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Will the World's Most Powerful People Lose Their Jobs? · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The title of the world's most powerful people will soon
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  Speaker 1: be up for grabs. No, we're not talking about elections
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: in the US or Germany or what's happening behind the
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: scenes with China's Communist Party. Since this is a podcast
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  Speaker 1: about global economics, you might guess that we are referring to, Yes,
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  Speaker 1: the heads of the world's major central banks, the people
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  Speaker 1: who essentially control the price of money, which affects the
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  Speaker 1: prices of just about everything else people buy and sell.
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  Speaker 1: So who are these people and what's going to happen
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  Speaker 1: to them? Let's find out today on Benchmark. I'm Scott
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  Speaker 1: Landman and economics editor with Bloomberg and Washington. You know,
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  Speaker 1: I'm Daniel Most, Global economics rode for Bloomberg View in
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  Speaker 1: New York. So, Dan, we spent a lot of time
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  Speaker 1: in our careers covering central banking. Uh, there have been
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  Speaker 1: times when it was pretty exciting, times when it was
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  Speaker 1: it boring. But what makes the next two years exciting? Well,
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  Speaker 1: There's been a lot of discussion about President Donald Trump's
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  Speaker 1: ability to reshape the Federal Reserve given the vacancies that
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  Speaker 1: are coming up. But the much broader picture is in
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  Speaker 1: the next couple of years we could potentially see new
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  Speaker 1: heads of central banks in every major economy. Janet Yellen's
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  Speaker 1: term is up in February. Two months later, Hirohiko Coroda's
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  Speaker 1: term finishes in April in London. Bank of England Governor
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  Speaker 1: Mark Karney departs in as does Mario Dragi, head of
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  Speaker 1: the European Central Bank. And then there's the perennial speculation
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  Speaker 1: regarding the future of China central bank government. Big questions
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  Speaker 1: how many of them will keep their jobs, and if
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  Speaker 1: they depart, what will be their legacies and what kind
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  Speaker 1: of people will replace them. Well, fortunately we have just
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  Speaker 1: the right person to discuss this. Let's bring him in.
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  Speaker 1: Adam poson Is is probably better situated than just about
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  Speaker 1: anybody to talk about this topic. He's been in the
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  Speaker 1: room as a policymaker at the Bank of England. He's
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  Speaker 1: worked at the FED and co authored a book on
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  Speaker 1: inflation targeting with former FED chair Ben Bernanke. He even
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  Speaker 1: wrote a book about Japan's economy, and since early he's
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  Speaker 1: been president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington,
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  Speaker 1: where it's basically his full time job to keep abreast
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  Speaker 1: of world economic affairs. Adam thanks for joining us today
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  Speaker 1: on the road from London. No, thank you Scott, Thank
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  Speaker 1: you Daniel. Nice introduction, I hope to help Adam. Why
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  Speaker 1: should the average person in the US, the UK, Germany
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  Speaker 1: or Japan care about who's the head of their central bank.
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  Speaker 1: The fundamental reason is, even if not the most powerful
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  Speaker 1: economic person in the world, he or she who runs
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  Speaker 1: one of these major central banks has a lot to
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  Speaker 1: do with the well being of every household and every
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  Speaker 1: business in the economy. And if you're running the US
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  Speaker 1: Central Bank and to lesser degree, the European CenTra Bank,
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  Speaker 1: you have an effect on the well being and every
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  Speaker 1: household around the world, at least that's part of global markets.
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  Speaker 1: You the people who run these central banks become important
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  Speaker 1: in two senses. First, they have to help set the
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  Speaker 1: agenda and and move They are committees mostly that run
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  Speaker 1: these banks, but then move the committee to making decisions
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  Speaker 1: day to day on what's important, what the state of
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  Speaker 1: the economy is, how to calm things down, how to
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  Speaker 1: speed things up. And they have some tools that approximately
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  Speaker 1: let them do this, like interest rates or in crisis times,
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  Speaker 1: purchases of government securities. The second way in which they
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  Speaker 1: matter is if God forbid there is a crisis, as
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  Speaker 1: the US and the UK and Europe went through in
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  Speaker 1: two thousand eight two thousand nine. You want someone who
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  Speaker 1: is creative and flexible and strong enough to take action.
