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College Football Week 4 BEST BETS | Misranked Teams? · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: hold on Let me pull you out That fellow fights
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: hard But he don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: On, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: This is going to be the College Football Week 4 edition.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Is that right? Is it Week 4? I don't even know, man.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: It always feels like it flies by. I did... a
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: WNBA playoff bracket earlier tonight. So you guys can go
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: check that out. It took me like 10 minutes. Great show, everybody.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Great show. You can go check that one out. Do
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: not talk to me in the chat about this football
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: game that's going on right now. Please do not mention it.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: I am not happy. I should not have added this
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: to my card. The Cal play, I mean, we got Arizona, right?
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: The D-backs. So my read on Major League Baseball was
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: good as far as which game I picked. Don't talk
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: to me about this college football game. I'm going to
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: give you some college football plays for tomorrow. I believe
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: I have five of them. I think I've narrowed this
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: down to the games that I actually like the most here.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: You know me. I'm going to go through all this.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about all the games that are
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: on TV, all the ranked games, et cetera. Let's do this.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: Number one, Texas is at number 14, Tennessee at noon
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Eastern on ABC. One of the big games of the day.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Don't know if this is the college game day game
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: or not, because I never do. I can tell you
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: that Texas is not actually the best team in the country.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: If you look at the odds makers and the power
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: ratings guys and what they do, Texas, they're a good team,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: but they're not number one. Tennessee, I don't know how
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: sold we should be on Tennessee yet. This game is
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: not going to be a game that I'm going to
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: get involved in, but It's a type of game that
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I do tend to look towards the home underdog. I
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: know this game is getting all hyped. Trump is going
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: to be in attendance at this game. There's all this
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: crazy stuff going on here. Texas, as far as the situation,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: we faded them last week and they did not cover.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: That was one of our wins last week. It was
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: the only win that we had last week because it
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: felt like everything pushed last week. Texas was coming up
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: with a huge comeback win over Ohio State. That's why
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: they're ranked number one right now. But then They beat
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: UTSA last week, and they didn't cover okay, but now
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Texas is facing their first true road game. I don't
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: love that as a spot for teams when they haven't
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: faced a true road game yet on the season. I
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: know they've done it before. These guys have played in
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: college before or whatever, but it's usually a tough spot.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: First true road game, you've got to go to a
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: hostile environment. Tennessee is also undefeated, although they really haven't
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: played anybody yet. Their one good win was on the
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: road against Georgia Tech, and Yeah, I mean, I thought
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: that Georgia Tech would play tougher in that game and
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: cover the spread, and they didn't. So Tennessee performed better
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: than I thought they would in that game. Tennessee's done
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: nothing wrong yet. This is going to be basically their
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: biggest game of the season, really, with the number one
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: team coming into their place. Texas is probably more like
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: the seventh or eighth best team, man. Tennessee ranked 14th,
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: maybe about accurate. I'm not entirely sure about that. I'd
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: have to look at what the power ratings guys say.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Texas is the favorite on the road here, but they're
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: not a huge favorite. Where the hell are they? They're
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: down from 5.5 to about a 4.5-point favorite here, maybe 5.
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  Speaker 2: So the money looks like it has somewhat come in
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: towards the Tennessee side. 66% of tickets, 50% of the
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: cash on Texas. Money appears to be backing the home
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: dog here. I'll agree with that. It's not a strong
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: opinion for me, but I'll lean Tennessee plus the points
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: here as well. It looks like it's a pretty high total,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: really higher than I'd expect for a Texas game. But
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: these teams, I think, have both been kind of playing
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: like high speed offense so far. So Texas, you think
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: of more of a defensive team as more of a
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  Speaker 2: defensive team. But the totals in the mid 50s, maybe
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: this is a game that's going to go over Tennessee.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: You do think with Hypo, you think of them as
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: more of like a high flying offense and maybe if
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: they can control the pace. Maybe that is what will
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: happen in that game, but I got not a whole
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: lot in that game. Illinois at number seven, Ohio State.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: This is, again, the rankings makers have overreacted, man. I'm
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: telling you. I'm not going to say that Ohio State's
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: definitely going to cover this number or anything like that.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I think Illinois sucks, though, and Ohio State, power ratings
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: guys will tell you they're the best team in the country.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: I believe they pretty much have Ohio State number one,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Notre Dame number two. and Indiana probably number three, although
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: maybe not after tonight. Indiana did not look very good,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: or maybe Northwestern's better than we think. I don't know.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to think about that game yet.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: I think we should fade Northwestern in their next game.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: I think that's what we should think about it. But anyway, yeah,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: Ohio State's under-ranked right now just because they took that
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: loss to Texas. Like, you're really going to dock them
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  Speaker 2: six ranking spots just because they lost to Texas on
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: the road? Okay. I mean, other than that, Ohio State's
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: just beaten up bad teams Ball State Kent State I
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: mean okay you can only play who's in front of
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: you and hilariously those teams are playing each other this
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: week by the way in what maybe I would say
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: that's that's the worst game of the week but I
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: think there's an even worse game that I'm gonna actually
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: mention on the show I don't think I'm gonna mention
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Ball State Kent State otherwise unless it's actually a TV
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: game I don't think it is but that I don't
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: have an opinion on that game anyway it's it's a
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: hideous game Anyway, Ohio State at home against Illinois. They
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: do have a big ranked opponent up next with Iowa,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: so maybe Ohio State does have one eye looking ahead here.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe Illinois is the right side here, but you're looking
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: at two teams that are both 2-1 here, but come on.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: We know Ohio State's clearly the way better team here,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: and they're laying a lot of points, obviously. They're laying 27.5 here.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: The line really hasn't moved a whole lot. It looks
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: like some books might have a little bit lower than that.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: although 27 is a somewhat key number in football. 87%
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 73% of the cash on Ohio State. I mean,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: if you're going to play Illinois, I would get the 27.5
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: if you can. If you're going to take Illinois State,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: it looks like a lot of the books don't have
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: it anymore. I think you'd still find it at FD,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: and maybe there's another spot that has it. I don't know.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: It looks like it is dropping, though. According to those
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: percentages I just read off, it does look like the
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: money's coming in a little bit towards Illinois here. I
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: don't want to do it. I mean, I think Illinois
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: is a bad team, dude. I really do. They lost
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  Speaker 2: outright to Duke as a favorite. And that game where
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: they beat UAB by 19, they actually got outgained by UAB.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: And I mentioned that. I was surprised UAB won the
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: game earlier tonight outright, man. I did not expect that.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: I thought Navy was the right side in that game,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: but the money was disagreeing with me on it. Maybe
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I should listen to the money, although I agreed with
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: the money on Cal, and that's not going to be
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: a winner. So isn't that just great? Even though they
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: opened the game up 7-0, but whatever. The fact that
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Illinois got outgained at home by UAB. I almost said USB. Yeah,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: we're talking about computer peripherals?
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: No.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: But the fact they got outgained by UAB. That's a
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: bad sign, and it's Illinois' first true road game as well,
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: so I don't really want them for that reason either.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: If you force me to give you a lean on this,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: I guess I would say Illinois plus the points. I mean,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: just because you kind of know you're not really going
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: to get any value laying the points with Ohio State,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: but again, I do think the rankings makers have overreacted
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: and have Ohio State a little bit underrated right now.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: But this could just be a game where Ohio State
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: just kind of goes through the motions, so I don't
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: like the game at all. That's noon on Fox. Noon
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: on TNT, Sam Houston State, or Sam Houston now, I guess,
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: is at Texas Tech, number 11. Texas Tech, they haven't
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: looked that great so far, really, at all. They've underperformed
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: in basically every one of their games they've underperformed so far,
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  Speaker 2: even though they're 3-0. They beat Abilene Christian, Oregon State
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  Speaker 2: on the road, and then they beat Houston last week,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: but I believe they didn't cover in any of those games.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech almost lost to Houston last week. Now, Houston,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: they're solid. They got a lot of returning starters this year.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: They got a good defense. I think Texas Tech is
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit down this year. They were supposed to get,
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: I guess, Sorsby, the quarterback from Cincinnati, who was good
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: last year, but he was gambling on games, so I
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: guess that means he can't play. I don't know. To me,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: I think it's kind of BS, but Texas Tech has
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: had to use Hammond as their quarterback, which I didn't
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: think was going to be that bad because he did
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: play last year for a bit. But whatever. I forget,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: their quarterback was Morton, right, who's on the Patriots now. Yeah,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: when Morton was hurt, Hammond filled in for him. But anyway,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech, they have an extra day off because they
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: played on Friday. That was that big game against Houston.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: I think it was a bigger game for Houston, though.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: The fact that Texas Tech was a big favorite in
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: that game, and they almost lost the game. Houston, I believe,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: that would have tied the game right at the end.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: So that was a close call for Texas Tech. And
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: you know I talk about big favorites when they have
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: a close call like that. A lot of times it
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: scares them back into focus. So normally I would say
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: that might mean you want to lay the points to
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech coming off a game like that. However... I'm
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: not sure that you really want to do that here
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: because I do think that was still kind of a
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: big game against Houston. Texas Tech does play Colorado next,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: which is another conference game. So they have an out-of-conference
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: game sandwiched in between these two conference games. Sam Houston,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: as the little brother in the state of Texas, I
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: would think would at least try to step up their
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: level of effort here for this game. Sam Houston, they've
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: actually played not so badly so far. I know they
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: don't have an FBS win yet, but they had close
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: games against Troy and Tulsa. I mean, there's not really
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: that much of a shame in losing to those teams.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Those teams are not really that bad, so I don't
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: think there's much of a shame in that. And then
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: they destroyed Nichols to get a win finally, which I
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: think will give Sam Houston some confidence and some momentum
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: when you you finally get that first win of the
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: season and it's not against a good team you know
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: that'll just give you confidence but not make you over
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: confident going into the next game so all that being
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: said I think I would slightly lean Sam Houston here
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: I know me and all these underdogs but you know
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: I get selective with my plays though but the money
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: seems to agree on this 73% of tickets 59% of
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: the cash on Texas Tech they're a huge favorite 34
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: and a half but if you like uh Sam Houston here,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think you're going to be able to get
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: the 35 anymore. And this did open 37 and a half.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: So it looks like some real money has played Sam
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Houston in this one. And of course, 35 is the
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: key number. And it wound up being very key in
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: that Michigan game last week where the play that I
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: gave out was a push. Just if you got the
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: best number of 35, which I did. But in this game, yeah,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're missing that key number of 35. Although,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: as I said last week, Yeah, it's a key number, but,
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, when you get up to numbers that are
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: this high, it usually doesn't matter as much, although it
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: did matter in that game. But I think I would
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: still lean towards taking the points of Sam Houston if
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I had to play that game, but I don't want
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: to play it. ESPN at 12 has Wake Forest at
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: number 16, Louisville. Louisville, I mean, they've looked good so far.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Their only loss is that close loss to Ole Miss
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: in the first week. They beat me when I gave
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: up Villanova. I guess I shouldn't give up FCS teams.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Ever again. Villanova, not a bad FCS team, though. Louisville
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: destroyed them. Then Louisville looked pretty good again last week,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: and they beat SMU. That was a slight lean that
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: I had on the show towards Louisville in that one.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: They were ranked lower than SMU. Now they're coming off
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: that big ranked game, man. Could be a little bit
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: of a letdown here for them coming into this game
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: against Wake here. Wake, though, I mean, they played pretty
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: well against Miami last week. And that was their first loss.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: That was a big primetime game, remember? So Wake does
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: have an extra day off, because I'm pretty sure that
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: was a Friday night game, I believe it was. Big
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: game for Wake, and they covered against Miami. Although they
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: weren't really that close in the game. They lost by 13,
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: and Miami was, you know, a 21-point favorite. Wake was
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: losing by double digits right near the end anyway. Like,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: they were not close to winning this game. But they...
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Did hang within the number, of course. Still a big
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: game for Wake, so I don't necessarily love Wake coming
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: off a game like that. But I think if you
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: forced me to give you a lean on this, I
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: think I would have to lean towards Wake getting the
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: points here. Yet again, another underdog. But it's also a
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: game of numbers, you know what I mean? If you're
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: really going to splash the board and play all these games,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: I think if you take all the leans that I
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: give out, I think you should win at least more
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: than you lose. But of course... You're not forced to
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: play every game. That's the benefit you have. You get
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: to select games, be really selective, and only play the
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: games that you feel the strongest about. This looks like
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: a really strong market read on Wake, though. 73% of
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: tickets on Louisville. Public's on Louisville. The line really doesn't
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: look that high. Louisville, they're a 12.5-point favorite. It opened 13.5,
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: so it has not crossed through any real key number here.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: 80% of the cash on Wake It's kind of a
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: high total, though, in the high 50s. Because you know me,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: I like underdogs better when it's a low total. But, yeah,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: the money seems to be on Wake in that one.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: I'll agree, but I don't exactly love the spot either
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: team is in, although Louisville's coming up the bigger and
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: better performance, if you will, and Wake has an extra
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: day off at the very least. Colorado at Baylor on ESPN2.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: This game, this looks really ugly to me, man. I mean,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Baylor really didn't look that good last week against Louisiana Tech.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Baylor was at home and they were only winning that
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: game by 10 late in the game not great as
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: a big favorite I assume yeah there were 20 and
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: a half point favorites in that game they didn't almost
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to say they almost lost because that
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be true but they were up 10 in the
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter after a little after a lot tech came
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: back a little bit in that game not a great
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: performance for Baylor I'm not really impressed with Colorado either
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: so far even though they're two and one Yeah, they
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: upset Georgia Tech in week one. Georgia Tech looks like
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: they're down this year. And then Colorado ran their mouths
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: last week at Northwestern, and Northwestern absolutely drilled them. But
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: that loss doesn't look as bad for Colorado now that
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Northwestern looked pretty good tonight against Indiana. So I don't know, man.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: Maybe that loss isn't that bad for Colorado. But they
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: are playing a second road game in a row and
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: a third road game in four weeks, I believe. That's
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: not great. That's a tough spot, playing a third road
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: game in four weeks, man, in any in football, just
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: in either college or pro. And Colorado does have Texas
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: Tech next, which is going to be a pretty big game,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: ranked opponent there. I guess I'd slightly lean Baylor in
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: this one, even though Colorado did look really bad last week.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: They might have a little bit of a look ahead,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: and Baylor looked pretty bad as well. If you want Baylor,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: you've got to lay a lot of points here. You've
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: got to lay nine and a half. The line hasn't
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: really moved. 81% of tickets, 89% of the cash on Baylor.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: But it would worry me because the public is on
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Baylor here. Although I don't think it's going to be
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: a high-volume game, even though it is Coach Prime involved
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: in this game. But the fact that Baylor has not
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: moved off the 9.5 being public, you would think it
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: would hit that key number 10. And the fact that
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: it hasn't tells you that the oddsmakers are okay with
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: taking that money on Baylor, laying the points like that. So,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean... To me, I do slightly lean Baylor,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: I guess. That game I have almost no read on, though. So,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: you know, do it at your own risk, I guess,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: if you want to play that game. Or disagree with me,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: you know, whatever. Even though I don't like it when
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: people disagree with me, but, you know, whatever. I mean,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be right about everything, but I
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: get stubborn, man. Virginia Tech at my Boston College Eagles here.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: Not necessarily my, because I didn't go to BC, but
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: they're the Boston area school that's the biggest program. But
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: they suck at everything right now. Football, they usually are
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: at least good enough to make a bowl, but we'll see.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: BC looked really bad last week against FCS Maine. Maybe
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Maine got up for it, because BC's kind of a
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: bigger brother to them in New England. It was a
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: bad game for BC, though. They only won the game
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: by six points. They were winning the game by more
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: than that. I think they were winning by 12 in
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, but still not a good result from BC.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe they just went through the motions and didn't care
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: because they were coming off a big primetime win, at
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: least over Rutgers. Maybe BC will show a little more
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: effort here against Virginia Tech. It's a little bit of
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a weird spot for Virginia Tech. undefeated by the way
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: in the James Franklin era but Virginia Tech really has
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: not been tested yet their biggest win was last week
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: at Maryland now they got a second straight road game
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: they got to go up to BC you know going
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: up to Boston and playing in what's going to be
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: really bad weather by the way we're going to be
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: hitting we're going to be getting hit by a nor'easter
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: so but it's football so we'll see if they decide
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: to delay this game or whatever which I don't even
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: like I think you should just play in the elements
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: man But it's going to be bad weather here, although
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: it looks like it'll be 60 degrees, so not cold,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: but bad, bad weather here, man. And the weather could
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: have an effect. It's probably going to lower the total
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: in this game quite a bit because the wind is
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: going to be extreme. I think people overreact to weather,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: like if it's raining or whatever, people overreact to that
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: and think it's going to impact the offenses negatively more
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: than it will. But wind definitely has an effect on
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: the throwing, on the kicking. The money has come in
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: on the under on this, and the total's completely plummeted.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: It's dropped seven points. That's because of the weather, though,
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: so you really have to decide whether that's an overreaction
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: on the total. It's dropped from 53.5 to 46.5, basically.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: It's because of the weather. Again, is it an overreaction?
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: It's hard to say. The wind is going to make
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: the offense difficult, I will say that. but maybe the
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: line has dropped a little bit too much here. The
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: money is actually playing Virginia Tech here. 69% of tickets,
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: 81% of the cash on them at about two touchdown favorite.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: minus 14. They haven't really moved off of that number.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I mean, we already looked at
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech's schedule. I don't really see anything to really
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: latch on to as far as the situation. Well, Virginia
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Tech does have a primetime home game up next against Pitt, though.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: That might be a little bit of a look ahead.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: That's going to be a big game. It's a Friday game,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, at home against Pitt, who is one
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: of the better teams in their conference. They're both 3-0,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech and Pitt. So maybe for me, a slight lean,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: I guess, to Boston College in this one for me.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: And the weather might affect Virginia Tech's travel in here
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: as well, so I don't know. CBS Sports, 12 p.m.,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: has San Diego State at Toledo. Weird travel spot for
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: San Diego State to have to go to Ohio and
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: play Toledo here. So San Diego State, they have not
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: left the state of California yet. They haven't played that well.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: They're 1-2, but they lost to UCLA and James Madison,
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: and UCLA has James Madison's old coach. So they basically
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: had to face the same system twice, and they didn't
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: win either of those games. Maybe it was a system thing.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know. We don't know what San Diego State
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: is yet, I don't think, although... they're in the new
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: Pac-12 here, but it's kind of similar to what the
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: Mountain West was, so I'm kind of expecting San Diego
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: State to still be kind of competitive in this conference,
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: but we'll see. Weird spot, though, to have to leave
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: the state of California for the first time and go
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: to Toledo for a game. It's going to be 9 a.m.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: their time, even though, you know, I talk about, I
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: think the West Coast teams going east is overrated as
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: far as how much of an impact it has. Again,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I think the East Coast teams going west, even though
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: we're about to lose fading one of those tonight here.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: I still think that's the worst spot because you're playing
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: really late on your biological clock. I think it's easier
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: to play early on your biological clock because you wake up,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: you know, you got your energy to start the day.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Whereas late in the day,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: I think, is when you're really losing that energy. Now,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: San Diego State, though, off of those games, I mean,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: those games weren't close against UCLA and James Madison, really.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to bounce back here, though.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: It's a weird spot, but I don't really want Toledo
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: either because Toledo's coming off an overtime game against Temple.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: It was a tough game, although Toledo was the favorite there.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: So you think Temple would be in a little bit
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: of a worse spot coming off of that. Temple didn't
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: do that bad today. I believe they played Army today, right?
