Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Cashing Out in the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

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Cashing Out in the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I and Chad Millman, and I'm gonna be joined by
0:17
Speaker 1: my BFF, my companion professional better, Simon Hunter. And I
0:22
Speaker 1: will say, right now, folks, I feel it. I feel
0:26
Speaker 1: it in the love you sent me on Twitter, in
0:29
Speaker 1: the love you sent Simon on Twitter. And for the
0:32
Speaker 1: most part, for the most part, I say that entirely
0:36
Speaker 1: we're with genuine affection because I do feel proud of
0:40
Speaker 1: the of the community we've built in the Favorites, and
0:43
Speaker 1: it does feel like, more often than not, we are
0:45
Speaker 1: all in this together, and people ride with us when
0:51
Speaker 1: we're doing well, and they appreciate that we talk about
0:55
Speaker 1: it when we're not doing well. And right now, folks,
0:58
Speaker 1: we are suffering. We are suffering because everything we thought
1:03
Speaker 1: we knew, everything that we thought we were doing right
1:06
Speaker 1: at the end of the year that got us to
1:09
Speaker 1: a five and oh week seventeen that won of some money. Uh,
1:13
Speaker 1: everything we thought we knew we did not know. This
1:15
Speaker 1: past weekend Home Favorites we loved not so much. Thank
1:19
Speaker 1: you Buffalo, Thank you Pittsburgh, Thank you, Seattle. Home Dogs
1:24
Speaker 1: we loved no Thank you Tennessee. Backup quarterbacks covering. Thank
1:29
Speaker 1: God for Tyne Nicky, but screw you started, turned back up,
1:34
Speaker 1: turned starter Jared Golf Simon Hunter Professional Better has joined
1:37
Speaker 1: me on the podcast. All season long, we made five
1:40
Speaker 1: picks every week the Draft Kings Pro Football Pick I'm
1:44
Speaker 1: National Championship to win one million dollars. We came two
1:48
Speaker 1: out of eight hundred people we potted. We didn't stop,
1:53
Speaker 1: we didn't cash out. We decided to keep making five
1:56
Speaker 1: picks every week and share them with you. We did
1:58
Speaker 1: it in a week seventeen and we were up another
2:00
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred dollars. We did it again last weekend. Not
2:04
Speaker 1: such a great week, and we will break down where
2:07
Speaker 1: we stand in a second. One more reminder, we are
2:10
Speaker 1: bringing back the cash Fuel phrase to pays contest, giving
2:14
Speaker 1: a lucky listener a hundred dollars for every game we
2:16
Speaker 1: win each week, not a lucky week. This week we
2:19
Speaker 1: are giving an equal amount of the charity the winner's
2:21
Speaker 1: choice to be eligible. Remember these are new rules from
2:24
Speaker 1: the regular season, So listen up, go follow at the
2:28
Speaker 1: Favorites Pod and send us your submission for the player
2:32
Speaker 1: this week, for the player who broke your heart this
2:36
Speaker 1: past wild card weekend, tag at the favorites pot in
2:40
Speaker 1: your response Matt Mitchell, Producer Extraordinaire. We'll sift through the
2:45
Speaker 1: submissions and randomly choose it. You will win the money.
2:48
Speaker 1: Hopefully you'll win more than this week's win or one
2:52
Speaker 1: every pick. We make all the data, all the analysis
2:55
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Follow me follow at Simon
2:59
Speaker 1: Hunter in the app. That's we're gonna put our picks. Oh, Simon,
3:03
Speaker 1: this was a rough weekend, Chad. No one sells doom
3:07
Speaker 1: and gloom like Chad moment. Oh my god, what an
3:10
Speaker 1: opening that was. Yeah, I got I got smacked around. Yeah,
3:16
Speaker 1: I got smacked around by the books. Um. Now, it
3:19
Speaker 1: was embarrassing, especially in the sense that, like I told you,
3:23
Speaker 1: other pros listen to this, My bob, my boss listening
3:25
Speaker 1: to this. And they all texted me right after we
3:28
Speaker 1: got done and told me how bad of it picked
3:30
Speaker 1: that Rams that Ramshawks game was. They're like, why why
3:34
Speaker 1: do you like the Seahawks futures, Like that's such a
3:36
Speaker 1: bad futures, Like they haven't played well in months, and
3:40
Speaker 1: I just I misread that so bad. But yes, it's uh,
3:45
Speaker 1: it's tough when I know how many fans bet with us,
3:48
Speaker 1: and they in trust us with their picks and I
3:53
Speaker 1: got killed. Man. So the only game against the spread
3:56
Speaker 1: I got right was Washington, And it depends on what
4:00
Speaker 1: where you got because if you got seven and a half,
4:02
Speaker 1: I didn't get that right. Technically that's oh and six.
4:04
Speaker 1: But oh god, it was hard. But it's one of
4:08
Speaker 1: those where I have a playoff model and I didn't
4:12
Speaker 1: tweak it enough. I took I put too much faith
4:14
Speaker 1: in home field advantage in a COVID season. Why I
4:17
Speaker 1: shouldn't have. And I knew that first that first Saturday.
4:21
Speaker 1: I knew I had made a mistake. After those games,
4:23
Speaker 1: I was like, man, my model might be a way
4:26
Speaker 1: off here because I thought it was getting good value
4:27
Speaker 1: on different games and it just was not coming up
4:29
Speaker 1: that way. So I've been working. I've been working two
4:33
Speaker 1: days here hard trying to update it. And we'll see
4:37
Speaker 1: this week. I mean, it's it's like kind of scary
4:39
Speaker 1: at this point because I was just so off last week.
4:41
Speaker 1: But I I do. I like these I like these lines.
4:44
Speaker 1: This week we'll get into it. But yeah, that that
4:47
Speaker 1: hurt our bank account, buddy, that that hurt us for sure?
4:50
Speaker 1: All Right. I want to get I want to get
4:51
Speaker 1: into sort of the losses that directly impact me. Yea,
4:59
Speaker 1: I do you want to do that? Um? Literally, as
5:02
Speaker 1: my architect wife is downstairs drawn up the plans for
5:07
Speaker 1: the renovation she wants to do uh to our house,
5:10
Speaker 1: and I'm like, all right, well there goes the landscape
5:12
Speaker 1: and budget. Um. But you and I did an instant
5:16
Speaker 1: reaction on Sunday night a video that we posted on
5:19
Speaker 1: Action Network HQ on Twitter where we've talked about the
5:23
Speaker 1: lines that we liked the most for the NFC. We
5:25
Speaker 1: had to record at eight thirty because you like to
5:28
Speaker 1: go to bed, so we couldn't wait until all the
5:30
Speaker 1: games were over. But Rams were plus seven against the Packers,
5:34
Speaker 1: Box opened a plus four against the Saints. You immediately
5:38
Speaker 1: said you liked Box plus four because home field was
5:41
Speaker 1: not worth what you thought it was. But you had
5:43
Speaker 1: known home field wasn't worth what you thought it was
5:46
Speaker 1: all fucking season, So like, why were you giving it
5:49
Speaker 1: any more credence during the playoffs. This message brought to
5:54
Speaker 1: you by Cucumber Water, the official beverage of gambling Insiders. Well, Chad, actually, yeah,
6:03
Speaker 1: I know, look at you know his home field did
6:05
Speaker 1: matter this year. I mean I guess it didn't matter
6:07
Speaker 1: so much for the spread. But you look at these
6:09
Speaker 1: best teams. I think the Seahawk to seven and one.
