Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Germany Finishes Dumping Bitcoin!🚀Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

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Germany Finishes Dumping Bitcoin!🚀Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

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All right, so we'll be doing a Friday update for you guys today.
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Take a look at where the bitcoin ethereum and a handful of all coin markets
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might be going. You guys are gonna love it. My name is Paul
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Barrel. Welcome back in a tech path. Joining me, of course,
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is mister Evan al Low coming in from his time up north. Have you
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back? It feels good to be back. You're always traveling, man,
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a little bit, a little bit out there. You're running across in Asia.
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You go anyway. Yeah, you're always having fun. I like that,
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Evan. Before we get started, I do want to thank our sponsor,
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1:00
I've get you one hundred dollars funding reward Evan. Let's jump into a couple
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of the news items today. One of course, is breaking right here.
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Germany's government sells off the remainder of its bitcoin holdings, totaling up a two
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point nine bill, so not a lot, you know, comparison of what
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the size of bitcoin's market cap is. And you look at this statement here,
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I think people would look at it and say, Germany is going to
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look at this and say a year from now when bitcoin could be one hundred
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to work fifty and just go, what have we done? What have we
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done? I think so, Yeah, I do think so. Although that
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amount of money is not a lot to a government, to the nation state.
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When you look at the chart right now on bitcoin and the current position,
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do you feel like we got a little bit more pushed down or do
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you feel like this might be the last of the squeeze. I'm pretty optimistic.
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When I look at the chart here, I see a lot of things
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that are similar to kind of last summer when we did see kind of a
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summer wall here on my chart, where back right around August of twenty three,
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you pivoted around, you bounced around a little bit, and if you
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look here at these emas on the two day, See how they came gray
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and they came down. That was the majority of the pain was done.
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You had a wig down a little bit farther. But when I look at
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that comparatively, you see this anchor wave right there. You saw the same
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thing kind of confirm over here. So I think, either you're gonna see
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nice recovery upward, or we're gonna be due for some boringness, some range
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boundness, which you do kind of see that every summer. And you know,
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if you look here, a lot of excitement a little bit there,
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but we haven't really seen that real boringness that you do see typically every summer.
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You saw it back here too at the bottom. We are due for
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that. So I could see a lot of consolidation, a lot of boringness,
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and then potentially into the end of the year into election, looking at
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November December early next year, a recovery back up to seventy K, and
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then potentially making new all time highs around eighty k later this year early next
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year. That's what I'm really looking at, right, So still very bullish
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then generally yeah, all right, well, okay, so you look at
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that comparison to what's happening from a macro standpoint. A couple of things.
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We saw the CPI number comes came in very soft this week, and then
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after the PPI report, odds now went up on a September pivot from ninety
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percent to ninety eight percent, potentially for a pivot on an interest rate adjustment
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by the Fed, if that were to happen in September, Yeah, what
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do you think crypto does? I like those odds. I think it would
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be generally good for crypto. I mean, you may see a little bit
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of a pullback short term, as you typically do right when the Fed pivots,
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maybe for a few weeks, but I think October November generally would be
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pretty bullish months. I mean, if you do look at September, let's
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be real, September is historically more of a parish month for crypto. But
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I don't think it's going to be that bad, you know what I mean?
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All Right, So you look at the macro environment, the global environment,
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what we're seeing obviously with what happened with Germany and Malcox here recently,
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so we've kind of got that behind us, or it feels like it has
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been behind us. Then you have other scenarios playing out into the space right
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now, mainly from the mag seven, so magnificent seven erase to combine a
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six hundred billion of market cap. This was today comes as the S and
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P five hundred just posted its worst daily performance. This is the first time
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we've really seen the S ANDP do our retraction when you look at that,
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because that's been one of the things that I feel like has been propping up
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Wall Street in general going into an election. How big of an impact does
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that have on crypto markets? Do you feel generally we are going to follow
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the S and P five hundred as we generally have, you know since kind
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of the inception of bitcoin overall, with some quails here and there. And
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if you look at the S and P five hundred chart right here, I'm
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not that bearish on it. I think that you know, you still have
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some you look at the money flow still strung in the ten hour continuation there,
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your next FIB level is going to be around five seventy five. I
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do think you're generally going to continue with the S and P five hundred.
