Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / AFC 1-Seed Options, Theft & a Parlay| NFL Week 16
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The Crown
- 0:13Speaker 1: is yours. Happy Thursday. NFL Week sixteen has arrived. I'm
- 0:17Speaker 1: Brandon Kravitz, joined by an insightful and delightful duo, the
- 0:22Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky is back on the podcast,
- 0:26Speaker 1: and the Queen herself, Miss Kendrim Middleton. On today's episode,
- 0:30Speaker 1: we will submit our official plays of the week. We've
- 0:32Speaker 1: got our stat of the day courtesy of Evan Abrams.
- 0:36Speaker 2: We'll kick that to you in just a moment.
- 0:38Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings,
- 0:42Speaker 1: and we have planted our flags already the Browns plus ten,
- 0:47Speaker 1: the Seahawks tonight, and Matt Moore, who slid in for
- 0:51Speaker 1: Stucky on Tuesday's episode, was on the Broncos minus three,
- 0:56Speaker 1: went apo on our Jacksonville Jaguars. But before we to
- 1:00Speaker 1: anything of football substance, Stucky, how is the little burrito
- 1:05Speaker 1: doing at home?
- 1:07Speaker 3: He's doing well, He's cute. Uh, it's hanging in there.
- 1:11Speaker 3: They I they said to like, I don't do much.
- 1:15Speaker 3: It's like, I mean, he sleeps in the needs and
- 1:16Speaker 3: my wife has to do all the work, right, now,
- 1:19Speaker 3: and I don't really sleep during football season, so that's
- 1:21Speaker 3: not a big adjustment. So yeah, they say that this morning.
- 1:27Speaker 3: He watched some bowl games with me last night, had
- 1:30Speaker 3: him on the couch locked up. They say to read
- 1:34Speaker 3: to them just like they're not going to register anything,
- 1:37Speaker 3: but like for your voice. And so I was reading
- 1:42Speaker 3: the book. I a recent book I got on the
- 1:44Speaker 3: history of the Venezuela. So he was learning about the
- 1:49Speaker 3: history of Venezuela this morning. So, uh, yeah, he was.
- 1:55Speaker 3: I was reading to him about Boulevar and uh, you.
- 1:58Speaker 1: Didn't want to roll with it's a good spider all
- 2:01Speaker 1: of the classics.
- 2:03Speaker 3: No, I mean we have we have all those, but
- 2:05Speaker 3: I'll read them to him when like he can actually, ah,
- 2:10Speaker 3: like registering, it's more about like your voice, and so
- 2:14Speaker 3: I might as well read something that I want to read.
- 2:17Speaker 3: So maybe he'll end up getting into history. But yeah,
- 2:22Speaker 3: it's it's uh, it's not much different for me right now,
- 2:25Speaker 3: but it will be right now. They're they're pretty easy.
- 2:30Speaker 4: Was it like a holy ship moment when you held them?
- 2:35Speaker 3: Yeah, it was funny. He was born at one one
- 2:39Speaker 3: oh one Eastern on Sunday, And I guess you wanted
- 2:44Speaker 3: to catch the NFL slate and then they brought me
- 2:46Speaker 3: up to the.
- 2:47Speaker 1: Nurse right when the octobox gets shown on Red Zone too.
- 2:53Speaker 3: Yeah, it was an emergency c section, so they brought
- 2:55Speaker 3: me up to the nursery after and then they had
- 2:57Speaker 3: to like still operate on my wife for a while. Well,
- 3:00Speaker 3: but they because it was a C section, they have
- 3:02Speaker 3: to like help them to breathe and clean them off.
- 3:05Speaker 3: So like I was just standing there while a bunch
- 3:08Speaker 3: of uh nurses and doctors were tending to them for
- 3:12Speaker 3: like an hour. So I was just sitting in the
- 3:14Speaker 3: nursery just but I wore like a winter I had
- 3:20Speaker 3: to scrolls. It had a winter hat on and and
- 3:23Speaker 3: then I had like headphones underneath and I just had
- 3:30Speaker 3: Red Zone playing in my pocket. So while I was
- 3:34Speaker 3: in the so yeah, I and then I was able
- 3:40Speaker 3: to go back. We went back to recovery room, and
- 3:45Speaker 3: then I was able to watch the Bills make a
- 3:48Speaker 3: crazy comeback, which was nice. So yeah, it was it
- 3:54Speaker 3: was a pretty crazy when we were in the hospital yesterday,
- 3:56Speaker 3: so that was kind of So that was from we
- 4:00Speaker 3: got went there at Saturday night and then he wasn't
- 4:03Speaker 3: born until Sunday at one, and then we got home
- 4:06Speaker 3: Wednesday afternoon, so we were there for it kind of
- 4:08Speaker 3: felt like a camp, like we were at camp. But
- 4:12Speaker 3: I was sleeping on like a cot whenever I did sleep.
- 4:14Speaker 3: That wasn't great. But yeah, it's big lu change, but
- 4:20Speaker 3: I'm excited. It'll get harder once he's able to move
- 4:24Speaker 3: around and stuff.
- 4:25Speaker 4: But around and recavoc.
- 4:27Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's gonna be the where everything changes. But
- 4:32Speaker 3: for now, status quo. We're on to week sixteen. A
- 4:37Speaker 3: lot of this this week. I'm actually really excited for
- 4:39Speaker 3: this week because you look at this week's hard, it's
- 4:44Speaker 3: you know, you have a lot of bad there's a
- 4:45Speaker 3: lot of bad quarterbacks the NFL regardless. But there's like
- 4:48Speaker 3: I think seven or eight rookies starting, like you have
- 4:51Speaker 3: Quinn yours now Brady Cook, So there's there's some I
- 5:00Speaker 3: think there's like seven ary rookies that are siding to do.
- 5:02Speaker 3: But this is like when the games matter for playoffs,
- 5:05Speaker 3: and we have ram Seahawks tonight, Packers, Bears Saturday Night,
- 5:10Speaker 3: Ravens Pats Monday Night. We get forty four year old
- 5:14Speaker 3: Philip Rivers on Monday Night against the forty nine ers.
- 5:17Speaker 3: But yeah, there's a lot of good games. Jags, Broncos
- 5:20Speaker 3: are Jags. There's some good games on the slate that
- 5:26Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to, but there's also some just like, Wow,
- 5:29Speaker 3: this is the state of our quarterback play right now. But
- 5:32Speaker 3: I'm excited for it, and I'm excited for the playoffs.
- 5:35Speaker 1: Either a great thing or a scary thing. There are
- 5:37Speaker 1: a lot of games I like, and from a betting
- 5:40Speaker 1: perspective on this week's card, let's talk about one of
- 5:43Speaker 1: the ones you just mentioned. The Jags and the Broncos,
- 5:46Speaker 1: a matchup of ten and a twelve win team that
- 5:49Speaker 1: will not be seen by anybody but local markets. By
- 5:52Speaker 1: the way, no national broadcast keep doubting our Jaguars. Bnick's
- 5:57Speaker 1: coming off the best performance of the season him four touchdowns,
- 6:01Speaker 1: no interceptions, through for three to Zho two, took zero sacks.
- 6:05Speaker 1: The Jags, meanwhile, twenty five plus and seven straight games.
- 6:09Speaker 1: They're the only team in the NFL to be able
- 6:10Speaker 1: to be able to say that, and this trend screams Jacksonville.
- 6:14Speaker 1: This is our Evan Abrams stat of the day. Since
- 6:17Speaker 1: nineteen ninety, teams on an eleven plus game win streak
- 6:21Speaker 1: have been inflated and have struggled to cover fourteen and
- 6:25Speaker 1: thirty six and two against the spread. That's twenty eight percent.
- 6:30Speaker 1: To me, it's Jags or pass. I have not bet
- 6:32Speaker 1: the game yet. Broncos favored by three. I have Jacksonville
- 6:36Speaker 1: rated slightly higher, and I think part of that is
- 6:39Speaker 1: their strength of schedule denverse twenty eighth.
- 6:41Speaker 2: The Jags are twelfth.
- 6:42Speaker 1: And on top of that, Nick Giffin has the Broncos
- 6:46Speaker 1: number one in the luck rankings, Jags top ten. They're
- 6:49Speaker 1: number nine, but a percentage diff of nineteen percent. To me,
- 6:53Speaker 1: it's Jacksonville or nothing stuck yet? Do you read this one?
- 6:56Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be on the Jags. Wait and see if
- 6:58Speaker 3: I can get a three and a half, even if
- 7:01Speaker 3: I have to play like one, fifteen, one twenty for it.
- 7:05Speaker 3: I don't think that I have this under a field goal.
- 7:08Speaker 3: And you might say Nicks played his best game of
- 7:10Speaker 3: the season last week. I mean it was another lucky
- 7:12Speaker 3: Broncos when he had four turnover worthy plays. The Packers
- 7:15Speaker 3: dropped hens Uh dropped like three picks in that game. Additionally,
- 7:20Speaker 3: they lost Evan Williams, Michael Parsons, Christian Watson their right tack.
