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How 2.7% Inflation Could Ruin Holiday Retail (And What to Do About It) | Fast Five Shorts · Omni Talk Retail

• 0:00
  Tariff
• 0:00
  driven
• 0:00
  inflation
• 0:01
  may
• 0:02
  now
• 0:02
  be
• 0:02
  starting
• 0:03
  to
• 0:03
  emerge.
• 0:04
  According
• 0:04
  to
• 0:04
  the
• 0:04
  Associated
• 0:05
  Press,
• 0:05
  inflation
• 0:06
  rose
• 0:06
  last
• 0:06
  month
• 0:06
  to
• 0:07
  its
• 0:07
  highest
• 0:07
  level
• 0:07
  since
• 0:08
  February
• 0:08
  as
• 0:08
  President
• 0:09
  Donald
• 0:09
  Trump's
• 0:09
  sweeping
• 0:10
  tariffs
• 0:10
  push
• 0:11
  up
• 0:11
  the
• 0:11
  cost
• 0:11
  of
• 0:11
  a
• 0:11
  range
• 0:12
  of
• 0:12
  goods,
• 0:12
  including
• 0:12
  furniture,
• 0:13
  clothing
• 0:13
  and
• 0:13
  large
• 0:14
  appliances.
• 0:15
  Consumer
• 0:15
  prices
• 0:16
  rose
• 0:16
  2.7%
• 0:17
  in
• 0:17
  June
• 0:18
  from
• 0:18
  a
• 0:18
  year
• 0:18
  earlier,
• 0:19
  the
• 0:19
  Labor
• 0:19
  Department
• 0:20
  said
• 0:20
  on
• 0:21
  Tuesday,
• 0:22
  up
• 0:22
  from
• 0:22
  an
• 0:22
  annual
• 0:23
  increase
• 0:23
  of
• 0:23
  2.4%
• 0:24
  in
• 0:24
  May.
• 0:25
  On,
• 0:25
  on
• 0:25
  a
• 0:25
  monthly
• 0:26
  basis,
• 0:26
  prices
• 0:26
  climbed
• 0:27
  0.3%
• 0:28
  from
• 0:28
  May
• 0:28
  to
• 0:28
  June
• 0:29
  after
• 0:29
  rising
• 0:29
  just
• 0:30
  0.1%
• 0:31
  the
• 0:31
  previous
• 0:31
  month.
• 0:32
  Excluding
• 0:33
  the
• 0:33
  volatile
• 0:33
  food
• 0:34
  and
• 0:34
  energy
• 0:34
  categories,
• 0:35
  core
• 0:35
  inflation
• 0:36
  raised
• 0:36
  2.9%
• 0:37
  in
• 0:37
  June
• 0:37
  from
• 0:38
  a
• 0:38
  year
• 0:38
  earlier,
• 0:38
  up
• 0:39
  from
• 0:39
  2.8%
• 0:40
  in
• 0:40
  May.
• 0:41
  On
• 0:41
  a
• 0:41
  monthly
• 0:41
  basis,
• 0:42
  it
• 0:42
  picked
• 0:42
  up
• 0:42
  0.2%
• 0:43
  from
• 0:44
  May
• 0:44
  to
• 0:44
  June.
• 0:45
  David,
• 0:45
  I
• 0:45
  hope
• 0:45
  you
• 0:46
  were
• 0:46
  keeping
• 0:46
  track
• 0:46
  of
• 0:47
  all
• 0:47
  those
• 0:47
  percentages
• 0:48
  as
• 0:48
  I
• 0:48
  was
• 0:48
  reading
• 0:49
  them.
• 0:50
  What
• 0:50
  impact
• 0:52
  do
• 0:52
  you
• 0:52
  predict
• 0:52
  tariffs
• 0:53
  will
• 0:53
  have
• 0:53
  on
• 0:54
  retail
• 0:54
  for
• 0:55
  this
• 0:55
  upcoming
• 0:55
  holiday
• 0:56
  season?
• 0:58
  Yeah,
• 0:58
  so
• 0:58
  it's
• 0:58
  a
• 0:58
  great
• 0:58
  question,
• 0:59
  Ann,
• 0:59
  and
• 1:01
  I
• 1:01
  think
• 1:01
  the
• 1:02
  short
• 1:02
  answer
• 1:02
  is
• 1:02
  don't
• 1:03
  know
• 1:03
  yet.
