Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 5 Lines with Scooch and Chad "Middlemonster" Millman

Transcript

NFL Week 5 Lines with Scooch and Chad "Middlemonster" Millman · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. I am Shad Mellman
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: from the Action Network. It is Wednesday morning when you
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: were downloading this, or maybe Thursday or maybe Friday, but
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: today is the very special day when we get Bob
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: scoochi bookmaker at the Orleans and all the Boyd gaming
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada as well as a
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: growing empire where he is bookmaker to the world. Scooch,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: don't talk. We've got some intro music for you. You
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: cannot tell me when you're done with that music that
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: you're like not super psyched to go book Yeah, it
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: gets me pumped up every time. I mean I hear that.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I once had a here's a great story. You love
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: this story. So years ago when I worked at ESPN,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: I was at a conference and one of my closest
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: friends at ESPN ran all of ad sales, and we
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: were at the conference and there are a bunch of
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: different panels and um, every time someone came out, there
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: are a lot of athletes speaking on panels and stuff.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Every single time someone came out, they would come out
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: to highlights, like you know, highlights of themselves with this
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: great music and you'd be so inspired when it was over,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: so inspired when it was over, and he and I
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: were standing like at the back of the conference, just
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: sort of sucking around, and I said to him, I
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: feel like if I had a highlight reel of me
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: doing the mundane things I do in the office with
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: like good music, like living in the Hall of Fame,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: you know, like living in the Hall of Fame, you know,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: like that song, I would I look amazing, I look heroic,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: like me at a whiteboard, me with my feet on
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: my desk, making a phone call, me slamming the door
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: on somebody whatever. He's like, God, that would be amazing. Uh.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I said to him, how much you want to bet
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: the first one of us to do that? We were
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: in meeting together all the time. The first one of
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: us to do that in a meeting. We cannot tell
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: each other we're doing it. We just have a presentation.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: That's how we start the presentation. He goes a thousand dollars.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: So in that moment, he and I bet a thousand
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: dollars that. Uh, the first person who plays a highlight
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: video of them doing mundane office tasks in front of
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: an entire room of people, we'll win a thousand dollars. Right,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So for the next year, he and I every meeting
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: we go to we just look at each other. We're like,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: is this gonna be the day They're gonna happen? And
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: it never happens. Right. So ESPN every couple of years
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: will have this massive uh off site sales meeting. The
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: entire you know, four or five six people, everyone in
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the sales organization will disappear for two days and they'll
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: do like two days of you know, learning and setting
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: themes for the year and getting presentations and how to
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: be more effective in their job. And one of the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: years they did this, they asked me to sort of
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: be the m C of the event for two days
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: where I give the opening remarks like a keynote speech,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and then sort of between the different presentations, I go
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: up and like find the connective tissue and scooch. I
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: just need a verbal confirmation you're still with me, You're
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: still there? Yeah, okay, because I'm talking a lot right now.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure I'm sure no doubt
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: like the over under on me before I would let
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: you speak, says people and put lines on this on Twitter.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: It was like five or seven minutes. It's going it's
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: going over close, that's going way fucking over. And so
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I've got to give this presentation right the morning. The
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: presentation is like a thirty and everyone's outside in the
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: hallway like you're having your bagels and coffee or whatever.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: And I see my buddy and I'm introducing him. He's
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: like seeking after me, and he looks at me. He goes, oh,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I go what. He goes, today's the day. I go,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: what are you talking about? He goes, You're gonna do
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the video. I'm like, his name is Eric. I'm like
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: it called me j e J. This is not the day,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: like your boss, the president of ESPN, like sales is here.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: There's four or five people here. I don't know everybody
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: in this room. I'm giving like a serious presentation. I
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: cannot I can't use this time to do that today.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: He goes, yeah, it makes sense. So I go up there.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I give my remarks for about ten minutes, and I go,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna bring out e J. But before I do,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: there's one thing I have to do. And then I
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: look at e J and I smile, and he's in
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: the on the side of the stage literally does a
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: spit take and someone presses play on the video and
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: they do a video with me to living in the
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. Uh as a highlight reel. And I
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: didn't explain. I didn't explain to anybody what happened. I
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: would just me like doing office tasks. E J paid
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: me a thousand to us No way. Yeah, did did
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: people come to you later? Just like what the fuck?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: He he explained it, He explained what happened. Pretty good.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good. Yeah. I don't how did we even
