Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 316 - 7/10/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 316 - 7/10/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 316 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Thirsty Thursday, Our work week rolls on.
0:39
Coming close to an end here, guys.
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We got today, we got tomorrow. Then another big weekend here
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ahead as the dog days of summer continue.
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And we're going to get right back to what we love doing.
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That's right, grinding Major League Baseball.
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I have a three pack of sweats for you guys today.
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A little bit of a smaller than usual slate.
0:55
There's only 11 games. There's a double header going on
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right now with the Mets in Baltimore.
1:00
Unfortunately, we had the Mets last night and didn't lose the
1:03
game, but also didn't win it because it got rained out.
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That's why they're playing a double header here for today.
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I did find 3 bets with all pretty short numbers here.
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Dog to fave line move, actually kind of two dog to fave line
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moves and then a short favorite here in a bounce back spot.
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So we're going to look to try to go 2 and 1, eek out a winning
1:21
day and hopefully have a good back end, you know, payout here
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because some of these numbers are are pretty short here across
1:27
the market. So a three pack overall, looking
1:30
back toward yesterday, guys, bit of a kind of not disappointing,
1:33
not terrible, but one in 1 -, 0.35 units who didn't have a
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good hit with the Yankees, the New York Yankees coming in, our
1:41
guy Cam Schlitter. And I was also seeing on on
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Twitter some of the funniest tweets I've ever seen where they
1:48
call Cal Rowley, who's MVP candidate, probably won't catch
1:51
Judge, but it's have an incredible year.
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The big catcher for Seattle, they call him the big dumper.
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And then on the bump was the rookie Cam Schlitter.
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So who who wins in a fight, Dick or a hurricane?
2:02
Who wins in a fight Schlitter or the big dumper?
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Anyway, maybe that's my, you know, middle school, you know,
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elementary school humor, but I thought that was kind of funny.
2:10
Anyway, our guy Schlitter, one of the top pitching prospects,
2:13
came in pitch great, got us a win there.
2:16
Remember, that's another teachable moment where often
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times when you open out a pick em, which way does a line move
2:21
that's meaningful. But when it comes specifically
2:23
to baseball, you bring up a new kid, never pitched in the bigs
2:27
before. Which direction does the line
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move to? The wise guys think, hey, you
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know, he's going to surprise some people and pitch well.
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The opponents have never seen him before.
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He's ready for the bigs. Or are the, you know, lights too
2:38
bright and he's going to get lit up.
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He's facing competition at a level he's never faced before.
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Well, see that line go to New York, Good sign there that our
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guy Schlitter was going to pitch well.
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And that's exactly what he did. So got the win with New York.
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As I mentioned, the Mets game got rained out.
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That was annoying because really crushed the closing line on that
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one. I want to say let me look back
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at my notebook. Mets were like -148 -, 150, I
3:03
think they close close to like -165 but again, hey, Mother
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Nature's going to have the have the last lap there.
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And then the the loser was the Cardinals.
3:13
And man, the Cardinals, they just got their faces ripped off,
3:16
losing 8 to 2. Polante got lit up.
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Gore pitched well. So what are you going to do
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there? Sharp line move that did not
3:22
come through. So either way, guys, 1 and 1 -,
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0.35 units. Sadly, our winning streak came
3:28
to an end, but hey, give 1/3 of a unit back.
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Let's see if we can get more than 1/3 of a unit back here for
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tonight. I will also mention before we
3:35
dive in, our sweats unveiled the All Systems Go Merch store
3:39
yesterday. So I mentioned it debuted on the
3:42
pod I was tweeting about a little bit.
3:44
But now, if you enjoy the pod and you want to rock a fade the
3:48
public sweatshirt or a reverse line move T-shirt or any kind of
3:53
other gear you want, I have all the phrases we talked about on a
3:56
daily basis and you can pick one up from the all systems go merch
3:59
store. And I've also I've already had a
4:01
couple people reach out and say they're they're liking it and
4:04
they look pretty sleek. And one thing that I like about
4:06
it is that you'll have like the tag phrase on the front.