- 7:25Speaker 3: I mean they lost six starters during the game to injury.
- 7:28Speaker 3: So yeah, this Broncos team is just keeps getting away
- 7:34Speaker 3: with it every week. Not a believer. I think their
- 7:37Speaker 3: defense is good, but it's not like the Texans. I
- 7:40Speaker 3: think their defense is even a bit overrated. So yeah,
- 7:43Speaker 3: I'll be on the Jags. I mean the Jags defense
- 7:44Speaker 3: since Week eight, fourth and EPA per play, they've been
- 7:47Speaker 3: a top five run defense all season. That's important against Denver.
- 7:50Speaker 3: They're gonna play a lot of zone. Nicks is gonna
- 7:52Speaker 3: put the ball in Harm's way. Jags have been very
- 7:54Speaker 3: opportunistic on defense. And then I think the story of
- 7:58Speaker 3: the Jags this season, and one of the reasons why
- 8:01Speaker 3: I was in buying into them before the season was
- 8:05Speaker 3: Liam Cohen. Wherever he goes, the offense improves. Was expecting
- 8:09Speaker 3: the offense to improve as the season went on. It's
- 8:11Speaker 3: been even better than I thought. I mean since they
- 8:13Speaker 3: acquired Jacoby Myers, third in dropback success rate, sixth in
- 8:18Speaker 3: dropback EPA. Jacoby Myers has been amazing for them. They've
- 8:23Speaker 3: also gotten Brenton Strange back. The run game's been cooking
- 8:27Speaker 3: all season. So yeah, I uh, I'll be on. It'll
- 8:31Speaker 3: probably be another close Broncos game. I would love to
- 8:34Speaker 3: get a three and a half with the Jags.
- 8:36Speaker 1: Josh Heinz Allen popped up on the injury report. He's
- 8:38Speaker 1: dealing with an illness. He didn't practice on Wednesday. Wednesday's
- 8:42Speaker 1: a pretty standard day for stars not to practice. Old
- 8:44Speaker 1: and freak out about that. We'll just keep an eye
- 8:46Speaker 1: on that. Kendra, you are a resident Jags fan. We
- 8:50Speaker 1: have just simply hopped on the bandwagon. Do you have
- 8:53Speaker 1: confidence in your team going up against a Broncos team
- 8:56Speaker 1: that is undefeated at home this year?
- 8:59Speaker 4: I'm on the Jags. We are a Jags podcast. I've
- 9:03Speaker 4: already put it in the app. I'm a little concerned
- 9:05Speaker 4: that Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are both on the
- 9:08Speaker 4: injury report on that left side. That doesn't make me
- 9:10Speaker 4: feel great against a Broncos defense this. I would like
- 9:14Speaker 4: to add that I think the Jags are averageating in
- 9:16Speaker 4: the last six games like thirty three or thirty four
- 9:18Speaker 4: points a game, which is also just insane of as
- 9:21Speaker 4: a Jags fan who grew up hating this team but
- 9:23Speaker 4: also loving this team. That's an insane stat to say
- 9:26Speaker 4: out loud. The thing for me here isn't so much
- 9:28Speaker 4: that I'm super high on this Jags team, which you
- 9:31Speaker 4: guys know, I've had my ups and downs. I've been
- 9:33Speaker 4: in and out. Basil Tuton being on the injury report
- 9:35Speaker 4: as doubtful also doesn't really scare me that much, just because,
- 9:38Speaker 4: like wwent, Allen has been incredible on special teams and
- 9:40Speaker 4: I think that he can make up for the position
- 9:42Speaker 4: on that in the run game that Basil Tuton has
- 9:45Speaker 4: for the Jags, it's more so a fad of the
- 9:48Speaker 4: Broncos here for me, it is impossible to go on
- 9:52Speaker 4: such a wind streak like they have and not stumble
- 9:55Speaker 4: at some point, especially because like Stucky said, they will
- 9:58Speaker 4: absolutely Bonick will put the ball in Harm's way and
- 10:01Speaker 4: this Jags team will will, will will take advantage of
- 10:05Speaker 4: those opportunities. MAYA Spider Lloyd named after Devin Lloyd just
- 10:08Speaker 4: decided to molt on Sunday. So I'm thinking even Devin
- 10:12Speaker 4: Lloyd pick in this game. I think that that's what
- 10:14Speaker 4: that means.
- 10:15Speaker 1: The Jags catching fifty eight percent of the bets right
- 10:18Speaker 1: now and.
- 10:19Speaker 3: Dag one seed. Still they win this game.
- 10:22Speaker 2: Still alive, that's true.
- 10:24Speaker 3: Still very much alive. That have the time breaker.
- 10:26Speaker 2: Do you have the odds.
- 10:28Speaker 1: Are there odds on that that are available, I would
- 10:32Speaker 1: think they're pretty good.
- 10:35Speaker 3: They have to win this week. I mean, if they
- 10:37Speaker 3: lose this week, it's done. But if they have to
- 10:39Speaker 3: win this week and then they have what the the
- 10:41Speaker 3: Colts and the Titans.
- 10:44Speaker 4: Left, Broncos are a game and a half up, and then.
- 10:48Speaker 3: They need the the Broncos to lose two the Chargers,
- 10:55Speaker 3: Pats to lose this week to the.
- 10:57Speaker 4: Ravens and have Chiefs on Christmas.
- 11:04Speaker 3: Yeah, but I mean, what is the Chiefs. The most
- 11:08Speaker 3: likely loss for the Broncos is going to be the
- 11:13Speaker 3: Chargers at home in the finale.
- 11:15Speaker 4: I don't know. I kind of I get that the
- 11:17Speaker 4: Chiefs suck. They have nothing to play for and we're
- 11:19Speaker 4: getting Gardner Minshew, but still divisional something to get up
- 11:22Speaker 4: for for some of those guys.
- 11:24Speaker 3: I don't know it is, but I don't even know
- 11:25Speaker 3: who's gonna play Like the Chiefs are they just gonna
- 11:27Speaker 3: sit guys because there's nothing to play. They have so
- 11:32Speaker 3: many injuries that that's that's my main concern. Then obviously
- 11:35Speaker 3: the drop off from Mahomes to Minshew. But yeah, if
- 11:39Speaker 3: the Jags win, So if the Jags win this week
- 11:44Speaker 3: against Denver. We'll say the Ravens beat the Pats, and
- 11:50Speaker 3: then next week the Pats are probably gonna win out.
- 11:57Speaker 3: After that they play the Jets and the Dolphins. But
- 12:02Speaker 3: if the Broncos, let's see, the Jags have the tiebreaker,
- 12:10Speaker 3: So if the Jags went out, this would be one
- 12:14Speaker 3: more second. This is riveting, riveting podcasting.
- 12:18Speaker 1: We did get a number I'll buy I'll buy you
- 12:21Speaker 1: some time here stock the Jags seven to one to
- 12:24Speaker 1: be the number one seed in the AFC. I don't
- 12:28Speaker 1: know how that math's out with all of these different
- 12:31Speaker 1: machinations that we need, but I don't like that.
- 12:35Speaker 3: Yeah, that's all that would have to happen. So that's
- 12:37Speaker 3: what would have to happen. Jags, we get the one seed,
- 12:39Speaker 3: be a three way tie for at thirteen and four
- 12:42Speaker 3: with the Jags, Broncos, and Pats all at thirteen and four,
- 12:47Speaker 3: and if that were to happen, so what we needs
- 12:52Speaker 3: to happen. They got to win out, including win over Denver.
- 12:55Speaker 3: Denver loses to the Chargers in the finale, Pats lose
- 12:59Speaker 3: to the Ravens, and even if the Pats went out
- 13:03Speaker 3: after that, the Jags would have the tiebreaker all at
- 13:09Speaker 3: thirteen and four and get the number one overall seed.
- 13:17Speaker 3: The Bills could also finish thirteen and four, so there
- 13:21Speaker 3: could be a a four way tie at the top,
- 13:28Speaker 3: but the Pats would win the division and the Jags
- 13:31Speaker 3: would get the one seed.
- 13:33Speaker 4: Anything to avoid going to Houston for the playoffs. In on,
- 13:37Speaker 4: I will chase it. I want the Chargers at home.
- 13:40Speaker 2: Every wants those Texans. Nobody wants them.
- 13:42Speaker 1: By the way, if you want to a much more
- 13:43Speaker 1: simple version where you don't have to wait until things
- 13:46Speaker 1: play out in week seventeen and beyond. Jags money line
- 13:51Speaker 1: Ravens money line for week sixteen is plus two eighty one,
- 13:55Speaker 1: so not exactly the seven to one, but if you
- 13:57Speaker 1: just thought that maybe things were going to tilt in
- 13:59Speaker 1: that direction, that could be a way to look.