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: get on that? How did we even get on that?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: The walk up music? Because when you set music, you
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: could be doing anything, and music is gonna make it
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: sound better. So you've inspired me. As I'm moving lines
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in front of my monitors, I'm gonna get some music
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna have someone film it because you have
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: to send that to me and we can post it
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: on Twitter. All right, please do that? All right? Oh
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: my god, that would be amazing. You know what else
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: is amazing? Scooch? What? Uh? This week, the Denver Broncos
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: played the Kancity Chiefs, and I bet the Broncos at
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: plus five and a half and then before the game
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: went off, it was down to three and a half.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: So I bet the Chiefs at minus three and a
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: half and I middle that game. Wow, exploiting US bookmakers again. Huh,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: we got middle profession. That's what they call me. What
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: is that? What is that noise? That was? That was
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: one of my many phones. Jesus, what's going on with you? Man?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: How how's your week I feel like last weekend was
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: off the chain, ridiculous. I wrote about it on the
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Action Network actually network dot com Millins the Red Zone
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Diaries because I um I had literally every game that
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: went to overtime. You know, I had the Raiders, had
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: the Colts, I had the Titans. I had the Cardinals
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: which went to the last second. It was absurd. Well,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: we had. We had actually a pretty good weekend. I'll
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: be honest with you. The morning started out, I thought
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: it was gonna be one of our one of our
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: worst days ever. Uh. You know, the Patriots just started rolling.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Everyone started rolling, and all the favorites were covering Early
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Green Bay. Uh, and then kind of things took a
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: little turn for us. The Tennessee Titans came back and
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: uh upset the Eagles. That was a good one for US.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Um A couple other games that UM kind of went
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: our way and and it turned out to be a
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: decent Sunday. It wasn't a great day, wasn't anything compared
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: to the week before, But what looked like a disaster
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: early on actually turned out okay. You know what I
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: like about it? What did we both win? Our Scooter
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: row letpicks? I can't remember. No. I think I lost
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: because I had the cults, right, I had the cults.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: That was one of the ones I lost in overtime. Oh,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: when you were like adamant that you get to you
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: got to go first? Yeah, you were mad that I
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: got the cults, And I bet you're not mad anymore.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Could I end up taking the Cardinals? I don't remember
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: who you took mad for? Our producer is looking it
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: up right now. You think you think that like I
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: would take care of these things. I've become such a
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: prima donna, like all I do is tell All I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: do is tell stories about myself, talk about my own bets,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: and ask matt Ford for everything. Matt Ford just whispered
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to me that I took Oakland winner. You know what
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that means? What I'm going first for? Scootrou Let today. Alright,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: this is a tough board. This is a really tough board.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I want to get to these games because it is
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: not easy. Like, I see a couple opportunities, I think, um,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: and I already made one bet, but uh, I want
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: to get right into it. Man, Like the New England
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Patriots back being overvalued ten point favorites over the Colts.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you opened this at ten and
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: a half, it's been bent down to ten. Um even
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: though all the money and is coming in on New
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: England right now, tells me the wise guys took a
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: little bit of piece of the Colt at ten. Give
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: me your take. Uh, well, we opened it at ten
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: and went to ten and a half. New England's got
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: some some injuries on this on their side. Gronkowski still
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: uh listed as questionable for the game. So um. You
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: know it's funny because it's it only takes one game
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: for the betting public to just forget everything they saw. Uh.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So you know, if New England just didn't completely dominate
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins last week, uh, you know, then everyone would
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: be talking about how you know, they finally lost the
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: step and they're not as good and but it only
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: takes one game to say, Okay, that's the New England
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: we remember, so now they're double digit favorites. Um, so
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: you know the but these Thursday night games are kind
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of tough to figure out because as we've seen it,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: it seems like almost always one of the teams can't
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: put back to back games together. So either they kind
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: of uh the short week isn't enough for them to
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: prepare for it, or they're kind of looking to the
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: next game. So these Thursday night games are It's the
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: kind of game where I think, uh uh New England
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: would have a tougher time covering double digit uh point
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: spreads against the Colts. I mean, so I favor the
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Colts in this one. I'm okay with needing. Needing the Colts.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: We're gonna need him probably big time because uh the
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: ticket counts about four to one right now. So um, well,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. What do you think of Andrew
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Luck Like he's becoming a hard guy for me to
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: bet against. And I feel like every week I'm betting
