Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Too Selective | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/7/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Too Selective | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/7/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt man, you look
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your name steal means something on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on nothing nice not now, hold on.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: Hold on me for.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: That, but it'll get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 5: Stay with me. Now, what's up?
• 1:28
  Speaker 6: Everybody? It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports, Tuesday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 6: July seventh, one and all on the show yesterday. So
• 1:37
  Speaker 6: I'm trying something different with my headphones here, but I
• 1:40
  Speaker 6: hear an echo behind me.
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: So I don't know what I want to do about this.
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna try to Yeah, that's better. I think. I
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: don't know. No, I feel like my like monitoring is
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: on a delay here. I don't know. This is not
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: not what I wanted.
• 1:54
  Speaker 6: This is not good. I might have to ditch this again. Ilogize.
• 2:00
  Speaker 6: I'm trying something new to try to like limit my
• 2:03
  Speaker 6: voice here, but it's just not working like I'm trying to.
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: I need to do direct monitoring.
• 2:07
  Speaker 6: I threw my scarlet over here and I was trying
• 2:12
  Speaker 6: to do it through windows, but it's just I don't know,
• 2:15
  Speaker 6: it's just not working right. But yes, we went one
• 2:17
  Speaker 6: and all on the show yesterday, Yankees won.
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: It wasn't as easy as it looked.
• 2:22
  Speaker 6: They didn't have many hits at all, like they were
• 2:23
  Speaker 6: winning the whole game. Once they scored on it was
• 2:26
  Speaker 6: nothing nothing. They scored three and they made it three nothing,
• 2:29
  Speaker 6: but they only had one hit at that point, so
• 2:32
  Speaker 6: it wasn't exactly what it looked like on the scoreboard.
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: They actually got out hit in the game.
• 2:37
  Speaker 6: But they finished off the game and they won five
• 2:39
  Speaker 6: to one, so we got the win with that. I'm
• 2:43
  Speaker 6: pissed it in that Belgium to my card, that was
• 2:45
  Speaker 6: my favorite of the soccer plays. That would have been
• 2:48
  Speaker 6: the next thing I would have added to my card.
• 2:51
  Speaker 6: You know, I know I was right about some other
• 2:53
  Speaker 6: baseball stuff too. What can you do, man, I mean,
• 2:56
  Speaker 6: when you're selective, you're gonna have opinions that you have
• 2:58
  Speaker 6: that are right and they just go un bet. But yeah,
• 3:03
  Speaker 6: I should have bet Belgium and that was just that
• 3:06
  Speaker 6: was such an easy win with Belgium, So congratulations to
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: SOB for that.
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: Yes, thank you, Gerald. What's up all right? I should be.
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: Yeah, like eight and three, nine and three with soccer,
• 3:18
  Speaker 6: and I'm only seven and three from leaving things on
• 3:20
  Speaker 6: the table. But I guess you know, at least one
• 3:23
  Speaker 6: of the wins was lucky, so whatever. We got a
• 3:25
  Speaker 6: lot of baseball today. I actually hate the baseball board today.
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: It is bad. There are a lot of undecided pitchers.
• 3:32
  Speaker 6: There are a lot of games that looked like they'd
• 3:35
  Speaker 6: be a game that I would play and they turned
• 3:37
  Speaker 6: out to not be, so I don't really like any
• 3:41
  Speaker 6: of this. We have a doubleheader with Milwaukee and Saint Louis,
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: which I assume is from some previous rain out that
• 3:47
  Speaker 6: these teams have had. I have no idea because these
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: teams also played yesterday Saint Louis return home for road trip,
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: and they did lose four to three yesterday. This is
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: gonna be really difficult to handicap because we have no
• 3:59
  Speaker 6: idea what's Saint Louis is doing with their pitching, Like
• 4:03
  Speaker 6: I'm pretty sure they used dustin May yesterday, so I
• 4:07
  Speaker 6: don't know what they're doing today. At this point, I
• 4:10
  Speaker 6: think Michael McGreevy is going to pitch one of these games,
• 4:12
  Speaker 6: but we have no idea which right now. The first
• 4:15
  Speaker 6: game is at two fifteen Eastern. It's that early because
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: there's a doubleheader here. It looks like Jacob Mizerowski is
• 4:22
  Speaker 6: going for Milwaukee in game one, you know. I mean,
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: these games are going to be almost impossible to predict.
• 4:28
  Speaker 6: Though Saint Louis used four relief pitchers yesterday. I mean,
• 4:31
  Speaker 6: I think we could assume Mizzerowski will do well, even
• 4:34
  Speaker 6: though he did have one really bad start recently. Milwaukee
• 4:37
  Speaker 6: used two relief pitchers. Milwaukee is the better bullpen here.
• 4:42
  Speaker 6: They are ranked ninth. Saint Louis is ranked twenty first.
• 4:47
  Speaker 6: Hitting wise, Milwaukee has been better as well, their eighteenth.
• 4:50
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis is sixteenth. Miss looks like he is going
• 4:55
  Speaker 6: in game one here, which it does look like that's
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: the case here, and that's why Milwaukee is a big
• 4:59
  Speaker 6: favorite at minus one ninety here or somewhere around there.
• 5:03
  Speaker 6: Eighty three percent of tickets eighty percent of the cash
• 5:05
  Speaker 6: on them, So the money is fading Milwaukee, and they're
• 5:09
  Speaker 6: a very public side.
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: But it's like, how can you fade Milwaukee.
• 5:12
  Speaker 6: And you don't even know who Saint Louis is putting
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: out there on the mound. I mean, I guess it's
• 5:17
  Speaker 6: just a value play basically, like the professional money is
• 5:20
  Speaker 6: basically just saying, well, we just think Milwaukee is gonna
• 5:24
  Speaker 6: be overpriced with Mizierowski on the mountain playing and simple.
• 5:27
  Speaker 6: I mean I dig deeper than that. I don't just
• 5:30
  Speaker 6: throw money on perceived value, like I need matchup stuff
• 5:34
  Speaker 6: to line up for me. Mizierowski's been really good. He's
• 5:37
  Speaker 6: still the cy young front runner in the NL one
• 5:39
  Speaker 6: point four to seven ERA point seven to eight, WHIP
• 5:43
  Speaker 6: one point three ERA on the road, really really good
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: stuff here. Uh, Like I said, he wasn't that well,
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: he wasn't even bad. Last time out of gat Cincinnati.
• 5:52
  Speaker 6: We got screwed on the show because I gave it
• 5:55
  Speaker 6: an under. In that game it was Mizierowski against Burns. Mizierowski,
• 6:00
  Speaker 6: we have five runs.
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: And four of them were unearned.
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: I mean, so he wasn't even bad in that game.
• 6:05
  Speaker 6: He had ten strikeouts. Just the fielding was awful for
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: the Brewers in that game. He does do well against
• 6:12
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis forty six at bats, two seventeen average, five
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: ninety one ohps. So I would not bank on him
• 6:17
  Speaker 6: pitching poor Lamb and that is not what I would do.
• 6:20
  Speaker 6: If you're gonna fade him, it's gonna be really just
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: that you're trying to get some value on Saint Louis.
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: But they really don't have too many edges year.
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: Like I showed you, Milwaukee, better team, better bullpen, better offense.
• 6:32
  Speaker 6: I mean, what more do you want? And McGreevy is
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: going to pitch one of these games most likely. I
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: don't know what Saint Louis is doing otherwise, but he's
• 6:40
  Speaker 6: been good for them three point one two ERA, one
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: point one to one WHIP. He's good at home one
• 6:45
  Speaker 6: point nine to six home ERA. He was pretty good
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: in his last two starts against Miami at home in Atlanta.
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: On the road, McGreevy doesn't strike a lot of guys out.
• 6:56
  Speaker 6: He's got a low hit rate though, and pretty low
• 6:59
  Speaker 6: walk rate too. He doesn't put guys on base, but
• 7:01
  Speaker 6: he doesn't strike them out. Milwaukee, though, hammers him seventeen
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: at bats, not a big sample size there before twelve average,
• 7:09
  Speaker 6: twelve sixty five ops, sixty three strike out walk ratio,
• 7:13
  Speaker 6: so that's not good. So McGreevy in whichever game he pitches,
• 7:17
  Speaker 6: definitely could be fatable here if he's pitching.
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: In game one.
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: Obviously I do not like Saint Louis if that is
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: the pitching matchup. I don't know if you could really
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: play Milwaukee there. But you know, again, I mean, this
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: is just a hard double header to figure out. Miss
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: by the way before I forget, obviously has a really
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: low hit rate, one of the lowest. Walk rate is
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: pretty low as well, and strike got rate is I
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: think maybe the highest in baseball.
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: So do what you want with all all that info.
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: The second game doesn't even have a line on it yet,
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: and neither team has announced a starter yet. There is
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: the possibility of a call up, because when you have
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: a double header, teams are allowed to call I think
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: maybe one or two guys up from the minors just
• 8:01
  Speaker 6: for that day, So keep that in mind. But you know,
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: I always also say with the doubleheader that a lot
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: of times I tend to look kind of towards an
• 8:08
  Speaker 6: over in Game two because the bullpen usage can be
• 8:11
  Speaker 6: really high in Game one. All things to consider, but
• 8:15
  Speaker 6: there's no way I'm touching either of those games. I mean,
• 8:17
  Speaker 6: there's just not enough information, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
• 8:20
  Speaker 6: for hanging out all right? One second here, my dude,
• 8:26
  Speaker 6: I gotta do something. I'mbout my voice. My voice is
• 8:28
  Speaker 6: just so bad right now. I don't know what is
• 8:31
  Speaker 6: going on with this, and I'm trying to do something
• 8:34
  Speaker 6: so I can hear, you know, hear myself and fix this.
• 8:38
  Speaker 6: You know, I don't know what to do. I need
• 8:42
  Speaker 6: to do something where I can, like lower my voice
• 8:44
  Speaker 6: but monitor my own voice.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: It's just not working out.
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: Next game is my only play in baseball, and I
• 8:51
  Speaker 6: don't even like it. I really don't, you know, I
• 8:55
  Speaker 6: was close to not even giving out a baseball play.
• 8:58
  Speaker 6: This board is just it's bad, and there are a
• 9:01
  Speaker 6: lot of undecided starters here. I'm gonna give out the
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: Chicago Cubs as a play here against Baltimore.
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: These two teams both rested yesterday.
• 9:09
  Speaker 6: Baltimore's returning home from a road trip, although it was
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: only a quick road trip to Cincinnati.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: Now that's not that bad.
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: Usually I like to fade teams when they've been on
• 9:18
  Speaker 6: longer road trips and they're returning home. But still, I
• 9:22
  Speaker 6: don't think Baltimore is that good. I think Chicago is
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: better than they are. I still think it's a slightly
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: negative spot for Baltimore, and they did just lose a
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: win streak of I think three games with that loss
• 9:33
  Speaker 6: to the Reds, so maybe that will hang them over
• 9:36
  Speaker 6: a little bit. Meanwhile, Chicago salvaged the last game against
• 9:39
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis.
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: To end their losing streak.
• 9:41
  Speaker 6: That might give them some momentum going forward, and they're
• 9:45
  Speaker 6: starting a road trip here, so I think the Cubs
• 9:48
  Speaker 6: may be focus here in a spot like this. I
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: also like the starting pitching to favor the Cubs here.
• 9:54
  Speaker 6: We do have two rested bullpens, and the Cubs are
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: also the better bullpen, even though they haven't been that
• 9:59
  Speaker 6: good recently.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: They're now twelve Baltimore is fourteenth.
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: But I still think the Cubs are the better bullpen,
• 10:05
  Speaker 6: so I will leave them in in a scenario where
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: both bullpen's arrest and I think Baltimore's closer is still
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: hurt too, but if all things go right here, they
• 10:14
  Speaker 6: shouldn't even be in a scenario where they want to
• 10:16
  Speaker 6: bring him in.
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: Cubs are the better offense their rank fifth.
• 10:20
  Speaker 6: Baltimore is seventeenth, and I like to starting pitching, like
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: I said, even though it's a little bit questionable with
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: Matthew Boyd here. I mean, I know his season numbers
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: don't look good. Five point eight RA, one point four whip.
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: Obviously that's bad. He's slightly worse on the road five
• 10:37
  Speaker 6: point one to nine ROADYRA. But if you look at
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: what he's done over the last couple of years, I mean,
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: I don't really know how it happened, but he came
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: from out of nowhere and he was really good for
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: Cleveland in twenty twenty four, although he didn't pitch much,
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: But then he had a full season last year for
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: the Cubs where he was really good. So I'm kind
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: of expecting him to to get back to something similar
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: to that, even though I know he's not young. He's
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: thirty five. He's coming back from injuries and stuff. He's
• 11:04
  Speaker 6: showing some signs of maybe getting a little better.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 11:08
  Speaker 6: He's coming back from another injury where he missed almost
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: two months. He didn't do that well against the Mets,
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: did have four walks, and then he pitched against San Diego,
• 11:17
  Speaker 6: which I know those are basically the easiest matchups you
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: could have, but he pitched okay against San Diego. I
• 11:23
  Speaker 6: think he's gonna continue improving a bit here. And he
• 11:26
  Speaker 6: has good numbers against Baltimore, which I know, I mean,
• 11:29
  Speaker 6: I don't know how much weight we want to put
• 11:31
  Speaker 6: into this, but they've had thirty three at bats against him,
• 11:34
  Speaker 6: they only have two extra base hits doubles from Retchman
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: and Tavaras, thirteen strikeouts, one walk, two twelve average five
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: O eight ops. So he has really good numbers against Baltimore.
• 11:46
  Speaker 6: So I'm gonna lean into that a little bit. And
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: I'm also gonna fade Shane Bose on the other side,
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: even though he has the better looking numbers four point
• 11:54
  Speaker 6: one to ninety RA, one point three to seven whip
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: is not that good, though he is a little bit
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: better at home four point zero eight homeie Ira Boz
• 12:02
  Speaker 6: was pitching a little bit better throughout the last month
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: plus basically for the most part, but he's got some
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: issues here, man, Like his control is still kind of
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: a problem.
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: He walked four guys last time out.
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: He's got a pretty low hit rate basically, but his
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: walk rate is too high.
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: His strike cut rate's not really that good.
• 12:20
  Speaker 6: He's not a great pitcher, And really this is a
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: matchup play for me because his numbers against the Cubs.
• 12:25
  Speaker 6: I know it's a small twenty two at bat sample size,
• 12:28
  Speaker 6: but this is some bad stuff.
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: Five hundred batting.
• 12:31
  Speaker 6: Average, thirteen to forty oh ps, five to one strike
• 12:35
  Speaker 6: out walk ratio.
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: That's the only good thing about these numbers.
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: I basically had to I mean, this is all I
• 12:41
  Speaker 6: found on the board man, And as far as Boyd
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: is concerned, we just don't have a big sample size
• 12:46
  Speaker 6: this year to look at. So I think last year
• 12:49
  Speaker 6: is closer to an indicator of what he is than
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: this year. That would be the hope here at least.
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: But he does have a high hit rate, his walk
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: rates not excellent. His strike out rate is still there though,
• 12:58
  Speaker 6: so that is a good sign that he still has
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: more than one strikeout per inning this year. So that
• 13:03
  Speaker 6: should tell you that he does still have his stuff,
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: he has his strikeout ability.
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: So I'm gonna do it.
• 13:09
  Speaker 6: This is my only play, you know, I mean, it's
• 13:12
  Speaker 6: probably my least favorite of my plays today. It's a
• 13:16
  Speaker 6: short price on the Cubs. They got fifty nine percent
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: of ticket sixty two percent of.
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: The cash on them.
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: Maybe you worry a little bit because it looks too easy.
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: Maybe to play the Cubs here, I guess that would
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: be the worry, but they haven't exactly been playing great
• 13:30
  Speaker 6: baseball recently, so I don't know. I just felt that
• 13:33
  Speaker 6: the matchup was right, and the money looks like it's
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: slightly indicating in that same direction. So that's my only
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: baseball play. Maybe I should have just left the entire
• 13:43
  Speaker 6: baseball board alone.
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: A is at Detroit. Both teams were off yesterday.
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: Detroit is returning home from a road trip where they
• 13:50
  Speaker 6: were really good. They swept the Yankees in the Bronx
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: and then they took two out of three in Texas.
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: So this is a bad spot for Detroit.
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: They're returning home from the road, and you know, as
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: I reiterate over and over again, bad spot, you can
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: get distracted. You have to get back to home life whatever.
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: The A's are starting a road trip off a bad
• 14:10
  Speaker 6: sweep at the hands of Miami at home, so the
• 14:13
  Speaker 6: A's should be in a better spot. Like a lot
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: of times, teams will bounce back when they're doing bad
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: at home and they just get to get out of
• 14:19
  Speaker 6: there and go on the road. But there are some
• 14:21
  Speaker 6: issues if you want the A's here. Mostly that they're
• 14:24
  Speaker 6: pitching doesn't match up that well here.
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: Mostly the bullpen. Their bullpen's bad. Twenty fifth. Who are
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: we talking? I forget where? Oh Detroit.
• 14:35
  Speaker 6: Yeah, Detroit's bullpen is okay, they're at nineteenth.
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: The A's are the better offense, they're ninth.