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: I was correct about my lean on Army, but they
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: barely got there in that game. Temple, I think, was
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: in a little bit more of a difficult spot coming
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: off this overtime game because they were the underdog, and
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: they almost pulled off the upset Whereas Toledo maybe thinks, yeah,
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: we just kind of escaped with a win here. And
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: Toledo was the better team in this game. It was
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a misleading result. Toledo won the
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: yardage battle by more than 100 yards in this game,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: so they were the better team there. Toledo's not a
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: bad team. I know the MAAC blows as a conference,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: but Toledo is one of the best teams in that conference,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: possibly the best. they're up from a one and a
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: half point favorite to a three point favorite. You might
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: be able to find a two and a half somewhere.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: That's a pretty key move on Toledo, though. The fact
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: that it moved up to that key number three, there's
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: some real money on Toledo in this one. 71% of tickets,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: 87% of the cash on them. I don't have too
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: much of a reason to disagree with that. I think
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit of an odd spot for San
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Diego State leaving California for the first time on the season,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: so I'll probably agree with that and slightly lean Toledo,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: but You could have gotten it below three before. Now
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to, and I don't
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: think that number's coming back down because the public is
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: not playing San Diego State here. Even though they kind
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: of have the more name recognition here, they're just not
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: doing it. Virginia Tech and Pitt, what? Oh, yes. Biscuits, yes.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: As a West Virginia fan, I'm assuming you do not
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: like either of those teams. Yeah. So yeah, you're telling
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Netanyahu that there are Iranian nukes in that stadium, yeah.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Don't get my channel nuked, man. Colorado State and UTSA
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: is on ESPNU at noon Eastern. This game, I mean,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Colorado State, you'd think they kind of have more name
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: recognition in football than UTSA does, but you go and
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: you look at the line in this game, and UTSA
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: is like a double-digit favorite here in this one. So
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers are telling you UTSA is the considerably better
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: team right now. Colorado State is kind of a down
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: program right now, and UTSA, they've actually been fairly good
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: over the last few years. They're laying 13.5, 14, basically.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: It's gone up from 12.5, so it looks like there
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: is some real money on UTSA here. 55% of tickets,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: 71% of the cash on them. The fact that it's
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: hit this key number of 14... That includes one of
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: the Vegas Sharp books here that starts with a C.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: That kind of tells you something, although it looks like
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: a couple of the other, and the SP book as well,
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: but some of the other books are also at 14.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Some of them are actually at 14.5 now. If you
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: want to lay it with UTSA, you've got to find
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: the 14, though. Do not lay the extra hook on that,
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? The 14.5, find a 14 book.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: if you really like UTSA, but I just don't have
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: a strong opinion on this. Colorado State did just have
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: a big game against BYU. They took their first loss.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: A lot of times when a team takes their first loss,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: that will, just in of itself, that could hang that
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: team over into the next game because it's like you're
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: rolling along and then you take that first loss. Sometimes
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: it just kills your momentum. And it will be Colorado
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: State's first road game here. And that's a difficult spot
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: as well, facing a first true road game. So there
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: are some indicators that maybe UTSA is the right side here.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: And it seems like the public doesn't really want them
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: because the public doesn't recognize the name and they think, well,
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: both teams are 2-1 or whatever. Like, why would I
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: lay that double digits with the UTSA Roadrunners, with a
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: team that we don't know the name, right? UTSA, I mean,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: they're coming off that game against Texas, which was a
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: big game, but it was never close, even though they
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: covered which was a win, as I said on the show.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: But I probably do lean towards laying the points with
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: UTSA on that one. So there you go. It's not
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: all underdogs for me. Again, if you want me to
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: talk about any of these other games, I can. But
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: for time purposes, I'm skipping some of these ugly games.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: I'm hitting every one that's on TV, though, and all
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: the ranked matchups. Next game I'm going to talk about
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: is my first play I'm giving out on the show here.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: This is plain and simple, a letdown spot, and you
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: could wait on this and hope to maybe get a 21,
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: but I don't see any of them out here. We're
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: going to take South Alabama plus the points here. It
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: looks like it's 20.5 everywhere, but again, I think you
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: could wait because there's not a huge difference between 20
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: and 20.5, and maybe a 21 will show up, but
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: it looks like there's no juice on the 20.5, and
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: this game just has not moved off of this. It's
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: been 20.5 all week, and it literally has not moved
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: at all. And every book has the exact same number,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: pretty much, on this. Although, actually, it looks like at
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: the F book that sells shoddy merchandise, it looks like
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: they have a 21 now. I'll update it in the
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: show notes if I actually can find one. I would
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: still probably do it at 20 and a half, even
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: if you want to put a little less money on this.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: This is a letdown spot. We're fading Kentucky in this one.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Kentucky's the public side. Everybody saw what Kentucky did last week.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: It looked really good. They upset Texas A & M.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Huge win for them on the road. I think this
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: is a spot where they might just overlook their opponent, though.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: And this is a South Alabama team. It's not really
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: that bad. 80% of tickets, 74% of the cash on Kentucky.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: So the money is fading Kentucky here. It's not a
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: particularly low total, but it has gone down. There's been
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: some real money coming in on the over, or excuse me,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: on the under, excuse me, driving this thing down from
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: 56 to 54, basically, or 53 and a half. And
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: you know me, I like to take underdogs when the
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: total's lower. But at least here, it looks like the
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: money is really coming in on the under in this one,
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: even though it's not a particularly low total. That makes
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: me like this a little bit more, the fact that
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: the under is getting the money here. Like I said,
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: I think this is just plainly a letdown spot for Kentucky.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: They're coming off two huge games against Alabama, then upset
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: on the road at Texas A & M where they
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: upset them as 16.5-point underdogs. I think it's a fade
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: spot coming off a huge win like that for Kentucky.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: It was also a little bit misleading. They won the
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: game by 10, but Texas A & M did outgain them,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: although it wasn't by much. It was by 15 yards
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: or whatever this is. Yeah, can I do math anymore?
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: Texas A & M had two turnovers in the game,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: so they lost the turnover battle. A & M did,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: which screwed them a little bit. But yeah, this is
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: a misleading result. Based on the statistics, Texas A &
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: M should have squeaked out a win in this game statistically.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: So it's a misleading win, a big win for Kentucky.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: A huge upset. I think it's a letdown spot, and
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: they do resume SEC play next against a South Carolina
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: team that I believe beat them up last year, if
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. I think it was at South Carolina
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: as well. Let me see. So it's a little bit
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: of revenge for Kentucky, I'm pretty sure. Let me see.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Am I right about that? Yeah. It's weird they have
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: to play at South Carolina two years in a row
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: because I thought they always alternated. which team was at home,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: but whatever. Last year, Kentucky got destroyed at South Carolina.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: So they might look ahead to that, just remembering last year,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: and that might be a bigger game for them. They
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: do have LSU on deck after that as well. So
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: this is the game that means the least in Kentucky's
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: remaining schedule, man. So I think they might overlook it,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: even though these group of six guys teams or whatever
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: you want to call them is Sunbelt even in the
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: group of six maybe they're not I think they are
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: right because JMU is in this conference yeah like these
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: teams have not done well since the NIL and the
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: transfer stuff you know like the upper the power conference
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: teams have a bigger gap between them and the little
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: guys now than ever before. We talk more about that
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: in basketball than football, but it's the same thing. So
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: these group of six teams have not done well against
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: the power conference teams this year. In fact, I believe
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: only two of them have won outright so far. One
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: of them was Tulsa against Oklahoma State in the first week,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: and then the other one, I don't even remember what
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: the hell the other one was. But even so, we
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: don't need South Alabama to win this one. We just
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: need them to cover here. And South Alabama... They're coming
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: up with a win over Ohio, which was a game
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: where South Alabama was a seven-point favorite in this game,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: and they didn't play that well in the game, but
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: they were winning the game by more than what it
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: looks like towards the end. So what I think we're
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: looking at here is it was kind of a misleading result,
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: the fact they only won this game by five. They
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: did outgain Ohio by like 70 yards here, so they
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: were the better team in the game statistically at least,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: although they did have two takeaways in the game, one
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: the turnover battle and Didn't win by more, but whatever.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Really just simplified, it's a letdown spot for Kentucky. The
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: money seems to agree with this. Again, you could wait
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: and see if a 21 shows up. You'll wind up
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: getting at least 20 on this, I would presume. But
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: the 21's a very key number, of course, so that's
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: what I would be waiting for. See if we can
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: find it. We're going to take South Alabama plus the points.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: That game is at 1245 Eastern on the SEC Network.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: All right, Big Ten Network, 1.30 p.m. Weird time slot here.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: UCLA is at Maryland. UCLA under Chesney, I believe, who
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: came over. He's their coach. He came over from James
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: Madison after taking over there from Kurt Cignetti. He's got
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: UCLA off to a 3-0 start, man. But they beat Cal,
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: who is about to fuck us tonight. They beat San
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Diego State, who doesn't look that good so far. And
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: then they beat Purdue, who... are probably ass. So UCLA,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're 3-0, but they're a kind of unimpressive 3-0.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Now they've got to fly across the country, and they
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: have a big game up next where they fly all
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: the way back to the Pacific Coast and they play
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Oregon after this. So this is a weird spot for them,
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: an unfamiliar spot, having to go all the way East Coast,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: play Maryland, kind of a tricky travel spot, leaving California
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: for the first time this season. It's a bit of
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: a rough spot for UCLA. And the fact that they're
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: 3-0 and Maryland's only 2-1, And the price here is
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: a pick-em price. Like, you're just asking, pick the winner, basically.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: The public's going to take UCLA in this one. So
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be leaning Maryland in this game. Maryland's
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: coming off a loss to Virginia Tech. Now, it is
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: a little bit concerning that Maryland, you know, their resume
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: doesn't look good so far. Their two wins are against
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Hampton and UConn, but they did win those games very easily.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: And in that UConn game, I pointed out that Maryland
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: was a double-digit favorite at UConn, and it looked a
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: little bit weird. that they were that much of a favorite.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: So I did think that Maryland was going to cover that,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: which they did. So I was correct with that opinion. Maryland,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: I think they're a little bit under the radar, man.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: I think they're a little bit better than people think. Yes,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: they just lost at home to Virginia Tech. I believe
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech was probably about a five-point favorite. Oh, no,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: they were only two and a half. I thought they
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: were more of a favorite than that. My mistake. But anyway,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: it is interesting, though, that Virginia Tech... Was a heavier
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: favorite than UCLA here. So the odds makers are telling
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: you Virginia Tech's the better team than UCLA is here.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: And it's just a trickier spot for UCLA here. So yeah,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: I'm going to lean Maryland in this one. 69% of tickets,
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: 65% of the cash on UCLA. Does look a little
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: bit easy to play UCLA as the undefeated team here.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: So that is not what I would recommend here. Maryland
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: would be my lean in that one, plus the one
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: or one and a half or whatever. Maybe you could
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: get even two there. Loxley, yes. Yeah, I mean, he
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: might get fired, I guess, if Maryland doesn't do well.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: But what year is he? How many years has he
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: been at Maryland? I don't know, because I usually– dude,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: firing a coach after one or two years I think
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: is really stupid, by the way, because the thing is,
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: like if you ask professional bettors, the typical thing is
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: it takes a team three– It takes a coach three
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: years to really get a system like fully in, but
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: like that third year is usually when they take that
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: big leap forward. So that's usually kind of the rule
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: of thumb to some extent here, although obviously some teams
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: will break that rule and whatever, but you know. Peacock
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: at 2pm we have this battle of Indiana rivals it's
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: a very one-sided rivalry between number three Notre Dame and
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Purdue Notre Dame is a very legit team they're one
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: of the top teams in the country they have a
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: really easy schedule though so that's kind of the thing
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: like They're not really battle-tested here. I mean, they did
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: beat Wisconsin in the state of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: and they crushed them, but Wisconsin hasn't been good for
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: a while now. They killed Rice, and then last week,
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: it was kind of a lackluster-looking game for Notre Dame,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: where Michigan State kind of hung with them in that game.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Kind of interesting. They're in the Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan State
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: era there now. Notre Dame... Might even play a little
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: bit better coming off of that game. Now, it is
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: their first road game, but it's a really easy first
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: road game to have to deal with because they're staying
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: in Indiana and they're just going to Purdue, which they're
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: really familiar with. So it's not that bad for Notre Dame.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: And yes, maybe they will play a little bit better
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: after kind of a bad performance against Michigan State last week.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: But Purdue is going to have this game circled. You
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Like this is a huge game
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: for Purdue. They're the little brother here. This is going
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: to be their biggest game of the year pretty much,
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: so usually they're going to give you a max effort
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: in this game. Whether or not that'll be enough to
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: even cover this number, I don't know, because Purdue is
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: very bad. Purdue's only win is against FCS little brother,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Indiana State. Then they lost to Wake, and I talked
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: about that. They caught Wake in a good spot to
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: catch them, and Purdue still lost that game in multiple
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: overtimes or whatever, even in a good spot that Purdue
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: was in in that one. Wake had the short turnaround
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: look ahead to Miami coming up after that. And then, uh,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Purdue had to go out to the West coast to
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: play UCLA and really losing by 14 in a spot
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: like that. Isn't even really that bad, I will say.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: So that wasn't that bad of a performance for Purdue,
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: but now they're coming back from traveling to the West coast.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: So a lot of travel for Purdue. Uh, you know,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: they've traveled cross country each of the last two weeks.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: That's a little bit difficult too. They're doing that with
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: no buy. I'm pretty sure here. Um, Yeah, I have
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: to be better at checking which teams are coming off
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: of buys, but this week it's like mostly the service academies.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: So let's see here. Purdue, Notre Dame looks like they're
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: getting some of the money here. 79% of tickets, 87%
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, but they are really public
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: as well. The line hasn't really moved 27, 27 to
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: have it is not ticked up to that key number
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: of 28, which kind of tells me the odds makers,
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: they know they're going to get Notre Dame tickets here.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? And they've been okay with
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: not moving to that key number of 28. 27 is
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: also key, but 28, four touchdowns, you know. I don't know, man.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: This is a really difficult game to figure out. I'd
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: probably slightly lean towards taking the points with Purdue. I
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: really don't. I don't like it, man. Unfortunately, we have
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: a lot of these hideous games in our ESPN series.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: The ESPN game, because the ESPN game always gives you, like,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: these ugly games that are on TV and whatever, and
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: you have to pick those games against the spread. I'm like,
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: come on, man, just give us more competitive games to
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: pick against the spread. The more competitive games, I feel
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: like those games are always easier to play against the spread,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, even though I've... I've done my share
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: of games with big spreads so far this year, and
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: we've kind of been running at 500 in college football
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: so far, but some of that is because we took
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: two FCS losses, though. 2019, all right, so he's been
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: there for a long time, Maryland's coach, and he still
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: hasn't turned that program around. That's not a great sign.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: All right, Hawaii at Wyoming is at 3 p.m. on
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: the CW app. CW, people forget CW has football. It's
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: not just Buffy the Vampire Slayer and syndication and whatever
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: the hell else goes on in that channel. Wyoming has
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: not looked good so far. The professionals were high on
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: them in that first week against Colorado State. They got
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: absolutely destroyed. Their only win is against FCS Northern Colorado.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: They had a weird spot last week, though, having to
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: go out to Central Michigan, kind of an unfamiliar spot.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: environment to have to go into and they took that
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: loss now they're coming back home but they catch hawaii
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: who's not a particularly good team traveling to the mainland
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: here um they've lost their only road game so far
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: hawaii they did have to play in week zero in
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: stan at stanford they played pretty well in that game
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: really hawaii got their first win last week they got
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: new mexico state going out to hawaii that was actually
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: two weeks ago so hawaii is actually coming off a
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: bye So that should actually help Hawaii a little bit
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: with the extra time off to get to travel here.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Thing is, though, I don't like teams going into the
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: bye on a good note. That's kind of the thing.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: I think when a team goes into the bye on
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: a good note, sometimes it's like, well, you can't fix
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: anything because you just... won that game so it tends
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: to be just kind of like think about that win
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: and it kind of becomes a bad thing however that
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: was Hawaii's first win and a lot of times that
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: first win will actually give you positive momentum moving forward
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: because you get that monkey off your back so It
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: could go either way, really, for Hawaii here, but I
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: still don't really love Hawaii in these games where they're
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: on the road, like going to the mainland. I think Hawaii, much,
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: much better to play them at home. They have a
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: pretty good home advantage, and they're disadvantaged on the road
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: just because the travel is so ridiculous. Wyoming is getting
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: some of the money, it looks like. 52% of tickets,
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: 60% of the cash on them. This line has moved
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: through a key number. Hawaii opened four, and now they're
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: down to two and a half, basically. I don't know
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: if there's any injury involved here or not, but it
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: moved through that key number three. So if you do
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: like Wyoming, plus the points here, and I... probably do
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: lean that way that's where the money's coming in you've
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: missed the best number on it if you do like
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: that like you've missed the key number three so that's
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: not great you might be able to get it again
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: though but I don't know because the public's not really
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: coming in and playing Hawaii in this game either it
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: looks like so I don't know if you're going to
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: be able to get that three again here so you
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: kind of missed the boat on that one through that
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: key number although I already gave out a play that's
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: kind of lingering around a key number, but that one
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: I feel like because the public is playing against us,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: we might actually be able to get that key number.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: And I do have another one that's like that coming
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: up in a little bit that might, we might also
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: be able to get a better number on. Oklahoma at
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: number two, Georgia. I think Georgia's slightly overrated here. I
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: don't think they're actually the number two team. I think
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: they're probably like a top several team at the very