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals and the Colts lad just because I
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: think they're undervalued. Um. But so therefore, I've watched every
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Andrew Luck game. He's one of those guys like I
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: don't want the ball in his hand if I'm betting
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: against him on third down. Yeah. Well, you know, I
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: know we say the right side of the winning side,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: but really the Colts I felt were the right side
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: last week against against the Texans that you know, it
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: looked like they had the momentum there at the end.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you saw the game, the Colts got
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: down early because they were in their own back with
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: on their own five four yard line, and they fumbled
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: it and the Texans got a quick touchdown there. Um,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: and even with the Texans up pretty big, I think
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: there are up at one point, Andrew Luck just led
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: right back and it felt like the momentum was on
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: their side. Um. And then of course that you know,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: big decision on fourth and four I think it was,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and they decided to go for it, and uh they didn't.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: They didn't get it, and then they lose it in overtime. Uh,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: it still felt like the Colts were the better team,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: if that makes any sense at all. So, Um, to
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: answer your question, I'm a big Andrew Luck fan, and
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I think ten points is probably too much to give
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: him I'm with you, man, I am totally with you. Um,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: let's talk about another good one. Kansas City three point
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: favorites over the Jags at home. As you know, in
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: case in case I didn't mention it, I middled the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: game last night. Yeah, well, this is gonna be a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: great one. I mean Kansas City four and oh now
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: and going up against that Jacksonville defense. Um, it's it's
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: it's it's right there. I mean, I think three is
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the right number there. I don't think we'll see a
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: whole lot. I mean, the public, we know that they're
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: going to keep riding Kansas City until they lose or
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: just don't cover. But uh, I think the three really
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: is the right number here. I think if any if
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is gonna have a hard time, uh moving
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the ball, it's gonna be against this this defense, and
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: especially with the with the short week. I mean, we've
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: seen Kansas City do this last year too. They jumped
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: out to a you know, five and five and oh
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: record before kind of having a hitting the skids in
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the middle of the year. Of course that was with
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a different quarterback. But I think Jacksonville put a game
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: plan together to slow down the homes. Last night, at
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the end of the game, when uh, it was clear
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: that the Chiefs had won and and I was gonna
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: win both of my bets, I was explaining, you know,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: my wife and I were watching the game in our bedroom,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: and I explained, like what had happened that I middled
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: the game? And she looked at me. She goes, how
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: we rich and and I said to her, uh, only
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: in love and and she said to me, that's not
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: good enough. I'm going to bed. I want the green Bags. Yeah,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I want to be rich the other way. I'm tired
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: of being rich in love. You know. Funny? It was funny, Scooch,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: It was funny. It was so funny I wrote it
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: down all right, next game up. I don't like this game.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Green Bay is at one point favorite at the Lions.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Mm hmm, yeah, was that some sound effects? It's Billy
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Bob Thornton from Slim Blade. M hmm. Gonna you're gonna
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: better than packers? What was that? You're gonna better than packers,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna eat them friend for appotatus. Doesn't that sound
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: like him? Yeah, it kind of does. So this normally
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: looks I feel like scooches just like it's like indulging me,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: like my kids, Like all right, just moving on. Yeah,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: at some point, just yeah, at some point you just
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: gotta say you don't pat him on the head and
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: say it's okay, it's a little yeah, carry on, Mr Scucci.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah yeah. So I mean normally that we know the
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: public is gonna come in, they're gonna look at this
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: game and they're just gonna automatically think that green Bay
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: is is a lock. Here they're only laying they're only
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: laying one and a half points. Um. And I'll tell you,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: green Bay did look pretty good, but they were playing
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: against the Bill's team, so you got to take that
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: with a grain of salt. Last week, the problem I
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: have is green Bay's they've got a lot of injuries,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: are dealing with their their cornerbacks. They've got three cornerbacks
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: that that are still less to this questionable. So going
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: up against a guy that's gonna throw the ball thirty times,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna bode well for them to have half
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: of their secondary out. It feels like an over to me, definitely,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: definitely an over. The problem is all the money is
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: coming into the over, Like have you moved the number
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: is its still at fifty one? Where did you open?
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: We're at fifty and a half. I see some fifty
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: ones out there. It might be time to kind of
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: move the line right now. And I'm talking about so
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: we get at least at least one line change on
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: the board one? Are you doing it right now? Just
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: went just went to one? But when you did it?
