Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Is Friday really a make or break day for the stock market?
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- 1:07Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstraw.
- 1:12Speaker 2: Chuck Mike Zucker with the today and as we kick
- 1:17Speaker 2: things off, we got a little bit of right on
- 1:20Speaker 2: the board. But let's not all freak out about it.
- 1:22Speaker 2: The SMP's down thirteen points about a quarter percent. Dow
- 1:26Speaker 2: is off twelve points. It's not even a tenth of
- 1:29Speaker 2: a percent. The NASDAK composite is off sixty three points
- 1:35Speaker 2: about a quarter percent. Again, just not not anything of note.
- 1:38Speaker 2: I don't think there's anything huge moving in markets right now.
- 1:42Speaker 2: Tenure Treasury is up four point four basis points to
- 1:45Speaker 2: four point one pH two percent. Dollar Index down another
- 1:49Speaker 2: point oh four percent to ninety eight point seven to six.
- 1:53Speaker 2: We got gold up four to thirty and ounce to
- 1:55Speaker 2: forty two thirty six and eighty cents. Crude oil is
- 1:59Speaker 2: uh see, where's that puppy today? Fifty nine to fifty
- 2:02Speaker 2: a barrel, up fifty six cents a barrel. I will
- 2:06Speaker 2: point out, by the way, I don't know, Mike, have
- 2:11Speaker 2: you been paying attention to what's been going on on
- 2:13Speaker 2: the net gas front recently?
- 2:15Speaker 1: No?
- 2:17Speaker 2: So that gas yesterday clear the five dollars per million
- 2:22Speaker 2: BTUs for the first time since twenty twenty two. To
- 2:27Speaker 2: put this in perspective, at this time last year that
- 2:32Speaker 2: gas was trading at about three ten and so at
- 2:35Speaker 2: five it's up sixty six percent in the span of
- 2:39Speaker 2: a year, most of this in the last month or so.
- 2:42Speaker 2: Why this matters if it were to stay in this range, Mike,
- 2:45Speaker 2: what is the single heaviest input for power generation in
- 2:50Speaker 2: the United States?
- 2:51Speaker 3: That gas?
- 2:53Speaker 2: So those of you hoping for lower electricity prices next year,
- 2:56Speaker 2: if this price stays where it is could get a
- 2:59Speaker 2: little bit of a it might not be very good
- 3:03Speaker 2: for us on the electricity price side if net gas
- 3:06Speaker 2: prices stay in this five dollar range. I have no
- 3:10Speaker 2: idea if they will or won't. Ultimately, net gas prices
- 3:13Speaker 2: are a function of how much do you produce, largely
- 3:17Speaker 2: through fracking and things like that, which again, new wells
- 3:21Speaker 2: are declining right now because with oil prices so low,
- 3:25Speaker 2: you don't have an incentive to drill for oil, and
- 3:27Speaker 2: most net gas produced in the US is a byproduct
- 3:30Speaker 2: of fracking and things like that. The other piece is
- 3:34Speaker 2: the demand side, Mike. Do you know how cold it's
- 3:36Speaker 2: going to be this winter? Very well? Like relative to No,
- 3:42Speaker 2: I have no idea. No, no, I'm not a weatherman.
- 3:44Speaker 3: You know it's it's not Even if you were, I
- 3:46Speaker 3: don't think you would know how cold the weather is
- 3:48Speaker 3: going to be this.
- 3:48Speaker 2: Listen, let's not disparage our weather friends.
- 3:51Speaker 3: I'm not disparaging They don't know what the weather is
- 3:53Speaker 3: going to be three months from now.
- 3:54Speaker 2: They do, They probably don't even they say they don't.
- 3:59Speaker 2: But again, what weather wethermenu an Economists share an awful
- 4:01Speaker 2: lot because we're trying to make forecast based on imperfect
- 4:03Speaker 2: data that's always changing. And so I always defend our
- 4:07Speaker 2: brethren in meteorology because they've got a tough job.
- 4:11Speaker 3: It's not easy.
- 4:13Speaker 2: So in any case, you got mat gas prices that
- 4:15Speaker 2: are moving up here, and that bear is watching just
- 4:18Speaker 2: in the event that they stay in this range. Okay, Barons,
- 4:24Speaker 2: I love the Tucker really puts this in. He just knows,
- 4:28Speaker 2: he just knows it's going to get a rise out
- 4:31Speaker 2: of me. Why Friday is make or break for the
- 4:34Speaker 2: stock market? Was this one of my festivest And in
- 4:37Speaker 2: the first two sentences, the stock market isn't really doing
- 4:40Speaker 2: much of anything. Now Friday will set its true direction. Uh,
- 4:45Speaker 2: why the heck does Friday matter for the stock market?
- 4:48Speaker 3: Oh? Also expect big moves in all of these stocks
- 4:52Speaker 3: on Friday.
- 4:53Speaker 2: Ooh, I'm intrigued. Tell me more, Michael. Why why is Friday?
- 4:59Speaker 2: Which Friday's to it is?
- 5:01Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 5:01Speaker 2: Why is December fifth the most important day of the
- 5:04Speaker 2: year for the stock market?
- 5:05Speaker 3: First of all, it is not, oh, very clearly not
- 5:09Speaker 3: important to day for the stock market. You will have
- 5:12Speaker 3: an inflation reading. Oh, is probably going to surprise nobody.
- 5:17Speaker 2: Is it like new inflation data?
- 5:20Speaker 3: No, it's old.
- 5:21Speaker 2: When's it from Mike? Uh?
- 5:23Speaker 3: Like September?
- 5:25Speaker 2: Oh, it's Is anyone going to make any investment decisions
- 5:28Speaker 2: based on September inflation data?
- 5:30Speaker 3: No?