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So it'll say like fade the trendy dog or, you know, always
4:12
money line short favorites or, you know, don't bet parlays,
4:14
whatever the the tag phrase is that we use on the pod with all
4:18
systems go logo. But then on the back of the
4:20
sweatshirt, it has the official all systems go logo, which I
4:25
think looks pretty sleek. So I'll pick one up and I want
4:28
to see again all the sharps who listen to the ASG pod rocking
4:31
the ASG merch at sports books across the country.
4:35
So that being said, without further ado, let's talk some
4:38
baseball for today. Guys.
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What do you say? I found three bets overall that
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caught my eye. So let's waste no more time and
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get right into it first. But on the board for me, near
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and dear to my heart, let's go to Fenway Park.
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Boston Red Sox hosting the Tampa Bay Rays, 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch tonight, opener of a three-game set.
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Let's talk line move that split system matches.
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I'll give you my play for this one.
5:01
So opener of the new series tonight.
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We got the Rays coming in 50 and 43 on the year.
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However, they did just drop two or three against the Tigers.
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Avoided the sweep though. They won that series finale 7 to
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3 yesterday as a + 125 row dog. Being all the Sox.
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They're getting hot now. Maybe they're just playing
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really bad teams, but they've won six in a row, swept the
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Nationals, and then they also just swept the Rockies.
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They're 49 and 45 on the year. They're giving me hope for the
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over 85 1/2 win total. I hope they don't, you know, RIP
5:30
the carpet underneath, out from underneath me.
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But anyway, they finish off the sweet beat.
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Colorado 1:50 yesterday as a big -360 home favorite.
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So pitching match up for tonight.
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We got the Rays going with the ready Taj Bradley.
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He's five and six with a 4.79 ERA this year.
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You know, all the Sox are going to go with the ready Walker
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Buehler, who has not been great six and six 6.25 ERA this
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season. Now, what do we see across the
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market? Well, if you're looking open a
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current, you might say this line really hasn't moved much, but it
5:59
really takes a closer look to kind of see which direction the
6:02
sharps are leaning and it looks to be the Red Sox.
6:06
So I'm going Sox here not because they're my favorite
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team, believe me, I bet on them quite a bit as well, but I like
6:11
this angle for Boston. So on the one hand, let's talk
6:14
about the opener. This game opened a lot of shops.
6:16
It was a pick em minus one O 5, both sides -110 both sides.
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But there were a couple books, including FanDuel that actually
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opened the rays a slight favorite.
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So the rays opened around a -, 115 Rd. favorite Boston around a
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kind of like a -1 O 5, even money dog.
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And we've seen this line only move toward Boston.
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So a lot of those games that were a lot of the books that
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open short dog to Boston. Boston is now up to -110 and
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some shops are even Red Sox now -115 so this movement, whether
6:48
it's a pick em or a slight favorite toward Tampa, it hasn't
6:51
moved toward Tampa. It's moved toward the Red Sox.
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Now, I'm not going to tell you it's a 10/20/30 cents the move,
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but it is, you know, 5-10 cents depending on which book you get
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your opener from. Set was the first indication
7:02
that, hey, maybe the Red Sox are a play here.
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Then what I really liked is I went to the bet splits which are
7:07
available at visen.com. Remember, if you don't know, I
7:10
am a sports betting analyst for vson.com.
7:13
I rate daily articles. You can check them out for my
7:15
Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
7:17
But VSON gives you the bet splits.
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We talk about them everyday, DraftKings and Circa and really
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the importance of looking at both and then kind of looking to
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look at intricacies or play them off each other.
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So I noticed is that out at Circa in Vegas, big smart money.
7:31
They respect and take in sharp action.
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The Red Sox only getting 35% of money line bets but 50% of money
7:39
line dollars. So out in Vegas, only 1/3 of
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tickets but half the money on Boston.
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Kind of leads you to believe that, hey, those bigger, sharper
7:46
wagers are leaning Red Sox. Another system match for me.