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Did you um play any music to make it feel
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: like you? No? I gotta. I told you, I've got
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: to get some music lined up so that each time
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I do something like that, you know, I can start
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: playing the music. You know, I'll put together a little
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: montage the next one. I don't really know what to
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: do with it. Like, I just decided last weekend that
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: the things I believe in are um other than love.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: The things I believe in are short home favorites and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: home dogs. And when I can get a short home
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: favorite of less than field goal, if I can get
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: a home dog of more than a field goal, I
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: basically just wanna hold my nose in bed it right.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: So and I did that last weekend, and it generally
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: worked like I won five of my seven bets. Okay,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: um I lost? Uh what I lose I lost a
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: home favorite with the Colts, and I lost um Minnesota,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: which wasn't a home favorite thing. I just you know,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I just didn't work out for me. Um. But am
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: I really supposed to hold my nose and bet the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Bills is three and a half point dogs at home?
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: A supposed to do? Absolutely? I am, because this is
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: no This was one of the games I had marked
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: on the board as one of the ones that we're
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: gonna absolutely need before I hung the line, I said,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: the line that we have to hang is three. I
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: know that, and uh but I know that everybody's gonna
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: lay the three and by game time we're gonna be
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: at four. But this is the perfect spot for Buffalo.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: So you know, Tennessee, with the big win last week
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: against Philadelphia, they're gonna go across country. They're gonna play
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the the early game in Buffalo. Now, Buffalo is typically
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: one of the hardest places to play. Even so even
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: even when you have a bad team like this year,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: it's still a very hostile environment. And so it's it's
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: one of those games that's going to be tougher than
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: people look, that tougher than people think. So we we
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: hung the three and ironically, the first bet out of
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: the gate was on the bills by one of the
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: sharp guys that we know, and I thought that I
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: was wasn't low enough, and I said, man, I should
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: have hung it two and a half. But within a
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: couple of hours the public just overwhelmingly came in on Tennessee.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: And now the public actually drove it up to three
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: and a half, So I think so, I think the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: wise guys are just gonna wait and see how high
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it will go before they take the bills. But I
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: think the wise guys will be on the bills in
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: this one. Wow. But why is it different for the
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans to go across country and playing Buffalo where
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: it's so hard and the Los Angeles Chargers did it
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: owner in the year as huge favorites and it didn't matter. Yeah, yeah,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I can't it's not gonna worry every time
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: it's it's not gonna I can't answer that. I don't know, Okay,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: but you're telling me this is the perfect spot. This
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: is the prime spot way over inflation on the Titans
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: because of what happened with the Eagles, and they went
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: forward and they won, and just the Bills being the
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Bills after a week of beating up the Vikings then
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: coming back to reality against the Packers. Yeah yeah, I
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: mean next to next to Arizona. The Bills have the
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: lowest point total of any team in the NFL. So
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: it's hard to bet. We already know that it's hard
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: to bet on them. But you can take some good things,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: uh from from their their loss against Green Bay. I
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: mean they it looked like it looked like they moved
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the ball and then just came up short every time.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: But their defense actually, you know, one of the best
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: offenses in the league. They've actually kind of held them
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: to like six points in the second half. I mean
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: they actually showed some some signs, especially on the defensive
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: side that I think now that they're at home coming
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: coming up against the Titans, I think they can shut
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: down the Titans offense. What do you think is going on?
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: That's great analysis right there. That is great. That is
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: bookmaker analysis coupled with football analysis. That is why you
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: are the bookmaker of the world. Yeah, we'll get back
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: to Scoot in the second, but first, Keiland, a historic
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• 21:42
  Speaker 1: select eighteen. Miami Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a six and a
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: half point favorite right now, Boy there, boy tell me
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: where why is that money moving spoit? Cincinnati is is
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: just legit now And I saw now not only if
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: you look at the you know the sharp guys were
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: on them last week, that they they bet them from
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: five and a half down to three and a half
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: in some places at game time, uh last week. And
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: I mean it could have went either way. If you
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: saw that uh game against the Falcons, I mean it
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: kind of came right down to the wire and even
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the point spread was in play right up until the
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: end of the game. But when the Sharp guys are
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: on the same team as the public. We have to
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: kind of compensate for that. So we know the sharp
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: guys have been on the Bengals last couple of weeks.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: We talked about him too, but we talked about the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Bengals team and uh and we I think we both
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: kind of liked him as a matter of fact last week.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: But we know that now the public as well as
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the sharp guys are gonna be on so we want
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: to make it as high as possible. And on the
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: other side of the field, I mean, there was nothing
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: that looked good about that Dolphin Steve and he talked
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: about being kind of overrated. The first couple of weeks
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: that looked like the worst three and old team I've
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: ever seen. Yeah, they were. They came crashing down hard.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I mean the truth is all the value is now
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: out of the Bengals. Like I was on him last week,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I was on him in week one. Um. I was
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: amazed at how much the Shards moved that line, like
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: down to three and a half. It it moved so much.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: On Sunday, I contemplated playing the Falcons. Yeah, because it
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: came down at some point, and when it comes down
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: too far, I think you may have even seen a
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: three out there. I mean, if you if you shopped around.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean at that point it looked like
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: there was value on Atlanta. You know, I'm kind of
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: a sharp player. That's what I did with the Chiefs,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: and so I just you know, I could have taken advantage,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: but I didn't trust the Falcons. But here's another one.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Here's another one. Hold your nose right to hold your
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: nose game. We're gonna start. We've got the corner TV
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: game and we've got to hold your nose game. But like,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: what am I supposed to do? If the Ravens are
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: three point favorites at Cleveland and I've decided I'm betting
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: like home dog some short home favorites. What am I
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: supposed to do? Do I have to bet this game?
