Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | MLB & NBA | 4/10/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | MLB & NBA | 4/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that I have not had, had a good season. Man
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my Bruins hat Man. I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. March e is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five, the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about this anymore. Slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Toadstool Sports, Friday, April tenth. Good thing I passed on
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the show yesterday because it would not have gone well.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I'm adjusting my volume here a little bit here by
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the way. Uh, I don't know you. If you guys
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: are out there, you can let me know if my
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: audio is decent. Had to tweak it a little bit
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: for a Neflin death Squad yesterday, so you guys can
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: go check that out. I was on that show. Yes.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: It was a fun time. But we're back. We're gonna
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: be back in action here today. We're gonna have two
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: MLB plays, one NBA play, huge board in both sports,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna try to be selective again. I'm actually
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the total in the NBA this time.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: I gotta do something, man, I can't help I can't
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: help myself. I'm not gonna skip NBA every single day.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Why not. Let's wet our beaks a little bit with
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the total here. Let's let's get it going, man, Let's
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: get that ticker back up, back up and running. Get
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: the heart of the show running again. All right, no
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: plays yesterday, so that's why we got, you know, ten
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and three in the last six days. Now, happy about
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: the run, but cooled off a little bit the other
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: day with the two and two. Let's go, man. We
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: have baseball today. Almost all the action is nighttime action
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: because it is a Friday. There is one afternoon basketball
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: excuse me basketball, that would be crazy. One afternoon baseball game.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: All the basketballs at night. And there's no NHL because
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I think the NHL and NBA just do the stupid
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: thing at the end of the season now where every
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: team's got to play on the same day. Man, So
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: there's no NBA tomorrow. It's all NHL tomorrow. But of
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: course Major League Baseball continues with normal scheduling anyway. Pirates
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: and Cubs is the first game in the afternoon here.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Neither of these teams played yesterday, so we have rested bullpens.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: That's the one thing I like about these turnover days
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: is you don't have to handicap the bullpens the rest
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: as much because most teams didn't play yesterday. Cubs are
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip. They went as far
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: as Tampa Bay. It was a multiple series road trip,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: only two series, though. I think the sweet spot is
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: really fading these teams that return home from three series
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: road trips. But either way, when a team's on a
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: road trip and they return home, it tenes to me
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: a negative spot just generally because home life comes back
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: into play. It can distract the team a little bit. Cubs, though,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're sitting at the bottom of the standings
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: right now in the Central so I don't know that
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: they're really gonna completely overlook Pittsburgh here, But maybe not
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the greatest spot with the Cubs returning home here. Pittsburgh
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: is starting a road trip, so probably more positive spot
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: for them coming off a home series loss. So that
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: is the type of situation I look for where you
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: have a team starting a road trip against a team
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: returning home from one. The problem is some of the
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers just don't really line up for it. Here.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: For Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh has been better than you would think
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: though looking at the bullpen here, they're almost comparable with
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. The bullpen why so far this year the
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Cubs have just been slightly better. But I think the
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Cubs do it, probably have the better bullpen generally. I mean,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: we still don't have that much of a sample size here.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Cubs have not been as good as you would think offensively,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: They're in the middle of the pack on offense. Pirates
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: have actually been better on offense so far this season.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Still don't know if that's really going to continue to
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: be the case though, And just on the surface, the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: started pitching matchup like clearly favors the Cubs here. Digging
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: into the numbers here doesn't really tell you any different.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Lodzinsky is pitching for the Pirates here. He's fine, I mean,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: he's serviceable at thirteen to three strike out walk ratio
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: is fine, pretty high strike out rate, more than one
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: strike up er inning. He's given up a few too
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: many hits though his numbers just overall are not really
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: that good. One point five to six whip is definitely
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: kind of damning going up against the Cubs. Of course,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: ESPN does not update this his numbers are not very
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: good against the Cubs and forty eight at bats three
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: twelve average allowed seven to forty oh ps eleven of
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: four strike out walk ratio. So none of those numbers
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: are really something I would really want to back. And
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: he's going up against show toa I Minaga, who I
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: think is probably the best starter that the cub have,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: even with Horton if he was healthy, I think I
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: would still give it to Imanaga. He's been okay to
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: start the season. He had kind of a questionable start
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: in his first start against Washington, who has actually been
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: hitting way better than you would think, and then he
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: had a bounce back against Cleveland, better start there, eleven
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio. So far. I think
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: he's getting into form again here, man, I mean, I'm
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I don't really have concerns with the Monaga here. Pirates
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: of course have seen him before because they're in the division,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: but he's pretty much dominated them in forty nine at
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: bats one forty three average allowed three thirty five ops
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: thirteen to three strike out walk ratio. So matchup wise,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the Cubs that clearly have a matchup advantage here. The
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: situation favors Pittsburgh. So when I see that matchup versus situation,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I just pass on the game, and it's what I do.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Cubs did drop for minus one fifty nine to minus
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: one thirty eight. It looks like some money is coming
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: in on the Cubs at the low or number, but
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: they're public eighty four percent of tickets, eighty eight percent
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. You know, again, I don't
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: have a good read on the side here, because again
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: it's situation versus matchup numbers. And I know I'm more
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: of a situational guy, but in baseball not as much.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Baseball is just so matchup oriented. I actually think the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: matchup matters a little bit more. And as far as
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: the total, it's all the way down to six and
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: a half. Now you might still find a seven out there,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: numbers kind of indicating towards the under. I don't have
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a good feel for that either, really, although you do
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: have rested bullpens here. Both starters are I think at
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: least okay, so you know, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: an over, but it's six and a half. You're really
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: not getting much leeway. But remember it's in Wrigley so
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the fact that the total is that low pretty much
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: has to do with the fact that the win must
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: be blowing in there. If you could get really granular
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: with it, you could go pirates under their team total
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: might be a way to go. But you're really skating
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: on it there because you're probably gonna need them to
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: score like two runs at most in the game. If
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: you do, that could happen, but I don't really want
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: to bank on it. Kyle's optics are hanging out acidentally
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: at the default stream yard banner that I can't get
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: rid of or comments. I mean, yeah, we're getting back
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: to it today. I'm gonna have a few plays today.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Let's get it, ma'am. Next game up, starting the evening slate,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Arizona in Philadelphia. Arizona played yesterday and they beat the Mets,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: so they're at a slight disadvantage here because they did
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: play yesterday, although the travel from New York to Philadelphia
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: is not that bad, but Philadelphia is more rested sort
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: of because they were off. But they're also not in
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a particularly good spot because they're returning home from a
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: road trip and they went into high elevation into Colorado
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: and they're out on the Pacific Coast in San Francisco,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: so it's not really a good spot for Philadelphia either.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So the fact they're returning home from a road trip
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: kind of negates the rest advantage that they would have
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: here return home spot. As I always say, it's not
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: good now bullpen wise, Arizona, I mean, their bullpen does stink,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: although if you look at their bullpens over the course
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: of the season, I think both bullpens have actually been
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: not as bad as you would think. But I do
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: think Arizona's is definitely bad. But right now, in the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: middle of the pack, their whip is actually better than
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: their ra makes them look. Phillies actually my mistake. Phillies
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: are actually up in the top four of bullpens right now.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Their erra doesn't look that good, but the whip is good.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: But still it's a small sample size, hard to read.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: But anyway you look at it, Philly does have the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here. Arizona's offense has actually not been as
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: good as you would think. Neither as Phillies either, so
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: both offenses are kind of off to a questionable start.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Although I might get Philadelphia a little bit of an
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: offensive edge here. I think they do hit a little
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: bit better at home as well, but then again, returning
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip with a day off, that
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: could mean you're bats are gonna cool off a little bit,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: whereas that might actually be an advantage for Arizona haven't
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: played yesterday because they were able to get some offense going,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: and their offense can kind of stay in rhythm. Michael
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Sarraka pitching for Arizona. Here, He's been fine this season.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I mean he's actually been good, although his whip would
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: indicate that his sub one ERA should be higher than
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: that with a one point two whip. Still, thirteen to
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: four strike a walk ratio is not bad. I don't
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: think he's great either. Against the Phillies. They're pretty familiar
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: with him because he pitched in their division for a while.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Fifty one at bats to seventy five batting average allowed,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: seven to nineteen ops. These are all pretty mediocre numbers.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Eleven to four strike a walk ratio is not great,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So Phillies are able to hit him, but they don't
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: light him up. He doesn't do well against them particularly either.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a wash with him. Jazus Lozardo for
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Phillies he's actually been good, even though you see his
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: era is almost five that doesn't look good, but his
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: whip is underneath one, and he has an eighteen to
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: one strike a walk ratio so far which is very good,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: and a very high strikeout rate. So he is in
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: really good form right now. I think he actually got
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: unlucky against Texas that they hit home runs that were
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: very timely against him. He went into course field and
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: completely dominated in a non pitcher from the environment, Lozardo.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: He's very streaky though, like he has these hot streaks
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: where he's unhittable and then he has streaks where he's
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: just got awful. So I don't know what we're necessarily going
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to get out of him here, but he's definitely I mean,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: when you look at it, he's in good form right
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: now until you see otherwise, you know. And his numbers
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: against Arizona are pretty good fifty at bats to forty
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: average allowed five INNY nine oh ps, very low. The
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: only issue here is the walks ten to five strike
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio that's not very good. I think you
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: have to give Lozardo the starting pitching edge here. Phillies
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: are all the way up to minus one seventy seven,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: though for minus one forty seven, they should win the game.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think you gotta give him a bullpen
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: edge here. They got to rest more rested bullpen here,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: just for completetion sake. Arizona they used only two relievers yesterday, though,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: which isn't that bad hitting wise. You know, neither team
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: has really taken off yet. But I think you could
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: make the argument Philly's better in that department too. Like
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I said, Philly returning home from a road trip, though,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: that's not a good situation. Like I'm almost never gonna
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: be on a team returning on from a road trip.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: It's a pass for me. Again, Both these first two
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: games are kind of situation versus pitching matchup here. I
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: think Philadelphia should win the game, but the price is
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: probably not quite right there. Total has dropped a little bit.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess there are some arguments for an
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: under here. I don't really trust either bullpen though. If
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I was gonna go under, i'd try to do it
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: first five innings probably, But I don't know if I
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: necessarily trust Soroka in that matchup. Trust Lozardo a little
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: bit more, but he can have a bad start anytime too,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: although of course any pitcher can, but you know, you
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: gotta try to figure it out. Dirty sock, what's up?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Next up is the first play
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: of the day. We got two sides in baseball today.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: This is a full game side. We're gonna go with
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the Detroit Tigers. I found a minus one run line
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: out there at a good price, Like we're basically making
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: it a spread bat here and minus Want to wait,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I know the professionals will tell you. A lot of
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: them will tell you not to lay the minus one
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: and a half run line with the home team because
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: they might not get to bat in the ninth inning.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Sometimes I will do that, but Detroit's a small ish
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: enough favorite here that I think the minus one run
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: line is like right in that sweet spot there. Of course,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: if they win by one, it'll be a push, which
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: is not you know, the end of the world here.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that instead of laying like you're
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: mostly looking at minus one fifty something, and usually I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: make my money line cut off right at minus one
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: fifty here, So I'm gonna go run line with this
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: instead to get it down to minus one. To wait,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I like Detroit in this game. I mean, the pitching
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: matchup doesn't look like it's good on either side, but
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: we have some advantages here for Detroit. In my opinion,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: I believe both teams played yesterday. Miami is coming off
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: beating Cincinnati in the last two games. They looked way
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: too good yesterday with an eight to one win, possibly
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. I know Miami's exceeded expectations so far, man, Yes,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Miami is the fourth best offense so far based on ops.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I realize that Detroit's not horrible middle of the pack,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: so I think we can kind of deal with that,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: and I expect that there those teams I think are
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: gonna become more equal as we go. Man, Like, we
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: know who who is on each one of these teams,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: and I don't really see Miami being that much better
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: of an offense than Detroit. Bullpen wise, Miami's fallen off
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit since a hot start there now in
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: bullpen Whip, Detroit is still middle of the pack or
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: almost headed into the bottom third. But they're overall their
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: eras not that bad though, although they've been putting too
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: many guys on base. But I still think there's not
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: as much of a gap in the bullpens either, as
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: these numbers would suggest. Right now. Again, with Miami, you
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: got to take into account that they face some really
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: bad teams at the beginning of the season. But as
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: we get a bigger and bigger sample size, you know,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: it's harder and harder to ignore Detroit, though they have
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: to win a game, do you know what I mean?
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Come on, Yes, they're returning home from a road trip,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: but it was only a one series road trip to Minnesota.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's a bad road trip spot here
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. Yeah, they're returning home again, but
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: they've been gone for less than a week. This is
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: a travel spot that they're very familiar with, and they've
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: lost five games in a road Dude, they just got
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: swept by the Twins. I mean, come on, the Twins
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: are awful. Detroit is supposed to be the best team
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: in this division. It's about time that they should show it, man,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: because I don't know what's going on them. They lost yesterday.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen usage, Detroit only used well
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: three relievers, but they only use Herder for one pitch,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: so he could pitch again if they want him. To
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Miami used two as well, so both bullpens are rested.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: But again, you could go first five inning on this.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: But part of the reason I'm going full game here
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: is just because I think you're gonna get a seriously
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: motivated Tigers team here to get this win. And they
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: were better at home last year as well, So we're
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: going with all that here and there facing a starter,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I think the biggest advantage is in the starting pitching matchup,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: even though I don't even love Detroit starter. But Chris
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Paddock is pitching for the Marlins. He's off to a
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: pretty bad start. I know. He might say, well, he
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: just shut out the Yankees for four and two thirds. Yeah,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: but he walked four guys. He got pretty lucky they
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: didn't allow any runs in that game. Man, ten to
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: four strike out walk ratio doesn't really impress me, even
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: though strike out rate is pretty high. He just hasn't
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: been good throughout his career. Man, what else can I say?
