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Recession Fears Skyrocket!🚀Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Recession fears are starting to surge. Could the FED actually
0:03
Speaker 1: do a rate increase. We'll break it all down for
0:05
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0:49
Speaker 1: Let's go over to a few points I want to
0:50
Speaker 1: lead off with, and of course that is what's happening
0:53
Speaker 1: this week. We have the US market open after it
0:55
Speaker 1: strikes on Iran's oil facility that happened. We saw what happened,
0:59
Speaker 1: and I'll talk a little bit about oil prices. Tenth
1:01
Speaker 1: of March. We're going to see existing home sale data.
1:04
Speaker 1: We'll also see the CPI and the core CPI data
1:06
Speaker 1: come in this week, and then you're going to look
1:08
Speaker 1: at initial jobless claims. This will be a big factor
1:11
Speaker 1: I think for the FED. Last up, of course, you'll
1:14
Speaker 1: see the quarter four GDP second estimate, and of course
1:18
Speaker 1: the jolts data. All of this happening this week. So
1:21
Speaker 1: with everything going on in Iran and now economically here
1:24
Speaker 1: in the US, this puts a lot of pressure on
1:27
Speaker 1: the market in general. The US and Israel of course,
1:30
Speaker 1: did just bomb a major oil depot in Iran. You
1:34
Speaker 1: saw an immediate surge in the market on oil prices.
1:37
Speaker 1: Then what happened was a retlacement after some announcements that
1:42
Speaker 1: started to change the situation. Of course, where that came
1:46
Speaker 1: from was on the G seven countries which are considering
1:49
Speaker 1: a joint release of oil from the reserve, potentially as
1:52
Speaker 1: much as four hundred million barrels. This of course started
1:55
Speaker 1: to stabilize prices, and now we're setting back down to
1:58
Speaker 1: below one oh eight. As we're talking right now. I
2:01
Speaker 1: think it's actually around one hundred bucks. One other thing
2:04
Speaker 1: that happened is this right here, as soon as the
2:07
Speaker 1: Trump came back on and said, hey, we're going to
2:08
Speaker 1: hold a press conference, I think he's in reference to
2:10
Speaker 1: the situation around oil. Oil prices started to retrace even further.
2:14
Speaker 1: And you've got President Trump of course doing that emergency
2:18
Speaker 1: oil reserves right now hitting the markets. You've got Japan
2:21
Speaker 1: setting at two hundred and fifty days worth, the US
2:24
Speaker 1: at around one hundred and twenty five, Germany at ninety,
2:26
Speaker 1: and so on. You can kind of see the G
2:28
Speaker 1: seven lined up fairly well. There Canada not available that
2:31
Speaker 1: I wonder why. Further into this, you've got dependent nations
2:35
Speaker 1: and this is all depending on the straight or horror moves.
2:38
Speaker 1: Japan also being hit seventy percent of their dependency, South
2:42
Speaker 1: Korea also almost seventy percent, India sixty, China forty five.
2:47
Speaker 1: USA right now only five to seven percent in the
2:50
Speaker 1: Seas of course, did take a hit. The ni K
2:53
Speaker 1: down five percent on a lot of this action that's
2:55
Speaker 1: happening there in the Middle East, and will most likely
2:59
Speaker 1: continued to see a lot of volatility in the Japanese
3:02
Speaker 1: markets coming online. Here's a tweet that was done in
3:05
Speaker 1: March of twenty twelve, right there, thirteen years ago, and
3:10
Speaker 1: this was in reference to gas prices. I think Trump
3:14
Speaker 1: is very aware of the tax on all Americans that
3:18
Speaker 1: it poses, and I think that's why we're seeing a
3:21
Speaker 1: press conference today to address this going forward. I want
3:24
Speaker 1: to go to a clip real quick though, that will
3:26
Speaker 1: give us a little bit of outline of where this
3:29
Speaker 1: could go in the future. Take a look.
3:32
Speaker 2: There is no precedent for this. The sky is the limit.
3:36
Speaker 2: It's how much is our people willing to pay for
3:39
Speaker 2: alternative supplies. We've had shocks before. Yes, you're absolutely right.
