Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 2026 World Cup Preview with Daniele Fisichella

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2026 World Cup Preview with Daniele Fisichella · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
0:13
Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, your host.
0:17
Speaker 1: Back at it with the Prime Minister of DJ Nation, Stucky.
0:20
Speaker 1: Our stats hound to Evan Abrams. We're talking World Cup today.
0:25
Speaker 1: I will give you my top twenty five Stucky, the
0:28
Speaker 1: best World Cup players that you need to pay attention to.
0:33
Speaker 1: We're talking Golden Boot nominees. But I'm gonna keep you
0:36
Speaker 1: on the edge of your seat for that. Get in price.
0:40
Speaker 1: For the NBA Finals in San Antonio, the average price
0:45
Speaker 1: is over twenty five hundred dollars per game. In New
0:50
Speaker 1: York at MSG over four thousand dollars per game. Gentlemen,
0:58
Speaker 1: I don't think I could ever stomach even if I
1:01
Speaker 1: was absolutely loaded, which after this NFL season hopefully I am.
1:06
Speaker 1: I don't think I could stumic spending that much going
1:09
Speaker 1: to any sporting event. What would be the max price
1:12
Speaker 1: for you for the thing that you want to go
1:14
Speaker 1: to the most. What would be the max price you
1:17
Speaker 1: would be willing to spend for a decent seat. We're
1:19
Speaker 1: not talking court side. I'm not putting in the nosebleeds,
1:22
Speaker 1: middle of the road, center court, midfield, whatever, Stucky, what's that?
1:27
Speaker 1: What's that number for you? Drop dead price?
1:32
Speaker 2: Something I really want to go to? I don't know,
1:33
Speaker 2: one thousand dollars. I'd rather go to a bar and
1:36
Speaker 2: spend a thousand dollars buying everyone drinks and enjoying a
1:40
Speaker 2: game at a bar. But I don't know. I'll say
1:44
Speaker 2: a thousand dollars for the NBA Finals at MSG, maybe,
1:48
Speaker 2: like because I don't really care about the NBA or
1:49
Speaker 2: either of these teams, but it'd be cool experience. Maybe
1:52
Speaker 2: i'd drop like five hundred to go, but I'd much
1:57
Speaker 2: rather just go spend a thousand dollars at the bar.
2:00
Speaker 1: Premium seats for the World Cup also, since we're talking
2:02
Speaker 1: World Cup today, going for around ten grand and probably
2:06
Speaker 1: north of that depending on who you're sitting next to.
2:09
Speaker 1: But Evan, what about you, what's the what's the number?
2:12
Speaker 1: Are you willing to go exorbitant here? More so than
2:15
Speaker 1: Stuckey who's just sitting at the bar?
2:17
Speaker 3: No, I just I But my issue is I just
2:18
Speaker 3: don't have the fandom, Like I just don't know if
2:20
Speaker 3: I care. Like I'm a Knicks fan, born and raised
2:22
Speaker 3: in New York like, I, you know, it'd be great,
2:23
Speaker 3: but I just don't have like the care and the want,
2:25
Speaker 3: like five hundred bucks or so, but that's just not
2:27
Speaker 3: getting me into the game, So I don't really care.
2:29
Speaker 3: I mean, I you was probably my biggest uh like expense,
2:33
Speaker 3: like going to the college football stuff, like I went
2:35
Speaker 3: to the semifinal, like all sorts of different expenses around that,
2:38
Speaker 3: and that was even the final was ridiculous.
2:40
Speaker 2: But this for the Knicks is patently insane. So it
2:44
Speaker 2: is what it is.
2:45
Speaker 1: I think it's tough for us in the sports betting
2:48
Speaker 1: world to think about spending that much on a ticket
2:51
Speaker 1: when you could just place that on a bet.
2:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like, well I don't think it's like that,
2:56
Speaker 3: and it is an experience, like it is fun going
2:59
Speaker 3: to see these things.
3:00
Speaker 1: It's just I would say putting four grand. Putting four
3:03
Speaker 1: grand on the Knicks would be an experience as well.
3:05
Speaker 1: But that's fair.
3:07
Speaker 2: Well, you you buy a ticket for ten grand and
3:12
Speaker 2: then you put ten grand on the Knicks and nope
3:17
Speaker 2: of covers or after you go to the bar and
3:19
Speaker 2: drink your saurows away.
3:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, you might want to correct responsibly, right exactly, but
3:24
Speaker 1: definitely save a couple of bucks just.
3:26
Speaker 2: By the way we are recording. We're recording NBA NA
3:28
Speaker 2: World Cup episode today Wednesday. I just wanted to get
3:31
Speaker 2: that out there, so we're like, we changed, we didn't.
3:36
Speaker 1: No, I wear this every day. I don't know what
3:38
Speaker 1: you're talking about.
3:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is what I spend my entire year
3:42
Speaker 2: waiting for a day we to talk about the World
3:45
Speaker 2: Cup in the NBA. This is what I live for.
3:48
Speaker 1: Bowling Green previews coming your way later on in the summer.
3:51
Speaker 1: More of the favorites coming up. World Cup bets galore,
3:54
Speaker 1: betting the beautiful game on the beautiful Draft Kings app.
3:58
Speaker 1: Let's dive into a quick chain about DK. The NBA
4:02
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4:28
Speaker 1: The crown is yours. The world's biggest sporting event is
4:32
Speaker 1: on the horizon. World Cup twenty twenty six and here
4:35
Speaker 1: to preview the action and our action danie La physy Kela,
4:39
Speaker 1: football journalist in the UK. We brought in the big guns,
4:44
Speaker 1: danie La, thanks for joining us. Really looking forward to
4:46
Speaker 1: the chat.
4:47
Speaker 4: Hi Brandon, thanks for having money. It's a pleasure, thank you.
4:51
Speaker 1: So not only is this year's event held in North America,
4:55
Speaker 1: but it's the first time that we've had forty eight
4:57
Speaker 1: countries involved. How does that change the dynamic of the bracket.
5:01
Speaker 4: Well, it changes massively because obviously a tournament of such
5:05
Speaker 4: a magnitude lends itself to surprises, more teams than ever before,
5:11
Speaker 4: more games hundred and four than ever before, and hey,
5:14
Speaker 4: to win the World Cup this time you need eight
5:17
Speaker 4: games rather than seven, So of course it changes everything,
5:21
Speaker 4: changes everything that we were used to also, because not
5:24
Speaker 4: only the top two teams of each group will progress,
5:28
Speaker 4: but then there are eight third best place teams that
5:31
Speaker 4: will progress, which means the bracket it's extremely unpredictable. You
5:37
Speaker 4: do need a certain degree in maybe mathematics or physics.
5:41
Speaker 4: You need to make some calculations or much Day two
5:44
Speaker 4: and much they three to understand who you're going to
5:46
Speaker 4: play who, And especially I think when it comes to
5:49
Speaker 4: this tournament, because the third place teams will qualify, it
5:54
Speaker 4: will make the draws in the group stages much more valuable.
5:59
Speaker 4: Teams can quali with three points and the good goal difference.
6:03
Speaker 4: With three draws and the zero goal difference, teams might qualify.
6:08
Speaker 4: The last time the third best placed teams qualified, that
6:12
Speaker 4: was in nineteen ninety four US nineteen ninety four because
6:15
Speaker 4: back then the tournament had only twenty four teams, and
6:18
Speaker 4: you know who were the third best teams that qualify Argentina, Belgium,
6:22
Speaker 4: United States and Italy the finalist in that year, which
6:25
Speaker 4: tells you that is absolutely unpredictable. But I think because
6:31
Speaker 4: of the format, maybe if people are looking for a
6:34
Speaker 4: battering angles, first of all, the goals market, could that
6:38
Speaker 4: extra causies, could the drows be more valuable, bring the
6:42
Speaker 4: goals total down? And think about also the so many
6:45
Speaker 4: nations that are debutants in this World Cup, how much
6:48
Speaker 4: a draw would mean to them to bring back home
6:51
Speaker 4: even if they don't qualify.
