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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | 9/27/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lifting.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? We're back talking some fights a
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: week off now I think, I don't know if it's
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: like nine straight weeks. I think every single week until Thanksgiving,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: then a couple of good cards to finish it off.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: We are in Perth, Australia. Fourteen fights, seven pm Eastern.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: I hear fourteen fights, get a little a little excited
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: down below, man, fourteen fights. Fingers crossed to keep all fourteen.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: But we've had a lot recently, and anytime we do
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: see what's up wys, I appreciate you. Yeah, starting a
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: couple of minutes late, stomach going crazy. Good to see you.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: But anytime you see fourteen fights, that gets me excited.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Great for DFS ownership, gets more spread outs, pretty good
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: fights too, Like not too many big favorites on this card.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: I think it's really good for DFS. How you feeling
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: about it, Big Marley? How's your week off? What's going on?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah? I kind of like this card.
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think it's the best card to
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: like invite your boys over to watch, but I think
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: it's a really good DFS card, especially if we keep
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: all fourteen fights. I haven't even attempted to build a
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: lineup yet, so I don't know what it's going to
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: look like. But we got a lot of options, a
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: lot of fights. Are a few fights I want to
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: narrow in on, and then I think a couple of
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: ways we could probably get different. There's nobody that's like
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: two own in the upper range, and I think we
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: can get different by actually paying up this week. So
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: good card for DFS and hopefully we ship it and
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: we have a big bank roll for Sunday.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I don't think the upper tier is
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: like crazy strong. I actually think the lower tier is
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: really strong. A lot of really good inside the distance
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: props down low, a lot of good money line values
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: for their price in the lower range, Like I can see,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: like if you want to leave eight hundred on this card,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's crazy by any means. Like the
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: first thing I always do is to go and look
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: at these money lines. All right, we got a minus
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: three seventy five. This has increased. I did put these
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: up on Monday, but outside of that, not one over
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: minus three hundred besides one fight, Like we see plus
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: three hundreds win all the time in MMA, so leaving
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: money is definitely liable. The main event, Big Marley does
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: have it as a four star, definitely good fight to
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: target minus four hundred, but you see, neither of these
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: guys are wrestlers. If it's a third round knockout on
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: the Alburg side, that easily could bust at ninety three hundred.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: So I don't think there's any fight you need to
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: go all in on or make a rule. If there was,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: I think it's this clear minus one thousand inside the
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: distance fight that we'll get to in a little bit.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: But are you gonna be making any rules, any broad
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: slid anything before we go fight by fight?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: No, I don't really know.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Actually, I think this is kind of my first DFS
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: look right now actually with you, so we'll see, I
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: guess once we get towards the end.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: I like that. Yeah, everything will be up tomorrow. Projections, ownership,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: I got all my ride ups done, but I always
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: wait to talk to you. That's why I don't finalize
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: anything Thursday night or anything. I like track and line movement,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: the weigh ins on Friday mornings. But yeah, I always
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: love getting your opinion, your thoughts, and some of my
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: thoughts can change as well, so we'll get right into
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: it again. I appreciate everyone hanging out, watching live, watching
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: on playback. All we ask like button subscribe button helps
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: us out a ton and if you do want to
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: join us at the Nation, click on Ship the Nation.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: Right here, there's a Join the Nation and you can
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: get weekly, monthly, annual options. If you just want football only,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: we do still offer that. But you're watching an MMA show,
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: you probably want some MMA content to go along with it.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: College football still going, NASCAR is still going, MLB is
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: still going. Next thing you know, NBA will be bad.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Best time of the year, no doubt is a DFS fan,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: So we'll get right into it. To one of my
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: least favorite fights on the card. To kick it off,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: I'm going based on the Stone again on Monday, I
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: did this. I will go off based on topology. Sometimes
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: the bout orders do change a little bit throughout. It
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: means absolutely nothing in terms of DFS with everything being independent,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: but otom the top from the stone. First fight of
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: the night, Oban Elliott taken on Jonathan Mikolf had definitely
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: probably butchered the last name, like I'll butcher some of these.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: There's too many sports going on I do not most
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: of the time. If I do watch tape, and again
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: I'm more the props game theory wise. I watch fights
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: every single week, so I know most but usually I
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: watch with the volume off. Sometimes the announcers can can
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: sway my thoughts or just absolutely be brutal sometimes, so
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Obon minus one twenty five Jonathan plus one oh five
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: plus one seventy for this fight to finish Jonathan the
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Slight Dog plus three hundred inside the distance, Obon plus
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: four one hundred inside the distance, So just looking right here,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: A little money came in on Oban since Monday. The
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: line has hardly changed though inside the distance hasn't changed
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: at all. And when we're looking based on Monday, this
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: is the second most likely fight to go the distance
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: on the card at minus two ten. I don't like
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: fights that are supposed to go the distance. This fight
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: in the mid tier, but we have a couple solid
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: mid tier fights like Petrowski. This fight minus won twenty
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: to finish Badoia Malarkey. It's fine, but it's plus one
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: twenty to finish, which is better. I do think where
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: a lot of people go in the mid tier. Did
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I miss it? One two I guess Tom Nolan Campbell
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: is like just outside the upper tier. Oh yeah, Tafa Sutherland.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: There we go minus two fifty right there. So this
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: is my least I think my least favorite fight on
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: the card. If I was only playing a handful lineups,
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: I would have none of it. You're parlay in getting
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: the winner right in a coin flip fight plus one
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: seventy hitting a fight to finish, and then it's still
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: scoring enough on a fourteen fight card. So it's a
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: straight X out for me to start the card. What
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: about you?
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's my least favorite on the card
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: as well. I don't think I'm gonna exit out. I'm
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: okay with a little bit of mckayliff as an underdog
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: that I'm okay with winning. But neither one of these
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: guys are gonna strike at a crazy pace. I don't
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: think they're gonna wrestle much either. I think it's gonna
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: be really close, back and forth fight where we probably
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: are gonna see the judges picking the winner. Mcayliff is
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: a little bit more dangerous. I think he might have
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: a little slight edge at range, but Elliot's more proven.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: I think he can close the distance more and have
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: the edge there. But it's just a toss up to me,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: so I'd rather have the underdog. I think I'll x
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: out Elliott keep the dog in. But I don't want
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: too much mckayliff. He's just an underdog that I'm willing
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: to target, especially for like mid range type of fights,
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: because I don't think we need the uppest of range
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: this week. So I'm okay just building in that mid
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: range this week.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you again. I would rather go down
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: from either of these two, honestly and play an Listen,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: one hundred percent, I would rather do that, play Kobe Thickness,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: to be honest, probably played Belotto, like if you're talking
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: about in wins for all three of these guys, but
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Lotto I think clearly has the most upside of all
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: three of these guys. And it's fourteen fights. The more fights,
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: the more upside you need. So yeah, not a fight.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: I want to start it off my least favorite on
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: the card. And I know you just saw that awful
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: I saw an underdog tweet. But Marvin Harrison, brother, what
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: are you doing? That's two picks on Kyler because A
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: he can't catch it and he doesn't know how to
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: keep running their route.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: They almost threw a long bomb to Horton just now,
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: but he missed it. I thought he had it at first.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: We missed it. That's probably good for me in DFS,
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: I don't even want to man. I so close last
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: on Monday to two hundred thirteen thousand. If they could tackle,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: they could have tackled Justice Hill at the end. I
