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How airlines are paying the cost of Iran war · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: I'm Pablo Folli LEAs. Welcome to DW News. Tens of
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  Speaker 1: thousands of people are desperately trying to leave the Middle
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  Speaker 1: East as the war between Iran, the US and Israel
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  Speaker 1: affects more and more places in the region. With drones
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  Speaker 1: and missiles flying through the sky. Airports in Gulf states
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  Speaker 1: like the United Arab Emirates and Katar are experiencing major disruptions.
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  Speaker 1: According to the International Maritime Organization, there are some twenty
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  Speaker 1: thousand seafarers and around fifteen thousand passengers on cruise ships stuck.
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  Speaker 2: On their vessels.
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  Speaker 1: So for more on this, I can speak to Giorgio Cafierro.
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  Speaker 1: He's a Middle East analyst and CEO and founder of
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  Speaker 1: Gulf State Analytics. That's a Washington, DC based geopolitical risk
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  Speaker 1: consulting firm. He also serves as an adjunct assistant professor
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  Speaker 1: at Georgetown University, also in Washington, DC.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome to DW News.
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  Speaker 1: So, first and foremost, how widespread are these sport disruptions
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  Speaker 1: in the Middle East?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, Pablo is so great to be with you. You know,
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  Speaker 3: Since the American Israeli war on Iran began late last month,
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  Speaker 3: global aviation has been impacted severely. You know, the airports
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  Speaker 3: in GCC countries, especially those in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha,
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  Speaker 3: these are really the global crossroads and so many people
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  Speaker 3: all over the world fly through these airports every single day.
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  Speaker 3: Just during the first four days of this conflict, there
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  Speaker 3: were nine five hundred flights that got canceled. This impacted
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  Speaker 3: the travel plans of one point five million people. This
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  Speaker 3: is having a huge impact on many different industries as
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  Speaker 3: so many different companies rely on these airports. And as
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  Speaker 3: long as this crisis is going on in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 3: many airlines in Europe Asia are going to have to
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  Speaker 3: travel around the Middle East and they're going to be
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  Speaker 3: huge costs associated with this. You know, the flights are
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  Speaker 3: going to be longer, they're going to require more fuel
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  Speaker 3: for the airlines. Fuel is one of the main operational costs.
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  Speaker 3: And also on top of this, the conflict is causing
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  Speaker 3: energy prices.
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  Speaker 4: To go up.
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  Speaker 3: So the airlines in the Gulf and elsewhere are paying
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  Speaker 3: severely for this war. And I think until we have
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  Speaker 3: a ceasefire in place, the situation is going to remain
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  Speaker 3: very bleak for the aviation sector.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, Georgia, I was actually taking a look there at
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  Speaker 1: some of these radar websites that you can find, and
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  Speaker 1: you see where the flights are basically avoiding that whole area.
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  Speaker 1: But I have seen that some flights have been taking
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  Speaker 1: off from Dubai and from Abu Dhabi airports, but only
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  Speaker 1: a fraction is what I've been reading as well. So
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  Speaker 1: what does that mean then for all the stranded passengers
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  Speaker 1: who are either trying to leave that region or are connecting.
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  Speaker 1: They were just simply there trying to get home and
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  Speaker 1: it was a connecting flight. And because of course you're
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  Speaker 1: dealing with like all types of passengers, right from tourists
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  Speaker 1: to business travelers, and it really depends then on each
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  Speaker 1: person's country essentially is it or how is it working?
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  Speaker 2: Tell us more.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the cost of travel has skyrocketed because of these
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  Speaker 3: factors you're discussing. At the same time, what we're seeing
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  Speaker 3: in the Gulf right now is that actually a lot
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  Speaker 3: of the aviation that is taking place is now going
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  Speaker 3: on through Muscott. You know, Muscot is one of the
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  Speaker 3: cities in the GCC that has not been hit by
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  Speaker 3: any of Iran's retaliatory attacks, and so many people who
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  Speaker 3: were in the other GCC states, you know, UAE, Saudi
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  Speaker 3: Cultar and so on. They're coming to Muscot by land,
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  Speaker 3: you know, sometimes traveling over a thousand kilometers to get
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  Speaker 3: to Muscot from other parts of the Arabian Peninsula in
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  Speaker 3: flying out of Muscot. So it goes without saying this
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  Speaker 3: is obviously created extremely huge inconveniences for so many people.
