Latest / The President's Daily Brief / September 25th, 2026: China’s Secret Lifeline to Iran’s War Effort Exposed & Trump-Xi Summit

Transcript

September 25th, 2026: China’s Secret Lifeline to Iran’s War Effort Exposed & Trump-Xi Summit · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:13
  It's Friday,
• 0:13
  the 25th of September,
• 0:15
  and welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
• 0:17
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:18
  your eyes and ears
• 0:19
  on the world stage,
• 0:20
  and yes,
• 0:22
  still on the road,
• 0:23
  coming to you from,
• 0:24
  um,
• 0:24
  well,
• 0:25
  a hotel room somewhere
• 0:27
  and look at the suit.
• 0:28
  Oh,
• 0:28
  check out Mr.
• 0:29
  Businessman
• 0:30
  as
• 0:31
  David Byrne sings.
• 0:32
  All right,
• 0:32
  let's get briefed.
• 0:34
  First up,
• 0:34
  US and Iranian negotiators are indirectly through mediators.
• 0:39
  Discussing a phased deal,
• 0:40
  they could reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• 0:43
  and end Washington's blockade of Iran.
• 0:45
  Well,
• 0:46
  it seems like we've heard that story before.
• 0:48
  I'll have the details
• 0:49
  later in the show.
• 0:50
  Yemen's government forces claim that they've
• 0:53
  repelled the latest Houthi offensive.
• 0:55
  While Saudi Arabia says it intercepted 6
• 0:58
  ballistic missiles aimed at Saudi targets,
• 1:00
  including
• 1:01
  an important Red Sea port,
• 1:03
  plus more suspected Russian sabotage in Europe this time
• 1:07
  after Poland says a fire at a Starlink station
• 1:10
  supporting Ukraine's military was deliberately set.
• 1:14
  And in today's back of the brief,
• 1:15
  the Pentagon is trying to recover
• 1:18
  F-35 fighter jet parts
• 1:20
  that were accidentally diverted to Hong Kong and seized by Chinese authorities.
• 1:25
  Ah,
• 1:26
  has anyone seen my F-35 parts?
• 1:28
  I ordered them like a week ago.
• 1:31
  All right,
• 1:31
  first,
• 1:32
  today's afternoon spotlight.
• 1:34
  After nearly 7 months of war,
• 1:36
  the US and Iran may finally be discussing a deal
• 1:39
  that could begin bringing the conflict to an end.
• 1:42
  Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
• 1:44
  and Washington
• 1:45
  would lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
• 1:48
  According to Reuters,
• 1:49
  negotiators in New York are exploring a phased
• 1:52
  arrangement built around those two pressure points.
• 1:55
  Iran would allow commercial shipping to move through Hormuz again.
• 1:59
  While the US would begin easing the blockade
• 2:01
  that has choked off Iranian oil exports
• 2:04
  and put severe pressure on the regime's economy.
• 2:08
  Of course the talks are still preliminary,
• 2:10
  and of course
• 2:11
  we've seen plenty of false starts in
• 2:13
  supposed negotiations over the past several months.
• 2:16
  Now the biggest complication
• 2:18
  is that the same leverage that brought both sides
• 2:20
  back to the table or close to the table
• 2:23
  is also what neither side wants to give up first.
• 2:27
  For Iran,
• 2:27
  the Strait of Hormuz remains one of its most powerful weapons.
• 2:30
  Closing the waterway has allowed Tehran to put pressure not just on the US
• 2:35
  but on global oil markets and America's allies in the Gulf.
• 2:39
  For Washington,
• 2:39
  the blockade of Iranian ports has become
• 2:41
  its strongest economic weapon against Iran.
• 2:44
  We've spent weeks
• 2:45
  documenting what that pressure has done.
• 2:48
  Iranian oil exports have been squeezed.
• 2:51
  Overland alternatives have run into bottlenecks.