- 5:31Speaker 2: No, no, So it's useless. Like I just I really
- 5:38Speaker 2: struggle with uh with pieces like this again, that just
- 5:42Speaker 2: I don't think even accurately capture you know, whether this
- 5:47Speaker 2: inflation reading is important or not, which the answer is,
- 5:49Speaker 2: it's not.
- 5:49Speaker 3: Like I haven't read much worse clickbait this week. This
- 5:53Speaker 3: might be clickbait of the week.
- 5:55Speaker 2: What inflation was three months ago is not relevant to
- 5:59Speaker 2: Fed policy today. It is not going to have an
- 6:02Speaker 2: impact on the FED meeting next week. And that's all
- 6:06Speaker 2: I have to.
- 6:06Speaker 3: Say about that. What has to happen in markets for
- 6:10Speaker 3: this story to be proven true tomorrow, I would say
- 6:13Speaker 3: to you that you need to have a greater than
- 6:16Speaker 3: one and a half percent swing in equity markets one
- 6:19Speaker 3: direction or another tomorrow for this story to be even
- 6:22Speaker 3: close to the truth.
- 6:25Speaker 2: I mean, let's.
- 6:28Speaker 3: With no other announcements, right.
- 6:31Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to be related to inflation. Yeah,
- 6:33Speaker 2: and here's why, Like you look at, here's the thing
- 6:37Speaker 2: about PCE inflation. All right, I'm gonna tell everyone the
- 6:41Speaker 2: truth about pc inflation.
- 6:43Speaker 3: So huddle up, Okay.
- 6:46Speaker 2: Everyone knows what PCE inflation is going to be before
- 6:49Speaker 2: it's released. And it's not because anyone has any inside information.
- 6:53Speaker 2: It's because all of the big investment banks in their
- 6:57Speaker 2: inflation teams have gotten so good at extrapolating the inputs
- 7:03Speaker 2: from CPI and PPI that we know basically within like
- 7:09Speaker 2: a couple hundredths of a percentage point where the PCE
- 7:14Speaker 2: reading is going to come in. It doesn't surprise anyone
- 7:18Speaker 2: when it's released anymore because the banks have all gotten
- 7:21Speaker 2: really good at predicting it. And so even though PCE
- 7:25Speaker 2: is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, all other inflation
- 7:29Speaker 2: measures are just sparkling inflation. They're not the Champagne of inflation.
- 7:33Speaker 2: Even though the PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation method,
- 7:38Speaker 2: it's not something that investors get surprised by at this
- 7:42Speaker 2: point because they've gotten so good at predicting it. It's
- 7:45Speaker 2: one of the least exciting reports released every month.
- 7:48Speaker 3: Yeah, this is going to surprise nobody, and if markets
- 7:52Speaker 3: move tomorrow won't be because of it.
- 7:54Speaker 2: No. No, the only way that you could get, you know,
- 7:58Speaker 2: the market moving, is if there was a huge surprise,
- 8:00Speaker 2: but there just aren't. Like it's you're not gonna get
- 8:03Speaker 2: inflation printing like six percent for the month or negative
- 8:06Speaker 2: two percent for the month.
- 8:07Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 8:09Speaker 2: So yeah, I I appreciate Tucker getting this in there
- 8:13Speaker 2: because it's, uh, it's it's nice to see him, you know,
- 8:18Speaker 2: doing what's important, just calling out clickbait. It is well
- 8:23Speaker 2: and it gets us excited too.
- 8:25Speaker 3: It does chuck in the first time. We were talking
- 8:27Speaker 3: about the job market and I want to return there.
- 8:29Speaker 3: We got a weekly job as claims number that showed
- 8:32Speaker 3: at least last week, there weren't a whole lot of
- 8:34Speaker 3: new filings for unemployment, but we described the labor market
- 8:37Speaker 3: as generally weak and no matter which way you measure it.
- 8:41Speaker 3: The unemployment rate is up over the last three years,
- 8:43Speaker 3: the pace of hiring is down, the ratio of unemployed
- 8:49Speaker 3: job openings is not as strong as it was a
- 8:51Speaker 3: few years ago. So we concluded that's the case. We
- 8:54Speaker 3: also called some data from Challenger Gray and Christmas quote crap,
- 8:58Speaker 3: which I'm sure we'll take some crap. Can we explain
- 9:02Speaker 3: why we feel this way because Challenger, Gray and Christmas
- 9:05Speaker 3: is reporting that the layoff announcements in twenty twenty five
- 9:08Speaker 3: are the worst we've seen since twenty twenty and on
- 9:10Speaker 3: the surface, that would make me really scared about my job.
- 9:15Speaker 2: So here's why I believe that the numbers from Challenger,
- 9:19Speaker 2: Gray and Christmas are crap. It's not because they actually
- 9:24Speaker 2: have bad data. They have good data. I'm sure they collect,
- 9:27Speaker 2: you know, really good data on layoff announcements. The piece
- 9:32Speaker 2: that was on CNBC this morning said it was something
- 9:34Speaker 2: along the lines of, hey, there have been you know,
- 9:36Speaker 2: one point one million announced layoffs this year. It's the
- 9:39Speaker 2: highest since year whatever. So like you get the headlines
- 9:42Speaker 2: that come out off of it, Mike, in a given month,
- 9:46Speaker 2: there are more than a million layoffs in the United States,
- 9:50Speaker 2: Like they're just there are, Like, if you look at it,
- 9:52Speaker 2: there's one hundred and sixty million people employed in the
- 9:55Speaker 2: United States right now, and when we look at the
- 9:59Speaker 2: level of labor turnover, okay, and specifically, I'm going to
- 10:04Speaker 2: pull the data right from the Job Openings and Labor
- 10:07Speaker 2: Turnover Survey Report, the JOLTS Report, which we get each
- 10:10Speaker 2: month from the federal government, and what the JOLTS rate says,
- 10:15Speaker 2: the JOLTS rate for layoffs, I'm looking at it right here.