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: don't know if you saw, but it would have been
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: fourth and twelve. They get a stop right there, two
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: hundred thirteen big ones, but hey, no one cares. As
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Tambo says, we're harder. We're back to talking some MMA
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: big prizes this week. You can win on k up
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: there and again. I do think it's a card where
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: solo shipper is very very much in play this week.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Let's keep a rolling. Next fight on the car another
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: mid tier fight, Andre Petrowski and Cameron Roastin. We have
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: minus one seventy five Petrowski plus one fifty is roast
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: In minus one twenty for this fight to finish. Both
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: guys plus two thirty five inside the distance. So we
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: know Petroski roaston making his UFC debut. Petrosky a primary
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: wrestler three point two to one takedowns per fifteen minutes.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: What do you think on the roast in side? And
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: do you think this fight mainly plays out on the mat.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: That's something I would have interest in. If so, we
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: do see a little money has came in on Petrosky
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: since Monday was minus one fifty one now minus one
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: seventy five. However, opening line though Petrowski was minus two
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: to twenty, So minus two twenty at all the way
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: down to minus one fifty at its lowest. Then a
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: little buy back on the Petroski side. How do you
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: see it?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: I think if Petroski wins, it does play out on
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: the mat. He should be looking to go in there
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: and get takedowns, grind out control time like he usually does.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: He has a submission game, but I don't know how
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: dangerous he really is. I think he's more likely to
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: grind out three rounds two three rounds and score like
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: close to ten X. Maybe he's got ninety ninety five
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: upside in that type of case. I think Rouston, though,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: if he can stuff takedowns, he's the better striker in
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: this one. He's gonna be more dangerous as well, he
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: has a submission game too, so I think he could
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: choke out Petrowski. I prefer the underdog in this one.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: He's the one that doesn't have to travel across the world,
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: and if he gets on top of Petruski, I don't
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: think he's a better wrestler at all, but I do
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: think he could get a takedown and get into on
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: top of Petroski, and I think he'll do a lot
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: more damage in top control than Petrowski would on top
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: control against Ralston. So my prefer play on this one's
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: gonna be the underdog, and I think he's gonna be
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: a fairly loaned underdog, so I'll be overweight to him.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna fade Petrowski, I do. I'm interested in him,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: and the line movement's going his way as well, so
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: I like that too, but I'm not gonna be overweight
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: on him. It'll be more of a slightly under or
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: around the field.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. I prefer roasting Rouston roast
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: and whatever it is for the eight hundred dollars savings.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: And you mentioned like he could submit Petrowsky, and the
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: props do back that up, so very similar props on
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: both sides like round one prop plus five hundred Petrowski
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: plus five seventy five roast in which one is it
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: roasting or rouston? So I don't just keep butchering. I yea,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: I have no idea.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I think it's I actually don't even remember. I don't know.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: I flicked them up on Sunday. I'm gonna say, I'm
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with uh, I'm gonna go with roast
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: in row row who knows? But again both plus two
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: thirty five inside the distance by Ko roast and plus
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: five hundred Petroski six fifty Petrowski by sub plus four
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: hundred roast and plus five hundred, So that shows like
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: both guys are very similar to win by the any
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: method like same inside the distance, very similar submission, very
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: similar KO. And because Petrowski is a primary wrestler and
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: seeing these props like that gives me hope that this
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: fight could play out on the mat a lot. Maybe
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: if this fight plays out on the mat over half
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the time, we could either get a one guy's just
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: a way better wrestler and just lives in top control.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Multiple takedowns. You get a lot of points that way.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: Or if it's even pretty close, you can get reversals,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: both guys getting takedowns, tot. Like, there's so many ways
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: if fights play out on the ground that it can
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: score points and be optimal for DFS. So I definitely
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: like this fight more than the first one we talked about,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: and eight hundred savings on the roast in side, I'm
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: definitely in on that. One thing I wanted to note
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: in the beginning about just like how spread out everything
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: is in this fourteen fight card are preliminary ownership projections,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: and shout out to Big Marley for that one fighter
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: over forty percent this week, no one else above forty percent.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: That's when you know it's a really good card. Again,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of live dogs, and that the one person
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: is Alberg, but again ninety three hundred, Like you can
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: make cases for a lot of other people around there
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: and not play Allburg. So I wanted to mention that, like,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: if you really like a certain fighter or two fight whatever,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: very easy to jam them in and make sure you
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: get overweight this week. All right, If I'm getting overweight
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: to any fighter, if I to lock any fight, it
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: would be this one. Very very interesting two guys making
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: their UFC debut, Brando Britchick minus two twenty five taking
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: on Alisha Ellison, plus one ninety Brondo or minus one
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: thousand for this fight to finish, Brondo is minus one
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: eighty five inside the distance. Ellison is plus two hundred.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Both of those insane props. Like, that's the minus one
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: eighty five inside the distance for Brondo, the highest on
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: the slate, plus two hundred for Ellison, the second highest
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: in the lower tier under one and a half is
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: minus two to twenty open minus two hundred. This fight
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: is just getting pounded, is the under a couple other
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: like interesting notes, So again both guys making their UFC
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: debut four and one for Brondo, five and one for Ellison.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Six inch height advantage does Brondo have in this one?
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, what do we expect just a slug fast
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: gross and then someone falls? Or do you have any
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: hope for these two moving forward? What's going on? No?
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I didn't, I don't. I don't know about any real hope.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: I think, uh, Brondo trains with the City Kickboxing Team,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: so he's got better people to train with. Maybe he
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: has a higher ceiling. That way, he's a bigger, taller
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: longer guy. I think he's more aggressive as well, so
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: he's the one that I think is gonna push the pace,
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: come in look for that early finish where Ellison kind
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: of struck me as like, uh, he'll sit back and
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: wait for a big, powerful shot. He's gonna try and
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: hurt you when he throws his couple of shots. But
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: Brondo's the one pushing forward, trying trying to set the
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: pace and get the really early finish. But both of
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: these guys have never been to I don't even think
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: a second round, so I'm expecting this fight to end early.
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: It's gonna have a good amount of ownership. What do
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: I have it as as like maybe sixty percent total
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: by the field and twenty percent Ellison.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if both guys took a little
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: steam there, like a forty percent. But it's really hard.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: There's just so many fights and so many fighters that
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: do it. But I know people will have that minus
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: one thousand stand out to them. But maybe the unknowns,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: just the no names, change things a little. It's tough
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: to I'm not envious of your of your job this
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: week to do ownership projections. It's really tough, but it's fine. No,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: it's I think it's the second or first highest owned
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: fight with the main event. I don't know why it
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be.
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we get a discount on the ownership
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: from the main event because people don't know who these
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: people are. They're gonna it's gonna get owned because of
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: that minus one thousand.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: But the no names I think will keep it under owned.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: And by under one, I mean.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: Let's say it is fifty five percent under own owned.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: As the field, I feel like it's eighty five percent
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: to be optimal, ninety percent to be optimal. So I'm
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: probably gonna load up on this fight. If I make
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: a rule, this is the one I want to be
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: all in on. I mean, every time I go all
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: in on one, that's where you get the nut shot
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: and it's freaking a no contest something like that. So
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: I hate being all in on anything just because I
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: that's that's just me.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: It's me.