6:12
Speaker 1: They're only lost was to that Giants at home. A
6:14
Speaker 1: lot of the teams did really well at home surprisingly
6:16
Speaker 1: this year. You're completely right. It's just I have two
6:19
Speaker 1: different models, Like it sounds weird by break the season
6:22
Speaker 1: into five or six different sections. Where I had the
6:26
Speaker 1: preseason of my futures, which in my book, I keep
6:28
Speaker 1: all those numbers together. They I'll do the first four
6:31
Speaker 1: weeks to the season. I put those numbers together, then
6:33
Speaker 1: I'll do the full season. Then I'll break it down here,
6:36
Speaker 1: we'll do the playoffs, and then I'll do the super Bowl.
6:38
Speaker 1: So like each one of those things, there are five
6:39
Speaker 1: different things for me during the season. So I already
6:43
Speaker 1: knew the playoffs for my best thing. So I'm about
6:45
Speaker 1: to actually shot Chat here because Chat doesn't even know this.
6:47
Speaker 1: I actually pulled off our four thousand, two hundred. Yeah,
6:51
Speaker 1: I cast it out before the play has even started
6:54
Speaker 1: because we had made money and I was able to
6:56
Speaker 1: put in a future bet for us on Buffalo. So
6:59
Speaker 1: I was just like, I'm taking this. So me, Chad
7:02
Speaker 1: both got a thousand, nine man Mitchell gets his four hundred,
7:04
Speaker 1: and this is all just fun, free money we're playing with.
7:07
Speaker 1: Are you going to place a bat all one? Because
7:10
Speaker 1: I know the playoffs aren't my It's not my best thing.
7:13
Speaker 1: My best thing is the season. I'm good at the season.
7:15
Speaker 1: So I know, I'm sure you're shocked right now. I
7:19
Speaker 1: am shocked shocked. So wait, so I'm getting money. Yeah,
7:25
Speaker 1: I'm your money manager. So like that's the pro of me.
7:27
Speaker 1: It's like I know what I'm good at, what I'm
7:28
Speaker 1: not good at, and I was just nerrative, nervous about
7:32
Speaker 1: my system going on this playoff where my model always
7:35
Speaker 1: kews towards home teams and big dogs. So it didn't
7:41
Speaker 1: work out for us, like that that Bears one. I
7:43
Speaker 1: don't know, depends what number again you got it at.
7:45
Speaker 1: But like I took a loss on that beer because
7:47
Speaker 1: I played them at plus ten and ten and a
7:48
Speaker 1: half plus eleven and eleven a half, so I got
7:50
Speaker 1: a little bit back. But I was off in that
7:52
Speaker 1: Bears game. I I'm like looking at this week and
7:56
Speaker 1: it's like back to the same thing where I'm looking
7:59
Speaker 1: at my system and it's giving me the lines and
8:01
Speaker 1: I might not totally agree these some of these lines,
8:03
Speaker 1: so I might go against it. Unlike last week where
8:06
Speaker 1: I couldn't tell you how many pros like literally messaged me,
8:09
Speaker 1: and especially about that Cleveland Pittsburgh game where even our
8:12
Speaker 1: fans are getting good now they're understanding how the line
8:14
Speaker 1: works in the movement, and everyone's message me and saying,
8:17
Speaker 1: aren't you terrified of this line like not moving to
8:20
Speaker 1: seven like you thought it was going to And I was,
8:22
Speaker 1: I was just like, oh my god. The sports books,
8:24
Speaker 1: they clearly have a read here, and then they don't
8:26
Speaker 1: think that. I think they honestly thought that came was
8:29
Speaker 1: gonna be Pittsburgh one by three. I think that's the
8:31
Speaker 1: way they had the Lion because opened what was a
8:33
Speaker 1: three and a half, and I think they still felt
8:36
Speaker 1: confident enough with the game script where you know, the
8:39
Speaker 1: first thirty plays, the fancy is gonna write those plays
8:42
Speaker 1: up for Baker and the team. That's not that was
8:45
Speaker 1: not worried. The worried with the Browns was after they
8:47
Speaker 1: go off those thirty players, they were off script. What
8:49
Speaker 1: are the Browns gonna look at look like? And they
8:53
Speaker 1: got the gift from the gods. They literally started the
8:55
Speaker 1: game up fourteen nothing in Roethlisberger through three interceptions start
8:58
Speaker 1: the game, So a twenty enough theme lead. You can
9:01
Speaker 1: throw out all the numbers. Oh well, everything I believe
9:04
Speaker 1: in that coaching matters out the window at that point.
9:06
Speaker 1: That was kind of one of those where it was
9:08
Speaker 1: the worst game in the history of Pittsburgh ever at home,
9:12
Speaker 1: and I happened to bet on Pittsburgh in that game.
9:15
Speaker 1: So yeah, buddy, it's it's a rough week, but it's
9:18
Speaker 1: one of those where I just feel back for the fans,
9:20
Speaker 1: but for us, I'm money major, right. I pulled out
9:23
Speaker 1: our four thousand, two hundred just because I just knew
9:26
Speaker 1: going in that I didn't feel great about it, and
9:29
Speaker 1: our bills future still alive. So it worked out for
9:32
Speaker 1: us so far that we lost this week. We lost
9:36
Speaker 1: the look man, but it was probably like a thousand,
9:38
Speaker 1: seven hundred about like because every everything I was wrong on,
9:41
Speaker 1: like the Pittsburgh money line killed us, um, the Seahawks
9:45
Speaker 1: money line killed us. The Seahawks future has killed us.
9:48
Speaker 1: So it's tough, but people can see how really is.
9:51
Speaker 1: It's like I I mean, I don't hide from it.
9:54
Speaker 1: I'll put my picks out there, Like if I own it.
9:57
Speaker 1: It sucks, and yeah, people can come at me, and
9:59
Speaker 1: I won't blo come this week because I deserve it.
10:01
Speaker 1: Like that was horrible, horrible showing by your guy. But
10:04
Speaker 1: it's one of those where I just go to work
10:06
Speaker 1: on the system and I'm hoping this week. I'm not
10:08
Speaker 1: even trying to get back what's lost. I'm just gonna
10:10
Speaker 1: consistently bet what I bet every week. So it's not
10:12
Speaker 1: one of those where I'm chasing. It's just I had
10:14
Speaker 1: to keep trusting my system and updating and hopefully I
10:17
Speaker 1: catch up to these numbers. Because you're gonna say right now,
10:19
Speaker 1: the home fielder really did not matter for any of
10:21
Speaker 1: these teams. It was really interesting. So it's fascinating you
10:24
Speaker 1: pulled it out. Uh. I'm thrilled you did. Uh because
10:28
Speaker 1: because because the other the other night, Stacy, my wife
10:34
Speaker 1: was like, so, so we won week seventeen, Like we
10:38
Speaker 1: won Week seventeen. She was like, how did we do
10:41
Speaker 1: this weekend? I'm like, we do not win. We did
10:44
Speaker 1: not win. I think we lost everything. I think we
10:47
Speaker 1: basically lost everything that we had we had won in
10:50
Speaker 1: Week seventeen. She's like, well, that's going the wrong way.
10:53
Speaker 1: And so now I can tell her that we actually
10:57
Speaker 1: are done and like we cashed out and so that's amazing.
11:03
Speaker 1: As usual, you're on top of it. Yeah, I mean, dude,
11:06
Speaker 1: I like I am a pro, like I know the
11:08
Speaker 1: money manage and I'm never I'm never gonna chase And
11:12
Speaker 1: this is the fact that we did make a profit
11:14
Speaker 1: the week seventeen, which just made it an easy choice
11:16
Speaker 1: just to be like, I mean, I don't know, I'm
11:18
Speaker 1: gonna have to pay on taxes on this. I'm assuming
11:20
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be one of the two hundred, but like,
11:22
Speaker 1: I don't care. We can still split it up evenly.