• 14:41
  Speaker 6: Detroit is eighteenth starting pitching, though you could argue that
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: the A's are less like you could argue the A's
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: should be less of an underdog here than what they
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: are because the A's are going with JT. Gin and
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: he might actually be their best starting pitchers three point
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: four ERA one point two to three whip, which isn't amazing,
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: but it's not bad, especially consider he has to pitch
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: in the A's stadium, which is awful. Gin is actually
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: well suited for it because he induces a lot of
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: ground balls and he's been better on the road, which
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: makes sense because pitching in that stadium is really difficult
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: two point three to one road ra so he's in
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: his better of his home road splits. He had five
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: walks last time out against the Dodgers. That is a
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: little bit concerning. It's also concerning that he threw over
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: one hundred pitches for the first time this year, so
• 15:33
  Speaker 6: a lot of times I missed that. But when a
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: pitcher throws over one hundred pitches for the first time,
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: a lot of times you do want to fade them
• 15:39
  Speaker 6: in the next game.
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: And I believe that.
• 15:41
  Speaker 6: Was the case with Griffin Jacks yesterday, by the way,
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: who we faded because he was pitching for Tampa Bay.
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: He was not bad in that game though, so but
• 15:50
  Speaker 6: sometimes when a pitcher exerts themselves like that, they won't
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: do as well the next time out. Gin was good
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: in that start, though. Besides the walks, he gave up
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: one run in six innings the Dodgers, so that's still
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: pretty good. He's got a low hit rate, his walk
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: grade is still too high, though his strikeout rates a
• 16:08
  Speaker 6: little bit low. But Gins's main issue is his walks.
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: He does induce a lot of ground balls, like I said,
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: so that's how he gets away with pitching in the
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: A's stadium. Going up against Detroit, he does not have
• 16:20
  Speaker 6: particularly good numbers. In thirty seven at bats three twenty
• 16:23
  Speaker 6: four average, seven forty eight ohps.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: Is not as bad as you might think.
• 16:28
  Speaker 6: It's still not really something I want to back though,
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: nine to one strike out walk ratio, and he's gonna
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: have to go up against Tarrek Scooball, who is still
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: one of the best pitchers in baseball.
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: He's coming back from injury.
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: He looks pretty good again three point one five ERA,
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: point nine to one whip.
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: Hasn't been as good.
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: At home though, four point four to four homie ra
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: which is kind of interesting. But I mean, since he's
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: come back from injury, it's kind of like he's improved
• 16:53
  Speaker 6: with every start. He's going deeper into these starts. He
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: just pitched really well against the Yankees, really two starts
• 16:59
  Speaker 6: in a row. I mean, I know, you give up
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: four runs the first time, but one hit them the
• 17:03
  Speaker 6: second time, give up one on and run. He had
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: eighteen strikeouts and no walks over those two starts. And
• 17:09
  Speaker 6: since he's come back, he has a thirty to two
• 17:11
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio. So yeah, we get it.
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: He's still good.
• 17:15
  Speaker 6: He's got a low hit rate on the season, a
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: really low walk rate on the season in a high
• 17:19
  Speaker 6: strikeout rate as well.
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the A's.
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: They're a pretty formidable lineup, but he's pretty much dominated
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: them in fifty nine at bats twenty three strikeouts, one walk, Yeah,
• 17:31
  Speaker 6: that's pretty good, one eighty six batting average, five to
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: ninety ops allowed. I know it's a bad spot for Detroit,
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: so I don't want to play them. You know that
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: you're gonna get it's gonna be an like.
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: The price is gonna be too high with school ball
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: on the mound.
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: You know you're always gonna pay a tax for him,
• 17:48
  Speaker 6: if you want to call it that. Minus one eighty
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: something is the price on Detroit. The money is fading
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: them eighty eight percent of tickets, eighty six percent of
• 17:56
  Speaker 6: the cash on them. Obviously, there are two reasons for that.
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: One is it's a bad spot the return home spot.
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: Two is that the price is just too high on
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: school ball. And I agree that gen might have the
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: ability to battle Schoolable here because he is not that bad,
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: but he's still worse than Schooble and has the worst
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: matchup numbers here, So I don't want to bank on that,
• 18:17
  Speaker 6: even though that argument could be made. But if you
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: want to play the A's, you got to play them
• 18:22
  Speaker 6: first five. You can't leave their bullpen, and even though
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: they are rested, there's no way I would do that.
• 18:29
  Speaker 6: The under is kind of an interesting thought. I mean,
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: the totals at eight, I wouldn't include the A's bullpen
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: in that either. Though if I was gonna go under,
• 18:37
  Speaker 6: I would go first five here. You could consider the
• 18:40
  Speaker 6: under maybe, because I mean, you're looking at the best
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: starting pitcher basically from both teams here. Problem with that
• 18:47
  Speaker 6: is still though that gen just doesn't really match up
• 18:50
  Speaker 6: that well here, So do with that what you want.
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: But he is in the better of his home road splits.
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: I think that is probably that is my preferred approach
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: in this game, though probably his first five under though.
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: All Right, Atlanta and Pittsburgh.
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh's returning over from a road trip.
• 19:08
  Speaker 6: They went to phillyam Washington, so it's not exactly a
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: long distance they're traveling here, but they still went out
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: on the road.
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: They had a couple of.
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: Pretty big series here. They beat Washington to finish their
• 19:19
  Speaker 6: road trip. They had yesterday off, which Atlanta did not,
• 19:22
  Speaker 6: so both teams have a disadvantage that the other team doesn't.
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: So Atlanta is starting a road trip, and usually I
• 19:30
  Speaker 6: like teams that are starting a road trip, especially because
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: Atlanta just lost twice to the Mets to they wound
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: up splitting that series of the Mets ridiculous. Both their
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: losses by one run, which we won on the second
• 19:43
  Speaker 6: to last game in that series, although that should have
• 19:45
  Speaker 6: been an easier win for the Mets. The Mets were
• 19:49
  Speaker 6: up seven in the eighth inning I think in that
• 19:51
  Speaker 6: game and they almost blew it. Or maybe it was
• 19:53
  Speaker 6: the ninth inning even anyway, Atlanta started a road trip
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: off a couple embarrassing losses, so that should be a
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: positive spot for Atlanta. Problem is, Atlanta played yesterday and
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh did not. Problem for Pittsburgh is they're returning home
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: from a road trip. So you know, it's a tough
• 20:12
  Speaker 6: spot to figure out because they're negatives on both sides here.
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: So Atlanta has an advantage in.
• 20:17
  Speaker 6: The the you know, the road trip dynamics. Pittsburgh has
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: a rest advantage. So which one of those wins out here?
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: I don't know. I mean, yeah, it's difficult to say.
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: I think in this case, probably the road trip advantage,
• 20:32
  Speaker 6: in my opinion, might win out. So I would probably
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: give Atlanta a little bit of a situational edge.
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: But that was an extra inning game for Atlanta yesterday.
• 20:41
  Speaker 6: Their bullpen didn't do well in that game and they're
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: used up right now. They used five guys out of
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: the bullpen yesterday. That's not great. Although Atlanta still has
• 20:50
  Speaker 6: a bullpen advantage here. They're number one still though the
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: Yankees are actually catching up to them, which I do
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: not like. Pittsburgh is not a very good bullpen. Where
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: are they at? Oh, they're way down at twenty second. Yeah,
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: not very good. Atlanta's offense has fallen off a bit.
• 21:08
  Speaker 6: They're fifteenth, Pittsburgh is second. Pittsburgh does have the better offense.
• 21:13
  Speaker 6: This is an interesting pitching matchup where you have two
• 21:16
  Speaker 6: pretty young pitchers here, Hurston Waldorp pitching for Atlanta.
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: And by the way, Garrett can correct me if I'm wrong,
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: But I I heard that Waldrop is a former NASCAR driver?
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: Is that right? Now?
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: He's pitching in the major leagues. I don't know, man,
• 21:31
  Speaker 6: this guy he's got various talents.
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 21:35
  Speaker 6: Waldrop is kind of interesting because he did pitch a
• 21:37
  Speaker 6: bit last year, and he put up some pretty good
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: numbers for Atlanta last year, all those walk rate was
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: too high. This year, it's hard to gauge what he's
• 21:45
  Speaker 6: doing because he's only had a couple of starts. Three
• 21:47
  Speaker 6: point six eighty rra al those whip doesn't look good
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: right now one point six y four, but based on
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: last year, he's better than that. He has a zero
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: road era right now, but that's because he's only his
• 21:59
  Speaker 6: one road star and it actually wasn't really that good.
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: He went two winnings and he walked for guys against
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: San Francisco. That's not great, but he did pitch okay
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: at home last time, even though his whip is kind
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: of spiked right now, but that's because of his walks
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: in the first game. Last game, he was actually a
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: little bit better. He held Saint Louis to three runs
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: and five and a third innings. He was decent in
• 22:21
  Speaker 6: that one. I think he's a decent pitcher. I mean,
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: his walk rad's a bit concerning right now, but that
• 22:25
  Speaker 6: was just one start where he hadn't pitched in the
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: major since last year, so maybe you'd give him a
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: pass for that. But last year, like I said, he did,
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: his walks were his main issue last year though, so
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: hard to gage what's going on here. He's given up
• 22:38
  Speaker 6: like one hit an inning and has one strike up
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: per inning right now. For the most part, Pittsburgh only
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: has one guy that's faced him Brandon Lowe. He's won
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: for one with a home run off him though, and
• 22:51
  Speaker 6: a walk. But still, I mean, I think Waldrop is okay,
• 22:55
  Speaker 6: and maybe you do get a little bit of value
• 22:57
  Speaker 6: on the Atlanta side, because if you're gonna take Atlanta
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: or your Paul Skeens, and you know Skeens is heavily
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: priced in the market. Skeens also is not pitching well
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: right now. His ray has ballooned to three point six
• 23:10
  Speaker 6: to two, which that's pretty high for Skeens. Ther Man,
• 23:13
  Speaker 6: although his whip is still pretty good at one point
• 23:16
  Speaker 6: oh one, but yeah, he's he's not gonna win the
• 23:20
  Speaker 6: cy young man. His era should be lower than it is,
• 23:23
  Speaker 6: though he's been good at home three point oh two
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: homey ram last couple starts, though, I mean he's been
• 23:30
  Speaker 6: rough the last couple of starts, not very good. He
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: just got bombed by Philadelphia for seven or in runs,
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: although it was on six hits, so you could make
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: the argument he got a little bit unlucky in that start.
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: He gets Pittsburgh, like Skeens is going to bounce back
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: at some point. I mean, he's still one of the
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: best pitchers in baseball. He's got a low hit rate,
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: low walk rate, high strikeout rate, all that good stuff.
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: Still has overall good numbers too, although for skeens they
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: don't look that good going up against the Braves. He's
• 23:59
  Speaker 6: good numbers here, but they only have five hitters who
• 24:02
  Speaker 6: have faced him. Twelve at bats, no extra base hits,
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: six strikeouts, one walk, one sixty seven average, three ninety
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: seven ops. You know, I mean, I'm almost certain the
• 24:15
  Speaker 6: public is gonna be fading Skiing, or I'm almost certain
• 24:18
  Speaker 6: the professionals are going to be fading Skiings here.
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: Let me see what the money looks like.
• 24:24
  Speaker 6: Yeah, seventy five percent of tickets, fifty one percent of
• 24:26
  Speaker 6: the cash on Pittsburgh. I know how the professionals operate. Dude,
• 24:30
  Speaker 6: They're still gonna be like, yeah, Skiing's laying minus one
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: seventy here, Like that price is too high. So the
• 24:36
  Speaker 6: professionals are gonna just grab Atlanta. And in some ways
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: it makes sense, right, Like, if you play Atlanta, you
• 24:42
  Speaker 6: can grab them probably on like a run line or
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: maybe to a split run line money line bet, and
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: you'll get a starting pitcher that might be able to
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: hang in there, and then you get the better bullpen
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: and you get what I think is maybe the better situation. However,
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: you do have to worry because Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: that good over the last few games, and they really
• 25:01
  Speaker 6: really got used yesterday, so that worries me. You know,
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: still probably better than the pittsburh'us bullpen, though the money's also
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: backing the over in this game at eight, which is
• 25:13
  Speaker 6: I don't know, kind of interesting. I guess I think
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: the under might make sense here, like first five under
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: might make some sense here, man, because Waldrop might have
• 25:23
  Speaker 6: a little bit of an extra advantage because Pittsburgh is
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: not familiar with them. You know, I always talking about
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: when young pitchers have unfamiliarity, the offense can struggle a bit,
• 25:32
  Speaker 6: but we're talking about one of the top Pittsburgh is
• 25:35
  Speaker 6: one of the top offenses in baseball, man, and they're
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: really good at home. So this is not an easy
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: matchup for Waldrop. So that would worry me a little
• 25:42
  Speaker 6: bit too. So I think Skeens does still have the
• 25:46
  Speaker 6: upper hand in this matchup, but there is an argument
• 25:48
  Speaker 6: maybe for like a first five under here. I don't
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: think i'd want to go full game because you got
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: an unrested Atlanta bullpen a not good Pittsburgh bullpen, but yeah,
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: I mean I would worry about Waldrop in this particular scenario.
• 26:01
  Speaker 6: So it's it's a difficult game to really find a
• 26:05
  Speaker 6: good way to play it, you know. So I think
• 26:09
  Speaker 6: it's it's a stay away, but you might get decent
• 26:13
  Speaker 6: starts out of both pitchers there. Yankees at Tampa Bay.
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: We did win with the Yankees yesterday. This game is
• 26:18
  Speaker 6: on TBS. The game wasn't really what it looked like though,
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: Like I said, Cabellero hit two home runs and the
• 26:25
  Speaker 6: Yankees got out hit.
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: Four to three. So Schlitzler was good, but Jacks was
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: actually pretty good too. Jacks had ten strikeouts in the game.
• 26:34
  Speaker 6: Now, Schlitzler went eight innings, so he pretty much saved
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: the Yankees bullpen here. But the result was misleading, Like
• 26:40
  Speaker 6: this was not a five to one Yankees win, you know,
• 26:43
  Speaker 6: it should have.
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: Been a lot closer.
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: But we got the win on the show, so I'll
• 26:49
  Speaker 6: I'll be okay with that, even though I want the
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: Yankees to lose. Now what this does, though, Remember part
• 26:54
  Speaker 6: of my handicap yesterday was Tampa was in a return
• 26:56
  Speaker 6: home spot and when a team returns home from the
• 26:59
  Speaker 6: road and they lose that first game, a lot of
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: times they bounce back and they do better in the
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: next game, So Tampa might be able to do that.
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: Both teams I think are gonna show up here. This
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: is a big series.
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: Although the Yankees probably need the series a little bit
• 27:14
  Speaker 6: more because they're behind Tampa's still by three games.
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: Even though I think the Yankees are the better.
• 27:19
  Speaker 6: Team, I don't know about the Yankees matchup in this one.
• 27:22
  Speaker 6: They did save their bullpen, but they did use I
• 27:25
  Speaker 6: think their closer right Bednard. They used him to finish
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: the game yesterday. I don't know why they really did
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: that with a four run lead, but whatever. Tampa Bay
• 27:35
  Speaker 6: used three relief pitchers. The Yankees, like I said, they've
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: moved up to second in bullpen and they have the
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: second best bullpen ERA right now.
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: I don't know how sold I am on that. I mean,
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: they're good.
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: I don't know if they're quite that good, but they're good.
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: Tampa's bullpen is ranked ninth, I think on no.
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: Eighth.
• 27:54
  Speaker 6: I don't think they're that good though, still a mid
• 27:56
  Speaker 6: forours era, so I think they're probably a mid tier
• 27:59
  Speaker 6: bullpen Yankees. Their offense has struggled a bit recently. They're
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: all the way down to tenth Tampa Bay's thirteenth, tied
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: with Houston, but I still think Yankees are the better
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: offense here. Yankees in this game, though, they're going with
• 28:11
  Speaker 6: Will Warren, so they're not going with one of their
• 28:14
  Speaker 6: best pitchers here. Although he's been alright three point seven
• 28:17
  Speaker 6: to three ERA one point three to three whip. Warren
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: is actually a little bit better on the road this
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: year three point six to four road ERA, but I
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: believe he wasn't good last year on the road, so
• 28:30
  Speaker 6: that's somebody keep in mind. He was pretty good in
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: his last start against Detroit, but he was struggling a
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: bit prior to that. He had some issues in the
• 28:37
  Speaker 6: month of June. A lot of walks in there, way
• 28:39
  Speaker 6: too hittable too, So I don't know if I would
• 28:42
  Speaker 6: say he's in good form right now, even though his
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: last start against Detroit was pretty good. He's got a
• 28:47
  Speaker 6: hit rate that's right around one per inning, very average,
• 28:50
  Speaker 6: walk right is decent, strikeout rate is pretty good above
• 28:53
  Speaker 6: one per inning, so he's an alright pitcher. His numbers
• 28:56
  Speaker 6: against Tampa Bay are not great Tampa Bay does have
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: the upper hand against them slightly in thirty five at
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: bats to eighty six average seven to fifty three OPS.
• 29:05
  Speaker 6: I use seven to fifty as a threshold. I think
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: the OPS is what matters the most. Batting average. I
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: don't even know what threshold I would use batting average now,
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: because I grew up through the nineties when batting averages
• 29:16
  Speaker 6: are all higher and Major League Baseball is trying to
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: do all these things to make the game more exciting
• 29:22
  Speaker 6: and offensive, and everybody's batting average is completely in the
• 29:24
  Speaker 6: fucking tank. It's so fucking stupid. Dude, bring back steroids.