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: If I don't bet this game, am I missing out? Like?
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Am I? Is? It like being at the Crafts table
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: and not like sort of playing within the rhythm in
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: the system and like not putting the money down the
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: one time that everything cashes? What am I to do?
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: You have to go with It's like if you're hitting
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: uh sixteen on every hand, you can't suddenly decide I'm
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: gonna stay on sixteen for this one hand. You can't
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: change up the game plan. You you have to play
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Cleveland on this in this game, and I don't I
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: don't think you necessarily have to have to hold your
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: nose and do it. Cleveland has a pretty good defense
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: that they can they can really attack Flacco. And and
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: so I'll tell you we use one. We use one
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: predictive kind of program that takes into account of it's
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: it's basically a simulation program, so it takes into the
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: data and it's simular. It's the game a thousand times
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: and in this simulation it came out with Cleveland a
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: one and a half point favorite every time. So the
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: the statistics, just the raw data, uh, in this kind
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: of formula shows that Cleveland is actually a small favorite here.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: So I don't think you have to hold your nose
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: in this one. Do you feel like this number is
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: gonna move higher? Well, yeah, it's one of the highest
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: bet games for for the public, So yeah, I I
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: could probably see a couple of big betters moving the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: line up to three minus twenty and ultimately three and
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: a half. But I think, uh boy, the sharp guys
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: will just eat that up. I mean, they're just hoping
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: for that three and a half. So if I want
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: to bet this game, I should probably wait. I'm not
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: going to get the best number right now, totally. Yeah,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna go down to two and a half before.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, so, I mean it's it's gonna it's only
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: only gonna go up. So uh yeah, I think you
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: can get a better number later in the week. I
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: bet the Bills plus three and a half. Do you
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: think I pulled the trigger too early? Um No, because
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: like I said, I mean this one, this one, it
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: could go to four, So you might have missed out
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: on a half a point. But I think it's gonna
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: come down by game time. So you got an okay number? Okay,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Uh Caroline, now you're looking You're looking to middle everything now,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: aren't you what I do? You know? Some people call
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: me the Millie Monster. Some people call me the middle Monster,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Middleman Millman. I'm like, I'm like, I'm like that Target
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: commercial d d DA met me in the middle, all right,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I just sampled that. Yeah, Carolina, seven point favorites over
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: the New York Trash. Yeah, boy boy, this team is
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: train wreck trash, Like they don't deserve any of the
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: good will I gave them. I am disgusted at how
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: much I hyped them up earlier in the year. Every
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: single thing I said was wrong. And by the way,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: the Wise guys were too, because they put a lot
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: of money on them for the Super Bowl. They moved
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: their Super Bowl odds quite a bit. Everybody was high
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: on this team. I mean, they showed up the offensive line.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: They thought they were going to get protection for Eli.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: They thought Kwan Barkley was gonna be, you know, the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: the next big thing. And uh this the new coaching staff,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: the new offense, I mean, everything was supposed to go
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: in their favor, where they were supposed to be so
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: much improved, and we gave them a lot of slack
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks, and we said, okay, it
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: takes time, and we thought maybe they showed some some
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: signs of life with Houston, but uh, boy, they just
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: they they are trash. Uh They're just not a good team.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Anybody bet in this game. Anywise guys on this game
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: right now? Nobody, nobody. I don't blame him, am a
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: matter of fact. The why as guys actually late we
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: actually opened six and a half, went right to seven,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: went to seven minus twenty. I see it all one way.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I mean there's hardly any tickets on the Giants whatsoever. Um,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: there's still a couple of six and a half out there.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know why they're not getting bed because I'm
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: ready to go to seven and a half. Wow. Yeah, absolutely,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I mean it's it's ugly. Well, speaking of ugly, like
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos are one point underdogs to the Jets
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: at home. The Jets do not deserve to have anybody's respect.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: They do not even deserve to be home favorites right
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: now against the Broncos team that is pretty stout. No,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: they actually stink on defense. But I think they're better
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: than the Jets, and I feel like the Jets are
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: still living off of like one game against the Lions. Yeah,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: I think you're totally right there, And this is one
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: of the short home favorites that I don't think you play. Um,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: we moved, We moved this game really really quickly. You know.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: We we opened to We're at one right now, and
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: and I'm ready to go. This is the kind of
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: game where I'll go from the Jets minus one to
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Denver minus one on on one play and and it
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: won't have to be a very very big play. Um,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: we've got i mean, next to nothing on the Jets
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: right now, and uh and probably I mean we don't
