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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: KRC Deep Talk Station A twenty eight on a Tuesday,
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  Speaker 1: It's that time a week retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: We call it the year. He calls it the Daniel
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  Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive Alerted Podcasts. You can follow him wherever
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  Speaker 1: he does his podcast and wherever you get your podcasts.
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  Speaker 1: Welcome back, my friend. It's always great having you on
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  Speaker 1: the fifty five KRSE Morning show, Sir.
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  Speaker 2: And believe me, it's always great to be here. Thanks
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  Speaker 2: for having me back.
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  Speaker 1: I appreciate you willingness to come on the show and
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  Speaker 1: talk about matters military and I. As we enter, and
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  Speaker 1: I've been reeling from this all morning, I wasn't paying
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  Speaker 1: attention to the passage of time. Daniel Davis, we have
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  Speaker 1: just entered year number five of the conflict between Russian
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  Speaker 1: and Ukraine. But before we get to that and some
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  Speaker 1: of the horrific fatality figures that numbers have been crunched
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  Speaker 1: from the Center for Strategic Intelligence Studies, I want to
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  Speaker 1: start with Mexico. I I'm actually cautiously optimistic that the
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  Speaker 1: President Scheinbaum is going to get their act together and
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  Speaker 1: they're finally going to do something about the state of
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  Speaker 1: corruption in their country, maybe for the benefit of the
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  Speaker 1: entire Mexican population, but most notably the spillover benefit we're
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  Speaker 1: going to enjoy. Obviously, Donald Trump had been threatening to
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  Speaker 1: send in American military forces to deal with the cartel
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  Speaker 1: problems in Mexico, something that I'm not holding my hand
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  Speaker 1: up in favor of Daniel Davis. It's their country, let
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  Speaker 1: them figure it out. But I've been witnessing for the
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  Speaker 1: past several decades the level of corruption in Mexico. You
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  Speaker 1: get a reform candidate runs for office, judicial, prosecutorial, elected
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  Speaker 1: capacity in something, somebody kills them. Oh, the cartel they
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  Speaker 1: have infiltrated virtually every area of government. It is costally corrupt,
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  Speaker 1: and the only way to stop them is, I guess,
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  Speaker 1: to start killing the elementsos of the world and maybe
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  Speaker 1: take some stocking themselves. Do you see this as a
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  Speaker 1: positive development, Daniel Davis? Do you think I'm overly optimistic, Sir?
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  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be optimistic at the outcome just yet. I
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  Speaker 2: am optimistic that at least they're trying, right, because in
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  Speaker 2: the absence of even starting something like this, then you
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  Speaker 2: literally just surrender to these folks. And I've actually been
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  Speaker 2: doing some just some research here to remind my own
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  Speaker 2: self about some of the recent history. I'm talking like
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  Speaker 2: the last several days, decades, and it is just bloody
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  Speaker 2: for all those who have tried, and I mean at
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  Speaker 2: every level. It's not just at the top, but it's
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  Speaker 2: all the ones in between. And these guys are absolutely
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  Speaker 2: bloodthirsty and ruthless in their attacks, killing family members, friends, obviously, competitors, etc.
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  Speaker 2: And definitely members of the military, slash police, and the government.
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  Speaker 2: And it is no joke to take these on. And
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  Speaker 2: when somebody like Shinbaum takes us on, they know for
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  Speaker 2: sure that they are putting their lives in their hands
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  Speaker 2: and that they could go down. But man, and you
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  Speaker 2: saw the results here. That was a pretty strong signal
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  Speaker 2: that this is not going to be cheap, easy or quick.
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  Speaker 2: So I think that it's going to be just like
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  Speaker 2: so many of these things are at nearly any level,
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  Speaker 2: it's a contest of wills, who is going to press
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  Speaker 2: the hardest, who is going to take the casualties, because
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  Speaker 2: both sides are going to suffer some. I mean, the
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  Speaker 2: police took a big beating here in this first one here,
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  Speaker 2: I think like twenty five policemen were killed and a
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  Speaker 2: bunch on the other side too, So it's it's going
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  Speaker 2: to be a matter of ill and hopefully they're prepared
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  Speaker 2: for that before they started, and this will just continue
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  Speaker 2: on and God help us all if it doesn't succeed.
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  Speaker 2: But if it does, then I am I would be
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  Speaker 2: very optimistic, and I'm hopeful that they can get there
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  Speaker 2: for the sake not just of the drugs that we're
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  Speaker 2: coming in with the United States, but for the people
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  Speaker 2: of Mexico.
