Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Bitcoin's pumping, markets are crashing, BlackRocks report explains what comes next | EP 1496

Transcript

Bitcoin's pumping, markets are crashing, BlackRocks report explains what comes next | EP 1496 · Simply Bitcoin

0:01
Literally hours ago we got news that the Strait of Hormuz is
0:05
once again closed and the stock market responded to this news by
0:10
crashing. But Bitcoin is still holding up
0:13
at 80 K, its highest price since January.
0:17
What exactly is happening? But before I get into all the
0:22
details surrounding today's breaking news, I want to once
0:25
again remind you of this BlackRock report that we covered
0:28
a long time ago 'cause I think it's gonna help explain what
0:32
might come next, or rather what we're living through literally
0:35
at this moment. So here we go.
0:37
Let me, let me pull this up for you guys again.
0:40
We've covered this in the past, so if you've been on the show,
0:44
forgive me for repeating a little bit here, but it does put
0:48
a good context of what we're seeing.
0:50
And before actually I get into it, let's let's remind everyone
0:55
Bitcoin has been the best performing thing in the market
0:59
since this war started. And that was one of the most
1:03
interesting signals of this whole conflict.
1:06
A lot of it, including me, expected Bitcoin to completely
1:11
get cooked when the initial assault happened in February,
1:16
right? Was it February?
1:18
Yeah, I forget when this whole thing started about 2-3 months
1:21
ago. So yeah, about February, right.
1:23
I was expecting on that Monday we would show up to work and
1:27
Bitcoin would cater it. It would just cater crater.
1:31
It would just completely nuke. That didn't happen.
1:34
And I've been telling you guys for the last couple of weeks,
1:37
that is the most interesting thing happening right now is
1:40
that Bitcoin is slowly grinding higher.
1:43
And then I was reminded of this article here, or rather a
1:47
BlackRock report. It is titled Bitcoin a Unique
1:50
Diversifier and look at the date, September 16th, 2025.
1:54
So we covered this a long time ago, but there is one chart in
1:58
here that I think really explains what we're seeing
2:02
happening right now. And it is on page 6 of this
2:05
report. And it is of course titled What
2:08
makes Bitcoin relevant? And it's showing the 10 day and
2:12
60 day returns of the biggest conflicts we've seen since what,
2:16
2020. And Bitcoin has outperformed
2:20
everything, every single thing basically on a 10 day to a 60
2:26
day time frame. And I, I'm not going to cover
2:30
everything here because I've covered this in the past, but
2:33
just keeping that in context of what we're seeing happen today
2:37
is one of the obviously more unique aspects of Bitcoin.
2:40
Essentially Bitcoin usually either front runs the calamities
2:46
that we see on the geopolitical level.
2:48
And then once things kind of get smoothed out, we actually have a
2:52
little better information, a bit better idea of what's happening.
2:56
It starts to front run the pump afterwards and I don't know what
3:01
we're what I really don't know what we're seeing happen right
3:03
now, considering that like bitcoins at ADK again, I know
3:07
you guys know I've been bullish. I'm like, yo, is Bitcoin
3:09
breaking out right now? I don't know.
3:13
I, I, I can't tell you with a 100% guarantee of what's going
3:18
on. But anyways, let me get to
3:19
today's news. So if you've been following
3:22
along, actually I didn't even pull it up, but let me let me go
3:26
back a little bit. If you've been following Trump
3:30
on true social on Friday, he sent a letter to Congress and he
3:36
basically said that the war effort or the mission, whatever
3:41
the Iran conflict was terminated on Friday.
3:44
So he sent that to Congress on Friday, that basically all of
3:49
our efforts are terminated in the Middle East.
3:52
Yes, we will still have a blockade, but it seemed like the
3:55
assaults were going to be done. That's what we heard Friday.
4:00
And then as we heard, I think it was this morning as yeah, I
4:06
think it was this morning or maybe late last night.
4:08
And here's NBC News covering it. There's a little bit of
4:12
confusion on what is actually happening over there.
4:15
So this headline is US denies Iranian claim that it hit
4:19
American warship as Trump launches mission to reopen
4:22
Strait of Hormuz the US said two American flag commercial vessels
4:26
transited the critical waterway Monday as part of the new
4:29
project Freedom. Now, the kind of details of this
4:33
is in the first paragraph. So the US military on Monday
4:37
rejected Iranian claims to obstruct an American warship
4:40
trying to who enter the Strait of Hormuz and said that the
4:43
first commercial ships has transited the critical waterway
4:46
as part of the course President Trump's new mission to guide
4:50
stranded vessels. So on Twitter we were hearing
4:54
that two ships tried to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
4:58
Apparently at least the, as the Iranian officials or the Iranian
5:02
army was saying, the Iranian, you know, military guard was
5:05
saying we bombed 2 ships. So that was the initial
5:11
confusion. Then we come out and say, are we
5:14
as the US? So, you know, the Trump and our
5:16
mileage come out. It's like, no, that's not what
5:18
happened. These ships went through and
5:21
that was all the confusion this morning.
5:23
And in response to all of this, we also just saw literally right
5:27
before I went live on the show. And I I did have to verify this
5:30
a couple of times, but from everyone posting on Twitter, I
5:35
didn't see an official headline coming out of the legacy media
5:39
yet. But it looks like Iran has shut
5:41
down the Strait of Hormuz yet. A bunch of people are tweeting
5:45
it now. Earlier this morning, it didn't
5:46
seem that much, but I saw a couple of accounts that I do
5:50
trust saying looks like the Strait of Hormuz is now closed.
5:53
As we speak, it is apparently closed.
5:56
I'm sure this is going to evolve even more.
5:59
But at the same time, once this news hit Twitter, we saw the
6:03
stock market currently when I before I went live, they were
6:08
down, you know, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, they're all down
6:12
about 1%, so only 100 bips. But at the same time about, you
6:20
know, quarter to half a trillion dollars wiped out of the stock
6:25
market on this news. But at the same time, Bitcoin
6:32
has been kissing 80K all morning.
6:34
It hit it last night. It hit it this morning.
6:38
And right before I went live actually, I'll, I'll pull up the
6:41
live price. I guess we are still above 80 K.
6:47
Well, we're still at 80 K. Here you go.
6:50
We're at 80K as we speak. It is still hovering around 80K.
6:56
So stock market is dumping. Bitcoin is still going up at 80
7:01
K. It really makes me and every one
7:04
of my friends be like, yo is, are we breaking out?
7:09
Are we back? And I literally tweeted this
7:11
morning, I'm like everyone is everyone's feeling bullish, but
7:14
we're too afraid to say that we're actually bullish right
7:17
now. And I did do a self test here on
7:22
where am I on the Wall Street psychology CHEAT SHEET and I, I
7:26
can't make up my mind whether I'm in a disbelief or in hope
7:30
range. Am I like this is a suckers
7:33
rally. I, I am hopeful, but I'm also
7:36
part of me thinking like we might dump a little more.
7:39
It might go down a little bit. But again, in the face of what
7:43
we're seeing happen, it looks like everything that was really
7:48
calm waters the last couple of weeks is now we're right back
7:52
into the thick of it. It looks like, you know,
7:56
nothings changed in the Middle East, even though we had like a
7:59
three-week kind of ceasefire kind of tensions were de
8:03
escalated. But again, you know, I'll show
8:07
you here's updated. I guess it was 200 billion.
8:11
I, I got a couple different metrics.
8:13
Some people said 250 billion, two 100 billion.
8:16
I saw someone post like 520 billion, but quarter of a
8:20
million, a quarter of a trillion dollars wiped out of the stock
8:24
market this morning. Now, at the same time, another
8:28
interesting thing happened in the bond markets this morning,
8:32
which again a lot of confusion about exactly what happened in
8:37
the bond markets. But either there's a glitch in
8:42
the bond market this morning or we are seeing a massive dump of
8:48
U.S. Treasury bills at in a very
8:50
short time. So here's a tweet covering it.
8:53
This is absolutely insane. Either this is a glitch or
8:56
someone is massively dumping U.S.