3:43
Speaker 2: We can think about seventy three, seventy four, the Iranian
3:47
Speaker 2: Revolution in nineteen seventy nine, Go four, nineteen nineteen, invasion
3:51
Speaker 2: of Iraq, twenty oh three. There's a whole list of
3:54
Speaker 2: various disruptions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But in each
3:58
Speaker 2: of those cases that the actual physical disruption to the
4:02
Speaker 2: oil market, which was not inconsiderable. Of course, because oil
4:06
Speaker 2: price is sowed. We saw recessions of various lengths in
4:10
Speaker 2: the wake of those swing prices. We have not yet
4:14
Speaker 2: seen the complete closure of the straight of ull moves
4:18
Speaker 2: for any In fact, we've never seen a closure of
4:20
Speaker 2: the straight of holl moves, let alone for any significant
4:24
Speaker 2: period of time.
4:26
Speaker 1: So this makes things a little different for sure. And
4:29
Speaker 1: oil price will create a lot of pressure on the
4:32
Speaker 1: US economy. If you look at the polymarket right now
4:36
Speaker 1: and where a barrel of oil will be right now,
4:39
Speaker 1: it's hovering around one hundred dollars mark. Remember when we
4:42
Speaker 1: saw seventy dollars and sixty dollars a barrel of oil,
4:45
Speaker 1: that was probably some of the best pricing that we
4:47
Speaker 1: had seen around fuel in the United States in a while.
4:50
Speaker 1: This of course is now almost double that. So this
4:53
Speaker 1: is a big, significant situation that is evolving into potentially
4:58
Speaker 1: pushing the United States. Remember, energy one of the cornerstones
5:02
Speaker 1: of what makes this country run along with every country
5:05
Speaker 1: out there. The petrol scenario is definitely not the biggest
5:09
Speaker 1: a shock in history, but definitely one that is significant.
5:13
Speaker 1: And back to the clip that the analyst was talking about,
5:16
Speaker 1: this is the first time the strait of hormose has
5:17
Speaker 1: been affected, which is the physical movement of oil out there.
5:21
Speaker 1: And I know there's a lot of stories, Paul, Yeah,
5:23
Speaker 1: but you know they're talking about navy escorts and all
5:26
Speaker 1: these things, and the Greeks are going to front run it,
5:28
Speaker 1: you know, all these kinds of things. Yes, that could happen,
5:31
Speaker 1: and yes there could be even some backup to a
5:33
Speaker 1: certain extent, some of the insurance side of this, where
5:36
Speaker 1: Lloyd's of London had stepped out. The point is is
5:39
Speaker 1: that it's still pressure on the system, regardless of the narrative.
5:45
Speaker 1: We have to be able to get this into a
5:46
Speaker 1: position where it no longer is an issue. I think
5:49
Speaker 1: that's the point that is going to affect the American
5:53
Speaker 1: economy of the most. Anthony Apopliano though still out there
5:56
Speaker 1: pumping in the sense that he is looking at inflation
5:59
Speaker 1: under one percent in America. This of course is coming
6:01
Speaker 1: from trueflation. Though let's understand there are some significant things
6:05
Speaker 1: that are not included in trueflation that should be I
6:10
Speaker 1: ask the trueflation guys, you guys should start to include
6:13
Speaker 1: a lot more of those data points. I think our
6:15
Speaker 1: inflation is probably going to be considerably higher based on
6:18
Speaker 1: what we're dealing with right now, unless there is a
6:22
Speaker 1: major development that starts to spend things here, and that
6:25
Speaker 1: could possibly be the case. You have to think about
6:28
Speaker 1: the Trump administration and what they've been able to do
6:31
Speaker 1: so far. Could they do it again? We'll see here,
6:33
Speaker 1: of course, is Peter Schiff talking about soaring oil prices
6:36
Speaker 1: won't cause high inflation. Instead, they'll cause a recession. It's
6:39
Speaker 1: the fiscal and monetary policies that will follow sowing soaring
6:42
Speaker 1: oil prices that will cause higher inflation. I mean, yes,
6:46
Speaker 1: it is, but I think inflation is going to get
6:50
Speaker 1: hit here by some of the fiscal monetary policies that
6:53
Speaker 1: will be implemented. But because of that, so yes, we
6:57
Speaker 1: will be dealing with the likelihood of a much more
7:01
Speaker 1: tightened economy. And of course this puts the FED in
7:05
Speaker 1: a very precarious situation. I think they are in a
7:08
Speaker 1: situation right now where you're seeing potentially high inflation and
7:12
Speaker 1: also a job destabilization right now, especially as we start
7:15
Speaker 1: to see AI invade a lot of companies in terms
7:19
Speaker 1: of productivity. Here's Mohammed la Rain. He's talking about something
7:24
Speaker 1: we haven't talked about here on the show, and that
7:27
Speaker 1: is that markets are now pricing in a rate hike.
