Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/19/26: Oil Prices Spike, Devastating JD Townhall, Trump Endorses Bibi, Israeli Settlers Assault Diplomats

Transcript

10/19/26: Oil Prices Spike, Devastating JD Townhall, Trump Endorses Bibi, Israeli Settlers Assault Diplomats · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Had a busy day, don't have time to listen to
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: the show?
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Catch up on Breaking Points with our free daily newsletter.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: You'll get our breakdown of every daily story.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: And a lot of links in your inbox every day.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Head over, breakingpoints.com. You can sign up for the newsletter
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: at the top for free today. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Have an amazing show for everybody today. Where are we at, Crystal?
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Indeed we do. More ships hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Also,
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Egypt has decided to join the fight against the Houthis
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: alongside Saudi Arabia, so a lot to get into there.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: J.D.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Vance with a contentious town hall over on CBS. We
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: will bring you the highlights and the lowlights, mostly lowlights.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Trump is backing Netanyahu officially with the Israeli election just
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: around the corner. This comes as settler terrorists continue to
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: assault journalists and diplomats. Just how much has your family
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: paid for the Iran war? We have got the numbers
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: on that and some of the political fallout. A viral
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: exchange with Abdul El-Sayed is shining an unflattering light on
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: CBS News and Barry Weiss's leadership. And France has erupted
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: along with other European cities. We've got a guest who's
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: going to join us to break down what exactly is
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: happening there. and what we can expect going forward.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, lots of crazy stuff going on in France. Thank
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: you to everybody who has subscribed to the show, breakingpoints.com.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: An update, let's see, we're about 30% of the way there.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Or so.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: We still have plenty of time until the election. As
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: a reminder of our contest, if you are one of
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: those 1,000 people who signs up before the election, you
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: will be luckily tagging along, and you can bring a
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: friend with Ryan Grimm to the Fish Show at MSG
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Premium Subscribers. You also have an incentive, especially to do
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: some gift subscription and others, because two of you will
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: also be able to go, and as in one of
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: our premium subscribers along with a guest. And I'm footing
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the bill for all of us, hence why the number
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: is 1,000. All right, thank you. So make sure you
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: go ahead and sign up. And of course, if you
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: enjoy our work as well, if none of that appeals
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: to you. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to the podcast,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: please share an episode with a friend. It really helps
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: other people find the show. But with all of that,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: let's get to a rock. So let's turn now to Iran,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: put this up here on the screen. Some very interesting
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: attacks that are coming out from what we know in
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf and inside the Strait of Hormuz. On
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the left, you'll see one of the more interesting reports
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: that came out over the weekend. An oil tanker was
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: attacked inside the Persian Gulf, far away from the Strait
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz. A small boat approached it, and then someone
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: fired an RPG against the vessel, as Javier Blas notes.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: That's basically the Somali pirate playbook. It also demonstrates how
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: basically as long as we're at war, we are constantly
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: going to face these types of problems for the entire
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: oil industry. On the right, this view of another kind
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: of interesting one. A tugboat was actually struck by two projectiles, resulting, quote,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: in one minor casualty. This is actually the first time
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: a tugboat was targeted and struck by Iran. Noteworthy that
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the vessel strike location is not in the typical location
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: that is currently used. typically used for a lot of
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: these reports. I mean, what's obviously coming out from all
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: of this is that they are letting it fly against
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: anything that is being used to move oil, whether you're
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: a tugboat, whether you're in the Persian Gulf, wherever you are.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: The other thing that's important to note, let's put this
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: up here on the screen, because this is going to
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: significantly change the way that we all have to talk
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: about this, is that the UK MTO, which is a
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: voluntary reporting system, has predominantly been the way that we
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: are able to keep track of what's being hit and
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: what's not. Now, in the last 96 hours, a lot
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: has changed because as Brett Erickson, again, highly recommend the
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: follow here, he says it has now been 96 hours
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: since they reported a normal vessel being struck. This has
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: been one tugboat and two vessels struck in the Persian Gulf,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: but zero vessels reported struck in the four days transiting Hormuz.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: This flies directly in the face of video that has
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: been published online and not disputed multiple times of different
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: vessels that are disabled or on fire, and multiple reports
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: of vessels that have been struck by different channels, the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: incompatibility of this extraordinary scale of Iranian attacks from 10-1
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to 10-15. It is reasonable to assume, in my opinion,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: that somewhere between three to seven vessels per day are
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: being struck by Iran, regardless of what is being reported
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: then to the UK MTO. It's a voluntary reporting system.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: He goes on to speculate the United States is obviously
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: forcing companies and countries to non-report, and despite no reports
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: publicly confirmed, You would be a fool to believe that
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: this means Iran is not striking vessels on the daily. Remember, Crystal,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: that they also put out this kind of strange statement
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: a couple of days ago where they were like, hey,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: we don't really know everything that's getting struck, so just
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind whenever you read our data. I mean,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: you could kind of read between the lines. I think
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Brett's supposition is not a bad one, which is somebody
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: clearly is like, hey, you know, all these reports of
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: vessels getting struck, this is causing problems for the market.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And even though the entire system is set up to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: be a warning signal for the rest of the industry
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: and to keep public information in our oil markets, why
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: don't we just not have any of that information that's
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: out there, period? Because that's easier for everybody ahead of
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the midterm elections.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Of course. And there's an alliance between the interest of
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: the U.S. empire and the interest of the capitalist class
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: who also want to keep some of this information hidden
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: so that their insurance rates don't skyrocket even higher. And
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: so I'm sure they're happy to have that wink and
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: a nod. Don't worry, we're not going to tell when
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: all of our ships ultimately get hit. But no, we're
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: getting these reports all the time. We're seeing the video evidence.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: So it's clear this is part of what's going on.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: And the other thing you have to say is so
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: much of the U.S. and Israeli strategy has depended on
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: hiding the reality of what has happened in the region.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: There was just recently a Reuters report that again revealed
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: the catastrophic level of damage that was done to our
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: bases throughout the region. This is something that would have
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: been unthinkable going into this war, even I think by
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: people like us who were skeptical of how the US
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: would stack up against Iran. I could not have imagined
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: that our bases would be systematically destroyed, given the advanced
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: level of weaponry that we have, given our troop presence
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: in the region, given how longstanding that presence is, just
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: given the size of our military vis-a-vis Iran and how
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: much money we spend on this thing, you and me
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: and all of us as taxpayers, It is truly quite shocking. So,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: you know, and a lot of their strategy to Sagar
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: comes down to effectively market manipulation, because so much of
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: the warfare is not just the kinetic military warfare, but
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: also the economic warfare. Iran is very determined to make
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: the U.S. pay economically. And so Trump is engaged in
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: all these sorts of market manipulations to try to keep
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: the full cost and full disaster of this war from
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: coming into public view, especially in his favorite metric, which
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: is the stock market. So you could see this as
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: another part of that strategy and tactic from him.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. Let's put A3 up here on the screen. This