• 1:05
  We're
• 1:05
  getting
• 1:05
  dangerously
• 1:06
  close.
• 1:06
  But
• 1:07
  let's
• 1:07
  be
• 1:07
  honest,
• 1:07
  without
• 1:07
  getting
• 1:08
  into
• 1:08
  the
• 1:08
  whole
• 1:08
  political
• 1:08
  discussion,
• 1:11
  President
• 1:11
  Trump's
• 1:12
  playing
• 1:12
  a
• 1:12
  giant
• 1:12
  game
• 1:13
  of
• 1:13
  chicken
• 1:13
  with
• 1:13
  the
• 1:14
  rest
• 1:14
  of
• 1:14
  the
• 1:14
  world.
• 1:15
  Right.
• 1:15
  In
• 1:16
  terms
• 1:16
  of
• 1:17
  who's
• 1:17
  going
• 1:17
  to
• 1:17
  blink
• 1:18
  first,
• 1:19
  because
• 1:19
  I
• 1:20
  think
• 1:20
  nobody
• 1:21
  believes
• 1:22
  that
• 1:24
  high
• 1:24
  tariffs
• 1:25
  across
• 1:25
  the
• 1:25
  world
• 1:26
  are
• 1:26
  a
• 1:27
  good
• 1:27
  thing.
• 1:28
  And
• 1:29
  if
• 1:30
  there
• 1:30
  isn't
• 1:30
  resolution,
• 1:31
  I
• 1:31
  think
• 1:32
  it's
• 1:32
  going
• 1:32
  to
• 1:32
  have
• 1:32
  an
• 1:32
  enormous
• 1:33
  impact
• 1:35
  on
• 1:35
  the
• 1:35
  holiday
• 1:36
  season
• 1:38
  across
• 1:38
  all
• 1:39
  categories,
• 1:39
  whether
• 1:40
  it's
• 1:40
  luxury
• 1:40
  goods,
• 1:41
  toys,
• 1:43
  apparel,
• 1:44
  it
• 1:45
  really
• 1:45
  doesn't
• 1:45
  matter.
• 1:47
  Everything
• 1:47
  is
• 1:48
  going
• 1:48
  to
• 1:49
  be
• 1:49
  affected.
• 1:49
  And
• 1:51
  you
• 1:51
  know,
• 1:52
  there's
• 1:52
  a,
• 1:52
  it's
• 1:52
  just
• 1:52
  a
• 1:52
  share
• 1:53
  of
• 1:53
  wallet
• 1:53
  issue.
• 1:53
  Right.
• 1:55
  People
• 1:55
  have
• 1:55
  so
• 1:56
  much
• 1:56
  money
• 1:56
  to
• 1:56
  spend
• 1:57
  on
• 1:57
  holiday
• 1:58
  gifts
• 1:59
  and
• 1:59
  family
• 1:59
  excursions
• 2:00
  and
• 2:01
  everything
• 2:01
  along
• 2:02
  those
• 2:02
  lines.
• 2:02
  And
• 2:03
  I
• 2:03
  think
• 2:04
  you're
• 2:04
  going
• 2:04
  to
• 2:04
  see
• 2:04
  a
• 2:05
  rebalancing
• 2:05
  of
• 2:06
  how
• 2:06
  those
• 2:06
  dollars
• 2:07
  get
• 2:07
  spent
• 2:09
  to
• 2:09
  more
• 2:10
  experiential
• 2:10
  things
• 2:11
  as
• 2:11
  opposed
• 2:11
  to
• 2:12
  less
• 2:12
  material
• 2:13
  things
• 2:14
  if
• 2:14
  they
• 2:14
  still
• 2:15
  end
• 2:15
  up
• 2:15
  being,
• 2:15
  you
• 2:16
  know,
• 2:16
  kind
• 2:16
  of
• 2:16
  20,
• 2:17
  30,
• 2:17
  40%
• 2:18
  expensive.
• 2:19
  Right.
