Latest / Sid & Friends In The Morning / Alex Traiman | CEO of Jewish News Syndicate Offers Update on Deadlocked Israel National Election After Polls Close

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Alex Traiman | CEO of Jewish News Syndicate Offers Update on Deadlocked Israel National Election After Polls Close · Sid & Friends In The Morning

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well, a lot of us have been up all night long,
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I told you this last hour, messaging people back in
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Israel from Dr. Ophir Falk, happens to be Bibi Netanyahu's
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: senior policy advisor, was on this show yesterday, to Mark Levin,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: to my favorite of all, the... CEO of JNS.org, the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: great Alex Treyman. Now, you know something big is going
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: on in Israel when Treyman, who's now been on this
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: show over 200 times since October 7th of 2023, is
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: now on for the third consecutive day. Alex, must be
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: something big going on in Israel.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Definitely things going on in a big way here. Elections
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: yet again, but the first election after October 7th, And
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: the opposition here was certain that they were going to
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: finally dislodge Israel's indispensable man, the longest serving prime minister,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Benjamin Netanyahu. And what is clear from the early results,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and there are still ballots to be counted, but it
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: is clear that Netanyahu remains the man of the hour
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: and is unlikely to be budged from the prime minister's chair.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: No, that's what Falk told me this morning. And for me,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: that's a victory. Look, I know you need the 61
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: votes to get the clear-cut win. But how I see this,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: and of course I'm not there, so you tell me
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: if I'm wrong. As long as it's not a loss.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: In other words, a win, great. He gets to 61.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: He's not going to get there. He'll be in the mid-50s.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: But a stalemate, which I think is where we are
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: right now, is also a win for Netanyahu. All I
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: heard about the last couple of weeks, including my own daughter,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: was that he was going to lose badly and the
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Israelis hate him and New Yorkers hate him and it's over.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: And correct me if I'm wrong, clearly he outperformed what
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: everybody thought, including Channels 11, 12, and 13. They're lying
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: this morning, I know that. But a stalemate is a win.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Is that not right?
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Well, you're correct that the polls predicted an overwhelming loss
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: for Netanyahu and predicted that the Yashar party led by
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Gadi Eisenkot would be the largest when the counting was done.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: But it is clear now with about a third... Maybe
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: 40% of the votes counted that Netanyahu's Likud party is
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: the largest party by at least five seats. They remain
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: the largest ruling party in the country. Netanyahu's block, the
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: right-wing block of the current coalition, is significantly larger, maybe
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: as many as six to eight seats larger than the
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: opposition block. So while there's not a clear path to
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: 61 and a comfortable ruling majority, it's going to be
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: very difficult today. for the left wing to unseat them.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: And so you have two likely situations right now, which
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: is either some kind of a rotation agreement where members
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: of the opposition that pledged not to sit with Netanyahu
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: concede and agree to sit with Netanyahu at least for
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: the next two years under his leadership, or we will
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: careen into yet another election.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: But another election would keep Netanyahu in power. I mean, look,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I think that Sane people like me, sane people, okay?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And I don't live there, so I know people hate
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: his guts. But as long as President Trump remains in
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: power here for the next two years, we need Bibi
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: to be in power, too, because we've got the common enemy, Iran.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Both of those guys, Trump and Netanyahu, they're out there
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: to make sure that Iran doesn't kill any more Americans
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: than Israelis. So if, in fact, there's another election coming up,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: That means that Netanyahu stays in power and anybody with
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: half a brain should want Netanyahu in power as long
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: as President Trump is in power. Does that sound right?
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Well, it's almost right because Netanyahu would remain in power
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: in a caretaker formula. He would be the prime minister.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: He would have less authority than he would have with
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: a ruling coalition. There are big questions about whether the military...