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: was on Friday, where Brent oil, as a result largely
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: of many of these reports that were coming out, touched
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: $ 110 a barrel. Let me go ahead and check it
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: as of this morning. Yeah, about $ 108, $ 109 a barrel, roughly. So,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: you know, still very, very high. And of course, it's
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: going to translate to gas prices. Let me see where
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: things are. About $ 4. 30 a gallon. Nationally, diesel remains around
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: $ 6. 31 a gallon, only $ 0. 20 or so off the all-time
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: high and obviously catastrophically high in the long term. Let's
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: also just put, guys, I sent this this morning. This
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: is a travel update from the U.S. State Department that
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: came out overnight. So let's read this carefully. He says,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Americans that are currently in the Middle East should exercise
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: heightened vigilance due to complex security environment. Be aware of
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, travel disruptions. Iranian-supported Houthis have
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: The hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly beyond that
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: immediate area. Americans traveling to or from the Middle East
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: should monitor information about airport and airline operations. Iran and
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: supported groups may target other U.S. interests overseas or at
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: including U.S. businesses and other institutions. I mean, it's pretty
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: impossible to read that. I mean, they've had a lot
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: of these as the Houthi campaign has continued. In some cases,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: they're like, Americans don't, they're like, don't do anything in
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. They're like, especially don't record anything because that
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: would be against Saudi law. And I think, I think
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the real reason why it's coming out is this. Let's
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: put A4 on here on the screen, it does appear
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: now that the Egyptians will now, it's unclear, they're pledging
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: their support to Saudi Arabia after the Houthi attacks. Everyone
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: will recall, we covered it a few weeks ago, the Egyptians,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: the Turks, Pakistanis, and Saudi Arabia signed some sort of
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: a defense pact. And we talked about this with Professor Pate.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: But obviously, one of the noteworthy things about it was
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: that they clearly no longer believed the United States would
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: come to their aid correctly, because we can't. And so
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: they were like, well, they have to look elsewhere. But
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: as many pointed out, you know, a defense pact only
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: means something if you're actually going to do anything. The
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Pakistanis have done nothing. The Turks, I mean, they're calling
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the Iranians, but they're not bombing anybody in Yemen. And
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Saudi is unequivocally, like, actually under attack and in a
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: genuine crisis. It does appear here that the Egyptians, all
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: have now, the defense chiefs, have pledged to support Saudi
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Arabia and have raised the prospect of broader entanglement. The
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: National Defense Council, of course, which Sisi is himself the
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: head of, said in a statement that they would provide
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: all necessary and possible forms of support to defend the kingdom,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: but of course did not specify what that would entail.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Egyptian lawmakers will now have to discuss authorizing Sisi to
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: send forces to Saudi Arabia over the coming days. And
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: on Saturday, he actually called for an emergency session saying
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: that any Egyptian action would be defensive in nature. So
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: it's possible, you know, that this may not involve directly
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: bombing Yemen. They could help them with some missile technology.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, everybody forgets, you know, for all the money
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: we've been given to Israel, we've been given to Egypt, too.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: They're on the side. They got plenty of money and
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: weapons at their disposal. Actually, a a formidable military if
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: they ever wanted to use it. So the question really
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: comes down to what this is going to entail. And
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: of course, what are the Houthis going to say? Will
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the Houthis consider shooting their missiles down to be an
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: act of war against them? Because if it does, I mean,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: this opens up a whole new All you have to
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: do is take a look at a map and anyone
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: want to tell me where Suez Canal is, right? Which
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: has been the primary bypass route out of the Bab
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: al-Mandeb Strait. for the Saudis, despite the fact that they
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: have to put them on smaller tankers. So it does
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: definitely have the capacity to escalate dramatically.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this thing keeps growing and growing and growing. And
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: if anybody is wondering, like, why would Egypt do this? Well,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: guess what? They get a lot of money from us.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: And it would not surprise me, behind the scenes, Trump
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: was like, well, we can't get directly involved in this
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Houthi situation because that's already been a disaster for us.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: But hey, Egypt, how about you get involved? Otherwise, we
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: may not give you all of the aid that we've
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: been giving you. And also... Saudi Arabia, since Sisi has
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: come into power, has been giving them a lot of aid.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: So basically, they're bought off by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: That's why they're getting involved. Meanwhile, you know, the public
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: support for this, I'm sure, is nil. And the public
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: in Egypt has been disgusted with their lack of intervention
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: doing anything. with regard to the genocide in Gaza. So
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: you have all of these very volatile situations with regimes
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: that really don't have legitimacy with their publics, including the
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Saudi regime. By the way, they have their own internal
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: divisions that are effectively papered over with money. Now that
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: that money is not nearly as plentiful, what's going to
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: happen there? So you're just really playing with fire in
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: this entire region as things continue to build and build
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: and build. By the way, with regard to Saudi and
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: their money, They are scheduled to have this what's called
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Davos in the desert in just a few short weeks.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: So they're supposed to decide, I think, today whether or
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: not they're going to ultimately go forward with that. And
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: this is all humiliating for them. Like all of the
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: money they've put to, you know, host events on their
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: soil and also spread around the globe for their sports
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: washing attempt. They're having to pull a lot of that back. And,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: you know, the other thing to keep in mind as
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: part of the petrodollar, what they've done with their oil
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: revenue is then to invest that money into U.S. stocks, bonds, companies,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: treasury bonds, etc., If they have to start pulling some
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: of that back, that's going to have reverberating impacts on
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: us as well. So all of these things are deeply interconnected.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: You think Jamie Dimon's going to be flying in at Riyadh,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: sitting in a conference building? Hell no, absolutely not.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: Come on.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Not happening. The head of Citigroup, what, the Houthis? The Houthis,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: last time I checked, they have an internet connection. So
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: they'll be like, oh, interesting. Davos in the desert, huh?
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Be a real shame if a couple drones had to
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: go over there. And if the Saudis can't defend their
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: own airport, you think they can defend The conference building,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: there's no chance. In my opinion, they'd be fools.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Even if you're coming in on a private jet, you're
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: flying into that airport.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Scary.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, I think that's probably not going to work
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: out for them.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: As of a couple of days, by the way, they
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: are all working from home in the King Abdullah Financial District.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: for good reason, which is that that's where the Saudi
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: wealth fund, the sovereign wealth fund, the stock exchange. I mean,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: you can think about it. It's like a long-held thing
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: for asymmetric war.
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: Like, what do you do?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: You target the financial system. That's why bin Laden targeted
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the Twin Towers, the beating heart of capitalism. It's trying
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: to strike a blow at the heart of the empire.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Let's put A5 on the screen. This one was kind
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: of interesting. This is from Galibaf. And so he says,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf Data Authority is coming to governments, funds,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: and firms in the region. You are kindly advised to
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: give no resources to any AI or data company aiding
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: invasions or killing children. No finance, equity, land, and energy.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Assist them and face our enforcement. You know, there's a
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: lot of different ways that you could read this. I'm assuming...