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  Speaker 1: Keying off of that the main suspense. Now we might
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  Speaker 1: not have a crisis. But here in Washington, we're pondering
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  Speaker 1: who's going to be head of the Federal Reserve once
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  Speaker 1: Janet Yellin's for your term is up in February. What's
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  Speaker 1: your take on that? Do you think she's going to
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  Speaker 1: be reappointed by President Trump or is he going to
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  Speaker 1: be uh? Is he going to pick someone else like
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  Speaker 1: his economic advisor Gary Cone, uh former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
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  Speaker 1: How do you see this shaking out and how's that
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  Speaker 1: going to affect the economy depending on what happens. Well,
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  Speaker 1: your Bloomberg colleagues had a piece a couple of weeks
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  Speaker 1: ago with sort of the six leading names that made
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  Speaker 1: sense to me, and so I put things in three categories.
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  Speaker 1: There's the probability, the possibility that Janet yelling gets reappointed,
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  Speaker 1: and actually, contrary to what some people think, I think
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  Speaker 1: that would be the most hawkish, meaning the most likely
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  Speaker 1: to raise rates, the most likely to worry about inflation
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  Speaker 1: in the near term. But I think she has a
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  Speaker 1: very small chance of being reappointed because she's not just
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  Speaker 1: formerly a Democrat, but she's also someone who probably doesn't
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  Speaker 1: want to deregulate financial markets as much as Mr Trump
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  Speaker 1: would like. And so I put like a temper center
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  Speaker 1: less chance on that. I put a sixty plus percent
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  Speaker 1: chance that the president appoints one of the Republicans who's
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  Speaker 1: been active either at the Federal Reserve or around the
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  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve for a long time, and advised previous presidents
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  Speaker 1: that list would include John Taylor, Kevin Walsh, Glenn Hubbard,
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  Speaker 1: and I put like a sixty percent chance one of
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  Speaker 1: those three would be picked. But that still leaves you
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  Speaker 1: within our thirty percent. And this is what I worry
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  Speaker 1: about in particular. On that list, there were two names
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  Speaker 1: of people who are not economists, not even policy types,
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  Speaker 1: to sort of general bankers or business people. And during
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  Speaker 1: the campaign President Trump talked a few times about putting
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  Speaker 1: a normal business person at the FED. Our experience in
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  Speaker 1: history of doing that is very poor. Last time we
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  Speaker 1: tried that with a man named g. William Miller in
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  Speaker 1: the late seventies under Carter that turned into a near
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  Speaker 1: disaster for the US in terms of high inflation and
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  Speaker 1: variable currency value. So I hope the president doesn't do that,
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  Speaker 1: but I can't rule it out. So two months later,
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  Speaker 1: the Bank of Japan governor's term expired. Now, since the
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  Speaker 1: Bank's gained independence in the late ninety nineties, no governor
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  Speaker 1: has been reappointed. It's also true that Japan's economy, while
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  Speaker 1: not awesome, he is looking relatively good right now. What
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  Speaker 1: do you think is going to happen there? Well, I think,
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  Speaker 1: and you're absolutely right, Um, Of all the central banks
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  Speaker 1: you mentioned, I think at the start, I think Governor
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  Speaker 1: Corona and the Bank of Japan are the one most
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  Speaker 1: likely to have a reappointment. UM. Governor Crow is a
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  Speaker 1: little bit on the older side, but he's still very active.