7:49
The Red Sox when both teams are coming off a win, matches here
7:53
just take the home team. It's a very simple system, but
7:55
it's 67 and 37 this year. 64 percent, 14% ROI.
8:00
I'm going to bank on the Red Sox bats hopefully getting to
8:03
Bradley and dear God can Bueller pitch well tonight cuz he has
8:07
not been good one year like 24,000,000 and boy has he been a
8:11
disappointment. But he had pitched better his
8:12
last time out so maybe that's a good sign.
8:15
But the Red Sox bats, they're hitting 100 or they have hit 120
8:19
home runs, 477 runs scored. Rays have only hit 103 homers
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and scored 441 runs. The Red Sox are hitting 272 as a
8:28
team at home. That's the second best home
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batting average in baseball. And maybe Bueller either
8:35
hopefully pitches better or just maybe he has Tampa Bay's number
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because he's faced them twice this year and won both games.
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In one game against the Rays, he went five innings, gave up two
8:44
runs. It was a seven to four win for
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Boston. And then the other game he went
8:48
7 innings, gave up three runs. It was a four to three win for
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the Red Sox. And then lastly, maybe the Red
8:53
Sox are just hot right now and we should take him especially as
8:55
kind of a home pick him or home short favorite play because over
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their last 10 games, the Red Sox are 8 and two.
9:01
They're hitting 3/28. They have a three-point 2O team
9:04
ERA. On the flip side, Tampa, they're
9:07
three and seven over their last ten, hitting 264 with a 4.55
9:11
ERA. Part of that again, trading
9:13
Raphael Devers. They had their lineup has kind
9:16
of come together a little bit. You just had Yoshida come back
9:19
yesterday and have three hits. But to me, the key here is
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hopefully the Red Sox offense staying hot and Bueller keeping
9:25
us in this game, but a little bit of line movement system
9:28
match that again, has done pretty well over time and
9:32
hopefully a better offensive performance with a red hot Red
9:35
Sox at Fenway. So I'm going Boston, not because
9:38
I want to sweat them or they're my favorite team.
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I learned a long time ago, don't bet your favorite teams just
9:42
because you like them. Bet something because you have a
9:46
valid set of reasons, database reasons to bet them.
9:49
But I was able to get Boston minus one O 8 at FanDuel.
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Shop around because some books are as high as -110 -, 115.
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But let's go Sox next one on the board.
9:59
I'm looking for some revenge tonight.
10:01
Let's go right back to Saint Louis, the scene of the crime
10:03
last night where the Cardinals got just destroyed.
10:06
Hoping we get some revenge tonight because we have a 7:45
10:09
PM Eastern Time rematch at Saint Louis with the Cards hosting the
10:14
Nationals. This is the rubber match of a
10:16
three-game set. The Cardinals who are 49 and 44
10:19
on the year they won the opener 4 to 2, came through as a big
10:23
-235 home favorite. Then the Nats don't remind me 38
10:27
and 54 in the year, but they bounced back with an 8 to two
10:30
win last night. Came through as a + 120 Rd. dog.
10:34
So pitching match up here for tonight the Nats are going with
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the righty Michael Soroka. He's three and six with a 5.4 O
10:40
ERA. You know the Cards going with
10:42
the righty Miles Michaelis, he's four and six with a 5.26 ERA.
10:46
So what do you see across the market here?
10:48
Will this game open? Saint Louis found a -135 home
10:52
favorite Washington A + 115 Rd. dog and we've seen nothing but
10:56
movement toward the Cardinals. That's what I'm getting.
10:59
That's why I kind of mentioned the revenge angle because Saint
11:01
Louis is taking some good line movement opening -135.
11:05
They've now been bet up to -145 Some shops even as high as -150
11:10
I jumped on the cards -140 at Bet MGM.