- 10:17Speaker 2: It's not quits, it's not hires. It's specifically, is us
- 10:20Speaker 2: layoffs and discharges. It's one point one percent, which means
- 10:25Speaker 2: that in a population of one hundred and sixty million people,
- 10:29Speaker 2: you are having about one point seven million layoffs and
- 10:33Speaker 2: discharges on a monthly basis. The one point one million
- 10:37Speaker 2: in announced layoffs that are captured by Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
- 10:42Speaker 2: If we were to believe that this has some extrapolation value, okay,
- 10:47Speaker 2: then what you would see is, oh, because these you know,
- 10:50Speaker 2: announced layoffs have gone up, layoffs across the broader employment
- 10:55Speaker 2: market must have gone up as well. And in fact,
- 10:58Speaker 2: that's not what we're seeing because when we actually look
- 11:01Speaker 2: at the layoffs and discharges rate. It's been basically at
- 11:04Speaker 2: one point one percent for the last four and a
- 11:08Speaker 2: half years now, since March of twenty one. That's why
- 11:13Speaker 2: I call that data crap is because it's not predictive
- 11:17Speaker 2: in any way, shape or form to the actual larger,
- 11:21Speaker 2: broader data that is both measured on a regular basis
- 11:26Speaker 2: and then used to inform policy, Like the Federal Reserve
- 11:30Speaker 2: does not look at the Challenger, Gray and Christmas data
- 11:33Speaker 2: because it's useless.
- 11:36Speaker 3: It's useful if your company happens to make a layoff
- 11:41Speaker 3: announcement and you missed it. Other than that, I don't
- 11:44Speaker 3: find it useful.
- 11:44Speaker 2: Which again, if you missed it, it means that you're
- 11:46Speaker 2: still employed, right because like you know, so, I just
- 11:54Speaker 2: I don't think there's a viable signal there. Historically it
- 11:59Speaker 2: does have a correlation with continuing unemployment claims, but even
- 12:06Speaker 2: there it's it's like tenuous and bestil like not every
- 12:09Speaker 2: cycle sees it through. It's it's not a one to
- 12:11Speaker 2: one thing. There's a divergence in a number of business cycles.
- 12:15Speaker 2: And so it's just not predictive of the actual economic
- 12:20Speaker 2: data that's used to make policy. And so that's why
- 12:24Speaker 2: I call it crap. It's not because, like Challenger Grand
- 12:26Speaker 2: Christmas is doing a bad job collecting or publishing it.
- 12:29Speaker 2: It's just that it's not useful in markets economic forecasting.
- 12:33Speaker 3: All right, there's our rant of the day, quick break,
- 12:35Speaker 3: Ted Rossman from Bankreage joining us for holiday tipping. Next,
- 12:38Speaker 3: out of Financial Exchange.
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- 13:58Speaker 2: Now joined by Ted Assman from bankut here to talk
- 14:01Speaker 2: about their twenty twenty five holiday tipping survey ted. How
- 14:05Speaker 2: are you today?
- 14:07Speaker 6: Doing well?
- 14:07Speaker 2: Good to be here, Ted, What kind of feelings do
- 14:10Speaker 2: Americans have about tipping this holiday season?
- 14:13Speaker 6: In general, people are pretty fed up with tipping. We
- 14:16Speaker 6: see about six and ten Americans have a negative view
- 14:19Speaker 6: towards the practice. A lot of people are just annoyed
- 14:22Speaker 6: about those pre entered tip screens at coffee shops and elsewhere,
- 14:26Speaker 6: and just the constant invitations to tip. Now, specific to
- 14:29Speaker 6: the holidays, people actually feel a bit more generous and
- 14:34Speaker 6: they kind of separate some of that annoyance. The holiday
- 14:38Speaker 6: tip tends to be more of a once a year's
- 14:40Speaker 6: show of appreciation for service. Workers in our lives, like
- 14:43Speaker 6: housekeepers and babysitters and people like that. We found that
- 14:47Speaker 6: the frequency of tipping is down a little bit, but
- 14:50Speaker 6: the amounts that people are giving are holding steady or
- 14:53Speaker 6: even increasing a little bit. That feels like further evidence
- 14:56Speaker 6: of the K shaped economy. Basically, higher earners are propping
- 15:00Speaker 6: up the overall numbers.
- 15:02Speaker 2: When you look at how things compare to you know,
- 15:07Speaker 2: kind of prior years. Are there any specific areas where
- 15:10Speaker 2: we might be seeing some differences compared to you know,
- 15:14Speaker 2: the last two or three years, or is it basically
- 15:16Speaker 2: you know the same in most key areas.
- 15:20Speaker 6: There are some interesting and somewhat conflicting kind of trends
- 15:24Speaker 6: here because, on one hand, among the things we asked about,
- 15:28Speaker 6: which I should say, were housekeepers, childcare providers, landscapers, teachers,
- 15:34Speaker 6: mail carriers, and trash collectors. In those six categories, in
- 15:38Speaker 6: every single one, fewer people are tipping this year than
- 15:41Speaker 6: they did last year. So that's not a great thing.
- 15:44Speaker 6: But if we zoom out a little bit, in all
- 15:47Speaker 6: these categories, except for one which was flat, which was
- 15:51Speaker 6: male carriers, the other five more people are tipping now
- 15:54Speaker 6: than we're back in twenty twenty one, so it's like
- 15:56Speaker 6: the long term trend is better than the short term one.