- 14:02Speaker 3: Now another could we could also have five teams that
- 14:05Speaker 3: finish thirteen and four in the AFC. So if the
- 14:08Speaker 3: Chargers went out and in that case and then said
- 14:12Speaker 3: Denver loses to the Jags and they lose to the Chargers,
- 14:18Speaker 3: the Chargers would have the two seed and win the division.
- 14:21Speaker 3: The Pats would have the three seed and win the division.
- 14:23Speaker 3: The thirteen or four Broncos would have the six seed,
- 14:26Speaker 3: the thirteen and four Bills would have the five seed,
- 14:28Speaker 3: and the thirteen or four Jags would have the one seed.
- 14:30Speaker 3: Pretty wild.
- 14:32Speaker 1: Do you have any You just had a child, so
- 14:35Speaker 1: perhaps you know you're not ready for this, But do
- 14:39Speaker 1: you have anything random, weird, bizarre for us this week?
- 14:42Speaker 2: Hey, this is a dumb question.
- 14:45Speaker 3: Let me ask you a personal question kind.
- 14:47Speaker 2: Of question is that is questions.
- 14:50Speaker 3: What if anything, is the weirdest thing that you have
- 14:58Speaker 3: stolen in your life that you regret? So I think
- 15:01Speaker 3: I can't remember the only thing I can remember that
- 15:03Speaker 3: I've ever stolen. I mean, I'm sure I stole something
- 15:06Speaker 3: when I was like a kid, right like you grabbed
- 15:11Speaker 3: like a candy bar. I don't know, But like, the
- 15:13Speaker 3: only thing I remember stealing is and I actually still
- 15:19Speaker 3: I actually felt bad about it. The next day was
- 15:23Speaker 3: I was It was I was in Hoboken, New Jersey,
- 15:26Speaker 3: visiting a friend and we were out all night and
- 15:29Speaker 3: it was like three in the morning and we were
- 15:31Speaker 3: walking back to his place after the bars, and then
- 15:35Speaker 3: there was this huge bread It was like four in
- 15:38Speaker 3: the morning. There was this huge bread truck that was
- 15:40Speaker 3: delivering bread to like a store and I hopped in
- 15:48Speaker 3: and I just grabbed this big crate of rolls. Why
- 15:54Speaker 3: would I steal roll So my friend had like rolls
- 15:57Speaker 3: for like a year frozen in his freezer. But I
- 16:01Speaker 3: felt bad for the bread guy the next day because
- 16:03Speaker 3: I don't know who would have to to cover that,
- 16:05Speaker 3: But I did. I have stolen rolls in my life
- 16:08Speaker 3: and then didn't use any of them. I left the
- 16:11Speaker 3: next day. So that's the only thing I think of it.
- 16:14Speaker 3: And it's a poot two part question. When you were
- 16:16Speaker 3: a kid, what was your if there was like an
- 16:21Speaker 3: ice cream truck or if you didn't have an ice
- 16:23Speaker 3: cream truck. Did you guys have an ice cream truck
- 16:24Speaker 3: that will come around?
- 16:25Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah?
- 16:27Speaker 3: What was your order? Mine for mine for that was
- 16:32Speaker 3: I saw an ice cream truck other day and for
- 16:35Speaker 3: some reason, I didn't seen one in forever. I would
- 16:37Speaker 3: always you. I would always get the uh that Mickey
- 16:42Speaker 3: Mouse bar, that's so hot. I love that, And then
- 16:48Speaker 3: I'd always get candy cigs and try to act cool
- 16:50Speaker 3: like with the fake cigarettes.
- 16:52Speaker 2: I can that.
- 16:54Speaker 3: So no ice cream trucks, I don't know. Maybe some
- 16:58Speaker 3: people didn't didn't have an ice cream truck that comes around.
- 17:00Speaker 3: We don't have an ice creamruf that comes in my
- 17:01Speaker 3: neighbor so uh yeah. So Kendra, have you ever stolen anything?
- 17:09Speaker 4: And one of them I can't talk about on the air,
- 17:11Speaker 4: but I will tell you guys off the air because
- 17:14Speaker 4: it is so illegal. It's actually an issue, and I
- 17:17Speaker 4: was so young and I did not realize anything at
- 17:19Speaker 4: the time. The only other thing that I've stolen is
- 17:22Speaker 4: I accidentally walked out of the grocery store with a
- 17:24Speaker 4: thing at toilet paper under my cart once and that
- 17:27Speaker 4: still haunts me to this day that I feel bad about.
- 17:30Speaker 4: My ice cream truck order was I think it's called
- 17:32Speaker 4: a screwball. It's like the like slush and then it
- 17:35Speaker 4: had the gumball at the bottom. Oh yeah, yeah, I
- 17:39Speaker 4: like that one.
- 17:41Speaker 1: My ice cream order was always the WWF ice cream bar,
- 17:45Speaker 1: so you know, and then you would open it and
- 17:48Speaker 1: he could have like the hul Cogan or the Big
- 17:50Speaker 1: boss Man. You know, you never knew who his image
- 17:53Speaker 1: was going to be drawn on the ice cream bar.
- 17:56Speaker 1: But the ice cream itself was really good too. It
- 17:58Speaker 1: was like a gram cracker crust with vanilla on the inside.
- 18:01Speaker 1: And then the second you said the thing that you stole.
- 18:05Speaker 1: I had this instant memory. Thirteen years old, I'm at
- 18:10Speaker 1: Dillard's with my friend Steven. I'm at yeah and uh,
- 18:15Speaker 1: and for some reason, he wanted to start stealing Tommy
- 18:19Speaker 1: Hill figure tags off of the Tommy Hill And they're
- 18:22Speaker 1: just like little cardboard.
- 18:25Speaker 2: Things that hang on the shirts.
- 18:27Speaker 1: And so we took a bunch of those, and then
- 18:29Speaker 1: we decided that we were doing so well with this,
- 18:31Speaker 1: we're gonna up our game.
- 18:32Speaker 2: Do you remember those flotation devices.
- 18:34Speaker 1: On the Nautica jackets back in the day, So these
- 18:38Speaker 1: I'm putting this picture up, these little things.
- 18:41Speaker 2: Yeah, so we started taking those.
- 18:43Speaker 1: At that point, Dillard's had enough and we got sent
- 18:48Speaker 1: to the security office at Dillard's and they told me
- 18:52Speaker 1: that they had my parents come and pick me up.
- 18:54Speaker 1: And I wasn't allowed back at Dillard's until I was
- 18:57Speaker 1: sixteen years old and so and I don't there's no
- 19:01Speaker 1: way they still I was thirteen, fourteen, fifteen years old
- 19:05Speaker 1: that my picture was hanging up at Dillard's in South Florida,
- 19:10Speaker 1: and I will do with them. I just just kept
- 19:14Speaker 1: them just it just became like a game, like we
- 19:18Speaker 1: could get more of them.
- 19:19Speaker 2: I don't know, it was really stupid. I was thirteen
- 19:21Speaker 2: years old, but.
- 19:23Speaker 3: Yeah, actually, like a Dillard's, I actually got arrested for
- 19:27Speaker 3: stealing something.
- 19:30Speaker 4: It was arrested.
- 19:31Speaker 3: Yeah. So I was sixteen and I was down at
- 19:35Speaker 3: my friend's senior week house.
- 19:36Speaker 2: And he's smoking candy cigarettes.
- 19:39Speaker 3: And they were at their senior week house. They were
- 19:44Speaker 3: out of toilet paper, and I went to the to
- 19:52Speaker 3: the boardwalk that this is down to the Jersey Shore.
- 19:57Speaker 3: I went to the boardwalk with my friend and we
- 20:02Speaker 3: took toilet paper out of a bathroom. One of the workers,
- 20:09Speaker 3: I guess, saw us walking out with it and they
- 20:13Speaker 3: waved down a cop, and a cop chased this down
- 20:19Speaker 3: and I got arrested for underage drinking because I was
- 20:22Speaker 3: drunk when he stopped me. And I was sixteen, so
- 20:24Speaker 3: technically that's taking toilet paper. I was just trying to
- 20:27Speaker 3: be nice because they were out of toilet paper at
- 20:29Speaker 3: their house. I was there for a night. I was
- 20:31Speaker 3: like a freshman. They were at their senior week house.
- 20:34Speaker 3: My dad had to come get drive at three in
- 20:37Speaker 3: the morning and come get me two hours away and
- 20:43Speaker 3: drive me back. He was not happy. So, yeah, you.
- 20:47Speaker 4: Were You were the leader of degenerate nation from a
- 20:50Speaker 4: young age my friend.
- 20:52Speaker 3: So, yeah, that's a toilet paper rolls. I guess I
- 20:55Speaker 3: have a thing for stealing rolls. I guess that's the
- 20:58Speaker 3: common theme, and I did use any of them.
- 21:01Speaker 2: These are everyday household items.
- 21:02Speaker 1: You know, at least you were stealing things of value
- 21:05Speaker 1: and not flotation devices.
