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Navigating the July Earnings Surge · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome to another episode of Spy Trader !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and I am so glad you could join me this morning .
• 0:09
  It is 6 am on Sunday , July 12th , 2026 , here in the Pacific .
• 0:15
  We are standing on the doorstep of a brand new trading week , and the vibe in the market right now is one of cautious optimism .
• 0:22
  We are moving out of the phase of just hoping things go well and into a period of earnings validation .
• 0:29
  The big question for the week of July 13th is whether the numbers can actually back up the hype .
• 0:34
  Looking at the key news , the U.S.
• 0:36
  stock market had a great first half of the year thanks to maturing AI and stabilizing inflation .
• 0:42
  Right now , the Federal Reserve is in a wait and see mode .
• 0:46
  We saw data from the Labor Department last Friday showing that while the jobs market is still tight , wage growth is finally slowing down toward that three percent target we like to see .
• 0:58
  The big mover this week will likely be Wednesday's Retail Sales report .
• 1:03
  This is going to tell us if the American consumer is still resilient despite these high interest rates .
• 1:08
  If you are looking to hedge against a potential slowdown , keep an eye on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , also known as TLT .
• 1:18
  If Retail Sales come in weak , those yields could drop , making TLT a smart play for price appreciation .
• 1:26
  This Friday , July 17th , we officially kick off the big bank earnings season .
• 1:32
  This always sets the tone for the quarter .
• 1:35
  We are expecting heavy hitters like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs to show strong net interest income .
• 1:42
  However , pay close attention to their loanloss provisions because that is the real indicator of how healthy consumer debt actually is .
• 1:52
  For a broad play here , the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLF , is a great way to get exposure to the whole sector .
• 2:00
  Specifically , JPMorgan Chase , ticker JPM , is the gold standard .
• 2:05
  If they announce a dividend hike or more buybacks , it could spark a rally across the Dow .
• 2:10
  In the tech world , the focus is shifting .
• 2:13
  We spent the last two years obsessed with chips and NVIDIA , but now the market wants to see software companies actually making money from AI .
• 2:22
  We are looking at Microsoft and Alphabet to see how their AI Copilots are helping the bottom line .
• 2:28
  Tech might trade sideways this week as we wait for bigcap earnings later this month , but for longterm believers , the Invesco QQQ Trust remains the primary vehicle for growth .
• 2:39
  If you want something a bit more valueconscious in tech , the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , is a solid alternative focused on enterprise software .
• 2:51
  We also have to talk about the 2026 Midterm Elections coming up .
• 2:56
  Political uncertainty is starting to nudge market volatility higher .
• 3:00
  Because of this , defensive sectors like healthcare are looking attractive .
• 3:05
  The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLV , is a classic safe haven , and keep an eye on UnitedHealth Group later this month .
• 3:16
  Real estate is also making a comeback as the Fed's tightening cycle winds down , making the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ , look very interesting if inflation stays cool .
• 3:28
  Finally , do not forget about international diversification .
• 3:32
  Emerging markets in Southeast Asia are benefiting from new manufacturing strategies .
• 3:37
  The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF , VWO , is a great buffer if the US dollar happens to weaken this week .
• 3:47
  Overall , we are looking at a potentially volatile but slightly positive week for the S&P 500 .
• 3:53
  If you are feeling a bit heavy on tech , you might consider rebalancing five to ten percent of your portfolio into financials like XLF or even total bond funds like AGG to prepare for some lateweek swings .
• 4:06
  Thanks for tuning in to Spy Trader .
• 4:09
  Stay smart , stay diversified , and let us have a great week on the charts !