Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 1 Lines + NFL Spring Meeting

Transcript

NFL Week 1 Lines + NFL Spring Meeting · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. The podcast part of the Action
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by BET three sixty five. We
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: are in fact live on AMP. We are live on YouTube.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: NFL Owners meetings starting this week. What better way to
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: celebrate the NFL being in the news and talking about
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: NFL betting in week one? Because lines are up at
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: our partner Bet three six ' five. I am joined
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my bff, my companion,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Michael Padre, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Hello Chad. Feels so good, so good to finally be
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: talking some week one lines.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Doesn't it?
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: It really does.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: It was so exciting to see him and I want
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to I want to dig into it in a second,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: but remember the podcasts is. The podcast is proudly presented
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: by BET three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code Action to get BET three
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: six y five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: on any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one or older. Offer available in Colorado,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. Gambling problem call or text
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler. Also, as I do in every episode,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: you guys have heard us talk about game Time. They're
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States. I
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: love game Time, honestly, I use it all the time.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And if you're looking to get out to a proer
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: college game this week, or even a concert, game Time
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: has amazing last minute deals on tickets to all of these.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I'm opening the game Time app right now from my
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: house here in Connecticut. By the way, I'm equal distant
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: from New York and Boston. I would say, let's open
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the app and see if we can get tickets for
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a Celtics game, but who knows that we'll get back
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: to Boston, So instead I'm looking at New York. It's
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: a beautiful week in the city. The New York Yankees
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: are streaking. You can get into a Yankees game seventeen bucks.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: By the way, Brianna Stewart forty five point masterpiece in
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: three quarters the other night, New York Liberty super Team.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: You can get in Saturday thirty three bucks. Also reminder,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: don't forget Bet three six five US Darts Championship coming
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: up at MSG in a couple of weeks. You know
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: you're gonna want to get tickets for that. We love
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: the dars. No matter where you live, download the games
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Time app, get out and have some fun this week.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: You deserve it, and you can redeem code favorites for
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: download the app and inner code favorites for twenty dollars off.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So download Game Time today. Last minute tickets lows. Brice guaranteed.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not kidding about the darts signmon.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: I was about to cut you off chat. I was
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: gonna tell people, if you've never experienced it, get out there.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: All you gotta do is find a crazy outfit. Get
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: ready to get blacked out, drunk the time of your life.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: It is a really really good special experience dart. It's
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: just very unique how you experience it.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: It is fucking legit. It is legit is a sporting event,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It is legit exciting, and you know your favorite person,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Michael Leeboff is the Action Network Dart correspondent. Going back
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: to our earliest days, this is how I knew Action
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Network would succeed one way or the other. It just
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: was a matter of time and why Action Network could
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: potentially outperform other places. The level of the love for
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: betting was so intense. I told the story last week
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: about how when we first launched, someone started sticking their
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: fingers in the Google sheet that controlled the w NBA
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: models and people were losing their mind. Same thing with darts.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: People were going crazy when we first launched in the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: office for darts, watching darts, betting on darts, analyzing darts.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Le Boss gonna go to MSG. He's gonna cover darts.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: We'll probably have to have them come on and talk
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: about doing darts preview.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Speaking of MSG, did you see you retired today? Ched?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Carmelo Anthony retired.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: What's your opinion on Kamello Anthony?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Uh? I always thought he was like a George Gervin
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: esque player to me, great score. I liked him more
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: as he got older, and I liked him more as
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: an Olympian that I did when he was on the Nuggets,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: and definitely on the next look he's He's a wonderful
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: player and a brilliant score. He didn't really get ever,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: gets surrounded with the right talent in New York, and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I think New York is an impossible place to play.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: In the end, I was a fan, but I didn't
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: love him a lot during his career.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just like Cues Mellow. That was my Mellow.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: That whole run with him in March Madness, that was
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: so amazing. But my favorite Mellow joke will always be
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: if NBA was just a game of horse Melow would
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: be the greatest player ever. Other than that, there's not
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: much to his game. So I think it's he's up
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: there for most overrated players. Someone that has one of
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: the most overrated players ever, Joel Embiid on their team.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Him and mellore in that same class of all the
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: talent in the world. Game make it out of the
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: second round. So that's my view on Mellow. It's like, yeah,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: you can give him the benefit of doubt, like you
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: didn't have guys around him. I mean they were all
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: one seed that one year. Remember that the Knicks were
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: a legit a one seed and they didn't do anything
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: with it. So I didn't know Mello was still in
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: the league. I thought he had already retired.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: So I don't think he was playing this year. I
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: think he sat out the whole year, but he hadn't
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: officially retired.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Wow, Because as I say, that's that's been what twenty years.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: I think he was drafted oh three, so nineteen years. Yeah,
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: pretty impressive longevity of his career. But I think I
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: want to saw him play a cues. You thought he
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: was gonna be the next coming, like you really, I
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: really thought he was going to be huge in the NBA,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: and just it was all personality, not much, not much
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: there to the game.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, it's been amazing to watch the Celtics and the
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Heat before we get into the NFL. I know, we
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: want to talk NFL, but this Celtics team breaking down
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: and this Heat team owning them in such an embarrassing way.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: It's it's it's the epitome of a basketball team versus
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: a collection of great basketball players. And we talked about
