Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Are We Good? | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/29/26

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Wednesday BEST BETS | Are We Good? | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/29/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this, Man, with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my Bruins hack Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: March eight, Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: slump yesterdays, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everdbuddy? It's towed back with you with Toadstool
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Sports Wednesday, April twenty ninth. We went three and oh
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: on the show yesterday, if you want to call it
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: three and oh because I did give out the three plays, uh,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the first one the over in Saint Louis, Pittsburgh. I
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: commented on the video and I said I would probably
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: just avoid the game once it was announced that Ashcraft
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: came back from Forrie, because he did have good numbers
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: against Saint Louis and he is a capable pitcher. But
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: he had a bad outing. Dude. I don't know if
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: it was just because he was thrown off by all
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the other stuff that was going on. Could definitely have
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: been a distraction or whatever. That game went way over
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: the total, though, so if you guys did play it,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: like I mentioned in the morning, with action, so it
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: didn't even matter who pitched. You did get an easy
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: win with it. So you know, if I have to
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: add it to my record, I'm okay with that because
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: that'll make it forty four twenty and four over the
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: last twenty five days on the show. Then the Seattle
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Mariners they got there last night. That was I should
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: actually I should probably not bring up the old banners
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: from yesterday, just to not confuse people. But yeah, the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Mariners were a win yesterday. They were losing one nothing
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: and like the sixth inning, Man, so the starting pitching
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: handicap did not help out. But the bullpens were obviously
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: part of the handicap. That's why I wanted to go
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: full game on that. Seattle obviously as the better bullpen,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and that got us the job done. Minnesota's bullpen totally
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: imploded and Seattle won the game seven to one. So
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: that is that's the way it happened. Man. Seattle did
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: take the lead by like the seventh inning, I think,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: so it's not like they put up a bunch of
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: runs just in the ninth inning, but we got that done.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: And then my Boston Bruins, low scoring, close game, they
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: got the job done as well. They won in overtime
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and some people are flipping out saying the Bruins are
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: off sides, which is not the case. You know, they
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: review everything. It was it was close, but yeah, I
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: mean it was it was a good goal. They won
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: the game, obviously. I'll take that. As a Bruin fan.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: I'll move on to today. I am being thrown off
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: by the pregame site that I use because they don't
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: have the market percentages coming in right now. Something is
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: fucked up on their back end. So I'm trying to like,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: look at that, look at the wager talk odds, trying
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: to figure out where is the money in these games,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: what's going on. So I'm kind of blind as far
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: as the market is concerned right now, which I really
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: don't like. Although my play is won yesterday, so that's good.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out two baseball players and one NBA
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: play today and that's how it's gonna be. Skipping the
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: NHL today. I don't love the NHL board, even though
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I think we're up to three one and one in
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the NHL now, so that's not too bad. In the playoffs,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I mean NBA, I think we're like five and five,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: so I have to get better with the NBA. Usually
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I crush the NBA. These Yeah, the particular zigzags that
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I've been jumping on have not been that good, which
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is not good. I don't like the baseball board again,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't know, man, There's something about
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: baseball like messes with your mind. Because I think one thing,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the market will be saying something else. They're just too
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: many conflicting factors and I get autistic about it. I
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: look at matchup numbers and I don't know. I try
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to figure out what is the best approach here, So
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: hopefully I'm gonna have plays that actually work here. Garrett,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: what's up? You're in a slump? I'm not really. I
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: mean I had, like, I don't know, like the basically
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: I was treading water on the show for a few days.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: But it's been pretty good the last few weeks, Dirty Sock,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: what's up? I never recommend parling any of that, as
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: you know. But yes, I'm trying to get these done.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to get wins here. But the goal if
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I give up three plays on a day, the goal
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: is to go to and one. Pretty much like I know,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get everything right, you know, I just
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: think it's the best shot at getting these winners here.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So you know, I don't recommend parreling obviously, because you
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: don't get good enough odds on it, and one play.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: You know, one loss brings the whole thing down, whereas
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: winning two out of three you should win money, so
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: which you do if you straight bet them all. Right,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: let's get into this. I don't want to waste all
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: this time here baseball. We have afternoon baseball because it's
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: getaway day for some of these teams that are ending
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: their series. Tampa Bay at Cleveland. Cleveland is trying to
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: avoid a sweep, So I talk about this. When a
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: team's trying to avoid a sweep, a lot of times
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: they will show up with a little bit of extra effort.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: These games have been really low scoring in this series
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: so far, kind of surprisingly low scoring in some cases.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe Tampa Bay has won a bunch of games in
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: a row. They won six games in a row, kind
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: of have to look at well, are they gonna start
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: looking ahead? I don't know. They got San Francisco next
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: after a day off. I don't know if that's really
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: a cause for a look ahead, but I think you're
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: gonna get extra effort out of Cleveland to try to
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep at home. Cleveland three relief pitchers used yesterday.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay also used three. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: struggling this year, but they are moving up a little bit.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: They've been better recently. Their overall numbers are still bad
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: at twentieth, but I don't think they're as bad as
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: maybe they look. Cleveland's bullpen weird numbers. They're at eighth
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: and WHIP, but their ERA is in the mid fours.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I still don't really trust either of
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: these bullpens, but I kind of think they're both better
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: than maybe their numbers suggest. As far as the hitting,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is eleventh in offense, Cleveland is twenty fifth
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: based on ops, So yeah, I'll agree Tampa is the
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: better offense. I don't think their offense is really that
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: good though. Drew Rasmus in his pitching for Tampa, he's
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: been good two point four five ERA, point seven to
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: four WHIP. He bounced back after one bad outing where
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: we happen to have an under I think in that game,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: so that was great. His only bad outing of the year.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: We happen to lose on that one against Pittsburgh, he
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: bounced back with another good performance. He's given up one
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: or zero earned runs in every outing except that bad one. Now,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: what they do with him is they let him usually
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: go like five innings. They pull him after he's around
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: eighty pitches. But my worry is they let him go
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: basically one hundred pitches in the last game, which they
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: usually don't let him do that. So I don't know
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: if that's gonna mean that he's overworked now coming off
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: with that, I don't know, but I'm still kind of
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: leaning towards he's gonna do pretty well because he usually does.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: And his numbers against Cleveland are good. In thirty six
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: at bats, ten to two, strike a walk ratio one
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: sixty seven average, three seventy seven ops allowed, So I
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: don't think that he's going to do badly here. Gavin
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Williams is pitching for Cleveland. He is. He has some
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: of the weirdest pitching stats that I that I've seen. Man,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I've mentioned it before. Three point two eighty ira, a
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: one point zero nine whip. I mean, I know there's
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: nothing weird about that that looks good. But he got
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: bombed in his last game against Toronto, give up six
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: earned runs, but besides that outing, he'd given up no
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: more than two earned runs in any outing. In April
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: gave up three and his first start of the season
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: in Seattle. But you look at his numbers. Four strikeouts
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: at thirty five and two thirds innings. Okay, so his
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: strike out rate is high. That's good. But he has
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: nineteen walks and only twenty hits allowed, so he's like unhittable.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: He's wild. He walks too many people, and he's also
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: given up too many home runs kind of six home
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: runs allowed, but Cleveland has also won five starts in
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: a row of his He's it's yeah. I don't know, man,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: He's tough for me to figure out because I think
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: there's more good than bad here with Gavin Williams. But
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: his numbers against Tampa are bad. In thirty four at bats,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: four strike ups, seven walks, three point fifty three average
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: allowed one thousand and seventy oh ps. I don't like
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: seeing that. You know, we don't see the market and
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: percentages on this. I'm gonna lean. I'm gonna slightly lean
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Tampa to get the sweep done here. You know. I mean,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know if the bullpens, you know, I don't
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: know if there's really an advantage to one bullpen that
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: much over the other. You could go first five Tampa.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I guess if you want to us focus on Rasmussen
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: over Williams, I have some concerns about it. Cleveland did
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: flip to a minus one ten favorite here. The total
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: is ridiculously low, six and a half on the total,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: and you know me, I don't really like I'll just
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: never play the six and a half total, even though
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the professionals will always tell you that's the oddsmakers trying
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: to get you to not play the under there. So
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: you should play the under there because it's a signal
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a low scoring game. I
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: just avoid it, though, because seven is a key number
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: and I would just much rather have seven. So I'm
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it. As far as the percentages here,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: it looks like fifty eight percent of tickets eighty two
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Tampa according to wager Talks
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: odd screen here. So yeah, I'm gonna lean Tampa in
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: that one. Josh, what's up? Yes, sir, you're the only like, Yeah,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I don't get any likes or views here except from
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: the regulars. Man, we need more people. No, I don't
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: really understand that betting on me. I mean no, I
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: mean like yeah, I mean no, it doesn't really make sense.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Like like I said, the odds makers try to fuck
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: you by. They want to entice you to bet parlays.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You never get good enough odds on them. Like, I'm
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: not gonna get everything right. If I'm good, I'm gonna
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: get like fifty five percent of these things right, you
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Anaheim at Chicago White Sox. White
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Sox are on the verge of a sweep as well.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Unless these teams play tomorrow too. I'm not sure they do,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: not so the White Sox. They have San Diego next.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Don't know if that's a look ahead or not. But
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: you might have a motivational edge, Like I said, there
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: might be a motivational edge for Cleveland in that Tampa game.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: There might be one for Anaheim here because you don't
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: really gonna do you really want to get swept by
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. Probably not, even though the White Sox
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: are not like an absolute bottom of the barrel team
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: anymore right now, But it's still bad if you get
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: swept by the White Sox. They use three relief pitchers
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: yesterday dot excuse me, Anaheim also used three. I almost
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: said the Dodgers now the other LA team bullpens are
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: both bad. Anaheim twenty eighth, White Sox twenty seventh, and Whip.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: They're both fadable bullpens. Offensively, the White Sox are twentieth.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: They've moved up a little bit recently, Anaheim seventh. But again, Anaheim,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: it's a lot of power, hitting reliance. And you know,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: I do not like Anaheim's pitcher, You say, Kakuchi. He
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: is really bad on the road, basically throughout his entire career.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: ERA on the road this year is eight versus three
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: point twenty seven at home. Overall six point two one
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: ERA with a one point five to nine WHIP. None
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: of that is good. Anaheim's lost every one of his
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: starts in the month of April. He's struggling, He's not
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: doing well. Does have more strikeouts than innings pitch thirty
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: two in twenty nine innings, but thirty three hits allowed
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: on top of thirteen walks. None of that is good,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: except for the strikeouts. He's putting too many guys on base.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe he won't do as bad here because the White
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Sox are not that strong of an offense. The only
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: four hitters will faced him before forty seven at bats,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: fourteen strikeouts, three walks, two thirty four average six forty
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: two ops. I still don't want to bank on Kokuchi, though,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the way that he's pitching and how bad he is
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: on the road, he definitely could get lit up in
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: this game. Still, Eric Fetti is pitching for the White Sox,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: and I would say that if you're gonna make a
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: play on this game, you probably want to play action
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: because the White Sox are probably gonna use Fetti, but
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: they might use an opener in front of him like
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: they did the last time he pitched. So it's not
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: guaranteed that the starters that are listed are actually gonna start,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: but you will probably get Fetti coming in for like
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: a starter's workload, if that makes sense. Fetti actually has
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: okay numbers three point four two ERA one point one
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: four whip you dig a little deeper, though, sixteen strikeouts
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: eleven walks. That's not very good. Only nineteen hits a
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: lot on twenty six and a third innings, though so
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rate is low. The White Sox finally won
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: a game where he pitched, and he did not get
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the win in the game. I don't know. I mean,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I still I don't really trust Fetti still, although maybe
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: he's a little bit more trustworthy the Kokuchi in a
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: matchup like this, I'll where Kokuchi's on the road. But again,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Kakuchi face of the White Sox, does have good matchup numbers.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Fetti against the Angels, his numbers are not too bad
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: here thirty eight at bats, six to one, strike out,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: walk ratio two thirty seven average allowed, seven to twenty
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: two ops. Yeah, I mean, there are just too many
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: factors in this game for me to want to do
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: anything with this. Anaheim's a small road favorite here. I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: don't want to play Kikuchi on the road, even though
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: they're trying to avoid the Sweet Pier. The money, according
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: to wager Talk here looks like it is coming in
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: on the White Sox side, sixty percent of tickets, seventy
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the White Sox. The
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: money coming out on the under as well. If you're
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: gonna go under in this game, you have to go
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: first five innings. There's no way. I would recommend full
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: game with these bullpens here. Yeah, I mean, I would
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: probably lean over full game. But if you're gonna play