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  Speaker 1: And as you rightly point out, if you look at
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  Speaker 1: the data, UM, including things like per capita income growth,
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  Speaker 1: which is basically the most the best single measure we
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  Speaker 1: have of well being for macro economy, Japan has been
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  Speaker 1: doing okay. It was obviously thrown off base by the
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  Speaker 1: crisis in the North Atlantic, but it wasn't its own
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  Speaker 1: fault and it was pretty resilient. There is a problem
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  Speaker 1: in Japan, and it's something of a puzzle that inflation
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  Speaker 1: hasn't gone up more than it has so far. But
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  Speaker 1: Governor Krota has done pretty much everything that either the
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  Speaker 1: outside economists or Prime Minister Abbe could have expected him
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  Speaker 1: to do on inflation, and I think he'd continue to
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  Speaker 1: do it. All right, that's two down. Let's go to
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  Speaker 1: where you are right now, London. Bank of England. We
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  Speaker 1: have Mark Karney. I don't think he's even British. You
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  Speaker 1: didn't overlap with him directly in your service, but he
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  Speaker 1: has made his position clear I believe on Brexit, and
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  Speaker 1: he's going to step down in what do you make
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  Speaker 1: of his tenure and what do you think is going
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  Speaker 1: to happen once he leaves? What kind of person will
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  Speaker 1: replace him? Governor Karney is a very almost larger than
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  Speaker 1: life figure in the UK right now, but also in
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  Speaker 1: central banking circles UM. He has also served as head
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  Speaker 1: of the FSB, the Financial Stability Board, which is the
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  Speaker 1: global coordinating body on financial regulation UM and he previously
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  Speaker 1: was Governor of the Bank of Canada. And they are
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  Speaker 1: very very few people in history you've been governor to
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  Speaker 1: central banks. But as you point out Scott. This is
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  Speaker 1: all taking place in the context of the British economy
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  Speaker 1: exiting the European Union, which is a pretty disruptive and
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  Speaker 1: most of us believe, including Governor Garney in a speech
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  Speaker 1: a week ago, pretty negative development for the UK economy.
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  Speaker 1: So and there are people who get angry when he
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  Speaker 1: points that out. So he's gonna have a bit of
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  Speaker 1: a rocky tenure for the remaining two years of his term.
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  Speaker 1: I think despite that, if he announced that he wanted
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  Speaker 1: to be extended, I bet people would extend him here,
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  Speaker 1: but I think it is quite unlikely he will have
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  Speaker 1: served a long period. But then it's very open season. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: The governor of the Bank, Amngast, seemed to alternate often
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  Speaker 1: between somebody promoting somebody inside who's been senior versus somebody
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  Speaker 1: who has direct relevant experience but external. It's possible they
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  Speaker 1: might go either way following Karney. They could promote one
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  Speaker 1: of the current deputy governors because Carney didn't come up
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  Speaker 1: through the bank, or they could promote someone from the
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  Speaker 1: financial sector because Garney did come from a central bank.
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  Speaker 1: I think there's uncertainty there. What do you think the
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  Speaker 1: effects will be on the UK economy and the approach
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  Speaker 1: to Brexit. You know what would be your best guess
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  Speaker 1: on that. My best guess is that the Brexit is
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  Speaker 1: creating a lot of uncertainty, not just sort of about
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  Speaker 1: what happens in these famous negotiations between the UK and
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  Speaker 1: the European Union, but fundamentally going forward. That it means
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  Speaker 1: the UK's place in the world economically and how much
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  Speaker 1: investment it will get and who it will trade with
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  Speaker 1: are fundamentally more uncertain for a long time. And so
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  Speaker 1: in the next couple of years, and whoever succeeds Governor
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  Speaker 1: Karney after that, they're gonna have to cope with the
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  Speaker 1: UK economy. It's more like the nineteen seventies and the
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  Speaker 1: nineteen nineties, meaning a lot more fluctuation in exchange rate,
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  Speaker 1: which we're already seeing, a lot more up and down
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  Speaker 1: in the inflation rate, which again we're already seeing probably
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  Speaker 1: a slower average growth rate going forward, which Governor Carney
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  Speaker 1: spoke about recently at the I m F and which
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  Speaker 1: I agree. It's gonna be a time of tough choices
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  Speaker 1: and the fear is just like when Carter appointed g
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  Speaker 1: William Miller or Nixon appointed Art Burns in the seventies
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  Speaker 1: that the government will try to pick somebody who is
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  Speaker 1: more to their taste and less about standing up to
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  Speaker 1: the tough things. We'll see what happens, Prime Minister Jeremy Colbyn.
