Latest / Closing Market Report / Mar 31 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260331 Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 31st day of March 2026. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. It's USDA report day. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm at totalfarmmarketing.com. She'll help us detail both the Prospective Plantings report as well as the Grain Stocks figures that were released by the United States Department of Agriculture at 11:00 AM Central Time this morning. We'll hear from the University of Missouri's Jason Franken. He analyzes the latest Hogs and Pigs report figures. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast as we close out our time together. Don Day will be here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on-demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. This morning, the United States Department of Agriculture released both the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report. The latter is the first official survey-based estimate of U.S. farmers' 2026 planting intentions for the year. NASS acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March, by the way. The sample size was nearly 74,000 farm operations across the whole of the nation. It found that producers surveyed in the United States intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026. That's down 3% from last year. Planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of 48 states. Acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from last year are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin for corn. If realized, the area for corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record. While Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record. Soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026. That's up 4% from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected for soybeans in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Now here's how the markets reacted and closed. Corn futures settled at $4.57 and three-quarters, up two cents in the May. July, three-quarters higher at $4.68 and a quarter. December, a quarter higher at $4.84 and a quarter. May beans, 11 and a quarter higher at $11.71. And November at $11.57 and a half. It finished 13 and a half higher. July, up 11 cents at $11.86. 03:01 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin, now joins us to talk about how the market reacted to the USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks figures. First, which of the two do you think moved the market more thoroughly? Naomi Blohm: I think actually this time it was the acreage report. I was curious, of course, to see on the quarterly stock side of things where things were going to fall into place. We were looking for corn to have maybe a slightly smaller quarterly stock number, just thinking of how hot and heavy our export market has been. So we were able to get that today with the quarterly stocks number coming in at 9.02, below the average estimate, but within the range of expectations. So not too much excitement there. And on the quarterly stock side for the beans coming in at 2.10, just a little bit higher than the average estimate. So then with nothing dramatic there in reference to demand, looking at the acreage report, there wasn't a lot of excitement there either. And I was just thinking to myself, boy, it's been a long time since a March 31st report didn't transpire in some dramatic pricing event or big technical signals on the charts. So like on the corn side of things, the corn acres coming in at 95.3. Yes, that was a million more than trade was expecting as far as the average estimate, but well within the range of estimates. And for the soybean number coming in at 84.7, below the average estimate of 85.5. That was supportive for the beans, but nothing on this report today screamed overly bullish or overly bearish. And I think that's why you saw the corn market just kind of stay put. Prices closing today a quarter cent to two cents higher. That market is still range bound, doesn't have a fundamental reason to get over that $5 handle yet. And on the soybean side, we did finish with gains, 11 cents, but again, still off the highs from just a few weeks ago and not a lot of fresh news. Todd Gleason: Given that, are you still of a mind that for old crop, if producers have it yet to sell, that they need to continue to market it? Naomi Blohm: I do feel that way. Just because if there was anything exciting that was going to come on this report, it would have happened, and we just did not get that. So we don't have a fundamental reason at this moment for corn prices to go racing higher. Now it's going to have to come from something weather-related or war-related in order to get the corn price to rally anytime in the short term. Doesn't mean something can't happen later in the summer, but now you have to ask yourself, how much does the market have to rally to justify holding and storing that corn for another two to three months? So that's the situation that we're looking at. Todd Gleason: Okay, now look forward into the new crop, what are you thinking today? Naomi Blohm: I'm still thinking that December corn is on the struggle bus to get above $5 futures. And in my opinion, it still is that we're not going to see December corn get over $5 unless there's got to be like three things that happen. We have to have crude oil rally and retest that $120 area. We need to have some bad, bad weather occur on the second crop safrinha corn. It's not perfect down there, but we're not hearing major issues at the moment. And then we will need to have a weather issue here in the United States. The one thing I'm a little cautious of, the funds last week had gotten to the point where they were clawing their way higher as far as almost long 300,000 contracts of corn. And when they wanted to, if they wanted to go longer corn they could, they could become almost 400,000 contracts long. But they need a fundamental incentive to get them there as well. And we saw them backpedaling late last week and early this week with some selling. So we just don't have that big movement to get corn prices higher for right now. So my tone is still a little bit cautious, keeping an eye very much so on outside market influences, watching fund money control, watching the war, all those types of things. There could be those little outside market influences that make the market go higher, but for right now, we are just stuck. We didn't get anything big and dramatic out of this report today. So I'm wondering if we just see some now kind of quiet and cautious trade until we start to see the planters roll. Todd Gleason: One of the things that happened last week was the Friday Ag