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: what they are saying is that they are going to target,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: it's like an entity to impose restrictions on countries and
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: companies that would conduct business with people who are giving
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: resources to any company that's aiding the war on Iran. Now,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I don't really know how exactly that would work. I
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: guess it's kind of a answer to the U.S. SWIFT
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: system and to all of their own sanctions. But effectively,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think it's going to be anything real,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: but I think what they're trying to say is if
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: your country assists the United States or any of these
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: companies are making war on the United States, then we
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: will restrict your ships in the Strait of Hormuz on
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: a long-term basis. I think that's what he's trying to say.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: What I read into it is they've already struck a
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: number of data centers, Amazon in particular, in the region,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: maybe others as well. I read this to say, we're
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: going to blow your shit up if you are a collaborationist.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: And we'll use this authority to sort of say- These
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: ones are good and these ones are legitimate targets. That's
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: what I read into that as effectively a threat because
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: they've also been talking about targeting more of the, you know,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: like the Internet cables and the communications infrastructure. They've already
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: targeted some of the data centers, which is, you know,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: cause a real problem for people in the region, also
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: cause a real problem for those companies. also caused real
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: problems for those governments which have been looking to be
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: part of the AI data center build out because they
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: want to diversify away from just the oil economy. So
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: mostly I just took this as a threat.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Very possible. That's how a lot of other people saw
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: it as well. Obviously, a lot of it, what it
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: comes down to is they're trying to make war on
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: the economic pipelines, you know, quite literally in the oil
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: sense and also for the rest of the region. That's
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why the Houthi campaign has been
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: so devastating. To that point, let's put A6 here on
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the screen where, you know, from the Wall Street Journal,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: obviously the lead from CIA and other sources, they say,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Iranian support has helped the Houthis mount the most potent
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: and sophisticated attacks yet, including helping target drone and missiles,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: as well as training, intelligence, and tactical guidance. The assistance
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: has contributed to the Houthi offensive that has produced rapid
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: territorial gains in Yemen and now controls the coastline on
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Basically, what they're saying is, behind
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: the scenes is that they are giving them targeting data,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: help with some of their missile technology. I mean, and
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: in their drones, I think it makes sense because they
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: just battle tested all of these things against the U.S. systems,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: the very same systems that the Saudis are using. And
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: so they are strategic allies. I mean, the Houthi campaign
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: has been dramatically beneficial to Iran. Iran has not had
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: to take a single bombing from the United States in
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: almost in weeks now, really. and yet they still get
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: to have higher oil prices, chaos in the region, and
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: have some sort of strategic defeat on the half of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the Gulf allies, and particularly the House of Saud, which
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: is their main enemy. So if you put all that together,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, it makes a ton of sense. It's very
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: similar to the same proxy wars that the United States
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: fights in the case where we're backing Saudi Arabia, where
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: we're backing the Ukrainians. So All of this is contributing
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: to the chaos that they want. And also, on top
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: of everything, this just goes to our changing nature of
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the globe. This happened very late last night, so we
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: weren't able to put it in the show. I don't
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: know if you saw the Putin summit that he proposed.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: And so that is, I mean, look, in my opinion,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: it's the most honest way to actually do anything, which
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: is the UN and all this is all fake. The
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: big three, we will sit and we will decide the fate.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: And what he proposed, if you don't, understand what I'm
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: saying is he said, we, the United States and President
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Xi will sit down, we will come up to an
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: end to the war in Ukraine. And of course, the
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Europeans and the Ukrainians are all freaking out because they're like, well,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: we're not going to have a seat at the table.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, well, you know, it's like, these are
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: three nuclear armed powers. These are the big three, which
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: are actively engaged either by proxy and or actively in
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: the conflict itself. Trump is desperate to end the war
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: in Ukraine at this point, you know, going after Zelensky
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: easing all... Did you see what he did with Lindsey
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Graham bill? It's so funny. The Lindsey Graham bill, which
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: was passed in Lindsey's name to enable sanctions on Russia,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: he used the bill to waive all the sanctions on Russia.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: So congratulations, Senate. You gave all those extraordinary powers to Trump,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: and he's decided to use them for those purposes. He's
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: desperate to keep the price of oil down and from
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: keeping this thing skyrocketing, in particular with diesel. So sorry,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: you know, Lindsey's legacy. That's what you guys decided to do.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: to use it for. Yeah. There's a little bit of
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: fun irony.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Darlene has already been asked about this.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Didn't have a lot to say about it.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Did she say, what are you talking about?
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that means. Sorry, this isn't my lane.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: I don't really, you know, I'm just new to politics.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: I don't really understand foreign policy.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Treaties aren't, treaties which, or laws which bear my dead
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: brother's name aren't really in my wheelhouse.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: But, yeah, so put A7 back up. This is this
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: article from the Financial Times that really gets into a
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: lot of this interlocking dynamics. Are we sleepwalking into World
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: War III is the question that's being asked here. And,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: you know, effectively— tying together Ukraine war, which look, the
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: summit being proposed here by Russia exposes the fundamental nature
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: of this, which is that this is a proxy war
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: between the US and Russia. That is the way, that
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: is the reason this thing was allowed to continue and
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: pushed to continue is because we thought our leadership, our
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: idiot leadership class thought this would be a great way
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: to weaken Russia. And they've long set Ukraine up as
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: this sort of pawn in a post-Cold War feud with Russia.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: So you've got those dynamics. And then obviously, you know,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: similar players that are involved, whether tangentially or directly in
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: the war with Iran. And then there's all these other
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: conflicts around the world that we pay less attention to.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: But there's link between the UAE and the Horn of
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: Africa and all of that spiraling. Now you've got Saudi
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Arabia and you've got the Houthis that have heated back up.
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: All of these things continue to grow and spread and
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: the linkages and the overlaps between them continue to grow.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: And so the other question they ask here is, you know,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: all these alliances like the NATO alliance specifically, the idea
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: was that this acts as a deterrent because you say
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Article 5 and you make it credible. Hey, if you
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: attack one of us, we're going to come after you.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: And that's supposed to serve as a deterrent effect. But
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: at this point, it's like, well, the U.S. 's weakness
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: has been completely exposed. And Trump doesn't really have interest
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: in these alliances and made that quite clear. So you've
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: got a really volatile situation and a changing world. And
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: so I don't love the framing of sleepwalking into World
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: War Three because I think it denies the very intentional,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: horrific decisions that have been made along the way. But
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: we could very much be. headed in that direction if
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: we're not already there. And, you know, the criteria they
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: lay out here is that there has to be warfare
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: across some of the major economies, major players, and you
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: have to have all of the major world powers involved,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: which at this point they are all tangentially involved. China
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: has really tried to keep themselves out. Now, I do
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: think they are providing some assistance to Iran, but they
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: smartly have looked at global affairs for the past 50
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: years and said, you know, these wars haven't really worked
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: out for these countries. So how about we don't get
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: ourselves involved in these wars? And so far, they have
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: really tried to hold to that.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely. I do think, Jen, I mean, the whole
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: like World War III or not, everybody, because of what
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: happened with the Second World War and the First World War,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: everybody just assumes that the Third World War would look
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: that way. I actually think the opposite because of mutually
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: assured destruction and nuclear weapons. It's actually going to look
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: exactly like it does now. Great armies are very unlikely
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: to take the battlefield against each other and invade each
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: other's territories in the age of thermonuclear warfare and ICBMs. Instead,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: it will look exactly like it does, which is proxy
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: conflict in non-defined treaty areas. And then it comes down
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: to spheres of influence, of interest, of economic systems. I mean,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: that's why when we say a strategic defeat for the
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: United States, for the MAGA coalition, it reminds me a
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: lot of It reminds me a lot of the way
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: that the Germans felt about the First World War. They're like,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: how could we have lost the war if a single
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: foreign soldier never set foot on our territory? And it's like, well,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you're bankrupt. You're starving in the streets. Your army actually
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: did collapse, you know, outside of your borders. And if
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: this continued to come, then yes, you would fail. It's
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: hard for somebody in Topeka, for example, to look beyond
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: just the price of diesel. and say, how have we
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: suffered a strategic defeat? But you and I know, it's like,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the quote, rules-based international order, the law of the sea.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is the reason why your television costs $ 300. Like,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that is the ultimate purpose of the global empire. It's like, well, now,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna look like that anymore. That's why the
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: iPhone Duo $ 2, 400. It's going to be massively expensive. Get
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: used to it. It's probably just going to keep going
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: up in the age of global trade or of the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: decline in overall global trade.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: You just got to hope you can fish one out
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: of the straight over moves and buy it on TikTok live.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: From a pirate. Yeah, unless you've got to connect to
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: some Omani smuggler, you're screwed. And did I order one
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: on day one? Absolutely, I did. Absolutely.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: I know, I want one too.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Oh, you got to do it. Of course, day one customer.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: I'm an Apple fanboy. Anyways, I'll debut it here on
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the show whenever I actually get it. Okay, I think
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: we have a guest standing by, so let's get to him.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Vice President J.D. Vance did a rather contentious town hall
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: over on CBS News, somewhat surprisingly so. We've got a
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: bunch of clips from this that we want to get
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: to because there were quite significant moments. But I wanted
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: to start with this one, which was by far the
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: most brutal.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look.
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: Mr.
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: Vice President, my wife, Master Sergeant Nicole Amer, gave her
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: life on March 1st, 2026. I am damn proud of
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: my wife, as you should be, and the five soldiers
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: that stood next to her that died alongside with her.
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: Excuse me.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Take your time, man. Take your time.
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: There are now six families.
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: Living in a nightmare.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: It is a hard price to pay.
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: Though the Iranian drone was the weapon that killed my wife,
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: there were a lot of mistakes and a lot of
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: fundamental failures that led up to that I believe CBS
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: has reported on that. My wife has told me things
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: before she passed. There are other soldiers that know things
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: that are being quiet about certain aspects of this. There's
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: a failure in the leadership, and I want to know
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: how this administration is going to start holding those leaders
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: accountable for the actions and the deaths of the soldiers
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: that we honor and that we love.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: So Joey, first of all, look, I owe and the
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: whole country owes your family a debt of gratitude that is.