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  Speaker 1: One seen inconceivable, now seen entirely possible. Is that the
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  Speaker 1: fact to X in this discussion. Yeah, thank you for
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  Speaker 1: making me spell it out, Daniel Um. I mean, I
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  Speaker 1: don't have terribly much partisan preference for the current government
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  Speaker 1: of Visa May versus the potential government of Jeremy Corbyn
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  Speaker 1: or their associated versions of their parties. But I do think,
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  Speaker 1: given Um leader of the Opposition, Corbyn's repeated statements of
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  Speaker 1: his beliefs about the economy, that they could potentially end
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  Speaker 1: up with someone rather strange if he's picking who's the
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  Speaker 1: next governor of the Bank of England. There are good
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  Speaker 1: economists who support the Labor Government and the Labor Party
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  Speaker 1: in the past, and and good policymakers. I'm not saying
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  Speaker 1: it's impossible, but as was seen in some of his
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  Speaker 1: remarks on the economy in general having to do with
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  Speaker 1: what he calls People's qui, which sometimes sort of cites
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  Speaker 1: me or renationalizing certain industries these are things. They're not
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  Speaker 1: necessarily bad ideas, but they're indicative of a worldview that's
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  Speaker 1: probably very interventionist and probably very big change from the
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  Speaker 1: current way the Bank of England operates. Next up on
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  Speaker 1: the ticket, European Central Bank Mario Drags term ends twenty
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  Speaker 1: nine contain he, unlike the others, is term limited and
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  Speaker 1: this is also subject to the vagaries of EU politics,
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  Speaker 1: the bargaining. What do you think is going to happen there?
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  Speaker 1: I think that's exactly right now, you know, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: we people have to recognize not only is it certain
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  Speaker 1: that Drag does not continue as President of the European
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  Speaker 1: Central Bank, but that the chances of a big change
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  Speaker 1: are are quite large. This is partly because in some
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  Speaker 1: sense Drag has arguably had the most difficult job of
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  Speaker 1: any of the central bank governors, because what you referred
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  Speaker 1: to as the vagaries of the European Union. You have
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  Speaker 1: a very very large committee twenty seven excuse me, not
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  Speaker 1: twenty seven members but UM seventeen euro members plus six
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  Speaker 1: members of the board UM running the e c B,
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  Speaker 1: and he has to marshal that. And there are some
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  Speaker 1: very very deep ideological divides and national divides in Europe.
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  Speaker 1: Over how the e c B should respond to the
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  Speaker 1: persistent unemployment in Southern Europe, how they should respond if
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: there's another crisis in Portugal and Greece. How seriously should
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: they take the target of two percent inflation as a
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  Speaker 1: cap rather than as a long term average. So in
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  Speaker 1: a sense, this is the most as without the respect
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  Speaker 1: of my friends at the bank hang and this is
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  Speaker 1: the most consequential appointment because it could have the biggest
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  Speaker 1: shift the German government. The German people have in a
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  Speaker 1: sense the most voting power because they're the biggest economy
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  Speaker 1: and the most influential in Europe, and they have to
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  Speaker 1: date uh not insisted that the German be the head
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  Speaker 1: of the e c B, even though the e c B,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: or perhaps because the ECB is in Frankfurt, and because
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: it's modeled on their former central bank or their current
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: center bank, but they no longer running things central bank
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the Bundesbank. Anyway, long story short, the real question is
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  Speaker 1: do they appoint the current head of the Bundesbank yans
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  Speaker 1: Viedman to succeed dragging and that would be to make
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  Speaker 1: an American analogy, that would be taking someone more extreme
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: on rules and anti inflation and supposedly hawkish like John Taylor,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: but more extreme than that to replace Jennet Yellen. And
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  Speaker 1: that's a very big swing with potentially very big consequences,
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  Speaker 1: And does the German election we've just had playing to
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: this at all. In my view, it makes it slightly
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: more likely that you get um. I think Chancellor Merkel
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  Speaker 1: is a consummate politician, as we've seen, despite the election results,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: she's very much in the sense of a lot of
