Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Major Shake Ups That Affect The 2026 Midterms + Top 5 Things You Won’t Believe Were LEGAL In Politics
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- 1:51Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast.
- 1:55Speaker 1: I've got a bit I don't want to call it popari,
- 1:58Speaker 1: but in my focus before we get to my interview,
- 2:00Speaker 1: day is going to be very campaigny, if you will,
- 2:04Speaker 1: some interesting developments on the campaign trail for twenty twenty
- 2:07Speaker 1: six plus. I want to sort of do a quick
- 2:10Speaker 1: little side by side comparison to what the Republicans are
- 2:15Speaker 1: doing with the so called Save Act, their election reform
- 2:18Speaker 1: proposal and compare it to the failed Democratic version of this.
- 2:23Speaker 1: It was known as HR one back during the Biden era,
- 2:29Speaker 1: and of course it passed the House but didn't make
- 2:31Speaker 1: it out of the Senate. We're going to see a
- 2:33Speaker 1: similar situation. This bill is going to fail, and I'll explain.
- 2:37Speaker 1: But what you have as two parties are who both
- 2:41Speaker 1: created bills that were designed to fail, not designed to pass,
- 2:43Speaker 1: and I want to talk about.
- 2:44Speaker 2: That also this episode.
- 2:45Speaker 1: I have a fantastic top five list, or maybe a
- 2:50Speaker 1: depressing top five list, depending on your point of view,
- 2:53Speaker 1: but it's a fun one, I think.
- 2:54Speaker 2: Actually i'll tell.
- 2:58Speaker 1: You so in case you really are so excited you
- 3:00Speaker 1: want to quickly jump to it, which.
- 3:02Speaker 2: Is the top five.
- 3:06Speaker 1: Laws that used to be that you won't believe used
- 3:08Speaker 1: to be legal when it came to politics, and then
- 3:11Speaker 1: a top five list of things that we ought to
- 3:13Speaker 1: make that fifty years from now someone's going to say,
- 3:17Speaker 1: I can't believe you guys, let this that this was
- 3:19Speaker 1: as legal as long as it was.
- 3:22Speaker 2: So we'll get to that.
- 3:23Speaker 1: Do a few questions, but bottom line are pretty robust episodes.
- 3:27Speaker 1: Let me start with sort of the state of politics
- 3:30Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, because We've had a lot of movement.
- 3:34Speaker 1: Probably the most significant disaster has been averted for the Republicans.
- 3:40Speaker 1: And what do I mean? Susan Collins finally announced that
- 3:45Speaker 1: she is definitely going to run for reelection. Had there
- 3:47Speaker 1: had been certainly she had done, she had taken a
- 3:52Speaker 1: while to confirm that she was running for reelection. There
- 3:55Speaker 1: was starting to become some growing concern in some Republicans
- 4:00Speaker 1: circles that the the the entire national electoral atmosphere was
- 4:07Speaker 1: getting to her. That look, did she want to run
- 4:11Speaker 1: in what is the most uphill race she's ever had
- 4:13Speaker 1: to run? Right, She's never been simultaneously unpopular with Republicans
- 4:18Speaker 1: and unpopular with Democrats. She certainly has has made some
- 4:22Speaker 1: conservatives angry in the days, but it's usually come the
- 4:26Speaker 1: loss of that vote has come with the gain of
- 4:28Speaker 1: votes of center or even center left voters in the
- 4:30Speaker 1: state of Maine. But since her Cavanaugh, since since her
- 4:37Speaker 1: Cavanaugh support and a few other things, she is in
- 4:40Speaker 1: some ways, you know, used to be Lisa Murkowski in
- 4:43Speaker 1: Susan Collins, it was almost they were interchangeable. They're not
- 4:45Speaker 1: so interchangeable anymore. I think Lisa Murkowski really is more
- 4:49Speaker 1: of a political independent than a partisan. I think she
- 4:53Speaker 1: almost says it herself. She coxes with Republicans because that's
- 4:55Speaker 1: where she's caucused. You know, one of the more intriguing
- 5:01Speaker 1: potential post election storylines I think of twenty twenty six
- 5:06Speaker 1: is if Democrats net three seats and it's a fifty
- 5:09Speaker 1: to fifty Senate with Jadvan's breaking the tie. I promise you,
- 5:13Speaker 1: before that Senate is sworn in, Chuck Schumer and other
- 5:17Speaker 1: Democrats are going to be all over Lisa Murkowski to
- 5:22Speaker 1: see if they can get her to switch parties. So,
- 5:25Speaker 1: you know, there's always been a small part of me
- 5:27Speaker 1: that thinks that Democrats actually have to need three Senate seats,
- 5:30Speaker 1: get to fifty to fifty, then at that point they
- 5:33Speaker 1: might be able to convince Lisa Murkowski to hand power
- 5:37Speaker 1: over to the Democrats.
- 5:39Speaker 2: Will that happen? Unlikely? Is that more probable possible than
- 5:44Speaker 2: people realize? Yes, it is.
- 5:47Speaker 1: She herself has opened that door, Lisa Murkowski, that is so.
- 5:50Speaker 1: The point is with Susan Collins. Look, what's interesting about
- 5:57Speaker 1: the Susan Collins development is the fact that Donald Trump
- 6:01Speaker 1: will simultaneously complain about Susan Collins when she votes against
- 6:06Speaker 1: him on certain things, but does not get so angry
- 6:09Speaker 1: that he searches for a challenger.
- 6:11Speaker 2: Right.
- 6:12Speaker 1: He found a primary challenger to Murkowski, right, and that's
- 6:16Speaker 1: when she ended up running and winning as a write in.
- 6:19Speaker 1: And you know, there was tea party movement. They've tried
- 6:22Speaker 1: to get rid of Makowski and they have failed. He
- 6:25Speaker 1: has never done that with Susan Collins. It's almost as
- 6:28Speaker 1: if even though there's sort of a mini Trump in
- 6:31Speaker 1: that state in Paula Page, the former governor who's running
- 6:33Speaker 1: for the what is now an open main second congressional
- 6:37Speaker 1: district with Jared Golden not seeking reelection, and yet that
- 6:42Speaker 1: is never that it is. It's fascinating that Republicans in
- 6:49Speaker 1: the Senate on the campaign side of things, Tim Scott
- 6:51Speaker 1: John Thune in particular, have been able to get him
- 6:54Speaker 1: to be pragmatic about Susan Collins. But really, nowhere else
- 7:00Speaker 1: does he get this pragmatic.
- 7:02Speaker 2: Right.
- 7:03Speaker 1: He has not been this pragmatic in Louisiana, He's not
- 7:06Speaker 1: been this pragmatic in Texas, but he's willing to be
- 7:08Speaker 1: this pragmatic. Wasn't willing to be this pragmatic in North Carolina,
- 7:12Speaker 1: but he was willing to be this pragmatic in May,
- 7:16Speaker 1: perhaps they realized she is the only candidate that can
- 7:20Speaker 1: remotely have a chance at winning. I'm pretty pessimistic about
- 7:24Speaker 1: her chances because she is entering this campaign with sort
- 7:29Speaker 1: of the she's acquiring the same problem that Mitch McConnell
- 7:34Speaker 1: and Chuck Schumer are both experiencing in poll numbers to
- 7:37Speaker 1: this day, and that is the base of her own
- 7:41Speaker 1: party is not happy with her, and the base of
- 7:43Speaker 1: the other party is very angry with her. Right, Mitch
- 7:47Speaker 1: McConnell's numbers are extraordinarily low, or were extraordinarily low, because
- 7:51Speaker 1: he simultaneously had the entire Democratic Party hating him and
- 7:56Speaker 1: the Trump wing of the Republican Party not liking him,
- 7:58Speaker 1: so it made his negatives look even more. Chuck Schumer
- 8:01Speaker 1: is starting to experience that, where the base of the
- 8:03Speaker 1: Democratic Party is no fan of Chuck Schumer these days,
- 8:06Speaker 1: and they are more likely to rate him negatively than positively,
- 8:10Speaker 1: And of course the entire Republican Party is pretty anti Schumer,
- 8:13Speaker 1: so it in some ways makes his numbers look worse.
- 8:15Speaker 1: And that's the situation that I wonder while she's I
- 8:20Speaker 1: don't think Susan Collins has got the super negatives on
- 8:23Speaker 1: the right, she does so on the left. And this
- 8:27Speaker 1: is the first time where I don't think she starts
- 8:29Speaker 1: you know, she starts easily with the lowest personal favorable
- 8:32Speaker 1: rating that she's ever had in trying to seek reelection.
- 8:35Speaker 1: So I think this is an uphill battle for her.
- 8:37Speaker 1: But the fact of the matter is, had she not
- 8:39Speaker 1: sought reelection, the seat's done.
- 8:42Speaker 2: You know.