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Sure, there's going to be sale pressure here and there, but I generally
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think into the end of the year, you probably could see upwards of six
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hundred even by the end of the year for the S and P five hundred.
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And I think you're generally gonna see the S and P five hundred do
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well as Bitcoin continues to do well. It did when we saw the first
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bitcoin correction, that SMP five hundred, I performed it during kind of this
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area. But I think they're going to start to follow more now. And
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the thing on bitcoin here, this little trigger wave on the weekly trigger wave
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to the you know, kind of that wave of a higher wave, which
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is really good. You could see a general you know, trajectory and this
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is a long term trajectory here, but this is your keys to around one
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hundred and forty K. I think January of twenty twenty five is way too
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optimistic. I think you would see more of a trajectory like this into middle
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to later of next year, so diminished returns a bit based on that,
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and more of an extension, but I think this will follow the S and
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P five hundred both. Yeah, you're twenty twenty five. You've got Tom
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Lee, one of the leading at US there on Wall Street. He talks
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about this quite a bit of where the SMP could be by year end.
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If you look at my charm right now we're trading, it's fifty six,
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so it's pretty much recovered from yesterday's downfall. And you look at where he's
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pointing out, which is around fifty eight to fifty nine hundred, that would
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be a significant move on the S and P, which is a lot of
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money flow coming back into the SMP as a whole. A sentiment is holding
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right here I'm tending to agree with you, is that maybe this is still
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a bullish trend going forward for the S and P five hundred. With that
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being said, couple other points I want to hit on here. JP Morgan
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EPs came in. This is basically earnings from the banks Wells, Fargo City
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Group, bak A, New York Mellon all beat estimates. So pretty much
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big banks are doing great right now. That continues to bolster up what's happening
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with the S and P five hundred. And of course you've got Tesla coming
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in so planning their delay though on the ROBOTAXI unveiling to October from August.
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So this was Elon has been going on about this August is the date he
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rolls this out now it's October. I don't know if he's trying to buy
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time. Something's going on. I want to play a clip for you though,
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real quick. This is Kathy would talk a little bit more about it.
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You have a sixteen percent based on what Rebecca said, sixteen percent of
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the flagship arg innovation is Tesla. I mean, are you looking to increase
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that waiting is there is there a maximum cap within the strategy for a single
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stop. Now, normally we will start taking profits well before sixteen percent.
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But the reason where we have let Tesla run. We've taken some profits,
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but let it run to a higher percentage than normal of the portfolio is because
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that Tesla is about to give us a lot more information about the robot taxi
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opportunity. Now. Originally August eighth, August eight, so eight eight,
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and I know in China that's a very lucky number, and we thought that
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that's why Elon chose the date. At first it was August eighth. Today
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they pushed it to October, and that just tells me that we're probably getting
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closer to this robo taxi opportunity, not further away. He wants to show
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us something more I think awe inspiring. Then we might have seen on August
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eighth, and he believes as possible by October. All right, So as
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you can see there on that clip, I think this is Kathy would of
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course drink in the kuol ad a bit. I kind of look at it
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this way. You look at FSD, the rollout of FSD, the delay
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of FSD than the rerollout, then the delay of you know, I get
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all of that. And I've been in and out of Tesla's for the last
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five years cars. And what I don't trust right now is that edgy technology.
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If Robotaxi does, if Elon drops something in October, I will be
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pleasantly surprised. I just don't think it will happen. But if you look
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at the stock, he may just be grandstanding. To look at a stock
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run here, what do you think? And what did the charts show?