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  Speaker 1: That's my Yeah, that's my broader point. Listen, I don't
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  Speaker 1: do drugs. I don't care. I mean, if we supply
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  Speaker 1: that market, it is our own fault that there is
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  Speaker 1: a market here in America. Okay, let's little little moment
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  Speaker 1: of self reflection on that. But yeah, to be more broadly,
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  Speaker 1: such potential the country of Mexico, I mean, they do manufacturing,
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  Speaker 1: they have business and industry, and if they just got
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  Speaker 1: rid of the damn drugs and the cartel's influence and
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  Speaker 1: all the corruption. You can only imagine the level of
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  Speaker 1: corruption in terms of money flowing back and forth, it
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  Speaker 1: will be so much better for the Mexican people, which
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  Speaker 1: of course would certainly spill over to our economic advantage.
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  Speaker 1: It's good for everybody to get rid of these clowns,
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  Speaker 1: it really is.
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  Speaker 2: It's just that it's so bloody hard because there is
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  Speaker 2: so much money involved in when you have that kind
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  Speaker 2: of cash. I mean, we saw when Pablo Escobar was
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  Speaker 2: taken down, when you know several of these others in
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  Speaker 2: areas like Menuel Noriego, et cetera. When they guys, when
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  Speaker 2: these guys go down, there's always people ready to take
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  Speaker 2: their place because there's just so much money. And that's
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  Speaker 2: why this is such a hard, thorny issue. It's not
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  Speaker 2: just taken down this cartel or that one, but you've
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  Speaker 2: got to be able to just sustain this over time.
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  Speaker 2: It's a generational fight, and I hope Mexico's up for it.
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  Speaker 1: Well. It's been in generations going on that it's been
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  Speaker 1: established as a corrupt regime because of the cartel's infiltration.
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  Speaker 1: They've allowed it to go by, and the cartel has
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  Speaker 1: been wildly successful with their terrorist tactics, keeping responsible people
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  Speaker 1: from office and bringing about reform. I understanding it's widely
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  Speaker 1: reported that American intelligence is helping the Mexican government in
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  Speaker 1: their efforts. Welcome help. I imagine that Scheinbaum has no
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  Speaker 1: problem utilizing our intelligence resources, not our military ones, but
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  Speaker 1: our intelligence resources to find out where these guys are.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it took quite a bit of intelligence to
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  Speaker 1: figure out, well how Chapo was or whatever that guy's
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  Speaker 1: name was, the late.
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  Speaker 2: You there, Yeah, Oh sorry, I thought you were continue on, Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: And I'll tell you that's That's one of the things
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  Speaker 2: that's that's hopeful is when President Trump was talking about
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  Speaker 2: unilaterally going in and doing what we want, that would
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  Speaker 2: have been a big mistake and just awful. But going
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  Speaker 2: in at the cooperation with the Mexican government, that's actually
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  Speaker 2: a good thing. And if they asked for this and
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  Speaker 2: we gave it to them and it was successful and
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  Speaker 2: it was core coordinated and it was mutually beneficial, that
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  Speaker 2: is a good thing and that I hope continues.
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  Speaker 1: I do too, all right, pivoting over again year five
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  Speaker 1: for the war between Russia and Ukraine. And I've mentioned
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  Speaker 1: the fog of war and now you've heard that comment before.
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  Speaker 1: We've talked about casualties on this program before. No one
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  Speaker 1: has a real way of knowing. I suppose Wall Street
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  Speaker 1: Journal side of statistics from the Center for Strategic and
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  Speaker 1: Intelligent studies. They reference it as nonpartisan. I'm sure you're
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  Speaker 1: familiar with it. But Russia had three hundred and twenty
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  Speaker 1: five thousand fatalities and one point two million casualties to
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine's one hundred and forty thousand fatalities and six hundred
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  Speaker 1: thousand casualties. The level of devastation and bloodshed. I just
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  Speaker 1: read those and I was overwhelmed by that. When you
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  Speaker 1: see it in those stark numbers, it's just so sad
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  Speaker 1: and tragic, leading me to, well, where are we today?
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: You know, I've heard a figure that I personally think
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  Speaker 2: is more plausible on the Russian side of about one
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  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty thousand fatalities and about triple that number
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  Speaker 2: of wounded, And that seems reasonable given the concept are
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  Speaker 2: the top of combat operations in the amount of time.
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  Speaker 2: But I don't at all believe those numbers on the
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine side. They don't seem reasonable or plausible at all.
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  Speaker 2: That the side that it has somewhere between you three
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  Speaker 2: to five to ten times disadvantage in firepower is somehow
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  Speaker 2: going to suffer half the casualties or less than the
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  Speaker 2: other side just doesn't make any sense.