event, U.S. EPA announcing the RVOs or renewable volume obligations. And that appeared to be really quite good for soybeans. I was listening to the webinar that the farm doc team did late this afternoon, should be on our website at willag.org once Jim Boltz has that moved to YouTube and I can put it there, probably after 4:00 today. However, Scott Irwin, who's probably the foremost expert in this area, one of them in the nation, did suggest that we will be pushing capacity, crush capacity to near 100% sometime in the second quarter. That's a move higher. But crush has just been unbelievably good for soybeans all this marketing year. I'm wondering whether that makes much of a difference for the price of soybeans and or where the funds have positioned themselves and what they might do going forward. Naomi Blohm: Yeah, and I love everything that you said. It's so true as far as demand for the biofuels and I hadn't heard that we were getting close to capacity, but that makes a lot of sense to me with all of the new plants that we had built over the past couple of years and the expansion that's been there. So that crush number and that strong crush demand has been keeping this market propelled higher because we have lost demand on the export side. So I think for now, a lot of that is priced into the market and the funds clawed onto that and that's a part of the reason why the funds are long in the soybean space, including the soybean meal and the bean oil, near record long or record long in the soybean market. So for them, I'm not sure how much more room there is for them to continue to buy. I'm not sure how long they're going to continue to defend their long position or what makes them say, okay, time to give up and walk away and take a profit. That might be something that isn't totally tied to the marketplace until we get into our planting season and have a better understanding of where our production is going to be when all is said and done. Along with hope still that the United States and China are going to get along and maybe we can get some more export demand there. So it's propelled the market higher. I think it's priced into the soybean market. I think it's known news, but I don't think that at this time we have a reason for the bean market to get above $12, especially on that November contract. We finished today 11.57 and a half. $12 is just going to be a huge hurdle for soybeans just like $5 is going to be a huge hurdle for corn. Todd Gleason: On that note, thank you, Naomi. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Blohm, she is with totalfarmmarketing.com. 10:32 WILLAg News Update Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, the Environmental Protection Agency released the long-awaited final renewable fuel standard volume obligations for 2026 and 2027. And U.S. ag groups responded positively. The final rule locks in the highest-ever renewable fuel volume obligations and provides clarity for farmers, ethanol producers, oil refiners, and fuel distributors alike, says Jeff Cooper of the Renewable Fuels Association. Jed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association, said the announcement, combined with the summertime E15 waiver from last week, is a positive move for the nation's corn growers who are navigating an exceptionally difficult environment. And Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, says these increased targets for biodiesel and renewable diesel send a strong signal to the marketplace and create meaningful new demand for America's family farmers and ranchers. And finally, Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association, thinks it's a needed win and this announcement delivers a big win for farmers. The ag retailers association is welcoming the Environmental Protection Agency's action to address diesel exhaust fluid system failures, or DEF. The ARA called it a timely step to support farmers and agricultural retailers as spring planting gets underway. DEF systems malfunctions have caused costly equipment downtime and operational disruptions across agriculture. The EPA's action to remove the problematic sensor requirement will help keep equipment running and reduce unnecessary delays in the field. America's agricultural retailers and growers continue to face high fuel costs and tight margins, says the president at ARA, CEO Daren Coppock. This common-sense relief will help them to stay productive and profitable at a critical time of the year. ARA also emphasized that the timing of the announcement is especially important as farmers prepare for and begin spring planting. ARA's board of directors recently ratified this issue as a policy priority for 2026. Recent developments in digital technology and AI are streamlining loan underwriting and reducing costs for farmers. Mike Davis reports. Mike Davis: Blaine Nelson, chief economist with Farmer Mac, says this is just the beginning. Blaine Nelson: I think a lot about it through the lender's lens, just this need for a more efficient, a faster, a smoother process in working with farmers. We're probably in the early stages of it. We've seen a lot of advancements made in the past several years, but when you think about the increased adoption of AI, I know that's a buzzword right now, but it's certainly going to accelerate some of these processes. Again, speaking purely to the lender side, just in how they actually underwrite a loan and work with a borrower on a loan. Mike Davis: Nelson says the advancing technology has also made getting a farm loan faster. Blaine Nelson: We're talking about shorter times from actual loan application to submission for a farmer. You're talking about more transparency in terms of what actually matters on a loan application. You're also talking about reduced costs in a number of instances, whether it be for the appraisal process or just the actual man hours required to underwrite a loan. If that helps bring costs down for the farmers and it makes it a more efficient, smooth process, I think it's a win-win for both. Mike Davis: Putting it in historical perspective, Nelson says Farmer Mac works behind the scenes to give farmers more and better choices. Blaine Nelson: Farmer Mac was spun up in the 1980s, really post-farm crisis, to kind of help solve some of that liquidity issue that comes along with certain types of loans. So we like to think that we give options to lenders to offer farmers better rates. It's not always true, but that certainly at times is. And really, I think just anytime that a farmer has a greater selection in terms of loan products, which we help banks offer or other lenders offer, again, it's the farmer that wins in that process. Mike Davis: I'm Mike Davis. Todd Gleason: And I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Tuesday