Latest / Can't Find Job? AI Is Quietly Replacing Millions of Workers / Temporary-Help Jobs in 2026 Versus 2025: What U.S. Staffing Payrolls Signal
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Temporary help jobs in 2026 versus 2025, what U.S.
- 0:04SPEAKER_00: staffing payrolls signal by Ifyak Namdi, human potential advocate.
- 0:09SPEAKER_00: A rise in temporary help payrolls can look like an early sign that employers are ready to hire again.
- 0:15SPEAKER_00: In the September 4th, 2026 Jobs Report, temporary help services added about 6,800 jobs in August.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: The series also stood about 36,200 jobs above August 2025.
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: But there is an important update.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: BLS later revised August monthly gain down to just 200 jobs.
- 0:36SPEAKER_00: The year-over-year increase shrank too.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: The first report pointed to a small staffing rebound.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: The latest figures make that signal much weaker.
- 0:46SPEAKER_00: What the August figure showed at first, the September 4th report counted 2.5195 million seasonally adjusted jobs in temporary help services in August 2026, up from 2.5127 million in July.
- 1:01SPEAKER_00: That is a gain of 6,800.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: August 2025 stood at 2.4833 million, so the first report showed a year-over-year rise of 36,200, or about 1.5%.
- 1:15SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
- 1:20SPEAKER_00: A gain of 6,800 is small beside a workforce of about 2.5 million.
- 1:26SPEAKER_00: It is roughly 0.3% of that payroll total.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: It is a reason to watch the series, not proof that employers have begun a broad hiring wave.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: The next report changed the story.
- 1:36SPEAKER_00: Payroll estimates are revised as BLS receives more reports and updates seasonal factors.
- 1:43SPEAKER_00: In its October 2, 2026 report, BLS put August temporary help employment at 2.4977 million and July at 2.4975 million.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: That leaves an August rise of just 200 jobs, not 6800.
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: The latest August level was about 14,400 jobs or 0.6% above August 2025.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: September then fell by 10,900 to 2.4868 million.
- 2:14SPEAKER_00: This is not a reason to dismiss the first report.
- 2:17SPEAKER_00: It is a reason to read it as an early estimate, not a final verdict.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: BLS routinely revises the latest months when new data arrive.
- 2:25SPEAKER_00: In this case, the revision erased nearly all of the August increase that first caught the eye.
- 2:31SPEAKER_00: What a temporary help payroll counts.
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: Temporary help payrolls count jobs at businesses classified as temporary help services, staffing agencies that supply workers to clients.
- 2:42SPEAKER_00: They do not count every vacancy at a client company, and they are not an exact count of unique people working temporary assignments.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: BLS payroll data count jobs.
- 2:53SPEAKER_00: A person with jobs at more than one establishment can be counted more than once.
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: The employer of record rule matters.
- 3:01SPEAKER_00: A worker may spend the day at a client's office or factory, while the staffing agency is the employer shown in the payroll data.
- 3:09SPEAKER_00: BLS says temporary agency employees are counted under their employer of record, not at the location where they do the work.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: That means a rise in agency payrolls can show more workers being supplied by staffing firms.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: It does not, by itself, show that client companies added permanent employees.
- 3:29SPEAKER_00: Compare temporary help with professional services payrolls.
- 3:33SPEAKER_00: A useful comparison is professional, scientific, and technical services, an industry that includes areas such as engineering, consulting, research, and computer systems design.
- 3:44SPEAKER_00: The September 4 report showed 10.8423 million payroll jobs in that industry in August 2026, compared with 10.7657 million in August 2025.
- 3:57SPEAKER_00: That was a gain of 76,600, or about 0.7%.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: The latest revised data put the August 2026 level at 10.8372 million, still about 71,500, or 0.7%, above August 2025.
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: That is modest growth in a large industry.
- 4:19SPEAKER_00: It is not a clean count of permanent jobs though.
- 4:22SPEAKER_00: BLS payroll data sort jobs by the employer's industry, not by whether each job is permanent, short-term, or seasonal.
- 4:30SPEAKER_00: So professional and technical payrolls are a useful direct employer comparison, but not a perfect permanent jobs measure.