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the under first five innings does make some sense. But
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: I could see one or both pitchers winding up not
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: actually doing that well here and then plus the bullpens,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I think that probably Yeah, I mean that game would
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: probably be more likely to go over than under. Maybe
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: it doesn't, though, but I just I don't have a
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: good feel for the game. There's just too many conflicting factors.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: When I have two pitchers that I really don't like
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: that happen to have good matchup numbers, and I'm like, yeah,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with it. Seattle at Minnesota.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Seattle got the win for us on the show last night.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: These teams have split the first two games of the series,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: so they'll probably both show up here. Seattle these four
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Yesterday, they didn't use every one of their
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: better relief so a couple of their better relievers are
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: available in this game. Minnesota is three last night. Minnesota's
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: bullpen is bad twenty sixth and Whip their era is
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: bad as well. Seattle, they're the much better bullpen, even
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: though there at sixteenth than Whip, Like pretty much we
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: know their bullpen is better, and the offenses are actually
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: really close now with Seattle moving up a bit after yesterday,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: they're tied in ops at sixteenth. But I don't really
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: trust Minnesota's offense much. Seattle say they gets a little
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: bit better, and their numbers get skewed a little bit
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: downward because they play in a very pitcher friendly park
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: at home, which is not where they are here, but
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: that means they're pitching might be a little bit worse.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: George Kirby is pitching. He's been good this season for Seattle.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Two point nine to seventy RA, one point zero four WHIP,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: twenty nine to nine strike out walk ratio, thirty two
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: hits a lot, thirty nine to third innings strike out
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: rate is not that high, but like all the rest
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: of his numbers are pretty good. He's allowed more than
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: two earned runs on the twice this season. None of
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: that is bad obviously, numbers against Minnesota, though he actually
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: does not do that well against Minnesota forty six at basts.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: He does have a really good thirteen to one strike
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio against them, but two eighty three average
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: allowed eight to forty one ohps. They have four home
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: runs against him, including two from Josh Bell So who
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: is four for seven off him. So keeping all that
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: in mind, might not be the best matchup for him.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Taj Bradley pitching from Minnesota. He's seem to have some
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: improvement here pitching with Minnesota this year two point nine
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: to one ERA, but his whip is getting high or
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: one point twenty nine. The concern of them has usually
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: been the walks man, and that is coming into play here.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: He did just give up six or in runs against
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Tampa last time out. He gave up four home runs
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: after not having given up any on the season, so
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: maybe that was a fluke. But he's walked multiple guys
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: in all but two outings, including three in a row,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: so the walks are definitely an shoe with him. Thirty
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, thirteen walks in thirty four innings, thirty one
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: hits allowed. It's a good strike out rate. The hit
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: rate is pretty low, but yeah, the amount of walks
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: is bad, so that's not great. Numbers Against Seattle they're okay,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: but they're a little bit all over the place. Thirty
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: nine at bats nine to five strike out walk ratio
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: two thirty one average is low. Eight fifty seven OPS
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: is high. Uh, the Big Dumper has two on runs
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: off and which is part of the reason why the
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: OPS is higher. I believe the money is coming in
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: towards Minnesota. Here Seattle dropped for minus one forty to
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty seven. If you're gonna play Minnesota, I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: would not go full game on that because their bullpen
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: is ass so I would go first five if you're
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: gonna play Minnesota here, I don't want anything to do
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: with this game. Really. Uh, the money looks like it
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: is backing Minnesota quite a bit. Seattle fifty three percent
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty eight percent of the casual Minnesota according
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to this screen here. Again, I don't really disagree necessarily.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Maybe Bradley's last outing was a bit of a fluke,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: but if you want to do that, it's first five innings,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: because yeah, the bullpen is just a mismatch in favor
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of Seattle, so I would not want to do that.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Next game up is one of my plays, So let's
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: do that. Yankees. Texas Rangers. You might know where I'm
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: going with this, because, uh, the Texas Rangers in their
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: home games. Their home games average like six runs a game.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: They have like one of the most underconducive situations in
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: baseball because they're pitching is really good and they pitching
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly ballpark. So yeah, that is what we're
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: doing under Yankees Rangers under eight and a half. And
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: I know both games in the series have gone under,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: so like, I don't know, why would I want to
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: take that trend to contain. Well, you know, it is
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: a trend, so it could definitely continue. The Rangers have
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: every game on this home stand has gone under, I
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: think except for two of them. I want to say again,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: that's it is. It's a strong trend towards the under
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: in Texas ballpark. Man, again, it's because of the pitching
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: in because of the dimensions of the ballpark. But I
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: like the pitching matchup in this game as well, so
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: I think the under makes sense. And I actually think
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: the total is too high because we have one pitcher
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: who's a complete unknown and the other pitcher who is
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: actually good, but its numbers aren't good. So I think
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: that's actually skewing the number too high here. So I
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: do like the under here. We are gonna have to
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: deal with the bullpens. But Texas does have a good bullpen.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. I'm okay with that, though,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: I think they should be okay here. Texas does have
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: one of the better bullpens in baseball. Yankees used three
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: relievers yesterday. They did use their closer yesterday, but I'm
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: still gonna roll with it. Texas again, they have one
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: of the top bullpens in baseball. You might be able
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: to argue that the best bullpen in baseball. They have
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: one of the best ras and second best whip so
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: and San Diego's falling off a little bit because of
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: their usage recently. Yankees are nineteenth. I know they don't
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: have like an elite bullpen or anything, but their bullpen
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: is not as bad as it was last year. Era
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: below four whip isn't that good. But still I'll roll
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: with it in this one, man. And I know we
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: have the Yankees with a good offense, of course, but
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: I like good pitching to defeat good offense, and Texas's
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: offense is not good. They're at twenty second, so yeah,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the Yankees obviously have the better offense, but we're looking
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: at starting pitching here is a big part of this.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: Elmer Rodriguez, the glue guy, no is pitching for the Yankees.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: He was actually drafted by the Red Sox a few
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: years back, and I'm not happy about it because he
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: looks like he might be fairly good. I looked at
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: his minor league numbers, and he's pitching well. In the mind.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: He made three starts at Triple A this year. His
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: era I think is below two in Triple A this year.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: All of his numbers look pretty good to me. In
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: the miners, like basically throughout his entire minor league career,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: he looks like he might actually be pretty decent. Like
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say he's like a top he's not
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: a top prospect or anything like that. And he gets
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: complaints about his weight because he's six four and one
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: seventy seven, Like when you're six four, he should be
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: over two hundred pounds man, So he's really thin. I'm
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: not too concerned about that though. I Mean he throws,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I know, he throws like mid to upper nineties fastball,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: but that's like what everybody does whatever. But he has
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: like a six pitch mix and he's got a sinker
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: that's really good. That induces a ton of ground balls,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: like the bottom just drops out of that thing. And
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: he's got other pitches in the mix too. I think
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: the typical stuff, slider, curveball, change, and I think he
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: throws a cutter as well. But I like this because
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: his numbers look good in the miners and this is
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: major league day. And while yes, a guy could be
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: shaky in his major league debut, I think the pressure
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: is a little bit off of him because the Yankees
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: are on the verge of a sweep peer. They have
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: a huge padding in the American League right now, and
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: in fact, the only teams within a well, actually they're
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: not that far ahead of Tampa, my mistake, but the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: only two teams with two games or more above five
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: hundred records in the AL are the Yankees and Tampa,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. But yeah, I mean, I think the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: pressure could be a little bit off of him here
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: because he's facing an offense that's not that good. They're
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: in a pitcher friendly ballpark, so I think this is
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: a fairly ideal situation for a major league debut. And
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about this when a guy is
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: not familiar to the opposing hitters. A lot of times
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the opposing hitters will not do well against him and
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: they will struggle. So we'll go with the glue guy here,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Elmer to a pitch well here. But on the other
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: side of things, we're gonna also bank on Evaldi to
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: pitch well here. I know his numbers don't look good
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: five point seven to ninety RA, one point four to
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: seven whip, but he's not that old yet really thirty six.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I know, yeah, it's a little bit old, but you
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: look at his numbers with Texas. He's gonna turn this
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: thing around. His numbers last year were absolutely elite, and
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: the numbers of the two years prior with Texas were
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He was good with the Red Sox prior
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: to that too. I mean, his numbers are not gonna
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: remain this bad, and I think you can tell that
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: if you dig into his numbers. He's got basically one
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: strikeout an inning, thirty two strikeouts, only nine walks. I
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: think he's gotten a little bit unlucky with the long ball.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: He allowed four against the A's last time out in
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: this stadium, by the way, which I know that's not
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: a good sign because this is not a home run ballpark.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: But I think he's gonna settle down because he had
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: one other fluky bad start against Baltimore, and he settled
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: right back down into better starts, so I think he
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: will bounce back. Other than that, yeah, I mean, he's
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: allowed too many hits, seven more hits than innings pitched.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: He's been too hittable. But other than that, he's got
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: a good ground ball rate, pretty good strikeout rate, so
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's anywhere near done yet. I think
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: these numbers do not indicate what he actually is. And
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees, he has good numbers and a big
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: one hundred and forty one at bat sample size, he's
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: been good thirty seven to seven strike out walk ratio
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: two pH six average, allowed five point fifty five ops.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: So even though the Yankees hitters are familiar with him,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: they haven't done well against him, with the exception of Judge,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: who does hit him pretty well, but everybody else doesn't.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: So I'm expecting pitching here. I think the total is high.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: It open at nine, which I guess he could have
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: gotten an under nine at minus one twenty briefly under
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: an eight and a half still seems pretty good to me, though, Man,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: in a setup like this, that's what we're gonna do.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: And the money seems to be kind of indicating towards Texas.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with that or not.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the market read here, which I'm not
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: used to this website. So the under has eighty two
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash, by the way,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: and the money is kind of supporting Texas a little bit,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: I think, because Evaldi should bounce, Like, you know, Evalde's
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: just not as bad as his numbers look right now.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: But I prefer the under here obviously. I think there
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: is the potential that the Yankees could be fine in
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: this game, Like the Yankees certainly might win this game.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean there is something to be said.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: You know, Texas is trying to avoid the sweep. I
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: don't know who do the Yankees playing next? Actually would
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: be the other question. I don't know, Like they might
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: overlook Texas a little bit in this game, so they
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: have Baltimore next. I mean, it is a divisional series,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: so I guess there is a possibility of a look
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: ahead there. But yeah, under is my play in that game. Kyle,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: What's up. Thanks for hanging out, yes, Elmer. Yeah, he's
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: very very thin. Yes, that is the knock on him.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: He's will call him slender man. That's what he is
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: out there. Man, He's tall and very very lanky. My
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox are at Toronto. This is not looking good. Yesterday.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I liked the under and I was right about that totally,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: was like fine in the game. But the Red Sox
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: offense could not hit it at all. They got shut
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: out three to nothing. You Savage was good in the game.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: You know, it is what it is. Maybe the Red
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Sox bounce back here because teams that gets shut out
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: usually bounce back, and Toronto was in that situation yesterday
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: because the Red Sox shut them out in the game
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: prior to that. But this game, this is not gonna
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: be a shutout. I'll tell you that right now. Both
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna score at least one run. I know
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going way out on a limb saying that in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: this one, but yeah, both teams are gonna score in
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: this game. How about that? Bullpen wise, the Red Sox
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: do have the better bullpen. They used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: not including Chapman, who is still one of the better
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: closers out there, so he's available. Today Toronto used four
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers, including their closer Hoffman, who has not been
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: that good. Actually, I think they might have moved him
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: out of the closer role. Toronto's got some bullpen issues man,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: so yeah, the Red Sox do have the better bullpen.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Their fourth in bullpen Whip Toronto is fifteenth, but their
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: era is pretty iffy. In the fours, Toronto has had
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the better offense, but not by a ton. The Red
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Sox have been really struggling offensively, though at twenty eighth
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: they should improve. At some point Toronto should as well,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: though they're at twenty six, but they've been dealing with
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: more injuries than the Red Sox have. But the Red
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Sox offense has at least been better in the Chad
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Tracy era, and yesterday was their first loss in the
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Tracy era. I think the Red Sox were three and
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: oh under Chad Tracy until that, I know they were
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: two and oh, my mistake, but they had won three
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: games in a row. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Brian
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Beao is pitching for them. They got to get rid
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: of this guy. Dude, like, do you seriously not have
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: anybody else that could take his place in the rotation?