- 8:42Speaker 1: If anything, it just becomes a you know, it's the
- 8:45Speaker 1: big primary fight between Graham Platner and Janet Mills. Now
- 8:48Speaker 1: that's not the case, and it makes you know, this
- 8:52Speaker 1: is probably a good day for Janet Mills. If there
- 8:56Speaker 1: is a if there's a growing belief that that Grand
- 9:00Speaker 1: Platner's mouth has gotten him in too much trouble and
- 9:04Speaker 1: it provides too much baggage, and that it's the wrong.
- 9:08Speaker 2: The wrong.
- 9:10Speaker 1: Profile to be running against Collins, you know that there
- 9:15Speaker 1: will be the conventional wisdom crowd will gravitate more to Mills.
- 9:19Speaker 1: Now I'm sort of torn on this, right, I think
- 9:24Speaker 1: there is an out I think we're in an outsider
- 9:27Speaker 1: insider phase, and if you're the outsider, you're in a
- 9:31Speaker 1: better position than if you're the insider, right, And in
- 9:33Speaker 1: some ways Grant Platner could run the campaign he runs
- 9:37Speaker 1: against Mills. It's the same campaign he runs against Collins.
- 9:40Speaker 1: And my guess is that's the campaign he tries to do.
- 9:43Speaker 1: As a primary voter. Mills has a tougher job. She's
- 9:46Speaker 1: got to both defend a little bit of her own
- 9:48Speaker 1: incumbency and then at the same time, you know, does
- 9:52Speaker 1: she is it just purely a character campaign against Platner,
- 9:57Speaker 1: which doesn't always work in competitive prime, So it's it's complicated.
- 10:03Speaker 1: I think it certainly will help her financially, help her organizationally,
- 10:06Speaker 1: that's Janet Mills. But if you're Platner, you do get
- 10:10Speaker 1: to put the campaign together. That was sort of where
- 10:14Speaker 1: it's very much emblematic of what Trump did in sixteen, right.
- 10:17Speaker 1: He ran against both the Bushes and the Clintons all
- 10:19Speaker 1: at the same time, so it gave him a little
- 10:22Speaker 1: extra appeal from that sort of outsider. And you know,
- 10:26Speaker 1: I always think about the main independent as sort of
- 10:28Speaker 1: the In my head, I always think of the Petrick
- 10:31Speaker 1: farm guy, that the cranky and this is I'm going
- 10:34Speaker 1: to date myself, but some of you will remember the
- 10:37Speaker 1: sad campaign of the cranky old man who used to
- 10:40Speaker 1: sell Petrick Farm cookies. That's you know that you know,
- 10:44Speaker 1: kind of a crank and I always think of the
- 10:46Speaker 1: New England crank a little bit, and it's, you know,
- 10:49Speaker 1: that's the that's the main swing voter. There's a little
- 10:52Speaker 1: crankiness to him. And I do think Platner and Collins
- 10:56Speaker 1: both know how to appeal to that cranky, cranky person.
- 10:59Speaker 1: But I do think that that's so it's it's, you know,
- 11:04Speaker 1: is this is this a left right election or is
- 11:06Speaker 1: this an inside outside election right? And I think if
- 11:09Speaker 1: it's the inside outside thing is what I think is
- 11:14Speaker 1: is Platner's is Platiner's strength there, But either way it
- 11:19Speaker 1: the fact is, you know, Republicans are breathing a huge
- 11:23Speaker 1: sigh of relief, especially given in a week where the
- 11:26Speaker 1: developments in Texas are just terrible for them. Right, You've
- 11:29Speaker 1: got Ken Paxton getting the endorsement of the Turning Point organization,
- 11:34Speaker 1: just giving him his first sort of first sort of
- 11:38Speaker 1: official endorsement from more of the Trump wing of the party.
- 11:42Speaker 1: Trump hasn't weighed in yet, but it is it is,
- 11:47Speaker 1: you know, I I am I am surprised Turning Point
- 11:50Speaker 1: wants to associate themselves with Ken Paxton and his questionable
- 11:53Speaker 1: character not just personal morals, professional ethics like that. I I,
- 11:59Speaker 1: you know, I thought they might stay out considering how
- 12:04Speaker 1: competitive this primary is in but that maybe just driven
- 12:07Speaker 1: by a rank and file, could be driven by donors.
- 12:08Speaker 2: But either way, it's a big.
- 12:09Speaker 1: Get for Paxxton because it kind of like he hasn't
- 12:13Speaker 1: gotten many endorsements. He seems to me like an illegitimate
- 12:16Speaker 1: candidate for office, given that he was impeached although he
- 12:20Speaker 1: never was not convicted, but the stuff around him is
- 12:24Speaker 1: really some ugly stuff. So I am mildly surprised that
- 12:31Speaker 1: they went with him, though I know that as far
- 12:33Speaker 1: as the type of the way he wants to pursue
- 12:37Speaker 1: conservative a little bit of that pugilistic, aggressive nature of
- 12:40Speaker 1: politics is something I think that appeals to Turning Point,
- 12:44Speaker 1: the Turning Point crowd a little bit. But I thought
- 12:46Speaker 1: maybe they wouldn't want to be associated with what is
- 12:49Speaker 1: Paxton's really questionable morals and ethics on that one.
- 12:53Speaker 2: But look, that's either way.
- 12:57Speaker 1: Republicans do have a mess on their hands in Texas,
- 12:59Speaker 1: and the only thing that they've got going from in
- 13:01Speaker 1: Texas is that the Democrats have a bit of a mess,
- 13:04Speaker 1: and the last thing they need is a racially divisive
- 13:08Speaker 1: primary on that side, and it's tall Rico's trying to
- 13:13Speaker 1: calm the waters. There after he was quoted as insulting
- 13:17Speaker 1: Colin already a former Senate candidate who's now running for
- 13:20Speaker 1: a congressional seat. And look already I think there was
- 13:25Speaker 1: some hope pre slight from tallar Rico that already would
- 13:29Speaker 1: have supported tol Rico. I think ideologically he fit there.
- 13:33Speaker 1: But now he's a Jasmine Crockett supporter, so you do
- 13:36Speaker 1: have that mess there. The other interesting development over the
- 13:39Speaker 1: week is Alexander Vindman, the retirement retired Army lieutenant colonel,
- 13:45Speaker 1: kicked off his Florida Senate bid. He's, of course, he
- 13:51Speaker 1: was the whistleblower that helped launch the first impeachment on
- 13:55Speaker 1: Trump when it came to the quid pro quote that
- 13:58Speaker 1: Trump was demanding from Zelensk during twenty eighteen twenty nineteen.
- 14:07Speaker 1: You know, we'll see I don't think of Vinman as
- 14:09Speaker 1: a Floridian, but you know that is not We've had Floridians,
- 14:13Speaker 1: you know, are Floridians are used to people sort of
- 14:18Speaker 1: parachuting into campaigns that you didn't know they were Florida natives.
- 14:22Speaker 1: You're like, oh, I didn't know Rick Scott was a
- 14:25Speaker 1: Floridian or I didn't know, you know.
- 14:27Speaker 2: So it is not unusual for that. And there's.
- 14:31Speaker 1: There can be a penalty in a primary maybe if
- 14:35Speaker 1: it's a local race, but there's less of a penalty
- 14:37Speaker 1: for sort of becoming a new Floridian on the state
- 14:42Speaker 1: wide race. It's same in Arizona, Nevada. It's like the
- 14:44Speaker 1: states where there are a lot of people who aren't
- 14:47Speaker 1: native who move, who choose to move there. You know, politically,
- 14:51Speaker 1: that's a problem if you're a newcomer in a Michigan
- 14:54Speaker 1: or even in a South Carolina or a Mississippi or
- 14:57Speaker 1: an Arkansas. It is not a penalty if you're a
- 14:59Speaker 1: Floridian in Arizona. And I mean, look at Arizona senators,
- 15:03Speaker 1: most of them.
- 15:04Speaker 2: You know.
- 15:05Speaker 1: John McCain you know, was hit with being a carpetbagger
- 15:08Speaker 1: when he first ran, and he said, you're right. The
- 15:10Speaker 1: place I've had residents the longest was in the Hanoi Hilton.
- 15:13Speaker 1: So you know, it sort of blew up in their
- 15:16Speaker 1: face when they hit. Then Mark Kelly was able to Dodge.
- 15:19Speaker 1: You know that he was a newcomer as well. It's
- 15:22Speaker 1: sort of an accept you know, it's accepted there because
- 15:25Speaker 1: there's a lot of residents in those states that choose
- 15:28Speaker 1: to move there. But Vinman can raise some money nationally,
- 15:32Speaker 1: and he might be able to raise a ton of money.
