Latest / The SME Stream / Nick Brunsdon: Infometrics Principal Economist on the latest job data, state of the economy

Transcript

Nick Brunsdon: Infometrics Principal Economist on the latest job data, state of the economy · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Right jobs. Where are we at the economies providing excellent data?
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: So far? There's year confidence manufacturing services or good numbers
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: for employment. To round out the USO sale, we'll add
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: volumes of down zero point three applications with Joba down
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: zero point one. Taranaki's hot construction looks increasingly strong and
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Nick Brunsdon is the principal economist it Informetrics sanders with
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: us Nick morning, Is zero point three a thing? Or
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: can we say it's broadly flat?
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: I would call it broadly flat, and it was positive
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: over the previous six months, but I would still call
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: that broadly flat.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: So we can't read it because my next part of
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: that was is December a thing? In other words, we
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: all want to go away for Christmas? So why would
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: we hire anyone? Is that part of the equation.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Or not in terms of the month and month, Yes,
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: but it did show that that trend we saw increase
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: them through twenty five, the tail off a little bit
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: in December, so that will be a little bit. Yeah.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Big question is five point three it and we're on
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the downward slide and getting better? I think so.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: I mean the job adways in December, but we have
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: seen that from for example, the AMZ business outlocks. Surveyed
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: businesses are more keen to hire, and coming into twenty six,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: we've seen employment hasn't has stopped declining. So everything is positive,
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: it's just not showing that we're in a raw and
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: recovery just yet.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: No, is it a slow burn. My fear is capacity
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: for this country, whether we can even if we wanted to,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: do we have the wherewithal to get up and running
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: or is there a bit of a potential stall or
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: slow burn on when it comes to jobs.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not sure that the supply is going
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: to be the constraint. You know that on the demand side,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: the demand to hire a lot of people just isn't there.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: We're not expecting it to be a really quick recovery,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: so I don't think a lack of people is going
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: to hold us back. And and you know, with that
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: five point three percent unemployment right, we do have a
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: fair bit of fair capacity. We're still getting four times
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: as many applicants for jobs on seek as we were
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: three years ago, so there's still a lot of people
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: looking for work.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: The sector variability, is there anything in that construction, good, retail?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Not so much.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, construction's good and that's great. It is a big employer,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: especially in areas like Auckland, but it's coming from a
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: very low base and it's had a really rough time
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: for the last couple of years. Retails a bit more
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: side layer as well, that's okay. To manufacturing's showing some
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: really positive sign which is really encouraging. Again, that's a
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: really key sector employing a lot of people, especially in
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: big centers like Auckland.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Okay. The most important economic marker, of course is the
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Nick Brunston view of twenty twenty six of you bullish
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: or not.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Positive? Weekly positive?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, weekly positive, in absolutely waveringly positive.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't waiver on that. But yeah, it's not going
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: to be a roaring recovery in twenty six.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: All right, mane, nice to appreciate it. Nick Brunston, whose
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: principal economist leads demographer as well at Inframentary. For more
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: from the Mic Casking Breakfast, listen live to news talks.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.