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: He's thirty years old now, he's never really taken off,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: and Detroit is definitely familiar with him because he was
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota for the majority of his career and Detroit
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: actually had him at the end of the season they
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: actually traded for him, which, yes, it might mean that
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: he might actually be angry or whatever motivated get up
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: for this game because he's facing the team that let
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: him go at the end of last year. But I
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: don't think that's an off man. Detroit is very familiar
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: with him. They have forty four at bats. It's not
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: a huge sample size against him, but three forty one
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: batting average off in one thy forty two oh ps,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Detroit has definitely done well against him. Eight to three
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio is not good either, So I
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: don't like what we're seeing with Paddock with his numbers there.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Just generally I don't think he's good. Keeter Montero is
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Tigers. I mean, I'm not a huge
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: fan of his either. He's only made one start this season.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Sometimes they put an opener in front of him, so
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: you do have to be aware of that. So you
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: might want to go action with this bet as I
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: talk about sometimes instead of going with the default with
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the listed starters must start, because there is a chance
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that Montero does not start this game, and I think
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get him in this game for at least
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: like three or four innings probably, But even if they
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: put an opener in front of him, I still prefer
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Detroit here. But that is definitely a concern with Detroit
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: because Detroit is they're known for doing that. They're known
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: for using openers some bullpen games and stuff like that.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: So I'm yeah, I might recommend going action with this bet.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: So the bet just happens regardless. For Montero, I mean,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: he wasn't bad in that one start. It wasn't against
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: a pretty bad Cardinal team, but he was fine. I mean,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: he is what he is, man. But against the Marlins,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I believe he actually has pretty good numbers. Yeah, fifteen
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: at bats, they really haven't seen much of him. He's
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: allowed no extra base hits to them, three strikeouts, no
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: walks to one thirty three as average two sixty seven ops.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: I know it's a very small sample, but I think
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: we gotta do it, man, we gotta go with Detroit
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: in this one. The money seems to agree with me.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Of course, it would have been a lot better if
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: we got the minus one twenty right when it opened.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: It's all the way up to about minus one forty five.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you can find a money line in
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the minus one forties, you could do that, but on
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: this one, I'm gonna reduce the price down. We're gonna
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: go with Detroit minus one on the run line, which
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: you can find it DeKay and probably some other outfits
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: as well. Look under the alternate run lines to find that.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: But if you want to play money line, you could
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: do that as well. It's just you have to pay more,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than I would like for it.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: But yes, we're going with the Detroit Tigers. Anaheim at Cincinnati.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I first started looking at this game and I'm like, well,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Anaheim didn't play yesterday, so that's an advantage to them.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: They're starting a road trip coming off a couple losses.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: That's usually a focused spot. When you start a road trip,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: you know you want to get the road trip off
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: on the right foot. Since a natur he played yesterday,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: and the returning home from a road trip where they
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: went to Texas and Miami. Now they're coming back home
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: after playing yesterday, so a lot of the situational angles
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: favor Anaheim here, so I'm thinking, Okay, that looks pretty
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: good for Anaheim here. For Cincinnati, they only used two
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Yesterday though, so their bullpen is not totally
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: unrested here bullpen. Why Cincinnati's bullpen hasn't been that bad though,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: They're actually fairly good. They're twelfth right now, but their
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: era is pretty good. Anaheim, we know, I knock their bullpen.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: They're like a bottom third bullpen. They're not as bad
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: as I thought they would be so far, but certainly
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the lesser of the two bullpens. Looking at the hitting,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: the reds or somewhere in the middle of the pack
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: if I remember, No, they're actually way near the bottom. Actually,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: both teams are near the bottom of hitting. So Anaheim
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: actually has been the slightly better offense, although I don't
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: know if it's gonna remain that way, but both the
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: offenses have struggled. The problem I have with this those
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: it's a really good situation for Anaheim. This game is
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: on Apple TV, by the way, and that Arizona Philadelphia
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: games the one of the ESPN Unlimited games or whatever
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the hell. Anyway, the starting pitching matchup in this Anaheim
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati game is just sol lopsided towards Cincinnati that there's
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: no way that I could fade Cincinnati here, even though
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: they're in a bad spot. Situational I would love it
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: if the situational angle. Do we have all these situational
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: angles then none of them line up with the pitching matchup.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: I would love it if those two things lined up.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: It would be a massive play for me. Although never
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: over bet man, just you know, maintain your betting a structure.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: But I mean it would be an obvious play for me.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: But this can't be. I mean, do we really want
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: to put money on Jack Kohanowitz? I would say no.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, his whip is still over one and a half.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I know he looked good in his last outing, he
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: shut out Seattle. Seattle's offense has been miserable so far
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: this year. I don't know what's going on with them.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: He looked good in that start. I'll give him that
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: shut out for five to two thirds, but overall ten
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: to seven strikeout walker ratio is still putting one and
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: a half guys on base. His career numbers are an
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: absolute disaster. I mean, he's only twenty five. So is
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: there a chance that he actually starts pitching better? Yeah,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: there is. I'm not gonna bank on it, though, I
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to bank on it in this game. Either
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: against the Reds. They haven't seen much of him, so
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: there is that only nine at bats, but they've hit
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: him three point thirty three average one ten ops in
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: that span. They're three for nine with two doubles off him,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: a strikeout in a walk. But the majority of the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Red's lineup has never seen him before. And yes, usually
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: that is an edge to the pitcher, but even the
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: guys that I mean, the guys that saw him, saw
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: him for the first time and they still hit him.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: And it's a hitter from the park here, So I'm yeah,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: I would not want to have my money on him.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: And he's going up against Chase Burns, who is I think,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: the much better pitcher. He's pretty much proven at this point. Man,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: He's again, like I said, people gonna know his name
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: like probably within the next like a couple of weeks.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I would imagine. He's been really good so far this season.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Sixteen strikeouts in eleven innings, pitch four walks, but he
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: settled down with the walks too, only walking one in
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: his last douting against Texas. Now, granted he's faced Pittsburgh
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: in Texas, but those offense has actually have been better
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: than you would think so far this year, and Burns
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: has never been seen before by the Angels, so he
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: has that same advantage. Actually, sorry, Parasa has seen him
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: before my mistake one for two often, but nobody else
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: in their lineup has ever faced him before, so he
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: has the same advantage of being a complete unknown. And
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I think he's clearly the better pitcher here, which is
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: why Cincinnati is a big favorite. They're up for minus
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: one seventy one to minus one eighty one here. Burns
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: is getting respect in the market here. It is probably
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: too much of a price to lay. I'll give you that,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: given how many situational negatives there are for Cincinnati here,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati, I think if you go with Cincinnati here,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: first five inning makes more sense. Again, the situation just
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: does not line up with the pitching matchup here at all.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: So it's yeah, it's a game where I have to
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: stay away from it. Man, I don't even have a
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: good opinion on it. Again, we just have situations flying
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: in the face of matchups here. I don't like it
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: at all. Rio, what's up man? Yep? They do? What
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: better for the Tigers offense? What better cure is there
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: than facing a horrible pitcher who they've seen a bunch
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: like Paddock. So that's that's what I'm going with man Alright,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at Toronto. Minnesota just swept Detroit, so there is
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: the possibility they have a little bit of a let
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: down here. They played yesterday and Toronto did not, so
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: that's another disadvantage from Minnesota. Minnesota only used two relief
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: pitchers though, so a lot of these teams didn't use
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of relievers yet today because they know that
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: they're having to play again today, so they try to
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: not burn out their bullpen. For the most part, Toronto,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: they just beat the Dodgers, but they're staying at home
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: and they have a day of rest, and they still
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: lost the series that actually ended along losing streak for Toronto,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: so maybe that'll give them some new momentum. But beating
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the team that beat them in the World Series in
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: a game, yes, it could be a letdown spot possibly
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: for Toronto again coming in here. But I think what
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Minnesota did was much much bigger sweeping Detroit so on
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: the road, I believe, so, actually, no, it was at home,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: I think actually, hold on, yeah, it was at home,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: my mistake. So yeah, Minnesota is starting a road trip,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: which sometimes that is a focused spot, but I think
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: it could be a letdown spot for them. It could
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: potentially be a letdown for both teams here. Minnesota's bullpen stinks,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: but Toronto's bullpen has been no better. Really, I'm looking
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: at the offense here, my mistake. Toronto should have the
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: better offense, but they haven't been that good so far
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: this year. There's still been better than Minnesota's. I think,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: where the hell is Minnesota? Oh maybe I'm wrong. No,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is in the middle of the pack here offensively, dude,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what's going on this season so far.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: You would think that Toronto would turn it around and
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: be the better offense here. I don't buy that Minnesota
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: is gonna continue to be the better offense here. I
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: do buy that both bullpens are not that good. Minnesota's
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: is worse than Toronto so far this year, although ERA
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't tell you the whole story there. But yeah, they're
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: bullpens that you typically want to fade. Simeon Woods Richardson
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Minnesota. He's been pretty good this season
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: so far. He just doesn't strike out a lot of guys.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: He only has six strikeouts in eleven and two thirds,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: but the rest of his numbers are fine. He hasn't
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: allowed that many runs. He's faced Kansas City and Tampa
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Bay though, and it's not like those are elite offenses.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: He is going up against Toronto, now, who I do
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: think their bats are gonna wake up at some point
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: and Woods Richard's and has not been good against Toronto
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: and thirty four at bats, three eighty two, batting average allowed,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: twelve forty oh ps. Those numbers are bad. Four to
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk ratio. That's not good either, although
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: again it's not that many walks. He just doesn't strike
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: out anybody. Davis Schneider is four for five with three
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: on runs off him. So if you want to be
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: looking for player props there, that is an interesting one.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe I know it's a small sample, but he's wrecked
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Woods richardson, so that's interesting. And David Schneider, you know,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: looks pretty badass. So there is that which if you
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: want me to bring it up, if you don't know
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: what he looks like, he's the guy that everybody tries
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: to mimic in Toronto's lineup. But hang on, I have
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: to dude, I hate ESPN doing this. They make you
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: switch back there. He is the you go the glasses
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: in the stash anyway, he looks like he should be
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: a pitcher though, and then oh boy, good old the
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Patrick KORbin is making you Blue Jay's debut here. I
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: didn't know where he was. He hasn't pitched yet this season.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: We like to make fun of Patrick KORbin on The
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: show Man. I mean his career. Dude, I couldn't believe
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: he was still in the league in twenty twenty two,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, Like he was so
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: bad in some of those years with Washington, It's like
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: what are we doing here? Like, how was this guy
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: still in the league. Then he went to Texas and
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: he pitched well for like the first half of the
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: season last year, maybe even more than that. But he
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: did pretty much regress in the last couple of months
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: of the season last year and started pitching pretty poorly again.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: But Texas, their pitching coaches are good. Man, give him credit,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: But do I actually think Patrick Corbin is like some
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: resurgent pitcher, like at the age of thirty six, Like,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: is he all of a sudden way better. I don't
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: think so. I still think he stinks he's stunk in
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: the last couple of months last year. I don't know that.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, it looks like Toronto does not of great
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: you know, great pitching coaching. Texas does. So I'm not
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: sold on Corbin, and I think it's a disadvantage that
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: it's his first start of the season. Yes, he'll want
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: to prove himself with his new team, prove that he's
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: worth the contract and whatever, but he's going up against
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: a picture that's already pitched this year, So I think
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: that's a disadvantage. I think it is an advantage to
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: the pitcher that's already made multiple starts this year, Woods Richardson,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: because you get the nerves out of the way you're
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: used to pitching again. Minnesota, though not the most intimidating lineup. Corbin,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: though his numbers are not that good against them. In
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: fifty seven at bats, fifteen to nine strike out walk ratio,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: that's not good. Bell and Buckston have combined for five
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: home runs off him two sixty three average allowed. It
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: is not horrible, but nine to three ohps is very
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: high a lot of it because of those home runs
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: and the walks. Corbin is just not good man. Yeah,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know the situation. I don't love Minnesota
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: because it looks like kind of a letdown here. The
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on Toronto, surpri They're up to
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty seven for minus one twenty seven. I
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: kind of think the public is going to be siding
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: with Toronto still, just based off of their images of
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: these two teams. Seventy four percent of tickets eighty eight
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: percent of the money on Toronto. Though the money is
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: indicating on Toronto. I really don't like it. Though. I
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: would lean to Minnesota, although I might limit it to
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: first five innings, just because I really hate Minnesota's bullpen,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: but Toronto's is not much better. But then again, Minnesota
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, you know, so I think Minnesota has an
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: advantage in the pitching matchup, but they do have disadvantages elsewhere.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: So you know, maybe I wouldn't disagree with Toronto in
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the full game. But that's the problem, right, because I
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: think Minnesota actually does have a little bit of a
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge there. You know, I don't like Corman,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: although I guess if you think about it over mix.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: What am I thinking over makes sense in this game,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: but the money's coming in on the under. The total
