Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Early 104% Tariff Shocks China!🚨Crypto Market Crashes🔥

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Early 104% Tariff Shocks China!🚨Crypto Market Crashes🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: The trade war has begun and China and the US
0:09
Speaker 1: are now going blow for blow. Today we'll break it
0:11
Speaker 1: down for you. My name is Paul Barron. Welcome back
0:13
Speaker 1: in the tech path. Let's get started with all of
0:15
Speaker 1: this happening, there is going to be a flight to safety,
0:18
Speaker 1: and many people are looking at bitcoin and other digital assets.
0:22
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0:24
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0:27
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0:28
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0:30
Speaker 1: do a trade, earn a little bit of money, but
0:32
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0:34
Speaker 1: you can put money into usd C and get paid
0:38
Speaker 1: almost for over four percent now, so that's obviously flexible.
0:41
Speaker 2: Check it out.
0:42
Speaker 1: Use our link down below to get started.
0:44
Speaker 2: Let's go with it.
0:45
Speaker 1: Let's get on to a couple of big points right now.
0:48
Speaker 1: The tariffs have come early, so Christmas has come early
0:52
Speaker 1: for the US and China is paying the bill. The
0:55
Speaker 1: White House says additional one hundred and four percent tariffs
0:57
Speaker 1: went into effect today at noon, so that was a
1:00
Speaker 1: big hit on China. And of course with that, there
1:03
Speaker 1: has been pretty much a route going back between the two.
1:08
Speaker 1: You look at the Chinese yuon right now falling to
1:10
Speaker 1: its lowest level in over two years. If you look
1:13
Speaker 1: at the chart on this, this just shows the yuon
1:16
Speaker 1: all the way back into twenty fifteen. It has somewhat
1:19
Speaker 1: stabilized right here around twenty two. But this has been
1:23
Speaker 1: the plummeting issue that many people have talked about quite
1:27
Speaker 1: a bit around China's unstable economy. This trade war is
1:31
Speaker 1: not something that is going to do well. Bitcoin may
1:34
Speaker 1: also soar as Chinese investors now are protecting against the
1:37
Speaker 1: yuon falling. This is coming in from Arthur Hayes. And
1:41
Speaker 1: you know when you look at the yuon against Bitcoin,
1:44
Speaker 1: this I think would be a good bet. Let me
1:45
Speaker 1: kind of zoom in on a couple of those highlights there. Historically,
1:49
Speaker 1: these conditions have prompted Chinese investors to seek alternative assets.
1:52
Speaker 2: Bitcoin has often fallen to the top of the list.
1:54
Speaker 1: And also remember in twenty thirteen, Bitcoin gained significant traction
1:58
Speaker 1: in China after fear about the PBC easing the monetary policy,
2:04
Speaker 1: and that of course changes the dynamic within the economy
2:07
Speaker 1: in China. Also in twenty fifteen, a surprise three percent
2:10
Speaker 1: yuon devaluation triggered bitcoin price rally. That could be a
2:14
Speaker 1: scenario that is playing out right now. It may be
2:17
Speaker 1: early for this to occur, because I think there will
2:20
Speaker 1: need a little to be a little bit of an
2:21
Speaker 1: effect here of how these tariffs go into place, and
2:24
Speaker 1: also how well China's position on the yuon can hold globally.
2:29
Speaker 2: Because that'll be a factor.
2:30
Speaker 1: Now if you look at holdings right now in terms
2:32
Speaker 1: of bitcoin, US and China currently holding the top, that
2:37
Speaker 1: is something to consider as well, because China could start
2:40
Speaker 1: selling bitcoin. They've already started selling US treasuries, which might
2:44
Speaker 1: end up being a silver lining for the markets. Because
2:46
Speaker 1: if that is the case, then you understand what's going
2:49
Speaker 1: to be next by the Fed. Let's get into this
2:52
Speaker 1: right here. Trump says, if China does not withdraw their
2:55
Speaker 1: thirty four this is their thirty four percent April eighth,
2:58
Speaker 1: the US will impose an additional fifty percent tariff on
3:02
Speaker 1: April ninth. This is coming down the pipe quickly, and
3:06
Speaker 1: I think this is the issue right now with China,
3:09
Speaker 1: and as we start to see how and when each
3:13
Speaker 1: of these titans are going to play this out, the
3:15
Speaker 1: real question is is who has the biggest market. Now,
3:19
Speaker 1: the United States has the biggest consumption market in the world, China,
3:24
Speaker 1: we are the biggest market for them in terms of
3:26
Speaker 1: their goods and services.