8:58
Treasury bills. And if that's true, it's a major
9:02
player and we're talking country level.
9:06
Look at these charts. It's it's absolutely insane on
9:08
the two year, the five year, 20 year, 30 year, like you don't
9:13
see this happening, this this doesn't happen.
9:16
And I did see another person tweet about this and it was like
9:21
Grok verified. So you know, if you're an AI guy
9:24
was confirmed by AI. But we're we're seeing some
9:29
crazy stuff happen in the geopolitical macro landscape.
9:33
And I'm only bringing that up because in the context of what
9:36
Bitcoin is doing, it's going to the idea like is this the
9:42
Bitcoin decouple, Bitcoin breakout happening as we speak?
9:46
Here's last night's liquidation. About $108 million of levered
9:50
Bitcoin shorts were liquidated. I could update you this because
9:55
we saw this happen this morning. If you guys were watching the
9:58
price, it went to 80 K last night, late last night, and then
10:02
it kind of barted down to 79 K and then this morning it climbed
10:09
again and now we're at 80 K. So sorry.
10:15
Sorry. I distracted by the chat.
10:17
Hopefully it's a powerful drug. Yeah, dude, it totally is.
10:20
So, you know, all right, all right, I don't mean to TA here,
10:25
but this is, you know, I've been showing you my lines, I've been
10:29
showing you my lines. We have this trend line.
10:32
We did secure the 78 and I have this kind of inflection point
10:38
here circled where I was saying this before I saw it rise back
10:43
up to 80 K. I'm like, all right, I'm
10:44
expecting the next couple of days that we might test down
10:47
here. If we break below 75, I'm not
10:51
going to be feeling very good about it.
10:54
But if we continue to climb up to this 82 K range, which you
10:58
know was the November kind of low, things are getting, oh, I
11:02
didn't pull it up. Things are getting very
11:04
interesting, guys. There's a decoupling in the room
11:06
with us now. I don't know.
11:08
I don't know. That's what I'm saying.
11:10
That is what I'm saying right now.
11:13
That is the idea. I hope this isn't a rally to
11:17
sell a man. Go away.
11:18
Yeah, Yeah, I know, I know. Sorry, guys.
11:21
I, I forgot. You know, I'm.
11:22
I'm over here alone doing. Dude, I'm losing my mind alone
11:26
over here. I'm a band.
11:27
I feel like an abandoned child over here on the show.
11:30
But anyways, in context of what we're seeing in the geopolitical
11:36
macro landscape, reminding you of what that BlackRock report
11:41
said that was posted months ago, over six months ago at this
11:44
point, right? It does hold true.
11:49
Bitcoin, as we've seen in this last geopolitical conflict or
11:53
geopolitical event, Bitcoin is the best performing thing since
11:59
the start of the war, which was kind of a troll that I was
12:04
saying for a little bit. I was kind of joking about it
12:06
for a couple of weeks. Me and Sophie were joking about
12:08
it was like, wait, I thought war was bad for Bitcoin, but is this
12:12
war actually good for Bitcoin as we've seen?
12:15
Actually there was an interesting Reuters article over
12:19
the weekend which said something on the lines of about 10% of the
12:23
Iranian population is invested in Bitcoin and crypto.
12:28
So I'm guessing Bitcoin and some form of stable coin which equals
12:32
out to about 11,000,000 citizens that are now looking into
12:37
Bitcoin using big holding Bitcoin.
12:39
And we all know the big news that originally came out of the
12:42
Strait of Hormuz is that they were supposedly trying to get
12:45
payments in Bitcoin and like a stablecoin Chinese yuan here
12:50
didn't really hear too much about ships actually going
12:53
through and using Bitcoin in that scenario.
12:56
I the only time I'd really heard about it was like a scamming
12:59
event. There's some about got scammed
13:01
out of their Bitcoin and crypto. But as you're seeing, does this
13:08
not verify a lot of the things as Bitcoiners have been saying
13:11
for the longest time, that the world needs a politically
13:13
neutral, censorship resistant, permissionless money.
13:17
And now in the face of this conflict, mission, war,
13:21
whatever, whatever they're calling it today, operation,
13:25
we're seeing that Bitcoin in this context has been shifted or
13:30
the Overton window has been shifted to now, hey, if you are
13:34
a country and also did I, I didn't pull this up.
13:37
I don't actually didn't bring this up on the show.
13:38
But we also heard over the weekend that Scott Besset was
13:42
basically saying that they confiscated a bunch of stable
13:45
coins from Iran. So as you can see throughout
13:49
this whole conflict, one of the kind of more quieter stories
13:54
about the war in Iran or again Operation Mission I, who knows
13:59
what they're calling it today is that Bitcoin and stablecoins
14:03
have taken a very important role in this whole operation, whether
14:08
it's from the US side or the Iranian side.
14:14
And that's what is most interesting to me today, not
14:17
just the the fact that Bitcoins at ADK, but the fact that it
14:22
seems like we have definitely escalated the timeline here.
14:27
We have moved the timeline forward where Bitcoin is
14:30
obviously taking the world stage in a politically neutral way.
14:35
Obviously there is going to be a fight on whether they can stop
14:39
them or not, but also in a macro hedge against inflation, A macro
14:48
hedge against political uncertainty, A macro hedge
14:52
against your government trying to crack down on you.
14:55
All of these narratives are converging at one time and
15:02
Bitcoin is at ADK. That is the signal here today.
15:08
That is what I want you guys to remember throughout the rest of
15:12
this month. This year is it's no longer just
15:16
a theory. It's no longer just, you know,
15:19
Bitcoin and ONS on Twitter talking about that one day this
15:22
is going to happen that we are going to see a nation state race
15:26
towards using Bitcoin, acquiring Bitcoin, getting hash rate.
15:30
The Jason Lowry sophomore thesis is playing out right now.
15:34
Yes, it's the very beginning. And let me remind you of what we
15:38
saw last week, actually the last few weeks we saw multiple
15:46
politicians, people in positions of power mention Bitcoin as a
15:53
quote, national security asset. We saw Pete Hagg says and we saw
15:58
that four-star Admiral. I think it's I always butchers.
16:00
That's like Papparo, I believe it was.
16:03
And then we saw there was someone else who mentioned
16:06
Bitcoin as a national security asset.
16:08
So you're seeing this. This is all happening in real
16:12
time. This isn't me just making up,
16:14
you know, click bait headlines. This isn't me just spinning a
16:17
narrative here. This is actually happening.
16:22
Iran is using Bitcoin on a state level.
16:26
You know, the Iranian, what is the IRGC?
16:31
I forget what the R stands for right now, but they want
16:33
Bitcoin. The citizens want Bitcoin.
16:37
We're seeing our military and federal government
16:42
administration basically say, hey, Bitcoin is a big concern
16:47
happening right now. You're seeing that in the face
16:51
of a new escalation in the Middle East.
16:57
Bitcoin is pumping while everything else is down.
17:03
While we're seeing potentially a huge seller in bond markets,
17:07
Bitcoin is up. We're seeing oil go up, energy
17:12
is getting more expensive, but Bitcoin still up.
17:16
It's very interesting how resilient Bitcoin has been
17:19
through this war. And I remember the first time I
17:22
said that on this show, people are like, how could you say
17:25
Bitcoin's resilient? Right now it's under 100K, It's
17:28
only AT70K. I'm like, yeah, that's that's
17:33
the point here. I would have expected it to
17:36
drop, but we're getting the slow grind higher that all the
17:41
institutions have been talking about.
17:43
And let's not forget that we just saw Morgan Stanley at the
17:47
Bitcoin conference say they're recommending 4%.
17:50
We're seeing, you know, Charles Schwab about to launch Bitcoin
17:53
trading. JP Morgan has been talking
17:56
about, or rather working towards using Bitcoin as collateral.
18:01
Wall Street's embracing Bitcoin. We're seeing a geopolitical
18:05
nation state fight over using Bitcoin.
18:09
We're seeing people talk about Bitcoin as the best performing
18:14
hedge against inflation, hedge against political uncertainty
18:18
that there's ever been, and yet everyone is still waiting for 40
18:25
Ki wouldn't want to be a bear right now, is all I'm saying.
