Latest / Closing Market Report / Aug 14 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260814 The August 14, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of agricultural commodity markets, crop progress, and weather forecasts. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo highlights that wheat and crude oil are currently leading the commodity markets, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply-demand fundamentals. Extension Agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes details the Illinois corn crop's progression through the critical grain fill stage, noting that while record yields are unlikely, the crop remains strong and stands to benefit from recent rains if followed by sunny, warm days. Finally, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass discusses the heavy rainfall and severe storms currently impacting the Eastern corn belt, warning that a rapidly developing El Niño could result in a wet fall harvest domestically and delay the start of the planting season in South America. 01:13 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com 08:17 Grain Fill, Overnite Temps, and Rainfall 14:07 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 14th day of August 2026. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo. He is at GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Extension field crops agronomist Giovanni Preza Fontes will join us to discuss grain fill, dent, rainfall, and higher overnight temperatures. They might be better than you think they are for the crop. We will then turn our attention to the weather forecast with Eric Snodgrass. He is with NutrienAgSolutions.com. We will do all of that on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at WILLAg.org. Right now, you can find our Commodity Week program and listen to it in its entirety, or you can search it out by name in your favorite podcast applications. If you are listening to us on our home station, you will hear all of that program in this hour. If not, many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend. 01:13 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Mike, thanks for being with us again. Mike Zuzolo: Great to be back with you, Todd. Well done on the Commodity Week this week. Todd Gleason: You, Jim McCormick, and company all did a fantastic job yesterday, alongside Ted Seifried. Folks can hear it coming up in just a few minutes on the Closing Market Report hour. Did anything strike you in the overnight or day trade today that we ought to start with? Mike Zuzolo: Given what we talked about on Commodity Week regarding the WASDE report and geopolitics, the question is what all this means. We have been able to make new monthly highs led by wheat, both hard red and soft red early Friday, and then corn at the Friday close. That is very important because it supports the idea that wheat and crude are still leaders in this market. The week between the WASDE report was like a yo-yo. Tuesday, we heard a ceasefire would be worked out between Russia and Ukraine to move grain through the Black Sea. That was thrown to pieces on Wednesday, leading to a sharp rally. We saw the exact same thing Thursday after the report, and the market fell hard. Friday, the rumor mill returned to trading supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical tensions. On a weekly and monthly basis, the price action was strong because the WASDE report was supportive. Todd Gleason: Do you suppose the leader in the grains and oilseeds is wheat, soybeans, or corn? Mike Zuzolo: Historically, wheat leads, and corn follows 30 to 45 days later. Wheat is the number one global export for Russia, and diesel is number two. This week supports that, as we saw bigger numbers from Argentina and Brazil in old crop corn. I have also heard about quality issues in Europe for wheat, which might provide more feed wheat to compete with corn. Despite global corn stocks-to-use ratios being at a five-year low, I still think wheat is the overall leader. 08:17 Grain Fill, Overnite Temps, and Rainfall Todd Gleason: What is the rainfall in the United States corn belt doing for grain fill at this time? Mike Zuzolo: It is not doing much in the Western corn belt right now, but it will do more in the next week or two if the models are correct. I have spoken to clients in Eastern Indiana who have been deluged with rain. It is more about the soybeans. The crop tour is coming, we have high pod counts, and there is potential to bring the yield up. The trade is getting into that mindset, as shown by the bean-corn ratio reaching a three-month low. I am not sure we can do much for corn yield in the next 30 days given the heat indices with lows of 80 to 82 degrees. It is exceptionally hot at night. Todd Gleason: What else have you been watching in the marketplace? Mike Zuzolo: The overarching negative feature moving forward is bond yields and commodity investor sentiment. Supplies for both corn and cattle are decreasing. It is a supply-led and weather-led market. Demand is holding because prices have not rallied significantly. It becomes a question of whether outside investors want to enter commodities later this year and early next year. Geopolitically, they should. Todd Gleason: How concerned are you that the Strait of Hormuz is closed today, considering the impact on shipping diesel fuel, phosphorus, nitrogen, and urea for the 2027 growing season? Mike Zuzolo: I recommended locking