11:24
Speaker 1: But it's nice knowing that, yeah, we lost that money,
11:28
Speaker 1: but we're both getting a thousand hunred each thank you DraftKings,
11:31
Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell's getting money, and we have a futures
11:33
Speaker 1: on the Bills, which is Matt Mitchell's favorite team. So
11:37
Speaker 1: best case scenario, if if the Bills win the Super Bowl,
11:40
Speaker 1: like maybe we'll each make an extra thousand on top
11:42
Speaker 1: of it. So we're all we're all hoping it works
11:45
Speaker 1: out for the Bills and we'll dive into it. But yeah,
11:47
Speaker 1: it's it's that's half the game. We talked all the
11:49
Speaker 1: time money management and knowing what you're good at what
11:52
Speaker 1: you're not. That's how you can make a profession in this.
11:54
Speaker 1: And it was weird trying to gamble for you guys,
11:57
Speaker 1: because it's like going from Wall Street to like trade
12:00
Speaker 1: penny stocks. It's just it's just two different worlds where
12:03
Speaker 1: it is. It's just weird. It's like, um, it's weird
12:07
Speaker 1: to manage such a small amount of money after not
12:09
Speaker 1: doing that in such a long time. And it was fun, honestly,
12:13
Speaker 1: like it was fun trying to win you guys the money.
12:15
Speaker 1: But yeah, it sucked when that Pittsburgh when they were
12:18
Speaker 1: down twenty eight nothing I knew that was pretty much
12:21
Speaker 1: our biggest bet was Pittsburgh. I was just like, oh
12:23
Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe it. That just went this
12:25
Speaker 1: bad this weekend. So I don't know if I should
12:28
Speaker 1: be should just be like completely insulted. It's fun winning
12:36
Speaker 1: like you like Pia, It's a couple of dollars. It's
12:40
Speaker 1: just it feels great for me. It feels like nice
12:43
Speaker 1: charity that I did a nice thing for you guys. Well,
12:46
Speaker 1: it's just awesome because thanks again to our friends and DraftKings,
12:50
Speaker 1: Like we were playing with house money, you know what
12:52
Speaker 1: I mean. So it was it was just fun to
12:53
Speaker 1: know that it would be a nice like Manella says,
12:55
Speaker 1: it's a nice extra Christmas bonus. So like I was
12:58
Speaker 1: just trying to make it a pretty number, Like if
13:00
Speaker 1: I could get it up to where me and you
13:01
Speaker 1: were both taking home three thousand and Matt Mitchell that
13:03
Speaker 1: got like eight or nine, that just would have been awesome.
13:06
Speaker 1: But I came up Sure. But if the bill has
13:09
Speaker 1: come through for us, we're all die hard Bills fans
13:11
Speaker 1: now because the Bears future, in the Seahawks future, we're
13:14
Speaker 1: just complete duds. Well we all know as as Matt
13:17
Speaker 1: Mitchell told us before the podcast, we know that he
13:22
Speaker 1: like has conscripted his entire block to be Bills fans.
13:26
Speaker 1: And this weekend when they won, because he was from
13:28
Speaker 1: Western New York and he loves the Bills. When they
13:31
Speaker 1: won this week, he bought everybody on the block a
13:35
Speaker 1: Cartner bed. And Jerry's so already know he's spending the
13:37
Speaker 1: profits that he made from the podcast, and we already
13:40
Speaker 1: know he's spending His future is beat um. But it
13:46
Speaker 1: would be nice if we could help him sort of,
13:48
Speaker 1: you know, support his habit of turning his block into
13:52
Speaker 1: his block in Milwaukee into bills fans. Matt Mitchell, I'll
13:58
Speaker 1: then we'll then you guys after us because I found yours.
14:00
Speaker 1: Be Chad wasn't hard to find because apparently send a
14:04
Speaker 1: ton of money to our good friend Scott Scott Miller.
14:06
Speaker 1: So I just thought that was funny. I was able
14:09
Speaker 1: to find the Chad Millman just from all you send.
14:13
Speaker 1: I got to find Matt Mitchell. So, Matt, we'll have
14:15
Speaker 1: to text me his mobile. Yeah, I'll send it to
14:17
Speaker 1: you guys a day. Chad, you can do this stuff
14:19
Speaker 1: on your house. Man Mitchell will fix the hole in
14:21
Speaker 1: his basement. It's all good, baby, signon. You're a class act.
14:26
Speaker 1: We uh, we owe you so much more than we
14:28
Speaker 1: can ever repay you. Um. But we do have to
14:31
Speaker 1: deliver for the fans. We do have to deliver for
14:34
Speaker 1: the fans the big balls. Matt Mitchell sending men as
14:39
Speaker 1: we speak. I love. We have to deliver the big
14:43
Speaker 1: balls better the week, which, by the way, is the
14:45
Speaker 1: one game we won last week. I think when we
14:47
Speaker 1: talked about it, Washington was plus eight and a half.
14:51
Speaker 1: They covered by eight. Thank you, Tyler Heineke I was
14:53
Speaker 1: hoping the Bears could make a trade for Taylor Heineke
14:56
Speaker 1: sometime Sunday morning, even with a separated a C joint
15:00
Speaker 1: in his non throwing shoulder, I knew I was not
15:03
Speaker 1: betting on the Bears at plus ten, and no matter what,
15:05
Speaker 1: no matter what it got to, we got to do
15:07
Speaker 1: our unattractive bet, the hornet's nest bet. We gottat our
15:11
Speaker 1: foxhole bet. We got what we got. Four games this
15:15
Speaker 1: weekend Light Slate, four sides, four totals, working on a
15:20
Speaker 1: model that Simon Hunter can't stand. But that's okay. We're
15:24
Speaker 1: gonna slog through it. Are you ready, Simon Hunter? I'm
15:30
Speaker 1: ready for my friend. Saturday afternoon, five, we got the
15:34
Speaker 1: Rams visiting the Packers. Interesting game because it opened at
15:37
Speaker 1: seven and then immediately got bet down to six and
15:40
Speaker 1: a half. That is all about. I don't know what
15:42
Speaker 1: that's about. Actually, I'm looking at the percentages in the
15:45
Speaker 1: Action Network gap and it's like money and bets coming
15:49
Speaker 1: on the Packers. So maybe it's a couple of wise
15:50
Speaker 1: guys betting on the Rams. Yeah, that's gotta be a
15:53
Speaker 1: smart group that came in and just better right right
15:55
Speaker 1: when it came out, something that me and you were
15:57
Speaker 1: talking and uh yeah, people can judge me about going
16:01
Speaker 1: to bed at eight thirty on Sunday night. That's just
16:03
Speaker 1: what I do. I have to wake up and watch
16:05
Speaker 1: all the films of all the games from the previous week.
16:07
Speaker 1: It's just a habit. During the season. I literally go
16:09
Speaker 1: to bed early and I'll wake up at three four
16:11
Speaker 1: in the morning and make more bests for the upcoming weeks.
16:14
Speaker 1: So it's I hated it too. I hate that I
16:16
Speaker 1: wake up so Earli. There's some days where I have
16:18
Speaker 1: nothing to do and I still wake up at three
16:19
Speaker 1: four in the morning, but to have it so for
16:21
Speaker 1: this game, it's the same. I viewed as the same
16:26
Speaker 1: as I did with the Seahawks in the Rams last week,
16:28
Speaker 1: where I knew the Rams were banged up. I know
16:30
Speaker 1: that Rams have a great defense and looking at Packerstin,
16:34
Speaker 1: that's well rested at home. But again, I have this
16:37
Speaker 1: number of four in my system, and I'm that's so
16:41
Speaker 1: I'm worried about this week that I adjusted too much
16:43
Speaker 1: to this home team not being as much value. But
16:47
Speaker 1: this this game feels like it should be four four
16:48
Speaker 1: and a half. So right now I think all the
16:51
Speaker 1: value is on the RAMS, but watching golf last week,
16:54
Speaker 1: he can't grip a football. When he's put throwing the ball,
16:57
Speaker 1: he's kind of pushing it out of his hand. He's
16:59
Speaker 1: not really putting any spin on it. And the packagers there, honestly,
17:05
Speaker 1: their strength is upfront, but they just have great cornerbacks.
