Latest / Man in America Podcast / Silver's "Crash" Is a Setup. Here's What the Big Banks Are Really Doing w/ Micah Haines

Transcript

Silver's "Crash" Is a Setup. Here's What the Big Banks Are Really Doing w/ Micah Haines · Man in America Podcast

• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Silver did something that should never happen in a healthy market. It rocketed from $50 an ounce to 120 in about twelve weeks. Then it gave almost half of that back dropping to 60. And if all you do is glance at the headline, you'd think that the run was over. You'd think it's time to get out.
• 0:31
  Here's what those headlines aren't telling you. While retail investors are panicking and dumping their positions, JPMorgan, the largest holder of physical silver on Earth, just accumulated over 21,000,000 ounces in just six weeks. And for the first time in history, they're long on both physical and paper silver. So think about that. The biggest player in this market is buying with both hands at the same exact time, the moment that everyone else is running for the exit.
• 0:58
  My guest today has been tracking exactly this kind of move for years where the manipulation is happening and where the real money is actually going. His name is Micah Haines. He works directly with everyday families at Noble Gold, walking them personally through physical gold and silver. I'm not talking about paper products or ETFs, but the actual metal in your hands. I mean, personally.
• 1:21
  So Micah gives out his own email address to clients in this interview. When my own mother was moving her IRA and her custodian dragged their feet on the rollover for almost two months, his team was right there with her until they got it done. So he watches the COT report. It's a commission of trade traders data that shows you what the big banks and hedge funds are actually positioned for, not what they're saying on TV. He's walked clients through every twist of the market, the highs, the corrections, and all of it, and he's still saying the same thing that he was back in January.
• 1:50
  The fundamentals never changed, only the sentiment did. So in this interview, you're gonna find out why Micah thinks this pullback from a 120 to 60 isn't a warning sign. It's the best buying window of the entire cycle. You're gonna hear exactly why JPMorgan is quietly stockpiling millions of ounces of physical silver while everyday investors are being shaken out of their positions. We're And gonna look at something the US Mint just is raising a lot of eyebrows, pricing a commemorative gold coin at nearly five times today's spot price right before this fourth of July weekend.
• 2:22
  Once you see what the institutions are actually doing with their own money versus what they're telling you to do with yours, you're gonna have a better judgment for yourself and for your family. Welcome to Man in America, a voice of reason in a world gone mad. I'm your host, Seth Holehouse. On this show, I talk to real Americans with real solutions to the real problems that we're facing today. I help you connect the dots between the problems we see in the present with decisions made by powerful people in the past.
• 2:50
  Because once we understand how we got here and what the real history of America actually is, we can remember where we came from, really learn from the past, and make real changes for a better future. Now before we start, please make sure you hit that like button. It helps with the algorithms, whatever platform you're watching on. It helps get this information out to more people. Also, please subscribe and share this with someone who needs to hear it the most.
• 3:12
  Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments. Also, that every Man in America show is done as a podcast as well. So if you wanna listen instead of watch, just go to your favorite podcast app. And if you use Apple Podcasts, you wanna do a real favor for me, please leave a review there. Because actually, really prioritizes podcasts that have those reviews.
• 3:30
  So if you like the show, leave a review. It'll help me to reach more people. Alright. Let's go and get into it with my guest today, Micah Haines. Micah, man, it's good to have you back on.
• 3:39
  It's been a little while, but I'm just looking forward to digging into some things with you. So thanks for being here with us today.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Thanks for having me on, Seth. It's always a pleasure. And, you know, lots of ground to cover. Honestly, it's been kind of a protracted five, six months since the peaks that we saw in gold and silver back in January.
• 3:58
  We'll obviously get into it, but I think that these are normal, periods lasting longer than what I even thought. But that's what a market does, is it test your patience, your your faith. And, I I think we're still actually seeing some positive stuff the last few days, and we can get right into that. So thanks again for having me on.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Of course. Yeah. I think that's that's kind of what what the point of this this show is today is just to just to look at where things are at because it's been it's been a roller coaster. Right?
• 4:27
  You know, it was exciting, especially second half of last year. It really started taking off around Christmas, New Year's. You saw these record highs. Then we've seen this pullback, consolidation pullback. And so I think it's just a question I'm having is like, okay.
• 4:40
  I haven't lost my faith in silver. You know what mean? It's like, okay. I'm still kind of I I've never been looking at silver as this kind of short term thing. Hang on.
• 4:48
  Buy it and double it and sell it. Right? So it's kind of it's a fundamental belief. Right? But I wanna understand better just the the mechanisms and what you're seeing.
• 4:57
  And so I we'll start with I'll pull up just the, silver price which I've got right now, which is just over $60 an ounce. Yeah. We did see it. We saw a bump kind of you know, we were down in the around 58, 57, and we saw a little bit of spike as, you know, things market opened up. You know, we're, you know, hovering in the low sixties.
• 5:16
  If we look at, say, the six month, right, that's where we're kinda looking at, okay, yeah, we hit these peaks, you know, nearing one twenty back in, January, then we saw that sharp, sharp drop. Right? Like, the kind of, like, historic drop Sigma
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: sigma you know, five sigma events, the most unnatural and, you those things. And now look at the one year, Seth, because I just want to put things into context. I think zooming out helps a lot. So yeah, if we look from a year ago, of course, looking at the six month chart, we've dropped from $120 to $60 50% retracement. But from a year ago, Seth, we're actually up over 100%.
• 5:52
  We had 30 silver this time last year. Now, silver does have that tendency to go sideways within a price range for a very long time, and then it can shoot out of that price range and do a two, three, four times move. But then what you expect is that it has to give up some of that big gain to then retest old breakout levels and resistance levels as new floors and support, and then it can go sideways in a range again, but at a much higher price. So it's basically doing that now. It's creating a big floor in the 60s, whereas before it was a big floor in the 30s.
• 6:28
  Now to go from 30 to 120 back to 60, I like to put it into perspective. If I had told my investors this time last year that you were going to be sitting on a double within twelve months, they would have been extremely happy. Now, if you had no contact to news or X or the media or anything, and you hadn't known that we were actually at 120 before having to retest the 60 zone, you'd be ecstatic. Go from 30 to 60, you'd be pumped. But you're obviously not super stoked about the idea of having been to 120 and then having to retrace.