• 2:20
  But,
• 2:21
  but
• 2:21
  we
• 2:21
  just,
• 2:22
  nobody
• 2:22
  can
• 2:23
  could
• 2:23
  tell
• 2:23
  you
• 2:23
  right
• 2:24
  now
• 2:24
  with
• 2:24
  any
• 2:24
  certainty
• 2:25
  what
• 2:26
  the
• 2:26
  tariffs
• 2:26
  are
• 2:27
  going
• 2:27
  to
• 2:27
  be
• 2:27
  when
• 2:27
  we
• 2:27
  get
• 2:28
  into
• 2:28
  the
• 2:28
  heart
• 2:28
  of
• 2:28
  the
• 2:29
  holiday
• 2:29
  season.
• 2:30
  And
• 2:31
  anybody
• 2:31
  that
• 2:32
  says
• 2:32
  they
• 2:32
  can
• 2:32
  is,
• 2:33
  is,
• 2:33
  you
• 2:33
  know,
• 2:34
  either
• 2:34
  lying
• 2:34
  or,
• 2:34
  you
• 2:35
  know,
• 2:35
  hopeless,
• 2:36
  hopelessly
• 2:36
  optimistic.
• 2:37
  Right.
• 2:38
  Or,
• 2:38
  you
• 2:38
  know,
• 2:38
  and
• 2:39
  who
• 2:39
  knows
• 2:39
  what
• 2:40
  products
• 2:40
  will
• 2:40
  be
• 2:40
  on
• 2:40
  shelves.
• 2:41
  Chris,
• 2:41
  you
• 2:41
  were
• 2:41
  just
• 2:41
  talking
• 2:41
  about
• 2:42
  this
• 2:42
  in
• 2:42
  the
• 2:42
  last
• 2:42
  headline,
• 2:43
  like
• 2:43
  we're
• 2:43
  already
• 2:43
  seeing
• 2:44
  out
• 2:44
  of
• 2:44
  stocks
• 2:45
  at
• 2:45
  Target
• 2:45
  and
• 2:46
  other
• 2:46
  places.
• 2:47
  What
• 2:47
  do
• 2:47
  you
• 2:47
  think
• 2:48
  as
• 2:48
  a
• 2:49
  former
• 2:49
  merchant
• 2:49
  in
• 2:50
  particular,
• 2:50
  like
• 2:50
  what
• 2:51
  do
• 2:51
  you
• 2:51
  think
• 2:51
  we're
• 2:51
  going
• 2:51
  to
• 2:51
  see
• 2:52
  once
• 2:52
  we
• 2:52
  head
• 2:52
  into
• 2:52
  the
• 2:53
  holiday
• 2:53
  season
• 2:53
  as
• 2:54
  a.
• 2:54
  Result
• 2:54
  of
• 2:54
  this,
• 2:55
  Yeah,
• 2:55
  I
• 2:55
  agree
• 2:56
  with
• 2:56
  David.
• 2:56
  Like
• 2:56
  we
• 2:56
  don't
• 2:57
  know
• 2:57
  what
• 2:57
  tariffs
• 2:58
  will
• 2:58
  be
• 2:58
  in
• 2:58
  place
• 2:58
  during
• 2:58
  the
• 2:59
  holiday
• 2:59
  season.
• 2:59
  But
• 2:59
  I
• 2:59
  do
• 3:00
  think
• 3:00
  there
• 3:00
  are
• 3:00
  some,
• 3:01
  you
• 3:01
  know,
• 3:01
  things
• 3:01
  that
• 3:02
  we
• 3:02
  can
• 3:02
  potentially
• 3:03
  bet
• 3:03
  on.
• 3:03
  And
• 3:03
  everyone
• 3:03
  knows
• 3:03
  I'm
• 3:04
  on
• 3:04
  this
• 3:04
  show,
• 3:04
  knows
• 3:04
  I'm
• 3:04
  a
• 3:05
  betting
• 3:05
  man
• 3:05
  if
• 3:05
  you
• 3:05
  look
• 3:05
  at
• 3:05
  my
• 3:06
  Kentucky
• 3:06
  Derby
• 3:06
  track
• 3:07
  record.
• 3:07
  But
• 3:08
  you
• 3:08
  know,
• 3:08
  I
• 3:08
  think
• 3:08
  if
• 3:09
  I
• 3:09
  was
• 3:09
  betting
• 3:09
  and
• 3:09
  looking
• 3:10
  at
• 3:10
  what's
• 3:10
  going
• 3:10
  to
• 3:10
  happen,
• 3:10
  I
• 3:11
  think
• 3:11
  there's,
• 3:11
  there's
• 3:11
  two
• 3:11
  things
• 3:12
  I'm,
• 3:12
  I'm
• 3:12
  pretty
• 3:13
  confident
• 3:13
  about.
