Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Chad and Scooch Handicap the Conference Championships

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Chad and Scooch Handicap the Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:10
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites from the Action Network. I am
0:15
Speaker 1: Chad Millman. It is Wednesday of a FC Conference title games. Huge,
0:27
Speaker 1: huge weekend, last weekend, massive weekend. Um. I know this
0:32
Speaker 1: because the Action Network had its biggest day ever. So
0:35
Speaker 1: I am aware that people like to bet on football
0:38
Speaker 1: and there was a lot of interest in the divisional weekend.
0:42
Speaker 1: And guess who's going to join me to talk about
0:44
Speaker 1: it today. You guys are gonna be surprised because it's
0:51
Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scuocci. Yes, that's right, Bob Scucci from New
1:12
Speaker 1: Orleans and all the BOYD gaming books. How you doing,
1:16
Speaker 1: my brother, I'm doing well. How are you well? Remember
1:21
Speaker 1: last week we opened the show talking about how it
1:23
Speaker 1: was going to be the Year of Kindness? Yeah? So uh.
1:28
Speaker 1: I go on Twitter later in the week and I
1:30
Speaker 1: get a tweet from someone saying I wish Chad would
1:34
Speaker 1: just stop with the first twenty minutes and get to
1:36
Speaker 1: the games, and I responded, it's ironic that my rant
1:42
Speaker 1: in the beginning was about the Year of kindness and
1:45
Speaker 1: then this guy a swipe at me in Twitter and
1:51
Speaker 1: then he wrote back, essentially, scooches time is more valuable
1:54
Speaker 1: than that Okay, well you're only being You're only laughing
1:58
Speaker 1: to be polite. No, I think that's funny. You've ripped
2:03
Speaker 1: me enough so that, like when someone else rips you,
2:05
Speaker 1: I get to enjoy it a little bit. That's funny.
2:09
Speaker 1: I feel like we should just have like on a
2:11
Speaker 1: permanent loop. That's scene from Good Fellows where Joe Pesci
2:14
Speaker 1: is like, am I clown? Do? I amuse you? You
2:18
Speaker 1: think I'm funny? Right? Yeah? Yeah, permanent Just just keep
2:22
Speaker 1: running that Matt ford is is mimicking the faces right now,
2:27
Speaker 1: he's he can't. It's not great audio, I'll tell you
2:29
Speaker 1: that much. It's just not um. But boy Scooch. Last weekend,
2:36
Speaker 1: geez Louise, Well yeah, some some really big games, some
2:42
Speaker 1: exciting games. Uh. It was so interesting because you know,
2:47
Speaker 1: everyone had been talking about and I've got a theory
2:49
Speaker 1: on this, and I want to hear your theory. Everyone
2:51
Speaker 1: had been talking about having the previous fifteen postseason games
2:55
Speaker 1: underdogs have been fourteen and one, and so clearly it
2:58
Speaker 1: was going to be the weekend to fade the underdogs.
3:01
Speaker 1: Not that I believe in sort of that past is
3:05
Speaker 1: sort of prologue and that you want to bet against
3:08
Speaker 1: sort of what the past trend has been. But to me,
3:13
Speaker 1: it was really about people were recognizing that trend and
3:17
Speaker 1: now all the money was constantly coming in on the
3:20
Speaker 1: underdogs to the degree that you had to start fading
3:23
Speaker 1: the public a little bit. Um, Did you get that sense?
3:26
Speaker 1: Tell me how you were thinking about the games from
3:28
Speaker 1: a public perception perception point of view before the weekend started. Absolutely,
3:34
Speaker 1: And I've been saying it for many weeks now, not
3:37
Speaker 1: just this year's games, but it's been a recent trend
3:40
Speaker 1: that the general public doesn't just lay the favorites anymore
3:43
Speaker 1: like they used to in years past, and particularly the
3:46
Speaker 1: deeper you get into playoffs are big games when they
3:49
Speaker 1: just feel like there's more value on the underdogs, and
3:52
Speaker 1: we see it in National Championship college basketball, National Championship
3:56
Speaker 1: college football. I mean when you get down to to
4:00
Speaker 1: the end of the season and they figured the teams
4:01
Speaker 1: are that good enough to get there and now they're
4:04
Speaker 1: getting points that the recent trend has been to uh
4:08
Speaker 1: to to take those underdogs, and we're seeing it again
4:11
Speaker 1: this week. But with regards to last week, I did
4:15
Speaker 1: feel that there was gonna be a slight regression from
4:17
Speaker 1: that trend, particularly since there was a couple of upsets
4:21
Speaker 1: in the wild card weekend the week before, and uh,
4:26
Speaker 1: any anytime you get the I mean you just look
4:28
Speaker 1: at the point spreads in last week's games, some really
4:31
Speaker 1: big point spreads compared to the week before, and three
4:34
Speaker 1: out of the four of them covered easily and one
4:36
Speaker 1: of them almost covered as well. Do you know what
4:39
Speaker 1: the greatest feeling in the world is? And right, so
4:45
Speaker 1: so true, But it's another level of being right. It's
4:48
Speaker 1: being right and knowing the game is over before halftime.
4:55
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's a great feeling. So the Patriots charger. Uh,
5:02
Speaker 1: I bet the Patriots and Scooch Roulette, I would you
5:05
Speaker 1: bet the Cowboys? You lost? Um? Who bet the Cowboys?