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Red Sox rotation is pretty good. We need to get
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Sonny Gray back, man, that's what we need, and then
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: toss Bayo out of the rotation. I'm done with this guy.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: He fucking blows nine ERA two point twenty seven whip.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I've been saying he sucks every year for his entire career. Dude, people,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: Oh no, his ERA is usually good. Yeah, fuck that.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: He usually puts way too many guys on base. He
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: fucking sucks. His advanced analytics suck. His last outing, he
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: got blasted for thirteen hits, eight aron runs, five home
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: runs in three and a third innings against Baltimore. He's
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: not gonna be that bad again, probably because that's impossible,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: but he fucking blows. The Red Socks have lost four
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: of his five starts. Fifteen to thirteen strike at walker ratio,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: eight home runs allowed and almost two hits allowed per inning,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: thirty seven hits and twenty two innings pitched. He is
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: putting more than two guys on basin inning. Fuck that.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know why he's still even going out there.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: His numbers against the Blue Jays, of course, they suck.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Seventy five bats, seventeen to six strike out walk ratio
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: three twenty average allowed, eight thirty seven ops. No thank you.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Eric Lower is pitching for Toronto, and based off of
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: what we saw out of him last year, he should
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: be better than what his numbers are right now. He's
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: better than Bao. I'll tell you that six point seven
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: five ERA and one point five for whip. Those are
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: bad numbers. I definitely don't disagree on nineteen strike out
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: swave walks in twenty three hits a lot in twenty
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: two and two thirds innings. I know that's not good.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three earned runs in each of his last
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: couple of starts, which is a little bit of an improvement.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: I guess He's only on five innings, though, and Toronto's
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: lost four starts in a row for him. Lucky for him,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: he gets to match up against absolute trash on the
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: other side of the mound for the Red Sox. Lower,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: though his numbers against the Red Sox are not good.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: In fifty nine at bats, thirteen to four strike out
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: walk ratio Trevor Story, believe it or not, Even though
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: he can't hit the broadside of a barn right now
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: actually is nine for twenty five with three homers off him. Overall,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have a three thirty nine average, oneenty
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: twenty five ops against him, thirteen to four strike out
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Yeah, in case it's not obvious, I like
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: the over in this game. That's what I would go with.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Even though I like the Red Sox bullpen. I think
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: this thing could get a little bit out of control,
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: could cascade into the bullpens. I'm gonna slightly lean Toronto
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: in the first five as well. I don't like their
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: bullpen though, as you know, but there minus won twenty three.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: I think lower based on what we saw last year.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: He's even though he's not great, he's clearly better than Bao.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: But both pictures have bad matchup numbers, dude, So I
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: would prefer to go over in this game. We have
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of tickets, sixty six percent of the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. The Red Sox are actually getting
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the money. I don't agree with that. Really. If you
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: go Red Sox, he definitely got to go full game
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: and hope that their bullpen could save them. Sixty three
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets nine one percent of the cash on
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. But yeah, my preference in that game
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: is definitely over. I'm tempted to make it a play,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: but I think there is a decent chance that lower
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: might actually be okay in the game, So I don't know.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay off of it slightly. But that is
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: one of my stronger opinions. I think I would say
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: would be to the over in that one. All right,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: we gotta get through these man. This is taken forever
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Miami at the Dodgers. Dodgers actually lost yesterday, believe it
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: or not, and almost lost the first game as well.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Miami's put up a good fight in the series. The
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Dodgers had to. I think they needed like a three
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: run home run in the ninth inning to win the
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: first game. And then I guess Otani was not in
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: the lineup yesterday because he was pitching, which I think
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers should just put him in the lineup anyway.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Although the Dodgers have such a good lineup it shouldn't
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: really matter. But they did not hit well yesterday. They
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: might bounce back here because they are the Dodgers and
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: they lost as a big favorite yesterday. The Dodgers' bullpen
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers. Miami used four, but they only
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: used a couple of them for single pitch counts, so
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: single digit pitch counts, that's not too bad. Miami has
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: the eleventh best bullpen based on WHIP, which is not
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: too bad. The Dodgers, believe it or not. A third Now.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Dodgers' bullpen is that good, but
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: they're decent. Both of these bullpens I think are okay,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: so I would not necessarily avoid the bullpens here. The
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: rest is kind of normal for the bullpens. Miami has
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: been twelfth in hitting still, which that's not bad, but
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: we know the Dodgers are the best offense in baseball.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Sandy o Contra is pitching for Miami. He's got good
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: numbers overall, three point zero five ERA, one point one
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: to one WHIP. But the Cy Young talk that was
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: going around, that's definitely that's out the window. He got
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: destroyed by Detroit, and then he did settle down a
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: bit with a couple of decent starts, I guess in
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: his last couple outings, but he gave up six walks
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: in the one against Milwaukee, so that's still a big concern. Really.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: He bounced back. He had a pretty good outing against
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: San Francisco last time out, but that's a bad offense
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Overall, his numbers are kind
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: of concerning, Like it's too many walks. Man, He's just
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: not I don't think he's ever going to be back
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: to what he once was before he had all the
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: injury issues. Twenty seven to thirteen strike out walk ratio,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: it is definitely too many walks. The strikeout rate is
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: way down to which is alarming. Like a guy like him,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: he used to strikeout guys at a really high rate
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: and he's not doing that this year. In forty one
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: to third inning, he's only thirty three hits allowed. So
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: he is, I guess, you know, being smart with his
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: pitches and not allowing that many hits. But the walks
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: are concerned. The strikeout rate being down is a concern.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: It basically probably means his velocity is down. Numbers against
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers not good. In one hundred and five at bats,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: twenty two to twelve strike out walk ratio three twenty
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: four average allowed, nine to forty six obs is not good.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: So the Dodgers can definitely hit him, and he's going
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: up against Tyler Glasnow, who is one of the Dodgers'
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: best pitchers, if not the best. Two point four to
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: five VRA point seven whip. He's coming off a one hit,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: eight inning shutout against the Giants on the road. The
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have won all five of his starts thirty eight
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: to seven strike out walk ration, only sixteen hits alloted
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: thirty three innings. He's allowing fewer than one hit every
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: two winnings. Yeah, I mean, his numbers are excellent, there's
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: no way around that. And Miami somehow has not even
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: seen that much of him, you know. I mean, he
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: hasn't been on the Dodgers for that long, and he's
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: been hurt for a bit of it too. He was
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: on Tampa before that. But Tampa, but they're Miami's natural
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: interleague rival. I don't know. But Tampa only has two
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: guys who faced him before. One of them is al Contra,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: so he's not gonna hit. So you could throw that out.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Ruiz is the only actual hitter who faced him, and
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: he's one for three with a single off him. So
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Glasnow actually has an un familiarity edge against Miami. Even
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: though he's a veteran pitcher, he's got the better numbers,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: He's in better form right now. Dodgers have a pretty
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: big advantage in this game as far as I can tell. Man.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Problem is, you gotta lay a huge price with them.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: They're minus two thirty something. Here, what's the actual number?