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: Quite literally impossible to repay. I won't pretend that anything
• 25:12
  Speaker 7: that I say is gonna make it better or easier,
• 25:15
  Speaker 7: but I hope it helps a little bit to know
• 25:17
  Speaker 7: that your wife was a precious human being who served
• 25:22
  Speaker 7: her country honorably and I'm never gonna forget about her.
• 25:24
  Speaker 7: I'm never gonna forget this conversation and I wanna continue
• 25:27
  Speaker 7: this conversation offline because.
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: That raises the second point.
• 25:32
  Speaker 7: When you talk about failures that we were implicated, the administration,
• 25:37
  Speaker 7: the Department of War, whoever you want to say, was
• 25:40
  Speaker 7: implicated in, I want to know about that stuff. Because
• 25:43
  Speaker 7: if there were failures, and I don't doubt there were,
• 25:46
  Speaker 7: literally the first time I've heard of this is this conversation.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: If there were failures, this is the first time I'm
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: hearing about this. You are Vice President of the United States.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of the most horrible responses
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I could imagine. Think of all the failures we've covered
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: on this show, and you are supposed to be, you know,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: one of the people in charge who are tracking all
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: of these things. We've covered the way that some of
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: the people, service members who were killed, felt that they
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: were left completely vulnerable to these sorts of attacks. We've
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: covered the fact that many of those who were injured
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: were basically left on their own to try to seek
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: medical care, and the medical care that they received was
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: wildly inadequate. So for you to just say, oh, I
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: have no idea what's going on. I need you to
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: tell me more. I'll look into it. I mean, what
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: a disastrous response.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: It was the second time he's used the, I just
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: heard about that. I mean, what do you even say?
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: It's just a full-blown disaster of a reply. By the way,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: you know, I have the story here. We can put
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: it up here in post-production. Here was the AP that
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: ran a full investigation. This has all been out here
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: for days. This is 12 days ago. On a sunny,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: cloudless morning, AP investigation. where they say soldiers and Gold
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Star families press army leadership after the deadly Iranian drone strike.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: I actually know exactly who that widower was because he
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: has publicly spoken about how his wife had told him, hey,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: we don't have enough protection before she was killed. So
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: that's what makes it so devastating. And she's the one
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: who obviously leaves behind two children along with, I mean,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: one of the other people killed in that attack. I mean,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: he was like 20 years old. And all of their
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: families have brought this to the Pentagon. They've gone to
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the media. They have repeatedly tried to bring this forward.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: And look, first of all, politically, first time I'm hearing
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: about it, nobody is going to accept that because you're
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: literally in the chain of command. You have to have
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: heard of that. But second, this is the bigger problem
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: too of the actual investigations that have been going on
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: where Trump and Hegseth have set a culture of we've
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: done nothing wrong. So there have been no investigations. Remember this.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: In current investigation, the Minab investigation is ready. It's dusted.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: People have read it. I know three people who have
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: read it. Everybody's like, yeah, it was obviously us. And
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: then it goes into some of the details. They're holding
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: it until after the midterms. They don't want to admit anything.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: They don't want to give any Of the ammunition. On
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: this one, you think Donald Trump is going to put
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: his hand up and be like, yeah, I screwed those
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: soldiers and it's the reason that they're dead. It's not acceptable.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: And so that's where with J.D., I'm like, he's screwed.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, and that's the common, the common, you know,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: thing through these is that, and I remember thinking this whenever,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: when things started to really go south for Trump. Remember
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: how much hay they made of Kamala on The View
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: when she couldn't say there's nothing different I could do
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: from Biden. Remember? Remember that? Yeah. How can he answer
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: that question when you have a madman in the White
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: House who if you say a single thing who is
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: separate from what he said, well, he would shred you.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, J.D. can't say, oh, I would have done
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: it differently. He literally, literally cannot do that.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: It's also just let me read a little bit from
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: this report that you pulled up just so people know
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: exactly the issue that we're talking about here. So they
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: say many of the wounded from this attack that that
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: man's wife was killed in told the AP commanders had
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: been warned that this facility, a rectangular building with wooden
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: sides at a working seaport and industrial area south of
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Kuwait City, was particularly vulnerable to. So brutal information here.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: where they were in nearby bunkers. The wounded also would
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: later say their serious injuries were not treated promptly or
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: adequately in the weeks following the attack. So brutal information here.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, if he genuinely has not heard of this,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: that is just unacceptable state of affairs. And if he
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: has heard about it and is just lying and say,
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: oh my God, I had no idea, that is also
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: an unacceptable state of affairs. And then there's a broader
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: political point here, which is, look, this is a very
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: difficult situation. question to field from someone who's just lost
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: their wife and is clearly going through it and has
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: a devastating analysis here of what happened and why his
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: wife is now deceased and did not need to be.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, even putting aside the fact we shouldn't have
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: been in this frigging war to start with, like the
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: immediate failures in this case. But you know what? A
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: talented politician can handle these sorts of questions. You know,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: the first thing you do is just empathize with the
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: man which he tried to do and say that any
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: loss of life is completely unacceptable. And we are looking
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: into those circumstances and we are not going to rest
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: until we ensure that every service member.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: How hard is that?
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Like, that's what you have to do rather than, oh,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: I don't even know. Like, it's not on me. I'm
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: not even aware. I got to talk to you more
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: to find out more. And to your further point, this
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: is a preview of what's to come for him. Because
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: as much as when you're vice president, obviously you can't
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: distance yourself. In 2028, very likely Trump is still going
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: to be around. And you think it's going to go
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: well for you if you start casting aspersions on the
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Lord King Donald Trump? Not a chance. And so all
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: of these things that you were part of are going
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: to be laid at your feet and you're going to
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: have to answer for them. and you are not skilled
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: enough to be able to turn, you know, to be
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: able to flip these things on the interviewer or be
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: able to handle them in a nimble way, it's going
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: to be a total disaster for him. Just all the
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: things he's going to have to personally account for that
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: he was part of under Trump.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: To the extent J.D. has any true, like, great political ability,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: it's in these situations with a CBS News interviewer arguing
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: over some woke shit or some dumb shit, you know,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: like some A Trump investigation. Well, and obviously, you know,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: it worked tremendous to his benefit on the campaign trail.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: That all works.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: But this, where you're in power and you're dealing, like
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: you're saying, with Iran, first I've heard of it, it's unacceptable.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: It's unacceptable. You cannot say that. I mean, even Cheney
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: and others would not have said anything like that in
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: the height of Iraq. So, I mean, that's the problem.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: He's trying to distance himself. Because he's trying to distance himself.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: He knows it's bad. He opposed it. internally, but he
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: has to own it. I mean, and this, I mean,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Trump fucked you. That's really where it all is. I mean,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: he did say later on in the town hall, he
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: may not even run it. Honestly, watching that, I'm like,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I would. He's going to. You
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: have to. I mean, at this point, you have to.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: But, you know, you asked what would Trump have said
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: in this situation? Look, faced with the husband of the
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: dead service member, maybe a different deal. But what he
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: said in the past is like, yeah, but if you
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: look at Vietnam, really, there aren't that many people who
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: are dead and we haven't been there for that long.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: This is really not a big deal. That's been his orientation. So,
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: you know, if he tried to pull that, I don't
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: think it would land very well either. Here's another extraordinary moment.
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: about the Iran war, where he's responding to Abdul Al-Sayed's
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: criticism of that war. And this, I mean, this shocked
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: me as much as anything in terms of what J.D.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Vance had to say in this town hall. Let's take
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: a listen.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: I see what Abdul El-Sayed says about the war in Iran.
• 33:04
  Speaker 7: I see he criticizing decisions that the president has made,
• 33:07
  Speaker 7: the military has made.