• 29:30
  Speaker 6: Warren six strikeouts, two walks against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: is going with Ian Seymour, and I will tell you
• 29:37
  Speaker 6: that if you want to play this game, I think
• 29:38
  Speaker 6: you should pick Warren must start, but don't select a
• 29:41
  Speaker 6: Tampa starter because it is going to be Seymour in
• 29:44
  Speaker 6: this game. But they've used an opener in front of
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: them multiple times, so Tampa Bay may be putting an
• 29:50
  Speaker 6: opener in front of him again. So I'm just gonna
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: warn you about that. I mean again, this is what
• 29:54
  Speaker 6: happens in baseball.
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 29:56
  Speaker 6: He might start, but he might not. Seymour has actually
• 29:59
  Speaker 6: been fairly good for Dude, Tampa. I don't know what
• 30:01
  Speaker 6: the deal is. They must have good pitching coaching because
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: they seem to get the most out of every one
• 30:06
  Speaker 6: of their starters. Like you look at their starting rotation,
• 30:09
  Speaker 6: You're like, who are these guys?
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: And most of them pitched pretty well.
• 30:13
  Speaker 6: Four point h two ERA, one point zero nine whip
• 30:16
  Speaker 6: is quite good. He's been really good at home two
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: point seven to three home ERA. Really good in his
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: last two starts, but they were both against Kansas City.
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: He went twelve and two thirds innings and only gave
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: up three hits in one run, had fifteen strikeouts and
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: two walks.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: But it was against Kansas City, so you know, you
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: gotta dial it back a little bit. But one of
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: those games was on the road, where.
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: It's more difficult to a pitch, and Kansas City hits
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: better at home, so give him some credit for that.
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: He was pitching out of a bullpen a lot earlier
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: in the season. But overall, he does have a low
• 30:50
  Speaker 6: hit rate, his walk rate is too high, his strikeout
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: rate is actually fairly high against the Yankees. His numbers
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: are a little bit all over the place in twenty
• 30:59
  Speaker 6: seven at ten strikeouts one walk that's good to twenty
• 31:03
  Speaker 6: two average allowed, that's good.
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: But they've hit him for power.
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: Bellinger and Ben Rice both have home runs off him
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: eight h six ops.
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: But in a case like this.
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: I don't know, man, I mean, the home runs seem
• 31:14
  Speaker 6: a little bit fluky to me because it's not a
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: big sample size. I think the strikeout walk ratio in
• 31:19
  Speaker 6: the batting average tell more of the story here than
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: the ops does. So I don't know, man, I don't
• 31:26
  Speaker 6: necessarily think that Seymour matches up that badly there. The
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: other thing to consider is that Tampa Bay is really
• 31:31
  Speaker 6: good at home this year. They're thirty one and thirteen
• 31:34
  Speaker 6: at home. That's good, although the Yankees have been pretty
• 31:36
  Speaker 6: good on the road twenty seven and twenty. But Tampa
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: Bay has one of the best home records, maybe the
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: best in baseball.
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: And I believe Tampa Bay swept.
• 31:46
  Speaker 6: The Yankees in this stadium earlier this season, so the
• 31:49
  Speaker 6: Yankees had not won in Tampa Bay until yesterday this year.
• 31:54
  Speaker 6: So some things of note in this game. I believe
• 31:58
  Speaker 6: the money is backing Tampa Bay here because the Yankees
• 32:01
  Speaker 6: usually get public action. But I told you that yesterday
• 32:04
  Speaker 6: the Yankees were not public, but it seems like it's now. Oh,
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: the Yankees just beat Tampa Bay, so the Yankees must
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: be back, even though Will Warren is not Cam Schlitzler.
• 32:13
  Speaker 6: You know, I don't think Will Warren is gonna go
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: eight innings and allow one run on three hits or
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: whatever Schlitzler did yesterday. Fifty four percent of them tickets
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: on Yankees on the Yankees, eighty nine percent of the
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: cash on Tampa Bay. So the money is strongly indicating
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: on Tampa Bay. Here they're at like minus one eighteen.
• 32:33
  Speaker 6: I don't have a feel for it. The money's also
• 32:35
  Speaker 6: back in the over. I could see the argument for
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: the over just because both both starting pitchers don't really
• 32:42
  Speaker 6: have good ops is against them with his matchups, so
• 32:45
  Speaker 6: the over eight.
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: Might be worth considering. I think maybe that's I don't know.
• 32:51
  Speaker 6: If I was gonna give out anything on this game,
• 32:53
  Speaker 6: maybe that would be what makes the most sense. But
• 32:55
  Speaker 6: obviously I don't love this game. I do slightly agree
• 32:59
  Speaker 6: with Tampa as well. I mean, I think they do
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: have a slight starting pitching edge. Year could be in
• 33:04
  Speaker 6: the bounce back spot, like I said after losing the
• 33:07
  Speaker 6: return home spot.
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: That tends to be a strong bounce back spot.
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: But if you're gonna play Tampa, I think I would
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: limit it to first five innings though, because they do
• 33:14
  Speaker 6: not have a bullpen advantage.
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: So I think Tampa.
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: First five maybe is worth a look. But I don't
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: know the over makes more sense to me. I think
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: in that one, I'm not gonna do it though, And
• 33:24
  Speaker 6: yesterday's game was very low scoring, but maybe that's a
• 33:27
  Speaker 6: better indicator towards an over here. And you know, it's
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: a different pitching matchup this time, all right, although Seymour
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: and Jacks are probably pretty similar to each other Seattle
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: in Miami. Man, I took a look at this game,
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: and this game just screams under to me based on
• 33:43
  Speaker 6: the starting pitching. But then I started digging into it
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: and I'm like, yeah, I don't really want to do that.
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 33:50
  Speaker 6: Both these teams are off yesterday, so that helps with
• 33:53
  Speaker 6: an under in my opinion, because the bullpens get to rest,
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: the offense is might cool off a little bit. These
• 33:58
  Speaker 6: offenses aren't really that good and uner Seattle is still
• 34:02
  Speaker 6: struggling twenty fifth in offense. Miami has moved up, but
• 34:04
  Speaker 6: Miami's actually sixth. But I don't think they're that good.
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: And I'm gonna, you know, I'm gonna warn against Miami's
• 34:12
  Speaker 6: offense here because Miami just their offensive numbers just all
• 34:16
  Speaker 6: got skewed because they're coming back from a road trip
• 34:19
  Speaker 6: where they played Incourse Field and in the Athletics Stadium.
• 34:22
  Speaker 6: So obviously that's gonna pad any team's offensive numbers, you
• 34:26
  Speaker 6: know what I mean, when you play in the two
• 34:28
  Speaker 6: most offensive stadiums in baseball. Now that they're back home
• 34:31
  Speaker 6: in a pitcher friendly ballpark, I don't see Miami's offense
• 34:34
  Speaker 6: doing nearly as much damage here. So a lot of
• 34:39
  Speaker 6: things lining up towards an under here. Miami did return
• 34:41
  Speaker 6: home from a long road trip, but they went to
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis first, then Colorado and the A's, So I
• 34:47
  Speaker 6: don't like the spot for Miami returning home from a
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: long road trip. You know, I talk about it can
• 34:52
  Speaker 6: be a you know, a pretty major a distraction spot.
• 34:55
  Speaker 6: They did just sweep the A's on the road, which
• 34:57
  Speaker 6: is a decent sweep for Miami there. Don't know that
• 35:01
  Speaker 6: they're going to overlook Seattle necessarily though, because Seattle is
• 35:03
  Speaker 6: still a pretty good team, but still it's an inter
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: league game.
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: I don't think.
• 35:07
  Speaker 6: I don't know how much it really means to Miami. Miami,
• 35:10
  Speaker 6: by the way, they're not doing too bad right now.
• 35:12
  Speaker 6: They're in the NL East race here, and I believe
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: if the playoffs started right now, I think Miami would
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: be in, which is kind of ridiculous to think about,
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: but Miami not playing too badly this year things to consider.
• 35:25
  Speaker 6: Although I think Seattle is still better than they are,
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: but Miami has been good at home. Seattle is not
• 35:30
  Speaker 6: particularly good on the road. Seattle is starting to move
• 35:33
  Speaker 6: up a little bit. They are leading the AL West.
• 35:35
  Speaker 6: They're starting a road trip, and you know, I talk
• 35:37
  Speaker 6: about that being a positive. A lot of times your
• 35:40
  Speaker 6: turn you start a road trip, A lot of times
• 35:42
  Speaker 6: you are focused for that first game.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: They're traveling across country.
• 35:45
  Speaker 6: But I always talk about how it's easier for a
• 35:47
  Speaker 6: West Coast team to go east than vice versa, because
• 35:50
  Speaker 6: it's basically just like you're playing an after noon game
• 35:53
  Speaker 6: on your biological clock, which is easier to do. I mean,
• 35:56
  Speaker 6: you play a lot of afternoon baseball, so throughout the
• 35:59
  Speaker 6: Sea and Seattle's coming off two shutouts of Toronto though,
• 36:04
  Speaker 6: so you know, I don't know if that would put
• 36:06
  Speaker 6: them in any sort of letdown, but I think the
• 36:07
  Speaker 6: scheduling spot is better for Seattle here. Now, as far
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: as the bullpen's here, they're both rested, and I think
• 36:15
  Speaker 6: they're both pretty good bullpens. Miami's third, Seattle's sixteenth, but
• 36:19
  Speaker 6: their era.
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: Is better than that.
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: I don't think Miami is quite as good as third,
• 36:23
  Speaker 6: but they're a pretty good bullpen. And you know that,
• 36:26
  Speaker 6: just like I said, with their offensive numbers got skewed
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: during that road trip, their bullpen numbers also got skewed
• 36:32
  Speaker 6: towards the negative pitching in those stadiums. Starting pitching here,
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: Brian Wu is pitching for Seattle, so you can see
• 36:38
  Speaker 6: why I was thinking this could be an under here.
• 36:41
  Speaker 6: I think Wu is better than his era would suggest
• 36:44
  Speaker 6: four point one seven era, but his whip is one
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: point oh three, and we've seen what he's done throughout
• 36:49
  Speaker 6: his career so far. We know that he's good. He's
• 36:52
  Speaker 6: gotten a little bit unlucky this year, however. Wu has
• 36:55
  Speaker 6: been really bad on the road, a six point three
• 36:58
  Speaker 6: to eight road ray this year. He usually does not
• 37:01
  Speaker 6: have numbers that are this extreme. Like last year. I'm
• 37:04
  Speaker 6: pretty sure he was worse on the road, but it
• 37:06
  Speaker 6: wasn't this extreme like that's crazy. It makes sense that
• 37:09
  Speaker 6: he pitches better at home because it's a pitcher friendly park,
• 37:12
  Speaker 6: but so is Miami, so maybe he could pitch well
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: here even though he is bound on the road. I
• 37:18
  Speaker 6: don't know if I quite want to jump in and
• 37:20
  Speaker 6: back Wu on the road here. Wu was struggling a bit.
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: He had a bad month of June, although he did
• 37:26
  Speaker 6: have a good start last time out against Anaheim, so
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: maybe he's rounding back in a form. I'm not too
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: concerned with him, though, just because we know what he
• 37:35
  Speaker 6: is at this point, and we know how good he is.
• 37:37
  Speaker 6: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate high
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: not really a high strike out rate, but almost one
• 37:41
  Speaker 6: per inning, which I think is about what you get
• 37:44
  Speaker 6: out of him usually.
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: So his numbers are still pretty good. Here.
• 37:49
  Speaker 6: Miami has never seen him before, so I think that
• 37:51
  Speaker 6: does help him. I'm kind of surprised by that, but
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: I mean they are in different leagues. Although Wu's been
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: around for I don't know, three four years, so kind
• 37:59
  Speaker 6: of has that Nobody in this lineup has faced him,
• 38:02
  Speaker 6: but that should be an extra advantage to Woo because
• 38:04
  Speaker 6: I talk about when these talented pitchers go up against
• 38:07
  Speaker 6: an offense that hasn't faced them, the pitcher tends to
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: have the advantage. On the other side, Max Meyer's pitching,
• 38:13
  Speaker 6: so he is Miami's best pitcher. He's been really good
• 38:16
  Speaker 6: this year. Two point five to three e RA, one
• 38:19
  Speaker 6: point one to one whip that's pretty good. Better at
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: home to two point one to three home y RA,
• 38:24
  Speaker 6: so he's in the better of his home roads with
• 38:26
  Speaker 6: He finally took a loss in Colorado and it wasn't
• 38:29
  Speaker 6: even his fault.
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: That was his first loss of the.
• 38:32
  Speaker 6: Season, and four unearned runs got scored against him. So
• 38:35
  Speaker 6: it's like, hey, thanks guys, thanks for helping me out.
• 38:39
  Speaker 6: Assuming that it wasn't him making the errors, which usually
• 38:41
  Speaker 6: it's not the pitcher, but yeah, so he pitched better
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: than it looks like in that game. Meyer has been
• 38:48
  Speaker 6: good man. I mean he's allowed uh more than two
• 38:51
  Speaker 6: earned runs more than three earned runs only twice all season,
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: let's put it that way. He's got a low hit rate,
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: low pretty low walk rate, high strikeout rate, all good
• 39:01
  Speaker 6: numbers across the board from him. His numbers against Seattle
• 39:05
  Speaker 6: are weird thirteen at bats against him. They have six
• 39:07
  Speaker 6: hitters who have faced him two thirty one average five
• 39:10
  Speaker 6: to one strike out walk ratio.
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: All that sounds good.
• 39:13
  Speaker 6: However, they do have a nine to seventy eight ops
• 39:16
  Speaker 6: against it because Naylor and the Big Dumper.
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: Each have a home run off him.
• 39:22
  Speaker 6: Maybe that's a little bit concerning, but it's such a
• 39:24
  Speaker 6: small sample size, and you know, I talked about how
• 39:26
  Speaker 6: that's a little bit fluky with home runs like that.
• 39:29
  Speaker 6: Do I think Meyer's actually gonna pitch poorly here?
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: No?
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: I don't, So I still think the under is probably
• 39:36
  Speaker 6: the way to look at it. I just have some
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: concerns with it. And the money is really against it.
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: Sixty five percent of tickets on the under, eighty one
• 39:43
  Speaker 6: percent of the cash on the over, So the market
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: reid is strongly indicating on the over, which doesn't make
• 39:50
  Speaker 6: sense to me. I still think under is probably the
• 39:53
  Speaker 6: best approach here. Again, you got offensive that might have
• 39:56
  Speaker 6: cooled off with the rest rested bullpens that are both
• 39:58
  Speaker 6: pretty good, two good starting pitchers generally, and you know,
• 40:03
  Speaker 6: just a couple of concerns or Wu is really bad
• 40:05
  Speaker 6: on the road and Meyer has given up some power
• 40:08
  Speaker 6: hitting to Seattle. Those are the only issues. Total is eight,
• 40:12
  Speaker 6: which is pretty reasonable. So yeah, I think the under
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: is still probably the better way to play that. And
• 40:18
  Speaker 6: I thought this was gonna make my card until I
• 40:20
  Speaker 6: started digging into the numbers and I really didn't like
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: it that much. And the market read is obviously against me.
• 40:26
  Speaker 6: The money is also indicating on Miami. I don't really
• 40:28
  Speaker 6: like that either. Fifty six percent of tickets ninety percent
• 40:31
  Speaker 6: of the cash on Miami at minus one sixteen or so.
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: I don't think I like that. I mean, Meyer has
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: been a little bit better than Wu.
• 40:39
  Speaker 6: Yes, Wu is better than his RARA suggests, though I
• 40:43
  Speaker 6: know his road split looks bad, but he's I think
• 40:45
  Speaker 6: he might have the better matchup because he's totally unfamiliar
• 40:48
  Speaker 6: to Miami and Seattle has been able to have some
• 40:51
  Speaker 6: success against Meyer. Plus it's a really bad spot for Miami,
• 40:54
  Speaker 6: the return home spot, Seattle's starting a road trips. I'm
• 40:57
  Speaker 6: gonna slightly lean to Seattle in that game, and also
• 41:01
  Speaker 6: I think maybe their bullpens a little bit underrated too,
• 41:05
  Speaker 6: but that game is not making the cut for me.
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: Houston and Washington this game, I was correct.
• 41:11
  Speaker 6: With my read yesterday, I said, over in the game yesterday,
• 41:14
  Speaker 6: I should have just given it out.
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: I mean, it seemed obvious.
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: Both starting pitchers were awful, both bullpens are untrustworthy, and
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: that game went way over the total. It was a
• 41:23
  Speaker 6: twelve eleven Washington win. Really really ridiculous the game. The
• 41:28
  Speaker 6: game was over in the third inning. The game had
• 41:31
  Speaker 6: already gone over the total in the third inning. It
• 41:33
  Speaker 6: was it was six to six in the third inning.
• 41:36
  Speaker 6: I was like, yep, I should have given out of the
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: over in that one. It would have been one of
• 41:40
  Speaker 6: the easiest wins you'll get Washington.
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: It was at least an opinion for me.
• 41:46
  Speaker 6: But you know, a lot of times, like I said,
• 41:48
  Speaker 6: I'll have really good opinions on the show that don't
• 41:50
  Speaker 6: wind up making the cut for me. Washington only us
• 41:53
  Speaker 6: one relief pitcher in that game, but they are bad
• 41:57
  Speaker 6: in the bullpen. Houston is better but maybe totally trustworthy
• 42:01
  Speaker 6: these three relief pitchers. Houston has moved up. They're seventeenth.