7:31
Speaker 1: Are you pricing in a rate hike right now? Just
7:33
Speaker 1: thinking about the FED in a March FOMC. Would you
7:37
Speaker 1: expect a rate hike coming out of chair pal Let
7:40
Speaker 1: me know, yes, rate hike. No rate hike down below
7:44
Speaker 1: in the comments, I want to go to a clip
7:45
Speaker 1: real quick. This has been count He's talking about that
7:48
Speaker 1: because the FED is in a bad spot. Take a look.
7:51
Speaker 3: When you go a full year without with net losses
7:57
Speaker 3: in jobs, that's when your recession occurred. A year ago,
8:02
Speaker 3: we've only added about one hundred and fifty six thousand jobs. Now,
8:07
Speaker 3: if this were the only problem, then the FED could
8:10
Speaker 3: just simply go aggressively cut rates. Oil is up twelve
8:14
Speaker 3: to thirteen percent. That's the reason why the Fed can't
8:17
Speaker 3: aggressively cut rates. The Fed can defend one weakness. If
8:23
Speaker 3: inflation is running hot, then they raise rates. If the
8:29
Speaker 3: unemployment rate is running hot, they lower rates. What do
8:35
Speaker 3: you do when they both go up? That is what
8:39
Speaker 3: leads the checkmate.
8:42
Speaker 1: Well, he is right. This is the thing that we've
8:44
Speaker 1: talked about quite a bit here on the channel, is
8:46
Speaker 1: that jobs is the catalyst that should have been slowed
8:50
Speaker 1: down a long time ago. Never got in a position
8:53
Speaker 1: to get slowed down. AI is kicked in. Now we
8:56
Speaker 1: see a new threat coming into the United States which
8:59
Speaker 1: is good, be more economic threat. So Ben is right
9:02
Speaker 1: there and I'll just go over here to Brent Doyle.
9:05
Speaker 1: This is as we're recording right now. You can kind
9:07
Speaker 1: of see, I mean, we're nearing that point of one hundred.
9:11
Speaker 1: This was back in January of twenty twenty two. That
9:14
Speaker 1: was one of the highest points we had seen. There
9:16
Speaker 1: was one hundred and fifteen dollars a barrel. We are
9:19
Speaker 1: sitting now at one hundred dollars a barrel. But look
9:22
Speaker 1: at this low right there, sixty two dollars back here
9:25
Speaker 1: on January the eleventh. So that's the difference. We have
9:29
Speaker 1: almost doubled in less than three months. That's the kind
9:33
Speaker 1: of impact that can start to shift economic positions going forward.
9:37
Speaker 1: So a lot of issues going on right now. US
9:41
Speaker 1: recession by end of twenty twenty six, probability is now
9:45
Speaker 1: starting to spike. It was at twenty two percent. If
9:48
Speaker 1: you look at the polymarket on this has spiked when
9:52
Speaker 1: all the way up here to thirty seven. I think
9:54
Speaker 1: with Trump's announcement that we're going to talk about this
9:57
Speaker 1: and give you a plan, it has come back down.