- 4:38SPEAKER_00: The change in the comparison is telling, in the first report, temporary help payrolls brew faster over the year than professional, scientific, and technical payrolls.
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: About 1.5% versus 0.7%.
- 4:54SPEAKER_00: After revision, temporary help was up about 0.6%, while professional and technical services remained up about 0.7%.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: The apparent staffing lead disappeared.
- 5:06SPEAKER_00: Do openings and hires confirm wider hiring?
- 5:09SPEAKER_00: The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Jolts, offers a second test.
- 5:14SPEAKER_00: In professional and business services, reported job openings were 1.186 million in August 2026.
- 5:22SPEAKER_00: That was above 1.095 million a year earlier, but below 1.305 million in July.
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: Hires were 935,000 in August, up from July's 899,000, but below the 1.037 million reported for August 2025.
- 5:40SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
- 5:45SPEAKER_00: This is a mixed signal.
- 5:47SPEAKER_00: Openings were higher than a year earlier, which suggests employers were seeking more workers at month's end, but hires were lower than a year earlier.
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: And August openings fell sharply from July.
- 5:59SPEAKER_00: Joltz also measures something different from temporary help payrolls.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: Its openings count covers positions an employer is actively trying to fill.
- 6:08SPEAKER_00: BLS excludes positions that will be filled by employees of temporary help agencies, contractors, or similar firms.
- 6:16SPEAKER_00: Joltz hires also exclude those agency employees, so the Joltz figures help test direct employer hiring, but they do not count the same jobs as staffing agency payrolls.
- 6:26SPEAKER_00: The national picture was not a clear hiring surge either.
- 6:30SPEAKER_00: Total U.S.
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: openings fell from 7.335 million in July to 7.079 million in August, while total hires changed little at about 5.2 million.
- 6:41SPEAKER_00: What workers and staffing clients should take from this for temporary workers.
- 6:46SPEAKER_00: The first August report offered a small sign of stronger agency demand.
- 6:50SPEAKER_00: The later revision shows why one month should not drive a career decision.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: A better signal would be several months of rising agency payrolls, more repeat assignments, and stronger direct hiring.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: Use each assignment to build proof of what you can do.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: Keep track of results.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: Strengthen skills that travel between employers, including clear communication, sound judgment, problem solving, and the ability to use AI tools well.
- 7:18SPEAKER_00: Those skills matter whether a role is temporary, permanent, or project-based.
- 7:23SPEAKER_00: For staffing clients, agency payroll gains can signal a need for flexible labor.
- 7:28SPEAKER_00: They do not tell you whether that need will last or turn into direct hires.
- 7:33SPEAKER_00: Watch the work itself, repeat requests, hours, assignment length, conversions to company payrolls, and direct hire openings and hires.
- 7:42SPEAKER_00: In an AI-driven economy, temporary work may help companies fill short projects or handle demand spikes, while they decide which roles to build for the long term.
- 7:52SPEAKER_00: That is a reasonable way to think about staffing, not a fact proved by these payroll numbers.
- 7:57SPEAKER_00: The data do not tell us whether AI caused the August change.
- 8:02SPEAKER_00: Conclusion: The September 4 report showed temporary help payrolls at 2.520 million, up about 7,000 in August, and 36,200 from a year earlier.
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: But BLS's October 2nd update revised the monthly gain to about 200 and the year-over-year increase to about 14,400.
- 8:24SPEAKER_00: September payrolls then fell.
- 8:26SPEAKER_00: Professional and technical payrolls grew modestly over the year.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: Jolts showed more openings than a year earlier, but fewer hires.
- 8:36SPEAKER_00: Put together, the numbers show some demand for staffing and some growth in professional services, not firm proof that temporary gains are spreading into wider direct hiring.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: For workers and employers alike, the smart move is to watch the next several months, not bet on one first estimate.
- 8:57SPEAKER_00: All links to sources are available in the text version of this article.
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: You can find the full article at can'ffindjob.com slash blog.
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
- 9:07SPEAKER_00: If today's episode hit close to home, stop scrolling job boards that weren't built for this new reality.
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