- 15:59Speaker 6: The amount are interesting as well. The amounts have actually
- 16:03Speaker 6: been quite steady the past few years, and generally speaking,
- 16:07Speaker 6: we're talking somewhere between twenty and fifty dollars per service provider,
- 16:11Speaker 6: depending on the category. The median was highest for housekeepers
- 16:16Speaker 6: and landscapers, that was fifty dollars a person. Childcare provider
- 16:20Speaker 6: was closed, and then it was quite a bit lower
- 16:23Speaker 6: for mail carriers twenty bugs, teachers twenty five, trash reom
- 16:26Speaker 6: recycling collectors twenty five. Those actually really have not changed
- 16:30Speaker 6: that much year over year or even in the last
- 16:33Speaker 6: five years. A couple of the categories went up a
- 16:35Speaker 6: little bit over five years, that would be landscapers and
- 16:39Speaker 6: trashroom recycling collectors. But for the most part it's actually
- 16:43Speaker 6: been a little more stable than year round tipping. We've
- 16:46Speaker 6: actually seen a more steady decline in the year round tips,
- 16:49Speaker 6: Like people are tipping worse at restaurants, they're tipping worse
- 16:52Speaker 6: at hair salons. Holiday tipping is kind of holding its own.
- 16:56Speaker 2: What about demographically, any demograph differences that you've seen.
- 17:02Speaker 6: Generally speaking, older people are better tippers, higher income people
- 17:07Speaker 6: are definitely better tippers. That often goes hand in hand.
- 17:12Speaker 6: Men are interesting because men are kind of boom or
- 17:14Speaker 6: bus tippers, like they're more likely to give a good
- 17:16Speaker 6: tip and they're more likely to give nothing at all.
- 17:19Speaker 6: Women are more consistent, even if the amounts tend to
- 17:21Speaker 6: be a little bit lower. We're painting with a fairly
- 17:24Speaker 6: broad brush here, but sure, in general, a lot of
- 17:28Speaker 6: young people don't like the whole tip and culture. A
- 17:31Speaker 6: lot of gen Zers in particular kind of pushback on
- 17:34Speaker 6: some of it from a social justice standpoint, and it's like, well,
- 17:37Speaker 6: it's not fair, we shouldn't be doing this. If you
- 17:40Speaker 6: work in a restaurant and you get a table of
- 17:42Speaker 6: gen z s, statistically they're going to be the worst tippers.
- 17:47Speaker 6: I would say, though, that fighting the tipping culture is hard,
- 17:50Speaker 6: especially nowadays, because it's just everywhere. It's the coffee shop,
- 17:54Speaker 6: it's the shoe truck. And I was asked to tip
- 17:56Speaker 6: at a self checkout machine at Newark Airport, asked for
- 18:00Speaker 6: tips in more places, and a lot of people resent that.
- 18:03Speaker 6: But if you don't tip, I'm not saying you need
- 18:05Speaker 6: to tip in all those situations, but like, if you
- 18:07Speaker 6: don't tip at a restaurant, or you don't tip the
- 18:09Speaker 6: food delivery person, or you don't tip the rideshare driver
- 18:13Speaker 6: or your hairstylist, they're really missing out. I do think
- 18:17Speaker 6: around the holidays though, people are tipping more out of generosity,
- 18:21Speaker 6: and they're tipping more generously when they really know the person.
- 18:24Speaker 6: If it's a housekeeper in your home every week, or
- 18:27Speaker 6: a regular babysitter or nanny, they're gonna get a better
- 18:30Speaker 6: tip than the mail carrier or the trash collector that
- 18:33Speaker 6: you might just not see as much.
- 18:36Speaker 2: Very good, Ted, appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
- 18:38Speaker 2: for sharing the results of your tipping survey with us anytime.
- 18:43Speaker 1: Thank you.
- 18:44Speaker 2: That is Ted Rossman from bank Rade talking about tipping.
- 18:49Speaker 5: All right, we'll do trivia quick here on the Financial Exchange.
- 18:52Speaker 5: On this day in nineteen eighty eight, Roy Orbison performed
- 18:54Speaker 5: his final concert. Orbison sadly passed away two days after
- 18:59Speaker 5: a heart attack. At the time of his death, Orbison
- 19:01Speaker 5: was a member of a supergroup with George Harrison, Bob Dylan,
- 19:04Speaker 5: Tom Petty and Jeff Lynn. So trivia question today, what
- 19:07Speaker 5: was the name of the supergroup that featured Roy Orbison?
- 19:10Speaker 2: Once again?
- 19:10Speaker 5: What was the name of the supergroup that featured Roy Orbison.
- 19:15Speaker 5: Be the sixth person today to text us at six
- 19:17Speaker 5: one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with the
- 19:20Speaker 5: correct answer along with the keyword trivia and win a
- 19:23Speaker 5: Financial Exchange Show T shirt. Once again, the six correct
- 19:26Speaker 5: response to text us to the number six one seven
- 19:29Speaker 5: three six two thirteen eighty five along with the keyword trivia,
- 19:33Speaker 5: will win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at
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- 19:38Speaker 2: Taking a look at markets as we head towards the
- 19:40Speaker 2: bottom of the hour. Basically all three major US indities
- 19:43Speaker 2: down about a tenth of a percent, not much movement
- 19:46Speaker 2: in either direction. A pretty boring day to this point
- 19:51Speaker 2: in equity markets, Bob markets getting a little bit more
- 19:54Speaker 2: exciting again, yields continuing to rise there, but uh again,
- 19:58Speaker 2: equities not really moving too much. Quick break here when
- 20:02Speaker 2: we return, we got the trivia answer at Wall Street.
- 20:04Speaker 1: Watch, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio
- 20:15Speaker 1: every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
- 20:19Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
- 20:25Speaker 1: look at what's moving market so far today right here
- 20:28Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 20:30Speaker 5: Pretty quiet day on Wall Street to this point as
- 20:33Speaker 5: investors sift through weekly jobless claims data and ready for
- 20:37Speaker 5: the core PC index for the latest look in inflation,
- 20:40Speaker 5: due out tomorrow morning. Right now, the Dow is down
- 20:44Speaker 5: merely a tenth of a percent, or fifty points lower.
