Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Buy/Sell/Hold Bowman Arizona Fall League 10/20/26
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards. Joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly known as JGB, underscore cards underscore. And today we are here to bring you the first episode of its type. We've done these before, they're popular. And we thought that the best way to talk about what's been going on in the AFL thus far would be to put together a buy-sell-hold episode similar to our Bowman Chrome buy-sell holds. However, with the Bowman Chromes, it's been a lot of how can you best spend your money a month after release. These are more selling the hot guys, buying the guys that are still a little lower than they should be, and holding some guys that are struggling Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: that we believe in. Because these are all cards that have been out for a while. Obviously, Anjou Gomez, the only Chrome guy in the AFL. He's playing well. But this is gonna be a bit different in terms of our broader philosophy, just because it's existing cards. So it's not as much the best way to spend your money, but it's what to do if you have these cards or you're looking to buy some cards. So, with that being said, Jeremy, you talked about this guy just now in our AFL preview. I'll let you talk about our or not AFL preview. review. who's our buy? Jheremy: It's gonna be Nathan Flewelling, and I don't just make him this because I have a bunch of him. Like, not trying to do that. like Nathan Flewelling, he's still not 20 years old, which as you know means you're not gonna be draft eligible for another two years if he went to college. made it to high A this year, 243, saw a real increase in the power, which was great to see. 21 home runs, 40 extra base hits. had a 208 ISO, put the ball in the air a good bit of times. The strikeout was up to almost a twenty-eight percent. but again like left handed hitting catcher, like catcher, rays, Caden Bodine, you got all that going for it too. we did mention also he had what seven seven stolen bases against two nights ago in the AFL and last night. Like, not all that worried. You don't know. Like, couldn't be a couple double steals where whatever, right? Like without seeing it, you don't fully know what it what's all there. Regardless. he's he's done well offensively every step of the way. His first premi his first season of Pro Bowl, I know it was kind of like it would like, but even Bob was like all the underlying stats here are really good, like the discipline, everything at the plate. So like you bought them, they were three to five dollars a base auto. They've gotten upwards of fifty fifty five after he was futures game MVP. The middle of the the all-star future game where he hit a nuke. So so far he was second. I mean this is how how far back is this? Maybe a day or two. he was second behind Wellman Francisca in hits for the the entire league. Hitting 371 with an 850 OPS. Again, this this could be a day or two behind. again, still one of the youngest players in the AFL. Obviously not the youngest. We got Mr. Angel Gomez there. He's the fourth ranked. prospect in the system. He's got a lot going for him. And on top of it all, when we talked about AOA in the in the Chrome preview, like he's from Canada. He did not do a lot of our stuff. He did not do a lot of national level circuit stuff as a prep. So the fact that he struggled coming from Alberta, not even like Ontario where baseball's like the hot spot. To see that he kind of struggled is like, okay, that makes sense. He cracked into the top 100. Prospect Pulse has him at 34. basically it'll come down to what he can do defensively behind the plate. He does have a really good arm. He's huge though, right? He's like six foot four. So getting that in place, every all of that, like, we'll see. Defensively, you are buying the bat, you are buying the age, you're buying the fact that he is super young. So there's a lot there, and the fact that you can get him for like 35 bucks, I think, makes him a buy right now. Jaba: Yeah, and just just to add some color here, I couldn't find I couldn't find any of his pop times exactly behind the plate, but reading on Savant where they kind of put together every year's individual pipeline report Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: Everything talks about him having a good arm. People say he's a great athlete. They're doing the whole great makeup, maturity, presence behind the plate, wants to wants to learn. I did look. He threw out twenty-one percent of base stealers this year. I know MLB average is twenty-five to twenty-eight. So not great, but you also never know the other factors of it in the minors. But it seems like before the draft, people did say that he had good pop times. I'm still not seeing exactly what it was. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: But beyond that, I mean, we with stolen stolen bases with minor leaguers, you never really know. He did steal eight bags this year, which, you know, far from exciting, but that does Jheremy: See. Jaba: lead me to hopefully think, you know, hey, this is a good athlete. This isn't a guy who's you know, not that Ryan Al Rodriguez isn't a good athlete, but he he's not kinda that compact, sturdy build. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: So I I'd imagine if he can't stick behind the plate, he'll be able to hopefully pick up a corner outfield spot, if not a first baseman's glove. But like you said, he's still nineteen. he's gonna be twenty all of next year. A lot of time Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: for this kid. Especially I I mean if he starts in double A next year as a twenty year old, that's that's pretty serious. And I I Jheremy: Impressive. If he does anything. Like yeah. Jaba: I'm n I'm not sure why he wouldn't. I mean he spent the whole year in high A and obviously you don't want to push these guys too hard. The strikeout Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: rate wasn't great, but full year of an eight sixteen OPS in high A, I'm not really sure what more they would want to see. So Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. No, I mean he he jumped from six home runs to twenty one home runs. He's got a max E V in the AFL of one eleven and a sixty percent hard hit rate. Like we like that. We like that offensively. He is three for fourteen in Solen Base attempts of caught stealings, but it says two of were sub one nine, which is quick, it's fast, it's we done well. But three for seven three for fourteen is kind of like a Jaba: That's right on with like the twenty-one or so he was at 'cause I guess three for fifteen would be twenty. So, Jheremy: Y exactly. Yep. So Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: yeah, and I guess one one more thing on Flew Elling before we beat it to death. I know when he came out and when he was being talked about in twenty-four Bowman draft, the whole thing was the power capability. It's one of these Canadian kids where you don't have a ton of showcases and stuff to work on. Off, but everyone talked about: hey, this guy hits the ball hard. Let's see how much power he can tap into. And he only had six in his first year. I think he was still hitting balls hard. But Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: it it's nice to see at the age of 19 a guy with that, hey, like he could become a prodigious power hitter. It's really nice to see a three and a half X jump in your power output while moving up a level, while being young for the level. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: He he's younger than a lot of guys who go to the complex. Like he's younger than Jack Wheeler. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: which not not to say that they're similar prospects, but he's put in real serious reps. You know, he's played over two hundred minor league games now, one futures game MVP. Like you said, we both have a lot of him, but that's not really why we're pushing him. We just really think he should be higher. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: but yeah, going into the hold Bit of a opposite situation here. Eduardo Quintero is going to be our hold. He's currently at seventy-two dollars and six cents. Eduardo Quintero had a breakout year in 2025. He was in 25 Bowman. I think Zaire Hope, even though he wasn't a first, was really the huge chase when the product came out for the Dodgers. And Quintero just came out blazing hot in single A. He hadn't been Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: that great in the DSL. He had been a catcher, which is funny because he's 6-1-1-7. 75, but he really just came out of nowhere, exploded onto the scene last year. Great speed, great power output. And people were saying, okay, this is pretty easily a top 50 prospect. It's another great outfielder in the Dodgers org. But I know a lot of people were worried about the power heading into this year, if it was a mirage or if that was something he could keep up. To start this year, the power was not there at all. I forget exactly. How he started the year, but I know it was bad. He ended the year, 501 plate appearances, hit 309 with a 940 OPS, 149 WRC plus, 12 homers, 44 steals. He's still hitting the ball hard. Only struck out 17.4% of the time. Walked 16.6% of the time. Fly ball rate's a little low, but he really the the hit tool's even better than you would think. 82% Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: contact rate, only 6% swinging strikes. He's a dodger. He's a consensus what top fifteen guy? Jheremy: Yeah, pretty comfortably in that top twenty five range I would say. Like comfortably. Jaba: yeah, and he he basically spent the entire year at high A putting up a 149 WRC plus there. Just pretty pretty phenomenal stuff. He just turned twenty-one, he's twenty-one point one years old. you know, he'll be in double A next year as a twenty-one year old. That's right on track. It's not crazy young, but it's I I would say it's on the young side. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Too too fine. The bad news, he's not playing well on the AFL. As of Jheremy: No. Jaba: this writing, he had twenty-eight at bats, five twelve OPS without a homer, hitting one forty-three as well, just not not really like him. But I think if the price drops too much, it's just such an easy buy because now not only do we have two years of him being a productive proven hitter, but again, Jheremy: Mm. Jaba: he's a dodger. It's the same reason why I understand why everyone's panic selling their Shohei. But at the end of the day, like these are guys that are just good. They're better than the numbers they're putting out, and they're Dodgers. I think the only thing that could hurt Quintero would be getting traded, all as I hope. You know, if you go from LA to middle market, that's not the greatest, but at seventy bucks he's a hold. Don't sell it, don't read into it too much, don't panic sell. And Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: I think if he drops to like sixty bucks, I think he's getting into buy territory. If he's sub sixty, I'm all over that. Jheremy: Yeah. He was a guy that even at release, I think he was like a thirty, thirty-five dollar base auto, and you probably could have got him cheaper than that. I picked Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: up a couple, told people to buy That's r kind of right when I first started getting into Bowman, but everything of it was like, this feels incredibly cheap. I don't know much, but I know this feels cheap. Then he kinda ballooned. I don't know if he ever hit triple digits or not. He may have. He may have gotten close, tickled it maybe, but either way, like I like you said, if it if it does like fall down too much, then like, yeah, I I'm I would grab some. Kinda like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: we would have said the same about Dax Kilby, but it was a complete opposite. Like he's skyrocketing already, so Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: which b brings us to our cell. Unless you got something else. Jaba: No, I I was I was just gonna say, you know, it's really not too much to it. Don't read into a thirtieth bat sample and sell something you're gonna regret selling in six months. Jheremy: Right. Then like conversely, like don't read into this, that, the other, right? Like What about Antonio Anderson and what he's done? Like it's been a pretty Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: been a pretty wild jump for him 'cause no lie, you probably could have got his base autos without looking. sorry, two seconds. I gotta text, I gotta respond to at the same time. For work. Actual work. Jaba: Can you guys believe the nerve of this guy? while while Jeremy is answering that, Okay, w w I I have Jheremy: Okay, we're back. Go on. Jaba: his base price on AFL opening day in front of me. Would you like to guess? Jheremy: Here we go. three dollars and seventy four cents. Jaba: three hundred eighty three. That feels like a guess where you saw it and you were like, I'm gonna keep it really close but not nail it. Jheremy: Okay, that is a good price as right. Yes. I I swear I have my I have some notes up and that is it right now. Like, regardless, I I figured it was like three, four, or five bucks, somewhere in there. Antonio Anderson, like, this isn't to detract at all from him of what he's doing, who he is as a prospect. Anything other than that, then you just heard Will say it was three dollars and eighty something cents. And it's now doing twenty-eight dollars and nineteen cents. If you could find a guy at a new release and buy him for three dollars and sell him for fifteen, twenty bucks pretty regularly, you're happy. Ten times in your money, you should be jumping through hula hoops right now. 21 years old, switch hitting shortstop, got paid a million and a half coming out of high school. He's still in high A. So he was in high school, came out at 18, so he's had his 19, 20, 21, made it up to high A. this is now his fourth year in Pro Bowl for what it is worth. stats approved. He had a bad twenty twenty five. This year like he cut down the con he cut down the spring and miss rate and look, it is written right there. But I didn't see that, I swear. but yeah. What he's doing in the AFL, like I have the stats right here, right now, like He's number three in the league with walks, which we like to see. He does have 13 strikeouts, which like places him in the top top ten, which that was a problem, was a swing and miss. But for him to be able to draw ten walks, he's had thirty-two at bats, nine games, eleven hits, two home runs, three doubles, a triple. He's got an eleven eighty eight OPS. Like a lot of good is coming together for Antonio Anderson. Is this the moment where maybe it all clicks for him? He he did get paid a million and a half. He played in my fourteen U game. He played in our all American game. The talent's there. He's in the correct market to have any glimpse of a hope. Now would this would this be a twenty eight dollar auto if he had any other uniform on or one of any other what? Call it twenty five logos. If he was a pirate, would it be doing this? I'm not sure. But like he he's he's doing what he needs