Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did Larry Fink’s SHOCKING WARNING Signal the Next Bitcoin Bull Run? | Bitcoin Simply
Transcript
- 0:00Donald Trump single handedly collapsed the markets yesterday,
- 0:04saying the exact thing that nobody wanted to hear.
- 0:07Yet, if during this period of time no deal is made, we have
- 0:10our eyes on key targets. If there is no deal, we are
- 0:14going to hit each and every one of their electric generating
- 0:17plants very hard and probably simultaneously.
- 0:21After he said that, the markets imploded harder than Duke versus
- 0:25Yukon and crude oil went to $112 a barrel.
- 0:28If no deal is reached, then the world's oil supply gets even
- 0:32smaller than it has been since the war started, and this spells
- 0:35doom for the world. The world economy cannot survive
- 0:40A7 to 11% loss of oil supply. Larry Fink, the CEO of the
- 0:45largest asset manager in the world, gave a chilling warning
- 0:48of what's gonna happen if oil stays higher for longer.
- 0:51We could have years, years of, you know, above $100, closer to
- 0:56$150.00 oil. What happens to the global
- 0:58economy if that happens? How do we see it?
- 1:01We'll have global recession. Today, we're going to break down
- 1:03the possibility of a global recession if the war in Iran
- 1:07continues. We're going to look at how it
- 1:09could lead to 67% inflation and why Bitcoin is the only asset
- 1:14that will survive this. Are you sitting down?
- 1:16Because this episode's about to get explosive.
- 1:18This is Dante Coco Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
- 1:25We have two very extreme outcomes and in my conversations
- 1:30throughout the world with the US government and all that, to me,
- 1:34everybody has to recognize it's there's not going to be an
- 1:39outcome that's somewhere in the middle.
- 1:40It's going to either be two extremes is, is Iran a country
- 1:46that can be accepted by the international community?
- 1:48Can Iran be a country that participates in the world again?
- 1:52And if that outcome occurred, then you could have the Iranian
- 1:56oil back into the marketplace alongside what the growth of the
- 1:59Venezuelan oil. And you could, you could paint a
- 2:01picture where where oil prices could be lower than they were
- 2:05prior to the Iranian war. If there's a cessation of war
- 2:09and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to
- 2:14the, to the Straits of Hormuz, then I would argue then we could
- 2:18have years, years of, you know, above $100, closer to $150.00
- 2:24oil. What happens to the global
- 2:25economy if that happens? How do we see it?
- 2:28We'll have global recession. If you don't know who that is,
- 2:30that's Larry Fink, AKA Uncle Larry, the CEO of BlackRock, the
- 2:34$13 trillion asset manager that controls the pockets in the
- 2:38decisions of governments, pension funds and asset managers
- 2:41all over the globe. He says that there's not going
- 2:44to be an outcome somewhere. We're in the middle.
- 2:46Either we get peace or we get an outright doom scenario that
- 2:49leads to a global recession. His words and not mine.
- 2:52If the war continues, there are going to be implications that
- 2:55people aren't ready for, Luke Grumman says.
- 2:57Worldwide collapse the. World economy cannot survive a 7
- 3:03to 11% loss of oil supply. It will not survive.
- 3:06We can debate is Europe going to go 1st and collapse?
- 3:10Is Southeast Asia going to go 1st and collapse?
- 3:12Will America collapse first? But the global economy is a it
- 3:17is a certainty it will collapse if we keep oil supplies down 7
- 3:23the likelihood we go, we go there and we stay there.
- 3:25What's the timeline like if we go to 711%, for how long?
- 3:29Well, we've been there for six weeks and I think if we get to
- 3:32mid-april, like you're already seeing flights.
- 3:34I just woke up this morning a discount airline and out of
- 3:37London Gatwick cancelled all flights, can't get fuel.
- 3:40The ripple effects of this will be catastrophic.
- 3:42It will have broad structural impacts across everything in the
- 3:45world because oil is in everything.
- 3:47Plastics, clothes, fabrics, even our food supply chain.
- 3:52This isn't just going to lead to higher prices at the gas pump,
- 3:54which is over $4.00 a gallon globally.
- 3:57This is going to lead to 6, 7% inflation everywhere.
- 4:00Mel Madison breaks down the implications of what this means
- 4:03in a great conversation that he had with Marty Bent on the TFTC
- 4:06podcast. Check it out.
- 4:07I was like there's nothing to worry about with inflation and
- 4:11and so I think what we've seen markets doing is worrying about
- 4:15that. Then what does that mean?
- 4:18It means possibly rate hikes. What does that mean?
- 4:21It means higher two year yields. You know, now we got higher bond
- 4:24yields. Now we have to lower the PES
- 4:27that like all these things start flowing from this higher oil
- 4:30price higher for longer. And one of the things I said at
- 4:34the beginning of this war was it would almost be better to have
- 4:37like a spike to 150 and like a quick end of this war come then
- 4:42like something that can be drawn out.