11:14
I believe there's still -140 Bet MGM, but again, shop around cuz
11:17
some looks closer to -150 but aside from that steam in favor
11:21
of the Cardinals. We do have a good bet split out
11:23
at circa only 44% of money line bets, but 60% of money line
11:28
dollars coming in on Saint Louis.
11:30
So technically that is a sharp contrarian, technically a
11:33
reverse line move again public in Vegas leaning Washington, but
11:38
big money in line movement going towards Saint Louis.
11:41
St. Louis does have just some
11:42
classic non division favorite value.
11:44
So the lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
11:47
better team. If we look at home Rd. and ready
11:51
ready lefty splits, If you look at the Cardinals, they're
11:53
hitting very well at home, hitting 263 as a team.
11:56
Now it didn't come through last night.
11:58
Hopefully they come through tonight, but that's the 6th best
12:01
home batting average in baseball.
12:03
And against righty's they're hitting 260.
12:05
That's the second best in baseball.
12:07
Conversely, the Nats, they're hitting 246 on the road, that
12:10
ranks 12th. They're hitting 247 against
12:12
righty's that ranks 18th. So basically have top 6 in
12:17
baseball Cardinals against righties and at home and we have
12:20
kind of bottom half of the league for the Nats are kind of
12:24
bottom 2/3 of the league against righties and on the road.
12:29
Now if you'll get both these starters, they don't look great.
12:31
Their numbers against Soroko Michaelis, they're prone to get
12:34
hit around. So worries me back in Michaelis,
12:36
but hope, hope he comes through tonight.
12:38
But the Cardinals are 8 and four and Michaelis's last twelve
12:42
starts. Soroko, meanwhile, he's made 12
12:45
starts this year. The Nats are three and nine in
12:47
those games. And then just some classic home
12:49
Rd. The Nats are 20 and 26 on the
12:51
road. So six games below 500
12:54
Cardinals, even though they blew it last night, they're pretty
12:56
good home team to back 27 and 18 overall.
13:00
So I know they annoyed us last night, but I'm getting right
13:02
back are getting get going right back to the well with Saint
13:05
Louis. Decent line move.
13:08
Couple couple good angles here in terms of offense as well as
13:11
the head to head matchups with the pitchers.
13:14
So shop around. I got Cardinals -140 again some
13:17
books as high as -145 - 150 last night of the night, staying up
13:23
late, going right back to the West Coast. 9:38 PM Eastern
13:27
Time, first pitch, the Texas Rangers visiting the LA Angels.
13:31
Now this is the final game of a four-game set and the Angels who
13:35
are 45 and 47, they've won two of the first three games.
13:39
Last night they won 11 to 8 as around a -, 110 home pick em.
13:43
So pitching match up here for tonight.
13:45
The Rangers, who are 45 and 48, they're going to go with the
13:48
lefty Patrick Corbin five and seven 4.18 ERA this season.
13:52
Halos meanwhile, going with the ready Jack Kachanowitz 3 and
13:56
eight 5.42 ERA. So what have you seen across the
13:59
market here? Well, this is one of the
14:01
sharpest moves of the day. Dog to fave baby in favor of the
14:05
angels. I'm going angels in the outfield
14:07
tonight. Guys.
14:08
We open this game Texas around a -, 125 Rd. favorite LAA plus one
14:13
O 5 home dog and the public is saying give me Texas.
14:16
I'm not totally sure why they technically have the I guess
14:21
slightly better record by like 1/2 a game.
14:24
Maybe it's just a play by the public saying hey, both teams
14:27
aren't that good so it's got to be a split.
14:29
No way the Angels win three out of four in that regard. 68% of
14:34
money line bets are on Texas back in Corbin.
14:37
However, even though you're getting 2/3 of bets on the
14:41
Rangers, the Rangers haven't gone up to -125 -, 135 - 140.
14:46
It's completely tanked away from Texas toward the Halos.
14:51
Halos have gone from a plus one O 5 home dog and now flipped to
14:54
a - 115 home favorite. So woo woo dog to fave line
14:59
move. And again, you can get your dog
15:01
to fave line move sweatshirt or T-shirt from the all systems go
15:05
to merch store. But anyway, aside from the dog
15:07
to fave line move, great bet split on the Angels at Circa.