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So when you look at Tesla's chart right here on the monthly, it does
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look very similar to kind of how we recovered in early kind of twenty twenty
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three deep anchorwave right there that brought us up a lot. You know,
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I traced it from here. If we repeat something similar to there from this
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correction in our twenty twenty four correction, you could be looking at playing around
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with all time highs or making a new all time high either later this year
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or early next year. I think Tesla may follow in the footsteps of what
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we saw with Amazon Apple and may eventually make new all time highs. I
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think there's a lot of you know, a real lot of trajectory here,
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and I mean a year or two down the line, you may see a
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six hundred dollars Tesla. Potentially, there's a lot. You know, it
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looks good. I mean you look at the two week that money flows coming
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up. There's nothing that looks bad, you know, right now? And
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the last thing I'll show you here on the weekly, I mean you're just
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coming into the green right here. This one didn't work well, but usually
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the second time works a lot better. I think there's more more to go
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here. Well. Tesla usually moves on news and if you look at Chinese
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EV sales, that's the number one market for EV growth. You also look
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if he doesn't roll out something in October on ROBOTAXI hopefully he's got something big
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planned. If he does, that will be a significant role and then of
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course he just came in on his most recent quarterly deliveries positively over the previous
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course, so those are all good news. So and hence we've seen Tesla
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kind of move on. I want to jump over to ethereum real quick.
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Nate Garassi here saying that's enough politics. When are we going to see the
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spot ETF And of course I agree with him, but I don't know if
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I'm gonna agree with him. In reference to possibly it being next week,
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he states here, it's been awfully quiet, guessing we'll hear something tomorrow regarding
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the SEC timeline that being today. So nothing yet so far eth as a
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whole. Do you like ethe where it is right now? And how would
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you play this out? I like it a lot. I mean it can
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wick down a little bit lo or. I think it's similar to that situation
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in bitcoin. If we look at the three day here, what happened last
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summer is you came into the red, you came down a bit. You
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had your drop down, just like we saw right here that dropped down.
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Then you got that deep anchor wave. You had some wicks a little bit
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lower than that bottom, but you recovered once you got to October and did
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a lot of stuff right there. So if we look at that, you're
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forming that kind of that deep anchor wave that those RSIs look good. So
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I think you're either going to be range bound for a few months and then
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break upward, or you're just going to continue to break upward here and have
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a nice recovery. I think, you know, similar to Bitcoin, you're
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generally looking at into you know, election, into end of the year,
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hopefully not a new all I mean, we got to go all the way
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up to five thousand for that new all time high, almost forty eight hundred,
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but you could see that potentially, you know, December January of next
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year. A trajectory, a general trajectory like this, now it would not
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surprise me at all, as if you bore a lot of people away,
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do this until the end of August, then you jump up. That's what
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I'm really looking at right here. So overall, I do like it.
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I wouldn't be too afraid about you know, a lot of people are afraid
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about the high time frames like the two week, but just look the last
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time, you know, we had the two week when you came into the
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green, you had a lot more here it wasn't just like you know,
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some people are afraid we're just gonna come with that money flow and go right
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into the right. I think that's pretty unlikely as long as you believe the
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four year cycle is going to stay in TAC, I think it's very likely
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that we have some more here in that with with ethereum. You know,
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I think the scenario right now really plays in on the ETF because the ETF
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is really going to be I think the be the lifeblood of not only people
12:31
learning about it, but being able to go in and maybe make some inflows
12:35
on it. Even though we still have a lot of eth off exchanges.
12:37
Then you have a tremendous amount of be staked, which is going to be
12:41
a supply shock to a certain extent of where this is going. If you
12:45
look at, you know, our our own indicator now, which by the
12:48
way, guys, if you're in our MSI, this indicator is now available
12:52
to you, so you'll be getting an email to where you can actually load
12:54
this indicator into trading view. But even our own sentiments still soft on Ethereum
12:58
right now. I think it's still in a position waiting for this ETHTF kind
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of like what you're talking about in terms of some sideways possibly range bound activity
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over the night, and that's coming soon, and that could be a good
13:11
case. It could be, it could be. I think it's still a
13:13
question. Right late July was kind of our estimate. But this thing rolls
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in talk August. I think that's a problem for ethereum as a whole.