• 7:04
  There have been a number of factors and obviously unexpected market events, like the new Fed chair who came out very hawkish, Kevin Warsh at his first FOMC meeting. You've had the war in Iran that's obviously spiked the dollar and oil prices and things like that and inflation expectation. And that's just made it a harder environment to trade. But like you said, Seth, like gold and silver, physical precious metals are not a trade. They're a long term hedge and a long term asset that should be seen primarily as a safe haven asset.
• 7:38
  Yes, you do get paid to own the right types of assets in the right environment. And I would say to you that none of the fundamentals have changed over the last six months. Of course, price has been very volatile and it's fluctuated a lot, But silver shortages and minor output being at ten, fifteen year lows and industrial demand being at all time highs and being in the sixth year of a silver deficit to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces, none of that stuff has changed. It's certainly not part of the narrative now that price is down. But back in January, these were all the reasons why it couldn't go down.
• 8:12
  And as far as sentiment being one of my favorite indicators and a contrarian indicator, you kind of want to go with the other, the opposite way of the street. And so again, January, silver couldn't go down, the shorts were dead, the banks couldn't hold it back, and all these various things. In hindsight, obviously, that was a very good top indicator, at least short term top indicator. Now it's as though silver's never going to go back up. It's probably going to retest 50 and all these types of things.
• 8:42
  And I think that the sentiment being at an absolute low is actually probably the best contrarian setup for us to see a rally out of here. I'll say a few things. I expect new all time highs in both metals. I do actually think that's happening before the end of the year. Seasonally, and if you overlay price data, fifty years worth of price data over top of each other, June and I know we're at the July 1 today, but June actually happens to be the worst month of the year for gold and silver prices.
• 9:13
  And often, it marks a significant low for the rest of the year, too. Now, that doesn't mean that we couldn't see a little bit lower gold and silver prices from here. But I would say that the downside risk versus the upside risk is an asymmetrical bet, one that's worth taking. And to elaborate on that just a little bit here, you know that in October, we hit $50 for the first time in fourteen years. We had never, ever had a silver price that was north of $50 And so $50 prior to October was the ultimate boss.
• 9:44
  It was actually a huge, what's called a resistance level, basically a big ceiling on the price. Well, when we broke through that, it didn't take long, about ten, twelve weeks, for us to go from $50 to $120 Now in technical analysis, when you have a price ceiling, you want to break through it and then retest it as a floor before you go on to make new higher highs and put in new resistance, well, we had a gap between fifty and one hundred and twenty. And all the levels in between, sixty, seventy, eighty, ninety, one hundred, those hadn't really been retested. So we've spent a lot of the last six months churning within a consolidated zone, which actually has been between sixty and ninety. We've had three attempts to break through 90.
• 10:31
  We've had three attempts to break through 60. On the fourth attempt, which was just at the beginning of last week, finally we lost the 60 handle, and everyone was saying, Okay, we're going to have to go to 50 at that point. Well, in my mind, a retest of 50 wouldn't actually be all that disappointing. Actually think on a technical basis, that may just need to be the previous ceiling now being tested as major support and has a really sturdy floor. But again, we're already back into the 60s as of this morning.
• 11:01
  I think that the dip into the 50s could be something that's called a false breakdown, which actually is a very bullish setup. And what a false breakdown is is kind of a head fake. It means that you're losing a particular support level. Everyone's getting bearish and thinking it has to go to the next one, which would be 50 from here. But we never really got that close.
• 11:20
  I think it was 50 six-fifty at one point, but really only for a few hours before it got back up into the higher 50s. And now, again, we're back into 60s. So all of this to say, pullbacks within a structural bowl are very normal, whether it was 'seventy one to 'eighty or 2001 to 2011. Both gold and silver had 30% to 50% pullbacks along the way. These are necessary flushes of price and momentum and technical resetting and testing old breakout zones and also resetting sentiment.
• 11:53
  And then once you've done that, we have accomplished all those things over the last six months, Seth, we now have the fuel to be able to put in another big rally. And we normally see those in the fall. This fall will obviously, I think, be no exception with midterms and other big geopolitical things on the radar screen as well. So I think that as good as time as any to buy. Again, you're not buying it as a trade.
• 12:16
  You don't want to buy it to hold it for a couple months or a couple weeks. We suggest that your minimum hold period should be a couple years. And I'm still looking for much higher gold and silver prices into 2030. I think that that'll be kind of in and around the end of this cycle. Now it could be a year or two on either side of that.
• 12:33
  We have to see how things go, and of course we don't have crystal balls. So you need to buy it knowing that it's actually safety first, return second. And, a lot of our sales right now is all repeat and, referrals. So people who own it a lot lower are actually adding quite a bit here, which I think is constructive and positive to see as well.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I think there's a few things just to kind of overlay this, is because, you know, I first started moving money into silver and gold because I looked at it as a safe haven. Right? It was really about it's the same reason why I've got a whole room full of food, right, and ammo. It's this idea that if there's a CBDC, if there's a a breakdown, if anythings that could happen anything that could happen, that's the insurance policy. That's the safety.
• 13:20
  Right? And that's my perspective on it. But then looking at a few things, I got a couple things to show you. You know, one is this article right here. JPMorgan is long on silver.
• 13:30
  Right? So it says and this is this is a couple days old. It says, for those of you who who don't know, JPMorgan is holding the world's largest stockpile of physical silver, having amassed over 750,000,000 physical ounces. Over the last six weeks alone, JPMorgan has accumulated more than 21,000,000 ounces. This brings a few questions to mind.
• 13:48
  How was, JPM able to accumulate that much physical silver in such a short period of time? What funds did they use? And why would they do this? Right? So this is this is really key.
• 13:59
  Right? And this bold part here says, this is the first time in history that JPMorgan has been long in both physical and paper silver. And so if you look at again, it's kind of what are the banks doing? What are the family offices doing? JPMorgan right now, they're accumulating right now.
• 14:17
  They're taking advantage of this this price, but they're not obviously, if they think, hey. Silver's gonna drop back on to 30 at the end of the year, they're not gonna quickly accumulate 21,000,000 ounces. Right? That that they're looking at a heavy loss if that's the case. You know, talking a $100,000,000 plus loss on that.