6:54
Speaker 1: It's fascinating. There's a lot of angles there that I
6:57
Speaker 1: want to dig into. Being in North America, Canada, United States, Mexico.
7:03
Speaker 1: Is there any sort of home field, home pitch advantages
7:07
Speaker 1: that exist in the World Cup?
7:09
Speaker 4: Hundred percent, Brandon handred percent. The hosts are always favorites
7:15
Speaker 4: to do well at the World Cup. In fact, the
7:18
Speaker 4: statistical models that we have analyzed is that they got
7:22
Speaker 4: at zero point fifty seven goals per match advantage, so
7:26
Speaker 4: they don't quite start one goal ahead, but they do
7:30
Speaker 4: start ahead compared if they were not playing a home
7:35
Speaker 4: and you know, if you look also the specifics of
7:37
Speaker 4: these three teams, well, first of all Mexico, the first
7:41
Speaker 4: that they've been in a War Cup is when they
7:42
Speaker 4: hosted it nineteen seventy nineteen eighty six, so again they
7:46
Speaker 4: could dream of a quarter final. The US, of course,
7:49
Speaker 4: in nineteen ninety four they reached the round of sixteen,
7:53
Speaker 4: they were knocked out by Brazil. Canada. To participation to
7:57
Speaker 4: the World Cups, they never won a single man they
8:00
Speaker 4: lost them all. But they do have a chance here. However,
8:04
Speaker 4: there is a fip side of the coin because not
8:06
Speaker 4: having played in the qualifiers doesn't quite give you the
8:11
Speaker 4: spectrum and the idea of how good these teams are.
8:15
Speaker 4: We do know for example, the US teams probably the
8:18
Speaker 4: best generation they had had since you know, soccer took
8:22
Speaker 4: off in the US thirty years ago. But they are
8:25
Speaker 4: also under pressure. They probably got the best manager in
8:28
Speaker 4: Marico Pojetino, there is still quite a lot of doubt
8:32
Speaker 4: about their tactical setup. If you like Mexico's expectations a eye,
8:38
Speaker 4: they could be a burden. Of course, they are ranked
8:40
Speaker 4: fifteen in the world, so there is the expectation for
8:44
Speaker 4: them to go ahead and finally get to the so
8:48
Speaker 4: famous King to Partido the fifth match, only that this
8:52
Speaker 4: time there are more matches at the US in the
8:55
Speaker 4: World Cup, so you need six games to actually reach
8:58
Speaker 4: the quarter finally and then ultimately Canada probably the one
9:02
Speaker 4: considered the weakest of the three OOS nations, but actually
9:05
Speaker 4: they are the most informed. Only one defeat in five games.
9:09
Speaker 4: They keep a lot of clean sheets, ten clean shits
9:12
Speaker 4: in the last fourteen, including a two nil win against Uzbekistan.
9:16
Speaker 4: And let me say, of all the three nations, maybe
9:19
Speaker 4: Canada the only one who's got a world class players
9:23
Speaker 4: in the runk Alfonso Davis, who of course plays fory
9:26
Speaker 4: in Munich. So yeah, big chances for the three of
9:29
Speaker 4: them to make it to the round of thirty two
9:31
Speaker 4: for sure.
9:33
Speaker 2: Before we get back to the teams in the World Cup.
9:36
Speaker 2: I'm Italian, you're Italian? I would be remissed by then't
9:39
Speaker 2: ask you about Italy. They're in complete crisis mode and
9:43
Speaker 2: it's three straight The European tournaments were a disaster. Is
9:48
Speaker 2: there any light at the end of the tunnel for
9:50
Speaker 2: Italian soccer?
9:51
Speaker 4: Well, I don't think we can get any wars where
9:54
Speaker 4: we are now, so the only way is up, as
9:56
Speaker 4: the famous song once said. But you know, I think
9:59
Speaker 4: they're It cannot just be by fluke, or it cannot
10:02
Speaker 4: just be by a combination of results. There needs to
10:05
Speaker 4: be a proper rebuild and a proper structure of Italian football,
10:09
Speaker 4: starting really from the very bottom. How do we give
10:12
Speaker 4: opportunities to the young players? How do we make sure
10:15
Speaker 4: the Seria teams give them opportunities and they actually play them,
10:19
Speaker 4: Because let's face it, Italy could have well made it
10:22
Speaker 4: to the World Cup. There were only one penalty away,
10:24
Speaker 4: but a thing that would have been papering over the
10:27
Speaker 4: cracks because going through the playoffs, I think for Italy
10:30
Speaker 4: was already at downsize, and also for the second time
10:33
Speaker 4: in a row after we didn't qualify for the twenty
10:36
Speaker 4: twenty two World Cup. But now it's about trying to
10:39
Speaker 4: give young players, Italianian players which are produced in numbers
10:44
Speaker 4: and they are as good as their peers, the opportunity
10:48
Speaker 4: to play at the highest possible level and a thing
10:50
Speaker 4: that would only benefit the national team. But it will
10:52
Speaker 4: take time, of course, it's not a quick fix. First
10:56
Speaker 4: we need a new chairman of the Football Association, then
10:59
Speaker 4: we need a new managers and then comes of course,
11:02
Speaker 4: the Euros are the qualifiers and the Work Cup the
11:05
Speaker 4: next one, which is obviously we hope to make it,
11:08
Speaker 4: but is a long long time.
11:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of work to do. But getting back
11:12
Speaker 2: to the teams in the field mentioned you know the
11:16
Speaker 2: home potential home field advantage, so to speak. Another angle
11:21
Speaker 2: there is this is going to be you know, many
11:23
Speaker 2: of these matches are going to be played in the
11:25
Speaker 2: US in the summer, right, some southern cities. It's going
11:29
Speaker 2: to be hot and humid. How much of an impact
11:32
Speaker 2: is that? Is that going to slow pace down?
11:35
Speaker 3: Right?
11:35
Speaker 2: Teams can't play with as much tempo. What are your
11:38
Speaker 2: thoughts on the potential weather and is it a certain
11:40
Speaker 2: advantage for specific teams.
11:43
Speaker 4: For hot nations. For traditionally hot nations, so the South
11:46
Speaker 4: America and the Africans, this could be an advantage of
11:50
Speaker 4: course because they are more acclimatized as well as the
11:53
Speaker 4: host nations. But the majority of the top players are
11:56
Speaker 4: the best players in the planet. Play in Europe, where
11:59
Speaker 4: the climate is called to mild to say so that
12:03
Speaker 4: could be of course be nullified. But you know, playing
12:06
Speaker 4: in the afternoon, playing at high temperatures favors those teams
12:11
Speaker 4: who can keep the ball and can make the ball
12:14
Speaker 4: do the work. If the ball runs, you don't have
12:17
Speaker 4: to and you know, as once Roberto Badgers, the great
12:20
Speaker 4: Italian said, well the ball doesn't sweat, so obviously you
12:24
Speaker 4: need to make the ball move and make the other
12:26
Speaker 4: teams chase the game. So of course you look at
12:28
Speaker 4: the European teams like Spain, like France, or even the
12:32
Speaker 4: likes of the South America like Brazil or Argentina Portugal
12:36
Speaker 4: as well, who's better able to keep the ball and
12:39
Speaker 4: make of course the other opposition chase because in a
12:42
Speaker 4: World Cup where there is an extra match, that obviously
12:46
Speaker 4: it is going to count. But of course it's also
12:49
Speaker 4: about squad rotation. Squad that the twenty six man roster
12:54
Speaker 4: probably will be more use than ever before. So there
12:57
Speaker 4: are a lot of condition to take into account, plus
12:59
Speaker 4: of straggling, you know, traveling from one side to another.