- 15:33Speaker 1: And I you know, I think this is one of
- 15:35Speaker 1: those on the on the watch list because you do
- 15:42Speaker 1: have an appointed senator situation there in Ashley Moody, and
- 15:47Speaker 1: that's you know, she's just not as well known yet.
- 15:49Speaker 1: So let's see if Vinman can raise money closer to
- 15:56Speaker 1: how val Demmings did against Marco Ruby. And now, look,
- 15:58Speaker 1: demy'sn't do well against Rubio at the ballot box, but
- 16:01Speaker 1: financially she raised quite a bit of money. Whether Vinmin
- 16:05Speaker 1: can do that is he sort of is it too
- 16:08Speaker 1: old of an impeachment for people to care in the
- 16:11Speaker 1: blue donor world.
- 16:14Speaker 2: We'll see.
- 16:14Speaker 1: But that's a that's an intriguing potential development, and it's
- 16:19Speaker 1: sort of like I said, you sort of keep an
- 16:20Speaker 1: eye on it. You check in, you see if it
- 16:23Speaker 1: if it has much. Look, Vinmin is the profile of
- 16:27Speaker 1: the type of Democrat that can win in light red states.
- 16:31Speaker 1: I think the fair question is is Florida's still a
- 16:33Speaker 1: light red state. I think it still is, but we're
- 16:36Speaker 1: going to we'll find out this cycle how light red
- 16:39Speaker 1: it is.
- 16:39Speaker 2: Right.
- 16:39Speaker 1: I expect Republicans to win most of those state wide offices,
- 16:43Speaker 1: but is it with fifty two fifty three or is
- 16:45Speaker 1: it with fifty seven to fifty eight?
- 16:47Speaker 2: Right? And that tells you light red dark red? Right?
- 16:49Speaker 1: In a national environment like this, that's going to have
- 16:52Speaker 1: the win that the Democrats back. You know, it's if
- 16:57Speaker 1: if democrat. If Democrats can't hold Republicans to the low
- 17:00Speaker 1: fifties in an environment like this in Florida, then maybe
- 17:04Speaker 1: it will be time to write the state off for
- 17:06Speaker 1: state wide elections. So he is a good profile of
- 17:09Speaker 1: a candidate that you'ld be looking for on that fund.
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- 20:03Speaker 1: percent off. And then one other development that sort of
- 20:10Speaker 1: builds on what I said on Monday and I turned
- 20:14Speaker 1: it into my Substack newsletter lead on Tuesday is the
- 20:19Speaker 1: fact that the House. I think the House has slipped
- 20:22Speaker 1: away from the Republicans. I think the question now isn't
- 20:24Speaker 1: whether Democrats get control of the House. The question is
- 20:27Speaker 1: whether it's by a big margin or a small margin.
- 20:30Speaker 1: And when you just look, it's just more the data
- 20:33Speaker 1: is screaming it.
- 20:34Speaker 2: Right.
- 20:34Speaker 1: We've hit fifty one open seats, right, thirty of them
- 20:37Speaker 1: or Republican open seats. Twenty of them are Democratic open seats.
- 20:40Speaker 1: But the fact that we've crossed fifty this is only
- 20:43Speaker 1: a third time ever we've had this many retirements, and
- 20:45Speaker 1: the other two times saw massive turnover and massive gains
- 20:51Speaker 1: for the out party, if you will, including a flip
- 20:55Speaker 1: in eighteen for the Democrats and a near and then
- 20:57Speaker 1: essentially what happened in ninety two when you had sixty
- 21:00Speaker 1: five open seats, and I'm going to get to that
- 21:03Speaker 1: a little bit later in this broadcast, that it's still
- 21:07Speaker 1: led to huge churn, which of course gave Republicans the
- 21:09Speaker 1: momentum to end up picking flipping the House for the
- 21:13Speaker 1: first time in forty odd years come nineteen ninety four.
- 21:16Speaker 1: So and when you look there, I've put some great
- 21:20Speaker 1: charts in the substact you used to take a look
- 21:22Speaker 1: at it of just everything is pointing towards a Democratic flip.
- 21:28Speaker 1: The only thing preventing this at this point is something
- 21:32Speaker 1: changes the entire political environment right a massive And you know,
- 21:36Speaker 1: when you look at the two exceptions of when the
- 21:41Speaker 1: party in the White House in the last sort of
- 21:44Speaker 1: fifty years that the party in the White House actually
- 21:46Speaker 1: did well in a midterm, you had two outside events
- 21:49Speaker 1: that totally scrambled the sort of the normal pattern of
- 21:53Speaker 1: American politics. Ninety eight and the Monica Lewinsky scandal, an
- 21:58Speaker 1: impeachment attempt, which Boomer hanged on Republicans and ended up
- 22:01Speaker 1: helping Democrats. And then twenty oh two, the first election
- 22:05Speaker 1: that we held post nine to eleven, which where George W.
- 22:09Speaker 1: Bush was still sitting over sixty percent. Essentially, both Bill
- 22:12Speaker 1: Clinton and George W. Bush in those two midterms had
- 22:15Speaker 1: approval ratings in the sixties. So then you have to
- 22:17Speaker 1: ask yourself, what would it take for Donald Trump's approval rating?
- 22:21Speaker 1: Forget the sixties, what would it take for him to
- 22:23Speaker 1: get to fifty or fifty one? Well, the only thing
- 22:26Speaker 1: you can think of is some sort of crisis where
- 22:28Speaker 1: there's a rally around the flag effect, and he certainly
- 22:32Speaker 1: makes it a little bit harder I think, for independence
- 22:34Speaker 1: to rally around him, But it would have to be
- 22:37Speaker 1: something outside an extraordinary event. The point is all the
- 22:41Speaker 1: data here is showing. The only thing we don't know
- 22:44Speaker 1: is it a small Democratic majority is.
- 22:46Speaker 2: Are going to be a big one.
- 22:47Speaker 1: And what's interesting there is Democrats are starting to feel cocky.
- 22:50Speaker 1: The d tripleC just on Tuesday morning added five new
- 22:56Speaker 1: seats to their target list, and they were all seats
- 22:59Speaker 1: that Trump won by double digits. In these new seats
- 23:07Speaker 1: that they added, including Ryan Zinkey's seat in Montana, which
- 23:11Speaker 1: I think is an interesting one, a more rural, the
- 23:15Speaker 1: old Tim Wall's seat that went Republican in Minnesota's first district,
- 23:20Speaker 1: the open Charleston seat, the Nancy May seat in South Carolina,
- 23:24Speaker 1: one which was held by a Democrat a couple of
- 23:28Speaker 1: times this century Joe Cunningham, a retired member of Congress there,
- 23:32Speaker 1: but it actually had been redistricted and made a bit
- 23:34Speaker 1: more Republican. So the fact that they think they can
- 23:37Speaker 1: get that on the ballot and then they throw a
- 23:38Speaker 1: Virginia seat in there, which of course Virginia is all
- 23:40Speaker 1: getting scrambled, is the Democrats are redrawing a map that's
- 23:43Speaker 1: going to make it very beneficial to them.
- 23:46Speaker 2: But the point is is that.
- 23:49Speaker 1: When you look at this political environment we've seen the
- 23:51Speaker 1: special elections, I do think any district that Donald Trump
- 23:56Speaker 1: carried with fifty nine percent or less is theoretically in
- 24:00Speaker 1: play as long as his approval ratings are sitting at
- 24:02Speaker 1: forty four and below. And that's the situation we're staring at,
- 24:07Speaker 1: which is why you see Democrats doing that. I think
- 24:09Speaker 1: the thing to watch for on the Republican side is
- 24:13Speaker 1: when do they get to when do they get to
- 24:15Speaker 1: the point that Democrats got to in twenty twenty two,
- 24:18Speaker 1: There was a point where Democrats knew they were going
- 24:20Speaker 1: to lose the House.
- 24:22Speaker 2: So then it became.
- 24:25Speaker 1: A mitigation, Right, you were just mitigating your losses. And
- 24:29Speaker 1: they started messing around on Republican primaries and they got
- 24:32Speaker 1: some really bad nomine helped get some really bad Republican
- 24:35Speaker 1: nominees into general elections, which allowed them to win in
- 24:39Speaker 1: some places that they probably wouldn't have won had literally
- 24:42Speaker 1: there just been a generic Republican on the ticket. I
- 24:44Speaker 1: think you're going to see because the only thing standing
- 24:47Speaker 1: in the way of Democrats having a big night versus
- 24:49Speaker 1: a small knight is if they have flawed nominees, and
- 24:54Speaker 1: if they somehow the nominees are so flawed that Republicans
- 24:57Speaker 1: can make those flaws part of the general election conversation. Right,
- 25:02Speaker 1: the more this is a referendum on Trump, and the
- 25:05Speaker 1: more generic the messaging is on a national front, advantage Democrats.