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: is at nine. Basically, if you want to go over,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: you probably I want to find that nine, even if
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: you pay minus one twenty on it. Nine is a
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: key number because it breaks a four to four tie.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets ninety nine percent of the casual
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: on the under, though the money indicating on the under.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: But I mean, you have two pitchers that are pretty
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: questionable here. Man, The bullpens haven't been good. I don't
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: really see an argument for an under here other than
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: you know, Toronto having a day off. I guess could
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: cool the Bats, but I think it over makes sense
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: in that game. The A's are at the Mets. Man,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: we have a lot of games to talk about. The
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: A's are staying in New York, but they beat the
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Yankees yesterday. I actually won the series against the Yankees.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I do not know how, because the A's bullpen is bad,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and I don't know how they were able to do
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: that well in that series against a good Yankee lineup.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Makes no sense to me. But the A's could be
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot. Although they are staying in New York,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: which isn't terrible. Both teams played yesterday. The Mets are
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: also staying at home. They played yesterday as well. They
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: lost pretty badly the last two games to Arizona, so
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: they could be in a bounce back here. I think
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: the A's clearly have the worst of the two bullpens.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Here A's only use two relief pitchers yesterday Mets use three.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: But I still think the Mets have a bullpen edge. Mets.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: They're in the They're eleventh and bullpen whip right now.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: The A's are in the bottom four. Not really surprising there. Offensively,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: the Mets have been better as well. They're twelfth offensively
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: right now based on ops, A's are twenty fourth, although
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I think the A's are a bit better than that.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: They do have young talent in that lineup. J T.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Gin is listed as a starter for the A's. He's
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: kind of an opener at this point. Man. He hasn't
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: gone more than three or two thirds in any of
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: his outings, and in fact, his last two outings were
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: over the course of two days or actually three day's.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: He pitched twice against Houston. Now it looks like They
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: do have him on a starter's rest now though, so
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: they might actually have him go more than that in
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: this game. And he has been a starter before, so
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: it's kind of hard to figure out how long is
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: he gonna be in this game. We don't really know
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: his numbers are. You know, they're not great. I think
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: he's a serviceable pitcher, but you know, he's not a
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: big time strikeout guy. He's been fine, I guess, so
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: one point one for whip is not really that bad
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: going up against the Mets, though, pretty good offense. Nineteen
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: at bats is what he has against him. It's not
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: a big sample size. They don't have any extra base
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: hits off him though. Three to two strike out walk
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: ratio is pretty much nothing but two sixty three batting
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: average allowed, five ninety six ohps. So his numbers are
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: not that bad against the Mets. He's going up against
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Clay Holmes, who well, you know, I'm not a fan of.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: But his numbers are pretty good so far this year
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: except strike out walk ratio is not good. Nine to five.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: That's you know, that's his job. He's working nine to five. No,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: he's not. Because he's a major league pitcher. Bad strike
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: out walk Ratio though, and he's faced Saint Louis and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: San Francisco so far pretty weak offenses, and San Francisco
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: in a pitcher friendly park. I'm not sold on Homes.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not really a fan of him. I don't think
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: he's that good. I don't think he's terrible either, but
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: I think he's overrated, I should say, going up against
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: the A's here, his numbers are not that good against him.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: It's a small thirteen at bats sample size four to two,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: strike out walk Razio three to zero, way to average,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: allowed seven to eight ops, so he's allowed no extra
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: base hits to them, but he's allowed a lot of
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: contact to them. I don't know. This is a game
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with, But the money
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: looks like it's sort of supporting Oakland here or sorry,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: the A's my mistake, Sacramento. The homeless A's homes are
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: excuse me. The Mets down for minus one fiftee forty
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: eight here, eighty eight percent of the tickets, eighty four
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. Mets are definitely a
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: public side here, And you know, I don't even really disagree.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: I think if I was gonna go the A's. I
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: would go first five though the A's have a clear
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: advantage in the bullpen, so I think you could argue
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: that ginn could battle homes in this game. So if
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: you want the A's, I would probably go first five
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: inning in that one. Don't want to play the game, though, Zach,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out the Royals? Are they
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: up next? Is that why you said that? No, they're
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: not there. Yeah, there are a few games, a few
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: games to go before I talk about that. Yankees are
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: playing Tampa Bay. Yankees played yesterday, Tampa did not. Yankees
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: are having to travel as well, so maybe a little
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: bit of a disadvantage here with the Yankees having to
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: travel from New York to Tampa on no rest here.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Yankees have had a better bullpend than last year so far,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: though Yankees only just one relief pitcher. Yes said it
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: was Blackburn, who's not that good. He's kind of an
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: innings eater. Yankees have been okay in the bullpen though
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: hitting surprisingly, the Yankees have been a good offense. But
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: again I think they they obviously they are. I mean again,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: this is a small sample size, so you don't want
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: to read too much into it. It's kind of dangerous
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: to do that. But they're not the twenty second best
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: offense legitimately going up against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: hit well other eighth right now in ops, but I
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: still think the Yankees are probably the better offense here.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Yankees are ninth and bullpen whips so far. Their bullpen
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: has been good. Tampa Bays has not been that good
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: and they have one of the worst bullpen eras so far.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: You would think that they would turn it around because
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: last year the bullpen was pretty good. I don't know, man,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: but They're bullpen has been struggling, so that kind of
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: evens out the fact that the Yankees have a bullpen
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: rest disadvantage. But the Yankees do have the rest disadvantage here.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup is interesting. Luis Heel is making his
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: season debut. He's been hurt or something. He hasn't pitched
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: yet obviously, He's you know, made some minor league appearances
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: whatever Heel, I mean, you kind of know what you're
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of him at this point. He throws
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: really hard. He can be good at times. He has
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: a really high strikeout rate usually a little last year
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: that wasn't the case when he got hurt. But his
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: problem is he's wild. He gets he has way too
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: many walks last year that was really like, his amount
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: of walks last year was appalling thirty three and fifty
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: seven innings, So he does not seem to have that
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: under control. He could be a good pitcher if he
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: stopped walking people, but that hasn't been that hasn't been
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: the case. He hasn't been able to do that. He's
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: still somewhat young going up against Tampa Bay here. He's
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: been pretty good against them. It's only eighteen at bats though,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: one to eleven batting average, five sixteen oh ps, four
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: to three strikeout walk ratio is not good though, so
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: again he's walked too many guys, although Tima Bay hasn't
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: really been able to hit him too well. But he
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: might be in a little bit of a disadvantage because
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: this is his first start of the season, where you know,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: it could be shaky when you're coming back from injury.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Though then again, sometimes the picture is good. Like I
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: think a veteran, I don't know if I consider him
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: to be a total veteran here or anything, but veteran
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: pitchers usually actually will give you a good start when
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: they come back from injury, as long as they're not
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: like way too old or anything, because they want to
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: get back out there and they're ready and they've been
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: through it before. I don't know if that's gonna be
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: the case with Heel, but I think there is kind
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: of a disadvantage in that he hasn't pitched yet this year.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Stephen Motts is pitching for Tampa Bay and he is
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: a starter again, like full fledged starter again, like he
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: was early in his career. He was a relief pitcher
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: for the most part of the last couple of years.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay has made him a starter and he's actually
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: been good. He has a ten to three strike out
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He's allowed a few too many runs, I guess,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: but he held Minnesota to wanner and run in the
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: last outing. His strikeout walk numbers, like I said, have
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: been fine so far. His outing against Minnesota was really good.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Eight strikeouts, two walks, one run away, two hits in
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: six innings. So good form from him at least if
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: that last start is any indication. But of course he's
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: got to face the Yankees now, and they're a really
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: good hitting lineup. He's been okay ish against them in
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: ninety at bats. Eighteen to seven strike a walk ratio
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: is not very good. Two fifty six average is fine,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: but he's allowed too much power hitting to them and
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: too many walks eight twenty batting or eight twenty op
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: batting hours that would be insane. Eight twenty ops allowed
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: to them. So I don't know if I fully trust
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Motts here. I know the money is actually coming in
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: on the Yankees here. Yankees are gonna be a public
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: side too, though obviously the public all they do is
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: play the Yankees. They're gonna expect them to bounce back here.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Yankees are up to minus one thirty five, minus one fifteen,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: So I think there is some actual money coming in
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: on the Yankees, but you gotta be careful, Like I
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: mentioned that yesterday, all the money looked like it was
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: coming in on Cincinnati when I did the show yesterday,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: and then it started coming back on Miami at the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: better price. You know, So the market have fake outs
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: in it, man, where the initial move could actually be
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: a fake move, and then the real money comes in
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: on the other side. And with baseball, I don't have
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: a good gauge on it. Man, I admit it, Like,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know where the fake moves are. That's why
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I like, I just rely on my the way that
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: I handicap and hope that it works out, which it's
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: been fine for me. Major League Baseball is in one
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: of my better sports. So seventy six percent tickets eighty
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the Yankees, So it
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: does look like the real money is coming in on
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: the Yankees for now. Money also coming in the under
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: in that game, which has dropped a little bit to
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the under. That looks
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: like a legitimate move to me as well, you know,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if I would disagree with it. All.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: The raised bullpen has been really bad, so I don't
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: know if i'd want to go with an under with
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: that bullpen there. If you want to go Yankees, you
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: gotta go full game on this because you want to
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: take advantage of the bad Tampa bullpen there. Yeah, it's
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously it's a stay away from me, though
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: I think maybe you could are. There are some advantages
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay with the starting pitching matchup there. Maybe
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: not enough though, So yeah, that's a stay away from me.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a good gauge on the total
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: there Cleveland and Atlanta. I don't believe either of these
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: teams played yesterday. Let me see. No, No, they did not.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: So we have two rested bullpens. The bullpens. These two
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: bullpens have been good so far this year. They're both
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: in like the top six. Atlanta's bullpen has been excellent
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: so far this year and Cleveland's not much worse. Cleveland
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: is starting a road trip off of beating the Royals,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: so you know they're starting a road trip with momentum.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna be overconfident after beating
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: the Royals. I mean maybe, But the Braves have played
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: well so far this year too. Braves are turning on
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: from a road trip though they're out in Arizona and Anaheim.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: So that's not a good spot when you're turning home
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: from a cross country road trip. Man, I don't like that.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: And again you can get distracted having to get back
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: to home life whatever. So I don't love the spot
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: for Atlanta here, so that would have me looking towards
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Cleveland for that reason. Atlanta does have a slight bullpen
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: edge but it's slight as far as what the offense
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: have done so far. Atlanta has actually hit well this
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: year too. There's sixth in offense and Cleveland is sixteenth,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: which is better than you would think, but not terrific.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: And like I said, Atlanta's number one in bullpen whip.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is actually eighth but still good. So you know,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: it looks like Atlanta has a slight bullpen edge. It
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: looks like they do have an offensive edge. Starting pitching
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: actually hard to gauge the starting pitching slate. Chacone is
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: pitching for Cleveland. Five point two to three era doesn't
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: look good, but his one point six whip is actually
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He's coming off a six inning, one hit
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: shutout against the Cubs and somehow they lost that game,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: so not his fault. His offense did nothing. He had
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts one walk in that game. Very good outing
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: from him, so you might want to give him a
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: pass for that first bat. Outing against Seattle. A lot
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: of times that first out it could just be shaky
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: because you're trying to get used to pitching again. He
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: pitched really well against the Cubs though, so his form
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: does look pretty good. Right now, who are we facing here.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: I forget Atlanta. Uh you know, Chaconi has been in
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: the National League before thirty seven at bats against Atlanta's
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: career eight to two strike a walk ratio is pretty good.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: Two forty three batting average is pretty low as well.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Seven to forty two ops is a little bit high though.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Uh so it's not all good for him in here,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: but it's not horrible either, mediocre numbers. I would say
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: he's going up against Bryce Elder, who is not pitching
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: like an Elder right now. Elder's been good this year, man.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: He's allowed no runs this season, thirteen strikeouts, two walks,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: fewer than one hit per inning against the A's, although
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: they haven't been hitting well this year, and then at
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: Arizona they haven't been hitting well either, but that is
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: a hit or friendly ballpark. I mean Elder, dude, he's
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: the guy that I like to make fun of him. Man,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: But he's been all over the place in his career,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: Like I think he must have had he must have
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: been injured in that surgery or something, because he was
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: really good early in his career, although his whip was
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: actually a bit too high, but he was pretty good,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: you know, just he always he kind of walked too
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: many guys whatever, and wasn't really that much of a
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: strikeout guy really. But then after I think an injury
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: or something, he just wasn't any good anymore. In the
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: last couple of years, started pitching pretty well at the
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: end of the year last year. Maybe he's doing something right, man,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Maybe he's changed something, because he's looked good since late
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: last year. He's in good form right now. You can't
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: argue with that. But is he gonna start sucking again?