13:03
Speaker 4: Of the US, probably Mexico and Canada when it comes
13:06
Speaker 4: to the knockout stages can have an impact. But you know,
13:09
Speaker 4: the good thing is that sportsman and sports science is
13:13
Speaker 4: developed as never before, and whereas we saw in nineteen
13:17
Speaker 4: ninety four, the world. Of course some surprises in terms
13:20
Speaker 4: of like you know, Sweden and Bulgaria get into the
13:23
Speaker 4: court to the semi finals, Argentina being knocked out earlier.
13:27
Speaker 4: That could have been down to under preparation. I don't
13:30
Speaker 4: think this is going to be the case in this
13:32
Speaker 4: World Cup.
13:34
Speaker 1: It's interesting about that is that you have in just
13:36
Speaker 1: in this side of the globe, we've got so many
13:38
Speaker 1: different climates. I mean, it's Canada comfortable playing in Mexico.
13:42
Speaker 1: There's are two different worlds. So that's definitely something that
13:46
Speaker 1: could not only impact countries in Europe and in Asia,
13:50
Speaker 1: but it could impact countries on this side of the
13:53
Speaker 1: globe as well.
13:55
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I'm just gonna follow something along because I was
14:00
Speaker 2: thinking maybe some of these very hot, humid games, it
14:04
Speaker 2: could slow down the tempo of the game, maybe suppress
14:08
Speaker 2: scoring a bit. But I was reading this morning that
14:12
Speaker 2: there's a couple of rule changes, maybe potentially more red cards.
14:16
Speaker 2: They want to also speed up the pace of play.
14:19
Speaker 2: When I think back to sports that I cover, and
14:23
Speaker 2: bet you know, there's every year, like in the NFL,
14:27
Speaker 2: you'll see, hey, we're gonna emphasize this, or we're gonna,
14:30
Speaker 2: you know, we have this rule change, and then early on,
14:34
Speaker 2: right there's there's a big emphasis on this, and then
14:37
Speaker 2: after a while it kind of goes back to normal.
14:40
Speaker 2: Is that kind of how World Cup rule changes work?
14:44
Speaker 2: Like there might be an emphasis early on in some
14:46
Speaker 2: matches on some of these things, and it's really just
14:49
Speaker 2: not much to You're not really taking much from these
14:51
Speaker 2: potential rule changes or is there something there?
14:54
Speaker 4: No, I think there is something there because FIFA and
14:57
Speaker 4: the organizers of the World Cup are probably terrified of
15:02
Speaker 4: producing a boring spectacles for the US audience, the Mexican audience,
15:06
Speaker 4: the Canadian audience. We are used two very different sort
15:10
Speaker 4: of sports. I mean, you guys are used to high
15:12
Speaker 4: scoring games, and whereas a football game is never going
15:15
Speaker 4: to go into the dozens or hundreds, of course, because
15:19
Speaker 4: it's a different scoring system, the nil nil, the one
15:22
Speaker 4: nil that is somehow for football purists, probably scarce the organizers.
15:27
Speaker 4: So all these interventions are made to tackle the obstructive
15:32
Speaker 4: tactics and the time wasting, which I think is also
15:36
Speaker 4: for the good of the game. But you know, cooling
15:39
Speaker 4: breaks will be introduced as well, so if in a
15:42
Speaker 4: way we try to speed up the game and make
15:44
Speaker 4: sure teams don't just have the players rolling onto the
15:48
Speaker 4: pitch or the goalkeeper asking for medical attentions every five minutes.
15:52
Speaker 4: On the other hand we try they will try also
15:54
Speaker 4: to slow down the game to give players the opportunity
15:57
Speaker 4: to brief so it will be a very interesting acting balance.
16:02
Speaker 4: But you know, if you remember in Qatar twenty twenty two,
16:04
Speaker 4: we saw the massive at the time at the end,
16:07
Speaker 4: they were like fourteen to fifteen minutes of the time
16:10
Speaker 4: to tackle time wasting, this has been almost reduced. We
16:13
Speaker 4: don't see that anymore, and I think it's being rationalized.
16:17
Speaker 4: So where as I expect, probably in the first few
16:19
Speaker 4: games to be extremely strict with those rules, you know,
16:22
Speaker 4: with the substitutions, with the yellow card as the tournament
16:25
Speaker 4: goes by, perhaps they will try to be a little
16:29
Speaker 4: bit more lenient, because again there is also the thinking
16:33
Speaker 4: what if a star player gets booked and then misses
16:37
Speaker 4: the next match because it took too long to come
16:39
Speaker 4: out of the pitch. So again you want to preserve
16:41
Speaker 4: that part of the spectacle as well. But you know
16:44
Speaker 4: they have a job in their hands. Well, the more
16:46
Speaker 4: rules they put, the more difficult the officials and organizer,
16:50
Speaker 4: the mega for themselves. So we just have to wait
16:52
Speaker 4: and see.
16:53
Speaker 1: Really finine, sure, let's dig into the bracket itself. There's
16:58
Speaker 1: always a group of death, the toughest one out there.
17:02
Speaker 1: Don't know how it's gonna go. Which one is that?
17:06
Speaker 4: Well, for me, it's Group F for two reasons, mainly
17:10
Speaker 4: because there are two European teams in it, the Netherlands
17:15
Speaker 4: and Sweden. Then he got Japan, who's probably the best
17:19
Speaker 4: Japan ever. This is the best team they ever qualify
17:23
Speaker 4: to a World Cup. And then he got Tunisia, who
17:26
Speaker 4: as everyone's night marine terms. They're gonna be dogged, they're
17:29
Speaker 4: gonna be well drilled, They're gonna basically defend for their
17:34
Speaker 4: life in a low block and they will be very
17:37
Speaker 4: hard to break down. Now, the two Europeans teams in
17:40
Speaker 4: this side, you will expect them to qualify al those
17:43
Speaker 4: with them are a very curious case. If you look
17:46
Speaker 4: at the World Cup qualifiers, you think, how did they
17:49
Speaker 4: actually qualify? They finish bottom of the group. Well, they
17:51
Speaker 4: were terrible, but there is something called the Nations League
17:55
Speaker 4: which gave them a route via the playoffs, and then
17:59
Speaker 4: they change them on halfway through the qualifiers. Got Grandpotter,
18:03
Speaker 4: former Chelsea and Brighton manager. He got them structured, he
18:06
Speaker 4: got them organized, a little bit more proactive, and they
18:08
Speaker 4: got two fairly decent strikers Victor Yoker as a Premier
18:12
Speaker 4: League winner, Champions League finalist and Alexander Izak, who broke
18:16
Speaker 4: the transfer record the Liverpool last summer. Didn't quite have
18:19
Speaker 4: the season he expected, but we do but you know,
18:21
Speaker 4: score few goals as well with Duff from two a
18:24
Speaker 4: thing that can be extremely, extremely dangerous. But if you
18:28
Speaker 4: look at the projections of our statistical system, which is
18:32
Speaker 4: called Betsy, only three point five three three point fifty
18:35
Speaker 4: three points difference between top Netherlands and bottom of the
18:39
Speaker 4: Group two Nisia, which means it's going to be extremely tight.
18:43
Speaker 4: But even lower is the difference between the projected top
18:46
Speaker 4: and bottom in Group A, Group B, and Group D.
18:50
Speaker 4: And you know what's the common denominated there host nations.
18:54
Speaker 4: The host nations are going to be in a very
18:56
Speaker 4: very competitive group.
18:57
Speaker 1: Regardless, team USA is in Group D with Paraguay, Australia,
19:02
Speaker 1: Turkey is How does that draw lineup for the American squad.