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: But fundamentally, we are where we are. And you have to,
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: in my view, I'd like to know.
• 33:13
  Speaker 7: What is Abdul El-Sayed's solution for the problem that we
• 33:17
  Speaker 7: have right now. It's easy to criticize something that happened
• 33:20
  Speaker 7: seven months ago. And the reason why I think Mike
• 33:22
  Speaker 7: Rogers is going to make a great senator is because
• 33:24
  Speaker 7: he's fundamentally.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: A problem solver.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: We are where we are. It's easy to criticize something
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: that happened seven months ago, but what are you going
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: to do about it? That thing that happened seven months
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: ago is the disastrous war that your administration started. And
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: so now he's, oh, you know, it's not fair for
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: you to criticize the disastrous mistake I made. We need
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: you just focused on cleaning up the disastrous mistake that
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: I and our administration made seven months ago. I just, again,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: utterly sort of gobsmacked by this pathetic response.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: You could look at it two ways. This is like,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: this is the best that they got, or that, I mean, honestly,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: that's what I would say. I would say this is
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the best that you got, because I mean, I literally
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: know this man. He's a smart person. I can't even,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: I could have handled that question better. Yeah.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Well, you couldn't have a nuke.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Right. It's like, well, we had to have a nuclear weapon.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: I think this war.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Is beyond retarded, and I could have given a better
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: answer than that. But I mean, this shows the issue
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: of where you are. And I mean, I really think Iran's, Iran's, Sorry,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: too much Trump in my brain. I think Iran destroyed
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Trump's presidency. But I also think it because I know, look,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: things were bad and, you know, things were trending in
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: the wrong direction for Trump. But, you know, we've talked
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: about this with J.D. Here's the main reason that he
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: has to run is at the end of the day,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: every major candidate for American political office is literally one
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: James Comey thing away from the heart, from the American presidency.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: You have no idea what's going to happen. Like, as
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: bad as things look right now, I mean, who knows?
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, Trump, look, Trump could die. Like, he's old, like, literally,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: going into the office. And then who knows? He governs
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: the country well for a year, he could win. You
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: could have, you know, maybe Trump shocks everybody and is
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: silent or something like that for the primary. I don't
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: think that's going to happen. Maybe the Democrats nominate AOC
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: and it becomes a woke one contest and J.D. can
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: do a squeaker and, you know, 271 electoral votes. Like,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: there's no reason not to run, in my opinion, especially
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: if you're this ambitious and you've already put it all
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: out on the line. But we can only look at
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: the things from where they are today. Many of these answers,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: if trends continue, which there's no reason, the current reporting
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: is J.D. himself had told Trump in the Oval Office,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: just so you know, this could go on until the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: end of your presidency, this entire Iran situation. If that
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: remains the case, there's going to be a lot of questions,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: exactly like there should have been back in 2008 in
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: the campaign where McCain also ended up having to answer
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: repeatedly for what happened under the Iraq war. Another example,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: this whole Joe Biden thing, it's his fault about gas prices.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Take a listen.
• 35:57
  Speaker 7: That's actually the biggest reason why gas prices are so
• 36:00
  Speaker 7: high is because when Joe Biden was president, we had
• 36:03
  Speaker 7: about 20% of American refining capacity that went offline. We're
• 36:07
  Speaker 7: slowly bringing that online, but it does take a little
• 36:09
  Speaker 7: bit of time.
• 36:10
  Speaker 8: If I may, Kishan's talking about this increase in gas
• 36:13
  Speaker 8: prices just since you guys took office. It's almost been
• 36:16
  Speaker 8: two years. At a certain point, it becomes your economy,
• 36:18
  Speaker 8: not Joe Biden's economy. Also, back in March, right here
• 36:22
  Speaker 8: in Michigan, you said it was just a temporary blip
• 36:24
  Speaker 8: in gas prices.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: How long is temporary?
• 36:28
  Speaker 7: Well, look, I don't think that when this conflict is over,
• 36:33
  Speaker 7: we are going to see gas prices come down.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: Cold comfort there. When's that going to be over, buddy?
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: Even Tel Aviv Tony's like, come on, man. It's been
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: two years.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: Like, really?
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: Biden?
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Okay. I mean, no one's believing this. No one is
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: believing this. The only people are like the 20% remaining
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: diehard MAGA cultists. They're the only ones. And you will
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: see interviews sometimes with these people where they're like, no,
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: it's the Democrats' fault for the gas prices. Anyone with
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: three working brain cells looking at this can directly tie
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: the huge spike in gas prices to when this disastrous
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: war was launched. It is very, very obvious the connection.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: No one is going to buy your, oh, we decimated
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: the refining capacity. No, it's not that. Trump has been
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: out there trying to blame the Ukraine war more. It's
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: not helping. Ukraine hitting Russian oil facilities is not helping.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: But again, everyone can look. And that is not really
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: absolving him either, because he told us the Ukraine war
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: was going to be over on day one of his presidency.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: But no, it's really clear what's going on here. And so,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: you know, a more able politician could handle these things better.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: But it is an impossible landscape. How do you defend
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: a war that you didn't even support and you know
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: is a disaster and is obviously, like, wildly unpopular among
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: the American people? How do you defend massive gas price
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: increase from said catastrophic war that, by the way, you
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: ran specifically on not starting? It ultimately does end up
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: being an impossible landscape. And speaking of impossible, this one
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: is incredible, too. So he was challenged a couple of
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: times by Tony DeCobol about Trump and the Trump family
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: massive corruption and says that he sees no evidence whatsoever
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: that Donald Trump is engaging in corrupt deals in the
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: White House. Let's take a listen to that.
• 38:23
  Speaker 8: Have you seen anything inside the White House when it
• 38:26
  Speaker 8: comes to corruption that makes you squeamish?
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: You're asking, has.
• 38:30
  Speaker 7: Donald Trump's decision-making been influenced by his business interest? No,
• 38:34
  Speaker 7: I'm asking if you've seen anything. I've never seen anything
• 38:36
  Speaker 7: like that from anybody inside the White House. I've never
• 38:38
  Speaker 7: seen anything like that from the president.
• 38:40
  Speaker 8: The issue that voters see and that gets on their
• 38:43
  Speaker 8: mind and that I hear when I'm out there is
• 38:46
  Speaker 8: the president is making a lot of money off of crypto.
• 38:49
  Speaker 8: His own IRS has barred itself from looking into his
• 38:52
  Speaker 8: tax returns. You have this recent issue with the ambassador
• 38:55
  Speaker 8: to Greece seeming to sell access to the White House.
• 38:58
  Speaker 8: That's why people are concerned. And if there's nothing to hide,
• 39:03
  Speaker 8: you say you've seen nothing.
• 39:05
  Speaker 7: First of all, if somebody's still in access to the
• 39:06
  Speaker 7: White House, that's disgusting and despicable and they should suffer consequences.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: What I'm saying is.
• 39:10
  Speaker 8: That's an isolated incident, though.
• 39:12
  Speaker 7: I want to make those judgments based on the facts
• 39:14
  Speaker 7: and not based on a random news media report that
• 39:16
  Speaker 7: I read.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Fair enough.
• 39:18
  Speaker 8: So when the facts are being investigated, let's say in January,
• 39:22
  Speaker 8: if there's a Democratic-controlled Congress, will you comply and honor subpoenas?
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: Of course. Of course I will. Look, I mean, we
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: follow the law. I follow the law. I'm a law-abiding
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: guy outside of speeding, which.
• 39:35
  Speaker 7: Luckily, thanks to the Secret Service and the generosity of
• 39:37
  Speaker 7: the American people, I don't drive anymore.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: Probably good for the insurance rates in southwestern Ohio.