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: this in the podcast last week. We had Matt Moro
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: on and we had Marie Marino on, and we were
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: talking about the Heat as a team, and Matt Moore
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: very specifically said, the difference with these teams is the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: biggest coaching difference there is, and that that is a
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: delta that can make up points in a point spread
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: but also in the game itself. And Spoe has just
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: been dominant. It's been clinic.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, legendary Evan. Evan Abrams keeps putting out the stats.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: It's like, suppose like one thousand dollars ahead of the
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: next closest coach as an underdog being bet on, like
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs, he's just every year again, every year,
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: they're just a team that's doubted. And like you just
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: talked about the coaching so important in basketball, there's a
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: even you know, you can say Phil Jackson had the
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: best players. The man was clearly an incredible coach. He
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: got the best out of every team he touched. And
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: you can see the same about Steve Kerr. The championships
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Golden State had, they didn't get those right until Steve
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: Kerr stepped in. So coaching we always talked about it
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: goes a long way in a lot of sports. It
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: might be no bigger than an NBA.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: It's been. It's been glorious to watch him a little.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I think the Heat Nuggets Finals is going to be
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: some very intense, really high quality basketball. I'd probably bet
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the Heat to win because their defense is so good,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: and I think there's a little bit of a coaching advantage,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: not as much such as the Celtics and the Heat,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: but they're gonna be underdogs, and I think there's gonna
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: be huge value on the Heat. They're just not going
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: to get the respect from the public that they should.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: And it feels like the like the Rams and the
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl, where no matter what, it would
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: have been really cool for Joe Burrow since he got
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: a ring or Matthew Stafford in the Rams get a ring.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Feels the same way here Joker or Jimmy Butler, either
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: of them, they're probably gonna be Hall of Famers that
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: both of them deserve right to be in this kind
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: of conversation of you can't give them the Charles Barkley treatment.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Both of them got there. So if Jimmy gets his ring,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: if the Joker gets his ring, I'm just really happy,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: Like I love both those guys so much, especially for
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: the NBA.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Isn't it funny the way I want both of those
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: teams to win the finals because of those two things.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I want Jokich to get a ring. I want Jimmy
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Butler to get a ring. Yokich is in the Hall
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: of Fame regardless, He's got the two MVPs, his game,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: all around game, he's so dominant Jimmy Butler last night,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: so I got We have friends staying with us for
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a few days, huge NBA fan, the guy the buddy
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: who's staying with us in the sports business and sports
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: media business, and me and him and my younger son
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: were watching the game last night and we said the question,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, is he a Hall of Famer? And I've
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: been on the fence. I think if he gets this
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: team the finals, he's there. My buddy pointed out, Jimmy
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Butler's been All NBA five times in his career, and
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: the threshold for getting into the NBA Hall of Fame
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: is actually just lower than it is other hall of fames,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: so or it would it be Halls of Fame. It's interesting,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: But so I think Jimmy Butler gets in regardless. Yeah,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I like him. Can I tell you one more gambling story.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: We gotta get to this football, Chad, h.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I gotta tell you one thing. I'm sure Matt Mitchell
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: is freaking out, like just talk about the football already,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: but I gotta tell you one thing. I gotta tell
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: you one thing. He says, it's Halls of Fame like
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: attorneys general. So I'm in this golf major pool. Okay,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And I've been doing it with a couple of other
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: guys at Action since Action started, like going back to
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. I don't play golf. Golf is one of
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the sports I bet the least, so I know nothing
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: about it. So every major we will do a snake draft,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and uh and for the maj just for the majors,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: we'll do a snake draft. I've won four of the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: past six. I won Masters PGA last year. I won
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Master's PGA this year.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Now you betting these are you just? You're just doing
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: this contest?
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Just doing it in the contest, damn it. Yeah, I know.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I know it's such a bummer because I'd have so
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: much more money, But I just like it that these
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: guys all they do is play golf. All lady was
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: bet golf, and I am fucking crushing.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: Well people, guys are following the Action writers. Man, I
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: thot that was this guy's name is? I think his
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: first name was Matte of our writers has been an
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: absolute heater. Yes that's his last name. Say it again,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: fucking insane. What's his name was? Say one more time?
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Vincenzi.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: He is money. People so action writer, hop on, you
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: gotta follow this kid. He's just been on absolute terror
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: picking these golf winners. You know, to me, golf is
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: really hard to pick. But guys can get rhythms, and
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: they can get hot, and they can stay hot for
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: a year or two. So he's definitely these guys. You
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: want to ride his coattails right now?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: All right, So onto the NFL simon. Thank god owners
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: will not be voting to approve the sale for the
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Washington Commanders, but holy fuck, can I I just cannot
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: wait for this guy to be out of the league.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Why I feel like, I'll just say, from my perspective,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: I love it because I'm an Eagles fan.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're yeah.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: They've been a absolute train wreck the whole time he's
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: on them. So he never leaves. I hope this thing
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: falls apart they keep them there. I mean, holy shit, people,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: you'll look at their last drafts. They took Chase Young
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: over Justin Herbert and Tua. This is just Washington football
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: team is one of the worst organizations ever ran Chase Young.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: If you didn't know, people didn't sign, didn't get resigned to.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: His fifth year is tinction. So again, they've passed on
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Tua and Herbert to take Chase Young. They're just an
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: awfully run organization every way.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: But even if they had drafted either of those guys,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: do you think they would have used them properly?