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: I mean he might because I'm still you know, I'm
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: still leery that Elder is really that good at this point.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: You know, against Cleveland, his numbers are not that good
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: and twenty three at bats three to four, strike a
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: walk right here, that's not good. Three or four batting
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: average seven ninety nine ops. None of those numbers are good.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: I could say this game, man, I considered Cleveland. In
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: this game, Atlanta's at minus one thirty one here seventy
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: nine percent tickets, seventy three percent of the cash on them,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: So the money is indicating against Atlanta. They're a public
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: side with less of the money on them. Now, I
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: do think they have a bullpen edge and a hitting
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: edge here. The spot is really bad for Atlanta though,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: in the return home spot, so I do Actually, I'll
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: agree with Cleveland. I'll lean to Cleveland in this game
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to do it Cleveland money line, maybe
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: first five. First five might be where Cleveland might have
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: the better shot, because you know, Atlanta might start slow
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: due to the return home distractions and stuff. In Cleveland,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: that might be where they have most of the edge
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: because I think Chaconi is fairly good and he does
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: have the better matchup numbers here. Elder. The jury is
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: still completely out on Elder, dude, Like we still just
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: don't know. Although I don't really want to do it,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: just because he is in good form right now, I
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: would be concerned about it. But yeah, I mean a
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: lot of things do line up for me for Cleveland,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: mostly the situation. Though I think the situation is in
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: favor of Cleveland in that one all right, and their
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: bullpen can still duel Atlanta though, so if you wanted
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: to go full game, I wouldn't really disagree with that either.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at Baltimore. San Francisco is traveling across country,
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: but they're starting a road trip, so sometimes you will
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: be focused to start the road trip. But they're coming
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: off beating Philadelphia, man, so they might be in a
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: letdown spot if they're two straight shutouts over the Phillies.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: Those are good wins, man, and have it across the country.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe not the greatest spot for them. Baltimore is returning
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip, but it was only to
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Chicago, which is not that bad. They swept
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, so I don't think they're gonna be
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: overconfident by sweeping the White Sox. What are we looking
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: at here? Bullpens? Neither of these teams played yesterday, by
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: the way, so rested bullpens here. Baltimore has been middle
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: of the pack bullpen wise, so far we're looking at
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: who we're looking at. San Francisco they've been I think
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: middle of the pack as well, though you'd expect their
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: bullpen to be good. They're kind of middle of the
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: pack right now too, though Baltimore actually slightly better, although
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna completely wind up that way.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's tenth. Offensively, they're definitely the better offense. The Giants
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: are pretty weak their bottom four offensively, so you do
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: have to give the hitting to Baltimore. Here. This is
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: on Apple TV, by the way, which is gonna overlap
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: with the Anaheim and Cincinnati game. Landon Route is pitching
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: for San Francisco. I think he's all right. His whip
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: has been pretty good this year so far, one point
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: one to three, pretty good numbers so far, fourteen to
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk ratio. Didn't do as well against
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the Mets, though he did well in a pitcher friend
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the environment against the San Diego lineup that's really been
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: bad this year, and then against the Mets, he struggled.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: They were able to hit him and get him for
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: seven hits, five on runs. But he did have seven
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: strikeouts in one walk in that outing, so his command
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: was there interesting and he induced a lot of ground
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: balls too, because I think he has like a kind
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: of this like twelve to six curve ball that just
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: drops a ton. I think is what he does, which
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: does induce a lot of ground balls overall. I mean,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: he's his whip has been too high throughout his career,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: so I do worry about that. Like, I think he's
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: decent and you know, maybe room for improvement because he's
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: only twenty seven. Although you know he's not the youngest guy,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: but you know, I worry about like just he's walked
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: too many guys throughout his career, but this this season
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: that's been less of an issue. But in a small
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: sample size. Now he is going up against who are
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: you talking about here? Baltimore? Yeah, all Orange today man
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: in Giants and Baltimore here in this series. I mean,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Raup has been pretty good against them. Only six at
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: bats though, so they're very unfamiliar with them. They only
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: have one hit against him, two strikeouts, no walks, not
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: a whole lot else to say about that, but Roup
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: is pretty unfamiliar to them, so that could be an
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: extra advantage to him. The unfamiliarity can be an edge
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: to the pitcher. Shane boz is pitching for the Orioles here.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: They got him from Campa Bay. He hasn't been that great.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Usually he's a good strikeout pitcher at the very least,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: but his strikeout rates seems a little bit down this year,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: and he's faced Minnesota and Pittsburgh and those are not
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: offenses that really completely light you up. So there were
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: some concerns here. Nine to three strike up walk ratio
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: is not great mediocre from Boz here, which I think
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: is really what he is. I think he's kind of
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: a mediocre pitcher. I mean, he does show signs of
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: having like the ability to just blow hitters away too, though,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: and he's facing a bad giant offense here. They only
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: have nineteen of bats off them. They only have two
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: hits off and one is a home run from Arayas.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: But other than that, he's done pretty well against some
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: one oh five batting average allowed four ninety ops eight
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio is not that great,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: but to both these pictures are pretty unfamiliar to the
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: opposing bats. Here. Baltimore is down for minus one twenty
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: five to minus one nineteen on the money line, sixty
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets seventy two percent of the
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: cash on Baltimore, so the money is slightly indicating on
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the Baltimore side. But I think my preference in this
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: game would actually be to go under the total. You
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: got two offenses that haven't really been lighting it up,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: especially San Francisco's. I think San Francisco's bullpen will improve,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: although I do worry about Baltimore's a bit. I think
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: both starters with the unfamiliarity and whatever could actually be
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: undervalued in this game. Here the total sitting in no
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: man's land right now. You missed out on the nine
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: though it looks like it wasn't nine at one point.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: It's down to eight and a half. But my preference
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: in that game would be the under though, And you know,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: if you if really, if you're worried about the bullpens,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: you could go first five under as well. I guess, uh,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean the bullpen though they're rested at least, remember,
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: so a lot of you know, when we have these crossovers.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: I don't have any Unders today, but a lot of
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: times I will be playing Unders when you have new
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: series starting like this, when you have the bullpens rested,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, it's a better situation for
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: the Unders because the bats also can cool off when
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: when they're not hitting for a day and the bullpens
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: get rested. You know. So that's an advantage to the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: bullpens and to the pitching in general. All right, White
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Sox at Royals. Finally your Royals here. White Sox just
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: beat Kansas City yesterday. Oh yeah, they already started the series.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: That's right. So the White Sox won last night. I'm
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: shocked by that. Like, yeah, I liked the Royals in
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: the game yesterday. I don't know what's going on with them. Man,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: I thought their bats would do well. I don't. I dude,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I can't explain it. I really can't. I thought the
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: White Sox pitching they were thrown out there yesterday was
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: god awful and that wasn't the case somehow. I don't
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: know how White Sox use three relief pitchers in that game.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: The Royals used two. The White Sox bullpen has not
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: been good, though that remains the case. The Royals haven't either,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: but there's still better than the White Sox bullpen. Where
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: are we at here? Actually the rules have been bad?
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? The rules have been worse than
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, But I still don't think their bullpen
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: is actually as bad as the White Sox. But yes,
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: so far, we do have two bad bullpens so far
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: this season. Offensively, the Royals I think have actually been okay.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: They're middle of the pack so far. Offensively, the White
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Sox are bad. White Sox are bottom two second worst
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: offense so far this year based on ops. Is what
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: I'm using for that. Davis Martin is pitching for the
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: White Sox here. He's been pretty good so far this year.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: One point one eight whip that is good, twelve to
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: four strike a walker issue is not bad. I expect
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: maybe some regression out of him, though, but pretty impressive
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: that he shut out Toronto for six innings in his
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: last outing. You know, I mean, Martin, He's not awful.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I'll say that his whip is too high over the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: course of his career though, so you know, there there
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: are still concerns with him. I mean, we're looking at
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: a small sample size here, and he's not that young
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: at this point. He's done decent against the Royals and
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: fifty eight at bats twelve to three strike out walk
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: ratio two forty one ops. But he's allowed three home
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: runs to them. Two from the Italian Vinnie Pascuatino has
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: two home runs off him, seven to ten ops overall
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: against him. Still that's not really that bad though, So
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Martin actually has a decent matchup here. Chris Boo Bitch
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Kansas City. Booby my favorite thing. I
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: think he over performed last year, man, I really do.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: He had some really good numbers last year, and the
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics guys really liked him. Then it seemed like,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: I think after he got nominated to the All Star
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: team or whatever, he really dropped off after that. He's
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: been mediocre to start this season. He's been pretty unhittable.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: He's only a lowed six hits and eleven innings, but
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: twelve to six strike out walk race is not gonna
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: cut it. Man. It's a good strikeout rate, but he's
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: been wild. That's definitely too many walks, three walks in
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: each outing, a grant in. One of his outings is
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee and they hit well. But Bubitch has not
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: been that good so far. His numbers against the White
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Sox are all right. I mean they are a pretty
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: weak offense, as I already told you, as we all know,
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: twenty two at bats against them, six to two strikeout
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: walk right yo, two to seventy three average six fifty
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: two ops. Yeah, I mean, there's nothing that I really
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: want to do with this game. Man. The money's coming
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: on in the under and I could see the argument
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: for that. I mean, we have two offenses that don't
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: seem to be doing that much right now. The starting
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: pitching seems like they do actually have decent matchup numbers here.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: I would not want to deal with the bullpens, though.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: The bullpens have been trashed, So if you want to
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: go under, I'd probably go first five under on the
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: full game. It looks like you might be able to
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: find a nine, though, so sometimes I will try to
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: weigh those options and be like, eh, well, if you're
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: getting that key number, maybe you do go on during
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: the full game at nine. I think if you're going
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: first five, you'll probably find a four and a half
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: though maybe yeah, probably four and a half would be
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: out there. We was sixty percent of tickets, ninety percent
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under under verst five does
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: make sense to me, And it still seems like Kansas
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: City's stadium is not becoming like an overconducive stadium, you
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. Like we talked about how they
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: move their wall in, but it doesn't seem like it's
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: that it's having that much of an impact. Kansas City's
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: up to a minus one seventy two favorite, eighty seven
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on them.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know about that, man. I think they're probably
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: too heavy of a favorite here man, even though they should.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: You could argue they should bounce back after the loss yesterday,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: but I think Boo Bitch is getting too much respect
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: in the market here. I would not lay that price
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: with Kansas City. I think the game is a little
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: bit closer than that, so probably I would have a
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: slightly towards the White Sox on the run line or
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: something like that, like a split run line money line
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: bet maybe. Uh, But I think under in the first
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: five is preferable in that one. Washington at Milwaukee, Washington stinks,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee does not stink. Washington did just lose two out
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: of three to Saint Louis. They're starting a road trip though,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: so that is a positive when you're starting a road trip.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Washington was off yesterday, so is Milwaukee, so we have
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: rested bullpens in this one. Milwaukee is definitely the better
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen though, and we look at the hitting. Milwaukee should
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: have the better hitting as well. Yeah, they're fifth right now,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: the Washington is somehow third, but I just don't buy it, man,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: I don't. Washington has hit well so far this year,
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: but I still think Milwaukee does indeed have the better
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: offense here. Milwaukee has the better bullpen. They're following off
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit, though, they're middle of the pack bullpen wise.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: Their era is good though, and Washington they're a train
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: wreck of a bullpen. They're one of the worst couple
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: of bullpens in baseball. I don't see that changing. I
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: think that is legitimately true. Jake Irvin is pitching for Washington.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: He's you know, I mean, he's shown signs of being alright.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: I think he's not as bad as what he's looked
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: like so far this season isra looks terrible at eight.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: His whip is definitely bad at one point five to six.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: He's been way too hittable eleven hits at nine innings,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: but his strikeout walk ratio is not that bad. High
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate eleven strikeouts, three walks, and he faced the
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Cubs and the Dodgers man, So those are offenses that
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: could definitely light you up, especially obviously the Dodgers, but
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: the Brewers are a good offense as well. So he's
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: not getting any reprieve here. But I do think irv
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: it is at least better than what his numbers look
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: like here. I don't think he's good though. Up against Milwaukee,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: he does get pretty much destroyed in seventy four at bats,
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: eleven eleven strikeout walk ratio, eleven eleven make a wish baby,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: three point fifty one, batting average allowed, one fifty seven
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: oh ps. None of those numbers are good, obviously, including
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: that horrible eleven eleven strike out walk ratio. Chad Pactrick
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Milwaukee. He looks good so far. He
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: has an ERRA below one, but his whip is one
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: point thirty nine, so his ERA should be higher than
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: it is. That whip is not that good at all.