17:08
Speaker 1: And it makes me a little worried here. If it
17:11
Speaker 1: is gonna be golf this week, I wouldn't be as
17:13
Speaker 1: confident in this number. But to me that this has
17:16
Speaker 1: to be our foxhole, better the week. Let's clide down
17:22
Speaker 1: into the foxhole. Oh no, we're already in the fox
17:28
Speaker 1: hole just because no one, no one really believes in
17:32
Speaker 1: this RAMS. I mean, I know the pros did last week.
17:34
Speaker 1: That was just a sharp game. We talked all the
17:37
Speaker 1: time about fading the public, and that's what hurt me
17:38
Speaker 1: last week was getting away from that if you just
17:40
Speaker 1: fade the public. Last week against the spread, I was
17:42
Speaker 1: four and two. I think on totals it might have
17:44
Speaker 1: been fourn to Urs three and three, um, depending on
17:47
Speaker 1: when you got that Titan's number. But it's it's a
17:51
Speaker 1: weird week where I just think that defense is really
17:55
Speaker 1: something that I value here in the playoffs. And looking
17:59
Speaker 1: at all the teams left, this is the best defense
18:01
Speaker 1: by far in the Rams. So we'll see what the
18:04
Speaker 1: deal is. If it's golf, I won't play this. I can't.
18:08
Speaker 1: I can't back golf in this game because I'm gonna
18:10
Speaker 1: need to make throws here because the Packers they might
18:13
Speaker 1: get shut down here offensively. But we know Aaron Rodgers,
18:16
Speaker 1: he's gonna get to that twenty number. He's gonna get
18:18
Speaker 1: to twenty at home. So for me, I'll wait on
18:22
Speaker 1: this number because I need more info and hopefully the
18:24
Speaker 1: public will come in heavy like you talked about on
18:26
Speaker 1: green Bay, and this time we'll go back to seven.
18:28
Speaker 1: I can get the Rams at seven again. But right
18:31
Speaker 1: now I have this game that all the value is
18:33
Speaker 1: on the Rams alright, So we'll wait on that and
18:36
Speaker 1: see how Jared Golf is doing. I also curious about
18:39
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald, like he's so important to that defense, and
18:42
Speaker 1: he did not look good when he went out of
18:44
Speaker 1: that game the other day. The total in this game
18:46
Speaker 1: opened at forty seven. It got that down to forty
18:49
Speaker 1: five and a half. Massive, massive money coming in on
18:53
Speaker 1: the under you just mentioned. You think green Bay the
18:57
Speaker 1: key number there, the magic number. They will get to twenty.
19:01
Speaker 1: So then the question boo coomes do they get to
19:04
Speaker 1: do they get to thirty? Can the Rams get to fifteen?
19:07
Speaker 1: Like how are you thinking about the total in this game?
19:10
Speaker 1: So it's it sounds weird, but the number I came
19:15
Speaker 1: out like my meeting the most likely outcome for this
19:17
Speaker 1: game is nineteen. So my my system's favorite in the
19:22
Speaker 1: undersaw being I took that under already. I think I
19:25
Speaker 1: don't think I got that good. I think it was seven.
19:27
Speaker 1: I hope I didn't get that unfortunately, got forty six,
19:29
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. But I like down there
19:32
Speaker 1: because usually with Green Bay we get cold here and
19:34
Speaker 1: both these teams they're designed around the run. I know
19:38
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers m v P. This year the offense was
19:41
Speaker 1: lights out, but we have Ramsey that's gonna be shouting
19:44
Speaker 1: Davante Adams, which is probably one of my favorite matchups
19:47
Speaker 1: to watch this week, And you are right that is
19:50
Speaker 1: worried some with Aaron Donald because he he did try
19:52
Speaker 1: to come back and he didn't look right after the injury,
19:55
Speaker 1: but he's so tough man. I could just see him
19:57
Speaker 1: getting shot up before the game with horse tranquilizers and
19:59
Speaker 1: he's just gonna play like this guy is just a warrior.
20:02
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's that's surprising that that much money is coming.
20:06
Speaker 1: But these these pros must have a read on it,
20:08
Speaker 1: and they must like gender as well. But if if
20:11
Speaker 1: it crosses down to forty two, I would probably take
20:15
Speaker 1: that over because it just feels like that's a key
20:17
Speaker 1: number with these two offenses. But it's it's a it's
20:20
Speaker 1: an interesting total, but I wouldn't make it one of
20:22
Speaker 1: our best fives, all right, So that is not a
20:27
Speaker 1: hornets nest. That is not a big balls. But we
20:31
Speaker 1: have chosen a foxhold. We have decided that the Rams
20:35
Speaker 1: plus six and a half is the foxhold bet. Assuming
20:39
Speaker 1: that Jared Goff is uh, we can see what's gonna
20:42
Speaker 1: be happening with Jared Goff. I don't know that anything
20:44
Speaker 1: is gonna change. I'm doubtful that Wolford is gonna play.
20:49
Speaker 1: It feels like it's going to be a Jared golf game.
20:51
Speaker 1: So I feel like you've got to commit really to me. Yeah,
20:57
Speaker 1: I still want to wait though, but I know what
20:59
Speaker 1: you mean, should commit. But I'm not really worried about
21:01
Speaker 1: this number getting too too low. I still think it's
21:04
Speaker 1: gonna stay up here just because everyone's gonna be teasing
21:07
Speaker 1: and taking the moneyline of the packers. Like I did
21:10
Speaker 1: a big bet yesterday where I did um Obama's money
21:13
Speaker 1: line with Green Bay's money line. So there's me plenty
21:16
Speaker 1: of people. I mean, they did the Joe Public money
21:18
Speaker 1: line bets like that. So I just think that enough
21:21
Speaker 1: money will come in with Packers that we can wait
21:23
Speaker 1: on this point. I think they'll get back to seven
21:24
Speaker 1: if it does, and we're feeling confident on Saturday, I
21:27
Speaker 1: don't mind putting this in as our best five. All right,
21:30
Speaker 1: all right, Ravens plus two and a half, big big
21:34
Speaker 1: win on the road last week in Tennessee. They fooled
21:40
Speaker 1: us like the Dickens. We loved Tennessee. H And by
21:44
Speaker 1: the way, what I did love was I think on
21:47
Speaker 1: Saturday morning we were texting about the bills Colts, and
21:51
Speaker 1: I loved the bills. I had already bet the bills,
21:54
Speaker 1: and You're like, yeah, we're not putting the bills in.
21:56
Speaker 1: It's weird that this line hasn't moved off a six
21:58
Speaker 1: and a half a week. Sure enough, your instincts were
22:02
Speaker 1: spot on. So sometimes like you win by not making
22:06
Speaker 1: the bet. Meanwhile, the Bills are two and a half
22:09
Speaker 1: point favorites at home against the Ravens. Come on, What's what?