• 2:54
  And Washington has continued adding sanctions aimed at cutting
• 2:57
  Tehran off from additional sources of revenue and trade.
• 3:01
  Now for the first time.
• 3:02
  Those two pieces are reportedly being discussed
• 3:05
  together as part of a potential deal.
• 3:08
  A senior Iranian official told Reuters that one possible first step
• 3:12
  would be relatively straightforward
• 3:14
  reopen Khomuz,
• 3:15
  lift the blockade,
• 3:17
  and potentially give Iran access
• 3:19
  to some of its frozen assets.
• 3:22
  After that,
• 3:23
  the two sides could move on theoretically
• 3:25
  to harder issues in later stages.
• 3:28
  Now that's the theory.
• 3:29
  So the US gets the straight back to what it was prior to the conflict
• 3:34
  while the Iranian regime remains firmly in control,
• 3:38
  gets economic relief
• 3:39
  and potential access to its frozen assets.
• 3:43
  I'm sure there's a win in there somewhere for the US administration,
• 3:46
  but it's a bit hard to see.
• 3:48
  Tehran had been pushing for ships using the Strait of Hormuz to pay transit fees,
• 3:52
  something the Gulf states rejected.
• 3:54
  Now,
• 3:54
  according to regional sources cited by Reuters,
• 3:57
  Iran
• 3:58
  may be willing to move that demand out of
• 4:00
  the main agreement and into a side arrangement instead,
• 4:04
  because
• 4:04
  getting the blockade lifted appears to have become the more urgent priority.
• 4:09
  That does not mean that Tehran is giving up its broader claims over the strait.
• 4:12
  Iran still wants to preserve what it describes
• 4:15
  as administrative control over the Strait of Hormuz,
• 4:18
  while Gulf states remain strongly opposed,
• 4:20
  of course,
• 4:21
  to any arrangement
• 4:22
  that would allow the regime to turn the
• 4:24
  waterway into a permanent instrument of pressure.
• 4:27
  But the fact that Iran may be willing to possibly defer one of its demands
• 4:32
  is in itself notable.
• 4:34
  It suggests that at least in part perhaps
• 4:37
  the economic pressure is beginning to shape the negotiations.
• 4:40
  Or conversely,
• 4:42
  Iran believes that they have dragged this conflict out long enough
• 4:45
  that they can now extract some concessions from the US
• 4:49
  The regime
• 4:49
  still appears to believe that it's negotiating for a position of strength
• 4:53
  despite the undeniable pressure that its economy is under.
• 4:57
  The White House,
• 4:57
  as it has on numerous occasions,
• 5:00
  is saying that Iran is desperate for a deal,
• 5:02
  that President Trump holds a stronger hand,
• 5:04
  and that the blockade has helped drive the Iranian economy toward collapse.
• 5:08
  That is the administration's assessment
• 5:11
  again.
• 5:12
  The Iranian regime believes that it's the other way around,
• 5:15
  that the Trump administration is keen for a deal
• 5:18
  to get this conflict resolved
• 5:19
  and off the radar
• 5:21
  ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
• 5:23
  Former US negotiator Dennis Ross told Reuters that
• 5:26
  both sides may actually have more incentive to make progress before the election.
• 5:30
  For Trump,
• 5:31
  reopening Hormuz could help contain politically sensitive gasoline prices
• 5:35
  and reduce uncertainty in the Middle East.
• 5:37
  For Iran,
• 5:38
  the calculation may be that Trump has more incentive to make a deal now
• 5:42
  than he might after the election.
• 5:44
  After the midterms,
• 5:45
  of course,
• 5:46
  depending on the outcome,
• 5:47
  that could change.
• 5:49
  Trump may feel less political pressure to compromise and
• 5:51
  more freedom to increase sanctions or resume military action.
• 5:56
  So the election may not be a deadline for an agreement,
• 5:59
  but it could be a deadline for the current balance of incentives.