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: A seven to four strike up walker race shio. That's
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: not gonna cut it, man, But it's because he walked
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: three guys against Kansas City. Now again, on the plus side,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: he's only allowed one run so far this year. He's
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: faced the White Sox Kansas City, and those offenses are
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: not as good as Washington's is right now, So he
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: actually is stepping up in class to vase Washington. But
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: he might have an advantage here because, first of all,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think Washington's really this good on offense. Secondly,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Patrick has never been seen before by them, so I
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: think he does have an extra advantage here where the
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Nationals' bats have never faced him before, So I do
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: kind of lean to Milwaukee here, but they're all the
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: way up for minus what sixty eight to minus one
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: ninety five eighty three percent. Took his ninety one percent
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I think the money coming
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: in is legitimate. On Milwaukee. I think they're definitely the
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: better team here, but you're gonna have to lay like
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: a minus one and a half run line. I don't
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: think I would do that, but you know, I mean
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: you want to take advantage of you know, Patrick over Irvin. Like,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: I just think Milwaukee does have advantages in a lot
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: of ways here, and the bullpen is way better too,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: So you know, I think I still probably would prefer
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: laying the one and a half run line with Milwaukee
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: and that one. Man, I know you're not You're not
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: supposed to do it, but certain situations. We've done it
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: once this year and we won with the Cobs. Maybe
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: that's the spot where it makes sense to do it. Man.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean you could try to do something else,
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: like you could go if you want to take Patrick
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: out of the equation, you know, because maybe he is
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit unpredictable. Milwaukee going over their team total
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me as well. The overall game totals
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: at eight, which is not that high, but Milwaukee should
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: be able to hit off of Irvin, who they historically
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: do well against, and then Washington's bad bullpen, So that
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: is an approach Milwaukee over their team total. Boston at
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis my Red Sox starting a road trip head yesterday.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: Off they got some momentum here, maybe they're gonna show
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: up with some momentum. I really don't think the Red
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Sox are as bad as their record looks. Man Like,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: they have talent on the seam. It's just that I
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: think they got a fire alex Corps. I think the
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: managing is terrible. They're better than Saint Louis, though, you know,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: it's just how it is. The Saint Louis where are
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: they at offensively? Here? On me saying I don't even
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: know where they are? Hold on what They're actually eleventh
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: offensively and the Red Sox are seventeenth. But I don't
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: really buy that. I think the Red Sox are probably
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: the better offense here. Again, we're trying to gauge it
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: based off the small sample size. Red Sox have been
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: number thirteen in bullpen whips so far. Cardinals pretty bad
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: bullpen at twenty fifth, so I do think the Red
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Sox do definitely have the better bullpen here. Neither team
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, so the bullpen's are. Saint Louis Is returning
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. They went to Detroit and Washington.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Not the longest road trip, but still a return home spot.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: I think Saint Louis is nowhere near as good as
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: what their record looks. So you got the Red Sox
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: at four and eight and Saint Louis at seven to five,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Yet the Red Sox are road favorite here, So the
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: odds bakers are telling you the Red Sox are the
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: better team and or have the better pitching matchup, though
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I think it's both in this case. So odds Baker's
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: telling you to not buy these early season records, so
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: we got to take that into account. It is a
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: pretty bad spot for Saint Louis returning home from the road,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: but maybe they will get up for a game against
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Red Sox have got Connolly or early pitching,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: young talented pitcher man. He's got a good pitch mix
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: he doesn't throw that hard, but good mix of pitches
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: from him. Man. The concerns so far for him has
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: been walks. He hasn't allowed that many runs, but ten
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: to six strike at walk ratio. He's got to get
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: that under control. Man. He's facing a Saint Louis lineup
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: that I really don't think is that good, So hopefully
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: get that under control a little bit. Walk too many
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: guys against San Diego. They took the loss in that game, unfortunately.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: But his era is good. His whip is indicative that
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: his era should be higher, so that kind of worries me.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: But maybe he'll do well here because Saint Louis has
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: never seen him before, so he does have an edge
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: there where he's, you know, a talented young pitcher. He's
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: a lefty too, so sometimes hitting when hitters are unfamiliar
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: with the pitcher. It actually is a little bit harder
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: to figure out left handed pitchers sometimes because they have
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: weirder motions that they're they're of the devil Man, they're lefties,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: you know, like it is harder to pick up their
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: arm angles a lot of the time. So I think
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: he might have some advantages in this game. He's going
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: up against good old Dustin May, who the Red Sox
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: moronically traded James Tibbs for, and Tibbs is ripping the
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: cover off the ball. As if the Dodgers needed another
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: hitter like that. Tibbs the third is lighting it up
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: in Triple A right now. The Red Sox had May
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: for like two months and he was an absolute dumpster fire.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: Dustin May sucks. He sucks again right now. He's been
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: absolutely atrocious since his injury. Yeah, he was good earlier
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: in his career, but then he had an injury, he
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: had Tommy John or whatever. You could see exactly when
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: that happened, because he missed the twenty twenty four season,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: and since then he's been an absolute disaster and shown
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: no signs of fixing any of it. This season, he's
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: been got awful sixteen e RA, a whip of like
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: three basically seven to three strikeout walk ratio. I mean,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: that's still too many walks. He's given up seventeen hits
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: in thirteen on runs and seven and a third, which
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: is really bad against Tampa and Detroit and those offenses.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Tampa's been hitting a little bit, Detroit really hasn't a
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: lot of bad stuff from May here. However, maybe he's
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be you know, motivated here because the Red Sox
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: got rid of him, so he might be motivated to
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: pitch against them. And he has good numbers against them
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: twenty nine at bats, seven strikeouts, no. One seventy two
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: average of four to fourteen ohbs. So the Red Sox
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: have not been able to hit May. Now the money
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the Red Sox. I don't disagree
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: with the Red Sox here. They're up for minus one
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: thirty minus one forty two. I think, looking at current
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: form and the fact that you do still have the
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity edge with Early, I do think he's the better pitcher,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: like the Red Sox. Better get this win. But now
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: the money is fading the Red Sox here. So again,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: don't don't listen to me when I'm talking about the
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: money percentages here, man, because they're all they're all moving,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: they're all going all over the place here. Man. The
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: money is still coming in on Detroit though, So that's good, Uh,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: because that was one play. I know I have another
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: play in here somewhere I haven't talked about yet. Uh.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Sixty five percent tickets sixty four percent of the cash
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: on the red sox. I think my preferred approach here
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: is under though I think that's what I would do. Uh,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: the total is really low though it's seven and a
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: half juice to the under. I would try to get
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: that seven and a half because seven is that number.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: The hook is valuable eighty three percent of tickets eighty
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on the under. Money is
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: saying Saint Louis, which you know, I don't really agree
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: with Saint Louis here. Boston I think has the better
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: situation here, and I still probably prefer Early over May
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Early May. Baby, it is early, it's in early May.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: We're in April here. But yeah, I think possibly both
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: pitchers have an advantage here, man, and an under might
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: be worth a look there. But again, May is a
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: train wreck, dude, So like, I don't know, Man, I
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: think May is very unpredictable in this game. I think
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: he could be anywhere from really good to just an
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: absolute disaster in this game, whereas I think Early is
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more predictable one that he's probably
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: gonna at least be okay in this game, you know
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Uh, So that's what we got going
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: on in that one. It's not a game I want.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: The next game up, believe it or not, is the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: one that I want. Colorado and San Diego for dirty
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: sock here. San Diego won last night seven to three,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: but that was actually an extra inning game. Colorado was
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: hanging around in that game. But Colorado's bullpen still not good.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: They use most of their relievers yesterday, including former Red
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: Sox Brendan Bernardino. Kind of mad the Red Sox got
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: rid of him. I kind of like him, but whatever.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: Rockies used a lot of their relief pitchers yes today.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: San Diego used a lot of theirs as well. Both
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: bullpen's use like five or six guys, but San Diego
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpens, so they probably do get the
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: advantage in the bullpen. They're fifth, sixth excusing a bullpen
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: whip so far this year. The Rockies are where are
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: they at? They're not as bad as Actually the Rockies
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: are fifth. What the fuck is that? There's no way
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: the Rockies bullpen is that good, so I would give
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the Padres the bullpen edge in that game. Although the
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: Rockies have been better than you would think, Rockies offense
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: has been better than you would think as well. They're
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: kind of middle of the pack somewhere. I think they've
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: actually been better than San Diego Rockies ninth in ops.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: San Diego has been improving a little bit, but still
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: twenty sixth. I think you do have to kind of
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: give the Rockies an offensive edgend this one. But we're
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: gonna look at the starting pitching matchup here, man, and
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a best bet. Even though you
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: could make the argument that you could make an argument
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: here that the Padres because the better team and they
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: got to scare last night, they'll play better here, like
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: that's a situational argument that I make sometimes, and that
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: the Rockies will be in like let down mode after
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: how they lost yesterday. But I still think you're gonna
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: get an eutfort out of the Rockies against San Diego.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Rockies are a little bit undervalued here because
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: they've been so bad the last couple of years, and
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: we're looking at the starting pitch up, Yeah, starting pitching
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: match up here. You know where we're going with this, man,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go Colorado in the first five innings because
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: I still don't want to deal with their bullpen even
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: though their bullpen has actually better, I don't think it
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: is actually the better bullpen. So I'm gonna limit this
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: to the first five you can find the plus half
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: a run. I'm recommending run line here at minus one
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: oh five, And if you do that, I would actually
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: probably sprinkle a little bit on the money line as
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: well and make it like a spread bet. Basically, if
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: you want to go money line on this, you could
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: do that too. I think you're getting like plus one
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: thirty something on that, and then if that happens, if
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: it's tied, your bet will push, whereas in this case,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: if it's tied through five innings, you'll win the bet.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: In this case we'll lose them. We'll push the money
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: line part of it. But yeah, I'm making it into
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: basically a spread bet. Here. Sugano is pitching for the Rock.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: He's Tomoyuki Sagano, who had his first season in the
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: majors last year. He's an experienced pitcher, though because he
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: was a professional pitcher in Japan for a long long time.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: He was good for the early part of the season
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: last year for Baltimore, like he was mostly good when
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the opposing hitters were unfamiliar with him. But he's he's
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: been pretty good to start this season. Man, He's not
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: really a strikeout guy, but nine to three strikeout walk
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: ratio is fine. He's only a lot six hits in
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: ten and two thirds innings. That's pretty good. And he's
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: faced Toronto on the road and Philadelphia in course field,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: so you know that's not bad. Like I'm actually somewhat
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: impressed by his performances so far this season. That's really
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: not bad. Those offenses are not weak offenses, really, even
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: if Toronto has been struggling a little bit. And then
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: the other thing is what did I just say He's
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: been good at least against lineups that have never seen
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: him before. San Diego only has two hitters who have
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: ever faced him before, and they're zero for three off him,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts, no walks. But most of their lineup has
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: never seen him before. I think that is and advantage
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: to him. And he's going up against another former Red
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: Sox and Dodger, our good old pal Walker Buller, who
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: just like Dustin May, you can tell exactly when everything
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: started going wrong for him, Man, he got injured in
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. His the numbers are really good in
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: his career prior to that, except for you know, his
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: rookie season whatever, but that's kind of a wash. He
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: was good and then had an elbow injury, had Tommy
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: John surgery, came back from that, and he was an
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: absolute disaster. And he has been since then. Yeah, no, sorry,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: he hasn't approved at all. This season has been bad.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: He's only made it six and two thirds innings across
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: two starts against a weak San Francisco offense and against
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: a Red Sox offense that at least he was probably
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: motivated to pitch against. None of that went well. Seven
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: to five strike out walk ratio eight, it's allowed seven
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: and runs allowed really really bad. He's basically made like
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: one full start across two starts so far. I'm not
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: seeing it for bueller Man and against the Rockies, his
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: numbers are actually bad. It's only twenty five at bats,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: but they're at least somewhat familiar with him because he's
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: been in this division pretty recently. Eight to three strike
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio is not great. Three sixty adding average
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: allowed and one thousand and one nine ops. Those are
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: bad numbers and it's mostly Doyle and Tovar doing the
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: damage here. If you want hitter props manuh Doyle three
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: for eight with a home run and a walk off him.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: Tovar five for eight with a home run, two doubles,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: one walk, and a strikeout against him. So uh yeah,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: I know it's a limited sample size there as far
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: as a couple of guys do damage, but I prefer
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Sugano in that one man, and we'll look at the
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: starting pitching, or we'll look at the Sorry, the market
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: read here. The money is definitely agreeing with me on this.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: San Diego is a pretty heavy favorite at minus one
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: seventy five, eighty percent of the tickets on them and
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: only fifty six percent of the cash, So I think
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: we do have a pretty wide cash disparity here. And
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: I know this game isn't until tonight, but I like it.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the Rockies first five innings run line.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: All right, let's finish this off, man. We only have
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: two more baseball games over an hour of baseball, and
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: then we have a ton of NBA. I'm gonna take
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: a break and then we'll do NBA, and then I
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: gotta get to a doctor's appointment as well, So I
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: gotta make sure we get this done Houston at Seattle.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: These teams also did not play yesterday. Houston is coming
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: off an embarrassing sweep in Colorado, getting swept, so I
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna bounce back. J I mean, that was
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: just massively embarrassing. Now, Houston, they're probably not as good
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: as their hot start makes it look. And yeah, the
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: fact that they couldn't hit in the last two games
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: against Colorado is a little bit concerning because you you know,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Houston was very good offensively early in the season and
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: they should be able to hit in course field. I
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna bounce back here though they know they're
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: facing a Seattle team that I know Seattle has underperformed
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: so far. But I think it's gonna be a big
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: game for Houston, and Seattle's are turning on from a
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: road trip. They went to Anaheim in Texas Sea they
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: stayed in the division, so it's not like, I guess,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: the worst road trip return, but it is still a
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: road trip return spot where you could be a bit
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: distracted having to get back to home life. Although it
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: is still a divisional game, so divisional series, so maybe
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: Seattle won't totally overlook them, especially because Seattle has not
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: been playing that well so far this season. Seattle's had