• 14:33
  But something else kinda looking at is like, okay, what is we look at this price action, and we look at you know, we know that silver and gold are both rigged in many ways. You know, they they use the paper market to flood the, you know, to flood the kind of supply demand issue and make it so that, oh, it feels very abundant. And you see then the paper price drops because they dump all these paper certificates in the market. And then so they can obviously use that. It makes you think, okay.
• 15:01
  If JPMorgan quickly bought all this silver, I wonder if they were also involved to make sure the price went back down because maybe they're planning a big buy. And, like, okay. Hey. Let's just kinda push things down, push things down. Okay.
• 15:12
  Hey. We hit that floor. Scoop it all up. Huge thanks to Rumble because they've never censored me. They've never ever censored me before.
• 15:21
  It's never even been a question on the table with these guys. It doesn't matter whether I'm talking about Ep Epstein or Today's Stuff or SRA or MK Ultra. They truly have supported free speech, and I give them a lot of thanks to that. But they've also have done some things, which you might be interested. Look, if you're into crypto, if that's kinda your thing, you you might wanna look into the Rumble Wallet.
• 15:41
  Right? So it's really just a kind of a question of asking how much control you have over your money. Right? So technology has changed, and it's changing how everything about how money is working. Right?
• 15:49
  So crypto started as this niche, but it's really gone mainstream. Faster payments, more control for your middlemen. It's not this hype. It's where a lot of things are actually going. And if you're interested in crypto, getting started is easier than you think.
• 16:01
  So with Rumble Wallet, you can buy Bitcoin. You can hold dollar backed stable coins. You can even own digital gold backed by real gold all in one place. So it's a non custodial crypto wallet, which means that you, not a bank or a platform, so you control access to your funds. The setup is simple.
• 16:17
  It connects you with MoonPay, so you can use your debit card, credit card, or bank account and be up and running in minutes. For a limited time, you can start with $10 in US stable coin by downloading the Rumble wallet and entering my exclusive promo code MIA10 when you sign up. So you can even use your Rumble wallet to support your favorite Rumble creators like me directly. So do this now. So scan the QR code or just click on the link in the description, which is wallet.rumble.com/mia.
• 16:44
  So wallet.rumble.com/mia and download your free Rumble wallet. From there, you can set up your wallet, enter your promo code m I a 10 to get your $10 in US stable coin. And it's a limited time offer. So act now. So take control of your money.
• 16:55
  Get started with Rumble Wallet today. There are some terms and conditions. You can see that information in the show description. There's a little, post that someone put together on, Twitter. I wanna just kinda read through this.
• 17:08
  And so this is so German Swiss silver expert, Jochen Stager, just laid out the true cause of Silver's savage collapse. It says, the metal fell off from a January peak of $1.15 an ounce all the way to 57. That's a brutal 50% loss in a matter of months. Yet Stager insists the fundamentals have never looked stronger, and the real story lies in the desperate futures market games. It says the manipulation mechanism, huge institutions have piled into massive short positions on the COMEX silver futures market.
• 17:43
  Open interest now sits above a 104,000 contracts, which equals more than 50,000,000 ounces on paper. The whole Comex only holds around 326 ounces 326,000,000 ounces with roughly 86,000,000 available for actual trading. These players are shorting themselves deeper into trouble just to stay afloat a little longer, continues the physical market they can't control. The world has suffered through eight straight years of silver deficit that removed 1,300,000,000 ounces from available stocks. Industrial demand continues to surge for solar power, electronics, defense, and more.
• 18:21
  New mine supply cannot possibly close the gap fast enough even if everything goes perfectly, and China has turned into an unstoppable buyer while controlling 70% of the world's silver refining capacity. Then goes the desperate bank play. American banks have already racked up $30,616,000,000,000 dollars in unrealized losses this quarter. They're using the futures market to manage positions and avoid even bigger disasters. Stager warns, this approach is like trying to put a fire out with gasoline and sets the stage for explosive moves.
• 18:53
  The correct response right now says, most retail investors buy at the top in excitement and sell at the bottom in fear. I couldn't agree more. Says, the winning move is to buy every dip in smaller tranches and hold physical metal tight. Strayer himself keeps adding to his silver stack daily because he sees this drop as a gift. And the bottom line, it's him right there talking.
• 19:15
  The bottom line, it says, Silver's plunge is nothing more than a paper market illusion created by institutions fighting for survival while the physical world tightens under relentless demand and Chinese accumulation. The fundamentals scream for much higher prices, and the window to buy is wide open. This is the sound of a manipulated market beginning to crack under its own weight. So what are what do you think about what this person said here?
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I couldn't agree more. I think, again, the fundamentals are extremely strong. They were in January, and no one would shut up about them. And they still are now, but no one's talking about it.
• 19:51
  And so that big sentiment indicator, I think, is key. If if the reasons for why it couldn't go down haven't changed, then obviously it can still go up and it will. But let's talk about JPMorgan. You did point out in that first article, they are actually the biggest holder of physical silver from an institutional standpoint. They hold the biggest silver position, they have for years, actually since they amalgamated with Chase after the 'eight financial crisis.
• 20:21
  So they stand to benefit from a much higher silver price, but they actually did have record shorts this fall going into the end of the year, where we obviously saw that price shoot up from $50 to $120 Now, you've heard this, and I've heard this over the years more times than I would like to admit, but the claim that if silver goes over a certain price, the banks are going to explode, or they're going to have billions in losses and they'll end up having to close their doors or what have you. Now, obviously, we saw the run-in silver and no bank blew up. There was actually some money apparently provided to JPMorgan at some point by the Fed that people assumed or speculated was to help them cover their short losses in silver. But the key point, I think, is that they probably got caught offside with massive short positions during this incredible run. And the fundamental structure or the fundamental pictures for why gold and silver have to have much, much, much higher prices in the future.
• 21:22
  Again, it hasn't changed. So they realize, geez, we better do whatever we can to flush price back down to where we can cover those shorts and get rid of these losses. And I think that's what's been happening. So if you're a fiscal buyer, this should be a gift. If you're a paper trader or an options trader or a short term day trader, obviously it's been very tough.
