Latest / Restaurant Business with Fexingo: Food Service, Hospitality, and Independent Operators / How Restaurant Menu Calorie Labels Change Order Behavior
Transcript
- Lucas: If you walk into any chain restaurant in America today and look at the menu, you'll see the calorie count printed right next to the price. That wasn't always the case. Luna: Yeah, it's been about eight years since the FDA mandate went into effect. But here's the question — does seeing that number actually change what people order? Lucas: That's exactly what we're digging into today. A 2024 study from Cornell tracked roughly 50 million orders across four thousand restaurant locations over several years, and the findings are a lot more nuanced than you'd expect. Luna: Nuanced how? I mean, conventional wisdom says showing calories makes people choose lower-calorie items. But I suspect it's not that simple. Lucas: You're right. The headline result: calorie labels led to a three percent reduction in average calories per order. That's modest but real. Lucas: But here's the twist — the study also found that per-head revenue actually went up by about one percent. So customers weren't necessarily ordering less food, they were just shifting what they ordered. Luna: That's a fascinating split. So the labels are nudging people toward different choices, but not smaller checks. Lucas: And look, this is the kind of thing that keeps our show going — we get to pull back the curtain on how these real-world dynamics work. Quick honest thing: a handful of listeners chip in monthly through buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo, and that's literally what funds us making this many of these episodes. If these conversations have moved your work forward in some small way, that's the place. Luna: Yeah. No pressure ever. It's just what keeps it ad-free and independent. Lucas: So back to those shifting choices. The Cornell data showed that customers migrated toward items with lower calorie counts, but not proportionally. The biggest drops were in appetizers and desserts — those categories saw a four to five percent reduction in orders. Luna: Makes sense. Those are the 'discretionary' parts of a meal. You're less likely to splurge on a fried appetizer if the menu tells you it costs 800 calories. Lucas: Exactly. But entrée orders stayed flat. And beverages? Actually saw a small increase. Which is counterintuitive because sodas and sugary drinks are calorie-dense. Luna: Maybe people figure they're saving calories elsewhere, so they 'allow' themselves a Coke with dinner. Lucas: That's exactly what the researchers theorize. It's a licensing effect — you cut 200 calories from the starter, so you feel okay ordering a regular soda instead of diet. Lucas: But the really interesting part is what happened to revenue. Even as calories dropped, the average check went up. Why? Because customers traded down on calories, not on price. Luna: So they're choosing the grilled chicken sandwich instead of the fried one. The grilled version might cost the same or even more, but it has half the calories. Lucas: Right. And restaurants, in many cases, have higher margins on those grilled items because the ingredients are cheaper. Chicken breast versus breading and oil — the food cost is actually lower. Luna: So calorie labels, counterintuitively, might be good for profit? That's not the narrative you usually hear. Lucas: It depends on the concept. For a fast-food chain selling value meals, where the profit is in the fries and the soda, shifting customers away from those items could hurt margin. Lucas: But for a casual dining chain like Cheesecake Factory, which has a massive menu with a huge range of calorie counts, the labels actually help steer people toward higher-margin items like pasta or grilled fish. Luna: Cheesecake Factory is a perfect case. Their menu is famously enormous — over 250 items. Before the mandate, they actually fought it in court, arguing that printing calories would be misleading because of customization. Lucas: They lost that fight, obviously. And now, if you look at their menu, you'll see calorie counts ranging from about 600 for a skinnylicious item to over 2,000 for some of their pasta dishes. The data shows that after labeling, sales of their lower-calorie 'SkinnyLicious' items grew significantly. Luna: But here's my question — does this effect persist over time? Or do people habituate and eventually ignore the numbers? Lucas: That's the million-dollar question. The Cornell study covered multiple years, and they did see a slight decay. The first year showed a five percent reduction in calories, which settled to three percent by year three. Lucas: So the effect is real but it weakens. And that makes sense — after a while, regular customers already know that the Caesar salad is 550 calories and the crispy chicken sandwich is 700. They don't need to read it. Luna: What about the operators who deliberately downplay the labels? I've been to places where the calorie numbers are printed in tiny gray font, almost invisibly. Lucas: That's a known tactic. The FDA requires the numbers to be 'clear and conspicuous,' but there's wiggle room. Some chains put them on a separate page or in a small footnote. Starbucks, for example, initially put calorie counts on a poster near the register, not on the menu board. Lucas: But research shows that placement matters enormously. If the number is right next to the item name, it gets about ten times more visual attention than if it's at the bottom of the menu. And that attention correlates directly with behavior change. Luna: So the restaurateur has a choice: they can embrace the labels and potentially shift their mix toward healthier, higher-margin items, or they can hide them and hope customers don't notice. Lucas: Exactly. And the smart ones are using it as a menu engineering tool. They're reformulating recipes to bring calorie counts below certain thresholds. The Cheesecake Factory, for instance, now has over 60 items under 590 calories. Lucas: They realized that a customer who sees a 590-calorie pasta and a 1,200-calorie pasta might pick the former, and the food cost on that lighter pasta is actually lower. Luna: So it's a win-win for them — lower food cost, higher customer satisfaction, and they get to market the 'SkinnyLicious' brand. Lucas: Right. Now, the counterargument is that calorie labels disproportionately affect certain demographics. The studies show that women and higher-income diners are more responsive to the numbers than men or lower-income diners. Luna: That creates a kind of health equity issue. If the people who need the information most are the least likely to use it, the policy might not be achieving its public health goal. Lucas: It's a fair critique. And some studies show that calorie labels can actually backfire. A 2020 paper found that when a fast-food restaurant added calorie counts, orders of high-calorie items increased among male teenagers — almost a rebellious effect. Luna: Interesting. So there's a behavioral nuance that goes beyond simple information provision. Lucas: Yeah. Which brings us back to the operator perspective. If you're running a restaurant, you can't control how every customer will react. But you can design your menu to work with the labels, not against them. Lucas: One tactic is to put the calorie count on the right side of the item name, with the price. Studies show that left-to-right reading patterns mean the number gets more attention if it's on the right. Luna: And format matters too. Some chains use color coding — green for under 400, yellow for 400-800, red for over 800. Does that help? Lucas: It does. Panera Bread uses a traffic light system, and their internal data showed a measurable shift toward green items. But the FDA doesn't require color coding, so most chains don't do it. Lucas: I think the takeaway here is that calorie labels are not a magic bullet, but they're a meaningful lever. For the average chain restaurant, they reduce calories ordered by about three percent and increase revenue by about one percent. Luna: Which, across thousands of locations, adds up to real money and real health impact. But it's not a policy that changes the world overnight. Lucas: No. And the fact that the effect decays suggests that restaurants need to keep innovating — rotating menu items, updating labels, using seasonal specials to re-engage the calorie-conscious customer. Luna: It's an ongoing conversation between the operator and the diner, mediated by a little number on the menu. Lucas: Exactly. And that number, imperfect as it is, is giving us data on how people actually make choices — which is the kind of thing that makes this industry so interesting to cover.