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: No, I do, dude. Their team is good, Like they
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: legit have talent, like Terry McLaurin is a really good receiver.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: They have good running backs. Their old line is probably
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: a little weak, but again, if you have a good quarterback,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: then the gates that like they have the talent on offense,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: and their defense has had talent for these past couple
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: of seasons. I mean, I know last year was a
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: down year for them, but the year before me and
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: chat talked about going to the season, they were a
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: top five, top four defense every metric. So to me,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, Like their their front office is total shit.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: I think Ron Rivera and like a couple of that
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: guys they've hired have been all right. So you know,
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: it's just interesting to see if this deal doesn't go through,
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: what they're going to be like check because like you
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: were about to talk about, they've just been horrible. This
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: is he's arguably the worst owner ever, maybe the Nick's
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: owner I don't know, but they're both in a different
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: level together. But some owners are just terrible and he
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: was one of them.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: So the other news today that came out, which was
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: this is what a slow news day it is, is
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: that this is in the headline stack everywhere. Ben Roethlisberger
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: on his own podcast admitting to Kenny Pickett that he
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: didn't root for Kenny Pickett to succeed, which to me,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: it feels like Ben is a narciss Well, yeah, exactly, Yeah,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: And I think he's always been that way. Yeah, and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: he's I think he's gotten so much slacked from the
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: media over the years because he plays hurt and he's tough. Then,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: you know, he had been around for so long and
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: he had won Super Bowls and became the face of
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: a franchise. But he's always seemed like a dick, except
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: now he's trying to figure out, all right, maybe if
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I'm a dick on my own podcast, it'll make some
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: news and get people to listen.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: I was just saying, my biggest thing I saw from
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: this UH owners meeting was the rock perty rule. Did
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: you see they added that they.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Added a third emergency quarterback.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: I think it's a big deal, honestly, because now there's
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: no excuse truly, Like if a team takes out three
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the game, that's got to be on the coach.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: That can't be saying, oh, that's unfair if we had
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: another quarterback again, the forty nine ers blocked Reddick, our
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: best past ruther with a tight end. That's why Rock
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: Perdy's arm got snapped in half. You blocked arguably the
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: best pass rusher in football with they tight end. What
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: do you expect to happen?
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: I want to go to the Week one lines and
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I want to speak specifically. I got a couple of
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: games that I'm interested in, and I think we want
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to see if we can get some moneyline parlays going,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: like we do you get them going here in May.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I want to get him going to make because I'm
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: gonna I want bet three six five our sponsors to
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: give a little bit of a boost to be so.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: And we had a nice little run with the underdog
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: moneyline parlays during the season, the Round Robins.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: It was a nice, nice start. It was tough finish,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: but I would say last year was kind of a
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: wonky year. Usually you get better luck later in the
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: season on these money lines. So last year the dogs
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: were good to us, right, we were winning on the spread,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: just the out rights were tough the second half of
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: the season.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I like looking at Week one lines because you immediately
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: get a sense of how the bookmakers think the public
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: thinks about these teams.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: So, and what do we always say, Chad, The public
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: is very dumb.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Very dumb. So it's just the first I'm looking at
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: bout three sixty five before we came on the air,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and the very first, very first game that stuck out
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: to me. You're gonna hate me for this, you ready, Yeah,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts Week one, three and a half point underdogs
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: at home against the Houston or the Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: The only pushback on is you have a rookie QB
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: with a rookie head coach making both of their first
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: starts in the NFL. So I would say if we
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: had a Lovey Smith type, if I had a veteran
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: head coach with a rookie quarterback, I might shift it
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: a little. But the fact that it's the deadly combo
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: of rookie head coach and a rookie QB, which give
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: me nice right, because no one knows what's coming. But
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: it's also like shit, So that's one of those where
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: I might wait on that one. I can't see dipping
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: blow three and a half. I think most pros view
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: are like me. They beat the Jaguars at the powerhouse
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: in that division, So I love your heads at Chad
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Like to me, I'm all in on Anthony Richardson. He's
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: my I already talked about. I bet him for Rookie
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: of the Year every week. I mean, this is the
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: kind of year all you're gonna I mean kind of
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: part of the year where all you hear is positive stories, right,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: so all we're gonna hear is all the smoke being
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: blown up Anthony Richardson's ass. But I love this kid.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I told you watching his pocket presence in college. He's smart.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: He has a smart football mind, and he's one of
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: the most gifted athletes. So again, if they're coaching staff,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: we get into spring, you know, when they play a
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: couple of preseason games, I can see this kid and
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: get see what he can do. My opinion might change,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: But as we sit here in May, I probably wouldn't
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: touch this one just yet, just because it's a rookie
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: QB and a rookie head coach.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: That's when I think you do bet him, because they're
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: they're all sunshine and happy and like they haven't been
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: destroyed yet, so they don't know the full hammer of
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: the NFL. They're in their first game, they still love
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: each other. It's all optimism. They've been practiced against their
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: own team, They've had some easy preseason games. This is
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: when they might be their most confident. So the only
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: reason I would wait is if I felt like this
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: number was going to go up, because everyone's going to
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: pile in on the Jacks.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: But again, my only fear is you hear from different people,
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: like half these guys have their first starts, head coach
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: or quarterback. They don't remember a single thing from the
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: game because it was just so intense. You're just so overwhelmed.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: You're just it's literally your whole life is led up
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: to this moment kind of thing. So that's that's again
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: that's my fear. I'm putting the human aspect in it.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: But I make, like Chad's about to say, I make
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: those line three. The value right now is on the Colts.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: So I'm right there with Chad. I just couldn't better.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Right now, you've already got enough of a model done
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: that you have value on this line.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I did every I got no life, Chad. I'm
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: literally living here in Hawaii bored out of my mind.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, as soon as as soon as the draft happened,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: I'd basically started to work on every team. Again, it's
