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James Lavish | The End of the Fiat Experiment | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

0:01
Hi everybody. Welcome to another episode of
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Simply Bitcoin IRL. I have the one, the only one of
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the macro heavyweights like I owe it.
0:13
There's so many, there's Greg Foss, there's Jeff Ross.
0:17
There is James lavish. There is just had him on the
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show. Lawrence Lepard, you're one of
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them. Definitely want to follow this
0:26
man. If you want to know what's going
0:28
on in clown world, And because there's some some pretty crazy
0:32
stuff happening as of late to preface our conversation, sailor
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actually tweeted something out. Very interesting and I want to
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pull it up. I want to read it and then I
0:43
want to get your thoughts James. So let's check it out between by
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sailor that. If you flew an aircraft like
0:49
this, you would stall. Rip the wings Crash and Burn.
0:55
Luckily, for us, it's not the trajectory of a flight vehicle,
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but rather the US Treasury U.s. 1 year treasury.
1:02
The risk-free interest rate diving the entire 500 trillion
1:07
dollar, Global Finance system. So a couple things to talk
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about, right? Why?
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Well, first of all, thank you for having me and Nico.
1:19
I appreciate being on here, and thank you for putting me in that
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incredible group of brains. I'm not sure I deserve that but
1:27
thank you. Yeah, I saw that that post.
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He's right, you know, it's absolute Insanity.
1:36
The way that we lowered rates down to zero and then rip them
1:41
straight up and what people You know, for people who are wonder
1:46
what we're talking about, that was the FED funds rate that he
1:48
was quoting there, right? So, and you know it, what
1:54
happens to debt markets when you do that, is it shocks them, it
1:59
shocks, the markets and we're starting to see the
2:02
repercussions of that around the world.
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So you know, the FED leads for for people who are kind of
2:10
armchair investors or not really In this world, just to give you
2:15
an idea, the FED leads the, the policy, the monetary policy of
2:22
the world. And what I mean by that, is that
2:25
when they, when they set rates, everybody has to kind of react
2:28
to them, right? So because because we're on the
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US Treasury Reserve asset Global Reserve asset people, you need
2:37
dollars to to pay for things. They there's there's a there's a
2:41
massive amount of dollar-denominated debt around
2:43
the world. A dollar system, any country
2:47
doesn't who can't issue debt in their own currency.
2:50
They usually do it in dollars. And so they need dollars.
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And when the dollar when the treasury goes up in interest
2:59
rates when the interest rate in the treasury goes up, and we'll
3:03
talk about the ten year, you know, because that's kind of The
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Benchmark when that interest rate goes up.
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Then any other country that is that is trying.
3:14
To pay for things in dollars. If they've got
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dollar-denominated debt, they have to use dollars to pay back
3:20
that debt, right? So, the problem is what we
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quickly get into what we're seeing in Japan.
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In particular, is you get into what's called interest rate,
3:29
parity? And what that means is and
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basically is that if aren't rates are higher than another
3:37
country's then the the the investor in that other country.
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Likely to sell those treasuries that they're invested in and buy
3:49
us. Treasuries well, in order to do
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that, you sell your treasury, then you get whatever currency
3:56
or denominated in you, sell that currency and you buy the dollar.
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So that's why you're seeing the dollar go straight up.
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And you're hearing of problems in Japan and in UK in
4:08
particular, but the issue is that you know, as we lead the
4:16
world and we rip these rates higher, we're seeing pain, we're
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just Doling out painting to everyone around us and we're
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going to start to see that pain in our Market.
4:28
Its now we're starting to see some some hints of it in the
4:32
treasury market. I've posted some things about
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it. I'm going to post something
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again. Tomorrow, morning a thread about
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it, and, you know, we're starting to see.
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I wouldn't say cracks here in the United States, but we're
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starting to see inklings of illiquidity.
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And that is, that's an issue. So, I'll pause there because
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that's a, that's a long explanation.
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But, yeah, that's that's kind of where we're at at the moment.
4:58
So you said something that I picked up on, and I think that,
5:03
So we're not out of the woods yet things are, but our are
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things breaking. Is that what we're witnessing?
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Why is it happening? So, slowly.
5:14
All right, let's talk about. Let's talk about you, Peyton.
5:17
So what we're seeing in Japan and we've talked about James are
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to Gap. Sorry to cut you off your audio
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how you Katya is coming in a little Guys do to audio issues,
5:27
I had to skip ahead until the audio cleared up.
5:32
So 5% on 31 trillion dollars of debt.
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It doesn't take a math genius to see that this doesn't work.
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Okay. So they know this.
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So what can they do? Well, they need to raise rates
5:44
super fast and this is what Michael is showing they know,
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they need to raise them super fast Crush demand because this
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is a supply side issue as well. It's not just And issue.
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It's a supply side issue so but they're going to crush them and
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they're going to put people out of jobs.
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They're going to you know the unemployment is going to go up,
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housings going to get crushed, borrowings going to go lower and
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then you know then they've got then we'll be able to pause and
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take the rates down in the next. I'd say by 2024 they're lowering
6:16
rates and because they can't, they cannot Refinance at 5%.