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Let me see minus two eighteen, you know. I mean,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I still think the way to play this is this
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: might be one of the rare situations where I would say,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: probably the best way to play this is actually the
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Dodgers on the run line, even though I know they
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: have not covered that in either game this year, in
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: either game this series, I mean, and they almost lost
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: both of them. But the Dodgers typically they do cover
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: that when they win. So that's probably what I would do,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: even though a lot of professional betters tell you not to.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: The minus one and a half run line is what
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about, because the home with the home team,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, because they don't bat in the ninth inning
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: if they're winning. But if they're winning, this a decent
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: chance they will be winning by more than one run.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: But of course they could give up some runs in
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: the top of the ninth. But yeah, I think I
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: would still probably lean that way in that game. Not
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: gonna make my car though. Cubs at San Diego, this
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: has been an interesting series. San Diego came back from
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: Mexico City and still had a good game. Boy, there
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: was something wrong with him in that game. Man, I
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: apologize for that. Under that was really really bad. Hopefully
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: we do much better today San Diego. After that win
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: in the first game of the Cubs got them back yesterday.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: I think the Cubs are the better team all around,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: not in every facet of the game, but the Cubs
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: are the better team so and these teams. I don't
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: know if they play tomorrow or not, but this is
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: a big series for both teams. I think they will
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: both show up in what has many an even series
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: so far. Cubs used two relief pitchers yesterday. San Diego
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: used four, although some of their better relievers did not
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: get into the game. And by the way, Mason Miller
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: he got screwed two days ago, I mentioned that he
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: finally gave up run. If you guys saw how that happened,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: it was a ground ball down the third baseline and
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: San Diego's third third baseman which I guess is Machado, right,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: is that who they have? Not a fan of him,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: by the way, he let it go foul, and it
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: absolutely went foul. The entire ball was in foul territory
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: before he touched it, and the umpire ruled it fair,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: so he wound up being an infield single. I'm like,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: what the fuck? Like, what what is that? It was? Yeah,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: it was a horrible call. I don't even know. I
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: don't know, like you would think you should be able
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: to challenge that. It made no sense. I don't know
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: what that was. But that's how Miller lost whatever streak
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: he had. I don't know if it was a hitless
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: streak or a scoreless streak or both, but whatever, he's
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: the best closer out there and he's he is available today.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: But the Cubs have a little bit more rested of
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: a bullpen, and their bullpen is not bad. San Diego's
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: has fallen to eleventh and whip, although I think San
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Diego does still have a top bullpen in baseball. The
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Cubs at worst are not that much worse in the
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: ball pen, though, and the Cubs definitely have the better offense.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: They're fourth in offense. San Diego is somewhere middle of
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: the pack twenty first actually, so yeah, the Cubs do
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: have an advantage there. This pitching matchup is not great.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: Cubs have Jamison tie On pitching. His numbers are not
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: that great this year four point five to five RA,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: one point three whip. I think he is a little
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: bit better than that, though, and at least he gets
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: to pitch in a pitcher friendly ballpark here. But his
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: numbers overall are not really that good. Twenty five to
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: twelve strikeout walk ratio, twenty four hits a lot in
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: twenty seven to two thirds innings is not that bad.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: The problem is the walks and that he's allowed seven
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: home runs. But this is a less home run could
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: douce a ballpark, so he might do better in this one.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Cubs have won his last three outings. He's gotten a
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: decent amount of run support behind him in those outings, though,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't been horrible for the most part. I mean,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know one of those out he's to give
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: six runs, but he had ten strikeouts against Pittsburgh and
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: then you know, I mean he walked multiple guys in
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: all the outings, which is kind of a problem, But
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: maybe you give him a little bit of a pass
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: for having a little bit of an iffy outing against
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. I mean, the Dodgers are a really difficult
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: lineup to go up against. San Diego. Isn't really His
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against San Diego in ninety at bats,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: seventeen to three strikeout walk ratio two thirty three average,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: six to twenty five ops allowed. That's not bad. Matt Waldron,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: the knuckleballer is pitching for San Diego here, he's been
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: pretty bad so far. Twelve point four to six ERA,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: two point three to one whip. He isn't that bad.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Knuckleball pitchers are very high variants, but like he just
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: came back from injuries, only made two starts this year.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: If you look at his actual you know, seasons where
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: he's actually pitched, like for a decent sample size, he's
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: actually been fairly consistent. Like these are like Tim Wakefield
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: numbers where it's like there's this high variance start to start,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: but like his season in numbers seem like they're pretty
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: consistent and kind of in the mediocre range. So that's
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: not really that bad. This is his first start at home, too,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: so That might help him a little bit because it's
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly ballpark here, and he had to pitch
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: in Anaheim and at Colorado, and those are not good
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: pitcher parks. Colorado, we had the over in that one,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: by the way, that that was a pretty easy winner
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: with the over in that game. He might do a
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: little bit better here in this one. The Cubs actually
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: have not really seen him. Only Bregman and Conforto have
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: seen him before. Conforto is the only hit a double.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: They're combined one for seven, often with no strikeouts and
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: no walks. So Waldron might actually do okay in this game.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: I might actually slightly lean San Diego here. I would
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: probably go full game because they're better bullpen arms are
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: available here. Cubs are at minus one eleven, even though
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: the Cubs definitely have the better offense, but pitching might
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: be able to counter that. And I think Waldron might
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: be sneaking a little bit under the radar here. Nobody's
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: gonna want to play in San Diego with him bitching man.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: The money is indicating sort of towards the Cubs, though
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of tickets seventy five percent of the
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: cash on the Cubs. I don't know. I mean, Tai
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: On doesn't have that. His numbers are not that bad
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: either though against San Diego, so you know, an under
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: actually might be a look in this game as well.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: You know, I this game was hard for me to
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: figure out, but the total looks like it's getting some
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: money on the over seventy percent of tickets seventy eight
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: The more I think about it, an under makes some
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: sense in that game too. The totals at nine, well
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: probably I don't know, nine heavily juice to the under.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: It's probably really at eight and a half. But you know,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: that seems a little bit high for a San Diego
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: game in San Diego, so I don't know. I mean
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: some of it is because, well, I think these pitchers
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: are a little bit better than their numbers look, so
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: the under may actually be the way to look there,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: and the matchups don't that bad for them. Plus the
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: bullpens are both fairly good. So yeah, maybe an under
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: is actually the better approach in that game. But you know,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: if it's gonna be a close, low scoring game, San
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Diego definitely has a chance to win, so there is
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: that too, but yeah, maybe under is better, all right.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Houston at Baltimore this is my other actual play. I
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I'm a little bit worried about this,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: this one. We're gonna go Houston in the first five innings.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: I found it at plus one oh two at the
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: book that starts with a B that shares their name
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: with the Jim. That has limited me because they have
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: some kind of lousy numbers that are out there. They
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: give you better numbers, man, they're screwing up. But still
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: I think you can find Houston in the first five
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: innings at a decent price here at like minus one
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: oh five, probably something in that range. Obviously, we're gonna
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: exclude the Houston bullpen. Houston's bullpen is an hour absolute disaster,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: so we want nothing to do with the bullpen. They
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday, whatever. I don't know what's
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: going on with them. I think their closer is still hurt.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: They got to do something with that bullpen, man, it
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: is bad. Baltimore's bullpen is the better of the two.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: They used four relief pitchers yesterday, but Houston's bullpen is
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: so bad. I want no part of it era and
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: the sixes. They have the worst whip and ERA. Yeah,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: real bad stuff. Baltimore fourth best in whipp although their
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: ERA is above four. So I don't think Baltimore's really
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: a top ten bullpen, but I think they're like a
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: decent bullpen. Hitting wise, Houston has still been near the top.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: They're at third in offense, so we will get their
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: offense backing us here, even though I tend to like
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: pitching over offense. But we'll talk about the starting pitching
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: in a minute, because I think it's really bad on
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: the Baltimore side. Baltimore has been okay offensively at ninth,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: but you look at the starting pitching matchup. Yeah, we're
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: actually gonna back Peter Lambert here and man, and I
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: know we went with an over in one of his
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: games against Saint Louis, and he actually didn't pitch bad
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: in that game. He gave up four earned runs. The bullpen,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: of course, was part of that handicap though the bullpen
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: got destroyed in that game. But you look at his numbers.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: He had eight strikeouts one walk in that outing, and
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: then he followed that up with a six inning shutout
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: of Cleveland where he did walk three guys. But he's
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: got sixteen strikeouts in eleven innings, ten hits allout of
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: four walks so far. I mean, yeah, the walks is, yeah,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit high, but his strikeout rate is
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: really high. Overall three point two seventy R one point
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: two seven WHIP. I think Lambert might actually be okay.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, he was drafted as kind of a top
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: prospect years ago by Colorado and then I forgot who
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: he was. He never panned out, but maybe that's because
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: you know, if you're a prospect and you have to
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: pitch a Corse field, yeah that's not good. You know
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: some I know Houston They're pitching has been horrible, but
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: some of their starting pitching is okay. And he might
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: be okay as well. And he's got the extra advantage
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: of being unfamiliar to Baltimore. They have four hitters who
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: faced him before. Only Alonso has had any success off him.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: He has both of their hits. They're combined two for
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: nine off him. One of those hits is a triple
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, one walk, so it's a two twenty two
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: average seven to forty four ohps. Overall, I think Lambert
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: might be able to get us there in this game, man,
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: with the unfamiliarity here, the current form looks pretty good
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: for him. He's going up against Chris Bassett, and while
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: I know Bassett is notoriously better at home, and he
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: is this year too, that's still bad. He's his ERA
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: at home, even though it's better than on the road,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: it's five and overall his numbers six point seven five ERA,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: two point zero six whip. He's getting knocked around a bit. Man.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I know Baltimore's won his last three outings, but he's
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: gotten some run support behind him. Two of those out
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: he's he actually pitched okay, but you look at his
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: overall numbers. These are horrible numbers. Ten strikeouts and thirteen
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: walks and twenty one to third innings on top of
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: thirty one hits a loud. That's really bad. Way too
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: many walks and way too many hits a lout, and
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: the strikeout walk ratio is abysmo as well, bad strike
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: out rad. There's nothing to really like about Bassett right now.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: He's kind of an older pitcher and he's never really
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: been that good throughout his career. So I was, you know,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: sounding the alarm last year when like all the like
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: professional handicappers are like, yeah, man, Chris Bassett, like he
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: throws this fastball in all these different ways and whatever.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, but like that's more of like what
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: a relief pitcher might do, like you just mix up
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: your fastball a bunch whatever. And he's thirty seven, it's
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: like he's going He's not going out there and throwing
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: one hundred mile an hour gas, you know what I mean.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: So he's not doing that either. Major league hitters can
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: hit these fastballs, and he started to suck at the
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: end of last year, and I was saying, I don't
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: think he's that good. I think I've been proven correct.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: And his numbers he gets Houston are bad. They have
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of familiarity with him. One hundred and twenty
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: five at bats, eighteen strikeouts, thirteen walks, nine home runs
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: off him. Jurdan Alvarez kills him nine for twenty two
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: with five home runs off him, four strikeouts, three walks
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: overall two eighty eight batting average eight ninety nine ops allowed.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: A lot of these guys hit him well. I think
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Bassett is kind of up against it in this one man.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with Houston first five innings exclude
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: the bullpens. Baltimore dropped for minus one thirty to minus
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: one twenty three on the full game. The full game
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: total is high. It's at nine. I mean, I understand that.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I think there probably will be some runs in this game.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Houston's bullpen could get lit up later in the game,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna try to avoid that by going first
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: five innings here, and then we don't even give a
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: shit if Houston's bullpen is as horrible as they usually are. Unfortunately,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: we have seventy six percent of tickets and only sixty
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on Houston. It looks like
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: right now, I don't know why they'd be a public side, though,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: I doubt that. I don't think anybody wants Houston. Why
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: would anybody want Houston in this game? I don't know. Man.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: Baltimore did win the game yesterday, by the way, so
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: you know, Houston. I guess you could make the argument
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: they're in bounced back mode. But Baltimore, I know they're
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: below five hundred, but look at Houston's record eleven and nineteen.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Nobody wants Houston right now, So yeah, I don't buy
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: that Houston's a public side or anything like that. So
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go with Houston first five innings in that one,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: and then I have an NBA play as well next game.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I almost wanted to give out a play on this
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: one too. Colorado at Cincinnati. Cincinnati won seven to two
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: yesterday behind a pretty good start from Chase Burns, where
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: I thought Cincinnati did have a pretty big advantage there
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: this game, I don't think they do, so I actually
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: like the Rockies in this game. But you know, the
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Rockies did just lose a win streak, so I do
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit. They'd swept the Mets