to do. at the AFL, but now we want to see him do it a little bit more until we kind of buy into it. I would say sell because you I mean, I think we pretty couldn't like much agree, like sell him. He for being three dollars. You probably didn't even know you had some. They're in white boxes buried away. I went and looked one episode, I think, with Bob, when Bob was on. I had a true blue in a box. It's probably a hundred and fifty dollar card right now. When I bought it for Fifteen, sixteen bucks. Like as much as I love Antonio, I think it's time to sell him and this is what we're talking about. Like, capitalize on it. Take that jump. Like odds are it'll come back down before spring training starts if you want to buy back in. Sell at the peak right now. Make your money. And well, what do you have? Do you agree, disagree? Jaba: Yeah, I mean I think this is one of those Bowman things where it's hard, right? Because it's like so obviously a sell. But even for us and you know, we consider ourselves to be at least halfway intelligent with this stuff, it it it is hard to take the emotion out of it and say, Okay, I'm selling it, like what if this goes up? But yeah, like like you said, he's been striking out a lot. just an organization where Yeah, they got rid of Andy Azakar, but there's still guys ahead of Franklin Primera is gonna be coming out in the next Bowman. Justin Gonzalez really had a nice year after release. I know there were a lot of questions Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: about him and then he basically I wouldn't say he completely shut everyone up, but I had some doubts and I'm I'm not worried anymore for what that's worth. Probably not a ton. But yeah. I think it's one where unless you're like a diehard Red Sox fan, you just gotta sell it. This is the moment. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: This is exactly what we talk about. And while I think we can both agree that it's easier said than done when it's time to kinda cut bait and sell those cards, now's the time. You gotta sell it. I mean, Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: if like like you said, if If you said any guy was gonna basically ten X in two weeks, you you'd Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: take that immediately. so yeah, Antonio Anderson, great for him to be having this breakout. Hopefully he carries it into next year, but he's a cell. nothing about Jheremy: Yeah. And I think Jaba: us not believing in him, but this is the Bowman. Jheremy: And I think something you said too with like the emotional attachment, like, what if it goes up? I mean conversely, what if it goes down? What if he comes back to Earth real quick? Like there is some there's some guessing and speculating, haha. Scout and speculator. With knowing when to sell. And that was something that's always been in the back of my mind, like, what if I sell too early? You're you're ten Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Xing your money. Just take that and go. Like it's okay. Like yes, you could think you're selling it, but you also bought it for what in twenty twenty four draft, so you've held on to it now for almost two full cycles. Like I I think it's time to cut bait, make your money, buy back in here shortly. somebody just bought a blue Antonio blue, true blue for thirty-three dollars on best offer. So I think somebody didn't know about the glow up moment and they Jaba: Ha ha. Jheremy: just took advantage there. Because right before that a base auto Jaba: jeez. Jheremy: did twenty five bucks. So that's sweet. Twenty bucks, twenty one, twenty one, like it's consistently right there, so wild. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. I I I think end of the day it's like you know, you take what you can get here And I think you're gonna be a lot more unhappy if he goes from three to twenty five, twenty eight back down to five than Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: if he goes from three to twenty eight to forty five. I I think Jheremy: Right. Jaba: this is one where you don't get greedy. again, nothing against him, but I don't think he's the guy where you're like, okay, this is like the start of something huge. I hope it Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: is. but there's just really limited upside, I think. And Jheremy: Right. Jaba: He's the Sal, that's really really all there to it. So nicely done Jheremy: Yeah. Right. Jaba: thus far, but time to time to go. Jheremy: This is where we take advantage, let it balloon up, make some money, and go put it into something else now. So cool. Jaba: Yep. Alright. Well that wraps up this buy, sell, hold. Thank you guys as always for listening. Listons have been way up lately, means the world to us, and we are going to continue working hard to get you guys the best Bowman related baseball card content that you can Jheremy: Daily. Jaba: find anywhere. not to toot our own horn. But I think as far as podcasts go, I think that this is the place to be. And we love everybody who's with us now early on. So thank you guys and let's go, Matt. See ya.