5:10
Speaker 1: What did you bet the Cowboys? The Eagles? Eagles? Did
5:15
Speaker 1: you bet the Eagles? We had a big Why are
5:18
Speaker 1: you talking about on Scooch Roulette? Yeah? Yeah, we argued
5:22
Speaker 1: about it because you told me how wrong I was
5:24
Speaker 1: on the Eagles defense that ended up holding New Orleans
5:26
Speaker 1: to only twenty points. Well, Matt Ford is looking at
5:29
Speaker 1: you like he thinks you're wrong. All right, maybe you're right,
5:34
Speaker 1: maybe you're right. Either way, I took the Patriots and
5:36
Speaker 1: that's what we're talking about. Me, Oh, you know what,
5:39
Speaker 1: you might be right the closet snap crackle goes the
5:44
Speaker 1: pop Yeah yeah, huh. Anyways back to me, uh the
5:52
Speaker 1: Patriots minus four that cames over by halftime. Not only that,
5:56
Speaker 1: the total, like it was practically over by halftime. So
6:01
Speaker 1: I decided. You know how they keep talking about how
6:05
Speaker 1: gambling is going to increase engagement with the games and
6:10
Speaker 1: that gamblers watch the games more often, um and watch
6:14
Speaker 1: more games and watch the games for longer. So but
6:19
Speaker 1: people always assume it's because they are watching to see
6:22
Speaker 1: the alchemy of the game or whether or not they
6:23
Speaker 1: win their bet. I stuck with that Patriots game for
6:27
Speaker 1: every second of the game because it was just so
6:31
Speaker 1: satisfying to see a win happen like and not have
6:37
Speaker 1: to sweat it, to just watch a game and like
6:41
Speaker 1: like not even think about whether or not it was
6:43
Speaker 1: going to impact my bet, and not even come close
6:46
Speaker 1: to worrying about like if the Chargers scored another touchdown,
6:51
Speaker 1: like you know, in the final minute, they still can't cover, Like,
6:56
Speaker 1: oh my god, it's great. It's a great feeling. It's
7:01
Speaker 1: it's it's it's wonderful. I know that, I know the
7:04
Speaker 1: feeling I didn't feel at that game. I was on
7:06
Speaker 1: the opposite end of that game, but I know the
7:09
Speaker 1: feeling that game was interesting. I was so mad at
7:13
Speaker 1: this because because we opened five and a half on
7:16
Speaker 1: on on the Patriots, and we talked about this last week,
7:19
Speaker 1: how the all the early money was on the Chargers.
7:22
Speaker 1: The line went down to four ton of money on
7:24
Speaker 1: the Chargers. We went down as as low as three
7:27
Speaker 1: and a half, and then most of the books in
7:31
Speaker 1: town were in the same boat. So I'm not gonna
7:33
Speaker 1: just isolate us, but we I think we dropped the ball.
7:36
Speaker 1: And you always want to move the line back to
7:40
Speaker 1: the opening line by taking the same amount of money
7:43
Speaker 1: that got you off of that line. So, in other words,
7:46
Speaker 1: the same amount of money that got us from five
7:48
Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half, we should
7:50
Speaker 1: have moved the line equally up when we started getting
7:53
Speaker 1: New England money, and we didn't do that. We ended
7:55
Speaker 1: up taking a ton of New England money at minus
7:59
Speaker 1: three and a half and minus four on game day.
8:02
Speaker 1: That completely got us off the decision that by kickoff
8:05
Speaker 1: we actually needed the Chargers, so all week we needed
8:08
Speaker 1: to pay Oh yeah, it was horrible, horrible It was
8:11
Speaker 1: one of those instances that you know, you just like
8:12
Speaker 1: to take back and and start all over again. You
8:16
Speaker 1: book it all all week long, needing one team, and
8:19
Speaker 1: then by kickoff you just flip flopped and need the
8:22
Speaker 1: other side. And like you said, we were never in
8:24
Speaker 1: the game and if we need and we tried to.
8:27
Speaker 1: We tried to stay high on the Patriots. We were
8:30
Speaker 1: like a half a point higher than most of the
8:32
Speaker 1: other places. When they were at five, we were at
8:34
Speaker 1: fine five and a half, and when they were at
8:35
Speaker 1: four and a half, we were at five. But again
8:37
Speaker 1: we just weren't quick enough to move it back. We
8:40
Speaker 1: were taking twice as much money on the Patriots to
8:43
Speaker 1: move it a half a point, whereas going back down
8:46
Speaker 1: we we moved it quickly off of some lesser money. Well,
8:52
Speaker 1: let me ask a serious question. It's gonna sound like
8:54
Speaker 1: an obn actually question why did you do that? You're
8:57
Speaker 1: in charge, Like, why are you allowing people to take
9:01
Speaker 1: more money on the Patriots than you allowed them to
9:05
Speaker 1: take on the Chargers. No, I made the mistake, I
9:08
Speaker 1: mean clearly. But but but the thing of it is
9:11
Speaker 1: when you take a couple of big bets, uh, you
9:14
Speaker 1: know you can't. You can't know when they're gonna come
9:18
Speaker 1: in and want, you know, a large bet on the
9:21
Speaker 1: best number. So in other words, you know, we we
9:24
Speaker 1: moved the game from five and a half to four
9:26
Speaker 1: and a half down to four, and then when we
9:27
Speaker 1: go to three and a half and you better that
9:29
Speaker 1: wants to come and lay that price, you can't just
9:32
Speaker 1: say no because it's you know, it's you're getting the
9:35
Speaker 1: best line all week. You have to take the bet.