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I don't necessarily say that it will, but if it does, it'll be
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a very big question mark going forward. What's going on with uniswap evan,
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because there is some weird stuff happening. I wanted to jump into a couple
13:33
of yeah, here we go. Weile bought almost two hundred and forty three
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thousand in unitokens, signaling potential bullish movement. Uniswap targeted now on a potential
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forty four percent surge. I don't know. Is this one of those that
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also could be fueled by the eth ETF along with a variety of you know,
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they're all coins that obviously will get sensitive around this. Where are you
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trading and are you trading uniswap? I well, I'm I'm not in a
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trade on it right now, but I do I don't have a problem with
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the chart. I do not have a problem with how this looks. I
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mean, we look at right here, just basic you know, making higher
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lows, sticking to the trend line you retested kind of this big area,
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got a nice jump above it, and now you're hopefully making higher low right
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here, which looks really good. You may be forming still premature, but
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you may be forming a nice trigger wave on the weekly, which would you
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know, compliment that previous trigger wave. And we still haven't gond below that
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low. So I do like how that looks. If we could break up,
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you know, out of this area, just traditional TA would tell you
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that you have a target which is going to be right around twenty dollars,
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which I think you're inevitably going to get to, you know, at some
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point here hopefully end a year or early next year. I'm looking at twenty
14:41
dollars, maybe even sooner. All coins as a whole look pretty good.
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If we look at the two day I mean deeper anchorwave with the money flow,
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or you could argue trigger wave to that anchorwave, that looks pretty good.
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I don't have a problem with this at all. I think it's going
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to continue to do well, So looking good. Right now? What you
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make of this on Solana, because this is if it follows ethereum, there's
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an analyst out there right now that is pointing to a twenty eight hundred dollars
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target. What is your thought on this? Do you like that or you
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don't like it? The eight twenty eight hundreds? Oh man, man,
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I know it's going to break some hearts, but I don't think. I
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don't think Solana is going to get to twenty eight hundred anytime soon. It's
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going to take a few years at least. But you could get somewhere.
15:24
You could get somewhere. And I mean, do I get these crazy numbers?
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I don't know it just ten x from the previous all time high or
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maybe could be that. I think a couple of things they hit on Candlestick
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arrangement. They're saying one to fifty five and later one ninety, and then
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even though it gets a lot of selling pressure, they think they're going to
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see a big move up based on some of the drawdown that we've seen in
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past history. So what do you think in terms of the current chart.
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So I like what we're looking at right here. If we zoom in just
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a little bit just basic ta you had one LOWI area making a high or
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low. That looks pretty good. If you are to break out of this
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double bottom right here, you're gonna have a technical target right around two sixty
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two, which is a pretty big area if we you know, previous all
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time high, potentially making a new new all time high from that twenty twenty
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one high. When could you hit that? I think it's going to take
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some time, you know, sometime meaning early next year, later this year.
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Okay, trajectory like this, I could see quarter one of quarter two
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next year potentially making that all time high once you break above there, which
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I think you've got a good shot of doing. The big place you're looking
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at is four hundred, which could be the market high of this bull run
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if you could break above there, we're looking at six fifty five. I
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mean, I know there's people that are talking about one thousand, twenty twenty
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eight hundred. I mean I would be the person to start getting out around
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four hundred nice three or four x I think is more than enough to ask
16:44
for here. Where would you go after that? Where would I go?
16:48
Coase timing? I get it, But would you start to just kind of
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pocket away ethereum or what I would well at that point in twenty twenty five,
16:53
I would be putting into safer assets, you know, paying off the
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mortgage, things of that, things in that nature. Take back into that
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way, Yeah, set five hundred. You know, it's safer assets at
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that point. But it does look good, you know, the last thing,
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the three day, I mean, it does look really good right here.