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: I'm ruining it for everybody. Now, that's how bad of
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: my luck is, man. But this is the fight. This
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: is my favorite fight on the card. I'm gonna be
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: heavy on the Brondo side, but any lineupside don't have
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: him in. I'm guessing that Ellison will be on. I'm
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: expecting this fight to be over in the first three minutes.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I'm with you. If i'd a load up
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: on or make a rule for any fight, it would
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: be this one. If I end up getting one hundred
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: percent of this fight or ninety five or whatever, like,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna change that, Whereas almost every other fight,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: if I was getting ninety five or one hundred percent,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: even the main event, I would probably manually bump that down.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Unless I'm only playing a handful of teams, like any
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: Olbert team drop down to Brando, any Oban Elliott, Jonathan
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: Petrowsky roast in teams, you could easily drop down to Ellison,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: like he has as much upside as anyone on this car.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: If Ellison was the highest score on the slate when
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: it was all said and done, none of us would
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: be shocked one bit. So anytime you can say that
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: at seventy four hundred and a solid money line like
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: plus one eighty five or plus one ninety, now it's
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: not bad at all. I Mean we see plus one
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: nineties win all the time. So yeah, it's gonna be
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: very interesting to see how this fight goes again, little
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: pro experience for both six inch tide advantage on the
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: brondo side, whereas Ellison's just like a tank, just a
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: little dude and very stocky. So I'm really excited to
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: watch this one. And yeah, you said like it's not
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: one to invite your boys over and all that. No,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: it's not a pay per view or anything, but you
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: know me, Siggy and the boys will always be watching
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: any fights on Saturday. So hey, then nice and early,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: set that alarm for a little London football baby, little
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Vikings Pittsburgh. Gonna be a great weekend for sure. We'd
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: love to have you at the Nation. All the content MMA, NASCAR,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: college Football, NFL, we got you covered, of course, and
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: the best discord around. What's up, Marquis, good to see.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: I hope you're doing well. All right, let's keep it rolling.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, another mid tier fight, Orlando
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Bendoya taking on Jamie Malarkey minus one eighteen Malarkey minus
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: one h two Beadoya plus one twenty for this fight
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: to finish the slight dog in Bedoya better inside the
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: distance prop at two plus two fifty five Jamie Malarkey
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: plus three oh five, so looking at it was a
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: straight pick them on Monday. Now we have slight favorite
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: to the malarky side, but the underdog and the higher
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: price fighter in Bedoya has the better inside the distance prop.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, It's kind of like the first
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: fight where flip a coin. I gotta make sure you
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: can hear me. You still got me, you still got me.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: It's kind of like the first fight where you're flipping
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: a coin on getting a coin flip fight right then
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: you're getting a fight that's favored to go the distance
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: that you're almost surely needed to finish to be optimal,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: and even if it does finish, like a third round
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: finish on either side might not be enough. Like I'm
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: wanting ninety plus from every single fighter on my like
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: in my team, I want ninety plus for their score.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: I think that's what we'll see on the optimal I
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: think we're gonna be above six hundred, and we're gonna
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: see a lot of big scores since the lower tier
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: has that as well. So I do not like this
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: fight much, and I honestly prefer the Badoya side, even
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: as the slight dog and higher price, because I just
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: think he's more likely to get a finished Malarkey's been
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: knocked out six times in his eight losses. Bedoya has
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: never been finished. Now what I'll throw it to you
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: is does Malarkey have like five plus takedown upside in
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: this one? Because if you say yeah, that's when I
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: will get a little bit.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, I do think he has that kind of upside.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know how likely it is, but I'm interested
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: in this fight because Malarkey's a good minute winner, especially
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: if he looks to grapple on this one. I do
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: think he's gonna have the wrestling advantage. He's a decent
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: striker too. His chin is just a big issue, and
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: I think PADOI is gonna be our higher paced boxer
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: with the better overall hands. He doesn't really have the
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: one punch power to knock out Malarkey like these other
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: guys have, but I do think he could volume up
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Malarkey and kind of have a knockout where he lands
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: a big one and the Malarkey's stun and he just
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: keeps put punch putting it on him in the ref
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: either steps in or or ends up falling, and you
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: get that extra ten points. But I do think both
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: sides are alive for ninety five plus in this one,
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: so I'll be on it, and I think i'll play
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: it more like a four star than a two star,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: but I have it as a three star because.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I really don't have a lean either way.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: I'm picking Badoya by Knockout, but I don't feel good
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: about it, and Malarkey's two hundred cheaper. I have Malarkey
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: higher on, so that makes me like Bodoya a little
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: bit more too. Yeah, I think it's closer to a
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: four than the two did.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Well. First of all, could you hear that fan in
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: the background at all? Nah? If you can't come as them?
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: If anyone in chat. If you can't, then I hope
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: they can't. But if yeah, it's right. If anyone in chat,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: if you can hear that background, it's getting hot in here,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: so a little creaky. I don't even know. Let me know.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: If you can, I'll turn it off. What did you
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: say to my question about Malarky having five plus takedown upside?
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Do you think he does?
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, like as a ceiling, he does,
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: But I would I'd guess it's takedown, probably like two
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: and a half or something yeah, pretty sad.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: And again if if he gets three takedowns in a
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: decision win, like I don't think that's breaking ninety and
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: I want that at ak. So I'm gonna get a
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: little thanks Marky appreciate it. Like I'm not exing this
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: fight out by any means. I definitely like it more
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: than the first fight, the Elliott fight in the mid tier.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: But Padoia is definitely my preferred play lower own two
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars more the underdog, but the better inside the
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: distance prop and Malarky's been knocked out so many times,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: so give me the Bedoya side and that one is
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: my preferred DFS play. All right, let's keep it rolling.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to talk about like this fight and the
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: and the thaian Aa fight are pretty much the exact
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: same for me. So Michelle Montaigue taking on the Wana
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Carolina Michelle minus two thirty five, Luana plus two hundred,
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: this fights plus one hundred to finish, and we have
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Michelle plus one forty inside the distance Carolina plus six hundred,
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: and we talk about this one. So plus one forty
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: is monteig. I'm gonna say Michelle, because's probably not how
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: you pronounce your name plus one forty inside the distance
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: her by sub is plus one sixty open plus two
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: to twenty five now plus one sixty for her by sub.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I mean she just straight wants to get this fight
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: to the mat. When she is, she's very dangerous there.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Buana Carolina on the other side, she's big for the division,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: but as you can see, she is giving up where's
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: right here, giving up three inches in height, which isn't
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: too often. Her takedown defense has been solid, but if
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: she's put on her back, I think she's gonna be
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: in a world of trouble. With all that being said,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Luana Carolina, like Michelle's making her UFC debut. Luana Carolina
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: has been in the UFC for a while. She's seven
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: and three in the UFC. This is the girl that's
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: fought a lot better competition, has been in the organization,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: has done the walkouts, the week preps, all of that,
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: and finds herself as a plus two hundred dog. So
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: very interesting. I know DFS side. I prefer the Michelle side.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: If someone's going to dominate the prop show at everything
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: shows it it's probably her breaking the slate. But money
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: line wise, like betting. I think that's a different ballgame
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: for me. Do you think this line's a little too wide?
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Not even talking DFS your thoughts on that first, and
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: then take it into the DFS talk.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, I think I might end up betting Carolina here.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: I should really agree with everything you said. If Montague
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: gets it to the ground, she's live to win it there,
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: probably more so by submission. I mean, I don't know
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: is she good enough wrestler to grind out three minutes.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: I didn't see that much of her. I thought she
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: was more of a submission grappler.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: But I think.
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: Carolina's stuff in takedowns. She's gonna look like a minus
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: five hundred favorite here, So I definitely prefer the underdog
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: who's been there, done it, fought tougher competition. That line
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: when I saw it, shocked me, so I didn't. I
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: just got to look at this girl a little bit more.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know a ton about her. Maybe maybe it
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: is justified, and if she is gonna win, it's gonna
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: be to the ground, which should be a pretty decent score.
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: But yeah, Caroline is one of my top bets that
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: I'm ying right now.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean all six of her wins have came
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: by submission, Like it's clearly she wants to get the
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: fight to the mat. Did you see it at six
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: and oh? Once she gets to the match, she absolutely dominates.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: But how many times have we seen like a Marie Granted,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: Like coming into the UFC, she fought Sam Hughes. Granted
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: Sam Hughes got away with a little grabbing the glove,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: but once it got outside a round one and Omrine
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: didn't get that submission, like it was all Sam Hughes.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Once these girls deal with adversity or like they're first
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: or second, their third submission doesn't work and they're in
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: a dog fight and they can't get it to the mat,
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: how does it look? And if that's the case, like
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: give me the plus two hundred dog. The better striker,
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, the person that's been there, done that,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: fought the better competition. Now you're betting, or you said
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: you might bet Carolina, that's your pick? What does that
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: mean for DFS? Though? Because I could see her start
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: seventy in a win, I'm not granted. I will never
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: say no to seventy at seventy two hundred, but gone
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: into my head, I'm probably saying seventy is not enough
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: on this card in the lower range. Again, I'm telling myself,
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: we have so many live dogs and dig upside dogs
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: like I don't love care I like her as a
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: bad a lot more than DFS. But you're picking her,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: So what do you think there?
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna play her.
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: I think she's somewhat live for a late TKO as well,
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: if the takedowns aren't going montacuse way. I think if
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: it's a striking match, she might get finished here. So
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: Carolina has like a sixty to ninety range in my
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: opinion anywhere from there. So I'm not gonna be like
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: heavy on her.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I like.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: Who I like Roaston. I like him a little bit more.