9:38
Speaker 1: And then I can't go directly to four and a
9:40
Speaker 1: half because then I risk getting middled on four, So
9:42
Speaker 1: I have to go to four, and then another better
9:45
Speaker 1: comes up does the same thing. You know, So you
9:48
Speaker 1: I mean, you you're doing the best you can with it,
9:50
Speaker 1: but uh, sometimes it's sometimes it's just out of your
9:55
Speaker 1: out of your control. Do you think that you got
9:57
Speaker 1: set up? Well, no, not intentionally. I think what happened
10:04
Speaker 1: was is that I think a lot of people saw
10:06
Speaker 1: the weather. I think a lot of the weather had
10:08
Speaker 1: a lot to do with it, which favors the underdog
10:10
Speaker 1: early on, and then once it once they realized that
10:13
Speaker 1: the weather is not going to be an issue, then
10:15
Speaker 1: it goes back up. And we we've seen that a
10:17
Speaker 1: lot before with with totals, and I think that was
10:20
Speaker 1: part of the part of what happened here too, And
10:22
Speaker 1: there was legitimately early in the week. I think a
10:24
Speaker 1: contingency that liked the Chargers, but just the general public
10:28
Speaker 1: is what really killed us on this one. Well because
10:30
Speaker 1: but the public was the Chargers too during the week
10:34
Speaker 1: early on. Yeah, it was just a complete reversal though. Yeah,
10:40
Speaker 1: rarely we see that kind of reversal. I was. I
10:44
Speaker 1: was on the charge. I was on the Patriots from
10:45
Speaker 1: the beginning. It was one of those things just never
10:47
Speaker 1: made sense to me, Like, really, the Patriots two weeks
10:52
Speaker 1: to prepare. They know Tom Brady's achilles heel is the
10:56
Speaker 1: pass rush. It's not like they don't know how to
10:58
Speaker 1: solve that. At home a very short favorite, all of
11:03
Speaker 1: the narrative coming in and the Chargers, it just made
11:06
Speaker 1: no sense. Yeah, it really did. And I didn't understand
11:12
Speaker 1: the move going down to four we and and you
11:15
Speaker 1: and I both said back then that you gotta you
11:17
Speaker 1: have to like the Patriots. I mean at home mine
11:21
Speaker 1: is four and then it goes down to even three
11:23
Speaker 1: and a half. Even better. That's why Tom Brady is,
11:26
Speaker 1: like you think Tom Brady doesn't pay attention to the
11:28
Speaker 1: points Breads. Damn damn straight does that? Tom Brady knows
11:32
Speaker 1: that all the money was coming in on the Chargers
11:34
Speaker 1: last week and the Past were down to three and
11:36
Speaker 1: a half at home. Yeah, that's completely ridiculous. Now on
11:41
Speaker 1: the other side of the coin, we we on the
11:45
Speaker 1: other game that the Colts the Colts Chiefs, kind of
11:48
Speaker 1: the same thing happened with the underdog. They're pound at
11:50
Speaker 1: the underdog and but they never did really come back
11:53
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs and that one. So that was a
11:55
Speaker 1: good game for us, So you at least at least
11:58
Speaker 1: we stayed on the number there. You know, what makes
12:01
Speaker 1: this all the more fascinating is the prospect of live
12:05
Speaker 1: betting because I was, as you know, I love the
12:09
Speaker 1: Saints over the Eagles, and you know, we're three ft
12:13
Speaker 1: away from that potentially being a cover and um, but
12:18
Speaker 1: early on when the Saints were down, I had so
12:21
Speaker 1: much stuff going on in this game, right, it's uh,
12:24
Speaker 1: don't forget I have a Saints taken at eighteen to one,
12:30
Speaker 1: So I think I bet a hundred bucks on it.
12:32
Speaker 1: So if they go to the Super Bowl and they win,
12:35
Speaker 1: I'm win in eighteen hundred bucks. It's not bad. Who
12:37
Speaker 1: doesn't like to win eighteen hundred dollars? Right? Yep? Okay,
12:41
Speaker 1: that's what it confirmed that we're both we both think
12:44
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred dollars is good. Um, so I win. But
12:48
Speaker 1: like before the game, I'm thinking, why don't I hedge
12:52
Speaker 1: a little bit, like why don't I take the Eagles
12:54
Speaker 1: on the money line? Having this conversation with all my
12:57
Speaker 1: friends at the Action Network, and they're like, the Eagles
13:00
Speaker 1: were plus three oh five on the money line. They're like,
13:03
Speaker 1: put a little taste on. Once the game starts, you'll
13:06
Speaker 1: get better odds. And we I just sort of agreed.
13:09
Speaker 1: I went along with it as if, of course, because
13:11
Speaker 1: the Saints are going to start off winning and so
13:13
Speaker 1: it'll go up to five and so I'll get better odds.
13:16
Speaker 1: And of course, like it's Sunday afternoon, mid term start
13:22
Speaker 1: this week for my fifteen year old sweet kid. You know,
13:26
Speaker 1: I love the kid. I think he's amazing, super smart,
13:31
Speaker 1: has some executive function issues, not the best that's sort
13:34
Speaker 1: of getting organized, getting himself together for studying, So we
13:38
Speaker 1: need to stay on him a little bit. And so
13:39
Speaker 1: my wife went out in the afternoon and She's like, listen,
13:43
Speaker 1: you need to make sure Zach studies uh like for
13:48
Speaker 1: these tests and like help him, quiz him whatever. And
13:51
Speaker 1: so at the end of the Patriots game, like I'm
13:55
Speaker 1: so excited. I had been planning all week on like
13:59
Speaker 1: watching the beginning this game, being ready to live bet
14:02
Speaker 1: all this kind of stuff. I start quiz and Zack
14:04
Speaker 1: on his uh English for his English mid term. It
14:09
Speaker 1: takes about half an hour. Game starts. I forget about
14:13
Speaker 1: the live betting. I get back to the couch. Eagles
14:16
Speaker 1: are at fourteen making I'm like, wow, I just looked around.
14:21
Speaker 1: I'm like, what the fund this happen? Did I lost?
14:24
Speaker 1: And like then I'm just like slacking everybody at the
14:27
Speaker 1: Action Network. I'm like, you fuckers, you told me to wait.
14:30
Speaker 1: Now I missed my opportunity, and I'm gonna spend this
14:32
Speaker 1: whole fucking game like like waiting for like waiting for
14:36
Speaker 1: the Saints to come back. I'm trying to find different
14:38
Speaker 1: ways to get out. I'm already on the Saints minus eight.
14:41
Speaker 1: Like I was so bitter, right, and then at one point,
14:44
Speaker 1: like my younger son needed to eat dinner and he
14:49
Speaker 1: was kind of being a dick, and I started yelling
14:52
Speaker 1: at him. And it was all because I was stressed
14:54
Speaker 1: about getting off the Saints bet and not being in
14:57
Speaker 1: the live bet, like to get my to sort hedge
15:00
Speaker 1: on the I might win all of it, all of it.
15:05
Speaker 1: All of it was like I felt it in my stomach,
15:07
Speaker 1: you know that feeling, like you feel it in your stomach,
15:10
Speaker 1: like you're so frustrated with the bet that you're not
15:13
Speaker 1: making or the missed opportunity that you had, that like
15:17
Speaker 1: it's impacting everything else that you're doing. And like I
15:20
Speaker 1: didn't want to say. And even my wife was like,
15:22
Speaker 1: why are you being such a dick, And like even
15:24
Speaker 1: my son was like, you're kind of being an asshole.