- 25:10Speaker 1: If Republicans can somehow and it may only be a
- 25:14Speaker 1: race by race situation, but you want to put yourself
- 25:18Speaker 1: and what Democrats did in twenty two by mitigating, by
- 25:21Speaker 1: getting involved in Republican primaries, they were able to limit
- 25:25Speaker 1: their losses and make both twenty four and twenty six
- 25:27Speaker 1: biable campaigns to try to win control of Congress. That's
- 25:32Speaker 1: the situation Republicans find they they can't afford to let
- 25:35Speaker 1: this slip away. They can't afford Democrats picking up twenty
- 25:39Speaker 1: five to forty seats, right, because that gives them padding
- 25:43Speaker 1: going into twenty eight and it probably cements a House
- 25:46Speaker 1: majority at least for two cycles. I know we've been
- 25:49Speaker 1: very tumultuous over the last over the century. In fact,
- 25:52Speaker 1: if the House changes hands again, this will be the
- 25:54Speaker 1: fifth time the House has changed hands this century. The
- 25:58Speaker 1: House only changed hands twice in fifty in the last
- 26:01Speaker 1: fifty years of the twentieth century, so we are definitely
- 26:04Speaker 1: living in more tumultuous times. Finally, I want to close
- 26:08Speaker 1: a little bit on the absurdity. It's sort of and
- 26:13Speaker 1: I'm going to come at this from my crankiness about
- 26:19Speaker 1: about politics and about congressional politics, which is, you know,
- 26:24Speaker 1: do you are you trying to pass a bill or
- 26:25Speaker 1: are you trying to raise money? And when the Democrats
- 26:29Speaker 1: had there, and what I want to do is I
- 26:30Speaker 1: want to do a little comparison here. Right, the Republicans
- 26:34Speaker 1: are trying to shove through this SAVE Act. It's called
- 26:37Speaker 1: the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, and it's been boiled
- 26:41Speaker 1: down to just this is about voter ID. It's not
- 26:43Speaker 1: about voter I D if this were simply about voter ID,
- 26:47Speaker 1: like should you have to show voter ID at the
- 26:49Speaker 1: polls to get your ballot? Which I do in the
- 26:51Speaker 1: state of Virginia. Quite a few states already mandate this.
- 26:54Speaker 1: Let's say you said that at the pedigram and it
- 26:57Speaker 1: was just a standalone bill, not you have to produce
- 26:59Speaker 1: a certificate. I'm just saying, just produce your you know,
- 27:03Speaker 1: a passport or driver's license or you know ID before
- 27:07Speaker 1: you get your ballot. You get bipartisan support for that.
- 27:12Speaker 1: But that is not what this bill does. This bill
- 27:14Speaker 1: wants to complicate the ability to even register to vote. Right, Look,
- 27:18Speaker 1: it's difficult to go get a driver's license and you've
- 27:20Speaker 1: got to prove you've got to bring a birth certificate.
- 27:22Speaker 1: I remember that's the last I think the last time
- 27:24Speaker 1: you bring a birth certificate, driver's license, and potentially to
- 27:29Speaker 1: get a passport. We've never had it be used to
- 27:33Speaker 1: try to get a voter registration card and so that that's,
- 27:39Speaker 1: you know, among the things it's trying to do. And
- 27:42Speaker 1: the thing is is that both parties took their voter bills, right,
- 27:45Speaker 1: The Democrats essentially wanted to what they really wanted to
- 27:49Speaker 1: do with their first HR one, Right, what was the
- 27:51Speaker 1: thing that had the most support, But what had most
- 27:53Speaker 1: support is to create a minimum amount of windows for
- 27:59Speaker 1: early voting in all fifty states.
- 28:01Speaker 2: Right.
- 28:01Speaker 1: You're not mandating that it has to be this way
- 28:03Speaker 1: in all but a minimum like fifteen days. That you
- 28:06Speaker 1: got to provide a fifteen days of early voting windows.
- 28:10Speaker 1: But then how you go about doing it is up
- 28:12Speaker 1: to you. Do you want to do it in person,
- 28:13Speaker 1: you want to do it, whatever it is. But they
- 28:16Speaker 1: threw in this other stuff, right, Democrats wanted to do
- 28:19Speaker 1: public funding of elections, which was not very popular. They
- 28:22Speaker 1: wanted to throw in other things like that. And that's
- 28:25Speaker 1: the thing. Both parties are using these election bills to
- 28:30Speaker 1: put other stuff in there. They're not interested in actually
- 28:33Speaker 1: passing and actually passing it. Instead, there's all these poison pills.
- 28:43Speaker 1: I think the if Democrats had simply pursued and this
- 28:48Speaker 1: is where get this is where can't we have some
- 28:53Speaker 1: pragmatism in any of our politics, in any of our
- 28:56Speaker 1: election rules. If you gave a bill that did the following, Okay,
- 29:02Speaker 1: you had to show voter ID to go to the polls,
- 29:05Speaker 1: and then you did what democrats want, which is every
- 29:07Speaker 1: voter in every state would have the right to vote
- 29:09Speaker 1: by mail for any reason, no excuse absentee voting, and
- 29:13Speaker 1: fifteen days of early voting. You do that, and maybe
- 29:16Speaker 1: you agree that, Hey, and you've got to get your
- 29:18Speaker 1: battle in by election day. There's no there's no fudging
- 29:21Speaker 1: that right. You got to put that you'd vote I
- 29:23Speaker 1: D there is. You know, in the old days of
- 29:27Speaker 1: give each side gets something that they care about, but
- 29:33Speaker 1: that that isn't what anybody's interested in. Nobody seems to
- 29:37Speaker 1: be that interested in actually passing any of these reforms.
- 29:41Speaker 1: And the only way you're going to get reforms like
- 29:42Speaker 1: this is if you do one at a time and
- 29:44Speaker 1: you start from the middle out, and you know, and
- 29:47Speaker 1: you start from sort of common sense pragmatism. People want
- 29:52Speaker 1: convenience voting. We're very busy. They want that, and they do, Hey,
- 29:57Speaker 1: we show our ID almost everywhere else. They don't think
- 30:00Speaker 1: that that's an extra burden. But again, right, this is
- 30:03Speaker 1: not about showing your birth certificate, and that is so
- 30:08Speaker 1: the point is is that there's a there's a path
- 30:10Speaker 1: here to pass sort of pragmatic, reasonable reforms that both
- 30:17Speaker 1: create more conveniences to voting. And I know some philosophically
- 30:20Speaker 1: think other you shouldn't make voting convenient, right, but hey,
- 30:25Speaker 1: you know, we live in a very, very large and
- 30:29Speaker 1: diverse country. And I promise you if you put it,
- 30:32Speaker 1: if you made everybody vote on the same day, it
- 30:34Speaker 1: would take even longer for election days to finish, it
- 30:37Speaker 1: would take even longer to count our votes, and there
- 30:40Speaker 1: would be a lot more distrust to it. So there
- 30:44Speaker 1: is a path to do some common sense reforms. If
- 30:47Speaker 1: Republicans really cared about voter ID the most, as much
- 30:50Speaker 1: they say it, they do it as a standalone vote.
- 30:54Speaker 1: And if Democrats cared enough just simply about allowing for
- 30:57Speaker 1: more access to voting so that there's more opportunity for
- 31:01Speaker 1: vote by mail and more opportunity for early voting, they'd
- 31:03Speaker 1: have made it stand alone. But they didn't make it.
- 31:06Speaker 1: Neither side made it stand alone. The poison pills that
- 31:10Speaker 1: were involved in either the Save Act or the HR
- 31:13Speaker 1: one were features, not bucks. And yes, you can jam
- 31:16Speaker 1: it through in the House because the House is always
- 31:18Speaker 1: the most partisan side for either party, and it is
- 31:22Speaker 1: the Senate where you have a harder time doing this.
- 31:24Speaker 1: But if you did this piecemeal, you'd have a better
- 31:26Speaker 1: idea and you you might have a stronger leg to
- 31:31Speaker 1: stand on when you accuse the other side of not
- 31:33Speaker 1: being interested in these issues. This episode of the Chuck
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- 33:11Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from
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- 34:47Speaker 1: is something you should really think about it, especially if
- 34:50Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. So let's let me move
- 34:56Speaker 1: to my top five list. And it's inspired by you know,
- 35:00Speaker 1: So when I was going through all of my research
- 35:03Speaker 1: on how often, you know, the largest retirement classes we've
- 35:07Speaker 1: had in midterm elections, and I was reminded that as
- 35:12Speaker 1: large the fact that we'd crossed fifty retirements and it
- 35:15Speaker 1: was only the third time we'd ever done it. The
- 35:17Speaker 1: two times in midterms right twenty eighteen we had fifty five.
- 35:21Speaker 1: We're at fifty one encounting now for twenty twenty six.