• 21:43
  But like I said, the last six months, we've been consolidating in this box of 60 to ninety, sixty to ninety, sixty to 90, and we've done it a few times both up and down on either side of that. That's not been a very helpful market for bulls or for bears on the trading side. Right? Because if you think it's shooting through 90 and you want to go long, were disappointed. But if you thought it was going to break through 60 and have to go back to 50 or below, you've also been frustrated and haven't been making any money on the short side.
• 22:10
  But institutions, I think, have been covering their shorts. They obviously still hold a lot of physical. And as that first article points out, they've been buying it in a record level. I think they're taking it off of the COMEX, and obviously Western exchanges have been hemorrhaging physical metal to institutions and to the East. And I'll just quickly note that a recent piece of news out of China is that they are instituting new paper trading rules where they have a 140% requirement for capital, meaning you can't actually use margin to trade paper gold like you used to.
• 22:51
  Essentially having these higher margin prices or these higher margin requirements is meant to actually impose restrictions on the paper side of the market. Again, owning physical gold and silver like we sell, you have nothing to worry about on a long enough time frame. You'll do extremely well. But the paper side of the market, as you know, is how they end up being able to manipulate the metal's price by selling hundreds of times more metal than they actually have on paper. And I've used this analogy on your show before, Seth.
• 23:22
  If you could sell your home 300 times to drive down the average price of all the homes on your street, you would obviously be convicted of some type of fraud. And let's not forget, people at JPMorgan have actually gone to jail. They were criminally convicted of silver spoofing back in the 2011 talk that we saw in silver. And so let's not pretend that these aren't criminal, fraudulent actions. They do happen.
• 23:52
  It's just that, obviously, these institutions get away with being able to do it and a lot more. So I would say, yeah, fundamentals of the market are still extremely strong. For all the reasons mentioned in that Stagler's tweet, I think that we actually do see new all time highs again in medium term. It's the short term. I always say to people, look, I can tell you on a long enough time horizon, you're going to do extremely well here, but it's not the money that we'll make in gold and silver.
• 24:19
  It's the money that you'll keep. That's the most important part about physical precious metals. But again, there's a time where they are the best performing asset and the safest, and we've seen that over the last couple of years, barring the last six months, of course, with this correction. So I think that institutions are covering shorts. They're abandoning their paper positions that they know were big losers.
• 24:41
  If we do end up seeing another big vicious spike in silver, they do not want to be caught offside again. They want to be able to have their long positions, which of course they do, so that they benefit from that. And again, with China implementing these paper trading restrictions, think that that's a positive sign to eliminate the suppression aspect. But we won't probably see any improvements in that regard in the West for some time because I think that they'll try to keep it down as long as they can or until it makes sense. There's something that I track, and I haven't done it in the last few weeks, but it's called the COT report or COT, the Commission of Traders Report, and it's released every Friday.
• 25:20
  And the COT or the COT report tells you all these various banks and hedge funds and what their net positioning is in terms of their longs and shorts. And so they're never always just long or always just short. They usually have positions of both, but their net positioning, whether it's they have 10,000 contracts that are long and 5,000 contracts that are short, means that they're net long 5,000 contracts. So when you look at net positioning, it's often a pretty big indicator as to what happens next in the market because of the manipulation and the suppression. They want to be in charge of the situation.
• 25:59
  And what I'm looking for is that report that shows that they're actually finally net long again. And I think that that'll mean that they're going to really let the gas get pressed down to the floor in terms of silver price without having to hit the brakes at all. So they just don't want to get caught like they did in the fall, they've been covering that over the last six months. That's just another reason why I think we're here.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Well, you mentioned you you use analogy of trying to sell your house a 100 times over. Well, I I pulled up, usdebtclock.org where they track. And so it's roughly right now, it's you know, paper silver is at almost 400 to one, and paper gold being at almost one fifty to one, which also shows you why I think this is one indicator as to a lot of other indicators as to why you'll see paper has a lot more swing to it. You know, because gold, you know, kinda spiked up to, you know it didn't spike up to, say, 5,500 and then dropped back down to twenty seven fifty. Right?
• 26:54
  Gold still last I checked let's see where's gold at. So it's still, you know, above 4,000. Right?
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: 4,000.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: So the swing is a lot less, but you can also see it's, oh, okay. Well, if the paper markets are one of the key things that they use to manipulate these prices, you can see they've gotten almost triple, right, more than double, the amount of paper silver on the market as they do paper gold. And so it's it becomes much more easy to easier to manipulate. And this is a this this little simple graphic, you know, kinda cheesy looking. I'll just kinda look at the website.
• 27:29
  But this right here illustrates this is it. This is the problem. We still have an insane amount of paper silver that's out there. And I think a lot of people, especially during, you know, the beginning of the year when you saw that a lot of the bigger banks and the bullying banks were having difficulty delivering, I think at that point, people were trying to exit their paper positions and trying to get ahold of physical. But once that that ends, they forget about it, and they go back into paper again.
• 27:57
  Right? So you don't see that people are really wising up to what's happening here.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say a few things. I think that the trend of people realizing that they have owned the paper representation of gold and silver in their portfolios, and when they finally realize that it's actually the time to own the actual commodity you don't want to own a picture of a gun. You can't protect yourself with that. You need to own the actual gun. You can't expect that you'll be protected in the way that gold and silver can save you from a dollar collapse or banking collapse or any kind of financial crisis by not owning the actual commodity.
• 28:35
  So the trend of actually switching SLV positions to physical silver positions, we're still seeing a lot of that. A lot of, I would say, a lot of investors, retail investors, who years ago had a hunch that gold and silver would start doing well. But their typical financial advisor doesn't sell physical bullion like we do, nor do they recommend it. My quip on that is you never go to a Chevy dealer asking what kind of Ford you should buy. So when people go to their financial advisors and say, hey, I think I need a little bit of gold and silver, they go, fantastic, no problem.
• 29:07
  We can get you into the ETFs. That's a great way to hold it. Well, it's not long term. You have exposure to the price action, but again, you can't do anything with the paper representation of the asset. You can't power a solar panel.