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: a good bullpen though, they have the second best bullpen
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: so far, and Houston's is god awful, literally the worst
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: so far. So we have a huge bullpen dispity, but
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: we also have a huge hitting disparity that's completely the opposite.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: Where Houston has been the second best offense this season
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: based on these numbers, here, Seattle has been the worst.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not. Some of it has to do
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: with the fact that this is a very pitcher from
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: the ballpark here at Seattle, though, but we have a
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: huge disparity here where Seattle is good pitching, Houston's good hitting,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Seattle's bullpend really good, Houston's is god awful. But Houston
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: has a situational advantage here, I think, and they might
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: have a starting pitching edge here. With Tatsuya Emi pitching,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: we tried to go with him in his first start
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: and we did get a win, but he was very shaky.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: But he pitched a lot better in his second out
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: here man in the A's Stadium, which we know is
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: very hit or friendly. He was a little bit wild,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: but he had nine strikeouts in five to two thirds innings.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: He allowed no runs, three hits, three walks was concerning. Yeah,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: his walk number is concerning. He has a lot of
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: strikeouts thirteen but seven walks so far and eight and
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: a third innings. But I think he's an interesting pitcher man.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: He's got an interesting pitch mix. He could throw fairly hard.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: He's got a lot of moving stuff that he throws.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: And if you've never seen him pitch, he has this
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: like I think it's a slider that basically moves backwards.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know how he even doesn't. Man, he's a
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: right ended pitcher, and yeah, he throws this slider and
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: it moves backwards like it cuts in on right handed hitters.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: It's very, very bizarre, and yeah, you can go find
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: a video of that happening. So he is definitely hard
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: to hit. I would say even those numbers, you know,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: don't exactly look great so far. He's got to fix
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: his wildness. That's the one problem here. But going up
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: against Seattle, of course, they've never seen him before, so
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: I think that is an edge to Emi. These young
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: pitchers young ish he's twenty seven, when you know they
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: have good stuff, and he's proven at least because he
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: was in the Japanese leagues for a while and was
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: good enough that Houston wanted him. So guy like that
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: who hasn't been seen before by the opposing hitters, I
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: think he does have an advantage against them. Emerson Hancock
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Seattle. He's been really good so far
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: this season. Fourteen strikeouts, one walk, and he's allowed one
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: run so far across twelve to two thirds. But it
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: was against Cleveland and Anaheim. And now he's having a
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: Vasa Houston offense that has been good this year. And
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: Houston is familiar with him too. If you look at
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: his overall numbers over his career, he hasn't been great,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: you know. I Mean, he was a decently touted, like
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: young prospect, but I think he is gonna regress a
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: bit here. I'm just looking at his at his career numbers.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: It's like we kind of know what he is at
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: this when he's never really been a strikeout guy. I
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I mean, unless he completely changed something,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna buy into this small sample size too much.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: He's just really had mediocre numbers throughout his career against Houston.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: They've seen him before. Of course, because they're in this division.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: Twenty nine at bats, it's not a huge sample. Four
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: to nothing, strike a walk ratios fine, but three seventy
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: nine batting average allowed, eight ninety seven oh ps. Those
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: are not very good numbers. So Houston's been able to
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: hit him a little bit. So I do think Houston
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: might have started pitching edge hear two. I would I
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: would lean Houston here, but I would limit it to
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: first five because there was such a massive bullpen edge
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: for Seattle here. I would go Houston first five in
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: this one. If I was gonna do it, Seattle up
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: for minus one twenty one to minus one thirty eight.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: I don't exactly want to do it, though, because I
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: don't want to fade Handcock when he's in really good
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: form right now. But Seattle minus one thirty eight on
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: the money line now seventy percent of tickets, only sixty
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on them. So I think
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: the initial move that drove them up, I think might
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: have been a fake out. And now it looks like
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: the money might be coming in towards Houston here. And
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: I agree with it, but only in the first five innings.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with the under either here, but
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: Houston's bullpen is very concerning. Man, the totals at seven
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: and a half, sixty four percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the couch on the under. I
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: know we have rested bullpens. It's a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching might be okay both ways, But again, I
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: worry about Hancock's matchup numbers against Houston, and I worry
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: about Houston's bullpen. So I do think I prefer Houston.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: First five innings money line is probably my preference there,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: or maybe a half run on the run line if
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: you can find like a first five run line and
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: you can find like a decent price on that. And
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: then Texas at the Dodgers is the final game. These
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: teams didn't play yesterday either. Texas just swept Seattle. That
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: was a big series for Texas. Man, So yeah, you
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: could argue that maybe Seattle'll be in bounced back mode,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: but they are turning over from a road trip. Texas
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: could be in letdown mode after that really good suite,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: but starting a road trip with momentum that is a positive.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: And I don't think they're really gonna overlook the Dodgers.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it's really a bad spot for
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: Texas here. Dodgers is staying at home or no, excuse me,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: they're not. My mistake, They're returning home from a road trip.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: My mistakes. That is actually bad, my mistake. They were
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: just in Toronto and Washington before that, my mistake. So, yeah,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are turning on from a road trip. Not a
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: good spot returning home from a road trip. You know,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: you can overlook your opponent a lot of the time. Yeah,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: it's just, yeah, not a great spot. You can get
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: distracted and whatever. So the spot is better for Texas here.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: Dodgers do have some pretty clear advantages though. I mean,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: their offense is the best baseball Texas has been all right, though,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: where's Texas at? Well, they were like middle of the pack.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: Now Dodgers definitely have the better offense. Just leave it
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: that way. Texas probably does have the better bullpen. That
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: was the case last year, but the Dodgers' bullpen looks
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: like it has improved a bit. Texas has been a
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: little bit better this year. Both bullpen's doing well this year,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: though Kumar Rocker pitching for the Rangers here still pretty young,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't really panned out yet for them. He
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: was pretty good in his first start, we faded him.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: We still got the win, I believe in the first
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: five innings with Cincinnati, but it got a little bit questionable.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: He went five innings, allowed two hour runs, only had
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts one walk, and he I believe he is
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: more of a strikeout guy than that usually. Actually, maybe not.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: He's had fewer strikeouts than innings pitched. His walk numbers
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: throughout his career have been really bad, though Kumar Walker
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: would be a more appropriate name. He's not John Rocker Man.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: But yeah, his whip overall is era overall throughout his
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: career just hasn't really been that good. But maybe he's
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: improving a little bit. I mean, Texas they have really
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: good pitching coaching, so they've showing the ability to fix pitchers,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: so there is that at least. But he's going up
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: against a really really potent LA lineup here. Man, looking
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: at the Dodger let me see his numbers against it.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: Where the fuck, dude? I hate this ESPN. They got
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: to fix this shit. The Dodgers have never faced it
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: before though, so I guess Rocker does have that advantage
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: where he's unfamiliar to their hitters. So there is that.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: Tyler glasnow the much more proven picture here going for
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. He's pitching well again this season. Fifteen to
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio so far, an eight hits
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: in twelve innings. Good stuff against Arizona and Washington. Washington's
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: actually been hitting well this year in Arizona hasn't So
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you want, but we know
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: who this guy is at this point. Man, he's a
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: good pitcher. He's been able to bounce back from injury
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: fairly well. He's going up against the Texas lineup that
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think is that great. His numbers are a
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: bit of a weird mix against them, though in fifty
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: nine at bats to twenty batting average that looks really good.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: But eight ninety five ops against them, twenty one to
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: sixteen strike out walk ratio. Seeger and Nimo have combined
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: for nine walks against some very strange and Jansen has three.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: And then he's also allowed five home runs to them,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: four from Jansen and McCutcheon. Weird numbers, man, So they've
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: been able to walk against them and hit him for power.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: But they haven't really been able to consistently hit him
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: for contact. Very very strange, you know, the Dodgers. I mean,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: it's too much of our price to lay on the
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: Dodgers as usual. They're up to minus two twenty seven.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know that they have a big enough advantage
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: in this game, although yeah, they're the better team in
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of phases of it. Well, in the hitting
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: they definitely do. Starting pitching they do as well. I
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: would say eighty three percent of tickets ninety nine percent
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. Don't really buy those numbers,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: but I would go under in this game, man. I mean,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: the bullpens have looked good so far. The totals down
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half now, so you're gonna miss
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: that key number of nine though, which I worry about
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit because I'd prefer to have the key
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: number nine. Maybe you could find it under nine at
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: a decent price. So we have fifty percent of tickets
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on the under. I
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: don't really buy that cash, but I do think the
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the under. I do still just
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: have concerns with Rocker though, and glasnow just doesn't have
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: numbers that are as good as I would like in
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: the matchup against Texast, So those things all worry me.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: But we have good bullpens. The bullpen's a arrested here.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are turning over from a road trip, a day
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: off for both teams. That could cool off the offenses there.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: So I don't disagree with an under in that game,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: but I don't love it enough. So those are your
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: two MLB plays there. I'm gonna be right back. I
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: gotta finish this. Still have to get to a doctor's appointment,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: and yeah, I'll be right back. We'll do NBNBA will
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: be faster than MLB was, though. All right, no hockey
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: today because again the NHL and NBA are both like
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: doing this thing where they're making it so that all
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: the teams play on one particular day. So I think
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: there's no NBA tomorrow, and there's a ton of hockey tomorrow,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: but there usually is a lot of hockey on Saturday.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: All right, NBA, I mean we got the standings up here.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: You know, it's really about motivation towards the end of
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: the season. Here Detroit as Charlotte as the first game up.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: One thing I didn't realize is Kate Cunningham actually came back,
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: which I didn't know if I was expecting that, but
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: that that'll help Detroit going into the playoffs, because you
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: don't want Cunningham to be coming back from a long
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: absence and coming in and having that reverse injured player
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: theory come in and like in the playoffs, you know
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: what I mean, So it makes sense to try to
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: work him back. I think he did okay in that
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: game too. He played like twenty something minutes against I
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: don't even remember who is it against the Bucks? Maybe
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: ye had the Bucks. So he did okay there. But
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: Detroit has nothing to play for here, man, They're guaranteed
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: the one seed in the East. Literally, they have nothing
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: to play for. So the motivation is obviously all on
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: the Hornets side here. Hornets trying to still get into
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: that top playing game here at the very least so
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: they can avoid having to play two games to get
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: him for Detroit yeat again. Detroit also might not want
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: to show anything because there's the potential that Charlotte is
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: the team that they face in the first round of
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: the playoffs two potentially, So I think Detroit just, yeah,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: they don't want to show anything here. It's possible that
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: Cunningham might not play in this game. It looks like
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: he's not on the injury report, but I really don't know.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: Charlotte did just lose a win streak with a tough
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: loss to the Celtics. They played fairly well for a
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: lot of that game. So they are coming off a
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: tough game and returning home here. But they're not gonna
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: you know, obviously they're not gonna over this game though.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: There's not gonna be like a mental distraction here, just
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: maybe some fatigue because they played some big games recently here.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: But also Charlotte is a massive favorite here. The books know,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: they basically know what the motivation is here. They know
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: that the Hornets are the only team with reason to
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: show up here. So they're laying five and a half now,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: up from three, and that might mean that, you know,
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: Cunningham might not play in this one. Whatever. Eighty eight
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: on the Hornets. I don't think you can lay five
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: and a half, dude, I just don't. I think the
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: numbers just too high. I'll say what I said with
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: you know, the Knicks last night, the Magic the night
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: before that they could be a moneyline parlay piece. Even
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: though I hate parlays. You never get good enough odds
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: on them. But if you can find another, I know
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: I didn't. I did not give out another parlay leg
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: on those. I'm just saying, if you do have another
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: one that you like, like a favorite in that price range,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: it might make sense. Because I do think the Hornets
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: are gonna win this game. But yeah, that's what I'll
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: say about it. Eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety two
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Hornets. Looks like the
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: public is on the Hornets, which kind of surprises me
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: because a lot of times they just don't pay attention
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: and they're just like, Oh, I'm gonna take the team
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: with the better record getting points, but yeah whatever. Miami
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: at Washington, Miami is pretty much locked into this ten spot,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: Like I don't even know if they can move out
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: of the ten spot at this point. Miami, so they
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: may not have a ton to play for in this game,
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: and they really haven't looked that good. Although once they
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: get into the playan man with Spolster as their coach
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: and some experience on this team, Miami wouldn't necessarily count
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: them out. They did just lose to a motivated Toronto
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: team twice in a row. I thought Miami would be
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: better in both games, and I thought they might be
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: able to zigzag. That didn't happen. That was last night.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: So now they're playing a third game in four days,
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: not all in different cities because the first two were
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: in Toronto, but they're having to go from Toronto to
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: Washington with no time off. That's not great. And the
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: last time they played them was April fourth, and they
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: beat them one fifty two to one thirty six, so
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: they might not take Washington that seriously. Now, is Washington
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: even gonna get up for this game? I have no idea.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: It is their final home game. You could argue they
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: have a chance. It's spoiler here, but you know they're
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: not playing their guys, so you know, I'll talk about
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: like tanking isn't really a thing, But what I mean
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: is that players, once they're on the court, they're not
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: intentionally throwing games because it's just against human nature. Like
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: you go out there, it becomes a fight and you
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: don't wanna you know, you want to you're gonna try
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: to win. It's just the nature of it, but you know,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: there could be guys that are betting against themselves. That
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: is the thing. But the other thing is there is
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: organizational tanking like that happens where it's just that obviously
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: teams are just not playing their best players, you know
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: what I mean. So that's the thing. Washington's kind of
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: doing that here. I don't know if they're trying to
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: do it or not. Because there is a draft lottery,
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: so yeah, you'll improve chances of getting the best pick.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: And now Adam Silver is doing some stupid things saying
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: that he wants to like make it so that the
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: bottom three teams don't get the best odds to get
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: the first draft pick. He's such an idiot, dude. I
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: fucking hate Adam Silver. He's the reason for this stupid
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: playing bullshit to begin with. Worst commissioner in NBA history.