- 35:25Speaker 1: But the high watermark was nineteen ninety two. That was
- 35:28Speaker 1: a presidential year, and it was sixty five. And if
- 35:34Speaker 1: you recall I said, you know, there were sort of
- 35:36Speaker 1: three things that were driving so many retirements that cycle. One,
- 35:41Speaker 1: it was a redistricting year, and it was no ordinary
- 35:44Speaker 1: redistricting year. It was the first cycle where the Justice
- 35:48Speaker 1: Department prioritized majority minority reapportionment. So in the South they
- 35:56Speaker 1: guaranteed a lot more African American representation and in the
- 36:01Speaker 1: Southwest Latino representation, and the Justice Department was approving or
- 36:06Speaker 1: disapproving these maps based on that. Well, that really shook
- 36:09Speaker 1: up it. It shook up a lot of different maps,
- 36:11Speaker 1: drove a lot of retirements. The second thing that drove
- 36:14Speaker 1: a bunch of incumbents into retirement was scandal, and that
- 36:18Speaker 1: there was a couple of unique They were basically members
- 36:22Speaker 1: of Congress were able to write checks without having to
- 36:24Speaker 1: prove they had the cash to do it, like this
- 36:26Speaker 1: special House bank and members were bouncing checks where some
- 36:29Speaker 1: guys bounced over seven hundred checks and it was just crazy.
- 36:33Speaker 1: There was also a House post Office scandal where people
- 36:35Speaker 1: were getting free postage members of Congress free postage and
- 36:38Speaker 1: then somehow like parlaying it into cash elsewhere. It's what
- 36:44Speaker 1: was the downfall of one Dan Rostenkowski, the one time
- 36:48Speaker 1: powerful chairman the Ways and Means Committee, an old Chicago Democrat.
- 36:53Speaker 1: But there was a third reason that drove a bunch
- 36:57Speaker 1: of incumbents into retirement, and that was nineteen ninety two
- 37:03Speaker 1: was going to be the last year a sitting member
- 37:06Speaker 1: of Congress, House or Senate could retire and take whatever
- 37:11Speaker 1: leftover camp campaign money they had and convert it to
- 37:15Speaker 1: personal finances. They could just take whatever whatever campaign money
- 37:19Speaker 1: was left and it was theirs. They didn't have to
- 37:21Speaker 1: give it back to donors. They didn't have to, you know,
- 37:24Speaker 1: give it to the party, give it to a pack,
- 37:27Speaker 1: or open up their own pack and create a political committee.
- 37:30Speaker 1: They could simply just convert it to their and so
- 37:33Speaker 1: quite a few members had. You know, at the time,
- 37:36Speaker 1: having a million dollars in your account was a huge
- 37:39Speaker 1: deal back then, thought hey, I got this brand new
- 37:42Speaker 1: retirement account, you know, in addition to their congressional pension.
- 37:47Speaker 1: I remember South Florida lost three I think long time
- 37:51Speaker 1: or at least two long time members of Congress, and
- 37:54Speaker 1: I can't out but wonder how much that contributed to it.
- 37:58Speaker 1: Bill Layman and Dante Facel or two of the guys
- 38:01Speaker 1: that took off in ninety two. Claude Pepper kept going
- 38:04Speaker 1: me he could have probably walked away with money, but
- 38:08Speaker 1: he was actually he had already passed away, I admit
- 38:10Speaker 1: claud Pepper by ninety My bad on that. Claude Pepper
- 38:12Speaker 1: was eight. He passed away in eighty nine. But you
- 38:15Speaker 1: had I think two other members who chose not to
- 38:18Speaker 1: seek reelection in one of the perks of that. So
- 38:20Speaker 1: it made me think, you know what would be good
- 38:23Speaker 1: a top five list of you won't believe this used
- 38:26Speaker 1: to be legal in American politics, And it's just a
- 38:32Speaker 1: good reminder that reform is always reactive in American politics.
- 38:38Speaker 1: We don't outlaw abuses in advance, We don't think about
- 38:41Speaker 1: what could be abused. We wait for the abuse to happen,
- 38:44Speaker 1: then we pass a law regulation to try to prevent
- 38:46Speaker 1: it in the future. So with that in mind, there's
- 38:50Speaker 1: my top five list of things that were once completely legal,
- 38:54Speaker 1: followed by a second list that may someday make future
- 38:56Speaker 1: Americans say, wait, they allowed that. So top five things
- 39:01Speaker 1: that used to be legal but no longer are top.
- 39:07Speaker 2: Top five Top It'll shock you that this was so.
- 39:14Speaker 2: Number five.
- 39:15Speaker 1: Corporations could give directly to candidates. This was legal until
- 39:19Speaker 1: nineteen o seven and the passage of the then the
- 39:23Speaker 1: Tilman Act. But back then there were no packs. Corporations
- 39:26Speaker 1: didn't need packs or shell entities to get money to candidates.
- 39:30Speaker 1: They simply wrote checks directly from corporate treasuries to candidates.
- 39:34Speaker 1: In fact, Mark Hannah, who was sort of the political
- 39:38Speaker 1: guru of Bill McWilliam McKinley in the turn of the century.
- 39:42Speaker 1: In the eighteen ninety six and nineteen hundred elections, Mark
- 39:45Speaker 1: Hannah while running the McKinley campaigns, he didn't ask corporations
- 39:49Speaker 1: for donations. He assigned them quotas railroads, banks, manufacturers. They
- 39:55Speaker 1: were told what they owed based on what he's thought
- 39:59Speaker 1: was the stake in prosperity. Hey, this is you have
- 40:03Speaker 1: to give this much money to our campaign. And then
- 40:07Speaker 1: it sort of blew up when Standard Oil it was
- 40:11Speaker 1: at the time it was exposed that they secretly funded
- 40:15Speaker 1: Teddy Roosevelt's nineteen oh four campaign, and when that came out,
- 40:19Speaker 1: Teddy was so embarrassed, not because it was illegal, but
- 40:22Speaker 1: because it looked bad that he actually got behind the
- 40:26Speaker 1: reform that became the Tilman Act that did this. Now,
- 40:30Speaker 1: of course we have dark money, You've got people that
- 40:33Speaker 1: can make their donations anonymous, and there's certainly plenty of
- 40:36Speaker 1: shell companies now that can be used in shell five
- 40:39Speaker 1: oh one, s threes and fours and stuff like that.
- 40:42Speaker 1: But believe it or not, back in the day, it
- 40:44Speaker 1: was not just legal. You had campaigns that essentially invoiced
- 40:50Speaker 1: that's what Mark Hannah Diddy invoiced railroad companies and oil
- 40:55Speaker 1: companies for those eighteen ninety six and nineteen hundred campaigns.
- 41:00Speaker 1: Number four on the list, party machines openly bought votes.
- 41:06Speaker 1: This was legal for much of the nineteenth century. Vote
- 41:08Speaker 1: buying wasn't hidden. It was simply transactional. So you'd have
- 41:12Speaker 1: tammany hall operatives. They would just be handing out cash,
- 41:16Speaker 1: call turkeys, whiskey right outside of polling places. This was
- 41:21Speaker 1: in New York City. Ballots back then were public, so
- 41:25Speaker 1: party bosses could actually know how someone voted, and if
- 41:29Speaker 1: you took the money and voted the wrong way, you
- 41:32Speaker 1: didn't get paid the next time. So basically that's how
- 41:35Speaker 1: we ended up with a secret ballot. And it's a reminder,
- 41:40Speaker 1: secret ballots they don't make politics moral, It just makes
- 41:44Speaker 1: it made the corruption unenforceable on that front. The number three,
- 41:50Speaker 1: you won't believe this was legal. Federal jobs being used
- 41:54Speaker 1: as campaign currency. This was legal until eighteen eighty three,
- 41:58Speaker 1: so before we had Civil service reform, and frankly it's
- 42:01Speaker 1: something that Donald Trump's trying to undo today, but federal
- 42:05Speaker 1: employment up until eighteen eighty three was basically a spoils system.
- 42:09Speaker 1: Presidents would fire entire post office staffs after election, and
- 42:13Speaker 1: the postal service back then was seen as part of
- 42:16Speaker 1: the political arm of presidents and political parties. That frankly,
- 42:21Speaker 1: that was all the way through until Leftdr FDR's, you know,
- 42:25Speaker 1: chief political strategist was the postmaster General. That wasn't an
- 42:28Speaker 1: accident because post offices were all over the country. They
- 42:31Speaker 1: were essentially little organizing hubs at least that's how they
- 42:34Speaker 1: saw them until they finally sort of separated out and
- 42:37Speaker 1: took the politics out of the postal service. But before
- 42:40Speaker 1: eighteen eighty three, you'd see just entire post offices would
- 42:43Speaker 1: just we would turn over if the political party of
- 42:47Speaker 1: the president changed and they were all replaced with loyalists.