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It's just, it's the, the debt will be gargantuan so quickly if
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we do that. So it's just not, it's not
6:34
likely. So what are we going to do?
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We're going to Pivot and then we'll resume QE with, you know,
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when we're in a recession. That's, that's my, that's my
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base Target. That's my, that's my now look.
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Let me, let me back up a second. This is what this is what I
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believe in the high degree of confidence.
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Let's say in this is definitely going to happen, but if you if I
6:57
look at probabilities this is the thing that's most likely to
7:00
happen in my view in. Luke Romans view, you know in
7:05
Larry Lepard. See we've talked about these
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things. This is the most likely thing to
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happen. Does it happen like this?
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I don't know, but as an investor all you can do is attach
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probabilities to things and and you know, In yourself that way,
7:22
right? So that's that's the way I'm
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looking at. Sorry.
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I cut you off. No, no, I so first of all, I
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really appreciate. Because you're blowing my mind
7:30
right now, and again, I don't have the background.
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You do I tell you guys this, I skipped the whole traditional
7:39
Financial world and I went straight to bitcoin.
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And now I'm learning backwards and I'm just like, in all like,
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holy crap. Like I can't believe this is how
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things work, but I'm Saying, I'm seeing the same thing.
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I'm seeing the same thing you're saying, And II think you're
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right. I think it's going to be
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catastrophic and someone asked a really interesting question in
8:02
the chat. What will then?
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I asked that same question to Lawrence a couple weeks ago.
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What will this look like? Because it's funny because Foss
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told me the same thing. Lawrence told me the same thing
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you're telling me the same thing.
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Ross told me the same thing. So what will this world look
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like here? Z logic says it perfectly.
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I'll ask his question says what will be the Consequences of the
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coming restructuring. Well you know which we structure
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we talking about, we're talking about taking the whole
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restriction of the United States debt and our monetary system.
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I don't look what I hope. What all of us should hope is
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that we that that the US Treasury becomes unseated as the
8:55
global Reserve asset, it will. Okay but We hope is that it
9:00
becomes unseeded, in kind of a whimper, we don't want it to, we
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don't want to crash, we don't want an implosion we want
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Bitcoin to gain enough traction, get enough confidence in it.
9:13
Have enough, have enough value in it, the market value has to
9:18
be massive. It's got to start absorbing the
9:23
the store of value, gold and silver.
9:27
It's got to start absorbing some of the A risk assets and
9:30
equities, it's got to start absorbing the the speculative
9:35
investments in real estate. It's got to start absorbing
9:38
bonds and once it starts absorbing bonds.
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Well, that's when it's at the level that it is an absolute.
9:48
It is, it is a portion of your portfolio.
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That that is a separate asset class.
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And once it's there, then It can be a reserve asset and it'll be
10:03
worth millions. I mean, it's just it's just pure
10:06
math, it's simple, simple math. But there's nothing out there
10:11
that can do this. You might have you might we're
10:15
hearing you know, that they're the bricks is coming together,
10:21
you know, Brazil, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, you know the the
10:28
in China, the thing, NG is. Do they use do they use Bitcoin
10:33
to they use gold? They're not using treasuries,
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you know that they're they're looking to have a reserve asset
10:40
that's non. That's non US Treasury.
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They're sick of being beholden to the treasury.
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You know, China can't really do much about it right now because
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our trade relationship is. So it's so integral to their
10:52
economy but they're looking for something gold is it's too easy
10:58
to manipulate with the paper Market.
11:01
You know, so but I could see some sort of mix of gold and
11:07
Bitcoin and then eventually just Bitcoin it's just a, it's just a
11:10
future and whether that happens in my lifetime, you know I'm 50
11:14
years old. If that happens in my lifetime,
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I wouldn't be surprised. You know I wouldn't be shocked
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but I would be surprised if things like if things don't
11:24
start coming apart, like I would be surprised if Europe makes it
11:28
in in the Eurozone if it makes it Through this decade, I can't
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imagine that it will not with what's going on.
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I would be surprised if Japan doesn't have sort of reset some
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sort of massive monetary reset and that will affect everybody.
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Those are you know, those are G7 zones.
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So you know those are going to those are going to affect
11:51
everybody. So so hope that helps.
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Yeah, it does it does and it actually it gives I'm coming up
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of even more questions. Why did all this happen?
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Was this avoidable? Was this due to bad Central Bank
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policy? I am it's a system, right?
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So look we can't we you can point back to the you know
12:18
Bretton Woods and the exit from gold as a as a reserve asset.
12:23
You could point to that and inflation and debt.
12:27
But the truth is and here. The fair thing is the, you know,
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the truth fared diagnosis of this is we couldn't have grown.
12:37
So Quickly without debt you know you're borrowing on future
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productivity, you're borrowing against that.
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And so were able to, you know, really drive a lot of interview,
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Innovation and productivity by all this debt.
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But we got ahead of ourselves and our big mistake, our huge
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mistake, in my mind, what started back in 1987, you know,
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when Greenspan stepped in and said, we're going to make sure
13:07
that the market Doesn't collapse and then you then you flash
13:10
forward, you go to 2008 and Bernanke you know we didn't let
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we didn't let the system absorb enough of the shock.
