Latest / Israel Policy Pod / The Highs and Lows of 2025

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The Highs and Lows of 2025 · Israel Policy Pod

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_05: Shalom and welcome to the Israel Policy Pod.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_05: I'm Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor to Israel Policy Forum.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_05: The holidays are nearly upon us, and 2025 is almost over.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_05: So you know what that means.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_05: The annual Israel Policy Pod end of year awards are upon us.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_05: It's truly a tradition unlike any other, especially since I don't think we did it for the last two years for obvious reasons.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_05: But this highly prestigious ceremony and podcasting gimmick is really useful in order to look back at the historic, challenging, frankly crazy year that just was, take stock, and focus on what Israel and the Middle East have in store for us in 2026.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_05: If it's anything like the past year, well, I don't even want to think about it being anything like the past year, but as always, handing out the awards and predicting the future with me, are Israel Policy Forum's very own Chief Policy Officer, Michael Koplow, and our dear friend and former colleague, Shira Efron, a senior fellow at the Rand Corporation and their distinguished Israel Policy Chair.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_05: And don't worry, just because this is the end-of-year episode, and it's a big one, doesn't mean it's actually the last episode of the year.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_05: We should have a few more for you before the ball drops, don't worry.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_05: But given the vagaries of Dr.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_05: Koplow and Dr.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_05: Efron's schedules, uh, we're doing this now, a few weeks early, so if anything happens between now and December 31st, you know who to blame.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_05: But on a more serious note, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you, our dear listeners and viewers.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_05: Remember, we're now a video podcast available on YouTube, for all of your support this past year.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_05: Through wars and more wars and ceasefires and even, dare we say, some positive moments.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_05: I'm always amazed when people from all over the world, believe me, either write in or come up to me and tell me personally, I listen to the podcast.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_05: So thank you all truly for tuning in.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_05: It always amazes me.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_05: And if the mood strikes you as well, 'tis a season, as they say, so do make a donation to Israel Policy Forum.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_05: 2026 is sure to be the best yet.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_05: If not in Israel or the Middle East, that may be a bit too much to hope for, but at least for this podcast.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_05: With all that, let's get to Sheera and Michael.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_05: Hi Michael, hi Sheera.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_05: Welcome back to the podcast.
• 2:34
  unknown: Hi.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Hi Michael.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: Hi Nari.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_06: Shera, I'm so glad you've joined us.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_06: She deigned to join us.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: You didn't do you didn't invite me last time.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: You went without me.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: I was I wasn't even aware until I heard you uh that you did this without me.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're allowed to, I'm not jealous.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: Cutting the records straight.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_06: It's not like fair.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_06: Neri and I had a good time, but it's it's it's not the same.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_05: Uh it's not the same.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_05: We can say that to your face now.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_05: I think we also pretty much said it on the podcast as well.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_05: So we're we're nothing if not consistent and honest.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, but yes, Michael pitched pinch hit a few weeks ago, but you were sorely missed.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_05: But now you're here to join us in this very uh prestigious ceremony, our pseudo-annual uh end of year awards for the Israel Policy Pod for 2025.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_05: It was nothing if not a roller coaster of a year, uh filled with well, all kinds of things that we're going to get into, looking back and taking stock.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_05: And then at the very end, I promise we're gonna do predictions for 2026.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, and that'll be, I think, even more interesting.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_05: But uh enough, enough chit-chat, enough small talk.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, without further ado, uh, let's get into it.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_05: Drum roll, please.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_05: Uh the first Israel policy pod end of year award is for the biggest surprise of 2025.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_05: Uh Michael, do you want to start?
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_06: Sure.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_06: I'm gonna go with President Trump's positions on Israel-Palestine.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_06: Uh I think that when President Trump came back to office, lots of people were expecting it to just be a rerun of his first term, where he effectively gave Israel anything and and everything that they wanted without really asking for anything in return.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_06: And, you know, we don't have to go through the entire litany, but you know, we all we all know the highlights, the embassy and recognizing Jerusalem and sovereignty over the Golan and literally building annexation up front into his January 2020 peace plan.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_06: And this version of Trump is different on Israeli-Palestinian issues.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_06: And, you know, he's he's still doing things that lots of people quibble with, but he's done things that are pretty surprising.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_06: Um, you know, surprising to even, I think, to folks like us who tended to have different views of of what we wanted to see.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_06: You know, the the Israeli right had these fantasies as soon as he came back that Israel would be able to do anything it wanted in Gaza without abandon.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_06: There would be no no more restraints.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_06: And you know, we were gonna see West Bank annexation and the the return of uh uh of settlements to Gaza and Gush Khatif.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_05: And literally the Israeli right here was physically dancing in the streets and saying 2025 would be the year of annexation.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_05: Precisely.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_06: And what we've seen is that even before he took office, he effectively forced uh a ceasefire from January through March on an Israeli government that didn't really want it, and it was the Biden ceasefire.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_06: And we then saw him effectively strong arm Israel into the actual uh, well, I don't I hesitate to call it permanent, but at least so far, what looks like a permanent deal, where the Israelis actually were trying to argue that Hamas had said no and the war should continue, and Trump said no, sorry.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_06: I say that Hamas says yes, and so now you're gonna do as I said.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_06: And not just he, but other Trump administration officials who in the past have been extremely supportive and even urging on West Bank annexation, have come out and said it's a no-go.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_06: Trump himself has now said it multiple times in extremely forceful ways.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_06: I mean, literally saying he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_06: So, you know, if you're if you're someone who's on the left or the center left, there's still plenty of things that you probably don't like about the Trump administration's Israeli-Palestinian policies.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_06: But the idea that this is going to be some sort of Israeli right-wing, you know, fantasy land where they get anything and everything they want, that turns out to not have been the case.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_06: And I think that uh to me, I've said this before, if there was literally one thing that I wanted from Trump, it was putting West Bank annexation completely on ice.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_06: I didn't think that we were gonna get it, and we've gotten it definitively, at least for now.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_06: So to me, this is the biggest surprise of the year.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_05: I've been told that uh a certain president in Washington, D.C.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_05: very much likes to receive awards.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_05: So the fact that we started with Donald Trump and gave him the first award, I think that bodes well for for all of us.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_05: Hopefully, hopefully he's listening.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_05: Hopefully he and if people are listening.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_05: Uh thank you for that, Michael.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_05: Uh Shera, what to your mind was the biggest surprise of 2025?
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I was I I was also uh thinking about um President Trump's uh actions.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think um, and you know, we all wrote about it, right?
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: The Israeli right sort of vision, the dream uh not coming to fruition, basically basically being crippled on on any any angle by President Donald Trump.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: But I think I'll just add to Michael said, and then I'll pick another one.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, I I think President Trump made it very clear what he thought about, you know, the UN.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: And the story goes that in his first term he wanted to uh turn the UN uh headquarters uh into a condominium.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: And to think um that the US, the Trump administration would lead a UN Security Council resolution and uh ensure that it passes, and really uh I this he deserves immense credit for this, right?
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: With no um uh uh uh Chinese or Russian veto and have the words Palestinian state there and talking about a Palestinian authority, even though it's I mean, we are talking pathway to something, yeah.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: But but just to think that this would come, and to me, it actually demonstrates uh great strength and strategic flex, you know, flexibility, just understanding that this is an institution that you have to uh harness in your favor and that is needed.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and it doesn't show ideological rigidity, which I you know commend them for for for uh act doing this.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: I know Nary, you want to say something, but then I'll have my pick for the surprise.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_05: Um, no, I was just gonna say for our listeners and viewers, uh you're referring to the UN Security Council from last month about Gaza and the ceasefire it endorsed.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: We can tattoo it, uh edited the list of UN Security Council resolutions.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: But but no, it's it's it's it was a meaningful, it's a it's it's a meaningful one, and text is meaningful.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that the US led it, I mean, not something that I think we would have expected, right?
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh them to do.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: And again, if if we are in uh praises to the president, I think uh they deserve a lot of praise for this, uh, for going this route.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so that's the one thing.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think I was I'll have another positive surprise.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, as we were discussing over the past two years uh the state of the hostages who will return and debating the numbers of how many living ones.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: And sadly, we know a lot many of them have died in captivity, right?
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking, I think 41 have lost their lives in in captivity.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um but all I've heard, including from intelligence uh folks here in Israel, is that Hamas does not know and will not be able to recover the bodies of many remaining hostages.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: We were talking about double-digit numbers.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm really, you know, it's it's it's such a sad ending.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: But the fact that families of hostages, except for uh one is obviously remaining, were able to have disclosure and bring them to a dignified burial.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: And I hate to say this, this is definitely not praise to Hamas.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want it to look like it, but I was I'm surprised that Hamas actually actually made an effort to bring back the bodies of the hostages.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: I did not expect this.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh on the living ones, we can talk.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_01: I actually, you know, we we could analyze um why Hamas uh decided to actually uh give up on what we thought was its biggest asset in negotiations, and I think it's because they got what they wanted, but but the remains and the bodies uh really, and I'm and I'm and I'm surprised, and I'm very, very happy to admit that I was wrong because I was anticipating a lot of you know, a few Rona rods, obviously the the Israeli um airman disappeared navigator never never returned.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we were expecting a few cases of those, and and for now we have one, and it's terrible enough, but I hope they find him and return him.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but it's not the the number the butt high numbers that we that I at least uh thought we were gonna have.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_05: Most certainly a very welcome surprise.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and the one remaining deceased hostage uh still in Gaza, Ran Ran Gvili, uh heroic Israeli policeman who was off duty um and leapt uh to the defense of uh southern Israel uh and was killed fighting Hamas terrorists, and uh his body was taken into the strip.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_05: So his family is still very much waiting for him to come back.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_05: But he's uh he's the last one.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_05: Uh you know, I thought you were gonna go maybe bigger picture with that, Shera, uh, because one of my biggest surprises of the past year is the fact that we actually got a Gaza ceasefire deal and that Hamas agreed to release uh all the hostages as part of it.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_05: Um, and that uh the war, as Michael said, for now uh has somewhat ended.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I was very skeptical, as you both know, and as our listeners know, that we would be able to get to that point.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, like you said, Hamas being convinced and then agreeing to release all the hostages almost at once.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, it's been taken two months, but you know, all the living hostages were released on one day, uh, which was remarkable in and of itself.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, and that the Trump administration and the others, the international mediators, uh convinced at slash urged Bibi Netanyahu to agree to the deal.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_05: So for two years, we were kind of waiting for this big bang of a deal, uh, and then we kind of got it very quickly, um, you know, early October.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_05: And it just it just kind of happened, uh, which was remarkable and a big and a big surprise because all of us were, I think it's fair to say, fairly uh skeptical that we could actually get to that point.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_05: Um, we don't need to kind of relitigate how we got to it, but uh it was uh it was a surprise nonetheless.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, my my official answer for the biggest surprise of 2025, it may be the most obvious Israel's launching of a outright war against Iran back in June.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, uh, as as you and I both know all too well, Shera, uh, and as our listeners know as well, um, you know, I was very much surprised by uh the launching of the war, the timing of the war.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I was not I was not in the country.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_05: So by definition, I I woke up I I got stuck for a few days until I was able to make it back.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_05: But uh massive surprise that A, uh Biba Netanyahu went for that uh highly risky uh move militarily, b that the Americans signed off on it, even if it was just kind of a yellow slash orange light.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, and then C that uh the US President Donald Trump yet again surprised us by actually getting involved with uh Operation Midnight Hammer, the bombing, the bombing raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_05: Uh so all of that combined, I think, was a massive surprise.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_05: It seems like it happened ages ago.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_05: Uh it was just this past June, this past year.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_05: So um yeah, major, major surprise.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I think my my honorable mention will go to the uh strike on Doha on Hamas headquarters on September 9th.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_05: That's my honorable mention for the biggest surprise of 2025.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_05: Nobody expected that uh when it when it happened, you know, one bright one bright afternoon.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, but it happened.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_05: Um, and with regard to that surprise, nobody can convince me that Israel didn't get the tacit agreement of uh the Trump administration.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_06: Michael, Michael His thing.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_06: I think I think I've I've come around on that as well.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_06: Um people might remember that uh I wasn't I I was wavering as to what I thought, but uh I'm I'm with you, Neri.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_06: I think at this point, um there's no way they didn't know about it ahead of time.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_06: No way.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: The question is what is ahead of time and what is knowing?