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: What a fuck. He needs to be gone, get him
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: out of there. But anyway, the question is, is Washington
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: gonna show up in this game? I honestly have no idea.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I would want to bank on it,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: because it looks like they're probably trying to get you know,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: one of those top lottery uh, you know, get the
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: top lottery odds, he or whatever. But maybe because they
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: lost to Miami more recently, they have a chance at
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: you know, spoiler as far as ensuring although I don't
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: even know. Again, I don't know. Miami might be locked
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: into the ten seeds, so I don't even know if
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: that's a thing. But you know, maybe Washington wants to
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: win for their final home game. It seems like a
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: lot of these teams don't though. But there's also no
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: way you can lay seventeen and a half with the
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: Heat down from eighteen and a half. Again, I don't
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: even know what the Heat really have to play for.
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if they can get the home
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: game in this bottom playing game, So I have no idea.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: But I would not lay that seventy one percent of tickets,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: only seventy percent of the cash on the Heat. I
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: would lean to taking the points of the Wizards. I
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: don't want to do that either, but yeah, I mean
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: that that would be my opinion. There we have an
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: Amazon Prime doubleheader here. Cleveland is playing Atlanta. Interesting these
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: two teams could potentially match up in the first round
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs, and Atlanta has fallen behind Toronto though
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: Toronto has the tiebreaker. Cleveland might be intentionally trying to
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: get the four seed to avoid Celtics and Knicks in
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: the second round, or I shouldn't say Celtics or Knicks. I
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's the case. Cleveland did just beat
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: Atlanta too, but it was a close game, so I
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: could see it go in two ways. That was at Cleveland.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: Cleveland wound up covering, but I don't know how they covered.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: Atlanta was in that game pretty much the whole way.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: Now it could be a zigzag for Atlanta here. Maybe
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: Atlanta will show up with some adjustments that they make
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: off of that. Maybe Cleveland got a scare and maybe
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: they will show up here. But I think Cleveland is
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: fine with getting the four seed here. Man, I don't
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: know what motivation they're gonna have here. Atlanta still needs
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: to make sure they avoid the play in because they
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: could actually still fall into the play in. So Atlanta
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: does have I think more motivation in this one. And
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: you look at the number and you're gonna think, well,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: what's going on here? The Hawks are a six and
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: a half point favored up to eight and a half,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: and the public looks like they're kind of on that side.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: Seventy two percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent of
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. So the money is saying take
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: the points of the calves. I don't think I want
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: to do that, And in fact, I actually think the
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: Hawks are probably the other money line parlay piece that
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: you want parlay them with the Hornets moneyline parlay. I
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: think they're both gonna win here, man, because even though
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: the public is saying to fade Atlanta as far as
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: that number, and again, yeah, I agree that number is
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: probably too high on the Hawks there. I don't think
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: they should be that much of a favorite. But Donovan
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: Mitchell's not playing, Jared Allen is not playing, so Cleveland again,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: I think they're okay with the four seed here because
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: some of their guys are just not playing and it's
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: kind of like a rest you know, situation. Just make
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: sure those guys are healthy whatever. So yeah, that's what's
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: going on there. I think Atlanta will get the win there.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: They clearly have more to play for, so I think
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: they're not a horrible moneyline parlay piece there. Even though
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: the money is saying to fade them on the spread,
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would even really want to do that.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: You know, if you force my hand, I would actually
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I might lean towards laying it,
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: but of course you don't have to do that. I
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: would not really actually do that. New Orleans at the Celtics.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: Celtics played last night and lost to the Knicks in
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: a close game, big game. So it's not the greatest
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: spot for the Celtics having to play on a back
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: to back here. Celtics got to get one more win
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: to just ensure that they're gonna be the two seed though,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: which I do think they're actually trying for it at
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: this point. They want to get home advantage in that
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: theoretical second round matchup against the Knicks, man because the
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: Knicks have been nowhere near as good on the road.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: So the Celtics they got to win one of these
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: remaining games. That's what they have to do. But then again,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: win and you're in that type of scenario is not
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: that great because it like you get just hyper focus
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: on we just need to win, we just need to win.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: And again, it's not a good spot. After blowing a
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: four game win streak last night with a close loss
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: to a pretty good Nick team on they're playing New Orleans.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: New Orleans has been the only team that's really been
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: kind of trying to win games down the stretch, and
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: that's they have a decent line up here and then
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: their guys want to go out there and play. And
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: New Orleans does not have a first round draft pick
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: in this upcoming draft, so that's the other reason why
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: they're doing it. They did just break along losing streak.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: They lost whatever this is, eight games in a row, maybe,
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: but they were competitive a lot of those games. They
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: won a game against Utah, so that might break that
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: losing momentum. And they have a huge rest advantage with
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: two days off here, but they're having to travel to Boston.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: But I think they will probably actually show up for this.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: They have the momentum edge here and having broken their
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: losing streak here where the Celtics lost their win streak Celtics,
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: no rest rest for New Orleans here. Yeah, I think
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: it makes sense. It's just that New Orleans just put
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: up one hundred and fifty six points, which I don't
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: really love that much, So, you know, I don't really
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: want to be on a team that did that, but
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with New Orleans here. The
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: money's not agreeing with me. The Celtics are sixteen and
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite, so I will say the Celtics
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: better just get the win here. And the one thing
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: for the Celtics you could say is Jalen Brown didn't
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: play last night. I think he was like the only
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: guy for them that didn't play last night. But that
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: means he's rested at least for the Celtics. So he's
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: one of their best players obviously, and that makes the
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: Celtics rest disadvantage a little bit less bad. Sixty percent
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: think it's ninety three percent of the cash on the Celtics.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: The money's saying the Celtics. I don't agree with that.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Pelicans there, but
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: hopefully the Celtics just win, just get it done, wrap
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: up the two seed. That's all I care about as
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: a Celtic fan. All Right, Philadelphia at Indiana. Here, Philadelphia,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: they're still playing for something. They've lost three games in
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: a row though, and they played last night at Houston.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: I mean they've been playing some difficult teams here. They
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: get a little bit of a reprieve here playing at Indiana,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: but they're on a back to back off a tough
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: game against Houston last night, So it's not the greatest
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: spot for them motivation wise. Philadelphia pretty much locked into
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: the playans now, but they want to stay in the
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: top playing game at the very least, like they don't
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: want to fall into the bottom playing and have to
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: play two games. So that's not what you want. They
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: should have motivation in that respect. As far as Indiana
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: is concerned, they have a rest advantage because they didn't
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: play yesterday. They beat Brooklyn to blowout. Oh no, they
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: did my mistake. What am I saying? They played yesterday?
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: Both teams did my mistake. Indiana is returning home from Brooklyn.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if Indiana is gonna give
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: you much or not here. I mean, it looks like
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: they are still trying, so you can give them that
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: they're putting an effort. They blew out Brooklyn last night.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: Maybe the look ahead to Detroit though on deck. But
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: they do have a chance to play spoiler against the Sixers,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: and the pressure is all on the Sixers. Sixers are
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: laying fifteen on the road here. I would not do that.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: Fifty percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: on them, So the money is saying the sixers. I
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: probably disagree. I'd probably lean slightly towards taking the points there,
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna get involved in that game at all.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: Toronto at the Knicks way too many games today, man, Toronto,
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: Like I said, they just swept a two game event,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: if you want to call it that against Miami. They
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: they played yesterday. Now they're going to the Knicks. But
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: of course the Knicks had a huge win yesterday against
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: the Celtics. The Knicks, I don't know if they're trying
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: to get the two seeds or not. It looks like
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: maybe they are. Uh so, maybe they will try here.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: They do have to play Toronto and Charlotte, so you
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: know they might slip up in one of these games.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: Toronto needs the game more probably though, I mean the Knicks, yeah,
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess they would like to get the
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: two seed. But if the Celtics win, then the Knicks
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: can't get the two seed anyway, So it's pretty unlikely
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: the Knicks are. They do have the chance to fall
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: to the four, but I'm gonna be honest, maybe the
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: Knicks don't care if that happens. Although they haven't been
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: good against Detroit this year at all, but maybe they
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: would accept that. I don't know, but you know you're
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: gonna get an effort out of Toronto here, man, because
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: they're only one game out of falling into the play
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: and they're tied with Atlanta here. So Toronto has a
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: motivation to keep winning, and they're an underdog here, and
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: Toronto is better as an underdog. So I would probably
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: lean to Toronto. But the money's coming in on the Knicks.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: I'm just disagreeing with every market read. The Knicks are
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: six point favorite, fifty tickets, seventy percent of the cash
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: on the Knicks, I don't really agree with that. I'd
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: probably take the points with Toronto there, all right. Orlando
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: at Chicago, Orlando is also playing to maintain a playing
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: spot here. They could actually get out of the play
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: and believe it or not, Orlando's been playing pretty well here. WHOA,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: I'm getting a little bit woozy here man. Hold on
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: a second, who lightheaded? Orlando could get out of the
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: play in here, man, So there is a chance that
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: they could do that. So they do have some motivation here,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: and they also could fall into the bottom playing game,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: which they don't really want here. They're going to Chicago.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, Chicago doesn't really have that much motivation here,
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: but of course Orlando is going to be laying a
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: lot of points. Orlando's been hot. They've won four games
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: in a row. They did just beat Detroit and Minnesota,
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: and they got the Celtics to finish the season on ESPN.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: So there are some aspects of this that look like
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: a Sandwich spot. But again, Orlando does have motivation here
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: as well. Then you know the question is gonna be
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: they're gonna cover a huge number like this. Chicago might
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: actually be trying a little bit. They've won two games
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: in a row, both against washing though, and one was yesterday,
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: so they are turning home from the road. It was
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: a quick two game road trip only to Washington though,
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: returning home from that it is their final home game,
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: So maybe Chicago will show up here. I don't have
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: a good read on this one. Orlando clearly does have
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: more motivation. They're laying fifteen here. You know, you could
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: argue that it's too many points and the pressure is
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: on them as well. Uh, seventy three percent of tickets,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on Orlando. I don't.
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Orlando started trying to play slower
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: again or not, because they had sped up their pace
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: coming into this year, and I thought that was stupid
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: because they're more of a slow paced defensive team. The
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: Bulls try to speed the game up. So I don't know, man,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: but Magic, I mean, I don't know if they're the
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: style of a team that you really want to lay
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: that many points with money is coming in on Orlando.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: Clearly they do have the motivation here, But I don't
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: think I would lay the points there. Man, I just don't. Yeah,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it. I don't know, man, It's it's
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: a tough game to figure out. Money is saying Orlando.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: I slightly kind of lean the opposite, you know me.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: I'm just basically, I just don't think there's value on
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: these big favorites when you know that they kind of
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: need to win the game. Brooklyn at Milwaukee, this is
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: a game that doesn't really matter. Brooklyn just got annihilated
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: in their final home game by Indiana. Maybe they want
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: to show something here. Milwaukee just got blown out by Detroit.
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: I believe Brooklyn played yesterday and Milwaukee did not. Let
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: me make sure of that. Uh, yes, that's the case.
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: So Milwaukee is more rested here. At least Milwaukee's returning
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: home from going to Brooklyn and Detroit. So they just
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: lost at Brooklyn. So maybe Milwaukee will actually show up
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: for this one. They're the more rested team. You know, No, no
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: good gauge on this game at all. For me, the
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: money is saying the nets though the Bucks are minus
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: nine and a half seventy percent of tickets, only fifty
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: one percent of the couch on the Bucks total is
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: low at two eighteen and a half. Nine and a
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: half might be a lot to lay here with a
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: team it just is playing for nothing here. I mean,
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: it's a crapshoot of a game, Like, I don't want
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: anything to do with it. This end of season NBA
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: games are so difficult, dude. You know, the money is saying, Brooklyn,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: do with that what you want. I think Milwaukee is
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: probably gonna win the game, though, but you know who knows,
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: h Dallas at San Antonio. Let me see here, Dallas,
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: I mean they might get up for this. I mean
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: San Antonio is a Texas rival. Here Dallas looks like
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: they are actually trying to play competitively for the most part. Here,
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a close game against Phoenix. They're playing
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: a third game in four days, fourth and six, all
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: in different cities though, which is not that easy. But
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: san Antonio has nothing to play for. I mean, they're
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: locked into the two seed in the West. I think
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: they're guaranteed of the two seed. Orlando excuse the Oklahoma
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: City has got the asterisk, which means that they are
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: they clinched the one seed. They clinched it last night.
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: I think san Antonio and just beat Portland the other night. Whatever.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: They're staying at home here, but they do have a
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: big ESPN game against Denver. And again, san Antonio has
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: nothing to play for here. And that Denver game is
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: I guess interesting because they might meet up in the
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: playoffs too, So I would not lay it with san
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: Antonio here. And man, I think Dallas, you know, they're
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: a young team, maybe with something to prove. This is
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: this is a game where the MAVs might actually show
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: up for the game. Spurs have nothing to play for it, dude.