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: a lot of bs because of that we're talking about
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: like this is a new head coach. Do I really
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: know it's system the culture running here? No, But I
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: will adjust after springball is done, once we get to
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: some preseason games, I can watch practice, read stuff and
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: beat writers. But yeah, for right now, there's like the
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: skeletons of the model, because you know me, I'm making
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: bets already. It's like as soon as they hang the lines,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: I'm hitting everything that I can. So well, I'm on
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: top of it. Right right right after the draft, I
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: get on top of kind of not only out the
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: numbers for the week.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm betting the Coles plus three and a half.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: You're not betting it yet. So we will have to
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: break down the games that we have bet for Week
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: one so far, because here's another one that I love.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Are you ready, Yeah, Ben Roethlisberger's nemesis. Can you Pickett
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: as a three point underdog at home against the San
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers, Are you fucking kidding me? That
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: is irresponsible to have the Steelers as three point underdogs.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: This team a Mike Tomlin, Rod Ross spot, Matt Mitchell,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: cue it, play it, run it, give me the dogs.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: What a raw ram.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin spot.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: We win the game with just prove of bodies right
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: here today.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Run y'all game today, Mike Tomlin, Rod Ross Spot. San
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Francisco way overvalued. Kenny Pickett played really well. This defense
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: is really good. They improved at every level. Like, of
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: course we're taking the Steelers, and I guarantee you Simon,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the Steelers will be one half of our underdog money line.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Parlay wock rock lock again. This is why people don't understand.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: When me and Chad do you, We're gonna say, shit,
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: that sounds crazy, but it makes sense. The public is
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: so dumb. You guys don't know you're looking at If
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: this was Week twelve of last year, met Chad will
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: probably be over the forty nine ers. This would be
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: a great number. It's a new season, it's week one.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: The whole momentum, the whole mode. If that team has gone,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: they've lost coaches, they have turnover in players. It's completely
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: different people. That's what like, I'm gonna try beat into
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: your heads here for week one. That's the biggest thing
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: you to get here. This isn't Week thirteen of last year.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: This is a week one of an entirely new season.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: So this is too easy. It's way too easy. This
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: line at best should be a pick. The forty ninety's
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: on move the hell their quarterback is So that's a
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: big red flag right there. Their own line is shit. Yes,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: they have one of the best tackles in football. The
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: rest of their line is not good. The Eagles absolutely
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: abused on the playoffs. Guess who has gonna have one
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: of the best d lines in all football, Pittsburgh. Guess
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: who's gonna be healthy week one this upcoming season? DJ Watt.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: So it's just all there, Chad plus three. It's a gift.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: I was hoping we get three and a half, but
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: you know the public won't let it get there. The
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: pros are too smart. They're gonna keep beating this one down.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: So that's one of those numbers. I don't hate grabbing
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: now just because it could be two, two and a
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: half by kickoff, you're on a key number of three. Again.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: If you want to lock your money up for the
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: next two months, grab it now. Me and Chat are
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: told you we're gonna be on the money line. This
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: will be one half for sure, Parlay.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I was just gonna say the Steelers are
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty five on the money line. This will
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: definitely be in the underdog money line. Parlay. Love everything
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: you just said. I actually can't wait for this game.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: It's such a good spot for the Steelers. It's exactly
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: the kind of game they kick off their season with.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: Hey, this is Action Network audio director Matt Mitchell inviting
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: you to head into the sports betting summer with new
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: gear that's built to last, and our folks at Shady Rays,
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: friends of the podcast, they have you covered from the
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: sun to the slopes to out at sea with their
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: premium polarized shades. Shady Rays is an independent sunglasses company
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: offering world class products just as good as any expensive
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: pair you've ever worn, and like our betting podcasts, their
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: sunglasses offer the clearest possible optics. Shady Rays also offers
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: the most bananas protection in all of eyewear. Every pair
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: of their sung glasses is backed by lost and broken replacements.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: So what does that mean.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Here's what they told me.
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: He means if you lose or break your pair even
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: a minute after they arrive, Shady Rays will send you
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: a brand new pair, no questions asked. Plus, if you
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: don't love them, just exchange them for a new pair
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: or even return them for free within thirty days. There's
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: no risk when you shop with Shady Rays. Their team
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: always has your back, basically the opposite of betting on
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: the Oakland A's so exclusively for our podcast listeners, Shady
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Rays is giving out their best deal. Go to Shady
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: rays dot com and use code action for fifty percent
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: off two or more pairs of polarized sunglasses.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Try for yourself.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: The Shades rated five stars by over two hundred thousand people.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: All Right, are you ready for another one? I feel
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: like you're gonna like this one. Arizona plus six on
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: the road at the just discussed Washington Commanders. I think
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the Commanders are a train wreck. Like it doesn't matter
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: what we say about how good their offensive line is
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: or how good their receivers are who's going to be
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: their quarterback? And you say off season is about smoke screens, right,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: So dude, like I'm hearing so much out of Washington
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: from these offensive linemen. We're seeing this guy make throws
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: that we didn't know people could make. Blah blah blah
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: blah because your fucking quarterbacks have been Carson Wentz and
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke. Not because he's the second coming of Joe Montana.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's definitely those matchups. We're a getting probably
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: two free points here right just because Arizona is kind
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: of the joke of the league right now, the lowest
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: win total. I mean, we got we got Nuke Hopkins
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: on podcast right now with Brandon Marshall talking about other
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: qbs he wants to play with while he's still on
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals. Yeah, it's it's totally bad vibes of the
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Cardinals team. But I think I just nail it there.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: It's it's too many points, Like, who the hell is
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Washington to be getting this many points in week one,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: especially in the sense that Kyler Murray's gonna be healthy, right,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: Kyler Murray? This man again, I would love the shoot
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: on him. We've seen it. I mean we me and
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: Chad got burned by it hardly. Last year. He was
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: down I think what was it, twenty four to nothing
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: to the Raiders and then went on this incredible run
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter and brought his whole team back,
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: just running around that offensive line and somehow making things work.