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: other top politicians that she everything is a bargain. I mean,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: there are certain moral lines she won't cross, like with
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Russia immigrants, but beyond that, everything is a bargain. You
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: can trade off stuff. So she's not going to come
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  Speaker 1: out early and say I insisted the Videman or a
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: German be the b bcb president. What she's gonna do
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: is wait until late in the game and when Druggist
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: term is nearly up and see what she can get
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  Speaker 1: for it. And if somebody makes her an offer, well
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: we want the bank the France president instead, and will say, well,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: what are you gonna give me? And we'll see. But
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: the ultimately the election I think makes it more likely
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  Speaker 1: that she pushes a bit at the end for Viteman,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: because then she's giving something to the so called liberals,
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  Speaker 1: the Free Democratic Party and the right wing of her
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: party in Germany. She's pushing a German forward who will
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: be tougher in theory on the Greeks and the Portuguese
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and the Spanish and especially the Italians. And so I
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: think she mildly favors that, but it's more that she
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: will earn points with her own domestic constituencies without having
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: giving anything up by doing that. One last question, Adam,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: going back to where we started, how much power do
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: these central bankers really have or are they hostage to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: global economic forces that are really bigger than them? I think,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: though it's a bit dicey Scott, I kind of make
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: an analogy to a general. You know, a general. If
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: you're in charge of a big army, big military, and
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: it's well equipped and your enemy isn't anywhere near as big,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: you will usually win. And some generals will win more
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: or less quickly, with more or less losses. And there's
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: been this sense, particularly in the late nineties early two thousands,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: with people like Greenspan at the FED or Burvin King
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: at the Bank of England that central markers could just
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: make things happen, but it's really they were up against
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: much smaller armies. I don't mean literally in size, but
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the challenges that were up against in part through luck,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: we're just not as great. So in the end, you
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: can't fight the FED. If the Fed wants something to
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: happen over time, they generally will be able to make
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: it happen. But there's a lot more uncertainty about which
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: tools work, how dependable they are, how much you have
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: to do then there used to be. And also like
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: with generals after the Vietnam, more with central bankers after
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the global financial crisis, there's a lot less trust in them. Uh,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: they're experts, their technocrats. They mostly want to do the
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: right thing for the right reasons. But understandably the public
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: is not as willing to just turn over the fate
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: of their in this case, economy to them without check.
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  Speaker 1: And that's part of why, particularly the Bank of Japan
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: or the Bank of England is going to have an
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: easier ride because their publics, for whatever reason, seem to
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: have more faith despite their respective crises in the central banks,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: whereas in the US environment the Federal Reservice very much
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: under suspicion in Congress in some parts of the country politically,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: and I'm not saying that's justified. I'm saying it's understandable
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  Speaker 1: and that's the reality. So like generals after Vietnam, central
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: bankers after the crisis are going to have to try
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: to bring people on board and not be too aggressive
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: because they may lose the support they need. Adam, thank
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. That's been a
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: really fascinating conversation. And in the meantime, Will White for
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: the ken Burns documentary on the Central Bank is with
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: an audience one tenth of the ken Burns audience sounds great.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Benchmark will be back next week and until then, you
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: can find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot Com,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: our Bloomberg app, as well as on Apple Podcasts, pocket Casts,
• 18:21
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• 18:27
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• 18:29
  Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at at Scott Landman
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Dan you are at Moss Underscore Echo, and Adam our
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: guest is at at Adam Posen. Benchmark is produced by
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  Speaker 1: Sarah Patterson, thanks for listening, See you next time.