18:29
I wouldn't want to be a bear right now because they might be
18:33
wrong about it. Now again, I am a bit, I would
18:40
say maybe nervous. I'm I am also hedging my bet
18:43
right now. I, I am kind of in disbelief
18:45
right now, even though I'm hopeful.
18:48
I'm obviously bullish. I always tell you guys, I
18:51
confirm my own bias here constantly.
18:53
I do always view Bitcoin bullish, but part of me is also
18:58
like, it could be a suckers rally.
19:00
I don't want it to be a suckers rally.
19:03
As I said earlier, I think we're all getting bullish, but we're
19:06
too afraid to say that we're getting bullish because we know
19:08
the algorithm traders are going to freaking liquidate us and
19:12
we're going to drop even lower. I did see some bear post on
19:16
Twitter over the weekend essentially saying that we
19:19
probably still have another drop.
19:20
And then I've seen the other side.
19:22
I've seen people basically saying, look, bear market's
19:25
probably over now. I am.
19:28
I'm leaning towards the bear market being over.
19:32
We're already up about 3435% from the bottom in February.
19:37
That 60K bottom. You guys have been seeing my
19:42
charts, You guys have been seeing my tea leaf reading.
19:45
You see the not only what I've been saying, but I've been
19:48
bringing you guys other metrics, other people saying the same
19:51
thing. The on chain metrics, everyone
19:53
is basically looking at that 81. Now we we're in the 80 K range.
19:58
It was 80 to 81 K. If we break this 801K range, we
20:05
could be on for a slow grind higher and the whole bitcoins
20:12
going to bottom in October idea is over.
20:15
Actually, I'll put it out here. Full transparency here, I guess.
20:19
I guess here's my actual TA for the day.
20:23
If we don't see the May dump. Remember Eric Balkunis did a
20:27
tweet the other day giving you guys the data that we might have
20:30
to retire the sell in May and go away idea.
20:34
But I'll, I'll, I'll double down on that.
20:38
If we don't dump in May, I think we can all confirm our bias here
20:46
and confirm that we are probably out of the woods, that we are
20:51
out of a bear market. I'm, I'm going to put it out
20:53
there, you know, if you, if that, if you guys want some
20:56
price predictions here. If we don't see an aggressive
21:00
dump in May, I think we're, I think we're out of it.
21:03
I, I think the bear market's over again.
21:07
I could be wrong. We couldn't have another leg
21:09
down, you know, until October or whatever.
21:12
Go down to the 60 K range, but again, the 200 week moving
21:18
average is now moving to 60 K. So I think 40K is off the table.
21:24
You know, I wish Nico was here today so I can make fun of him.
21:28
Actually, no, if I made fun of him then we would totally drop,
21:31
totally drop. All your models are broken.
21:34
May the fourth be with you 100%. I was going to wait until June,
21:39
but I'm going to wish Bitcoin 290 Ki wishes to really come
21:43
true. Yeah, 200K by November.
21:45
Y'all tripping? I don't know about that.
21:47
Tone Baze was bullish this morning and gave a 50% chance at
21:50
the bear markets. Over, over.
21:52
OK, I didn't catch that. I didn't catch that, but now I'm
21:56
not feeling so good on that protection.
21:59
No, no, I'm joking. I love Tone Baze.
22:00
I love Tone Baze. He's a good guy.
22:03
But yeah, look, 5050, that's a coin toss, bro, that I'm coin
22:11
tossing the same thing. Like, I don't know, we're at
22:15
80K. Let me let me let me double
22:16
check something here. We're still at 80 K, OK, I, I
22:24
didn't, I didn't jinx the price action here.
22:29
But hey, I don't know if you guys are following along on the
22:32
geopolitical stuff, but as we've been covering for the last 2-3
22:38
months, the geopolitical uncertainty has been the biggest
22:44
damper, biggest dampening effect on Bitcoin and you know, since
22:51
the beginning of this year basically.
22:54
But now again, reminding you of an old report and actually
22:58
shouts out to Luke, 'cause he reminded me of that report and
23:00
he's like, oh, dude, remember we covered this.
23:04
It's literally explaining what's going on.
23:08
So look, as much as you may not like BlackRock, they're getting,
23:13
they're getting the the signal out there for people and it
23:16
might not catch on right away, but you know, you might want to
23:21
get some Bitcoin just in case it does catch on.
23:24
Finally, a bullish opti. Bro, I've been bullish.
23:29
I've been naively bullish this whole time.
23:32
Let's see. Hey Opti, another drop to 60 K
23:34
would go a long way to helping all the shrimps like me.
23:38
Hey, look, I agree. I'm just saying if you are
23:42
betting on the price going lower or rather if you are waiting to
23:48
deploy your capital on the price going lower, it might not work
23:57
out. That's why we always say DCA,
24:00
timing the market beats timing the market.
24:03
I would not be sitting there, you know, with a big fat pile of
24:08
cash right now being like, I'm only going to deploy it all once
24:12
it gets down to 6040 K, I would just do some form of DCA here,
24:18
lump sum, You know, maybe break up the lump sum so that you get
24:23
some AT80K so you can head your bet whether it continues to go
24:26
up, but you still have some capital on the sidelines so you
24:29
can head your bet whether it goes down.
24:32
That's the smartest move. That's why DCA always wins.
24:35
Well, in the long term, if you are afraid of the volatility,
24:38
DCA is one of the best strategies.
24:40
I think if you look at the numbers, if you look at the
24:42
data, I think lump sum basically outperforms DCAI know you guys
24:47
don't like to hear that, but I'm pretty sure lump sum
24:50
outperformed DCA. But we are in a precarious time
24:57
right now. I'm, I'm, I'm not, I'm not going
24:59
to lie to you, full transparency right now I'm, I'm kind of on
25:03
the fence. I'm like, man, I am feeling
25:05
bullish. We're at 80K if we go any
25:08
higher, if we go into 8182 K range, maybe, maybe we're out of
25:14
the woods, but I'm also in this disbelief phase right now where
25:19
I'm like, this is a suckers rally.
25:20
We're going to get cooked by the end of May.
25:22
It's obviously the very beginning of May.
25:24
I think some of the numbers that I, that I've seen, I, I haven't
25:27
really go too deep in this, but I had a conversation with a
25:31
friend and he was basically saying that I've been tracking
25:35
the price every month and it seems like the 1st 15 days and,
25:39
and he's got a connection with, I think it was like, you know,
25:43
something to do with what normies by around the 15th, I
25:45
think it was like Social Security or Medicaid or I, I, I
25:48
forget what the details were. But the short of it is the
25:51
mechanics is the 1st 15 days of every month.
25:53
And then this year the price goes up and then the second
25:59
phase of the month, the price goes down.
26:01
And maybe you could also connect that with sailors kind of buying
26:05
strategy, etcetera. But look, very interesting day.
26:11
The day just started, so maybe we're going to see some more
26:15
crazy stuff by the end of the day.
26:16
Maybe tomorrow we see some more crazy stuff.
26:18
Who knows what can happen by the time the markets close at 5:00
26:23
tonight and then what happens later on at night, We who knows,
26:28
But we're watching some interesting stuff happen right
26:30
now. And Bitcoin's at 80 K.
26:32
It's almost like Bitcoin is politically neutral money.
26:38
Wait, politically neutral money? Censorship resistant money.
26:46
And the world wants them. It's all happening now, guys.
26:52
It is all happening now. How much is enough?
26:55
Dude? As much as you can get your
26:56
hands on it is never enough. OK, get as much as you can, man.
27:02
I've been running and you can ignore everything they say.
27:05
Oh, I know, I know, I know. I agree.
27:07
I agree. I want.
27:09
Dude, if you're not, if you're not tracking the price every
27:11
minute, you know what you're talking about anyways.
27:17
Anyways, Anyways, yeah, do you, What do I say?
27:19
Politically neutral, Geopolitically neutral.
27:21
It's the same. That's the same thing.