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_04: If there's um What are you are you are you you know getting notification?
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm saying that if it was like, oh, by the way, we're doing this now, and it's like, wait, now and we it's right in time to turn off some systems, but it's not in time to weigh the pros and cons.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, I I I don't have information as to uh whether the United States uh knew or not.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think Nary, you were cheating.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: I think you chose three awards, you had the strike on the entire deal, you have the strike on Doha.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, yeah, it's okay.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_04: Yeah.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just gonna say I might have more in some categories, but have zero uh ideas for others, but you can choose what I'm in.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_06: Then I like I like this I like this precedent for for my next seven answers.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_05: These are these are uh you know, like like what I hear happens in uh in uh youth sports.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_05: Everybody gets everybody to gets a medal, so every event gets an award.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_05: Um no, I uh I wanted just to get it in there uh because those things really really did surprise me.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um But now you give me another answer for two.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, no, I'm gonna go with two for my next one.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_05: Okay, well, uh Shera, you can start us off on the next award.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_05: Uh the second award we'll be handing out goes to the most underappreciated or undercovered story issue event of the past year.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_05: Basically, what flew under the radar, but really should have gotten more attention uh over the past 12 months.
• 16:57
  unknown: Okay.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_05: That's the award.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: Where are we gonna get to the biggest winner, right?
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_05: Because of um that's the that's the the biggest prize.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_05: I I feel bad for Donald Trump, though.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_05: I don't know.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, maybe he can get two prizes.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: As many as as many as needed.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_06: Um every every category.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_06: Sorry, go ahead.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_06: Listen, if if he can if he can get a FIFA Peace Prize while he wants a Nobel Peace Prize, then you know I'm sure we can give him multiple awards too.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: Field Fields Fields Medal format.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, but honestly, it doesn't, it's not about awards.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um we have to give credit where credit is too.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um what is underappreciated and undercover?
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh Nair, you just uh gave a few examples of this insane year, right?
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: So every uh I every week here, uh there's not a week that goes by without something crazy happening.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um so it's really hard to choose.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: So I think relative relatively under the radar, because everything else is seems so much bigger, and this is more of a continuous, is the uh there are the processes that are happening uh in the West Bank.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh there's uh um Michael spoke about annexation that is uh that had was stopped uh and vetoed by the Trump administration, but that is the jour official annexation.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: There's the factor annexation that is happening, play happening that is taking place uh in a variety of forms.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: We won't get into, but in very sophisticated ways, using uh um ecological farms um and as a means of taking over uh land uh with the full support.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the the it's it's an enablement um uh structures, facilitation of the government.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um there's of course the the economic uh situation in the West Bank, uh having suffering reduced revenues, reduced uh tourism, uh tax reduced taxation as a result of uh uh lower economic activity in the past two years.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: But also what had happened is of course the fact that Israel withholds uh tax revenue funds that it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority that's part of the agreement, but Israel doesn't transfer the tax revenues.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: It's been uh now you probably, but it's been over six months.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's the longest period in modern years that they have not so people have not received salaries.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking of many, many, many civil servants in critical positions.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, because I am usually quite tough on the Palestinian Authority, I think they need to undergo reforms, right?
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: But but to our US listeners, we just saw what happens when there is a government shutdown in the US and people don't get their PhD and how scary that is.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: And it's almost a miracle that the Palestinian Authority um has not completely collapsed so far and that people still go to work.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, even if it's part time and even if non motivation, I really think it's in a sense, uh it's I I never thought I'd say this, but they but it's it's really commendable that it's they're continuing to function under current circumstances.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, um uh in addition to.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: The territorial economic dimension.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: Um, there's the security issue.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: Israel has been fighting, um, right?
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Hamas also uh uh also in the West Bank, and that included a lot of activities against Hamas uh in the refugee camps in the West Bank, but also daily raids uh in city centers, stuff that we had not seen previously, right?
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: For the idea of to go at 10 o'clock in the morning on a Monday uh into the uh uh security square, you know, uh security square in Ramallah, those are things we just have not seen.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and of course, last but definitely not least is the settler violence.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's not a way of we it's Jewish terrorism.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um, of course, it's not the entirety of the settler public, uh, not at all.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but this is a problem that is not addressed in the full seriousness.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um and it's uh appalling, it's immoral, uh, it's extremely dangerous.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and we are seeing that the uh Trump administration is taking notice.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so when we do hear something else say something about it, and I'll just say something about it, it's clearly in response to US pressure.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but something has to happen, and that has to stop.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um and sadly, it's not what we're seeing at the moment.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: So I'd go, I'd go with this story.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_05: Absolutely.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_05: Uh the West Bank, I think in normal days would be front and center uh in the conversation on the front pages of newspapers, leading broadcasts.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, but given all the other fronts, uh it I know this firsthand, it's gotten short thrift.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, but all the things you just said, uh Shera, are extremely worrying, each one on their own, but combined uh and then combined with uh Israeli government policy and this Israeli government's policies on the ground, um, it's nothing short of a massive transformation uh on the West Bank from a position that wasn't great uh to begin with, even you know, before this year, let alone three or four years ago.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: And if I sorry, and I just want to add to this because I think this is something that at least my uh friends in Israel don't get, is that when there's a meeting between President Trump and uh MBS, Han Ben Salman Raiden speaking about uh normalization and what he what does he want?
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: We have a ceasefire in Gaza and this lack of understanding that when others look at the Palestinian arena, obviously they don't just look at Gaza and what's happening in the West Bank and the processes there.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: They undermine, I think, a lot of the uh chances for the what Israel wants uh from existing partners and potential partners in the future.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um and this is perhaps because it's underappreciated and underreported also in Israel, uh, this this story.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_05: Michael, thoughts regarding the West Bank and also uh your most underappreciated or undercovered uh issue of the past year?
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_06: No, no question on the West Bank.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_06: She was completely right.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_06: Uh, you know, you understand how it happens, right?
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_06: There's been so much focus on Gaza, but you know, we we've said on this podcast many times if it weren't for October 7th, the West Bank would be front page news almost every single day.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_06: And you know, we're now in something of a post-October 7th period, given the ceasefire and and phase one of uh what's going on in Gaza and all this activity around moving to phase two.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_06: And you know, you're seeing a little bit more coverage of the West Bank, but it's still not nearly where it should be.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_06: And um yeah, it's it's it's going to be a much bigger story, and I hope that people are on top of it before it metaphorically uh explodes in their faces.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_06: For my undercovered uh, you know, now now that we're now that we're doing multiple, I'll start with my honorable mention.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_06: Um really uh under underappreciated, which is uh I've created a monster.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_06: You have, you have created a monster, um, which is the the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_06: I think everybody understands it was it was covered, everybody understands that it did not work.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_06: But sorry, Nero, you looked like you were about to I was gonna say I was like uh undercovered.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, we uh I personally and then all my other colleagues in the media, um, we spent a lot of time and a lot of uh words on that.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_06: But sorry, I quite yes, I'm not I'm not gonna argue that it was I'm not gonna argue that it was undercovered.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_06: Uh I do think there's an aspect that is still underappreciated, which is that even though the GHF obviously didn't work, uh and I've harped on this before, but I just can't let it go.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_06: People still insisted on repeating the numbers that they would give out of meals that they provided.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_06: And I think what's still underappreciated is that the GHF did not provide even one meal to one person.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_06: They provided a 45-pound box of dry goods that had to be cooked without cooking utensils or cooking materials or working kitchens.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_06: So, you know, you want to say the GHF provided however many tons of uh supplies, that's fine.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_06: But people still keep on repeating this nonsense about the GHF providing however many tens of millions of meals or hundreds of millions of meals they claim to have provided.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_06: And in reality, they did not provide one meal to one person.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_06: So um that I think is is underappreciated.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_06: But that's that's my honorable mention.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_06: Uh the real thing I want to focus on is, and this is definitely undercovered, is Israeli treatment of Palestinian prisoners.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_06: And this is this is gonna make some people upset, but it's important to focus on.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_06: People will remember that when living hostages were about to come home, there was all sorts of talk in the Israeli press among American Jews about how the hostages were gonna were gonna be in very bad shape.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_06: It's what people expected.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_06: And, you know, I think that they were in, they ended up being in better shape than we thought, but certainly they went through horrific torture by Hamas.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_06: But people said, oh, watch what happens, juxtapose Israeli hostages with the Palestinians who are released from Israeli jails.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_06: And as it turns out, many of the Palestinians who were released from Israeli jails were in abhorrent condition.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_06: They had injuries, they had injuries that were untreated.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_06: There was evidence of torture and beatings and starvation.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_06: Uh almost all of them had scabies, a thing that happens in overcrowded situations.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_06: There was an audit from the Israeli Justice Ministry, the public defender's office, a few days ago of Israeli prisons.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_06: I think they went to eight Israeli prisons.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_06: And what they reported was that in every single one of them, Palestinian prisoners are being horribly mistreated.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_06: Again, um, without they're not getting medical care, they're not being adequately fed, they're being beaten.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_06: Um it's disgraceful.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_06: And to the extent that there's been a scandal in Israel over treatment of Palestinians in Israeli custody, it's been the State Teman affair, which hopefully is on people's radars.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_06: This was the thing that led to the removal of the military advocate general.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_06: Um effectively there was uh Nero, you're always better explaining stuff to our to our listeners than I am, but you know, uh effectively there were Palestinian prisoners who had uh alleged to have been sexually abused and tortured by Israeli reservists.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_06: And when the military police came in to arrest those reservists, there was effectively a January 6th type movement where Israeli protesters, including members of Knesset, stormed the State of Teiman military base in protest that these reservists were being arrested.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_06: And the scandal in Israel isn't so much that these allegations happened.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_06: It's that the military advocate general leaked a tape of it happening.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_06: People are more upset that it was exposed than it happened.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_06: And this is what happens when you have Itamar Ben Gvir as national security minister controlling the Israeli police, where he walks around boasting about the horrible conditions he has instituted for Palestinian prisoners.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_06: It doesn't matter what you think of Palestinian prisoners, and many of them absolutely deserve to be in Israeli prisons.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_06: If we're going to talk about Israel as a democracy and we're gonna hold up Israel favorably in comparison to all sorts of other authoritarian countries in the region, then this absolutely cannot go on, and there can't be any justification for it.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_06: And, you know, this week, Itamar Benir and four other ministers from his party, Otsmay Hudi, literally wore yellow noose pins on their lapels in the Israeli Knesset to show their support for a bill that they are uh introducing to reinstitute the death penalty for terrorists.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_06: Now, think whatever you want about that bill.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_06: Maybe it's a good idea, maybe it's a bad idea.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_06: These are Israeli ministers who are purposely taking the imagery of the yellow, the yellow ribbon for hostages and turning it into a yellow hangman's noose.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_06: Nothing about that is okay.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_06: And if you look at that and you laugh and you say, oh, ha ha ha, look, look at look at how well they're owning the libs, look at how well they're trolling folks on the Israeli left.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_06: This is exactly how you get to a situation where Palestinians are almost certainly being tortured in Israeli prisons and very few people care, and it almost never gets reported.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_06: So, you know, this does not obviously put Israel in a good light, but the standard shouldn't be what does or doesn't put Israel in a good light.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_06: The standard should be what should Israel be doing or not doing.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_06: And this is somewhere that we see all sorts of very terrible Israeli behavior.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_06: And I think if there were more focus on it, perhaps it would stop.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_05: Very strongly put, Michael, very well put.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I think it's an issue that deserves more attention.