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: least in college football, but Probably not the number two team,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: as I already said. I think the top three teams,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: if you ask the real power ratings guys, they'll say
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Indiana, pretty much. Georgia, coming off
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: blowing out Arkansas. They've blown out all their opponents so far.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: But they haven't played anybody of note besides Arkansas. And Arkansas,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: at best, is kind of like a mid-team. team in
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: the SEC so whatever Georgia's now back home to face
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma this will be Georgia's most difficult opponent so far
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: for sure Oklahoma their offense hasn't looked great so far
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: even though they brought back a bunch of those guys
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: and Mateer put on a bunch of weight over the
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: offseason muscle weight I don't know if that's good for
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: a quarterback though but the one thing you can say
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: about Oklahoma though is their defense is good both these
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: defenses are good in fact this is a low total
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: in this game so it's possible that maybe you want
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: to look towards an under in this particular game. But
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: I do also lean to the Oklahoma side in this one.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, Georgia, under Kirby Smart, Georgia is not that
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: good as like a big favorite like this as far
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: as covering. They're not really great at that. Oklahoma, people
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: are going to remember them losing to Michigan. That didn't
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: look good. And then last week, they really didn't look
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: good against New Mexico. But I talked about that game
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: on the show. I put it in my pick seven entry.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: I did not put it on my card, unfortunately. That
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: was an easy cover for New Mexico. But look at
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: the spot Oklahoma was in. They were coming off the
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: huge game against Michigan, and yes, they were a favorite,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: and they lost the game, but it was still a
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: big ranked matchup, and we did get a win on
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: the show with that one, with Michigan. And Oklahoma had
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: this huge game on deck against Georgia, and after a bye,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: they're going to have the Red River rivalry against Texas
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: coming up after this too. So, I think Oklahoma's in
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: a bounce-back spot after that horrible game against New Mexico
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: where they were winning this game 7-6 in the third quarter.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma scored the last points in this game in the
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: third quarter, and New Mexico actually outpossessed them in this game.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: That is not really a good sign for Oklahoma. However,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma should have won this game more easily. They did
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: win the yardage battle by over 100 yards, even though
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: they didn't put up that many yards. Their defense was
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: still really good in the game. And Oklahoma turned it
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: over three times, which obviously really hurt them. So this
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: was a little bit of a misleading result. So I
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: think you have a couple of positives for Oklahoma here.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: They're coming off a performance that was misleadingly bad looking.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: And usually when you have a bad performance like that
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: as a huge favorite, which they're a 21 and a
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: half point favorite here, that team tends to bounce back
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: and play better in the next game. So I'm going
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: to lean Oklahoma in this one. I just don't have
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: much of a strong fade here. angle for georgia here
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: other than the kirby smart trends that i just gave
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: out or well i didn't even really give out a
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: specific trend but i can tell you that i've seen
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: people posting about it i forget what exactly what the
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: number was but he's not good ats as a coach
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: is like a big favorite in games such as this
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: 79 i think it's against other power conference teams or
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: something or maybe it's sec opponents i forget 79 of
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on georgia 51 of the cash on
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: oklahoma so the the real money looks like it is
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: backing Oklahoma in this one and the under, and that
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: total has dropped a little bit, uh, at some books,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: at least, well, it's kind of hanging around 44, I guess,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: for the most part. Um, so the, you know, the
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: fact that it's a low total, that makes me also
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: want to play the underdog, right? Uh, cause getting double
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: digit points with a low total like that, every point
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: matters more, you know what I mean? Um, in a
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: low total game like that. So it's easier for the
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: underdog to hang around if it's going to be a
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: low scoring game. So I like that as well. So
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: I lean Oklahoma. I do also agree with the under
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: in that game. I think you're looking at two good
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: defenses in this game. And I think that might be
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: what wins out. And it's a game where a lot
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: of times these big games like this play towards the
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: under because teams don't really want to make mistakes to
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: kind of play it closer to the vest. The defense
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: really gets up for it, et cetera. So that's what
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: I think makes sense in that game. Although I'm not
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: really a, totals person except for mlb load yes that's
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: my name uh mr pinsey what's up uh florida i
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: don't know am i playing florida that's the next game
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: i'm talking about number four old miss at number 21
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: florida on abc at 3 30 p.m eastern florida's ranked
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: 21 they just entered the rankings old miss has moved
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: up to number four yet florida is favored and all
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: the talking heads and the Public people are all talking
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: about this. I've heard people saying that it's free money
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: on Ole Miss here. Like, how could Ole Miss, the
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: way better ranked team, how could they be getting points
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: here and getting this many points? But that's when you
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: know the odds makers know more than you, man. I'm sorry.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: The odds makers are the people that have the money
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: at stake here. Yes, their aim is not to predict
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: the game outcome. Their aim is to split the action.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: But when they're telling you, The number 21 ranked team
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: is a three, three and a half point favorite. Yes,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: they're at home, so they do get home advantage here
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: of probably about four points in the swamp. It's a
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: strong home field advantage for Florida. Even so, the oddsmakers
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: are telling you these teams are basically evenly matched in
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: power rankings, power ratings, the real power ratings. The oddsmakers
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: are the people that have the real money on this.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: They have tons and tons of money riding on this.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: So you should believe them, and you should not believe
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: the rankings makers who have no money on this. They
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: just bullshit, and they just go, they like to hear
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: themselves talk, and they just rank these teams based on
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: what they saw last. And this year, it seems like
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: they're really overreacting to what they saw last. The answer
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: to Mr. Pinsey's question is yes, this is on my card.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: This is the first game that I identified as like, yeah,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a play. Now, I would
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: say wait on this, because right now it's Florida minus
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: three and a half. I wanted to maybe give it
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: out as a money line play, but I was hoping
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: it was like minus 150 or something in that range.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: It is not. It's like minus 170. So we can't
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: really find a great money line price on this, even
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: though I would still agree with the Florida money line.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: But I think we should just lay the points. I
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: think it's a high enough total in this game in
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: the high 50s that if Florida's going to win this game,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: they're probably going to cover. And I don't want to
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: eat my words on that, but I think we should
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: wait because the public's going to come in on Ole Miss.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: in this game here. Where are they at? Um, 79%
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 83% of the cash on Ole Miss right now,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: but that's not a huge percentage disparity here. Public is
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: on Ole Miss and I can tell you the professionals
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: are likely to be on Florida here. And yes, there
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: were threes out there. I heard that it opened one
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: and a half, but I don't see that at all.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: It looks like it opened at two and a half.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: Now the hope is because we can see some of
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: these numbers really teetering on the three. Um, like, uh,
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: FD has the three and a half at a very
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: low amount of juice here. I would wait. You know
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Just wait and try to get the three.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: And I guess if you have to, I guess still
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: lay the three and a half and maybe put less
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: money on it than you would otherwise. But I count
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: all my plays as worth the same amount on this show,
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: so that's how I do it. But yeah, that's how
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: I bet anyway. That's just how I've always done it.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: I don't weigh my plays down. uh more than others
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: even though i do feel pretty strongly about certain plays
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: over others and i feel strongly about this side but
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: i don't love the number obviously i would much rather
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: have three you want to get on that key number
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: three and not have to lay the hook and that
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: is what i'm going to try to do i will
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: update it in the description if i can find a
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: three but this is why you gotta watch the market
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: wait around hope that you can find it because in
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: this case you know the public's going to be all
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: over all miss and hopefully drive that down to three
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: at some places and that's where it's going to pay
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: off to Have all the books available, man. Ole Miss,
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: they look really good. they beat Louisville in that close
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: game in the first week and last week they had
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: their that was their statement game last week there's no
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: doubt about it they beat LSU Ole Miss wanted that
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: game big time because Lane Kiffin abandoned them before the
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: playoffs last year, and they wound up having to play
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs without Lane Kiffin. Oh, and then Lane
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Kiffin goes to LSU, and then what happens? LSU just
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: comes to Ole Miss. That's how the scheduling works out.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: You know Ole Miss wanted that game. That was like
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: their biggest game of the season, and then when they
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: won that game, the players were, there were pictures of this.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: They were like, taunting Lane Kiffin and pointing at him
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: or whatever. You know they went out and they celebrated
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: after that win. That was a monster win for Ole Miss.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: And now this is also going to be their first
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: true road game, and they have to go into the
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: swamp coming off that huge game where they might not
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: be over that win yet, man. They might still be
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: celebrating it right now. This is a terrible spot for
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: Ole Miss. I wish it was even worse. I wish
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: it was a sandwich spot, although it's really not because
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: they only play Vandy next week. Well, they actually have
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: a bye after this, but maybe they're looking forward to
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: the bye. But this is a horrible, horrible spot. It's
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: the biggest letdown spot of the week. And Florida, yes,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: they're ranked now, but the public's still going to be
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: on Ole Miss because they look so good. Florida does
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: not have as good of a resume so far, but
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: they've done whatever they needed to do so far. I mean,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: they obliterated FAU in a game where I thought FAU
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: might cover the number there. Nope, that didn't happen. Then
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: they killed Campbell, whatever, FCS team. Florida beat Auburn. That
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: was Florida's first road game last week. Auburn, I thought
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: Auburn was going to do better in this game. Florida
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: really kind of won this game more easily than what
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: the final score makes it look florida was winning that
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: game by double digits and uh auburn with nimrod one
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: of the most ridiculous uh wide receiver one of the
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: most ridiculous names one of their wide receivers i think
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: he's a wide receiver i don't even know who he
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: is um he he caught the last touchdown pass whoever
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: the hell he is um i think he's a receiver
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: but i have no idea anyway Florida was winning that
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: game by double digits late. They won that game by
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: more than what it looked like on the scoreboard. Florida
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: won the yardage battle by more than 100 yards in
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: this game. They put up almost 500 yards of offense, which,
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: you know, they did score a lot in the game,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: but they also dominated possession. They almost doubled possession. Auburn's
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: possession but they also had almost three times as many
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: penalties the penalties kind of fucked Florida in this game
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: um Florida beat Auburn more easily than it looks like
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: on the scoreboard so I think Florida is actually a
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: little bit under the radar right now they seem to
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: be on the upswing they got a new coach this
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: year I know it's his first year there with some
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: role he looks like he's doing a good job there
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: so far man um So I think it's definitely the
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: right side. It's just a matter of what the number
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: is here. I think we should still do it because
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: I don't want to give up fading Ole Miss in
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: a spot like this. You know what I mean? The
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: spot's just crazy. And, yeah, Ole Miss, they were able
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: to do that last week for their coach. So Ole
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Miss's current coach was the interim coach that they had
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: during the playoffs last year, Golding I think is his name.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: They still have him after he did a really good
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: job in the playoffs last year. It made sense. They
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: were just going to keep him on as their head coach.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: That's what they did. So I think he also wanted
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: that game. But Ole Miss really, like the players wanted it, man.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: The players that were abandoned by Lane Kiffin. You don't
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: get a bigger letdown spot than this. And it's one
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: of the, I don't know if we call it the
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: odds maker. What do we call it? We call it
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: the rankings maker error type of play. Is that what
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: we call it? I don't know. It's when you have
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: the rankings are way different than what the odds makers
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: are telling you. You know what I mean? Like the
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: rankings makers are telling you Ole Miss is the significantly
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: better team. The odds makers are telling you, nope, these
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: teams are basically even and Florida is supposed to win
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: this game along with the home field advantage here. So yeah,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: it's whatever you want to call it. It's one of
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: those games where the rankings makers are telling you something
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: completely different than what the odds makers are telling you.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: And again, listen to the odds makers because they're the
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: ones that actually have the money on this, riding on this.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Florida is a play for me, but I
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: want to try to get the three Yes. Hockey, I mean,
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: the Bruins are not good. So my team is ass.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: So that doesn't excite me. But I mean, I tend
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: to do well giving up bets on it. So my
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: bets tend to be pretty good in hockey. So yeah,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: it's one of my better betting sports, I suppose. So yeah,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: I suppose I am. I got to do a hockey preview. Dude,
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know any of the personnel in hockey. So
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: my hockey preview is going to be really bad because
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: you know me, I do situational handicapping. I do Scheduling dynamics.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: All right, we have number 15, Utah at Iowa State
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: on Fox. I think Iowa State is not good, man.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: I know they're 2-1 so far, but they beat Southeast
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Missouri State in Bowling Green. And I know Bowling Green
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: was a loser I gave out on the show last week.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: I think it was the only loser. I think we
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: had one win, one loss, and a bunch of pushes.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: That was bad. Bowling Green's bad, dude. I don't know
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: what else to say. Eddie George is going to get
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: fired over there. That was a horrible spot for Iowa State.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: I stick by that handicap. I'm sorry, but you're going
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: to win long-term if you fade teams in a spot
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: like that. Iowa State was coming off that monster effort
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: against Iowa, but that's all we have to gauge Iowa
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: State by. We know they're a new team here this
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: year because Matt Campbell left He went to Penn State.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: He's their coach over at Penn State now. He took
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: a bunch of his guys with him, including their quarterback, Beck.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: So Iowa State's in a rebuild this year. I don't
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: think they're a very good team. People, I think, might
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: overrate them because they looked good against Iowa, but they
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: always step up for that game. It's the Cy Hawk
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: Trophy game. It's a huge rivalry game. Tends to yield
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: some misleading results. Utah, I think, is a legit team, man.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Utah's been absolutely destroying their competition so far, and their
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: defense has been awesome so far. They've allowed 24 total
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: points so far in three games. Granted, yeah, they played
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: Idaho and Utah State there, but Utah State is at
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: least FBS competition. They're not that bad, and that's a rivalry. Utah,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: Utah State, Utah State, the little brother couldn't even score
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: a point against Utah. And then, yeah, Utah just destroyed
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: an SEC team in Arkansas. Utah's done nothing wrong so far.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: And I think the feeling was that Utah would take
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: a step back this year because they lost their coach.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Whittingham long-term coach to Michigan. But the thing was Utah's
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: current coach was always the coach in waiting. And he's
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: been in this program for almost two decades. So he
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: knows this system. He's just continuing the Whittingham system. You
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? So they didn't have, they did
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: not even have to change anything. So Utah's off and running.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: They're a good team. I don't really love that Utah
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: is having their first true road game here, though. I
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: don't really love that as a spot. The fact that
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: it's their first true road game. But other than that,
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: I don't see much of a situational angle to look
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: at here. And I'm pretty sure the money is backing
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: Utah in this one. Even though the line actually dropped
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: from 10.5 down to 7.5, 8.5 here. I'm not exactly
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: sure why that happened. 70% of tickets were on Iowa State,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: 54% of the cash on Utah. Does Utah have an
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: injury or something? I'm not sure, man. To their quarterback,
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: like Dampier?
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: Let me see. I'm going to look at that Utah
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: State game. You can see Dampier didn't play the whole game.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: They brought in Bird Ficklin. Great name there with Utah
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: State's quarterback Grady Brosterhaus. Yeah, these names are ridiculous, man. Brosterhaus?
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Brosterhaus sounds like a frat house. But anyway,
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, this doesn't mean that Dampier got injured, right?
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Like they might have just taken him out late in
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: the game because the game was a blowout, so they
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: might have just gotten their backup some playing time here.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: So I don't think Utah has any injuries here. I
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: think I'm going to lean laying the points with Utah here.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: I don't love it with the total being this low
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: in the high 40s here, but Utah's a very good defense.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Iowa State might really struggle on offense in this one, man,
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: against a punishing physical defense of Utah here. So, yeah,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: but I still don't love that it's their first true
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: road game, but I think if you forced me to,
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: I would agree with the money and lay the points
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: with Utah in that one. The money is coming in
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: on the under, though, in that one, too. However, I
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: think under... Even though under usually does not favor the favorite,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: it does favor Utah's style of play, though. So, like,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: if this game goes under, it could wind up being like,
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: you know, Utah wins this game 28-3 or something like that,
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? And they cover, but it
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: still goes way under or something like that. Speaking of
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: unders in defensive games, number 17 Iowa at number 18
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Michigan on CBS. This is an unbelievably low total in
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: this game. And we know Iowa, they're known for their defense,
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: although their offense has been a little bit better recently.
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: I thought that Kirk Ferentz, for some reason, wasn't there anymore,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: but I guess he still is. And I thought that
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: one of his sons took over or something, but what
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: really happened was his son was the OC, and he
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: fired his own son because the offense was so bad.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: And since then, the offense has been a little bit better.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: But this is a really, really low total in this one.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams have been playing a very defensive
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: style of game. 38.5 is the total. That's low even
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: for an NFL total. And we're talking about a college
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: football game here with a total of 38.5. I still
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: think this game might go under, and I think that
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: might be the better way to play this game rather
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: than trying to figure out the side. 62% of tickets,
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: 66% of the cash on the under. You know, as
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: I talk about, when the odds are going to put
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: up a total that's either really high or really low,
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: they're telling you something. like they're telling you that really
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: high total probably that game's gonna wind up going over
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: there's a reason why it's that high i talk about
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: it in baseball as well there's a reason why this
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: total is this low like they're probably saying that they
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: think this game is really going to be low scoring
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: and That low scoring. And the style of play from
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: these two teams does seem to indicate that. Like I
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: talked about last week, Michigan, I know they beat us
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: last week. That was kind of bullshit, man. Well, it
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: was a push for me on the show with the
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: plus 35. But UTEP, that game was tied in the
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: final minutes of the second quarter, man. I don't know
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: how Michigan wound up outscoring UTEP, whatever the hell it was.