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: I like his upside more anyways, But seventy two hundred,
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: if I need that five hundred to get somewhere else,
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely fine going down to Carolina. And she's not
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: gonna get much ownership either, so another probably overweight playout.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: Guess if she's gonna be sub some twenty percent, I
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: could see me right around twenty twenty five possibly maybe
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: not twenty five. I'd rather twenty.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: She for sure will. Again, I'm still even though like
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: I think Carolina is the better bet. I prefer Michelle
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: and DFS because again plus one forty inside the distance
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: her round one prop plus three to fifty, which isn't great,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: but it opened plus four hundred. She has wrestling upside.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: I just think when she wins, she's on the optimum
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: more than when Carolina wins, which I don't say very
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: often when you look at these prices. But yeah, I'm
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: really high on the lower tier this week and the
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: lower tiers upside for the most part, assuming we keep
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: all fourteen fights. If not, if things change, we'll always
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: update that in the slave plan in the fight rankings,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: et cetera. Next mid tier fights actually not mid tier
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: excuse me, it should be a mid tier fight with
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: how it's priced we have. Let me find it on
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: the There we go Hosias Musasa minus one fifty taking
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: on Kobe Thickness plus one thirty minus one forty five
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish Usasa plus one forty inside
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: the distance Thickness plus three fifteen. So the line movement
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: in this one Musasa open minus three hundred immediately went
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: down to like the minus one fifty minus one forty
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: range and the line really hasn't moved much from there. However,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: even more important line movement that I'm seeing this fight
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: open minus one twenty to finish now minus one forty five.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: I love to see that steam on the under eighty
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: seven hundred and seventy five hundred. This is the fight
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: I have some interest in. I see you have at a
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: three star, though, So what's your what's your breakdown?
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not really sure.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: I'm actually somewhat interested in this fight because I think
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: Musasa is just dangerous. He could smoke this guy early
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: and score one hundred plus points, which I do want
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: some of for sure. But if he doesn't do that,
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: I just I don't. I don't think he's gonna score
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: if it gets out of the first round. What's his
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: chances that making the optimal lineup? Because he's not gonna
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: go out there and wrestle. I don't think he's gonna
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: be trying to get a knockout.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Can he put it on enough where he just apps
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: like second round knockout, seventy significant strikes and he just
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: like keeps going downhill?
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, but maybe unless Thickness's game plan is to
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: come in and wrestle and that could take away from
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: the strikes that Musasa could put up before a TKO.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: But I do think thickness is in play for the wrestling.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, you got to go in here and try
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: and wrestle this guy, and if you can't, he's just
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: similar to a malarkey to me, like a poor man's malarkey,
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: but with the steam coming on the under. I think
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: that favors Musasa. I think this is who the UFC
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: wants to win. He's just a guy that looks powerful.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: You don't want to step in the ring with this
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: guy because you know he can knock your head clean
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: in the tenth row. Whereas the thickness, he's not anything,
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: you know, imposing. He's not gonna go super far in
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: the UFC. I don't think so I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: ride the high p One was like a minus one
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: thousand favorite in his last fight, so I think we're
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: kind of getting a discount here on the odds. If
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: he won that fight, this line wouldn't be close. I
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: don't think so give me Musasa as my preferred play,
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: my pick to win, but I'll get a little bit
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: of thickness.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and again, I think Musasa and we
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: have it that way pretty low owned in that upper
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: tier because people will see minus one fifty and eighty
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: seven hundred and just immediately be like, that's not a
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: good play. Well, we don't care about money line value,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: we care about ceiling. Especially on a card this big,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: he's plus one forty inside the distance he opened plus
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: one sixty thickness he went from plus three seventy five
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: to plus three to fifteen. Another interesting thing as well,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Thickness is more likely to win by some than Ko,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: which had even more appeal on the thickness side than original.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: Because I mean, kind of how I see it. If
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: Massasa is just a better striker and getting downhill, thickness
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: would be smart to be mixing in his mixed martial arts,
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: getting a take down here or that, and if he
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: dominates on the wrestling. We really haven't seen it much. However,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I will say it's a very short sample. I wouldn't
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: take this all this red on the stone with too much,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: like I take it with a grain of salt. The
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: sample on both of these guys has been very small
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: in the UFC, So like I think Mussas is going
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: to land more significance rikes than that. When it's all
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: said and done in the UFC, I think Thickness will
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: as well and probably average a takedown or something like that.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: So Mussausen, I prefer play, but Thickness good money line
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: value for his price. No, I'm back in Wisconsin right now,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: although it's to be honest, I probably would even though
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: I didn't move right from I was right by the stadium.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: Now I'm only like eighteen minutes. But yeah, the Island
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: games are the games I like to go to when
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: I'm home, so if I was there, I probably would.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I am in Wisconsin right now, all right. To keep
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: it rolling big. It's a pretty big favorite, but one
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: of the bigger inside the distance props on the slate
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Navajo Sterling taken on Ridolfo Balado minus two thirty five
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: Sterling plus two hundred Bilotto minus two hundred for this
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Sterling minus one ten inside the distance
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Blotto plus three sixty Sterling round one plus two forty Sterling.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna throw it to you on this So Sterling
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: a really good inside the distance prop, a very good striker,
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: good volume. I don't believe that take that like I
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: don't think he's averaging over one takedown per fifteen. Maybe
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: you can tell me I'm wrong, but it's very clear
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: both these guys are primary strikers. If there's no takedowns
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: in this one, and it let me know if you
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: see it the same, like, is our second round knockout enough?
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: That's kind of where I'm struggling with because I like
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: this fight. I like both guys, but when we compare
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: them to upper tier fighters like we did Michelle Monteega
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: whatever pronunciation, Alexa, Thayanara, Jimmy Krue, like these people in
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: the upper tier have wrestling upside, I don't really see
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: it here. So it's almost like we need a knockout
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: in the first two rounds. Do you see it the same?
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: And what are you doing in this fight? Yeah?
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: On the sterling side, I would think that we do
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: need the knockout. But Lotto, I think as a I
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: don't know if he's a black belt in jiu jitsu,
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: but he's got a grappling game. Uh So I think
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: it would be smart of him to go out there
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: and look for takedowns. I don't know that I expect
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: him to do that. I do think we'd probably get
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: a knockout in this one. He does like to throw bombs,
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: but Sterling's just a better overall striker, and I think
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: he's more durable too. A lotto's coming off and getting
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: knocked out by Paul Craig. To be honest with you,
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: that's not a good look, but uh.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Knocked out fake? I mean, what do you what's your
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: conclusion that I am more so on the fake side.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: It was the weirdest thing I saw. It looked so
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: faked that I feel like it was real, to be honest,
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: but I don't.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: Man, I was I was there too, and I was like,
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: I've got all pumped up because I needed that fight.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: I was like the one that I'm all in on.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Uh and I'm like, oh my god, did he just
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: knock him out? Let's go? And then of course no contest.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, my night's over. Okay. But I mean that
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: was only that was I don't remember when though was
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: a couple of months ago.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: But if it was real, I mean, he got knocked
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: out and he's going in there against somebody who might
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: knock him out again.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Gotta get some of it.
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: Because it could be a first rounder, but it's not
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: one that I mean, it's not a five star for
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: me for a reason. I do think that there's a
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: lot of paths where this doesn't make the optimal lineup.
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: So it's not when I'm I'm forcing into lineups at all.
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: If I end up with twenty percent on each side,
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: I'd be okay with that, but I'd say give me
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: like fifteen to forty five percent really on either side
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: of this fight. And I don't know that I have
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: a preferred play. Actually, I gotta I gotta figure out
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: who my preferred DFS play is I and I guess
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: that will depend on if I need money or if
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: I don't, based on what I like on the rest
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: of the card. But I haven't really built line hip yet.