- 4:44And we're, we're, we are in a situation where one of the
- 4:47possible situations is like this drawn out conflict, like maybe
- 4:52some boots on the ground, but it's a lot more of this missiles
- 4:55back and forth. And the economy doesn't
- 4:58completely shut down or go to $200 a barrel because, you know,
- 5:02Iran does is letting like China tankers go through and stuff
- 5:06like this. And so instead of having some
- 5:08sort of a resolution anytime soon, we get this long drawn out
- 5:12conflict where oil just hovers between say 90 and 150.
- 5:17And like you do that and you are going to start getting six 7%
- 5:21inflation down the road. And then you add on to that, you
- 5:27know, the already slowing labor picture and all these AI
- 5:31concerns that people have had. And you do actually wind up
- 5:35getting into that 1970s stagflation situation, which I
- 5:40thought would be impossible for us to get into because oil was
- 5:43so well behaved and we were oversupplied.
- 5:45And the United States is the world's biggest producer and all
- 5:48of this stuff. So we've got so many risks on
- 5:51the table for the market. And I think even the best case
- 5:54scenario, which is this thing wraps up in the next few weeks,
- 5:57somehow magically there's going to be this new premium on oil
- 6:03and that that's it. That's going to be a big, you
- 6:05know, headwind that's going to stop wars from being able to
- 6:09lower rates. As much as I thought at the
- 6:11beginning of the year he was probably going to be able to, I
- 6:14still think he's going to lower rates because I think the
- 6:18economy eventually, if they're, if the prices are that high for
- 6:22that long, it will start to drive, you know, recessionary
- 6:25and, and create demand destruction and all that stuff
- 6:27eventually. But by that point, I mean, man,
- 6:30that economy is already going to be wrecked.
- 6:32In a nutshell, things aren't looking good and the people that
- 6:35will be hurt the most are the people who don't own assets.
- 6:38Because we are in an era of fiscal dominance.
- 6:40There will be money that is printed to cover over or paper
- 6:43over the debt that federal governments and institutions
- 6:46have that they're willing to print at infinitum in order to
- 6:49fund wars. Like Donald Trump coming out and
- 6:51saying that they have a new $1.5 trillion defense spending
- 6:54budget. If you don't own defense assets
- 6:56or assets that make you defensive, well, you're going to
- 6:59get left behind. This is why smart people like
- 7:01Lynn Alden say that Bitcoin is a buying opportunity.
- 7:04Is this Bitcoin a buying opportunity?
- 7:06I do, I think Bitcoin's a buying opportunity.
- 7:08I also think, you know, Latin American banks, for example,
- 7:12airlines, airports, I, I think these things don't necessarily
- 7:16bounce back quickly, but once we do have a light at the end of
- 7:18the tunnel, I think some of those be down areas have a lot
- 7:21of upside. After we thank our sponsors, I
- 7:23want to get to the ultimate segment of our show, a
- 7:26conversation with Jordy Visser and Natalie Brunel from her Coin
- 7:29Stories podcast where they talk about how Bitcoin is the long
- 7:32term solution to the problems in Iran and the disruption
- 7:35happening from AI. Stick around.
- 7:37Lenin has been the leader in Bitcoin back alone since 2018,
- 7:40issuing over $10 billion worth of loans to 10s of thousands of
- 7:43people across the globe. And what they allow you to do,
- 7:46They allow you to borrow against your Bitcoin without selling
- 7:49your Bitcoin. Why sell the greatest asset for
- 7:51an asset that's being printed at infinum?
- 7:53Why sell your Bitcoin with a 21 million supply that's fixed
- 7:56forever for assets like dollars, which are being printed at a
- 8:00pace that we've never seen before?
- 8:02Work with Leaden to unlock liquidity in your Bitcoin
- 8:04without selling it. The application takes just two
- 8:06minutes and loan rates are down down between 9.99% and 11.49%.
- 8:11That's cheaper than a credit card and there's no credit
- 8:13check. Go to learn dot leaden dot AO
- 8:16slash simply to get started. And the other way that you can
- 8:18benefit from a prolonged war is by removing your assets from the
- 8:21banks. We've all heard of eminent
- 8:23domain in the United States government or other governments
- 8:26around the world. Seizing your assets without
- 8:28using saying so to find something that you didn't want
- 8:30to be a part of in the 1st place.
- 8:32Well, you can avoid all of this by getting a coach at the
- 8:35Bitcoin Way. They'll walk you and your family
- 8:37through exactly how to prepare for a scenario where governments
- 8:41might try to seize your assets. Well, they can't seize your
- 8:44Bitcoin private keys if you have them stored properly and you're
- 8:47sovereign over them. Go to
- 8:49thebitcoinway.com/partner/dante Dash Cook to get started.