15:27
Speaker 1: And I didn't want to be like, well, it's because
15:28
Speaker 1: I got money riding on this game, and like I
15:30
Speaker 1: just didn't want to like admitted him that I was
15:33
Speaker 1: stressed about these bets, so I tried to stay totally
15:36
Speaker 1: totally cool. Like once I got everything together, I ended
15:39
Speaker 1: up getting the Saints at minus a half, uh, and
15:45
Speaker 1: I live bed them. I'm like, fuck it, I'm going
15:47
Speaker 1: all in on the Saints at the Saints minus and
15:49
Speaker 1: a half. So at least I got I got off
15:51
Speaker 1: my minus eight bet Um, I never and then by
15:56
Speaker 1: the time I by the time I could get back
15:58
Speaker 1: to the Eagles on the money line, it was like
16:00
Speaker 1: plus four twenty or something. But at that point I decided,
16:03
Speaker 1: fucking I'm just gonna roll with the Saints, and luckily, yeah,
16:06
Speaker 1: it looked like they had the game in hand. But
16:09
Speaker 1: by that time, yeah, now we It's funny you should
16:12
Speaker 1: mention the live betting because we did more maneuvering with
16:15
Speaker 1: the live betting lines in that game than any other
16:18
Speaker 1: game probably this year. Um the fact that we we
16:21
Speaker 1: had a couple of wins where uh or at least
16:25
Speaker 1: that the Colts game was a big enough win that
16:26
Speaker 1: carried us through most of the weekend. But with all
16:30
Speaker 1: favorites covering going to the Saints, it was either going
16:33
Speaker 1: to be if the Saints cover and that game went over,
16:36
Speaker 1: we would have gotten annihilated. And it was the difference,
16:41
Speaker 1: just a huge, huge swing. There was no middle ground.
16:43
Speaker 1: It wasn't like we were gonna have a decent day
16:46
Speaker 1: or break even. It was either we were going to
16:47
Speaker 1: get annihilated or win based on that New Orleans game.
16:52
Speaker 1: So when we when this, when the Eagles were up
16:54
Speaker 1: fourteen nothing, we were in the opposite position where we
16:57
Speaker 1: were saying, let's not give any more value to the
16:59
Speaker 1: Saints because at one time the line in game betting line,
17:04
Speaker 1: you could have gotten the Saints at plus four and
17:06
Speaker 1: a half when they went down fourteen nothing. And they
17:09
Speaker 1: they were just notorious this year, particularly the last half
17:12
Speaker 1: of the year, for being a slow, slow starting team
17:15
Speaker 1: that look at how many games they scored very few points,
17:18
Speaker 1: single digit points in the first half, and then just
17:20
Speaker 1: came on in the second half. So we weren't going
17:22
Speaker 1: to just make matters worse. We were already going to
17:24
Speaker 1: get annihilated on the Saints. We said, let's not give
17:26
Speaker 1: them any more opportunity, so we tried to favor the
17:29
Speaker 1: Eagles throughout that entire game with the endgame betting lines.
17:33
Speaker 1: It's so I gotta I love the bet I love
17:35
Speaker 1: the live betting, love it. It almost feels like why
17:39
Speaker 1: am I betting pregame? And I've done stories about this
17:41
Speaker 1: too back in the ESPN days, how so many wise
17:44
Speaker 1: guys are really not paying too much attention to the
17:51
Speaker 1: pregame betting because they can like all of their research
17:54
Speaker 1: is still applicable during the live betting, and you get
17:58
Speaker 1: better numbers, and so like, you know, this weekend, I like,
18:02
Speaker 1: I like the Saints, but I don't like three and
18:04
Speaker 1: a half. So I'm thinking, all right, Like, let's say
18:07
Speaker 1: the game starts and I can get the Saints that
18:11
Speaker 1: pick or the Saints that minus three even Uh, I'd
18:16
Speaker 1: rather have that than the hook. I did it a
18:17
Speaker 1: few weeks ago with the Bears, Like I like the
18:19
Speaker 1: Bears all week against the Eagles. Uh, forget about the outcome,
18:22
Speaker 1: but from the practice perspective, I liked him all a
18:25
Speaker 1: week against the Eagles, but I didn't love it at five.
18:28
Speaker 1: I didn't love it at five and a half. And
18:29
Speaker 1: then once the game started it was three three. I
18:31
Speaker 1: got him at minus three, and like, obviously it didn't
18:34
Speaker 1: work out for me, but it came pretty close, and
18:36
Speaker 1: like it was a much better feeling to know I
18:38
Speaker 1: got that much better of a number. Yeah. An indicator
18:43
Speaker 1: that you're right on the money with that analysis is
18:46
Speaker 1: that most operators will limit the amount that you can
18:49
Speaker 1: bet on endgame. So you know, those fifty dollar bets
18:53
Speaker 1: that you're able to get pregame, you're not going to
18:55
Speaker 1: be able to get, uh necessarily from most operators in game.
18:59
Speaker 1: But for for the majority of the betters that bet
19:03
Speaker 1: a lot less than that. It's a great way of
19:07
Speaker 1: kind of seeing a little bit of the game before
19:10
Speaker 1: your you know, form your your opinion that you know
19:13
Speaker 1: you don't have that advantage with betting pregame. Yeah, so
19:16
Speaker 1: how much are you willing to take in game? Each
19:21
Speaker 1: game is a little different on each you know, we
19:25
Speaker 1: you know, we have different profiles for for different betters. Basically,
19:34
Speaker 1: you know, you're not as square as you used to be.
19:37
Speaker 1: I don't know. I might have to I might have
19:39
Speaker 1: to stake factor you a little bit. What does that mean?