22:16
Speaker 1: And that's why I'm so mad at my stuff. Is
22:17
Speaker 1: like I knew as a pro, I knew that Colts game,
22:20
Speaker 1: I knew that Rams game, and I knew that Cleveland
22:23
Speaker 1: game just stuck out like games that I should know better. Well,
22:26
Speaker 1: like soon those those numbers did weird things where they
22:28
Speaker 1: didn't move and the pub was still coming heavy on
22:30
Speaker 1: the other sides. That's why I'm so bad at myself.
22:32
Speaker 1: It's like, as a professional, I look for those situations.
22:35
Speaker 1: The fact that I went with the public against them
22:38
Speaker 1: that was just that was just terrible. I just put
22:39
Speaker 1: too much faith again into my system. But so before
22:42
Speaker 1: I updated it, I had this at Bill's minus two
22:46
Speaker 1: and a half. And then once I did updated, I
22:47
Speaker 1: headed the pick. Basically my mode was saying take the
22:50
Speaker 1: Ravens here, that's where the value is, and I'm gonna
22:53
Speaker 1: bring the human element into this where I I just
22:55
Speaker 1: think that we saw a moment there with Josh Allen
22:58
Speaker 1: Att right before half time, his team was down ten seven,
23:02
Speaker 1: He had the ball in his four yard line and
23:04
Speaker 1: he drove the field and got a touchdown for the
23:07
Speaker 1: Bills before the half time. And that's one of those
23:09
Speaker 1: moments where you know when you're looking at greatness and
23:13
Speaker 1: above normal. And again we see with Lamar those runs
23:17
Speaker 1: he did last week. We're incredible, but he's still not
23:20
Speaker 1: making the plays with his arm, and I don't think
23:24
Speaker 1: he'll be able to do that kind of running against
23:26
Speaker 1: a Bill's team that has a great lineback and corps.
23:29
Speaker 1: And the way the numbers moved to scary me a
23:31
Speaker 1: little bit. It dropped down to one and a half
23:33
Speaker 1: and then it bounced back up to two at certain books.
23:34
Speaker 1: Now it's of the two and a half at certain books.
23:36
Speaker 1: It's been fluctuating here, but I'm gonna go guess my model.
23:39
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep riding this Bills training where I just
23:41
Speaker 1: think Josh Downs turned a corner here. I really have
23:44
Speaker 1: a ton of faith in this kid that even if
23:46
Speaker 1: we're down, I think he has enough belief in itself
23:49
Speaker 1: and his arm and his weapons that he's gonna play
23:51
Speaker 1: big enough forces. And another game where injuries are a
23:55
Speaker 1: little scary. Cold Beasley. He didn't look completely healthy in
23:58
Speaker 1: the last game, but he had huge catches on their
24:00
Speaker 1: downs for them and digs. He looked area in the game,
24:03
Speaker 1: but he came to the game probable. And I think
24:06
Speaker 1: that's why maybe the early money came in the Ravens,
24:08
Speaker 1: because they're thinking, yourself, maybe the bills are banged up
24:11
Speaker 1: here and we're getting good value on the Ravens. But
24:14
Speaker 1: I just think that the bills are for real, And
24:16
Speaker 1: if you believe in the teams for real and you're
24:17
Speaker 1: getting under a field goal, you have to you have
24:20
Speaker 1: to buy in. So I understand why people want to
24:22
Speaker 1: take the Ravens. My model likes the Ravens value here.
24:25
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna do the human on me here and
24:27
Speaker 1: think that I believe it. Offen, Josh Allen, I do
24:29
Speaker 1: think he's gonna win this game. So I'm taking the
24:30
Speaker 1: bills here. Now where a minute, the bills make me
24:38
Speaker 1: want something? Sound, throw your hand something, sound bro your
24:43
Speaker 1: hand back from all now the bills. I'm making it happen. Now,
24:48
Speaker 1: stand up, not com on and shout shouted right now, baby,
24:57
Speaker 1: come on, come on, come on and shot. Yeah, buffamost happening.
25:06
Speaker 1: Now we're on the moon. Now, fills all happen. Now,
25:10
Speaker 1: we're making it happen. Now The spirit's a lot of spirit. Yeah,
25:15
Speaker 1: got the spirit? Did happened? Now let's go Bubal. Let's
25:28
Speaker 1: let's go Bufal. The Bills make me wanna happy, all right.
25:36
Speaker 1: So if you had not said anything about your model,
25:39
Speaker 1: and you would not said anything about the Ravens essentially
25:43
Speaker 1: making this game pick, I would have been all all
25:45
Speaker 1: over the Bills. I'm getting a really good team that's
25:49
Speaker 1: got great momentum at less than field goal, with a
25:54
Speaker 1: quarterback who's on fire, a defense that is getting better,
25:59
Speaker 1: a lights out siver like great coaching. There's no way
26:03
Speaker 1: I wouldn't take this team as less than a field
26:05
Speaker 1: goal favorite, except that I look at the Ravens and
26:10
Speaker 1: think they finally figured it out, Like they got out
26:13
Speaker 1: of their dull rooms. They remind they remembered who they are.
26:17
Speaker 1: Their rushing game is ridiculous. That's a huge problem for
26:20
Speaker 1: the Bills. Despite what you say about their linebackers. The
26:23
Speaker 1: rushdie is not very good. Like I don't know, I
26:28
Speaker 1: don't know if I can I don't know if I
26:29
Speaker 1: can back. This is like one of our five best bets,
26:31
Speaker 1: the Bills, because we like the human element and going
26:34
Speaker 1: against your model, that is what gets us in trouble.
26:38
Speaker 1: When we act human, we get in trouble. Ask my kids.
26:43
Speaker 1: That's true. But I'm I'm with you on your Ravens point.
26:47
Speaker 1: But it's still one of those where people think that
26:50
Speaker 1: Lamar got his demons out of him. He loses this game.
26:53
Speaker 1: Guess what Lamar's record now is in the playoffs. He's
26:55
Speaker 1: one in three. So I'm happy for Lamar. I'm happy
26:58
Speaker 1: for the Ravens fans, but it sounds like you're buying
27:01
Speaker 1: to the Ravens team that barely beat a team that
27:04
Speaker 1: I think they were ranked in defense, uh in the Titans,
27:08
Speaker 1: and they put up what's seventeen or twenty on them.
27:10
Speaker 1: So I'm just a little nervous here about the Ravens.
27:13
Speaker 1: Where I did think Lamar played great, he ran well,
27:17
Speaker 1: but it was more about Tannehill just let them down
27:19
Speaker 1: in that game with the Titans. Like the Titans gonna
27:21
Speaker 1: put up twenty points at home. I don't know, man,
27:23
Speaker 1: It's it's a little scary. Where the Bills played against
27:26
Speaker 1: the Colts team that had the perfect game Rivers, I
27:30
Speaker 1: don't even know. I mean, I think he through for
27:32
Speaker 1: four and year yards and he never turned the ball over.
27:34
Speaker 1: He played that game perfect the Colts and they still
27:37
Speaker 1: lost to a Bills team. That's what's giving much confidence
27:39
Speaker 1: Pills team. It's like they just took a team's best
27:42
Speaker 1: shot on defense and offense and they still somehow prevailed
27:46
Speaker 1: in one of the games. They even play their best games.
27:48
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. It's it's we're split on it,
27:51
Speaker 1: so we won't take it. Uh. But I as a
27:55
Speaker 1: Bill's future background, I'm feeling confident right now. And one
27:58
Speaker 1: more thing before you even move on from that, um,
28:01
Speaker 1: if you believe in Green Bay, I'm seeing some books
28:04
Speaker 1: that's still green Bay plus one forty to win the NFC.