• 42:05
  Speaker 6: They're more of a mid tier bullpen at this point.
• 42:07
  Speaker 6: Washington bad at twenty six. But you know, I mean,
• 42:11
  Speaker 6: that shouldn't really detract you from maybe considering another row
• 42:14
  Speaker 6: over here, but I don't think it's as good in
• 42:16
  Speaker 6: this game as it was yesterday. Washington is a good offense.
• 42:20
  Speaker 6: They're third, Houston thirteenth. Washington, I believe, plays a lot
• 42:23
  Speaker 6: of high scoring games at home. They give up a
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: lot of runs at home. Washington does this starting pitching
• 42:30
  Speaker 6: matchup again. This is not as like monstrously ugly as
• 42:35
  Speaker 6: it was yesterday, but this is a very unpredictable pitching matchup.
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: Houston's going with Tatsuya e Mai. This guy, dude, I
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: think this guy is just like he's just completely unpredictable,
• 42:47
  Speaker 6: Like he could give you like one of the best
• 42:49
  Speaker 6: performances you've ever seen, or he could be an absolute
• 42:52
  Speaker 6: dumpster fire one start to the next. Like this guy
• 42:55
  Speaker 6: is almost unbettable because you have no idea what's gonna
• 42:58
  Speaker 6: happen when he's on the mound. His numbers don't look
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: good obviously, six point one four ERA, one point four
• 43:03
  Speaker 6: to seven Whip. He is better on the road seven
• 43:06
  Speaker 6: point twenty four or four point twenty four Roady Ira
• 43:11
  Speaker 6: compared to seven point nine two at home. He had
• 43:14
  Speaker 6: two really good starts at the end of June Cleveland
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: and Detroit, and he just destroyed them with twenty one
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: strikeouts total in one walk.
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: Then what did he do against Minnesota last time out?
• 43:25
  Speaker 6: Yeah, he was awful. He didn't even make it out
• 43:27
  Speaker 6: of the second inning. You walk five guys, Like, how
• 43:30
  Speaker 6: can you predict a guy like this? Like he's pitching
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: like an ace two games in a row. The game
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: before that, he didn't even make it out of the
• 43:36
  Speaker 6: first inning and he was absolute, absolute trash. And then
• 43:39
  Speaker 6: again he had just an absolutely horrible start against Minnesota.
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: Yeah, like, what do you do with a guy like this?
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: I have no clue.
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: Washington's never faced it before, so he might have an
• 43:50
  Speaker 6: advantage in that they're unfamiliar with him. But some of
• 43:53
  Speaker 6: these offenses that haven't been familiar with him have completely
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: roughed him up. So I have no idea what you're
• 43:58
  Speaker 6: gonna what you're gonna get out of him here. Now,
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: what I will say is his two really good starts
• 44:03
  Speaker 6: there were against week offenses Cleveland and Detroit. Washington is
• 44:07
  Speaker 6: not a week offense, So I will say that, So
• 44:10
  Speaker 6: I do lean more towards Emi not pitching well. Here
• 44:13
  Speaker 6: Andrew Alvarez is pitching for Washington. He's been okay, he's
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: got a three point zero five v R, but his
• 44:21
  Speaker 6: whip suggests that he's not really that good one point
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: three to eight whip. He's been not so good at
• 44:27
  Speaker 6: home three point five two ERA at home, which I mean,
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: it's still not a bad era. What's weird is he
• 44:33
  Speaker 6: did not make it five innings last time out against
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: the Red Sox, but he got a win. So I
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: guess he must have not started that game. I guess
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: they must have put an opener in front of him,
• 44:43
  Speaker 6: unless Major League Baseball change their rules, because I'm pretty
• 44:46
  Speaker 6: sure a starter.
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they put Brad Lord in front of them.
• 44:50
  Speaker 6: That's why, because a starter has to go five innings
• 44:53
  Speaker 6: to qualify for a win. So I was like, how
• 44:54
  Speaker 6: did he get a win in that start? It wasn't
• 44:57
  Speaker 6: a start. That's how Alvarez was good in that out
• 45:00
  Speaker 6: against the Red Sox though, And that was a bad
• 45:03
  Speaker 6: game somehow.
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: Peyton totally got absolutely destroyed.
• 45:07
  Speaker 6: In that game and he's pitching today, so I'm gonna
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: talk about him in a little bit. But Alvarez, I mean,
• 45:11
  Speaker 6: he's been okay, but he doesn't go deep into games.
• 45:14
  Speaker 6: And again, obviously because they put an opener in front
• 45:16
  Speaker 6: of him before they might put an opener in front
• 45:19
  Speaker 6: of him.
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: In him, they might put an opener.
• 45:22
  Speaker 6: In him, Oh god, in front of him again in
• 45:25
  Speaker 6: this game. So be aware of that that if you're
• 45:27
  Speaker 6: gonna play this game, you should probably pick Emi must start,
• 45:31
  Speaker 6: But don't select a Washington starter because it will be Alvarez.
• 45:34
  Speaker 6: But they may put an opener in front of him,
• 45:36
  Speaker 6: would be my assumption here. He's been pitching okay though,
• 45:40
  Speaker 6: but he typically he only he goes like four innings
• 45:43
  Speaker 6: basically typically, so he has not gone five innings in
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: any any appearance this season. He's got a mediocre hit rate,
• 45:50
  Speaker 6: his walk rate is not really that good.
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: Strike out raid is pretty good though.
• 45:54
  Speaker 6: He does strike out a decent amount of guys, so
• 45:56
  Speaker 6: he does have some stuff that can fool hitters. Houston
• 45:59
  Speaker 6: has never really seen him except for Nick al and
• 46:01
  Speaker 6: it was over one with a walk against him. Again,
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: this is a very, very unpredictable matchup though I know
• 46:08
  Speaker 6: both pitchers do have you know, both pictures have unfamiliarity here.
• 46:15
  Speaker 6: I'm not sure that's gonna be enough. I still probably
• 46:17
  Speaker 6: lean over. I mean, this series just feels like it's
• 46:20
  Speaker 6: gonna be an over series. Although Yesterday's was just I
• 46:24
  Speaker 6: should have given it out as a play. Yesterday's was
• 46:26
  Speaker 6: just more obviously an over to me. But sometimes the
• 46:29
  Speaker 6: obvious is not the way that you want to go.
• 46:32
  Speaker 6: Sixty one percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the
• 46:34
  Speaker 6: cash on the over. But yeah, if it's too obvious,
• 46:37
  Speaker 6: that might mean, like if it looks too easy, it usually.
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: Is, you know what I mean.
• 46:41
  Speaker 6: Like I gave out some obvious unders that didn't happen recently,
• 46:45
  Speaker 6: although that Mizierowski one that I mentioned at the top
• 46:47
  Speaker 6: of the show, that was a bullshit loss.
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: We should have had that under in that one. Anyway.
• 46:54
  Speaker 6: Yeah, the money's coming in on the over. The totals
• 46:56
  Speaker 6: at nine, so it's right on that key number nine.
• 46:58
  Speaker 6: I still think I'd probably lean that way. Money is
• 47:02
  Speaker 6: coming in on Washington sixty six percent of ticket, seventy
• 47:05
  Speaker 6: seven percent of the cash on Washington at about minus
• 47:08
  Speaker 6: one to eighteen or so. I think if you play
• 47:10
  Speaker 6: Washington you should probably avoid their bullpen, though, because their bullpen,
• 47:14
  Speaker 6: obviously we know, is not very good at all.
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: Uh So maybe Washington first five you can.
• 47:19
  Speaker 6: Take Alvarez to outpitch Emi or Alvarez plus their opener
• 47:23
  Speaker 6: or whatever to outpitch him. I don't know, man, I
• 47:26
  Speaker 6: think over makes the most sense in that game, but
• 47:28
  Speaker 6: it's a really difficult game to figure out.
• 47:31
  Speaker 5: Kansas City and the Mets.
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: Now, these teams both played yesterday, but the Mets are
• 47:36
  Speaker 6: returning home from a road trip where they went to
• 47:38
  Speaker 6: Toronto and Atlanta, and they beat at Lanta the last
• 47:41
  Speaker 6: two games in dramatic fashion, including doing it yesterday and
• 47:44
  Speaker 6: extra innings. This looks like a bad spot to me
• 47:47
  Speaker 6: for the Mets. That was a huge win for them
• 47:49
  Speaker 6: yesterday and extra innings dramatic win. Now they return home
• 47:53
  Speaker 6: from a road trip on top of that with no
• 47:55
  Speaker 6: days off, so you know, I talk about the road
• 47:58
  Speaker 6: trip return being distraction, distraction, whatever, and they're playing an
• 48:03
  Speaker 6: American League team and one of the worst Kansas City. Yeah,
• 48:07
  Speaker 6: this is not a good spot for the Mets. The
• 48:10
  Speaker 6: Mets are also going with a bullpen game. I'm pretty
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: sure because I looked back through their rotation and it
• 48:16
  Speaker 6: was supposed to be whoever was next up in the
• 48:19
  Speaker 6: rotation they already used like they've been They've been using
• 48:22
  Speaker 6: guys on short rest, like they move Nolan McClain up
• 48:26
  Speaker 6: in the rotation. I think maybe because they had an
• 48:28
  Speaker 6: extra day off in there somewhere, so McClain pitched a
• 48:31
  Speaker 6: day before he was actually supposed to. So I think
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: the Mets might be going with a bullpen game here,
• 48:36
  Speaker 6: which of course looks worse even although their bullpen isn't
• 48:40
  Speaker 6: really that bad. But you do have to look at
• 48:43
  Speaker 6: the rest scenario here. The Mets did use a ton
• 48:46
  Speaker 6: of relief pitchers yesterday because again that was an extra
• 48:49
  Speaker 6: inning game. They use six relief pitchers, So even though
• 48:52
  Speaker 6: their bullpen's pretty good, that's not a good sign. You know,
• 48:56
  Speaker 6: they're better relievers won't be available here.
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: That's not good. Kansas City, though, they just don't have
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: a good bullpen. Kansas City.
• 49:03
  Speaker 6: Who's three relief pitchers yesterday. Kansas City, by the way,
• 49:07
  Speaker 6: they're starting a road trip, which normally I would say
• 49:09
  Speaker 6: that's a good spot, that's a focused spot. But Kansas
• 49:12
  Speaker 6: City just had a ridiculous win yesterday. They absolutely unloaded
• 49:16
  Speaker 6: on Christopher Sanchez yesterday and won the game fifteen to one.
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: My opinion in that game was to go over the total.
• 49:24
  Speaker 6: If you remember my analysis of that. Sanchez actually had
• 49:27
  Speaker 6: bad numbers against the Royals, and he's not as good
• 49:30
  Speaker 6: on the road. But did I expect Sanchez to give
• 49:32
  Speaker 6: up like nine runs in three innings. No, obviously I didn't.
• 49:36
  Speaker 6: So Kansas City that was a big win from them,
• 49:38
  Speaker 6: man beating you know, a cy young contender and just
• 49:41
  Speaker 6: absolutely drilling him like that. Kansas City might be in
• 49:44
  Speaker 6: a little bit of a letdown. Two. However, I think
• 49:46
  Speaker 6: the spot is clearly worse for the Mets because it's
• 49:49
  Speaker 6: a return home spot spot plus coming off a huge
• 49:52
  Speaker 6: rivalry win, So the spot's worse for the Mets. Plus
• 49:55
  Speaker 6: it's a bullpen game, plus their bullpen is used up.
• 49:58
  Speaker 6: None of that looks good, although I'd still avoid Kansas
• 50:01
  Speaker 6: City's bullpen.
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 50:03
  Speaker 6: Mets are number four in bullpen. I think they're good,
• 50:06
  Speaker 6: but maybe not that good. Kansas City is dead last
• 50:09
  Speaker 6: in bullpen, although their ERA is a little bit better
• 50:12
  Speaker 6: than Minnesota's.
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: But they are bad, really bad offensively.
• 50:17
  Speaker 6: Kansas City's twentieth tied with Philly hilarious, and the Mets
• 50:21
  Speaker 6: are twenty eighth tied with Cleveland.
• 50:24
  Speaker 5: Not good.
• 50:25
  Speaker 6: So neither offense has really been that good. Kansas City's
• 50:28
  Speaker 6: offensive numbers really really drop on the road. Kansas City,
• 50:32
  Speaker 6: at least we know who's starting for them. Set Lugo.
• 50:35
  Speaker 6: So when I did all my analysis for this, I
• 50:37
  Speaker 6: was leaning fairly strongly in the direction of the Royals
• 50:40
  Speaker 6: in this game. But I don't want their bullpen with Lugo.
• 50:44
  Speaker 6: I mean, Lugo is okay. Four point two ERA and
• 50:46
  Speaker 6: one point three to eight whip is not great. He
• 50:49
  Speaker 6: isn't as good on the road though, so even with
• 50:51
  Speaker 6: Kaufman Stadium's walls being moved in, he's still pitching better
• 50:56
  Speaker 6: at home. He's got a four point seventy three road ERA.
• 50:59
  Speaker 6: He's a bit which, okay, I get well.
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 51:02
  Speaker 6: His last start was good against Tampa Bay. That's an
• 51:05
  Speaker 6: Eastern sign, but he was bad against Tampa Bay the
• 51:07
  Speaker 6: start before that. Really didn't have a good month of
• 51:10
  Speaker 6: June at all. So I don't really know what to
• 51:12
  Speaker 6: think about Lugo right now. And of course the advanced
• 51:15
  Speaker 6: analytics guys don't like him, and I'm not using advanced analytics,
• 51:19
  Speaker 6: but even I could see that his numbers really aren't
• 51:21
  Speaker 6: that good. His hit rate is too high, his walk
• 51:23
  Speaker 6: rate is not really that great, and his strike gout
• 51:26
  Speaker 6: rate is low. So I don't really like what I
• 51:27
  Speaker 6: see with these numbers, really, But then I was thinking, well,
• 51:30
  Speaker 6: he's pitching against the Mets, though, like that should be
• 51:33
  Speaker 6: a pretty good matchup for him.
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: Right, not necessarily.
• 51:37
  Speaker 6: They have twenty eight at bats against and they do
• 51:38
  Speaker 6: only have four guys who have faced him. But they
• 51:41
  Speaker 6: have seven strikeouts, eight walks, a two point fifty average,
• 51:44
  Speaker 6: and seven to seventy four ohps, so they have gotten
• 51:47
  Speaker 6: Tolugo a little bit. But what I will say is
• 51:49
  Speaker 6: that pretty much all of that has won Sodo though
• 51:51
  Speaker 6: He's five for nineteen with a home run and six
• 51:54
  Speaker 6: of the walks, So a lot of their lineup is
• 51:56
  Speaker 6: unfamiliar to Lugo, and if he could pitch around Sodo,
• 52:00
  Speaker 6: he should pitch well enough here in my opinion, So
• 52:04
  Speaker 6: I do think that Lugo should have a decent matchup here.
• 52:07
  Speaker 6: Plus he's going up against a Met bullpen game, I think,
• 52:10
  Speaker 6: which probably won't go well. So I still think the
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: way to play this game is to take the Royals
• 52:16
  Speaker 6: in the first five. And I considered this. I almost
• 52:19
  Speaker 6: put it on my card. The money is backing the
• 52:22
  Speaker 6: Mets with an undecided starter, and it's not gonna be
• 52:25
  Speaker 6: Manaiah because he pitched two days ago. So I don't
• 52:28
  Speaker 6: know what they're gonna do here, fifty nine percent of tickets,
• 52:31
  Speaker 6: eighty eight percent of the cash on the Mets. I
• 52:33
  Speaker 6: really it's crazy to me that the money seems to
• 52:36
  Speaker 6: be backing the Mets right now.
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: It might change as the day goes on. So that's
• 52:40
  Speaker 5: the thing.
• 52:41
  Speaker 6: I rely mostly on my handicapping more than the market reader,
• 52:44
  Speaker 6: though I use the market read as kind of a guide,
• 52:46
  Speaker 6: and I do like it if the market matches up
• 52:50
  Speaker 6: with what I'm saying. You know, the Mets are favored
• 52:54
  Speaker 6: at minus one fifty something, which is crazy. Like, I know, dude,
• 52:59
  Speaker 6: I know the Mets better than the record looks, and
• 53:01
  Speaker 6: obviously the oddsmakers are telling you that. But like, should
• 53:05
  Speaker 6: the Mets really be favored by that amount even against
• 53:08
  Speaker 6: the bad Kansas City team when you don't even know
• 53:11
  Speaker 6: who their starting pitcher is gonna be and it's not
• 53:13
  Speaker 6: gonna be Nolan McClain and they're in a return home
• 53:16
  Speaker 6: spot off a huge win again, a dramatic extra innings win. Yeah,
• 53:21
  Speaker 6: I just don't see it, man. I think Kansas City
• 53:23
  Speaker 6: is the right way to look here. I would play
• 53:25
  Speaker 6: Kansas City in the first five. Actually, I think you
• 53:28
  Speaker 6: could take them plus a half run in the first five.
• 53:31
  Speaker 6: That's what I would do in this game, avoid their bullpen.