• 39:42
  Speaker 7: But look, man, I think that I've seen these media
• 39:46
  Speaker 7: reports and I have the same reaction I imagine a
• 39:49
  Speaker 7: lot of people in this room have, which it makes
• 39:51
  Speaker 7: me uneasy when I read about my public officials potentially
• 39:54
  Speaker 7: getting wealthy off of my public trust. And I'm telling
• 39:57
  Speaker 7: you that while yes, DC is a corrupt town, Tony,
• 40:00
  Speaker 7: you know this as well as anybody, Donald Trump, I
• 40:02
  Speaker 7: have not seen a single shred of evidence that he
• 40:05
  Speaker 7: participates or sanctions in that corruption. This guy was a
• 40:08
  Speaker 7: billionaire before he ever got into politics. He made a
• 40:11
  Speaker 7: lot of money before he.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: Got into politics.
• 40:14
  Speaker 7: Would anybody look at what happened to him from 2016
• 40:16
  Speaker 7: to 2021? They tried to throw him in jail for
• 40:18
  Speaker 7: like 900 years and say that Donald Trump has personally
• 40:22
  Speaker 7: enriched himself. You can make all kinds of criticisms of
• 40:24
  Speaker 7: our policies and decisions, but I don't see a single,
• 40:27
  Speaker 7: I've not once seen evidence that Donald Trump has enriched himself.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: That is so unbelievable. I mean, just look at his
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: net worth. Like his net worth has skyrocketed since he
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: got back in office. And it's the vast majority of
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: its soccer comes from his crypto.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Well, also the reason you don't see the evidence because
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: you're not investigating it. So it's a little.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Well, there is that. He's not going to base it on.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Some random news report. Difficult if that's. I mean, look,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: part of this is you have to look at some
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: of the way. The bargain was you attach yourself to Trump.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: And you defend him, and he's the very first senator
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: to endorse him. That's literally why he's the vice president.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: He endorsed him in 2023. He bet that he was
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: going to be the person. He believed that he would
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: become the vice president. He would have massive amounts of influence.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: And ultimately, as with many politicians, you have to just
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: swallow a lot of the other shit that they do.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: It turns out that the other shit here in the
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: corruption angle becomes one of the most potent attacks on
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Trump today. I was just reading. Did you see this story?
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: I think we should talk to Logan about it tomorrow,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: where a Republican-focused group talked to its own voters. And
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: they were like, hey, what's the problem? And they said
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: corruption and billionaires, right, like billionaire oligarchs. And apparently, you know,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Mike Johnson's people are like, oh, shut up. That, you know,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: it's like, oh, I don't know. Trump has literally only
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: had that same appeal for like 10 years now in politics.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: But to the corruption point, his extraordinary corruption, whether it's uninvestigated, legal, illegal, whatever,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: to the eye, a guy becoming filthy rich in office
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: and then dealing out pardons for literal Ponzi scammers while
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: everybody else is getting poorer. What do you want to
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: call it? It's like there's no square around it. It's obvious.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: It's obvious to the naked eye.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: Him, Kushner, Don Jr. They're getting freaking Pentagon contracts.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's preposterous. But it's all the way down
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: the line. You're talking about the top corruption. I mean,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: in some ways, the grossest stuff is the Guilfoyle. It's
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: repulsive to the character.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Politically, yes. Why did you not in that answer immediately
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: when he says, is there anything you've seen that you're
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: squeamish about in the White House? He wasn't even asked
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: directly about Trump. In some ways, this is a much
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: softer question from Tony to Coppola than you could have
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: asked much sharper one more specifically about Trump really drilled
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: down on it. Instead, he asked this broad, like, anything
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: you're squeamish about. Well, you just, Trump just forced Kimberly
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Guilfoyle out over her 100K Amex bill. Yes, I was
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: disgusted to see the reports about Kimberly Guilfoyle allegedly trading Axis.
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: When we saw that, we took action immediately because this
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: is unacceptable to us. Like, it's obviously a bullshit narrative,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: but at least then you're chasing down that rabbit hole. Again,
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: in terms of being politically nimble enough to handle what
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: is going to be a landscaped littered with landmines and
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: from someone who is less friendly to you than Tony DeCoppo, frankly,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: was in this exchange. So, but, you know, there's tons
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: of polling now about how even Republicans see Trump as
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: enriching himself, using the office to enrich himself. Even Republicans
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: feel he is looking more out for his own financial
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: interests and the well-being of the American people. This is
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: just not a narrative that anyone, anyone is going to buy.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: And he goes so hard in the paint. I have
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: not seen a single shred of evidence. Absolutely not. Donald
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Trump would never. Give me a break.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Well, he has to say it because otherwise Trump will
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: turn on him.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is a thing that he knows Trump
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: will be sensitive to. So if he doesn't go hard
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: and if there's any little sense of he's not defending
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: me hard enough, that's going to be a big problem
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: for him.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: Finally, B5. This one is also very noteworthy of where
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: things have to go. You know, when he wants to
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: run for president, he's going to need a shit pot
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: of money. And the tech industry is a big, big
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: part of that. Let's take a listen. B5 on data centers.
• 44:09
  Speaker 9: My family and I live directly across the street from
• 44:12
  Speaker 9: a data center. For years, we had been exposed to
• 44:16
  Speaker 9: the constant noise from this company's daily operations. Being outdoors
• 44:21
  Speaker 9: for any amount of time became unbearable. resulting in our
• 44:25
  Speaker 9: yard becoming a useless patch of grass that we could
• 44:28
  Speaker 9: look at but not enjoy. Opening our windows to let
• 44:32
  Speaker 9: in a breeze became a luxury that we could no
• 44:34
  Speaker 9: longer enjoy. Even with our windows closed, the buzzing could
• 44:39
  Speaker 9: be heard throughout our home, day and night, 24-7. Our
• 44:44
  Speaker 9: children's room faces the data center, and our two small
• 44:48
  Speaker 9: boys had to sleep through this constant noise. It was
• 44:52
  Speaker 9: like having a vacuum in our living room. You claim
• 44:55
  Speaker 9: to care about communities like mine. What are you doing
• 45:00
  Speaker 9: about this problem?
• 45:01
  Speaker 7: I really do care about this, and I care about
• 45:03
  Speaker 7: it not just because, you know, I can tell you,
• 45:06
  Speaker 7: as I'm sure you could tell everybody else, that when
• 45:07
  Speaker 7: you have a three-month-old who's exposed to constant noise, it
• 45:10
  Speaker 7: can be a problem for everybody, especially mom's sleep. And
• 45:12
  Speaker 7: so very mindful of that. And I guess the way
• 45:15
  Speaker 7: that I think about it is data centers can be good.