- 21:07Speaker 2: Uh, let's get to action or distraction.
- 21:09Speaker 3: This is a distracted stactic. I'm not stacky.
- 21:12Speaker 4: I want it on. The action.
- 21:17Speaker 1: Too was benched by Mike McDaniel insides Quinn yours, and
- 21:21Speaker 1: we saw the line shift a few points in the process.
- 21:24Speaker 1: I'll give my take on this later because it is
- 21:26Speaker 1: one of my nominations. But Kendra, action or distraction on
- 21:31Speaker 1: the line movement, given how bad Tua has.
- 21:34Speaker 4: Been, I want nothing to do with the Dolphins right
- 21:38Speaker 4: now at all.
- 21:40Speaker 2: Nothing.
- 21:41Speaker 4: Don't even know. I don't Here's the thing. If Quinn
- 21:45Speaker 4: you weres is starting before Zach Wilson and Tua is
- 21:49Speaker 4: now behind those two, that points to no go nothing.
- 21:53Speaker 2: I know.
- 21:54Speaker 4: I will say, I do think that this is gonna
- 21:56Speaker 4: weirdly teach us a lot about the Tua scenario, just
- 22:00Speaker 4: because I don't think we've seen with the Dolphins. Mike
- 22:03Speaker 4: McDaniel run an offense that's not based around to his ability,
- 22:07Speaker 4: and I think that that's going to be like a
- 22:08Speaker 4: huge thing of whether we might see I don't think
- 22:11Speaker 4: that the Dolphins are going to be able to get
- 22:12Speaker 4: rid of his contract at all, just because of how
- 22:15Speaker 4: much money they owe him, his injury history and his capabilities.
- 22:18Speaker 4: I think they're going to be stuck, you know, with
- 22:20Speaker 4: the Kirk Cousins situation. But we're going to learn a
- 22:22Speaker 4: lot about how tailored this offense was to him, and
- 22:25Speaker 4: I think that that's probably going to affect the to
- 22:28Speaker 4: a market in a way.
- 22:30Speaker 1: If you are a quarterback needy team, would you take
- 22:33Speaker 1: a shot on Tua.
- 22:36Speaker 4: No, absolutely not, because his injury history is enough for
- 22:40Speaker 4: me to stay away at that price. Absolutely not.
- 22:45Speaker 3: I would. I mean it depends on yeah, I mean
- 22:50Speaker 3: his price in the market. But I think the two
- 22:52Speaker 3: it can be like a really solid Mariota, like just
- 22:59Speaker 3: the the best backup.
- 23:00Speaker 4: In the league right for that price.
- 23:04Speaker 1: Well, obviously that's when you wouldn't pay The Dolphins have
- 23:07Speaker 1: to eat that price.
- 23:07Speaker 4: The Dolphins have to eat that So whn't at that
- 23:09Speaker 4: point they just cut him because then they can spread
- 23:11Speaker 4: that money out over two seasons. If that's how it's
- 23:13Speaker 4: gonna go.
- 23:14Speaker 3: Yeah, but I'm saying for a new team, like it's
- 23:17Speaker 3: gonna be like Russell Wilson.
- 23:19Speaker 1: Like Wilson was let go by Denver. Denver had to
- 23:21Speaker 1: eat the money and then everyone signed a million dollar
- 23:23Speaker 1: contract with Pittsburgh.
- 23:26Speaker 3: Yeah, if they caught him before June first, it's gonna
- 23:27Speaker 3: cost them ninety nine million in dead money, which is insane.
- 23:33Speaker 3: The record is that the Broncos with eighty five million
- 23:35Speaker 3: for Russell Wilson, which is pretty amazing what the Broncos
- 23:37Speaker 3: are doing right now considering how far back that would
- 23:41Speaker 3: have set a lot of teams. I mean, look at
- 23:42Speaker 3: the Browns with Watson. But yeah, I mean I think
- 23:45Speaker 3: too it is probably and that with his injury history,
- 23:49Speaker 3: that's gonna work best for him, would probably work best.
- 23:52Speaker 3: Is just like a backup to a good team.
- 23:55Speaker 2: That so.
- 23:58Speaker 3: But as far as the blind movement, yeah, I mean
- 24:00Speaker 3: I agree with that. It it was two, it was
- 24:02Speaker 3: one and a half two two and a half. I
- 24:04Speaker 3: think it was one and a half. It leaked out
- 24:05Speaker 3: to two and a half when there was when when
- 24:08Speaker 3: McDaniel said all options are on the table, and then
- 24:11Speaker 3: it jumped out to four and a half after the announcement,
- 24:14Speaker 3: I think it's settled. He's that up four now or
- 24:16Speaker 3: last I saw. I think that makes sense. You gotta
- 24:20Speaker 3: remember that also, not all line moves are created equal.
- 24:23Speaker 3: This is going through three, so you know, something going
- 24:25Speaker 3: from like a pick to minus two is not as
- 24:27Speaker 3: impactful as something going from you know, one and a
- 24:29Speaker 3: half two out to four through the through three, which
- 24:32Speaker 3: is the biggest key number in football. So yeah, I
- 24:35Speaker 3: think that it's it's warranted. You just don't know, Like
- 24:40Speaker 3: two hasn't been great. The Dolphins have been relying on
- 24:42Speaker 3: their run game. They just haven't been asking to it
- 24:45Speaker 3: to do much, and their run defense has been incredible.
- 24:48Speaker 3: Uh and but their their secondary is still vulnerable, which
- 24:52Speaker 3: is what I would worry about against Burrow. And but
- 24:55Speaker 3: as far as the drop off, you just don't know
- 24:57Speaker 3: what yours is going to look like. This isn't a
- 24:58Speaker 3: high draft pick. He's a rookie, it's his first start,
- 25:00Speaker 3: and I know the Bengals aren't a great defense, but
- 25:04Speaker 3: you have to expect that it's going to be a
- 25:07Speaker 3: couple of points worse than two, even though he hasn't
- 25:09Speaker 3: been great. So yeah, I agree, with the move at
- 25:14Speaker 3: this price, Like Kendra, I have no interest in betting
- 25:17Speaker 3: this game. We think after the Bengals were eliminated, like
- 25:22Speaker 3: where are they at? Mentally, Dolphins were eliminated like just
- 25:27Speaker 3: a game that's I don't want to see any fun.
- 25:31Speaker 2: We have a squad ride tonight.
- 25:33Speaker 1: If you look on the Action Network app, I'm on
- 25:35Speaker 1: the Seahawks, Kendra's on the Seahawks. Stuck, He's on the Seahawks.
- 25:39Speaker 1: And we didn't even discuss it as a unit. We'd
- 25:42Speaker 1: all just sort of wound up there. Action or distraction
- 25:45Speaker 1: for this is a great or bed sign for us
- 25:50Speaker 1: and the Birds.
- 25:51Speaker 3: Stucky a great son. We've been good this year, so
- 25:55Speaker 3: we're about to hit our two kings and Queen parlay later.
- 25:58Speaker 3: But yeah, the energy I played. The Seahawks are early
- 26:03Speaker 3: cheap money line, like, I think that they've taken some
- 26:05Speaker 3: money since and I think the line is getting close
- 26:09Speaker 3: to right. But the biggest thing for me is the
- 26:11Speaker 3: loss of Devanta Adams makes the Rams so much easier
- 26:15Speaker 3: to defend. They've been relying on a lot of heavy personnel,
- 26:19Speaker 3: and no team in the NFL is better equipped to
- 26:21Speaker 3: defend heavy personnel than the Seahawks. So what a lot
- 26:25Speaker 3: of teams do by mistake is they match heavy personnel,
- 26:29Speaker 3: so multiple tight ends with either their base defense or
- 26:33Speaker 3: heavy defense, which means a lot more linebackers on the field.
- 26:37Speaker 3: That's a mistake because what do the Rams do out
- 26:39Speaker 3: of that? They throw out of heavy personnel and they
- 26:41Speaker 3: do it extremely well and if you have more linebackers
- 26:44Speaker 3: on the field. The Lions did this last week. They
- 26:47Speaker 3: matched the Rams heavy personnel with base and heavy. Every
- 26:52Speaker 3: single snap they got destroyed, absolutely destroyed the Seahawks they met.
- 26:59Speaker 3: They match heavy personnel with you know, they're with not
- 27:05Speaker 3: not based, not heavy, They're gonna you know, nickel dime you.
- 27:09Speaker 3: They match based on the down and distance, which is
- 27:11Speaker 3: what you should do. And part of that is they
- 27:13Speaker 3: have Nick emn Warre who can play you know, linebacker
- 27:16Speaker 3: if you run, or defensive back, and they have a
- 27:17Speaker 3: lot of versatile guys and McDonald's a very smart defensive coordinator.