10:00
Speaker 1: Anticipation right here. If Trump does not come out with
10:02
Speaker 1: a clean plan for the United States in terms of
10:06
Speaker 1: economic security. This could end up being another spike on
10:11
Speaker 1: poly market around the recession fears. Going forward, It's time
10:14
Speaker 1: to anticipate the arrival of a black swan or what's
10:20
Speaker 1: the black swan this? Remember, the stock market still has
10:24
Speaker 1: not completely retraced. We have not seen major falloff in
10:29
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred, even though there has
10:31
Speaker 1: been some pullback, no major falloff yet. Let me go
10:35
Speaker 1: to a clip real quick, because this will get into something,
10:37
Speaker 1: which is the cracks from some of the financial giants.
10:41
Speaker 1: Are they starting to happen. Take a look.
10:43
Speaker 4: This is the first time in the fund's four year
10:45
Speaker 4: history that we draw requests top five percent. Black Crook
10:48
Speaker 4: said it would pay out six hundred and twenty million
10:50
Speaker 4: dollars as part of the quarterly redemption the five percent
10:55
Speaker 4: threshold at which managers can restrict withdrawals. Look, no one's
10:58
Speaker 4: calling a crisis in the area yet. It is just
11:01
Speaker 4: very interesting that an area of the market which was
11:04
Speaker 4: so unbelievably hot the last couple of years, and of
11:07
Speaker 4: which people have come through this desk and said to
11:09
Speaker 4: Karen and I, Oh, the private market is great. It's
11:11
Speaker 4: great for retail investors. It's great for professional investors. It's
11:14
Speaker 4: amazing the opportunities will unlock where I have to say,
11:18
Speaker 4: the question being asked by this desk for those last
11:20
Speaker 4: two years was was this an area that was staffed
11:22
Speaker 4: of capital in the first place? And what is in
11:25
Speaker 4: it for the retail investor when there are so many
11:26
Speaker 4: professionals who know their way around private markets way better
11:30
Speaker 4: than they do as well. But interesting, we're seeing redemptions
11:33
Speaker 4: at more than one fund now potentially building up as well.
11:36
Speaker 4: And as I say, there's been a couple of issues
11:39
Speaker 4: in the private credit market. No one's calling a broader crisis,
11:42
Speaker 4: but it is fascinating to look at this juxtapost to
11:44
Speaker 4: other things that are going on in the market.
11:47
Speaker 1: Okay, so with that being said, I'm just looking at
11:49
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred chart here. The last
11:52
Speaker 1: time we had that major pullback, this was in January
11:55
Speaker 1: of twenty two, that pulled back almost twenty five percent
11:59
Speaker 1: to that and then of course we've seen nothing but
12:02
Speaker 1: pretty much up with exception of right there, which was
12:04
Speaker 1: December of last year when Trump took office and we
12:07
Speaker 1: had the pullback, and then what we've experienced so far,
12:10
Speaker 1: So are we rounding the top again, are we kind
12:12
Speaker 1: of in these positions where market pullbacks could happen? If
12:17
Speaker 1: that is the case, and you came off the top
12:19
Speaker 1: on this is the monthly chart right here, and you
12:21
Speaker 1: came off the chart to a twenty five percent again,
12:24
Speaker 1: I mean you're talking about a fifty one hundred s
12:27
Speaker 1: and p. That would be catastrophic and definitely Now could
12:30
Speaker 1: it be recession inducing? I think that's the question everybody's
12:34
Speaker 1: asking right now. I've got a couple of clips here
12:36
Speaker 1: from Kathy Wood because she kind of points it out
12:40
Speaker 1: a little bit, especially with Blackrock, because sometimes is that
12:43
Speaker 1: the canary in the coal mine. Take a look.
12:45
Speaker 5: Private credit is the other worry today that there's about
12:49
Speaker 5: one point eight trillion dollars in private credit. Just today
12:54
Speaker 5: Blackrock decided not to satisfy nine point three per in
13:00
Speaker 5: redemptions from its largest private credit fund only allowed five percent,
13:06
Speaker 5: so roughly half. So there are a lot of nervous
13:09
Speaker 5: individuals who thought they were buying funds that were guaranteeing
13:16
Speaker 5: dividends in the ten to twelve percent range and they
13:19
Speaker 5: just felt safe. It was bond like when the treasury
13:25
Speaker 5: yield out there is four percent, you have to know
13:29
Speaker 5: you're taking some kind of risk, and the risk here
13:34
Speaker 5: is bankruptcies.