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All right, Avalanche made a big move. They're decreasing their staking requirements.
17:11
So this is going to be basically a reduction in cost of their subnet.
17:15
Simply meaning for those of you who follow us, we talk about Avalanche
17:18
a lot, this is just going to make it cheaper for you to operate
17:22
within a subnet, which I guess now is now one maybe as they rebrand,
17:26
but this could be good for Avalanche. Question is is it good for
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the token price? I think it will be. I think it definitely will
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be. What do you like right now on the chart, similar to a
17:37
well of price target A price target? Yeah for an extra so big price
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target's two hundred and thirty dollars and the higher end three hundred and sixty eight
17:45
dollars. These are pretty big five levels. And if we repeat the trajectory
17:48
that we saw from last October. You had to drop down, you know,
17:52
you hit kind of this big area right here, right around twenty one
17:53
dollars. You have one trajectory that's back up to one fifty. I believe
17:57
that's the previous all time high. You break above there, your big fib
18:00
levels to twenty and then three sixty. So this is one of them that
18:03
from where we are right now, the twenty five dollars range could make potentially
18:07
you know, eight x to twelve x on the high range of what we're
18:11
looking at and trigger away forming on the two week A lot of things look
18:15
good to you know, repeat that kind of director. I think it's going
18:17
to be take longer than it took here or being an extended situation, but
18:22
things look decent now. Don't get too afraid. If we do this scenario
18:26
that I was talking about earlier, if we bounce around, you know,
18:27
you make some lower lowser here, bounce around. Then in September, October,
18:30
November, then we start coming up. So it could take some time,
18:33
but I think there's a high likelihood that this is going to do well
18:37
in the coming six six to twelve months. Six to eighteen months. I
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like your analysis on avalanche. I can't believe that you are so bullish on
18:44
this. This is crazy. We've talked, we talked about these areas,
18:47
we talked about that twenty one dollars area hit it perfectly, so totally great
18:51
chain Link. A lot of people looking at this right now have been driving
18:55
in on this. I know quite a bit of our own Diamond Circle have
18:57
been acquiring quite a bit of chain Link over the past bit. We're now
19:02
on potentially seeing eight month high as price now starts a little bit of a
19:06
rebound. A couple of points within this around twelve to fifty is where it
19:11
was trading, which this pribace dropped about eighteen percent in the last month.
19:15
But there is a little bit showing right now that we could see some movement
19:18
coming on this. So a lot of link holders are accumulating right now on
19:23
chain Link. What do you think. I think it's good. I think
19:26
chain Link is going to continue to do well with like a lot of other
19:27
all coins. If you look right here, money flow is coming up.
19:30
Little trigger wave. It's a little tiny, little trigger wave there. Potentially
19:33
for me in the two week that could be momentous. If we look at
19:37
the weekly, that trigger wave didn't really play out. You did make a
19:40
lower low. But sometimes you know, you scare away a lot of people
19:44
like this, then the next one really brings you up. And if you
19:45
look at like the five day here, you're about to get a nice bowl
19:48
dive. And you don't see those too often. I mean, I'm trying
19:51
to just trying to look at the last time we saw a situation like that.
19:53
Oh man, it's been a long long time. Maybe you could argue
19:56
a little bit back in like January of twenty twenty. So I think we
20:00
have a long kind of trajectory upward from here, and if you look at
20:03
some point, I would say probably knit till later next year. Eighty dollars
20:07
could be really a big point. If you repeat kind of this trajectory,
20:11
which it's like you had your bull run intermission right here, your summer wall,
20:15
and you repeat that situation, you can get up by next year and
20:18
pray early next year potentially close to those all time highs. And then after
20:22
those all time highs would be what you would see in twenty twenty five,
20:26
potentially up to eighty dollars, maybe even one hundred who knows. All right,
20:29
so you're calling for a seven x on chain Link, a four x
20:33
on Salana. I think chain Link has more more trajectory. Chain Link and
20:37
Avalanche are definitely more I would think, all right, let's take a look,
20:41
let's wrap up here a little bit. I want to look at a
20:42
couple of things. Render of course, had some fud, fake news coming
20:47
out on the render dump. This was talking about a d list that was
20:51
not necessarily the case. There is a transitioning going over, which is the
20:55
render token. You know, rebranding is render. So when you look at
21:00
render and of course everything that's been happening with in Nvidia, we look at
21:03
near protocol, many of those kinds of you know, cloud compute type projects.