- 42:51Speaker 1: Federal employees would actually be subjected to political assessments, something
- 42:55Speaker 1: Donald Trump's trying to do right now with civil servants,
- 42:57Speaker 1: right and they would be men. Tory kickbacks were expected,
- 43:02Speaker 1: and if you didn't pay, you lost your job. And
- 43:06Speaker 1: it took the assassination of James Garfield for a former
- 43:10Speaker 1: party boss or party operative in Chester Arthur to see
- 43:13Speaker 1: the light, and he helped as president, lead to this
- 43:17Speaker 1: civil service reform that's actually served the country quite well
- 43:22Speaker 1: until Doge and until what Trump's trying to do now,
- 43:24Speaker 1: where they're trying to repoliticize the federal government. I promise
- 43:27Speaker 1: you know, the corruption of the nineteenth century, which was
- 43:31Speaker 1: huge in government, would come right back if we got
- 43:36Speaker 1: rid of these civil service reforms. Number two on that
- 43:39Speaker 1: list is candidates could accept unlimited, anonymous cash. This was
- 43:43Speaker 1: legal until essentially Watergate, so before we ever had any
- 43:48Speaker 1: modern campaign finance, so there was no disclosure requirements and
- 43:50Speaker 1: no limits, so wealthy donors literally could.
- 43:53Speaker 2: Give bags of cash.
- 43:56Speaker 1: To presidential campaigns with no public reporting. Campaign he literally
- 44:01Speaker 1: kept cash safes okay, envelopes stuffed with money, moved through
- 44:07Speaker 1: hotel rooms, private offices, and voters. None of us had
- 44:10Speaker 1: any right to know who was funding the campaigns or
- 44:12Speaker 1: asking for their vote. Essentially, democracy functioned as a blind trust,
- 44:18Speaker 1: and that blind trust failed miserably. It took Watergate and
- 44:23Speaker 1: Nixon for it to happen, But look, it was bags
- 44:25Speaker 1: of cash. Nobody knows how much money John Kennedy's dad spent.
- 44:29Speaker 1: We still don't know how much he spent. We have
- 44:31Speaker 1: no idea how many people, how much money was spent
- 44:33Speaker 1: on behalf of Eisenhower, how much money FDR spent on
- 44:36Speaker 1: his own campaigns, all of those things. At least now
- 44:39Speaker 1: we have the laws to do that. And then, of
- 44:41Speaker 1: course number one, I can't believe it was legal, is
- 44:44Speaker 1: what I was telling you about, that retiring members of
- 44:46Speaker 1: Congress could simply pocket their leftover campaign money for decades.
- 44:50Speaker 1: When members retired, they just all campaign contributions were seen
- 44:53Speaker 1: as personal property. Retirement lawmakers retirement simply converted the campaign
- 44:57Speaker 1: accounts into personal income or retirement money. There was no
- 45:01Speaker 1: requirement to donate it, refunded, or justify it. And there's
- 45:05Speaker 1: no doubt in ninety two, which is why we had
- 45:07Speaker 1: the record breaking amount of retirements still the record because
- 45:13Speaker 1: that was the last time they could take their leftover
- 45:14Speaker 1: campaign balances and do that. So which leads me into
- 45:20Speaker 1: essentially a second top five list, And this is my
- 45:24Speaker 1: top five list of things that are legal today that
- 45:27Speaker 1: perhaps a future version of me, you know, the aid
- 45:32Speaker 1: version of me, fifty years from now, we'll do this
- 45:34Speaker 1: top five list of believe it or not, this stuff
- 45:36Speaker 1: was legal. And frankly, if some of this becomes illegal
- 45:40Speaker 1: sooner rather than later, we may have Donald Trump to
- 45:42Speaker 1: think so top five things that are still legal that
- 45:48Speaker 1: I think are not going to age.
- 45:49Speaker 2: Well.
- 45:50Speaker 1: Number five members are Congress trading stocks. Right, We've been
- 45:53Speaker 1: seeing this back and forth about the stock trading ban.
- 45:56Speaker 1: The amount of insider info average member of Congress can
- 46:00Speaker 1: get and can make decisions. We saw this during the pandemic.
- 46:03Speaker 1: They get some COVID briefings and all of a sudden
- 46:05Speaker 1: you had members of Congress shorting some places, buying other places.
- 46:10Speaker 1: You know, members of Congress because they you know, will
- 46:13Speaker 1: sometimes get access to funded but it's all parts of
- 46:18Speaker 1: the federal government. People in the Defense Department, government contractors.
- 46:22Speaker 1: So this is clearly a potential loophole. And I don't
- 46:30Speaker 1: see you know, I know that the argument says, well,
- 46:33Speaker 1: and the problem is right, Congress is sitting there going
- 46:35Speaker 1: why do we have to play by one set of
- 46:38Speaker 1: rules while Donald Trump's going to play by no rules?
- 46:40Speaker 1: And I and how you apply this across government I
- 46:44Speaker 1: think is quite difficult. Ultimately, we probably need a constitutional
- 46:48Speaker 1: menut when it comes to and probably just saying that,
- 46:52Speaker 1: you know, when you're in an office of public trust,
- 46:54Speaker 1: federal office, you know you can't you know, you you
- 46:58Speaker 1: know you got to put an blind trust. You got
- 47:01Speaker 1: to do maybe monthly reports. You know, I'm not saying
- 47:03Speaker 1: people are still going to find ways. Perhaps you know,
- 47:05Speaker 1: a crook's going to crook. But if you create more
- 47:10Speaker 1: friction in that process, create more accountability windows in that process,
- 47:13Speaker 1: you're at least going to minimize and at that point,
- 47:16Speaker 1: you know, perhaps shame and sunshine will will remind voters.
- 47:22Speaker 1: But the fact that voted right now, and especially you know,
- 47:26Speaker 1: you could have said forty years ago there weren't that
- 47:28Speaker 1: many people trading in the stock market.
- 47:29Speaker 2: That's not the case anymore.
- 47:32Speaker 1: And it does feel, you know, it's look, we already
- 47:35Speaker 1: know there are plenty of members of Congress who suddenly
- 47:38Speaker 1: end up purchasing land that they get to decide what
- 47:43Speaker 1: becomes an exit on a federal interstate, and then suddenly
- 47:46Speaker 1: that land is worth more money. That stuff's been happening
- 47:49Speaker 1: a long time. That's a little bit harder to to police,
- 47:57Speaker 1: you know, stock trading is a little simple to do.
- 48:01Speaker 1: And it seems like I do think this is going
- 48:05Speaker 1: to get some momentum, especially as there are more and more.
- 48:08Speaker 1: This feels like it's one of those that the left
- 48:11Speaker 1: and the right are gonna that's one of those that
- 48:13Speaker 1: you're going to see a convergence on that one. Number
- 48:16Speaker 1: four Leadership packs right now, leadership packs are essentially little
- 48:21Speaker 1: lifestyle slush funds for members of Congress. Leadership packs they
- 48:25Speaker 1: can pay for luxury travel, high end restaurants, expensive hotels,
- 48:30Speaker 1: you can create a family payroll, and it all can
- 48:32Speaker 1: be labeled as political activity. You know, hey, I've got to,
- 48:37Speaker 1: you know, go do this fundraiser in Puerto Rico. I'll
- 48:40Speaker 1: have my leadership pack pay for this nice resort and
- 48:43Speaker 1: we'll have some great dinners. And it basically became the loophole.
- 48:49Speaker 1: Since you couldn't use tearing your campaign account into personal funds,
- 48:53Speaker 1: these leadership packs became sort of the loophole for that.
- 48:58Speaker 2: They're ripe for abuse.
- 49:00Speaker 1: It's pretty clear that there needs to be more accountability
- 49:02Speaker 1: to them, not less lobbyists bundling the fact that a
- 49:05Speaker 1: single lobbyist right now can gather twenty or thirty maxed
- 49:08Speaker 1: out checks from clients and then deliver them in one
- 49:12Speaker 1: fell swoop, signaling influence within that industry right without breaking
- 49:18Speaker 1: contribution limits. So a pack can help get you a
- 49:22Speaker 1: million dollars in contributions, even if it's twenty five hundred
- 49:25Speaker 1: dollars at a time and creating the fact that that
- 49:32Speaker 1: is And again, I think bundling is hard to police.
- 49:38Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell you I have an easy
- 49:40Speaker 1: way to come up with a regulation that could minimumze
- 49:44Speaker 1: that could do this, but just I think a lot
- 49:46Speaker 1: of this stuff could probably be solved with obsessive transparency
- 49:55Speaker 1: at least where people you force sort of the Nascar effect,
- 50:00Speaker 1: You force people to have to show what they're doing,
- 50:04Speaker 1: who's giving, and how much they're giving at any one time.