• 53:34
  Speaker 6: But Kansas City plus a half run in the first five,
• 53:37
  Speaker 6: that was one of the ones that I liked better
• 53:40
  Speaker 6: on this board. Actually, so and if you do that,
• 53:43
  Speaker 6: you're gonna pick Lougo must start. But obviously you can't
• 53:45
  Speaker 6: pick a starter for the Mets, so it'll be action
• 53:48
  Speaker 6: on that side. But I think that's the way to
• 53:51
  Speaker 6: play that game right now, Garrett, what's up? No, I
• 53:55
  Speaker 6: don't do it. I'm too selective. I don't want to
• 53:57
  Speaker 6: splash the board like that.
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: You don't. You don't want to have that much variants,
• 54:04
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean? Like you do.
• 54:05
  Speaker 6: You do not want to put yourself in a spot
• 54:07
  Speaker 6: where you could potentially lose like ten grand in a
• 54:11
  Speaker 6: single day, you know what I mean? Like you want
• 54:13
  Speaker 6: to have like at most, maybe like a couple grand
• 54:16
  Speaker 6: on the line in one day if you're betting sort
• 54:19
  Speaker 6: of the amounts that I do, which is betting to
• 54:22
  Speaker 6: win three hundred a game. So yeah, yeah, I mean
• 54:27
  Speaker 6: I recommend against that, but you know, I mean, it's
• 54:29
  Speaker 6: still good that you know my thoughts are correct on
• 54:32
  Speaker 6: a lot of these games. I'm gonna have to take
• 54:35
  Speaker 6: a break soon. My voice is still killing me here,
• 54:37
  Speaker 6: but I usually do it with five games left to go.
• 54:41
  Speaker 6: I think one more game and then I'll do it,
• 54:43
  Speaker 6: maybe because I already talked about this doubleheader, which we
• 54:46
  Speaker 6: still don't even know is gonna pitch in the second
• 54:49
  Speaker 6: game there with Milwaukee and Saint Louis. So if you
• 54:52
  Speaker 6: go to the top of the show, I talked about
• 54:53
  Speaker 6: the double header, but it's really really difficult to figure
• 54:56
  Speaker 6: out anything that's going on in that series, all right,
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: So I'm gonna do two more games, I guess, and
• 55:03
  Speaker 6: then I'll take a break.
• 55:04
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia at Cincinnati.
• 55:05
  Speaker 6: Philadelphia is at a rest disadvantage because they played yesterday,
• 55:09
  Speaker 6: but they got blasted by Kansas City and it was
• 55:11
  Speaker 6: an afternoon game, so that will help them out a
• 55:13
  Speaker 6: little bit. But Cincinnati didn't play yesterday and they're staying
• 55:17
  Speaker 6: at home, so even though it could be a bounce
• 55:19
  Speaker 6: back spot for Philadelphia, Philadelphia, by the way, is pretty
• 55:22
  Speaker 6: good on the road. They're above five hundred on the road.
• 55:24
  Speaker 6: Cincinnati's below five hundred at home. But Cincinnati has the
• 55:28
  Speaker 6: rest advantage and they're staying at home, so Cincinnati.
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: Does have some advantages here.
• 55:35
  Speaker 6: They do not have a bullpen advantage, and if the
• 55:37
  Speaker 6: starting pitching is correct on ESPN here, they do not
• 55:41
  Speaker 6: have a starting pitching edge either, although when I looked
• 55:45
  Speaker 6: earlier it was undecided for Philly.
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Philly is undecided right now, so.
• 55:49
  Speaker 6: That makes it way more difficult tho though you can
• 55:51
  Speaker 6: play this game right now, and the fact that Philly
• 55:53
  Speaker 6: is favored at like minus one seventy something that tells
• 55:57
  Speaker 6: me that it is expected to still be Wheeler.
• 56:00
  Speaker 5: In this game. So do with that info what you want.
• 56:02
  Speaker 6: But they haven't officially decided that yet, but based on
• 56:05
  Speaker 6: the number that's on Philly here, I think it is
• 56:08
  Speaker 6: going to be Wheeler here. So as far as the
• 56:13
  Speaker 6: bullpen's here, Philly used four relief pitchers yesterday, so they
• 56:16
  Speaker 6: do have a bullpen rest disadvantage here, but Cincinnati's bullpen
• 56:20
  Speaker 6: is pretty unbackable at twenty eighth thoughough Philly has been
• 56:23
  Speaker 6: bad recently, out of the bullpen, they're all the way
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: down to eighteenth and they're unrested. So the bullpen advantage
• 56:29
  Speaker 6: I think Philly would normally have here is not very pronounced.
• 56:33
  Speaker 6: At the very least offensively, neither team has been that good.
• 56:37
  Speaker 6: Philly is twentieth, Cincinnati twenty fourth. That's not good. Philadelphia
• 56:42
  Speaker 6: presumably is still going with Zach Wheeler here.
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: He's been really good. A two point three six ERA
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: point nine to four whip.
• 56:49
  Speaker 6: Started the season late because he was coming off an injury,
• 56:51
  Speaker 6: but he picked back like he picked back up right
• 56:54
  Speaker 6: where he left off.
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: Really good stuff, really good on the road.
• 56:57
  Speaker 6: Two point h three Roady Ram wasn't that good against
• 57:01
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh last time. He still had ten strikeouts in one
• 57:04
  Speaker 6: walk and four to two thirds innings, though, but he
• 57:07
  Speaker 6: gave up nine hits and four and runs. So I
• 57:10
  Speaker 6: don't know what happened in that game because he was
• 57:12
  Speaker 6: striking a bunch of guys out, but he also allowed
• 57:14
  Speaker 6: a lot of hits. Very weird pitching line there. But
• 57:17
  Speaker 6: if you throw that game out, he's been really good. Otherwise,
• 57:20
  Speaker 6: you know, he's gone I think at least five in
• 57:23
  Speaker 6: at least five to two thirds innings, and all of
• 57:25
  Speaker 6: his other outings except for his first one where they
• 57:27
  Speaker 6: limited him to five innings, he's given up more than
• 57:30
  Speaker 6: three earned runs only one other time. He's given up
• 57:33
  Speaker 6: more than two arn runs only three times. Really a
• 57:35
  Speaker 6: low hit rate, low walk rate as well. Pretty high
• 57:38
  Speaker 6: strikeout rate. You know, good numbers across the board. His
• 57:43
  Speaker 6: numbers against I already forget who we're talking about again.
• 57:45
  Speaker 6: I never, dude, I don't know why my mind works
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: this way. I never remember who the opponent is after
• 57:50
  Speaker 6: I dive into the starting pitcher, which sounds gay. Yes,
• 57:54
  Speaker 6: he does have good numbers against the Reds in sixty
• 57:57
  Speaker 6: nine at bats, also possibly gay. One eight eight batting
• 58:01
  Speaker 6: average allowed, five point fifty eight ohps, twenty to six
• 58:04
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio. All those numbers are good. He definitely
• 58:08
  Speaker 6: has the upper hand against Cincinnati's bats. So if Wheeler
• 58:11
  Speaker 6: is pitching, I think he should do well. Andrew Abbott,
• 58:15
  Speaker 6: it looks like he is getting the start for the Reds.
• 58:17
  Speaker 6: He's got a good ee ra three point eighty eight,
• 58:19
  Speaker 6: but his whip is not good one point four to four.
• 58:22
  Speaker 6: He's got some walk issues. Man. He's been fairly good
• 58:26
  Speaker 6: in previous seasons, but his walk numbers have become more
• 58:28
  Speaker 6: of an issue this year. He's not good at home
• 58:31
  Speaker 6: four point seventy five Homie Ray, and it is a
• 58:33
  Speaker 6: hitter friendly ballpark. His walk rate has been really bad
• 58:36
  Speaker 6: over the last month. Like his strikeout rate has actually
• 58:39
  Speaker 6: been okay, and he hasn't allowed that many runs, so
• 58:42
  Speaker 6: he's somehow escaping these games. But he's walking way too
• 58:46
  Speaker 6: many guys.
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: Dude.
• 58:46
  Speaker 6: You cannot put this many guys on base and keep
• 58:49
  Speaker 6: getting away with it.
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: So that is a problem.
• 58:53
  Speaker 6: He's got a reasonably low hit rate in the season.
• 58:55
  Speaker 6: His walk rate is obviously too high. That's one of
• 58:58
  Speaker 6: his major concerns. His home run are a little bit
• 59:00
  Speaker 6: of a concern as well. He is a bit of
• 59:03
  Speaker 6: a fly ball heavy pitcher, which doesn't play that well
• 59:05
  Speaker 6: in Cincinnati Stadium either. And he's not really a strikeout pitcher.
• 59:09
  Speaker 6: He has a pretty low strikeout right, so he is
• 59:12
  Speaker 6: obviously the lesser of the pictures. If Wheeler is pitching
• 59:16
  Speaker 6: Abbot against Philly, not good numbers and seventy at bats
• 59:20
  Speaker 6: a big sample. They have a three hundred average and
• 59:22
  Speaker 6: eight thirty six ops and eleven six strikeout walk racier
• 59:26
  Speaker 6: against him, So none of those numbers are good. So
• 59:28
  Speaker 6: I do not want to back Andrew Abbott here, man,
• 59:32
  Speaker 6: you know, I mean, I know Cincinnati has the rest
• 59:35
  Speaker 6: advantage here, but if it's going to be Wheeler on
• 59:38
  Speaker 6: the mound, I mean, I think Philly probably gets this game,
• 59:41
  Speaker 6: especially after they got embarrassed yesterday, and at least they
• 59:44
  Speaker 6: had a little bit extra time to travel because they
• 59:46
  Speaker 6: played in the afternoon yesterday. Minus won seventy is the
• 59:50
  Speaker 6: price right now that seems to indicate Wheeler's pitching. Like
• 59:54
  Speaker 6: I said, eighty two percent of tickets, eighty eight percent
• 59:56
  Speaker 6: of the cash on Philly. They're public, but it looks
• 59:59
  Speaker 6: like they might be getting some of the money. Money
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 6: is heavily indicating towards the over nine here. So given
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: all of that, and we're not really totally sure if
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 6: Wheeler is gonna pitch here, Philly over their team.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: Total makes some sense to me.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 6: And I think because they played yesterday, right and they
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 6: actually didn't do well offensively yesterday, their offense, their bats
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 6: might like stay in rhythm because they don't have a
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 6: day off and they should be able to tee off
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 6: on abbot based on the matchup numbers we just saw.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 6: Plus Cincinnati's bullpen is not good, So I think Philly
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 6: over their team total makes some sense here. But you're
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 6: gonna need them to score five or six runs if
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 6: you do that. They certainly can do that, though, uh
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 6: my Boston Red Sox are going to the White Sox
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 6: here the Battle of the Socks. This game is both
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 6: teams arrested, neither team played yesterday. Red Sox are having
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 6: to come in from Anaheim though, so they are having
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 6: to travel across multiple time zones. But like I said,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 6: it's easier to do that going west to east than
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 6: the opposite, so at least there is that because you're
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 6: just playing earlier. It's sort of like an early evening game,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 6: which is easier to do than a late night game.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 6: The White Sox just took two out of four against Cleveland,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 6: and they won the last two games. Those were big games,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 6: and they're returning over from a road trip, so the
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 6: spot is more negative for the White Sox even though
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 6: they're staying in the Central time zone here after playing Cleveland.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: That was a big divisional series.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 6: Dude, White Sox and Cleveland, they're both fighting for the
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 6: division lead right now, with hilariously Minnesota not that far behind.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 6: I still would not count Detroit out now that school
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 6: goes back and whatever, But.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: Anyway, those are big wins for the White Sox.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 6: Plus, returning over from a road trip tends to be
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 6: kind of a negative spot. Possible that maybe they slightly
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 6: overlook the Red Sox because the Red Sox are not
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 6: having a good season.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: Red Sox are.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 6: Actually favored on the road, so the odds makers are
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 6: respecting the Red Sox here. Maybe the White Sox still
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 6: get up though, because I mean this is a kind
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 6: of a matchup of classic teams, you know, teams that
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 6: have big.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: Market cities and whatever.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 6: So Red Sox have kind of become a, you know,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 6: not as big of a market team.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: Though.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 6: Recently, Red Sox did just sweep Anaheim over the weekend
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 6: and then had Yesterday off, which was definitely good for
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 6: them because they played the Sunday night game, so if
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 6: they had to turn around and play yesterday, it would
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 6: have been a pretty bad spot. Luckily for them, they
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 6: did not have to do that. I think the Red
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 6: Sox probably set up a little bit better here, and
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 6: probably their pitching is more trustworthy Red Sox well. Both
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 6: teams have a rested bullpen. The Red Sox are the
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 6: better bullpen. They're the third best bullpen he ra in
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 6: baseball right now and number five based on whip tied
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 6: with the Mets and Whips, so they should be ahead
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 6: of the Mets actually in that ranking because their era
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 6: is way better, so they're fourth actually in this ranking whatever,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 6: they're better than.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 5: The White Sox or mediocre. White Sox are twentieth.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 6: White Sox are an okay bullpen hitting wise, the White
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 6: Sox are obviously the better team.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: They're at eighth.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 6: The Red Sox have gotten better recently and they're better
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 6: on the road, but they're twenty third right now. Red
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 6: Sox are going with Peyton Toley, who's gonna need to
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 6: bounce back. Like I said, he's been good on the
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 6: season though. Three point three to nine ERA, one point
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 6: one two whip, that's pretty good stuff. He's been basically
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 6: the same home and away, really doesn't matter. He wasn't
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 6: good last time at home against Washington though, so he
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 6: was pitching better at home and that skewed his numbers.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 6: Now that maybe that's not a good sign because Washington's
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 6: a good offense, but so is the White Sox.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 5: But totally, I think he was in a personal.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 6: Letdown spot because if you look what he did the
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 6: previous game, he took like a no hitter into the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 6: fifth or sixth inning against the Yankees.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 5: He really did well against the Yankees.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 6: Obviously, he got way up emotionally for that game, so
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 6: I think he was gonna letdown spot. So I think
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 6: he bounces back at least to some extent here, because
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 6: that Washington start was way worse than all of his
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 6: other starts. He hadn't allowed more than four and runs,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 6: and any other start on the season, he's allowed more
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 6: than three only twice, including that last start. He's got
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 6: a low hit rate, his walk rate is slightly high.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 6: I guess strike out rate is right at one per inning.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 6: I know the White Sox are gonna be a pretty
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 6: formidable opponent, but they're also unfamiliar with him. Greed Chuck
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 6: is the only hitter has faced him, oh for two
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 6: with a strikeout and no walks. I think totally should
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 6: bounce back here and pitch better. Generally, he's good and
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 6: he's unfamiliar to the White Sox, so he should have
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 6: that advantage. And on the other side, this makes this
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 6: a matchup of very tall left handers, and this one
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 6: Noah Schultz is pitching for the White Sox. I like him,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 6: and he's actually only like a year younger than Peyton Toley,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 6: even though Peyton totally looks like he could be his
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 6: father because totally aged himself like twenty years just by
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 6: growing a mustache, but they're almost the same age. Schultz
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 6: has not really been as good, but I think the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 6: White Sox might have rushed him up a little bit.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 6: I think Schultz has some talent man. He's got a
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 6: pretty good pitch arsenal. He's a tall lefty and his
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 6: stuff is hard to pick up for hitters. But he's
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 6: not been really successful though so far five point eight
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 6: six z Ray, one point three to five whip. He's
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 6: been a little bit better at home four point nine
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 6: to one homy Ray. But if you dig into this
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 6: a little bit, obviously the walks are his huge issue.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 6: Like offenses have not been hitting him well, but his
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 6: walks have been a problem. He got he either got
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 6: injured or they send him to the miners. I'm not
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 6: sure which happened here. He came back and he didn't
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 6: pitch that well against Baltimore last time out. He walked
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 6: four guys in four to thirty eight, So again, the
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 6: walks have been an issue for him. Although he had
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 6: seven strikeouts and only two hits allowed, but he gave
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 6: up three on runs. Overall, he's got a low hit rate,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 6: so he is difficult to hit. But his walk rate
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 6: is enormous. His walk rate is way too high, and
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 6: his strikeout rate is decent.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I think he's a good pitcher.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 6: But it's again very common case where you get this
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 6: young guy that comes up and very similar to Randy Johnson,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 6: and that he's really tall, a lefty, and he's having
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 6: major control.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: Issues early in his career.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 6: He isn't really Johnson, though he doesn't throw as hard
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 6: of a fastball as Randy Johnson, though Schultz I think
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 6: throws like mid nineties. But I think his best pitcher,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 6: if I remember correct his best pitch, if I remember corrected,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 6: he is like a sinker that like drops really hard.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 5: Down out of the zone.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 6: And of course the Red Sox have never faced him,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 6: so he does have an advantage there against the Red Sox. However,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 6: you know, both pitchers have that unfamiliarity edge. I'm gonna
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 6: lean to the Red Sox here because I think it
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 6: is a better spot for them with the White Sox
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 6: returning home from the from the road totally has established
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 6: himself so far better than Schultz.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: Has money seems to agree.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 6: Seventy two percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 6: cash on the Red Sox.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: They're favored even though they have the lesser record.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 6: I think the public is gonna have a tendency to
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 6: kind of shy away from the Red Sox because why
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 6: would you want to lay a favorite price with the
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 6: team that has the worst offense in you know, the
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 6: worst record right on the road. So even though it
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 6: does look like they're getting some public ticket percentage here,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 6: I don't think the public is really gonna back the
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 6: Red Sox here, even though I guess they'll look at
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 6: the pitcher's eras and like totally better for that reason.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 6: But the public likes offenses, and obviously the White Sox
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 6: have been the better offense and they have the better record,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 6: So I think the public is gonna maybe think that
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 6: there's value on the White Sox, and it does. It
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 6: looks pretty strange that the Red Sox are a road
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 6: favorite here, so I think the odds makers are kind
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 6: of signaling something with that. You know, I'm I'm not.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: Being biased about it, you know, as a Red Sox fan.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 6: I mean, if anything, I'm biased negatively towards the Red
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 6: Sox because they suck so bad that, you know, But
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 6: obviously the odds makers continue to tell you the Red
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 6: Sox are not as.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: Bad as they look.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 6: They do have good pitching, and yeah, minus one twenty
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 6: something is the price. You'll also get the bullpen advantage
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 6: if you play the Red Sox there, so probably that
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 6: is the better.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: Way to play.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 6: It is Red Sox money line.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 5: The money's backing.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 6: The over slightly seventy three percent of tickets eighty seven
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 6: percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 5: I would lean under, probably even full game.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 6: I mean, the White Sox bullpen isn't really one that
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 6: you really need to avoid. And you know, we have
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 6: both teams rested yesterday, so you know, I talk about how.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 5: That can cool off the hitting.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 6: The bullpens get rested total at eight and a half.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 6: Red Sox don't really hit that well though again they
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 6: do hit better on the road, and they've been hitting
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 6: better recently. White Sox do have a good offense. But
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 6: still I think we have a pitching matchup that might
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 6: lend itself to a lower scoring game. Both pitchers with
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 6: unfamiliarity here and the bullpens I think are at least decent.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 6: Red Sox I would say are good, so an under
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 6: makes something.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: My first thought.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 6: Actually, when I saw that pitching matchup was potentially an.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 5: Under in that one, So do what you want with that.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 5: I'll be right back.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 6: I'll talk about the remaining five games here. I'm gonna
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 6: have a play in the WNBA and in the World
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 6: Cup when I come back, So I have one play
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 6: in each sport. And I think the Cubs play that
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 6: I give out I think is the worst, worst of
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 6: all of them. I'll be right back.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 5: Yep.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 6: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on oh and
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 6: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: It was just complete bullshit.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 6: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 6: Sunday one and five. I don't even know what to
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 6: tell you above that.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 5: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: never seen anything like this.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 6: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 6: good day at all.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: Oh in four that have not had a good season.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 6: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 6: slump continues.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 5: I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 5: my browins hat man. I don't know what is going
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 5: on with the Bruins arch hape. Is that what it is?