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_05: And by the way, not only attention by people outside of Israel, but uh by Israelis themselves.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_05: Uh is this a country of laws and a democracy or not?
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_05: Uh is the IDF a real Western uh military or is it a militia?
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_05: And people like Ben Vir and others uh maybe have their answers.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_05: They would rather it be a militia in the service of a certain ideology and a certain worldview.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_05: Uh but that's not what this army uh and this country uh were built as.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and I dare say they for the most part, uh, it's not how this country and this military have acted uh in uh over the past eight decades of its existence.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_05: You know, with again, there have been uh certain exceptions here and there.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_05: But this is, like you said, coming from the very top and being allowed to happen.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_05: And it's a direct result of uh putting someone like Itamar Benvir in such uh a powerful ministerial post uh where he has this kind of influence.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_05: Um so thank you for bringing that up.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, this is gonna be a sharp transition, but uh I'll I'll stay on the theme of uh maybe more domestic Israeli affairs.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I'd argue my award for the most kind of underappreciated or uh undercovered story of the past year and really over the past few months in particular is the big, big issue domestically in Israel of ultra-orthodox conscription into the military.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_05: So Haredi enlistment in the IDF.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_05: Uh this may come as a surprise to our Israeli listeners and viewers, because it's such a big issue here, but that's precisely why I'm bringing it up, because I don't think it's fully understood outside of Israel how big of an issue it is domestically.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_05: Uh literally, it's the top story, has been the top story now for weeks, if not months.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_05: And again and again, you see it's not just polling numbers, the vast majority of the Israeli public and really the Israeli-Jewish public in favor of enlistment, a real enlistment law for the Haredi, for the ultra-orthodox.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_05: It's the stories you see and the people you see raising their voice uh against what this current government wants to pass as a real conscription law.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_05: You see religious nationalist reservists and their families getting up and saying it's it's a disgrace that we have served for 300, 400, 500 days over the past two years, and the whole segment of Israeli society is exempt.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_05: Um you hear parents of fallen soldiers, you know, again, in the media or even in the Knesset, getting up and saying, you know, why uh why did my son fall in battle and your son is not even enlisting and and in in defense of the country?
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_05: You know, is is my son's blood uh less equal than your son's blood in terms of the defense of the state of Israel?
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and again and again, uh this issue dominates on a daily basis the discourse here.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_05: Um and yet, and yet uh Netanyahu and his government, at least for now, are uh uh uh rhetorically and otherwise uh posturing like they want to pass the current bill that's uh being debated in the Knesset Committee.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_05: Uh but the interesting thing is that the Netanyahu's uh inside Netanyahu's coalition, there's there's a mini rebellion brewing, not only from certain religious nationalist uh Knesset members and even ministers, i.e., you know, kind of pro-settler ministers, uh, but even from within the Likud, uh from MKs that understand how wildly unpopular this issue is and how wildly um unfair this issue is.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_05: And again, whether they're doing it for kind of political gain and you know, they're trying to, you know, figure out what their next steps are or whether they actually believe what they say publicly, these politicians from within the Netanyahu coalition, it's immaterial.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_05: Because on this issue, literally the only issue for the past two years that they've actually uh dissented from the party line dictated by the prime minister up top.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_05: So I think for everyone on the outside of Israel, I think this is uh a major issue, which will have uh kind of ongoing ramifications, which we we can get into in the in the predictions for for 2026.
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_05: But uh I thought it would be important to uh to highlight that and also um you know throw in some kind of domestic Israeli politics, you know, to balance out all the all the love for Trump and all the uh all the Palestinian affairs.
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_05: Um moving right along, uh the third award we're gonna be handing out is for the biggest loser of 2025.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_05: Michael, do you want to start us off?
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_05: The biggest loser of 2025?
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_06: Sure, I'll I'll start us off.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_06: Uh honor honorable mention.
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_06: Bougie Herzog.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_06: Uh Bougie Herzog.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_06: There is no way that Bushi Herzog, the president of Israel, there's no way that Bougie Herzog wants to be put in the position that Netanyahu put him in, where he's he's submitted this official request for a pardon.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_06: Of course, it's not really a pardon because a pardon involves admitting that you've done something wrong or being found guilty.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_06: Uh what he's asked for is for Buggy to just make his trial go away without admitting any guilt.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_06: And Buji now has to decide whether he is going to come up with some sort of agreement that uh allows Netanyahu off the hook in return for something else.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_06: And if he does that, he will inevitably make probably a majority of Israel and Israelis very angry.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_06: Or he can decide he's going to do nothing and make a significant minority of Israelis very angry and hand Netanyahu a very potent campaign issue for uh for the next election to stir up his base.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_06: Definitely not a position that Boja Herzog wants to be in.
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_06: Uh, and so he's my honorable mention for biggest loser of 2025.
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_06: But my real answer is American Jews.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_06: Um we're not doing too well, uh, in case in case people haven't noticed.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_06: Obviously, anti-Semitism uh is up in all sorts of ways.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_06: We are being squeezed in every direction, right and left.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_06: Whether it is left-wing protesters outside of a very prominent synagogue in New York protesting an organization that is there to explain to American Jews how they can make aliyah, and having Zaran Mamdani, the incoming mayor of New York, say, well, that wasn't okay, but also synagogues shouldn't shouldn't, uh sacred spaces shouldn't be used in violation of international law, which isn't isn't really a thing, and in my opinion, is not even remotely relevant in this case.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_06: We have Tucker Carlson posting effectively a neo-Nazi, Nick Fuentes, on his podcast, and having that be defended by some of the most prominent Republican institutions like the Heritage Foundation, having President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_06: Vance kind of wave it away and reiterate that Tucker Carlson is their good friend.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_06: We have Marjorie Taylor Green just this week, you know, and who's now in some places almost becoming a hero on the left because of her falling out with President Trump.
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_06: We have her saying that the reason she doesn't vote for anti-Semitism resolutions in Congress is because there's way too much focus on this issue, and also she's not in APAC's pocket, as if APAC has anything to do with resolutions condemning anti-Semitism, as if this should have anything to do with how you feel about uh about Israel or pro-Israel organizations.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_06: And we have opinions in this country all over the place becoming scarier and scarier by the day.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_06: Uh, you know, I'll I'll mention the the Yale youth poll, which was released I think a couple of days ago, that has all sorts of terrifying numbers on anti-Semitism and and uh Americans holding anti-Semitic views.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_06: I mean, uh people should Google it.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_06: I'm obviously not gonna not gonna go through all of it, but um, I mean, you've you've got 21% of all Americans agreeing with the statement that Jews in the United States are more loyal to Israel than to America, and 40% of voters saying they neither agree nor disagree.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_06: And when you look at 18 to 22-year-olds, 30% of them agree that Jews in the United States are more loyal to Israel than to America, and 35% say they neither agree nor disagree.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_06: And you have numbers like this on, you know, there's a question about whether Jews in the United States have too much power.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_06: Uh, again, here it's it's 16% overall agree with that, and 31% don't have an opinion.
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_06: They neither agree nor disagree.
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_06: And when you look at 18 to 22-year-olds, 27% of them agree that Jews in the United States have too much power, and 26% say they neither agree nor disagree.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_06: So that's a majority of 18 to 22 year olds, a majority who do not disagree with the statement Jews in the United States have too much power.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_06: This is this is not going anywhere good.
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_06: Um, and that's before we even get to the fact that the Jewish community itself is kind of tearing itself apart over loyalty tests and Purity tests and what we define as anti-Semitism and who we align with.
• 40:06
  SPEAKER_06: So American Jews did not have a great 2025.
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_06: I'm hopeful that 2026 will be much better.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_06: I'm hopeful that because the the Gaza war is over, that that will calm some of this down.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_06: But American Jews did not have a great year.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_05: That is a horrific choice, but a arguably correct choice, Michael.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_05: Thank you for explaining and elucidating what's happening uh closer to your neck of the woods, which uh I don't think is often uh appreciated by Israelis, frankly.
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_05: How difficult the past two years have been uh outside of Israel.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_05: Obviously, it's been hugely difficult inside of Israel, uh, but not only.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_05: Um shall I go, Shera?
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_05: Shall I give my award for the biggest loser of 2025?
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_01: Whatever you want.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_05: It's the nicest you've ever been on the podcast, towards me.
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_05: Uh no, look, my uh my biggest loser of 2025, um, Iran.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_05: Iran, uh yeah, it's a good choice, isn't it?
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_05: For those who can't see Shira's reaction.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I think it's very clear.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_05: Uh obviously this comes after a not a great 2024 for Iran, given what happened to its close proxy and ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon, uh, and the two exchanges uh between Israel and Iran um that happened in 2024, the first time ever that there were two countries are firing at each other.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_05: But you know, the June war, the 12-day war, was on a whole different level.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_05: And no matter if you think that it was uh, how did Donald Trump put it, a complete obliteration job uh vis-a-vis the Iranian nuclear program or not, um, you know, it's very hard to argue with the fact that Israel came out ahead uh after the 12 days.
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_05: Uh really a remarkable piece of um, well, military action taken by Israel.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and it wasn't a given that the war would look like that.
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_05: Uh obviously there was major damage on the Israeli home front, and um uh I think over 30 casualties, but far less than well, anybody uh could have imagined, and what actually was officially estimated by the IDF.