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: And the military, by and large, does not sit on
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: the same side of the political spectrum as Netanyahu. If
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: they would work together conducively with the prime minister to
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: affect a war against Iran, to conduct war, they might
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: say there's no mandate for a major military action. So
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: it's not so simple. It's not just that Netanyahu gets
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: to continue going on as if nothing happened. in an
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: electoral stalemate. It's not a clear victory. As I said
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: to you before, it's more like a tie, and it
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: becomes complicated. And he will be consumed with electoral politics,
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: trying to get a coalition together, working with President Herzog.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: I think that the much better situation would be for
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: either Gotti-Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett or Viktor Lieberman to do
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: the right thing, understand the importance of this critical moment,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: and agree, at least for a short period of time,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: to sit together with Prime Minister Netanyahu so that he
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: can govern and he can conduct this war as it
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: needs to happen.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: It sounds so weird here because it's almost like, well,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: we need Joe Biden to sit with President Trump. We
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: need Barack Obama to sit with President Trump or Harris.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't happen here because, look, the truth is,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: and if I'm wrong, correct me, But I think the
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: truth is, at least, that Eisencott and Bibi, they've been
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: throwing barbs at each other. It's been a very heated
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: and nasty battle in Israel. So what are the realistic odds,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: realistic odds of these guys sitting down with Bibi when
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: they spent the last months or whatever it is just
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: hammering each other?
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, we had five consecutive elections in Israel
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: between 2022 and 2024. And in the third election, Benny
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: Gantz was running against Benjamin Netanyahu the same way that
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Gadi Aizenkot, who was just number two in Benny Gantz's
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: party in the last Knesset, is running against Netanyahu. And
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: in that third election, when the ballots were counted, all
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: of a sudden you had this global crisis, which was COVID-19.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: And at that time, it was understood that the situation
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: was bigger. than Israeli politics. And Benny Gantz agreed in
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: those circumstances to sit in a rotation agreement and unify
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: the country to deal with COVID-19. And I would imagine
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: that President Trump's strong endorsement and his willingness now to
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: go fly side by side once again to take out
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: the Islamic Republic, an existential threat to Israel if they
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: develop nuclear weapons, is a crisis and an opportunity that
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: supersedes the electoral deadlock And because of the great magnitude
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: of this moment, you would hope that politicians would put
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: their egos aside, even if just temporarily, in order to
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: deal with the Iranian threat once and for all.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: My dear friend, the great CEO of JNS.org, Alex Trayman,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: live in Jerusalem this morning. Yeah, you know, President Trump,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I think, is already taking credit. I think he said, look,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Bibi was about to get killed and I came out
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: with my second endorsement. It looks like now Bibi is
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: going to remain, the prime minister remain in power. So,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: you know, President Trump, you know, his personality, I think
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: he's already taking credit for whatever success Bibi has enjoyed
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the last couple of days.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Well, certainly the strong relationship between President Trump and Prime
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: Minister Netanyahu is one of the greatest aces up Netanyahu's
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: sleeve right now. I don't know that the endorsement, and
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: we don't really have a great way of seeing this scientifically,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: if the endorsement actually boosted Netanyahu in the polls, meaning
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: that people would have voted for Netanyahu's opponents if it
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: hadn't been for him. But as Prime Minister Netanyahu has
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: been keen to do over the years while working with
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: the American president, let Trump take credit for everything he
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: wants to take credit for, because that only keeps Trump
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: closer to Netanyahu and closer to helping Israel achieve the goals.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: things that it needs to achieve, and certainly eliminating the
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Islamic Republic is on the top of the agenda right now.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So again, only about one-third of the vote is in,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: so I guess there is room for some change, but
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: it does look like at the very least, if not
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: a win for Bibi, there's a stalemate, which in essence
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: is a win for Bibi. So why do you think...
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: that the polls and the media and the people in
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the streets had it all wrong. Why do you think
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: that Bibi Netanyahu did outperform when most people thought this
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: was it?