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot of money on the Broncos. But
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: it's really just loop side uh in terms of like
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: volume and ticket count. Um. So even this is the
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: kind of game where where I'm just gonna kind of
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: go to minus one on the Broncos even right after,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: right after our podcast, I might actually try it out
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: for a little bit. I might just test the waters
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: and see what they do with it. In the digital game,
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: they call that a B testing a V A B
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: A B. Like you test one thing, you test, you
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: test the A headline, You test the headline. You see
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: what works. Okay, A slash B. All right, I'm gonna
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: be it right now. I'm a digital I'm a digital native.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: You can be you can be a digital native. A
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: B test that line, alright, Let be fine. What I
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: call it testing the waters kind of boring. You could
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: do that too, But if you want to impress your
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: friends from now on, like you should be like Linda Jake,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: We're gonna a B test this spread. All right, yeah,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I'll do that. Called Linda right now, Linda, we're a
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: B testing the spread. We're a B testing the Jets,
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the Jeff Broncos. Right now, she's gonna look at you
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: like she's gonna look at you the way my wife
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: looked at me when I told her we weren't rich. Like,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: hang on one second, I might have a play role ready,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: hang on, hello, hey, on which game? Yeah? What'd you
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: get on it? Okay? All right, thank you? All right,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: all right, what do we got? We got some we
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: got some action. What we got what kind of what's happening? Well,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: if you remember what we we moved the we moved
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, So we got uh some pretty big action
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: on the Giants at at plus seven even money, which
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: we're kind of high out there. And then also I
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: got some money on the Jets. Are ready just in
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: that what thirty seconds span that we moved it? Uh so,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: I'm so I'm back to Pick on the game. I
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: moved it to DENVERMNUS one, and I'm back to Pick.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: So I got some quick action. I like it. Wow,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: you listen, I've never heard you sound so giddy like
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: you love booking. Games. You love it. That's what gets
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: that's what gets your blood pumping. And you know what
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: if I had some music right now, so I'm like,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: really like, you know, some like Game of Thrones music
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: or something bom bomb right exactly, dude. Maybe the music
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: that you played at the top of the podcast, maybe
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: we just play that every time like some of the
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the action starts rolling in now scooches producing the podcast.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: You are booking games, moving lines, and producing the podcast
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: all at the same time from the comfort of your
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: office beneath the bowling Alley at the Orleans Yep. Exactly.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Are like the eighth wonder of the world. I feel
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: like I feel like your first successful A B test
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: of a point spread. I think I feel like your
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: first A B test of a point bed was really successful. Yeah,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: I think so too. I like it. Let's test some
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: more stuff. What do you think of the What do
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: you think of the Falcons at the Steelers? There are
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: three point underdogs? Uh this line opened at four and
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I for one loved it when the Falcons were four
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: point dogs. I think the Falcons are still one of
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the best teams in the NFC. And you know, you
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: can't just can't just look at their record and uh,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: you know, just kind of get the distracted from it.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: They still have one of the best offenses in the NFL,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: So they might be one of the best one in
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: three teams out there, like as bad as the Dolphins were,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: you know, through the worst three and oh team, this
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: might be the best one in three team. Uh, the Steelers,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: you know, you you just can't wait anymore on them
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: to finally get their act together. You know, we like,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: like I said at the beginning of the year, kind
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: of gave him a little bit of a passing and
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: they're dealing with no lady on Bell and eventually this
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: team is gonna gel and just give Roethlisberger some some time.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: And I mean he's still and I think in the
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: top five of all the pastors in the NFL in
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: terms of yards. But uh, this this team just they're
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: not They're not the Steelers that anyone expected them today
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: this year. Do you remember the beginning thing of the year,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the season win total was ten and a half and
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: and we said that ten and a half was way
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: too high on that and now that's really kind of
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: panning out. So I actually like the Falcons here I
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: think the public is favoring the Falcons as well, And
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: if anything, this line comes down, I don't think you'll
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: see too many threes by game time. I think you
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: see this down to two and a half. So you're
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: telling me that by game time this game is gonna
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: be a two and a half and I'm gonna have
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: to bet the Steelers as a short home favorite exactly,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: and you're not gonna like it. You are not gonna
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: like it. Gonna hold my nose. I don't really want
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: to talk about the Raiders and the Chargers. I feel
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: like it's kind of a boring game. It's a dead number.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: Uh five and a half? Can we skip it? Absolutely?