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, I don't have a strong lean. I
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: still think it's Sterling. I just think he's a more
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: technical fighter. I think it's Sterling more technical against like
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: the athleticism and brute strength of Blato, not saying that
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have it. I just I think that the
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: ABB willbee money the low kicks, but he can take
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: his time a little bit. Even with a lot of
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: those significant strikes, like round one can be a little
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: slower for him. I also like, if we're talking about
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: someone getting steam, someone moonwalking back. I've been liking to
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: say that a lot, thinking of our man Djen up
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: in the sky. But like I could see Sterling just
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: being forgotten in the upper tier with Alberg two hundred more,
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: with Jimmy Crut two hundred less, and then like, I
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: don't think the thaian Ar is the Michelles of the world.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: I think I don't think they're gonna be sneaky. I
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: think people are gonna realize, like they can wrestle, they
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: have good inside the distance props, et cetera. And maybe
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: it's just the striker Navajo that kind of gets forgotten
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: in that range. And then I hope he gets a
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: first round knockout or something like that. So it's a
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: fight I want both of There's no doubt about that.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: But if I had eighty percent of them this fight,
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: I'm lowering that I'm manually going into sabers him, and
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: I am lowering my exposure because there's too many concerns.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: Second round knockout from Navajo eighty eight not enough. Third
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: round knockout from him definitely probably not enough decision. I
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: wouldn't love it, so I can see too many passed
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: or this fight doesn't get there. I don't want eighty
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: percent exposure, but I think this fight is pretty low
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: owned for a fight minus two hundred to finish, and
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: when you put it like that, yeah, I have interest
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: in both sides. Sterling probably might preferred if I had
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: more Blotto or was more overweight to Bloto and it
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: was all said and done, I wouldn't change anything because
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: of that. All right, Going to this next fight I've
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: been talking about, and I'm a little surprised too, stared.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: I need to hear this one Alexa or Alexia Thianara
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: taking on Lomo Lupini. We have Thianara the favorites at
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: I hat aw this. There we go minus two forty
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: Loma plus two oh five minus or plus one ninety
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: five for this fight to finish thiin Arra plus two
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: ten inside the distance Loma plus one thousand. My thoughts
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: was three point zho seven takedowns per fifteen two point
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: zero three on the Loma side. If this fight granted,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: yes open plus one eighty five now plus one ninety five,
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: the over is only taking money. But if this fight
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: plays out on the mat for eleven of the fifteen minutes,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: it could be just domination on one side. It could
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: be top control, takedowns, et cetera. Or it could be reversals.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: It could just there's so many ways that points can
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: be scored when the fight's on the mat relative to
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: when it's on the feet. Do you think that it
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: mainly plays out on the mat or do you think
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: we get the wrestling negating itself and then it stays
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: on the feet and actually boring Before you answer that, actually,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: I compared this fight in the Luana fight for the
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: same reason. Loma was a UFC bet a winning record,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: three fight winning streak, a good fighter, very disrespectful on
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: the money line, Like, if I had to make two bets,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: I'm probably just taking both dogs and Lomo Carolina and
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: just hoping like these favorites that are very short lived
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: in the UFC, like are just not who they are
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: being projected to be. Do you have any thoughts on
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: that money line as well?
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: I think this one, yeah, I do think it's probably wide.
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: But this one makes more sense just because than our
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: more well rounded too, because she could beat Loma anywhere.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: I think she's like a better version of Lom almost.
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: Loma's a better kickboxer. She's smoother on the feet, but
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: Thenara is bigger, stronger, more powerful. I think she's the
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: one that's pushing forward as well. And then Loma also
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: kind of like improved her wrestling in the UFC. In
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: my opinion, I think she was more of a pure
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: kickboxer coming in, whereas the Nara she just looks like
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: a more powerful wrestler than Lomas. I think she kind
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: of beats her to the punch there. I see this
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: fight taking place on the feet, more so on the
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: than on the ground. But either one of them could
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: mix in takedowns here.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: I do think it is uh. I might move it
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: to a three star, but I don't know how much
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be clicking on this one. I don't know
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: the upside. I really don't think Loma has much upside.
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: She has more of a Caro Carolina type of win.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: Like you mentioned, she's more live to win on the cards,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: and I don't think she's as live to win with
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: the late finish as Carolina, so she she has less
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: upside I think than Carolina, but just a live, live
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: dog for cheap.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Thenara is the.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: One that I'm a little bit interested in because I
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: think she goes overlooked in DFS and if she does
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: want to wrestle, I think she could go out and
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: do that and pretty heavily. But I also think that
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: it's just more fresh in our minds that that's what
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: she is. But that's because she beat Molly. That's the
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: easy path to beat Meatball. So uh, I think this
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: one plays out a little bit more on the feet
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: where she's not gonna be afraid of a one sided fighter.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: So that's why I have it as a two star.
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: It probably won't be too heavy on it, but I'm
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: also not gonna x out either side.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you I don't know, maybe tempered how much. I'll
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of Diyanara because just looking at props,
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: like she's four times more likely to get a submission
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: than she is a KO. Like, I think it's more
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: competitive on the feet. Diana is definitely well rounded, but
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: so is Loma. Like I just think like if she
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: can't get takedown to stay on top, like why would
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: she not do that? And if she gets one early
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: why not just keep repeating It's a lot easier to
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: spend fights on top, like than being at distance and
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: having to exchange Like there's a little more scary stuff there.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: And Thinar looks good man, she's only twenty seven three
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: inch tiight advantage six inch each advantage, Like maybe she
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: just mixes her Marshall, let's really well. But if you
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: think she get moon walks back and she's gonna be
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: the like, do you think Navajo's I should just look
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: at the ownership do we have? Navajo? Higher own we
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: do we have? Is definitely one of the lowest own
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: I'm so good going from Alberg to Thayanara Albert to Sterling,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Alberg to Michelle Alberg, Decruit Alberg Debrondo. I think that's
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: the moral of the story that I want people to know,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: and that's why leaving money's very in play. But a
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: third round, Alburg Naco could easily score eighty five or
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: something and all of these people have a lot more upside,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: or all those people can easily outscore that, they'll get
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: an ownership discount and you'll leave money on the table.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: So I think that's my main thing up top is
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: I'll be jumping a lot of Alberg Team's main events
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: to people down low. And that doesn't mean you have
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: to play Dominic rays. If you don't play Alburg like
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: you could, I'll probably be overweight on that fight fade.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: So Dianaar has has passed, but I do not like
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: seeing the over continue to take money, which has me
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: preferring the Michelle fight over this one. If having to
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: choose anything else to add on that one, otherwise take
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: us to anything else to add.
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: Now, just every time I hear Dianaar, it makes me
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: think like Mike Tyson is trying to say cyanora, and.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: That's what it comes out, and that's that's it.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Tom Nolan minus one forty eight Charlie Campbell plus one
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: twenty eight minus two hundred for this fight to finish No.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: One plus one thirty inside of the distance Campbell plus
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: two twenty five. I mean, what a good fight is
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: this one? In my opinion? Coin flip kind of. I mean,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: when you look at the pricing, like Campbell has way
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: better money line value for his price than than Nolan.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: But if you go to Nolan and look at his
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: inside the distance prop plus one thirty. We just talked
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: about someone eight or six hundred more expensive than Diyanara
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: with a plus two to ten inside the distance prop
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: So another easy example, how to leave money, build a
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: team with Dianaara, Take dian Ar out, go to Tom Nolan.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: You're not giving up any ceiling. You could be argue
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: that you're gaining ceiling. But I love seeing this on
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: the stone. Two guys that average over five significant strikes
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: per minute, Nolan only twenty five. Definitely has been disappointing
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: for Nolan. The UFC, like his Alex Rays win, he
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: was such a big favorite, like it was. It was
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: a negative win more than a positive win for most. Yeah,
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: he got knocked out in the second round, and I
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: believe that was his debut. Is a big favorite. So
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: the chin A little concern that was against Nicholas Motor right, Yeah,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: I think so, yeah, yeah, yeah, he just I mean
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: was beating him in the first round. I'm not has
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: got power, So it's not a it's not too concerned
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: worried about the changes because Mada cracked him. But I
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: mean it's a big favorite. He came in with a
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: lot of hype, very long, very big, a talented striker.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Campbell just kind of looks like a junkyard dog something
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: pretty pretty interesting. My like, I'm pretty interested in his fights.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: I think he'll have a lot of good ones in
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: the UFC moving forward. You can easily build a Tom
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Nolan team and go to Campbell and leave one thousand,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: just more points and why you can leave salary on
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: this card, But I have interest in this one. Is
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: it more of a four star or two star if
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: you had to change it?
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Four star? Definitely, I'm interested in.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Fight canceled obon the fight I was fade take it away.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm interested in this fight.