• 6:02
  Then of course
• 6:03
  there's the
• 6:04
  caveat
• 6:05
  that if the Republicans do not do well in the midterm elections,
• 6:08
  And Trump
• 6:09
  loses the House and possibly the Senate,
• 6:12
  uh,
• 6:13
  that could be exactly what the Iranian regime is calculating.
• 6:16
  Now,
• 6:16
  despite the diplomacy,
• 6:17
  Tehran is making clear that it's
• 6:19
  preparing for the possibility that talks fail.
• 6:22
  One senior Iranian official told Reuters,
• 6:24
  quote,
• 6:24
  Our fingers are on the trigger.
• 6:27
  And said the chances of diplomacy succeeding remain very
• 6:30
  low if Washington maintains what Tehran considers excessive demands.
• 6:34
  Now just to clarify,
• 6:35
  you probably shouldn't put more than one finger on the trigger.
• 6:38
  It's just a safety message to the Iranian regime.
• 6:41
  Meanwhile,
• 6:42
  the Gulf states are caught in the middle.
• 6:44
  They want the Strait of Hormuz reopened and the fighting brought under control,
• 6:48
  but they also reject the idea that Iran should gain
• 6:50
  lasting control over who can move through the Strait.
• 6:53
  That leaves negotiators with a fairly simple problem to describe
• 6:58
  and a very difficult one to solve.
• 7:00
  Iran doesn't want to reopen Hormuz until it gets meaningful economic relief.
• 7:04
  Washington
• 7:05
  does not want to lift the blockade
• 7:07
  until it knows that commercial shipping will remain safe,
• 7:10
  and neither side,
• 7:11
  of course,
• 7:11
  wants to surrender its strongest bargaining chip first.
• 7:16
  Coming up next,
• 7:17
  Yemen's government says it repelled another Houthi offensive,
• 7:21
  and Poland investigates suspected sabotage
• 7:23
  at a Starlink station that's supporting Ukraine.
• 7:27
  I'll be right back.
• 7:29
  Hey,
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  Welcome back to the BDB.
• 8:34
  Yemen's Saudi-backed government says its forces
• 8:36
  have repelled the latest Houthi offensive,
• 8:39
  stopping an overnight push toward a critical supply route
• 8:42
  connecting the southern city of Aden with Taiz.
• 8:45
  The fighting centered around Hajjad al-Abd,
• 8:47
  a steep mountain pass that
• 8:49
  has become increasingly important
• 8:50
  as the Houthis try to expand beyond the Red
• 8:52
  Sea coastline that they seized earlier this month.
• 8:56
  The road is a lifeline for government forces and civilians in Taiz
• 8:59
  carrying supplies north from Aden
• 9:01
  and providing one of the few remaining routes out of the area.
• 9:05
  So if the Houthis were able to seize portions of that road,
• 9:08
  well,
• 9:08
  they could further tighten their grip around Taiz and put additional pressure
• 9:12
  on Yemen's internationally recognized government,
• 9:14
  which of course has struggled.
• 9:16
  To regain its footing since losing the western coast,
• 9:19
  now we should note that the details are coming from the Saudi-backed side,
• 9:23
  and Reuters
• 9:24
  has not independently verified the battlefield claims.
• 9:27
  But if they hold,
• 9:28
  it would represent one of the first meaningful setbacks for the Houthis
• 9:32
  since their rapid advance along the Red Sea coast nearly two weeks ago.
• 9:36
  And while that fighting was unfolding inside Yemen,
• 9:38
  the Houthis were also launching another round of attacks against Saudi Arabia.
• 9:43
  The Saudi-led coalition says air defense
• 9:45
  has intercepted 6 ballistic missiles on Thursday
• 9:48
  aimed toward the southern province of Taif and the Yanbu area on the Red Sea.
• 9:53
  At this point there are no confirmed reports of casualties
• 9:56
  or significant damage,
• 9:58
  but the target around Yanbu is particularly important.