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Do you have anything to say about it? I don't
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: want to do a disservice to listeners. I mean, I mean,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: the Raiders were life and death to beat the Cleveland
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Browns and they had to score forty five point to
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: do it. So I think that's all you need to
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: know about the Raiders because the game I really want
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: to talk about. There's like two games coming up that
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I'm dying to talk about, the Rams and the Seahawks.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: The Rams opened it seven and a half. Full disclosure.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I bet it at seven and a half. Um, I
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: might have accidentally better twice, but uh, you say you
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: took the plus seven and a half. Took the plus
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, that's the side. That's the side
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: to take scooch. Yep, It's like, give me a hook
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: on a home dog that like needs the game and
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: has everybody in the world against them, against a team
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: that's inflated. I just feel like, come on, I know
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: the wise guys are with me. Yeah, I mean I
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: really I really thought that the Vikings would would have
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: given the Rams their first loss. Um. Now I'm going
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: to have to say that I think they might stumble
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: against the Seahawks here. Uh, this is a perfect spot
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: for the for a big the dog. It's gonna be
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: talk about Buffalo being a tough place to play, this
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: might be the toughest place to go into play. It's
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be loud, it's gonna be tough. Uh, but I
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: know it's this. It's gonna be tough to watch if
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: you're putting money on the Seahawks because the Rams just
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: look unbeatable. But uh, we have more money on the
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Rams and more tickets on the Rams than any team
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: on the board right now most of its most of
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: its public money. We did get one sharp play ironically
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: on Seattle at plus seven, and now that we're at
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, I'm not getting anything, So that
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: concerns me a little bit. You know, they bet them
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: earlier in the week at plus seven, but now they're
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: not betting them at plus seven and a half. And
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: uh and we just have an avalanche of money on
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: the rams. So this will be our biggest, biggest game
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: on the board in terms of like who we need
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: and uh game being lopside, Well, you know, what did happen?
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: M what happened? I'm pretty sure Michae Kendricks the lineback
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: or who they signed? Suspension the suspension, So I wonder
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: if that's having an impact. Yeah yeah, I mean they
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: were already already kind of depleted um on the defensive side,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: so that didn't help. But but yeah, yeah, and uh boy,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be this is gonna be our biggest game.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: It's an afternoon game that which always kind of puts
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: the microscope on it, so it's gonna be a tough one.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: How about the Arizona Cardinals four point dogs at San Francisco?