- 27:23Speaker 3: They match you know, heavy personnel with bass or heavy
- 27:27Speaker 3: at the lowest rate in elitue. They are tail They
- 27:30Speaker 3: have a tailor made defense to defend the Rams, especially
- 27:33Speaker 3: without DeVonta Adams. And it's one of the reasons in
- 27:35Speaker 3: the first meeting, Stafford had his worst game of the
- 27:37Speaker 3: season by far. Think about this. Donald threw four picks
- 27:42Speaker 3: on the road. The Seahawks had a field goal attempt
- 27:45Speaker 3: to win the game, and I mean at Stafford, I
- 27:48Speaker 3: think at twenty eight pass attempt for one hundred and
- 27:49Speaker 3: thirty yards if I recall correctly, he was not good.
- 27:52Speaker 3: And now there's no Adams Seahawks at home. And I
- 27:57Speaker 3: know that Donald has struggled against this defense in the past,
- 27:59Speaker 3: but I feel like they figured some things down in
- 28:01Speaker 3: the second half against Atlanta similarly structured defense scheme, and
- 28:06Speaker 3: he's at home this time around. So yeah, and the
- 28:09Speaker 3: loss of Adams is big in the red zone, just
- 28:12Speaker 3: as that man beater so too.
- 28:18Speaker 2: He's essentially their goal line back.
- 28:19Speaker 1: If you look at how often they've thrown him the
- 28:21Speaker 1: ball in the one yard line, it's it's beyond him.
- 28:24Speaker 3: I mean, they go, they'll go. They're thirteen personnel inside
- 28:27Speaker 3: the ten is like a cheat code, and they'll they
- 28:30Speaker 3: have Stafford will just look at what the linebacker safety
- 28:35Speaker 3: is doing over the tight end, and they'll have Adams
- 28:37Speaker 3: split out and if based on what he does, he's
- 28:42Speaker 3: throwing it. If there's a one on one if this
- 28:44Speaker 3: safety or linebacker comes up, or files a tight ender
- 28:46Speaker 3: comes up to play the run. I mean it's just
- 28:47Speaker 3: one on one to Adams. No one's covering him, So
- 28:51Speaker 3: without that you can focus more attention on Nicoole. But
- 28:54Speaker 3: I just like this matchup for the Seattle defense. So yeah,
- 28:56Speaker 3: I think the Seahawks get it done.
- 28:57Speaker 5: To home.
- 28:58Speaker 3: Should be a good game, should be ugly, and there's
- 28:59Speaker 3: gonna be wins, rain totals come down. But I think
- 29:05Speaker 3: the Seahawks get it done. But these are these are
- 29:07Speaker 3: the two best teams against the spread in the NFL.
- 29:08Speaker 3: I think it'll be a good one looking.
- 29:09Speaker 1: Forward to Should we be concerned that we have a
- 29:12Speaker 1: turnover prone Sam Darnold in the rain.
- 29:14Speaker 2: That's that's my only real ye here with this game.
- 29:17Speaker 4: I was going to say, three fields a little bit
- 29:19Speaker 4: like a crowd in this instance for me personally, I
- 29:22Speaker 4: got in on this game on Sunday for the same
- 29:24Speaker 4: reason that's Dock you mentioned. I was trying to get
- 29:26Speaker 4: ahead of the number before Adams and potentially Nakua, who
- 29:29Speaker 4: was having a bad week in the press. I might
- 29:34Speaker 4: add additionally, it's for like what I think when I
- 29:38Speaker 4: think about this game. I sit here and I think, one,
- 29:41Speaker 4: it's hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in one season.
- 29:44Speaker 4: I like the idea that that's probably leaning towards the split.
- 29:47Speaker 4: I liked it they're at home. And what really pushed
- 29:50Speaker 4: me to get to the window on this is that
- 29:52Speaker 4: they look. Yes, they won, and it's hard to sit
- 29:55Speaker 4: here and say it's a bounce back game after a win,
- 29:57Speaker 4: but they looked like shit against a Philip Rivers led
- 30:00Speaker 4: Colts team. They almost lost to a forty four year
- 30:02Speaker 4: old grandfather. If they don't come out guns of blazon
- 30:06Speaker 4: in this game, I'm going to fade the Seahawks for
- 30:08Speaker 4: the rest of the season. If they don't come out
- 30:11Speaker 4: genuinely looking like a Super Bowl contender against a Super
- 30:14Speaker 4: Bowl contender, it's done. They're dead. To me. I'm fading
- 30:17Speaker 4: Sam Darnold the rest of the freaking season.
- 30:20Speaker 1: It was almost like a college look ahead spot with
- 30:22Speaker 1: the way that they played so sleepy against the Indianapolis Colts.
- 30:26Speaker 2: Still to come.
- 30:27Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly Parlay.
- 30:30Speaker 1: But first, a word about DraftKings from the First Lady.
- 30:34Speaker 4: The Favorites podcast has teamed up a Draft Kings sportsbook
- 30:37Speaker 4: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
- 30:40Speaker 4: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
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- 31:01Speaker 4: the crown is yours.
- 31:03Speaker 1: Alrighty time to talk Monday Night Football and our friends
- 31:06Speaker 1: over at Sling TV. With Sling TV, you can take control.
- 31:10Speaker 1: With the Flexible Package. You got options of one, three,
- 31:14Speaker 1: and seven day passes to access thirty plus live channels
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- 31:21Speaker 1: plus huge games coming up in the NFL regular season
- 31:24Speaker 1: and playoff games all for as low as four ninety nine.
- 31:28Speaker 1: You just simply can't beat that time for a Monday
- 31:31Speaker 1: night football preview.
- 31:32Speaker 2: Let's look at forty nine Ers Colts.
- 31:33Speaker 1: The Colts catching six and a half at home San
- 31:37Speaker 1: Francisco ten and four record might be a little bit overblown.
- 31:40Speaker 1: I think the team is good, but their strength of
- 31:43Speaker 1: victory thirty six percent. Among the good teams in the NFC,
- 31:47Speaker 1: only the Bears have a lower strength of victory than
- 31:51Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine ers.
- 31:53Speaker 2: But here's the thing.
- 31:55Speaker 1: Their opponent this coming Monday night, I think gets filed
- 32:00Speaker 1: under easy competition when you're taking on in a mobile
- 32:04Speaker 1: old quarterback in Philip Rivers, who just in some aspects,
- 32:09Speaker 1: had the game of his life that he was able
- 32:11Speaker 1: to get off the couch or get off of the
- 32:13Speaker 1: high school coaching ring and play at least some level
- 32:19Speaker 1: of respectable football.
- 32:20Speaker 2: So I can only look at the forty nine ers.
- 32:23Speaker 1: But more than anything else, I'm just gonna go back
- 32:26Speaker 1: to the well with what I bet last week in
- 32:28Speaker 1: the return of Philip Rivers. I'm gonna go with Rivers
- 32:31Speaker 1: under half a rushing yard minus one eighty five. The
- 32:36Speaker 1: guy can't move. This is It's like a free bet.
- 32:40Speaker 1: So I'm gonna I'm gonna look in that direction. Kendro,
- 32:42Speaker 1: what about you?
- 32:44Speaker 4: I feel like I have to ask Stucky the Philip
- 32:46Speaker 4: Rivers or Featherweight question from Tuesday show. I'm all over
- 32:51Speaker 4: the forty nine ers here. I think it's time to
- 32:53Speaker 4: absolutely fade the Colts and anything up to a touchdown
- 32:56Speaker 4: works for me.
- 32:58Speaker 3: We had a lot of agreement on this. I actually
- 33:00Speaker 3: disagree with Kendra on that, but I played, I played
- 33:05Speaker 3: the Colts. I think the line's too high. I mean,
- 33:07Speaker 3: the forty nine ers were the LAS three weeks. Wh
- 33:08Speaker 3: would they beat like the Browns in the dead even game?
- 33:11Speaker 3: Statistically the Titans. Both teams were able to run on
- 33:14Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, but the fort Niners defense is
- 33:16Speaker 3: so bad like they Jonathan Taylor, I think he's gonna
- 33:19Speaker 3: run wild here, and I mean I think since week seven,
- 33:23Speaker 3: the forty Niners are thirty first in rushed success rate allowed.
- 33:27Speaker 3: And I think, look, Rivers, I think you can expect
- 33:29Speaker 3: better from him this week. You're playing a defense that
- 33:32Speaker 3: is poverty levels when it comes to getting pressure. They
- 33:36Speaker 3: can't defend the run. Last week, he's on the road.
- 33:38Speaker 3: His first game in five he was playing the Seattle defense,
- 33:40Speaker 3: which is one of the three best in the NFL
- 33:43Speaker 3: that can get pressure without blitzing. Now he's playing defense.
- 33:45Speaker 3: I can't get any pressure whatsoever. Me Dnk he can
- 33:47Speaker 3: dink and dunk, feed Taylor and I think the fort
- 33:51Speaker 3: nineers at the peak of the market value. They're playing
- 33:53Speaker 3: a bunch of bad teams in a row with a
- 33:55Speaker 3: ton of injuries as well. But I'm gonna go with
- 33:57Speaker 3: I think Taylor gets gets fed and he has a
- 33:59Speaker 3: big so I'm gonna go tailor longest rush over seventeen
- 34:05Speaker 3: and a half yards. I think he breaks a couple here.