• 10:01
  Yanbu is home to major Saudi oil infrastructure and
• 10:04
  serves as one of the kingdom's most important alternatives
• 10:07
  for exporting crude when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
• 10:12
  Saudi Arabia has been working to increase the amount of oil
• 10:15
  moving west through its east-west pipeline toward Yanbo.
• 10:18
  That pipeline was
• 10:19
  shut down earlier this month
• 10:21
  following drone attacks that Riyadh blamed on an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia.
• 10:26
  So just as Saudi Arabia prepared to be getting that route back online,
• 10:30
  the Houthis once again put the Yanbu region in their sights,
• 10:34
  and there was another interesting development during that attack.
• 10:37
  Greek security officials told Reuters that a Patriot air
• 10:40
  defense battery operated by Greek military personnel in Saudi Arabia
• 10:44
  shot down a ballistic missile and a drone in the wider Yanbu region.
• 10:49
  Greece has had that US-made Patriot battery deployed in Saudi Arabia
• 10:53
  since 2021
• 10:55
  to help protect the kingdom's energy infrastructure.
• 10:58
  This was reportedly the fifth time that
• 11:00
  the Greek-operated system has been used in combat
• 11:02
  since the U.S.Iran war began back in February.
• 11:06
  Another example
• 11:07
  of how this conflict has steadily pulled America's allies
• 11:10
  into the defense of Gulf infrastructure.
• 11:13
  Saudi civil defense officials also issued warnings
• 11:16
  covering a wide area including Jeddah,
• 11:18
  Mecca,
• 11:19
  Taif,
• 11:19
  and Yanbu.
• 11:20
  Authorities issued a warning for Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia,
• 11:24
  something Reuters notes
• 11:26
  had not happened previously during this latest escalation.
• 11:29
  The Houthis meanwhile claimed a separate
• 11:31
  attack farther south against military sites in
• 11:35
  Jazan province,
• 11:36
  saying they used dozens of ballistic missiles and drones against command centers,
• 11:40
  weapons depots,
• 11:41
  and missile launch sites.
• 11:43
  Saudi Arabia has not confirmed that attack.
• 11:46
  So
• 11:47
  inside Yemen,
• 11:48
  government forces are trying to stop the
• 11:49
  Houthis from turning their rapid coastal gains.
• 11:52
  Into an even broader offensive
• 11:54
  and across the border,
• 11:55
  the Houthis are continuing to use missiles and drones
• 11:58
  to pressure Saudi Arabia directly,
• 12:00
  particularly
• 12:01
  the infrastructure that Riyadh needs
• 12:03
  to keep oil moving while the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat.
• 12:08
  Turning to Europe and specifically Russia's hybrid campaign against Europe,
• 12:12
  a Polish government minister
• 12:14
  says someone set fire to a Starlink station in
• 12:17
  an attempt to disrupt internet access used by Ukraine,
• 12:21
  including its military.
• 12:22
  The fire broke out Wednesday evening at the station in central Poland,
• 12:26
  and the Polish deputy prime minister says the flames
• 12:28
  engulfed both the power system and backup generator.
• 12:32
  While it's not conclusive,
• 12:33
  the deputy prime minister says,
• 12:34
  quote,
• 12:35
  Many signs suggest this aligns with Russia's new doctrine of attack,
• 12:39
  end quote.
• 12:40
  But authorities
• 12:40
  have not publicly presented evidence tying Moscow to this particular attack.
• 12:46
  He's much firmer about what he believes
• 12:48
  the person responsible wanted to accomplish.
• 12:50
  He called it sabotage,
• 12:51
  saying the fire was deliberately designed to disable the station,
• 12:55
  effectively cutting off the internet connection
• 12:57
  and disrupting internet access for various institutions,
• 13:01
  including the Ukrainian military,
• 13:02
  end quote.
• 13:04
  Now the station is back online,
• 13:06
  although Ukraine has not publicly said whether it
• 13:08
  lost service while the facility was down.