• 45:19
  Speaker 7: They can also, as in your case, cause real problems.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: This is the issue where the dinners and the tech
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: guys and the money, they need it, right? They have
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: explicitly allied themselves. Not all of tech. That would be
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: too reductive. But a significant portion of the industry, especially
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: the AI people, have explicitly aligned themselves with the Trump administration.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: They literally need Republican governance to continue or they're like shit.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: You know, yeah.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: In the next in the next two or three years
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: for their industry, they're going to shower his campaign with
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of money. I mean, given the background, like
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: he's been friends with a lot of these people for
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: over a decade.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: Taylor is very much responsible in part for his rise.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: And so he's going to be loyal to them. And
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: he has thrown himself in with that world. I mean,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: he himself is involved in that world through his own fund.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: But so, yeah, he's got to please Donald Trump and
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: he's also got to keep these tech titans on board.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's money more than anything else. And even
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: beyond the teal stuff, because this is about Altman. This
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: is about Zuckerberg, like all of these other people who
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: have explicitly aligned. They remember we interviewed, I forget the guy.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: They're some of the number one spenders in American politics today.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: I was actually reviewing campaign finance data over the weekend.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: The sports gambling industry and the AI people are the
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: two of the biggest spenders on an individual level for
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: regulatory purposes, specifically to combat some of the, or at
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: least rig the rules directly in their favor. So this just,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: you know, look, this is where the reality of Trumpism,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: of Trump himself being dramatically unpopular, and then also of
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: technology being the necessary money vehicle, but being politically toxic,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: all of these are ingredients for devastation. Again, though, we
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: can only look right now. People are really only a
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: heartbeat away from the, if anything, if you take away
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: from 2016, anybody can win the damn presidency for literally
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: any reason. It only takes 100,000 votes a couple different ways.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: If it rains in Georgia, somebody else can be president.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: So I think he's going to run. Ultimately, the die
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: is cast. It's like if you lose or if you
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: don't run, it's not like Alyssa Slotkin or these people
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: are going to let you off the hook. It's like
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: you're going to be investigated no matter what, so you
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: might as well go for it. I think that's probably
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen. I agree. Let's get to Israel.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Speaking of negative election consequences, here is Donald Trump near
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: the nadir of his own personal popularity and deciding to
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: use that, though, in a country where he is still
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: dramatically popular. Let's put this up here on the screen.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: An extraordinary message. To the great people of Israel, Bibi
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Netanyahu has been a great warrior, prime minister, and even
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: greater partner for peace in combating the Islamic Republic, death
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: to America, etc. What country can survive when things such
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: as this are allowed to be said? Because eventually they
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: always end up being true. He talks about Iran. It
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: would have been only a question of time until Iran
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: would have put that ominous phrase into effect, but they
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: have been systematically destroyed, both militarily and financially, and unless
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: they change their ways rapidly, we will soon finish the job.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: and I am not inclined to do so. Bibi Netanyahu
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: has been, exactly, he talks about a strong partner, somebody
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: who has stood behind him, strong, brave, and brilliant Bibi.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: He says he is the kind of partner the United
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: States of America is demanding of Israel, a country for
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: which it has done so much. Please let this letter
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: serve to represent my complete and total endorsement of Bibi
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Netanyahu in this upcoming race for reelection as prime minister
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: of Israel. Bibi Netanyahu will never let you down. So
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: all of this comes exactly at the time when Netanyahu
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: himself is in a genuine dogfight for the polls. Obviously,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: don't take prediction markets or any of that. too hard
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: but if you were going to glance at them you
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: know he's not leading actually in any of their uh...
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: elections the polls in the in the the polls she
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: currently show guys in time as doing particularly well but
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: but he also remember this the Israeli system, forming the
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: coalition is part of the difficulty itself. So Netanyahu has
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: been here before from a minority position being able to
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: create some sort of a coalition. Nonetheless, Trump, remember, is
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: very popular in Israel.
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: He's their guy, literally.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Spent more money for them and done more for them
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: than anybody else in Israeli history from an American perspective.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: And Netanyahu is certainly behaving as if this is very impactful.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: Here was his message in English, I'll remind you, about
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: thanking Trump. Let's take a listen.
• 49:53
  Speaker 6: President Trump, my dear friend Donald, I'm so honored and
• 49:59
  Speaker 6: humbled by your extraordinary endorsement. I could say, and that's easy,
• 50:07
  Speaker 6: there's never been greater friend of Israel in the White House,
• 50:11
  Speaker 6: that's an understatement, not by the longest shot. But I
• 50:16
  Speaker 6: think America has been fortunate to have a leader of conviction,
• 50:20
  Speaker 6: of clarity, of courage. Donald, thank you. Thank you for
• 50:24
  Speaker 6: your enduring support. Thank you for your unbelievable leadership. Thank you, friend.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Thank you, friend, your unbelievable leadership. So Trump trying to
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: sway the election in Bibi's favor. And by the way,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: we shouldn't rule out that either of them will restart
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: conflict with Iran just to make sure. that Bibi himself
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: gets elected. Because now that he's down again, it's totally
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: in his own incentive.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Well, and the thing Trump said in that endorsement is
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: very important, which he implies that if Bibi's not in office,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not doing your Iran war anymore. And the Iran
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: war is very popular in Israel. They feel it's very existential.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: They're very unhappy with the state of affairs as they
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: exist right now. So he's basically saying like, look, I
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: will continue doing this Iran war thing that you guys
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: are into if we've got Bibi as the leader. Otherwise,
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: I'm out. Now, whether that's true or not, I doubt
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: is actually true. But whether that's true or not, that's
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: the leverage he's trying to use here. And, you know,
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: we've seen this before. This is not the first international
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: election that he's intervened in. If you look at Argentina,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: Javier Malay's party was set to take a drubbing. And
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: they basically were like, look, we're going to cut off
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Argentina here. If you don't vote for the party that
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: we want to. And it worked. So, yeah, it could
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: definitely upend the election. I will say, again, prediction markets,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: they're not accurate. Take it with whatever. But this hasn't
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: really moved the needle in terms of prediction markets. So
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: at least in terms of how investors and Israelis are
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: processing this, they're not feeling like it's a massive game changer.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: But who knows? And it's also very possible that you
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: end up with a situation where nobody can form a
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: governing coalition. And then you have, you know, which has
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: happened in the past in Israel. They've been kind of
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: in this democratic crisis. We're going to talk to someone
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: from France about the democratic crisis there. There's been a
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: similar thing unfolding in Israel for a variety of reasons.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: So you could end up sort of muddling through and
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: Netanyahu gets to maintain power because neither side is able
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: to fully form a coalition. So that is a possibility
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: as well. I will say I was just looking at
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Twitter and you already have centrists like Neera Tanden who
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: are setting it up as like, oh, it's so important
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: that Netanyahu lose because he's the reason why there's all
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: these problems, why Democrats are so upset with Israel. I'll
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: just read you her tweet. She says this. The political
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: alliance between Trump and Netanyahu and the backhand Netanyahu has
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: given to every Democratic president are driving a lot of
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: the Dem Party's concerns about Israel's actions. No, the genocide
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: is causing a lot of the party concerns, regardless of
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: who is in charge. The people of Israel should understand
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: for their upcoming elections that a reelected Netanyahu is a
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: message to Democrats as well. I am hoping Netanyahu loses
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: both because he's an utterly depraved and disgusting genocidal maniac,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: not that I expect the next person to be better,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: but quite on the contrary. I think there will have
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: to be somewhat of a reckoning then from the liberal
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Zionists that, no, the problem is not just Netanyahu. This
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: is a structural, societal issue. Gadi Eisenkot, the primary rival
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: here of Netanyahu, is the author of the Dahiya Doctrine,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: which is all about, you know, massacring civilians, destroying civilian infrastructure.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: It's named after a suburb of Beirut that they leveled.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: So there's not a lot of— there' s no peaceniks here. that
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: are available here. There's no one here that's committed to
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: a two-state solution whatsoever. That idea is dead and gone.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: And I recommend everyone go back and listen to the
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: interview we did with Trita Parsi about the new security doctrine.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: This is not a Netanyahu security doctrine. This is a
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: new overall Israeli security doctrine. that says, we are putting
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: the democracy part to the side. We are deeply committed
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: to the Jewish ethnostate part of this. That is going
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: to over the long term mean that our partnership with
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: the U.S. is fundamentally unsustainable. There's going to be a break.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: And by the way, our response to this is to
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: believe that every Arab state around us is illegitimate and
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: get on a perma war footing. That's not about this
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: prime minister or the next prime minister. That is their
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: overall societal view and the way the entire architecture is
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: orienting themselves.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Totally agree. And I do think that, you know, if anything,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Netanyahu's loss would be more clarifying because the Iran war
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: would continue. All of their policies in Gaza or the
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: West Bank, maybe on the West Bank, it would be
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: like slightly different. Although, you know, I find it I
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: find it difficult to believe that they would rein them
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: in completely. They wouldn't just they would let them beat.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: But then they would just not initially come.
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: There'd be more fake investigation, more fake hand rigging. That's
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: what you would get.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Exactly. You get a lot of genuflecting, again, in English.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: And then in Hebrew, they'd be like, well, who knows?
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Maybe they were asking for it. Let's go ahead and
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: put C3 up here on the screen. This is from
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Barack Ravid. He says, some of Trump's closest advisors believe
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: the Middle East agenda would fare better if Netanyahu lost
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: and a better, different government was formed. Trump himself is
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: very frustrated with Netanyahu.