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: and then they lost, and sometimes when that happens, you'll
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: be hung over into the next game. I don't know
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: if I'm gonna fully want to trust the Rockies here,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: but I do lean their way. The Rockies bullpen is
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: very rested. They were all off on Monday and then
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: yesterday they only use Gordon, who's like a long relief man.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: So their bullpen is, even though it's not great, their
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: bullpen is rested coming into this one. Cincinnati's bullpen, I
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: think their eray is making them a little bit overrated
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: these three relief pitchers yesterday. They were also off on Monday.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Though Cincinnati's bullpen does have one of the better rays
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: in the twos, but their whip is one point three seven,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: putting them eighteenth, so I think they are kind of
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: a mediocre bullpen. I think Colorado is too, though, but
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge disparity between these two bullpens,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: so you know, I don't think there's a huge edge
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: one way or the other right now there. Hitting wise,
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: the Rockets have been the better offense, believe it or not,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: even though they're not that good on the road. This
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly ballpark. At least they're fourteenth in
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: offense right now. The Reds are twenty second. Reds have
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: not hit very well. But I actually like Colorado's starting
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: pitcher better in this matchup with Tomo Yuki Sugano. Dude,
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: he seems to do well when he's unfamiliar to the
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: opposing hitters, Like once he gets figured out, he's not
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: quite as good. But he's not doing that bad even
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: though he's having to pitch a course field. His overall
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: numbers three point four two ERA, one point one four
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: whip you think he'd be worse because I think he
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: is kind of a fly ball pitcher, which might not
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: play well in this stadium. But he's been pitching pretty
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: well so far, and the fact that he does pitch
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: in a hit or friendly stadium now might mean that
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna be intimidated playing in another one here
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: in Cincinnati. Overall, numbers not bad. I mean, he's not
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: really a strikeout guy. In nineteen strikeouts in twenty six
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: and a third innings, but six walks twenty four hits
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: a low that's not that bad to allowed him to
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: overcome the five home runs, which is a little bit high. Yeah,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, overall, he hasn't been very he hasn't been
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: too bad. Man. One of his losses, his only really
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: bad start was against the Dodgers, and that was his
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: only loss and one of two losses that Colorado took
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: with him on the mound. Besides that Dodger game, which
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: was at home, He's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: in every outing, and his ERA has been a little
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: bit better on the road than at home two point
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: five to three. So all of that is kind of
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: indicating in his direction. And Cincinnati only has Nathaniel Lowe,
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: who's ever faced him before. He's one for eight with
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: a strikeout and no walks. So there's unfamiliarity here with
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Sugano as well, which I think helps him over the
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: opposing bats. He's going up against Brandon Williamson, who is
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: not pitching well for Cincinnati. Five point four e RA
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: one point five to two whip. That's not good. His
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: walk numbers are atrocious. In his last three outings, three
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: or more walks and all three outings, and he's only
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: made it past five innings in one of those outings.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: This is not good. He's had more walks than strikeouts.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: Fifteen strikeouts, sixteen walks, twenty two hits allowed and twenty
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: five innings. The number of hits aloud isn't bad, but
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: that walk number is absolutely horrific. So he is not
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: doing well against Colorado. So they don't have a huge
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: sample size against him, so he might not do horrible here,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: but they have three uners who have seen him. They're
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: three for eight, a double from McCarty against him, a
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: home run from Tovar, those are the usual suspects. They
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: got two strikeouts, no walks against him. It's a three
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: seventy five average and twelve fifty ops, which are not
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: good numbers, but it's a very small sample. But still,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: I prefer Sugano here man, And you know the bullpens,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: there's not too much of a disparity there, So I'm
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: gonna lean Colorado. I would go Colorado. Make your own
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: plus one run line, or find a plus one run
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: line out there, that would be my opinion in that game.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: I like Colorado. I don't know what the numbers say.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: As far as Colorado is concerned, They're getting a lot
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: of the money. Cincinnati is fifty four percent of tickets,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on Colorado. I hope I'm
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: not picking the wrong game here man, because I do
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: like Colorado. Total is high at nine and a half,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: which might worry you a little bit with taking a
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: team to cover a run line, but you know, I
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: think that's the way to go, though, or you could
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: go money line. I mean, Cincinnati's only in the minus
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: one fifties, minus one forties now, but make your own
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: plus one run line sounds pretty good to me in
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: that one, all right. San Francisco at Philadelphia on MLB Network.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia won yesterday seven and nothing in a return home spot, Philadelphia,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe starting to play a little bit better here.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: They're not really that bad of a team, but you know,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: coming off a shutout like that, sometimes the team will
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: kind of, you know, have a step backwards after that,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: and a team that got shut out might show up
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: with a little bit more effort here. Although San Francisco
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: does not have a good offense though, or at least
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: they underperformed dramatically, what their talent is, they do have
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: a good bullpen. The only these two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen over Philadelphia. Philadelphia also used
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: two relievers, but we got to give the bullpen edge
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: to the Giants here. They're in the top seven right
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: now and WHIP I think they're a top probably five
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen in my opinion. Philadelphia is at seventeenth in WHIP.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: They're not horrible, but they're not great. Hitting wise. Philadelphia
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: I think does have the better offense, even though they
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: haven't been good. They're twenty seventh, the Giants twenty ninth
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: in OPS. But Philly I think does have a lot
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: more upside. They have better bats, so I think they
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense starting pitching matchup is interesting.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Logan Webb is pitching for the Giants, and he is,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: you know, their guy. He goes deep into outings. He
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: typically pitches better at home, though he does better at
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: home than on the road. That has been the case
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: this year too, slightly. Although his numbers overall aren't that
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: good this year four point eight six eram one point
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: three to eight whip. But you look at his career numbers,
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: he is better than this. I mean he's not like
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: an absolute, like you know, totally dominant pitcher, but he
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: is pretty good and he's better than this. His numbers
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: overall really don't look that bad. Thirty two to thirteen
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. He's not necessarily a huge strikeout guy.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Thirty eight hits lout on thirty seven innings. I mean,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: these numbers are not egregious. So you know, he's given
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: up four fewer earned runs in every start except his
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: first start against the Yankees. Yeah, I mean, he's faced
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: a couple of difficult offenses in the mix there too.
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: I think he might be able to pitch well here.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia struggles against him. In sixty four at bats, they
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: have twenty one strikeouts, three walks one eighty eight to
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: average five thirty six ops Logan Web pitches well against
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia typically, although I worry about him a little bit
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: on the road, but he looks to match up pretty
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: well here. Christopher Sanchez pitching for the Phillies. He's been
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: pretty good for them. But you look at his numbers.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: These numbers are crazy, dude. Two point nine four era
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: is really good, but one point six whip is terrible.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Like that whip should indicate that your era should be
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: like five. And while I'm not gonna say that he's
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: that bad, I don't think his era should be five,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: but that whip is terrible, And like, what's going on here? Well,
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: he has forty three strikeouts in thirty three and two
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: there is in he's that's good. He's striking guys out
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: ten walks okay, and that's a little bit high. But
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: combined with the strikeouts, that ratio is really good. He's
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: inducing a lot of ground balls. None of this looks
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: bad except he's allowed forty four hits over that span. Like,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: what's the deal here? Man? But basically it came in
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: two starts where San Francisco got a bunch of hits
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: against him, and then Chicago. The Cubs had a bunch
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: of hits against him, but they saw him twice in
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: quick succession, so I think they were able to hit
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: him better in the next time because they had just
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: seen him. I might give him a little bit of
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: a pass for that man. So that's the worry because
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean to the Giants in this game
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: to bounce back from the shutout, and I like their
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers a little bit better. And I think, you know,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: the whip is a little bit of a hidden disadvantage
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: against Sanchez here because he has put way too many
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: guys on base so far. The Giants did see him though,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: like I said, and that was another one of his
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: bad starts this season, but it was also on the road.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: He is better at home this year significantly, with a
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: one point one sixty RA at home, so I don't
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: really want to fade him in this outing. But his
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Giants are not very good. In eighty
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: one at bats twenty three to four strike a walk
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: ratio that is good, but two ninety six average seven
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: to seventy four ohps allowed the Giants, believe it or not,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: have been able to hit him so I am gonna
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: lean to the Giants in this game. Still, I think
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: they have the better pitching matchup in the starting pitching,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: and I think they have the better bullpen. I know
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen. U Philadelphia is a public side,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent of
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, So the money looks like it
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: is fading Philadelphia, and they're the public is just coming
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: in on Philly, man, because they've won two of three.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: Let's jump right back on Philly. It makes sense to
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: me because the public sees them as being the better offense,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: which they are. But I'm gonna lean towards pitching here,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: and I think that is the San Francisco side. Plus,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna see these eras and only want
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: Sanchez here. But as I just showed, you can definitely
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: like he definitely has the potential to outpitch Sanchez in
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: this game, you know what I mean? Like, I think
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: it's a lot closer than what those eras make it look.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that game. Where are
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: we at here, We're basically at the hour mark here,
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna take a break, come back and
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: then we'll do this and then we'll do the playoff stuff. Right,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: I do have one NBA play so I'll be back
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: in a second. All right, let's finish off baseball here.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: Next game up is Saint Louis Pittsburgh, where we saw
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: that onslaught of runs in yesterday's game, and if you
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: did play the over that I gave out on the
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: show in the morning, it won. But I got concerned
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: when I saw Ashcraft listed as the starter for Pittsburgh
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: and that he was coming back, because I thought he
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: definitely had a chance to pitch well there. But it
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: didn't matter. You know. The bullpens were certainly part of
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: the handicap. They didn't do well. The starting pitching wasn't
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: good on either side, so it still wound up going
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: way over the time. Saint Louis used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh only used one, so Pittsburgh did save like all
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: their better relievers pretty much. So Pittsburgh's bullpen is in
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: a lot better shape coming into this game than yesterday's game.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: We're gonna give Pittsburgh the bullpen edge here. They do
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: have it. They're more rested, and they're fourteenth than whip.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis Battye RA above five in the bullpen, and
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: they're twenty third and whip, So yeah, you gotta give
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: the bullpen edge to Pittsburgh offensively. Saint Louis is up
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: to ninth in ops, believe it or not, after what
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: happened yesterday, Pittsburgh is where are they at? I don't
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: even see Pittsburgh on here. I thought they were. Yeah,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: there's somewhere middle of the pack aegt the eighteenth, all right,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I'm not quite so sure that I would
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: give Saint Louis that much of an offensive edge here though,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: And starting pitching, I like Pittsburgh starter a lot better here.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: I think he has way more upside. But he hasn't
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: been pitching that well, so I worry. Andre Piante is
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Cardinals. I don't think he's very good.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: Four point two sixty RA that's not horrible. One point
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: four to two whip is pretty bad, though. He's walked,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: you know, three or more in all but one outing
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: this year. That's not good. Twenty strikeouts, fourteen walks and
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: twenty five and a third. That's way too many walks.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: He's not really a huge strikeout guy either, but he
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: does get a lot of ground balls, which kind of
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: gets him out of some jams that he's in. But
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: you want, ideally, you want a pitcher that's not even
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: putting themselves in jams. He's allowed fewer than one hit
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: per inning, which is fine. That's pretty good. But other
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: than that, I don't like his numbers. I don't really
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: like him. Nothing personal. I don't think he's that good.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Numbers against Pittsburgh are good though, in seventy at bats
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: thirteen to seven strikeout walk raceio. That's again way too
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: many walks, but one seventy one average allowed in six
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: thirty two ops. That allows you to overlook the walks
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit. He has generally pitched pretty well against Pittsburgh.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler, our guy pitching for the Pirates. Here, he's
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: trying to make himself look like Paul Skeins. He's gonna
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: have to pitch better than that if he wants to
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: look like him. His numbers are not great this year
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: four point eight eight ERA one point five whip, even
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: though I like the potential that he has, but his
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: numbers overall they're pretty ugly. Twenty one strike, got sixteen walks,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: that is way too many walks. Twenty hits all out
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: in twenty four innings. That's pretty good. But I mean
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: these numbers, yeah, I mean they don't look that much
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: different from Payantes, so that is kind of an issue.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: He got lit up in his last start at Texas,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: which is not a good sign because that's not a
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: great offense and that's a pitcher friendly ballpark, so you
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: don't like to see that. I worry about Chandler right now, man,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: even though I think he has the potential to be
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: a pretty good pitcher. Saint Louis does not have good
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: numbers against the MO. It's a very small eleven at
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: bat sample size. Although they've had seven guys who have
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: faced him. They only have one hit, which is a
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: single from piace Uh. They have two strikeouts, no walks
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: against them, an oh ninety one average and one two ops.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: You know, this could actually be a sneaky under in
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. Like, both pitchers don't have good numbers,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: but they do have decent matchup numbers against these opposing offenses.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument from an under verst five here.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's bullpen I wouldn't be worried about keeping them in