28:08
Speaker 1: That seems like crazy value to me. Where they're playing
28:11
Speaker 1: a banged up Ramps team and then they're either gonna
28:13
Speaker 1: get a forty year old Drew Brees or a forty
28:16
Speaker 1: year old Tom Brady at home in cold Lambeau. So
28:20
Speaker 1: if we're just talking about bets I've made right now
28:22
Speaker 1: for little futures, I think there's really good value. It's
28:24
Speaker 1: the Packers there, because I can't see them being underdogs
28:27
Speaker 1: at home to either of those teams if they win. So,
28:30
Speaker 1: if you're getting a plus one forty team right now
28:33
Speaker 1: at home and the Packers to win it all. I
28:35
Speaker 1: think they're there's a really good value there the NFC
28:37
Speaker 1: to take the Packers to win it. What do you
28:40
Speaker 1: think of the total total is about forty nine and
28:42
Speaker 1: a half fifty under. It's it's uh, I mean this
28:47
Speaker 1: could be if you want to actually we will save
28:50
Speaker 1: the big balls, but this will take big balls about
28:52
Speaker 1: this under because both these offenses are potent. They both
28:56
Speaker 1: score at high, high level, and they can both score
29:00
Speaker 1: at any time. They have pieces that can score. But
29:04
Speaker 1: it was a weird thing where you have to get
29:06
Speaker 1: the best of number last week with the Bill's Colts
29:07
Speaker 1: that they literally came down to half a point. If
29:10
Speaker 1: you got fifty one and a half, you catch the under.
29:12
Speaker 1: If you've got fifty and a half, you catch the over.
29:15
Speaker 1: So it's one of those I'll just take the younger
29:17
Speaker 1: because I think both these defense I know what you said,
29:19
Speaker 1: it's true with the Bills can be running on. But
29:22
Speaker 1: I just take they'll bounce back here and it gets
29:24
Speaker 1: a Ravens team that wants to run the ball, control
29:26
Speaker 1: the clock, keep Josh Allen off the field. That just
29:30
Speaker 1: there's just reeks of a low scoring under game where
29:33
Speaker 1: in my model. I had this at let me look
29:36
Speaker 1: at it right now. I had it at twenty two
29:39
Speaker 1: to twenty with the bills, so it's it's a weird
29:43
Speaker 1: one where when I updated it it was at forty
29:46
Speaker 1: three forty three. That's why I had the game at
29:48
Speaker 1: a pick like my my motto just did it's gonna
29:50
Speaker 1: be a tie. But beforehand I had a forty forty,
29:53
Speaker 1: which I still think totals I didn't do great on
29:56
Speaker 1: last week, I still did pretty good, so I'm still
29:58
Speaker 1: using that for my totals. So I'm gonn I roll
30:00
Speaker 1: with that. I'm gonna take the ender of this week
30:01
Speaker 1: in this game, Uh you say uh this to me?
30:07
Speaker 1: Reeks have used the phrase reeks this reeks of Josh
30:11
Speaker 1: Allen as Lamar Jackson circa January, where everyone in the
30:18
Speaker 1: world believes he is unbeatable and he has turned one
30:22
Speaker 1: dimensional by a crushing Ravens defense that demolished Derrick Henry,
30:29
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, we're asking ourselves, Josh Allen
30:33
Speaker 1: can't get past a good defense in the playoffs after
30:35
Speaker 1: doing everything he did. I'm just saying, hell, you're just
30:38
Speaker 1: a goddamn color. I want to have songs of pitches.
30:41
Speaker 1: We're afraid to fight standing up this place of honor.
30:44
Speaker 1: Hear me. Goddamn god, Wow, how dare you? Matt Mitchell?
30:49
Speaker 1: How dare this guy? How dare you? How dare you?
30:55
Speaker 1: I know, I know, but listen, I'm gonna root for
30:57
Speaker 1: our futures. It's all we got left because we also,
31:00
Speaker 1: like our bearest future is dead. Our Steelers futures are dead,
31:03
Speaker 1: Our Cardinals and Broncos futures are dead, our Vikings future
31:06
Speaker 1: is dead. We gotta root for the Bills. Yeah, it's
31:09
Speaker 1: it's like, honestly, the only the only thing I will
31:13
Speaker 1: save my season now with my futures aren't even the Bills.
31:16
Speaker 1: I need actually the Bucks to somehow come through and
31:19
Speaker 1: when it's Super Bowl to save all my futures. Bets
31:22
Speaker 1: like that was my just by luck. I bet them
31:25
Speaker 1: before I went away because I thought Winston was gonna
31:27
Speaker 1: be back with them. But I was like, hey, Fife,
31:30
Speaker 1: why not throw a little throw a little here on
31:32
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. But exactly what you said, man, is I
31:35
Speaker 1: dug my I dug myself in the hole here with
31:37
Speaker 1: these futures, and even the bills, the Bills do prevail,
31:41
Speaker 1: it will pay out nice for me, but um, I'm
31:44
Speaker 1: in a weird spot with the Buccaneers. That's that's most
31:47
Speaker 1: sports books, that's their biggest liability right now. So I
31:51
Speaker 1: pretty much I'm ready to like that ticket on fire
31:53
Speaker 1: because we all know the sports book never loses, so
31:55
Speaker 1: that's probably dead one there. With the bucks. We will
31:57
Speaker 1: have to get into. Uh. I've gotten some in teking
32:00
Speaker 1: questions on Twitter, people of DM made just about like
32:03
Speaker 1: the lifestyle of professional better and things like that. And
32:05
Speaker 1: I think next week, when there's only two games, I
32:07
Speaker 1: do want to get into a little bit about hedging
32:10
Speaker 1: as we head into Championship weekend. If you have Super
32:14
Speaker 1: Bowl tickets on any of those teams, like, how do
32:16
Speaker 1: you want to think about hedging? And as we get
32:18
Speaker 1: into like I want people to hear a little bit
32:20
Speaker 1: more about just sort of the lifestyle of professional betting.
32:24
Speaker 1: We got our Sunday games, two Sunday games. The first game,
32:28
Speaker 1: uh mid afternoon the Browns, the resurgent, the inspirational Browns
32:35
Speaker 1: ten point dogs on the road against the Chiefs. If
32:39
Speaker 1: there was ever a time to fade the Browns and smash, smash,
32:46
Speaker 1: smash the Chiefs, it is this weekend. Big Balls better
32:52
Speaker 1: the week, big balls, better the week, And for saying yourself,
33:01
Speaker 1: how how does this take balls? That bet the Chiefs
33:05
Speaker 1: because no one believes in the Chiefs right now. They
33:07
Speaker 1: haven't covered and what seems like two months, they haven't
33:10
Speaker 1: played a football game now in three weeks, Andy read
33:13
Speaker 1: off of bye, that's it, That's all you need to say,
33:16
Speaker 1: Andy Reid Off of bye. Andy, you had a cheeseburger
33:20
Speaker 1: in celebration of the a f C championship games. That true,
33:23
Speaker 1: I did a good one, just one stick. I can't
33:27
Speaker 1: see this Brown's team that we know what their defenses.
33:30
Speaker 1: Their defenses, they can get a turnover too. They have
33:33
Speaker 1: a chance to win or cover a game if they
33:35
Speaker 1: don't get any turnovers. That defense is horrible. They don't
33:38
Speaker 1: have anyone that can stop a good offense. And we
33:41
Speaker 1: saw Ben Roethlisberger, who can't throw the ball deep. What
33:44
Speaker 1: do you put up thirty nine points? I forgot how
33:46
Speaker 1: many points the end up with. But Pittsburgh, they kind
33:49
Speaker 1: of showed the blueprint of what every team is done
33:51
Speaker 1: to the Browns this year, which is you can just
33:52
Speaker 1: pass on them. So well, you just said they're gonna
33:55
Speaker 1: be a square Dog of the Week. I mean, I'm
33:56
Speaker 1: a little scared. We'll talk about the Bucks team that
33:58
Speaker 1: might be the square dog two of the week. But
34:00
Speaker 1: this is just one of these games where the public
34:02
Speaker 1: exactly what you're saying. They're thinking of. The Browns are
34:04
Speaker 1: team of dustiny. Now after that last game, a game
34:06
Speaker 1: that I honestly gave him no chance to win, and
34:08
Speaker 1: they really showed up as a team, and Baker played
34:11
Speaker 1: well in that game. He made big throws. I cannot
34:15
Speaker 1: do it. I cannot back the Browns here against Patrick Mahomes.