• 3:13
  I
• 3:14
  think
• 3:14
  one,
• 3:15
  I
• 3:15
  think
• 3:15
  this
• 3:15
  will
• 3:15
  be
• 3:15
  the
• 3:16
  least
• 3:16
  well
• 3:16
  stocked
• 3:17
  shelves
• 3:18
  are
• 3:18
  across
• 3:19
  all
• 3:19
  of
• 3:19
  retail
• 3:20
  that
• 3:20
  we've
• 3:20
  seen
• 3:20
  for
• 3:21
  a
• 3:21
  long
• 3:21
  time.
• 3:21
  And
• 3:22
  so,
• 3:22
  and
• 3:22
  so
• 3:22
  that
• 3:23
  then
• 3:23
  therefore
• 3:24
  means
• 3:25
  the
• 3:25
  proclivity
• 3:26
  we've
• 3:26
  seen
• 3:26
  for
• 3:27
  consumer
• 3:27
  spending
• 3:27
  to
• 3:28
  get
• 3:28
  pushed
• 3:28
  up
• 3:28
  into
• 3:29
  October
• 3:29
  by
• 3:30
  way
• 3:30
  of
• 3:30
  Prime
• 3:30
  Day,
• 3:31
  which
• 3:31
  kicks
• 3:31
  it
• 3:31
  off,
• 3:32
  is
• 3:32
  going
• 3:32
  to
• 3:32
  happen
• 3:33
  even
• 3:33
  more
• 3:33
  this
• 3:33
  year
• 3:34
  because
• 3:34
  people
• 3:34
  are
• 3:34
  going
• 3:35
  to
• 3:35
  need
• 3:35
  to
• 3:35
  get
• 3:35
  in
• 3:35
  there
• 3:35
  and
• 3:36
  get
• 3:36
  what
• 3:36
  they
• 3:36
  can
• 3:37
  when
• 3:37
  they
• 3:37
  can
• 3:37
  get
• 3:38
  it
• 3:38
  for
• 3:38
  those
• 3:39
  gifts
• 3:39
  and
• 3:39
  for
• 3:39
  the
• 3:39
  holidays.
• 3:40
  So
• 3:40
  those
• 3:41
  are
• 3:41
  the
• 3:41
  two
• 3:41
  things
• 3:41
  I
• 3:41
  would
• 3:42
  bet
• 3:42
  on.
• 3:42
  It's
• 3:42
  not
• 3:42
  going
• 3:43
  to
• 3:43
  be
• 3:43
  great
• 3:43
  stock
• 3:43
  position
• 3:44
  because
• 3:44
  people
• 3:44
  are
• 3:44
  probably
• 3:45
  waiting
• 3:45
  to
• 3:45
  decide
• 3:45
  where
• 3:46
  to
• 3:46
  place
• 3:46
  their
• 3:46
  bets,
• 3:46
  how
• 3:47
  much
• 3:47
  they're
• 3:47
  going
• 3:47
  to
• 3:47
  place.
• 3:47
  They
• 3:47
  just
• 3:48
  don't
• 3:48
  know
• 3:48
  yet.
• 3:48
  At
• 3:49
  least
• 3:49
  that's
• 3:49
  what
• 3:49
  I'm
• 3:49
  surmising.
• 3:50
  But
• 3:50
  you
• 3:50
  guys,
• 3:51
  A
• 3:51
  and
• 3:51
  M
• 3:51
  group
• 3:51
  can
• 3:51
  probably
• 3:52
  answer
• 3:52
  that
• 3:52
  better
• 3:52
  than
• 3:52
  I
• 3:52
  can.
• 3:53
  But
• 3:53
  yeah,
• 3:53
  I
• 3:53
  think
• 3:53
  you're
• 3:54
  going
• 3:54
  to
• 3:54
  see
• 3:54
  people
• 3:54
  trying
• 3:54
  to
• 3:55
  grab
• 3:55
  things
• 3:55
  as
• 3:55
  quickly
• 3:55
  as
• 3:56
  they
• 3:56
  can
• 3:56
  on
• 3:56
  deals
• 3:56
  early
• 3:57
  in
• 3:57
  the
• 3:57
  season
• 3:57
  too.