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 5: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 6: But I'm not I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 6: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 6: possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 5: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 5: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 6: Own five, the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 6: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 5: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 6: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 5: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 6: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 6: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 6: The next game here Cleveland and Minnesota. Minnesota, I think
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 6: is in a bad spot. They're turning on from a
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 6: road trip where they beat Houston and the Yankees, so
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 6: bad spot for Minnesota in my opinion, coming back from
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 6: a road trip could be a letdown after beating the
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 6: Yankees twice in somewhat blowout fashion. To However, they're facing Cleveland,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 6: who's ahead of them in the Ale Central.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 6: It's a big divisional series, so Minnesota can't really afford
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 6: to be totally distracted here. Even though usually the return
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 6: home spot is a distracted spot, they might still show
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 6: up and pay attention to Cleveland. Cleveland should show up
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 6: as well, because they're not really that far ahead of Minnesota.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 6: And Cleveland did just lose the last two games to
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 6: the White Sox. Like I said, that was a big
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 6: series though, so maybe they will be a little bit
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 6: hungover after a big series against the White Sox. But
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 6: on the other hand, it could be positive for Cleveland
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 6: too because they're.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 5: Starting a road trip.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 6: Usually your focus when you start a road trip, so
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 6: I don't know which way this is gonna go, but
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 6: you know that I usually default to.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 5: The team that's starting the road trip.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 6: Against a team that's returning home from a road trip,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 6: I tend to want to go with that team starting
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 6: the road trip. I've faded the team returning home, so
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 6: that would have me looking towards Cleveland in this game.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 6: Neither team played yesterday. I don't believe Cleveland has the
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 6: better bullpen. They are where are they? There's somewhere in
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 6: the middle here. They are fifteenth, Yeah, right in the middle.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 6: Their decent bullpen Minnesota's is horrible. They're twenty ninth. He
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 6: could make the argument they're the worst, so they're not
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 6: a good bullpen. Minnesota is the better offense at seventh.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 6: Cleveland has been bad, twenty eighth, tied with the Mets.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 6: Not good, still waiting on some of their injured players
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 6: to come back to I think Cleveland's going with Joey
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 6: Cantillo here. Kind of tough to gauge the starting pitching matchup.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 6: Canteo three point eight six e RA is pretty good,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 6: one point.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 5: Three to six whip is not that good.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 6: He's not as good on the road four point twenty
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 6: seven road ERA.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 5: He walked five guys in his last down and he
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 5: gets Texas. That's not great.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 6: Texas not the greatest offense here, and Cantillo has some
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 6: command issues here. Looking at his numbers on the season,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 6: he does have a low hit rate, but his walks
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 6: have been an issue. His strikeout rate is pretty good,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 6: but yeah, the walks are his huge issue. Cantillo would
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 6: actually be a pretty decent pitcher if he.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 5: Stopped walking people. Against Minnesota.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 6: They have forty two at bats against him, and Cantio
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 6: has actually had the upper hand against them. Even though
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 6: Minnesota actually does hit pretty well at home, but two
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 6: thirty eight batting average allowed six twenty nine ops, seventeen
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 6: to five strike out walk ratio.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 5: Cantio's got pretty.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 6: Good numbers here against Minnesota, so he does look like
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 6: he matches up pretty well. Taj Bradley is going for Minnesota.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 6: He started to pitch better again recently. He's a guy
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 6: I can't figure out, dude, like I gave out a
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 6: couple of plays on him when he wasn't pitching well.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 6: He pitched well at the beginning of the season. He
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 6: struggled when he was with Tampa Bay, but I always
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 6: looked at his numbers and thought, I mean, this guy
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 6: has strikeout stuff, so he's got some talent here. He's
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 6: got decent numbers this year three point eight six ERA,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 6: one point two to nine WHIP. It's a little high,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 6: but it's not that bad. He's been better at home
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 6: three point five eight home Mira, so the home road
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 6: splits are in his favor. And again, he's pitched well
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 6: recent His last few starts have all been pretty good,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 6: although his walk rate is still a little bit high.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 6: Had a lot of strikeouts last time at eleven strikeouts
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 6: against Houston in five innings.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 5: That's pretty good. So he is fooling some batters right now.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 6: He's got a high strikeout rate on the season, a
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 6: pretty low hit rate.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is a little bit high.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 6: So again, that's really the main issue with him is
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 6: the walks, because the rest of his numbers are pretty good.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 6: He's kind of hard to hit. He strikes out a
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 6: lot of guys. That's all pretty good. His numbers against
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 6: Cleveland are actually not good in nineteen at bats. You
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 6: know what I think I might should I add this
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 6: to my card. Three sixty eight average allowed, nine to
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 6: twenty six oh bs.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 5: That's bad.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 6: Eight to one strikeout walk ratio. I don't know, man,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 6: in only nineteen at bats is a small sample. But
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 6: let me see what the market is doing here. Market
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 6: is on Minnesota right now at minus one sixteen or so,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 6: fifty three percent of tickets, sixty seven percent of the
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 6: cash on them, and money backing the over eight and
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 6: a half or whatever that's worth. I like Cleveland in
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 6: this game, man, I got those matchup numbers correct with Cantello, right,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 6: let me see. Plus it's a return home spot. I'm
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 6: considering adding this play hold on, let me see canteo. Yeah, yeah,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 6: let me look at what Action Network has to say
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 6: about this, because this is at least this is a
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 6: better situation than the one that I gave out on
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 6: the Cubs.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 5: I think twins, where are you at? Yeah?
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 6: Action Network seems to kind of be signaling that way
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 6: and also kind of agreeing with the Cubs signaling towards Cleveland.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 5: I mean, and the Cubs. You know what.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 6: Cleveland's got the better bullpen too, So this is gonna
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 6: be a full game play. You can find it at
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 6: even money out there or a price that's pretty close
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 6: to that. Yeah, all right, I'm gonna add a second play.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 6: A lot of times I get screwed by adding these
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 6: extra plays, but let's add Cleveland as a play here.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 6: There you go, Cleveland plus one hundred. Although again, I
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 6: know Minnesota maybe isn't gonna be totally distracted because Cleveland's
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 6: ahead of them in the standings.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 5: Cleveland, I know, is coming off.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 6: A big series, but still I like the team starting
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 6: a road trip against the team it's returning home from one.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 6: So let's go with Cleveland there. Plus, I think the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 6: pitching matchup works works out that way too. So if
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 6: that wasn't the case, I would not do it. Next
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 6: game up. You know, I already talked about the doubleheader
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 6: with Milwaukee Saint Louis.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 5: Go look at the top of the show for that.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 6: Not much to say because we don't know who's pitching
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 6: in the second game. I will say one thing though,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 6: If McGreevy does not pitching Game one for Saint Louis,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 6: I'm almost one hundred percent sure that he is starting
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 6: for Saint Louis in game two if he doesn't pitch
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 6: in game one. So I will say that for Milwaukee,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 6: let me look at what they've done, we might be
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 6: able to predict who they're starting here. Wood drives back
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 6: on the DL though, so miss Zerowski winned Harrison last No,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 6: he pitched.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 5: Too recently, basically on the third.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 6: So yeah, I don't know what Milwaukee's gonna do in
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 6: their second game there because they don't have that many
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 6: options with Woodruff heard again and whatever's going to So
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 6: I don't know anyway, Anaheim Texas. On the surface, I
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 6: thought I was gonna get a give on an under
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 6: on this game. This really really looks like it's an
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 6: under to me. But I have one reason why I'm
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 6: not doing it pretty much. But this game, I still
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 6: like the under here and this looks like it.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 5: Should be an under.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 6: Both teams are off yesterday, the game's in Texas, and
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 6: you know I like Texas unders in Texas, so the
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 6: last time I gave one out it didn't happen, which
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 6: pisses me off.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 5: But they played low scoring games at home.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 6: Total is low in this game, but I always talk
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 6: about how it's low for a reason. Now, with both
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 6: teams being off yesterday, I think that should cool off.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: The offenses a little bit.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 6: Anaheim's coming in starting a road trip after getting swept
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 6: by the Red Sox and swept by Seattle prior to that,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 6: but that was on the road, but still coming off
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 6: a bunch of losses. The Angels should be in the
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 6: more focused spot here. So maybe the Angels are maybe
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 6: a way to look in this game, actually believe it
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 6: or not, although Texas is just staying at home, so
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 6: it's not a return home spot for Texas. Both bullpen's arrested,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 6: but Anaheim's bullpen is still not really backable. They're not
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 6: good at twenty third. Texas is the better bullpen at tenth,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 6: although they've struggled a little bit recently and gotten on
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 6: my bad side with some of those underplays there. Texas
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 6: not a great offense at eighteenth tie of Detroit. Anaheim
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 6: is twenty second. They've really struggled. I think they're actually
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 6: better on the road, Anaheim is going with. Speaking of
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 6: better on the road, Anaheim is going with Jose Soriano
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 6: three point four to two era for him one point
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 6: three to two.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 5: Whip is not that good, you know.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 6: I mean he gets too wild, but he is good
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 6: on the road last year and this year he's better
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 6: on the road, so you when you back him, you
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 6: usually want to back him on the road. Two point
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 6: nine to one ROADI al right, that's pretty good. He
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 6: pitched well in his last start, but it was at
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 6: Seattle Pitcher Friendly Park, but he did well, so maybe
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 6: he is kind of returning back into form here. He's
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 6: kind of a streaky pitcher in a way. But usually
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 6: I think you want to go with his home road
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 6: splits typically and fade him at home and back him
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 6: on the road usually except when I faded him on
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 6: the road at the A's Stadium, but that was a
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 6: completely different scenario and we got the over easily. In
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 6: that one correct. Now, Soriano's difficult to hit. He's allowed
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 6: very few hits. His walk rate is too high. His
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 6: strike out rate is also high, and he induces a
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 6: lot of ground balls. So he's got a lot of talent.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 6: He could definitely fool major league hitters. His problem is
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 6: that he gets wild. He's got to get his walk
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 6: number down. His numbers, don't worry. Those are against the
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 6: Red Sox. Red Sox were able to sweep sweep Anaheim
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 6: Anaheim without having to face Soriano, so there you go.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 6: But against Texas, yeah, he does have good numbers against Texas.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 6: Two twenties six average allowed, five ninety five ohps and
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 6: fifty three at bats fourteen to five strike out walk racios.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 5: So that's pretty good.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 6: So Soriano does well on the road and does well
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 6: against Texas. I think he has a good matchup here.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 6: The problem with the problem with the under for me
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 6: is actually Jacob de Grom. Believe it or not, de
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 6: Grom's been good a three point four to eighty ra
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 6: point nine to nine whip.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 5: At his old age, he's still pitching effectively.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 6: He's been really good at home two point three to
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 6: eight home rate is a very pitcher friendly stadium here.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 5: He's been pitching well recently.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 6: He's in good form, had pretty much a really good
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 6: month of June here.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 5: Low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 6: All of his numbers are good, except he allows too
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 6: many home runs because he's a fly ball heavy pitcher.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 6: But obviously pitching in Texas's home stadium can knock those
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 6: balls down.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 5: Sounds pretty gang.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 6: You know what my problem is gonna be, though, Believe
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 6: it or not, he does not do well against Anaheim.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 6: In fifty four at bats, three fifty tea and average
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 6: allowed one thousand and three ops.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 5: That is not good.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 6: Sixteen to five strike out walk ratio, that's fine, but
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 6: the rest of these numbers definitely worry me.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 5: So looking at this game, I still lean under.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 6: I mean, the full game is seven, but I think
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 6: you can't really back Anaheim's bullpen, so I think a
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 6: first five under still makes sense, but I don't really
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 6: want to do it, especially to Gram with bad matchup numbers.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 6: Plus the number that you're gonna get is gonna be
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 6: like three and a half, which is you know, I'll
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 6: do it sometimes, but it is a little bit iffy,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 6: and I really don't want to do it here, but
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 6: I still think I do lean that way towards the
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 6: under three and a half in the first five money
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 6: is back in the over though seventy one percent of tickets,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 6: ninety percent of the cash on the over. I mean
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 6: it makes more sense to go full game if you're
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 6: gonna really do an over here because you want Anaheim's.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 6: The bullpen included in that total is seven, so it
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 6: is really low. And again I always talk about you
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 6: know it's low for reason it's expected to be a
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 6: low scoring game. The money is also backing Anaheim, and
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 6: I actually do agree with that. Eighty four percent of tickets,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 6: seventy percent of the cash on Texas. They're a public side,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 6: so I think it's there are a lot of things
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 6: that go into that. I think Anaheim's in a positive spot,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 6: like a focused spot starting your road trip. Just get
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 6: out of home when everything's going bad for you. They
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 6: hit better on the road. Soriano's better on the road,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 6: and Soriano has a better matchup here. De gram is
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 6: better at home, but he's got bad matchup numbers, and
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 6: you know you're gonna pay a price for De Grom
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 6: minus one sixty something here. That's a pretty high price
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 6: given that Soriano could definitely battle at least in this game.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 5: So I think the price is too high.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 6: In Texas, I think maybe that is actually the better
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 6: way to play this game is to play Anaheim in
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 6: the first five, take take a half run on the spread.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 6: With Anaheim in the first five, you might be able
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 6: to get that one done given what that pitching matchup is.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 6: So I think that would be maybe the way I
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 6: would actually lean there where I started out thinking an
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 6: under in that game. Arizona San Diego. San Diego lost
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 6: the game yesterday. It was a return home spot, plus
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 6: they were coming up being in the Dodger so it
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 6: wasn't a great spot for San Diego.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 5: They lost eight to nothing.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 6: But you know, I talk about when a team loses
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 6: in the return home spot, a lot of times they
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 6: bounce back in the next game.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 5: And if a team loses badly.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 6: And they get shut out at home, a lot of
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 6: times they bounce back in the next game after that too,
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 6: So it is a bounce back spot for San Diego here.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 6: San Diego should have the better bullpen. They did get
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 6: a little bit of rest yesterday. At least they only
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 6: used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday, so at
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 6: least that should help.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 5: Them a little bit.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 6: Arizona's bullpen, I think is the lesser of the two.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 6: They used two guys out of the bullpen as well.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 6: Arizona is ranked sixth, and their era is not really
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 6: that bad right now.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 5: I still think they're more of like a mid.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 6: Tier bullpen though in San Diego is ranked thirteenth, but
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 6: I still think they're like a top five bullpen. They
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 6: just had some struggles recently, but a lot of it
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 6: is because they've just not had rest and now they're
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 6: a little bit more rested San Diego. We know their
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 6: offense hasn't been good. They're dead last thirtieth, but Arizona's
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 6: twenty six, which is not much better. Arizona's going with
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 6: Zach Gallon here.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: He is not doing well.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 6: Six point three sixty Ray, one point five to seven
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 6: whip that is really bad. He's worse on the road
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 6: to six point nine to five Roady Ray not pitching well.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 6: Really not much to like about Gallon at all. He's
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 6: not been pitching well recently either. High hit rate, low
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 6: walk rates. So at least there's that he doesn't walk people,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 6: but his strikeout rate is really low too. He's not
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 6: fooling anybody. You know, one thing that you might be
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 6: able to say as well. He's going to be in
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 6: a pitcher friendly ballpark here in San Diego, so that
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 6: should help right against a weak offense. And he did
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 6: pitch against San Diego at home earlier this year. He
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 6: only went three innings in that outing, but he was good.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 6: He gave him one hit and had a clean a
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 6: clean sheet. Otherwise, if we're in soccer mode, three strikeouts,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 6: no walks there, his numbers are actually not.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 5: Good overall against San Diego though.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 6: One hundred and forty eight at bats, two fifty average,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 6: eight oh six ops, thirty seven strikeouts.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 5: Fifteen walks. It's a lot of walks.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 6: So he doesn't do well against San Diego. Typically, San
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 6: Diego is listed is undecided here, but on the board