34:18
Speaker 1: And we talked last year when I came on the show,
34:21
Speaker 1: I kept I kept giving out the Chiefs at a
34:23
Speaker 1: high number. I think it was Houston. They played in
34:25
Speaker 1: the Titans, and both times I said I had them
34:27
Speaker 1: at I think the Houston had him in minus fourteen.
34:31
Speaker 1: And we saw happened in that game. They came back
34:34
Speaker 1: and they scored fifty four straight points. And the final
34:36
Speaker 1: week against the Titans, which was a public dog. Everyone
34:39
Speaker 1: loved the Titans after they had just upset the Ravens
34:41
Speaker 1: and just beat the Patriots. I think that line was
34:45
Speaker 1: I think it was plus a plus nine, and it
34:47
Speaker 1: got bet down to like seven and seven and a
34:49
Speaker 1: half um for the Titans. The Chiefs beat him by eleven.
34:52
Speaker 1: So it's another one of those weeks where I think
34:56
Speaker 1: a lot of sharps are actually gonna come in on
34:57
Speaker 1: the Chiefs here, and they're gonna trust any read's gonna
34:59
Speaker 1: have these guys right. Maybe the Browns is a smart
35:02
Speaker 1: first half. Bet you can bet that the Chiefs come
35:04
Speaker 1: out slow and sloppy. But I think once the Chiefs
35:07
Speaker 1: are getting in a groove, I don't think they're gonna
35:08
Speaker 1: take the foe off the gas like they did there
35:10
Speaker 1: in the regular season. I think they're gonna kill these guys.
35:12
Speaker 1: So I'm with you, this is one of these I'd
35:14
Speaker 1: happily put in with the Chiefs. Chiefs, by the way, Uh,
35:18
Speaker 1: you're right in your assessment. I'm looking at the data
35:22
Speaker 1: right now in the Action network gap the Betts, that
35:27
Speaker 1: is the public coming in on the Browns as ten
35:30
Speaker 1: point dogs of the money, the professionals coming in on
35:36
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs and signing we are nothing if
35:39
Speaker 1: not professionals. The total in this game and a half.
35:43
Speaker 1: You get an opinion, Yeah, I gotta take the under
35:46
Speaker 1: here again where we've seen the Chiefs they wanted to
35:48
Speaker 1: try to run the ball more bulk control, and we
35:51
Speaker 1: know what that the brown staples. So I could see
35:54
Speaker 1: the public coming in on the over because the Browns
35:56
Speaker 1: they can give up so many points and the Chiefs
35:58
Speaker 1: that can score out of point in spot. I have
36:01
Speaker 1: to do the under I just I just can't see
36:05
Speaker 1: this kind of game script where either the team is
36:07
Speaker 1: gonna want to be playing fast. I think both of
36:09
Speaker 1: them want to keep each team's offense off the field.
36:11
Speaker 1: So I like to underhear at that number. Alright, last
36:15
Speaker 1: game on the slate, we had talked about this Sunday
36:17
Speaker 1: night in our instant reaction video. The Bucks are three
36:22
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs at the Saints. Right now
36:24
Speaker 1: it opened it four, got down to three. Now it's
36:27
Speaker 1: a three and a half. Uh, you were right about
36:29
Speaker 1: this one too. You just said you thought that the
36:31
Speaker 1: box might be the public dog of the week. They
36:34
Speaker 1: are getting fifty eight percent of the bets. The flip
36:37
Speaker 1: side is that unlike the Browns Chiefs, where the majority
36:41
Speaker 1: of the promont the pros are betting on the Chiefs,
36:44
Speaker 1: you're also getting a majority of the money on the
36:47
Speaker 1: box in this scenario. Um, do we still like the
36:51
Speaker 1: box at plus three? And a half. Yeah, it's interesting
36:55
Speaker 1: that it went back from three up to three and
36:57
Speaker 1: a half. Again. Uh, a little scary because that's usually
37:01
Speaker 1: a sign on them telling you that, uh, some pro
37:04
Speaker 1: group has a good read here on the Saints and
37:06
Speaker 1: the books trust in that group. But it's it is.
37:09
Speaker 1: This is an interesting weekend. Man. We have the NFC
37:12
Speaker 1: with all the old guard quarterbacks. We've got two quarterbacks
37:15
Speaker 1: plaining in their forties Rodgers what And then you go
37:19
Speaker 1: over the FC and the oldest quarterbacks Baker what is
37:22
Speaker 1: he like? So it's interesting looking at this where it's
37:26
Speaker 1: just two different splits here where we're looking at a
37:31
Speaker 1: time of just not the change in the guard. But
37:33
Speaker 1: it's just it's just funny how the league just evolves
37:35
Speaker 1: and change. And looking at this game again where the
37:38
Speaker 1: Bucks and the Saints it's the third time they've seen
37:41
Speaker 1: each other now and we talked, like you said on
37:44
Speaker 1: Sunday night where I just thought this number should just
37:46
Speaker 1: be three, that it's one of those where you give
37:50
Speaker 1: respect to the Saints for what they've done this year
37:52
Speaker 1: and the text that they beat the Buccaneers twice. And
37:55
Speaker 1: I had this number in my model of two and
37:57
Speaker 1: a half because obviously I've taken a little to points
38:00
Speaker 1: away from the Saints here just because they have no
38:02
Speaker 1: fans in the stadium. And I everything we've seen from
38:08
Speaker 1: the Saints that that Browns gave them a gift him
38:12
Speaker 1: him dropping that ball there in the end zone where
38:15
Speaker 1: Mitch Robinsky might only make four great throws in a game,
38:18
Speaker 1: and that was one of the great throws that was
38:19
Speaker 1: literally right through his arms in their bread basket. And
38:25
Speaker 1: the Saints got away with the one. It felt like
38:26
Speaker 1: they got away with one there with the Bears, the
38:28
Speaker 1: Bears defense saying at you one. They showed up in
38:31
Speaker 1: that game. And I can't see the Buccaneers having back
38:37
Speaker 1: to back just sloppy games because I don't think they
38:39
Speaker 1: played well against the Watchington game. I watched that game twice. Now,
38:42
Speaker 1: we had our opportunities, but Brady just played a flawless game.
38:45
Speaker 1: He never gave an opportunity to turn the ball over.
38:47
Speaker 1: He got sacked a couple of times. I think he
38:48
Speaker 1: had three or four sacks against him, but he never
38:51
Speaker 1: gave the ball away. And what I've seen from from
38:54
Speaker 1: Drew Brees here is he's willing to throw a couple
38:56
Speaker 1: of risky paths here, and he doesn't have the stream
38:58
Speaker 1: arm strength on his arm. And I just like it
39:01
Speaker 1: that we're getting three and a half still with the Buccaneers.