- 20:46Speaker 5: SMP five hundred is dipping five points. NASDAC also off
- 20:50Speaker 5: by only five points. Russ In two thousand is up
- 20:54Speaker 5: two thirds of a percent. Ten You're Treasure reeled up
- 20:57Speaker 5: four basis points at four point one zero four percent,
- 21:01Speaker 5: and crude oil up just over one percent higher, trading
- 21:04Speaker 5: a fifty nine dollars and sixty three cents a barrel.
- 21:08Speaker 5: Breaking news from Beta this morning, following reports that Mark
- 21:10Speaker 5: Zuckerberg is expected to meaningfully cut resources for building the Metaverse,
- 21:16Speaker 5: potentially with budget cuts as high as thirty percent next year.
- 21:20Speaker 5: MetaStock is climbing about four percent. Meanwhile, salesforce rising over
- 21:24Speaker 5: two percent higher after the software company hiked its full
- 21:27Speaker 5: year of guidance as its AI product agent force gained
- 21:31Speaker 5: some traction. As for its third quarter, the company beat
- 21:34Speaker 5: earnings forecast, but just missed expectations for its revenue. Elsewhere,
- 21:39Speaker 5: a cloud software company Snowflake posted at narrow a narrow
- 21:44Speaker 5: quarterly loss and reported growing demand for its AI agent. However,
- 21:48Speaker 5: its outlook for product revenue growth for the January quarter disappointed. Additionally,
- 21:53Speaker 5: Snowflake agreed to a two hundred million dollars deal with
- 21:56Speaker 5: AI startup in Thropic. Snowflake shares now down eleven percent
- 22:01Speaker 5: and Dollar General shares a jumping ten percent higher after
- 22:04Speaker 5: the discount retailer lifted its full year guidance after topping
- 22:08Speaker 5: third quarter expectations. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall
- 22:12Speaker 5: Street Watch. And last segment, we asked the trivia question
- 22:16Speaker 5: what was the name of the super group that featured
- 22:19Speaker 5: Roy Orbison. That would be the Traveling Willberry's Phil from Plastow,
- 22:24Speaker 5: New Hampshire is our winner today taking home a Financial
- 22:27Speaker 5: Exchange Show T shirt. And we played trivia every day
- 22:30Speaker 5: here in the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules at
- 22:33Speaker 5: Financial Exchange Show dot com.
- 22:36Speaker 2: Mike, we got a piece in the Wall Street Journal
- 22:38Speaker 2: three year end tax strategies that can cut your twenty
- 22:41Speaker 2: twenty five tax bill. That sounds fun.
- 22:44Speaker 3: Yeah, you know these are not to be dismissed. You
- 22:47Speaker 3: know there is still time to max out your retirement
- 22:49Speaker 3: plan hypothetically. You know, I don't know how many pay
- 22:52Speaker 3: periods are left, but you can jack up that tech
- 22:55Speaker 3: no salary contracts, mission ray pretty much. Yeah, you got
- 22:58Speaker 3: to leave enough in there to pay for your benefits,
- 22:59Speaker 3: but you could bump that up as high as it
- 23:02Speaker 3: can go. Obviously, charitable giving just understand you know the
- 23:06Speaker 3: limitations on how much you can deduct and where that's
- 23:09Speaker 3: going to come from, and you know how it's actually
- 23:12Speaker 3: going to affect your taxes before you do it. Tax
- 23:15Speaker 3: losses good luck. I mean, unless you bought crypto like
- 23:19Speaker 3: a month and a half ago, I don't know where
- 23:21Speaker 3: you're going to find your tax losses in your portfolio,
- 23:23Speaker 3: but maybe a.
- 23:25Speaker 2: Lot of the S and P five hundred if you're
- 23:27Speaker 2: a buyer of chargeable companies, yeah you can find some each.
- 23:30Speaker 2: S and P five hundred stock is not near its
- 23:33Speaker 2: all time high right now, despite the index being there.
- 23:35Speaker 3: So the other side of this, though, that I like
- 23:38Speaker 3: to talk about, is people always focus on, hey, how
- 23:42Speaker 3: can I minimize this year's tax bill? And there's something
- 23:45Speaker 3: to be said for that, but far too often they
- 23:48Speaker 3: do so at the risk of paying a whole boatload
- 23:52Speaker 3: of taxes in the not so distant future. Right how
- 23:55Speaker 3: many people have you talked to who retire and they're like, oh,
- 23:57Speaker 3: it's been great, I've paid no taxes the last three years.
- 24:00Speaker 3: And then you just kind of you don't giggle because
- 24:03Speaker 3: that's mean, but you look at you like, that sounds great,
- 24:06Speaker 3: But you're going to pay like an average effective tax
- 24:08Speaker 3: rate of twenty seven percent now for the rest of
- 24:10Speaker 3: your life because you didn't do the planning that you
- 24:13Speaker 3: should have. And so when looking at minimizing taxes, it
- 24:18Speaker 3: is not a year to year plan that you should
- 24:21Speaker 3: be doing. It is not a hey, how do I
- 24:23Speaker 3: minimize my taxes this year? You need to be thinking
- 24:26Speaker 3: about how do you minimize your taxes over a lifetime.