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: Kyler has this incredible amount of talent, and that's this
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: issue with like everything that's going on Arizona right now.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: It's like I want to fade them. I want to
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: say they're going to tank for the season, but Kyler
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: is so much talent that's going to steal a couple
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: of games for them. It's just that's how football is.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: We see it every year. So to me, Arizona plus
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: six way too many points. I mean, Chad just nailed
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: the money line here is plus two to fifteen. That's
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: really high for this kind of matchup. This game shoot
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: closer probably plus one fifty. It's just been bumped up
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: because Arizona now is just completely a joke in this league.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: So you nail the chat like there's a couple of
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: games to jump right out. This is another one that's
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: just the public has made this line way too high
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: and it should not be this high. It's just again,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: I get the I get the hope and the excitement
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: for Washington. I already talked about it. They have really
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: good weapons on that team. They just don't have a quarterback.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Me and Chatter are on the same page. Like, if
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing all these guys talk about incredible the quarterback is,
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I truly do not care. Like this is like it's
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: cool a guy gonna throw from his knees in practice
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: when he's trying to get drafted. It's totally irrelevant for
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: what what he and Chatter are looking for for quarterbacks
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: in the league once the season starts. So yeah, Sam
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Howe might have a great arm, might be an incredible talent,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: but not moving the needle for me with this Washington team.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I forgot that. I never actually said the Washington
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: commander's quarterback's name. But it's Sam Howell, who is in
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: his second year out of North Carolina. Okay, I mean, look,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's aggressive to do a Cardinals Steelers money
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: line parlay in Week one that we're asking bet three
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: sixty five to boost for our users. I'm not totally
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: uncomfortable with it, but I think there might be like
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: other games where we might give our users more of
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: a chance.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: I got another big six point divisional dog for you, Chad.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: You want to go, I got two more games, but
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: if you want to go, you can go.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Rams Rams plus six against the Seahawks. The Seahawks, Chad,
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: What in the world the Rams are plus six unless
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Stafford arm really fell off and Cooper Cup's not going
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: to be back. This is an insane line. This is
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: truly an insane line. I get people are thinking the
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: Rams are done, They're finished, Stafford's completely done. I haven't
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: seen any of that anywhere, right, everything I've seen, he's
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: hoping to be back for the start of the season,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: saying with Cooper Cups. So to me, this is one
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: of those I just threw a bet on it just
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: in case the number does drop once he is back. Officially,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: this number should not be higher than three in this
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: divisional matchup. The Seahawks. Yes, incredible run last year, right,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Gino Smith, comeback Player of the Year, getting them into
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. All that was truly incredible. They apparently nailed
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: the draft, right, everyone loves their draft. They got the
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: best cornerback. They are gonna got the best wide receiver
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: in the draft. That's that's great for them, Like that
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: really could be one of pushing them over the edge
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: where they overtake this division from the forty nine ers.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: But in Week one, coming off to the successful season
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: they had last year, everyone blown smoke up their ass
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: all summer long, and now they're gonna play a divisional
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: game that you know, the Rams, They're gonna be pissed
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: off and hungry. And I don't if you know the
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: history of the Rams and Seahawks, but they always play
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: each other really tough, especially these matchups. So plus six
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: what in the world, Chad. So that's one of those
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: I had to grab it. Money line plus two fifteen
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: grab that as well. One of those games we can
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: buy out right if Stafford is truly out, the Cooper
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Cup is out come, you know, September again, we're three
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: months out, people, we're gonna easily buy all this position.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: For me, this is one of those I have to
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: grab it now because if Stafford is good, this summer
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: is gonna be running. The Pros will not let this
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: divisional line stay this high in Week one in a
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: matchup of a really, really good quarterback in Stafford and
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: a one hit wonder in Geno Smith, like Gino Smith. Yes,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: he had a career here. He got the bag. People,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: how many times we've seen teams players fall off after
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: getting the bag. I mean you just mentioned Carson Wentz.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: That dude was almost MVP. He's out of the league
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: five years later after getting the bag. So that's why,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, your life can change really quick in the NFL.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: There's a reason they're over runner for Seahawks is eight
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: and a half. The books. They know what they're doing
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: to people. They know that looks like a little low
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: win total. So the Seahawks hype is reaching peak form
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I got one word for you by may channel my
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: inner Ben Affleck from Goodwill Hunting and you know, bastardize
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: this line. Regression. We're talking about regression. We're going to
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: see it all over the board in places that we
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: think we will find opportunity. This is exactly one of
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: those spots. Exactly love it Rams plus six.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: And again if they lose outright, me and Chad will
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: be all over the Seahawks the next week because that's
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: going to be an incredible bounce back spot after the
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: public gets burned and they're all pissed off. The following week.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: That's when we come back another side. So again telling
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: people there's a rhythm to what we're doing here. It's
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: not just throwing shit against the wall.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: We got rhythm. Rams plus two fifteen on the money line,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: I want to throw it out to you. Yeah, you ready.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: So it's so gross, It's like, we're already so disgusting.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: I can't believe we're doing this. The Tennessee Titans plus
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: three and a half at the New Orleans Saints. Work
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: with me, okay. Number one, Mike Rabel is still Mike Vrabel. Okay,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: one of the best coaches in the NFL, one of
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: the best game planners in the NFL. I think he's
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: a significantly better coach than Dennis Allen. That's number one.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Number two, what we do know is that Ryan Tannehill
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: is still there and very good chance he may be
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the quarterback in Week one, and we know he is
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: capable and competent enough to go on the road and
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: keep a game close. It is when this Tennessee Titans defense,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: which has historically been good but injured last year, will
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: be its healthiest. It's when Derrick Henry will be his healthiest,
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: assuming he's still in the roster. I don't think the
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Saints are are worthy of being more than a field
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: goal favorite against anybody right now, to be honest.