• 3:58
  Yeah.
• 3:58
  And
• 3:58
  I'm
• 3:59
  curious
• 3:59
  too,
• 4:00
  you
• 4:00
  know,
• 4:00
  Chad,
• 4:00
  we'll
• 4:01
  go
• 4:01
  to
• 4:01
  you
• 4:01
  next.
• 4:01
  But
• 4:01
  I
• 4:02
  also
• 4:02
  wonder
• 4:02
  like
• 4:03
  the
• 4:03
  mass
• 4:03
  retailers
• 4:04
  that
• 4:04
  we're
• 4:04
  talking
• 4:05
  about,
• 4:05
  the
• 4:05
  Walmarts,
• 4:06
  the
• 4:06
  targets,
• 4:06
  you
• 4:07
  know,
• 4:07
  the,
• 4:07
  these
• 4:08
  guys
• 4:08
  are
• 4:08
  prepared
• 4:09
  more
• 4:10
  or
• 4:10
  have
• 4:10
  the
• 4:10
  ability
• 4:11
  to
• 4:11
  be
• 4:11
  more
• 4:11
  agile
• 4:12
  when
• 4:12
  it
• 4:12
  comes
• 4:12
  to
• 4:13
  these
• 4:13
  types
• 4:13
  of
• 4:13
  things.
• 4:13
  I'm
• 4:14
  wondering
• 4:14
  what
• 4:14
  the
• 4:15
  small,
• 4:15
  medium
• 4:15
  sized
• 4:16
  businesses
• 4:16
  are
• 4:16
  going
• 4:16
  to
• 4:16
  do
• 4:17
  because
• 4:17
  they
• 4:17
  cannot
• 4:18
  tolerate
• 4:18
  the
• 4:19
  flux,
• 4:19
  the
• 4:19
  constant
• 4:20
  fluctuation.
• 4:22
  And
• 4:22
  I
• 4:22
  think
• 4:22
  that
• 4:22
  also
• 4:23
  impacts,
• 4:24
  you
• 4:24
  know,
• 4:24
  when
• 4:24
  it
• 4:25
  comes
• 4:25
  to
• 4:25
  gift
• 4:26
  giving
• 4:26
  and
• 4:26
  holiday
• 4:27
  times
• 4:27
  of
• 4:27
  year.
• 4:28
  You
• 4:28
  know,
• 4:28
  are
• 4:28
  we
• 4:28
  in
• 4:28
  the
• 4:29
  sea
• 4:29
  of
• 4:29
  sameness
• 4:30
  where
• 4:30
  it's
• 4:30
  like
• 4:30
  your
• 4:30
  options
• 4:31
  are
• 4:31
  whatever
• 4:31
  Target
• 4:32
  and
• 4:32
  Walmart
• 4:32
  and
• 4:32
  Amazon
• 4:33
  still
• 4:33
  have
• 4:33
  left
• 4:33
  in
• 4:34
  stock,
• 4:34
  stock
• 4:34
  and
• 4:34
  that's
• 4:35
  what
• 4:35
  you're
• 4:35
  going
• 4:35
  to
• 4:36
  get.
• 4:36
  There's
• 4:36
  no,
• 4:36
  there's,
• 4:37
  you
• 4:37
  know,
• 4:37
  we
• 4:37
  had
• 4:37
  Kristen
• 4:38
  Sevilla
• 4:38
  on
• 4:38
  the
• 4:38
  show
• 4:38
  not
• 4:39
  too
• 4:39
  long
• 4:39
  ago
• 4:39
  talking
• 4:39
  about
• 4:40
  how
• 4:40
  it's
• 4:40
  the
• 4:40
  sea
• 4:41
  of
• 4:41
  sameness.
• 4:41
  We're
• 4:41
  going
• 4:41
  to
• 4:42
  see,
• 4:42
  you
• 4:42
  know,
• 4:42
  all,
• 4:43
  all
• 4:43
  beige
• 4:44
  goods.