27:23
Whatever. Anyways, for today's show, there
27:28
was I think it was consensus week this weekend in in Miami.
27:34
It's also F1 weekend. I don't know if you guys care
27:36
about that, but there's an interesting clip from Arthur
27:39
Hayes. I'm pretty sure it was at
27:40
consensus and he's kind of explaining exactly what's going
27:45
on here. But obviously he's given a very
27:47
bullish price prediction. And then if you were, look, I
27:51
know I'm so tired of this as well, guys, so forgive me, but
27:57
we did get a pretty big update on the Clarity Act on Friday.
28:02
So we got some new Clarity news. It seems like things have
28:06
changed a little bit here. So that's for the news.
28:09
And then I really got to give a huge shout out to Katie the
28:12
Russian for today's culture. She covered what is happening in
28:16
Europe and it's not good. OK, so that's today's show.
28:22
I got a bullish clip from Arthur Hayes.
28:23
We got a pretty bullish update on the clarity act and for our
28:27
European friends and brothers, it looks like y'all are going to
28:35
get even more cooked. Another reason why you need
28:38
Bitcoin and and you know, in the case of what Katie the Russian
28:41
does with Plan B, you might need a second passport.
28:44
Guys, things are getting things are getting hairy out here.
28:47
But anyways, I'll be right back, quick commercial break and we'll
28:50
cover the rest of the show. Today's episode is brought to
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31:04
All right guys, we are back. It sounds weird when I'm not
31:09
hyped up, sounds weird when I'm like geeked on coffee yelling at
31:12
you guys. Anyways the current Bitcoin
31:14
price is 80,000 dollars 450 wait $80,450.
31:22
The discount from all time high is 36.2.
31:27
Market cap 1.61 trillion. Guys we're climbing towards 2
31:32
Climbing back. Are we out?
31:34
Are we out of the gulags? Are we seeing that slow grind
31:38
higher? I don't know, man, really.
31:41
I want to believe, OK, I want to believe.
31:43
Anyways, the block height is 947,900.
31:47
I repeat 947900. OK, so as I was up to you're the
31:54
most bullish. I don't know, dude.
31:55
Sovereign Hoddle's saying super cycle.
31:57
I didn't say that. I didn't say that, OK, I'm not
31:59
that bullish yet. I am feeling bullish like, you
32:06
know, Full disclosure, I am tentatively bullish.
32:10
I am, I am cautiously bullish right now.
32:13
This 80K inflection point is very interesting to me.
32:18
I think that I think this week is going to be very interesting
32:21
to see whether we, you know, get another kind of if the bears are
32:25
able to push us down again, where we can hold up.
32:29
If the bears are already losing control and have lost control,
32:34
maybe, maybe the fun, maybe the fun is back.
32:40
No, I didn't, dude. Hey, don't put words in my
32:43
mouth, man. Don't put words in my mouth
32:46
here. Anyways, if you want, if you
32:48
want to hear some bullish stuff, then let me just play you this
32:51
Arthur Hayes clip that I'm pretty sure was at consensus
32:54
Miami this weekend. If you want to hear some
32:57
bullish, here's the here's the actual bullish take.
33:03
Crazy how do we get to Bitcoin at a million or million plus and
33:06
whatever a dog shit coinage in air portfolio is up 100 X even
33:09
though it's a piece of shit and has no revenue and no clients.
33:12
I know that's what you guys want When you'd say alt season, how
33:14
do we get there? And it starts with understanding
33:16
how the Fed votes, which board does what and how we get to the
33:20
eventual outcome that essentially yields to yield
33:22
curve control. Now we are into quantitative
33:24
easing because Bessen has all this debt he needs to issue
33:27
right now. He's not issuing that long end.
33:29
He's afraid just like bad girl yelling she was afraid of the
33:31
long end. Buffalo Bill Bess is afraid of
33:33
the long end. It's all the short end, which is
33:34
why the Genius Act and all the stable court regulation is so
33:37
pertinent because they need a price inelastic buyer of these
33:40
Treasury bonds or bills at any price.
33:43
But if they have control, the FOMC, who agrees that yield
33:47
curve control is necessary to accomplish the political
33:50
industrial goals of the American Trump administration, then now
33:53
at Besson can issue trillions of dollars of debt and the Fed is
33:56
going to buy a majority of these bonds.
33:58
And so we get 7 1/2 trillion dollars effectively at Fed
34:01
credit creation. That's how much their balance
34:03
grows between now and 2028. The second piece is this bank
34:06
credit creation. So we have three years
34:08
multiplied by three finger in the air math and in total we get
34:11
to about $15.2 trillion of credit creation.
34:14
What if we do it when the Fed and the Treasury are working
34:17
together to print money and send in their terms the air American
34:20
economy into a Valhalla, we get Bitcoin $1 million plus.
34:24
And so This is why I'm very confident that the four year
34:27
cycle is not really applicable to this particular cycle.
34:30
We are in a reindustrialization of a military belligerent, and
34:33
this is what's going to happen if they are able to gain control
34:36
of all the levers of monetary policy.
34:39
And believe me, they are very motivated.
34:42
God, I, you know, look, I really hope he's true.
34:48
Well, well, hold on. I, I guess maybe I need to
34:51
clarify that I want to see Bitcoin RIP, but at the same
34:58
time, I know that that is going to be at the expense of everyone
35:03
that is holding not Bitcoin for their purchasing power.
35:08
So it, it's, it is kind of a bittersweet moment.
35:11
I know Nico's made fun of me in the past.
35:13
It's like Opti hates the middle class because he keeps saying
35:18
they're going to destroy their purchasing power.
35:19
I'm like, I've never actually said that.
35:22
All I'm saying is we know what the game is and they have to
35:25
continue to print now in context of what we saw last week, where
35:32
it looks like Kevin Wash is going to be confirmed to be the
35:35
new head of the Fed. And we know that he's basically
35:40
got, you know, elected or, you know, picked to follow the Trump
35:47
playbook or the Mar a Lago Accords, as we've been calling
35:51
and hearing about for a long time, which is a low interest
35:54
rates and of course, turning the money printer back on.
35:59
So as Arthur Hayes was saying, if they're able to get that
36:03
confirmation, if it's able to get passed through the Senate
36:08
and the Trump administration is able to, of course, handle the
36:12
Treasury and the Fed together. Now, of course, I don't know if
36:15
I if I covered this on Friday because I, because I heard about
36:18
it, wait Thursday or I think it was anyways, I don't know if I
36:22
covered this, but apparently Jerome Powell was going to stay
36:25
on the Board of Governors for the Fed.
36:27
So I've heard a couple of different theories there where
36:31
it seems like Jerome Powell, you know, wants to quote, maintain
36:36
the independence of the Fed. And then also, I heard one that
36:40
seemed a little more kind of probably the truth, which was
36:47
that Jerome Powell was kind of waiting until all of these court
36:50
cases are completely, you know, basically he's waiting till he's
36:56
immune from whatever kind of political attacks that he might
37:02
be facing right now. And that's why he's staying on
37:04
the Board of Governors. So it might not be as easy as
37:09
just getting Kevin Walsh in there.
37:11
And then Trump is able to basically align the Treasury and
37:14
the Fed together. But it does look like they are
37:18
maneuvering to actually control all of these levers.
37:21
And as we've been covering, as every Bitcoin has been saying
37:24
forever, they can't stop this trend.
37:27
They got to keep printing money. And what we're almost at $40
37:31
trillion just based on what normally is happening, if that
37:37
does happen within the next three, what, four years, 7
37:41
trillion added to the market or the national debt or $7 trillion
37:46
created, that's a lot of dollars sloshing around in the system
37:54
with a potential to find some homes in Bitcoin.
38:00
Hey, maybe we all are just not bullish enough.
38:05
Do you think I'm bullish? Maybe I'm not bullish enough,
38:11
especially in the context of everything.
38:13
We're seeing Wall Street embracing Bitcoin.