15:10
Only 33% of money line bets, but 93% of money line dollars.
15:15
So a big low bets higher dollar split in favor of the Angels.
15:19
Further validation those bigger circa desert wagers.
15:23
Going with the Halos couple system matches lighting up on
15:26
the Angels when both teams are below 500.
15:29
Take the home favorite off a win, which would match with or
15:33
Sorry, take a home favorite. Did I get that right?
15:38
Because. Yeah, because the Halos won last
15:39
night. Sorry, I don't know what I was
15:40
thinking. Yeah.
15:41
Home favorite off a win because they won 11/8 last night.
15:43
That system is 50 and 2567 percent, 8% ROI.
15:49
And then you might have kind of buried the lead.
15:51
I didn't really give any inflection my voice, but it's
15:54
Patrick Corbin on the bum. Now.
15:55
I'll give Corbin credit. He's pitched decent this year,
15:58
4.18 ERA. However, it is technically Fade
16:02
Corbin Day for those of you who've been paying attention.
16:04
Fading Patrick Corbin since 2020.
16:08
So going on what, 5-6 seasons now, at this point, you would
16:11
have a 99 and 53 record, 65% win rate, 9% ROI.
16:17
You put 100 bucks against Corbin every time he goes out to the
16:19
bump, you're up nearly $1400. Now you might say, oh, is that
16:23
still profitable? Well, technically it is.
16:25
This year it's 10 and six. Fading Corbin, 62 percent, 7%
16:29
ROI. So that would match with of
16:32
course the Angels fading Corbin here tonight.
16:36
Next we do have a better offense for the the Angels hitting 134
16:41
homers, 397 runs scored. Texas 96 homers, 366 runs
16:45
scored. Angels aren't amazing at home
16:48
but they are winning team at home. 22 and 21.
16:50
Rangers by the way on the road only 19 and 29.
16:54
That is tied for the 4th worst Rd. record in baseball.
16:57
And the Rangers as a road dog are just 10 and 20.
17:01
Only a 33% win rate -8 1/2 units or nearly 9 units.
17:06
So 100 bucks each game on the Rangers.
17:07
On the road, you're down nearly 900 bucks -30% ROI.
17:12
And a little cherry on top. You're holding out that ice
17:15
cream cone. I'm going to drop a cherry on
17:16
this one. Pop open the Juice Reel app.
17:19
I noticed a 21% sharp mush edge in favor of the Halos.
17:23
So 25% or sorry, 21% more of the sharper winning players are
17:28
going Angels in the spot. So you got it all up here guys.
17:31
I want to be with that sharp mush edge.
17:33
We got a dog to fave line move. You had me a dog to fave line
17:35
move. But some good splits and good
17:37
movement. Hopefully Kochanowitz pitch as
17:40
well and the bats of LA can get to Corbin.
17:42
I got the angels -112 at FanDuel.
17:45
Shop around some books now, or most books -115 so Red Sox,
17:49
Cardinals, Angels, can we find a way to get two out of three, go
17:52
2 and 1, eke out a winning night.
17:54
That, of course, is always the goal.
17:57
So that about does it for episode 316, Austin 316.
18:00
Where are my wrestling fans? Back in the day in middle
18:02
school, I was a big Stone Cold fan.
18:04
So anyway, but this is the part of the pod where we wrap things
18:08
up. And I start first by saying
18:10
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
18:12
out of your day, out of your busy lives.
18:13
I know you got a lot going on. Maybe your kids are at camp.
18:17
You know, I don't have kids yet. I hope one day I have a kid, but
18:21
my nieces are visiting my mom and dad and staying with them
18:24
for the week. My sister-in-law, my sister and
18:26
my brother-in-law are very happy about that.