13:18
We didn't let some of the Bad actors and massive leeches of
13:25
this world fail and we should have we should have let some
13:29
more Banks fail. We should have let we should
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have taken in more pain and we should have just suffered a
13:34
little bit for that. Because what we did do is we Set
13:38
it up to roll into 2020 with the inability to absorb any pain
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because the debt had already skyrocketed and now look at us.
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There's nowhere, there's nowhere to kick it any further, right?
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So I think Larry's wanted likes to say this.
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Is that look, we kicked that we've kicked, the debt failure,
14:02
can the default can from the bank's up to the The sovereigns
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in 2008 and now here we are and maybe blue chrome and saying
14:12
this. But now here we are in 2022 who
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is going to save us you know I mean who's going to come in and
14:20
kick the can down the road for us.
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It's not going. I mean unless we less aliens
14:24
land on our planet and they're like oh yeah well don't worry
14:27
we're going to we got central banks to, you know, I mean they
14:31
get there's no place to put it, so they're going to be there's
14:33
going to be fails. And so the dollar will will
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swallow. Just about every other thing in
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its path until it can swallow no more and people lose confidence
14:44
in a completely. And I don't know when that
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happens but we're already we're on that path, you know.
14:50
And we're going to print again we have to you know and so
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here's here's why let me put into simple terms for your
14:58
viewers with all that debt the way out of it.
15:04
And you saw this back in World War Two and this is something
15:07
that Lynn Talks about quite a bit, but the way we got out of
15:11
that was by super high inflation.
15:14
Okay, so we keep talking about how we're going to.
15:16
We're going to crush inflation's going to go back to 2 percent.
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No it's not. It's not the, it may.
15:22
Now that's something. I have extraordinary confidence
15:25
in that. We are not going to a regular 2%
15:30
inflation rate. Again, we can't.
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We've got to inflate this dead away.
15:34
How do you do that? You let GDP grow In nominal
15:38
terms, okay with high inflation. So that that GDP number goes up
15:43
much higher, right? And it's able to pay down some
15:47
of that debt that you, you're inflating it away with these
15:51
cheaper dollars. So, if I lend you a hundred
15:54
dollars today, Nico, you could go by probably 25 Starbucks with
15:58
that. Then when you pay me back in 10
16:00
years, how many Starbucks can I buy with that?
16:02
Maybe ten? Maybe five.
16:04
So it's cheaper dollars because the dollars worth less you're In
16:08
so much more in ten years and you were today because of
16:11
inflation, you know, everything everything goes up in dollar
16:15
terms, including wages. So that's, that's the way that
16:20
it that's the way that they're going to tackle.
16:22
This is by letting the inflation run a little hot for as long as
16:27
they need to to kind of inflate it with your dogs, and it's
16:30
eventually people are just going to get sick of it and that's the
16:33
that's the rub right there. It's eventually people will
16:37
absolutely. Get sick of the u.s. using the
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rest of the world and you know, tricking them into this shit
16:44
dollars that they're. They're working their asses off
16:48
and four to five percent of it gets taken from them every
16:50
single fucking year and it's wrong.
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It's Sinister. And that's why I'm here and
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that's why we're talking about Bitcoin because this can be
16:58
solved with Bitcoin period and it's actually it's really
17:03
interesting because it's not only foreign countries that are
17:07
being used. By the system, it's really
17:10
anybody in the lower in the middle classes that don't have,
17:12
the means to save and assets if they're saving and dollars
17:16
perhaps they're not getting as rug pulled as other countries.
17:19
But they're still getting rug pulled maybe to a lesser extent,
17:22
but they're still getting screwed.
17:23
The only benefactors of this system for my perspective or the
17:28
US government and extremely wealthy.
17:31
People that do have the new people to give me having large,
17:33
large Holdings of assets that inflate along with the dollar,
17:37
you know? I mean that's it.
17:39
I mean you know your average person now is going to get hurt
17:43
because the the housing market is is it's not going to be like
17:47
2008 you know but it's going to go down 20 25 percent in my
17:53
mind. I think it's highly likely that
17:55
it drops 20 to 25% that's going to hurt a lot of people they
17:59
borrowed against their their house, in order to fix it up,
18:02
you know, think about you're seeing at home for two fucking
18:05
years. They had us locked down, you
18:06
know, you're seeing home. You're I'm like, well, you know,
18:09
I got to fix up this office. I can't have these Zoom calls in
18:11
here. I mean, I did it myself, you
18:13
know. I can't these Zoom calls in here
18:15
while I'm, you know. I've got a dog bed behind me and
18:20
I mean, like, you got to, you've got to do some stuff.
18:22
So you decide. You want to take out some money,
18:24
the house is way up, you know, it's fine.
18:26
I'm just going to remortgage it take, you know, take some money
18:29
out, whatever. And then all of a sudden, you
18:31
look at you like shit. Now I owe more on the house than
18:35
it's worth, you know? Luckily it hasn't It happened to
18:38
me because I didn't I didn't take out money off the house,
18:40
but you know, that's, that's that's what people are going to
18:43
suffer through. And we are not seeing the credit
18:49
card debt rise as much, as I thought we would yet.