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: 32 to nothing in the second half or whatever the
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: hell it was. Absolutely ridiculous. I don't know what to
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: say about that. Michigan, their offense has not been impressive otherwise.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: The one team they played that does have a good defense, Oklahoma,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: they won that game 17-10, which was a win on
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: the show for us. Michigan only scored 13 against Western Michigan,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: and that was only because they got handed the game
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: by that bad call at the end. They should have
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: actually scored seven in the game, so that's also ridiculous.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: But yeah, you got two offenses that are not exactly
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: doing a lot this year, let's say. You got two
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: teams that are, I think the defenses have the edge
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: over the offenses in this game. Let's just put it
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: that way. Now, Michigan's coming off an easy game. I
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: think Iowa's coming off an easy game as well. They
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: both just had blowout wins over lesser opponents, whatever. Maybe
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: Michigan's was a little bit more impressive, though, because Michigan's
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: was in a bad spot, and that was why I
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: faded them last week. But in that bad spot, Michigan
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: still ran away with that game. Now, Iowa looks like
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: they're a very public underdog here. Now, usually I say
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: when it's a really low total like this, you do
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: want to take the points, usually, because the points are
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: worth more. But in this game... I don't know, because
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: I also say that the public underdog is a red flag,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: and that's what Iowa is here. 88% of tickets, 87%
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Iowa. I lean towards fading public underdogs, man.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Public underdog, again, it's a big-time red flag. The public
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: wants the team. It's not even supposed to win the game.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? I consider that to be
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: a red flag, and I think what they're doing is
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: they're saying, well, Iowa's ranked higher than Michigan, so they
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: must be the better team, and they're getting all these points,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: yet the oddsmakers are telling you... No, actually. Michigan is
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: the better team here by at least a point, probably.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: And then they're getting home field advantage here as well, obviously,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: in this game. College football, you know, the home field
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: advantage is pretty big. But yeah, so I think it's
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: kind of one of those odds maker versus rankings maker
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: type of things where the odds makers are telling you
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: that Michigan is actually the right side in this game
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: and the public is being misled in the other direction.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: So if you force me to give a lean on
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: the side in this game, I would say lay it
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: with Michigan in that game. All right, but I think
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: the under might be the better approach in that game. Although, again,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not much of a totals person. But TCU at
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: UCF on Fox Sports 1. This is an ugly game, man.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: I don't think either of these teams is good in
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: the Big 12 here. TCU, I really don't like their defense.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: Both teams are 2-1 so far, but that can be
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: a little bit misleading early in the season because UCF's
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: two wins were against Cupcakes. They did play pretty well, though,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: on the road against Pitt. They played well defensively in
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: that game, at the very least. This is going to
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: be UCF's home opener and conference opener here. So I
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: don't really think they're going to overlook it, even though
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: they have Houston on deck. I don't really think they're
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: going to overlook their home conference opener. TCU is coming
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: up with an easy win over Arkansas State. They lost
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: their only FBS game in Dublin against North Carolina. Of course,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: TCU got upset in that game, and then since then,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: they've just beaten inferior teams, although beating Arkansas State by
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: that much is somewhat impressive because I don't think Arkansas
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: State's that bad, but this will be TCU's first true
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: road game. They do have BYU on deck. I don't
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: know that they're going to overlook their first conference game,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: but it is still kind of a weird spot for
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: A team from Fort Worth, Texas or whatever would have
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: to go to Orlando to play UCF. A little bit odd.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: First true road game for them. TCU looks public, but
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: some of the money coming in on them as well.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: 68% of tickets, 75% of the cash on them. They're
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: about a three, three and a half point favorite. It
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: is a low total though, and that total has gone down.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: It's off of that key number of 51 and a half,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: and it's all the way down to 48. So some
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: real money coming in on the under in this one.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: I think that might be because Central Florida tends to
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: slow games down quite a bit, and I think their
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: style is that they run the football a lot. At
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: least that's been the case the last couple of years.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: And I don't like TCU's defense. I think UCF is
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: the better defense, and they're at home getting points here.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: So that is probably what I would lean towards UCF
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: in that game. I would say, plus the points, but
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: I don't have a strong opinion on that. Boise at
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan. This is a weird game. On ESPN2 at 3.30 p.m. Eastern, Boise.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: Kind of a weird travel spot to have to go
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: to Western Michigan, man. It's not going to be their
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: first true road game because they did play at Oregon,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: but it will be their first time leaving the... Actually,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: Boise's not in Pacific time, right? Boise's in Mountain time,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: I think. But it'll be their first time going this
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: far east, at least, going to Western Michigan. And we
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: know Western Michigan has had the ability to step up
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: in games like they did against Michigan, but that was
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: a bigger game for them because it was... in-state big brother,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: little brother situation. Still, Western Michigan may get up for
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: a game against Boise. However, I don't really want to
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: fade Boise here. Even though Boise, yeah, they got Utah
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: State next, whatever. Look at what Boise's coming off of.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: They were a 28.5 point favorite against FCS South Dakota.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: Boise at home. And Boise only won the game by 14.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: And they were only winning the game by 7 until
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: they got an insurance touchdown with a minute 33 left
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: in the game. So Boise... They got a scare in
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: this game, man. You know what I always say, when
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: a big favorite gets a scare like that against an
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: inferior opponent, I think it was because they overlooked that
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: team a bit, and I think they played better in
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: their next game. If you look at this game, Boise
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: completely dominated this game. They won the yardage battle by
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: almost double, 533 to 279 yards. I don't know how
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: Boise was that close to losing this game. They dominated
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: first downs. The turnover battle was even. They almost doubled
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: the time of possessions. This was a misleading result. Boise
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: totally dominated that game statistically. So I actually think coming
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: off a game like that, Boise might actually be the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: right way to look in this game. Western Michigan, they
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: went on the road down to Texas, down to Houston,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: and beat Rice in their last game. Kind of a
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: weird spot having to face a team that I think
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: runs the triple option still. in Rice. Now Western Michigan
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: back at home. I think I'm going to lean Boise
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: in this one, actually, even though I don't like laying
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: points on the road, really, in kind of weird road
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: spots like this, and I don't necessarily want to fade
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan in a game that is going to be
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: big for them. They're probably going to get up getting
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: to play a big-name team like Boise, but Boise has
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: the better team. If you're going to get the better
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: team like Boise in a focus spot like this, I
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: think that might be the way to lean here. And
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: the money actually seems like it agrees with that, believe
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: it or not. Is on Western Michigan? I mean, maybe
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: they're just remembering, oh, my God, it's Western Michigan. If
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Western Michigan can, you know, beat Michigan and get screwed
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: out of the game, and that was on the road,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: obviously they're going to be able to cover against Boise
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: at home, right? Like maybe that's what the public is thinking.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe they're still thinking about that big game three weeks ago,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: and I think that would be the wrong way to
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: think about this. Everything's an individual game. 82% of the
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: tickets are on Western Michigan, 50-50 on the cash line.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: It is a low total, though, in the high 40s here.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: So I don't necessarily love laying points when that's the case,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: but I think that is what I would lean towards
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: in this one. Boise, laying about 7.5. It looks like
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: you might be able to find a 7 with a
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: little bit of juice there. So if you're going to
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: lay Boise, you might be able to find a number
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: where you get to lay 7 with some juice. The
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: Lion book, it looks like, has it right now with
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: the M, so I don't know. Do what you want
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: with all that info, but I don't want to play
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: that game. UConn at Miami, Ohio I'm only going to
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: talk about because there is a situational angle here potentially
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: with Miami, Ohio coming off a huge game at Cincinnati.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: Big brother, little brother situation here. Miami, Ohio at Cincinnati.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: And Cincinnati was a 14.5 point favorite. And what happened
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: in this game? Miami, Ohio was beating Cincinnati 28-7 in
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: this game at halftime. Miami, Ohio had Cincinnati completely on
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: the ropes, the big brother in this game. By the way, statistically,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: the game was fairly close as well. So Miami, Ohio
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: actually kind of played pretty well in this game. Not
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: really high on Cincinnati this year, man. But what happened
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: in this game? Oh, yeah, Miami, Ohio won a blow
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: in the game. They still had a 10-point lead in
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. They were still winning in the final
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: two minutes of the game, and then Cincinnati had a long,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: rushing touchdown to win the game and steal it away
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: from Miami, Ohio. I think after a game like that, Miami,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: Ohio's not going to be able to get back up
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: off the mat after that. This game almost made the
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: cut for me, man. I like UConn in this one.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: I think the only thing that's kind of worrying me
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: is that it's kind of a weird travel spot for UConn.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: It's second straight road game. coming off that game against
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: Southern Miss. I'm looking for one more game to put
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: in my pick seven, along with the six plays that
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: I'm giving out, including tonight's loser. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: UConn might wind up being the last play that I
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: put on there. I don't know, but I would lean
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: UConn here in this one. Miami, Ohio, I would like
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: this better if Miami, Ohio had a big game on deck. Now,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: they do have their conference opener next, at least, but
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: it's against Bowling Green. And Bowling Green is not good.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if they're really going to look
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: ahead that much to it, but possibly they will because
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: that's their MAAC opener. It's their conference opener. So you
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: could make the argument it is a little bit of
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: a sandwich spot here. I'm leaving it alone, but I
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: would lean UConn in this one. The money seems like
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: it doesn't agree. It looks like we have 67% of
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: the tickets on UConn. I hate how it shifts like
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: this sometimes when I haven't really done anything, but maybe
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: I can Fix that here. Yeah, there we go. Yeah,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: so UConn's got 67% of the tickets, it looks like.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: It seems like the public is still thinking that UConn
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: is that same team from last year, and they had Fagnano,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: but he was like their whole offense, and he's in
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: the NFL now, so he's not there. 67% of tickets
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: are on UConn, 64% of the cash on Miami, Ohio,
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: but the line did drop from 4.5 down to 3.5,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: so I'm going to lean towards taking the points with UConn, man.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: The 3.5 Or even three. I'd rather have three and
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: a half, obviously, though. But, yeah, those would be my
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: thoughts on that game. I would lean towards taking the
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: points with UConn there. Okay. At some point, I'm going to,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: you know, I try to, at the halfway point, take
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a break here. CBS Sports, we
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: have New Mexico. New Mexico State, the Battle of New Mexico.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: I'm going to give it a play in this one.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: I do have one slight concern with this, but it
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: might be alleviated here. We're going to take New Mexico
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: State plus 11.5 in this game. I think it's a
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: bad spot for New Mexico. As I already pointed out,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: New Mexico, yeah, they look good in their first two games, crushing, well,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: Central Michigan at least as an FBS team, and then Mercyhurst, whatever.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: Mercy rule, more like, in that game, 70-7. Now, I
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: was high on New Mexico coming into the season. If
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: you watch my season preview, I think they're going to
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: be very competitive in the Mountain West. But look at
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: what they're coming off of, man. They just went into Oklahoma,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: into Norman, as I already pointed out, and they almost
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: won the game. They were down 7-6 at halftime in
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: this game, and then they were still within 8 points.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: They could have potentially tied the game. Late in this game,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: they were hanging around. They were only down eight points
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: for the remainder of the game, pretty much. They out-possessed
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma in the game, by the way. But they did
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: capitalize on three Oklahoma turnovers. They still got out-gained by Oklahoma. Now,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma is a very good defense, and obviously New Mexico
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: State is not anywhere near as good as that. But
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: New Mexico did not put up a whole lot of
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: offense there, but really what I'm looking at is New
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: Mexico was a huge underdog in this game. At 21
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: and a half, it was a monster game for them,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest games on their schedule. And they
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: actually knocked Oklahoma out of the rankings, by the way,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: so I forgot to mention that just briefly. Another reason
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: I like Oklahoma against Georgia is Oklahoma fell completely out
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: of the rankings, but... Their defense is good enough that
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: they're probably legitimately a top 25 team. And they fell
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: out of the rankings last week, even though they won
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: the game. And I talked about that with Michigan. after
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: they won against Western Michigan in week one and they
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: fell completely out of the rankings. I think teams like
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: that tend to do well in the next game. They
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: tend to bounce back. So just brief aside there. But
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: New Mexico is coming off that huge game, man. That
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: was one of the biggest games on their schedule. Now, yes,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: this is a rivalry between them and New Mexico State,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: but this game is in Las Cruces, so it's in
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: New Mexico State. So it is a second straight road
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: game for New Mexico, even though they're going to be
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: back in their home state here. They're not going to
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: be in Albuquerque. And New Mexico State considers themselves to
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: be the little brother, I'm pretty sure, in this one.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So I think the rivalry
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: means more to New Mexico State here. New Mexico State,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: the one concern with them is they did play in
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: Hawaii in their last game, so they're having to travel.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: But here's the good news for New Mexico State. They
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: had a bye. Just like I said when I talked
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: about Hawaii, both teams had a bye last week. New
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: Mexico State and Hawaii did. New Mexico did not. So
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: while New Mexico was having that massive effort game against Oklahoma,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: New Mexico State had a bye. And they went into
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: that buy on a bad note. They lost in Hawaii,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: and you know what I said. When a team has
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: a buy and they win on a bad note, they
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: can tend to correct some things. They can tend to
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: play better in the next game. And by the way,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: let's not forget, New Mexico State did pretty well against
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: Mercyhurst as well. They obliterated that team, even though New
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: Mexico beat them by more. New Mexico State still crushed them.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: And New Mexico State did fairly well at Florida State
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: in the first game they played in week zero, which
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: maybe Florida State just totally overlooked them. But still, New
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Mexico State, the fact that they could do that against
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: Florida State, you know, maybe they can hang here, even
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: though I don't really love to handicap that way, but
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: it It was three weeks ago, and the public bettors
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: are not going to be looking at that. You know
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: what I mean? So, yeah, I like this. And as
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: far as New Mexico, their next game is only against UTEP,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: but it will be their conference opener, though. So, again,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: it was a similar thing to what I said about Miami, Ohio.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: I just think this game is a little bit better
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: because New Mexico State's– coming off a bye there. So
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: I think I like this a little bit better than
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: I like UConn. But like I said with that game, Miami,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: Ohio might still look ahead to their first conference game.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe New Mexico will still look ahead to their first
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: conference game, which is against UTEP. But UTEP is a
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: pretty bad team. Although they don't look as bad as
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: Bowling Green so far. But yeah, this is also the
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: second straight road game for New Mexico. So yeah, we're
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: taking New Mexico State here. The money seems like it
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: definitely agrees with this. 79% of tickets, 58% of the
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: cash on New Mexico. Now this game looks like it
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: opened close to 14, but that was gone like really
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: early on. We're still getting above 10, above 10 and
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: a half even, which I like. And we have a
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: low total on this one with money coming in towards
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: the under, by the way, that's driven this total down
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: to about 48, 48 and a half. You know me,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: I like to take points. We're getting a home underdog
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: in this case, getting points, double digit points in a
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: low total game. And what I think is a good
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: spot for them in a bad spot for the favorite
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: is Let's do it. And it's also a spot where
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: another thing that you want to look for is the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: games where the favorite or the underdog completely flip from
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: being a favorite to an underdog or vice versa. Like
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: for example, in this case, New Mexico was a massive
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: underdog last week and they played really well, but now
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: they're a mat, like a big favorite this week. And
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: teams going from a huge underdog, huge performance like that
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: to them being a huge favorite the next week tend
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: to not do that well at covering the spread. So
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: I like that. And vice versa. I like the opposite too.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: When you had a big favorite, not look too good.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: And now they're like an, a big underdog in the
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: next week. I do like to look towards that too. And,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: That will be the case with one game that I'm
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: going to talk about, but I'm not going to put
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: it on my card for one or two reasons. But
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about that as well. Zach, what's up? What
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: about the Royals? You're going to root for the Red
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: Sox now, root for my team? All right, hell yeah. Yeah.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: Lip rips. What's up, man? Well, I will say, first
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: of all, I recommend not parlaying ever because it's not
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: a plus EV bet. So long-term, you're not going to
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: be able to win with parlays. That's just the math
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: of it. If you're going to do a parlay, I
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: recommend parlaying two legs only because the more legs you add,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: the more difficult it is to win because any bet
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: can just knock the thing completely out. But I would
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: say if you're going to... play a parlay here, man,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: I gotta think about this, because I'm looking at the
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: games that I have, like, my best bets here, they don't,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: they're not too conducive to a parlay, I mean, I
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: guess you could parlay any spread bets together, I guess,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: but I had Florida, Florida is a team that I like,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: I gave them out, you know, as a spread play,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: but You could parlay Florida as a Moneyline favorite. I'm
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: going to give out another favorite later in the show.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: You could parlay those two games together, which is going
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: to be Utah State. I don't really want to spoil
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: what I'm going to talk about later in the show,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: but I will give my analysis on that when I
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: get to it. Maybe those two, but, you know, I mean, just,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: you know, for the record, the best bets that I've
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: given out on the show so far, South Alabama plus
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: the points, Florida minus the points, and New Mexico State
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: plus the points. But I do have two more that
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: I'm giving out. One is going to be that Utah
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: State play, and the other is another big underdog. So
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: some combination of those maybe. Yes, sir. Uh, I don't
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: know if I want to spoil all the plays I'm
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: going to give out, but these shows are really long, man.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: It had to be like two hours. And then you
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: don't really know when I'm going to give out the, uh,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: the play. I used to give out all the best
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: bets at the very end, but maybe it keeps people
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: more on their toes when I just do it, you know,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: at an unexpected point in the middle of the show,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: when we have the next best bet come out, you
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Um, But, you know, what I
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: recommend on this show is to just play all the
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: stuff that I'm giving out as, like, straight bets. And,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: you know, I do have some strong opinions that I
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: give out as leans, too. Like, I did, like, Yukon
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: plus the points, although I didn't put it on my card. But, yeah. Okay,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: let me see. What do we want to do here?
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: The next game I'm going to talk about is my
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: next play, though. Should I just do that first and
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: then take a break?
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I mean, a lot of times
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: they take the break before I get to the evening. plays. Yeah, whatever.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about this next game, which is where are
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: we at here? 4 o'clock p.m., number 25, Houston at
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern. This is another best bet here. Two in
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: a row I think I'm giving out. This is the
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: last one. This is that big underdog I mentioned. Georgia
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: Southern plus 17.5 is going to be a play here.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: I think we want to fade Houston here. Houston, as
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: I mentioned earlier in the show, is coming off a
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: monster game against Texas Tech. That was a primetime game
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: as well. So while I think Houston does have extra
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: time off here because this game was on a Friday,
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: I don't care. I think it's going to be difficult
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: for them to get back up off the mat after this, man.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: They played a real tough game against Texas Tech. It's
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: a big... conference game big in-state rivalry type of situation
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: here and they almost were able to tie the game
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: at the very end they missed a two-point conversion late
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: in the game that basically would have sent that game
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: into overtime i don't know how they get back up
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: off the mat after that man that was a ridiculous
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: effort from them they almost pulled off the upset there
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: and they did actually outgain texas texas they were a
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: little bit better than even they actually looked on the
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: scoreboard i suppose but after a game like that i
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: think you gotta fade houston um They're also a team
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: that they're going from a big underdog to now being
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: a big favorite. It's a second straight road game. It's
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: kind of a weird spot for them to have to
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: leave the state of Texas for the first time, by
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: the way. So even though Lubbock is not really that
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: close to Houston, and that's where they were last week,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: but having to go out on the road to Georgia,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: first time leaving the state of Texas this year, and
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: they do have a conference game up next against UCF.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: I know it's not one of the better conference teams
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: in UCF, but it is still another conference game. So
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: I think they might overlook this opponent, man, Georgia Southern
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: Houston coming up that huge performance. I think it's a
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: flat spot. I think you could argue it might be
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: a sandwich spot. Second straight road game makes it more difficult.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: And Georgia Southern people aren't really going to pay much
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: attention to them, but they didn't play that badly at Clemson, man.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: And Clemson, you know, is about to beat me tonight,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: I think, which I don't want to talk about, but,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: The fact that Georgia Southern held Clemson to 22 points.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: I know Clemson hasn't looked good this year, but that's
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: not a bad performance from Georgia Southern. And then they
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: had a second straight road game at Jacksonville State last week.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: But if you look at what happened in this game,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern, I mean, Georgia Southern played better than it
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: looked on the scoreboard. Let's just put it that way.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: They outgained Jacksonville State in this game. They out-possessed them
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: by a ton, by 13 minutes, and they out-first downed them. So,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern was actually a little bit better in this
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: game than it looked, and I know they lost the game.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: They came close to winning as an underdog, but they
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: were only a three-and-a-half point underdog, so it's not like
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: they were a huge underdog or anything like that, and
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: you know that they're going to get up for a
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: game like this against Houston. Like, this is probably, they
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: consider this their biggest game of the season. You know
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: what I mean? This is kind of their Super Bowl
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: type of thing, if you will. The one ranked team
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: they're going to face all season, and they get to
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: host them at home. It'll be a big game for them, man.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: And you can see here that Georgia Southern lost that
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: game last week on a punt return touchdown and an interception.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: So it was a little bit of a misleading loss
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: for Georgia Southern in that one. And I believe, were
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: they at home? No, they were on the road, right? Yeah,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: they were on the road. I was going to say
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: they might be staying at home for this, but no.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: But either way, yes, we're going to fade Houston here.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern, again, did look worse than they actually were
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: last week. The money is really agreeing with me on this. Now,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: it did open 19, but it hasn't gone through any
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: key numbers. As long as you get 17.5 or greater
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: on this, that's all you can really ask for here.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: 17 is really the key number in this range here.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: 64% of tickets on Houston, 90% of the cash on
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern. So the money is agreeing. It's all coming
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: in on Georgia Southern here. Let's do it. We'll take
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: them as the underdog in that one, plus all those points.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: All right. SEC Network at 4.15 p.m. And then maybe
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: I'll take the break after I talk about this game. Maybe,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I got to figure out what's the
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: halfway point. Usually, maybe it's before like the, you know,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: the true evening games maybe I think is what I
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: did last week I don't know Vandy at Auburn though
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: this is an interesting game now everybody's shitting on Vandy
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: and saying they shouldn't have won last week and that's
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: obviously true they should not have won and Vandy has
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: not been that impressive this year man I mean it's
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: not Diego Pavia there anymore they didn't look that good
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: against Austin Peay in their first game uh in-state little
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: brother there didn't really look good against Delaware after that
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: either Last week they won their first power conference game
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: against NC State, but everybody saw what happened in that game.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: NC State was winning the entire game, and then what
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: did they do? NC State with a three-point lead at
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: the end of the game. They were backed up close
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: to their own end zone. Not much time left in
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: the game. I think, what was it, about 40 seconds left,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: or less than that, right? I don't know how much
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: time was left. It wasn't much. NC State, all they
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: really had to do was take a safety there, and
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: they would still be up one free kick it off,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: and then play prevent defense and just make sure the
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: Vandy doesn't get a field goal range, basically, although, of course,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: they could have late in the game. But what did
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: NC State do?
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: C.J.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: Bailey, their quarterback, even though he's an experienced quarterback, what
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: did he do? Well, the coaches will tell you that
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: in a spot like that, in a situation like that,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: you want to run right to the back of the
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: end zone. Don't step out of the back of the
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: end zone yet. Go in whichever direction the defense is
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: not at, And then once you're about to get hit,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: then go out of the back of the end zone.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: And if you're going to get hit, make sure you're
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: right at the back of the end zone. So if
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: you fumble the football, you're going to fumble it out
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: of the back of the end zone, and it's still
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: going to be a safety. You know what I mean?
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: And I don't know what he was doing. He got
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: nailed in the middle of the end zone, fumbled it over,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: and Vandy recovered it in the end zone for a
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: touchdown if they hadn't been winning at all during the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: entire game. But now... People are going to be saying, well,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: Vandy shouldn't have won that game. And yes, that's true,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: but you know that's what Vandy's going to be hearing
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: all week. Vandy should not have won this game. Vandy
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: should not have won. So I think Vandy's going to
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: come into this game maybe a little bit pissed off
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: and maybe show up here in this one. Although it
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: is their first true road game, they do play Georgia next.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: That worries me a little bit. I don't like the
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: first true road game situation. I don't like the potential
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: look ahead to Georgia. But this is Vandy's first SEC game,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: and Auburn's already played an SEC game. Although Auburn did
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: lose their first SEC game, but that was last week,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: and they put in a big effort against Florida. Auburn
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: kind of made that comeback in that game against Florida.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: It was their first loss, and sometimes a team that
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: takes their first loss sometimes will be hung over into
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: the next game. That was kind of a big game
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: for Auburn. Maybe Vandy, because they're down this year, maybe
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: it's not as big of a game for Auburn here,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: even though Vandy is undefeated still this year. So maybe
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: Auburn does show up still for this, but they do
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: play Tennessee next. So they do kind of have a
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: look ahead here, Auburn does, to rank Tennessee up next.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: So the situation, I think, does favor Vanderbilt in this game.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: There are some things I don't like about it, and
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: I don't like the market read either. 51% of tickets
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: on Vandy, 74% of the cash on Auburn. Auburn's about
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: a 10-point favorite here, 9.5 to 10. The money actually
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: looks like it has come in on Auburn. It has
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: driven that line up to that key number of 10.
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: At the Vegas book with the C, which is usually
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: sort of the sharper lean, that has Auburn at 10,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: where every other book is at 9.5. So that is
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: kind of telling you the professional money apparently is kind
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: of on Auburn in this game. I slightly disagree with it,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: but this game doesn't make the cut for me at all.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: It is what it is. Do with that information what
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: you want, I guess. But get the better number, whatever
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: you're going to do. If you're going to play Auburn,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: lay below 10. If you're going to try to play Vandy,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: find the 10. You know what I mean? That's what
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: I got on that one. Wisconsin at number 13 at
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: Penn State on Peacock. Penn State's looked good so far
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: in the Matt Campbell era, but they haven't really played
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: anybody good yet. Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, okay. Penn State, I
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: told you coming into the season, though, they had an
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: easy schedule. They get Wisconsin here at home. Penn State
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: is going to be a big favorite in this game
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: because Wisconsin's not very good. Maybe Wisconsin will get up
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: for this, though. Maybe Penn State's a little bit overrated, man.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: At number 13, should they really be there? I don't know.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, the power ratings guys do seem to have
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: Penn State somewhere in that vicinity, and maybe actually even
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than that. I don't know, because
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: they haven't proven anything yet, but neither has Wisconsin. Wisconsin,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: two easy wins, Western Illinois and then Eastern Michigan, although
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: they did blow out Eastern Michigan last week, and Eastern
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: Michigan is FBS competition and not that bad of a team.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: But this will be Wisconsin's first true road game, which
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: is somewhat difficult, having to go into Happy Valley here.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: Would I want to lay the points of Penn State here?
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: I don't really think I would want to, and I
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: think it looks too easy to do that. Looking at
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: the number here, it's nine and a half or 10 here.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: It does look way too easy, right, to lay those
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: points of Penn State, the ranked team that hasn't done
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: anything wrong yet this season. The number feels low. So
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: when that's the case, the oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: you something. They're telling you this game's going to be
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: a little bit closer, I think, than maybe you think
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: that it would be. If you're going to take Wisconsin,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: you've got to find a 10 on this, though. The
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: number's 9.5, heavily juiced at some place. It looks like
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: you can find a 10 at DK. right now. So
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: that's going to be my lean. I would lean to
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: Wisconsin in this one. It's also a low total in
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: the low 40s here, basically. So low to mid 40s,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: which is good for taking the underdog. It means the
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: points are worth a bit more here. Easier for the
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: underdog to cover. Penn State is public. 75% of tickets
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: on them. after their bad year last year, they've looked
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: good enough this year. The public is right back on
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: their side, man. The public, they have ADD basically, you know, they're, uh,
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: they just focus on what they saw most recently. Uh,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: you know, they're, they're high time preference, basically. What have
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: you done for me recently? I try to be low
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: time preference in a way here. I look at everything
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: as a whole, you know what I mean? Uh, that
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: sounded wrong. Um, I'm a womanizer. Everything is a hole, man.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: Or I'm pansexual or whatever. Yeah, I'm going to go
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: fuck that mattress after this show. No. 75% of tickets,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: 54% of the cash on Penn State. So the money
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: is agreeing with Wisconsin in that one. I will agree
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: as well with that one. Okay. Nebraska and Michigan State,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: Big Ten Network, 5 p.m. Eastern. Michigan State took their
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: first loss of the season last week. Kind of a
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: tough performance from them at Notre Dame, only losing 27-10.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. Coming off of that, I think that
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: makes Michigan State look maybe better than they are. Maybe
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: they're going to be a little bit hungover because it
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: was a tough physical opponent they faced. They played them
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: fairly tough. It was their first loss of the season.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: Maybe they'll be a little bit hungover here coming into
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: this one. Nebraska... Nebraska, I mean, they haven't beaten anybody
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: good so far. That's the thing about Nebraska. They've played
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: three easy opponents so far. Ohio has been the best
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: team they've played so far. But Nebraska's laying points on
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: the road here, and I think that kind of tells
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: you what you need to know here. People are going
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: to look at this and maybe think this is kind
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: of a competitive matchup, but Michigan State looks like they're
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: a public underdog because they looked good enough against Notre
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: Dame that people are thinking, oh, I'm getting points here
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: with this Michigan State team. Yeah, I would worry about
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: Michigan State, man. Red flag, public underdog, especially a public
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: home underdog. 84% of tickets on Michigan State, 81% of
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. If you think that these percentages
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: are accurate, at least. The total is low. It's in
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: the 40s, high 40s, and I don't necessarily love laying
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: points when the total is that low, but I do
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: like laying points against the public, and I think that's
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: what you're going to be doing if you're playing Nebraska here.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: The money looks like it's come in on them. They're
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: up from four and a half to five and a
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: half now, basically even six, despite the fact that the
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: public seems to be taking the points of Michigan State here.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: That money, it's reverse line moving on Nebraska here. So
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: I'm going to agree with that. The market read saying
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: so on Nebraska. I don't have too much of a
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: situational angle on that, but it seems like it does
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: go against Michigan State a little bit, the situation. So yeah,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: I would lean Nebraska in that one. we like Wisconsin
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: I mean it's not a play for me but yeah
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: I mean that's a lean to Wisconsin for me but
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: I don't feel very strongly about it as you just
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: heard I do not like Michigan State really whatsoever in
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: that game they look like a very dreaded public underdog
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: in that game so I would definitely stay away from
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: them that game is not going to make the cut
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: for me at all though what else we got here
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: ACC Network Delaware at Virginia. Virginia's another team that just
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: fell out of the rankings. This is at 6 p.m.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if I want to, like, actually,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: you know what? Hold on. Yeah, you know what? Maybe
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: I'll take a break now. Maybe the 6 p.m. is
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: sort of the evening cutoff for me. I'll leave you hanging,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: then I'll talk about Virginia. All right. Let me get
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: some water and whatever. Well, I have some here, but
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: let me get some more of it. I'll be right back.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: I got to stretch anyway. Yep, inside, I want to
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: kill myself. We are on an 0-7 run over the
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: last two days after tonight was just complete bullshit. So
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: that's how I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: that is Have not had a good season, man, with weekends.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: Slump.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man? I
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after...
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: The worst day that I could possibly have back with you,
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: as I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5, the
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my 18 years
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right, so
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: as I was saying, Virginia fell out of the rankings
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: last week because they lost. They got upset by West Virginia. Now,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: that was Virginia's, you know, Virginia has not really been
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: that impressive so far this year. They beat that NC
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: State team that Looks like they can't get out of
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: their own way. And then they crushed Norfolk State, whatever.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: Took a loss as a double-digit favorite, I think, last
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: week against West Virginia. First loss of the season. Sometimes
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: the first loss will hang you over into the next game.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: And Virginia does have kind of a big game on
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: deck against Florida State. So I don't really love that,
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: as that's a potential look ahead. Potential hangover after that loss. But...
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: I do like teams to bounce back when they lose
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: as a big favorite, and Virginia did that last week.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: And I do like to back teams, like I mentioned
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: with Oklahoma, that got knocked out. Although Oklahoma got knocked
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: out of the top 25 despite winning. But still, I
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: like teams to get bounced from the top 25 to
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: kind of bounce back after that. And that's what happened
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: with Virginia. After losing to West Virginia, they got bounced
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: from the rankings last Will they really focus on Delaware, though,
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: enough to cover this number? I don't know about that, man. Delaware, though,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: you know, I liked Coastal in that game last week.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: Coastal made some mistakes in that game. Delaware probably should
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: not have covered that game. So I think Delaware looked
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than they really were in that game.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: This is a tough call. This game is really a
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: tough call. Delaware, it's still going to be a game
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: they're going to get up for against Virginia, and the
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: money is coming in towards Delaware. 91% of tickets, 84%
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Virginia. So they're a very public side.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: Money seemingly back in Delaware. Number dropped from 20.5 to
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: about 19.5. Not a huge move there. But 20, I guess,
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: is slightly key. 21 is definitely more key. I don't know, man.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: I think I might slightly lean Virginia in that game,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: but the market read is definitely disagreeing with that. So, yeah,
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: that's a game I will not be touching. James Madison,
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: Old Dominion, I'll talk about just because it is a rivalry.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: Virginia rivalry here. Old Dominion, I think, considers themselves to
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: be the little brother in this matchup, but it is
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: also conference rivalry. These teams are in the same half
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: of the Sun Belt, too. old dominion lost to Virginia
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: tech a couple of weeks ago in a little brother,
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: big brother, Virginia situation. Then they lost again last week
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: against East Carolina. Old dominion was actually the favorite in
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: this game, but it was kind of a bad spot
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: for them, right? Cause they were coming off that game
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: against Virginia tech. They had jam you up next. They
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: were in a bit of a Virginia ham sandwich or
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell you want. It was a sandwich, whatever
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: a Virginia sandwich would be. Virginia baked ham sandwich or
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell. Um, Now, this game was close on
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: the scoreboard. It wasn't really a misleading score or anything
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: of Old Dominion losing to East Carolina last week. But
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: they might bounce back from that. I think this is
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: going to be a bigger game for them than it
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: will be for James Madison. And James Madison just went
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: out to the Pacific Coast and beat San Diego State.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: And San Diego State, they have this name recognition around them, whatever.
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: That was kind of a big win for James Madison.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: I didn't think they would respond that well to going
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: out to the Pacific Coast. East Coast teams doing that.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: I'm getting fucked up playing against those teams right now.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: I didn't give that out as a play, though, at least,
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. But JMU played better than I
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: thought they would. First true road game at San Diego State.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: Now they're traveling all the way back from the Pacific Coast. Yeah,
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know this is going to be their
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: first conference game. It is for both teams, though. I
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: think the travel and the spot, I think, does favor
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: Old Dominion a little bit in this one. And that
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: is where the money seems to be headed. 93% of
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on James Madison, but 78% of the cash.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: They did move up from 4.5 point favor to 6, 6.5 here.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: I highly doubt that it gets to 7, but the
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: money seems to be, at this point, agreeing with Old Dominion.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: It is a really low total. Uh, the money's coming
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: on the under, I think maybe because of the nor'easter
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: or whatever the storm situation here, maybe that's affecting this total,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: but it's dropped five points. Usually you don't see a
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: total move like that unless there's weather involved. Uh, but that,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: I think that helps the underdog. The fact that the
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: total is going to be lower, it helps the underdog covers. So,
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: Points more at a premium. I'd lean Old Dominion in
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: that one, plus the points. Central Michigan at number six, Miami,
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: on the CW at 6.30 p.m. Miami, they have extra
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: time off, and they didn't look that good against Wake
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: Forest in that last game, so Miami... I don't know
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: if they're exactly in a terrible spot, but there was
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: still an ACC win against Wake Forest, and they do
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: have Clemson up next. It looks like that's going to
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 2: look like a little bit of a bigger game now
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: that Clemson looks like they can actually fucking win a game.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: I'm pissed about it, but yeah, maybe Miami will look
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: ahead to Clemson here. Maybe Miami won't take Central Michigan
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: as seriously. Sometimes Miami, when they have the extra time
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: off like this, off of a conference win like that
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: and having three wins in a row to start the season,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: sometimes the extra rest doesn't help you. Like I said
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: with a bye, sometimes that will hurt your momentum, you
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? It'll disrupt your momentum. But I
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: don't know, because Miami didn't exactly play great in that
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: game against Wake. They didn't cover the game against Wake
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: and whatever, so... I don't know. Uh, this game's a
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: little bit hard to figure out central Michigan, uh, coming
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: in off of beating Wyoming. That was their best win
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: of the season so far. It is a weird spot
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: for them to have to travel down to Miami though.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: Definitely not an easy spot for central Michigan, Miami. You
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: know that there's not going to be any value laying
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: the points though. I think that's part of the reason
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: why some of these teams that I'm talking about where
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: I kind of think the favorites in the better spot,
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: you kind of know you're not going to get line
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: value on that team. Um, Miami's got 90% of tickets,
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: 84% of the cash on them, so the money is
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: kind of indicating towards Central Michigan here against a public
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: Miami team. The line in this game is ridiculous. It's
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: 41 and a half, 42. I mean, Miami's one of
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: the top teams in the country again. Yeah, so I
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, I guess I'll slightly agree with
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: the money in that one. It's slightly in Central Michigan,
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man. I mean, there are some
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: arguments that the spot isn't that bad for Miami. But
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: then again, how incentivized are they really going to beat
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: a pound of Central Michigan by more than 41.5? You
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? There's no incentive to really do so.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: All right, we get into the primetime games now. South
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: Carolina at number eight, Alabama. SEC matchup on ESPN, Alabama.
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: Didn't really look that great last week against Florida State
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: in a revenge scenario for Alabama, by the way, because
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: Florida State beat them last year in that first game,
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: which kind of hurt Alabama, although Alabama still got into
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: the playoffs last year. Big revenge win for Alabama, though, nonetheless,
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: and they do have a ranked Mississippi State team up next.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: Might they overlook South Carolina here? I don't know, but
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: the thing about that last game for Alabama was they
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: didn't cover. They didn't play well. They were winning by
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: seven late in the game, and they scored an extra
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: touchdown late in the game to push it back to 14.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: So Alabama, as an 18 and a half point favorite,
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: they kind of got a scare again against Florida State.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of the issue I have. So on
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: the one hand, it was kind of a big revenge
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: win for Alabama, but on the other hand, They didn't
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: play well as a big favorite, and sometimes that will
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: shock you back into focus. On the South Carolina side,
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: they took their first loss of the season, which sometimes
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: will hang a team over. This will be their first
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: true road game, which is not an easy thing to do.
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: But on the other hand, they were favored against Mississippi State,
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: and they lost. However, I mean, Mississippi State, I mean,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: they're hyped right now, so that's kind of become like,
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: that was a big game probably in South Carolina's mind. Although,
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: this will also be Um, Alabama's got 80% of tickets,
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: 67% of the cash on them. They're 12 and a
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: half point favorite. It looks way too easy to lay
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: the points with Alabama. That's kind of my concern here.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: The money is saying South Carolina, it looks way too
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: easy to lay that price. That looks kind of short
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: with Alabama at 12 and a half. But again, it's,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: it is possible that Alabama does bounce back from that, um,
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: lackluster effort against Florida State but you know I keep
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: going back and forth because then again it was kind
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: of a big revenge win for last year and Alabama
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: does play a ranked Mississippi State team next yeah I
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: mean I guess I'm gonna lean South Carolina plus the
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: points there I'll agree with the market but don't love
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: it at all Kansas State at Cincinnati 7 p.m ESPN
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: 2 Cincinnati They're 3-0, but I don't think they're a
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 2: good team. They've beaten Boston College, Western Carolina, and then Miami, Ohio,
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 2: and they did not look good in that game against Miami, Ohio. However,
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: you know what I say. Big favorite like Cincinnati was
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: against a motivated little brother like Miami, Ohio. Cincinnati, I think,
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: overlooked them. Miami, Ohio came in with a bunch of effort,
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: and when that big favorite doesn't play well, like Cincinnati,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: a lot of times they get a scare back into focus.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati probably is going to show up with
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: a bigger effort here, and they might have been looking
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: ahead to this, because this is a big... It's the
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: big Big 12 opener for them against Kansas State. Kansas
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: State has not played a conference game yet either, but
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 2: this will be their first true road game, and they
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: do play Houston next, so it will be after a bye, but...
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: Spot looks a little bit trickier for Kansas State. Cincinnati's
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: still kind of new to this conference, so not a
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: place that Kansas State is that familiar with traveling to.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: The money is strongly indicating on Cincinnati. 55% of tickets
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: on Kansas State, 92% of the cash on Cincinnati. Kansas
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: State's a 6-6.5 point favorite here. And the fact that
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: Kansas State is at least a little bit public, and
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: this line has not moved towards that key number, even
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: though they're not really heavily public here. The money has
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: kind of come in and driven that line towards Cincinnati.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: Based on that, the market read and the spot all
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: seem to kind of line up on that one. So
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: I will agree with Cincinnati in that game. Plus the points,
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: of course. Whenever I say something like that, it's always
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 2: against the spread. Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Yeah. Fox
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: Sports 1, 7pm. You know what I'm about to say.
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: West Virginia pulled off that nice upset against a ranked
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: Virginia team. Kind of a little brother, big brother situation.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: Rivalry situation between the two different Virginias. West Virginia was
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: a double digit underdog. They went in. They won the game.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: And now it wasn't really that misleading though because they
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: actually did outgain Virginia in this game. Which I should
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: have mentioned when I talked about Virginia. So that's kind
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: of a strike against Virginia if you do me and
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: Virginia in that game against Delaware, which, you know, I
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, I guess I, I think I
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 2: said I kind of did, but I don't know that
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: kind of, uh, the fact that Virginia actually got out
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: gained by quite a bit by West Virginia makes me
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: like that idea. Even like, it makes me like that
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: idea less, but anyway, I think West Virginia is going
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: to be in a letdown spot though, even though, yeah,
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: this wasn't that misleading of a result of the Virginia
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: did win the possession battle at least, but West Virginia
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: coming off a big game like this, uh, And it
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: was the Duke's Mayo Classic, man. So it was kind
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: of a big game. It was a neutral site game, whatever. Yeah,
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: I think West Virginia might have been a little bit
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: of a letdown spot after that, man. Oklahoma State coming in.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: It won't be their first true road game because they
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: did play at Tulsa, but it will be their first
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: out-of-state road game, though. So that's a little bit difficult
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: for Oklahoma State, too. First time leaving the state of Oklahoma.
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: But they're coming off a much easier game last week
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: where they beat Murray State. So West Virginia is in
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: the trickier spot here. So I like Oklahoma State in
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: this one. Not going to make the cut for me,
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: but it looks like West Virginia is a little bit public.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: 63% of tickets and cash on them. But it's a
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: one and a half spread. So the odds makers are
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: basically saying pick the winner here in this one. And
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: you know. the public is going to be, Oh, West Virginia,
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: they just beat Virginia. And I think they're going to
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: forget that Oklahoma state, maybe they forget Oklahoma state beat
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: Oregon a couple of weeks ago because they did. Right.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe they won't forget that. I don't know. But to me,
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: it's always, what did you see last? And I think
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: the public's going to think it looks easier to take
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: the three and Oh, uh, Virginia team, you know, and
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: the public, I don't think is that high on West Virginia.
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, the public, I don't think they're going to
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: take West Virginia is what I'm saying. Uh, The public,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: I think, is not going to be as high on
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma State because they didn't do anything as recently. So, yeah,
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: I'm going to lean towards Oklahoma State in that game.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: Let's keep going here. What else we got? ABC, the
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 2: big ranked matchup here, 7.30 p.m. Eastern. Number 23, Texas
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: A & M at number 10, LSU. I think both
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: these teams, really though, especially Texas A & M, I
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: think kind of dropped too far in the rankings. Because
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: you know what Texas A & M did. I already
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: talked about it. They lost to Kentucky last week. And
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: that was an ugly loss. And A & M did
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 2: at least outgain Kentucky in that game. So it was misleading.
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: Texas A & M lost the turnover battle. And that
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: was part of the reason they lost that game. So
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 2: I think it was a little bit misleading. You know
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: what I say, big favorite loses the game like that,
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 2: and now they're an underdog coming into the next week.
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: That's usually the team you want to look towards, and
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: that is the way that I am going to look
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 2: in this game, although I don't think it's going to
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: make the cut for me because I am a little
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: bit worried that that first game loss can kind of
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 2: hang you over a little bit sometimes, and it's A
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: & M' s first true road game of the season. It
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: is not going to be easy to go play in
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: Death Valley at night, although that will be factored into
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: the line here, though. LSU is going to be a
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: big favorite in this game and probably too big of one.
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: But generally, yeah, I think Texas A & M coming
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: off a real ugly game at home where they were
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: a big favorite. They lost to Kentucky. And it's not
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: like a situation where we think that, like, I did
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: not think Texas A & M was overrated coming into
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: the season. You know what I mean? Because they have
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys returning from last year, including their quarterback.
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 2: So we kind of know who they are. And this
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: was a playoff team last year. Playoffs. So, to me,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 2: it does look like it's going to be a bounce-back
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: spot for A & M off that hideous performance, whereas LSU...
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: They also took their first loss of the season, so
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: it could be a hangover for them, too. They're really
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: not battle-tested, in my opinion, even though Clemson beat us tonight.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 2: But still, LSU beat Clemson and then Latak, whatever. Then
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: they had their big game against Ole Miss last week,
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: and they lost that game. But I think that could
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: set up a hangover for both those teams. It'll be
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: a letdown for Ole Miss this week. But I think
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: for LSU, it's going to be a hangover. Because, you know,
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 2: LSU came back in that game, and it was a
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: tied game late in that game. It was a big
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 2: game for both teams. even though I think it was
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: probably bigger for Ole Miss' players because they got to
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: beat the coach that abandoned them, whereas for LSU, Lane
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 2: Kiffin probably wanted that game, and his players wanted to
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: play for him, and it's still a big game for
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: them against Ole Miss. But the game, I think, meant
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: a little bit more to Ole Miss, and maybe I
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: should have factored that into my opinion in that game
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 2: because my opinion wound up slightly leaning towards LSU in
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: that game. Not correct, but... Not a play for me
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. But anyway, I still think it's
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: going to be a hangover spot for LSU coming off
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: that huge performance versus A & M. Played very badly,
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: and I think they should be in a bit of
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: a bounce-back spot here. So I like Texas A &
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: M in this game, plus the points. It is not
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: going to make the cut for me. 66% of tickets,
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: 74% of the cash on LSU. The money looks like
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: it's slightly indicating towards LSU right now. They're laying 8.5,
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 2: 9 points. The line hasn't really moved off of that number.
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 2: Total's not that high in the low 50s. That's a,
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: I don't have too much on that. Otherwise it looks
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: like the money's kind of indicating towards the under in
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: that game. And, you know, I do talk about that
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: when you have a big battle like this between two teams,
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of two good teams. A lot of times
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: the defenses have more intensity and the under makes a
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: little bit more sense, but yeah, I'm going to wind
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 2: up not touching that game, but I would lean Texas
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: a and M in that game. Plus the points. All right.
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: Number 20, Oregon at number 12, USC, NBC, 7.30 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 2: This is one of those games, man, where the rankings
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 2: makers are not agreeing with the odds makers. Oregon, number 20, why?
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: Just because they lost in a tricky spot, weird spot
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: on the road to Oklahoma State. Now Oregon's ranked 20,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: even though they bounced back and they obliterated Portland State
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: last week. I like Oregon in this one, man. Just
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 2: right away, this kind of jumps out at you. Like,
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 2: why would the number 20 team be a three-point road
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: favorite against the number 12 team, right? The odds makers
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: are telling you the rankings makers do not have this correct.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 2: Oregon is not the 20th best team. They're like a
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: top probably handful of teams in the entire country still.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: Just because of one loss, you drop them all the
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: way to 20th. I think that's stupid. Oregon's the better team.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 2: The odds are telling you that they're good enough that
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 2: they would probably be almost a, they would be about
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: a touchdown favorite on a neutral. Basically. That's what the
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 2: odds are telling you. And I think they're probably correct. Um,
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: so yeah, I like Oregon in this one and Oregon
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: has extra rest cause they played on Friday. They had
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: an easy win over Portland state and yeah, sometimes the
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: extra rest won't necessarily help you, but you know, they're
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: going to show up for a game against USC. Well,
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: this is revenge for USC though. Cause, uh, Oregon beat
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: them last year, but that can only go so far, man.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: I believe Oregon has won eight of the last ten
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: games against USC, so Oregon has had their number. Lincoln Riley,
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: coach for USC. For whatever reason, since he's been at
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: USC or whatever, he has not been good against ranked
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 2: teams either. He's like 3-10 in his last 13 games
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: against ranked teams, so that is not good. So there
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: are a lot of things that line up for Oregon here,
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 2: even though I don't have this on my card, but
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 2: I do like this on Oregon. For USC... USC's got
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 2: a weird travel spot here, man. They just went out
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: to Rutgers. They were on the East Coast, now coming
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: all the way back to the West Coast for a
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: night game. At least for them, it's not a late,
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: late game. But you know, I talk about that. When
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 2: a team's on the East Coast and they've got to
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: travel all the way back West and play a night game,
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 2: it messes with your biological clock. It can mess you up.
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a bad spot for USC for
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: that reason. However... One of my hesitations with this is
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 2: USC played a bad game against Rutgers as a big favorite,
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: 21-point favorite. USC was, they had a seven-point game. I
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: know it was 14 for a while there near the end,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: but Rutgers kept cutting it to seven. It was a
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: seven-point game with a lot of time left in the game. Well,
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 2: over four minutes to go at least. So USC is
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: coming off kind of a close call there. That was
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: a tricky spot for them going all the way to
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 2: the East Coast for it. So a lot of times
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: when a big favorite plays, It gets a scare like that.
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: As I keep saying, a lot of times they do
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: bounce back and they do play better in the next game.
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: So that gives me a little bit of pause as
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: far as this game is concerned. But I like Oregon
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 2: in this one. That's how I'd play it if I
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: was going to play the game. The money seems like
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: it agrees. 60% of tickets on Oregon, so they're not
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: that public. 77% of the cash on them. Unfortunately, they
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 2: went through the key number because they were at 2.5
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: and now they're at 3.5. You might be able to
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 2: find a 3 out there. That's what I would do,
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: even if maybe you have to pay a little bit
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 2: of juice for it if you do it. But if
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: you're going to play Oregon, I would try to find
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: a three on that and lay the three. That is
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: what I would do there.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 2: Arizona-Washington State on CBS. How many games do we have left?
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 2: Hopefully not that many. 7.30 p.m. Eastern. Washington State finally
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 2: got a win last week against Duke-Ain. So sometimes that'll
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 2: give you new momentum, you know, when you finally get
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 2: that monkey off your back and you get a win.
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 2: It'll be a good thing. It'll give you positive momentum
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 2: moving forward. Washington State hasn't exactly had the easiest schedule.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: They had to play at Washington. Big rivalry game. They
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 2: played close-ish in that game. And then they went on
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: the road off of that in what looked like a
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 2: hangover spot for them. Weird spot. And they got killed
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 2: by Kansas State. So while I don't think Washington State
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: is good, I think maybe they're not as bad as
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 2: maybe they look so far. Now they get Arizona coming
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 2: in here. Arizona's got to go up to kind of
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 2: an unfamiliar place. Washington State. Arizona, excuse me, they're a
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 2: little bit more battle-tested because they played BYU on the road.
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 2: That was a tough game, and Arizona was looking like
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 2: they were going to cover in that game towards the end,
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 2: but BYU scored late to cover. Arizona coming off an
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 2: easy win over Northern Illinois last week, now going back
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: out on the road. I don't know what we do
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 2: with this game, to be honest, man. I really don't.
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 2: Arizona has Cincinnati next, which will start conference play for them.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 2: Washington State, they start conference play next in their new
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: conference in the Pac-12 with Fresno next. But Arizona might
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 2: be a little bit of a bigger deal for them
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 2: because Washington State is kind of in this lower tier
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 2: conference now. So maybe they will get a little more
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: up for this. Washington State's a public underdog, though, it
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: looks like. I don't know what to think about this.
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 2: 91% of tickets, 93% of the cash on Washington State.
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: But I don't think this is a game where the
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 2: public's really going to be getting much involved in this.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 2: Do you really think they're coming in and playing Washington
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 2: State in this game? I don't really think so. They're
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 2: a double-digit underdog here. Arizona dropped from a 12-point favorite
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 2: to a 10.5-point favorite. The total's low. It's in the
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 2: high 40s. And I usually like underdogs. With a low
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: total like that, I think I'm going to lean Washington
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: State plus the points in that one. Not a strong
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 2: opinion for me at all, but low total. You get
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 2: the home dog in that one. Don't have a whole
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 2: lot else to say about that. But yeah, next game
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 2: is my last of the best bets here. Let's do this.
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 2: Like I said, we're going to lay three with Utah
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 2: State here. I would find the three. I think you'll
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 2: be able to find the three out there. This is
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 2: on CBS Sports at 730. We're going to fade Troy.
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 2: I think this is a really bad spot for Troy.
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 2: They haven't really done anything impressive so far. They beat
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 2: Sam Houston, which I think was actually a misleading result.
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 2: Even though Troy... On the one hand, they were a
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: huge favorite, so they should have won this game by
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 2: more based on the spread. Sam Houston actually outgained them
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 2: in the game, though, so that's not a good sign
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 2: for Troy. Then they beat Alabama State and weren't that
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 2: impressive in doing that. Little brother in state, though, with
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 2: Alabama State there, because Troy's in Alabama. Whatever, then... Troy
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: went out on the road and this was their best
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 2: performance of the season last week against Missouri. They went
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 2: to ranked Missouri, 26 and a half point underdogs. And
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: what did they do in this game? They got out
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: to a 10, nothing lead. And then they were still
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: within a touchdown late in the game in the fourth
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 2: quarter before Missouri got a field goal to push it
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 2: to 10. It was a big performance from Troy, man.
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 2: So I think Troy is going to be hung over
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: after this, even though Troy did actually play well in
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 2: the game, did out, Missouri. But I think that's kind
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 2: of damning of Missouri, even though, yes, Troy did play
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 2: well in this game. And statistically, they should have won.
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 2: They turned the ball over twice. They dominated possession. They
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 2: won first downs. They won the yardage battle. But This
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 2: is a huge game for Troy, you know, coming off
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 2: a huge game against a ranked team like that. One
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 2: of their biggest games of the season, their biggest game
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: of the season, probably. Now they got to play a
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 2: second straight road game. They got to go out to
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: Utah into high elevation to do this. This is a
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: weird travel spot for them. I don't think it's good.
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 2: They're not used to playing a game in Utah in
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: high elevation like this. I don't think that's going to
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 2: be good for Troy. I think they're going to be
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 2: hung over. It's a bad spot for them. Oh, and
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 2: look at what we have here, by the way. 0-3,
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: Utah State is laying three points here against 2-1 Troy.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: You know what that means. The public's not going to
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 2: lay points like that. They're going to look at this,
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: why would I lay three points with an 0-3 team
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: against a 2-1 team, you know what I mean? That's
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 2: the spot where I do like to look for that,
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 2: because the oddsmakers are telling you Utah State is sort
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 2: of on even footing, at least, with Troy here, and
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 2: given the home field advantage, they're supposed to win this game.
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 2: And if you look at Utah State, look at their
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 2: schedule so far. Yes, they had a really bad game
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 2: in their opener against Idaho State. That was very bad,
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 2: even though I think Idaho State might not be that
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 2: bad of an FCS team. Still bad. Utah State lost
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: as a big favorite. But then what did they do?
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 2: They really redeemed themselves. They played pretty well at Washington.
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 2: And then they had to go to Utah. I mean,
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 2: Utah's very good. So I'm not going to knock Utah
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 2: State for having an 0-3 record when two of their
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 2: losses were expected losses on the road against teams that
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 2: are way better than they are. So Utah State, based
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 2: on how they were favored, should be a 1-2 team
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: right now so far. And they happen to be 0-3.
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 2: And while, yes, they do have Boise State next. This
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: is their FBS home opener, by the way. This is
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 2: their first home game against an FBS team. It's on TV.
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 2: I think they're going to show up. It's a, they
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 2: need to get a win, man. Like teams that are
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 2: own three are not going to be unmotivated no matter
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 2: who they have next. You know what I mean? So
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 2: I think they're going to show up for it. I
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 2: don't like the spot that Troy is in at all.
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: We don't really see, we don't see the percentages on this,
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 2: but Utah state will be the play for me. You,
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you'll be able to find a
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 2: two and a half on this, but three, you can
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 2: find a three for sure right now. So, uh, I
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 2: would lay three or two and a half on that,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 2: but I think you'll be able to find the three
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 2: on that. All right. ESPNU at 7.30. We have a
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 2: North Carolina in-state big brother, little brother situation, App State
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 2: and NC State. You know that App State always gets
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: up for these games against the bigger brothers, man. Although
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 2: NC State, you know they've been hearing all week about
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 2: how they should have won that game against Vandy and
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 2: they lost. Right. Uh, but sometimes that can kind of
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 2: get to a team and you know, like you can
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 2: mean the public is going to back them. Right. Cause
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 2: Oh my God, NC state had this good game against
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 2: Vandy and they fucked up at the end and it
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 2: was a game they should have won. Right. So that's
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 2: what you're gonna be hearing all week. I think when
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: a team's hearing, you should have won the game. I
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 2: think that's actually a negative. Whereas for Vandy, I thought
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 2: it was a little bit of a positive, uh, that
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 2: they're thinking all week we should have lost this game
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: because it's going to motivate them because they know they
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 2: didn't play well. But with NC State, I think they're
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 2: thinking we deserve to win this game, even though they
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 2: fucked up at the end and they blew it with
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 2: that stupid fumble in the end zone after they were
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 2: winning the entire game, and all they had to do
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 2: was take a safety pretty much, and they would have won. Whatever, man.
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 2: NC State, they could be looking ahead as well. They
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: got Louisville up next, ranked Louisville. So to me, this
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: looks sandwichy to me for NC State because even though
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 2: Vandy's down this year, that was still a big SEC.
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 2: It was an SEC game for NC State having to
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 2: play an SEC team, and they played well in the
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 2: game and almost pulled off the upset. Now they get
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 2: a little brother coming in. They might overlook, and they
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 2: got Louisville on deck. I like App State in this one.
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: Even though I worry a little bit because App State's
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 2: 3-0 and people are going to look at that and
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 2: be like, oh, the public might actually want to side
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 2: with App State a little bit just because they're 3-0.
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 2: And how's a 3-0 team getting two touchdowns against a
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 2: team that's 1-2? But I think the public knows, though.
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 2: Then NC State is obviously still the better team because
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 2: they have much more name recognition. Everybody knows they're the
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 2: bigger school. App State has not done anything impressive so far.
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 2: They beat Maine by a ton, at least. They beat
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 2: East Carolina in a close game. I think that was
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: an upset for App State, though, in another little brother situation,
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 2: so that wasn't bad. Then last week, they didn't do
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: well against Charlotte, but I think that's going to help
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 2: App State more here. I think the situation actually favors
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 2: App State here for this reason as well. I gave
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 2: you guys Charlotte as a lean last week, and I
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 2: put it in my pick seven last week, actually, and
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 2: Charlotte covered for us. They had to come back. They
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 2: were losing by three scores late in the game, I think,
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 2: and they came back and made it a one-score game late.
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 2: But even so, what I said about that game was
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 2: that Charlotte was actually going to be the little brother
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 2: in that game after App State had been the little brother.
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 2: In the previous game, I said that App State was
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: now going to be the big brother, and they were
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: going to be possibly looking ahead to NC State next.
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 2: I think that's what happened. They got caught, and as
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 2: a big favorite, Charlotte almost covered against them. So I
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 2: think now App State's going to show up for this
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 2: game because they got caught looking ahead to it. So
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 2: I'm going to lean App State in this one. 73%
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 2: of tickets on NC State, 71% of the cash. They're
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 2: a 14-point favorite. Yeah, so the money seems to agree
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 2: with fading NC State. It does look like NC State
• 2:03:52
  Speaker 2: is public here. I agree with it. I'll lean App
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: State in that one for all those reasons. Again, App State,
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 2: one of those teams coming off a bad performance is
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 2: a big favorite, usually a bounce-back spot, and you can
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 2: explain why they weren't good in that game, whereas NC
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 2: State coming off kind of a big game, and they
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 2: have another big game on deck, so... app state would
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 2: be my lean in that one and the more i
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: talk about it i like it a little bit more
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 2: than i did initially i don't i don't think i
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: want to do it put it on my card or
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 2: anything but i do like it a little bit more
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 2: than i initially thought i would app state all right
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 2: uh number 19 missouri at number 24 mississippi state 745
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 2: eastern on sec network this game is this is another
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 2: one where uh the odds makers are telling you something
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 2: different than the rankings makers. Mississippi State, even though they're 24th,
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 2: they just cracked the rankings. They're a six-point favorite over
• 2:04:44
  Speaker 2: number 19, Missouri. But I worry about some things. You
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Like when a team first cracks
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: the rankings, especially Mississippi State, when they have had multiple
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 2: down seasons in a row, I don't think Mississippi State's
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 2: been ranked for a few years now. And when that happens,
• 2:04:59
  Speaker 2: when we have a program suddenly ranked again, a lot
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 2: of times that team is being overrated a little bit.
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 2: When they do that. So that would worry me a
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 2: little bit. Even though when you look at this. You
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 2: do see the odds makers are telling you. Something different
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 2: from the rankings makers. So that would have me looking
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 2: towards Mississippi State a little bit. But the fact that
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State. Just cracked the rankings. And they seem to
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 2: be very hyped right now. That worries me a bit.
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 2: Now Mississippi State. They've done better than I thought they would.
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 2: I didn't think they were going to do that well
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: at Minnesota. And they crushed them. They just won at
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 2: South Carolina. In their SEC opener. But they did pull
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 2: off an SEC upset there, man. But still, I don't
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 2: think they're going to be in much of a hangover spot, though,
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 2: because they're coming back home. They're playing a ranked Missouri
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 2: team at home. You know, they'll still probably be motivated
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 2: for this. It'll be their home opener, whatever, even though
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State does have Alabama on deck. Missouri, though, you
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 2: got to think they should be in a little bit
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 2: of a bounce back spot because they played so badly
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 2: against Troy that. Usually, like I said, when you're a
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 2: big favorite and you play poorly, a lot of times
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 2: you do bounce back from a game like that. So
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 2: that would have me leaning Missouri a little bit. I
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 2: don't know that I do in this game, though, because
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: then again, like I said, Troy actually outgained them in
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 2: that game. So Missouri really has kind of been the
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 2: less impressive of these two teams. I don't know what
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 2: to do with this game, to be honest. They're just
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 2: conflicting factors all over the place. The money does look
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 2: like it agrees with Mississippi State. 64% of tickets, 83%
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. They're up from a four
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite to a six point favorite here.
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: So the money seems to be laying it with Mississippi State.
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 2: Guess I'll give in and agree with that, but I
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 2: definitely don't love it. But given that it seems like it's,
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 2: you know, usually you want to go with what the
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 2: odds makers are telling you over what the rankings makers
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 2: are telling you. That plus the market read, I guess
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 2: that has me convinced that Mississippi State would be the
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: lean there, but I really don't want to do it. Also,
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 2: SEC Network, 8 p.m., Tulsa at Arkansas. Tulsa, they're 3-0, but,
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 2: I mean... They had that one big win as the
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 2: little brother against Oklahoma State, sure. They weren't really that
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 2: good against Sam Houston, although they were in a letdown
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 2: spot in that game, so you can kind of explain
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 2: why they weren't that good. But then they beat East
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 2: Texas A & M last week, formerly Texas A &
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 2: M Commerce, which is an FCS team. Now Tulsa's got
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 2: to step up their game. They've got to go on
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 2: the road to Arkansas to an SEC team. While this
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 2: will be a big game for Tulsa, I would say
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 2: they should get up for this game. Arkansas is 1-2
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 2: right now, man. And it seems like Arkansas, like the
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 2: fan base is getting mad. They're putting paper bags on
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 2: their head. But if you're an Arkansas fan, how can
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 2: you really complain about this? Did you expect them to
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 2: win at Utah? Did you expect them to win against Georgia? No,
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 2: of course not. like almost every team in college football
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 2: would have lost both those games so it's not like
• 2:08:02
  Speaker 2: Arkansas is is bad so far this season they've had
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 2: a really difficult schedule like what do you want um
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 2: problem is yeah they have some big games coming up
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 2: against Texas A & M Tennessee whatever and I don't
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 2: really want to lay it with Arkansas, even though maybe
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 2: they will have to be motivated here, but the money
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 2: is coming in that way. 52% of tickets on Tulsa,
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 2: 72% of the cash on Arkansas. They're a 7-point favorite,
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 2: and they're 1-2 against a 3-0 Tulsa team. Usually, when
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 2: I see something like that, the 1-2 team being a
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: 7-point favorite against a 3-0, I will be leaning towards
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 2: laying the points. I'm not so sure in this one, though, man.
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 2: The money says so. The money says to lay it
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 2: with Arkansas, but It looks so easy to me to
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 2: do that. I'm kind of surprised the public isn't more
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 2: on Arkansas because everybody knows they're an SEC team. They
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 2: got that name recognition. The seven just looks like such
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 2: a low number to me, although it does seem like
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: the fan base and maybe the public are just really
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 2: low on Arkansas right now. I don't know. I don't
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 2: have a good feel for that game. The money is
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: saying Arkansas, and if you want to lean that way
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: because that's the market read, I guess have at it.
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Maybe I do slightly agree with it,
• 2:09:19
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. FAU at Yoel Monroe. It's not
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 2: a TV game, but I thought this handicap was a
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 2: little bit interesting. Yoel Monroe's 0-3, but they're coming off
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 2: a real ugly performance at home against Southeast Louisiana, who
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 2: is an in-state little brother to them. Monroe was a 9.5-point favorite.
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 2: Yoel Monroe, they suck. They're one of the lower teams
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 2: in FBS. They're probably the worst team in their conference.
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 2: The Sun Belt, one of the worst. But still, they
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 2: should have won this game against C-Law. And as basically
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: double-digit favorites, they lost this game. And what do I
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 2: always say? A big favorite like that losing the game,
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of times they bounce back. And look at
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 2: the stats in this game. Yoel Monroe outgained C-Law by
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 2: over 200 yards. They put up more than 500 yards
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 2: of offense. They lost the turnover battle, and that probably
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 2: had something to do with why they lost this game.
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 2: Because they dominated first downs. They won the possession battle
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: by quite a bit. dominated yardage. This was a completely
• 2:10:18
  Speaker 2: misleading result. And like I always say, when you have
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: a misleading result and involved a huge favorite losing the
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 2: game outright, yeah, that team usually bounces back in the
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 2: next game. So I like you all Monroe to bounce
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 2: back here and Florida Atlantic's in a tough spot somewhat
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 2: because they are coming off their big rivalry game against
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 2: FIU at the very least. And if you look at
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 2: what happened in this game, FIU outgained Florida Atlantic by
• 2:10:43
  Speaker 2: 100 yards pretty much, and yet FAU won the game
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 2: in misleading fashion because they were plus three in turnovers.
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 2: FIU should have won this game. This is the big
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 2: rivalry between FIU and FAU. But, yeah, so FAU might
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 2: be in a little bit of a letdown spot after
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 2: winning their big rivalry. However, they were favored, so they
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 2: were supposed to win this game. But the thing about
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 2: it was it was a misleading win for them. So
• 2:11:09
  Speaker 2: you have FAU coming off a misleading win, UL Monroe
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 2: coming off a misleading loss. So I would lean UL
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 2: Monroe in that game, even though FAU does not have
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 2: a big game on deck. They're playing an FCS team next,
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 2: Texas Southern. And the money seems like it disagrees with
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 2: me on this. 75% of tickets, 92% of the cash
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 2: on FAU. They're like a 12-point favorite here. Down from 13.5, though.
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I would lean towards taking the points with
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 2: UL Monroe there, even though they're a real bad team.
• 2:11:39
  Speaker 2: All right, Missouri State at number 22, SMU. I think
• 2:11:43
  Speaker 2: that was a winner for me on the show last year.
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 2: I think I gave up Missouri State on the road.
• 2:11:47
  Speaker 2: Excuse me, I gave up Missouri State at home against
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 2: SMU last year. It was a weird spot for SMU
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 2: to have to go out to Missouri State. Missouri State
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 2: had just moved up to FBS. It was like a
• 2:11:57
  Speaker 2: sandwich spot or something for SMU, if I remember correctly.
• 2:12:00
  Speaker 2: So I think that was a winner. I gave up
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 2: on the show last year. Missouri State covered against SMU
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 2: last year. They didn't win, but they covered. Now, SMU's
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 2: number 22 in the country right now. This game's on
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 2: ACC Network. Will SMU take Missouri State more seriously just
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 2: because of what happened last year? I kind of doubt it.
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, they still went into Missouri State and beat
• 2:12:21
  Speaker 2: them somewhat easily once they got it going. Missouri State
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 2: was hanging around in that game early, and they did
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 2: still cover that game last year. SMU's coming off their
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 2: biggest game of the season. It was fairly close against Louisville.
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 2: They have another ACC matchup next against Boston College. To me,
• 2:12:38
  Speaker 2: it still looks like they might kind of overlook this game.
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 2: I don't like the spot for SMU. Off that big
• 2:12:43
  Speaker 2: game against Louisville, it was their first loss of the season,
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 2: which might hang them over a little bit. This game's
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 2: sandwiched in between ACC games here. Missouri State, as far
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 2: as they're concerned, they just lost to Marshall. I thought
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 2: they would. They were a home underdog in that game.
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 2: This won't be their first road game, at least, and
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 2: it won't be their first trip to Texas either because
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 2: they already went to Texas A & M, so they're
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 2: familiar with traveling to Texas at least I'm going to
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 2: lean Missouri State slightly in this one. SMU is a
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 2: huge favorite. 33.5, 34, basically. The number was never 35,
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 2: so you did not lose a key number on this.
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 2: It was 34.5 at most, I think. 70% of tickets
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 2: on SMU, 60% of the cash on Missouri State. The
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with me and saying Missouri State in
• 2:13:29
  Speaker 2: that one. I would agree in that one with taking
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 2: all those points with Missouri State. All right, to finish
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 2: this off, I was going to talk about this briefly
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 2: just because I said I would. UMass at Sacramento State
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 2: was the game I mentioned earlier in the show when
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 2: I said there was a more ass game than Ball
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 2: State and Kent State. This is it. UMass at Sacramento State,
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 2: these two teams are awful. These are two of the
• 2:13:55
  Speaker 2: absolute worst teams in all of FBS. You might be saying, well,
• 2:13:58
  Speaker 2: what do you mean? UMass is 3-0, man. Yeah, well,
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 2: they beat two FCS teams. They had that ridiculous upset
• 2:14:05
  Speaker 2: win against Rutgers. Yeah, okay. Since then, they beat two
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 2: FCS teams. So, yeah, they're 3-0, okay. But come on, man.
• 2:14:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a team that was so bad
• 2:14:16
  Speaker 2: last year, UMass, that they were the absolute worst team
• 2:14:19
  Speaker 2: in all of FBS last year.
• 2:14:21
  Speaker 1: And.
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 2: They were so bad that I think they decided to
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 2: move back down to FCS at some point, although I
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 2: guess maybe it'll be next year or something. But now,
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 2: enter Sacramento State. These teams are both in the... This
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 2: is ridiculous. This is a Mac game. The mid... What
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 2: is it? The Mid-American Conference, and you have a Massachusetts
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 2: team having to go to California in the Mid-American Conference.
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 2: Totally makes sense. It's so ridiculous, man. But enter Sacramento State,
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 2: who I think might be the only team in... fbs
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 2: football that's worse than umass to be honest these two
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 2: teams are both real bad these are two of the
• 2:14:58
  Speaker 2: worst if they're not the two worst they're two of
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 2: uh the like probably two of the bottom five teams
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 2: in fbs at the very least even though umass is
• 2:15:07
  Speaker 2: three and oh who cares uh they had that one
• 2:15:09
  Speaker 2: huge upset against rutgers everybody remembers rutgers didn't pay attention
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 2: to it i think it was a fluke yeah umass
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 2: beat a couple of uh FCS teams, whatever. New England
• 2:15:21
  Speaker 2: foes there, including a Massachusetts battle against Stonehill, but whatever.
• 2:15:27
  Speaker 2: UMass has got to leave the Eastern time zone for
• 2:15:30
  Speaker 2: the first time. And you know, again, I'm going to
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 2: mention it. An Eastern time zone team going all the
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 2: way to the Pacific coast to an unfamiliar venue at
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 2: a 9 p.m. Eastern game. It's going to mess with
• 2:15:40
  Speaker 2: their biological clock. having to leave the East Coast for
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 2: the first time this year and go all the way
• 2:15:45
  Speaker 2: out there. I think it's a bad spot for UMass,
• 2:15:47
  Speaker 2: so I like Sacramento State in this one. Sacramento State's
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 2: played an extra game because they played in Week 0.
• 2:15:55
  Speaker 2: They've had a more difficult schedule. They've played three FBS
• 2:15:58
  Speaker 2: teams so far compared to the one for UMass, although, yeah,
• 2:16:01
  Speaker 2: UMass did play one Big Ten team against Rutgers, but
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 2: Sacramento State has already played a MAAC game against Eastern Michigan.
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 2: They played Fresno and North Dakota State So they played
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 2: a couple of whatever, Pac-12 and Mountain West games there.
• 2:16:16
  Speaker 2: Not any Big Ten games or whatever, but still. Yeah,
• 2:16:20
  Speaker 2: Sacramento State staying at home after getting blown up by
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 2: North Dakota State last week, whatever. I like Sacramento State
• 2:16:27
  Speaker 2: to cover here. UMass on the road like this, laying
• 2:16:31
  Speaker 2: four and a half points here. It's stupid, man. 82%
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 2: of tickets on UMass. Everybody is going to lay it
• 2:16:37
  Speaker 2: with UMass. Oh, my God, UMass. They beat Rutgers, man.
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 2: UMass might not be bad this year. Yeah, no, they're
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 2: still bad, okay? That was a fluke. Like I said,
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 2: the public is going to want them here because they're 3-0,
• 2:16:49
  Speaker 2: because everybody knows they beat Rutgers, whatever. 82% of tickets,
• 2:16:53
  Speaker 2: 71% of the cash on UMass. They're a very public
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 2: side with less of the money on them. The line's
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 2: dropped from 5.5 to 4.5, has not gone through any
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 2: key numbers at least. I would take Sacramento State plus
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 2: the 4.5 in that one. Bad cross-country travel spot for UMass, man.
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 2: Rice at Fresno State. Speaking of another team that has
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 2: to go out to the Pacific Coast for a late-night game,
• 2:17:17
  Speaker 2: Rice is a central time zone team in Houston. They
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 2: got to go all the way out west here to
• 2:17:24
  Speaker 2: face Fresno in a late game, so that might mess
• 2:17:26
  Speaker 2: with Rice with their biological clock here. Fresno is staying
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 2: in the Pacific time zone. Coming off a win over
• 2:17:34
  Speaker 2: San Jose State, I don't know if that's that big
• 2:17:36
  Speaker 2: of a deal for them. beating San Jose State, although
• 2:17:39
  Speaker 2: they do have Washington State next, which will be their
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 2: conference opener. So I guess that's possibly a look ahead here.
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 2: But it's a weird spot for Rice, man. Rice, yeah,
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 2: they're coming off a game against Western Michigan. yeah they
• 2:17:50
  Speaker 2: did play Notre Dame so they're battle tested but they
• 2:17:53
  Speaker 2: got destroyed by Notre Dame and then Rice yeah coming
• 2:17:56
  Speaker 2: off that loss to Western Michigan I guess the one
• 2:17:59
  Speaker 2: thing you could say about this is that Rice played
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 2: pretty well as an underdog in this game. They were
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 2: an 8.5-point underdog, and they only lost by 7, although
• 2:18:07
  Speaker 2: that was because they scored literally at the very end
• 2:18:09
  Speaker 2: of the game to make it a 7-point game instead
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 2: of a 14-point game. But statistically, the game was pretty close.
• 2:18:16
  Speaker 2: So Rice, yeah, they're coming off a decent performance as
• 2:18:19
  Speaker 2: an underdog. Now they're going to go all the way
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 2: to the Pacific Coast for the first time this year.
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 2: I'd probably have to lean Fresno in this one for
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 2: those reasons, but... Not a strong opinion at all, and
• 2:18:30
  Speaker 2: the money does not agree with it at all. 93%
• 2:18:33
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 88% of the cash on Fresno, so they're
• 2:18:36
  Speaker 2: public with less of the money coming in on them.