- 24:30Speaker 3: Otherwise it's quite honestly, just a useless exercise. I can't
- 24:34Speaker 3: tell you the number of people that just fell into
- 24:36Speaker 3: that exact scenario I talked about. I remember meeting with
- 24:39Speaker 3: somebody that was turning seventy that year and you told
- 24:44Speaker 3: me I have paid zero dollars in taxes for the
- 24:47Speaker 3: last decade. And I had to walk through and them like, yeah,
- 24:50Speaker 3: at that point in time, you required minimums started at
- 24:53Speaker 3: seventy and a half and I had to break the
- 24:55Speaker 3: news like, yeah, that's great, but now you are going
- 24:58Speaker 3: to be paying right choose its plus federal taxes on
- 25:02Speaker 3: this massive required minimum distribution that you should have been
- 25:05Speaker 3: spreading out. Tax planning is a critical part of financial
- 25:10Speaker 3: planning at just about every stage of life. If you
- 25:14Speaker 3: have questions about how you can integrate that into your
- 25:17Speaker 3: overall plan, if you're not doing it today, learn more
- 25:21Speaker 3: by calling Armstrong Advisory at eight hundred three nine three
- 25:24Speaker 3: for zero zero one. You can also book time to
- 25:27Speaker 3: chat with us at Armstrong Advisory dot com. But again,
- 25:31Speaker 3: nobody enjoys paying taxes, but believe it or not, there
- 25:34Speaker 3: can be good reasons to do so preemptively and prepay
- 25:37Speaker 3: what you might owe in the future. Call Armstrong Advisory
- 25:40Speaker 3: eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
- 25:43Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
- 25:46Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
- 25:48Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
- 25:51Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
- 25:54Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
- 25:57Speaker 1: advisory services.
- 25:59Speaker 2: Mike, I wanted to do little holiday scam warning. If
- 26:02Speaker 2: that's cool, sure and specifically ones here that are you
- 26:05Speaker 2: know more, you know, unique to this time of year.
- 26:10Speaker 2: Bunch them out there. In terms of text messages saying
- 26:14Speaker 2: that you have a package that's delayed, click this link
- 26:18Speaker 2: to reschedule your delivery.
- 26:20Speaker 3: Get those every day.
- 26:21Speaker 2: Never ever do that. Wherever you ordered from, pull up
- 26:27Speaker 2: the original order email that you received from the merchant,
- 26:30Speaker 2: whether it is Amazon, whether it is you know, Gym's
- 26:36Speaker 2: Taco Kit Construction, whatever, whoever it might be.
- 26:41Speaker 3: Yeah, Gim's Taco Construction is a major organization these days.
- 26:44Speaker 2: It's a good one.
- 26:45Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 26:45Speaker 2: In any case, go find the original email, find either
- 26:49Speaker 2: the customer service number on it or the customer service
- 26:52Speaker 2: email on it, and reach out through that method, not
- 26:56Speaker 2: the person who just texts you, because there's like a
- 26:59Speaker 2: ninety eight percent that it's a scam.
- 27:01Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 27:01Speaker 2: Occasionally those are real, which is confusing. And again I
- 27:05Speaker 2: always check these, and I occasionally find one that is
- 27:08Speaker 2: real and you're like, oh, that's weird. I wouldn't have
- 27:11Speaker 2: expected it. But in any case, most of the time
- 27:15Speaker 2: scam other ones. If you see an ad while you're
- 27:19Speaker 2: on the website that says like, hey, ninety percent off
- 27:23Speaker 2: sale going on, be very careful that you are actually
- 27:27Speaker 2: clicking on a legitimate ad and not one taking you
- 27:30Speaker 2: to a scam website. Even on legitimate sites, there are
- 27:35Speaker 2: illegitimate ads. Is that the right word?
- 27:38Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 27:39Speaker 2: Yeah, So like you can be on Facebook and click
- 27:42Speaker 2: an ad and think you're going to see like Williams
- 27:43Speaker 2: Sonoma and you're actually going to like Williams No Money More,
- 27:48Speaker 2: and like that's the name of the website, but you're
- 27:50Speaker 2: not paying attention to the address and then it you know,
- 27:52Speaker 2: they basically take your credit card and stuff.
- 27:54Speaker 3: Where I'm seeing AI get implemented in this, I know
- 27:57Speaker 3: we've you know, warned about what's coming, which I think
- 28:00Speaker 3: eventually is voice replication on phone calls and scary stuff
- 28:03Speaker 3: like that. I haven't seen a lot of that firsthand yet,
- 28:06Speaker 3: but where I am seeing a ton of it. AI
- 28:08Speaker 3: is clearly scraping business websites and putting together scam emails
- 28:13Speaker 3: based on what they find on your company's website. So, hey,
- 28:15Speaker 3: you've got these thirteen employees, Great, I'm going to spam
- 28:18Speaker 3: all of them, and AI is going to create an
- 28:20Speaker 3: email that looks and sounds like it's coming from your
- 28:23Speaker 3: CEO and is in fact nothing of the sort. Where
- 28:27Speaker 3: I think that goes next is probably AI sorting through
- 28:31Speaker 3: social media and trying to build good, successful scams based
- 28:35Speaker 3: on what's happening on your Facebook and Instagram profile. But
- 28:39Speaker 3: we're not, from what I can tell, quite there yet.
- 28:42Speaker 3: But yeah, if you are still working today and your
- 28:45Speaker 3: website or your email address is out there, yeah, be
- 28:50Speaker 3: prepared for those scamm emails to come in that way,
- 28:53Speaker 3: you know what?
- 28:54Speaker 2: You know? What's one I actually got that recently was real.
- 28:56Speaker 2: So I woke up one morning and I have a
- 29:00Speaker 2: trip scheduled in like March of next year that I'm
- 29:02Speaker 2: staying in an Airbnb. I got a text message saying
- 29:06Speaker 2: your Airbnb's been canceled. Click here to reschedule. And immediately
- 29:09Speaker 2: I'm just like, no, not not real. I pull up
- 29:13Speaker 2: the airbnb website and it's like, oh, your trip's been canceled,
- 29:16Speaker 2: like click here to try to reschedule. Because A I
- 29:19Speaker 2: didn't know that a host could actually cancel your trip
- 29:25Speaker 2: right like they can just do that. I guess didn't know.