3:28
Speaker 2: And I think this is.
3:28
Speaker 1: Going to play into a lot of the questions that
3:30
Speaker 1: everybody's asking is who will win the trade war. China
3:34
Speaker 1: says it's going to fight to the end, though after
3:36
Speaker 1: Trump threatens a fifty percent higher tariff, this will get
3:40
Speaker 1: dicey because it will at some point start to affect
3:43
Speaker 1: the Chinese economy, both on production and being able to
3:47
Speaker 1: offset and resell that pipeline to maybe other parts of
3:51
Speaker 1: the world if it's even possible, because consumption will be
3:55
Speaker 1: a factor unless they're doing discounted goods. So a lot
4:00
Speaker 1: definitely on the line right here. China, just in the US,
4:03
Speaker 1: isn't serious about trade talks, and they're talking about intimidation, threats, etc.
4:07
Speaker 1: But I think this is really just negotiation tactics that
4:10
Speaker 1: both these leaders are implementing in their way. Just like
4:13
Speaker 1: we saw with the tariffs going early, it's putting a
4:17
Speaker 1: lot of pressure on China. I think it might force
4:19
Speaker 1: their hand to get something done quicker. China knows Trump
4:22
Speaker 1: wants to lower interest rates, so he's dumping massive amount
4:26
Speaker 1: of US treasuries to push interest higher. This will most
4:29
Speaker 1: likely cause a quick reaction with FED in terms of printing.
4:33
Speaker 1: That also will, I think, move in an accelerated pace
4:37
Speaker 1: to how we'll see stable coins play into this market
4:41
Speaker 1: going forward, because this is a very intriguing time in crypto,
4:45
Speaker 1: especially if you look back of where flight to safety
4:48
Speaker 1: is and how many of these yields are being paid.
4:51
Speaker 1: This would be kind of an interesting situation to kind
4:54
Speaker 1: of play into. So something keep an eye on which
4:57
Speaker 1: countries are holding the most debt. If you look right now,
5:00
Speaker 1: Japan and China have the most foreign debt in terms
5:04
Speaker 1: of US debt. And again I think, and this is
5:05
Speaker 1: in the last two decades, that I think it'll play
5:08
Speaker 1: negative for the dollar because the dollar, I think that
5:11
Speaker 1: will devalue quickly. It will play positive for risk markets
5:14
Speaker 1: and positive for things like lower interest rates for businesses,
5:18
Speaker 1: which we'll energize in the economy those kind of things. However,
5:22
Speaker 1: inflation could be the problem, and that is a concern now.
5:26
Speaker 1: The timing is very critical here because if it would
5:28
Speaker 1: have to stick around for inflation to really show up,
5:32
Speaker 1: much like what China has been faced with with rising
5:35
Speaker 1: inflation and just their GDP on where this is going,
5:38
Speaker 1: all right, justin right here, China says they're going to
5:40
Speaker 1: ban the import of US films, even though this is
5:42
Speaker 1: something that's been around for a long time. Almost none
5:45
Speaker 1: of the creative material coming out of the US makes
5:47
Speaker 1: it into China. No real films make it in there
5:50
Speaker 1: unless it's controlled. And of course, you know, our social
5:53
Speaker 1: media products are not in there. And I think this
5:55
Speaker 1: is a factor that many people forget, is that China
5:59
Speaker 1: has already it's not even a tariff, it's just a
6:02
Speaker 1: peer out ban versus what we allow here in the
6:05
Speaker 1: United States. This is the first time, I think, in
6:07
Speaker 1: the US, when you look at the TikTok situation, that
6:09
Speaker 1: we've seen an actual ban going into a Chinese operation.
6:13
Speaker 1: Let me go to this first clip because this is
6:15
Speaker 1: the Treasury Secretary talking about the escalation.