• 55:20
  Speaker 6: Yeah, sure.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: In private conversations, Trump blamed Netanyahu for Israel's failures to
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: prevent October 7th. Yeah, we know. Trump called the prime minister, quote,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: his own worst enemy and questioned whether Netanyahu was damaging
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: international reputation. However, he decided to stick with Netanyahu. So
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: that's the Barak Ravid.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like Barak Ravid ass covering of why
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: we got all of these like, oh, he's so upset
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: with Netanyahu. Oh, he's so frustrated. Oh, he's so disgusted.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Blah, blah, blah.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Oh, but he backed him unequivocally for reelection.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: So joke.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Last thing here was flagged by our friend Trita Parsi.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: Let's put this up here on the screen. This is
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, where he said they
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: are ready to strike Iran with full force and then
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: targeting an energy infrastructure is critical to setting them back
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: 40 years to the age of darkness and to the
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: stone age, to set back Iran as state several decades
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: in order to establish a far more favorable regional balance.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: And so as Trita there points out, this is bigger problem,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: both obviously for the Iranian monarchists who are like, oh,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: this is going to be So amazing. But big picture,
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: this remains a security posture of Israel. And in particular, remember,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: I would not put it past Netanyahu. If he is
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: genuinely losing, if he believes he's losing, then some sort
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: of attack, something, I think is very likely to come.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: Every corruption trial, he goes and bombs something. Yeah, absolutely. Okay,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: so maybe it's not Iran. Maybe he'll bomb Yemen without
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: MBS asking. Maybe he'll go bomb Lebanon again. I don't know,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: but he's going to do something. I certainly would not
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: put it past him. Okay, let's get to the second
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: part here. We also wanted to return and take a
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: look at this beating of a Washington Post journalist while
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: on photojournalism assignment in the West Bank. You guys covered
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: the initial footage on Friday. However, some of the more
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: details that have come out are genuinely shocking. Let's put
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: this up here. on the screen. So the initial response
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: from the prime minister of Israel's office, this is so crazy.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: They said, the facts surrounding the confrontation during which the
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: journalist was allegedly assaulted remain unclear and are under investigation.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: We unequivocally condemn violence against anyone those responsible held accountable.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: But serious questions remain. Reports indicate some 200 Arabs and
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: far-left activists confronted approximately 40 Israeli youths. Footage shows masked
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: individuals on both sides hurling objects amid reports of fireworks
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: fired at Jewish youth. Other footage appears to show Levine
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: knocked down and immediately helped to her feet by the
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: same individual. The investigation must establish the fact we will
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: not allow disputed incidents to be exploited to demonize the
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of law-abiding Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: And this facts must determine the conclusion, not the headlines. AKA,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: she was asking for it. And actually, even though she
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: was asking for it, the guy who pushed her over
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: actually helped her back up. And so that's why this
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: was all okay. So then Mike Huckabee, let's put his
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: statement up here. The U.S. ambassador initially, his response now, yesterday,
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Heidi Levine suffered serious injuries from a vicious and cowardly attack.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: Heidi is a U.S. citizen, clear ideas of journalists, details
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: of who are under investigation, but those attacked unarmed reporter
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: should spend years in prison. We have called for a
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: full investigation and arrest. Attacking a female photographer is despicable
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: act of terror carried out by mass cowards, dishonorable act
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: of senseless violence. Noteworthy, he does not. name the settlers
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: actually there. Then we have Marco Rubio. Let's put a
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: C7 here on the screen. He says, first, obviously we've
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: seen the video. We've seen the media reporting. We have
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: a process of handling these things. It turns out to
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: be a pure what it was. You know, we have
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: ways of communicating that to the Israelis about how we
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: expect what we would expect them to prevent them from
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: happening in the future. What does that even mean? The
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: president doesn't want to see a crisis in the West Bank.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: We don't need that right now. Israel doesn't need that
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: right now. And so that's where we are. That's where
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: our State Department and our ambassador initially speak up to
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: this ridiculous. statement there by the Israelis. I will say
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: it does appear this morning that some arrests have been
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: made by the Israelis. Take that for what you will.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: We'll track where they go on trial.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is really astonishing. This is a Washington
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: Post American journalist, Jewish, by the way. Not that it
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: should matter, but Jewish, by the way. We watched the video, unfortunately,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: I wish I didn't see it, of this middle-aged woman
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: wearing a press vest being beaten within an inch of
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: her life. She sustained very severe injuries when Jasper Nathaniel
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: was trying to rescue her and get her to run
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: and move. She said, I can't, I can't, just let
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: me die. Like, that's how severe this is. And they
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: have the gall to put out this statement trying to
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: blame her, again, middle-aged woman wearing a press vest. For
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: the attack and, oh, we have to wait for the
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: facts to come. No, we all saw the video. We
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: saw that, and she had to be rushed to the hospital.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: She had fingers broken, broken rib, multiple broken vertebrae, lacerations
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: across her body. They think that she was stabbed. And
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: we're supposed to believe, oh, it was just a mistake.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: She just stumbled and she was helped up by a settler. Like,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: we saw the video. And this is really... To my understanding,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: this is a new tactic, especially when you're talking about, again,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: an American journalist that they OK, they issue some words of, oh,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: we don't support this, but maybe it's her fault. And
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: I think they did something very similar to with we
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: just had these European diplomats who were there as well,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: this delegation from Europe as well. that was beaten by
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: these settler terrorists. And they did something very similar. Oh,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: they were asking for it. They shouldn't have been there
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: in the first place.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. And again, as of this morning, they said,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: I'm just reading the details, 10 people were arrested in
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: the West Bank, all in separate incidents, in addition to
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: the assault on European diplomats. Oh, actually, I totally skipped
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: that one over. C8, let's put this up here on
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: the screen. A bunch of European diplomats were actually beaten,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: savagely beaten by many settlers. Can you imagine this? You know,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: who tolerates this behavior from any other state in the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: alleged West? I mean, it's impossible to even imagine. So
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: you had a bunch of European diplomats there. I mean,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: this guy's wearing the French sash there. And clearly identified.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: And they're just beating the shit out of him. And yeah,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: just don't care. The Israeli authorities said that some people
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: were arrested in Operation Olive Leaf. Border Patrol and others
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: were entered, several aspects, items linking the suspects were seized,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: along with several vehicles. We'll see, you know, whether these
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: people are taken into account. I mean, the reason why
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: this is so crazy is that the only reason any
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: of this is happening, as you and I know, is
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: that she is a white woman who happens to be
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a U.S. citizen. Like, that's it. And the same with
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: these European diplomats. If these were, like, anybody, literally anybody else,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: they wouldn't care. They would just continue to give them
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: weapons and support. But that's the policy. By the way,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: not just of us, of the whole West. That's what's
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: so crazy about it. Where are these countries? You know
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: they're not saying anything? It's crazy. Yeah, it is.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, they are completely out of control. They know
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: they can act with impunity. They know there will be
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: no consequences. And so things that used to... have at
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: least some impact. That's why you have people in Israel.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: You have a small group of activists in Israel who
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: will provide what they call protective presence, where they think,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: if I'm there as a Jewish Israeli alongside the Palestinians,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: maybe they'll be able to do their olive harvest. and
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: not be attacked. These things used to be more effective.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: But now that you have, you know, a completely psychotic
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: Israeli regime and you have absolute impunity and no accountability
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: from the U.S. government, no fear that there's going to
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: be any sort of consequences from the American government, they
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: know it doesn't matter if you're French, you're American, doesn't matter.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: We can do what we want and we're going to
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: get away with it. And so if they behave this
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: way on camera with an American journalist wearing a press vest,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: Imagine what they're doing, Palestinians, every single day. It's not
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: caught on camera. That is not the subject of global
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: international outrage that Mike Huckabee doesn't bother to tweet about.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: Just imagine what their lives are like having to live
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: next to these settler terrorists.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Yep, exactly. All right, let's get to Econ.