• 13:11
  Echoing warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk,
• 13:13
  the Deputy Prime Minister referred to it as quote an element of hybrid warfare.
• 13:18
  This apparent sabotage does matter a great deal given
• 13:21
  just how much Ukraine has come to rely on Starlink
• 13:24
  since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
• 13:27
  Elon Musk activated the satellite internet service after Kiev asked
• 13:30
  for help in the first days of the war.
• 13:33
  Poland
• 13:33
  reportedly pays for Ukraine's subscription.
• 13:36
  Now Warsaw has been watching for threats like this for years
• 13:40
  since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• 13:43
  Poland and other European governments have investigated fires,
• 13:46
  cyber attacks,
• 13:47
  and attempted sabotage,
• 13:49
  with Western officials attributing some of those incidents
• 13:51
  to Russian intelligence or its proxies.
• 13:55
  Russia has repeatedly denied carrying out sabotage inside NATO countries,
• 13:58
  which of course is a shocking surprise.
• 14:01
  This is why officials keep referring to Russia's hybrid warfare.
• 14:04
  An operation can damage infrastructure or interfere with aid to Ukraine
• 14:08
  without looking like an open military attack,
• 14:11
  and the uncertainty over who carried it out
• 14:13
  makes a response much harder to agree on.
• 14:16
  You may remember our coverage
• 14:17
  of Germany blaming Russia for an attempted drone attack at Leipzig Halle Airport.
• 14:22
  Well,
• 14:23
  European Union members called for new sanctions in response to that incident.
• 14:26
  And then on Thursday,
• 14:28
  Denmark's military intelligence service
• 14:30
  warned that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid campaign against NATO
• 14:34
  and the West in the coming months.
• 14:37
  It expects more frequent attacks with
• 14:39
  greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past,
• 14:43
  end quote.
• 14:44
  The Danish assessment says Russia has increasingly
• 14:46
  moved beyond trying to frighten Europeans or
• 14:48
  weaken public support for Ukraine.
• 14:51
  It's also trying to stop that support from reaching Kiev,
• 14:54
  including through sabotage targeting defense companies and railway transport.
• 14:59
  Denmark also raised a separate possibility that goes beyond sabotage.
• 15:03
  Its intelligence service sees a low but growing risk
• 15:07
  that Russia could launch a limited military attack
• 15:09
  against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia
• 15:12
  potentially in the coming months.
• 15:14
  It called such an attack a desperate move,
• 15:17
  and with that in mind,
• 15:18
  you ask what might such an attack look like.
• 15:21
  Well,
• 15:21
  Denmark's intelligence chief described isolated drone or
• 15:24
  missile strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
• 15:27
  Russia might then claim a weapon landed in NATO territory by accident or
• 15:32
  stage a false flag attack with Ukrainian-made drones
• 15:35
  to make Kiev appear responsible.
• 15:37
  Danish intelligence also raised the possibility of sending a
• 15:40
  small number of troops into a NATO border area
• 15:43
  potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
• 15:47
  As you can imagine,
• 15:48
  the Russian embassy in Denmark rejects the assessment,
• 15:51
  saying there's no credible evidence
• 15:53
  behind the accusations
• 15:54
  and accusing Western governments of driving up tensions over Ukraine,
• 15:59
  which of course Russia invaded,
• 16:00
  thereby
• 16:01
  driving up tensions.
• 16:03
  All right.
• 16:03
  Coming up in the back of the brief,
• 16:05
  F-35 parts meant for the US
• 16:08
  took an unexpected detour to Hong Kong and are
• 16:11
  now in Chinese hands.
• 16:12
  Excuse me,
• 16:13
  we'd like our F-35 parts back.
• 16:15
  More on that when we come back.
• 16:19
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  In today's back of the brief,
• 18:28
  I want to talk about an embarrassing security problem
• 18:31
  involving one of America's most advanced fighter jets.
• 18:34
  The Pentagon is trying to recover parts from an F-35 that somehow
• 18:38
  wound up in the hands of the Chinese government back in May,
• 18:41
  and four months later,
• 18:42
  no government body in the US or abroad has publicly explained how they got there.
• 18:47
  And most importantly,
• 18:48
  China still hasn't returned them.
• 18:50
  Well,
• 18:50
  they're probably still trying to calculate the postage.
• 18:53
  The parts came from an Australian military F-35.
• 18:55
  American shipping giant UPS
• 18:57
  was taking them back to the US in late May,
• 19:00
  where they were supposed to be inspected and
• 19:02
  either repaired or disposed of.
• 19:04
  Obviously
• 19:05
  this wasn't your average package.
• 19:08
  It gets lost in the mail.
• 19:10
  Inside were a cockpit canopy
• 19:12
  and a weapons bay door from an F-35.
• 19:15
  Now it's even more than just highly sensitive components there.
• 19:18
  People briefed on the incident told Bloomberg
• 19:20
  that both are coated with material that helps keep the F-35 off of enemy radar.
• 19:26
  So picture the route.
• 19:27
  The shipment leaves Australia,
• 19:28
  stops in South Korea,
• 19:30
  and should be on its way to the US
• 19:32
  Instead it turns up in Hong Kong.
• 19:34
  And we still don't know why.
• 19:36
  Was someone deliberately steering it there,
• 19:38
  or was this just a colossal shipping mistake?
• 19:41
  Neither the Pentagon nor Australian defense
• 19:43
  officials have answered that publicly.
• 19:46
  There's also no reported evidence that China arranged the diversion,
• 19:49
  but Beijing didn't have to arrange it to benefit from what happened.
• 19:53
  Chinese authorities took possession of the parts,
• 19:55
  and months later
• 19:56
  they still haven't returned them.
• 19:58
  Now I want to point out that Lockheed Martin calls the
• 20:00
  parts unserviceable and says they pose a low risk of exploitation.
• 20:04
  Now that may be their assessment,
• 20:06
  but it still doesn't excuse this as a routine shipping problem.
• 20:10
  The F-35 Joint Program Office says it is
• 20:13
  actively working with US authorities and industry partners
• 20:16
  to retrieve those components.
• 20:19
  It's also investigating the incident
• 20:21
  and looking at safeguards to prevent it from happening again.
• 20:24
  Well,
• 20:24
  that's not a bad idea.
• 20:26
  Australia is also examining what happened on its end.
• 20:29
  Chinese President Xi Jinping is currently in
• 20:31
  Washington for meetings with President Trump.
• 20:33
  Maybe
• 20:33
  he knows how it all came about.
• 20:35
  There's no indication though that the
• 20:37
  missing F-35 components
• 20:39
  will be on the agenda
• 20:40
  for the summit.
• 20:41
  And that my friends,
• 20:42
  is the president's Daily Brief for Friday,
• 20:45
  the 24th of September.
• 20:46
  Now,
• 20:46
  if you have any questions or comments,
• 20:47
  and I hope you do,
• 20:48
  just reach out to me at PDB@thefirstv.com.
• 20:52
  And finally,
• 20:53
  it being Friday and all,
• 20:55
  a brand new episode of the PDB Situation Report
• 20:57
  is set to beam into your homes at 10:00 p.m.
• 21:00
  this evening
• 21:01
  on the first TV.
• 21:02
  Terrific guests,
• 21:03
  great analysis of key world developments,
• 21:06
  and no empty calories.
• 21:08
  You can also catch it in past episodes on our YouTube channel.
• 21:11
  Just wander on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief
• 21:15
  and of course on podcast platforms
• 21:17
  everywhere.
• 21:18
  I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB
• 21:21
  afternoon bulletin.
• 21:22
  Until then,
• 21:23
  stay informed,
• 21:24
  stay safe,
• 21:25
  stay cool.