• 42:21
  SPEAKER_05: So uh I think Israel uh did a lot more damage to Iran than Iran did to Israel.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_05: Um Iran effectively has no air defenses anymore.
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_05: Uh its nuclear facilities are either severely damaged or um, well, completely damaged.
• 42:38
  SPEAKER_05: Again, assessments differ.
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I was told a few days ago, you know, Iran hasn't, to the best of anyone's understanding, hasn't even restarted enrichment, despite certain headlines here and there.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_05: Uh yes, they're trying to reconstitute their ballistic missile program, but you know, that's essentially all they have.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_05: Combined with all the domestic turmoil um predating the war, but also coming out of the war, uh Supreme Leader Ali Khamani is probably at his weakest point ever.
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_05: Um he's not a young man by any stretch of the imagination.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_05: Succession battles inside Iran.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_05: Um, to say nothing, by the way, I completely forgot to mention the you know, the senior command was taken out in the in the early hours of the Israeli operation, uh, a bunch of nuclear scientists.
• 43:22
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, it goes on and on.
• 43:24
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, so now uh effectively Iran is uh stuck between a Iraq and a hard place, uh, doesn't really know which way it should go strategically, um, and is kind of just trying to lick its wounds and buy time while attention I suppose is is focused elsewhere.
• 43:42
  SPEAKER_05: Uh but uh you know I don't think it's arguable that uh it came out a massive loser uh from 2025.
• 43:50
  SPEAKER_05: And by the way, um, you know, two things happened that could have implications for the future.
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_05: Number one, Israel showed that it is willing and able to strike Iran in a real way, right?
• 44:03
  SPEAKER_05: That wasn't a given.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_05: None of us quite knew that uh it was it was militarily possible.
• 44:08
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and number two, uh US president showed that he was willing to strike Iran, uh also a first.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_05: So um you know it doesn't auger well for Iran's future, and uh well, maybe we'll get into it in the predictions about what 2026 holds for the Islamic Republic.
• 44:26
  SPEAKER_05: Shira, you're up.
• 44:29
  unknown: Okay.
• 44:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um I I it's almost like I want to take my time to respond to what you said, but I'll I'll connect it to my to my own.
• 44:37
  SPEAKER_04: Wait, do you do you disagree?
• 44:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the way we define uh victor uh what what it means to be uh victorious and what it means to be loser is different.
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh speaking with Iranians and hearing in Iranian eyes they had Israel and the US come at them.
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_01: They still fought until the last day.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_01: I know from Israeli defense officials who were really impressed with the fact that with no air defenses, they kept firing an Ari if you came back to Israel.
• 45:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think by then you were back here.
• 45:08
  SPEAKER_01: The last day here was oh my god, I mean, they kept firing.
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_01: They um kept firing a lot without air defenses.
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um the fact that they of course I don't think they have the full truth, so they overestimate the damage they they made in Israel, but the fact that they were able to penetrate the most sophisticated air defense systems in the world uh is for them um an an achievement.
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_01: And the fact that they imagine, they they think that what Israel really wanted was a regime change.
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_01: And in Iranian Which is not true.
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think Israel didn't want it.
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think this military operation was designed to achieve that.
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, Israel wants regime change.
• 45:50
  SPEAKER_01: I mean Iranians want regime change, but I think this was the plus.
• 45:53
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm just saying from Iranian eyes, that the Iranian people showed resilience and that they have not lost.
• 46:00
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that they're still standing, in their eyes, this means that, yeah, we lost this battle, but not the war.
• 46:08
  SPEAKER_01: And from an Israeli standpoint, right?
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_01: Always what were the three pillars of Iranian uh uh deterrence?
• 46:13
  SPEAKER_01: It was the obviously the being a nuclear uh threshold state, uh, the the missiles, um, and the proxy network.
• 46:21
  SPEAKER_01: And on each one of them is Iran is much weaker.
• 46:24
  SPEAKER_01: I agree with you that in this round, Iran is much weaker.
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_01: But have we solved any of these problems?
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_01: We're seeing that it's it's harder on the proxies, but we just got a shipment of uh uh short-range missiles to Hezbollah uh a couple of weeks ago, and they're still arming the Houthis and they're working in Iraq.
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's gonna take more time, but it doesn't mean that they're not gonna uh try to strengthen again the proxy network, and we'll see when it happens.
• 46:48
  SPEAKER_01: On the missiles, we already know that they're working on uh different uh variants that they have.
• 46:53
  SPEAKER_01: We know there was this report now on Pickaxe Mountain.
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_01: There's more uh reporting on activity in nuclear reactors in the Tanz and Isfahan.
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_01: And this also, this enriched uranium, right?
• 47:05
  SPEAKER_01: The 408 kilograms and different uranium, we don't know where where it is.
• 47:10
  SPEAKER_01: I am not saying that this has not, uh Iran is not, doesn't have the low, that Israel doesn't have the upper hand.
• 47:18
  SPEAKER_01: But did we push Iran further into uh did we push them to make a decision to break into a nuclear weapon?
• 47:26
  SPEAKER_01: And the jury is still out on that.
• 47:28
  SPEAKER_01: So so I think I'd be um what is our goal?
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_01: Our goal is to change the calculus, and I'll I'll I'll just I'll just to change the Iranian calculation, right?
• 47:38
  SPEAKER_01: This is this is our goal, and I'm not sure that this uh round of fighting has achieved this goal.
• 47:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'll I mean there's so much to say about losers, and you know, Michael was speaking about American Jews and no, because I think it's true.
• 47:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think I was just spending some time in Europe and different different conferences, and what you hear then on anti-Semitism and European Jews, right?
• 47:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's it's really difficult and something that I think Israelis don't appreciate uh on other side.
• 48:04
  SPEAKER_01: But I will say also on Iran and connecting it to we can all celebrate here over the remarkable Israeli military achievements.
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_01: And there were many over the past year, essentially, and the year before.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_01: But um, I think what the big the biggest loser is Israeli diplomacy.
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's almost we forgot this tool.
• 48:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's like a tool that we don't have don't have in the toolbox.
• 48:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I will tell you something that a Lebanese friend told me.
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's not mine, but it's good.
• 48:29
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying who this person is, but I'll uh paraphrase.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_01: He said, Israel is amazing.
• 48:34
  SPEAKER_01: You guys are terrific.
• 48:36
  SPEAKER_01: You can find the watch of Eliko and a spy in the SEM in Syria 40 years later after it was lost.
• 48:41
  SPEAKER_01: You do these crazy things with the pagers, you attack here, you dismantle this, you have the big, the best intelligence penetration.
• 48:49
  SPEAKER_01: But he said, but you know, even if you have the best run in the casino and all the chips mount, at some point you go and you cash them in.
• 48:58
  SPEAKER_01: Because otherwise the house loses.
• 49:01
  SPEAKER_01: And we forgot that part, right?
• 49:03
  SPEAKER_01: What do we do?
• 49:04
  SPEAKER_01: There's uh change the Israeli actions uh uh inadvertently, or uh sort of like it's a combination of really uh immense capabilities and sophistication and sheer luck, right?
• 49:19
  SPEAKER_01: Changing, having an opportunity to change the face of the Middle East.
• 49:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um Gaza, I'm putting aside, but Syria and Lebanon and and and obviously, I mean, and and changes in even in Yemen, and you just mentioned Iran, and where are the agreements?
• 49:36
  SPEAKER_01: Why are we not signing a security agreement with Syria?
• 49:40
  SPEAKER_01: Why are we not pushing?
• 49:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's yeah, it's true that Lebanon is not disarming Hezbollah the way it should, but are there steps and were there steps that Israel could have taken in the past year to strengthen uh this process?
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, with Iran, I think, I mean, maybe it's not a popular view uh in Israel, but now, after we show that Iran is not 10 foot tall and Iran is on its back, instead of incentivizing it to push to a bomb, I think Israel should support efforts to reach an agreement with Iran.
• 50:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um and we we forget that this is uh this is sort of the next natural step after victory.
• 50:12
  SPEAKER_01: So this this would be my loser of the year.
• 50:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I hope next year we'll be different.
• 50:18
  SPEAKER_05: Very uh very worthwhile choice.
• 50:20
  SPEAKER_05: I like uh outside the box thinking.
• 50:22
  SPEAKER_05: And by the way, uh we don't always have to agree on the Israel policy pod.
• 50:26
  SPEAKER_05: Uh disagreement is uh make makes for good uh makes for good podcasting.
• 50:31
  SPEAKER_05: Um I'm curious to get Michael's uh what uh we'll go with Michael for the tiebreaker.
• 50:36
  SPEAKER_05: You know, Iran, Iran, uh how how big of a loser or winner-loser?
• 50:41
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I'm seeing you, Michael, next week.
• 50:43
  SPEAKER_06: So like I'm gonna see him too.
• 50:47
  SPEAKER_06: Yeah, I was gonna say you're you're you're you're both gonna see me next week.
• 50:49
  SPEAKER_06: Um I I tend to think that Iran is a uh is a bigger loser than winner of 2025.
• 50:56
  SPEAKER_06: Not of course that Shire was saying that Iran is winner.
• 50:59
  SPEAKER_05: I know, I know not say Iran is a winner, definitely loser, but I think we shouldn't like just look, as as a wise, as a wise uh US president once said, there are only two types of people in this world, winners and losers.
• 51:14
  SPEAKER_05: So, you know.
• 51:15
  SPEAKER_05: And we're we're gonna get to the winners uh in just a second.
• 51:18
  SPEAKER_05: Sorry.
• 51:18
  SPEAKER_05: Uh Mike.
• 51:19
  SPEAKER_06: I I do I do think Iran uh was was a big loser this year.
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_06: Uh and I also agree with Shera that uh Israeli diplomacy um seem seems to be something that uh that is that is gone.
• 51:29
  SPEAKER_06: You know, we could even mention the fact that the the the foreign ministry has kind of been um in many ways hallowed out and um you know there there does seem to be only one tool in the Israeli toolbox these days.
• 51:41
  SPEAKER_06: So point for Shera, point for me?
• 51:44
  SPEAKER_06: To be to be continued.
• 51:48
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• 52:45
  SPEAKER_05: I think the biggest surprise, if not 2025, then this podcast episode is that uh for the biggest loser of 2025, nobody uh brought up the name Benny Gantz.
• 52:55
  SPEAKER_06: So uh he will be my honorable mention.
• 52:58
  SPEAKER_06: Can we just can we just make him sort of the like you know perennial perennial Israel policy pod loser and we don't even have to mention him?
• 53:05
  SPEAKER_06: Name the award after him.
• 53:07
  SPEAKER_05: I think that's that that's un unfair.
• 53:09
  SPEAKER_05: Uh how dare you, how dare you insinuate that uh Michael Koplow and definitely not Nary Zilver.
• 53:14
  SPEAKER_05: Um but look, I I think he's a uh at least a two-time winner of this award, uh, going back to a couple years ago.
• 53:22
  SPEAKER_05: But I looked it up before we started recording.