19:42
Speaker 1: I think you can complimented me, but I'm not sure,
19:46
Speaker 1: you're not sure. I'd probably give you. I'd probably give
19:52
Speaker 1: you a couple of thousand each each beat you give me,
19:54
Speaker 1: you give me two dimes for every live that. Yeah,
19:57
Speaker 1: I could be fucking dangerous for some one, right. It
20:02
Speaker 1: can end up real quick, It really can quick. That
20:06
Speaker 1: could get ugly fast. Um. The other thing I'm loving
20:09
Speaker 1: right now, and we're gonna talk a little bit about this,
20:11
Speaker 1: uh player props. Oh my god. The last few weeks
20:16
Speaker 1: I have been going crazy on player props just because
20:18
Speaker 1: we do so much coverage of it. And it's so
20:22
Speaker 1: much fun. Like this weekend, I had Melvin Gordon under
20:25
Speaker 1: sixty six and a half yards. I had um Michael
20:30
Speaker 1: Thomas over eighty six and a half yards. Of course,
20:33
Speaker 1: like this is classic betting, right, But one bet I
20:37
Speaker 1: thought about the most I had so Sony Michelle, I
20:40
Speaker 1: had thought about going over sixty one and a half,
20:42
Speaker 1: but like it was minus one twenty and I didn't
20:45
Speaker 1: want to bet it higher than minus one ten. How
20:47
Speaker 1: fucking stupid is that? Because like I end up not
20:51
Speaker 1: making anything when he had a hundred yards in the
20:53
Speaker 1: first half, and like I remembered exactly how many rushing
20:56
Speaker 1: yards he was slated, like with the prop set he
21:00
Speaker 1: is going to have, and I was tracking it the
21:02
Speaker 1: whole game as hard as I was tracking Melvin Gordon
21:04
Speaker 1: in his yard, even though I know bet it's the
21:06
Speaker 1: bet I didn't make that I was regretting the most. Yeah,
21:10
Speaker 1: it does seem it's funny how that works, that sometimes
21:13
Speaker 1: the bets you don't make bother you just as much
21:15
Speaker 1: as a bet you do make and lose. It's funny
21:18
Speaker 1: that you're starting to feel those same kind of things
21:21
Speaker 1: that you know we've we've dealt with for a lot
21:23
Speaker 1: of years. How soon do you think before you guys
21:25
Speaker 1: are really aggressive with player products. Well, it's funny. C
21:29
Speaker 1: ES was last week and I spent the great deal
21:31
Speaker 1: of the week meeting with a lot of companies that
21:35
Speaker 1: have some great, great stuff, really cool stuff. I was
21:38
Speaker 1: at a matter of fact, the NHL game had a
21:42
Speaker 1: chance to meet the commissioner and uh they had a
21:45
Speaker 1: demo booth set up with a lot of in game
21:47
Speaker 1: they were they were demoing that the puck and play
21:50
Speaker 1: at the uh at the T Mobile Arena where you
21:53
Speaker 1: can actually see the speed of the player skating and
21:56
Speaker 1: the speed of the puck and uh so and that's
21:59
Speaker 1: just one sport. But but I mean, you go sport
22:01
Speaker 1: by sport, you you may see hundreds and hundreds of
22:05
Speaker 1: what they call markets, which is basically just a bet type,
22:08
Speaker 1: hundreds of markets on each player each week, all automated.
22:12
Speaker 1: I think the you know, the future is just gonna
22:15
Speaker 1: be uh. The upside is tremendous and I don't think
22:19
Speaker 1: that I don't think there's a limit. And that's what
22:21
Speaker 1: people like you mentioned, you know yourself as one of them, uh,
22:25
Speaker 1: being able to bet on a particular player and make
22:29
Speaker 1: your own point spreads. Like you said, take a basketball
22:32
Speaker 1: player and say, uh, Paul George, how many points are
22:35
Speaker 1: you gonna score? Score this? Uh this game ten eleven, twelve,
22:40
Speaker 1: and you make your own line and you just the
22:43
Speaker 1: odds was just calculated for whatever you want to bet.
22:46
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what's out there, that's the future, scooch.
22:49
Speaker 1: Before we move on, I want to talk about one
22:51
Speaker 1: of my favorite things, which is books. That's right, as
22:54
Speaker 1: you know, as we all know, as everybody who has
22:56
Speaker 1: ever met me knows, I've written seven books, four of
22:59
Speaker 1: them best sellers. It may sound obnoxious because it is,
23:02
Speaker 1: but listen, I'm a huge champion of books. I love
23:06
Speaker 1: writing them because I've written seven of them, I love
23:09
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23:12
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23:16
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23:42
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23:45
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Speaker 1: I O N to five hundred, five hundred listen. That's
25:03
Speaker 1: a long read, but it's worth it because I freaking
25:05
Speaker 1: love books and I want people to listen to books
25:09
Speaker 1: on Audible. Let's get back to the show. You know
25:12
Speaker 1: what I want to do, Scooch, what I want to
25:16
Speaker 1: get into the betting business because it seems like there's
25:20
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunity there. I love the prop that's
25:23
Speaker 1: We've been doing a crapload of coverage of it at
25:25
Speaker 1: Action Network, Like we are doing so much every weekend
25:29
Speaker 1: on NBA player props, on the NFL player props. It's
25:32
Speaker 1: just been so much fun. Um, people should just look
25:35
Speaker 1: into it. Don't go crazy, you know, be responsible, know
25:38
Speaker 1: your limits. But I've been you know, we're about to
25:41
Speaker 1: uh offer player prop tracking in the Action Network app
25:45
Speaker 1: downloaded for free and so then you can start tracking
25:48
Speaker 1: your player prop. That's as well. But the last two
25:50
Speaker 1: NFL weekends I have had as much bet and made
25:54
Speaker 1: as many bets on player props as I have on
25:56
Speaker 1: size and totals um, and there are no They're a
26:00
Speaker 1: nightmare to manage I'll tell you that. You know, obviously
26:03
Speaker 1: we do more for the Super Bowl than any other game,
26:06
Speaker 1: and you really have to have the pipeline in to
26:10
Speaker 1: almost every practice session, every following players around. You know,
26:14
Speaker 1: one one running back twists his ankle, comes up a
26:17
Speaker 1: little you know, uh, you know, maybe just walking down
26:21
Speaker 1: the stairs, twists, twists his ankle, and next thing you know,
26:24
Speaker 1: somebody's pounding the under on the yard. Agin And there's
26:28
Speaker 1: so much to keep track of. We we hated on
26:30
Speaker 1: our side of the counter. So, speaking of keeping track,
26:33
Speaker 1: here's a great story. And you talked about whether earlier
26:35
Speaker 1: in the show. Uh, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting
26:39
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. Uh, there are three point favorites.
26:42
Speaker 1: Full disclosure. I bet the I thought this was there's
26:47
Speaker 1: so many storylines here in my head is going to explode.