- 50:08Speaker 1: This is one that flies under the radar that sitting
- 50:12Speaker 1: members of Congress can negotiate private sector jobs while still
- 50:16Speaker 1: voting on legislation that might have an impact on their
- 50:20Speaker 1: future private sector employment. So, for instance, and we've seen
- 50:24Speaker 1: this right, we saw Mark Green who was a member
- 50:26Speaker 1: of Congress and Tennessee. He seemed to be doing to
- 50:30Speaker 1: negotiating figuring out his private sector future. He ends up
- 50:35Speaker 1: eventually resigning, but he was clearly in the middle of
- 50:38Speaker 1: doing it, then got exposed that he was doing it,
- 50:40Speaker 1: and then finally decided to quit quickly. The fact that
- 50:44Speaker 1: it's legal to negotiate future jobs with industries that are
- 50:48Speaker 1: affected by legislation they're currently voting on right now. They've
- 50:52Speaker 1: put in a cooling off period, but it only starts
- 50:54Speaker 1: after you leave office.
- 50:56Speaker 2: There probably ought to be just a you know, I don't.
- 51:03Speaker 1: It's it's sort of like you get expelled, you lose
- 51:06Speaker 1: your pension, like you know, some penalty if you get
- 51:09Speaker 1: caught negotiating for a job while you're a sitting member
- 51:11Speaker 1: of Congress and voting on that industry, right that you've
- 51:15Speaker 1: got to have some sort of disclosure I'm doing this.
- 51:18Speaker 1: Maybe you don't have to make a public but maybe
- 51:20Speaker 1: to the House Ethics Office or something. Because most of
- 51:24Speaker 1: the time the conflict that you know right now, it's
- 51:27Speaker 1: the cooling. We've worried about former lawmakers going right into lobbying,
- 51:31Speaker 1: and there's cooling off periods for that, but it's the
- 51:33Speaker 1: negotiating why you're voting where you have where it becomes
- 51:38Speaker 1: potentially corruptible. And of course, the number one thing that
- 51:42Speaker 1: is legal in this country that frankly is a mistake
- 51:48Speaker 1: that from the creation of this great Republic, and that
- 51:52Speaker 1: is the presidential pardon power. The fact that presidents can
- 51:56Speaker 1: pardon political allies, donors, family members, potential witnesses, even preemptively
- 52:02Speaker 1: with no transparency, no review, no limits. You know, I
- 52:06Speaker 1: think it's out I think it was outrageous that Joe
- 52:08Speaker 1: Biden issued those those sort of pardons before anything was happening.
- 52:15Speaker 1: And it's even more outrageous that every week Donald Trump
- 52:18Speaker 1: seems to essentially sell pardons and give pardons out to
- 52:25Speaker 1: people who are either political allies or financial benefactors. But
- 52:32Speaker 1: it is clearly a huge gap in our system. It's
- 52:39Speaker 1: going to take a constitutional amendment to get rid of
- 52:41Speaker 1: the presidential pardon now. You know, I think that there's
- 52:46Speaker 1: a way to reform it. You create a pardon board.
- 52:49Speaker 1: Maybe it you know, there's two members of Congression leadership
- 52:53Speaker 1: to Supreme Court justice, maybe the two most senior Supreme
- 52:56Speaker 1: Court justices, plus maybe the attorney general, president and vice president.
- 53:00Speaker 2: Something like that.
- 53:00Speaker 1: You can create a pardon board where you still have
- 53:04Speaker 1: some but it's got to go through a vetting process
- 53:07Speaker 1: and some sort of process there. It is because right
- 53:11Speaker 1: now I think we've seen it's the greatest loophole that
- 53:13Speaker 1: sits in the Constitution for a president to abuse, and
- 53:19Speaker 1: we probably have a president right now that is abusing
- 53:23Speaker 1: the pardon power at a rate that no other president
- 53:26Speaker 1: has even come close to it. So there you go,
- 53:29Speaker 1: my top five lists of things you wouldn't believe used
- 53:32Speaker 1: to be legal, and my top five list of things
- 53:35Speaker 1: I can't believe are still legal.
- 53:47Speaker 2: Right, little ass, Chuck? Ask Chuck.
- 53:52Speaker 1: First question comes from Nick Denver, Colorado. Hey, Chuck, thanks
- 53:56Speaker 1: for the great content. What happened with the Supreme Court
- 53:58Speaker 1: Tariff's case? It seemed like ruling was coming weeks ago,
- 54:02Speaker 1: but now there's silence. Are they delaying it to make
- 54:04Speaker 1: the policy harder to reverse and easier for Trump to
- 54:06Speaker 1: get what he wants? Also, is Trump unique in being
- 54:08Speaker 1: an unpopular populist? It is sort of a you know,
- 54:13Speaker 1: if you're You're put it this way, if you're an
- 54:15Speaker 1: unpopular populist, then you're no longer a populist, right because
- 54:22Speaker 1: in theory, a populist is supposed to always be the
- 54:25Speaker 1: ultimate finger in the wind politician. So yes, I think
- 54:30Speaker 1: he is a unicorn. I think what it's a reminder
- 54:33Speaker 1: of that populism isn't really an ideology or an agenda.
- 54:37Speaker 1: And I think, frankly, we're I think it's a lazy
- 54:40Speaker 1: descriptive word. I've used it way too often, you know,
- 54:43Speaker 1: when I hear the word populism. I can just tell
- 54:47Speaker 1: you as as I now I can tell you as
- 54:50Speaker 1: a Jewish American, I duck and I assume. Well, then
- 54:54Speaker 1: what comes next is the anti semitism, and as a
- 54:56Speaker 1: matter if it comes from left or the right. But
- 54:59Speaker 1: what this this really is is nationalism, right, It's economic nationalism,
- 55:04Speaker 1: it's cultural nationalism. And that's what Trump is. He's a
- 55:09Speaker 1: nationalist and that's not popular. And ultimately, you know, right,
- 55:13Speaker 1: we I there are specific ideas that get attributed to
- 55:17Speaker 1: nationalists that are popular, but the idea of.
- 55:20Speaker 2: Being a nationalist is not popular.
- 55:22Speaker 1: And I think more and more people the reason he's unpopular, Nick,
- 55:25Speaker 1: is that I don't think he's viewed as a populist.
- 55:27Speaker 1: I think he's viewed more as an America first or nationalist.
- 55:30Speaker 1: He's done a good job branding himself that way, and
- 55:32Speaker 1: I don't think that's just the popular position to be.
- 55:35Speaker 1: You know, yes, we're sort of we Americans are kind
- 55:38Speaker 1: of a tad more isolationist than Europeans. But emphasis on
- 55:44Speaker 1: the word tad on that one. All right, back to
- 55:46Speaker 1: your first question, Yeah, well, I mean this is the
- 55:49Speaker 1: you know, the lack of transparency of the Supreme Court
- 55:54Speaker 1: decision making process is one of those you know, only
- 55:58Speaker 1: only the Vatican is more opaque than the Supreme Court.
- 56:05Speaker 1: The longer this goes, the harder it is to turn.
- 56:09Speaker 1: I can tell you that, you know, it's clear that
- 56:15Speaker 1: Trump already has a plan to re implement the tariffs
- 56:20Speaker 1: in another way and essentially create another lawsuits. So I
- 56:24Speaker 1: do think this is going to Let's say the ruling
- 56:27Speaker 1: comes out against them, then it becomes whack a mole.
- 56:29Speaker 1: I think the question is why is it taking so long?
- 56:31Speaker 1: Could it be that there are going to be multiple opinions?
- 56:35Speaker 1: Could it be that Roberts is looking for that Roberts
- 56:40Speaker 1: is looking for this goldilocks, you know, an opinion that
- 56:43Speaker 1: only applies to this specific case.
- 56:46Speaker 2: Right.
- 56:46Speaker 1: It seemed pretty open and shut to a lot of
- 56:48Speaker 1: legal analysts and a lot of economic TERRORFF experts. But
- 56:52Speaker 1: the longer it takes, it's fair. I mean, my guess
- 56:55Speaker 1: is more people want to write opinions. That's usually what
- 56:57Speaker 1: explains delays is that you'll have you know, are we
- 57:01Speaker 1: going to have multiple cents? Are we going to have
- 57:04Speaker 1: multiple concurrences? That would be my guess is what's taking
- 57:07Speaker 1: so long? But I do think the White House has
- 57:12Speaker 1: spent time they've got in this case, they're obsessed with
- 57:15Speaker 1: keeping this tariff regime implemented in some form or another
- 57:19Speaker 1: because the President likes the unilateral control it gives him
- 57:21Speaker 1: in negotiating with countries individually. They're going to find other
- 57:27Speaker 1: ways to challenge this. But you're right, it's been weird
- 57:31Speaker 1: to wait this long. Next question comes from Larry Kay.