• 4:44
  We're
• 4:44
  not
• 4:44
  going
• 4:45
  to
• 4:45
  see
• 4:45
  the,
• 4:45
  the
• 4:45
  like
• 4:46
  highlight
• 4:46
  pop
• 4:46
  of
• 4:47
  color
• 4:47
  in
• 4:47
  apparel
• 4:48
  or
• 4:48
  accessories
• 4:48
  that
• 4:49
  used
• 4:49
  to
• 4:49
  be
• 4:50
  that
• 4:50
  Intriguing
• 4:50
  and
• 4:51
  fun,
• 4:51
  more
• 4:51
  personal
• 4:52
  kind
• 4:52
  of
• 4:52
  gift.
• 4:53
  So
• 4:53
  I,
• 4:54
  I'm
• 4:54
  curious,
• 4:54
  Chad,
• 4:54
  like
• 4:55
  what
• 4:55
  do
• 4:55
  you
• 4:55
  think
• 4:57
  shoppers
• 4:57
  are
• 4:57
  going
• 4:58
  to
• 4:58
  see?
• 4:58
  Are
• 4:58
  they
• 4:58
  going
• 4:59
  to
• 4:59
  go
• 4:59
  the
• 4:59
  way
• 5:00
  of
• 5:00
  what
• 5:00
  David's
• 5:00
  saying
• 5:01
  where
• 5:01
  you
• 5:01
  know,
• 5:02
  that
• 5:02
  they're
• 5:02
  just
• 5:02
  going
• 5:03
  to
• 5:03
  have
• 5:03
  to
• 5:03
  cross
• 5:03
  their
• 5:03
  fingers
• 5:04
  and
• 5:04
  hope
• 5:04
  that
• 5:04
  they
• 5:04
  can
• 5:04
  get
• 5:05
  the
• 5:05
  best
• 5:05
  thing
• 5:06
  possible
• 5:06
  or
• 5:07
  are
• 5:07
  there
• 5:08
  things
• 5:08
  that
• 5:08
  your
• 5:09
  clients
• 5:09
  or
• 5:09
  that
• 5:10
  other
• 5:10
  retailers
• 5:10
  and
• 5:10
  brands
• 5:11
  can
• 5:11
  be
• 5:11
  doing
• 5:11
  now
• 5:11
  to
• 5:12
  kind
• 5:12
  of
• 5:12
  help
• 5:12
  still
• 5:13
  give
• 5:13
  people
• 5:14
  that
• 5:14
  thing
• 5:14
  to
• 5:14
  shop
• 5:15
  for
• 5:15
  that
• 5:15
  unique
• 5:15
  gift?
• 5:16
  Yeah,
• 5:19
  really,
• 5:19
  really
• 5:19
  great
• 5:20
  avenues
• 5:21
  that,
• 5:21
  that
• 5:21
  you
• 5:21
  guys
• 5:22
  have
• 5:22
  laid
• 5:22
  out.
• 5:22
  So
• 5:23
  if
• 5:23
  I
• 5:24
  first
• 5:24
  answer
• 5:24
  from
• 5:24
  kind
• 5:25
  of
• 5:25
  the
• 5:25
  advisory
• 5:25
  standpoint
• 5:26
  and
• 5:26
  then
• 5:26
  maybe
• 5:27
  the
• 5:27
  prognostication
• 5:28
  standpoint,
• 5:29
  listen
• 5:30
  with,
• 5:30
  with
• 5:30
  respect
• 5:30
  to
• 5:31
  tariffs
• 5:32
  and,
• 5:32
  and
• 5:33
  actually
• 5:33
  predating
• 5:34
  that
• 5:34
  to
• 5:34
  the
• 5:35
  last
• 5:35
  round
• 5:35
  of
• 5:36
  hyperinflation,
• 5:37
  what
• 5:37
  we're
• 5:37
  advising
• 5:38
  our
• 5:38
  clients
• 5:38
  is
• 5:39
  first
• 5:41
  minimize
• 5:42
  the
• 5:42
  impact
• 5:42
  as
• 5:42
  much
• 5:42
  as
• 5:43
  possible.
• 5:43
  Right.
• 5:43
  Leave
• 5:44
  no
• 5:44
  stone
• 5:45
  unturned.