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  Speaker 4: We're talking about.
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  Speaker 3: Students, tourists, businessmen, migrant workers, all kinds of people from
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  Speaker 3: around the world who have to get to the golf
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  Speaker 3: or have to get home from the golf for transiting
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  Speaker 3: the golf. All types of people around the world are
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  Speaker 3: being impacted by what's going on with this conflict and
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  Speaker 3: its impact on the aviation sector.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean mostot of course being in Oman.
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  Speaker 1: I mean I've seen as well that there are flights
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  Speaker 1: also from Saudi Arabia and people are basically buzzing it
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  Speaker 1: across the border, right and in many cases trying to
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  Speaker 1: get to these airports. But how are local authorities dealing
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  Speaker 1: with this and how are they trying to help people
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  Speaker 1: who are stuck in say the UAE or in cutter.
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  Speaker 4: Well, it's a really serious crisis.
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  Speaker 3: You know, there are a lot of arrangements made to
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  Speaker 3: help out passengers when plans get interrupted because of weather
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  Speaker 3: or other issues, but typically the policies don't address war.
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  Speaker 3: So this is a crisis that it's not that it's unprecedented,
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  Speaker 3: but it's a very difficult situation and it's posing a huge,
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  Speaker 3: huge problem for these countries. I think obviously the hope
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  Speaker 3: is that things will de escalate soon, but until there
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  Speaker 3: is de escalation, these cancelations and disruptions are going to continue,
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  Speaker 3: and I really think until it cease fire is in place,
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  Speaker 3: we're not going to see these airports operating as they
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  Speaker 3: normally do and as millions of people each day count
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  Speaker 3: on them.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's a it's a it's a huge
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  Speaker 1: business of course for these airports, you know, Dubai, Doha,
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  Speaker 1: Abu Dhabi and essentially you know, the Gulf States presented
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  Speaker 1: themselves as these sort of modern safe tourist hubs, business
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  Speaker 1: hubs as well. Do you think the war will have
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  Speaker 1: a longer lasting effect on tourism or business in fact
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  Speaker 1: to these countries, Well.
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  Speaker 3: The short answer is yes, and I just to you know,
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  Speaker 3: address the important point you're making. It's been an important
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  Speaker 3: part of the cutlery brand or the uae S brand,
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  Speaker 3: that these countries have airports that are very important and
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  Speaker 3: hubs when it comes to global travel, connecting millions of
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  Speaker 3: people every day who are.
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  Speaker 4: Flying all over the planet.
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  Speaker 3: And the brand is really built on the stability and
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  Speaker 3: the prosperity of these countries. So when we are experiencing
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  Speaker 3: a crisis like the one we are right now, it
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  Speaker 3: completely shatters that image. I mean these strikes on airports,
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  Speaker 3: also the missile attacks, the drone attacks that are going on,
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  Speaker 3: also the heat seeking air defense systems that many countries
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  Speaker 3: that are caught up in this conflict are using. All
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  Speaker 3: of this makes aviation very unsafe, and I think beyond
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  Speaker 3: just aviation when we're talking about the just the notion
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  Speaker 3: of the Gulf States being stable, being very safe tourism destinations.
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  Speaker 3: What we have to realize right now is that there's
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  Speaker 3: a new precedent set and that is that Iran is
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  Speaker 3: very comfortable hitting civilian sites in the GCC States. We
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  Speaker 3: may have a ceasefire that can lead to this conflict
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  Speaker 3: freezing for a certain amount of time, but there's, like
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  Speaker 3: I said, a precedent that's set that when these tensions
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  Speaker 3: escalate and when Israel bombs Iran. The Iranians have crossed
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  Speaker 3: this red line in terms of attacking civilian sites, civilian
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  Speaker 3: targets in the GCC countries, and I think that that's
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  Speaker 3: going to have a lasting impact on the image of
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  Speaker 3: the GCC countries as safe, stable, and prosperous parts of
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  Speaker 3: the world.