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: And that's my issue is my model has this off
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: by three and a half points, So I think the
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: books are telling you Tannehill won't be there, Chad's that's
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: my view of this number right here. It's it's basically
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: then banking on Tannel not being the starting quarterback week one.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Because you say, you say this is a pick.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: I had a pick them with Tannehill. This is a
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: pick them. So to me, the books aren't stupid. I
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: think they know what they're doing here if they're viewing
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: this as Tannael won't be there come week one, so
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: I could be, you know, eating my words now come September.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: But that's what this line means to me. And if
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: it's still three and a half week one, chat in
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Tannhel is this start and Derrick Henry is there? No brainer?
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: No brainer. Bet too easy, especially Derek Carr in a
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: new city for the first time. Starting that we talked
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: about it last year. That was one of my favorite
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: easiest bets of the whole season. Last year was Week one,
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: we had Houston, who I know it sounds crazy to say,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: but it was Davis Mill's coming back playing the same team,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: playing against Matt Ryan who's on a new team in
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: the Colts and completely weird out about experience. He even
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: talked about it. They're at eight point favorite on the road,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: that Colts team, and you know, again, it went to overtime. No,
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: we end up not winning that with Houston out right,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: but that eight points was never in doubt. So it's
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: kind of the same scenario here of yeah, Derek Carr,
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: a bunch of new toys on a new team. Like
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: everyone's excited about the Saints, it's Tannel, if it's Derrick Henry,
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: no doubt Chat three and a half, what we'll be
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: on that one.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're already in rhythm for our final five.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: I feel like we could all we could put it
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: in right now, put it in, lock it in.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: You know. Week one's crazy too. I mean we again,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: we love dogs. I like a couple of favorites this year,
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: and there's obviously a couple of dogs they even talked
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: about I love. So it was definitely one of those
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: that hung the lines. It felt like last year where
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I think we had was it ten home dogs Week one?
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: It was something historical and me and you both are laughing.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: We were like, this is madness. There's reason we went
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: five to oh last year Week one. They just set
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: these traps. The public walk right into it. If you
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: have a model, your experience better, you see them a
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: mile away. And that's how I feel this year. There's
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: just a lot of lines that really jumped out from
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: when they hung it for Week one.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Hi, So what else jumped out to you?
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: The biggest one is the Patriots number. The Patriots versus
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: the Eagles. That's a home game for the Patriots on
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: Monday Night Football. It's Tom Brady's ceremony. I get the
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Eagles love, right, I'm an Eagles fan. I think this
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: offseason they might have taken one step back from that
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: team they were last year. Right. They lost a couple
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: of key veterans, but the guys you believe they're going
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: to stay been these new rookies, these second year players,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: they have a ton of talent. So I get why
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: the love of the Eagles. I know a couple of
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: pros that came in really heavy on the Eagles at
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: minus three and a half. I actually bet the other side.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: I was on the Patriots of minus three and I
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: mean plus three and a half. I was on Patriots
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: to plus four. If you log in right now at
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: bet three six to five, it's up to plus five
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: for the five. Ye to me, I wouldn't touch the
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: money line. I still think the Eagles will win this game,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: but it's just screaming the same exact vibes we had
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: last year with Detroit. Detroit was a three and a
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: half dog at home. I think the line went up
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: to four and a half that closed. It finished at
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: exactly three. They came all the way back, the game
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: finished at three. It feels like this way of this
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: Eagles team for this week one where Yeah, I think
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: the Eagles team's incredibly talented. They're going against one of
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: the best defensive mines in all football. Like I can
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: see them wiggling out a win at the end of
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: this game, but they're never going to be blown out
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: this Patriots team, especially not at home. In this situation
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: with Belichick, it just does not happen. And I think
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: they're correcting a lot of stuff where you know, Patricia's
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: not gonna run on their offense. Next year, I think
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: their offense will be better with Mac or whoever the
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: quarterback is, say it is Tannehill, whoever steps into that
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: quarterback position, I think will be better than it was
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: last year for the Patriots. But defensively, I love the
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Patriots team. So this is one of those where you're
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: giving me plus five. Now I'm grabbing that. If you
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: want to keep waiting the public, you can because this
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: could hit six. Because again, it's a primetime game. We chat,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: I know, I talk all the time. The public will chase, right,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: if they get slaughtered on Sunday, they will come in
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: heavy on the Eagles. Right. You already can see it.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: Eagles teasers, right, Eagles and Bills teasers together for the
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Monday night football. The books know what they're doing here.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: So to me, that's just one of those where, like
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: I was already gonna be all over the Patriots, I
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: might be a lone man take on their money line,
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: but I'm begging other people take the plus number. The
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Eagles do not play well up in New England historically.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: I think we had one win in the last thirty
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: years or twenty years that was with Chip Kelly, it
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: was some really random game. We had like two punt returns,
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: a bunch of crazy shit for us to win that game.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: That's not gonna be like this. Like Belichick teams last
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: year was sloppy. They had sloppy you know, special teams
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: was shit. Their defense was pretty shitty to start the year.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: They got better as a year went on. Their offense
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: was just abysmal all season. I don't see it being
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: that way for this Patrios team. I see them being not,
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: you know, winning their division, but I see them being
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: an eight and nine team, nine and eight team compare
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: to what they were last year. So this is a
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: tone center for their season. And we're getting three points
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: two points just because the Eagles went to Super Bowl
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: last year, Chad, So no brainer in a Monday night game,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: taking this dog.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Here Steelers plus three Cardinals plus six Rams plus six
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Pats plus five dude, we are back, baby, We are ugly,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: we are gross. We are taking bad teams from last year.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: It is fucking beautiful right now?