38:17
We're seeing Bitcoin as a geopolitically neutral money,
38:22
the nation state FOMO. Who knows what this quote latest
38:27
special huge big announcement on the strategic Bitcoin reserve
38:30
will be. I think if they announced that
38:32
they're, they bought Bitcoin, all gloves are off, it might go
38:40
higher than all of our expectations.
38:42
All our models are broken. Jerome bowel movement, you know,
38:50
actually here, let me read this. Jerome bowel movement is nothing
38:54
more than part of the problem. You know, I am very much leaning
38:59
towards that same kind of sentiment.
39:03
I did see some very interesting takes from some Bitcoiners
39:06
saying that Jerome Powell was a patriot, that he actually did a
39:09
very good job. And I didn't really dive too
39:12
much into it, but just that statement.
39:18
Excuse me, guys, forgive me. Just that statement alone, it
39:25
kind of like piqued my interest. I'm like, huh, that, that is a
39:28
pretty interesting reframing of what of what we saw.
39:31
I think. I think the biggest one that I
39:33
saw was British Huddle saying it and I was like, that's
39:36
interesting. Very interesting take here.
39:40
Let me see interesting. I, it's forgive me.
39:50
I, I, I got it from Twitter. It seemed like someone was
39:54
eating or something on the back end.
39:56
And also forgive me, I usually edit those and I, I really, I
39:59
thought it was louder than it was.
40:00
So I didn't, I didn't double check.
40:03
I was, I know you guys yell at me every day because I'm late,
40:09
but I was working literally right up until I went Live
40:14
Today. So I, I, I missed a few things.
40:16
Monday mornings been kind of hectic.
40:20
But man, I don't know, guys, are we not bullish enough?
40:28
Are we not bullish enough? Do we have such bad PTSD from
40:32
the last two cycles that we have all become bears?
40:38
Say it ain't so. We're all bearish.
40:45
We've we've put her hand on the stove for too long and we forgot
40:52
what it meant for Bitcoin to RIP again and again.
40:56
We forgot what it felt like to wake up every morning and
40:58
Bitcoin just keeps going higher. Guys, all right, look side
41:04
comment side comment. If you've been in Bitcoin, I
41:08
don't know, for the last couple of years, you may have not
41:14
experienced what it feels like to walk to wake up and watch
41:21
Bitcoin RIP all day and it's ripping up until you go to bed.
41:28
And you just having this thought in your head like it just,
41:31
there's no possible way it can continue to RIP tomorrow.
41:35
Then you go to sleep, you know, you get your nice beautiful 8
41:39
hours of sleep and you wake up and you're just like, it's even
41:43
higher, like it can't possibly do this again today.
41:48
And it just does that for a 14 day period minimum.
41:55
Feels so good. I really hope it's back on the
41:58
table. Man.
42:00
Even Ruston shaved his weave. Oh, man, not bearish, just
42:09
cautious. I mean, I agree.
42:11
I agree. I am cautious right now.
42:13
Again, I know I'm getting, I know I'm kind of trolling, kind
42:17
of having some fun. I wouldn't say that right now.
42:22
Look, I think most of us are already all in.
42:26
But if you're not all in right now, I would totally be cautious
42:31
about going all in at this particular moment.
42:34
I think it's still a very good buy.
42:36
I think you're going to be very happy about these buys in a year
42:39
or so. But if you are kind of expecting
42:43
it to go low or you might not want to go all in right now.
42:46
So I agree with JRR tokens, I would be a little cautious right
42:51
now. I am actually very cautious
42:52
right now. I'm I'm in disbelief.
42:54
I think I'm in more disbelief than hope.
42:58
I've only experienced losing money on Bitcoin.
43:04
Hey, welcome to the club man. This is how you earn your
43:07
stripes. And basically, you know, in 2017
43:13
I saw Bitcoin only RIP and I didn't understand Bitcoin at
43:18
all. I basically got lucky in 2018
43:21
when Bitcoin hit a bear market and I had to deal with the make
43:29
believe amount of wealth that I made, which wasn't even that
43:32
much. I was throwing like a couple 100
43:34
bucks, maybe 1000 bucks in, you know, a couple $1000 in and it
43:38
all just disappeared. That's when you got to really
43:41
understand what Bitcoin is. So if you've been here only
43:45
losing money in Bitcoin, but you're continuing to buy all the
43:47
way down, trust me, you are. You're going to be good.
43:57
You're going to be good. Just continue to buy more man.
44:02
Anyways, let's keep it moving. I'm having fun and rambling on
44:07
this one. Honestly, I feel good this
44:08
Monday guys, actually shout out to my boy Mahika Huddle.
44:13
I, I told you last week, he, you know, DM me.
44:15
He's like, bro, are you good? You sounded bad on Monday.
44:17
I was like, hey man, it's just the Monday Blues.
44:20
But today I don't have them. I'm like, oh man, maybe it's
44:23
because the price is going up. Maybe it's because I got some
44:27
good rest this week and I actually made some good food.
44:30
You know, I, I, I treated myself well.
44:33
I say it all the time, you know, sometimes you just need to eat
44:35
good and take a nap and life is so much better.
44:39
Though I did go to the gym today.
44:42
It was horrible. I hate the gym anyways.
44:44
ANYWAYS, clarity Act update seemingly bullish on it actually
44:49
passing. I think the odds are starting to
44:52
raise, rise, rise after this recent update we saw on Friday.
44:58
So I'm going to cover that for you guys right now.
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46:51
in the chat. Trolling in the chat.
46:53
I'm seeing what's up over here with the with the rumble
46:56
anyways. Anyways, anyways, dude, guys,
47:01
look, you guys are calling me about the gym.
47:06
If you like the gym, you're just not lifting heavy enough.
47:08
I hate the gym, but I'm disciplined and I go, OK, if you
47:13
like the gym, you're just not lifting heavy enough.
47:16
OK, I do. What's it I forget I forget what
47:19
it is. It's it's, you know, heavy,
47:21
heavier weight, less reps I'm telling you, it's horrible, but
47:26
I got to go. OK, so if you like the gym, I
47:29
mean, I like the views sometimes at the gym, but if you like the
47:32
gym, it's not heavy enough. OK, but we got to do it.
47:35
We got to do it. OK, enough, enough workout
47:38
advice here, but we got to do it.
47:40
OK, we got to do it. I hate it, but we got to do it.
47:43
All right, anyways, you guys aren't here for gym advice.
47:46
Well, maybe you are, but anyways, here we go.
47:50
Latest update on the clarity Act.
47:52
And I know I've been telling you guys for, I don't know man,
47:56
since this saga started, what last year or whatever, I don't
48:00
even know. I feel like I'm, I'm so burnt
48:03
out on the clarity act news, but it constantly keeps coming up
48:08
and it constantly keeps getting delayed.
48:11
And I, I think last week I told you I'm like, is the last time
48:15
I'm going to talk about it because it doesn't seem like
48:17
it's going anywhere. Well, lo and behold, on Friday
48:22
we did, we got an update and it seems to be going somewhere.
48:25
So maybe last minute, you know, 11:00, you know, just in the
48:32
door before midnight strikes. Here's the latest update.
48:35
So Eleanor Terrett, of course, you guys know I'm a huge fan of
48:38
what she's been doing because she's doing some pretty good
48:42
journalism in regards to what's happening in Washington, DC and
48:46
Bitcoin. So here's the latest tweet.
48:48
I think I, I do have some tweets from what came out on Friday,
48:52
but this just came out this morning and I kind of love her
48:55
work. So I'm I'm going to plug Eleanor
48:57
here. So tweet goes new stablecoin
49:00
yield deal, clears path to wait, clears path for Clarity Act
49:05
markup. What's next?
49:07
A key provision on software developers under section 1960 is
49:11
awaiting sign off from Senator Chuck Grassley as the Clarity
49:15
Act heads into final touch ups before markup.
49:19
OK, so that's a tweet. Here is her breakdown of it and
49:25
it goes. The Clarity Act on Friday moved
49:29
a step closer to a vote in the Senate Banking Committee
49:32
following the release of the long-awaited terms of a
49:35
compromise between crypto and banking stakeholders.