26:49
Speaker 1: UM this game. The early lines on this game were
26:55
Speaker 1: Chiefs minus four against the Patriots. When that line opened
26:58
Speaker 1: on Saturday night. Um, you can't really bet it, but
27:01
Speaker 1: that's what sort of books were releasing as the lines
27:04
Speaker 1: against the Patriots and the lines against um, the Chargers
27:07
Speaker 1: what they were going to be, and it was generally
27:09
Speaker 1: four points. So when this game opened officially opened, it
27:12
Speaker 1: was Chiefs minus three and money started coming in and
27:16
Speaker 1: the Patriots and so all of a sudden, I was
27:19
Speaker 1: able to get Chiefs minus three plus one. D um
27:23
Speaker 1: because I know you guys don't want to move the line.
27:25
Speaker 1: You were basically just adjusting the juice. And I'm like,
27:27
Speaker 1: are you kidding me? I'm getting the Chiefs plus money
27:30
Speaker 1: at minus three? That was nuts? What was happening there? Like?
27:34
Speaker 1: What was going on? What were you thinking? Was it
27:35
Speaker 1: all just reacts to how badly the Patriots beat up
27:38
Speaker 1: the Chargers? Uh No, not not really just trying to
27:43
Speaker 1: anticipate where we think the public is going to come
27:45
Speaker 1: in on, because the Chiefs look equally impressive against the
27:48
Speaker 1: Colt So it wasn't that one really looked better than
27:50
Speaker 1: the other in their respective games. UM. I just think
27:54
Speaker 1: if people had the opportunity to take New England uh
27:58
Speaker 1: as an underdog in the big game with all their
28:01
Speaker 1: key personnel basically they're Belichick and Brady and Gronkowski, uh,
28:06
Speaker 1: that that's probably just more value. Uh. And that's just
28:10
Speaker 1: basically the public perception, not necessarily the sharp perception. Um. So,
28:14
Speaker 1: so I think three would be the solid number and
28:17
Speaker 1: let's let the money get us off to three. I
28:19
Speaker 1: can tell you we're closer to going to two and
28:21
Speaker 1: a half than we are going to three and a half.
28:23
Speaker 1: And uh, I mean we've already used the New England
28:27
Speaker 1: to minus fifteen and we're still getting more New England money.
28:30
Speaker 1: So um, I think more people are are surprised at uh,
28:35
Speaker 1: New England's getting getting a full field goal here. I
28:37
Speaker 1: think more people were expecting this to be closer to
28:40
Speaker 1: a pick up game. I'm talking about the average casual fan. Wow,
28:43
Speaker 1: if you go to two and a half, if anybody
28:46
Speaker 1: goes to a half, I might take the Chiefs again. Yeah,
28:49
Speaker 1: so I'm not making that same mistake we made last
28:51
Speaker 1: week where we went down on the Patriots all the
28:54
Speaker 1: way down the three and a half and then let
28:55
Speaker 1: us let's let them get us off the game with
28:58
Speaker 1: just a couple of bets. Uh. This was really interesting too,
29:01
Speaker 1: and this is what I wanted to get to. You
29:02
Speaker 1: mentioned the weather earlier. Uh, and we had a story
29:05
Speaker 1: about this on Action Network dot com. Mark Allant download
29:07
Speaker 1: the free app. You can get that story for free.
29:09
Speaker 1: It's really good. Um, yesterday afternoon, it was Monday afternoon.
29:13
Speaker 1: We're recording this. On Tuesday, Adam Schefter tweeted out that
29:17
Speaker 1: there was gonna be massive temperature drops at Arrowhead this weekend,
29:20
Speaker 1: so it could be as well as ten degrees below
29:22
Speaker 1: zero or as high as two degrees. He tweeted that out.
29:27
Speaker 1: We could not confirm this, but very soon after the
29:32
Speaker 1: total on that game started the drop, it was at
29:34
Speaker 1: fifty seven. Now I think it's at fifty four. Um,
29:38
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Action Network app down letter for free. Uh,
29:42
Speaker 1: and so tell me, like, I'm seeing fifty five now
29:46
Speaker 1: open to fifty nine and a half. Uh. Why did
29:51
Speaker 1: you guys move that line so aggressively? Was because of cheft? Like?
29:54
Speaker 1: How did the news start to travel for that? Yeah,
29:57
Speaker 1: and this is nothing different than what we've been dealing
30:01
Speaker 1: with in these big games in the outdoors for for years.
30:05
Speaker 1: Is that when there's reports of snow or big weather
30:08
Speaker 1: front coming, Uh, the instinct is to just bet it
30:11
Speaker 1: under regardless of whether or not um it actually the
30:15
Speaker 1: weather is as bad as it is anticipated to be.
30:18
Speaker 1: And then the professional betters always have the opportunity that
30:21
Speaker 1: when they see the weather clearing up, they they get
30:24
Speaker 1: off their bets and bet the over and actually have
30:26
Speaker 1: a four point middle doing it. So this is what
30:29
Speaker 1: kind of what we struggle with with with NFL totals.
30:32
Speaker 1: We have UH for for many years, um, and the
30:35
Speaker 1: same often goes for a large points bread uh that
30:38
Speaker 1: you know, if the team is getting more than a
30:40
Speaker 1: touchdown and you see bad weather and you figure a
30:43
Speaker 1: low scoring game, the first inclination is for the professional
30:46
Speaker 1: betters to take the points and then they could always
30:48
Speaker 1: get off the bet later. It's it's kind of like
30:51
Speaker 1: a stock market when you first hear the news of
30:53
Speaker 1: something or the rumors of something, and you go ahead
30:56
Speaker 1: and you you buy the stock on the rumor and
30:59
Speaker 1: then you sell on the news. Right. That's the same
31:02
Speaker 1: kind of principle in sports betting. Um, you always have
31:05
Speaker 1: the opportunity to get off that bet later, but go
31:07
Speaker 1: ahead and grab that number while you can by in
31:10
Speaker 1: the rumors selling the news. Mm hmm. So to me,
31:15
Speaker 1: this looks like an opportunity to go for the over. Yeah.