- 29:30Speaker 2: I figured like, once you booked, you were good. Turned
- 29:32Speaker 2: out that the host actually decided to sell their property
- 29:35Speaker 2: and so they canceled like everything. But I saw the
- 29:37Speaker 2: text message and it was just literally it didn't say
- 29:40Speaker 2: like from Airbnb or anything. It was just your trip's
- 29:43Speaker 2: been canceled. Click here. And then I saw like I
- 29:46Speaker 2: had an email. Also, I was like, okay, like something
- 29:48Speaker 2: might actually be up. Let's go check, and it was.
- 29:50Speaker 2: But it didn't come across in a particularly professional manner,
- 29:55Speaker 2: you know. So I found that kind of interesting. But
- 29:58Speaker 2: most of the time, my asumption as it's a scam.
- 30:01Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break when we come back. Stack Roulette.
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- 30:45Speaker 5: This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
- 30:48Speaker 5: by the US Virgin Islands Department Tourism. There's still time
- 30:51Speaker 5: to book your holiday vacation to Saint Croix Saints Homas
- 30:54Speaker 5: or Saint John. Enjoy one or all three, and if
- 30:57Speaker 5: you act fast, you could be on Saint Croix to
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- 31:05Speaker 5: Discover the magic of this long standing tradition with incredible food, music,
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- 31:18Speaker 5: Playing your winter escape now at visit USBI dot com.
- 31:22Speaker 5: That's visit USVII dot com.
- 31:25Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for stack Roulette?
- 31:27Speaker 3: Fat cats? Uh ah, That's what I'm That's what I'm
- 31:31Speaker 3: going with. I sent this story to my to my
- 31:34Speaker 3: wife about our own cat, who is not nearly as
- 31:36Speaker 3: cat fat as this picture of a cat on this
- 31:40Speaker 3: on this story. But the drug industry is testing out
- 31:48Speaker 3: GLP one implants for cats, which I'm just kind of
- 31:53Speaker 3: confused about how we test drugs these days. To start with, like,
- 31:57Speaker 3: isn't it usually you test it on animals first, see
- 32:00Speaker 3: how it goes, and then like, oh, yeah, it worked
- 32:02Speaker 3: fairly well in rodents, Let's try it on a cat.
- 32:04Speaker 3: Or a dog or a chimpanzee. Oh yeah, I worked
- 32:07Speaker 3: pretty well there, let's test it on humans. We seem
- 32:08Speaker 3: to have rolled it out to humans and now we're
- 32:10Speaker 3: going back to cats on this one. So little confusing. Also,
- 32:16Speaker 3: with my pets, at least I feed them, and so
- 32:20Speaker 3: if I'm worried about them gaining weight, Like I get
- 32:23Speaker 3: how this is different with a human being, with you
- 32:27Speaker 3: more control over their independence. But my animals, we determine
- 32:32Speaker 3: how much food they get, and so if they become
- 32:34Speaker 3: too fat, rather than putting them on one thousand dollars
- 32:37Speaker 3: a month GLP one drug, I'd probably just cut some
- 32:42Speaker 3: of their food. Am I missing something new?
- 32:46Speaker 5: Uh?
- 32:47Speaker 3: I know you can't make your dog or cat exercise necessarily,
- 32:52Speaker 3: but well, what are we trying to do here? Make
- 32:55Speaker 3: our cats sexier? Like?
- 33:00Speaker 2: What are we trying to do here? This is a
- 33:05Speaker 2: solution in search of a problem. It's like, let's just
- 33:08Speaker 2: call it what it is. It's a solution in search
- 33:11Speaker 2: of a problem. Yeah, you do not need to o
- 33:14Speaker 2: zempic fi your cat? Okay, right, you do not need
- 33:19Speaker 2: cat zempic or what's the other one?
- 33:21Speaker 6: Oh?
- 33:21Speaker 3: Look at its cheekbones?
- 33:24Speaker 2: Right?
- 33:24Speaker 3: Like? What? Oh?
- 33:26Speaker 2: Your dog's canines are really prominent now, like I mean, like, guys,
- 33:30Speaker 2: I'm sorry, we've gone too far. I mean, look, we
- 33:35Speaker 2: knew the pendulum had to swing back from a couple
- 33:36Speaker 2: of years ago when Bloomberg told us to let your
- 33:38Speaker 2: pets die. But now we've gone too far in that
- 33:43Speaker 2: you don't need to give glp ones to your pet.
- 33:47Speaker 3: It's really expensive.
- 33:48Speaker 2: There's a nice middle ground there where you take your
- 33:51Speaker 2: pet to the vet, you feed them, you play with them,
- 33:54Speaker 2: and you do all those nice things that you're supposed
- 33:56Speaker 2: to do. And that's where we need to get to.
- 33:59Speaker 2: Not hey, my my cat's one pound overweight. Should I
- 34:04Speaker 2: use ozembic?
- 34:06Speaker 3: Can you imagine?
- 34:08Speaker 2: I mean, like, who looks at I gotta be honest,
- 34:13Speaker 2: who looks at an animal? And it's just like no, no,
- 34:18Speaker 2: you need you need to lose weight. I'm gonna like, yeah,
- 34:21Speaker 2: I again. We all have like pets in our lives
- 34:23Speaker 2: that occasionally like look a little chunkier, look a little you.
