speaking facts. You're like the Ravens
33:09
Speaker 1: were a team of backups. They had to go to
33:11
Speaker 1: overtime just to beat that team. This is gonna be
33:14
Speaker 1: a lot different with this Chief's team. And even that
33:17
Speaker 1: that's that's back to back road games. Just Pittsburgh team.
33:19
Speaker 1: They've just been better at home. Now it's good on
33:20
Speaker 1: the road. Like Chad, just read that stat off. That
33:23
Speaker 1: makes me feel way more confident in taking this this
33:25
Speaker 1: Chief's number, because again, people know I love dogs. Not
33:29
Speaker 1: in this round. Usually in the wild card, I leaned
33:31
Speaker 1: towards more towards the favorites. And now a word from
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35:46
Speaker 1: sharp calls. We did our big balls better the week
35:49
Speaker 1: on the Kansas City Chiefs. We've gone through the sides,
35:54
Speaker 1: We've gone through the totals from Scoot Roulette. Last week.
35:58
Speaker 1: I was on the Bengals at five and a half.
36:00
Speaker 1: I would like permission to adjust that to four and
36:02
Speaker 1: a half, since that's where the line is. Yeah, that's fair.
36:04
Speaker 1: You're on the forty Niners plus three. I would say
36:08
Speaker 1: heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel
36:12
Speaker 1: best about uh Niners plus three, Pats plus four or
36:16
Speaker 1: four and a half the best number you can get.
36:19
Speaker 1: We like the Bengals at minus four and a half
36:21
Speaker 1: or five the best number you can get. I think
36:23
Speaker 1: we like Kansas City minus twelve and a half Kana
36:26
Speaker 1: City first half to the first half. And and I
36:29
Speaker 1: would also say Pat's bills under forty four and a half.
36:34
Speaker 1: I like the Eagles a decent amount. Chad not feeling it,
36:37
Speaker 1: which is fair. They do suck, so I got feeling it,
36:41
Speaker 1: not feeling it. Do we want to offer a money
36:43
Speaker 1: line parlay? Do we? Since since we love the Patriots,
36:47
Speaker 1: we love the Niners, you like the Eagles? Do you
36:51
Speaker 1: want to put together sort of a short three team
36:55
Speaker 1: money line parlay? We can do five team or if
36:57
Speaker 1: people really want it. But like Chad just said, it's rare.
37:00
Speaker 1: It's just rare to get dogs win an hour right
37:02
Speaker 1: in the wild card round. It's just really hard because
37:04
Speaker 1: usually the dogs on the road and come playoff time
37:07
Speaker 1: home field. That's a real thing. Like the the Eagles
37:10
Speaker 1: year we won the Super Bowl, we weren't good. But
37:12
Speaker 1: we played Matt Ryan at home in the first round
37:15
Speaker 1: or the second round, I guess because we gotta buy.
37:17
Speaker 1: And we played case Keenum at home and then we
37:19
Speaker 1: were in the super Bowl. So that's that's why home
37:21
Speaker 1: feels such a huge advantage. Is like these teams they're
37:23
Speaker 1: coming into your home, they're playing. It's always advantage towards
37:27
Speaker 1: a favorite. So the three would be easier. Um, just
37:30
Speaker 1: because I don't it's gonna egos to fin. I wish
37:32
Speaker 1: I could say I believe egos are gonna win. I
37:34
Speaker 1: do not. I really don't because I can just see
37:36
Speaker 1: it with Tom there's any time remaining on the clock,
37:39
Speaker 1: he's either going to drive the field and get that
37:40
Speaker 1: field goal or the touchdown. It's just this his Brady's
37:43
Speaker 1: time of the year. This is what this man does.
37:45
Speaker 1: So I would throw the egos out. I wouldn't put
37:47
Speaker 1: them in. We just talked about it since he has
37:49
Speaker 1: not won a playoff game, since that's a lot of
37:53
Speaker 1: history to be fighting. And like Joe Burrow, I hope
37:56
Speaker 1: he breaks the curse and he can change that whole
37:57
Speaker 1: makeup of this team because he has like he's really
38:00
Speaker 1: turn this team around. Just two years. But we're getting
38:03
Speaker 1: a dog get greater than plus two hundred and Las Vegas.
38:07
Speaker 1: Give it to me. I'll take Vegas money line. I'll
38:10
Speaker 1: take the money line. I'll take the Patriots money line.
38:14
Speaker 1: If you want to do the Cardinals, that's fine. I
38:16
Speaker 1: just cannot trust Kingsbury. I'm gonna stay away from that one.
38:18
Speaker 1: So I'll do Patriots, I'll do the Vegas and I'll
38:22
Speaker 1: do Uh. I'm like, I'm thinking myself about the Kingsbury one,
38:25
Speaker 1: like that's that's good, it's good value because it's Stafford.
38:27
Speaker 1: Like if this is why I get while all these
38:28
Speaker 1: pros are like, take the value of the Cardinals, but
38:30
Speaker 1: I've already bet on the Rams and like my numbers
38:33
Speaker 1: think it's a good number. I can't do it. But
38:34
Speaker 1: if you're around Robin, if if you hate any other
38:36
Speaker 1: ones we gave out, I cannot blame it if you're
38:39
Speaker 1: taking the Cardinals, like Stafford has literally been a train
38:41
Speaker 1: wreck in the year here, so that's that's fair to
38:43
Speaker 1: take them. But personally, I just will not be taking
38:46
Speaker 1: the Cardinals on my moneyline. Round Robins, all right, Vegas,
38:49
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Cardinals in the money line around Robbin
38:52
Speaker 1: mind I put fourty oers in instead of Cardinals. Alright,
38:55
Speaker 1: Vegas Patriots in the Niners. You just mentioned the Eagles
38:58
Speaker 1: and reminded me that today's January thirte yesterday was January twelve,
39:04
Speaker 1: that is the exact four year anniversary of Action Network
39:09
Speaker 1: dot Com going live. And uh, the reason I thought
39:15
Speaker 1: of it is because you mentioned the Eagles, and that
39:18
Speaker 1: was the first, you know, we went live during the playoffs,
39:21
Speaker 1: and so we were going live like in that divisional
39:24
Speaker 1: round and then um, the that Eagles game when they
39:31
Speaker 1: were five or five and a half point dogs of
39:33
Speaker 1: the Patriots. You know, that was when everybody on our
39:36
Speaker 1: team was on the Eagles, and we were coming out
39:39
Speaker 1: and saying, look at us Action Network, we know better,
39:42
Speaker 1: we're new, take the Eagles. Sure enough, it worked and
39:47
Speaker 1: that was a rare time. SI the bets and six
39:50
Speaker 1: front of the money. We're all on the Eagles. So
39:54
Speaker 1: sometimes let's hope they do this weekend, all right, for
39:58
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. For you, Sir Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman.
40:03
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