• 53:25
  SPEAKER_05: Do you guys remember how many seats Benny Gantz and his national union party were polling in December of 2024?
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_05: Was it 40, 35?
• 53:37
  SPEAKER_05: No, you're thinking, you know, I'm sorry, I'm thinking of the previous slides.
• 53:41
  SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
• 53:42
  SPEAKER_06: December 2024, I don't remember.
• 53:44
  SPEAKER_05: 19.
• 53:45
  SPEAKER_05: Still very high.
• 53:46
  SPEAKER_05: He was a second largest party according to the polls behind the cud a year ago.
• 53:51
  SPEAKER_05: And now, as some of our listeners may be uh all too aware, uh he's below the threshold for entry into Knesset, i.e., he doesn't even get four seats.
• 54:01
  SPEAKER_05: And yet another close political ally, Gaddyisencot, uh broke from him earlier this year.
• 54:07
  SPEAKER_05: Uh so uh it's a long list of allies and number twos that Benigantz um has not has not been able to uh to get along with.
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and now his political future is very much in doubt.
• 54:20
  SPEAKER_05: And by extension, the prospects for the Antinetanyahu bloc uh is very much in doubt in the next election.
• 54:28
  SPEAKER_05: If he uh runs alone and doesn't get into the Knesset, he could uh waste votes and waste seats.
• 54:35
  SPEAKER_05: Um, again, depending on whether you think Benigant is still in the anti-Netanyahu bloc these days.
• 54:40
  SPEAKER_05: Uh but I was at uh the demonstration in Habima Square in central Tel Aviv a few weeks ago, a few Saturdays ago, and this was uh really the first time that the most of the opposition leaders came out uh publicly together to protest.
• 54:54
  SPEAKER_05: It was uh in favor of the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the disaster that was October 7th.
• 55:01
  SPEAKER_05: Um so Naftali Bennett was there, Gadi Eisencourt was there, Yayelapid was there, Yael Ghuran was there, uh, as was Benny Gantz.
• 55:09
  SPEAKER_05: And Benny Gantz, and I was watching closely next to the stage, Benny Gantz uh stood uh in a corner by himself.
• 55:17
  SPEAKER_05: Not only did he not exchange a word with the other political leaders, the opposition leaders, he didn't even exchange a glance uh with the other opposition leaders, and the feeling was mutual.
• 55:27
  SPEAKER_05: Let's put it that way.
• 55:29
  SPEAKER_05: So um his political future uh is very much in doubt, as is uh as is Israel's political future by extension.
• 55:37
  SPEAKER_05: So uh I think honorable mention to uh to Betty Gantz because uh whatever he's tried to do over the past year um has has not worked.
• 55:44
  SPEAKER_05: So hopefully next year he'll make better decisions.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_05: Um Yala, moving right along, the fourth and final end-of-year award, and it's a big one.
• 55:56
  SPEAKER_05: The biggest winner of 2025.
• 56:00
  SPEAKER_05: Michael, you want to start us off?
• 56:03
  SPEAKER_06: I'm gonna go with Ron Dermer.
• 56:05
  SPEAKER_06: Oh.
• 56:08
  SPEAKER_06: There are you know more more obvious more obvious picks.
• 56:10
  SPEAKER_06: I won't, I won't even do an honorable mention because I don't want to take take one of the other picks away from from one of you guys potentially, but I'm gonna go with Ron Dermer.
• 56:19
  SPEAKER_06: Ron Dermer's uh he I mean he's he's said this for years.
• 56:22
  SPEAKER_06: Kind of the the mission of his life was to get Israel and the United States to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.
• 56:31
  SPEAKER_06: And he spent decades trying to make that happen, and this is the year that it happened.
• 56:38
  SPEAKER_06: And uh I I think that um he probably worked on this issue more.
• 56:46
  SPEAKER_06: I don't want to say for longer, because Bibi Nisanyao, of course, has you know been talking about this forever as well.
• 56:51
  SPEAKER_06: But I'll bet he worked on this issue more than anybody else.
• 56:54
  SPEAKER_06: And um, he got it.
• 56:56
  SPEAKER_06: And not only that, he was at some point this year appointed in charge of the hostage negotiations.
• 57:05
  SPEAKER_06: He got widely panned for the job he was doing.
• 57:08
  SPEAKER_06: Hostage families were very upset with him.
• 57:09
  SPEAKER_06: But guess what?
• 57:10
  SPEAKER_06: We're sitting here now at the end of the year, and except for the body of uh uh of Ram Gavili, all the hostages are back.
• 57:19
  SPEAKER_06: And I have I have no idea uh what what role he played in that, um, whether he was helpful, whether he was an obstacle.
• 57:26
  SPEAKER_06: It doesn't really matter.
• 57:27
  SPEAKER_06: This this was the thing that was put under his purview and it actually happened.
• 57:31
  SPEAKER_06: And then, you know, for the uh for the cherry on top of the Sunday, he retired.
• 57:36
  SPEAKER_06: So he now no longer has to retired.
• 57:39
  SPEAKER_06: Yes, I know.
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_06: Retired quotation part.
• 57:41
  SPEAKER_06: Yes, retired in air quotes.
• 57:43
  SPEAKER_06: But uh, you know, he's he's no longer Israel strategic affairs minister.
• 57:47
  SPEAKER_06: It means he's free to do other things.
• 57:49
  SPEAKER_06: Uh I'm sure that he's going to play a Jared Kushner type role and that he he's gonna be heavily involved behind the scenes.
• 57:56
  SPEAKER_06: Prime Minister Insyao is still gonna lean on him for for all sorts of things, but he's now officially a private citizen.
• 58:03
  SPEAKER_06: You know, there are there's there there are rumors that he's gonna move to the United States.
• 58:07
  SPEAKER_06: Um so, you know, he he may end up making a lot of money, um, hanging out in Miami, not having to deal with any of the domestic Israeli political Michigas.
• 58:18
  SPEAKER_06: He literally got the thing he wanted most in the world from a policy perspective.
• 58:22
  SPEAKER_06: Um and he gets to sell off into retirement and kind of now do things behind the scenes um to the extent that that he wants to do them.
• 58:30
  SPEAKER_06: So hard to think of somebody who had a better year than Ron Dermer.
• 58:34
  SPEAKER_05: Okay.
• 58:35
  SPEAKER_05: I like this uh equal opportunity bipartisan podcast that we're that we're running here.
• 58:40
  SPEAKER_05: Um Shera, who's your choice for the biggest winner of 2025?
• 58:46
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 58:48
  SPEAKER_01: I guess I have um I have two, I'll but I'll I'll make I'll make quick.
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_01: So I think one um because you mentioned the strike on Qatar, and that uh made me immediately think of Qatar.
• 59:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think Qatar started this year not great.
• 59:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um there was clear mounting uh uh you know loss of patience toward Qatar's position on Hamas.
• 59:13
  SPEAKER_01: It was very clear that they're not exerting the pressure that they should have had and the leverage they should have had on Hamas.
• 59:18
  SPEAKER_01: That was people started question questioning this idea of like, okay, you hosted uh Hamas uh leaders, supposedly because it was convenient for everyone, you had the leverage, but clearly by now you should have realized those are liability.
• 59:31
  SPEAKER_01: Why are you doing this and why are you not exerting the uh the pressure on them, undermining Egyptian efforts, right?
• 59:38
  SPEAKER_01: It was very clearly that uh Qatar was losing its uh position.
• 59:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure how it was felt in Washington, certainly uh in Israel and around the world.
• 59:47
  SPEAKER_01: And then uh Israel, in a very strange act of and a strange decision, decided to strike in Doha.
• 59:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm not putting the US, I'm putting the US aside on this, but uh the Israeli.
• 1:00:00
  SPEAKER_01: Decision making here, the calculus doing this, um was something that Qatar could have taken uh either way.
• 1:00:07
  SPEAKER_01: But Qatar is very good at like, you know, when guy uh life gives you lemon, you turn them into lemonade.
• 1:00:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I am talking about not uh uh um not they they definitely have not missed the opportunity to turn this uh this uh lemon into lemonade and uh turn this crisis into an opportunity.
• 1:00:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Qatar is the darling now of um different uh parties, they are the mediators between different conflicts, even countries that can't stand the Qataris and it includes their neighbors, everyone has to have to be nice to them.
• 1:00:43
  SPEAKER_01: Even if it's a piece of paper that's not worth much, they elevated their status in Washington, right?
• 1:00:48
  SPEAKER_01: In terms of um uh the alliance.
• 1:00:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um the Doha Forum in Doha, obviously, which took place on Saturday and Monday, it's Saturday through um Monday this week.
• 1:01:03
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're recording now on Tuesday, so it just ended yesterday, um was the biggest uh in many, many years with uh world leaders.
• 1:01:14
  SPEAKER_01: You had Don Jr.
• 1:01:15
  SPEAKER_01: on one stage and Hillary Clinton on another, and uh Sharon.
• 1:01:20
  SPEAKER_01: So kudos to them for uh leveraging what what should have been, you know, from from their perspective, they were attacked by a US um by a US ally.
• 1:01:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but and and and that's after they were attacked after by another US ally, right?
• 1:01:37
  SPEAKER_01: They were also attacked by uh not by the US, sorry, they were attacked by Iran, right?
• 1:01:43
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that Iran attacked a US base, but it's still on Qatari soil, and that's how the Qataris see it, whether it's coordinated or not coordinated by this.
• 1:01:51
  SPEAKER_01: And then they were attacked by Israel, and they were attacked by those countries this year, but they definitely um uh seized this opportunity to elevate their status, and kudos to them.
• 1:02:01
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, the other one is uh is uh Ashara, the president of Syria, formerly uh known as uh Jelani.
• 1:02:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it's been a year now since uh uh the Bashar al-Assad uh fell.
• 1:02:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh this one person that there's still a lot of suspicions on on what he believes in his heart and is he uh has he really changed?
• 1:02:23
  SPEAKER_01: Or you see the jihadi in a suit and tie.
• 1:02:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh there are a lot of concerns on regarding stability in Syria, especially parts outside of Damascus.
• 1:02:34
  SPEAKER_01: But uh but Syria is is in a different place.
• 1:02:36
  SPEAKER_01: You have Syrians for the first time going back to Syria.
• 1:02:39
  SPEAKER_01: I was just uh in a place it was very easy to recognize the Syrians in the audience.
• 1:02:43
  SPEAKER_01: They all have the same hairstyle and the same beard.
• 1:02:46
  SPEAKER_01: He's a model for admiration.
• 1:02:51
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, I think against against really all odds, I mean, the welcome he's had not just in Washington, uh the Saudi uh backing and the backing of many other countries around the world really cheering for his success, uh, basically unconditional removal of sanctions, things that have happened at the at a speed uh that I had not anticipated.
• 1:03:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and it's it's because of who he is.
• 1:03:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the jury is still out if this is gonna continue and uh if if we're uh gonna be uh fairly disappointed in years to come.
• 1:03:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but he's he's he's he's definitely um a winner of this year.
• 1:03:27
  SPEAKER_05: Both uh good choices, uh looking back at the past year.