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: They're seventeen and a half here. Ninety one percent of
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: the money on the Spurs though, and fifty to fifty
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: on the tickets. It makes no sense. You would expect
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: the public would only want to play the Spurs here.
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with that. How can you lay seventeen
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: and a half with a team that has nothing to
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: play for. I realize how good the Spurs are either
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: thirty one and seven at home? Yeah, I just I
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: wouldn't do it. Man Wemby, you gotta see if he's
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: playing or not. He and Castle have both been in
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: and out of the lineup. Wemby is questionable. They rested
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: him in the last game. But even if he comes back,
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you're just getting a boatload of
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: points with Dallas. It's probably the way I would lean there.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City at Denver, okay See has nothing to play
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: for at this point. Either they just clinched the one
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: spot last night or two nights ago, I guess against
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: the Clippers, or maybe the clinching happened last night, because no,
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think so, because they and the Spurs both
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: played two nights ago. So I think okay See clinched
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: it Wednesday, But this is their first game that they're
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: playing since clinching. It's a third game in four days,
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: fourth and eight day fourth and six days excuse me,
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: all in different cities going into elevation. Here, Denver actually
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: has a little bit to play for here because they
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: do have the there's a chance that they don't even
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: get home court, I think, still in the first round.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: So I think Denver probably does have something to play
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: for here still, and they're playing against the Thunder, So
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: I think Denver will show up for this game, Denver
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: staying at home, a little bit more rested here, less
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: travel from them coming off an easier game against Memphis.
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: I would mean Denver in this game. Okay, see again,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: they got nothing to play for him, man, So like,
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: where's the motivation gonna come here? Let me see what
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: is the number on this? Though? I don't. I also
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: don't know if the Thunder are gonna rest guys or right, yeah,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: the Thunder are obviously resting guys though that's the problem.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: The Nuggets are a twelve point favorite, fifty to fifty
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: on the tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets. I'm not gonna lay that. I just won't.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Thunder their backups are actually really good,
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I wouldn't do it. Man. I mean I
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: was gonna say, I was, I was gonna lean to
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 1: Denver because I thought they were gonna be a small
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: favorite or something here. But I can't. There's no way
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: you can lay twelve, man, you just can't do it.
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, they could be another money line parlay piece
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: maybe if you want to do that, but I think
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: Denver's gonna win the game. But and the public will
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: see the number and jump all over okac here. I
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know if I would still lean
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: towards laying it with Denver with that price, Jude. I
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: mean obviously it means okay see is resting everybody. Yeah,
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: Sga is not playing here, Hartenstein's not playing one of
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: the Jalen Williams is the lesser of the two. I
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: think it's not playing. Caruso is out, Yeah, I mean,
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Sga is out right, He's got the
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: own actually home Grin is out as well. Jokich is
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: a game time decision, but I think he is going
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: to play and Murray and Gordon, so I would pay
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: attention to all that. But it looks like, yeah, pretty
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: much everyone's playing for Denver and nobody's playing for ok see,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: but again, okay sees backups are still quite good, so
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't count them out as far as covering a
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: number like that. Yeah, it's a mess of a game, dude.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Houston on Amazon Prime here. Good game. Uh, it's
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: an interesting game. Well, I think Minnesota is locked into
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: the six at this point, though, I don't think Minnesota
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: can move up or down, so Minnesota really doesn't actually
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: have that much to play for. Houston still has the obviously,
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: they have a chance because they're tied with the Lakers.
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: They can overtake the Lakers for the home series there
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: and get the four seats. So Houston has something to
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: play for. Minnesota did just lose Orlando, third game in
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: four days, all in different cities. I just don't know
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: if Minnesota has much motivation here, and Anthony Edwards might
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: not play. Houston obviously has the motivation here. Minnesota has
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: nothing to play for. Houston. It's been hot, eight wins
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: in a row for them. They just played last night though,
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: so they're on of back to back. They beat Philadelphia.
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna overlook this game, but they might be
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit unrested here, at least for them they're
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: staying at home, but you're laying ten and a half
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: of the Rockets here. Man. Again, the odds makers know
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: where the motivation is. Tea Wolves look like they might
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: be resting. It might be a Anthony Edwards and go
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: Bear has also been hurt, so they might both be
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: out for the Tea Wolves here. I think Randall has
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: kind of been in and out of the lineup too.
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: I like the Rockets, man, but again, I don't think
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: I would want to lay that number. So yeah, it's
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: just stay away from me man. Memphis and Utah, believe
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: it or not, is my play. We're taking a bit
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: of a different approach today. We're gonna go over the
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: total here. I know I'm not a totals guy whatever,
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: but this is a situation where both teams have nothing
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: to play for, so basically that means you're not gonna
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: get intense defense. Utah has been giving up a ton
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: of points in their games recently, and Utah typically scores
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: a lot at home too, and I think we're at
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: maybe more of a defensive disadvantage for Utah, which I'll
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: talk about in a second. Because the spot's bad. Memphis
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: is coming out of elevation as well. They played on Wednesday.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: They're playing you know, they're not very well rested, at least,
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: they're playing a fourth game in six days, all in
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: different cities. So it's not great for Memphis either. So
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: they're not really rested either. And they've played a lot
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: of high scoring games recently too. They have a lot
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty one or more points in five
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: of their last six games, so they have not been
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: stopping any offense. Utah, on the other hands, are turning
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. That's a bad spot because
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: you know, you get distracted to get back to home.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: I think that can show up on the defensive side.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: They've been away for a week and they've allowed a
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: ton of points recently too. They've alloted one hundred and
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: forty or more in their last three games, and they
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: have a lot one hundred and thirty or more in
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: all but one game going all the way back to
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 1: March twenty third. They're just giving it up big time. Man.
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are, so they're just not playing defense.
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: I know it's Utah's final home game, but that can
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: only get you so far. Yeah, they're a little bit
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: rested but the return home spot kind of negates the
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 1: amount of rests that they have, or I think they're
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: gonna be distracted, just happy to be back home. Whatever.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: They do have the Lakers next, which maybe they'll pay
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: more attention to that game. I think it's gonna be
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: a distracted game. Both teams just haven't been playing any
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 1: defense here, man. I know the total is high. It's
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: up to two forty nine now. I found it a
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: two forty seven and a half at I think it
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: was the book that starts with the M. It might
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: have been FD though it was either FD or M
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: with the GM. I don't know. But if you go
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: over to forty eight whatever, I think you can find
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: two forty eight to forty eight and a half, I'd
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: still do it. Probably seventy seven percent of tickets on
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: the over, ninety nine percent of the cash on the
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: over we have grizzly sixty percent of the tickets on them,
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash on the Jazz. The
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: money is indicating on the Jazz. I would not play
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: the Jazz though in the return home spot. In no way.
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: I'd probably lean the other direction. But I think the
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: way better approach is the over, so that is what
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: we're doing there. Then let's finish this man, Clippers in Portland.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: These two teams have something to play for because they're
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: jocking for playing positioning here. Clippers are trying to stay
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: in the top playing game so they only have to
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: play one game to get into the playoffs. Portland is
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: trying to jump them and get into it. So these
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: teams both have something to play for. They just played
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: recently in Portland one at at LA back you know,
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: several games ago, so LA might have some adjustments to
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: make here the Clippers and get better at at Portland
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: for that. Man, a double digit home loss to Portland,
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: that's bad. I mean the Clippers might flip it around. Man.
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: Clippers are coming up playing Oklahoma City, which isn't exactly great.
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: They have one day off here playing a third game
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: at four A's, which is not exactly great, but the
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: experience might get them there. Man, in a game that
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: might kind of take on more of a playoff atmosphere.
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: Kawhi Leonard has been excellent, even though he's old. It's
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: been crazy, you know, Darius Garland. Guys like that. They
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: do have experience. Portland is definitely a less experienced team,
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off a pretty big game as well
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: against San Antonio. They're a little bit more arrested, but
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: they're returning on from the road, going to Denver and
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: playing a tough game there and then going to San Antonio.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the Clippers in this one. Man.
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a road reversal angle here,
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: or I think the Clippers might show up better here.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: The money's disagree with me on that one too. Fifty
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Clippers, sixty three percent of
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Blazers, Blazers at one and a half.
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: I just don't like it, man. I think that the
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: Clippers will have the adjustments to make after losing at
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: home to the Blazers. I think the experience matters in
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: a game like this. Got to give the Clippers that
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: as well, So that would be my opinion there. But
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: not a play for me. Golden State at Sacramento. I
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: don't know the Golden State has anything to play for it. Yeah,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: I think Golden State's locked into the ten spot in
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: the West, so they're gonna be looking ahead to that
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: play in don't know if Curry is even gonna play
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: in this game. Golden State just played Sacramento two games
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: and going barely got by them at home, and then
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: they lost to LA yesterday to the Lakers, who finally
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: got a win, an upset win from the very injured Lakers.
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: I think Curry might have not played in that game, though,
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: which I didn't realize Curry wasn't gonna play in that
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: game when I handicapped it in the morning. Golden State
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: is on a back to back now having to go
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: to Sacramento. Maybe Sacramento will get up for this one
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: game because they're playing against Golden State. They played them
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: tough last time. They have more rest. They haven't played
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: since then on Tuesday, so they're more rested here. Less
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: travel pretty much, well sort of less travel. I mean,
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: both teams are just staying in northern California though, but
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: Sacramento has been at home for a while. But again,
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: that game can kind of take a lot out of you,
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: and you're Sacramento and you play close as a big underdog.
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, but Golden State has absolutely nothing
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 1: to play for here. Don't even know if Curry's gonna
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: play here. Maybe Sacramento will get up for this Warriors
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: are length ten and a half on the road right now.
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: We don't see the percentages yet, but i'd probably need
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: to taking the points there with Sacramento. That would probably
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: be the way I would go, And then we have
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: Phoenix at La at the Lakers to finish this off.
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: Lakers are trying to maintain that home court man, although
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know when they're injured, players are even coming back.
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 1: Of course, they're without Luca Ann Reeves for the foreseeable future.
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: They don't want to fall out of the having the
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: home series here, but it might happen. Phoenix doesn't have
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: anything to play for though, Phoenix is locked into the
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: seventh spots, So maybe Phoenix will get up for the
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: game just because it's against the Lakers. But I don't know.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: Phoenix coming off playing Dallas too close for comfort probably
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: a couple of days ago. But again Phoenix, again, they
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: don't really have much to play for here, but maybe
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: again because it is the Lakers, maybe they will get
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: up for it. I don't know what the fuck that
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: Disney thing was that freaked me out. Lakers coming up
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: beating Golden State a nice win for them, but maybe
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: it would be good it'll give them momentum their first
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: win since all the injuries happened. They have more to
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: play for here, but they're on a back to back,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: so they're not well rested. They're coming off in upset
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: last night coming back home, so I don't want anything
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: to do with this game. The money is kind of
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: indicating on the Lakers. I guess the Suns and flipp
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: have gone up from a one point favorite to or
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite, but again laying points
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: on the road from a team that really doesn't have
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 1: anything to play for eighty percent of tickets, ninety nine
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: percent of the casual the Lakers. I'm gonna lean to
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, the team that has something to play for
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: as a home dog. That would be the way I
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 1: would lean. And that's it, Man Long Show. Today, our
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 1: play sit here. The Detroit Tigers on the minus one
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 1: run line. We're gonna go first five innings, Colorado on
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: the run line plus the half run, and I recommend
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 1: sprinkling a little bit on the money line in that one.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 1: NBA we're going with a total and we're going over
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: in Memphis and Utah. I think it's a good spot
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: for that. Find the best number that you can. Hopefully
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: you can find it in the two forty eight or
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: so range there. I think we'll see a lot of
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: points in that one. I know it's a high total,
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: but it's high for reason. That's gonna do it. Learn
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: a tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram, Mike,
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here, get notified when I go live.
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: We'll probably be live against just tomorrow morning, the normal show.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow's Saturday, though, so to be interesting, I will be
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: on Hindians Show to I think so. I don't know
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: where he's at, but you can try to figure that out.
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm gonna be on his show, and I'm
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: actually gonna be I believe with Tyler Yankee on his
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: show I think tomorrow. But that might be a Patreon
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: show only, so go subscribe to him as well. I
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: think I'm gonna be on that tomorrow. I was on
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: nephluin Desk Squad yesterday too, so I'm on a lot
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: of shows for no reason recently. So check all that out. Yeah,
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: covering to you because my yuke channel on YouTube, you
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: can check that o. I'll check this show out on
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: audio too. By the way, that helps me out as well.
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: Everything helps me out, man, Let's boost everything. Patreon, dot com,
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: slash learn to toad, I'm trying to keep up with that.
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: I gotta get out of here and shower and go
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 1: to the stupid doctor's appointment, and I gotta get this
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 1: up on audio real quick too, which takes a little while.
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: What else a is I gonna say? I forget what
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say? Oh yeah, Loser Casts will be
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: back on Tuesday. How could I forget? So? I don't
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: know if Loser Casts did an episode last night or not.
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: I was obviously not present for it. But yeah, I'll
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: be back with them on Tuesday. That's gonna do it.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys, Peace,