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  Speaker 1: To me at all.
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  Speaker 2: I think the more plausible number I've seen is somewhere
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  Speaker 2: around eight to nine hundred thousand dead on the Ukraine side,
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  Speaker 2: and that is logical based on the amount of firepower,
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  Speaker 2: how this war has gone, especially in the last eighteen months.
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  Speaker 2: I think we need to be sober that the losses
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  Speaker 2: on the Ukraine side are astronomical and staggering, and they're
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  Speaker 2: keeping that hidden. And I can't speak to this organization
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  Speaker 2: here that put these numbers out. I can just tell
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  Speaker 2: you that doesn't seem logical to me based on what
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  Speaker 2: we see on the ground well, and given the loss
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  Speaker 2: of life I mean, and I have no reason to
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  Speaker 2: disagree with you, And what you say certainly is logical
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  Speaker 2: and reasonable. Again, fog of war. You know somebody has
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  Speaker 2: an incentive report a higher number here or lower number there, whatever.
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  Speaker 2: But you know, when this conflict is over, and God
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  Speaker 2: only help us that it ends soon, and whatever land
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  Speaker 2: concessions are made, there is still going to be a
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  Speaker 2: country of Ukraine. Are they going to be able to rebuild?
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  Speaker 2: I understand it's a very agrarian community, the bread basket
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  Speaker 2: of Europe, with all the harvesting and grain and agricultural production.
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  Speaker 2: Is there going to be anybody left to do that?
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis, Well, that is one of the big problems,
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  Speaker 2: and that is one of the big problems I have
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  Speaker 2: with both the Western Europeans, in particular with the Biden
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  Speaker 2: administration before and Zelenski himself, because they are not prioritizing
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  Speaker 2: the future of their country, where they could have had
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  Speaker 2: off ramps in course two months into this in April
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. They could have had another off ramp
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  Speaker 2: in June twenty twenty four, and then now this one
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  Speaker 2: here goes on and every time there's an opportunity they
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  Speaker 2: reject it and say no, we're gonna keep fighting, We're
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  Speaker 2: not gonna give up anything, and then they always lose more.
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  Speaker 2: Every time Russia offers a deal, then it's worse the
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  Speaker 2: next time. And I think that worth the point now
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  Speaker 2: to where Russia is just going through the motions diplomatically
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  Speaker 2: and saying sure it will listen to you and talk,
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  Speaker 2: but everything on the ground is continuing to move towards
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  Speaker 2: their final objective of the destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces.
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  Speaker 2: That's more important than the manpower or than the territorial issue.
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  Speaker 2: But the territorial issue is important insofar as the four
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  Speaker 2: oblust that they have, which they have already incorporated into
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  Speaker 2: their constitution. They promise the people they're gonna come, So
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  Speaker 2: I think once they get to those then they have
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  Speaker 2: a chance to actually say we're gonna stop. But if
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  Speaker 2: the other side doesn't stop fighting, even at the border
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  Speaker 2: of those four oblusts, they'll keep going and the Russians
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  Speaker 2: will take even more territory. And at some point there's
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  Speaker 2: just it's not going to be enough men on the
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine side to offer resistance, and there is clearly no
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  Speaker 2: shortage of men on the Russian side. It is eventually
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  Speaker 2: going to be a math problem and the Ukraine side
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  Speaker 2: is going to lose it.
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  Speaker 1: And without men after the war's over, who's going to
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  Speaker 1: run the country properly. It's just a sad state effects, right,
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  Speaker 1: And you know, I just have to observe again. It's
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  Speaker 1: kind of like I said it every week, Daniel Davis
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  Speaker 1: Washern's repeat. We seem to be having the same conversation
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  Speaker 1: over and over again. Europe's are like have their head
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  Speaker 1: somewhere dark and damp. They don't listen, they don't pay
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  Speaker 1: attention to the realities on the ground. They say the
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  Speaker 1: same thing over and over again, and the next week
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  Speaker 1: you and I be saying the same damn thing. Oh
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  Speaker 1: look they're doing it again. It's crazy.
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  Speaker 2: And you know what you had at this, you know,
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  Speaker 2: trying to I don't know why they would do it,
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  Speaker 2: but kind of a celebration that the Ukraine side has
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  Speaker 2: existed through four years of war. That's laudable in one sense,
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  Speaker 2: but it's also condemning in another, because all you've done
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  Speaker 2: by not taking these off ramps is devastate the male
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  Speaker 2: population of Ukraine for the future, as you pointed out.
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  Speaker 2: And then you have Keir Starmer leading the way today
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  Speaker 2: and said we need to get rid of this myth
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  Speaker 2: that Russia is winning the war.