49:38
The two sides have been wrangling for about 3 months to
49:42
decide how companies should offer customers yield and reward
49:45
on stablecoin holdings. In a nutshell, the compromise
49:49
let's crypto firms offer rewards tied to stablecoin usage and
49:53
activity, but prohibits them from paying yield on idle
49:57
balances. For example, users can earn
50:01
perks like cash backs on transaction or free or
50:05
discounted memberships tied to platform usage, but cannot earn
50:09
APY on funds simply sitting in an account.
50:13
In other words, stable coins can't mimic traditional bank
50:16
accounts or high yield savings products as many in the crypto
50:20
industry had hoped. Instead, payment stable coins
50:23
will be used for, well, payments.
50:27
As reaction on X made clear, the deal is exactly that, a
50:30
compromise. Many in the crypto industry
50:33
arguing the blanket ban on offering yield hand they went to
50:36
the banks while banks are voicing concerns privately that
50:39
the compromise doesn't go far enough to prevent crypto
50:42
companies from finding loopholes.
50:44
Despite a clause that restricts, quote, economically or
50:47
functionally equivalent rewards broadly, stakeholder feedback
50:52
reflects what lead negotiators Thom Tillis and Angela also
50:56
Brooks had predicted. Quote, all of us will probably
50:59
walk away just a little bit unhappy.
51:02
That's what a compromise is, right?
51:03
Anyways, crypto trade groups, including the Blockchain
51:06
Association, Crypto Council for Innovation and Digital Chamber,
51:10
which represent a large swath of the industry, issued statements
51:13
supporting the compromise and urging the Senate Banking
51:15
Committee to move quickly to a markup.
51:18
Some feel that why the compromise isn't ideal.
51:20
It's enough to move forward and give the rest of the bill a
51:22
chance. Quote, in the context of
51:24
clarity, the industry should probably live with this, but the
51:27
banks are clearly winning this volley.
51:30
Banks, meanwhile, have yet to yet weigh in publicly since the
51:33
release of the yield compromise, but have ramped up calls for
51:35
changes in recent weeks, arguing the deal doesn't go far enough
51:38
to prevent deposit flight or mitigate broader financial
51:42
stability risks. Anyways, here is Senate Banking
51:47
staffer said time for everyone to move on from yield.
51:50
Banks should not turn a modest win into a loss.
51:54
I think one of the big kind of notes that we did here was
52:00
apparently Brian Armstrong was tweeting over the weekend and I,
52:05
I didn't pull it up. I, I honestly thought you was
52:07
covering this, but oh, here we go.
52:09
The exchanges CEO Brian Armstrong simply tweeted, mark
52:13
it up. And then we did get the
52:18
Coinbase's CPO or chief policy officer go on and say in the
52:21
end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards.
52:24
But we protected what matters, the ability for Americans to
52:28
earn rewards based on real usage of crypto platforms and
52:31
networks. So it looks like the Clarity Act
52:38
now is potentially going to get marked up as soon as May 11th,
52:46
which is the deadline that we've been hearing.
52:48
So that would be what next week? Wait, wouldn't see 11th.
52:52
Hold on, let me, let me let me check my calendar real quick so
52:56
I can give you the exact date. The 11th would be next Monday.
53:01
So maybe this gets marked up as quickly as one week from now.
53:08
And then basically if it gets marked up, it's going to hit the
53:11
president's desk and he is most likely going to just sign it
53:16
through. So a real I, I would, I would
53:21
argue swift change here, a real fast change.
53:26
Last week I was basically saying, look, as far as all the
53:31
news we know right now, it's probably like a 1% chance it's
53:37
going to go through. It seemed like it completely
53:39
start on the stablecoin rewards or stablecoin yield issue, which
53:44
is always probably the most head scratching moment of this
53:49
because I thought that's what the genius act was all about was
53:51
stablecoin regulation. This Clarity Act was supposed to
53:54
be for the broader Bitcoin crypto markets, and yet it
53:59
seemed like they were using the Clarity Act to backtrack on the
54:03
genius act. And we did see Trump kind of
54:06
throw his hat in the ring and it just kept getting delayed and
54:10
get getting delayed and getting delayed.
54:12
Now, again from last week, I was like, dude, this isn't going to
54:17
happen. It's completely over.
54:19
I think the prevailing sentiment was, I guess the best clarity
54:23
we're going to get is from the SEC and the CFTC, their
54:27
announcement of their joint venture to regulate or rather
54:32
write the rules so it better influences the Bitcoin industry.
54:38
Well, Friday game changer, I suppose.
54:43
The odds I think arising on that, I think I saw that was
54:45
like 44%. Now, if I, if I remember
54:48
correctly, I'm not the biggest prediction market guys,
54:52
prediction market guy. I don't really hold that much
54:55
faith in the prediction markets, but it seems like odds arising.
55:00
It seems like people are starting to feel a little
55:03
bullish of it actually going through.
55:04
I'm still on the fence of like, I don't even know what else is
55:08
really in this because we, we haven't, we, we don't, we
55:11
haven't seen it. We don't even know what what is
55:13
in this thing. And again, even though I don't
55:19
agree with Brian Armstrong very much, I do agree with the
55:23
statement that I'd probably would rather have no bill than a
55:26
very bad real. And now it seems like we are
55:30
getting a little too many compromises here, but it does
55:35
seem like everyone is waiting for the Clarity Act.
55:37
So look, without me being pessimistic fields on this idea.
55:43
If we get the markup by next Monday and it goes to the
55:49
president's desk because all it has to do is basically get
55:52
marked up and then it's going to get signed off on.
55:56
So almost like a 180 change from where we were last week to where
56:01
we are this week. Who knows what can happen in one
56:05
week from now. Maybe I'm coming back and like,
56:07
dude, I was hoping that we could talk about it for the last time,
56:15
but that's the latest update. Guys.
56:19
I agree with this actually. Odds passing isn't my concern.
56:25
Odds of it being good for Bitcoin is.
56:27
I totally, I totally agree with that 100%.
56:36
I, I think that personally, I, I, I agree with that.
56:46
I, I'm personally more concerned about what is actually in it
56:50
than of the odds passing or whether it passes or not.
56:55
I'm more concerned about what it is, you know, what, what what
56:59
are going to be the compromises. It's just going to be bad for us
57:03
as individual holders that that's really my biggest
57:06
concern. But hey, we'll see.
57:10
We'll see what happens. I mean, it's, it's a long week,
57:13
all right, It's a long week. Let's see what happens by the
57:16
end of the week. But that's the latest on it,
57:19
guys. So you know, if you tuned out
57:21
Friday afternoon, you might have missed this, but it looks like
57:26
the very big contentious stablecoin yield, stablecoin
57:29
reward compromise or concern, It seems like it's been flushed
57:33
out. Both sides aren't that happy,
57:36
which is what a compromise is. So it looks like it might get
57:41
through. And basically the prevailing
57:45
idea here and maybe the hold on, let me let me do the prevailing.
57:49
The prevailing idea is that once Clarity Act passes, then we're
57:53
going to see a huge influx of capital come into Bitcoin and
57:58
number is going to go up. Now with that in mind, if it
58:08
doesn't pass, probably probably going to see a sell in May
58:14
scenario. But really the big bigger idea
58:17
for me is like what? What is even in this thing?
58:20
It's probably going to be asked to be honest, but it's probably
58:24
going to hurt us more than benefit us.
58:26
It's probably going to help the banks and the shit coin
58:33
companies build a Moat. But hey, you know, I, I, it's
58:37
Monday. I can't be too cynical.
58:40
It's a Monday. Does declare that give us $1
58:43
million Bitcoin? No, I think it's only 250.
58:48
Actually, I'm with my boy. Is it Senor Gringo Poppy in the
58:51
chat that always says it's like Opti, when are we getting to 150
58:55
again? I don't know, man.
58:56
I'm with you. When are we?
58:57
Look, I know it's going to a million, I know it's going to go
59:01
to 250. I don't know when I know it's
59:05
going to. But could we at least get to 150
59:09
K like in my lifetime? Like, you know, I'm sick, I'm
59:18
boss, I'm tired, I'm tired, I'm losing my mind here in the
59:21
studio. I'm tired.