31:18
Speaker 1: And you know, we actually got caught on this a
31:21
Speaker 1: couple of times. And and kind of another uh kind
31:25
Speaker 1: of mistake that we we made is a couple of
31:28
Speaker 1: games that we let people bet more money on the
31:31
Speaker 1: over at a better number because we moved it probably
31:35
Speaker 1: quicker than we should have. Uh and uh we actually
31:38
Speaker 1: did it on the College National Championship and that wasn't
31:40
Speaker 1: actually off of any weather. But you know, we opened
31:43
Speaker 1: that game sixty uh, went down to fifty seven and
31:47
Speaker 1: a half and actually ended up taking a lot bigger
31:50
Speaker 1: pets at over fifty seven and a half than we
31:52
Speaker 1: did it under sixty. And so another bad book making example.
31:56
Speaker 1: Where do you think the bottom is for this game
32:00
Speaker 1: on the total? I think I could go back down
32:07
Speaker 1: to fifty four right now? It's yeah, I mean it
32:16
Speaker 1: does look like right now the weather is saying that
32:18
Speaker 1: it's going to be about two degrees by game time.
32:24
Speaker 1: So you think it's two degrees by game time? You
32:27
Speaker 1: think the public is just gonna keep coming in on
32:29
Speaker 1: the ounder because it's so called I'm not necessarily should
32:35
Speaker 1: I bet it now or should I wait? Oh, if
32:39
Speaker 1: you see fifty four and a half, you should bet
32:41
Speaker 1: it now? What is gonna come back fifty five? You're
32:46
Speaker 1: taking a gamble there. You may not get the best number,
32:49
Speaker 1: that's what it's called, buddy. By game time, there's gonna
32:55
Speaker 1: be a contingency that's gonna bet this game over, not
32:58
Speaker 1: caring what the weather is. That's what I'm saying. We
33:02
Speaker 1: know the public is going to bet the over, So
33:04
Speaker 1: I got a couple of days before I have to
33:06
Speaker 1: really worry. I can. It's gonna linger around fifty five
33:09
Speaker 1: and it might get back down to fifty four and
33:11
Speaker 1: a half. Mm hm. You know what I'm gonna do.
33:14
Speaker 1: I'm gonna use the Action Network gap. I'm going to
33:16
Speaker 1: set an alert for line movements and I'm gonna see
33:19
Speaker 1: if this line gets down to fifty four and a half.
33:22
Speaker 1: There you go. I am plugging away, but it feels natural,
33:29
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like we're just bringing things
33:31
Speaker 1: up that are inherent in the Action Network appage you
33:33
Speaker 1: can download for free. Uh. Now, this other game, the
33:36
Speaker 1: Saints open three and a half, it's still sitting at
33:40
Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't want that hook. Yeah,
33:47
Speaker 1: we're getting i mean probably out of three to one ratio,
33:51
Speaker 1: we're getting rams bets over over New Orleans. We're very
33:54
Speaker 1: very close to going to three on this game. Um,
33:57
Speaker 1: some big bets on the rams, mostly mostly from recreational betters,
34:01
Speaker 1: not necessarily from uh the sharp handicappers. Now both these
34:06
Speaker 1: actually all four of these teams I mean both teams
34:09
Speaker 1: met each other in the regular season, and um, I
34:13
Speaker 1: forgot which week it was. The Ram Rams played, uh
34:16
Speaker 1: New Orleans, but New Orleans dealt them their first loss
34:19
Speaker 1: of the season with a ten point when that they
34:21
Speaker 1: were in control of that entire game. And we talked
34:24
Speaker 1: about it all the time, how how difficult it is
34:26
Speaker 1: to be the team twice, particularly in a big playoff game.
34:31
Speaker 1: You know that the tendency for the coach, the winning
34:33
Speaker 1: coach in this case the Saints, is to say, Okay,
34:36
Speaker 1: we had a great game plan, it worked, we won.
34:38
Speaker 1: Let's not change anything. So they're they're they're real hesitant
34:42
Speaker 1: to change the game plan, whereas the coach on the
34:44
Speaker 1: losing side said, Okay, this is what didn't work for us,
34:47
Speaker 1: we really need to change this up. So we're gonna
34:49
Speaker 1: get a different look on the Ram side and maybe
34:51
Speaker 1: not necessarily on the on the Saint side. But uh,
34:54
Speaker 1: it's hard to it's hard to think that we're not
34:56
Speaker 1: going to get the same offense we saw the first
34:59
Speaker 1: two times. The first time that these two teams met,
35:02
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are gonna struggle. Um. You know,
35:06
Speaker 1: they may focus on camera, but you've got you've got
35:09
Speaker 1: breeze going over the top and in the flat, and
35:11
Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough for this Rams team to keep
35:13
Speaker 1: up with them. I agree. I mean, look, I want
35:16
Speaker 1: to bet the Saints. I want the Saints to win
35:18
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I want to win my eighteen hundred
35:20
Speaker 1: dollars eighteen hundred dollars, well, my eighteen hundred dollars um.
35:26
Speaker 1: But I think that, uh, I want a better number,
35:30
Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna wait. I'm just gonna wait on it,
35:33
Speaker 1: and I can easily see this being like Rams jump
35:36
Speaker 1: out to an early lead and then I get the
35:39
Speaker 1: Saints at a much better price. Yeah, that's been the
35:43
Speaker 1: trend that, for whatever reason, the Saints team comes out
35:46
Speaker 1: of the gate pretty slow. Between live betting and player props.
35:49
Speaker 1: I'm gonna own a sports book soon. I'm gonna make
35:52
Speaker 1: so much money off you guys. You're working on it.
35:58
Speaker 1: I am bring down the house there you go. What
36:03
Speaker 1: do you think of the total in this one? Well,
36:06
Speaker 1: we tried to make it on the as high as
36:08
Speaker 1: we could. Uhifty seven. I know some places open a
36:11
Speaker 1: little bit lower, but this is another one. I mean, uh,
36:15
Speaker 1: we're just gonna see this, this number go nothing but up.
36:17
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna, if you're looking to bet the over,
36:20
Speaker 1: might as well bet this one now. Really so, I
36:25
Speaker 1: can't see anyone betting this under. There's no there's no
36:28
Speaker 1: reason about this one under there's zero reason to do it.
36:32
Speaker 1: What's your biggest liability for the four teams remaining right now?
36:35
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Los Angeles, New Orleans, New England. Let me guess.
36:39
Speaker 1: Let me guess your biggest liability is going to be
36:42
Speaker 1: Kansas City because they were probably longest before the season began.