• 29:19
  You can't put it in anything that actually requires the commodity itself. And we, as individual investors, require ownership of the commodity itself. And so that trend is still happening. But I think that it'll probably accelerate again once price starts to move. But what I'd say is essentially, again, the whole silver shortage, banks can't deliver and dealers, we did end up having, like in January, there was a blitz of physical buying, a blitz of physical demand.
• 29:46
  And through the years, we've seen these, it comes and goes in waves. When we had that, yeah, we were running low. We never ran out. And I always said, hey, I don't see an actual shortage happening at any time. But if this kind of buying pressure persists, we could certainly see reduced inventory, longer time frames for delivery, those types of things.
• 30:09
  And also the spreads between different sizes and different coins. So 100 ounce bars, normally the most cost effective. Then you've got kilos and 10 ounce bars and one ounce rounds or one ounce coins. And you could often see during these big, intense buying blitzes, as I call them, a dollar each between the price per ounce from each size increment. Right now, it's a matter of pennies, like a one ounce round versus a 100 ounce bar.
• 30:35
  I think this morning on the trades that I placed, it's like a $0.35 difference. Well, those premiums or those spreads between the different sized bulletin items, they blow out during these mad dashes for physical metal. But all the calls that we were running out and there wasn't enough and all that stuff, you never heard an end to that. And again, now no one's talking about it. Our inventories are fantastic.
• 30:55
  They always were. We never ran out. But this is a great time to buy because of that collapse in the premiums because the buying pressure has now cooled off. And like I said, seasonally, that's normal. June often marks the best June, July often mark the best months to buy.
• 31:09
  But this shift to physical assets, we see it happening all over the world in this strategic geopolitical focus on strategic resources, whether it was Venezuela and the oil there or RIN and the oil there, the South Americas with various copper deposits and different metals and stuff like that. I think that we're going to continue to see that at a sovereign level. I think the world is shifting from a world of intangibles to a world of tangibles. And I think, too, like in investing, you have things that come and go trend wise. So the last thirty years have been dominated by financial assets.
• 31:46
  Stocks have done incredibly well since 2001. The commodity space has actually been underinvested and undervalued, and that includes precious metals, but it, of course, includes a lot of other things like copper and lumber and battery metals and other things. Exactly. And I think where we're going with a continuation of the collapse of the value of the dollar, and not just the US dollar but of fiat currencies in general all over the world, is that things that you can put your hands on in physical commodities will dominate the investing landscape for the next ten, twenty, thirty years. Right?
• 32:22
  So it comes and goes. But we're just at the beginning of this, and I think the primary beneficiaries will be, the monetary metals.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's, you know, similar to looking at if you're looking at this larger cycles that we're I think we are moving back from this fake back into real. Because it's it's kinda what happens. You look at this there's a natural balance. I think it's how God created the, you know, the the universe.
• 32:46
  Right? There's a balance between everything. And you oftentimes move to one extreme, and it snaps back and it pulls back to the other extreme. And so I think that, you know, if we look at really good instance, 2,000, the Internet, exciting. Right?
• 33:00
  Social media, exciting. Email, exciting. Right? You know, you don't have a real physical paper in your hand. It's just this digital representation of it.
• 33:08
  Right? And so you saw this huge boom, and then and then you get into AI. There's always excitement about AI, this artificial intelligence. But But I think that what you're seeing, especially with younger generations, is they're rejecting it. Right?
• 33:21
  It's actually interesting looking at it. Like, the the younger generations are rejecting AI. You would have thought, oh, the younger generation is always the more advanced. They're more technical. They like the new gadgets.
• 33:32
  They like the new stuff, but you're seeing a very, you know, opposite trend of people that want to go back to what's real. And I think that that's kind of what's happening just culturally with our with with kind of the overall kind of consciousness of people is that
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: They've been pushing fake, fake, fake, fake, fake. And now you go online. Is it is it a bot? Is it a real person? Is this Instagram health influencer I follow, is it even a real person, or is it some fat dude in Somalia that is using AI to create some beautiful young blonde that you think has a crush on you?
• 34:03
  Right? So I think that the you're seeing the same thing is that with with this, it's like, you know, this is real. Right? Like, this is actual real. This is real money.
• 34:13
  And and that's what kinda brings it back to me is that I look at that, I look at, like, oh, gosh, Silver's down to, you know, from 70 to 65 or whatever it is. It's like, okay. But it is still real. And that's the thing is that when when they tell us you owe nothing and be happy, I think, yeah, anything that they've convinced us to trade real for for fake, paper this, paper that, digital this, at a certain point, those things get cut off. Right?
• 34:37
  They own that paper. They control that paper, and it's just like they control the digits on your, your banking app. You log in like, oh, I've got a million dollars in my bank account. Well, until it gets converted into some sort of, you know, digital token, because they're saying, oh, yeah, the the old banking system is failing, and so we're gonna convert it to these new, you know, centralized banking system. So that's the thing is that it's it's it's just this this
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: And it's this whole problem crisis react
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Like if they want to get us on some kind of social credit score, CBDC system, they have to have some kind of major financial crisis to be able to make that shift, just like they wanted to vaccinate all of us and they need to create a big planned global pandemic in order to do that to, again, create the problem that allows them to introduce the solution. But a couple of comments on what you said. So tangibles are actually the secret source to dynastic wealth. And in history, there are three asset classes that family dynasties, so that have intergenerational wealth consistently managed and consistently there, holding its value through centuries. And there's three main asset classes that achieve dynastic wealth, and it's real estate, fine art, and precious metals.
• 35:54
  And it's because whatever the currency is at the time, obviously, we measure things by putting a dollar value to them, but you have to remember that currencies actually have cycles as well. Currencies do get reset. It does take a long time for those to play out, although I'd say we're closer to the end of this currency cycle than the beginning. So whatever we end up with, whether it is a CBDC or it's some new gold backed currency or whatever the case may be, of course there's a lot of speculation about that now with the July 4 coming up, and maybe we'll talk about that in just a sec here. But whatever the new currency is, your hard assets, your home, your property, your land, your gold, your silver, your fine art always gets repriced in that next currency at much higher valuations.