19:08
Speaker 4: I think it's been a kind row. Of course, they
19:11
Speaker 4: have been lined up with none of the heavyweights, so
19:14
Speaker 4: none of the teams that can actually think about winning
19:19
Speaker 4: the tournament. Paraguay and a particularly stingy team. They scored
19:25
Speaker 4: fourteen times in qualifiers onlicon cided ten the Kings of
19:28
Speaker 4: one nil nil nil New Zealand, one of the first
19:31
Speaker 4: teams to qualify for this World Cup question mark. Would
19:35
Speaker 4: they actually be there if that was a smaller World Cup?
19:37
Speaker 4: I don't think so. And Turkey by the playoff, good
19:40
Speaker 4: talent upfront, young, vibrant, Kennanildits are the Gulare, et cetera.
19:45
Speaker 4: They are probably us biggest threats in there for the
19:50
Speaker 4: US team. I think this is this is an exciting time,
19:55
Speaker 4: but also full of question mark. I think this time
19:58
Speaker 4: is harder than in nineteen ninety four. There is definitely
20:01
Speaker 4: more expectation this time around. Maybe soccer hasn't grown in
20:06
Speaker 4: the last twenty two years as American people expected it
20:09
Speaker 4: would grow. But certainly this is a very good talent pool.
20:15
Speaker 4: They are sixteen in the world ranked by FIFA. Their
20:17
Speaker 4: aspiration is to become a top ten team, and they
20:20
Speaker 4: have a world class manager, ima Rizio Pochettino, Marizio Pochettino,
20:25
Speaker 4: who has done a good job so far with the US. However,
20:30
Speaker 4: it is a squad that perhaps lacks a star player
20:34
Speaker 4: as the same Pochettinos said, he said, we don't have
20:38
Speaker 4: as somebody in the top hundred of the world, and
20:41
Speaker 4: I think that's true. I mean, it's been a true
20:42
Speaker 4: reflection on what the quality of the US team is.
20:45
Speaker 4: But you know, the core team of twenty twenty two
20:48
Speaker 4: is still there. You got two players with the experience
20:51
Speaker 4: in the Premier League, the center backs especially, I think
20:55
Speaker 4: they're pretty good. Anthony Robbinson, Chris Richards, the team ram
20:59
Speaker 4: the captain to play for Fullham, Tyler Adams of Bornemo
21:02
Speaker 4: to setting right in front of them, and then you know,
21:05
Speaker 4: of course up front of there is also some quality.
21:08
Speaker 4: Big question mark is Christian police, he is ever going
21:10
Speaker 4: to score well, he needs scored last time to be
21:12
Speaker 4: fair again, Segal, So is he.
21:14
Speaker 1: Had a top one hundred player in the world.
21:17
Speaker 4: He is in the top one hundred. That's that's that's easy,
21:21
Speaker 4: is it?
21:23
Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm asking. I'm not sure.
21:26
Speaker 4: I'm sure.
21:27
Speaker 5: Is just a side he's hyped up on the other
21:29
Speaker 5: side of the world. But he hasn't scored a sink.
21:33
Speaker 5: I think he's a very good player. He has had
21:36
Speaker 5: a bad year in twenty twenty six. He hasn't scored
21:38
Speaker 5: a single goal for a Similian and scored one against
21:41
Speaker 5: a goal for the US national team.
21:43
Speaker 4: He has a tough fear. I think not all of
21:46
Speaker 4: his fault because I think a Milan he was playing
21:48
Speaker 4: out of his position, he was playing in a team
21:51
Speaker 4: that didn't like to have the ball match, a lot
21:54
Speaker 4: of hinjuries on him. I think if the US are
21:57
Speaker 4: going to have a successful campaign, he injures on him
21:59
Speaker 4: and he's talk are going to rise. But overall for
22:02
Speaker 4: the US, this is an opportunity, of course, so to
22:05
Speaker 4: demonstrate they can dominate, they can impose the style, and
22:10
Speaker 4: they are a tournament team after all, you know. But
22:13
Speaker 4: the question marks are regarded, how they're going to approach
22:16
Speaker 4: the tournament, how they going to try to attack, how
22:18
Speaker 4: they going to try impose the stuff They're going to
22:19
Speaker 4: instead sit in a medium block. So I think this
22:22
Speaker 4: is going to be very very interesting. Still, Pojettino probably
22:25
Speaker 4: doesn't quite know what his best formation is, so yeah,
22:28
Speaker 4: plenty plenty to look at that as well.
22:31
Speaker 2: Branded for Brandon for one million dollars, name five players
22:34
Speaker 2: in the World Cup.
22:35
Speaker 1: In the in the entire World Cup. I think I
22:37
Speaker 1: could do that.
22:38
Speaker 2: For twelve twelve forty eight.
22:42
Speaker 1: Okay, I was tigned to get stucky seven hours.
22:46
Speaker 2: But circling back to group, the Dutch are the odds
22:50
Speaker 2: on favorite at draftings minus one twenty five Japan plus
22:54
Speaker 2: two seventy five to win the group, Sweden plus four
22:56
Speaker 2: fifty Tunisia twelve to one, or the Dutch deserves to
23:00
Speaker 2: be the odds on favor Is there any value on Japan,
23:04
Speaker 2: Sweden or even Tunisia in what you consider your group
23:07
Speaker 2: of death?
23:08
Speaker 1: Now?
23:09
Speaker 4: I think the Dutch deserves to be to be the
23:11
Speaker 4: favorites because this is a team that has got strengths
23:13
Speaker 4: in every single department from the forwards, you know, the
23:17
Speaker 4: likes of Codegakpo, Donil Mall and these are all seasoned
23:21
Speaker 4: professionals that ap played plenty of seasons in the top
23:24
Speaker 4: leagues in Europe. Then you go through the midfields, the
23:27
Speaker 4: likes of Frankie the Young for example, as well as
23:30
Speaker 4: others that are players that used to play really at
23:34
Speaker 4: the very top of beyond domestic league. And then the
23:37
Speaker 4: defense there is plenty of experience. One of them all
23:41
Speaker 4: Virgil van Dyke. Maybe it didn't have the greatest season
23:43
Speaker 4: of all and Liverpool, but still a leader and still
23:46
Speaker 4: somebody with a lot of experience. It is a team
23:48
Speaker 4: that can be pragmatic, the Dutch that can be flamboyant.
23:51
Speaker 4: I think we get a little we'll get a little
23:53
Speaker 4: bit of both with them. It's quite matured. I don't
23:56
Speaker 4: think you will see and probably the flare of the
23:58
Speaker 4: past years. But all so, I think you will probably
24:01
Speaker 4: not see the craziness that sometimes defined some of their
24:05
Speaker 4: very famous failures. So I think, yeah, there is a
24:07
Speaker 4: lot of value in that. And the other very interesting
24:11
Speaker 4: will be Japan, as I said, is a team that
24:13
Speaker 4: is with the same manager for the last eight years, Mariasu.
24:17
Speaker 4: They have players who play all of them play in Europe,
24:20
Speaker 4: which hasn't happened before. They are a team that have
24:23
Speaker 4: got a precise style apply they can control possession. Of
24:26
Speaker 4: course they will be quick on the counter. Recently they
24:29
Speaker 4: beat England at Wembley, which was the first time ever
24:32
Speaker 4: that it happened. The beat Scotland away as well last
24:36
Speaker 4: year the bit Brazil. But these are all friendlies after all.