18:28
But whether it's, you know, going to the Cape, doing
18:31
whatever you're doing, having a good summer, the dog days of
18:33
summer, the fact you guys still TuneIn and sweat baseball every
18:36
day with me, it means a lot. So if you do want to let me know
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you appreciate the pod or support the pod or again, just
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help us grow. I would love for you guys if you
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have the chance to give this podcast a five star review on
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Spotify or iTunes if you want to leave a nice comment under the
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review section or also maybe just hit the follow button.
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That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
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I recommend the pod to a friend. Word of mouth is also
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appreciated, so I thank you for the support.
19:06
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
19:09
sharp contrarian betting, I peruse Twitter.
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I'm pretty up on what's going on.
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I don't see any podcast like this at all.
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Again, a lot of pods I, I, I, I see your stuff on Twitter.
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It's all opinion based betting. Hey, all the power to you, but
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opinions, they're not going to cash many tickets for you
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because they're flawed there. There's a, you know, bias
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involved. So if this style of betting has
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appealed to you, win, lose or draw, you value the insights.
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Hopefully you know that, hey, we're playing a long game.
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If this style of betting has maybe just kind of caught you or
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you got the bug and now you're loving breaking down line
19:42
movement and bet splits and system matches and you want to
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Well, I would love it if you wanted to go to Amazon.com and
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I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale,
20:51
sweat some games together. How about that next, Have you
20:54
downloaded Juice Reel and Rhythm yet?
20:55
My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm does a great job of
20:58
powering this pod and giving us AI backed models and predictions
21:02
for game bets and player props. WNBA, they have their power
21:05
trends now, which are amazing. I noticed on WNBA they've really
21:08
been crushing it with their power trend props and then also
21:11
MLB for player props and game models spread money line and and
21:15
run line. So download rhythm and then of
21:18
course you got to go download Juice Reel.
21:20
I'm going to pass the hat. This pod is free.
21:22
It cost you nothing to hear my voice.
21:24
So if you want to support the pod, let me know you appreciate
21:26
the pod. I'd love for you guys to sign up
21:28
to get the ASG podcast official best bets directly from Juice
21:32
Reel. When I bet him, I got my book
21:34
synced up. I bet it at you know, one of my
21:36
books it goes right to Juice Reel and you guys will get that
21:39
alert. You can tail fade, do whatever
21:41
you like, but hopefully you want to support the team and maybe
21:44
beat some closing lines and get better numbers.
21:46
It costs $4.99 a week, basically a cup of coffee or a half a half
21:52
a cup of Starbucks coffee if you're like my wife.
21:55
But anyway, aside from the all systems go best bets, you're
21:58
going to get sharp mush indicators.
22:00
The Robo Jackson best bet picks, the arbitrage plays the shop for
22:04
the best line futures. Sync up your books, get a
22:06
running report card of your action.
22:07
It's all available when you download juice reel.
22:10
So download rhythm, download juice reel, give him a five star
22:13
review, make my my friend Megan and my friend Ricky Gold happy.
22:18
That would go a long way. Next, do you have a live odds
22:22
page? If you don't, you need one.
22:24
I don't know how you're betting on a daily basis.
22:26
If you don't have access to the data, it makes it that much
22:28
harder. It's hard enough to win, but if
22:30
you don't know, you know what the line opened at, what it is
22:33
currently, how it moved. You don't know which books
22:36
giving you the best price. You can't identify steam.
22:38
When something gets lit up in red, you know it's moving.
22:41
There are so many advantages, especially live scoring.
22:43
You want a live line, you got to know the live line.
22:45
There's so many advantages to the odds logic Live odds page.
22:49
I'd love for you guys to test it out.
22:51
Either you don't have a live odds page and you should check
22:53
it out and see how beneficial it is.
22:54
Or maybe you have 1:00 and it's free but it's delayed, doesn't
22:57
give you a lot of books, it's unreliable.
22:59
Or maybe you have one and you pay for it and it's pretty good,
23:02
but you're paying 250 a month, 500 a month.