18:53
And I think, I don't know. I'm going to be very interested
18:59
to see where this shakes out next year in 2023 because people
19:04
still have money in the bank. And I don't know if they're if
19:07
they're so Read that credit is going to get pulled from them.
19:11
That credit cards are going to shut down their accounts or that
19:14
something's going to happen that they want to keep actual cash in
19:17
the bank that they can that they can draw from while they borrow
19:21
on credit cards to. I don't know what's going on
19:23
there, but it's going to be very interesting in the next year to
19:27
see how this how this plays out and and unfortunate I think it's
19:31
going to be painful so for some people and you know it, so yeah.
19:36
So be careful. Oh man.
19:39
Okay so James, how does Bitcoin fixes this?
19:43
How will the lessons of the past not be forgotten once again.
19:48
Yeah, well I don't know if that's in the past will not be
19:51
forgotten, you know, we're we're stupid humans.
19:55
We have this herd mentality that the fact that we trust the
19:59
government, you know, trust in fact it's so many people just
20:02
have given up their like oh well there's nothing I can do.
20:04
It's the government you know if I say anything they're going to
20:06
come after me and they're probably right?
20:08
I mean, I don't know. So you you've but at some point
20:14
people get tired of it. And so there will come a time
20:18
where Bitcoin separates itself it decouples from those risk
20:22
assets and that's going to take understanding.
20:25
We've got to get mainstream media to to stop beating on
20:30
bitcoin because of, you know, because it's boring or because
20:35
you know they call it the the leading risk asset and it's
20:39
acting like that because of that mentality.
20:42
It's coupled with risk assets right now.
20:46
You know that Greenpeace coming out with those stupid videos and
20:49
those posts about Bitcoin taking up more energy than whatever I
20:54
mean. Like just it's insane.
20:57
And these people have an agenda and they think for some reason
21:02
that humans can be productive without using energy.
21:06
They're fucking delusional, you know?
21:08
So once we get that's that's one part.
21:12
You get the misinformation disinformation out of the way.
21:16
And hopefully with legislation that will help, you know, I
21:19
think that having legislation and declaring Bitcoin a store of
21:24
value and a commodity and having regulated properly that's going
21:28
to help having an ETF, a spot ETF approved, that will help
21:33
that will help small offices and lot of people are like, well,
21:36
nobody deserves. If they can't figure out how to
21:38
put in a wallet. Okay, well I hear you, but if
21:42
you want this to be adopted wide wide, Red adoption.
21:46
It's got to be easier. People have to be able to just
21:49
look at a screen and and know that they own it.
21:52
And if you can buy a spot ETF, that is highly regulated that
21:55
shows that you own Bitcoin below that that if you called it, that
22:00
there would be Bitcoin attached to that.
22:03
And you can see all in all the wallets exactly where it is.
22:08
Then that's a huge positive. It's going to get family offices
22:11
in involved. It's going to get high net worth
22:14
people who are just not Not comfortable with holding their
22:16
own keys or whatever it may be involved.
22:19
And that's a huge fridge. First Step just to get more
22:22
Capital into the system, and then once you get, you've got 55
22:29
asset managers that control 30 trillion dollars in of
22:34
investment assets, 30 trillion dollars, BlackRock Fidelity,
22:39
Vanguard State Street and Morgan Stanley 5 asset managers.
22:44
Think about that. You've got a couple of them
22:47
already out announcing that they are involved in Bitcoin that
22:51
they have products that they're the customers can buy at their
22:53
investors can buy it. And so that's important and when
22:58
it becomes a separate asset class, for those five
23:01
institutions game over everybody has to own some.
23:04
There's just no way around it. That's that's 30 trillion
23:06
dollars out of 400 trillion dollars in investment Assets in
23:09
this in this world they everybody has to own it period.
23:13
So that's going to be that's going to be a Huge, huge
23:17
development. And and that's going to start
23:20
with understanding. So, you know, I'm out there
23:22
talking to people that I know that are in these two some
23:25
space. They're still way behind way,
23:27
way way. Way behind the eight ball.
23:30
They have no idea what's going on.
23:32
They think that it's aetherium and Bitcoin and hex and
23:36
whatever. They're all in the same freakin
23:38
boat. They don't understand it.
23:39
They think. Well, you know there'll be a new
23:41
better Bitcoin. They just don't get it yet.
23:45
But when they do, When they finally wake up, they're going
23:49
to see it. They're going to, they're going
23:50
to kick themselves and they're going to they're going to buy it
23:52
at the price that they deserve and it's going to be in the
23:55
hundreds of thousands of dollars and that's fine by me.
23:59
Oh man, so you said something really interesting?
24:03
James, you were you mentioned the spot ETF and I'm actually
24:07
going to connect this with Catelyn Long's Bank custodian
24:11
and it's really interesting because the Federal Reserve that
24:15
they're the ones in charge. Charge of issuing, the federal,
24:17
the Federal Bank Charters has slow walks Kaitlyn.
24:23
It's basically two years. She now currently has a lawsuit
24:26
and also on the ETF front, you also have major lawsuits by a
24:32
lot of the players, a lot of the specifically grayscale.