24:39
Speaker 4: We need to see of course when it matters. The
24:42
Speaker 4: probably problem with Japan is that the best player, Caromitoma,
24:45
Speaker 4: is injured, so it's not going to come to the
24:47
Speaker 4: World Cup, and they don't have an out and out striker,
24:50
Speaker 4: a twenty gold per season striker, which could be a
24:53
Speaker 4: problem against the likes of Tunisia who like to see
24:57
Speaker 4: deep and defend. But you know, yes, think I think
25:00
Speaker 4: all three of them, at least Netherlands, Japan, Sweden should
25:04
Speaker 4: be able to qualify and Tunisia don't think they got
25:06
Speaker 4: enough firepower. Well they probably start oppositions from scoring chances,
25:11
Speaker 4: but I don't think they got enough firepower to hurt them.
25:14
Speaker 2: Got it. Now, someone's looking for a potential long shot,
25:17
Speaker 2: maybe not necessarily win the World Cup, but maybe to
25:21
Speaker 2: get to the quarterfinals or get to the final sixteen.
25:24
Speaker 2: Is there a team you know under the radar, team
25:28
Speaker 2: that might be a little underrated, that could make a
25:30
Speaker 2: surprise run in the field.
25:32
Speaker 4: If you look at the odds, the two African teams
25:35
Speaker 4: that competed in the these years, Senegal and Morocco, they
25:40
Speaker 4: are priced extremely high by the bookmakers. I think this
25:46
Speaker 4: is a biased after all, and I think these anomally
25:52
Speaker 4: because probably African teams are not regarded of the same quality.
25:58
Speaker 4: Although in the last World Cup Morocco made it to
26:01
Speaker 4: the semi finals and deservedly so. The quality of African
26:05
Speaker 4: football has increased massively. The players who play for these
26:10
Speaker 4: two teams Senegal and Morocco also play most of them
26:13
Speaker 4: in Europe. And then, just to mention a few names,
26:16
Speaker 4: Morocco got the best right back in the world, Armi,
26:19
Speaker 4: twice winner of the Champions League. Senegal can still count
26:24
Speaker 4: on the likes of Sadiomane is Maai Lasar, who plays
26:26
Speaker 4: for Crystal Palace won the Conference League. Kalidu Kuli Valley
26:30
Speaker 4: used to be one of the best center backs in
26:31
Speaker 4: the world as well, and they are very very well organized.
26:35
Speaker 4: Sometimes with African teams we associate the image with chaos
26:39
Speaker 4: with on and off the pitch issues with managers sacking
26:45
Speaker 4: with sorry, with teams sucking the managers midway through the tournament.
26:48
Speaker 4: Yes it has happened before, but you know, at this
26:51
Speaker 4: stage Morocco and Senegal could be really even with a
26:56
Speaker 4: good chance to make it to the quarter final. Once again,
27:00
Speaker 4: the only caveat is that Morocco are in the group
27:02
Speaker 4: with Brazil, therefore are projected to finish second, and Senegal
27:06
Speaker 4: are in a tough group with Norway, France an i Raq,
27:09
Speaker 4: hence they are projected to finish third. That's why it's
27:12
Speaker 4: so hard perhaps to predict a clear pathway. But if
27:15
Speaker 4: that was a more traditional World Cup with a more
27:19
Speaker 4: clear bracket, I would say, yeah, Moroccans and gal probably
27:22
Speaker 4: chewing for the quarter finals.
27:25
Speaker 2: No love for Cape Cape Bird that astually the first
27:28
Speaker 2: time they qualified, right, Yes.
27:30
Speaker 4: They adabutants. They are evidence. So it's Kurasao and these
27:34
Speaker 4: are great stories. Of course, Cape Verdi is an interesting
27:38
Speaker 4: one because they go one of the most experienced managers
27:41
Speaker 4: in the world, the cavocat seventy eight years old Dutch
27:45
Speaker 4: and the vast majority of their players play in the
27:48
Speaker 4: Dutch League. They simply don't play for top sides. But
27:53
Speaker 4: these are no amateurs of course, and they have qualified deservedly.
27:57
Speaker 4: With Kurasao, small less nation to qualify for the World Cup.
28:01
Speaker 4: I think this is more of a fairy tale and
28:04
Speaker 4: the debut is quite tough for them because they play
28:06
Speaker 4: Germany and we do know the Germans don't quite stop
28:09
Speaker 4: after they score five or six, so that could be
28:12
Speaker 4: a route. But yeah, we just wait and see. Because
28:15
Speaker 4: Kurrasau recently played against Scotland in a friendly, they only
28:18
Speaker 4: lost for one, and yeah, they received a few lots
28:22
Speaker 4: of praises for the way they were set up. I
28:23
Speaker 4: think the for one Indian floodened the Scottish a little bit,
28:26
Speaker 4: so again they are not there by chance, but yeah,
28:30
Speaker 4: I'm totally intrigued to see how they do in the
28:32
Speaker 4: first match.
28:34
Speaker 1: Do you tend to favor teams that have been together
28:37
Speaker 1: for years, the experience in a World Cup setting, the
28:41
Speaker 1: unity of playing together over several iterations of this, and
28:45
Speaker 1: then the chemistry that goes along with it. Is there
28:47
Speaker 1: something to that or should we just be looking at
28:50
Speaker 1: talent on top of talent like the French squad, Spain, Argentina,
28:55
Speaker 1: These teams that are just loaded or is there more
28:57
Speaker 1: value in the teams that have been together longer.
29:00
Speaker 4: Well, funnily enough, those two teams that you mentioned, Spain
29:02
Speaker 4: Argentina I've been together for quite a while, so I
29:06
Speaker 4: think in that case both scenarios apply. Spain, I've been
29:10
Speaker 4: with the same manager, Louis de la tent since twenty
29:14
Speaker 4: twenty two, and it's been extremely successful. It took them
29:17
Speaker 4: to a eurofinal which they won. Scalonim, the manager of
29:21
Speaker 4: Argentina has been there for the last seven years, if
29:24
Speaker 4: I'm not wrong, and it took them, of course, to
29:26
Speaker 4: a World Cup final which they won, to a copp
29:28
Speaker 4: America final which they one, and establishing an extremely long
29:33
Speaker 4: winning a streakt I think there are thirty one games,
29:37
Speaker 4: some beaten at some point. So again, those two elements
29:41
Speaker 4: are absolutely They're having a core group of players that
29:45
Speaker 4: know each other, with the manager and with the precisest
29:47
Speaker 4: style of play can only help. You cannot improvise in
29:51
Speaker 4: a month of World Cup, although there's been of course
29:54
Speaker 4: the qualifiers. But when it comes to Spain and Argentina,
29:58
Speaker 4: they are not my favorites. Simple as that they're not
30:00
Speaker 4: my favorite, then not my pick for the World Cup.
30:02
Speaker 4: For two reasons. Mostly first of all, because favorites hardly
30:06
Speaker 4: win the World Cup. They only done it in three
30:09
Speaker 4: occasions seventy four, nineteen ninety four, twenty fourteen, when the
30:13
Speaker 4: book is favorites won the World Cup, and in this
30:16
Speaker 4: case the book is favorites are Spain. And also back
30:21
Speaker 4: to back winners are almost impossible. Only Italy it once
30:24
Speaker 4: thirty four, thirty eight and then Brazil fifty eight and
30:27
Speaker 4: sixty two. But again the back but to back favorites argument,
30:31
Speaker 4: I think is stronger because I don't think these Argentina
30:33
Speaker 4: side is as good as it was four years ago.
30:36
Speaker 4: They lack a little bit of pace, a little bit
30:39
Speaker 4: of peda front. Are they hungry enough? Are they eager enough?
30:43
Speaker 4: There is the big question mark looming over Lionel Messi
30:46
Speaker 4: is going to be thirty nine during the World Cup.