• 2:18:38
  Speaker 2: They're a 13.5-point favorite here. It has not ever been
• 2:18:42
  Speaker 2: at that key number of 14. But if you do
• 2:18:44
  Speaker 2: like the underdog here, which I don't really, the total's
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 2: really low. It's at 43.5-44, so that makes the underdog
• 2:18:52
  Speaker 2: certainly more appealing here because the points are going to
• 2:18:55
  Speaker 2: be worth more, easier for the underdog to cover in
• 2:18:57
  Speaker 2: a low-scoring game. All right, Georgia Tech and Stanford, the
• 2:19:01
  Speaker 2: last ESPN game, and it's an ugly one. 10.30 p.m. Eastern,
• 2:19:06
  Speaker 2: Stanford returning home from the East Coast, I believe. They
• 2:19:09
  Speaker 2: just went out to Duke, and they lost, but didn't
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 2: really think they were going to do that well in
• 2:19:14
  Speaker 2: that game, although Duke really manhandled them in that game.
• 2:19:17
  Speaker 2: Now Stanford's coming all the way back to the Pacific Coast.
• 2:19:20
  Speaker 2: You know, I talk about this East Coast travel to
• 2:19:22
  Speaker 2: West Coast travel. It's bad. It messes with your biological clock.
• 2:19:28
  Speaker 2: But both teams are going through that, I think, in
• 2:19:30
  Speaker 2: this game. Georgia Tech I'll talk about in a second. Stanford,
• 2:19:33
  Speaker 2: by the way, they do have a loss against Miami,
• 2:19:34
  Speaker 2: and they had a bye after that. We lost on
• 2:19:36
  Speaker 2: the show with that one. I thought Stanford would cover,
• 2:19:39
  Speaker 2: but they did not. But obviously they were not expected
• 2:19:42
  Speaker 2: to win that game, and I think they were a
• 2:19:43
  Speaker 2: pretty big underdog against Duke as well. Yeah, 9.5. So
• 2:19:47
  Speaker 2: Stanford's losing games that they're expected to lose. Coming back
• 2:19:51
  Speaker 2: home here against the Georgia Tech team that is down
• 2:19:53
  Speaker 2: on the season. And Georgia Tech, they're going east to
• 2:19:56
  Speaker 2: west as well. But the thing about Georgia Tech is
• 2:19:59
  Speaker 2: they have not left home yet this year. They've been
• 2:20:03
  Speaker 2: in the state of Georgia, and I believe literally at
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 2: home the entire season so far. Now they've got to
• 2:20:08
  Speaker 2: swing and go all the way out to California. That's bad.
• 2:20:11
  Speaker 2: And they have Duke on deck, although it's after a bye.
• 2:20:14
  Speaker 2: But I think it could be a little bit of
• 2:20:15
  Speaker 2: a look ahead there. So, I'm going to have to
• 2:20:17
  Speaker 2: lean to Stanford in this one, even though both teams
• 2:20:22
  Speaker 2: do have to do the East Coast to West Coast
• 2:20:25
  Speaker 2: travel here. Stanford is at least a little bit more
• 2:20:28
  Speaker 2: used to that because they constantly have to do it,
• 2:20:31
  Speaker 2: being a California team in the ACC. Georgia Tech, not
• 2:20:35
  Speaker 2: used to it, and they have... not had to leave
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 2: their state this year. The money seems to agree here.
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech, 65% of tickets on them, 84% of the
• 2:20:44
  Speaker 2: cash on Stanford. The line is 3.5, dropped from 4.5.
• 2:20:48
  Speaker 2: I would say if you're going to take Stanford, you've
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 2: got to at least get the 3.5 on this, which
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 2: I think you can right now, and that is how
• 2:20:55
  Speaker 2: I would lean in that game. That is where the
• 2:20:57
  Speaker 2: money is headed. Nancy, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 2: Late night. Less late for you, I guess, because you're
• 2:21:04
  Speaker 2: on the Pacific Coast, but yeah. I'm almost done. We've
• 2:21:08
  Speaker 2: got two more games left here. Fox Sports 1, Air
• 2:21:11
  Speaker 2: Force at Nevada. Speaking of Nancy, Nevada, Air Force at Nevada,
• 2:21:16
  Speaker 2: Fox Sports 1. This is Reno, though. We're not talking
• 2:21:19
  Speaker 2: about UNLV here right now, although I don't want to
• 2:21:22
  Speaker 2: dox it. I don't know if people know where anybody
• 2:21:24
  Speaker 2: is here, so maybe I shouldn't say anything, but nobody
• 2:21:26
  Speaker 2: watches the show anyway. Air Force... Air Force is coming
• 2:21:30
  Speaker 2: out of a bye, as I mentioned earlier. All the
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 2: service academies had a bye last week. I don't know
• 2:21:36
  Speaker 2: if there was something going on as far as the
• 2:21:38
  Speaker 2: service academies, but they all had a bye last week.
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 2: And I think it's a positive for Air Force because
• 2:21:43
  Speaker 2: they went into that bye on kind of a bad note.
• 2:21:47
  Speaker 2: They played North Dakota State, although North Dakota State's been good, man.
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 2: And I thought Air Force would be able to cover
• 2:21:52
  Speaker 2: in that game, but... You know, Air Force made a
• 2:21:57
  Speaker 2: huge comeback in that game, I'm pretty sure, just to
• 2:21:59
  Speaker 2: fall short. Yeah, Air Force was getting killed in this game.
• 2:22:02
  Speaker 2: I remember looking at the score. I'm like, well, they're
• 2:22:04
  Speaker 2: not going to win. They were down 35 to 13.
• 2:22:06
  Speaker 2: They came all the way back, and they cut it
• 2:22:08
  Speaker 2: to six late in the game, but it was too
• 2:22:10
  Speaker 2: little too late for them. But I think after a
• 2:22:12
  Speaker 2: big performance like that where they still fell short, I
• 2:22:15
  Speaker 2: think the bye will help Air Force having a week
• 2:22:18
  Speaker 2: off to recollect themselves, whatever. Went into the bye on,
• 2:22:22
  Speaker 2: I would say, technically a bad note. But they do
• 2:22:25
  Speaker 2: have Navy on deck, though, and that's a big game.
• 2:22:27
  Speaker 2: You know, the commissioner-in-chief trophy round robin type of thing there.
• 2:22:32
  Speaker 2: So maybe still kind of a look ahead for Air Force.
• 2:22:35
  Speaker 2: But I still think they have a little bit of
• 2:22:36
  Speaker 2: an advantage from coming out of a bye here. Nevada,
• 2:22:40
  Speaker 2: I don't believe they had a bye last week. They
• 2:22:42
  Speaker 2: had a pretty ugly loss, though, at MTSU. They had
• 2:22:45
  Speaker 2: to go all the way out to Tennessee. Nevada was
• 2:22:47
  Speaker 2: actually favored in this game, and they lost. They got
• 2:22:51
  Speaker 2: outgained in the game, too, but they did also turn
• 2:22:53
  Speaker 2: the ball over a lot. Looks like, based on all that,
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 2: they should have lost by more, pretty much, though. Nevada,
• 2:23:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think they're a good team, man.
• 2:23:02
  Speaker 2: And now coming back from Tennessee, I believe that game
• 2:23:05
  Speaker 2: was last week, so they don't have any time off here.
• 2:23:09
  Speaker 2: My lean is probably going to be towards Air Force here,
• 2:23:12
  Speaker 2: but let me just make sure. Nevada doesn't have a bye, right?
• 2:23:14
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think they played weeks one, two,
• 2:23:16
  Speaker 2: and three so far. As long as they didn't play
• 2:23:18
  Speaker 2: in week zero. Yeah, that's correct. So Nevada is having
• 2:23:23
  Speaker 2: to go from Tennessee back to the West Coast. They
• 2:23:25
  Speaker 2: have to play a late-night game. This is going to
• 2:23:27
  Speaker 2: be easier for Air Force to go out there from
• 2:23:30
  Speaker 2: mountain time. So Air Force only has to move over
• 2:23:33
  Speaker 2: one time zone, whereas Nevada is coming from the eastern
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 2: time zone, I think, here. Um, so the travel spot
• 2:23:39
  Speaker 2: is definitely worse for Nevada here, especially because air force
• 2:23:42
  Speaker 2: has a buy coming into this. Now, Nevada, 90% of tickets,
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 2: they're very public, 93% of tickets on them. And they
• 2:23:50
  Speaker 2: look like they're a public underdog. I mean, you could argue, well,
• 2:23:52
  Speaker 2: that means the money's coming in on them. I don't know, man.
• 2:23:55
  Speaker 2: Air force has moved up from four and a half
• 2:23:57
  Speaker 2: to six year. So does it really look like the
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 2: money is actually coming in on Nevada? Uh, I don't
• 2:24:02
  Speaker 2: really think so. I think Air Force is an anti-public
• 2:24:05
  Speaker 2: favorite here, man. I think Nevada is one of those, again,
• 2:24:08
  Speaker 2: dreaded public home underdogs here, and that is not where
• 2:24:12
  Speaker 2: you want to look. So I would lean Air Force here.
• 2:24:15
  Speaker 2: And how often does Nevada have to defend against a
• 2:24:17
  Speaker 2: triple option? You know what I mean? That's the other
• 2:24:19
  Speaker 2: thing you have to consider here. Teams that don't see
• 2:24:21
  Speaker 2: it that often do worse against it because they're not
• 2:24:24
  Speaker 2: used to facing it. So Air Force might have a
• 2:24:27
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra edge there as well. So
• 2:24:29
  Speaker 2: I would lean Air Force in that one. Go Nevada? Well,
• 2:24:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Nevada, they're like arch rivals with UNLV, though.
• 2:24:40
  Speaker 2: Minnesota at Washington is the last game on Fox. Washington
• 2:24:46
  Speaker 2: staying out on the West Coast here. They haven't left
• 2:24:48
  Speaker 2: the state of Washington yet, and they're not leaving for
• 2:24:50
  Speaker 2: this game either. They do have a big game on
• 2:24:53
  Speaker 2: deck against USC, but... Do you think they're going to
• 2:24:56
  Speaker 2: overlook their home opener in the Big Ten, though? Probably not.
• 2:25:01
  Speaker 2: And it's going to be a weird spot for Minnesota. Again,
• 2:25:03
  Speaker 2: another team that's... further east in the country, a central
• 2:25:06
  Speaker 2: time zone team or whatever. Minnesota leaving the state of
• 2:25:10
  Speaker 2: Minnesota for the first time. This is the first time
• 2:25:12
  Speaker 2: they're not going to be at home, having to go
• 2:25:14
  Speaker 2: all the way out to a West Coast game late night,
• 2:25:17
  Speaker 2: 11 p.m. This is a bad spot for Minnesota, man.
• 2:25:21
  Speaker 2: I don't like it, having to go late night, West Coast,
• 2:25:24
  Speaker 2: biological clock, going to be all fucked up from that.
• 2:25:27
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's going to have Michigan next, which maybe they'll look
• 2:25:29
  Speaker 2: more ahead to that. I don't really necessarily see them
• 2:25:32
  Speaker 2: overlooking Minnesota, their first Big Ten opponent here, but even so,
• 2:25:37
  Speaker 2: Minnesota also did not step up well in class against
• 2:25:39
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State in a game where the professional bettors really
• 2:25:42
  Speaker 2: liked Minnesota in that game, and I didn't have a
• 2:25:45
  Speaker 2: situational angle on it. I just know that the market
• 2:25:48
  Speaker 2: read was saying Minnesota in that game, and they got
• 2:25:50
  Speaker 2: killed in that game. Yeah, so I don't like it
• 2:25:54
  Speaker 2: for Minnesota. I think I would lean Washington in this one.
• 2:25:57
  Speaker 2: I think Washington might be a little bit under the
• 2:25:59
  Speaker 2: radar right now, although Minnesota looks like they are actually
• 2:26:01
  Speaker 2: getting the money. 61% of tickets, 70% of the cash
• 2:26:04
  Speaker 2: on them, although maybe you could argue they're public, but
• 2:26:07
  Speaker 2: that percentage difference might indicate the money is on Minnesota.
• 2:26:10
  Speaker 2: And if you like Minnesota, you're getting... You could get
• 2:26:14
  Speaker 2: 10 on this. If you like Minnesota, you've got to
• 2:26:16
  Speaker 2: get the 10. If you like Washington, you might be
• 2:26:20
  Speaker 2: able to find a 9.5. It looks like maybe not, though.
• 2:26:22
  Speaker 2: It looks like it is mostly 10 out there. But
• 2:26:24
  Speaker 2: the good thing for Minnesota is it's a low total, 45.5.
• 2:26:29
  Speaker 2: So low totals, like I say, the underdog has a
• 2:26:31
  Speaker 2: better chance to cover when it's a low total like that.
• 2:26:33
  Speaker 2: But I want no part of Minnesota in a travel
• 2:26:36
  Speaker 2: spot like that. So those are my thoughts, man. That's it.
• 2:26:41
  Speaker 2: That's all the games. We got five plays coming up tomorrow.
• 2:26:44
  Speaker 2: They better do better than that fucking play tonight. We're
• 2:26:47
  Speaker 2: going to take South Alabama plus 20 and a half.
• 2:26:49
  Speaker 2: But like I said, I think you should wait on
• 2:26:50
  Speaker 2: that and see if a 21 shows up because we
• 2:26:53
  Speaker 2: are fading a public Kentucky side in that game. So
• 2:26:56
  Speaker 2: even if you don't, I would still say put it
• 2:26:58
  Speaker 2: on the card. But I'd rather have the 21 because
• 2:27:01
  Speaker 2: it's a key number. And I'll update it in the
• 2:27:03
  Speaker 2: description as I watch the market and see if I
• 2:27:05
  Speaker 2: can pick one off somewhere. We're going to be on
• 2:27:07
  Speaker 2: Florida minus three and a half. And like I said,
• 2:27:09
  Speaker 2: wait on this one as well because the public is
• 2:27:12
  Speaker 2: going to be on Ole Miss here. And this is
• 2:27:13
  Speaker 2: one of the games that's going to have higher volume.
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 2: So I think it's somewhat likely you're going to find
• 2:27:18
  Speaker 2: a three. Again, I'm Florida here, so that's what I'd
• 2:27:21
  Speaker 2: be looking for. I like it a lot better than
• 2:27:23
  Speaker 2: three and a half, but that's what we're going to do.
• 2:27:25
  Speaker 2: We're laying the points to Florida. I would still, I guess,
• 2:27:28
  Speaker 2: put it on my card at three and a half.
• 2:27:29
  Speaker 2: Then we have games where you don't really have to
• 2:27:31
  Speaker 2: worry about the number as much. New Mexico State plus 11.5.
• 2:27:35
  Speaker 2: Georgia Southern plus 17.5. I don't think you're going to
• 2:27:37
  Speaker 2: miss that number, so get at least 17.5 on it,
• 2:27:41
  Speaker 2: but I think the number will be there. And Utah
• 2:27:43
  Speaker 2: State minus 3. Make sure you lay 3 on that
• 2:27:45
  Speaker 2: and not 3.5, but that number seemed pretty abundant. That's
• 2:27:49
  Speaker 2: going to do it. Learn to tone on Twitter. Learn
• 2:27:51
  Speaker 2: to tone on Instagram. It is very late right now.
• 2:27:54
  Speaker 2: I got to be back in the morning, of course, for...
• 2:27:58
  Speaker 2: the morning show where we're going to have to break
• 2:28:00
  Speaker 2: down baseball because we still have a couple more days
• 2:28:02
  Speaker 2: of baseball here, at least four days of baseball. It'll
• 2:28:05
  Speaker 2: be easier to hand you out the playoffs. Playoffs, because
• 2:28:08
  Speaker 2: there'll be less baseball to actually have to deal with.
• 2:28:10
  Speaker 2: And we'll have playoffs in the WNBA starting. Speaking of which,
• 2:28:14
  Speaker 2: subscribe to this channel. Hype it, subscribe it, pump it up, comment, like,
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 2: all that stuff. Tell people about it, and you can
• 2:28:22
  Speaker 2: check out my... I filled out the WNBA playoff bracket
• 2:28:25
  Speaker 2: in a very short video that I did earlier tonight.
• 2:28:29
  Speaker 2: We'll see about it. You can go check that out
• 2:28:31
  Speaker 2: if you're interested in what my thoughts are on that.
• 2:28:35
  Speaker 2: Listen on audio. The audio, we had a huge day
• 2:28:38
  Speaker 2: on the audio platforms yesterday from out of nowhere, and
• 2:28:41
  Speaker 2: if that continues... I'm going to be a happy man,
• 2:28:44
  Speaker 2: so I don't know why. Maybe it was a fluke.
• 2:28:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know why we had this massive spike. Let's
• 2:28:48
  Speaker 2: keep it going, though, man. Maybe people like to listen
• 2:28:50
  Speaker 2: to my stupidity and absurdity and autism and whatever. Maybe
• 2:28:54
  Speaker 2: they like my off-color comments and jokes. I have no idea.
• 2:28:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe they like my pics, but they're all buried in
• 2:29:00
  Speaker 2: these long videos. I don't know, but check it out
• 2:29:02
  Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. It's all in my link tree, too.
• 2:29:06
  Speaker 2: Covered in uke is my uke channel on YouTube. You
• 2:29:08
  Speaker 2: can check that out. Patreon.com slash learn to tote if
• 2:29:11
  Speaker 2: you want to. A Spotify ukulele feed with my bad
• 2:29:15
  Speaker 2: ukulele covers. Losercast every Tuesday night. And no idea if
• 2:29:21
  Speaker 2: the New York Giants G-Spot podcast is still a thing. Nancy,
• 2:29:25
  Speaker 2: thank you. Thank you for hanging out. Thanks, everybody, for
• 2:29:28
  Speaker 2: hanging out. Nancy, Zach, Lip Rips. Who else was in
• 2:29:31
  Speaker 2: the chat tonight? Mr. Pinsey. Biscuits and Gravy Enjoyer. Was
• 2:29:36
  Speaker 2: that everybody? Zach, did I get everybody? Did I say Zach? Yeah,
• 2:29:38
  Speaker 2: I think I did. You were in there multiple times. Yeah.
• 2:29:41
  Speaker 2: All right. Thank you, everybody. I appreciate it. Be back
• 2:29:44
  Speaker 2: tomorrow and probably add some baseball, at least, to the card.
• 2:29:48
  Speaker 2: Baseball's been doing well recently. Not happy about college football tonight,
• 2:29:52
  Speaker 2: and I lost one of my pick seven entry picks
• 2:29:55
  Speaker 2: with that one, too, so I'm pissed. We got to
• 2:29:58
  Speaker 2: get it back tomorrow, man. We got to have a
• 2:29:59
  Speaker 2: good day tomorrow and swing it back around. That's going
• 2:30:02
  Speaker 2: to do it for now. Peace.
• 2:30:07
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 2:30:12
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 2:30:15
  Speaker 2: You do not have.
• 2:30:17
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 2:30:24
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now.
• 2:30:32
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on.
• 2:30:37
  Speaker 1: Let me pull you out.
• 2:30:41
  Speaker 3: That bad luck bites hard, but it don't.
• 2:30:47
  Speaker 1: Get the crown.
• 2:30:49
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on, stay with me now Hold on,
• 2:31:00
  Speaker 3: hold on You're still here now guitar solo