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: the under equation, but Saint Louis's bullpen I would not
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with, So that's why I would
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: go first five. First five under makes some sense here.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh dropped for minus one fifty five to minus one thirty.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: It looks like there is some money coming in against them.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: I can't figure this game out, though, so this game
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: is not one that I really want anything to do with.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: According to wager talk, the money looks like it is
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: hitting Pittsburgh, though after the line dropped it might have
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: been a fake move to get a better number on Pittsburgh.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent of tickets, seventy four percent of cash
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. Now, I don't really disagree with Pittsburgh because
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I think Chandler does have the higher ceiling here, could
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: pitch better, and I don't think there's a big offensive
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: edge onemany or the other in Pittsburgh has the more
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: rested and less bad bullpens. So I don't really disagree
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh. There. Washington at the Mets, Matt's gotta win
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: yesterday eight to nothing. What do you know after they
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: got swept by the Rockies. I told you I did
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: lean to the Mets yesterday. My opinion on that game
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: was to play the run line. I guess maybe we
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: should have added added it to the card man that was.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Clay Holmes pitched in that game. I'm not
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: a huge fan of him, but it was against Zach Lateel,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: so you know, it was definitely a pitching mismatch in
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: favor of the Mets. They did win pretty easily. Bullpen wise,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: the Mets only used two guys yesterday. They did use Kimbrol,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: though I don't believe they're using him as a closer.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: They got a lot of guys who are kind of questionable.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: Made Kimber I mean, he used to be good a
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: long time ago. Williams and Weaver in the bullpen from
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Yeah, that bad Yankees bullpen last year. I
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, this Mets bullpen. Their numbers are pretty
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: good though, so and they have a better bullpen than Washington,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: who has a very bad bullpen. Washington used two relief
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: pitchers Yesterday'm looking at the bullpen, Washington twenty fifth in
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen whip and their eras above five. That's all pretty bad.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: The Mets bullpen is ninth in whip, pretty good era
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: in the threes, so they definitely have the better bullpen.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Washington has the better offense, but they've fallen off a
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: bit third fifteenth. I really just don't think Washington is
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: that good in any particular phase of the game. Really.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: The Mets offense has really struggled. Though they're still at
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the bottom at thirtieth, but I think their offense is
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: at least better than that as they start getting these
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: guys back and whatever. Kde Cavally is pitching for Washington, he's,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of interesting. Yes, he's got a four
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: point zero one, which isn't too bad. One point six
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: to six whip is really bad, but you look at
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: what he's done recently, not that bad. Washington has lost
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: five of his starts in a row, but his last
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: two starts to give up three runs in a combined
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: nine innings and had fifteen strikeouts and no walks, even
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: though he don't allow too many hits fourteen hits, but
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: you know, his strikeout stuff appears to be there right now.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: His command looks like it's getting better, so that's a
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: good thing. Although overall he has twenty eight strikeouts and
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: twelve walks, which is not a good ratio, and twenty
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: nine hits a lot in twenty four to two thirds innings.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: But the strikeout stuff kind of looks like it's there
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: and coming around, along with fewer walks, so that's not
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: that bad. The Mets only have three hitters I've ever
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: faced him before. They are three for six with three
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: singles off him, no strikeouts, no walks. But there is
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: the potential that Cavali actually does pitch well here against
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: you know, a struggling Mets lineup. David Peterson pitching for
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: the Mets. I'm not a fan of Peterson, as you
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: guys know, five point oh six cra one point six
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: y five whip. I don't think he's that bad. Those
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: are bad numbers. I think he is better than that.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: He probably will improve on that, but his numbers overall
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: are not great. Twenty four strikeouts, eleven walks. That's too
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: many walks as you usually get with him. He walks
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: too many guys and he usually gets a lot of
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: ground ball outs, which is what he's doing. He's allowed
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: thirty three hits in twenty six to two thirds innings,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: though that's pretty bad. And he's failed to go more
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: than He's failed to even make it four innings in
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: his last two outings. That's not a good sign against Washington.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not great. In eighty five at bats
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: seventeen to three strikeout walk ratios fine two eighty two
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: average is pretty high. Six seventy five ops is not
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: that high, though he's not allowed a lot of walks
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: or extra base hits to them. Although Weimer Wimer the
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: Whimer Republic, He's got a four for six clip with
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: two doubles and a home run off him, so he's
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the one hitter really does a ton of damage against Peter.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Luis Garcia six for eighteen is all right, two with
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: a double. Yeah, I mean, I think I'm gonna lean
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: to Washington in that game first five. I would not
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: want to do a full game. I don't want anything
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: to do with the Washington bullpen. But fifty percent of
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: tickets are on the Mets, fifty nine percent of the
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: cashual Washington. I think I would. Yeah, I would agree
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: with Cavali actually potentially being able to outpitch Peterson in
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. There not gonna do anything with
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: Washington's bullpen. Though, So those are my thoughts on that game.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Atlanta. This is an interesting game, dude. The
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is pretty interesting. Atlanta won yesterday five to two.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: Martine Perez continuing to pitch pretty well for Atlanta men,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Atlanta getting the most out of their players. They only
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday and didn't really use any
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: of their back end relief men. I don't believe so
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: that's decent. Actually, maybe they did. I don't know who's
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: their closer. I actually don't even know, uh so maybe
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong about that. Anyway, I just saw fuint As
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: in there. I'm like, he's kind of a long relief guy,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: but I don't know because he did start one of
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: their games not too long ago. Anyway, I'm rambling. Detroit's
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: bullpen is worse. They used three relief pitchers yesterday. Bullpen
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: edge goes to Atlanta. They're number one in whip and
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: they're one of the better eras as well. They're definitely
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: at least I think, like a top several bullpen. Detroit's
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: bullpen has struggled. They're twenty fourth, although the era is
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: not quite that bad in the fours, but Obviously Atlanta
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. Atlanta's hitting has been good at second,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: but Detroit has moved up to sixth. I don't think
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: there's a huge edge in the hitting one way or
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: the other here. School Ball is pitching for Detroit, though,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: so you know it's schoolble day. We know he's an
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: elite level pitcher two point seven two ERA point nine
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: to nine whip struggled a little bit in his last
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: down and give up four and runs against Milwaukee, but
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: I mean that's basically the worst that you're gonna get
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: out of school ball. He's allowed four and runs twice,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: and he's allowed one or fewer and all the rest
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: of his outings this year thirty eight to six strike
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio, thirty hits, a lout, and thirty six
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: and a third innings. Yeah, good stuff. We know maybe
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: he should be even a little bit better than what
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: we've seen so far, but his numbers against Atlanta, believe
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: it or not, are not that good. In forty nine
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: at bats, twelve to four, strike up walk ratio two
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: to eighty six average allowed eight forty two ops. So
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: this might be a start where Schooble is beatable. These
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: hitters have actually hit him decently. J R. Ritchie is
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: pitching for Atlanta here, really young guy, twenty two and
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: he's only made one major league start and after that
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: he has a two point five to seven ERA and
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: one whip. He pitched well at Washington. Washington, they have
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: had a decent offense this year, even though I'm not
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: totally sold on it. But he went seven innings. He
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: was pretty efficient. He only threw eighty nine pitches over
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: that span, gave up five hits, two earned runs, both
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: on solo home runs, seven strike outs, two walks. I
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: said going into that game, Rich like his profile looked
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good to me. Like he throws pretty hard, and
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: he has like a six or seven pitch mix which
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: is pretty solid. And if I remember correct that, I
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: think he has a really good sinker. If I remember correctly,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: maybe I'm wrong about that. I feel like that's the
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: case with all of these guys though, But of course
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: I think he has a little bit of an extra
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: edge here because Detroit has never faced him before. So
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, Yeah, I think the unknown Ritchie
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: I think he can outpitch Scooball in this game. Man,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I necessarily want a bank on it,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: but I would go with Atlanta in this game. They
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: have sixty one percent of tickets eighty eight percent of
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. Detroit is of course a favorite
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: because school balls on the mound there a minus won
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: forty something but minus one thirties maybe, but he doesn't
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: have good matchup stats here, you know. I mean, if
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: he wanted to go under, I probably wouldn't really disagree
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: with that. The totals at eight it's gone up a
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: bit though, maybe first five inning under. But then again,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: I think I prefer the Atlanta side because you're getting
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: as an underdog, and I think it's pretty sneaky. I
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: kind of like this one. So you know, out of
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: the the ones that I have that I don't have
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: on my card, I like over in the Red Sox
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: Toronto game, Atlanta money line, and what was the other one,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: oh Colorado. I guess I'm like, either play money line
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: or make your own plus one and a half run
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: line on that one. I think those are the three
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: that I think are the best, besides the ones that
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: I added, uh to the actual cards. So of course
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: you know that means the ones on my card are
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: gonna lose and then all the leans are gonna hit.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I lean Atlanta on that one. I'm maybe
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: I just I just don't have the balls to fade
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: schoolbo man. No, that's not true. I do, dude, I
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: have the balls to play on like the ugliest shit imaginable.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: I just, uh, I don't know. I don't know if
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: I'm quite there with that one. But but I lean
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: Atlanta in that game. And you get the benefit of
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen if you play them full games. So
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: I'm saying Atlanta full game is what I'm saying in
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: that one. Arizona at Milwaukee. Milwaukee won thirteen to two yesterday,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: so Arizona having a day off returning from Mexico City
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: did not work out well for Arizona yesterday. And like
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: I said, I think Arizona's bullpen is nowhere near as
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: good as what their whip was indicating early in the season.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: I don't like their bullpen. They're starting to fall off.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: They used three relief pitchers yesterday, which is not that bad,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: but they're not a good bullpen in my opinion. Milwaukee
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: has not been that good in the bullpen department either,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: though they used two relief pitchers yesterday. I don't like
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: arizonas though. Man, they've already dropped a tenth and their
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: ERA is above five, so like, how could they have
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: been sitting like second third all seasons so far? There's
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: no way. Brewers have not had a good bullpen though
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: they're at twenty second, but their ERA is under four,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: so their ERA is way better than the d Backs bullpen,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: So you could definitely make the argument that Brewers do
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen out of the two, even though
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: their whip is not as good looking at the hitting
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: Diamondbacks have hit pretty well recently. They're at eighth in offense,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: not yesterday, but they're doing pretty well offensively for the
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: most part. Milwaukee has struggled at twenty fourth, but then again,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: they've dealt with injuries and their offense definitely hit last night.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: They might be able to hit here because they are
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: going up against Eduardo Rodriguez e rod. Even though his
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: two point eight to ninety RA looks pretty good, one
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: point three to two whip is too high, indicates there's
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: something a little bit off here. He's had multiple walks
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: in all but one out and he hasn't been horrible,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't been great. Strike out walk ratio is
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: really concerning. Eighteen to twelve and twenty eight innings. Twenty
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: five hits a lot is fine, but the number of
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: strikeouts is way down. That means there's probably an issue
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: with his velocity. He's not striking guys out. Too many walks,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: you know, not a great sign. Milwaukee does not do
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: too well against him, though. It's sixty six at bats
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: sixteen to eight strike out walk ratio. That is a
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: lot of walks, but six of them Margaris Sanchez, so
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: you can kind of throw that out a little bit.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: Two fifty eight average allowed seven to twelve ops. So
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: overall his numbers are not that bad against Milwaukee, but
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's really that trustworthy. Brandon Sproute
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: is pitching for it the Brewers. He is the much
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: younger guy. He's struggled this season though. Six point four
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: to five yr, one point five to seven whip that's
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: not good. He has a pretty bad twenty to thirteen
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, twenty two and a third innings pitched.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: It's just way too many walks. Dude. You can't do it.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: You just can't do it. He's allowed a little bit
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: below one hit per inning, which isn't too bad though,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: And besides his one his first start against the White
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: Sox was a disaster, But since then, he's actually pitched better,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: so he is trending in the right direction. His walk
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: number's gone down in his last two outings. He's only
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: had three walks over that span with ten strikeouts. He's
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: allowed three or three or earned runs in his last
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: three outings, so he is pitching a little bit better,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: so I'll give him that. And he's unfamiliar to the
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: I'm in backs. They've never seen it before, so that
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit of an extra advantage to
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: sprout for that reason. Uh So, I probably do prefer
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee in this game. They flipped to a minus one
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: twenty three favorite. I'm gonna lean that way slightly. They're
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: getting fifty four percent of tickets and seventy five percent
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, so I like how. One
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: of the actual plays that I have is one of
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: the ones where the money is not agreeing with me,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: but whatever. That's on full game though, but this one, yeah, Milwaukee,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: I would agree with Milwaukee full game. The money seems
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: to agree with it. I don't disagree with the over
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: in this game either. I could see both starting pitchers
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: maybe not doing that well here. The bullpens are kind
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: of fatable here, but I think I probably prefer the
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee side, even though they wanted to blow out yesterday
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: and normally I don't like that, but I think that
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: might be the way to go. I'm trying to think
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: here because there was one picture. Who was it? There's
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: one picture pitcher today who's allowed like ten or eleven
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: home runs on the season so far. Who is it?