30:49
Speaker 4: How much can you play? Would they be better off
30:52
Speaker 4: playing someone a little bit more pacey up front? The
30:54
Speaker 4: likes of Nicopass, the likes of the Simeon Laudo or
30:58
Speaker 4: Martinez with Julian Alvaretz and the center backs at Argentina,
31:02
Speaker 4: I think there a week spot, the likes of Ottomandi,
31:06
Speaker 4: for example, Romero coming out of an injury. When it
31:09
Speaker 4: comes to Spain, I think they are excellent. They're the
31:12
Speaker 4: best team in Europe for sure, probably the best team
31:15
Speaker 4: in the world, loaded with talent. The only question mark
31:18
Speaker 4: have got is as they got a plum b I
31:21
Speaker 4: mean the electric key possession, the elect to be intense,
31:23
Speaker 4: but how are they going to react against a different
31:26
Speaker 4: style of play playing against teams from outside of Europe,
31:30
Speaker 4: which then might not be used to and ultimately they
31:33
Speaker 4: might stifle them. The lineup, the starting lineup for Spine
31:37
Speaker 4: is great, the starting eleven probably the best player in
31:40
Speaker 4: the world well with all probably in the Laminiam at
31:43
Speaker 4: the moment. But what happens if him or Nico Williams
31:47
Speaker 4: are not available or not fully fit. I'm not sure
31:50
Speaker 4: they can replace them with players of the same quality.
31:53
Speaker 4: And in such a long word Cup this could be
31:56
Speaker 4: a concern from a bat in point of view. The
31:59
Speaker 4: odds for our Gentina and Spain to win it are
32:02
Speaker 4: disproportionately low compared to the realistic probability that we have
32:08
Speaker 4: analyzed through our models, so I think there you would
32:12
Speaker 4: take a massive gamble, which I think does really bring
32:15
Speaker 4: a lot of value.
32:16
Speaker 1: I love the stat of the favorite that doesn't win
32:20
Speaker 1: in the World Cup. But the other end of that
32:22
Speaker 1: spectrum is that long shots don't win either, So no,
32:27
Speaker 1: it's somewhere in the middle. Is there someone in that
32:30
Speaker 1: ten to one to fifteen to one range that you
32:33
Speaker 1: would take a shot on to win this tournament?
32:36
Speaker 4: Yes, favorites don't win, Buto's Bakistan probably not gonna win it.
32:42
Speaker 4: Let's put it that way. So you have to look
32:45
Speaker 4: at the best of the rest, and the best of
32:47
Speaker 4: the rest in the best of the reds are very
32:49
Speaker 4: good odds. There is the FIFA R number one ranked
32:53
Speaker 4: team in the world, which is not too shabby. France, now, friends,
32:57
Speaker 4: are at the moment the second biggest favorites in the
33:00
Speaker 4: for the bookmakers to win it. But according to our
33:03
Speaker 4: statistical model, Betsy, they are the big favorites to win
33:07
Speaker 4: it with the over plus two percent chance differential in
33:11
Speaker 4: your favor Now, why is that we have analyzed the
33:15
Speaker 4: squad value in terms of depth, in terms of quality,
33:18
Speaker 4: France have got the best squad overall, the best roster overall,
33:22
Speaker 4: the seven strikers let alone. But from the likes of
33:26
Speaker 4: Dumbelair to desire due Marcus Duram and I'm sure I'm
33:31
Speaker 4: forgetting someone else. They are all interchangeable. Anyone you play
33:34
Speaker 4: in that front three, the result is probably gonna be
33:37
Speaker 4: the same. They're gonna be intense, They're gonna score goals,
33:40
Speaker 4: They're gonna attack, They're gonna put you under enormous pressure.
33:43
Speaker 4: They may they played back to back finals. Of course,
33:47
Speaker 4: they will try to play three finals in a row,
33:50
Speaker 4: only becoming the third team in history to do that
33:52
Speaker 4: after Brazil and Germany did. De Champ the manager is
33:56
Speaker 4: very pragmatic. It's been there for almost twelve years years.
34:00
Speaker 4: I guess of thirteen years. This is going to be
34:02
Speaker 4: his last tournament. He is a tournament manager. He knows
34:05
Speaker 4: how to manage this sort of competition. They've been good
34:09
Speaker 4: in qualifiers, scoring two point sixty seven goals per game.
34:14
Speaker 4: They do not concede many goals. Also because their center
34:17
Speaker 4: backs are extremely strong, from Saliba to Upamachan or Kunte.
34:22
Speaker 4: The goalkeeper Mike Manyan extremely solid. Have they got a
34:26
Speaker 4: weak spot? Yeah, of course they have. I mean they're
34:28
Speaker 4: not perfect, probably a full backs. They're not as good
34:30
Speaker 4: as the other teams. But if they got the ball,
34:33
Speaker 4: the other teams won't have it. And if they attack
34:36
Speaker 4: the other teams and not be able to attack them.
34:38
Speaker 4: So unless something goes extremely wrong from them, this is
34:42
Speaker 4: a team that for me is poised to reach the
34:45
Speaker 4: semi final at least and then of course it opens up.
34:48
Speaker 4: So yes, the price is decent. I think you're looking
34:51
Speaker 4: at plast six hundred give a take. So I think
34:54
Speaker 4: for France it's a very good price considering the statistical chances.
34:59
Speaker 4: If you want to go on the list of other
35:01
Speaker 4: potential winners and other potential long shots, well then you
35:04
Speaker 4: have to consider Portugal, who are given around a nine
35:08
Speaker 4: percent imply probability of winning the tournament based on the odds,
35:13
Speaker 4: and our statistical model Betsy gives a nine point three
35:16
Speaker 4: So again you got a zero point three chance in
35:18
Speaker 4: your favor there. And why Portugal They got the best
35:21
Speaker 4: midfield of the of the of the tournament with the
35:25
Speaker 4: Sia Fernandez. They got a certain Ronaldo who's always going
35:29
Speaker 4: to score them goals. They are accomplished, they know how
35:32
Speaker 4: to navigate tournaments as well, and finally they don't just
35:36
Speaker 4: seem to have a lot of flair and no consistency
35:38
Speaker 4: is a very very good balance. So if you're looking
35:41
Speaker 4: for a long shot. Portugal currently the book is six
35:44
Speaker 4: or seven favorites is probably the way to go. If
35:47
Speaker 4: you want to be a slightly more certain I think
35:49
Speaker 4: I would say go for friends.
35:52
Speaker 2: I have a Philo question for you the World Cup
35:55
Speaker 2: is you know it's a unique event, a unique betting event,
36:00
Speaker 2: and you obviously are going to go into the tournament
36:02
Speaker 2: with your thoughts and your ratings for certain teams. And
36:05
Speaker 2: this might be more applicable to teams that haven't been
36:08
Speaker 2: together as long as others. But when you see when
36:13
Speaker 2: you see these teams play now, the sample size is
36:17
Speaker 2: going to be great, how aggressive are you at updating?
36:21
Speaker 2: Okay I actually was, I actually thought this team was
36:25
Speaker 2: way better or this team I need to downgrade them
36:27
Speaker 2: a bunch or do you try to stick to your
36:29
Speaker 2: priors going in knowing that the sample size is going
36:31
Speaker 2: to be great? So like, how do you balance that
36:33
Speaker 2: as far as like what you see versus what you
36:36
Speaker 2: thought going into the tournament and then how you adjust
36:39
Speaker 2: that match to match.
36:41
Speaker 4: Well, I think one game a much day one is
36:43
Speaker 4: not going to be a good sample size unless something
36:45
Speaker 4: catastrophic happens, so there is an injury to a key
36:49
Speaker 4: player or the team suffers a shock defeat, but even
36:52
Speaker 4: then I think the value of the team does really change.
36:58
Speaker 4: In twenty ten, Spain lost their very first game in
37:02
Speaker 4: the World Cup against Switzerland. If I not wrong, they
37:05
Speaker 4: wont the World Cup anyway. In nineteen ninety four, Italy
37:08
Speaker 4: lost against the Republic of Ireland and when to reach
37:11
Speaker 4: the finals. So the first game doesn't really tell the
37:15
Speaker 4: whole story. However, when you go second or first game
37:18
Speaker 4: into the tournament, you can start seeing the team chemistry.