in fuel and diesel prices a couple of weeks ago. I also advised clients to lock in fertilizer prices after a recent break. High freight rates and insurance costs make commodities more expensive, reducing demand-side purchasing power. This suggests we will not see much of a price break in the cash market. Cash will likely hold a premium versus futures and fund trades. Todd Gleason: Thanks, Mike. Mike Zuzolo: Thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo is with GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Next week, crop scouts will fan out across the primary growing regions of the corn belt to determine objective yields. Those were not taken by USDA in the August crop production report, but they will be included in September. I asked Giovani Preza Fontes, Extension Agronomist at the University of Illinois, how much of the corn crop depends on grain fill and weather impacts. He noted that more than half of an ear’s weight is deposited after dent begins. Giovani Preza Fontes: In Illinois, the R5 grain filling stage takes 25 to 30 days depending on weather and the hybrid. As of August 10th, NASS reported 14% of corn denting for April and early May planted corn. Our planting date trial at the South Farm showed April 12th planted corn halfway through the R5 stage, indicated by the milk line. At that time, only 90% of total dry matter or kernel weight was determined, leaving two weeks for physiological maturity, dependent on weather and growing degree units. Todd Gleason: How do you assess the current condition of the Illinois corn crop? Giovani Preza Fontes: NASS estimated Illinois corn at 212 bushels per acre in August, down two bushels from the 2025 average. Drowned areas and later-planted crops suffered from wet conditions in June, affecting yield potential. I think 212 is a reasonable number, though estimates may change as harvest begins. I am optimistic, but it will likely not break the 217 yield record. Todd Gleason: What impact do higher overnight temperatures in the low to mid–70s have on yield, and is that offset by good rainfall? Giovani Preza Fontes: Temperatures in the 70s are acceptable, and rainfall will recharge soils in dry areas of northern and southern Illinois. The corn crop requires about a quarter of an inch of water per day during grain fill. Our central and northern Illinois soils should have enough moisture to finish the crop. Todd Gleason: Will the above-average August rainfall improve grain fill? Giovani Preza Fontes: August rainfall is welcome during grain fill, but we need a combination of soil moisture and sunny, warm days to maintain progress. Cooler, cloudier conditions lower the photosynthetic rate, impacting grain fill. Todd Gleason: Thanks for the information. Giovanni Preza Fontes is an Extension field crops agronomist at the University of Illinois. 14:07 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com Todd Gleason: Let us turn our attention to the weather forecast. Eric Snodgrass from NutrienAgSolutions is here. Hello Eric, thanks for joining us. Eric Snodgrass: Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: I am on the state fairgrounds, where the director’s lawn breakfast was canceled due to heavy rainfall. Springfield was dry all week, and now there is significant rain. Eric Snodgrass: We had multiple rounds of storms Thursday night and Friday morning in Mahomet and Champaign, picking up three and a half inches. Parts of northern Illinois and Indiana have received 15 to 16 inches of rain. We are starting to see crop damage from drowning and strong winds, including a tornado near Seymour earlier in the week. The Bermuda High has been pumping moisture into Missouri and Illinois, leaving Texas dry. Todd Gleason: Will the rain continue to be a problem? Eric Snodgrass: Yes, the pattern will continue. The hotter and drier Texas gets, the greater the risk for us. I expect more wet conditions through August. Due to the developing El Nino, I am concerned about a wet September, October, and November as well. Todd Gleason: Saturated soils going into fall could be an issue for harvest. Has your outlook changed on that over the past few weeks? Eric Snodgrass: No. Historically, strong El Ninos lower the likelihood of a dry fall. This moisture will come from an energized subtropical jet stream out of the Central Pacific, rather than Atlantic hurricanes. Todd Gleason: Regarding Iowa, it seems they received the exact amount of rain needed for grain fill. Eric Snodgrass: Yes, storms went through Iowa with some damage, but rainfall totals were not as high as in Illinois or Indiana. We have likely lost crops in parts of Indiana due to heavy rain, despite it looking good up to this point. Todd Gleason: What impact could this El Nino have on South America, specifically regarding planting in Mato Grosso on September 1st? Eric Snodgrass: I believe they will have to wait. This El Nino is growing fast and historically makes the center-west area drier while keeping southern Brazil wetter. They are currently seeing flooding in southern Brazil. The primary concern is delayed planting, which can compress their crop calendar and impact US export markets. Todd Gleason: Thank you, Eric. Eric Snodgrass: You bet. Todd Gleason: Eric Snodgrass is with NutrienAgSolutions. He joined us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Stay with us for the remainder of the hour to hear our Commodity Week program, or find it online at WILLAg.org.