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: All right, it's too easy.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Can I give you a favorite that I like? Yeah,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: and I don't want to hear any Homer bullshit, But
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: come on, the Bears minus two and a half against
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: the Packers at home. Forget about all the hype and
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: all the stuff we've said about the Bears. I'm getting
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: a team at home as less than a field goal
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: against a quarterback who has started a small handful of games.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Like of course, I'm going to take the Bears as
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: short home favorites here.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was actually one of those first under I
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: bet of the season. I took the under in this
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: game as it was forty four or forty five. I
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: think now went down to forty four and a half
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: or forty four. It's just the same thing Chatt has
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: talked about. It's love is unproven. I hate to say,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: but Justin Field's kind of improven at this point. Right.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: We've seen him as a runner. We just haven't seen
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: as a passer.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, so to be.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: That's a lot of points for two offenses that are unproven.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Where Green Bays defense is really good, they should still
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: be good next season. I think that Bears defense has improved,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: not so much that anyone's gonna be scared of them,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: but I think they're better than they were last year.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: I think like they addressed a lot of those issues
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: at the linebacker position, and which I had just talked about,
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: makes sense. The other the pros are in line with you,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I tell you that much. Right. This game opened at
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: minus one for the Bears. It went up to minus
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: three now it's been sitting at minus two and a half,
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: what is it a week and a half now, So
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: it just makes sense. It's a good number, right, It's
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: it's the book saying we don't really believe in Jordan Love,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: like the general public doesn't. Right. We saw him playing
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: one game against the Chiefs. He looked lost, totally lost.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Lafleur has earned nothing from me, right, The guy had
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: an MVP his two best seasons coaching, he had the MVP. Right.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: So it's kind of one of those things where I
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: don't really know what I'm getting from the head coach
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: or the quarterback with Love. At least with the Bears,
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I kind of have a trust with their quarterback. I
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: do think Fields is going to take a step this year.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, me, Chad, we're gonna beating at like a drum.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: But like we love the Bear, especially in this division,
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: they have to win this game, like this is one
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: of those they have to set a tone my only figurious, Chad,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the public is gonna be all over this one. So
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: it's one of those where I'm hoping we're beating the public. Right,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: we're getting the two and a half and by kickoff
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: it's minus three or minus three and a half. We're
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: getting the best of the number. So to me, I'm
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: with you on the Bears. It's just it's a little
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: spooky because, like you know, the general public is starting
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: to kind of catch up to what you mean you've
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: been saying the last couple of months. People are starting
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: to love the Bears head end of the season.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: You know why because they're fucking listening to the podcast.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Uh, do you have another favorite that you're i in
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: right now?
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I know it's going to shock you because
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: the big spread the Vikings minus six and a half, Chad,
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: I know it's a big spread against Tampa. Yeah, I
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: think this Tampa team is just bare bone. I mean
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: they're just left with nothing. You can say, they still
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: have the wire receivers, right, they still got Mike Evans
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: a good one on the outside, which should do well
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: against this bad secondary of the Vikings. But this is
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: going to be a shootout. And I just having zero
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: faith the quarterback of the Bucks will be able to
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: keep up with this Vikings offense. Like as much I
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: love the show on Kirk Cousins, this is when we
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: bet Kirk Chad one pm home start yep, this is
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: this is when you want to back them. So the
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: fact that it's still under seven, I like that number
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: for this team. I just the Vikings. Yes, I think
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: they'll have a down year compared to last year. This
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: is kind of a dream match with them. They're offense,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: the speed they have on the outside. I mean, Gibson,
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: their new receiver they drafted, is fucking sick. He's really good.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: You're pairing him now with Jefferson, arguably the best receiver
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: in football. It's gonna be too easy for Kirk. I mean,
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: even if Dalvin Cook walks, that's no, that's no issue
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: to them, right, They're just gonna fill another running back
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: in that hole. So to me, the Vikings, yes, they'll
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: have a down year. It's not gonna be weak one.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: I like this number a lot for the Vikings to
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: start the season.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: By the way, uh, the NFL This just in from
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Adam Schefter has decided to flex Thursday Night games. This
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: has been a breaking news. This has been a point
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: of contention. They try to do it in March, and
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is really outspoken about it, and the owner
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: of the Giants was really outspoken about it, saying it's
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: not fair. It's not fair to fans who are buying tickets,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: It's not fair to fans who are flying and traveling
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: for the game. This was a FATA complete right. It's
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: like when every when when any big corporation decides, yeah,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: we're doing this is probably better for business. Who cares
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: if you know, our employees get fucked and if a
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: couple smaller circles of users get fucked. The large scale
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: is this is better for corporate partners, and this is
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: better for overall fans. We're fucking doing it. Yeah, this
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: is not a surprise at all.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: It just sucks. We're probably in We're in a really
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: weird time period, right. The NFL is kind of being
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: the biggest scumbags they could possibly be of their fans,
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: and they're saying, well, to watch NFL, you need YouTube TV,
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: you need Peacock, you need fucking Amazon, you need Fox,
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: you need CBS, you need all these different platforms. If
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: you want to watch all of our different games, it's ridiculous, yead, Like,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: just going through all of it's ridiculous. I mean again
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: as I'm a slave to it, Like I'm gonna have
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: to buy that YouTube TV regardless because I went the
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: NFL package. The fact that they had a whole thing
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: where they couldn't show the end of that. Was it