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: A lot of Nolan's regional scene fights, and really early
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: he's just way more athletic, way more dangerous, way better
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: than everyone that he was fighting. So he was in
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: and fights fast, and I think that's why he's inside
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: the distance line still good. But he doesn't have that
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: same aggressiveness inside the UFC against better opponents. So I'm
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: more worried about the ceiling on the Nolan side because
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: he could just go out there and look to point
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: fight for fifteen minutes, whereas Charlie Campbell has shown that
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: aggressiveness in the octagon.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: So I do think a Charlie Campbell.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: Win does put up a good score really no matter what,
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: and this is a good fight anywhere it takes place.
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: I could see either guy mixing in takedowns. I think
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: we do see a takedown from both guys. I think
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: we could see a knockdown from both guys in this one.
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: This is a sneaky Fire of the Night contender right here.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a fun one.
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: We probably do get a pretty decent score. But I
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: was going back and forth on the pick. I was
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: watching Nolan and thinking, yeah, I think I'm gonna pick
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: Nolan here, and then I'd go watch Campbell and think, ah, man,
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know, maybe I'll pick Campbell. And anytime I
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: go back and forth, I just think I gotta take
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: the underdog. So Campbell's my pick. I'd rather save the
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars. He will be my preferred DFS play as well.
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: But yeah, definitely closer.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: To a force than the two stuff, and I might
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: move it to a four star.
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: Actually yeah, I think it's like minus two hundred to finish.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: Very solid pricing on both sides, volume on both sides.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: I like this fight quite a bit and can leave
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: money pretty easily. I just went on Google. I didn't
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: see the fight canceled. Obviously, I trust you why I said, Man,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: that stinks, And obviously it's not a fight that I
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: cared about for DFS, but all fights get ownership. Like
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to say play in that fight was
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: paying the rake, but I was kind of treating it
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: that way. I mean, hey, maybe it would have scored
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: one hundred and ten and it saved me because I
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: hardly would have had any So there's always two ways
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: to look at it. Arcel tweet perfect that is that's
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: the absolute man. So thirteen fight card fingers crossed. Now
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: we keep all thirteen. I mean, twelve fights is always
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: the magic number for me. But each fight you add
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: after that just continues to spread out ownership more and more,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: continues to eliminate dupes. And it's already a really good
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: card anyway. So thirteen fights, let's keep it there. We're
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: in for a good one. Let's get to the next
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: fight on the card. The highest priced and biggest favorite
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: on the card. Jake Matthews minus four ten, Neil Magny
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: minus three ten or minus four ten Jake Matthews plus
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: three ten for Neil Magni minus one oh five for
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish Matthews plus one forty inside the
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: distance Magny plus five point fifty. Yeah, I don't love it,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: and you don't love it either. With the two star like,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: this fight's favored to go the distance minus won twenty
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: five to go the distance, minus one oh five to
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: finish over two and a half minus won forty. Just
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: say Jake Matthews gets a third round knockout. I don't
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: think that's enough at ninety six hundred. Give me Tom
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Noan for one k last Dianaara Michelle Sterling, like I
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: don't want I can easily leave money not playing Jake Matthews.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'm really giving much up. I just why.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think he wrestles that much and Neil Magney
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: can make it boring. He wants it in the clinch
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: against the fence. I think Matthews wins. I think the
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: leg kicks will be money. He's the career best as
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: of late. But it's tough to put Magnie away and
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: he's ninety six hundred. So yeah, I don't love it.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: What about you? Yet?
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Don't love it at all?
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: I think the reason you play Matthews is just to
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: get different on this card. You pay up to get different.
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: Because I put him in there, I think he's over
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: on the way I have him. I'm probably gonna have
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: to lower that down a little bit. And it's not
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: too owned as is, and it's this line to me,
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: is just Recncy biased coming off his most recent fight
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: looking really good. But Magni really showed up for his
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: last fight too, And I don't know anywhere that Jake
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: Matthews should be an eighty percent favorite over Magni, Like,
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: is he an eighty percent favorite if he strikes or
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: if he wrestles, or if he's trying to submit him.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: I don't really know.
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's an eighty percent favorite anywhere. I
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: think it's gonna be a pretty close fight. And if
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: I'm just playing a couple of lineups, there's no way
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: I'm really getting to Matthews. Magnie's my preferred play. I
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: think he might go out there and win this one.
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: He's another underdog I'm looking at betting. I actually kind
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: of wish I already did better. I feel like he
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: was a bigger underdog when I looked at.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: This no, he's it's only gone the other way. Really. Yeah,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: it was plus uh let's see last week to this day.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: On Thursday, it was plus four to twenty five. Yeah,
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: four plus four twenty five plus four under.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: So I mean I prefer to have that tweaking.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: I'm full tweaking.
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's I mean, I don't mind it though
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: as is to I think it's still just too it's
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: just too wide as is. So Magni could go out
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: there and win and score one hundred points, and I
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: think that's more likely than it is when when Matthews wins,
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I think he scores one hundred more than Matthews does
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: in this much. That's a hot If Matthews does score
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: one hundred, I think it has to be like a
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: first round submission. That is one of Magne's bigger weaknesses.
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: But Matthews doesn't always look as good as he did
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: in his last fight, and I don't expect that same
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: thing to come out and just be as dominant in
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: the first round.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: So Matthew's the pick. I do think he's a little
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: bit better, but man, all all the values on Magni.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what my brain was thinking, right, there,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: but Matthew's open minus three hundred got all the way
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: down as low as minus seven hundred. Then shortly after
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Magne took a good bit of money, went to minus
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: four fifty, got down to minus six hundred, and then
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: slowly but surely Magni has been taking money and he's
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: as low as it. Oh, he got down to minus
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: three seventy five two days ago, and now it's minus
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: four ten, So one of the lowest that like one
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: of the best prices. That one of the worst prices
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: you'll get, Magni. But the lines moved a lot minus
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: three hundred open all the way to minus seven hundred
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: and now minus four to ten, like that's jumped all
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: over the place. I don't love this fight. I won't
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: even be playing much Magni. Like if I had to
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: fade two fight, we'll shoot now. Actually, I probably will
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: even have less of this fight because I had that
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: first fight. Oban Elliott is a complete fade, and now
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: I needed I always try and have four fades at
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: least I'll be changing probably Jake Matthews to a fade
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: I already had Magni, and I'll just fade this fight period.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: This next fight I think might have to be one
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: side of the fade too, And I say you only
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: have it as a two star Jack Jenkins minus two
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: eighty Ramon Tavares plus two forty plus one twenty five
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish Jenkins plus one seventy Tavares
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: plus five seventy five. My question to you how much
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: does Jack Jenkins wrestle? Because I think he probably needs
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know, assuming this fight does go the distance
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: or at least gets to the third round like it's
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: favored at ninety four hundred, he probably needs four plus takedowns.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: I would say, do you think he has that in him?
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: What do you see this? How do you see this
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: fight going?
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: I think he has it in him. Sure, I don't
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: think it happens, though.
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: I think this fight more so plays out on the feet,
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: and he probably works on chopping down Tavar's leg as
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: the fight moves along, and then maybe a late finish
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: is more in play if he isn't worried about the
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: Lakes at that point.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: His kicks are so nasty.
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's just a better all around striker really,
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: but the Lake kicks I think are gonna kind of
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: take over here, whereas Tavar is just he's just trying
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: to hurt Jenkins, where Jenkins is fine being a fifteen
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: minute fight here and just being the more skilled striker,
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: and he is the better wrestler, and if he wants
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: this to be more of an easy, not easy, but
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: less risky fight, than he should go out there and wrestle.
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: He could go thirty twenty seven this guy. But the
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: Australians love him. Maybe they don't want to see that.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Who knows.