59:23
Anyways, let's wrap up the Monday show.
59:26
I'll be right back after this last commercial break and we
59:29
will chat about how cooked you are up is.
59:32
Guys, it's, you know, it's sad. It's very sad, but I'll be right
59:37
back. I want to give a shout out to
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OK, OK. After you talking to imaginary
1:01:23
people on the Internet. Yes.
1:01:25
Yes. I'm never going to live that one
1:01:28
down, huh? I know you're real.
1:01:31
It's just I only see numbers here.
1:01:34
OK, All right. Anyways, shout out to one of my
1:01:41
friends, personal friend Katie the Russian.
1:01:44
And if you don't know Katie the Russian, she built the company
1:01:48
Plan B Passport, which is or actually now it is Citizen X.
1:01:54
Forgive me, Katie, it was Plan B, Plan B passport where you can
1:01:58
buy passport. She's basically been for years
1:02:03
trying to educate bitcoiners on, you know, land arbitrage,
1:02:09
citizen arbitrage, where where we're moving.
1:02:15
You might want to be a little more mobile that that was her
1:02:18
whole kind of business idea. It did get sell sold to citizen
1:02:23
X, which is basically just a rebrand.
1:02:26
The idea is in the fourth turning sovereign individual
1:02:32
thesis. One of the ideal things that you
1:02:38
want is freedom to move. That's why a lot of Bitcoiners
1:02:42
love Bitcoin so much is because, hey, if shit hits the fan in
1:02:45
your country, you don't have to carry tons of bricks and you
1:02:49
don't have to be fearful of trying to cross the border with
1:02:53
those tons of bricks or your, you know, ounces of bricks or
1:02:58
your cash or your jewelry because it might get
1:03:01
confiscated. As we've seen throughout
1:03:02
history, that happens all the time.
1:03:06
And that's why Bitcoiners being very mobile with their wealth,
1:03:10
should probably want some some passports.
1:03:13
Well, she's continuing to kind of educate different countries
1:03:17
about what they're doing to their citizenry and obviously
1:03:21
why you might want to be a little more mobile and realize
1:03:25
what's going on. Well, she tweeted this over the
1:03:27
weekend. The European Commission
1:03:30
literally just dropped a research on how to collect more
1:03:34
taxes without making you angry enough to leave.
1:03:37
The TLDR is higher wealth taxes, inheritance taxes, and exit exit
1:03:43
taxes coming? And here is wealth taxation,
1:03:46
including net wealth, capital and exit taxes.
1:03:49
But before I read her full thread, let's go over to the
1:03:54
European Commission Hears Reports and Studies, a database
1:03:57
of reports and studies and form our work on taxation.
1:04:01
The European Commission regularly publishes reports and
1:04:03
studies to better inform our work on taxation.
1:04:07
You can see here 2026 Wealth taxation including net wealth,
1:04:11
capital and exit tax. The study on wealth taxation
1:04:15
including net wealth, capital and exit taxes aims to provide a
1:04:18
better understanding of these taxes, they're interrelation and
1:04:22
consequences. Now I will just read this blurb
1:04:25
here before I give you Katie's take on this.
1:04:30
So wealth taxation including net wealth, capital and exit taxes.
1:04:33
The study Wealth Taxation including Net Wealth, Capital
1:04:36
and Exit Taxes was prepared for the European Commission
1:04:39
Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union.
1:04:41
The report is split into two separate volumes.
1:04:44
The first volume examines wealth related taxes, while the second
1:04:47
volume provides an in depth analysis of selected countries
1:04:51
both in Europe and worldwide to present examples of net wealth
1:04:54
taxation. The report is set against a
1:04:57
backdrop of rising concern about the distribution of wealth in
1:05:00
Europe, the erosion of taxes on wealth and wealth transfers over
1:05:03
recent decades, and renewed fiscal needs in the wake of
1:05:06
multiple crises over the past three decades.
1:05:09
Private wealth in the EU and the EU has grown substantially and
1:05:15
has become more concentrated among households at the top of
1:05:18
the wealth distribution. OK, so that's their blurb.
1:05:22
Now let's go to Katie, the Russians breakdown of this.
1:05:27
She goes, well, trying to figure out how to tax you more.
1:05:32
They examine 5 category categories of wealth tax, net
1:05:35
wealth tax, tax on unrealized gains, realized capital gains
1:05:39
tax, inheritance and gift tax, and an exit tax.
1:05:43
The 2 they want to push hardest inheritance and an exit tax.
1:05:48
Inheritance tax is their top go to the quote great wealth
1:05:52
transfer from boomers is about to explode the tax base.
1:05:55
The report claims taxing inherited wealth has quote
1:05:58
modest effects on entrepreneurship, so they want
1:06:02
to close every loophole wealthy families currently use.
1:06:06
Exit taxes are obviously my favorite part of the report.
1:06:09
They want them applied to unrealized gains the moment you
1:06:12
change residence. I also really like that part
1:06:15
quote. International mobility responses
1:06:18
are often overstated. Translation.
1:06:22
They have decided you will not actually leave.
1:06:24
They are deciding policy on the assumption that wealthy
1:06:27
Europeans will just suck it up. They will close the exit door.
1:06:31
They will call it standardized reporting while simply killing
1:06:34
financial privacy. They will tax until nobody is
1:06:37
left at building anything. Everybody needs an exit strategy
1:06:43
now. Obviously we've been seeing this
1:06:50
play out in Europe for a long time.
1:06:54
And I do kind of agree with Katie on on one part there that
1:06:58
like most of us don't want to leave our homes unless things
1:07:02
really, really get bad. But what we have seen at least
1:07:05
in the US in particular now Europe is obviously totally
1:07:09
different continent, you know, totally different culture.
1:07:12
But in the US in particular, remember last week I talked
1:07:15
about the billionaire tax in California.
1:07:18
It wasn't just about wealthy people and the redistribution of
1:07:22
wealth from wealthy people. It was basically a backdoor
1:07:27
attempt to tax everyone. Or put another way, backdoor
1:07:31
attempt from the government to steal as much as they can from
1:07:36
you. Now, This is why I like the
1:07:38
framing of the beginning of this how to collect more taxes
1:07:42
without making you angry enough to leave, or how to steal from
1:07:45
you more without making you too angry to leave or you know, go
1:07:50
even further. Now, obviously, on a very
1:07:56
simple, high level view, This is why you probably want to put
1:08:01
some of your wealth in Bitcoin. If you are a wealthy European,
1:08:04
if you're European at all at this point, you probably want to
1:08:08
own some Bitcoin. As we've been covering for a
1:08:12
long time on this show, the powers that be, the culture that
1:08:16
is the driving force behind the powers that be is they just try
1:08:23
to milk as much of your wealth from you as possible and they
1:08:27
try to cloak it in these narratives better feel good.
1:08:32
That is for the greater good that you need to, you know, pull
1:08:36
your own weight and the greedy rich people are taking too much.
1:08:42
I don't know. It sounds like they're, you
1:08:43
know, wanting to steal from their citizens.
1:08:45
But what do I know? I'm, I'm just an extremist
1:08:49
Bitcoiner here. You know, I, I just hold him.
1:08:51
I just hold Bitcoin and I don't trust politicians much.
1:08:56
Full disclosure, full transparency, that's where I'm
1:08:58
at. I hate backdoor chill.
1:09:09
Hey yo chill, it is a Monday show, don't do me like that.
1:09:12
But also in the context of what Katie has basically dedicated
1:09:19
her life to is helping people be more sovereign.
1:09:24
Obviously it's not looking good and the push towards maybe you
1:09:32
know, some other form of passports that you are more
1:09:35
mobile. I know look, personally it
1:09:38
doesn't like it. That really doesn't resonate
1:09:41
with me because I, I truly don't want to leave the US.
1:09:47
It really does feel like anti patriotic to me.
1:09:49
Like man, I can't give up here. I can't just get up and run.