• 36:39
  If you just have ink on a page or digits on a screen and just intangible assets that are dollar denominated, well, if the dollar goes away, there's nothing there behind it that you can knock on, that you can touch, that survives that currency transition. And in terms of what potential catalysts are for a big financial correction or crisis that allows this problem crisis solution thing to be kicked off, think it's actually going to be the popping of the AI bubble, and I'm happy you talked about that. I actually agree with the comment that millennials are actually some of the most skeptical people of it because it's actually going to hurt them the most. You look at job prospects for 20 year olds or people coming out of college or any kind of post secondary institution now, and it's like the bleakest situation you've ever had, right? I don't think it makes sense to go and do a law degree or get your MBA or any of those things that used to set you up for a pretty solid white collar job, I think actually that stuff's the most at risk.
• 37:39
  And this generation is definitely feeling it. So they're the most afraid of where this could go. But AI, I think right now, with the amount of money that's flowed into it, the amount of hype and mania we have around it, it's very reminiscent of the dot com bubble, which in essence, it's not that the Internet didn't change the world. Of course, it did. And I think it actually changed the way that we live and work more significantly than was ever anticipated.
• 38:03
  But what happens is that in a very short time period, as the bubble is beginning to inflate, all of these earnings and all of these things that they think they're going to achieve get priced into an extremely truncated timeline. And in 1997, 'eight, 'nine, two thousand, again, .com stocks were just overpriced and overhyped because it didn't change the world in 2001. It probably took until 'five, 'six, 'seven before everyone's really up on email, everyone's got a smartphone, everyone's doing online business. And so with AI, I think it's similar. I think they're overbuilding these data centers.
• 38:40
  They're factoring way too much earnings. The uptake is actually very little. The amount of revenue that businesses are seeing come from these implementations of AI is very little overall. And it's like we're spending way more money on it than it's ever going to bring back in a short enough time period. So I think we could see something similar to the .com bubble where the NASDAQ crashed by 85% in 2001, and it never got back to that pre crash level until 2013.
• 39:09
  So it took twelve years to pull out of the tech stock bear market. I think that we're very likely going to see a similar size crash, let's call it 50 plus percent. I don't want to say it's 85%, but I can't tell you when, Seth. That's the big thing, is I can't tell you when. It could be a year away.
• 39:25
  It could be two years away. I obviously think there's a political incentive to keeping markets propped up and liquid, obviously, until at least after midterms. And my kind of working theory is at some point in 2027, we'll end up seeing a pretty significant stock market crash. And I think that is the first domino to fall. The amount of leverage in the system, the malinvestment that's occurred, I think that when the AI bubble pops, it'll be like a .com, almost kind of like the decline in the value of tech stocks will be like a 2,001, like an 85 plus percent.
• 40:01
  But then it'll be like a 2008 GFC or a 1929 where it just ripples across the world. It's not just going to be a US stock market crash or
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: It's not just the housing market, right? So
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: much And add housing to the bubble too, right? We have the most expensive real estate in the world and historically most expensive real estate market ever here as well. So it's kind of like an everything bubble, but I think it's certainly led by AI. And I think if you have one bubble pop and one domino that falls and then they all start to fall and banks start to fall, then you have this, well, what's the government going to do? They're going to rush in, print a bunch of money, lower rates.
• 40:39
  And that's what I refer to as the next big print. We saw one in 'eight. We saw one in 2020 during the COVID lockdowns. The next big print will only occur once this bubble pops and correction occurs. And it's on the other side of that that we probably end up with a failure of the currency and then transition to some new type of system.
• 41:01
  Now, I would prefer obviously to return to a gold standard, but I think it could easily be CBDCs or maybe some kind of digital gold standard. Who knows? But the point is all roads lead to your wealth needing to be in gold and silver, at least a certain amount of it, that you've got that insurance. And I think obviously this is going to take a while to play out. I don't have a crystal ball.
• 41:23
  I like to have a little bit of a roadmap in mind. I've shared that with you guys here, but we'll see how close we get to that. I obviously don't hope for the worst. I actually hope for the best, but I prepare for the worst. And I think that's part of what everybody needs to do to get their get their house in order financially and otherwise.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Yes. The world is getting crazier every day. We know that every time you check the news, another crisis, conflict. You can't control what happens out there. You should know that by now, but you can control how you prepare for it.
• 41:49
  And you can make sure no matter what happens, you have the basics covered in each one of these disasters that could reach your doorsteps. Things like having food to eat when the shelves are empty. That's a big one. So when it comes to food security, MyPatron Supply is a great option out there for you. Very affordable.
• 42:03
  They've helped millions of Americans get prepared. They've got over 90,005 star reviews. Right now, you can get their best selling three month emergency food supply for a $100 off. They rarely do deals like this. Check it out.
• 42:15
  If you wanna get stock up, just get a three month supply. Highly recommend having at least a month. Honestly, at least get to a month. Three months is great. If you wanna check it out, go to preparewithmiametamerica.
• 42:26
  So preparewithmia.com. The food kit gives you about 2,000 calories a day, lasts up to twenty five years, and again, it's a $100 off. So preparewithmia.com and go get yours right now. There's been a lot of kinda interesting speculation about gold going to $1,520,000. And not just people saying, oh, I think it's gonna happen, but here here's a post from, Josh Phillip Fair, who who owns a a pretty significant mint.
• 42:53
  Right? Scottsdale mint. Yep. And he's saying that, you know, there's major bets on $15,000 gold. I'm seeing this.
• 42:58
  They're saying open interest in December, 15 to $20,000 COMEX call spreads hold near 11,000 contracts even after gold's pullback. He says, meanwhile, some investors are being shaken out of their physical gold and silver. So you've got that happening with these these these call spreads that are, placing calls on, you know, $1,520,000 dollar gold in the COMEX. But then simultaneously, this is also strange that this is gonna come out. So the US Mint, I'm not sure if you've seen this.
• 43:26
  So this is, you know, the US US Mint as they're coming soon. So these are obviously, these are commemorative, so there's gonna be a premium for that. But we're looking at for a freedom ringing, these Liberty one Liberty Bell one ounce gold coin as they're calling them, it's $19,000. Right? The one ounce silver is $750.
• 43:47
  These are on the this is from the US Mint. These are coming soon. So here's a post kinda talking about this. It's from, it says the signs are everywhere. The US Mint is selling one ounce gold at 19,600, half ounce at 10,050, and one, half ounce silver metal at $7.50.