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: But at the same time, if he's clearly beating this guy,
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: maybe they do want to see that. I have no idea,
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: but Jenkins my preferred play. I don't think he'll get
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: too much ownership either. He's my preferred way to pay
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: up to get different. But again I don't think we
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: really need him or Matthews. We don't have to pay
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: it for either one of them. We could leave money
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: on the table if we can afford it this week.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: So my preferred play is actually Jenkins here. Tavar is
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: in play for the knockout, but I'd rather take my
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: chances on other dogs on this card. Personally, with one fifty,
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: definitely get some Tavars, but I'm not making one fifty.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't x any of these twenty six fighters twenty
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: eight even if the Oban fight was on, like I
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: would play every single fighter in one hundred and fifty
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: and again, I have been preaching that more and more
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: as of late. It was the Hamzak card, like when
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: it just went dog Dog Dog code ever to start
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: and cool we had like Laron Murphy, even the favorites
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: I didn't like all got there. Like that was the
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: card that you know what, even if I have them
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: as fades. Again, that's mainly if you're playing five eighteens,
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: even in twenty teams. Now, if I'm getna sprinkle of
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: these guys I have as a fade, I'm rolling with it.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: This is the highest variant sport, one of the highest
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: variant sports that we play. A lot of random stuff happens.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: I just want to embrace it. Usually like if sabers
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: getting it, they're probably really low owned. They fit a
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: chalk your lineup like it just makes something work because
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: I do. I worry about the dupes. That's what I
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: look at the end of the day. I don't want
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: to be holding hands with two hundred people when I win.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: I want to win more of the money, but it
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: isn't getting harder harder to do in MMA, There's no
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: doubt about that. But I don't love this fight. Definitely
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: not playing Tavars if I had little teams, probably wouldn't
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: really get to jack either with little teams as well. Yeah,
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I just like like the fight or the Jenkins and Matthews.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: Give me no One, give me thine Ar, give me Navajo,
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: give me Michelle, give me Parachiic like all of those
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: guys for cheaper have just as much upside, if not
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: more in my opinion, and you get to leave the
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: money on the table. But I do think he is
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: going to be relatively low owned is Jenkins and Matthews.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: But still if you leave zero dollars with both of them, like,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure that team alone will be lower duped
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: than if you left five hundred and drop down somewhere.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: So I do prefer dropping down to these two mainly
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: mid tier fight my favorite of the card in terms
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: of just the mid tier fights in general heavyweight fights.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: We have justin top of minus one sixteen Louis Sutherland
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: minus one zero four minus two fifty for this fight
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: to finish Tafa plus one oh five inside the distance
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: Sutherland plus two thirty five. I was a little surprised
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: to see such a wide gap in the inside the
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: distance props when we're talking to fight minus two fifty
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: to finish. That's a coin flip on the money line?
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: Did that surprise you would all see in plus one
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: oh five and plus two plus two thirty five inside
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: the distance? And I guess does it like? Do you
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: see it the same? Does top I have more upside
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: than Louis? Like the inside the distance prop shows?
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't really think either one of these
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: guys are very skilled. It's kind of just that they're
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: big and they can throw big shots. So if this
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: fight goes the distance, man, I'm be falling asleep, that's
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: for sure.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: And neither one of them is gonna score well because
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: they're not wrestler. So I think we're playing for a
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: first round knockout here. I guess at their price a
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: second round knockouts okay too?
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Huh yeah?
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: So fight man? What fight enters round three? I feel
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: like we should like cap our ownership at whatever.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: That is under two and a half is minus two hundred.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: I am not seeing on bet fight odds for them
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: to have the start round three. So that's the best
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: thing I got minus two hundred for Yeah, you'd have
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: some other book. I don't know what book has stuff
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: like that, you know.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: I feel like DraftKings might have something along the lines,
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: but I'm not sure.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: But under two and a half minus two hundred over
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: one and a half minus one thirty four, so I
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: don't know if or minus one fifty at this book,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: so I don't know one seventy five ish.
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: So this is the fight that I would want to
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: take that kind of line into my DFS play because
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: if it's a third round, if it gets to the
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: third round, we're saying that neither one of them has
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: a chance to score well at all, and at their prices,
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: they're probably not making the optimal lineup. So just play
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: it as if it's a first or second round win.
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: Don't really care who my pick is. It's probably a
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: decent chance at the optimal if that's the case. But
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: these guys, you just want them to fight in a
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: foam booth and see one of them go down. But
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: if this goes the distance, it could be a fifty
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: point score for the winner. My preferred play is just
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: Sutherland because he was the underdog when I looked at it,
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: and not by much. He just had a plus I
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: think it was like plus one oh five. I'm not
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: impressed with Tafa. I'm not impressed with the people he's
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: trained with his entire career. He's like the last one left,
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: I feel him and his brother, and I don't think
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: that lasts much longer either. If Sutherland actually gets on
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: top of Tafa, if Sutherland wants to wrestle, I think
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: he could land a takedown and get a.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Ground and pound finish.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: It's just tough, it's freaking huge. I think it's gonna
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: be hard to take him down. I don't think Sutherland
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: is a wrestler.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know.
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: This one is just I would look at odds on
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: the first and second round type of finishing and try
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: and incorporate that into your DFS play, But I'd rather
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: save the money.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's really sharp, and I think when
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: it's all said and done, just looking at our preliminary
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: ownership project actions and where I'm guessing that the like
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: fight to start round like or to finish in round
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: one and two or start round three, Like I think
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: it's probably like a minus one sixty five range that
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: it finishes in one or two. And if that's the case,
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: we're looking at like sixty two percent. We have it
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: a little above fifty percent in projections. So I do
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: think just when you say it alone and I like that,
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: but I guess you can circle back a little. Maybe
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: not all second round finishes are optimal, which I would agree,
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Like you can get a second a really really boring
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: first round finish or first round period, and then the
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: second round you get a knockout scores like eighty four
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: tougha eighty four at eighty four hundred, I.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: Mean it has you don't get the knock down, Yeah,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: something like that.
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: Random stuff can happen there. So I guess, yeah, not
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: even like the odds can do it. But maybe you
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: have to take a little little juice off there, a
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: little back on the number, because not one hundred percent
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: of second round finishes get there, So maybe it is
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: pretty even. But I still think like fifty percent of
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: this this is my favorite mid tier fight. We will
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: I will say though, ownership might go a little higher
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: on these two guys because the Oban Jonathan fight, not
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: that it was getting much, but it's just right there
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: in the mid tier. If that fights off it was
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: getting some people will see that minus two fifty and
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: it might even get a little more steam, which I
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: do not love. But it's a thirteen fight card. You
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: can play this fight and clearly get different in so
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: many other spots we've talked about how to leave money
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: lower Neil Magne, if you play him, you like him
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: like Big Marley does, you don't even really have to
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: worry about too much after that. So I'm not really
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: worried about getting different on this card. I'll be playing
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: both guys regardless what ownership is. But I do like
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: your thoughts looking at the prop for this fight to
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: finish in one or two and then kind of basing
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: it off of that. Aren't two fights left? Great co
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: main event, very good main event as well. Appreciate everyone
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: hanging out all we ask again like button subscribe button
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: helps us out a ton And if you do want
• 56:55
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• 56:58
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• 57:01
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• 57:06
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• 57:09
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• 57:11
  Speaker 2: get in the discord if you do join the best
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: community around. Banger fight five star, five star to finish
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: it off, and we had one five star below. I
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: don't disagree with any of them anytime. Jimmy Krutz fighting,
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: it's almost always a five star fight for me. He
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: takes on ivon ersulin minus one ninety eight cruit plus
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: one sixty eight Erslin minus three twenty five for this
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Crup plus one oh five inside the
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: distance ersline plus one eighty five, so Erslin the best
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: inside the distance prop in the lower tier Krut, I
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: mean this, dude, We'll just wrestle, wrestle, wrestle, wrestle. That's
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: what you love for someone up the top. Like give
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: me Krute over Alberg all day long for the four
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: hundred savings. When we're talking upside, it just feels whatever
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: he wins or however he does. If he wins, it's
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: really hard for him not to score because I'm the feat.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: He's so hittable, like he can he swells up. He
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: doesn't wear it really well. So when he gets in
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: a barber like that, a he'll just swing back crazy
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: and he has power himself, or that'll force him to
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: wrestle more. And that's what you want for dfs. So
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: I so many pass this fight get there. This fight
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: gets there, and ursuline at seventy three hundred. I mean,
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: I'll any win really minus three twenty five to finish,
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: like probably scores unless it's cruit all in round one
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: and then Ersline knocks him out like thirty seconds into
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: round two. That's like the only thing I can really see.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: But I mean that's I'm masterminding stuff right now, Like
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: I that's not likely to happen. So I think the
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: winners on the optimal I want a lot of this fight.
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Crewit's gonna be my definite preferred play here.