- 34:08Speaker 1: Did you get your wife pregnant nine months before bowl
- 34:10Speaker 1: season and the end of the regular season and you
- 34:13Speaker 1: need some instant access to live TV, perhaps from the
- 34:16Speaker 1: hospital room.
- 34:17Speaker 2: Sling TV is your solution.
- 34:19Speaker 1: To that instant access for live TV, starting at four
- 34:23Speaker 1: ninety nine, and this works for Monday night football. This
- 34:26Speaker 1: also works great for the upcoming college football playoff. There
- 34:29Speaker 1: is not a better time to acquaint yourself with the one, three,
- 34:32Speaker 1: and seven day passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to
- 34:36Speaker 1: Orange one day pass restrictions apply. It's time for the
- 34:40Speaker 1: reason you all came here today, the two Kings and
- 34:42Speaker 1: a Queen parlay nominations. We each nominate two and then
- 34:47Speaker 1: we will see what we land on.
- 34:58Speaker 4: Kendra Us started well since stuck. He hates my forty
- 35:04Speaker 4: nine ers pick. I have a feeling that We're gonna
- 35:06Speaker 4: go with my Baltimore option, because those are the two
- 35:09Speaker 4: that I laid out. I just don't know if the
- 35:14Speaker 4: Patriots defense, with all of their injuries, especially because I
- 35:17Speaker 4: don't know if Spallaine is now going to play on Sunday,
- 35:19Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to stop the run. I know
- 35:21Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson's out with an illness. He has the immune
- 35:23Speaker 4: system of a Victorian child. It feels like every December
- 35:27Speaker 4: he has some sort of illness or the poop game,
- 35:30Speaker 4: or you know, the wheelchair game, whatever we want to
- 35:33Speaker 4: call it from him. He has Paul Pierce moment against
- 35:35Speaker 4: the Packers a couple of seasons ago. I don't really
- 35:37Speaker 4: care that Lamar Jackson's sick, especially since he missed Wednesday practice.
- 35:41Speaker 4: He's been missing Wednesday practices pretty much the entirety of
- 35:43Speaker 4: the year. Baltimore is just a step up in class
- 35:47Speaker 4: for the Patriots, like Buffalo was last weekend. I get
- 35:50Speaker 4: that the Patriots were leading Buffalo at the half, Buffalo
- 35:54Speaker 4: came back. It's just the ability that the Ravens have
- 35:59Speaker 4: to run the ball, and I don't think the Patriots
- 36:01Speaker 4: are going to have an answer for it, especially with
- 36:03Speaker 4: all the linebacker. You know, injuries that popped up for
- 36:05Speaker 4: them this week. Robert Spoltan was in a boot yesterday.
- 36:08Speaker 4: It just feels like the Patriots kind of are facing
- 36:12Speaker 4: that bit of a reality check that we all knew
- 36:14Speaker 4: what was coming because of the strength of their schedule.
- 36:16Speaker 4: So I'm going to fade them again this week.
- 36:20Speaker 3: I love this. I played the Ravens two Lamar by
- 36:22Speaker 3: the Way eighteen and eight against the spread of December
- 36:24Speaker 3: has never lost the game weeks fifteen through eighteen per
- 36:28Speaker 3: Evan Abrams is primer, and since we ate after the bye,
- 36:33Speaker 3: Ravens second in rush EPA. Charlie Kohler has been amazing
- 36:37Speaker 3: run blocking. They were twenty second over the first seven weeks.
- 36:41Speaker 3: Patriots defense since week eight thirtieth in rushed success rate allowed,
- 36:44Speaker 3: thirtieth in RUSHYPA. Milton Williams is hurt. Robert Splane, whos
- 36:48Speaker 3: their leading tackler, calls the defense is hurt. They got
- 36:51Speaker 3: banged up in the secondary last week. This team which
- 36:54Speaker 3: played nobody and was getting lucky. I mean on the
- 36:57Speaker 3: year there they played the luckiest. They played the easiest
- 36:59Speaker 3: schedule in the league. They've gone fourteen of nineteen on
- 37:02Speaker 3: fourth downs. Their opponents have gone eight of twenty three,
- 37:04Speaker 3: They've had seventeen fumbles, only lost seven, recovered sixty seven
- 37:07Speaker 3: percent of their opponent fumbles, have had games against teams
- 37:09Speaker 3: that just completely imploded on special teams, and they've played
- 37:13Speaker 3: some of the worst quarterbacks that are no longer starters
- 37:16Speaker 3: in the league. I think this line should be over
- 37:21Speaker 3: a field goal. Now you have injuries, I mean Will
- 37:23Speaker 3: Campbell being out of left tackle, Verderon Lowe is unplayable
- 37:25Speaker 3: there and this is just a classic hardball Jackson primetime
- 37:31Speaker 3: spot against an eleven win team. I like the Ravens
- 37:34Speaker 3: get it done, and I think they'll be able to
- 37:38Speaker 3: abuse the Patriots linebackers and safeties with their tight ends
- 37:41Speaker 3: and throwing over the middle of the field. And Lamar
- 37:43Speaker 3: started to look better progressively each and every week. And
- 37:46Speaker 3: the Ravens defense is playing really well. I mean since
- 37:49Speaker 3: we week six fifth and EPA play fifth and success
- 37:51Speaker 3: rate first against the run. The one thing that Ravens
- 37:54Speaker 3: still are struggling with is their red zone offense. Their
- 37:57Speaker 3: second to worst in the red zone forty four percent
- 38:01Speaker 3: red zone touchdown percentage, way down from last year. Well,
- 38:03Speaker 3: guess whos the worst red zone defense in the NFL.
- 38:05Speaker 3: It's the Patriots, so they might actually see some positive
- 38:09Speaker 3: results inside the twenty. I like the Ravens. I'm sorry, Kenrim,
- 38:11Speaker 3: what we're going to say?
- 38:12Speaker 4: No, no, You're fine. I was going to see Two more
- 38:13Speaker 4: points that I forgot to add here before we get
- 38:15Speaker 4: to Kravitz is one, Drake May does not have the
- 38:17Speaker 4: fourth quarter game winning drive of any sort in his career,
- 38:21Speaker 4: and that's kind of the situation I expect them to
- 38:23Speaker 4: be in this week. And the other thing is I
- 38:26Speaker 4: am going to get these numbers backwards, but I think
- 38:28Speaker 4: eighty one percent of the bets are on at the
- 38:31Speaker 4: Patriots with eighty nine percent of the money, I might
- 38:34Speaker 4: have gotten that back We thought if.
- 38:35Speaker 1: I was staring at that, that was going to be
- 38:37Speaker 1: my follow up. If you are OK, I fade the
- 38:39Speaker 1: public camp, and Evan has been detailing how decimated the
- 38:44Speaker 1: public betters have been getting this year. If you're if
- 38:49Speaker 1: you see a team catching over sixty percent of the tickets, Evan,
- 38:54Speaker 1: before I continue babbling about this, I don't have the
- 38:57Speaker 1: number right in front of me. How bad has it
- 38:59Speaker 1: been for the those the teams that are catching sixty
- 39:01Speaker 1: percent or more of the bets.
- 39:03Speaker 5: Yeah, to be clear, this is sixty percent on close,
- 39:06Speaker 5: so you know have probably tune in like close to
- 39:08Speaker 5: kickoff to kind of look at some of those numbers.
- 39:10Speaker 5: But sixty percent or more fifty four and ninety thirty
- 39:13Speaker 5: eight percent through fifteen weeks pretty ridiculous minus twenty eight
- 39:17Speaker 5: percent return on investment. And maybe the crazier part is
- 39:20Speaker 5: the consistency fourteen of fifteen weeks below five hundred against
- 39:25Speaker 5: the spread in that spot.
- 39:26Speaker 2: So pretty crazy. And there is that a look.
- 39:29Speaker 1: At US consensus this week, this is crazy and I'm
- 39:32Speaker 1: with you one hundred percent. I have no issue whatsoever
- 39:35Speaker 1: with the Ravens this week. The Patriots are the most
- 39:40Speaker 1: heavily bet side in terms of ticket percentage, So not
- 39:44Speaker 1: only eighty one percent, but there's no team in the
- 39:47Speaker 1: NFL this week that's catching a higher percentage than the
- 39:49Speaker 1: Patriots are right now. So even though, like Evan said,
- 39:53Speaker 1: these numbers really only hold any sort of trend value
- 39:57Speaker 1: right before kickoff, I doubt you're gonna go from eighty.
- 40:00Speaker 2: One percent to south of sixty percent. So the Patriots will.
- 40:03Speaker 1: Qualify if you like to fade that public trend. So Ravens, Yes,
- 40:09Speaker 1: they're in there at minus three. I'm going to nominate
- 40:12Speaker 1: the Dolphins at plus four or the Cowboys money line.