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  Speaker 1: One thing is that one of our colleagues, in fact,
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  Speaker 1: in her reporting, was talking about the fact that in Israel,
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  Speaker 1: for example, you know, there's a warning system for when
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  Speaker 1: there's say, incoming rockets or.
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  Speaker 2: Anything like that.
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  Speaker 1: In the case of countries like say Katar or d Uae,
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  Speaker 1: is that sort of something that's in place. Are people
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  Speaker 1: receiving warnings of incoming you know, drones.
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  Speaker 2: Or what's happening there? How are they dealing with that?
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  Speaker 3: Well, of course there are air defense systems in these
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  Speaker 3: countries that are you know, critical right now at a
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  Speaker 3: time in which Iranian missiles and drones are coming in.
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  Speaker 3: But as we've discussed, this certainly contributes to the dangers
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  Speaker 3: you know, flying in this part of the world right
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  Speaker 3: now as this conflict is going on. Sometimes these systems
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  Speaker 3: can misread an object and hid an airplane.
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  Speaker 1: Tell us, under which circumstances can an air card or
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  Speaker 1: be declared as safe.
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  Speaker 4: You're asking when getting an air corridor declared?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, because I mean the one thing that you know,
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  Speaker 1: we were talking about this before in the newsroom was that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, looking at the radars, you know, we know
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  Speaker 1: that there are or we've seen reports for example of
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  Speaker 1: you know, drone drone still hitting these these countries, but
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  Speaker 1: also flights are appear to be some flights at least
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  Speaker 1: have been landing or leaving some of these airports. As
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  Speaker 1: a passenger, would you know, how can you how are
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  Speaker 1: they deciding that it's safe to leave or not leave
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  Speaker 1: these airports?
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  Speaker 3: You know, I do actually, I actually do not know
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  Speaker 3: the specific answer to that. That's a very good question.
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  Speaker 1: Though, Yeah, because I mean it's definitely one that I
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  Speaker 1: think a lot of people are wondering who are in
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  Speaker 1: those areas. But also with regards that we haven't discussed
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  Speaker 1: the fact that, of course there are also many tours
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  Speaker 1: who were on cruise ships who are also stuck there
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  Speaker 1: in the region, and also the strait of war Moos
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  Speaker 1: and the safety there.
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  Speaker 2: At what point is that also.
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  Speaker 1: Going to be deemed safe or is that just a
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  Speaker 1: question that can't really be answered quite right?
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  Speaker 4: Now.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think as long as the American and Israeli
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  Speaker 3: strikes on Iran continue, the straight up order moves will
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  Speaker 3: be obstructed by the Iranians who have made it very
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  Speaker 3: clear that they're not going to allow ships to go
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  Speaker 3: through the strait. I think that it will become a
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  Speaker 3: safe passage after some ceasefire is eventually put in place.
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  Speaker 3: How soon that will be, we have absolutely no idea.
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  Speaker 3: But I do not, just to repeat, I do not
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  Speaker 3: think the straight up order moves will be safe until
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  Speaker 3: there is some sort of a freezing of this conflict
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  Speaker 3: in the dust eventually settles.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Georgia, we're going to leave it there, but
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  Speaker 1: great to get your analysis. Georgio Kafierra, Middle East and
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  Speaker 1: the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, Washington, DC
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  Speaker 1: based geopolitical risk consulting and also an adjunct assistant professor
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  Speaker 1: at Georgetown University. Always great to get your analysis.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: All right, that's all we have time for, but do
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  Speaker 1: send us your questions and comments. Is always great to
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  Speaker 1: get those, but from me and the.
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  Speaker 2: Team here in Berlin. Thanks for watching.
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  Speaker 4: Take care,