24:35
Now, what's really interesting though, James is they've
24:39
approved Futures. So, yeah, of course, they have
24:43
it's paper if there's nothing, there's no Bitcoin.
24:45
Settle with it. Look, they I was actually I was
24:49
at an event with Michael sailor. A few weeks ago, I talked to him
24:53
directly about this and, you know, I don't want to quote him
24:56
but, you know, that the point is that but he's highly confident.
25:02
That once we have regulation around this, that that ATF will
25:07
get approved and it will make it much easier, you know, one of
25:12
the things that we were talking about and a big thing is that
25:15
Faz be report that just came out because, you know, you can't, if
25:22
you're a company and you own Bitcoin, you have to own, you
25:27
have to, you have to hold it on your balance sheet, at either
25:31
cost or a loss. You cannot mark it up Mark to
25:36
Market. So there's no benefit for a
25:38
company to own it and no but that that change that change
25:42
though, recently. Exactly, that's the fast be
25:44
report. That was a huge Huge plus, so I
25:48
expect to start seeing some companies start to, you know,
25:51
chip away at it. But I don't know when it gets
25:55
approved but there will be, there will be enough pressure
25:58
that a spa DTF will be approved. It will, you know, Gary Gensler
26:03
is, I think he is pro Bitcoin and and he understands it, but
26:11
there's just like, think about it.
26:14
Who doesn't want Bitcoin? All right.
26:17
Who doesn't want it covered? Well, yeah.
26:20
Well, what they could, they could use it to their advantage,
26:23
you know. They don't want because they
26:24
want to see BDC, which they can control completely and that's a
26:26
whole nother, you know, can a dog poo, but the who doesn't
26:32
want is Jamie dimon the major Banks don't want it.
26:36
Why? Because it's disruptive it's
26:39
disruptive to their perfect fucking yacht making you know
26:43
model they don't want to Have to give back their planes and
26:47
Yachts. They want.
26:48
They want to keep making as much money as they possibly can and
26:50
system that is absolutely benefited them to no end.
26:56
That's why so their trust me, they're in, they're holding
27:00
their holding it off saying. You know, that they're
27:04
definitely in the ears of regulators.
27:07
Making sure that there's this is slow footed, that's just what it
27:10
is. But they're not gonna be able to
27:11
hold it up forever. I don't again.
27:14
I don't think that the spot to ETF it is is necessary for
27:18
Bitcoin to be to become widespread adopted.
27:23
I just think it would accelerate it just and I do think that
27:27
regulation will accelerate it. Of course the other thing that
27:30
would accelerate it after not not during but long after a or
27:35
not very long after but long after a total collapse of the
27:39
current system, you know. But you don't think that the
27:43
Bitcoin Save you in the middle of a collapse, you know, it's
27:47
going to be it would be a different, it'll be.
27:50
We don't want a total collapse, that would be absolute Calamity.
27:54
You know, we would rather have this adopted alongside the
27:58
idiocy while the idiocy continues to make itself
28:05
obsolete. That's what we want.
28:07
That's what we want to happen. So James going back to the macro
28:12
situation, right? In In the 1970s there was
28:16
stagflation, right? High inflation.
28:18
And almost no economic. The market litter, the stock
28:21
market, literally went sideways for better, part of a decade.
28:24
Almost a decade. We've been in a macro bull
28:28
market since 2009 and in fact all my professional career
28:31
that's all I know. Right since 2009 that's
28:33
literally been astray. If you look at it, it's
28:34
literally been a straight line up, not in, not in my not in my
28:38
lifetime. I don't know what it's like to
28:41
have a sideway stock market. For 10 years.
28:44
Are we? Are we entering that stage or we
28:47
are? We in stagflation already?
28:50
I think we're well yeah, I mean D'Souza unemployment numbers go
28:56
up. I mean, that's, that's really
28:59
stagflation where you've got a contraction economically at
29:03
prices are going up. So do I think that's going to
29:07
happen? No I don't.
29:08
I think that we're going to print.
29:10
Hmm. We're we have weird.
29:12
It's not like the 1970s man. We have so much more debt.
29:15
It's not in that we had 30% some odd 30 percent debt.
29:19
The GDP back. Then now we're the hundred and
29:21
almost 40%. So you're going to have you
29:25
definitely going to have inflation, but I think they're
29:27
going to have to print. They can't they can't let the
29:29
economy go into the into the toilet, they have to make sure
29:33
the economy doesn't get destroyed.
29:38
You know, they're trying to say face here, Howl's talking a big
29:42
game and I do think they're going to continue raising rates.
29:46
I don't think they're going to Pivot here before the year-end.
29:48
I think they're going to continue raising Rates are going
29:50
to continue raising right up until the point where they where
29:53
they're about to break something.
29:55
Well, they got a lot of room in the treasury market.
29:57
Still we got 2.3 trillion, dollars of reverse repo money,
30:00
just sloshing around these huge Banks, every single night.
30:03
They can, they can do some things and I put out a post
30:06
about this, they can do some things.