13:37
Speaker 1: All right, so she said the B word for blackrock,
13:41
Speaker 1: not blackrock in specific. But the point is is that
13:44
Speaker 1: we're talking about the risk level that I don't think
13:48
Speaker 1: is a tolerable risk from this kind of investor. Now
13:54
Speaker 1: she goes further into this, because there's two things that
13:56
Speaker 1: can happen here. You could see systemic risks start to
13:59
Speaker 1: build into the system. This of course could cause domino effects,
14:04
Speaker 1: which creates you know, nineteen twenty nine like effects happening
14:09
Speaker 1: on the S and P. Yes, all that could happen
14:11
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. So be cautious here, now, Kathy says, no,
14:16
Speaker 1: we think it might go another way.
14:18
Speaker 5: Take a look, of course, if something goes wrong, well,
14:23
Speaker 5: I don't think we're worse off, except for, of course,
14:27
Speaker 5: the people who have lost their lives and wartime being
14:31
Speaker 5: a horrible thing.
14:33
Speaker 1: All right, Okay, I think she's wrong there. I think
14:36
Speaker 1: if something goes wrong here, both in the Iranian conflict
14:41
Speaker 1: or in this private credit market, either one of those
14:45
Speaker 1: I think could start to cause these ripple effects, these
14:48
Speaker 1: domino effects into the market. Has something to be concerned about.
14:51
Speaker 1: So it is something that we're going to continue to
14:53
Speaker 1: kind of keep a close eye on as we go forward,
14:56
Speaker 1: because there's a few things that are starting to construct
15:00
Speaker 1: around where are the safe potentials here. Many people would say, well,
15:04
Speaker 1: with all of this happening, people would say, well, maybe
15:06
Speaker 1: it's gold. Then you have the you know, the gold
15:09
Speaker 1: cartel idea out there that gold is being manipulated. Then
15:13
Speaker 1: people would look at bitcoin, Well, bitcoin had a flash run,
15:16
Speaker 1: it retraced back under seventy k. Now you have X
15:20
Speaker 1: stocks now building in with Nasdaq. So what we're talking
15:23
Speaker 1: about here, which I think is chasing liquidity, which is
15:27
Speaker 1: where we have X stocks now partnering with the Nasdaq.
15:30
Speaker 1: This of course will create more liquidity in this around
15:34
Speaker 1: some of these tokenied equities, so that in itself could
15:36
Speaker 1: open up some interesting trading angles. And then you have
15:40
Speaker 1: this right here, which is RWA's RDBA is starting to
15:44
Speaker 1: slide around Salana starting to take position, which flipped ether
15:48
Speaker 1: around RWA's real world assets now, so it's an all
15:51
Speaker 1: time high of nearly one point eight billion. That's forty
15:53
Speaker 1: percent in the last thirty days. That's a big deal.
15:56
Speaker 1: That's a big deal. Then you have Tom Lee saying, okay, well,
15:59
Speaker 1: maybe eth is a safe haven. He's continuing to pile
16:03
Speaker 1: in the one that we have talked about quite a bit.
16:05
Speaker 1: He bought sixty thousand eth. The one we have said
16:08
Speaker 1: is when he starts buying one hundred k chunks of
16:11
Speaker 1: eth one hundred thousand ethereum, at that point we have
16:16
Speaker 1: probably seen the bottom end. At that point, most likely
16:19
Speaker 1: bitmind is continuing on its track to try to get
16:22
Speaker 1: to five percent of supply ethan Bitcoin o g's are
16:25
Speaker 1: also buying, like to no tomorrow. Many people might say
16:28
Speaker 1: bitcoin is the route to take here, even though Peter
16:30
Speaker 1: Schiff would probably argue that as gold. So where are
16:34
Speaker 1: you guys playing in terms of diversified assets? Are you
16:37
Speaker 1: looking at digital assets right now? Are you looking at
16:41
Speaker 1: physical gold and silver? Are you looking at stocks and treasuries?