• 1:03:31
  SPEAKER_05: My biggest winner of 2025, uh I have uh my my official answer, then my unofficial answer.
• 1:03:38
  SPEAKER_05: My official answer, I think, uh has to be the hostages that came out and their families.
• 1:03:44
  SPEAKER_05: A year ago, it wasn't a given at all.
• 1:03:47
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and the fact that it took you know months more for many of them um was very, very difficult.
• 1:03:53
  SPEAKER_05: But they all uh, like we were saying earlier, uh walked out of Gaza alive, uh which wasn't a given after two years of horrendous captivity.
• 1:04:03
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and the deceased hostages uh were brought back for for burial to their loved ones.
• 1:04:08
  SPEAKER_05: Um and it's you know, dozens of hostages, both alive and deceased, and by extension uh dozens of families and you know hundreds of family members and the entire country of Israel.
• 1:04:23
  SPEAKER_05: And the day uh of the of the release, right after the deal was uh was signed and the ceasefire came into effect in October um was the best day of the year.
• 1:04:37
  SPEAKER_05: By by far the best day of the year in Israel.
• 1:04:40
  SPEAKER_05: I mean, I was in Hostage Square, it was just uh like a weight had been lifted uh off of everyone.
• 1:04:48
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and then Donald Trump came and spoke at the Knesset, so everyone was happy about that.
• 1:04:52
  SPEAKER_05: But you know, uh really it was all about the hostages coming back.
• 1:04:57
  SPEAKER_05: And so uh I think they uh the fact that they were able to survive uh those two years uh and come back, and obviously there was a ceasefire uh in January, February as well, and we got uh many of the hostages back as well uh then uh was uh remarkable.
• 1:05:15
  SPEAKER_05: And uh, you know uh there's one hostage left in Gaza, Gangvili.
• 1:05:22
  SPEAKER_05: When he comes back, it's gonna be the first time in 11 years that there is no Israeli hostage being held by Hamas in Gaza dating back to 2014, the 2014 war.
• 1:05:35
  SPEAKER_05: Uh that in and of itself is is remarkable to my mind and and a massive win uh for Israel and you know, not not the government of Israel, not the state of Israel, but the people of Israel.
• 1:05:45
  SPEAKER_05: And and really the family is directly impacted.
• 1:05:47
  SPEAKER_05: So I think um uh that's an unadulterated uh good and a positive uh of the past year.
• 1:05:55
  SPEAKER_05: That's my official answer.
• 1:05:56
  SPEAKER_05: My unofficial answer, the biggest winner of 2025, Bibi Netanyahu.
• 1:06:01
  SPEAKER_05: Bibi Netanyahu.
• 1:06:03
  SPEAKER_05: Um if we just look at what he's been able to do over the past year, uh by the way, to give him credit, not only to get the hostages back, uh many of them still alive, yes, he may have been forced into the deal, fine, uh, but he was able to uh to get a ceasefire in January and then violate the ceasefire and relaunch the offensive like he was planning all along, and was able to get Trump to agree to that.
• 1:06:30
  SPEAKER_05: Uh it's a win for a win for him, uh probably terrible for everyone else, but a win for him, was able to not only launch the war on Iran, but also get US active support for the war, uh, literally his life's mission.
• 1:06:45
  SPEAKER_05: So I think if you ask Biben Netanyahu what was the the best year of your life, uh maybe he'd say 2025, maybe 1996 too, when he was first elected, probably.
• 1:06:59
  SPEAKER_06: Let's also not forget, let's not forget Neri.
• 1:07:01
  SPEAKER_06: He he spent more time this year in the United States than probably at any point since he lived here, and and we know how much he loves that as well.
• 1:07:08
  SPEAKER_05: That's that's exactly right.
• 1:07:09
  SPEAKER_05: And he's set to uh make his sixth visit to the U.S.
• 1:07:13
  SPEAKER_05: to meet with Donald Trump.
• 1:07:15
  SPEAKER_05: Um these uh visits and summits between an Israeli prime minister and a U.S.
• 1:07:20
  SPEAKER_05: president uh used to happen maybe like once a term, twice a term.
• 1:07:25
  SPEAKER_05: Now it's six times in in one year.
• 1:07:27
  SPEAKER_05: And again, you can say, well, it's Donald Trump and it's unorthodox, but Bi Benin now is still getting the invitations, no matter what happens later this month.
• 1:07:36
  SPEAKER_01: But there you need to remember that he can't go to 95% of other countries with which Israel has uh diplomatic ties.
• 1:07:43
  SPEAKER_04: Um, I didn't say everything everything was I didn't say everything was perfect.
• 1:07:49
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, I I I I agree, and this is gonna be the trips are long and and and this is this is uh I I sorry I didn't mean to interrupt.
• 1:07:57
  SPEAKER_01: The fact that he's still prime minister two years after and October 7 and he looks like a leading.
• 1:08:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, who knows what's gonna happen next.
• 1:08:03
  SPEAKER_06: Definitely a winner.
• 1:08:05
  SPEAKER_06: There's no he's he's spending eight days of his winter break in in Palm Beach at Mar-a-Lago.
• 1:08:10
  SPEAKER_06: I mean, I don't know.
• 1:08:10
  SPEAKER_06: Why are you being so funny?
• 1:08:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:08:15
  SPEAKER_05: You know, uh, as they say in Hebrew, to fog in.
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_05: You know, give give credit where credit is due.
• 1:08:21
  SPEAKER_05: He's getting away with the fact that he's able to go and spend eight days doing who knows what in Florida uh later this month.
• 1:08:28
  SPEAKER_05: But She Rai, you're absolutely right.
• 1:08:30
  SPEAKER_05: You know, two over two years after October 7th, he's still in power.
• 1:08:34
  SPEAKER_05: Not only that, he took a deal to quote unquote end the war.
• 1:08:38
  SPEAKER_05: He still has a coalition.
• 1:08:39
  SPEAKER_05: Itemar Benvir and Batelos Motrich didn't bolt like they had been promising for two years.
• 1:08:44
  SPEAKER_05: The ultra-orthodox left his coalition, people forget, and yet they're not actively trying to topple him.
• 1:08:51
  SPEAKER_05: And he still has a coalition, and we'll get into you know how long this weird situation may last in just a moment.
• 1:08:57
  SPEAKER_05: But you know, at this point, uh decision to go to election may still be in his hands.
• 1:09:04
  SPEAKER_05: Um, so I think, you know, uh unofficially, that my unofficial answer, the biggest winner of 2025, uh Bibi Netanyahu.
• 1:09:11
  SPEAKER_05: Uh yeah, it has it has to be that.
• 1:09:14
  SPEAKER_05: There's no dissent uh with my argument, is there?
• 1:09:17
  SPEAKER_05: No.
• 1:09:18
  SPEAKER_05: Not from me.
• 1:09:20
  SPEAKER_01: Not here either.
• 1:09:21
  SPEAKER_05: No, Shira Shira's shaking her head.
• 1:09:23
  SPEAKER_05: Okay.
• 1:09:24
  SPEAKER_05: Uh we're done looking back.
• 1:09:26
  SPEAKER_05: Let's get to what everyone is probably more interested in.
• 1:09:31
  SPEAKER_05: Uh what will definitely, certainly, uh assuredly happen in 2026.
• 1:09:36
  SPEAKER_05: Uh in the past, we've done these end-of-year awards and then the predictions.
• 1:09:41
  SPEAKER_05: And going into every year that we've done this, we've called it, you know, the coming year is going to be historic, momentous, critical for Israel.
• 1:09:49
  SPEAKER_05: Uh that's usually true because it because it's Israel and it's been you know it's been a pretty wild last few years.
• 1:09:56
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, but I dare say the coming year will be existential for Israel.
• 1:10:01
  SPEAKER_05: Uh that's the the description I uh uh uh go to and reach to um more often than not, uh, because it's gonna be an existential election year at some point in 2026.
• 1:10:14
  SPEAKER_05: Um so Israeli politics, but also all the other fronts that we've been talking about Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, the West Bank.
• 1:10:22
  SPEAKER_05: Um so dealer's choice.
• 1:10:25
  SPEAKER_05: Uh Shira, do you want to start us off?
• 1:10:28
  SPEAKER_05: A prediction for for 2026?
• 1:10:33
  SPEAKER_05: No, look, I I I I don't know if anybody can can say that.
• 1:10:37
  SPEAKER_05: You know, you can you can do whatever you want.
• 1:10:39
  SPEAKER_05: It's it's your podcast.
• 1:10:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um You know, it's interesting you said it's gonna be existential.
• 1:10:47
  SPEAKER_01: I was hoping you'd say something like this year might be just like a normal, boring year.
• 1:10:52
  SPEAKER_04: Um Do you but do you is that your prediction?
• 1:10:55
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 1:10:56
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm but that it's like my my hope, right?
• 1:10:59
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm I'm it's my I'm I'm conflating analysis with with what I wish for.
• 1:11:05
  SPEAKER_01: Just a little bit like peace and quiet, and the fact that and the other day I was I was thinking how nice it is um to go to sleep and not just like be anticipate to be awoken by missiles from different fronts and calculate if it's worth going to the shelter, because if it's from Yemen, maybe yeah.
• 1:11:24
  SPEAKER_01: But if it's from Lebanon, it's worth going.
• 1:11:26
  SPEAKER_01: So um I we'll see, we'll see how um how this year.
• 1:11:30
  SPEAKER_01: I guess um I want to be positive.
• 1:11:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think that uh this might be even happened before um the end of the year, but I think the fact that uh President Trump is seems uh adamant, and Jared Kushner, his uh son-in-law, who's leading this adamant about continuing to phase two of the peace plan for Gaza.
• 1:11:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think that's gonna happen.
• 1:11:54
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have some announcements uh by the end of this year.
• 1:11:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I think contrary to what Israel um would have liked, which is basically permanently dividing Gaza bifricating Gaza into two parts.
• 1:12:08
  SPEAKER_01: In one part, there are no people essentially behind IDF lines, and all the others on the other side in the hope that this will melt Hamas away, I think uh we're gonna see something where Israel would be um pushed uh to slowly uh withdraw.
• 1:12:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I think with that, and again, maybe I'm just wishing, I think there's gonna be realization that without some Palestinian agency, this plan could not uh work.
• 1:12:35
  SPEAKER_01: And therefore, what was been reported recently of senior US administration um you know officials meeting with uh Sena Sheikh uh in Ramallah, it's not it's not that anyone is gonna return the Palestinian Authority uh to Gaza, but but I think there's we're gonna see there's gonna be realization that if we don't want this to be like CPA in Iraq, where there's a small liaison office that connects the structure with the Iraqis and fail that you have to bring Palestinians in, and it can be just Abu Shabaab and clans.
• 1:13:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um so I think my prediction is that we're actually gonna see better implementation or some some more success successful implementation of the plan uh phase two than than what we would have expected and what Israel would have liked to see.
• 1:13:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um so that's what I'm expecting on Gaza.
• 1:13:25
  SPEAKER_05: Those are very positive predictions.
• 1:13:28
  SPEAKER_05: And basically, if I'm reading between the lines, you're saying Israel will will be forced to uh implement further withdrawals back from the yellow line, which divides Gaza currently in half, which would be a big both military and political issue here in Israel, uh, and that elements of the Palestinian Authority will be allowed to play some kind of role in the Gaza Strip, despite Netanyahu for two years saying no Hamas and no PA.
• 1:13:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I think I'll I'll just add to this, and this is what like the diplomacy part that is so missing.
• 1:14:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, Israel can reap a lot of diplomatic benefits for saying that they allow some gradual presence of the PA in Gaza or accepting that you know there's a Palestinian nationalism component to this and and and in the debate about reforms, which is not something that Israel has needs to bring voluntarily, right?
• 1:14:22
  SPEAKER_01: It is now grounded in uh Trump administration documents to say, okay, we agree with reforms, and these are the reforms we want and be part of the conversation.
• 1:14:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh instead, Israel is going to be uh uh dragged into this kicking and screaming and missing the opportunities for diplomatic leverage.
• 1:14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I'll just say we're recording now on Tuesday.
• 1:14:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um, for our listeners, the um uh crossing from uh Jordan, the Allen Bridge, has been closed for a good uh few weeks now as a result of a fatal terrorist attack that killed um two, two or three, two reserve reservists, um I think it was two reservists in the crossing.
• 1:15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Um and it's a second terrorist attack that's happening in the crossing, so really uh really terrible.
• 1:15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's there's important uh humanitarian aid in uh in uh winter, all the uh in sorry, in Jordan, all the winterization, and we're heading into a big storm in Israel.
• 1:15:18
  SPEAKER_01: All the tents are there, something that should have been in Gaza already, but also with implications to the West Bank.
• 1:15:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh there's been the decision and the uh the pressure on Ateao to reopen the crossing, it's it's been something I've been hearing about for at least a month.
• 1:15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I think as a result of um um Waltz uh uh uh um uh US ambassador to the UN, uh Waltz being hit now in Israel, Netanyahu today uh said, oh, Albi has to open today instead of doing it earlier, instead of doing it through a conversation with maybe King Hussein, instead of uh, you know, so this is this is this is sort of the typical way of of doing things here, which I I think you're right, um, that Israel will be forced to do something that if if if if if it planned ahead uh and thought about it, uh it would be much better if it also came with an Israeli initiative.
• 1:16:11
  SPEAKER_05: Okay.
• 1:16:12
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I like those predictions.
• 1:16:14
  SPEAKER_05: Michael, Europe?
• 1:16:16
  SPEAKER_06: I'll I'll quickly tack on to Shira, not with my real one, but with my my honorable mention that uh I I I agree.
• 1:16:23
  SPEAKER_06: I also uh have an optimistic take on Gaza for 2026.
• 1:16:26
  SPEAKER_06: I think that we're likely gonna see the beginning of Hamas disarmament.
• 1:16:30
  SPEAKER_06: Obviously, not full, not to the extent that Israel wants, but I think that over the next year we're gonna see Hamas start to give up some of its heavy weapons, and that's gonna be part of part of the progress that She was talking about uh in terms of moving to phase two.
• 1:16:44
  SPEAKER_06: But for my for my real prediction, I'll uh I'll I'll go in a different uh a different direction, which is Israeli politics.
• 1:16:50
  SPEAKER_06: And I'll call back to something we were talking about earlier uh with Benny Gans.
• 1:16:55
  SPEAKER_06: My prediction is that Natali Bennett is not going to be the largest vote getter among opposition parties when the elections happen.
• 1:17:03
  SPEAKER_06: At the at the narrow, you look you look very you look very confused by that prediction.
• 1:17:07
  SPEAKER_06: I like this.
• 1:17:08
  SPEAKER_06: Who will be the largest vote getter?
• 1:17:10
  SPEAKER_06: I don't know who it's going to be, but you know, at the moment, Naftali Bennett is polling at like 21, 22 seats.
• 1:17:16
  SPEAKER_06: And you know, after that, the you've got uh uh Vigor Lieberman at like nine or ten and Yeshotid at nine or ten and Ghadi Yasinkut at nine or ten, Gayor Golan at nine or ten.
• 1:17:27
  SPEAKER_06: Naftali Bennett, you know, he he entered politics very successfully.
• 1:17:32
  SPEAKER_06: He was he he formed that alliance with Lapid in the 2013 through 15 Netanyahu government.
• 1:17:37
  SPEAKER_06: And ever since then, he has not been great at politics, to put it mildly.
• 1:17:42
  SPEAKER_06: Um true.
• 1:17:43
  SPEAKER_06: Uh, you know, we'll we we'll we'll remember before the first election of the of the five election cycle in 2019, when he and Ayala Chuckhead were kind of like the big the big thing.
• 1:17:55
  SPEAKER_06: She and I were sitting, she and I were sitting in a in a in a bar in the shook.
• 1:17:59
  SPEAKER_06: Uh the Thursday night before the election, Ayala Chuckhead walked in.
• 1:18:02
  SPEAKER_06: I got a selfie with her um back in uh what was it April, April 2019?
• 1:18:06
  SPEAKER_06: And you know, in that election, so do I.
• 1:18:10
  SPEAKER_06: Um in actually quickly, quickly, funny story.
• 1:18:13
  SPEAKER_06: I took I took that selfie, and then later that night, somebody on Twitter DM'd me and said, Hey, are you in Israel?
• 1:18:19
  SPEAKER_06: And I said, Yeah, how do you know?
• 1:18:21
  SPEAKER_06: Somebody else had taken a picture of me taking the selfie with Ayala Chuckhead and had posted it on Twitter, and then somebody else spotted me in that picture.
• 1:18:28
  SPEAKER_06: Anyways, um, you know, in that in that election, they they missed the threshold.
• 1:18:34
  SPEAKER_06: They were they were completely out of the cassette.
• 1:18:36
  SPEAKER_06: Uh and you know, Naftali Bennett uh obviously, you know, became prime minister in uh in the change government, but he was the smallest party in that co in that coalition.
• 1:18:47
  SPEAKER_06: The coalition fell apart because he could not keep his people in line.
• 1:18:51
  SPEAKER_06: The the reason that that government fell was because two people defected from his party, Amichai Shikli and then Edith Silman.
• 1:18:58
  SPEAKER_06: He couldn't keep his own people in line.
• 1:18:59
  SPEAKER_06: And he then left politics.
• 1:19:01
  SPEAKER_06: And then as a result, when October 7th happened, and I think Israelis were desperately in need of a strong opposition voice.
• 1:19:09
  SPEAKER_06: You know, now Tali Bennett could chime in from the sidelines, but he hasn't actually been in the opposition.
• 1:19:13
  SPEAKER_06: He's not, he's not in the Knesset.
• 1:19:15
  SPEAKER_06: He's not actually in politics.
• 1:19:17
  SPEAKER_06: So, you know, he he's he's been successful in many ways.
• 1:19:21
  SPEAKER_06: He's been prime minister, he's been defense minister, but I don't think he has the greatest political instincts.
• 1:19:26
  SPEAKER_06: And in this case, he, you know, he you have all of these center and left of center votes who, to use the the the Israeli term, uh are parking their votes with Natali Bennett.
• 1:19:37
  SPEAKER_06: He's he's a parking lot.
• 1:19:38
  SPEAKER_06: And that's what we saw in the past from Benny Gantz multiple times.
• 1:19:42
  SPEAKER_06: And, you know, as as you pointed out, uh a year ago Benny Gantz was riding high at 19 or 20 seats and polls, and now he's above the threshold.
• 1:19:49
  SPEAKER_06: I don't think Natali Bennett's gonna drop below the threshold, but uh I do think that we're likely, as the elections come closer, to see Israeli voters looking for all for an alternative go to somebody else.
• 1:20:00
  SPEAKER_06: And I think now Tali Bennett will do fine, but my prediction is that he is not going to get 22 seats and that he is not going to be the largest vote getter among current opposition parties.
• 1:20:11
  SPEAKER_05: Very interesting prediction.
• 1:20:13
  SPEAKER_05: I would tend to agree with you on the fact that he's not a very good politician and that he usually starts very strong on the polls and then plummets with two caveats.
• 1:20:23
  SPEAKER_05: Number one, uh, who else is out there?
• 1:20:26
  SPEAKER_05: So the answer you often hear from, let's say, non-BBist Israelis is, you know, I don't know who I'm voting for, right?
• 1:20:34
  SPEAKER_05: So the undecided is probably the highest opposition party.
• 1:20:37
  SPEAKER_05: Just I don't I don't know who I'm voting for.
• 1:20:39
  SPEAKER_05: I'm not happy with any of my options.
• 1:20:42
  SPEAKER_05: So who else is out there that will be able to take those votes uh away from parking lot Bennett?
• 1:20:49
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and my second caveat is uh I think it'll all depend on where Gady Eisencott chooses to go.
• 1:20:55
  SPEAKER_05: Uh if Isencot if Eisencott uh joins up with Naftali Bennett, I think that'll uh bolster him and boost him.
• 1:21:04
  SPEAKER_05: Uh and if Gady Isencott chooses uh hopefully to go with Yari Lapide, uh I think that'll be a big boon to Yari Lapide.
• 1:21:12
  SPEAKER_05: Um I think one constellation I think may be easier to pull off than the other.
• 1:21:16
  SPEAKER_05: And I'll leave uh our listeners and viewers to uh to ponder which one, which one is which.
• 1:21:23
  SPEAKER_05: Um my prediction for 2026, and it's a near-term prediction, and it's the question on everyone's mind really is when are the elections gonna happen?
• 1:21:35
  SPEAKER_05: Now, by law it has to happen until October 2026.
• 1:21:38
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, and you hear kind of the uh the pros here say, well, it'll either happen in September or maybe like June, July-ish.
• 1:21:47
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I have a different prediction.
• 1:21:50
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I think uh elections are gonna be triggered in January and they're gonna happen in basically May.
• 1:21:58
  SPEAKER_05: Well, April is Passover.
• 1:22:01
  SPEAKER_05: Well, the interest, yeah, the interesting thing about the calendar this year, Passover is very early, and you have Passover Pesach in early April, but followed very closely by uh Independence Day, Memorial Day, and all of that.
• 1:22:14
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I think even I think it's still in April.
• 1:22:17
  SPEAKER_05: Uh so my prediction is that elections are triggered in January because of the holiday, they'll happen in May.
• 1:22:24
  SPEAKER_05: And this is uh a bit earlier than people imagine.
• 1:22:28
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, but there are reasons for this prediction.
• 1:22:30
  SPEAKER_05: Uh number one, I think all roads lead to January.
• 1:22:34
  SPEAKER_05: So if you look at issues like passing a budget, right, uh, or the ultra-orthodox conscription issue, um, or even Netanyahu's uh ridiculous request for a pardon that's not really a pardon.
• 1:22:48
  SPEAKER_05: Um, and even by the way, his meeting with Trump and maybe movement on phase two of Gaza, all of it is supposed to happen in, as they say here, the coming weeks, right?