30:08
Actually, I'm going to put out a thread about it tomorrow
30:10
morning. If you don't read my newsletter,
30:12
I wrote about it but I'm putting in a thread form tomorrow
30:14
morning. You can see it but it's there
30:17
are a few tools. They can use in order to to
30:20
combat that and they're going to use those and once those are
30:24
used up and once you get the unless something a shock happens
30:29
where our treasury mock mark it just locks up then they're going
30:35
to do those things these things first in my opinion and then
30:40
they're going to print next year they'll pause They'll pivot,
30:45
they'll stop there QT. I think that's the first thing
30:48
they do, which they barely started.
30:50
Anyways, you can stop selling the, the treasuries that they
30:53
have on the fed's balance sheet and then step away.
30:57
And then then that's, that's effectively a pivot.
31:02
So, what's interesting though, is that, so if you look at
31:08
Europe, if you look at the inflation rate in the United
31:10
States, Could they do that with elevated inflation?
31:14
Could they turn on the money printers?
31:16
I mean, answers already already been answered in the US.
31:20
The UK. Did that already, right?
31:22
They turned out in the bunny burners.
31:23
They're they're, they're they're tightening and loosening.
31:26
It seemed time and the Greg Faust like to say you can't suck
31:29
and blow their literally doing it.
31:31
They're literally sucking blowing at the same time, you
31:33
know? I mean there they, they decided
31:37
to print money to buy gilts at the same They're raising rates.
31:44
You can't make this shit up and so somebody asked in the chat
31:47
who we're talking about the fed, that's who we're talking about
31:50
and the treasury, the treasury has, they had can playing a role
31:53
in showing up the treasury market as well.
31:56
So, so, okay. So is this what you mean by
32:00
things breaking? Is this, a scenario is this?
32:03
What's happening right? Where they're stuck in this
32:05
situation where they don't want the economy to collapse, you
32:09
have bureaucrats coming out of the woodwork like Elizabeth
32:12
Warren, turn on the money printer.
32:14
You have the UN turn on the money printer, you're going to
32:16
break people. You're gonna, you know, your
32:17
room break things really print to print this and you know, so
32:21
now they're going to use these tools, they can do what they
32:23
can. And unless something happens
32:26
where it locks up before they can Institute, some of these
32:28
tools they're going to they're going to go through them first.
32:31
You're going to try to get through that reverse repo money
32:34
first, that's my opinion. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but
32:38
that's my opinion. And then then I think then it's
32:43
it's it if the doesn't work then or that that dries up and we
32:50
still need some, some more support, the treasury market,
32:53
then they'll print. And like I said, you can print
32:56
pretty much forever without defaulting until the world lose
33:02
conlusion, has confidence in your currency.
33:04
So it's a comedy game. Then you can't, you can't.
33:07
Yeah, but the u.s. is going to have the where the, where the
33:10
safe haven we're look. We are fortunate to be in this
33:15
position while Europe is hurting right now, like the UK is
33:21
hurting right now. We're we're going to feel pain
33:23
here. Don't don't like take this the
33:26
wrong way, but we will not hyper inflate or we will be the last
33:32
one to fail. We will absolutely be the last
33:34
one to fail. There's just everybody's relying
33:37
on the u.s. to pull it out. It's just and we're going to do
33:42
this as long as we can, it can happen.
33:43
Longtime hiko and that's probably the good thing.
33:47
It's probably a good thing and when we come out of this I do
33:50
believe that Bitcoin and hard hard money, you know golden
33:57
Bitcoin are going to rip and Bitcoin will be in the hundreds
34:00
of thousands of dollars. There's just there's just no way
34:02
around it and eventually the millions that's that's what I
34:06
believe. So.
34:09
So I was talking to Lawrence couple weeks ago about the The
34:13
fourth turning Theory. Are you familiar with it?
34:17
I know, I know something. I haven't read the book, which
34:19
it's on my very tall to be read pile.
34:22
We have a TBR pile at my wife, and I are just like it's there's
34:27
so much to read. There is there's a whole ton of
34:29
good material. I'm currently reading the Fiat
34:32
standard for the second time. It's super.
34:34
So I it's weird because and I've said this to all you guys it's
34:38
I'm learning from the I'm learning from the opposite
34:42
direction. Bitcoin is great.
34:45
I'm a Bitcoin standard of been on a Bitcoin standard for six
34:47
years now. Freaking love it.
34:49
Totally awesome. But because of Simply I'm forced
34:53
to cover clown world. So I have to learn these things,
34:55
and it absolutely blows my mind that being said, the part from
35:01
the fourth turning, one of the things that he mentioned was
35:03
this idea of weak men, create Hard Times cart a hard times,
35:08
create strong, men, strong man, create good times.
35:11
Good times great week, men, and the Last time we've had this
35:15
type of scenario was Will War to right.
35:19
Do you believe in that? And, and we actually at the very
35:22
end of that conversation, we came to this like kind of
35:25
conclusion, which was with Bitcoin, we finally have the
35:30
tool to finally break that cycle, right?
35:33
It's that cycle of learning that you need to go back on a sound
35:37
money, right? And then that, that lesson takes
35:39
sometimes 100 years, 150 years, right?