• 5:45
  When
• 5:46
  it
• 5:46
  comes
• 5:46
  to
• 5:46
  cost
• 5:46
  reduction,
• 5:47
  you
• 5:47
  have
• 5:47
  to
• 5:47
  approach
• 5:48
  it
• 5:48
  there
• 5:48
  first
• 5:49
  before
• 5:50
  even
• 5:50
  testing
• 5:51
  how
• 5:52
  much
• 5:52
  is
• 5:52
  too
• 5:52
  much
• 5:53
  for
• 5:53
  the
• 5:53
  consumer
• 5:53
  to
• 5:53
  bear
• 5:54
  in
• 5:54
  pricing.
• 5:54
  Like
• 5:55
  a
• 5:55
  hard
• 5:55
  look
• 5:56
  of
• 5:56
  costs
• 5:57
  across
• 5:57
  the
• 5:57
  board,
• 5:58
  not
• 5:58
  just
• 5:58
  in,
• 5:58
  in
• 5:59
  cogs
• 5:59
  is,
• 5:59
  is
• 6:00
  mandatory.
• 6:01
  But
• 6:01
  then
• 6:01
  as
• 6:01
  far
• 6:02
  as
• 6:02
  pricing
• 6:03
  and
• 6:03
  those
• 6:04
  that'll
• 6:04
  be
• 6:04
  more
• 6:04
  successful
• 6:05
  in
• 6:05
  that
• 6:05
  then
• 6:06
  have
• 6:06
  the,
• 6:06
  the
• 6:06
  ability
• 6:07
  to,
• 6:07
  to
• 6:07
  have
• 6:08
  more
• 6:08
  flexibility.
• 6:08
  To
• 6:09
  your
• 6:09
  point
• 6:09
  and
• 6:10
  you
• 6:10
  know,
• 6:10
  when
• 6:10
  it
• 6:10
  comes
• 6:10
  to
• 6:11
  pricing
• 6:11
  like
• 6:11
  it,
• 6:11
  especially
• 6:12
  at
• 6:12
  this
• 6:12
  stage,
• 6:13
  it
• 6:13
  has
• 6:13
  to
• 6:13
  be
• 6:13
  precise.
• 6:14
  Right.
• 6:14
  Looking
• 6:14
  at
• 6:15
  consumer
• 6:16
  price
• 6:16
  elasticities,
• 6:17
  buy
• 6:17
  skew,
• 6:18
  being
• 6:19
  selective
• 6:19
  on
• 6:20
  where
• 6:20
  your
• 6:20
  hikes
• 6:21
  versus
• 6:21
  holds
• 6:22
  are,
• 6:23
  you
• 6:23
  know,
• 6:23
  blanket
• 6:24
  moves
• 6:24
  are
• 6:24
  going
• 6:25
  to
• 6:25
  be
• 6:25
  tough
• 6:25
  to
• 6:25
  do
• 6:26
  again
• 6:26
  more
• 6:26
  broadly
• 6:27
  or
• 6:27
  people
• 6:27
  are
• 6:27
  going
• 6:28
  to
• 6:28
  find
• 6:28
  themselves
• 6:28
  out
• 6:28
  of
• 6:28
  the
• 6:29
  market.
• 6:29
  Right.
• 6:30
  I
• 6:30
  mean
• 6:30
  as
• 6:31
  far
• 6:31
  as
• 6:31
  far
• 6:31
  as
• 6:31
  going
• 6:31
  into
• 6:32
  the
• 6:32
  back
• 6:32
  part
• 6:32
  of
• 6:32
  the
• 6:32
  year
• 6:33
  here,
• 6:33
  I
• 6:33
  mean,
• 6:33
  I
• 6:34
  agree.
• 6:34
  Listen,
• 6:35
  we
• 6:35
  can't
• 6:35
  predict
• 6:36
  exactly
• 6:36
  where
• 6:36
  things
• 6:37
  are
• 6:37
  going
• 6:37
  to
• 6:37
  hit
• 6:37
  and
• 6:37
  how.
• 6:38
  I
• 6:39
  think
• 6:39
  we
• 6:39
  are
• 6:39
  going
• 6:39
  to
• 6:39
  continue
• 6:39
  to
• 6:40
  see
• 6:40
  upward
• 6:40
  movement
• 6:41
  in
• 6:41
  kind
• 6:41
  of
• 6:41
  the
• 6:41
  staples
• 6:42
  and
• 6:42
  essentials
• 6:43
  categories.