1:09:54
It's cowardice, but as her company used to be called Plan
1:10:00
B, you always want to have a Plan B and you don't want to be
1:10:06
in a position where your government 'cause as we heard in
1:10:12
the beginning from Arthur Hayes, you know, they, they are
1:10:15
belligerent military leaders belligerent.
1:10:23
Can I say bloodless on YouTube, the Ledger tyrants, cultural
1:10:28
tyrants. I think I could say that we know
1:10:33
what, what they want to do. And now what is most interesting
1:10:36
about where we currently are in the cultural zeitgeist, in the
1:10:40
timeline of events, you know, since 2020 or sorry, since 2010,
1:10:48
what have what have we seen? We've seen a very strong push
1:10:52
towards, as most of the kids say, a woke culture, ESG, you
1:10:57
know, police speech, thought police.
1:11:00
And in the last couple of years, particularly the last couple of
1:11:04
years, like, you know, since probably 20, I guess maybe just
1:11:10
last year, it seems like there is it almost seems like woke is
1:11:14
dead. That that's kind of that was
1:11:16
kind of been the prevailing conversation that oh, you know,
1:11:20
less censorship on the Internet. We can finally talk about
1:11:23
things. Comedy's coming back, you know,
1:11:26
maybe the world's healing and, and then also BlackRock giving
1:11:31
up on ESG. They're no longer pushing ESG
1:11:33
and then AI boom happen. And now we're no longer going
1:11:38
to, you know, boil the oceans. And we actually need more
1:11:41
energy, but only for data centers because AI is going to
1:11:44
help us be more productive. And, you know, AI is going to be
1:11:49
so we don't have to work and everyone's going to get Ubi.
1:11:51
And so we're, we are seeing a different form of what was in
1:11:56
the past. But with that being said, I
1:12:01
think the victory lapse that a lot of us have taken on Twitter,
1:12:06
I think they're a little premature because what's the
1:12:08
saying? You know, when an animal's
1:12:10
cornered, that's when it's most dangerous.
1:12:13
And it seems like from every angle they are trying to
1:12:18
maneuver to make sure that one, they can track and bag all of
1:12:23
your movements, which they basically already can, that they
1:12:27
connect your, your real ID or not in the US, not the real I,
1:12:32
not the card, the real ID, but your, your physical meetspace
1:12:36
identification, your government name to a digital ID so that
1:12:40
they can get you on a, some form of, you know, WeChat of the West
1:12:46
a la what Elon Musk has been saying, or a CBDC.
1:12:52
So that we are in a digital panopticon forever.
1:12:57
And even though the attempts seem to be failing, they aren't
1:13:03
stopping. And This is why, personally, I
1:13:08
think we need Bitcoin more than ever.
1:13:11
We need privacy tools in Bitcoin more than ever.
1:13:14
And we've seen the attacks on privacy tools.
1:13:17
We need people using Bitcoin, storing their wealth in Bitcoin,
1:13:21
using Bitcoin for buying goods and services.
1:13:25
It is going to be a consciousness shift that needs
1:13:28
to happen. And for lack of better, or
1:13:31
rather unfortunately, most people still think that we're
1:13:37
the crazy ones. They're like, they would never
1:13:39
happen. A lot of people still believe in
1:13:41
the the lie of government that they're here to protect you,
1:13:45
that they're here to serve you. If 2020 wasn't a wake up call,
1:13:51
if the last five years haven't been a wake up call, that the
1:13:56
government, the people in power are out for themselves.
1:14:00
And they'll just cloak this in any narrative so that you fall
1:14:05
for your own demise, so that you vote for the things that are
1:14:09
going to hurt you. But of course, it's in a it's in
1:14:13
a good narrative, makes you feel good.
1:14:19
We like we, we're still the minority here.
1:14:23
There's still a lot of people that believe that.
1:14:27
I guess it's our duty, not just here, it's simply Bitcoin, but
1:14:29
you guys to try to get more people to understand where we
1:14:34
are. And I don't mean by berating
1:14:36
them. I don't mean by, you know,
1:14:37
calling them idiots and, you know, you sounding like a
1:14:40
lunatic, like Charlie Day on the chalkboard.
1:14:45
You we need a little we need some tact when we do this.
1:14:49
And I I'm probably not a good person to do this.
1:14:52
All right, Full disclosure, I'm I'm definitely not the guy to go
1:14:57
out there and be calm, cool and collective and tell the masses
1:15:02
that, hey, man, you know, they're coming after you.
1:15:04
I'm not Paul Revere here. Well, maybe I'm more Paul
1:15:07
Revere. Wait, hold on.
1:15:10
Maybe I am Paul Revere. Yeah, maybe.
1:15:15
Maybe I am the guy, you know, on the horse sprinting through the
1:15:22
the villages saying hey, they're coming.
1:15:25
And then maybe, maybe it's you guys that now are more aware and
1:15:30
and can be cool and calm and collected and tell everyone
1:15:34
around there you know, each one, Teach one.
1:15:40
I know, I know, I know these people can't be saved.
1:15:43
Bro, it's it's so unfortunate. It is that is the true black
1:15:49
pill. That is the true it's so over is
1:15:54
because the majority of people are just just asleep at the
1:16:01
wheel man. But hey, the white pill is it
1:16:06
doesn't take that many people to make sure this doesn't happen.
1:16:11
But we do have to make sure. Who are the British?
1:16:17
I don't know, man. You know, I don't think it's
1:16:21
necessarily it's not, it's not one.
1:16:25
It's not one country. OK.
1:16:29
How do how how do we say, you know, it's a global conglomerate
1:16:35
that wants to keep us in servitude forever anyways
1:16:42
anyways, all right, guys, it is. He was a was Paul Revere a
1:16:52
silversmith really. Is that true?
1:16:57
You're more George Carlin. Honestly, I'll take that.
1:17:03
That, George. Look, I love George Carlin
1:17:05
growing up, but this is a little more on the left, right?
1:17:10
But I do like George. George Collins to go, you know?
1:17:14
I'll take that. I'll take that.
1:17:15
George Carlin of Bitcoin. He tells better stories than me.
1:17:19
But wait, was Paul Revere actually a silversmith?
1:17:22
That's interesting. Anyways, anyways, Davos is
1:17:26
coming. Davos is coming.
1:17:29
Yeah, that's what's Tom Luonga say.
1:17:31
City of London is coming. City of London is coming
1:17:36
anyways. Anyways, Anyways, guys, it's a
1:17:39
Monday show. I appreciate every single one of
1:17:41
you guys, but that's all I got for you, man.
1:17:45
I know I'd look. George Carlin was funny.
1:17:48
He was hilarious, OK, He was hilarious.
1:17:51
I love him growing up. I still probably do love him.
1:17:53
I haven't listened to him in a long time, but some of the clips
1:17:56
I hear, sometimes I'm like, oh, still sounds like a
1:18:00
collectivist. But hey, you know, we can't shit
1:18:05
on the shoulders, can't shit on the people whose shoulders we
1:18:09
stand on. All right, pause.
1:18:14
That was gross. That was gross.
1:18:15
I'm sorry. That was that was that was
1:18:19
gross. Anyways, guys, I'll see you
1:18:20
tomorrow, man. Have a good rest of your day.
1:18:26
You're another deal. Like it's Monday.
1:18:30
Get in the gym. I know, I I know, I look I know
1:18:33
20 minutes ago I told you I hated it, but I'm disciplined
1:18:37
and I keep going What do I always say eat some good food,
1:18:41
get some rest get some sun call your loved ones get outside for
1:18:45
a little bit and of course wait get some sun and outside
1:18:50
basically the same thing of course buy some Bitcoin maybe
1:18:55
don't go all in right now. Don't don't you know, smash by
1:18:59
with all of your Fiat currently, but definitely continue to buy
1:19:04
some Bitcoin. You're going to really, really,
1:19:11
really be mad at yourself if we start ripping up.
1:19:18
Anyways, peace out y'all. I love you guys.
1:19:20
I'll see you tomorrow. Have a good rest of your day.
1:19:23
Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
1:19:27
Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
1:19:30
independence.