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: Is it in this it's in this last game? I'm
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: not sure. Kansas City is at the A's and we
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: know this A's stadium has gone over almost every time,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: except they did not go over last night four to
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: one win for the Royals. Interesting, so after that game,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: the A's home games this season are nine and two
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: to the over, so most of their games go over
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: the total. And we know they play in a Triple
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: A ballpark. Man, it's a small ballpark. A lot of
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: home runs to get hit in this ballpark. It's not
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: a good ballpark for pitching. Both these bullpens have been bad.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: Kansas City used almost their entire bullpend last night. That's
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: not a good sign. They used five relief pitchers the
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: As used four. Yeah, is that no? Five? I can't
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: dude again, Stroke Bran, I can't see how many lines
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: there are there. Yeah, So both bullpens are pretty burned
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: out here, and they're not good bullpens either. The Royals
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: have the second worst bullpen whip and one of the
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: worst eras. The A's are at two twenty first and
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: whip their ERA is acceptable, but I think you could
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: definitely fade these bullpens here. Hitting wise, you know, the
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: Royals have not exactly been great, but they've moved up
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: of it. They're actually all the way up to thirteenth
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: in offense, believe it or not, so their offense has
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: actually been doing better. I don't know if it's because
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: they moved the wall into their ballpark or what. And
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: the A's are eighteenth. The A's do have some offensive
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: talent as well, so there are some things that definitely
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: point towards an over in this one. The only thing
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: that kind of keeps me back as far as the
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: over is that Michael walk is pitching for the Royals
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: and he is pretty good. Two point five one ERA
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: point nine to three whip twenty eight strikeouts, ten walks.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: He's not really a strike up pitcher. I don't know.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: I mean those numbers are fine. Twenty hits a lot
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: in thirty two and a third innings is good, though
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: he does not allow a lot of hits. He got
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: beat up in his last starting against Baltimore, but it
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: kind of looks like more of a fluke. I don't
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: think it's an indicator of like a trend. But he
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: might not pitch well in the A's stadium though it's
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: a very very difficult part to pitch in, so that
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: might not be great. Walk He's an extreme fly ball
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: pitcher too, so that's not a good sign for this.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: So that is an indicator that maybe an over doesn't
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: make sense in this game. But he's limited his opponents
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: to three home runs so far this year, so that
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: is not a lot of home runs. So he's been
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: pretty hard to hit still, even though he allows a
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: lot of fly balls, it's like soft contact fly balls.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: But I think he could bounce back after a bad
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: start against Baltimore. He had pitched against the Yankees the
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: game before that, so maybe it was a little bit
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: of a letdown. Numbers against the A's are mediocre though.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: In forty eight at bats nine to five strikeout walk
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: ratio two seventy one batting average allowed, seven to fifteen ops.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: Those are not horrible numbers. They're not great, but not bad.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: Luis Severino's pitching for the A's not good. Five point
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: one seventy RA, one point five to six whip These
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: are bad numbers, and again he does not pitch well
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: at home. Last year's same thing. Last year he was
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: way worse in this stadium than he was on the road.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: Same thing this year is Homie are seven point one
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: point five really bad stuff. He's got thirty two strikeouts
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: and twenty one walks this year and thirty one and
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: a third innings only twenty eight hits lot. But that
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: number of walks is really bad, and he leans more
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: towards allowing fly balls too. He's only allowed four home
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: runs so far, but all of them came in his
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: two home starts, so the home runs have all been
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: coming in this ballpark. Both of his home starts were
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: bad against Texas and the White Sox, and those are
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: not good offenses. Numbers against the Royals are not that
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: bad though, In seventy four at bats nine to four
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: strikeout walker ratio two forty three average allowed seven oh
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: one ops. So I hesitate a little bit because the
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers are not really that bad for these pictures,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: and Waka is actually a pretty good picture. But everything
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: else kind of points towards an over here. Man. You
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: know several you know, really bad at home. Yeah walka.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: Both pitchers are fly ball pitchers. Yeah, I think I
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: would go over in this game. It would be a
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: full gameplay obviously. Let me see here, what do we
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: have here? We have, according to wager talk, fifty eight
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets in eighty four percent of the cash
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: on the over. So the money is indicating on the over.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: The total is at ten. It's gone up from nine
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. I would find the over ten there,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: you know, Yeah, I mean ten ten and a half
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: is not that much of a difference that you can't
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: get the nine and a half anymore. Over ten seems
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: to make sense to me. A couple of the books
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: have it straight up just you know, right at ten
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: at minus one ten. So that is the way I
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: would lean in that game. I would go over the
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: aas look like they're getting some of the money which
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: kind of surprises me. Up from fifty five percent to
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent or sorry, fifty five percent of tickets
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash excuse me, and they've
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: actually flipped to the favorite. Uh, from the underdog to
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: the favorite at minus one twenty, minus one sixteen whatever.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think I with that. I would lean to
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: Kansas City in the game, at least maybe in the
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: first five innings, because I think Waka is better than
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: seven Ren. Oh. I don't think that's going out on
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: a limb, but I'd prefer the over in that game. Now,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: it's gonna bug me. Which one of these pitchers allowed
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: ten home runs this year? Man? Was it Bubba? Hold on?
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: I mean we already looked at everybody's stats. It's just
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: gonna bug me. No, it wasn't. Who the hell was it?
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: Then it wasn't David Peterson. I don't know, man, I'm
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: gonna have to go look it up. I can look
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: it up right now. Actually, hang on, I'm gonna look
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: up home runs allowed pitching stat leaders. Yeah. Oh yeah,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: that's what I want. Zach Letel is allowed. Oh it's
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: our it's our guy that we're playing an underrun it's
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: Nathany Evalde. He's allowed nine. That's what I was thinking of.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: I guess whatever, man, I'm still gonna do it. I
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: think the evolved. He's good enough and pitching in a
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: good environment. Still like the under there. All right, let's
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: go to NHL. I don't have a play in the
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: NHL today. We have three games in the NHL here.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: Colorado has already advanced, I believe so their their series
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: is over Montreal and Tampa Bay is the first game up.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is the minus one sixty nine favorite, seventy
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets on them only and seventy percent
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Montreal though, so the money is
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: hitting Montreal. Now. This has been a close series. I
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: like Tampa Bay to still win the series. Obviously. I'm
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: mean to have them as my champion this game. Though,
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: if you look at the stats in the last game,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: every game has been close, multiple of the games. Every game,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: I think every one of the first three games went
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: into overtime. Every game in the series has been decided
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: by one goal. So that could indicate you should just
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: blindly take the underdog, you know what I mean? Because
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: every game has been so close. The last game, Montreal
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: did blow to nothing lead and if you look at
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: the stats in the game, Montreal did only have eighteen shots,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: so that's not a great sign from my Montreal. They
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: got outshot, but they were the way more physical team.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: They won sixty five percent of the face offs and
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: had fifty hits, so that is a sign that Montreal
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: is showing up with a lot of intensity. So I
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: don't love that for Tampa Bay. Here it is in
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Now, Tampa Bay is pretty good at home.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: Montreal was a pretty good road team, though. I you know,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: I just can't really disagree with what the market is
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: saying there. I think if you do it, you gotta
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: make your own plus one puck line there. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: I think Montreal has a better chance to win the
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: game than what the oddsmakers are thrown out there. But
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: I have to hope that Tampa Bay is gonna win
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: just so my bracket stays intact, and whoever wins this
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: game is fairly likely to win the series. But we'll see.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: Man money seems to be coming in a little bit
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: towards the under in that game as well. I mean,
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: it's been a very intense series. None of the games
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: have been particularly high scoring, so I could see the
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: argument for that, But the money seems to be strongly
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: indicating on the Montreal side. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, we don't
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: see the market read on this. Wager talk does have
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: it somewhere here. Let me see that's NBA. Where's the hockey?
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: I know it's on here. Here it is. They got
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of tickets and ninety two percent of
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: the cash on Philly. By the way, their numbers agree
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: that the money is coming in on Montreal, but Philadelphia
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: looks like they're taking the money. I agree with Philadelphia.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think they finally end the series here.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: They were up three nothing in the series. They've lost
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: two games in a row. They were fairly close games.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: If you look at what happened in the last game,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: it was a fairly even game. The stats were pretty
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: close all round. Could have gone either way. It was
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh. You know, we're back in Philadelphia here for
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: this one. You know it's game six. Pittsburgh is the
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: home team in the series, which I think people forget.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia is gonna do it on their home ice.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: There's still the better team with the better deepfense, the
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: better goaltending. They've given Pittsburgh some momentum. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a real intense effort out
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: of Philly. Here. They're minus one twenty two. Maybe that's
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit high based on what they were in
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: the first couple of games. What was the line in
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: like game game hold on in game four, I mean
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: to say, no, they were around the same minus won
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: twenty five. But yeah, I mean I would lean to
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: Philly again. Better defense, more physicality, better goaltender. They better
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: not blow a three nothing leading, man. I mean, it's
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: only happened four times in NHL history, I'm pretty sure
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: is what it is, although it's more likely in the
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: NHL than any other sport. But they got to just
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: get it done here, man. They do not want to
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: have to go to a game seven back in Pittsburgh.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: So I do like Philadelphia to get it done there,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: not just because I picked them to win in my bracket.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: Utah at Vegas, Vegas has retied the series. We got
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: the win with that. Maybe they should have won more
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: easily in that game. They were winning the game three
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: to nothing, so it was a little bit of a
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: misleading result that went into overtime. Vegas was kind of
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: the better team in the game, although Utah was the
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: more physical team. Vegas did win the face offs and
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: they had more shots in the game. They did have
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: a short handed goal in the game though. But we're
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: back in Vegas now. Vegas is better at home than
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: they are on the road, so that's gonna help. Their
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: road record is pretty bad. Utah is not that good
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: on the road. So you know, it's a tied series. Now.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean towards Vegas. I know I picked them
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: to win, but I'm trying to not be biased. Man Like,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: the money is saying Vegas and it's saying Montreal here,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: so that is what I'm leaning as well. Vegas eighty
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on Vegas.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: But there are reasons for it. I think Vegas is
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: kind of the better team here, more experienced. You know,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: they have some more confidence back, more momentum here. Now
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: with that win in the last game, that Montreal Tampa
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: Bay game, it's just the underdog makes a little bit
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: more sense there because it's been a really close series
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: these two games. By the way, Pittsburgh Philly. The totals
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: just sitting at five and a half. I think if
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: you like Philly, you probably like the under a little
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: bit more because that's their style of play. Pittsburgh kind
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: of needs to score more to get wins. Utah Vegas.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a feel for the total. It's
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: flipped a little bit around to the under in that game. Yeah,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good read on the total. I'm
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: gonna slightly lean towards Vegas, but you'd have to make
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: like a minus one puck line maybe in that one.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Man, Oh, let's go to NBA. I
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: do have an NBA play. There are three NBA games,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: Magic Pistons I think is the first game up. Again,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: we don't see the percentages on this pregame. Needs to
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: fix their fucking shit because it's making me really mad.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: It looks like Orlando is a public underdog here. It's
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of tickets, only seventy one percent of
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: the cash. You know what I say about these dreaded
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: public underdogs. Man, you don't want to play them. You
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: want to look to play the favorite, And I agree.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lead to Detroit in this one. But and
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: I've had a good read on the series generally, I
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: leaned to Orlando and game had that correct. I gave
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: out a play on Detroit in game two that was correct,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: gave out to play on the over in game three
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: that was correct. But I gave out a play on
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: Detroit to bounce back in game four and it did
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: not happen. Now Detroit is facing elimination at home. I
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: like Detroit in this game, man. The problem is that
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: you're laying ten now with them at home, and they
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: were like eight and a half nine in the first
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: couple of games. Now part of the reason is because
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: Wagner is now hurt for the Magic, so that is
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why the line is higher than
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: it was. And yeah, that is a blow to the Magic.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: He's their second best player, so that does hurt the
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: Magic with Wagner out, But they somehow won that game anyway, Dude,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: I'm sick of it. I've had a couple of losing