- 8:53Back to the show. I'm not saying this because I'm
- 8:55sitting here with you. I'm not saying this because you
- 8:58wrote a book on There's a reason why I decided not to work in the
- 9:02Fiat world. There's a reason why I spend my
- 9:05time with the Bitcoin community. I've written a paper about the
- 9:09best macro trade I've ever seen in Risk Rewards.
- 9:12So everyone has read the IPO piece, which I still subscribe
- 9:16to and believe that we're going through it.
- 9:18But the one that was more important for me, I I've always
- 9:21spent my time thinking about what the future is going to look
- 9:24like. I don't see a world with the
- 9:27speed happening in artificial intelligence with AI agents,
- 9:30with humanoids, with everything and us still being on the
- 9:33guardrails of settling a check in in days.
- 9:36Like I don't that doesn't make any sense.
- 9:38The speed of the world is accelerating dramatically and
- 9:41since November it or late November it's accelerated
- 9:45significantly. And for people who don't follow
- 9:47AI close enough, Opus 4.5 changed the world.
- 9:50It accelerated artificial intelligence to the way that
- 9:52you're now seeing it to the point that it disrupted all of
- 9:56these companies, not just software companies, financial
- 9:59companies, trucking companies. You've heard all the stories
- 10:01that will continue to happen and eventually humanoids will do the
- 10:03same thing to manufacturing companies and Caterpillar.
- 10:06And all this because humanoids change the entire equation for
- 10:09physical side. I was at a dinner the other
- 10:12night and I said to people, you have to get in your head, we are
- 10:14not the top of the food chain anymore.
- 10:16That is a huge transition that a super intelligent being that is
- 10:20physically stronger and smarter than the smartest person who's
- 10:23ever lived will be here in five years.
- 10:25You cannot fathom the changes that are going to happen.
- 10:27So when that goes back to Bitcoin, the world doesn't
- 10:30survive with companies and stocks.
- 10:32It survives with assets that don't have a story that can be
- 10:36disrupted. It gets into scarcity.
- 10:39And this is the point where Michael Saylor and I agree on
- 10:41this. At some point, the world has
- 10:43been about the opposite of scarcity.
- 10:46We've. Been economics is based on
- 10:49scarcity. We need scarce assets.
- 10:51We need things that actually have it because we can print
- 10:53everything with artificial intelligence, Picasso's,
- 10:56whatever we want. We can print anything that we
- 10:58want within 5 to 10 years. So that just means Bitcoin is
- 11:03the best opportunity, not because it's the best asset, but
- 11:05because it's the one that doesn't get destroyed by AI
- 11:09Bitcoin. Is one of the assets that
- 11:10doesn't get destroyed by AI. When you think about the world,
- 11:13physical assets are moving towards scarcity, but digital
- 11:17assets are moving towards abundance, and so is information
- 11:19and technology. So how do you blend the two?
- 11:22How do you blend digital scarcity with physical scarcity?
- 11:25Well, you buy the only asset that's tied to physical proof of
- 11:28work that has a limited digital supply.
- 11:31Equities are not a great place to put your money right now, and
- 11:34that's because equities make up 25% of total US net worth.
- 11:38That's the highest since they began collecting the state in
- 11:40the 1940s. This surpassesthe.com bubble,
- 11:42which was about 20% in the 1968 high of 22%, or is going to lead
- 11:47to a collapse in everything, including stocks.
- 11:50And the consumer is the one who is going to be hurt.
- 11:53And it doesn't look like it's going to stop anytime soon,
- 11:55especially with the president making comments that they're
- 11:57going to start bombing bridges. We're going to see a Daisy chain
- 12:00of inflation. Are you prepared?
- 12:02We're a. Month into the war, I don't know
- 12:04who's winning the war. Maybe you can tell me who's
- 12:07winning the war, but I feel like the US consumer is losing the
- 12:11war, meaning gas prices are up, mortgage rates are back up,
- 12:16stocks have been fluctuating but generally down over the period
- 12:19of time of the war. How would you react to that
- 12:22state the the? The war, there was hope that
- 12:24this could be a fast war like Venezuela, that we have regime
- 12:27change. And I think that quickly turned
- 12:30out false hope. And now we've got crude at
- 12:33$104.00 as we speak and bring crudes at $120.00 or 118,
- 12:38whatever. And so oil is high.
- 12:41That will lead to higher fertilizer prices, higher food
- 12:45prices, higher plastic prices. And so there is a Daisy chain of
- 12:50inflation that's headed our way. If that's the case, you want to
- 12:53own scarce assets, assets not correlated to the market, and
- 12:56then have physical properties associated with them.
- 12:58Assets like gold and assets like Bitcoin.
- 13:00Bitcoin is the ultimate one for this trade.
- 13:03Don't overcomplicate this. We've been talking about this
- 13:05all along. If you haven't already done so,
- 13:07subscribe to the channel. We drop alpha like this seven
- 13:10days a week to have you prepare for what comes next.
- 13:14And if you haven't already got the news, we always talk about
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- 13:47simply happy stacking.