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 6: they have listed Herman Marquez, which I know that doesn't
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 6: look good. Marquez is not a good pitcher, but we
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 6: got to kind of put this into context here. Marquez
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 6: pitched most of his career with Colorado, so like Colorado,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 6: pitching for Colorado does not tell you who a pitcher is.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 6: He literally his entire career until this year was with Colorado,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 6: and yeah, his numbers haven't been that good.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 5: A couple of years actually were pretty.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 6: Good for Colorado there, although yeah, I mean he's still
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 6: actually not even that old.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 5: He's thirty one.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 6: With San Diego, you gotta figure that he's going to
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 6: start pitching better at some point in this much more
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 6: pitcher friendly stadium. I know his numbers are not good
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 6: so far, five point seven to ninety RA, one point
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 6: four to seven whip. He's been really bad at home,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 6: which makes no sense. Ten point three to eight Homie Ray.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 6: I still think that's gonna turn around, though, Man, you know,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 6: I don't know what the deal is with that.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 5: You look at his numbers.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 6: His hit rate is slightly high, as walk rate is
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 6: definitely too high, so that's not good.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 5: His strike out rate is low.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 6: I know there's not a lot to like here with
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 6: these numbers, but I think Marquez might be able to
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 6: do okay in this matchup. I mean, I think at
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 6: some point he's going to start pitching a little bit
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 6: better than this, especially in San Diego Stadium. He's got
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 6: one hundred and twenty eight at bats against Arizona and
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 6: he's actually had the upper hand against them to twenty
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 6: seven average seven h nine ops. I know that's not low,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 6: but it's still below that seven to fifty threshold. His
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk numbers are not that good though, twenty three
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 6: to fourteen and that's not good. And you know his
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 6: numbers are still bad and off across the board that
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 6: I don't really want to back him, but I think
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 6: I would lean towards San Diego in this game, though,
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 6: I think they do have a couple of edges.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 5: Here and there favored.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 6: Marquez being favored does seem kind of ridiculous, Like do
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 6: you really want to back Marquez is a favorite? I
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 6: don't know, but I think you will get a bullpen
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 6: advantage and a situational advantage, and I think he has
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 6: a better matchup numbers over Gowan. I mean, Gallen has
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 6: been really bad. So I lean San Diego. Here. They're
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 6: on minus one twenty here. You know, maybe that price
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 6: is a little bit too high. Fifty eight percent of ticket,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 6: seventy three percent of the cash on Arizona though, so
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 6: the money's back in Arizona. Money's also back in the
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 6: over eight and a half. I wouldn't really disagree with
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 6: the over. I mean, it still looks like it's a
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 6: pretty shitty pitching matchup here between you know, two starters
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 6: who are not very good. So yeah, the over does
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 6: still make some sense in that one. And it's you know,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 6: an eight and a half, it's almost nine, which is
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 6: pretty high for San Diego.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: Total.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 6: All right, Toronto and San Francisco. San Francisco and won
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 6: again yesterday, even though they were turning over from a
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 6: road trip. They want ten to one. But I showed
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 6: you I think Kevin Goussman. Goussman had really bad numbers
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 6: against San Francisco, so I told you I did not
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 6: like the matchup for him. Maybe this will be a
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 6: bounce back for Toronto. But we don't even know who
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 6: Toronto's starting for their pitcher here. I went back five
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 6: games to try to figure that out, and I believe
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 6: it's a bullpen game. I'm pretty sure five games ago
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 6: Toronto went with a bullpen game, So I'm pretty sure
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 6: they're going with a bullpen game here with like Miles
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 6: and a couple of those other guys pitching. So do
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 6: what you want with that info. I don't know if
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 6: that's great, but Toronto used two relief pitchers yesterday, San
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 6: Francisco used one. San Francisco's bullpen has struggled recently, though
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 6: they were good yesterday for them, you know, just that
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 6: one short stint, but they have they're not good this year.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: Twenty fourth, that's not good.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 6: Toronto's been the better bullpen at eleventh, so I'll give
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 6: Toronto a bit of a bullpen edge here. San Francisco
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 6: has had the better offense at twelfth. Toronto is twenty seventh.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 6: I still I keep saying it, but I still don't
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 6: think San Francisco is this good offensively. They got a
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 6: good matchup yesterday, and their numbers are being skewed by
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 6: some big offensive outputs in some of these stadiums that
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 6: are very hit or conducive. I still think their offense
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 6: is gonna drop back down having some of these home
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 6: games here. I don't know if it'll be today against
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 6: Toronto's bullpen game. Maybe it will be. San Francisco is
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 6: going with Trevor McDonald. He's fallen off recently. I'm pretty
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 6: sure he's got a four point four two ERA. His
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 6: whip is not that bad though one point two to three.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 6: He's been worse at home, which makes no sense. Five
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 6: point eight to eight homey ray again. San Francisco is
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 6: a pitcher friendly park, but he did bitch well in
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 6: his last outing. It was on the road at Arizona.
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 6: He's six inning shutout, one hit them with no walks
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 6: in five strikeouts, So maybe McDonald is returning to form
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 6: a little bit here. McDonald was pretty good for San
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 6: Francisco last year, but he had a really really bad
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 6: month of June. So I don't know what to make
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 6: of that last start against Arizona, you know. I mean,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 6: their offense isn't really that good, but neither is Toronto.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 6: McDonald has a pretty low hit rate, his walk rate's
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 6: not too bad, and his strikeout rate is not really great,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 6: but it's all right.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 5: And Toronto's never seen him before, so McDonald probably.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 6: Does have a little bit of an edge there and
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 6: that he's unfamiliar to Toronto. Do I want to back
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 6: San Francisco. No, the money is actually backing Toronto. Fifty
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 6: tickets ninety three percent of the cash on Toronto. Strong
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 6: market read there in Toronto's minus one fifteen or so,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 6: even though we don't even know who's pitching for them,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 6: and it's likely to be a bullpend game, and yet
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 6: Toronto's still favored. That's what the odds, the odds makers
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 6: think of San Francisco. Man, the odds makers are telling
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 6: you San Francisco is not good and their record is
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 6: also not good. But yeah, they're getting really disrespected in
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 6: the market. But the money is back in Toronto. Total
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 6: is low at seven and a half, So again the
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 6: odds makers expecting San Francisco is not gonna do much
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 6: offensive damage here. Money is back in the over though.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 6: I still I don't know what to do at this game.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 6: It's a difficult game to figure out. The money is
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 6: saying Toronto pretty strongly. I'm not gonna back at Toronto
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 6: bullpen game. I'm not gonna fade a pitchers maybe starting
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 6: to do better again, who's unfamiliar to the opposing offense.
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 5: I'm just not gonna do that.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 6: Then we have Colorado and the Dodgers. This looks like
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 6: it should be a pretty big edge for the Dodgers.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 6: Dodgers barely won yesterday. They had to win in the
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 6: eleventh inning yesterday. But I talk about this, it could
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 6: be like a zig zag type of thing where the
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 6: Dodgers kind of get scared back into focus, right, because
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 6: the Dodgers is the way better team should not have
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 6: almost lost to Colorado, So the fact that they did
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 6: might give them a scare and have them focus a
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 6: little bit more in this game. And it could be
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 6: a hangover for Colorado. Because Colorado almost pulled off the
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 6: upset against the Dodgers, maybe Colorado will be less good
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 6: in this game for that reason.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 5: Colorado's been competitive against the.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 6: Dodgers this year, though, man so there is that they've
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 6: played them pretty tough. Dodgers may just continuously overlook them, though,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 6: and maybe in this game they won't because of what
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 6: happened yesterday. Dodgers use four lead pitchers in that game,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 6: Colorado also did. Colorado obviously the lesser bullpen here. Dodgers
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 6: are ranked seventh. They're a decent bullpen. Rockies are not
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 6: a good bullpen. They're at twenty seventh. They got their
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 6: era back below five, though, but they're still not good.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 6: Colorado is fourth in offense, although I expect maybe a
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 6: little bit less out of them on the road. The
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 6: Dodgers are number one. Of course, this looks like a
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 6: huge pitching mismatch, at least on the surface. Colorado going
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 6: with Michael Lorenzen.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 5: He's bad.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 6: Six point nine Winni ra one point eight to one
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 6: whip is very bad. He is better outside of course
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 6: field though, five point six' Eight Roady, ray which is
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 6: still not, good but at least it's better than what
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 6: he does at home wasn't good in his last start
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 6: at all at home he had six walks Against miami
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 6: at four and a. Third, yeah that's not Gonna that
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 6: is not going to get the job. Done he actually
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 6: wasn't that bad last, month though his era wasn't that.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 5: Good he was too, hittable but he wasn't walking guys last.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 6: Month his command was. Alright he is way too hittable
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 6: though that's just his main. Issue he doesn't really walk that.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: Many, guys but he's really really, hittable which is a huge.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 6: Problem his strike out rates not really that good. Either,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 6: however believe it or, not he actually isn't that bad
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 6: against The dodgers in sixty six at, bats two seventy
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 6: three average at six sixty three ohps pretty.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 5: Low they don't really hit him for, power ten.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 6: Strikeouts four, Walks so maybe he does actually do okay
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 6: because he's got decent matchup, numbers and he's better on the.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 5: Road at.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 6: Least he's still the lesser pitcher here because The dodgers
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 6: are going With Justin. Robleski and even though the advanced
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 6: analytics guys do not like this, guy he's still pitching.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 5: Well two point EIGHTY, ra one point zero ONE.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 6: WHIP i, mean he's got good numbers THAT i can't
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 6: really argue with too, much even though he pitches to,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 6: contact so the advanced analytics guys don't like.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 5: That but he's been. Effective he's got a two point
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 5: five home E, ra which is obviously.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 6: Good he had eleven strikeouts against The a's last time
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 6: out at The A's. Stadium he's had some pretty difficult opponents,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 6: here mostly road games, recently and he's been pretty. Good
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 6: he's been good in all of those starts except the
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 6: one At. Pittsburgh so, yeah he's pitching well in some
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 6: pretty difficult. Environments SO i think he's kind of. Legit
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 6: he's got a low hit, rate he's got a low walk.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 6: Rate his strikeout rates not, good so again that's why
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 6: the advanced analytics guys don't like, him because he doesn't
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 6: strike guys. Out but he's not allowing a lot of.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 6: Hits his numbers Against colorado are. Good in thirty one
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 6: at bats one ninety four, average four point fifty two ohps,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 6: five zero, strikeout walk raiser only two extra base hits
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 6: doubles From caros And.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 5: Tovar by the, way Is caros Eric carros's?
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 6: SON i don't, know, Man Kyle, Carros, YEAH i Remember
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 6: Eric carros being in the league way back in the.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 6: Day i'm old. Man maybe that's his. Son it might
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 6: be that probably make me feel a bit.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 5: Old what do we do with this game While i'm
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 5: staying away from?
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 6: IT i, MEAN i lead to The dodgers BECAUSE i
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 6: still think they do have the pitching edge, year and
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 6: the money is kind of doing. That but eighty nine
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 6: percent of, tickets ninety three percent of the. Cash maybe
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 6: it means public and professionals all on The dodgers. Year
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 6: but their minus too. Eighty, dude you can't really lay
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 6: minus too. EIGHTY i, mean you could lay a run
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 6: line with The dodgers here and get them.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 5: To win my margin. Here maybe they get it.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 6: Done it is a high total at nine and a,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 6: half BUT i actually like the first five under in
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 6: the game based on what we just saw with the pitching,
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 6: MATCHUP i think both pitchers might actually do well enough
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 6: for this for the first part of this game to go,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 6: under and the money is on the under in the full,
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 6: game fifty four percent of, tickets sixty percent of the
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 6: cash on the. UNDER i would not Back colorado's bullpen,
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 6: though AND i don't THINK i want to back either
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 6: bullpen after they got overextended in the extra inning game.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 6: Yesterday but a first five under makes. Sense the total
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 6: is nine and a, half so it is. HOT i
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 6: USUALLY i say it's high for a, reason BUT i
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 6: think maybe there's a little bit of value on the
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 6: first five, under which is probably gonna be about five
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 6: and a.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 5: Half so do with that what you. Want that's the baseball.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 6: Rundown all, right a long video, Here let's try to
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 6: get this done in less than another half. Hour, man
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 6: we only have TWO wnba. Games i'm gonna give you
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 6: a play on THE espn game right.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: Now, WHOOPS.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 6: Wnba we have to get back on, track. Dude we
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 6: started out five and oh and now we're six and
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 6: seven and.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 5: Numerous of these losses.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 6: Of them and, Bullshit i'm gonna give Out dallas plus
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 6: five Against New. York we, gotta, dude we're gonna have
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 6: to jump in and Fade New.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 5: York.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 6: MAN i like The Western conference more than The Eastern,
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 6: conference BUT i know The liberty have been playing well
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 6: against The Western conference. Recently but remember WHAT i talked
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 6: about WHEN i gave up that loser in The cup
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 6: game Against. Vegas vegas was Without Asia, wilson, though and
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 6: they still maybe should have, covered and they made a huge.
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 6: Comeback vegas actually had the lead late in that, game
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 6: SO i think they probably should have. Covered but WHAT
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 6: i talked about going into that game is The liberty
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 6: have been bad against The West. Conference, dude there's still
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 6: even after two wins Against western Teams vegas And, minnesota
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 6: those are their two last, games huge, wins by the,
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 6: way even with those two, Wins i'm pretty sure The
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 6: liberty are six and seven against The, west which is
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 6: still not, good and they haven't been particularly good at.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 6: Home they're a little bit better, now but they're seven
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 6: and four at, home which isn't really that. Good And
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 6: dallas has been decent on the road seven and. Five
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 6: so you, KNOW i think for those, reasons like just
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 6: based on you, know the conference splits and, WHATEVER i
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 6: think we could start looking Towards dallas for those. Reasons
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 6: dallas plays and WHAT i think is the more difficult,
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 6: conference which is The. West, now WHAT i did want
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 6: to look at is what Is dallas record against The.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 5: EAST i guess this is my other. Question.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 6: Dallas let's see here The sea right here means The
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 6: liberty won The Commissioner's. CUP i was, like, wait they.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 5: Already clinched The. East that's.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 6: Ridiculous, yeah, no they have not done that. Yet Now.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 6: Dallas let's, See dallas in conference is six and six
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 6: in The. West so that means that they're seven and
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 6: two against The. East, Right DID i do that?
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 5: Math? Right?
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 6: Yeah So dallas is really good against The. East seven and.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 6: Two so, AGAIN i think we're getting the better conference matchup.
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 6: HERE i know The liberty just beat Two west, teams
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 6: BUT i think that's gonna put them in a letdown.
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 5: Spot.
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 6: Dude they won The Commissioner's, cup huge win Against, vegas
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 6: but it was Without Asia. Wilson and then they Beat
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 6: minnesota On, friday huge win against the best team in the.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 6: League even though that was without call, here she's still not.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 6: Back that's a huge win for The. Liberty now they're
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 6: staying at.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 5: Home off of.
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 6: THAT i know this is AN espn, game but you
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 6: gotta think this is a let down off of.
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 5: That who do they play? Next ON?
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 6: Abc On, saturday they Played minnesota Against they're in A minnesota.
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 6: Sandwich they're in a juicy, lucy which sounds even more
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 6: ridiculous in a women's. Sport but, YEAH i do not
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 6: like the spot for The. Liberty even Though dallas is
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 6: a good. Team you're if you're having that game sandwiched
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 6: in between A Commissioner's cup win against the returning champs
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 6: and one of the best teams Still vegas and Then
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 6: minnesota after, that the best team in the. League, yeah
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 6: and With minnesota again, next you might not pay as
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 6: much attention To. Dallas, Now dallas did come Into New
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 6: york and beat them by fifteen back In, may but
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 6: it wasn't, recent So i'm gonna put less weight into.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 6: That and if you look into that, game there are
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 6: some concerns Where dallas really really had a three point
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 6: advantage in that game and that that could definitely. REGRESS i,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 6: KNOW i like to zigzag against teams that had a
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 6: big three point edge in the previous matchup And dallas. Did, technically,
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 6: yes it could regress here In New york could potentially
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 6: still get up for that because they did lose To
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 6: dallas here at. Home BUT i think just the games
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 6: surrounding this, game to, me this makes it look like
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 6: they're not gonna pay as much attention To dallas. HERE
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 6: i think the spot sets up better For, dallas even
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 6: though they're less. Rested dallas is already in The. East
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 6: they just Played. Toronto that was an easy win for.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 6: Them they Beat connecticut, barely and then they were able
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 6: to play better Against toronto last time.