37:22
Speaker 4: You can start see if a player looks fatig or
37:25
Speaker 4: if on the other side he is in top form,
37:28
Speaker 4: and obviously then's down to the manager to make the
37:31
Speaker 4: shrewd decisions. So yes, adjustment during the tournaments are needed, because,
37:36
Speaker 4: as we said at the top of the show, this
37:38
Speaker 4: is a tournament that they're gonna be surprises. There are
37:41
Speaker 4: more teams than ever, and it is more complicated the
37:44
Speaker 4: brackets than ever, so you need to adjust your calculations
37:47
Speaker 4: there because then the bracket can open up or close
37:50
Speaker 4: down for certain teams depending on where do they fall.
37:54
Speaker 4: But overall, the squad quality is not gonna change too much. Remember,
38:00
Speaker 4: World Cup knockout games are usually cag These are in
38:05
Speaker 4: the group stages are something. They knockouts are gonna become
38:10
Speaker 4: much more tactical. They're gonna become a much more tense
38:15
Speaker 4: and that's where you will look at who's got the
38:19
Speaker 4: best managers, who's got the players who are gonna score
38:23
Speaker 4: in situations when others will not normally score. I mean
38:26
Speaker 4: XG expected goals are and in exact science they are fascinating,
38:33
Speaker 4: but the XG tell only part of the story. The
38:37
Speaker 4: great players scores where others couldn't score, and that's why
38:41
Speaker 4: they convert the zero point in two XG into a
38:44
Speaker 4: fantastic goal. So sometimes you need to also to stick
38:47
Speaker 4: with your gut feeling as well and think that team
38:50
Speaker 4: has got the players to see them through and to progress.
38:53
Speaker 4: But again, monitor it, watch it, and if you are
38:56
Speaker 4: a better, if you're a somebody who doesn't better, I
38:58
Speaker 4: would say, don't bat too much with your heart as well.
39:02
Speaker 4: Try to use the logic and try to bed in
39:05
Speaker 4: into the tournament, to go in with without bias as well.
39:09
Speaker 4: Maybe you don't just pick a winner after much Day two,
39:12
Speaker 4: much day one match they two. Just wait a little
39:14
Speaker 4: bit and you'll have much much better chances.
39:17
Speaker 2: Maybe, Yeah, there's definitely some art and science to end
39:20
Speaker 2: the CAAP in the World Cup. Before we get to
39:22
Speaker 2: our best bets and our betting secment, we do have
39:24
Speaker 2: to I assume you're going to pick France France as
39:27
Speaker 2: your winner. Who do you have them beating or maybe
39:30
Speaker 2: it is in France.
39:31
Speaker 4: Well, my winner would be Friends. Based based on the odds,
39:34
Speaker 4: I think the odds are fairly good and they do
39:38
Speaker 4: represent still a good value. As I said, potentially a
39:41
Speaker 4: final with Portugal, of course depends how them the bracket
39:47
Speaker 4: open up, and yeah, potential surprises. Morocco send a goal.
39:52
Speaker 4: Do not discard the other South American teams. Ecuador only
39:56
Speaker 4: considered five goals in the qualifiers. In South America they're
39:59
Speaker 4: gonna be hard. Bit Paraguay we mentioned, Japan could be
40:03
Speaker 4: the big dark course and in Germany they are a
40:06
Speaker 4: long shot as well. A plus one hundred plus thousand
40:10
Speaker 4: sorry in the in the outright winner market, a young
40:13
Speaker 4: team with an aggressive style of ply probably two of
40:16
Speaker 4: the best young players playing midfield, the Floridan Birds Jamal Musilla.
40:20
Speaker 4: I wonder if this is a tournament too soon for them.
40:24
Speaker 4: They still don't have an out and out striker and
40:27
Speaker 4: then a quick word on England in terms of progressions,
40:32
Speaker 4: they are the best team because they've done semi final, final,
40:35
Speaker 4: quarter final final of Euros and World Cup. So you
40:39
Speaker 4: do think that if the progression continues, this finally could
40:43
Speaker 4: be the rears and to end sixty years of verse
40:46
Speaker 4: after nineteen sixty six. This time around the trying with
40:50
Speaker 4: a foreign manager, as they've done it before, and this
40:53
Speaker 4: time is a German. Thomas Tukel is going to be shrewd.
40:56
Speaker 4: He won't mind being unpopular and take the difficult decision.
41:01
Speaker 4: It is a team that doesn't quite have the style
41:04
Speaker 4: of play of others, but they got the pace, they
41:06
Speaker 4: got the physicality. They could be in with a shout
41:10
Speaker 4: for a potential place in the final if the starting
41:15
Speaker 4: eleven stage fit. If Hurricane, who scored sixty one goals
41:18
Speaker 4: this season with Bayern Munich, is in top form, I
41:21
Speaker 4: think again it is a team that you don't want
41:24
Speaker 4: to discuss.
41:26
Speaker 1: It seems like we've touched on almost every team there
41:28
Speaker 1: at the time. The only one that I haven't heard
41:31
Speaker 1: unless I missed it was Brazil. Is that a team
41:34
Speaker 1: that they're eight to one, so the odds makers seem
41:37
Speaker 1: to like them quite a bit, do you.
41:40
Speaker 4: Yes, and no. I do like them because they have
41:45
Speaker 4: an Italian coach, Carlonncelotti, which I think in terms of
41:48
Speaker 4: the coaching experience and coaching pedigree, is the best of
41:53
Speaker 4: the lot. The World Cup, multiple winner of Champions League
41:56
Speaker 4: of course, and used to manage big talents at Real Madrid.
42:01
Speaker 4: So I do like them, and I think this is
42:03
Speaker 4: a Brazil that can be exciting if they can balance
42:08
Speaker 4: the flare up front of the players like ven Issues
42:12
Speaker 4: and Richardson and Matteoscuna, but also the balance and the
42:20
Speaker 4: ad defensive attitude. They're gonna play with a fourtunity reformation,
42:24
Speaker 4: so they're always gonna try to be dominate and dictate possession.
42:30
Speaker 4: They do have a very strong center back pairings in
42:32
Speaker 4: Marquinez and Gabriel Maguaianas, which we just saw in the
42:36
Speaker 4: in the Champions League final, which we're gonna give them stability.
42:39
Speaker 4: But it's about finding the right balance really between defense
42:43
Speaker 4: and attack, and if Angelotte can manage to do that
42:46
Speaker 4: and then give freedom to his attackers to express themselves,
42:50
Speaker 4: Brazil can go far. The problem with Brazil I got
42:53
Speaker 4: is that the odds are too short and our model
42:58
Speaker 4: Betsy doesn't give them a lot of chances really winning
43:01
Speaker 4: the World Cup, so they do look a little bit risky.
43:05
Speaker 4: They are not favorites by any stretch of imagination, but
43:09
Speaker 4: I think what yeah, shy away from them purely from
43:14
Speaker 4: a statistical point of view.
43:17
Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Our World Cup best Bets, presented
43:20
Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. Danielle, you are our guests today, so
43:25
Speaker 1: we'll start with you. It's your World Cup best bet
43:27
Speaker 1: can be on anything, can be on. An outright winner,
43:30
Speaker 1: a stage of elimination, a group winner.
43:32
Speaker 4: What do you got, Well, let's go back to the US.