- 40:17Speaker 2: These are both kind of gross.
- 40:19Speaker 4: You guys are both on some gross ash shit this week.
- 40:22Speaker 1: I kind of like Dolphins, so this line springs. It
- 40:28Speaker 1: was the injury overreaction and the way the market has
- 40:30Speaker 1: settled down after the fact. The line was Bengals minus
- 40:34Speaker 1: two right when you started getting whispers that there might
- 40:37Speaker 1: be a change. Then the line springs to Bengals minus
- 40:41Speaker 1: four and a half. Across every book that I looked at,
- 40:44Speaker 1: it's your typical overreaction to a benching or injury news.
- 40:48Speaker 1: I just disagree with the movement. Tua hasn't been able
- 40:50Speaker 1: to complete throws ten yards down the field. He hasn't
- 40:53Speaker 1: been on time, he hasn't been on schedule with this offense.
- 40:56Speaker 1: He had trouble managing the two minute drill on Monday
- 40:59Speaker 1: Night football. And as much as quin Ewers might be bad,
- 41:03Speaker 1: I think anything fresh for Miami right now is a positive,
- 41:06Speaker 1: especially when you consider how bad the defense is they're
- 41:09Speaker 1: going up against. We're not asking quin Yours to be
- 41:12Speaker 1: e lite here, and it's not like he's going up
- 41:14Speaker 1: against the LA Rams. I rarely rarely suggest betting the
- 41:18Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, but I do feel like this is the
- 41:20Speaker 1: right read in the right side to be on. And
- 41:23Speaker 1: the Chargers are just this is let down city for them.
- 41:26Speaker 1: They just beat the Chiefs on the road, and you've
- 41:29Speaker 1: got Dak on a home stand. Evan points this out
- 41:32Speaker 1: in the Primer second home game in a row for
- 41:35Speaker 1: the Cowboys with Dak Prescott as the quarterback last fifteen,
- 41:39Speaker 1: He's thirteen and two.
- 41:40Speaker 2: Straight up.
- 41:41Speaker 1: You have the Chargers off of an overtime Monday night
- 41:44Speaker 1: football game and then go on the road to Kansas City,
- 41:46Speaker 1: and now they're on the road in Dallas, and Dallas
- 41:48Speaker 1: always plays better at home, So tough schedule spot for
- 41:52Speaker 1: the Chargers. Those are my two nominations. Kendra vote, Can
- 41:58Speaker 1: you just not piss me.
- 42:00Speaker 4: Off for one week and give me something that I
- 42:02Speaker 4: don't have to rip my hair out over.
- 42:04Speaker 2: It's become my mission, really.
- 42:06Speaker 4: I'm kind of just I get the talking point of
- 42:10Speaker 4: something fresh for Miami, but getting behind a rookie quarterback
- 42:13Speaker 4: at this point in the season feels disgusting.
- 42:15Speaker 3: But I can't seventh round draft pick too like it
- 42:18Speaker 3: could go like Brasma, you just don't know. It could
- 42:21Speaker 3: be like just a complete It's not like this guy
- 42:23Speaker 3: is the first or second. He's a seventh round draft pick.
- 42:26Speaker 2: He was a seventh round draft pick.
- 42:28Speaker 1: He is also somebody that, prior to last season starting
- 42:31Speaker 1: at Texas, was projected to be a first round pick.
- 42:34Speaker 1: I mean he had a bad season that it was his.
- 42:36Speaker 4: Draft stock season, double ass booty cheeks season.
- 42:40Speaker 1: I don't think he's your typical seventh round pick. I
- 42:42Speaker 1: think he has first round ability, it just didn't have
- 42:46Speaker 1: He just had a he had a rough season. He's
- 42:48Speaker 1: not a great processor. I've talked to some people down
- 42:51Speaker 1: in the Miami area. It's not like there's buzz around him.
- 42:54Speaker 1: I'm not trying to overhype when you weres here. I
- 42:57Speaker 1: just I think it's an overreaction. I think two has
- 42:59Speaker 1: been so bad that any adjustment to Mike McDaniel just
- 43:04Speaker 1: being able to mold his own version of what he
- 43:07Speaker 1: wants a quarterback to be in his offense is going
- 43:09Speaker 1: to be so valuable, even if it's just for a
- 43:12Speaker 1: one week blip and the fact that they get to
- 43:14Speaker 1: do it against a bad defense at home.
- 43:17Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, Dolphins want to lose I
- 43:20Speaker 3: mean the Dolphins are, yeah, kind of indirectly tanking.
- 43:25Speaker 2: They can lose, just lose by less than four.
- 43:28Speaker 3: We gotta get that. I'm not betting the Dolphins. We said,
- 43:32Speaker 3: we said, we didn't know part of that. I would
- 43:33Speaker 3: I so it has to be Dallas.
- 43:37Speaker 4: I disagree. I was gonna say the Dolphins just because
- 43:40Speaker 4: of the thing that I mentioned earlier, with us not
- 43:43Speaker 4: really knowing what type of McDaniels wants to run when
- 43:45Speaker 4: it's not designed around to I give it. I think
- 43:48Speaker 4: that that gives him a little bit more creative freedom here.
- 43:51Speaker 3: I mean, he's just gonna run. They're just gonna run
- 43:52Speaker 3: it like that's all they've been doing. So like I did,
- 43:57Speaker 3: they're just pa give your hand to the eight chene
- 43:58Speaker 3: fifty thirty times again, which might work against the Bengals.
- 44:02Speaker 4: But no Ollie Gordon rushing prop on DK right now.
- 44:06Speaker 3: I'll say Cowboys and make evan But the only thing
- 44:08Speaker 3: is with the Cowboys. The Cowboys might be eliminated from
- 44:11Speaker 3: the playoffs on Saturday night officially, and while I don't
- 44:16Speaker 3: think that impacts them playing at home against the Chargers,
- 44:18Speaker 3: I think they're gonna show up. The market might back
- 44:23Speaker 3: you might get buy back on that. You might get
- 44:25Speaker 3: some money coming in on the Chargers. But I've seen
- 44:28Speaker 3: this before late in the season team gets eliminated. There
- 44:31Speaker 3: was like a Green Bayal Detroit game in the final
- 44:34Speaker 3: week of the season the Lions got bet against because
- 44:36Speaker 3: they got eliminated earlier in the day. They ended up
- 44:38Speaker 3: beating the Packers. I think it was a Sunday night game,
- 44:42Speaker 3: so you might get a better price there. But I'll
- 44:43Speaker 3: go Dallas. Money line is going to Miami, so Ivan,
- 44:48Speaker 3: you gotta I mean, I just hate both these games.
- 44:52Speaker 5: This is ridiculous if you're gonna make me go ahead
- 44:56Speaker 5: and pick though, Like, I just don't understand why Cincinnati
- 45:00Speaker 5: and Miami would be like a consideration because I the
- 45:04Speaker 5: question marks on both sides. You have no idea what
- 45:07Speaker 5: you're gonna get from Burrow, from viewers. There's just so
- 45:10Speaker 5: many question marks.
- 45:10Speaker 3: So that goes off lost to historically.
- 45:14Speaker 2: Yeah, but okay, can I pause you right there?
- 45:17Speaker 1: Evan, Yes, there's a lot of question marks, But isn't
- 45:19Speaker 1: that sort of.
- 45:22Speaker 3: Well, then you should go money line. You should just
- 45:23Speaker 3: play the variants.
- 45:24Speaker 1: I mean that there's so much known in the NFL.
- 45:27Speaker 1: This is the most known widely known when.
- 45:33Speaker 3: But you should then you should take the money line,
- 45:35Speaker 3: like if the viewers is disaster, they're gonna get bown out.
- 45:37Speaker 3: Like they're not gonna lose by I mean watching that now,
- 45:38Speaker 3: they said to lose by three.
- 45:39Speaker 1: But I need I need some insurance here, stucky, So
- 45:43Speaker 1: I will take the I will take the four.
- 45:45Speaker 2: But let's just go.
- 45:46Speaker 3: You should go.
- 45:47Speaker 5: You should go Raven's money line, Cowboys money line, and
- 45:50Speaker 5: move on to our next pick. In my opinion, let's
- 45:52Speaker 5: just take the money lines, go to win, and move
- 45:55Speaker 5: on to what we're doing.
- 45:55Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm so excited for the Dolphins to
- 45:58Speaker 1: cover and watch all they might make.
- 46:01Speaker 3: I'm not saying they couldn't. I just don't want to
- 46:03Speaker 3: have any money on that game.
- 46:04Speaker 5: But Burrow could throw for five hundred yards as well.
- 46:06Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 46:06Speaker 1: My point is is that in an information game, no
- 46:09Speaker 1: sport is known better by any of us that bet
- 46:13Speaker 1: recreationally or beyond than the NFL. Sometimes the only leg
- 46:18Speaker 1: up we have is betting into the unknown, and that
- 46:22Speaker 1: is what we're doing here.