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  Speaker 1: They're not.
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  Speaker 2: And I'm like, what in the world, what.
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  Speaker 1: Kind of planet are you on that you would.
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  Speaker 2: Say that, Because then that's says, let's keep on having
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  Speaker 2: sacrificed the Ukrainian population, they can't win this, and so
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  Speaker 2: to go on with this raw, ross sounding stuff just
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  Speaker 2: condemns more Ukrainians to death and more territory to Russia.
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  Speaker 2: Well done.
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  Speaker 1: Your point is we pivot over to Iran for we
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  Speaker 1: part coming today Daniel Davis and again follow Daniel Davis
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  Speaker 1: as the Daniel Davis Deep Dive, pivoting over to Iran.
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  Speaker 1: I guess you and I you're on record, and I
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  Speaker 1: agree with you. We don't want to We don't want
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  Speaker 1: to start dropping bombs. We don't want to go into
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  Speaker 1: a full on war. It is going to be a bloody,
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  Speaker 1: bloody mess. Nonetheless, we have mass amassed the largest military
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  Speaker 1: force in the region since I guess the Desert Shield
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  Speaker 1: or whichever military operation was the big one, the Iraqi operation.
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  Speaker 1: But Donald Trump keeps saying, and people keep reporting that,
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  Speaker 1: it's like, well, we're only a moment away from dropping bombs.
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  Speaker 1: Only moment away from dropping bombs. Donald Trump says, I'm
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  Speaker 1: you listen, you better negotiate him a drop up. Do
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  Speaker 1: you ever hear any dissent? I mean, again, going back
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  Speaker 1: to the Constitution, I keep harp from the fact that
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  Speaker 1: Congress has the power to declare war. I don't hear
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  Speaker 1: anyone saying, wait a second, you can't declare war. You
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  Speaker 1: have a reaction to that, I mean, does the silence
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  Speaker 1: seem deafening to you, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, According to the recent reporting, there there are two
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  Speaker 2: islands I guess of resistance one, according to The Wall
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  Speaker 2: Street Journal, is led by Vice President J. D. Vance
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  Speaker 2: and Telsea Gabbard, who are saying, don't do this. It's
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  Speaker 2: it's a counter and it's counter to our interest. The
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  Speaker 2: cost would be extremely high. Dan Kine, the chairman of
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  Speaker 2: Joint Chief of Staff, was reported yesterday that he is
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  Speaker 2: warning about the potential long term consequences, although President Trump
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  Speaker 2: dismissed that in a truth Social yesterday afternoon. So who
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  Speaker 2: knows what's true on that? There is Rocanna and a
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  Speaker 2: Republican that I think to either today or tomorrow are
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  Speaker 2: going to put forth a war powers resolution vote to
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  Speaker 2: require Congress to go on record saying that you can't
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  Speaker 2: go forward without this.
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  Speaker 1: I don't.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to have any success, but
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  Speaker 2: at least there's something there. But these are just, you know,
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  Speaker 2: two small islands against an on flood onslaught of those
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  Speaker 2: who are screaming for war on the other hand, and
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  Speaker 2: a lot of them are President Trump's biggest supporters and
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  Speaker 2: backers in the United States. And of course there's also
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  Speaker 2: Israel who's pushing this hard with Benjamin and Yahoo.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Well, before we go to war, there's an
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  Speaker 1: opportunity to negotiate a resolution. Daniel Davis te Lea freeding.
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  Speaker 1: Will Iran capitulate enough to prevent this from happening.
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  Speaker 2: It's not possible. They can't because what they're willing to
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  Speaker 2: capitulate is is kind completely contradictory to what we're demanding
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  Speaker 2: that they do. It's just not even possible right now.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, kind of like Russia Ukraine.
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  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, in a sense it is. The conditions are
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  Speaker 2: a little different, but the reasons are. Bottom line is
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  Speaker 2: the same. Net result is we're asking Iran to do
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  Speaker 2: something they can't do, and so they're offering to do
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: something that we're not asking, and so you have Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I guess in that sense of negotiation wise, it is
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  Speaker 2: similar to that, and it's not going to have an outcome.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis deep Tie, retireal tendor colonel. Follow him on
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. I'll look forward to another
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  Speaker 1: conversation with you, Daniel. I appreciate your straightforward way of
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: viewing these and spreading the information and sharing it with
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  Speaker 1: my listening audience. It's wonderful that you have you as
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a as a feature on my program Sir, Thank.
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  Speaker 2: You very much.
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  Speaker 1: It's an honor for me. Thank you, so take care
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  Speaker 1: my friend. It's eight forty one