6:19
Speaker 3: Take a look, President Trump has maximum negotiating leverage right
6:24
Speaker 3: here right now, and I think it would be a
6:27
Speaker 3: mistake for anyone to think otherwise. And many of as
6:36
Speaker 3: I said, many of our trading partners, they have queued
6:40
Speaker 3: up and they have kept their cool, they have not escalated,
6:45
Speaker 3: and they will get priority in the queue. I think
6:50
Speaker 3: it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're
6:54
Speaker 3: playing with a pair of twos. Traditionally, if you look,
6:58
Speaker 3: if you look at the history of the trade negotiations,
7:04
Speaker 3: we are the deficit country. So what do we lose
7:09
Speaker 3: by the Chinese raising terrorists on us? We export one
7:15
Speaker 3: fifth to them of what they export to us. So
7:19
Speaker 3: that is a losing hand for them.
7:22
Speaker 2: All right.
7:22
Speaker 1: So as you can see Besson very cautious there on
7:25
Speaker 1: his statements, this is a very sensitive negotiation that's happening
7:28
Speaker 1: right now. And if you look at strategies, and that's
7:31
Speaker 1: one thing you have to look at, I mean, Scott Beston.
7:33
Speaker 1: You have to remember this is a hedge fund guy
7:35
Speaker 1: that's running the treasury, and when you look at that
7:39
Speaker 1: in comparison to where he has been in the past,
7:42
Speaker 1: this is a good example Beson's connection to George Soros.
7:46
Speaker 1: And remember this right here, let me kind of zoom
7:48
Speaker 1: in on this for you guys. He played a very
7:50
Speaker 1: pitiful role in Black Wednesday. This was the trade of
7:53
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two when Soros broke the Bank of England.
7:56
Speaker 1: This is pretty much what puts Soros on the map.
7:59
Speaker 2: And I think.
8:00
Speaker 1: I think that is a factor that Besson is playing in.
8:03
Speaker 1: He understands international markets, he understands money on a global scale.
8:07
Speaker 1: This is a big deal.
8:08
Speaker 4: Now.
8:08
Speaker 1: Ray Dalio, also a grand investor, has maybe a different angle,
8:14
Speaker 1: but he agrees with some certain elements of this.
8:17
Speaker 2: Take a look.
8:18
Speaker 1: If the president is watching you right now, Scott Beson
8:20
Speaker 1: is watching you right now, You're telling him what he's
8:23
Speaker 1: a good idea you're telling him about.
8:26
Speaker 4: What do you say, I agree with the problem, Okay,
8:32
Speaker 4: I am very concerned about the solution. Okay, the practicality
8:38
Speaker 4: of the solution. In other words, I think that this
8:42
Speaker 4: is going to create not only the problem the capital
8:46
Speaker 4: markets problem that I'm talking about cross going up, prices,
8:50
Speaker 4: revenue going down, and capital problem, but I also think
8:54
Speaker 4: that this is going to create great sand in the
8:58
Speaker 4: gears of production and worldwide. It is coming also at
9:02
Speaker 4: the same time as we have a budget issue. Now,
9:05
Speaker 4: the budget issue is a comparably important issue. So as
9:11
Speaker 4: we look ahead in the months ahead, we have to
9:14
Speaker 4: get the budget deficit down to three percent of GDP.
9:18
Speaker 4: I worry about that at the same time as this
9:21
Speaker 4: is happening. These are not easy problems to solve. I'm concerned, all.
9:27
Speaker 2: Right, so you can see.
9:28
Speaker 1: I mean his situation is trying to understand this from
9:31
Speaker 1: an economic standpoint, and I think that is a concern
9:34
Speaker 1: right now. But I think the key here, again I
9:37
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier in the show, is that timing.
9:39
Speaker 2: Is really a big part of this.
9:41
Speaker 1: So that's another factor you have to play into this now,
9:44
Speaker 1: Glenn Deeson, he says, hey, there's there also.
9:46
Speaker 2: Are some other issues here.
9:48
Speaker 1: There is a key weakness in Trump's economic war concept
9:51
Speaker 1: with China. China can diverse fay from away from the US,
9:54
Speaker 1: while the US cannot diverse FA away from China.
9:57
Speaker 2: I'm not totally sold on that.
9:59
Speaker 1: Because the US is the largest retail market in the world.
10:04
Speaker 1: China is the largest retail sailer. And when you look
10:08
Speaker 1: at the trade balance difference on one fifth, that five
10:13
Speaker 1: times that coming into the US. Where else would they
10:16
Speaker 1: fill a five x of the United States population? I
10:21
Speaker 1: just don't know that that would be the case. Here,
10:22
Speaker 1: of course, is what we have on breaking updates the
10:26
Speaker 1: China tariffs. Of course, but Europe says it's ready to
10:28
Speaker 1: negotiate and they're talking about a zero for zero deal.
10:33
Speaker 1: This would be amazing. My guess though, is that Trump
10:37
Speaker 1: might try to squeeze a little bit more out of
10:40
Speaker 1: even a zero for zero deal. So be looking for
10:42
Speaker 1: that America's new tariff right now hurting developing countries. This
10:46
Speaker 1: is going to be a casualty, unfortunately, because it will
10:52
Speaker 1: help or hurt a lot of these early stage nations.
10:55
Speaker 1: This is really more about the G seven and where
10:57
Speaker 1: a lot of the consumption is being done in the lobe.
11:00
Speaker 1: And I think right now China and the US and
11:04
Speaker 1: the EU to a certain extent, are on front burner.
11:07
Speaker 1: Let me go to another clip because this is getting
11:09
Speaker 1: into where does the markets go? Because everybody's asking what
11:12
Speaker 1: happens to bitcoin? Paul, We'll talk about that in a second.
11:15
Speaker 1: I'll go to the charts at the end. But here's
11:17
Speaker 1: Tom Leae.
11:18
Speaker 5: Take a look a new note to investors, fun Strat
11:21
Speaker 5: head of research, Tom Lee saying, we want to apologize
11:24
Speaker 5: as the terms of the Tariff Liberation Day were far
11:27
Speaker 5: worse than we expected. But with that in mind, you
11:30
Speaker 5: still think we're starting to see signs of a Trump put.
11:34
Speaker 6: As you know, it's almost like the stock market and
11:37
Speaker 6: economy was delivered a heart attack from the terms of
11:40
Speaker 6: those tariffs. So I think that there is a bounce underway.
11:45
Speaker 2: You know.
11:46
Speaker 6: One of the things, you know, we've spent a lot
11:48
Speaker 6: of time talking to investors between Wednesday, Liberation Day and
11:52
Speaker 6: over the weekend, and you know, it's clear to us
11:55
Speaker 6: investors feel that not only are these TARFF levels absurd
12:00
Speaker 6: in the sense that it was very difficult for people
12:03
Speaker 6: to understand the calculation, but it really did break a
12:07
Speaker 6: covenant with capitalism, you know, the idea that businesses need
12:11
Speaker 6: stable and predictable regulations. It doesn't mean that we can't
12:16
Speaker 6: see a level of clarity that helps restore that trust.
12:19
Speaker 6: And so markets after this waterfall decline. You know, one
12:23
Speaker 6: scenario is a V shaped bounce that takes us back
12:26
Speaker 6: to the previous levels.
12:28
Speaker 2: But but you know.
12:29
Speaker 6: The reality is it's gonna you know, I don't know
12:31
Speaker 6: what that sort of clarity that's required for that is.
12:34
Speaker 6: So I think it's it does feel like this will
12:37
Speaker 6: take some time.
12:37
Speaker 1: And now with all that, you again back to negotiations
12:42
Speaker 1: here of courses, the Italian's Prime Minister Malonia is now
12:46
Speaker 1: set to negotiate terroiffs with Trump. That'll probably be an
12:48
Speaker 1: easy win, I think in terms of what Italy is
12:52
Speaker 1: doing Also, remember Blackrock was kind of back and forth.
12:55
Speaker 1: This was a statement order in the day by watching Guru,
12:58
Speaker 1: Blackrock says it's optimistic about stock long term and believes
13:01
Speaker 1: AI can help the US reclaim global leadership. Now that
13:04
Speaker 1: is a big factor going forward because they also stated
13:08
Speaker 1: that they were running away from Stock. So I think Blackrock,
13:11
Speaker 1: even in themselves, have started to backtrack a lot of
13:14
Speaker 1: their economic outlook. Now let's get into the rest of Asia,
13:18
Speaker 1: because this is where it gets kind of interesting because Japan,
13:21
Speaker 1: of course is a big one in terms of a
13:24
Speaker 1: trading partner. South Korea talks about this right here. Tremendous
13:28
Speaker 1: and unsustainable surplus tariffs, ship building, large scale repurchase of
13:32
Speaker 1: US L and G. All of this is going on
13:34
Speaker 1: right now. In terms of negotiation. They also have a
13:39
Speaker 1: joint venture in Alaska. This is a pipeline, so they're
13:43
Speaker 1: going to get military protection. They're doing deals that are
13:46
Speaker 1: outside the tariffs right now, so we have both confines
13:49
Speaker 1: of probability of a good deal for both countries is
13:52
Speaker 1: stated by Trump, and then also the trade tariffs and
13:56
Speaker 1: also getting them negotiated is kind of a one stop
13:58
Speaker 1: shopping thing. That is the interesting byproduct of what these
14:02
Speaker 1: tariffs may bring. In other words, it brings people to
14:05
Speaker 1: the negotiating table and they kind of say, well, what
14:07
Speaker 1: else can we do with each other?
14:10
Speaker 2: That is a huge step in the right direction.
14:13
Speaker 1: So I'm looking for some opportunities there, especially as these
14:16
Speaker 1: countries start negotiating. Here, of course is Japan. Trump says
14:20
Speaker 1: he spoke with the Japanese Prime minister this morning. He
14:23
Speaker 1: is sending a top team to negotiate, so everybody's coming
14:27
Speaker 1: in and talking. They understand that the US has been
14:31
Speaker 1: on the opposite side of the trade war for over
14:36
Speaker 1: three decades and now things are about to change. So
14:39
Speaker 1: we'll see if this can be held. That Yahoo also
14:42
Speaker 1: announced in the Oval Office that Israel will become a
14:45
Speaker 1: complete freeze trade zone. But this in addition to zeroing
14:50
Speaker 1: out tariffs on the country. They also looked at Trump
14:53
Speaker 1: and Trump was still kind of reaching in and saying, hey,
14:57
Speaker 1: that's not enough. We think there should be more. We've
15:00
Speaker 1: put a lot of money into Israel, supporting it militarily
15:04
Speaker 1: and supporting the economies there. That I think is going
15:07
Speaker 1: to be another swipe at the apple that Trump is.
15:10
Speaker 2: Going to go for with that. Yahoo.
15:12
Speaker 1: And of course this is again These are the kind
15:14
Speaker 1: of strategies I think that we'll have to play out
15:17
Speaker 1: for this to work.
15:18
Speaker 2: Trump also will meet with House.
15:20
Speaker 1: Republicans today at one o'clock, and this is where it
15:23
Speaker 1: will get interesting. Either it will be kind of a
15:26
Speaker 1: come to Jesus talk with them saying, guys, you got
15:29
Speaker 1: to get behind me, or it could be a situation
15:33
Speaker 1: where Congress steps up and says there's too much pain
15:36
Speaker 1: in the market.
15:37
Speaker 2: You know.
15:37
Speaker 1: Now, Trump has been on record here saying that he's
15:39
Speaker 1: not going to let Wall Street dictate the economy for
15:42
Speaker 1: the United States and that the you know, kind of
15:44
Speaker 1: the effort of what we're doing is much greater. But
15:47
Speaker 1: when you look at the markets right now, Bitcoin of
15:49
Speaker 1: course dropping like crazy today after and remember I'm.
15:54
Speaker 2: On the weekly.
15:54
Speaker 1: Let me go to the daily here, so you guys
15:56
Speaker 1: can kind of see the move that has been happening.
16:00
Speaker 1: We saw that start to occur around the eighty three
16:03
Speaker 1: K mark, which was when we started to see a
16:05
Speaker 1: little bit of movement down negative sentiment metrics. Right now,
16:09
Speaker 1: but almost three days of red coming in on bitcoin
16:12
Speaker 1: and the price of seventy two k, I think is
16:16
Speaker 1: in play for bitcoins. Let me know, down in the comments.
16:19
Speaker 1: Is this something that you're just going to say, Nope,
16:21
Speaker 1: I'm not going anywhere. I'm holding through on digital assets,
16:24
Speaker 1: I'm sliding out of securities. I'm looking at possibly money
16:28
Speaker 1: markets and stable coins and just going after short yields.
16:32
Speaker 2: Let me know what you guys think.
16:33
Speaker 1: Make sure and be part of the Diamond circle in
16:35
Speaker 1: times like this, this is the best thing to do.
16:37
Speaker 1: Get in on our email list, and if you want
16:39
Speaker 1: to talk to me direct, you can do that right
16:41
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16:44
Speaker 1: down below. Check it out, follow me on X that
16:46
Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
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Speaker 1: Techpath