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: He's one of my favorite fighters on the card because
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: he should go out there and look to wrestle here,
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: and if he does, he could dominate the wrestling game
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: for the first two rounds and I'll guess if he
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: finishes with the submission in those rounds too. But at
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: the same time, I think he would slow down as
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: the fight moves on. But Erslin's not the kind of
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: guy who's really gonna start to pick up the pace.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: I don't think as crewt gases, Ursuline is more of
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: a big power puncher. He's gonna knock out Crew if
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: he wins. I don't think if you turn knockouts off.
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: I don't even know that Ersline wins a striking match here.
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: If it's a fifteen minute striking match, I think it
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: would be pretty close. Actually, but Crew more hit able,
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: does wear it, and he could get knocked out or something.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: Has power cruit not the greatest or ability. So I
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: think we're playing for one hundred plus for a knockout
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: on the Ersline side, or Crew probably dominates him on
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: the ground scores one hundred plus himself. So this is
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: my second or third favorite fight on the card, probably
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: second favorite fight on the card. And I'll just be
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: heavy on the Crew side, way overweight there, and then
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: maybe match the field on ersline so I don't get
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: burned too much. But I'm not really trying to force
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: an overweight play on the Ursuline side because I don't
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: think he does any actual scoring along in the fight
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: other than the knockout, like a ninety point first round
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: win bonus plus your ten point knockdown Yeah, that's fair.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: I mean Ursuline in round one plus five hundred, that's
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: sixteen percent. His ownership probably a little higher, but maybe
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: not much higher. Again, the best inside the distance prop
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: in his range at plus one eighty five plus one
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: eighty five, they're giving him a thirty five percent chance.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: Excuse me to win this fight inside the distance. When
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: you just look at that number alone and his price
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: and you compare it to his ownership, it'll be hard
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: for me not to get overweight urslon I will force
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: myself to be really overweight, or at least with the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: field on crute. So just naturally, I'm going to have
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: a bunch of this fight. It is my second favorite
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: fight behind the Purchase and Ellison fight. So let's take
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: us into the main event, which would be my third
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: highest or my third favorite fights on the card. Minus
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: two to fifty all Berg plus two to ten Rays
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: minus three twenty five for this fight to finish hold
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: on there, it goes minus three seventy five for this
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Alburg minus won sixty. Inside the distance,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: reyes plus three hundred. But because the main event always
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: gets elevated ownership and like on a fight like this,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: it doesn't even make sense for it too, when it's
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: minus three seventy five to finish and under two and
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: a half is minus one thirty five. Like the extra
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: ten minutes for this fight, it's a twenty five minute fight.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: We probably don't even see that, So it gets elevated
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: ownership just because it has a possibility for an extra
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: ten minutes when in large, like in retrospect, if this
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: fight gets to the fourth or fifth round, it's probably
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: not going to get there. Like I see, I really
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: struggle seeing this fight be one hundred eighty significant strike
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: on both sides in just like a complete war. I
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: think someone's chin would go out. I mean the year
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: he Dominic Reys fight was like looking like that until
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: that crazy like spinning back elbow or whatever. But I
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: don't think he has the chance for that. I just
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: think both guys are worried about the other's power enough
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: where I just don't see the six point seven seven
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: cit inf it strikes per minute or five point five
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: eight playing out in this fight. Let me know if
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: you think I'm wrong. But that's why I like an
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: Auburg second round could be ninety not enough first round.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: Of course, it would get there, but under one and
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: a half is plus one thirty. Like this fight's expected
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: to go into round two, it's gonna get a lot
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: of ownership. I think, probably over owned. I like the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: Crew and the Brondo fight more so I'll probably be
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: overweight to the fight Fade and honestly, Rays is my
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: preferred side in this one. The only reason I'm saying
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: that is because any knockout in any round, I feel
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: a lot better about being optimal than I do at
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: ninety three hundred, easier to leave money. Like Alburg probably wins,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: but I don't really I'm not. That's not the business
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: we're in right now, at least that we're talking dfs.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: So Ray is my preferred side. Fight Fade my probably
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: preferred side in this fight as a whole, and I
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: plan to be underweight on Albert.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I moved it down to a four star. I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: think it does make sense to kind of fade this fight. Well,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: I don't know, not fade this fight start because it
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: could be a first round knockout either way, but if
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: it makes it to the third round, I do think
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: that Ray is the only one that has a real
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: chance at the optimal lineup. Uh and This is gonna
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: be the opposite of that brand Ow Ellison fight, where
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be elevated ownership, not only because the extra
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: two rounds.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: And the main event, but on a card where a
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: casual is not.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: Gonna know like any of these names. They're gonna know
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: these names and that's really it. So that's gonna draw
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: a little bit of ownership too. So I do think
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: it is over owned by the field. And if this
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: does go the distance, I don't even know that ray
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: Is would make the optimal lineup, but he would be
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: really the only one with the chance I would. I
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: think it is gonna be a slower pace, more technical fight,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: because you don't want to come out there trying to
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: take their head off with a five round fight and
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: blow your load in the first round. So I do
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: think that this is going to be more slower paced
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: striking match. But it could only take one shot from
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: both of these guys. I'm picking Oldberg to win. I
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: do think he gets the.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: Knockout, but at his ownership, at his price, I do
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: think it makes a pretty good Yeah. I mean I
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: like a crew a lot more than him now, and
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I like.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: Who was it?
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Where are we said brand.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: Ow a lot more as well. Yeah, yeah, so those
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: are like my clear top two plate uh and then
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: ober Oberg's fine, Like if you have have the money
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: to get there and have ways to get different in
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: your lineup, Like I feel like if you have Crew
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: and brand Now in there already, then you really got
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: to think it different ways to get different with your
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: other three. But yeah, like if I'm clicking names in
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: the upper range, those are probably the first three that
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: I'm looking to click. It's just you're really on a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: time limit with Olberg's win and uh scoring potential.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and for that reason, with him being the highest
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: owned fighter on the hard and his price tag on DraftKings, Like,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: probably the biggest way I'll be getting different is plugging
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: in Alberg and dropping him to multiple other fighters in
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: the high ak low nine K range and going about
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: it that way. Again, I think with the name value,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: like you said, and this fight just all main events
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: get more steam. It doesn't make sense for this fight
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: to get more steam when it's not favored to go
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: to those championship rounds, and you don't want it to
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: go to those championship rounds. So if this fight was
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: a three round fight. Let's say Jack Jenkins was the
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: main event. I just picked a random fight, Like you
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: could see Alberg at thirty four percent own, you could
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: see Reyes at like I don't know, sixteen, You know
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: what I'm saying. Like the ownership would be a lot
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: less than it is than it is in the main event,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: and it really is for no other reason than just
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: people like seeing it at up top. They like having
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: the last fight on the card. It's just how most
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: UFC cards are. It's just kind of like they're trained
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: to do that in their mind, and I don't think
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: that's really right on this card. So to wrap it
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: all up, we did lose. Shout out to y I
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: send for letting us know we did lose the Oban
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Elliott Jonathan fight. So everything will be updated, productions, ownership,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: everything will be out tomorrow. Like always, I'm excited for
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: some fights. Man, a week off. We have a lot
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: of cards in a row, Australia Live Crowd, thirteen fights. Hey,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: let's win some money, Big Marley, what do you say?
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: How are we doing finish it off for us? Yeah?
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: Good to be.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: A week off always recharges me.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: So it's good to be back and I think that
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: this could be a nice profitable card to come back
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: to hoping so, but good luck to you title, good
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: luck to everybody listening.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: Let's ship it and then let's ship it again on
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: Sunday too.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: Absolutely appreciate all the support. Again, like Bun hops us
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: out of tone, join us at the nationship in nation
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: dot com. Join the Nation, you can see all of
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: our different prices, all of our different packages. We would
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: absolutely love to have you and hey YSM Marquee watching
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: us during the NFL game, participating in chat. You guys
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: are the main hope you win some cheese this week.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: I hope everyone out there does well again. Everything will
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: be up tomorrow on Friday. Any changes anything, we will
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: let everybody know in the discord. Enjoy your weekend, Hopefully
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: it's filled with a lot of sports. With some extra
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: money in your draft Kings or fan duel account. That's
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: going to do it for us though for Big Marley
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: untitled town peace safe, Enjoy the weekend. Peace,