• 1:22:59
  SPEAKER_05: They want to pass the Haredi bill in the coming weeks, right?
• 1:23:02
  SPEAKER_05: It's being debated right now in Knesset.
• 1:23:04
  SPEAKER_05: Uh the government just approved the budget, but it's meaningless because they have to pass it in Knesset, but they want to kind of do it quickly before the end of March deadline uh to pass a budget that already takes you into January.
• 1:23:16
  SPEAKER_05: Um Bougie Herzog, uh, as Michael uh alluded to earlier, uh, said he has he'll make a decision on this very serious and grave matter that he takes very, very seriously uh and will make a serious decision on uh in the coming weeks.
• 1:23:33
  SPEAKER_05: Right?
• 1:23:34
  SPEAKER_05: So all of it uh leads me to conclude that come come January, uh either because the Ultra Orthodox will lose patience and this bill in Knesset about the Haredis is going nowhere, um, they'll either pull the plug or Netanyahu himself will realize, yeah, I I can't pass the Haredi conscription bill, i.e., I don't have a budget that I can pass in the Knesset, i.e., uh this coalition isn't long for the world because March, the March, end of March deadline to pass a budget is looming anyway.
• 1:24:04
  SPEAKER_05: So I'm going to pull the trigger on an election.
• 1:24:08
  SPEAKER_05: And uh as you both know, uh Israeli Prime Ministers love nothing more than to get up there on Independence Day and give a big speech and act the Prime Minister, um, because that bolsters them in the public eye.
• 1:24:22
  SPEAKER_05: So that is my narry.
• 1:24:23
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 1:24:24
  SPEAKER_01: Your prediction is on the day that I and I I I do agree with your analysis, but I mean, can you give a prediction of your uh what's gonna happen?
• 1:24:32
  SPEAKER_01: Who's gonna yeah, what's gonna happen in the election?
• 1:24:35
  SPEAKER_01: Is what is Bougie gonna do with this decision about a pardon, which is actually a decision to cancel the trial, right?
• 1:24:41
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, so so basically I thought you were gonna talk about the next round of Israel and Iran, but sorry.
• 1:24:47
  SPEAKER_05: Um No no first, okay, uh I will answer one one.
• 1:24:51
  SPEAKER_05: Uh I love how Shira, she's like, okay, she's calling me out on my uh on my rhetoric.
• 1:24:58
  SPEAKER_05: Okay, uh look, I I'm a daily newspaper reporter.
• 1:25:01
  SPEAKER_05: Ideal, my horizon is like maybe my next deadline.
• 1:25:04
  SPEAKER_05: Uh but but be that as it may, I will answer, I will, I will, I will answer your questions one by one.
• 1:25:10
  SPEAKER_05: First of all, uh Bouja Herzog, right?
• 1:25:12
  SPEAKER_05: The the issue with the pardon, right?
• 1:25:14
  SPEAKER_05: Netanyahu is not willing to leave public office.
• 1:25:19
  SPEAKER_05: He's not willing to retire.
• 1:25:20
  SPEAKER_05: That is essentially gonna be the core demand.
• 1:25:22
  SPEAKER_05: There are other demands that are kind of floating around it, but the core demand is okay, is he are you willing to actually leave office?
• 1:25:28
  SPEAKER_05: This notion that you hear floated that he's gonna he's gonna retire, you know, he's gonna resign temporarily and then come back for the next election doesn't fly because, as we all know, if the election is deadlocked, you need to be prime minister to continue at the head of a transition government.
• 1:25:42
  SPEAKER_05: So there is zero chance he either resigns temporarily or definitely zero chance, less than zero chance, he retires completely.
• 1:25:50
  SPEAKER_05: All right, so let's get that off the board.
• 1:25:52
  SPEAKER_05: That is the that is the major stumbling block for Bougie to pardon him.
• 1:25:56
  SPEAKER_05: And yet, Bougie can get up there and say, as part of the wider package, all kinds of other things that the anti-Netanyahu liberal camp in Israel want.
• 1:26:06
  SPEAKER_05: Bougie will say, look, it's not for me to decide whether Netanyahu can continue as prime minister.
• 1:26:11
  SPEAKER_05: It's not for the judges sitting at the Supreme Court in Jerusalem to decide whether Bibi Netanyahu can continue as prime minister.
• 1:26:19
  SPEAKER_05: We're going to allow the Israeli public to decide if Bibi Netanyahu can continue as prime minister.
• 1:26:27
  SPEAKER_05: And as part of the deal, Netanyahu has to disperse Knesset and go to an election.
• 1:26:31
  SPEAKER_05: And this will be a referendum on whether Netanyahu is uh fit, appropriate, whatever you want to say to lead Israel.
• 1:26:40
  SPEAKER_05: Okay.
• 1:26:40
  SPEAKER_05: That's the pardon issue, and that's um I think how Bougie may try to find his way out of uh the very difficult position Netanyahu has put him in.
• 1:26:49
  SPEAKER_05: Right.
• 1:26:50
  SPEAKER_05: Uh your second question.
• 1:26:53
  SPEAKER_05: Oh, uh war with Iran, it's not happening until after the Israeli election, if at all.
• 1:26:57
  SPEAKER_05: Right.
• 1:26:58
  SPEAKER_05: Um Netanyahu can't go.
• 1:27:00
  SPEAKER_05: I'm speaking just in domestic Israeli political terms.
• 1:27:02
  SPEAKER_05: Netanyahu can't turn around to the Israeli public next week and say, hey, by the way, I'm bombing Iran again because we didn't finish the job in this historic uh existential fight that happened six months ago in June.
• 1:27:16
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, and I, you know, basically lied to you.
• 1:27:19
  SPEAKER_05: And by the way, you all have to go back into the bomb shelters again.
• 1:27:22
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, no, it doesn't fit his message, the war of uh resurrection, as he likes to call it, the war of redemption, as he likes to call it.
• 1:27:31
  SPEAKER_05: No, he he will go into an election campaign as the great winner, uh, the great victor of um, well, he doesn't call it the war of October 7th, he calls it the war of not October 7th, October 7th with the generals and the IDF.
• 1:27:46
  SPEAKER_05: Everything that happened after October 7th is, you know, BB Netanyahu.
• 1:27:49
  SPEAKER_05: That's a message he's gonna take to the public.
• 1:27:51
  SPEAKER_05: So there's zero chance, um, unless Iran does something frankly stupid, uh, that Israel will trigger another war with Iran.
• 1:27:58
  SPEAKER_05: Um, and then finally you say who's gonna win?
• 1:28:02
  SPEAKER_05: Is that what was your what was your idea?
• 1:28:06
  SPEAKER_06: The real question is is Netanyahu still gonna be prime minister?
• 1:28:10
  SPEAKER_06: I think all three of us in the last two years have you know declared the the death of Netanyahu's political career, and he's clearly proven us all wrong.
• 1:28:18
  SPEAKER_06: So is he is he still gonna be prime minister?
• 1:28:21
  SPEAKER_06: Was that is that like the the the final question, the the real prediction?
• 1:28:25
  SPEAKER_06: Yes, look, I don't think I'm I'm I'm taking over Israel policy pod.
• 1:28:28
  SPEAKER_05: I'm now asking you, Nary.
• 1:28:30
  SPEAKER_05: Look, I don't think the honest answer nobody knows.
• 1:28:32
  SPEAKER_05: Uh there are a lot of moving parts, there are going to be new players that come in, different mergers um and acquisitions on the political stage.
• 1:28:41
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, I don't think anybody can, either on a podcast or otherwise, can give you a straight answer.
• 1:28:47
  SPEAKER_05: You know, uh to borrow uh a phrase from Shera, I want to remain optimistic and hopeful.
• 1:28:53
  SPEAKER_05: So I believe that not even Bibi Netanyahu and his remarkable political skills uh will be able to overcome the stain of October 7th and the massive damage that this government has caused, frankly, even before October 7th, and that if the opposition can get its act together and it stucks in a row, that it can somehow pull off um pull off uh a change in government.
• 1:29:21
  SPEAKER_05: Um by the way, barring that, my other prediction is that uh Bibi Netanyahu will remain prime minister because there are going to be elements in the current opposition camp that will cross the lines and say, in the interest of national unity, after two years of war, etc.
• 1:29:38
  SPEAKER_05: etc., um, we are going to join Netanyahu in coalition and save Netanyahu from the extremists on the right and the ultra-withelox, um, etc.
• 1:29:49
  SPEAKER_05: etc.
• 1:29:49
  SPEAKER_05: But again, um, we can we can record a podcast uh before the next election where we can actually give our informed predictions.
• 1:29:57
  SPEAKER_05: But uh for now I'm just sticking to a May election that'll have to do.
• 1:30:03
  SPEAKER_06: I think that last that last uh unofficial prediction or non-prediction is is a strong one.
• 1:30:09
  SPEAKER_05: Yeah, that's not my official prediction.
• 1:30:11
  SPEAKER_05: We went way over, but this was a massive end-of-year podcast.
• 1:30:15
  SPEAKER_05: Uh Shira Michael, any you have to you have to go make dinner?
• 1:30:19
  SPEAKER_05: I think those are appropriate uh parting words because uh well, life continues.
• 1:30:24
  SPEAKER_01: My prediction my prediction for the year for it for next year is that I'll still be making dinners.
• 1:30:30
  SPEAKER_01: Not the dinner, but still have to feed children.
• 1:30:34
  SPEAKER_06: You would be both.
• 1:30:36
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you both for your time.
• 1:30:37
  SPEAKER_02: I'm 100% sure you're a better cook.
• 1:30:40
  SPEAKER_05: Is that uh is that the next award for next year, the the best cook of the podcast?
• 1:30:46
  SPEAKER_05: The best cook of the year?
• 1:30:47
  SPEAKER_05: Sure.
• 1:30:47
  SPEAKER_05: Let's let's do it.
• 1:30:49
  SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
• 1:30:49
  SPEAKER_05: Uhsameach upcoming, happy holidays.
• 1:30:53
  SPEAKER_05: Uh, enjoy the new year, and uh, I'll see you on the other side.
• 1:30:57
  SPEAKER_05: Thank you both, as always.
• 1:30:58
  SPEAKER_05: Take care.
• 1:30:58
  SPEAKER_05: Thank you.
• 1:30:59
  SPEAKER_05: Bye guys.
• 1:31:00
  SPEAKER_05: Okay, thanks again to Michael Koplow and Shira Efron, as always, for their generous time and insights.
• 1:31:06
  SPEAKER_05: Also, a special thanks to our producer, Jacob Gilman, our editor, Tracy Levy, and our assistant producer Edin Jesselson, as always, and to all of you who support Israel Policy Forum's work.
• 1:31:17
  SPEAKER_05: Do consider making a donation to Israel Policy Forum so you can keep being a credible source of analysis and ideas on issues such as these that we all care deeply about, including this podcast.
• 1:31:28
  SPEAKER_05: And most importantly, thank you all for listening and a happy holidays and chaksameh upcoming to all those celebrating.