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 5: Out not big. Games this is a big game for
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 5: them Against New.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 6: York this is the biggest game For dallas since The
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 6: Commissioner's cup. Break so they just had a couple of
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 6: easy wins Against connecticut And. TORONTO i think they're going
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 6: to have their sites set on The liberty. Here it's
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 6: a bad spot for The. Liberty the money agrees with
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 6: me on this. One sixty percent of the tickets on The,
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 6: liberty fifty five percent of the cash On. Dallas it
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 6: looks like you have to get four and a half
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 6: or four, now SO i apologize for. That it was
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 6: five WHEN i looked this, morning there were fives still.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 6: Around i'd still take it at four and a half
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 6: or four, though just you know you're not to get
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 6: quite the best number. There BUT i still think it's
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 6: probably worth it grabbing them as a dog for what it's.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 6: WORTH i think they were a five point underdog the
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 6: last time they were In New, york so the number
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 6: hasn't really changed that. Much AND i Think, dallas like
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 6: we know That dallas is better than what we thought
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 6: they were back then, too, probably so we're gonna Take
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 6: dallas plus the five, there even THOUGH i Know dallas
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 6: is not a good defensive. TEAM i do understand, that but,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 6: yeah we're gonna go with it. Anyway the other game
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 6: Is chicago And. Phoenix NOW i Think chicago is probably
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 6: in a bad spot because they just were In Las
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 6: vegas in that other Arena vegas was, playing and that
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 6: was a loss or not a loss for. Us that
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 6: was no play for us on the, show just BECAUSE
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 6: i basically said to wait and then the number wasn't
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 6: good enough, anymore and it would have been a win
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 6: at the number THAT i gave it out at early
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 6: in the.
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 5: Day But chicago should have. Covered, man they went to.
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 6: Overtime they Took vegas The Returney champs to, overtime and in,
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 6: Fact chicago's last two games we're both pretty good. Performances
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 6: the first one was a loss on the, show Which
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 6: chicago could have covered and should have covered that game,
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 6: too So i'm really pissed off about. That chicago should
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 6: have covered both. Games they fell flat or fell short
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 6: in both. GAMES i think they might fall flat, here,
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 6: man after those two huge games Against, vegas coming off
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 6: Taking vegas into, overtime and now you Play, phoenix who
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 6: hasn't really been playing that. Well they did lose To
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 6: phoenix early in the season here in this arena Of
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 6: phoenix won by, eight But i'm not gonna put that
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 6: much weight into. That phoenix is playing some better basketball
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 6: again right. Now AND i told You phoenix was not
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 6: as bad as their record. Looked they've won three in a,
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 6: row although they only won one out of The commissioner's.
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 6: Break now they do Have indiana, next but they're coming
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 6: up a blowout Of, seattle and that is really the
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 6: one maybe concern THAT i have is they just Beat
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 6: seattle by twenty, three so maybe they're feeling a little
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 6: bit good about, themselves and they do Have, Indiana, Vegas
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 6: minnesota all up, next SO i, guess, yeah maybe that is.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 5: Concerned there's a.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 6: Little bit of a look ahead, here So i'm not
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 6: gonna give this one out as a, play BUT i
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 6: still would Leave phoenix.
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 5: Here they're the better.
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 6: Team chicago could be in a pretty bad spot after
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 6: those Huge vegas, performances SO i would lay the points With.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 6: Phoenix it's at three and a half, here sixty nine
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 6: percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the cash On.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 6: Phoenix But i'm going With dallas and WHAT i think
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 6: is a pretty mega sandwich spot For New. York that
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 6: would be MY wnba playing AND i am gonna give
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 6: out A World cup play in the first, game which
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 6: Is argentina In egypt In. Atlanta argentina is coming in From,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 6: miami so it's not a bad travel. Spot both games
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 6: are in the afternoon, today by the, way so be.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 6: Aware this game's coming up in an hour at, noon
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 6: so we're gonna get it off right. Away argentina clearly
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 6: the better team Over. Egypt argentina is minus three to
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 6: ten on the three way. Line, NOW i don't know
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 6: if you you know you understand the way THAT i
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 6: handicap if you know What i'm gonna do in this.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 5: GAME i actually think that number is.
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 6: Low LIKE i saw this number at like two eighties
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 6: to eighty something On, argentina And i'm, like, really, LIKE
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 6: i Think argentina is the way better team Over egypt.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 6: Here SO i actually think there's a little bit of
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 6: value With argentina, here AND i think it's because of
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 6: what they did in their last, game Which i'll talk
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 6: about in a. Minute, egypt by the, WAY i think
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 6: it's coming into this game From Kansas, City No, Arlington, texas,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 6: sorry so they are traveling a little bit more for This.
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 5: Argentina, now they went into extra.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 6: Time but the reason WHY i Like argentina is they
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 6: went into extra time against Cape. Verde, dude and everybody
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 6: is Giving argentina, shit, like, Oh, argentina they're totally vulnerable,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 6: here like they almost lost To Cape. Verde did they really?
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 6: Though did they? REALLY i know they won on an
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 6: own goal in extra, time and everybody's, like, oh you, Know,
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 6: argentina they like they deserve to lose this.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 5: Game no they.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 6: Didn't if you look at what happened in this game Cape,
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 6: verde they did not put up much offense in this
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 6: game at.
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 5: All this should have been an easier.
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 6: Win look at the stat, Dude argentina expected goals two
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 6: point twenty six two point four to, Seven so basically
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 6: this tells you this was a two Nothing argentina. Win in,
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 6: reality they won the possession battle pretty. Significantly they had
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 6: way more shots on. Goal Cape verde had zero big,
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 6: chances whatever that even. Means but that still somehow they scored.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 6: Two where AGAIN i told, you based on the way
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 6: the game played, out they actually.
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 5: Should have scored. Zero so this game was not what
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 5: it looked.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 6: Like AND i Know argentina had to go into extra,
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 6: time so, yeah maybe they'll tire them. Out BUT i
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 6: look at it more Like argentina looked worse than they actually.
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 5: Are it was a misleading. Result they took a huge
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 5: scare and.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 6: They're not gonna Overlook egypt now Because argentina took a
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 6: big scare Against Cape. Verde egypt is better Than Cape.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 6: Verde argentina's not gonna Overlook egypt And egypt you want
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 6: to talk about exerting. Yourself they had to go to,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 6: penalties so they went into extra time and they had
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 6: to play penalty into penalty kicks to Beat, australia AND
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 6: i think that's pretty For egypt to have to do,
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 6: that Because australia.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 5: Sucks.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 6: Dude you, Know, egypt they have not faced a Difficult
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 6: World cup. Pier, okay like they had a draw With,
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 6: belgium WHICH i know that looks, good especially After belgium
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 6: crushed THE us, yesterday WHICH i WISH i gave that
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 6: out as a Play. BELGIUM i, MEAN i Think belgium
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 6: just Overlooked egypt in the first game, whatever and then
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 6: All egypt did since then is Beat New, zealand Draw
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 6: iran and almost lose To. Australia none of those teams are.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 6: Good that's not. Good egypt is not.
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 5: Good you.
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 6: Know penalty kicks is a really dramatic thing to have to.
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 6: DO i Think argentina is gonna refocus because they got
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 6: scared by a very inferior.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 5: Opponent and that was. Misleading LIKE i, Said.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 6: Argentina statistically won that game way more Easily egypt by the.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 6: Way they did Give australia an own goal in this,
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 6: game So egypt should have won probably in, REGULATION i.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 6: Guess but if you look at the stats in this.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 6: Game they didn't win the game by that. Much they
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 6: did win the boz, battle they wont expected goals one
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 6: point three to two to point eight, Four but this
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 6: basically tells you it was a one to one game
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 6: and neither team had much offense at all in this.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 6: Game SO i don't, know, man If egypt is not
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 6: able to put up a bunch of offense Against, Australia,
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 6: like how much offense do you really expect out of
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 6: them in a game Against, argentina who's way way. Better,
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 6: uh this is the best, bet by the, way and
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 6: you can probably guess what it. IS i think we're
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 6: getting a good number on, this to be. Honest we're
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 6: gonna take the spread With argentina minus one and a
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 6: half AND i found this at minus one zero, Three so,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 6: yes we need them to win by. Two BUT i
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 6: mean this seems like a really good price to. Me,
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 6: LIKE i think this is a pretty decent sized mismatch.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 6: Here ARGENTINA i think is in a much more focused spot,
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 6: here better travel spot as.
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 5: WELL i think they're being overlooked because of that last.
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 6: Game Oh argentina sucks, Now, Yeah, No they're not gonna
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 6: have a difficult.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 5: Time with The.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 6: EGYPT i think they're gonna get this thing. DONE i
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 6: think they should win this game by multiple. Goals let's get, it.
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 6: Man AND i think this is the right way to
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 6: play this. AGAIN i thought that the three way line
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 6: and the spread actually were cheaper THAN i expected them
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 6: to be, here SO i think there might be a
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 6: little bit of. VALUE i, Mean argentina is still one
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 6: of the top, teams, MAN i mean they have some
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 6: of the best odds to, win although some of that
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 6: is because their path is, easy but this is part
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 6: of that easy. Path egypt is not a very formidable.
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 6: Opponent so we're going With, SORRY i gotta refresh, this
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 6: but we're gonna go with The argentina. There, NOW i
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 6: couldn't really read the market as far as action. Network
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 6: argentina is getting a lot of public, action which doesn't
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 6: really surprise, me and they're supposed to, win but we're
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 6: finding a different way to play. That and Then switzerland
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 6: And columbia is a much more competitive matchup In. Vancouver
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 6: it's Interesting colombia is the better team there at plus
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 6: one twenty. Five if you saw my bracket, SPECIAL i
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 6: Have argentina And colombia advancing in these two, games by the,
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 6: way AND i got all these matchups correct. Too so
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 6: the only team that's made it to The final eight
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 6: THAT i do not have rights so.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 5: Far in my bracket Was. MOROCCO i had.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 6: The netherlands, there BUT i have all the other teams
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 6: that have made it to this point correct so, Far,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 6: yes Including belgium And. Norway so, yeah this, game, YES
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 6: i Have columbia. Winning they're the better, team but it's, close,
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 6: dude plus one twenty five on the three. WAY i
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 6: THINK i am gonna lean To columbia, here BUT i think.
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 5: It's a close, call. Dude, Switzerland switzerland really just has.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 6: Not been battle. Tested they drew With, cutter which is not.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 6: Good they Beat bosnia not, impressive ALTHOUGH i gave Out
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 6: switzerland in that game if you, remember Because bosnia was
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 6: coming off some overperformance And switzerland.
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 5: Had underperformed majorly Against.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 6: Cutter SO i was, like, Yes switzerland's gonna come out
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 6: with force here and just easily beat this Inferior bosnia.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 6: Team that was a win on the. Show that was
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 6: one of the Biggest oh, SORRY i forgot to put
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 6: my record.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 5: UP i.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 6: Apologize, YEAH i think this is the most recent one
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 6: with the one oh. YESTERDAY i keep forgetting to do
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 6: that one at eighty nine and ten last.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 5: Night three.
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 6: Days still pretty good percentage, there and almost all these
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 6: players are at a minus one forty money line or
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 6: cheat or, less you, know Like i'm not playing huge.
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 6: Favors except they did give Out switzerland minus one eighty
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 6: in this. GAME i just thought that was the right
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 6: way to play. That, anyway what Did switzerland do after?
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 6: That they Beat, canada not impressive, really and then they
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 6: Beat algeria to advance in the knockout.
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 5: Round still not really that.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 6: Impressive columbia is going to be the best team they've
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 6: faced so, far so it's not gonna be. Easy colombia
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 6: is more battle tested basically just because they Played. Portugal
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 6: that was their big. Game they had a draw Against.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 6: Portugal they did play well Against. Portugal other than, that,
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 6: YEAH i mean they beat it Was, bekistan they Beat Dr,
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 6: congo which other teams were unable to, do and then
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 6: they Beat ghana to win their their game. Here that
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 6: was In Kansas, city by the, Way so speaking of
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 6: the travel, here the travel does actually Benefit. Switzerland switzerland
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 6: is staying In vancouver for This switzerland last played In.
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 6: Vancouver columbia's having to come in From Kansas, city so
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 6: the travel spot is worse For, columbia but their first
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 6: game was more. IMPRESSIVE i know we won With ghana
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 6: plus the one a half goals in this, game BUT
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 6: i THINK i got lucky on that. One, DUDE i
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 6: don't THINK i should have made that. PLAY i thought
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 6: it was gonna be a low scoring, Game like you,
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 6: KNOW i went into just the fact That ghana hadn't
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 6: allowed a lot of goals throughout The World, Cup columbia
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 6: hadn't scored a. Lot and, yeah we got the win
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 6: With ghana plus one and a, half But columbia should
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 6: have won the game two to nothing like this was
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 6: kind of a misleading. Final columbia won the. Game ghana
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 6: put up no offense in this. Game switzerland is gonna
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 6: be better Than, Ghana there's no question about. That But
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 6: colombia was pretty good in this game two to basically
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 6: zero expected.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 5: Goals won the possession.
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 6: Battle ghana had no shots on, goal so they basically
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 6: didn't even have a chance to. Score colombia put eight
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 6: shots on, goals So ghana definitely saved us with their. Goaltending.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 6: There we got a little bit lucky. There colombia was.
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 6: Good they were better than they looked in that. GAME
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 6: i Think colombia has been a little bit more, impressive
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 6: even though they're at a travel. DISADVANTAGE i believe the
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 6: cash percentages back In. Colombia WHEN i looked on action
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 6: networking to See switzerland is getting a little bit more public.
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 6: Activity colombia maybe a little bit more under the. RADAR
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 6: i Got columbia winning this one in my. Bracket i'll
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 6: Link columbia in that. One BUT i like The argentina
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 6: look better, there AND i think that's, it, man that's
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 6: gonna do it my place. Today or The Chicago cubs
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 6: on the money, Line Cleveland indians on the money, line
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 6: WHICH i added last, minute BUT i don't even love
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 6: That cubs. PLAY i don't know those are both starting pitching.
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 6: Matchup cleveland is more of a it's a situational play.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: Too.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 6: Though we're On dallas plus five the. Wings hopefully we
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 6: can fly to a win. There we have to GET
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 6: wnba back on, track. Dude so that's the W nba
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 6: Played dallas plus the points and Then World cup's gone
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 6: well for me, surprisingly so we're gonna lay the one
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 6: and a half With, argentina and WHAT i think is
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 6: a good to do? That that's gonna do it? HERE
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 6: i Know egypt is not?
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 5: Good, yes? Saa what's? Up Man? Sala Mohammed, sala Not Robert,
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 5: sala the former or not? Former he will Former jets? Coach?
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 6: RIGHT i?
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 5: Think what is he still.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 6: Defensive coordinator right For San? Francisco or is he now
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 6: a head Coaching, no he's the head coach Of tennessee.
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 5: Now, RIGHT i don't. KNOW i forget where the hell
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 5: is he? NOW i?
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 6: Forget but, Yeah Mohammed, Sala, yeah he's the best player On.
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 6: EGYPT i think he's not that. GOOD i don't know
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 6: much about the The English Premier.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 5: League, man you know more THAN i. Do you Like
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 5: messi two plus? GOALS i.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 6: DON'T i would not do that a specific player to
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 6: score two?
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 5: Goals are you kidding?
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 6: Me? No you know WHAT i don't like the the
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 6: individual player to score a goal prop is always you're
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 6: never getting a good price on, It and on a
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 6: star player Like messi who's had a Good World, cup
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 6: you're not getting any value on.
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 5: THAT i don't like.
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 6: That. OBVIOUSLY i Like argentina AND i would not disagree
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 6: with you On argentina going over their team. TOTAL i
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 6: would probably agree with, that which is probably a two
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 6: and a, half BUT i like the spread at minus
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 6: one and a.
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 5: Half that's what we're doing and that's. It it's gonna do.
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 6: It learn it tone On, twitter learn it tone On,
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 6: instagram like subscribe to the channel. Here we got to
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 6: get to five, hundred, man let's start making more money
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 6: out of. This we're on, Audio, Apple, Spotify, spreaker check
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 6: that stuff.
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 5: Out what else DO i have covered in?
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 6: You because my yuke channel on YouTube although again my
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 6: voice has been killing, Me, pagreon dot comver, slash learned a,
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 6: TONE i put some some of my recent yuke stuff
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 6: is up on that feed, now so check that out
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 6: if you want to support me that. Way loser casts
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 6: will be on, tonight and also be on the lookout
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 6: FOR i was On here's The, thing which is With
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 6: snoop who's from The pick Is in podcast THAT i
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 6: was also on, Recently here's The. Thing we had a
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 6: conversation conversational podcast that's gonna up today at some, point
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 6: so be on the lookout for.
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 5: THAT i believe that's gonna be on.
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 6: YouTube and then, uh The New York GIANTS G spot.
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 6: PODCAST i don't know what to tell you about, that
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 6: but it should happen at some. Point that's gonna do.
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 6: It for, NOW i appreciate. It.
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 5: Everybody, Peace but don't you go.
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: Quiet don't you fade from the.
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 2: Floor your name still means something, new somebody for.
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: Show put the glass, down, baby look at.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 4: Me no.
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: Hold, on hold, on, lating no.
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 4: Hold, on hold on and me for. You that, byes.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: Crown hold on, no stay with me, now
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 4: H