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: plays in the NBA where we had that one on
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: Denver where Anthony Edwards and Devincenzo both got hurt from
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Denver blew the game. This game Wagner went
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: down for the Magic and the Pistons still couldn't win.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: Absolutely ridiculous. But my concern is that the Magic are
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: in that injured player theory spot that you know. I
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: always talk about that when one of their star players
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: goes down a lot of times, the team will step
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: up their level of effort and they'll play harder because
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: they know they need to, and they'll be getting a
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: little bit of value on the number. So that's my concern.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: I still like the Pistons here. I would lean towards
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: laying the points here, but that's my one issue with it.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: This game's on Amazon Prime. By the way, I think
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: all the NHL games are on the true TV TBS,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: HBO Max, that type of shit TNT. If we look
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: at this game, I mean Detroit just they've been miserable
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: offensively in the series. Man, I don't know if it's
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: gonna completely turn around. Both teams were horrible offensively in
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: that game, so I think an over is possibly worth
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: a look here. The total has gone up a little
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: bit to to eleven and a half. That's a pretty
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: low total. That's really low. Actually. The one that we
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: won on the over the other day was two thirteen
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's too eleven and a half,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: and the series totals were opening at like two nineteen
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. And yeah, it's gonna be a little
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: bit lower just because Wagner is out. But yeah, and
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: over makes sense in this game. I mean, the money's
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: kind of hitting the under though, fifty six percent, to
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: take a sixty four percent of the cash on the under,
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: I lean Orlando, Orsese Ileen Detroit. I keep saying Orlando,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: I lean Detroit and over in this game, but I
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: think the over there might be a little bit more
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: leeway there because the total is so low and both
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: teams shot horribly. They both shot under forty percent from
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: the field in the game. Orlando did have ten more
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: field goal attempts, by the way, though they went to
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: the line more too, but Orlando had more possessions in
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: the game. Both teams were horrible from three point range
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: below thirty percent, So I think, again, the regression here,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: the most likely regression is gonna be positive regression for
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: both offenses. So over, I think it's probably the strongest
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: lean in this particular game. In my opinion. Orlando did
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: win the rebound battle and Detroit did have on a turnovers.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: They had twenty turnovers. Cad Cunningham I think had like
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: nine of them. They got to turn this around. Man,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: Detroit's kind of turning into a one man team there,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: and that's why I did not have them going far
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: in my bracket. But I did think they'd at least
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: win this series. We'll see, man, But yeah, I think
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: an over might be the way to go in that game,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: more so on the side, just because of where the
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: numbers at and where the regression is gonna come. You know,
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: I'm tempted to do it, but I'm gonna leave it
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: off my card and my actual play is gonna be
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: in this ESPN game. At seven point thirty, I think
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: you know where this is going. This is the only
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: game that's a straight up handicap where we don't have
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: injuries to really worry about. Here, we're gonna lay the
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: points with Cleveland. We're going right back to it. I
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: know we lost on Cleveland in the prior game, but
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: they're the way better team over Toronto. Dude, I'm sorry,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: but yeah, Cleveland is gonna turn this round. And yes,
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: I know Toronto is a pretty good defense. I realized
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: that because you could argue for an over in this
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: game as well if you look at what happened in
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: this last game. Both teams were horrible offensively. In this game,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: Toronto did have ten more field goal attempts in the game.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: Now it is Worris and the Cleveland had six more
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: three pointers made and still lost the game. But both
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: teams shot terribly overall. They were both below forty percent,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: just like the other game I talked about both below
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: thirty percent from three. Toronto was below twenty percent, but
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: they're not really a good three point shooting team. Cleveland
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: had a ton of turnovers and they did lose the
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: rebound battle Cleveland. But in this case it's a little
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: bit different because Cleveland was winning the game almost seventy
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: percent of the game and they definitely should have won.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: I thought we were gonna get the cover there. They
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: were winning by eight with four minutes to go, so
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: they really blew this game in the final minutes. They
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: should have won the game. So I think this is
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: the play where we actually want to go with Cleveland
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: to win back at home as the significantly better team here.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, I'm surprised that they're in an even
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: series right now, Man, I am both teams should shoot better,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: So if you want to go over, I don't disagree
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: with the over in this one. The money looks like
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: it's heavily indicating on the under though. The concern with
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: the over here is that Toronto does like to try
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: to play defense and slow it down. And you know me,
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of times I do like the better defense
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: getting points, and that is what Toronto is here. But
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: in this case, I think it's just, yeah, it's just
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: too much of a like a game where I think
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's just gonna run them out of the building here, Man,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: Cleveland just has too much. They're too potent offensively to
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: be this bad, you know what I mean? And they
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: were that was their NADI or basically in their last game.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have a huge positive regression in this game
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: offensively in my opinion. Uh, the under is getting the
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: money fifty five percent tickets, eight percent of the cash.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it is. Agree with me on
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: Cleveland the fifty six percent of tickets, sixty one percent
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. The opener was eleven and
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: a half, which I don't know why the numbers dropped
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: all the way to eight and a half, but or nine?
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: Really is it is? We have eighty two percent of
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on Cleveland according
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: to pregames screen here, and they're in agreement with wager
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: Talk's numbers, sixty seven percent of tickets, ninety six percent
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under total is fairly low
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: to me at two eighteen. You know, I think there
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: is positive regression that can happen with both offenses, So
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the over. I like the over,
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: but my preference is to lay the points with Cleveland here. Man,
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: I think this is the spot to do it. The
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: home team in this series, by the way, has won
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: and covered every single game, so that trend may very
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: well continue here. Looking at the numbers here, Cleveland, the
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: last time they were at home, they were laying about
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: the same amount, I believe. Let me see where's the
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: number on this, Yeah, they were laying nine and a half.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: So I think we're getting a little bit of a
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: bargain even on Cleveland here. Now, is there an injury
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: that we don't know about? I don't think there is
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: no quickly is the injury for Toronto and that's it.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: There's no injuries listed on the Cleveland side, so uh
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: quickly is out man. So that's a little bit of
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: a blow to the Raptors. I mean, he's one of
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: their better players, so that's not gonna help Toronto. So
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: I think we're getting a nice bargain on this with Cleveland.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: This to me looks like a big time zigzag spot.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: It's the zig zig zag zag zig spot if you
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: want it, if you want to put it that way.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: Even though Toronto usually is better on the road, and
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: one issue I do have with the over by the way,
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: is that Toronto is a very underconducive team as a
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: road underdog. They tend to slow down games really well
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: in that type of spot. But other than that, yeah,
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: I like Cleveland. They're not gonna be this bad in
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: this game. They're gonna get They're gonna right the ship
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: offensively here Cleveland minus the points is the play there,
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: and then the final game also on ESPN is another game.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: But there are a lot of injury issues going on.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: So Orlando has Wagner out now Houston in LA this
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: is I don't know what to think about this game.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: And the number is Lakers four and a half. It's
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: gonna up from two and a half to four to
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: four and a half. I think, just from a pure
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: numbers perspective, I think you have to lean to Houston
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: plus the points here because you know that Houston they
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: were laying like even two, and they were laying two
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: and a half without Kevin Durant on the road. Okay,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: and yes, Durant is out. That's part of the reason
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: why the number is this high. Durant has only played
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: one game in this series, and yes, he's the Rockets'
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: best scorer, so I don't know what the fuck, dude,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: that's what's happened in this series. Man. The Lakers are
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: starting to get their guys back while the Rockets are
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: losing their guys. But Durant, dude, he didn't play in
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: the last game and the Rockets won in a blowout,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: so you know there is that at least the Rockets
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: were able to win without Durant. But yes, Durant is
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: out for the remainder of the series. The Lakers. The
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: reason why the numbers all the way up to four
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: now is because Austin Reeves is probable, so he's back
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: in this game. Luca is not back but Austin Reeves
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: is back. But you know what I say about this,
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: that's the reverse injured player theory spot where a star
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: player comes back. The line tends to overadjust to accommodate
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: for that, and the Lakers might be thinking, hey, we're
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: back at home. We got this series in the bag.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: We had one bad game, we're already up three to one,
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: we got one of our better players back. We could
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: do this. So I think the line might be a
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: little bit too heavy in favor of the Lakers here.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: Man getting the Rockets is an underdog for the first
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: time in the series. I think the line's gone a
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: little bit too far, So I would lean to the
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: Rockets plus the points. But you could make the zigzag
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: argument here because the Rockets just won in an absolute blowout.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: So in that respect, yeah, the Lakers could bounce back
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: from that. But the Lakers, you know, the one real
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: outlier here was the three pointers, And yes, that might
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: regress because Houston is not that good of a three
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: point shooting team and they hit forty in the game
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: and the Lakers only hit twenty three percent, So there
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: is some regression that might happen there. As far as
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: regression back to a mean. Lakers had a ton of
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: turnovers in the game too. They were minus eleven in
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: turn That's probably not gonna happen again, so there is that,
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: So some regression might be on the way for the
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: Lakers here. This total is also quite low at two
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: oh eight and a half. Money has come in towards
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: the over. It looks like a little bit, but well,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: it looks like it's coming in on the under after
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: the initial move was to go up from two oh
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: six and a half to two oh eight and a half.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: It looks like we have eighty percent of the cash
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: with only fifty seven percent of tickets on the under,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: and the money looks like it's indicating on the Lakers
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of tickets and sixty nine percent of
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Lakers. Yeah, I still think I
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: lean to Houston plus the point. So I think that
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: would be my strongest lean in that game. You know,
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: the argument for the over, you know, it would really
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: just be I think that the line has just adjusted
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: too low based on Durant being out and whatever. But
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: Reeves coming back should have put That's probably what pushed
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: the line up, actually was Reeves coming back. But you know,
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: you're talking about a Lakers team that usually is really
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: good on offense and their defense usual lapses a bit,
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: so you know a lot of times those games will
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: be over conducive. But that's gonna do it. Man. Those
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: are all my opinions and stuff. For today. We have
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: two plays Yankees and Rangers under the total of eight
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: and a half. Houston Astros all Texas today. Man, in
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: baseball first five inning money line there don't include the bullpens,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: just first five innings, and then we have the Calves
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: minus the points. You got to get back on track, man,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: these favorites in the good bounce back spots. That's what
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: I like to do in the NBA playoffs. You get
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: the better team at a little bit of a discounted
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: price in a good bounce back spot. That's what it's
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: all about. So Cleveland better get it done for us there.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: Even though if the Celtics advance through the playoffs, I
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: do not want to see Cleveland. I'd much rather see
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: one of these weaker teams get through. So but that's
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it
• 1:41:52
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• 1:41:55
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• 1:41:59
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• 1:42:01
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• 1:42:06
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• 1:42:08
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• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: some support that way. Loser Cast, we had a fun
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: show last night with Squeeze squee Squeam, Squeal Squeeze, whatever
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: his name was, and he had his dog with him.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: I guess his dog is famous. Shout out to Sumo
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: the Dog. You can go check that out. That show
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: was fun last night. Loser Cast. That's every Tuesday night.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: And then I am in the g Spot podcast with
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: Ben the Emo and Cap and Adam Knather was on
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: the only episode we've done so far. I got to
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: talk to Ben see if we should recap the draft.
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: We might do that, so be on the lookout for that,
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: and be on the lookout for my Kentucky Derby show,
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: which I've been doing the research. I'll have that out.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it live probably on Friday at some point.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: I guess I'll do that, So be on the lookout
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: for that. You subscribe and you should get the notifications
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: for it. And then I will have an NFL Season
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: Win Totals episode coming out at some point too. That'll
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: I'll probably do it at some on some night where
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: I feel like it, So subscribe and you'll get the
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: notifications for that. That's gonna do it. Peace,