35:42
And I think, Slowly starting to learn that lesson with all this
35:46
pain. I think bitcoiners already know,
35:48
but I'm talking about the NPC's, right?
35:53
And, you know, I if you hear Jeff Booth talk about it, he
35:57
said, there's just no choice but to event.
35:59
There's just no choice. This is the only direction to go
36:02
all paths lead to bitcoin, all paths, lead to bitcoin, you
36:07
know, and I agree, the fourth turning.
36:12
I do. I do believe From what I know
36:14
and what I've heard about it, I did.
36:16
I do believe, that's where we are.
36:17
And this Echoes 1940 more than Echoes 70 by far.
36:23
Its it. So it makes it, it makes a lot
36:26
of sense and it's unfortunate. But here we are, here we are 80
36:31
years again. 80 years later, here we are.
36:33
And this this experiment with Fiat, this is all anybody's
36:37
known that that's alive. You know, they've only known the
36:40
Fiat experiment. If that's not true, who's alive,
36:46
but anybody in Our Little World here, like we've only known that
36:50
the Vic the the Fiat experiment, you know, I mean, unless you
36:55
were born in them, forties are, I mean?
36:58
It's just it's Insanity. So yeah.
37:03
Oh man. So James.
37:06
What? And again, not Financial advice,
37:09
right? But if you were to anticipate,
37:13
what is Ron Paul has a theory of the crack up.
37:16
Boom. If you were to anticipate what
37:19
and I'm a big believer in the fact that I think a lot of
37:22
things are going to happen in the next five to ten years that
37:25
are going to Define lifetimes, right?
37:30
Are we going to see a break? What, what is your expectation
37:34
for the US? Economy has the Mark has, the
37:37
the stock market. Hit a bottom do believe.
37:40
We're going to go back down to the 25 hundred levels.
37:42
I've heard that At about. So we're, what are your thoughts
37:46
on all that? I'm not going to make a
37:49
prediction of them on the market, but I can tell you that,
37:51
I do think that we go lower. I do think that there's more
37:54
pain ahead of us. I do think that the markets are
37:56
ahead of themselves and they are the thing to watch as the bond
38:00
markets, Bond markets, know they're sniffing this out, the
38:03
rates are going up, and that means that the markets going,
38:07
what the stock market, the equity markets are going lower.
38:10
That also means that there's there's risk that Bitcoin and
38:13
gold gold, Or, you know, so what do you do?
38:16
Well, you know, for me, I think it's prudent.
38:19
This is me and everybody's got a different investment profile.
38:23
So you have to, you have to take this with a huge grain of salt.
38:26
This is not for everybody, depends on how old you are.
38:28
How much how much you have in savings?
38:30
What assets? You have, what your income is?
38:33
They're all huge inputs, all this, however, I think it's
38:37
prudent to have some cash right now.
38:39
I do I think it's prudent to have some as you pick away.
38:43
Is this Thing as this thing bottoms out and you pick away,
38:47
you know, a little bit at a time and you can, you find those
38:50
super high conviction Investments that you believe
38:55
that? Once we do come out on the other
38:57
side of this next year, that will take off because once they
39:01
do, you won't get a chance to buy them at these levels,
39:05
they'll just be gone. So it will turn.
39:07
I do believe we'll have, you know, this kind of bump around
39:11
these levels and go lower and And it will have like a hockey
39:16
stick recovery out of it, you know?
39:19
And that's that's that's what I believe because I think that
39:23
once the fit fed does make it clear that they're that they're
39:27
pausing or pivoting. It's game on because everybody
39:30
knows the money printer goes. And when the money printer goes
39:32
M2 expands and when the antique money supply expands things like
39:39
stocks. Bitcoin gold, they all go up and
39:44
fast. I think that Bitcoin is going to
39:45
lead the way, so I'm really excited.
39:51
So and and the wood surprises me though is the utmost confidence
39:58
that you have. When you say the feds going to
40:01
Pivot you know, because if you take their, you know, whatever
40:04
they say at face value, even though you totally shouldn't
40:06
because they went from, there's going to be no inflation.
40:08
Modern monetary theory is a good thing.
40:10
All this, you know, crap and then they, you know, they change
40:13
tune said, I'm wrong, you know and all that stuff but you say
40:17
it with confidence is it because they won't have a choice?
40:21
Is it? Because think?
40:22
Okay, it's a good look at the debt spiral.
40:24
Look at the amount of debt we have, on our, on our balance
40:27
sheet, in the United States, the treasury, they will bankrupt.
40:30
The treasury like people have talked about him doing the
40:34
volcker move and jacking up rates and to 1015, 18% your Of
40:40
your fucking mind if you think we're going to 15% on the
40:43
treasury 10%. No way 10%.
40:46
That's three trillion dollars a year of interest expense.
40:51
No it's no no, not unless you expect to have you know, 15 to
40:57
25 percent inflation for a while.
40:59
I mean now I just don't see it happening.