• 44:04
  He says it's not because the metal's worth that much by weight alone. They're limited edition collectible products with premiums, but there's one thing that's hard Governments are still minting gold and silver while the world port piles on more debt. When confidence in fiat starts to crack, people have historically turned back to tangible assets. Right? So as we talk about, when confidence in fiat starts to crack, people have historically turned back to tangible assets.
• 44:28
  Exactly what we're talking about. Right? When the fake, right, confidence in fake disappears, people want real. Right? So he says, if you've been paying attention to central banks buying record amounts of gold, you already know why.
• 44:41
  Know what you hold. So, anyway, so what what are your thoughts on this when you see this information?
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. For sure. And I would say, obviously, those two dots, and there was, like, speculation about the the US Mint maybe front running the administration's announcement that they're repricing gold proactively. And of course, I don't believe that that'll happen. I'll get into why.
• 45:01
  But when you have the US Mint declaring one ounce gold, even though they're commemorative coins, of course, they're more expensive, like proofs and stuff like that. You do you do
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: But not $20,000 expensive.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: Not five times the current price. It's really hard to justify. And at $1,500 ounce silver, you know, we're talking 30 times the price. And so it's very difficult to justify how that's possible. I would say that on top of the calls that are being made for futures contracts for that 15,000 to $20,000 silver price into sorry, gold price into December.
• 45:36
  And I've seen those similar calls being made or bets being made in silver for silver at around $900 And there's been a lot of speculation and talk about this on X and other platforms over the last few months. Someone is betting tens of millions of dollars on a gold price that's five times higher the current value in the next six months. And so maybe it's a billionaire with a gambling problem, they don't really care because they've got money to burn. But I have feeling that not even a billionaire would actually waste tens of millions of dollars on such an extraordinarily high call for gold in such a short period of time. It wouldn't shock me if someone from within the administration was in the know and had the inside scoop about some plan to introduce a gold backed bond or to revalue gold and silver.
• 46:28
  And they're actually kind of, again, insider trading or playing on that inside information. And maybe they are placing these huge multimillion dollar bets on much higher gold and silver. So I think when you take the US Mint price and then this insider stuff and these bets that are being made, it definitely adds fuel to the conspiracy fire or the theory that maybe something will happen. Everyone's been saying for the July 4, so just this Saturday, that there will be a proactive revaluation of gold and silver. Now, obviously, the reason for that is we own the most on paper of any country, although I don't think that's actually true.
• 47:01
  We've got 8,100 tons. China's in number two at 2,500 tons. At 8,100 tons, if we revalue gold just to the current market price of 4,000, we generate $1,000,000,000,000 of net new cash in the gold revaluation account. And there's actually an account at the Treasury, I think we've talked about this before, that exists and has since the '30s when they reprice gold after the confiscation. When you do that, creates because you're not selling it, it just creates new money in this gold revaluation account.
• 47:30
  So we're $39,000,000,000,000 in debt. If we reprice gold or marked it to market at 4,000 an ounce, we create 1,000,000,000,000 in net new cash. That hardly makes a dent. But let's say Trump wanted to, you know, throw 5,000,000,000,000 at the national debt or some kind of anniversary dividend to citizens, or maybe he wants to who knows? They could do whatever they want.
• 47:51
  But if they reprice gold at $20,000 an ounce, that's five times higher. That's $5,000,000,000,000 into the gold revaluation at, which is a significant sum of money to come up with without having to raise taxes or cut spending. And he's obviously talked about going into a new golden era of America, a lot of thematic stuff with his gold tie and lighting up the White House in gold on the outside. And so the speculation is that he's going to do this. My opinion is that there's almost no chance that it happens.
• 48:17
  And the reasons are when the bubble pops in AI and in housing and in everything else. The government needs to be unshackled from any kind of gold standard so that they can freely print money in order to bail the system out. And I will bet everything I have that that is exactly how they'll respond. That's the only way that they can. It's the only two tools that they have are to lower rates and to print money in any kind of financial or economic crisis.
• 48:44
  And knowing, like if we know that AI has got a solid chance of correcting and that we could end up with some kind of recession or global recession depression, smarter people in the White House on the economic side of his advisory team, they know that too. They will not return to some kind of gold standard prior to the biggest crash or biggest recession in degeneration. They need the tools of money printing and lowering rates to be able to bail that boat out, Otherwise, they'll probably have the biggest depression of all time on their hands. And maybe that would be good because it would reset the system. I'm obviously a sound money advocate, Seth.
• 49:20
  I just don't see not just this government, but any government hamstringing themselves or handcuffing themselves to a gold standard prior to a big economic crisis. So this July 4, I hope I'm I'd love to be wrong on this, and that's because you and I own enough gold and silver if they reprice it anywhere near those, price levels suggested. We're we're, you know, happy campers, and all of our clients will be very happy campers. Now my saying on this is all roads lead to gold eventually getting to those types of prices, But organically, I still think we need two, three, four, five years. We need the crisis to happen.
• 49:56
  We need the big print to happen. And on the other side of that is where we'll see those types of prices and maybe even higher. But in the short term, I don't think it's that realistic. But it's certainly interesting to see that someone's betting that kind of money on these higher prices in the short short term and this, thing from the Mint for sure. So I'd give it maybe a 5% or 10% chance overall.
• 50:17
  I hate to kind of throw cold water on it. Again, I'd be happy it to happen, happy to be wrong, but we'll see.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the as we talked about, the key is that the fundamentals are still there. Right? When my when my wife asked me, she said, oh, Seth, you know, Silver's at 60. We should we should sell.
• 50:31
  Right? It's it's gonna keep going down. It's like, the the fundamentals are still there. They're still they're still printing paper. They're they're playing the market, and this is this is a long term, you know, strategy.
• 50:41
  That's just how we look at it. And and there's a lot of, there's a lot of peace in that. It's like you kinda look at It's like, okay. Here's where it is. Okay.
• 50:47
  Here's it's it's it's okay. But I I mean, I think that right now is right now is a huge buying opportunity. Right? Look at JPMorgan. You're getting you're getting 21,000,000 ounces.
• 50:56
  Right? So, yeah, if you can if you can get 21 ounces, go for it. Right? That that's the time. Right?
• 51:01
  Is right now.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It's just it's hard to fight, like, emotions are the death of wealth. Right? It's like when you get too excited, it's probably a bad sign. When you get really depressed, it's probably a good sign.
• 51:11
  And so it's really hard to kind of override your natural wiring and psychology of investing. And if you can try to look at it from a Warren Buffett perspective of buying when there's blood in the street and buying when everyone's in the dumps, I think that that's the way to look at it. It's just very hard to do. It's very counterintuitive. But like I said, our clients are well informed.
• 51:30
  They know what to expect. We're looking at the long term. It's not a trade. They have been buying en masse over the last few months. And of course, it's again been grinding in that kind of big band of 60 to 90.
• 51:42
  I'm encouraged that we're starting Q2. Silver's slightly in the back in the sixties. Silver's still holding on to 4,000. These are key levels that I don't think will fail in the coming months. I think the lows are probably close to getting in.
• 51:54
  But let's say I'm wrong on that. The worst case for silver, in my opinion, is it has to go and retest that fifty, ten dollars of downside for what I think is eventually hundreds of dollars of upside. I'm looking for, and I've shared these targets like again, thousand and 30 being in and around my my end of cycle target, 3 to 500 in silver and $10,000 in gold. Those are my expectations. It's obviously lower than what these people are suggesting at the Mint or these contracts that are being bought on the futures market.
• 52:20
  But a $10,000 gold price, I think, is fairly conservative. It doubled really from end of twenty twenty four to beginning of twenty twenty six. It was like thirteen months it went from $2,600 to $5,600 think it can double and a little bit over the next three, four, five years, and I think that's super conservative. I'd be looking for a twenty:one or a thirty:one on the gold to silver ratio, something in there. And if you get to $10,000 gold, a thirty:one is $333 and a twenty:one is $500 And of course, there are analysts out there like Michael Oliver, who I really respect.
• 52:58
  He was calling for 300 to $500 this year, and I think that's obviously a very low probability call at this point. But I do think he's right about having another huge rally through the fall. That's why this big pullback and the dip in the seasonal lows and stuff like that should be bought right now. And then other analysts like David Hunter are calling for over $1,000 silver in the early 2030s kind of coming out of this bust and the big print like I'm suggesting could happen as well. Not to be sensationalistic about where the price could go.
• 53:28
  Again, this is number one, safety number two, a way of holding your wealth in an asset class or in a format that's outside of all the biggest risks right now, which are certainly markets, the banks, the dollar. And yeah, I think that's obviously the goal here is to just educate people, walk them through our process and what we do. We deliver the metal obviously straight to you at home for cash purchases. We do physical metals IRAs where it's stored and vaulted and you can pull it out and we'll audit them and photograph them for you. You're well familiar with that, but I don't think all your audience members are.
• 54:03
  So, look, people should give us a call. You can ask for me personally. You can email me too. I feel like this is helpful. If you don't mind, Seth, I just want to throw
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: an email at
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, please
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: do. Yeah, it's good. I want people to be able to contact you. Even my mom, right? So she watched our interview and she's like, Hey, Seth, I can I work with Micah directly?
• 54:21
  Because she was moving into And an
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I'll say a few things. She was so sweet and so good to work with, but she was one of the cases that we had where her custodian, they'll remain unnamed, but her custodian just made it so challenging. Normally rollovers happen within two to three weeks, and I think we were almost at two months by the time it got done because they told her one thing and then another, and they changed their story about the process and made her do this account. Anyway, she had a very difficult time with her custodian. We were there to help her through that.
• 54:52
  But I'm sorry that that happened. We eventually got her in actually pretty close to the Lowe's as well, and it was a pleasure working with her. But the reason I want to get my email is because I feel a lot of people are a bit gun shy about making that first call, and they don't want to have to have that conversation. So Micah, MICAH,@knowableira.com is where you can send me questions. You can write to me whatever you want, if that's kind of an easier way of taking that first step to get in touch for no pressure sales, super consultative, education and service based, of course.
• 55:24
  So I just think it's helpful to throw it out there for people who might be a little bit shy about giving us a call.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Great. And I'll put that in the descriptions. Micahnobleira.com. Also, have the website, easy to remember, goldwithseth.com. Goldwithseth.com takes you here.
• 55:41
  You have a phone number. There's also a form you can fill out as well to get a wealth kit and go from there. And it's pretty easy. It's straightforward. So Micah, it's been good talking to you, I always enjoy these discussions.
• 55:51
  And, you know, we'll see. I think we'll be coming back on again in a month or so, we'll see what's happening. But I'm still I feel very secure, optimistic, and, I know you do too. And, it's yeah, it's you kind of just hold it, stay steady, keep your emotions steady, and just look to the future.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, exactly. View on the long term. Don't worry about the short term. Directionally, things are unchanged.
• 56:18
  Fundamentally, things are unchanged. These are all super bullish times. Try to be doing the opposite of what people are saying. I know that's hard to do in investing and in life, but taking advantage of these opportunities. And then the last thing I'd say is just being proactive.
• 56:32
  Most people won't come to us until the AI bubble has popped in their 401s, take a big bath, or their IRAs, take a big bath. If you can be a day early or sorry, six months early rather than a day late, I think that's a big benefit. The amount of capital I expect that will flow out of tech and all that stuff and into precious metals is going to be huge, like something we've never seen, especially because all the reasons we mentioned. The writings on the wall, like you said, institutions are buying like crazy banks, governments, billionaires. It's just not retail investors.
• 57:02
  Usually they're the bag holders. They're the last to get the news. They're the last to be told about what's going to happen. And if we can just be a little bit more proactive in all areas of life, but especially financial preparation, is a key time to start doing that. So I welcome any calls, welcome any emails.
• 57:17
  Thanks for having me on. And we might have some news to discuss earlier than a month from now if we end up having some major gold revaluation announcement this weekend. Again, very unlikely, but if that happens, maybe we'll do an impromptu review of what's going on, so let's just see how that plays out.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: Sounds good, man. Micah, thank you again. I love talking to you. Take care, man.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Thanks, you too. See you soon.