39:04
Speaker 1: I know it's a square pick, but to me, this
39:06
Speaker 1: is just a smart smart side here, and I'm gonna
39:09
Speaker 1: ask you to be my companion and take that three
39:10
Speaker 1: and a half with me. I am going to be
39:13
Speaker 1: your companion because we are walking into a hornet's nest, brother,
39:18
Speaker 1: and we are taking the public dog Tampa Bay Buccaneers
39:23
Speaker 1: at plus three and a half. Be my companion. I'm
39:28
Speaker 1: walking to a fucking hornets nest, all right now, Be
39:30
Speaker 1: my companion. If it doesn't move like if this, if
39:34
Speaker 1: this number doesn't look back to three or goes up
39:37
Speaker 1: to four, we're gonna talk because like then I'll have
39:39
Speaker 1: to be like, Okay, I gotta reach out to some
39:41
Speaker 1: people and hear what they're reading on this game, because
39:44
Speaker 1: this just feels like a no brainer to mean that
39:45
Speaker 1: you should be three and it is. It is scary
39:49
Speaker 1: that they're moving against the public here with us, but
39:52
Speaker 1: the public can't lose both weeks through ow can they chat?
39:54
Speaker 1: So hopefully they hopefully they get a game right here
39:57
Speaker 1: for us. What do we think of the total here?
39:59
Speaker 1: Fifty one and a half fifty two and this is
40:03
Speaker 1: gonna be already talked to a bunch of sharps and
40:05
Speaker 1: they told me they pounded this game under. Um, I
40:08
Speaker 1: don't know what the money stayed on your site, but
40:10
Speaker 1: like these guys I talked about like the under right now,
40:16
Speaker 1: and I think seriously it might be three guys. I
40:18
Speaker 1: know because they're like big money betters. They don't make
40:20
Speaker 1: a lot of bets, and each of them Sunday Night
40:22
Speaker 1: said heavy, heavy bet on the under in this game.
40:26
Speaker 1: But I'm leaning the other side right now. I got
40:29
Speaker 1: burned in that Bears game because Mitch didn't show up.
40:32
Speaker 1: But I still think the Saints defense can give up points.
40:34
Speaker 1: I still think they're susceptible a good offense. And we
40:38
Speaker 1: just saw the Buckingheers get how many points? Did uh
40:41
Speaker 1: the the Washington to get twenty or twenty one or
40:44
Speaker 1: I forget the number one? The Yeah, like they were
40:46
Speaker 1: able to score on this Buck's defense. So I'm gonna
40:50
Speaker 1: go against my my, my brother in here. I'm gonna
40:52
Speaker 1: take take the over here, but it's scary, so I
40:55
Speaker 1: won't put it as our best five. But man, that
40:59
Speaker 1: that's that's crazy. Easy money's coming down the under right now.
41:03
Speaker 1: That is nuts, nuts of the money coming in on
41:10
Speaker 1: the under. All right, So here's what we like right now.
41:14
Speaker 1: We like the Los Angeles Rams plus six and a half.
41:17
Speaker 1: We're hoping for plus seven. We like the under forty
41:21
Speaker 1: five and a half. We like the Buffalo Bills. You
41:25
Speaker 1: kind of like the Buffalo Bills at two and a half.
41:27
Speaker 1: Like we're split. I like the Ravens and plus two
41:31
Speaker 1: and a half. We both the big balls better the week.
41:38
Speaker 1: We love love the Kansas City Chiefs minus ten. We
41:42
Speaker 1: also like the under fifty five and a half there.
41:44
Speaker 1: And then finally, we are aligned as the public dog
41:49
Speaker 1: on the um Tampa Bay Buccaneers and we like that
41:55
Speaker 1: at three and a half. You like the under fifty
41:58
Speaker 1: one and a half fifty two in that game, even
42:00
Speaker 1: though the professionals are pounding, pounding, pounding the under in
42:06
Speaker 1: that game, you lack the over. We'll talk later on,
42:09
Speaker 1: but yeah, once we do the Super Bowl, I'm sure
42:11
Speaker 1: we'll do a Super Bowl recapture after. I'll try to
42:14
Speaker 1: do the same thing where I'm just giving out fifty
42:16
Speaker 1: to one long shot odds on Super Bowl guys, because
42:19
Speaker 1: that's what you're looking for. You you want to have
42:21
Speaker 1: these huge long shots that you can just hedge. And
42:23
Speaker 1: we'll talk more, like you said next week about hedging.
42:26
Speaker 1: That's what my main job is right now, is like
42:28
Speaker 1: to help people hedge in these playoffs with their futures.
42:32
Speaker 1: Uh depends when you got it. But the bills were
42:36
Speaker 1: to one or twenty two to one after the super Bowl,
42:38
Speaker 1: so we'll break it down. But like usually, I do
42:42
Speaker 1: love to do a bunch of Super Bowl futures right
42:45
Speaker 1: before I leave for a vacation for a month. So
42:48
Speaker 1: we'll definitely break that down, buddy, after the super Bowl
42:52
Speaker 1: hundred percent. All right, we gotta give away some money. Okay,
42:58
Speaker 1: we're gonna give aways some money. We're gonna announce the
43:01
Speaker 1: winner of last week's phrase the Pays. But a reminder,
43:06
Speaker 1: we are doing it again. The winner will earn a
43:09
Speaker 1: hundred dollars for every win Simon and I have this week.
43:12
Speaker 1: We will match that number with a donation to the
43:15
Speaker 1: winner's favorite charity. To be eligible, listen up to be eligible,
43:20
Speaker 1: go follow at the Favorite Pod. Send us your submission
43:26
Speaker 1: for the player who broke your heart this past wild
43:29
Speaker 1: Card weekend. Got a tag at the favorite pod in
43:32
Speaker 1: your tweet, gotta follow at the favorite pod, Matt Mitchfield
43:36
Speaker 1: will sift through the submissions randomly choose the winner. You
43:41
Speaker 1: will win the money the winner of last week's phrase
43:45
Speaker 1: that pays contest the Somber Shuffle at Terrero Drizzle. That's
43:53
Speaker 1: at t O R E r O Drizzle. The favorite
44:00
Speaker 1: spot my NFL gambling m v P. Aside from at
44:05
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter ten helping me more than double my bank
44:09
Speaker 1: roll is Kyler Murray hit him and the Cardinals hard
44:14
Speaker 1: for early Winds, transition to fade garbage, Cliff Kingsbury and
44:19
Speaker 1: beat up Kyler to end the year. I feel like
44:21
Speaker 1: this person. Also, it was a shout out to old
44:25
Speaker 1: boy uncle Mitch Matt Mitchell producer because he was on
44:28
Speaker 1: the anti Cliff Kingsbury train doing videos about how much
44:31
Speaker 1: he hated Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury, So congrats at Terrero
44:39
Speaker 1: Drizzle the Somber Shuffle. Reach out to Matt dot Mitchell
44:43
Speaker 1: at Action Network to get your prize. Simon another week
44:50
Speaker 1: in the books, my friend. Yeah, it sounds like a
44:53
Speaker 1: sharp list and I wish we could have got more money.
44:54
Speaker 1: But this week I wish I'd give a guarantee of
44:57
Speaker 1: a five and oh, but I'm gonna guarantee a three
44:59
Speaker 1: and two. I feel a good winning week here. I
45:01
Speaker 1: like these numbers. So whoever wins this week, I promise
45:05
Speaker 1: you it'll be better than It'll be better than a hundred.
45:08
Speaker 1: It can't. It can literally only be one game worse
45:11
Speaker 1: than last week. So so we can only do as
45:16
Speaker 1: bad or even better. That's the beauty. As for Sign
45:20
Speaker 1: the Hunter at Simon Hunter Tan, I am Shad Milman.
45:23
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Action Network downloader
45:27
Speaker 1: to Apple podcasting, Spotify. Wherever did you get your podcast?
45:30
Speaker 1: Until next time, I Love you