41:02
I think that they they don't have very little Choice there,
41:05
they're playing a game here, it's they're trying to land a,
41:09
you know, a jumbo jet on a String and they're not going to
41:13
be able to their got not. I do not believe that we can
41:16
orchestrate a soft Landing. It's going to be a little bit
41:18
Rocky here, but on the other side, You know, money printer
41:24
Gober. So when so do you believe that
41:29
this whole system do you believe that Bitcoin will and Central
41:33
Banking or will it change Central Banking will Central
41:36
Banking stay? Because you see it very popular?
41:39
In fact you're not only do you see the movement of End the Fed
41:42
popular with bitcoiners, you're starting to hear that movement
41:46
more so than Bitcoin seep into mainstream Consciousness as
41:50
well. You're seeing a lot of Dominant
41:53
commentators. And influential, you know people
41:56
specific on Twitter say things like End the Fed, do you think
41:59
that's just a pipe dream? Well I mean I know it's
42:03
emotional you know the fit but in reality the FED is reacting
42:08
to everything. Okay?
42:09
Then you've got a you got a couple of clowns on there, you
42:12
know, guy who doesn't understand that the disclosure rules
42:14
really, really here like in charge of monetary policy
42:18
virtually for the entire fucking world, okay?
42:21
That you should probably understand those.
42:23
Those number one, number two daily comes out and says,
42:26
inflation doesn't touch me. Yeah, of course, it doesn't.
42:29
You know, of course it doesn't on your salary, like, wake up
42:33
people. So, but that's what that
42:36
triggers people in triggers me. It's it's, it's infuriating,
42:41
it's a defensive, right? So, but that's emotional and the
42:47
reality is, the Fed is just reactionary, they're reacting to
42:51
everything, the treasury is done.
42:53
Expanding the money supply line handing out of the checks, you
42:56
know, and then the feds going to be has to go in there and and
43:00
manipulate manipulate manipulate remember that?
43:03
So I do, I do give the FED a hard time, you know, and they
43:07
deserve it, but they deserve it in this instance because they
43:12
waited way too late. Wait, waited long to raise rates
43:17
way too long. And, but their reaction rate,
43:20
they've said it, they've said over and over again.
43:22
So So to answer your question, wouldn't that be lovely?
43:29
But I don't have a hike. I don't have a high degree of
43:32
confidence that our government will do the right thing there.
43:34
I think they want cbc's and that the FED will be in charge of
43:38
them. That's what I think.
43:39
So you better have some Bitcoin. So so do you but so do you
43:45
believe that it's a, it's a scenario of we're going to
43:49
choose Bitcoin. It is what it is and they're
43:51
going to have no choice but to go I'm with it.
43:54
Yeah I don't think I think that it's I think Bitcoin is here to
43:57
stay. They're not going to Choice.
44:00
Other people will speak. The people have spoken.
44:02
They're going to continue speak on this and it's not going to be
44:05
driven by the u.s. to be driven by all the people who need it
44:08
before us. Yeah remember that?
44:10
I've made that can we okay? We keep we keep look at this.
44:13
Also like when am I going to make money in the market on, you
44:15
know, Bitcoin. Like that's not the point.
44:18
Just put it away. You know, it's not a trade.
44:22
So trade for me, just put it away, just leave it there, don't
44:25
touch it, it's savings. And, and I've actually said that
44:28
many times, it's a developing country adopts, it out of
44:30
necessity, while the West adopts it because the speculative
44:34
reasons, anyways, James were still speculating.
44:37
Yeah, I know you have to run soon, RDU.
44:40
I've got a, I've actually have an important business call.
44:42
So it's been a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining me
44:46
on simply Bitcoin IRL. Guys, sorry for the technical
44:49
difficulties. It happens James.
44:51
Where can people find you? Why don't you tell everybody
44:53
about your newsletter? Oh yeah, thank you.
44:56
And so you can find me on Twitter.
44:57
I'm on their daily. I'm just at James lavish and I
45:02
write the newsletter. That's called the information
45:04
missed newsletter. It comes out every Sunday.
45:07
It's I take one Financial concept and simplify it for you
45:12
and so people seem to love it. It's got like, over 10,000
45:16
subscribers to it in a short period.
45:18
Read of time I just enjoy empowering people so they
45:22
understand what the hell is going on around them, especially
45:25
because we live in this opaque completely opaque Financial
45:28
world, and that's not taught anywhere in schools.
45:31
So I try to simplify it for anybody to understand, you know,
45:35
whether it's somebody's been financed or in a bank or its
45:39
somebody who's been a stay-at-home mom and has had no
45:43
Financial education whatsoever or you know, a fire.
45:48
Who doesn't care? Who knows.
45:51
We're just not taught this stuff in school so I try to help
45:53
people with that. I love it.
45:54
I love doing that so well, we really appreciate it.
45:58
I definitely recommend you guys check out James is newsletter.
46:01
James, thank you so much. I'm going to run, bro.
46:04
See you later. See you at Pacific Bitcoin.
46:07
Absolutely see you there, bye. Take care.
46:10
Anyways guys, that was another episode of Simply Bitcoin IRL.
46:12
We will see you tomorrow back for the Regular Show at 12:15
46:16
p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
46:19
I'm gonna play the outro. Which one's the best crypto, a
46:35
sitwell Bitcoins, the best crypto as okay.
46:37
What's the second best? There is no second best.