Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The Stock Market Crash - My Thoughts + Stock Market News 27 March 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The Stock Market Crash - My Thoughts + Stock Market News 27 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market market.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Live on a day where people are feeling, oh dear, is this happening again?
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Another red morning Tariff news once again.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: And I want to walk you through this, just the way that people used to walk me through what was happening every day when I was working inside of a bank We'd have a big morning meeting at an ungodly hour of 7.30 in the morning Actually, it was 7 am.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: It was horrible and someone very smart, usually from the other side of the world, would walk us through all the things that are happening and it's like tremendously useful.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: So that's what I want to do for you here in the next few minutes, and this is it.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Is this a stock market meltdown?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, most people are expecting that.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I mean understand that there are some headlines out again on Bloomberg whether the AI rally is truly over.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: We need to understand the auto tariff hit here from yesterday, which is Trump's latest.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: The Tesla impact, I think is going to be useful for a lot of you.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: And what are consumers really expecting stock prices to do in the coming weeks?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And how do we read the markets like right now?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: What do we do right now?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: And why are tech stocks so bloody weak?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Why are they not going up?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Why are they the ones that are selling off hardest, which is what hitting a lot of your portfolios?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: A good quick market sentiment check.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: And then what happens next with tariffs.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: How can we be prepared for it?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: And, perhaps most importantly, how lots of money is going to be made in the next few months and I is going to be made in the next few months, and I want you to be part of those people who make lots of money.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: And, because it's a bit of a gloomy day, we're actually joined here today by Winston.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: We have a Winston cam now and a button.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Isn't that fun.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: There he is sleeping, though he's thinking thoughts about green portfolios, I think so.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I will refer to him occasionally when we need some real expert advice, because you know he's the one who does all the thinking and research around here, right, don't you Winston?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think so.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So, in all seriousness, though, if this is going to be useful for you, let me know.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Put a 10 in the chat, because we've got 10 points to go through today and I will, and Winston will walk you through it here today.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: My friend Biggest Dick is another Python fan.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Hey, okay, so let's get straight into it.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Loving all the 10s there from Scott and Patrick and Tony, brilliant, winston Cam.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Love the Winston Cam.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: You should probably just replace me with Winston, right?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I think that'd be a lot more popular.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I'm sure it'd be a lot more useful as well.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So, loving all the tens here, and feel free to write Winston in the chat as well if you want more Winston cam.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: But let's, in all seriousness, look at this and I'll bring Winston back in a moment.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: 51% of Americans that's you expect a major stock market meltdown.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, what sort of clipboard-wielding nutter approached you and said excuse me, do you expect a stock market meltdown?
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Not, like you know.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Is it going to go up or down?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Is it going to melt down?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of an odd one, and you know surveys.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I don't really read that much into them, but I have a counterpiece of data for you which I think will help you understand that data point quite nicely here as well.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: And we're getting more Winstons than 10s now.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: So many streamers, so little likes Patrick, thanks for the likes, my friends as well.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: It helps spread real information, real education, to more people, which is really what this is all about.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, so this is one of the things that also hit markets yesterday, and this is on Bloomberg.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Microsoft has apparently canceled new data center contracts in the US and Europe, and they're doing that because they're basically doing less with open AI, so they're putting less money into openAI, and OpenAI is now using cloud computing services from other companies, so Microsoft is kind of diversifying its AI bet there, and, yeah, they're still going to spend 80 billion this year, which is still quite a lot, but they're scaling down a little bit here.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, the fear mongers go AI is over.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Td Cohen is one of those.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit more nuanced.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I think they were just going to build out all of OpenAI's demand and then no longer doing that, and therefore they're scaling it back a little bit.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So that's the way I would look at that.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's the end of the world.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Now this, though, is a little bit more serious.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: We've got Goldman Sachs no, what's GM stand for?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Car manufacturers down, gm, particularly Ford, only down a little bit here, and what is it all about?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Trump's latest thing?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Well, I think this is probably the one chart that I would take a screenshot of If you are looking to make money Out of the tariff story here, and that is who's actually going to get hit from this?
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Well, Stellantis and Ford Make 57% and 77% of their cars in the US.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: They assemble quite a significant part in Canada and Mexico.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Now this is assembled and Elon came out, so it might make you think, oh, tesla isn't going to get hit with some sort of favor by Trump, but it's not that, because Elon tweeted this and says important to note that Tesla is not unscathed here.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: About 40% of all Tesla parts are foreign, bloody foreigners.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Now, that's still much better than Ford or GM, where it's like 70% of parts, but it's still going to drive up costs and therefore squeeze margins, so it's not good news for anybody.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Really, what's going to happen here with that?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Well, what I think is going to happen is that in the short term.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So in the short term, near term, short term, what do you think happens?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I think just less car sales.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: People are just going to buy less cars.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: And in the long term, what's going to happen?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: And a lot of you are going to disagree with me on this one In the long term, tesla wins, and they do that in two ways.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: One is lower prices, because they have more American components and therefore their cost base is lower.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: But in the real long term and I think that's really the one that I would focus on if you have a little bit of longer term horizons, the next generation won't own a car, and I know if you're American that's a little hard to imagine because to you car ownership is a big thing.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: You're a bit like the Germans there, right?