36:45
Speaker 1: Maybe New Orleans. Maybe you got suckered into taking some
36:48
Speaker 1: big bets, like from people like me, well steak respect me.
36:53
Speaker 1: What did you say, steak factor. So we actually do
37:00
Speaker 1: pretty well in the futures, um, we we don't get
37:05
Speaker 1: we don't lose on any of the four teams, but
37:07
Speaker 1: we don't do as well on the Saints, only because
37:09
Speaker 1: we opened sports books in Mississippi, particularly an hour away
37:13
Speaker 1: from New Orleans down to Biloxi, and the first bet
37:17
Speaker 1: out of the gate was a thousand dollars. I mean,
37:20
Speaker 1: the very first bet we took was a thousand dollars
37:22
Speaker 1: on the Saints to win the Super Bowl at twelve
37:23
Speaker 1: to one, and that was in August and it's been
37:27
Speaker 1: all Saints since then. So we don't do as well
37:30
Speaker 1: on the Saints, but we don't lose on any of
37:34
Speaker 1: the four teams. I'm glad for you. Hey, you want
37:40
Speaker 1: to play some scoot Roulette? Sure, all right, I'm gonna
37:43
Speaker 1: go first, but we're first. We're gonna play the music.
37:55
Speaker 1: So I want the Kansas City chiefs. Um, but I
38:00
Speaker 1: want him at two and a half because I know
38:02
Speaker 1: what's going there and you're hesitating, and I feel it's
38:05
Speaker 1: unfair to take him at three when I know it's
38:08
Speaker 1: going to be a two and a half. Okay, we'll
38:12
Speaker 1: give you the two and a half because you're gonna
38:13
Speaker 1: go there, right, Yeah, we're going. Are you going now? No?
38:19
Speaker 1: Not right now soon? Sorry? Yeah, I want him at
38:23
Speaker 1: two and a half. I want him if you owe
38:25
Speaker 1: that to me, yeah, for being on it, for being
38:29
Speaker 1: so mean to me over the years. Um, who do
38:33
Speaker 1: you want to your kindness, your kindness give me. I'm
38:38
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Saints, but I want two and
38:40
Speaker 1: a half. Can you give me two and a half.
38:42
Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna get to hal Well I
38:46
Speaker 1: get three? Can I can I just take the best
38:48
Speaker 1: number of the week. All right, I'll give it to you.
38:53
Speaker 1: I'll give it What is the juice? What is the
38:55
Speaker 1: juice on the Saints right now? Well, right now is
39:00
Speaker 1: three and a half, So it's minus twenty on the
39:02
Speaker 1: Rams and even money on the Saints. But it would
39:04
Speaker 1: be like minus three minus twenty or twenty five on
39:09
Speaker 1: the Saints. Uh. I will give it to you. I'll
39:12
Speaker 1: let you buy half a point here, and I'm probably
39:15
Speaker 1: giving you a discount because I bet if I bought
39:17
Speaker 1: half a point right now at a real sports book. Yeah,
39:20
Speaker 1: I was thinking thirty five. Okay, cost me thirty five.
39:26
Speaker 1: That's nice. How we did that for each other. I'm
39:27
Speaker 1: on the Saints too in that game. I'm rooting for you,
39:31
Speaker 1: all right. I'm on the Saints. A couple of winners.
39:35
Speaker 1: Big If the Saints win, I'm going to celebrate with
39:40
Speaker 1: like I don't know a big Mac or you know
39:42
Speaker 1: American Fast or when American Fast Food got you? Are
39:49
Speaker 1: you are you gonna hedge if they if they beat
39:51
Speaker 1: the Rams, or then are you gonna hedge for your
39:53
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred? I gotta figure out like some bets for
40:00
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. This will be a fun proce like experiment,
40:03
Speaker 1: if the Saints get in there. What is the combination
40:06
Speaker 1: of bets I can make that will win me eight
40:10
Speaker 1: without costing me a lot of money? Oh? Yeah, you
40:15
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Mm hmm. That's what I'm gonna
40:19
Speaker 1: work think about first. I could probably do that for
40:23
Speaker 1: the Rams too, Like, what is the you know, what
40:25
Speaker 1: is the combination of bets I can make that will
40:27
Speaker 1: win me? Say nine? Um so putting up a lot
40:32
Speaker 1: without risking without risking a lot. Yeah, I'm going to
40:39
Speaker 1: try that. Screech. I think I just gave him. I
40:40
Speaker 1: think I just assigned myself a story. Yeah, I can
40:45
Speaker 1: do that. Got something to work on. I can do that.
40:47
Speaker 1: I'm the chief content officer. It's my job. Mm hmm.
40:54
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, listen. I want to remind people that if
40:59
Speaker 1: you go to action network dot com slash favorites Action
41:05
Speaker 1: network dot com slash favorites, you can sign up for
41:10
Speaker 1: the free live podcast we are doing on January. We
41:18
Speaker 1: have very few seats left. We uh open it up
41:22
Speaker 1: for Like what do I say, favorites or the favorites, Yeah,
41:24
Speaker 1: I said favorites. Action network dot com slash favorites. Sign
41:30
Speaker 1: up to attend the live podcast of the Favorites. Um,
41:34
Speaker 1: everyone knows that you might have something special planned. Will
41:39
Speaker 1: be me, black Jack Fletcher, JANU PM go sign up.
41:43
Speaker 1: I think there's like maybe fift twenty seats left uh
41:49
Speaker 1: in the sign up. Go check it out. Please do,
41:53
Speaker 1: please check it out. Um that's all I got. That's
41:58
Speaker 1: the podcast for today's Scooch. What do you think did
42:01
Speaker 1: we do? Okay? I think where'd you go? What happened
42:05
Speaker 1: to you? Already left? Then? Alright, then let's play the
42:10
Speaker 1: music and we'll get the hell out of here. Listen
42:13
Speaker 1: to the Favorites on Apple podcast, at radio dot com,
42:17
Speaker 1: Slash Action Network, wherever you can get your podcast. I
42:22
Speaker 1: am Chad Mellman. We are on the air Monday, Wednesday,
42:24
Speaker 1: and Friday. I will be back on Friday with black
42:27
Speaker 1: Jack Fletcher to see who is gonna win our head
42:30
Speaker 1: to head betting matchups. Thanks Everyboday,