- 57:33Speaker 1: He goes, not a question, but did you notice I
- 57:35Speaker 1: live in Overland Park, Kansas, and noticed that Congresswoman Charis
- 57:39Speaker 1: Davis recently toured areas well outside our district, which don
- 57:42Speaker 1: Dodge City, Colby, which suggests she may be eyeing a
- 57:44Speaker 1: run for Roger Marshall Senate.
- 57:45Speaker 2: See.
- 57:46Speaker 1: Trump's effort to redistrict her out of the House may
- 57:48Speaker 1: have pushed her in that direction, especially as Marshall's more
- 57:51Speaker 1: extreme pro magastances are alienating some voters in eastern Kansas.
- 57:55Speaker 1: With Kansas history of electing trailblazing senators, it's an intriguing possibility.
- 57:59Speaker 2: Larry, I am.
- 58:01Speaker 1: I think Cherise Davis is an interesting politician. She's not
- 58:05Speaker 1: easy to categorize.
- 58:08Speaker 2: I have.
- 58:09Speaker 1: I think she is one of the better. You know
- 58:12Speaker 1: a phrase I like to use political athlete, and I
- 58:14Speaker 1: think she's a really good political athlete. And you know,
- 58:20Speaker 1: if there was ever a political environment for Democrats to
- 58:25Speaker 1: get to to take a shot at winning a Senate
- 58:29Speaker 1: seat in Kansas. By the way, they won a Senate
- 58:31Speaker 1: seat in Kansas since the early nineteen thirties. Okay, I
- 58:34Speaker 1: think it's thirty six. It was the last time a
- 58:37Speaker 1: Democrat won a Senate a US Senate seat in Kansas.
- 58:41Speaker 1: And Marshall has been more more, a little more trumpy
- 58:44Speaker 1: than I think the state of Kansas is, right, you know,
- 58:47Speaker 1: he certainly it's interesting. I would not be as bullish
- 58:51Speaker 1: on David's chances if it was if she were challenging
- 58:54Speaker 1: Jerry Moran. But Marshall has been a little more out
- 58:57Speaker 1: there on the conservative limb, which find in a primary
- 59:03Speaker 1: in Kansas these days. Like you know, I think Kansas
- 59:07Speaker 1: is light red and not dark red, and in a
- 59:10Speaker 1: political cycle like this one where it looks like the
- 59:13Speaker 1: wind is blowing in the direction of the Democrats, I think.
- 59:18Speaker 2: She's I can tell you this.
- 59:20Speaker 1: I know Chuck Schumer and others in the Senate are
- 59:25Speaker 1: working hard to recruit her. So we'll say filing deadline
- 59:29Speaker 1: hasn't passed. Next question comes from Mark h Alan, Texas. Hey, Chuck,
- 59:34Speaker 1: go Pats. Sorry you probably sent the question before the
- 59:39Speaker 1: Super Bowl.
- 59:40Speaker 2: Sorry about that for you, he goes.
- 59:41Speaker 1: I rarely post political opinions, but after seeing how quickly
- 59:44Speaker 1: the victims in the Minnesota I shooting were demonized, they
- 59:46Speaker 1: spoke out and was immediately labeled as Satanists with TDS
- 59:50Speaker 1: and a trader. The extreme content I was tagged in
- 59:52Speaker 1: afterward really highlights on tacks that can polarize the echo
- 59:54Speaker 1: chambers have become. How can we heal as a country
- 59:57Speaker 1: with this kind of division? Look, I think this is
- 59:59Speaker 1: where you know, what's what's what's frustrating is that I
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: do think the algorithms and the tech companies have created
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: an incentive structures too to paint a picture of division.
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: You know, I constantly believe real America is less divided
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: than online America. Increasingly, I think we're all worried that
- 1:00:19Speaker 1: online America is invading real America rather than real America
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: bleeding into online America where we tone things down. But
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: this is where the tech companies have a responsibility. Why
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: are you being you know, why why are why are
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: you getting why are you seeing all this extreme content, right,
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: the tech companies want to make sure you see it,
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: because what do they want you to do? Make you angrier,
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: make you respond more, make you post more, make you
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: sit on there more, create more engagement. All they care
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: about is the engagement. Whether the engagement excites crazies or
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: excites normies, it doesn't matter as long as it creates engagement.
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: And I think you know, I hate I'm sorry this
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: happened to you, Mark, but in some ways more Americans
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: need to experience how much these algorithms.
- 1:01:11Speaker 2: That's what I keep trying to tell people.
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: We're not as divided as cable TV and and and
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: these social media sites make it seem.
- 1:01:20Speaker 2: It really is.
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: It really is sort of these these warped incentive structures
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: for the information ecosystem that makes it seem like it's
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: it's this crazy, because obviously we're not this crazy. You
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: just look at the polling. Right, Essentially, most people are
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: somewhere in the middle, and they don't like how divided
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: we are. They don't like this divisiveness. All right, next question,
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: I'm going to make this the last question for the day,
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: but I promise I know we've got a lot in here,
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: and I'm gonna I'm gonna make sure the weekend mail
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: bag is a little longer for you since this, you know,
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: twenty four hours. This is just for the you know,
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: the quick turn around show. So this question comes from
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: also comes from Overland Park, Kansas. Man two Overland Park,
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: Kansas questions in the same episode.
- 1:02:11Speaker 2: Hey Chuck.
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: With so much chaos from this administration, it's hard to
- 1:02:14Speaker 1: distinguish what matters most short term versus long term. I
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: wonder if a visual tool like a graph plotting events
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: by their short and long term INCAC could help news
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: organizations and the public better prioritize what deserves attention. For example,
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: Trump's self dealing might rank high short term but low
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: long term, while the decline of US alliances would score
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: high on both axes. I love podcasts. Appreciate how you
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: think through the issues. Helps me develop my own perspective.
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: That's all I'm trying to do. I am not trying
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: to tell you what your position should be. I'm trying
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: to give you as much context as I can possibly
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: give you so that you can make your own decision.
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: Then you add go big Red because you're a Husker fan.
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: Football is better when Nebraska football is good in help healthy.
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: I am not yet a rule truther, but I'm I'm
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: more I'm still I'm still a believer in rule, but
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: I have a feeling this has got to be the year.
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: Twenty six has got to be the year where you
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: guys see eight or nine wins and and what is it?
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: You can't keep losing these these one score games. Anyway,
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: Sorry to rubsult in that room, Dave, that's an interesting.
- 1:03:28Speaker 2: Idea you have there, you know.
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: I one of the things I've tried to do is
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: at least focus on what Trump does unless somebody says right.
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: And I've and you've seen me.
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: You know, every once in a while, Ale weigh in
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: on something he says because I think it is, you know,
- 1:03:43Speaker 1: unnecessarily divisive or puts us in a tough spot. But
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: I kind of think that's the real problem with the
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: with the sort of the legacy media, because they're still
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: desperate for traffic, desperate for attention.
- 1:03:58Speaker 2: So what do you do? The stuff he says is.
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: Very dramatic, and it really like you won't believe what
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: Trump said next. Yeah, you know, okay, Trump says crazy
- 1:04:07Speaker 1: shit all the time. You know, it's when he does stuff,
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: you know, and I kind of think the priority has
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: to be on what he's doing, what he's done, not
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: what he says he might do. I'm not saying you
- 1:04:19Speaker 1: shouldn't ignore what he says he might do, but I
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: kind of think that that's where it sort of learn
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: to properly react, not overreact or underreact. And so my
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: whole dividing line is what does he do versus what
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: he says? And then when he does stuff based on
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: what he has said, And I think you've got to
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: point that out too. But that's you know, that's the
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: difficulty in both covering Donald Trump. It's the difficulty in
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: either being a supporter of Trump, covering Trump, or opposing Trump.
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: He's all over the map. You know, ask ask a
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: Republican who's trying to defend Trump, and and so, you know,
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: help me, help you, right. One doesn't always know where
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: he's going to come down on certain issues. So he
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: has made it very difficult to be a supporter at times.
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: He's made it very difficult to just cover him as
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: an observer, and he's made it very difficult to be
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: in opposition to him at times because of the erratic
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: and chaotic nature so ultimately I'm focusing. I try to
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: focus more on what he's doing and less on what
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: he's saying. Not ignoring it, but just trying to de
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: emphasize it. All Right, I'm going to shut things down
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: for all of twenty four hours. I will be coming
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: to you actually from from Cambridge for the next episode,
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: or at least for pieces of the next episode. I
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: will have a longer mail bag and i'll explain what
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: I'm doing there. I'll give you a little deep brief
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: of a talk and a conversation that I'll be having
- 1:05:58Speaker 1: with folks at the Kennedy School, and with that, I'll
- 1:06:02Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours.
- 1:06:03Speaker 2: Thanks for checking in.
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: M