16:45
Speaker 1: Where are you playing it? Let me know down in
16:47
Speaker 1: the comments, because this is where things get very interesting
16:51
Speaker 1: for sure. Now listen, this inflation situation is not just
16:54
Speaker 1: happening around gas. I think we're going to start to
16:56
Speaker 1: see maybe a rolling hit on a lot of different industries.
17:01
Speaker 1: One of the things is that you just watch what
17:03
Speaker 1: retail is doing. Here's pocopia. Now, I know you guys
17:06
Speaker 1: probably are going, wait a minute, a game, yeah, a game. Well,
17:10
Speaker 1: these are the kind of things that happened in terms
17:13
Speaker 1: of big cultural shifts. When you see something that could
17:16
Speaker 1: happen in changing the course of a game, rollout a movie,
17:20
Speaker 1: rollout things that the US population actually go, wait a minute,
17:25
Speaker 1: it was you know, it was considerably cheaper just five
17:27
Speaker 1: days ago. They're starting to see this maybe in other
17:30
Speaker 1: areas that could of course put more pressure on the economy.
17:34
Speaker 1: Other things you got to look at is how is
17:36
Speaker 1: this going to play out in DC? Well, you've got
17:38
Speaker 1: the Senate now in a battle which was not look here,
17:42
Speaker 1: Republican party in October of last year, it was a
17:45
Speaker 1: slam dunk. Senate's in no problem. It's slipped right here.
17:50
Speaker 1: In December, we're down to sixty six percent probability, and
17:53
Speaker 1: now we have fallen in here under sixty percent and
17:56
Speaker 1: it is almost a toss up at fifty seven on
18:01
Speaker 1: the Senate being lost by the Republicans. So I've had
18:05
Speaker 1: some guys on here still saying that they feel like
18:07
Speaker 1: the Senate is in control. This thing gets a little
18:10
Speaker 1: bit sideways here, and I think you are in a
18:13
Speaker 1: position where the Trump administration loses both Health and Senate
18:17
Speaker 1: Texas another major stronghold of Republicans, seventy five percent in December,
18:24
Speaker 1: holding on strong, falling under seventy percent right here in February,
18:29
Speaker 1: and then now here we are at sixty four as
18:32
Speaker 1: we're recording today, So sixty four to thirty seven. You
18:35
Speaker 1: might say, well, that's no big deal. It's not a
18:37
Speaker 1: big thing. Sixty four to thirty seven, easy slam dunk.
18:40
Speaker 1: Watch Texas very closely, guys, because this could set the
18:42
Speaker 1: course of the nation. JP Morgan also talking about this
18:46
Speaker 1: is the thing that will get us out of this mess,
18:48
Speaker 1: and that is it's going to come down to the
18:50
Speaker 1: three MS munitions. We're going to run out of bullets,
18:53
Speaker 1: not really bullets, but you know what I'm talking about.
18:55
Speaker 1: Markets are going to pressure the Trump administration into a
18:58
Speaker 1: different strategy and midterms midterms most likely lost at this
19:04
Speaker 1: time unless Trump does something interesting, and that might be
19:10
Speaker 1: the thing to watch right here, because that will be
19:12
Speaker 1: one of those volatile market moving times. Could be something
19:17
Speaker 1: around clarity, could be something completely around other industries including energy,
19:22
Speaker 1: technology AI. Who knows, but there's going to be some
19:25
Speaker 1: interesting points that will be happening. JP Morgan came in
19:28
Speaker 1: and says no bottom yet in stocks. He thinks they
19:32
Speaker 1: think that it could be this or next week. I'm
19:34
Speaker 1: not so sure. I think this if it goes on longer,
19:37
Speaker 1: I mean, the conflict goes on longer, be on the
19:41
Speaker 1: lookout here for the S and P two bottom bottom