23:05
Well, don't do that downgrade in terms of price, but I would say
23:09
upgrade or stay the same in terms of the value and give odds
23:12
logic a shot. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
23:17
123 and with that link oddslogic.com/josh 123, you're
23:22
going to get a 7 day free trial and then 50% off your first
23:25
month. And if you like it and you want
23:26
to keep it, it's only 99 bucks a month.
23:29
So you could get basically a month and a week, 5 weeks of it
23:32
for like 49 bucks to see if you like it.
23:35
And then I think you're going to like it and it'll be the
23:37
basically the number one bookmark page you you spend all
23:39
day staring at. That's what I do next to last.
23:43
I got to just like, you know, fix my, my spiel.
23:45
I could give you my final spiel like, you know, backhanded, you
23:48
know when you got to like recite the alphabet backwards.
23:51
I've done it so many Times Now, but I got to find a way to, you
23:54
know, layer in the new the new ASG merch store.
23:57
So if you want to support the pod and again walk into the book
24:01
like a like a wise guy, will they fade the public T-shirt or
24:05
sweatshirt? I would love for you guys to go
24:07
to the all systems go merch store.
24:09
You can find it on my Twitter account.
24:11
I'm going to keep the link in the bio description of the
24:14
podcast. But if you want to order a
24:16
sweatshirt AT shirt, whatever, a hoodie, I think it'd be pretty
24:20
cool to see all these ASG fade the public shirts at the sports
24:24
book and you're like, oh, nice shirt, where'd you get it?
24:26
Oh, that's this podcast to listen to.
24:28
That would be pretty cool. So that about does it for
24:31
episode 316 of the ASG pod. As always, guys, we'll be right
24:35
back at it tomorrow. We'll finish up with a final
24:39
thought here, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
24:43
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
24:45
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
24:48
Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino R.E.M.
24:50
GM Springfield and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are
24:53
out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy
24:56
Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest juice possible
24:59
is found at the South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays
25:02
jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
25:04
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, or it may be you're going
25:07
to walk up to me, you're going to show me a Yankees ticket and
25:11
don't show me Cardinals, man getting blown out eight to two
25:13
at all. And that was pathetic and I was
25:16
disappointed the the Mets game got rained out because I was
25:18
looking forward to sweating them last night.
25:20
But anyway, guys, we keep on grinding.
25:22
First one's on me, next one's on you.
25:23
We got three more games here to sweat for tonight.
25:26
So that about does it. As always, guys, you know, one
25:29
in one, O and two, two and O. Whether we had a great night, a
25:32
terrible night grinding. We're hot, we're cold.
25:35
We just got to stick with it. Never get too high or too low
25:37
because when we're hot and things are going well, we can't
25:40
get cocky and arrogant because betting is hard and we're never
25:43
as good as we think when we're hot.
25:45
But also when we're cold and struggling and nothing's going
25:47
our way and it's bad beats left and right.
25:49
You're beating closing lines and losing.
25:51
Hey, that's part of betting too. So we can't get too low when
25:54
that's happening either. We just got to stay even keeled
25:57
and grind the the model long term.
26:00
And by now you might have might have picked up on what that
26:02
model is. It's complex, but we can boil it
26:04
down to this, finding games that fit our model bet, making bets
26:08
with our head, not our heart against the public, with the
26:10
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
26:14
closing line value. If we can do that, I'm pretty
26:16
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
26:19
So have a great Thursday night everybody.
26:21
I forgot to mention I will be on Visen Live tonight, my buddy
26:24
Patrick Maher and Dustin Sweetlson on SiriusXM.
26:28
So hope to see you guys there. Typically we have some some
26:30
pretty fun conversations, mostly about betting, but also it's
26:33
about other stuff. So so check it out.
26:35
And then after that, we'll be right back at it tomorrow for a
26:38
final part of the week. And that'll be episode 317 of
26:41
the ASG Pod powered by Rhythm coming to you live on a big
26:45
Friday tomorrow. But first, let's get some
26:47
winners here tonight. Good luck every and everybody
26:49
and have a great Thirsty Thursday.