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: I might be uh, I might be falling in love
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: with this game on the right. No, you're gonna bet
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: you're you're gonna bet on the team that has the
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: lowest point output in the NFL going up against San Francisco. Okay,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: do that this is a corner game. I don't know
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a way in the corner. Forget it.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to talk about this game. But
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't I bet in Arizona? Like their defense is good,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: they bring a lot of pressure. I think they're finally
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: playing significantly better than they were. I watched a lot
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: of Josh Rosen. I was really impressed, Like, why wouldn't
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: I bet on the Cardinals? Who do the Who do
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: the Niners have? Now? The Niners? Uh? The Niners just
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: got just got decimated then without without Garoppolo, there's not
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: much to I mean, this is the lowest volume of
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: any game on the board, so you have not not
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of interest in it. But I see
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: signs of life with with Arizona. I think you just
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: have to watch Larry Fitzgerald. He's been dealing with that hamstring.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: I mean he looked okay, uh Sunday, But It's just
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: something that you know, we've got to keep an eye
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: on during the During the week, Minnesota is a three
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: point dog at Philly. So I went to three and
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: a half on this game. And you know, we're talking
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: about injuries. Dell Lynn Cooks is um probably gonna listen
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: as doubtful for Minnesota and they're already struggling moving the
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: ball and they're going up against Philadelphia's defense. Philadelphia has
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: the number one ranked defense against the run this year,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: letting up a little under sixty five yards a game.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't bode well when you're running back is injured.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: I think I think the Eagles really bounced back from
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the lost last week. They're gonna be at home now
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna be up for this game. I think
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is gonna see a couple of games skid here
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: and uh, but I think I wanted to be at
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: least on the high side with Philadelphia. Um. You know
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: you talk about the short short home favorites. I know,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: when you get to three, that's not exactly the the
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: line you want to be laying. But uh, I kind
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: of like Philadelphia here, I'm not laying that number until
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: you get to two and a half and you're not
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: getting there. I'm not getting there. If anything that's going up,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I'm passing. I'm passing on this game. I'm also gonna
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: pass on Dallas and Houston, two teams that I just
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I'm having a hard time figuring out this year. Uh,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: both of them. You know, Houston was playing a lot
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: worse during the beginning of the year the first couple
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: of games than I thought they would. I thought they
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: were gonna be a lot better coming out of the gate,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: but then finally they show a game that they look
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Dallas, on the other hand, I'm still I mean,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: they arguably played their best game against the Lions. Uh,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: I'm still not I'm still not sold on on this team.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Their defense is really good, so their defense will definitely
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: uh uh keep them in this game. But I think
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: three is the right number though. I don't think there's
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: any value in either side on this one. Yeah, this
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: to me could potentially be a corner TV game if
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: it wasn't the Sunday night game, it would it will
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: it definitely will be in the corners, but it'll be
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: the the game on and it'll be on all the
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: games in between. What kind of world are we living
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: in when this Sunday night game is less of a
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: marquee matchup than the Monday night game. I know they
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: need to start using that flexi game earlier in the season. Wow,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: no one's gonna care about that game. Uh, this next
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: game the Saints Redskins. Let me tell you something. I
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: love the Redskins at plus seven, but now it's at
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: six and a half. So we're at seven even money,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: which means we opened seven and we took We took
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: a pretty big bet on the Redskins plus seven. For
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: all I know, it might have been you because you
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: love the Redskins and I'm professional, but I'm hesitant to
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: go to six and a half because it is the
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Monday night game, and uh, you know a couple of reasons.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: We want to make sure that we take enough money
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: before getting off of a key number, because the last
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: thing I want to do is go from seven down
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: to six and let everybody parlay the minus six and
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: then have it be all this volume on Monday Night
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: where the game falls seven and we get middled again
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: like we did last Monday. For two people like like
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: you who take take plus seven and then lay six
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: or five and a half and get us both ways
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: and then it's a tea. It's to keep teaser number
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: as well. So uh, I just don't want to give
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: them too much value there. Guys like me, Scooch, we
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: are always looking at the market, trying to find opportunities.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Sometimes sometimes we even move the market in our direction
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: just to take advantage of you. Yeah. Sometimes, guess what
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: time it is time for It's time for Scooch. For
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: let time for Scooch rue Lets here we go. I'm
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: up first, I'm up first. A tough one. It's a
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: tough one. It's a tough one. So many hold your
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: nose game. I guess I gotta go with Seattle. I
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: gotta go with Seattle plus seven and a half game.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: I did did I did it for me. It was
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: like down to Seattle or Buffalo, and I guess I
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: just feel better about the team and the points in
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: that game. Ye. So if that's the case, then I'm
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and take Buffalo. Are against Tennessee. You
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: have to do it. You just have to do it. Wow.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot of half to in this
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: this week. You have to do the Browns. You have
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: to do the Bills. You have to do the Seahawks. Um,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: eventually I'm going to have to do the Steelers because
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be short favorites. Yep, I'm gonna go broke
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: this week. Yeah, on Sunday night, I'll be say on
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: Monday night, I'll be saying to my wife, we're not
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: rich in anything anymore. It'll be that bad. Don't let
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: to get that bad. And I will I will, I
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: will have will run through the entire e J bankroll
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: from when I, you know, played a highlight video responsible gaming.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: My friend will send you some brochures. Maybe you can
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: send me some cash that alright, alright, scooge listen, thank
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: you for joining me on your podcast. I am Chad
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Millman from the Action Network. This has been the Favorites.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I encourage you to go to iTunes. You can rate us,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: you can review us, you can subscribe, you can unsubscribe,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: you can resubscribe. You can also find us an Apple podcasts,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: radio dot com or wherever you listen to podcasts. Join
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: us on Friday for me and black Jack Fletcher. What
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: do