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So why?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Because we're going to have basically, auto as a service.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: There'll be RoboCaps, they'll be way, way, way cheaper.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: You don't need to own them.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: There'll be an app, you'll have some sort of subscription to it and it'll take you all everywhere and you need to think about a thing.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: It'd be perfectly safe.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: You don't need to drive, you don't need to think about a thing and you just be napping in that car or snacking in that car.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: I appreciate a lot of you.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: The next generation is going to grow up with this and go.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Why do I want to own a car?
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: And it's already a fact.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: If you go to major cities, right, a lot of people like in New York or somewhere like that, they don't own a car because it's just not necessary.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Ubers are plentiful, but the robo-taxis are going to be affordable, whereas Ubers are getting pretty expensive, I think.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So who's going to win from this?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Well, who's ahead with building these out, these robo-taxis?
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: It's Tesla.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I know Google does a bit of it, but I don't think it's quite the same same technology here.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So I think Tesla is going to win from this in the long term, but in the short term, they'll be paying all around, paying us, all around us.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: It's everywhere I go.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So now, before we run through the next five things here that I want to really really explain to you, because I think it's important that well, us retail investors understand this.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: And Winston, of course there is Winston, but let me know if you actually find this useful.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: If you actually want me to walk through all the steps of the market here and I do this for you, just write like you know I want it, or just write want in the comments down below, and that way I know that you actually want the information and Winston's going to do more research here for you.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Now, the same vein.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: The same vein Winston said to me today we should do something bigger than this, because a lot of people are getting really worried about their portfolios, right, like what if it goes down another 20%?
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: He'd be worried, right?
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: How many of you are holding stocks right now that are significantly down?
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Right, I imagine most of you.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I mean put it in the chat, like the stocks that are down that you're holding.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: And I use a system to invest that I've used for years.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I call it the Wall Street Protocol, and it's based on what the most successful traders and investors in the world have been using literally for decades, and Winston and I use it every week.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: It takes a couple of hours tops and we're doing very, very nicely with it, and I know some of you guys are my students already.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: You know what I'm talking about and you can actually learn the foundations of that in a very, very short period of time, like an hour or two, and our mission here is to literally we want to make a million people financially free, and I'm loving all you guys writing one here in the chat because it'll be more fun, life will be better, more people will have a big smile on their face and and I've been where you are, which is in the corporate world and trying to figure it all out and not really understanding the money and markets and investing and then losing money and all of that.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: So what I'm going to do for you on this Saturday, I'm going to host the final live webinar that we're going to do here and I'm going to teach you not just the rules of how to win big in the coming rebound, which will happen, but I'll also teach you how you keep those winnings when markets crashes.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: And that, I think, would be the most useful lesson for anybody out there who's gone through the last 20, 30 days here, because it hasn't felt all that good, right?
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So there's a link down below.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: It's felixfriendsorg slash webinar and you can click on that.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: I'll put it for you in the chat here as well.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: And, um, it's literally this Saturday morning 11 AM.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: It'll be live.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: We'll go for probably about two hours, cause I want to answer a lot of your questions.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Um, so if you want to join us there, register for that right now, not later or tomorrow or in another day, because it's going to get filled.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we're going to have a thousand spots there.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: It's completely free.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And link is also down below in the description and also in the comment.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: I've just pinned it.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So if you want to join me and actually really take this experience to the next level by learning something from this dip and going.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Well, this pain has actually been worth it, because it's what motivated me to get really, really good at this.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're going to do.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to teach you that Winston will be there.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Probably don't you, wouldn't you, winston?
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: You'd be like I'd rather be on a mountain and Charlie is saying, type win, in the chat, if you're going to go and join us live on Saturday morning.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: That's very cool of you.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Alpha Charlie there.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, so I promised you another point here, right?
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So I promised you, if you've just joined us, let me go very quickly to the top of our list here so you know exactly where we're at right.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: So what are our consumers really expecting for stock prices?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: That's where we're at right now.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: How do we read markets right now?
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Why are tech stocks so weak?
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: What's the market sentiment?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: What happens next?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Tech stocks a week what's the market sentiment?
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: What happens next and how is lots of money going to be made over the next couple of weeks?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: That's what's coming up here.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: We just briefly touched up on tariffs there and this is a sort of chart.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Wall Street makes.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: It takes about 15 minutes to stare at it to actually try to figure out what it means.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: That's at least the way I feel about this.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: And well, what have we got?
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Well, basically, we've got a lot of consumers expecting lower stock prices, so basically, falling prices.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: That's what they expected.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Now, is that an outlier?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we had that once in 2020.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Something happened in 2020.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Does anybody remember?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know, somebody wanted to inject me with something as a result, and we did that in 2012.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: We did that in 2008.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: And then before that, we did it sort of 1998 or something like that.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Now, those were all dips.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Right, they were all dips.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: But what really is actually interesting from this data and I think this is the real lesson, the real takeaway, like the bottom line here is that a year later, in all scenarios where we had these massive dips except for 2008, we were down minus 3.5% a year later, but in all the other ones, we were significantly up I mean significantly up right.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: So when everybody is fearful and everybody is panicking, if you know what to do and you know the right steps and you understand the patterns of how the market moves,