- 34:27Speaker 3: Know, dinner. I know that we all treat our pets
- 34:29Speaker 3: like as family members, and weight issues can cause earth
- 34:34Speaker 3: problems like early death, and pets like they can't use
- 34:37Speaker 3: their joints anymore, and they die early. But again, the
- 34:41Speaker 3: easy solution to that is forced your pet to lose
- 34:45Speaker 3: weight because it's not a human being. We don't most
- 34:51Speaker 3: of us. Most of us with pets are not to
- 34:54Speaker 3: McDonald's at midnight, right, We're.
- 34:56Speaker 2: Not sending them out into the fields to like hunt
- 34:58Speaker 2: for their dinner. That's not how most of us work with.
- 35:01Speaker 3: And if it were, it would be not overweight anymore
- 35:04Speaker 3: because it would be hunting its own dinner.
- 35:06Speaker 2: So I gotta say, this is a real problem here,
- 35:11Speaker 2: that that this is even being talked about. I don't.
- 35:14Speaker 3: I don't think it's a problem. I think it's very
- 35:16Speaker 3: funny text V. That's fantastic. I just uh, And.
- 35:27Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong, Like we do use human medications
- 35:30Speaker 2: on pets on a regular basis.
- 35:32Speaker 3: Sure, I have cat, cat has uh has diabetes. They
- 35:36Speaker 3: have to give it a shot of her day.
- 35:38Speaker 2: I have a family member whose dog has seizures and
- 35:41Speaker 2: there's no dog specific seizure medications, so they the vet
- 35:45Speaker 2: prescribes human medication for that. You know, it's but like
- 35:49Speaker 2: that's a specific problem that you're trying to deal with,
- 35:51Speaker 2: not Hey, my my pets a little overweight. Do you
- 35:55Speaker 2: think we need to start giving it shots once a month.
- 35:57Speaker 3: Oh man, I gotta drop my my animal health insurance
- 36:01Speaker 3: because if this stuff starts getting covered, it's gonna be
- 36:03Speaker 3: going through the roof.
- 36:04Speaker 2: Oh. I mean, it's just it's my my goodness, I
- 36:06Speaker 2: don't even know you know where to where to start
- 36:11Speaker 2: on this? Here? Another one here, This one from Bloomberg.
- 36:15Speaker 2: Tired Americans are spending more just to avoid chores. So
- 36:19Speaker 2: apparently ge has come out with what I do think
- 36:22Speaker 2: is kind of like the Holy Grail. It's kind of cool.
- 36:24Speaker 2: It's a washer dryer combo that you don't have to
- 36:28Speaker 2: like move things. Finally, the problem is that it costs
- 36:33Speaker 2: two thousand dollars to get it all into one unit
- 36:35Speaker 2: instead of you know, like twelve hundred dollars if you
- 36:40Speaker 2: just put them side by side. So the question is,
- 36:43Speaker 2: you know, over the eight to ten year lifespan of
- 36:45Speaker 2: a new washer dryer, is it worth it to you
- 36:48Speaker 2: to spend an extra one hundred dollars a year to
- 36:51Speaker 2: not have to move damp laundry from one side to
- 36:56Speaker 2: the other.
- 36:56Speaker 5: Well, to play Devil's advocate, it could be a space
- 36:58Speaker 5: saving maneuver too.
- 37:00Speaker 3: I like it, you know, this story like was trying
- 37:04Speaker 3: to mock people who are buying these expensive products that
- 37:07Speaker 3: make their lives easier. Some of them are silly, yes, absolutely,
- 37:11Speaker 3: like the closet that steams your clothes, Like, yeah, that
- 37:15Speaker 3: seems pretty silly, but have you ever.
- 37:17Speaker 2: Steamed a single clothes, not let alone multiple clothes?
- 37:21Speaker 3: Isn't this like the entire purpose of technology and innovation
- 37:26Speaker 3: is to make our lives easier. Now, some are gonna
- 37:28Speaker 3: be dumb, like a steaming clothes closet.
- 37:31Speaker 2: Do you remember the smart toilets from a couple of
- 37:33Speaker 2: years ago that would like read your bowel movements and
- 37:35Speaker 2: tell you what to eat?
- 37:36Speaker 3: Yeah? So, uh not all of these are gonna be.
- 37:44Speaker 2: If your cat's been eaten mice that have been you know,
- 37:47Speaker 2: in your laundry.
- 37:50Speaker 3: Yeah, so some of these are dumb, But I don't
- 37:52Speaker 3: think we should just mock a you know, washer dryer
- 37:56Speaker 3: combo for two grand, Like that's not that ridiculous.
- 38:01Speaker 2: Some of them are okay. Some of them are you know,
- 38:03Speaker 2: a little you know, like do you need to buy
- 38:07Speaker 2: an oven with a specialized pizza setting in it? Or
- 38:11Speaker 2: can you just turn your regular oven up really high
- 38:15Speaker 2: with a twenty dollars pizza stone in it. What makes
- 38:17Speaker 2: it special?
- 38:18Speaker 3: Well, I mean, a pizza oven is like a thousand degrees.
- 38:20Speaker 3: I don't think my oven gets that.
- 38:22Speaker 5: Well, now you can cook a pizza, a good pizza.
- 38:25Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, oh yeah, you can do a great or
- 38:28Speaker 2: just turn the broiler on, put it the top rack
- 38:30Speaker 2: and you're good.
- 38:30Speaker 3: I don't make pizza. This is the easiest thing to
- 38:32Speaker 3: do take out.
- 38:33Speaker 2: For And there you go, ladies and gentlemen, there you go.
- 38:38Speaker 2: I don't know what we're saying that about, but in
- 38:40Speaker 2: any case, let's take a quick break until tomorrow, so
- 38:44Speaker 2: you know, take the day for the most important day. Mark,
- 38:46Speaker 2: get yourself settled, do your laundry moved from the washer
- 38:49Speaker 2: to the dryer, and we'll see you tomorrow on the
- 38:51Speaker 2: financial exchange.
- 39:00Speaker 3: Four