- 46:24Speaker 5: A seventh round pick from Texas. Let's roll sure, all right,
- 46:28Speaker 5: so we got.
- 46:31Speaker 3: We have a Cowboys moneyline. If you didn't. If you
- 46:37Speaker 3: didn't like Brent, you're not gonna like mine. My first
- 46:39Speaker 3: nomination Titans money line. Did the Chiefs show up? They
- 46:45Speaker 3: have offensive line injuries, they have injuries, a wide receiver,
- 46:48Speaker 3: it's Gardner Minshew. This team has never they haven't played
- 46:52Speaker 3: being eliminated from the playoffs in like eight years. How
- 46:56Speaker 3: do they talk about an emotional letdown? Also, Andy Reid
- 46:59Speaker 3: like wide waist any of your primo playbook here. The
- 47:06Speaker 3: Chiefs can finally get a decent draft pick. I don't
- 47:09Speaker 3: even know if they show up.
- 47:10Speaker 2: Titans.
- 47:10Speaker 3: Also they have safety injuries, offensive line injuries, but they'll
- 47:13Speaker 3: be excited for this game with cam Ward. I think
- 47:15Speaker 3: there's a lot of aarants and the Chiefs could just
- 47:16Speaker 3: lay down, like they could just be completely flat. And
- 47:19Speaker 3: they can't even run the ball. Their offense has been
- 47:21Speaker 3: struggling anyway, and then after more offensive line injuries to
- 47:24Speaker 3: start that game last week, they couldn't do a thing
- 47:26Speaker 3: with homes So and the Titans have been running the
- 47:30Speaker 3: ball better late. So the high variance game where the
- 47:33Speaker 3: Chiefs might just know show so Titan's money line or
- 47:37Speaker 3: if that didn't let your appetite raiders plus fourteen and
- 47:42Speaker 3: a half. It's my favorite out of the weekend. Sadly
- 47:47Speaker 3: so Texans injuries have They have some injuries and secondary
- 47:50Speaker 3: marks and running back. They've lost some guys in the Interier.
- 47:53Speaker 3: Their defensive line, raiders, they're horrendous. They're bad. But they
- 47:59Speaker 3: might get Holton Miller back at left tackle. That would
- 48:02Speaker 3: be massive. He's like an Andrew Thomas one of the Giants.
- 48:06Speaker 3: Whenever they didn't have Andrew Thomas, their offensive line and
- 48:08Speaker 3: completely crumbled. So'll not gonna be a good offensive line.
- 48:10Speaker 3: But if you have a top five left tackle, you
- 48:13Speaker 3: can actually like function a little bit more. So he's practicing,
- 48:17Speaker 3: came off. I think he's gonna play, but we'll see.
- 48:20Speaker 3: But this is mainly just bilow cell high spot. I
- 48:22Speaker 3: think we're at the peak of the market on the Texans.
- 48:24Speaker 3: Everyone is like, you don't want to play the Texans.
- 48:25Speaker 3: The Texans are going to win the AFC. That's your
- 48:27Speaker 3: number one signal that we're at the top of the market.
- 48:29Speaker 3: They've won six straight.
- 48:31Speaker 1: I did just bet them to win the Super Bowl,
- 48:32Speaker 1: so stuck. He's probably right about that.
- 48:34Speaker 3: Yeah, then they've benefited from a bunch of like a
- 48:37Speaker 3: lot of the teams they've played over the past their
- 48:39Speaker 3: six game winning you've been all been hurt. The Bills
- 48:41Speaker 3: didn't have an offensive line. Daniel Jones got hurt with
- 48:44Speaker 3: the Colts. The Chiefs had no offensive line. The Cardinals
- 48:47Speaker 3: whole team was hurt. So and four of their six
- 48:49Speaker 3: wins have come by one possession. Only one of the
- 48:51Speaker 3: six has been a playoff team. They still can't finish drives,
- 48:55Speaker 3: which is not ideal for a team you want to
- 48:57Speaker 3: win by three possessions. In the NFL, thirtieth in red
- 49:00Speaker 3: zone touchdown percentage. And this is also a bottom on
- 49:05Speaker 3: the Raiders. They were shut out with eighty yards last week.
- 49:09Speaker 3: The Eagles went on a seventeen play, ninety yards scoreless
- 49:13Speaker 3: drive to finish the game that took eleven minutes. That
- 49:15Speaker 3: was more yards than the Raiders had in the entire game.
- 49:18Speaker 3: Teams off a shutout seventy four to fifty five and
- 49:21Speaker 3: five against the spread, fifty seven and a half percent
- 49:24Speaker 3: on the road, sixty five percent, covering by over a
- 49:27Speaker 3: field goal per game. Road dogs off a shutout loss
- 49:30Speaker 3: sixty five percent historically. But this is one of my
- 49:33Speaker 3: and look, the Raiders are so bad, like it's it's bad,
- 49:37Speaker 3: but they've been blown out a bunch this year. Here's
- 49:41Speaker 3: what they've done after seventeen plus point losses. They lost
- 49:43Speaker 3: by one to the Bears, they should have won. They
- 49:45Speaker 3: beat the Titans by ten. They lost to the Jags
- 49:48Speaker 3: by one. They lost to the Broncos by seven and
- 49:51Speaker 3: covered shut out. Pete Carroll and Pete Carroll if you're
- 49:54Speaker 3: down seventeen this week, kicked that field goal and then
- 49:56Speaker 3: they got They lost by fourteen to the Browns. They're
- 49:58Speaker 3: four and one against the spread after law is this
- 50:00Speaker 3: year and one of my favorite trends. I mean, the
- 50:03Speaker 3: main reason I like this is Bilo cell High Miller
- 50:06Speaker 3: might be back, Texans have some injuries. I make it
- 50:08Speaker 3: under two touchdowns. I think we're getting over two touchdowns
- 50:11Speaker 3: because of the perception of these two teams. And one
- 50:15Speaker 3: of my favorite trends rarely comes up, but when there's
- 50:19Speaker 3: a double digit dog in the NFL for a second
- 50:22Speaker 3: straight week that didn't cover in the first week, past
- 50:26Speaker 3: twenty five years, fifty to twenty five against the spread,
- 50:29Speaker 3: covering by about four points per game. Why do I
- 50:32Speaker 3: like that trend? Well, usually you're you're getting a point
- 50:36Speaker 3: or two of value because no one, no one in
- 50:39Speaker 3: the right mind wants to bet a team, right. They
- 50:41Speaker 3: were a double digitalg the week prior they didn't cover,
- 50:43Speaker 3: which means bad team, blown out, looked awful. The next
- 50:47Speaker 3: week they're double digit dog again, which means bad team
- 50:50Speaker 3: playing another good team. So who wants to bet this
- 50:53Speaker 3: bad team at that? They saw them lose thirty one
- 50:54Speaker 3: to nothing with seventy yards. I think that's why we're
- 50:57Speaker 3: getting over two touchdowns. So yeah, I like the Raiders
- 51:01Speaker 3: catching their two touchdowns. Think they think this line should
- 51:03Speaker 3: be like thirteen thirteen.
- 51:03Speaker 2: And a half.
- 51:04Speaker 1: Okay, that was a fantastic case, but no, I will
- 51:08Speaker 1: I love the Titans this week.
- 51:10Speaker 2: I voted the Titans easy, no case.
- 51:14Speaker 4: I was going to see the Raiders just because I'm
- 51:16Speaker 4: cheering so hard against the Texans.
- 51:18Speaker 5: So evan Titans, no question about it.
- 51:23Speaker 3: Money line, money line point.
- 51:25Speaker 1: We're going money line. Yeah, money, We're going money line favorites.
- 51:28Speaker 1: With the other two, I think I think we should
- 51:29Speaker 1: go money on.
- 51:30Speaker 2: They've covered.
- 51:31Speaker 5: They've covered six games this year after the worst Ats
- 51:34Speaker 5: year in NFL history. They've covered their last two against
- 51:37Speaker 5: teams under five hundred, which you know, just left to
- 51:39Speaker 5: let you know that is the Chiefs.
- 51:41Speaker 4: I touchdowns a lot. Can we do the points?
- 51:44Speaker 3: Touchdown Titans, Ravens, Cowboys six to one at Draftings gorgeous.
- 51:51Speaker 1: Let's ride that right there, Your two Kings and a
- 51:54Speaker 1: Queen parlay presented by Draft Kings. The Crown is yours.
- 51:58Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special. Thanks to our
- 52:00Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold, David Paynes, Statsound, Evan Abrams for breaking
- 52:04Speaker 1: some ties around here. Shout out to Stucky, his wife and.
- 52:09Speaker 2: His new Little Burrito. Glad to have you back.
- 52:11Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Sunday Night, Week sixteen. A
- 52:15Speaker 1: recap catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
- 52:17Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you next time here
- 52:19Speaker 1: on the Favorites presented by DraftKings.
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