21:08
How do you like render? Right now? Lender is a little bit
21:11
more concerning than some other coins, but there still is some good stuff here.
21:15
If we look here on this two day look at this money flow back
21:18
in August at twenty three, hitting that same area about to get a bold
21:22
dive printing relatively soon. And if you look at that area, look at
21:23
that. I mean that trajectory upward was just incredible. And that's what I
21:27
think you may see some situation like this kind of repeat, assuming if that
21:32
we do hit a bottom here. But it is what I'll show you in
21:34
a second is there are some concerns that could be up to fifty five dollars.
21:37
So there is a potential for a ten X here I could see,
21:41
I mean on the high end, that would be the absolutely high end.
21:44
But I'm looking more for eighteen. We'll talk about eighteen dollars, twenty dollars.
21:47
Those are the big place we want to look at first. But overall,
21:51
I mean it is a little concerning. In the daily you do have
21:52
the LX potentially dropping down farther. But eh, I mean if you look
21:56
at that money flow in the two day, like I mentioned, I mean,
21:59
there's there's a good traject two and you continue forward here. I wouldn't
22:02
put all my eggs into render, but I think it's good define least a
22:03
small position in it. Yeah, okay, all right. Any tokens that
22:07
you're watching right now that you're thinking, hey, this could be on the
22:11
move, maybe I'm trying to position in Outside of the ones that we've talked
22:15
about today, the one that I've been looking at is probablymatic. I've been
22:18
looking at and if we look at the Mattic chart big area on the if
22:23
we uh go out right here, you just look at this chart area right
22:26
here, right around fifty cents, and I think we should be able to
22:29
keep that area just a giant area wok down below. And if we look
22:33
at the weekly here, you may get a nice anchor wave and potentially jump
22:37
all the way back up to a dollar twenty, so a double. If
22:40
we follow this trajectory here, you can get potentially a double into early next
22:45
year. And then if you break out of this whole wedge, this whole
22:48
area right here, let me just give you a technical target, it's going
22:51
to be a pretty high one. I would go from here to here.
22:53
That's the old all time highs that you would potentially see quarter two of next
22:57
year. And then potentially if you could break cup of that whole area you
23:00
would be looking at that's just the last thing I'll show you. You would
23:04
be probably looking at on the high end of ten dollars Mattic. Maybe that
23:07
would be a lot. From here, that would be a real lot.
23:10
But I mean the big area is going to be the ten x which is
23:12
right around you know, fib level is at four dollars and sixty cents,
23:15
so yeah, interesting, all right, Evan, you still have your trading
23:19
group, I do. Yeah, we still have our discount right, yeah.
23:23
Discount code is Paul Baron on Evanaldo dot com. There is a free
23:26
course and a paid course as well. Very good Welda dot com. You
23:30
guys, make sure and hit it out. Evan does some great livestream so
23:33
following him over on YouTube of course, and if you are not in the
23:37
Diamond Circle, make sure and get in that now. It's a great place
23:40
to get additional content. You can, of course just visit PBN, which
23:44
is paulbara Network, and what we're doing over there is we've got quite a
23:47
few things happening for new content. We have our new community tabs, so
23:52
you can get in there and start communicating with other Diamond Circle members. All
23:55
that's available to you, guys. Make sure and visit that. And of
23:59
course, last time, don't forget to follow me out there on x just
24:00
at Paul Baron. We'll get you next time. Right here on Techpath