43:35
Speaker 4: One of the three hosts nations. My best bet it's
43:39
Speaker 4: for the US to have a tournament, but not an
43:43
Speaker 4: extraordinary one. So a stage of elimination round of sixteen,
43:48
Speaker 4: which is around plus two twenty. That is an implied
43:52
Speaker 4: probability of thirty one percent based on the odds. Now,
43:56
Speaker 4: if you look at our statistical model, Betsy, the stage
43:59
Speaker 4: of elimination round of sixteen, it's around twenty six percent,
44:03
Speaker 4: so there is a five percent discrepancy. Is actually higher
44:06
Speaker 4: for round of thirty two. But let's do the math.
44:09
Speaker 4: So US in Group D, Paraguay, New Zealand and Turkey.
44:12
Speaker 4: Of course they're gonna play all those games at home.
44:16
Speaker 4: We mentioned host nations have at zero point fifty seven
44:19
Speaker 4: goal advantage, so they have a quite good advantage there.
44:23
Speaker 4: If they win Group D, they will play the US
44:26
Speaker 4: one of the eight best third placed teams, which is
44:31
Speaker 4: random selection. If they do win Group D in a
44:35
Speaker 4: round of sixteen, they will likely play against Belgium, who's
44:39
Speaker 4: placed in Group G and is likely to win the group. However,
44:43
Speaker 4: if they finished second in Group D, they will play
44:46
Speaker 4: the second team from Group G, which contains Belgium, so
44:48
Speaker 4: it could be Egypt, Iran New Zealand. So let's say
44:51
Speaker 4: it's going to be Egypt win that around the sixteen
44:54
Speaker 4: is a tie against Argentina, so you can tackle each
44:57
Speaker 4: other way. If they finish top, they play Belgium in
44:59
Speaker 4: the fish second ROUNDO sixteen, the player Argentina. They don't
45:03
Speaker 4: look favorite really to win that. US odds chances statistical
45:08
Speaker 4: chances to win in the group are around forty two,
45:12
Speaker 4: so I think it is a shot ward taking. They
45:15
Speaker 4: are projected to win in the group and have a
45:17
Speaker 4: slightly easier path into the roundom sixteen, which I think
45:22
Speaker 4: were Eventually they're gonna get found out. By the way,
45:25
Speaker 4: if it's Belgium, they lost five two in a recent friendly,
45:27
Speaker 4: they go, they go pull apart, and I think that's
45:30
Speaker 4: really where the cracks start to open. So I think, yeah,
45:32
Speaker 4: that could be avert bit.
45:33
Speaker 1: All right, we've got a stage of elimination round of
45:37
Speaker 1: sixteen from daniel A stucky What about you?
45:41
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let daniel I pick mine between two? What
45:45
Speaker 2: do you what do you prefer? This is gonna be
45:46
Speaker 2: a bet to make the round of sixteen. The two
45:49
Speaker 2: that I like or was looking at were Turkey and Ecuador.
45:55
Speaker 2: Of the two, which do you prefer? Wrote around the
45:59
Speaker 2: same price a round plus one fifty.
46:01
Speaker 4: I would say Ecuador because of their defensive solidity. They
46:06
Speaker 4: have great defense defenders from Pacho psg to Moises Causedo
46:13
Speaker 4: plays as a whole the midfielder for Chelsea. And I
46:16
Speaker 4: mean they only conceded five goals in the qualifiers in
46:18
Speaker 4: a Solomon qualifier. We already said that. And you have
46:21
Speaker 4: to play four times, twice against Argentina and twice against Brazil.
46:25
Speaker 4: So it's quite something. Really, Turkey, they look more flamboyant,
46:29
Speaker 4: but I think they look quite look the finished article
46:32
Speaker 4: in terms of balance. I would love for Turkey to
46:34
Speaker 4: go far. Of course they got an Italian manager. I
46:36
Speaker 4: means and some Montela, but I think it's going to.
46:38
Speaker 2: Be a guator Ecuador. I visited Ecuador a couple of
46:41
Speaker 2: years ago. I loved the people there. Met a couple
46:43
Speaker 2: that are die hard fans, so I love that. That's
46:46
Speaker 2: what I'm wrong with. The tries plus one fifty to
46:50
Speaker 2: make the round of sixteen.
46:52
Speaker 1: Round of sixteen for Ecuador. You can actually get that
46:55
Speaker 1: a plus two fifty over undraft kings all price discovery
47:00
Speaker 1: for you, I'm gonna go with. I was like, Ecuador
47:05
Speaker 1: round of sixteen or no, I'm sorry, I'm on stage
47:08
Speaker 1: of elimination. My bad. Yeah, you're right, Yeah, I was
47:12
Speaker 1: trying to get you a better number, but no, it
47:14
Speaker 1: does not exist. All right, let's go to uh I'm
47:16
Speaker 1: gonna go to Colombia to win Group K at plus
47:19
Speaker 1: two point forty. It's basically between them and Portugal. I
47:23
Speaker 1: want to get Danielle's thoughts on this, see if this
47:25
Speaker 1: is a bet that I should actually place here. Portugal
47:28
Speaker 1: has a history of starting slow in the tournament. Rinaldo
47:31
Speaker 1: not getting any younger here. One of the five players
47:33
Speaker 1: I can name Stuckey, and based on everything I read,
47:37
Speaker 1: Columbia comes in with a world of momentum. I just
47:40
Speaker 1: can't see Congo or Uzbekistan putting up much of a fight.
47:44
Speaker 1: So all you have to do is beat Portugal. I
47:46
Speaker 1: know it's not the easiest thing in the world to do,
47:48
Speaker 1: but I like Colombia with some momentum to win Group K,
47:51
Speaker 1: and Portugal still moves on. In this scenario, it's not
47:54
Speaker 1: like I have them getting eliminated.
47:56
Speaker 4: It's possible of a shout. I mean, Portugal are way
48:02
Speaker 4: way favorites to win the group, but sometimes you need
48:05
Speaker 4: to go against the grain. I can't see Colombia outscoring
48:11
Speaker 4: Portugal if I'm honest. I think in Portugal are gonna
48:14
Speaker 4: keep the ball and move the ball so well and
48:17
Speaker 4: start Colombia possession. But Columbia is gonna be comfortable with that.
48:20
Speaker 4: After all, you know, they are not a team that
48:22
Speaker 4: necessarily needs to impose their style, that'd be happy to
48:25
Speaker 4: sit back and hit you on the counter. So it
48:27
Speaker 4: could be a draw. And then it goes down to
48:29
Speaker 4: goal difference. How many goals can they score against Congo?
48:33
Speaker 4: How many goals Portugal can score against Congo's Pakistan and
48:36
Speaker 4: so on and so forth. So again, I think it
48:38
Speaker 4: would be a touch and go one. But yeah, it
48:41
Speaker 4: hinges on Colombia not losing against Portugal.
48:44
Speaker 2: Basically, he's your favorite player on the Columbia nationals.
48:47
Speaker 1: Well, you know, I mean to nail it down to
48:48
Speaker 1: one stuck, you would be exactly. We have too tough,
48:52
Speaker 1: too tough. I don't know if I have time for that,
48:54
Speaker 1: but I mean, that's that separate episode Bonus Favorite, It's
49:00
Speaker 1: my Colombian breakdown. That is our best bet segment presented
49:04
Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. The Crown is Yours. Danielle Physickeela, you
49:08
Speaker 1: have been a phenomenal guest. Thanks for breaking down the
49:11
Speaker 1: world to gay.
49:11
Speaker 4: Thank you, guys. I really enjoy you. Enjoy the work cup.
49:14
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for us here on the Favorite special.
49:17
Speaker 1: Thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford gold stat
49:20
Speaker 1: sound Evan Abrams Larkin in the background as well. Keep
49:23
Speaker 1: up with all of the Favorites content right here on
49:25
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page or wherever you download your
49:28
Speaker 1: favorite podcasts. Our show has been presented by Draft Kings.
49:31
Speaker 1: The Crown is Yours.
49:35
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49:46
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