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Boston the heat game where the whole thing went out? Yeah,
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: I could even wrap my head around it, like I
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: literally couldn't if that happened in football, that the loss,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: the damage I would do to the NFL brain is
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: just absurd. So I feel like something's gonna catch up
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: to them here because they're really selling out here, Like
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: this is crazy that if the Eagles are one of
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the better teams in football, They're gonna punish them by
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: putting them on another Thursday night towards the end of
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: the season, right playing against their divisional rival like two
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: hard hitting teams.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I'm with them.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: I hate it because to me, maybe I'm one that
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: enjoys it, but like I love that they would put
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: the Jags and Titans on Thursday, right, No one's gonna
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: watch that game now, it's a primetime game, and it's like,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: it's fun. It's fun that these shitty games they put
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: on Thursday. But like you just said, Ambazon wants their money.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: So not not shocking here, the NFL se for more money.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: The other bit of news just announced Matt Mitchell putting
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: it in the slack channel, green Bay, Wisconsin getting the
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five NFL drafts. I love the draft. I
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: think the way they've taken her on the road. You
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: saw in Kansas City, you saw in Nashville. We show
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: it in Chicago. It's awesome.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: When it goes out.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Philly, it's like it is a great it is a great,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: great party. All right. I want to narrow it down
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: to the money line parlay. We want to tell bet
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: three six five that I miss any games. And by
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: the way, if you hear my if you hear little yelps,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: my dog is outside my door right now because she
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: knows it's time to eat, and she's like, why are
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: you not opening this door and going to give me
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: some food? Did I miss any of your games that
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: you would bet, specifically Underdog, that we might want to
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: include in this parlay?
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: I would say our fans know as well. I got
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: a text from our po who's listening to the show
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: live on YouTube, and he said, how have you not
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: said the Browns yet? Which is fair? Like that literally,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: I think that was one of the first games Me
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Chad text each other about when the line's opened, it's.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: The Browns, Like we two and a half against the
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Bengals right now, we.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Have to do it, Like that is the stinkiest, fishiest line.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: The public is going to be hammering since the in
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: this spot, I hate it, but like Chad knows, this
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: is one of those we're gonna hold our nose and
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: we're just gonna take it like that's a good number.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: This number should be a pick, right. Like both these
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: teams they're not that different. Like the biggest difference last
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: year was the quarterback position. If you go back and
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: watch that Browns team, they were in so many of
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: those games that Jacoby Brissett that they fell just a
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: little short. Then when Watson came back, he looked like
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: at Darren headlights. I just don't see him be in
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: the same way now in the second season, in this offense,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: I think he'll be more comfortable. Right, You'll have a
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: normal preseason, He'll get the reps in two and a half.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: I mean the money has just been pouring in on
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the Bengals and is not budged. That number is not
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: budged to three. So one of the Fisher lines not shocking.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: A guy text me during our show is like, how
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: the fuck have you not mentioned the Browns? So this
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: is to you. We will mention the Browns. Means you
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: love it.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: But then, simon, what are we doing? Is our money
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: line parlay that we're gonna have bet three sixty five
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: boosts for fans, gonna be Steelers plus three at home
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: against the Niners and the Browns plus two and a
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: half at home against the Bangles. We're gonna go.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: That is very AFC North heavy.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with an AFC North money line parlay.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Do we think the day is gonna end with the
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Steelers and Browns? We have hi for first.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: We have to Now that makes too much sense, Let's
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: do it.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Steelers Browns Week one money line parlays. You know
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get the boost. Don't bet it yet. We'll
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: tell everybody what it is. We'll get the bet three
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: six five boost reminder reminder. The Favorites podcast is proudly
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sports
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: book brand. Sign up with promo code action to get
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one or older. Offers available in Colorado,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. Gambling problem call or text
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. Let me recap for people though
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: week one. We love the Steelers plus three, we love
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals plus six, we love the Rams plus six,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: we love the Patriots plus five. We love the Vikes
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: minus six and a half against the Bucks, and we
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: love the Browns plus two and a half against the Bengals.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: We will get a boost for a Steelers Browns money
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: line parlay. Dude, it was so fun to talk football again.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I cannot tell you now.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: I can't wait. And people keep asking about the shows. Ted,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: did we tell them last week that we're doing three
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: shows a week during the season.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think we have, but we're doing. We're doing
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: a live Sunday show Sunday night after the afternoon games
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: before Sunday Night football. Well, quick breakdown recap of how
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: our day went, what we will like in Sunday night.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Any lines that are out will start to sort of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: get an early lean on. We will do our regular
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: Tuesday show, we start to break things down, and then
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: we'll do our pointing towards like what games we might like,
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: and then we'll do our Thursday show.
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: So you're that people. We miss you guys too well.
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: One show right now week and then we dive into
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: three during the season. So don't worry. You're gonna have
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: a lot of Me and Chad come football season.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, so much you're not gonna believe it.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites podcast part of the Action
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Network for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, for Charlie desterco
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: managing our YouTube broadcast I Am Chad Millman. Download us
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: from Apple, podcasts from Spotify wherever you get your podcasts.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Great review, subscribe leab us five stars, say whatever you want.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Feedback is gift. Until next time. I Love you. Action
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem. Help is available
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: twenty four seven at one eight hundred. Gambler