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Well, the polling agencies and the media collude in Israel,
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  Speaker 2: and they have been against Netanyahu for now decades. They
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: just want him out so badly, and they don't use
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: polling as an accurate representation of what people are actually
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: going to do. They use it as a as a
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: projection of what they want people to do. And these
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: polling agencies and the left-wing media, Channels 11, 12, 13,
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  Speaker 2: they have egg on their face this morning. And Prime
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Minister Netanyahu, it's not the situation that he would have wanted.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: He would have wanted to get the same result that
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: he had four years ago with a very clear ruling majority.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: He doesn't have that, but he certainly is not being
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: forced to leave, like Gadi Isinkad and Yair Lapid were
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: saying last night at 10 p.m. when those same polling
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: agencies were showing exit polls stating that the Likud was
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: doing much worse. The actual count this morning indicates that
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: Likud is the largest party by far and the one
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: that should be given the first opportunity to form a government.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: So let's wrap this up in a nice little bow,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: and let me let you get back to doing your
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: amazing work for JNS.org in Jerusalem. It looks like Bibi
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: has outperformed what the experts said was going to happen.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: It looks like Bibi, at the very least, will stay
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: in power. for some time. He did not get the 61,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: but he will end up with the most seats compared
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to the other guys who are out to get him
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: out of there, get him out of there. That is
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: basically what's happened here. Beebe outperforms what people thought. It
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: wasn't as big as it was a couple of years ago,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: but the end of Beebe, the end of Beebe certainly
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: didn't happen last night.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: That's right, and the other big surprise in this election
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: is that the Arab seats, and these are... parties that
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: are against the State of Israel, that support a Palestinian state,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: that some of them even support Hamas. You know, they
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: received 16 seats, at least, in this current government. That's
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: six more than they had, and that really affects the
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: electoral politics. So the fact that you have anti-Zionist Arab
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: parties receiving so many seats out of the 120 is
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: that's really throwing a wrench. If those Arab seats weren't there,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: it would be very clear majority for Netanyahu and his
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: right wing against the Jewish opposition on the left. So
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: it's really a very complicated situation. The left would like
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: to sit with the Arabs, and it means that they
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: actually prefer sitting with the Arabs over sitting with Netanyahu.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: And that is actually a crisis in the Israeli electoral system.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: So something that Israelis are going to have to grapple
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: with as they figure out now who's going to be
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: their next prime minister.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So are you telling me that members of the left,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Eisencad or any one of these guys, you can envision
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: them actually sitting with the Arabs?
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Well, when Naftali Bennett became the prime minister, he sat
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: with Mansour Abbas, the head of the Ram Party.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: They were a.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Small party with four seats. They're not as extreme as
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: some of the other Arab members. But in this configuration
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: right now, even with that Rom party, they wouldn't be
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: able to get to 61. So they would actually have
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: to sit with extremely anti-Zionist parties in order to oust Netanyahu.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: They may be looking for a way to not form
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: a government, but still get 61 votes to try to
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: change the law to make it so that Netanyahu, who
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: currently remains under trial in bogus corruption case for more
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: than six years already... to pass a law that would
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: prevent Netanyahu from being able to run in a future election.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: So they might try to collude with the Heira parties
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: to make it complicated for Netanyahu to run again. I
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: don't think that's going to happen. I don't think the
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: Supreme Court would let that happen, even though the court
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: is not in favor of Netanyahu either. And President Herzog,
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: he also holds an ace up his sleeve, which is
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: a presidential pardon. We know that President Trump has called
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: on Herzog to pardon Netanyahu multiple times. And that's something
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: that Herzog could do if he feels like the Arabs
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: together with the left are trying to unfairly invalidate Netanyahu. Wow.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Unbelievable. The drama continues. Well, you and I will talk
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: all day today. If there's any major change, feel free
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: to call the show live. And tell us. I don't
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: anticipate that. I know you don't either. But certainly a
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: lot going on in Israel. And at least if you're
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: a BB fan like I am, the news looks, at
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: least now, pretty good. Alex Trayman, I love you. You're great.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Your new story on JNS.org is a must read. Thank
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: you for doing this this morning. And we'll talk very,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: very soon.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Looking forward. Thank you so much, Sid.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: God bless you. Alex Treyman right there, the CEO of JNS.org.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: And if you're a BB supporter like me, for the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: most part, for the most part, that was a pretty
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: positive conversation. More to come. You know, talking about Israel,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: this Sunday is a New York City marathon. My next guest,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: one of the greatest New York football giant players ever.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: He's run this marathon a bunch. But his favorite marathon?
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Maybe the one in Israel. Well, how about that? Kiki
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Barber is going to stop by. It is the Wednesday
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: edition of Sid and Friends in the Morning.
• 14:08
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• 14:11
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• 14:16
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• 14:20
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• 14:25
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• 14:28
  Speaker 3: have to wonder
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: What the heck is going on here