afternoon. Do find us online at willag.org. There you will find right now today a list of the states and changes in the corn belt for both corn and soybean production acreage. You'll also find, eventually, the farm doc webinar hosted during the one o'clock hour today for you to watch as a YouTube video as it relates to the Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks figures. Again, that's all at willag.org. 15:29 USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report Analysis Todd Gleason: Here's a quick item on the March Hogs and Pigs report. It places the March 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 74.3 million head. That figure is down one and a half percent from the first quarter but up nearly half a percent from a year ago. The breeding herd dropped to 5.89 million head, its lowest March level since 2014. Despite fewer sows farrowing, the winter pig crop saw a slight increase driven by a record 11.9 pigs per litter. University of Missouri agricultural economist Jason Franken anticipates this efficiency will persist. Jason Franken: Continued productivity should be expected given historical trends and biological feasibility as indicated by pigs per litter in other countries. Todd Gleason: Looking at the broader market, cold stocks of pork are down 5% year over year. However, US per capita pork consumption is forecast to rise to 50.3 pounds per person in 2026. And exports are projected to reach 7.2 billion pounds, a 3.1% increase over last year. When examining profitability, the first quarter saw a hog-to-corn price ratio averaging about 19. And while a ratio of 20 typically signals herd expansion, Franken notes that producers are still recovering from past deficits. Jason Franken: With such rates of profitability following the losses producers incurred in 2023, a prolonged path to sufficient financial recovery to spur herd expansion is to be expected. Instead of expanding, Franken says the industry currently appears fairly adept at managing pork supply by balancing farrowings with anticipated increases in productivity in terms of pigs per litter. Todd Gleason: Price forecasts indicate a rise from a first quarter average of $85.33 per hundredweight for hogs to $102.41 by the third quarter. That'll dip back towards the end of the year. Ultimately, Franken concludes that as a whole, the outlook for the pork industry remains positive, although he cautions ongoing geopolitical and trade disruptions could still pressure export demand and drive up feed and fertilizer costs. 18:04 Honoring WWII Flying ACE "Bud" Anderson Todd Gleason: Early this morning, I took time to watch the full Pentagon briefing on the war in Iran just to make sure that there was nothing new there related to agriculture. I didn't really see or hear anything that changed it fundamentally for agriculture. However, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, as he's prone to do, made some comments that I thought were worth listening to. This time around, it was about a World War II ace. General Dan Caine: This morning I want to share that yesterday the joint force had the honor of participating in the burial of Colonel Clarence Emil Bud Anderson, who passed away in May of 2024 at the ripe old age of 102. He was laid to rest in Arlington Cemetery yesterday morning alongside his wife of 70 years, Eleanor, who he married on February 23rd, 1945. She passed away in 2015 at the age of 92. Bud, yesterday, a legend to our Air Force and fighter pilots everywhere, was honored with a combination flyby of F-35s and a four-ship of P-51 Mustangs. He was one of the most prolific flying aces of World War II and the highest-scoring ace in his squadron and in his group. And he served from 1942 to 1972. And his last combat tour was flying F-104 Thunderchiefs over North Vietnam. For anyone that had the chance to meet Colonel Anderson, you knew what an incredibly special man he was. And that's true for each and every one of our World War II vets who become fewer and fewer with each passing day. They are the greatest generation and give us the gift of an incredible example as we execute Operation Epic Fury today. And Colonel Anderson, we mourn for your loss and remember that smile on the right side as you went out to do our nation's business. Todd Gleason: General Dan Caine is the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and was speaking during this morning's pentagon briefing on the war in Iran. Thank you very much for taking a moment to indulge me. My father served in World War II and my grandfather served in World War I. I will take a moment now to pass on this note. I had the privilege of accompanying my father on an honor flight for World War II vets. There were Vietnam vets along as well. If there is someone in your life who served, I urge you to accompany them to Washington D.C. on an honor flight to thank them. 20:52 Ag Weather with Don Day Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Don, tell me about the weather we have upcoming. Don Day: There's a little bit of everything in the forecast as we head out of March and into April. The first days of April look to be quite wet. We're going to see a system come out of the plain states producing showers and thunderstorms in the next several days across a lot of the Midwest and the Corn Belt. Some of the very dry areas of the western Corn Belt and central Corn Belt could see some really good rainfall. Rainfall amounts could be one to three inches or more by early next week across a lot of the Corn Belt, including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, down into Missouri and Arkansas, the very dry areas of eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and east and central Texas will do well. On the north end of this pattern, it's going to be wintery weather. We could see heavy spring snows across portions of the Dakotas, northern Wisconsin, and Minnesota into the upper peninsula of Michigan. And we're also going to see some very beneficial moisture in the very dry areas of the west from the Pacific Northwest and central and northern California to the central and northern Rockies where some beneficial spring snows will hit the higher elevations there. So April's starting off with a bang, although there's still going to be some areas that miss out, still very dry in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and winter wheat country there. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Don. We'll check in with you again next week to see how things have changed in the growing areas across the Midwest and around the planet. You've been listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Tuesday afternoon. Do check out our website at willag.org. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason.