Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 418 - 12/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 418 - 12/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome. To.
• 0:15
  Episode. 4/18 of the all systems.
• 0:18
  Go sports betting podcast. Powered by rhythm, I'm your host
• 0:24
  Josh. Applebaum What's going on,
• 0:30
  everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday.
• 0:32
  You know what that means? It's a Thursday.
• 0:34
  So we have a couple big things going on.
• 0:37
  Number one, we have our rhythm rundown tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern
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  Time myself, my. Buddy Kate Harper.
• 0:43
  Going through all the football games this weekend, NFL as well
• 0:46
  as college ball playoffs so. Looking forward to that.
• 0:50
  And just a reminder. I always mention rhythm because
• 0:52
  they do a. Great job of powering this pod,
• 0:54
  giving us those AI backed models and predictions.
• 0:57
  But if you'd like to give. Rhythm a shot.
• 0:59
  There's a seven day free trial and if you.
• 1:00
  Like it and. You want to keep.
• 1:01
  It all you got to. Do do is use the?
• 1:03
  Promo code start. 25 STA. RT2.
• 1:07
  Five. It'll give you 20. 5% off so.
• 1:10
  If you're interested or you want to refer a.
• 1:11
  Friend that's also available. To you both get a little bit of
• 1:15
  a sweetener there as well, so looking forward to another
• 1:17
  rhythm. Rundown tonight, 6:00 PM
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  Eastern. Time streamed live on Twitter, I
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  hope. To see you guys there.
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  Also, it's a Thursday, so you know what that means as well,
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  not just. The rhythm rundown.
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  But Thursday Night Football, baby, Can you believe it?
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  It's Week 16, only a few weeks left in the regular.
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  Season but this. Match up tonight.
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  Is very juicy. It's a very, very short.
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  Number it's. Nearly a pick em game.
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  Although one team has become. A clear favorite here.
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  So do have a. Play here for you guys on the
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  side. For Rams in Seattle also.
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  Going to talk about the weather because the weather is really.
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  Affecting the total. Here, but I do have.
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  The one bet for. You guys for Thursday football
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  and then. I have a couple plays.
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  Upcoming for Friday and Saturday in the College Football
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  Playoffs. So there's two games that really
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  jumped out to me. They're extremely heavily bet.
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  We got good sharp line moves. 1 is a play I want to get down on.
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  Now hoping that it doesn't. Move further toward the side.
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  And then the other one. Is a spot.
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  Where I want to grab the hook right now.
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  Before it gets down and we maybe can, you know, lose by.
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  Three in cash versus lose by three and.
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  Push so couple upcoming plays here.
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  College football. For the playoff, not just.
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  Bowl games, but these very. Important playoff games.
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  So we got Seattle. And the Rams tonight.
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  Best bet rhythm rundown tonight. And then two upcoming.
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  College Football Playoff games. For tomorrow and for Saturday.
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  Now looking back toward yesterday, guys, pretty good
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  night 2 and 1 plus. 0.84 units. I'm glad to be, really.
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  Focused. On college football, because
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  when? Two and O.
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  Really kind of applying the. Blueprint that we've used.
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  To start, so not not bad. Three and O so far in our first
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  3 bowl games. And the whole angle for me when
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  you're betting. These bowl games is you're
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  trying to. Marry the betting.
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  Market and what it's telling you the splits with the line.
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  Movement and then of course also looking at OK what's causing.
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  A lot of these line. Moves.
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  What's the reasoning? Are there opt outs?
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  Are there you know? Coaches who have left and.
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  They'll be an interim coach. You know are.
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  There guys who are injured, you know, this is super important.
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  Because you got to know. Also what it?
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  Means to both teams. Like for example.
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  Two and O last night in the bowl games, including.
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  The first one there old. Dominion Old Dominion with a
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  really sharp move. At one point plus. 7 1/2.
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  All the way down to 4 or even 3 1/2.
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  Remember, rhythm had Old Dominion.
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  Plus. 0.5 or +2 You also had a 10% sharp mush.
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  Edge with Old Dominion. So really everything was lining
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  up with Old Dominion. The other angle that we liked
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  was South. Florida had their starting
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  quarterback who was out. Had a bunch of other.
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  Players who opted out so. That game meant a lot to Old
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  Dominion. Trying to get their.
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  First ball win with their head coach, which happened. 24 to 10
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  win. So great hit there with.
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  Old Dominion and then. Delaware baby the blue.
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  Hens. They made us sweat.
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  It was probably too. Close for comfort there at the
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  end. But Delaware 1 outright, 20 to
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  13. That was a great.
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  Hit for us whether you got the +2 and a.
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  Half or even plus 1 1/2. But remember, rhythm had a plus.
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  0.4. Plus 0.5.
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  So rhythm was saying. Hey, it should.
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  Be about a pick. Em game we could get.
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  Upwards of. 1 1/2. Or 2 1/2.
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  And the angle there was Delaware had the motivational.
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  Edge Delaware is a. A new entrance, a new entry, I
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  should say, into FBS so they. Are in the big leagues now.
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  First year you want to. Win a game.
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  You want to win a bowl game? Get your.
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  Program off on the right. Foot versus Louisiana, but.
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  Didn't have a ton of opt outs, but Louisiana.
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  Had kind of AI don't. Know a down season they.
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  Had a really good year last year, 10 and 4.
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  Made a good bowl game. Made their conference
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  championship game. This year they were 6.
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  And six and probably were disappointed to play in.
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  That small little bowl game there.
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  So the motivation. Was on Delaware the line?
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  Move toward Delaware. Sharp mush edge, rhythm edge.
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  Delaware came through so great. Little 2 and O with Old Dominion
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  and Delaware. The only loser was so laughable
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  I didn't even. Get mad.
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  I just, I just laughed out loud. Because I was out with the wife.
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  Doing some errands and I had to kind.
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  Of miss some of this game. But I looked at the.
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  Score Xavier and Creighton. Xavier was down like 40 points.
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  End up. Losing the game.
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  I don't even know what the score was.
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  What was it? 98 to 50. 7A favorite that
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  opens. Minus. 2 gets steamed up to. 3
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  1/2. And you lose by you know what,
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  40 points. So that was pathetic.
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  Absolute no show by Xavier. But again, I'm.
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  Glad, we said to ourselves. Hey, college football.
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  Bowl games, we got an. Edge here.
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  College basketball, there's a lot of games.
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  Well, let's not force it. An old friend of mine.
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  Mentor of mine always said. Josh, try to maximize your edge.
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  If you feel like you have an edge in one sport.
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  Over the other. Don't, don't.
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  Force it in the sport that you don't.
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  Have the edge in focus on the sport.
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  That you do have the edge in. So good little 2:00 and 1:00.
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  Plus zero point. 84 unit night. So that being said.
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  Let's waste no more time. I got 1.
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  Play for tonight. Let's try to go 1 and out.
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  And keep this little hot streak. Going so.
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  Obviously, we have a huge. Game tonight, Rams and Seattle.
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  So make sure you got your your Amazon Prime.
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  Locked and. Loaded ready to go here.
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  Let's set the stage. Talk line.
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  Movement split system matches and I'll give you my play for
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  this one. So right off the bat, very
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  important game because I believe the.
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  Winner gets the number one seed. In the NFC, so this is not one
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  of those. Games where sometimes.
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  You got to look at motivation. Like a lot of these.
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  Games upcoming this weekend where?
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  A team has been eliminated or a team is going to a backup.
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  Quarterback or it doesn't. Really mean much to either team?
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  No no no. This one means a lot.
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  To both teams, so hopefully we get a a good game here tonight.
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  But anyway, 8. 15 PM Eastern Time.
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  Rams at Seahawks The Rams come in. 11 and three.
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  They won two straight. Just took down the Lions. 41 to
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  34. They covered as a 5.
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  And a half point. Home favorite You know the.
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  Seahawks, also 11 and three, just edged the Colts. 18 to 16
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  they beat. Old man Rivers, but they did not
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  cover they were favored by. 12 1/2 at.
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  Home in that one, so. What have you seen across the
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  market? Well, this game opened.
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  Rams listed as a very. Short. 1 1/2.
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  Point Rd. Favorite.
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  And the public. Says Rams are the better team.
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  Now again. Teams have the same record.
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  Seattle has home home field advantage, but the public says.
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  You know Rams, they remember. Them winning the Super Bowl a
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  few years ago. Stafford is the MVP front.
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  Runner they're they have the best Super Bowl odds, so there
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  is a. Public.
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  Bias in favor of the. Rams, however, even though the.
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  Rams are getting 65. Percent of spread bets at
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  DraftKings the Rams open -1 1/2 they're not up to. -2 - 3.
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  Nope, this line is completely flipped.
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  Woo woo. We got to come up with some kind
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  of siren. That's our Ken Palm Sound the
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  alarm in college hoops, but. What's our dog to fave?
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  Siren, we got to come up with some some kind.
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  Of barking noise or something. But anyway.
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  The sign is flipped towards. Seattle So even though 65.
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  Percent of spread bats are going with McVeigh and Stafford.
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  We've. Seen the sign flipped to.
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  Seattle -1 1/2 at. Home.
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  So Seattle. Has gone from plus 1 1/2 to -1
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  1/2. Now, right off the bat.
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  Dog to fave gets me. Excited.
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  I love playing a dog to fave line move because it really
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  tells you that. A lot of big money.
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  Respected money, again, not just big money, but coming from who?
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  A lot of people always say, you know, follow.
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  The money, which makes sense. But I want to.
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  Follow the money of the. Sharps not follow the money of
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  the public, but anyway it. Looks like sharp money is on.
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  Seattle because they flipped. Plus 1 1/2 to -1 1/2 even
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  though. Nearly 2/3 of bets.
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  Are going with the Rams, so not only.
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  Do we have a dog to fave line move?
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  Not only do we have a. Reverse line move.
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  Again, public Rams line, Seattle.
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  We also have a feed. The trendy dog play.
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  Tonight, it's very rare. That you get a.
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  Contrarian favorite. In a prime time game.
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  Because normally the public. Wants to hammer that favorite.
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  So the fact that the. Seattle Seahawks like take away.
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  The dog to fave line move, take away the RLM.
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  Just the fact that. They're favored.
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  And yet they're only getting. 1/3 of tickets that just doesn't
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  happen very often. So that is a.
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  Very rare contrarian. Opportunity like as a dog
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  Better. 9 times out of 10, or as a contrarian, better.
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  I mean 9 times out of 10 you're taking a dog this time.
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  We get an opportunity to play the favorite lay the.
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  Chalk because they're very unpopular.
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  Which again. Public wants to bet.
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  The quote UN quote. Better team, that's expected.
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  To win, but. They're not doing.
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  It tonight they're going Rams, yet the line is.
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  Going to Seattle. So sharp RLM.
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  Fade the trendy dog. Great contrarian value dog to
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  fave. Then we get into the.
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  Splits. Splits look really.
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  Good on Seattle at DraftKings. 35% of spread.
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  Bets 44. Percent of spread dollars at
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  circa 38% of spread. Bets 70. 3% of spread dollars.
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  So especially that circa split. Tells me a.
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  Lot of big money. Fading that trendy dog Rams and
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  going with Seattle here. Now I went Seattle on the money
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  line. I was able to get Seattle.
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  As low as -112 I believe. That was at.
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  I think it was at either. Fanatics.
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  Or FanDuel, but some books. Are as low as I want to say.
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  Maybe it was -1. 20 but yeah, some books.
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  Are as high as -125 but either. Way it's a very short money line
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  price. You know.
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  McVeigh can go for two. Weird things can happen.
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  We're going to talk about the weather in a second.
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  So there. Could be some missed kicks.
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  It's very. Windy in Seattle tonight.
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  Which is why we've seen this total really plummet.
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  More on that in a second, but it's not that expensive around
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  -120 -, 125 So that's what I did.
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  Late with Seattle. Money line here.
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  You'll get the splits at DK. On the money line. 34%.
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  Sorry, let me find this for you. 34%.
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  Of money line bets but. 52%. Of money line.
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  Dollars, so another really good. Split there in favor of Seattle
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  winning this game outright. And then?
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  Aside from that sharp money line split, we got a lot of good
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  money line systems. Lighting up here on Seattle.
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  When both teams. Are coming off win.
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  Which is the case here. Take the home favorite very.
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  Simple, but that system is. 23 and 970. 2.
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  Percent straight up this year, 10% or three, sorry, 2% ROI.
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  And since 2020. Two both teams coming off.
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  Win. Take the home.
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  Favorite. That's 1:15 and. 4273.
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  Percent with an 8% ROI. Then we get into the short week,
• 11:05
  so it is Thursday Night Football, which typically
• 11:07
  favors. The favorite and the.
• 11:09
  Home team. Because it's a short week.
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  So again, it's kind of an advantage to the home team.
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  Especially when. They don't have to travel.
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  But Thursday football home favorites.
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  They're 7. And four straight up.
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  This year, 64. Percent.
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  They are one. 40 and 5170. 3% straight up.
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  With a nearly. 5% ROI. Since 2006.
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  Also it's a revenge game. This reminds me A.
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  Little bit of the. Patriots and the Bills.
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  Where I was on the. Patriots lost that one.
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  Over the weekend. But the Patriots had beaten the.
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  It's a divisional opponent. And Patriots had beaten the.
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  Bills at the Bills. Earlier in the year.
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  It's very difficult to win both. Games and against the divisional
• 11:46
  opponent. So for example.
• 11:48
  The Seattle Seahawks. Went to the Rams back.
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  In week 11, it. Was a very close.
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  Game they lost 21 to 19. Now they're at home with that
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  revenge angle. In mind and again.
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  Hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in a season.
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  Then we get into a decent. Sharp mush edge.
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  A 7% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Reel and then I
• 12:08
  also have a green. Star recommended money line.
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  Play from our friends at. Rhythm, also on Seattle.
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  So everything's lining up for me.
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  On Seattle guys Publix Rams. Yet we went dog to fave in favor
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  of Seattle. We're contrarian with a reverse
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  line move in a fave. The trendy dog spot.
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  We got good back split straight up.
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  We got good betting system. Straight up, we have a.
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  Revenge angle and oh, by the way.
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  No devante. Adams tonight, so Devante Adams.
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  Or at least, he's technically doubtful, but not.
• 12:36
  Expected a place. That's a really good player who
• 12:38
  will not suit up here. So you add it all.
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  Up going Seattle Seahawks on the money line.
• 12:44
  Again, you can shop. Around and find around a -, 120
• 12:48
  now I'm not playing the under. But I just want to mention this.
• 12:50
  Because it is a big if you're like a.
• 12:52
  Windy under. System match player which I.
• 12:54
  Typically am, although I don't want.
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  To force a total when I feel like I have a really good edge
• 12:58
  on the side. Cuz I hate to go. 1:00 and 1:00.
• 13:00
  And lose slightly a little bit of juice.
• 13:02
  When I could go one? And O and you know, turn nearly
• 13:04
  a unit. In profit, but anyway.
• 13:06
  If you're, you know, forcing me. Gun to the head, I'm going to go
• 13:09
  under. Here maybe you also.
• 13:11
  Want to tease it up? That could be an angle to a pair
• 13:13
  it with another game. Well, this total is.
• 13:15
  Absolutely plummeted. Open as high as. 47 1/2.
• 13:19
  It's. All the way down to 43 or even
• 13:20
  40. 2 1/2 across the market. That's notable because 71.
• 13:24
  Percent of bets at DraftKings. Are going over.
• 13:27
  So the public's hammering the over, yet the total has.
• 13:30
  Fallen. Circa.
• 13:31
  Only 16% of bets. But 56% of dollars around the
• 13:35
  under and once again, I kind of hinted at it.
• 13:38
  But it is a big. Weather play in Seattle now,
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  it's not freezing cold. It's going to be like. 50° which
• 13:43
  is. Kind of warm.
• 13:44
  It seems like from an outsider's perspective.
• 13:46
  I thought Pacific North Northwest would be much colder.
• 13:49
  But the key is the wind. You are expecting low 50s temps
• 13:54
  but. 20 mile per hour winds. Gusts up to. 40 mph and.
• 13:59
  Most of that, like it's going to be sustained. 10 plus wind.
• 14:02
  Mile per hour winds throughout the game.
• 14:04
  But that really, really heavy. 20 mile per hour.
• 14:06
  And 40 mile per hour. Gusts.
• 14:08
  That's going to be mostly in the.
• 14:09
  First half so I was. Thinking to myself OK, like if
• 14:12
  you really. Want to get, you know, kind of
• 14:15
  hopefully you know, identify a. Really good angle here.
• 14:17
  Like maybe you play the. 1st. Half total it's sitting at.
• 14:20
  Around 2121 1/2 you can find it 20 1/2.
• 14:25
  That would make sense if the weather is.
• 14:26
  Going to be really bad, especially early, but we do have
• 14:29
  prime time unders. 28 and 21. This season, 50. 7% nine percent
• 14:34
  ROI. They are 129 and 90. 258.
• 14:37
  Percent, 12% ROI since. 2022. We get to our.
• 14:41
  Windy under system matches when? The wind blows at least 10 mph
• 14:44
  or more. The under is 21 and 11.
• 14:47
  This year, 66. Percent, 25% ROI.
• 14:50
  It's 160. Two and One, 8559.
• 14:53
  Percent, 13% ROI since. 2016 and then another angle that you
• 14:58
  always. Want to keep an eye?
• 14:59
  Out especially. Late in the season, outdoor.
• 15:01
  Divisional. Unders you know your opponent.
• 15:04
  There's weather typically involved so it's not a Dome or
• 15:06
  closed roof stadium. Outdoor divisional unders are.
• 15:09
  26 and 20. Three this year, 53.
• 15:11
  Percent, 2% ROI. But they are 320.
• 15:15
  Five and Two, 7550. 4 percent, 5% ROI since. 2017 so again you
• 15:20
  can probably find a 40. Three if you want to go under.
• 15:23
  I'd go under or nothing. But again, I feel like I have a
• 15:26
  really. Strong edge here with Seattle.
• 15:28
  So I'll lean under and hope. All you guys hit your.
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  Primetime windy under but my one play for it tonight.
• 15:33
  Seattle Seahawks really checking off.
• 15:35
  Almost every box here. See if the Seahawks.
• 15:38
  Can get a winner. Let's go, Sam.
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  Darnold. Darnold's been.
• 15:41
  Really good since becoming. A starter or second go.
• 15:45
  Around, I guess you could say the Vikings are now Seattle.
• 15:48
  But I'm always in the back of my mind.
• 15:49
  Worried about the old? Bad Sam Darnold showing up and
• 15:52
  throwing a pick. So let's let's play well
• 15:54
  tonight, Sam Darnold. How about that?
• 15:56
  But let's go Seattle. On the money line.
• 15:58
  It's my play for tonight. Now.
• 16:01
  Hoping to get a little bit out of head in some of these games.
• 16:04
  I want to just highlight a couple that.
• 16:06
  Jumped out to me. And again, we got tomorrow's
• 16:08
  pod, which is obviously a. Friday wrapping up the week so.
• 16:11
  I'll have my full best bet card. But I am looking at.
• 16:13
  Some of these College Football Playoff games.
• 16:16
  Like we've been doing. Really well with our bowl.
• 16:17
  Games. Knock on wood.
• 16:18
  Three and O start. But I had some people.
• 16:20
  DM me on Twitter. And be like, OK, well, what
• 16:22
  about the big boys? What about the big ones?
• 16:24
  What are you doing? For the College Football
• 16:26
  Playoff. Games so.
• 16:28
  I landed on 2. That I thought were worth
• 16:30
  betting right now. So the first one is.
• 16:34
  Tomorrow night, which I'm a little annoyed because my wife
• 16:38
  and my good friend and his wife, you know what they did, they
• 16:42
  said. We got to get together.
• 16:43
  Let's go do a. Pottery class together.
• 16:46
  So we're literally going to a pottery class tomorrow night,
• 16:49
  which again, annoying. I want to watch Alabama.
• 16:52
  Oklahoma, but. What are you going to do?
• 16:53
  You got to make the wives happy. So literally you're going to be
• 16:56
  sitting there with like our hands dirty with the clay making
• 16:58
  pots. So that's that's married life.
• 17:01
  You got to keep the wife happy anyway.
• 17:03
  Alabama, Oklahoma, 8:00 tomorrow.
• 17:05
  Night Extremely heavily bet. First College Football Playoff.
• 17:09
  Game be on ABCI. Got to play for you.
• 17:12
  So Alabama. Comes in as the ninth seed.
• 17:15
  They are 10 and 3. On the year.
• 17:17
  But last time they played. They played Georgia in the SEC
• 17:20
  championship game, got rolled 28 to 7.
• 17:23
  Don't remind me, I was on Bama there.
• 17:25
  You know what? Oklahoma.
• 17:26
  They're ranked. 8th. Or they're the eighth seed here
• 17:28
  in this. Culture Ball Playoff.
• 17:30
  They're 10 and 2. They've won four straight.
• 17:32
  And they just beat LSU. 17 to 13 now.
• 17:35
  Important thing to know. Here is these are true.
• 17:37
  Home field games. So home field advantage is not a
• 17:41
  neutral site bowl or anything like that.
• 17:43
  It's. True home field.
• 17:45
  So it means it's in. Oklahoma, Norman, OK now.
• 17:48
  Let's look at what the. Betting market has done.
• 17:50
  A lot of these books opened around to pick them some shops.
• 17:54
  Opened Alabama as high as -1 1/2.
• 17:58
  And basically the public doesn't know what to.
• 18:00
  Do if you look at. DraftKings right now it's. 50.
• 18:02
  50 right down the middle. What do we always talk about?
• 18:05
  5050 bet split theoretically. In a vacuum line, shouldn't.
• 18:08
  Move at all because you would expect with.
• 18:10
  You know. Balanced action equal.
• 18:12
  Tickets both side there's no. Need for the odds makers to move
• 18:15
  the number up or down. However, when you see a. 5050.
• 18:19
  Split, but yet the line. Does move.
• 18:21
  I like going with that. Line move.
• 18:22
  Because it tells me that. Even though the public is.
• 18:24
  Split and they don't know. What to do?
• 18:26
  Sharps are taking a position. And sharps look.
• 18:28
  To have taken a position on Oklahoma, give me Oklahoma.
• 18:31
  Money line here guys. They open at a pick or plus 1
• 18:34
  1/2. Very similar to the Seattle
• 18:37
  Seahawks game. They've now flipped to. -1.
• 18:40
  Some shops. Even you know -1 1/2.
• 18:42
  So we got a dog to fave line move on the Sooners.
• 18:46
  If you look at the. Split at circa like.
• 18:49
  DraftKings is 5050 public. Doesn't know what to do.
• 18:51
  But at circa. Only 31.
• 18:53
  Percent of bets but. 86. Percent of dollars on Oklahoma.
• 18:58
  So a big. Low bets, higher dollar split.
• 19:01
  Tell me, smart money out in Vegas.
• 19:02
  Going with Oklahoma, you do have the true home field.
• 19:06
  Advantage, which if you remember last year, a lot of those.
• 19:08
  True home field. Games the home team really did
• 19:10
  did well. So maybe it's.
• 19:12
  Even more heightened. When it comes to the time of the
• 19:14
  playoffs, but I have two rhythm system matches.
• 19:18
  Both on Oklahoma, first one says Oklahoma should be -2. .4 so
• 19:23
  you're probably. Like, oh, that's pretty damn
• 19:25
  good, right? Minus. 2.4 I can.
• 19:27
  Money line A -. 1 or 1 1/2. But guess what?
• 19:30
  Second model says Oklahoma minus. 5.7 So a big big.
• 19:35
  Rhythm edge here in favor of Oklahoma I also.
• 19:38
  Have a Green Star recommended money line?
• 19:41
  Play from Rhythm on Oklahoma. That's what I'm doing.
• 19:44
  I was able to get Oklahoma. -110 at FanDuel the other angle for
• 19:48
  me. Is defensively because Oklahoma
• 19:52
  has one of the better defenses. In all of college football.
• 19:54
  They're only giving up 14.9 points per game.
• 19:57
  Now. Alabama isn't great either, but.
• 19:59
  They're giving up 18.8. So the combination of.
• 20:03
  Kind of a pick them. To fave or dog to fave line move
• 20:05
  in favor of the. Sooners great bet split at circa
• 20:09
  some fantastic rhythm edges. Here true home field.
• 20:12
  Advantage, better defense and. I'm not going to get into like,
• 20:15
  coaching. But Caitlin de Boer, you.
• 20:17
  Know maybe he proves me wrong. And they went on the.
• 20:19
  Road here but he's. Just not a coach I believe in
• 20:22
  very much. So I'm going.
• 20:23
  Sooners with this one guys. I got Sooners money line.
• 20:27
  Let's go Oklahoma. Win the damn game.
• 20:29
  Survive in advance. -1 tenant FanDuel on the money line.
• 20:33
  Next one for you I'm going to play a dog.
• 20:35
  Here guys, Miami. Florida Texas A&M it is.
• 20:39
  The game on Saturday at noon. I kind of wish it was your late
• 20:42
  game. Which James Madison, Oregon.
• 20:44
  Is your late game that's a spread of like. 21 I don't know
• 20:47
  why they wouldn't put. Miami, Texas A&M.
• 20:49
  As your. 8:00 game. Anyway, whatever.
• 20:52
  But coming into it. We have.
• 20:55
  Miami 10 and 2. They are the 10 seed.
• 20:58
  They've won four in a row. Just beat up on Pittsburgh. 38
• 21:00
  to 7. Texas A and M11 and won the.
• 21:03
  Seventh seed, but they just. Lost to Texas. 27 to 17.
• 21:07
  They started 11 and O so they lost their their.
• 21:10
  Their coming off a loss. Their first loss of the year,
• 21:12
  so. What have you seen across the
• 21:13
  market? Well, this game opened Texas A&M
• 21:17
  again. True home game. -3 1/2 at home.
• 21:20
  Some books I saw. I saw one book even open like. 4
• 21:23
  maybe? 4 1/2 I.
• 21:24
  Think there's maybe a bit of an outlier.
• 21:26
  But mostly -3 1/2 A and. M at home and the.
• 21:29
  Public is saying A and. M All day A&M has been.
• 21:33
  Really, aside from their last loss, they.
• 21:35
  Were like. As high as I think ranked number
• 21:36
  two or three on the year at certain times, you know they at.
• 21:39
  Least got to three, but they're like just rolling.
• 21:43
  So the public is saying. Short spread, better team at.
• 21:46
  Home. Maybe Miami.
• 21:48
  Like when I was young. Here I am.
• 21:49
  I'm going to sound old. I'm 30. 8 years old now but.
• 21:51
  I remember like in high. School, like Miami, was the.
• 21:54
  Coolest team EU. You know they had.
• 21:56
  Like Ed Reed and like all these, all these Jeremy Shockey.
• 21:59
  You remember that? I remember a lot of kids in my
• 22:01
  school. Love Miami but anyway I.
• 22:03
  Don't know, maybe there's a. Feeling of like Miami just.
• 22:05
  You know. Is a paper tiger or just not the
• 22:08
  belief or? Support for EU.
• 22:10
  Like it used to be. So public is going A.
• 22:12
  And M currently you're getting 60. 5% of spread bets on Texas
• 22:16
  A&M. But they open -3 1/2.
• 22:18
  They're not to four 4 1/2 they're.
• 22:21
  Actually juiced toward Miami plus 3 1/2 - 1. 15 and I'm
• 22:25
  seeing. Two books.
• 22:26
  Get down to three. So this is the game I mentioned
• 22:28
  earlier where I want to grab Miami plus three and A.
• 22:30
  Half with the hook. Because it looks like it's.
• 22:33
  Getting down to three and if Miami?
• 22:34
  Loses by three we. Got to win that bet with the
• 22:37
  hook. So again, even though Publix.
• 22:39
  On A&M. The juice is toward Miami and
• 22:42
  the lines falling. Toward Miami tells me smart
• 22:44
  money here on EU. And also at circa it.
• 22:47
  Is down to three. It's always.
• 22:49
  Important to me at Circa. Where are they at?
• 22:51
  Because they're really sharp. Tells me that again, a lot of
• 22:54
  money has come in. They're not.
• 22:55
  They're not willing to give out the hook anymore with Miami.
• 22:58
  So not only is Miami contrarian and heavily back game.
• 23:01
  With some lime freeze juice. You know RLM?
• 23:05
  But if you look at the. Split to DK. 35% bets 73%
• 23:08
  dollars on the spread. I even noticed. 27% bets, 57%
• 23:14
  percent dollars. On the money line.
• 23:16
  So if Miami wins outright? Hey, fine by me.
• 23:18
  I'm. Going 3 1/2 here.
• 23:19
  Then we get to rhythm. I have two rhythm.
• 23:22
  Recommendations both on Miami, Miami plus 3.1 and Miami +2
• 23:27
  point. 4. So it's not a huge edge.
• 23:29
  It's not like yesterday. Where?
• 23:31
  You know, rhythm was basically saying what was it, Delaware
• 23:34
  plus 0.4 and you could get a. 1 1/2 or.
• 23:37
  You know, Old Dominion Plus. 0.5 We got a three.
• 23:40
  And 1/2 or 4. It's not a huge edge, but it is
• 23:42
  an edge, you know, basically. Rhythm is saying it should.
• 23:45
  Be a three. Game 3 point game or.
• 23:47
  Less. And we can still get the hook.
• 23:48
  With a three. And a half and then.
• 23:50
  Lastly, we got a dog. Who can score system match?
• 23:53
  With Carson back, who transferred?
• 23:56
  After being with Georgia, put. Up a pretty Goodyear 20. 5
• 23:59
  touchdowns, but they're averaging 33. .1 points per
• 24:03
  game. So again, if you're.
• 24:04
  Going to cover a number as a dog and his total has fallen.
• 24:07
  Looks like some smart money hit the under 51 1/2.
• 24:10
  Down to like 48 and a half 48. But if you're a dog and you got.
• 24:13
  To cover the number either you got to have a low scoring game
• 24:15
  and play great. Defense.
• 24:17
  Or you got to be able to put up points, keep pace or backdoor
• 24:20
  cover, which Miami hopefully can do.
• 24:23
  Knock on wood. But long story.
• 24:24
  Short guys, public all. Over A&M.
• 24:27
  But the juice, the movement, the liability, it's going toward
• 24:30
  Florida, Miami. Florida.
• 24:32
  So give me the. U.
• 24:33
  Plus 3 1/2. I got them plus 3 1/2 -, 1
• 24:36
  tenant fanatics. Again, a lot of shops though are
• 24:39
  plus. 3 1/2 - 115 and some. Books down to three.
• 24:43
  But going Miami 3 1/2 and Oklahoma money line.
• 24:46
  So that about does it for episode. 4/18 of the all.
• 24:49
  Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 24:52
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
• 24:55
  I always start first by saying thank.
• 24:57
  You. Thank you for listening, thank
• 24:58
  you for tuning in, thank you for taking the time out of your.
• 25:01
  Day to sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 25:04
  If you do, enjoy the insights you look.
• 25:05
  Forward to the pod, hopefully. Whether you tail fade or do.
• 25:08
  Whatever you like. Hopefully I'm.
• 25:10
  Giving you a. Perspective that you're not
• 25:11
  getting anywhere else. Because we're focusing on data,
• 25:14
  not opinions. Because I learned a long.
• 25:16
  Time ago opinions. They're not going.
• 25:17
  To get you far. We all have them, but they're
• 25:20
  they're, they're not always reliable.
• 25:22
  But if you would like to help me grow the pod.
• 25:24
  Please would you? Consider giving it.
• 25:26
  A five star review. On Spotify or.
• 25:28
  ITunes leave a nice comment. If you'd like.
• 25:30
  Under the reviews. Tab hit the follow button,
• 25:33
  retweet the pod when I tweeted. Out each day or recommend?
• 25:36
  The pod to a friend. That would all be awesome of
• 25:38
  you. Next, we're coming close to to
• 25:41
  our Christmas. Here guys, what are we?
• 25:42
  A week away. Yeah, next Thursday.
• 25:44
  So if you are. Scrambling for a last second.
• 25:46
  Gift you enjoy the. Insights You want to learn more
• 25:49
  about data-driven betting or you got to give?
• 25:50
  A gift to your dad, your uncle, your cousin, whoever.
• 25:53
  You still got time. Go to Amazon.com.
• 25:56
  Type in the NFL. Sharp betting playbook or the.
• 25:59
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 26:01
  Both of my. Books I'm very proud of.
• 26:03
  But if you'd. Like to grab one or both?
• 26:05
  As a last second stocking stuffer.
• 26:07
  Or gift. I think that.
• 26:07
  Person in. Your life would appreciate it
• 26:09
  more than a. Pair of socks.
• 26:12
  And if you want to. Bring one or both of those
• 26:13
  books. To the sports book.
• 26:15
  I'll sign them for it and. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 26:17
  ale and we'll sweat some. Sweat some Seahawks together
• 26:20
  tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 26:22
  and Juice? Real yet?
• 26:23
  Well, if you haven't, now's the time.
• 26:26
  You can get great. AI backed models and predictions
• 26:28
  for game bets and player. Props with rhythm again.
• 26:30
  They had great edges on Delaware and Old Dominion.
• 26:32
  Last night, which helped us make those selections.
• 26:34
  Which was great to see. Reminder Rhythm Rundown, 6:00 PM
• 26:37
  Eastern Time tonight on Twitter. But then also juice real.
• 26:41
  If you enjoy the insights and you want.
• 26:43
  To tip your podcast. Host, you're in the giving
• 26:45
  spirit because it's the holiday season.
• 26:47
  I would love for you. Guys to sign up to get the all
• 26:49
  systems. Go best bet picks directly.
• 26:51
  From the Juice Reel app. I am synced up.
• 26:54
  You can follow the plays as soon as I make.
• 26:55
  Them they go. Right to the app and.
• 26:57
  It cost you $4. And 99.
• 26:59
  Cents a week, 5 bucks for a week's worth of plays you're.
• 27:02
  Also going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp
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  mush indicators the arbitrage plays.
• 27:06
  The shop for the best line features all available when you
• 27:09
  download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel.
• 27:11
  And download Rhythm and. Give them a 5 star.
• 27:13
  Review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds?
• 27:17
  Page. Well, if you don't.
• 27:17
  Have one. You need one.
• 27:18
  It's a. Very, very critical and
• 27:20
  important. Tool if you're going to be a
• 27:21
  sports better, especially if you're serious about sports
• 27:24
  betting and you want to get better.
• 27:25
  You know, really the. Key to the puzzle.
• 27:28
  Is tracking the data. What is the line open at?
• 27:31
  Where is it? Now looking at line.
• 27:33
  History pulling that up. Getting live in game.
• 27:35
  Wagering odds, live scoring, being able to track steam.
• 27:39
  Shopping for the best price with.
• 27:40
  All the books in front of you, making sure you get the.
• 27:42
  That extra hook that. Special number?
• 27:44
  Well, you can do it all with odds.
• 27:46
  Logic. So if you want to give.
• 27:47
  Odds. Logic a shot.
• 27:48
  Here's a link. To go to. 7 day free trial, 50%
• 27:51
  off your first month of service. Just go to oddslogic.com slash.
• 27:57
  Josh, 123. Next we got Novig.
• 28:00
  Have you guys downloaded Novig yet?
• 28:02
  Well, it's a sports betting exchange.
• 28:04
  It's not a sports book. And the whole point there is
• 28:06
  you're going to get way. Better juice prices because
• 28:08
  you're not forced to pay whatever.
• 28:09
  The odds makers are making you pay.
• 28:12
  So as a result, you're. Going to get.
• 28:13
  Way better juice, which means you can win at the same rate you
• 28:15
  would at DK or FanDuel. Or venom jam or whatever.
• 28:19
  But you're going to make more money because you're.
• 28:21
  Risking less juice. So for example.
• 28:24
  Right now you can get. Seattle -1 1/2 at.
• 28:26
  Plus one O 4. At Novig.
• 28:28
  You can get Rams plus 1 1/2 at -1 O 5.
• 28:32
  You can get. Rams money line plus 110 Seattle
• 28:34
  Seahawks money line -112. You can go over 43 1/2.
• 28:38
  At plus 111 or under 40. 3 1/2 at. -113.
• 28:43
  So getting better numbers. Is super super important because
• 28:46
  again, it will if you're. And also if you win.
• 28:48
  And they're not going to boot you.
• 28:50
  But if you'd like to download Novig and fund your account when
• 28:53
  you do that there. Should be a little promo.
• 28:54
  Code. All you got to do is.
• 28:56
  Plug in Josh 123 and I'll tack on an extra 25 bucks to your
• 28:59
  account. Next, lastly, before you say our
• 29:03
  farewell. Have you?
• 29:04
  Joined the Splash Sports NFL Playoff Survivor contest yet?
• 29:09
  Well, if you haven't, now is the time.
• 29:12
  You have. Until the first playoff game
• 29:14
  starts, I think it is January 11th I believe.
• 29:17
  But 25 bucks again, kind of cool because you got to think a lot
• 29:20
  about it A. Little differently got to save.
• 29:21
  Your Super Bowl champion for the last week?
• 29:23
  Hopefully you. Survive and get that far.
• 29:25
  So again, if you think the Rams are going.
• 29:27
  To win it all, you. Don't want to use them.
• 29:29
  You know, for the your first play, I mean they'll have a buy
• 29:32
  and I guess it's not a great example.
• 29:34
  You would have to save. Them.
• 29:35
  So it's kind of cool. It's just a different.
• 29:37
  Spin on on a regular survivor but.
• 29:39
  If you'd like to join, you can find that link.
• 29:42
  Or just DM me on. Twitter at Josh under Score
• 29:44
  Insights and I'll get you all set up.
• 29:46
  So as always guys, two final thoughts, one whether I.
• 29:49
  See you at the Borgata in Atlantic City Twin.
• 29:51
  River in Rhode Island the. Brooklyn, New Hampshire.
• 29:53
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
• 29:56
  Encore in Boston, plain Ridge park casino MGM Springfield the
• 29:59
  Nash. And my neck of the.
• 30:00
  Woods on the border of national New Hampshire and Massachusetts
• 30:04
  are out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where
• 30:06
  Billy Walters sends his number runners, where the lowest
• 30:08
  possible is found, the South. Point or sweat?
• 30:11
  And sharp and train plays. Jumping in the stadium.
• 30:13
  Swimming pool cannonball. When you.
• 30:16
  Catch a big ticket at Circa? You know what?
• 30:18
  You're going to do. You're going to walk up to me?
• 30:20
  And show me Delaware Old. Dominion.
• 30:24
  Nothing better than capping a game based on the market.
• 30:27
  Being. Aware of all the motivational.
• 30:28
  Factors and transfer edges. And then coming up.
• 30:32
  Bigly with a couple winners there.
• 30:33
  So show me Delaware. Show me Old Dominion.
• 30:36
  First one's on me, next one. 'S on you.
• 30:37
  We'll post about the book and reinvest it into Seattle.
• 30:41
  Tonight. So as always, guys coming off a
• 30:43
  two and one or one and two A3. And O or an O and three.
• 30:46
  A good night, a bad night. A fantastic night, A terrible.
• 30:49
  Night. A hot streak.
• 30:50
  A cold streak. Somewhere in the middle.
• 30:52
  We just got to stay even keeled, never get too.
• 30:54
  High when? Things are going well.
• 30:56
  Never get too low when we're struggling and nothing's going
• 30:59
  our way because. There's always going to be ups
• 31:01
  and downs. There's going to be times when
• 31:02
  we're hot, there's going to be times when we're struggling,
• 31:04
  there's going to be times when we're grinding.
• 31:06
  Out just just even keel, but we just got to stick.
• 31:08
  Right there in the middle. And play the system matches as
• 31:11
  they come. So as always guys, we're.
• 31:13
  Looking for games that. Fit our model against the public
• 31:16
  with the house with the pros Flat bet.
• 31:18
  Avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that.
• 31:21
  We're going to be successful sports betters.
• 31:23
  So have a great Thursday night everybody.
• 31:25
  Hope to see you for the Rhythm Rundown tonight at 6:00 PM
• 31:28
  Eastern Time. And then hey.
• 31:31
  Go Seahawks. But good luck everybody, I'll
• 31:33
  see you tomorrow. For episode 419.
• 31:36
  A big Friday edition. Of the All Systems Go sports
• 31:38
  betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
• 31:41
  Good luck everybody and have a great Thursday night.