• 6:43
  So
• 6:44
  grocery,
• 6:45
  personal
• 6:46
  care,
• 6:46
  pet,
• 6:47
  you
• 6:48
  know,
• 6:48
  and
• 6:48
  private
• 6:48
  labels
• 6:49
  not
• 6:49
  exempt
• 6:50
  from
• 6:50
  these.
• 6:50
  So
• 6:50
  I
• 6:51
  think
• 6:51
  we'll
• 6:51
  likely
• 6:52
  see
• 6:52
  them
• 6:53
  move
• 6:53
  together.
• 6:54
  And
• 6:55
  where
• 6:55
  you
• 6:55
  may
• 6:55
  see
• 6:56
  more
• 6:56
  holds,
• 6:57
  especially
• 6:57
  for
• 6:57
  holiday
• 6:58
  season,
• 6:58
  here
• 6:59
  is
• 6:59
  in
• 6:59
  your
• 6:59
  more
• 7:00
  traditional
• 7:01
  gift
• 7:02
  giving,
• 7:02
  discretionary
• 7:03
  spend
• 7:03
  areas
• 7:04
  like
• 7:04
  apparel
• 7:05
  and
• 7:05
  it'll
• 7:06
  be
• 7:06
  tough,
• 7:06
  but
• 7:07
  electronics,
• 7:07
  right.
• 7:08
  They're
• 7:08
  too
• 7:08
  important
• 7:08
  for
• 7:09
  the
• 7:09
  season.
• 7:10
  And
• 7:10
  I
• 7:11
  love
• 7:11
  what
• 7:11
  David
• 7:11
  said.
• 7:11
  We've
• 7:12
  already
• 7:12
  seen
• 7:13
  shifting
• 7:13
  last
• 7:14
  year
• 7:14
  toward
• 7:15
  experiences
• 7:16
  versus
• 7:17
  goods
• 7:17
  on
• 7:18
  holiday
• 7:18
  gift
• 7:18
  giving.
• 7:21
  But
• 7:21
  I
• 7:21
  also
• 7:21
  agree,
• 7:21
  I
• 7:21
  mean
• 7:22
  I,
• 7:22
  I
• 7:22
  think
• 7:22
  it's
• 7:22
  important
• 7:23
  that
• 7:23
  where
• 7:23
  prices
• 7:24
  do
• 7:24
  rise,
• 7:25
  I
• 7:25
  expect
• 7:26
  significantly
• 7:27
  lower
• 7:28
  inventory
• 7:29
  positions
• 7:29
  for
• 7:29
  those
• 7:29
  items
• 7:30
  at
• 7:30
  holiday.
• 7:30
  Right.
• 7:31
  I
• 7:31
  think
• 7:31
  retailers
• 7:32
  will
• 7:32
  be
• 7:32
  more
• 7:32
  content
• 7:33
  to
• 7:33
  sell
• 7:34
  out,
• 7:35
  you
• 7:35
  know,
• 7:36
  than
• 7:36
  be
• 7:36
  left
• 7:36
  with
• 7:36
  tremendously
• 7:37
  expensive
• 7:38
  inventory
• 7:38
  piles
• 7:39
  and
• 7:39
  so
• 7:40
  it'll
• 7:40
  be
• 7:40
  those
• 7:41
  that
• 7:41
  can
• 7:41
  manage
• 7:42
  the
• 7:42
  SKU
• 7:43
  balance
• 7:43
  with
• 7:44
  how
• 7:44
  they're
• 7:44
  able
• 7:44
  to
• 7:45
  optimize
• 7:47
  and
• 7:48
  pointed
• 7:49
  pricing
• 7:50
  actions
• 7:52
  relative
• 7:52
  to
• 7:52
  inventory
• 7:53
  for
• 7:53
  the
• 7:53
  season.
• 7:54
  Man,
• 7:55
  it's
• 7:55
  a
• 7:55
  tricky,
• 7:56
  tricky
• 7:56
  balance.
• 7:57
  Well
• 7:58
  said.
• 7:59
  I
• 8:00
  don't
• 8:00
  miss
• 8:00
  being
• 8:00
  in
• 8:00
  those
• 8:01
  rooms
• 8:01
  making
• 8:01
  those
• 8:01
  decisions
• 8:02
  one
• 8:02
  bit
• 8:02
  right
• 8:03
  now,
• 8:03
  especially
• 8:03
  during
• 8:03
  with
• 8:04
  this
• 8:04
  climate.