Latest / Simply Bitcoin / IT'S OVER: How Trump Just DESTROYED The Bitcoin Bull Run | Beyond Bitcoin

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IT'S OVER: How Trump Just DESTROYED The Bitcoin Bull Run | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Bitcoin just got absolutely tariff slapped.
• 0:04
  Bitcoin tanked after President Trump's announcement to hike
• 0:07
  global tariffs to 15%. Meanwhile, the fearmongers are
• 0:10
  screaming. Bear market confirmed.
• 0:12
  Bear market confirmed. Right now Bitcoin sits around
• 0:14
  $66,000. That's down 26% year to date.
• 0:19
  But that's nearly 47% off of its all time high back in October of
• 0:22
  125 K. The four year crowd is calling
• 0:25
  for 50K and the perma bears, well, they're celebrating.
• 0:28
  Everybody watching the chart is feeling the same question in
• 0:31
  their gut. Is 2026 over before it even
• 0:34
  started? Emotions.
• 0:35
  This is beyond Bitcoin. Let's dive in.
• 0:43
  As I mentioned, Bitcoin just got tariffs slapped.
• 0:46
  President Trump raised global tariffs to 15% and Bitcoin
• 0:49
  dropped 5% in one day. Bitcoin is hitting prices we
• 0:54
  haven't seen in years, which has led me to having a few
• 0:57
  uncomfortable conversations with my wife.
• 1:00
  I said it's going up. Yes it will.
• 1:05
  I promise it's going up. But here's the thing nobody's
• 1:09
  talking about The new tariffs are legally fragile.
• 1:12
  They expire in 150 days. And while everyone was
• 1:15
  panicking, Sailor and others continue to accumulate from What
• 1:18
  do you think of Sailor? Sailor recently completed his
• 1:21
  100th purchase of Bitcoin. Yay 100.
• 1:24
  Woohoo. There you go, Michael Saylor for
• 1:26
  another Bitcoin purchase on the same day Bitcoin dipped below
• 1:31
  65,000. And this leads us to one
• 1:33
  important question. Do you think Sailor will throw
• 1:35
  another 100K party this year? Or will it just be a 50K party,
• 1:39
  you know, with half the guests? No wonder why I didn't get
• 1:42
  invited the last time. This actually leads us to one
• 1:44
  important question, which is, is 2026 already over?
• 1:47
  Is the bull run we were expecting not coming?
• 1:50
  But before I answer that, let's break down the tariff story
• 1:53
  everyone's confused about. Understanding this is the key to
• 1:55
  understanding where markets are headed for the rest of 2026.
• 1:58
  And on Friday, the Supreme Court ruled six to three that Trump's
• 2:02
  sweeping i.e. EPA tariffs were illegal.
• 2:07
  The big ones, the country specific tariffs, some as high
• 2:10
  as 50%. Gone.
• 2:12
  The court killed them. So what did Trump do?
• 2:14
  He fired back within a few hours, probably sent a couple
• 2:16
  tweets. He signed a new executive order
• 2:18
  under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a 10% global
• 2:23
  tariff, then raised it to 15% the next day.
• 2:26
  The 15% is the legal maximum under section 122.
• 2:30
  He literally hit the ceiling. Bitcoin fell 5%.
• 2:33
  It hit 64,000. The bear market confirmed.
• 2:36
  Crowd came out swinging. But here's what they missed.
• 2:39
  Section 122 tariffs have 150 day clock.
• 2:42
  They're temporary by law, and they're already facing legal
• 2:46
  challenges. This is not a structural reset
• 2:48
  of global trade. This is a policy grenade that
• 2:52
  expires in about 5 months. That doesn't change.
• 2:55
  I think, you know, if you listen to people, someone will say,
• 3:02
  well, you know, this weekend there might be some problem in
• 3:05
  Iran or in the Middle East. And if there is a problem in the
• 3:08
  Middle East, and if the US does something with regard to Iran,
• 3:12
  then Bitcoin's the only thing you can sell.
• 3:14
  And then Bitcoin price may crash and we're worried about it.
• 3:18
  And I'll say, well, you know, if something happens in the Middle
• 3:21
  East, Bitcoin will be the only thing you can sell.
• 3:23
  It'll also be the only thing you can buy.
• 3:26
  And so that just means that a lot of people that want to trade
• 3:30
  on the weekend are transferring capital to crypto exchanges so
• 3:33
  that they can either buy or sell or sell, buy, sell and buy
• 3:38
  Bitcoin four times between Friday at 4:00 PM and Monday
• 3:42
  morning at 9:30 AM. And yeah, if you're a trader,
• 3:46
  what does that make this? It makes it the most interesting
• 3:49
  asset in the world for you. While the panic was overblown,
• 3:52
  Sailor just hit what he's calling the Orange Century.
• 3:56
  So you have a world which is not served well by the 20th century,
• 4:00
  conventional finance assets and finance structures and finance
• 4:04
  ideologies and finance protocols.
• 4:07
  You have a new world, a digital world with digital protocols,
• 4:11
  digital assets, digital capital, digital credit, digital money.
• 4:16
  Is it going to solve all the problems?
• 4:18
  No. There's going to be a lot of
• 4:19
  problems in the world that we're not solving with digital money,
• 4:22
  digital credit and digital capital.
• 4:24
  However, walk down the street and ask 100 people whether or
• 4:30
  not they'd like more money. Every one of them is going to
• 4:34
  say I'd like more money, Sailor. Didn't hit no bell and neither
• 4:38
  did I. Now let's cover the Fear and
• 4:40
  greed index that just hit five. You know, 55.
• 4:44
  That's 5 out of 100. That sounds more like my high
• 4:47
  school math scores. That is the lowest reading in
• 4:50
  its entire recorded history. Lower than COVID, lower than
• 4:53
  FTX, lower than when Mike Novogratz regretfully got that
• 4:57
  Luna tattoo before its collapse. And every single time this index
• 5:00
  has hit extreme lows, the people who held or bought came out of
• 5:04
  the other side very, very rich. If you buy a farm, do you get a
• 5:08
  quote next week? Do you get a quote next month?
• 5:10
  If you buy an apartment house, do you get a quote next week or
• 5:12
  month? No.
• 5:13
  You look at the apartment house or the farm and you say, I
• 5:16
  expected it to produce so many bushels of soy beans and corn.
• 5:19
  And if it does that, it meets my expectations.
• 5:22
  But they buy a stock and they think of it goes up, it's
• 5:24
  wonderful. And if it goes down, it's bad.
• 5:26
  We think just the opposite. When it goes down, we love it
• 5:28
  because we'll buy more. And if it goes up, we it kills
• 5:31
  us to buy more. And I, you know, all kind of,
• 5:38
  you know, Ben Graham wrote about it.
• 5:39
  It's been explained. But if you can't get yourself in
• 5:43
  that mental attitude, you're going to be scared whenever
• 5:47
  everybody else is scared and and expect somebody else to tell you
• 5:51
  when to buy and therefore get your courage back up or
• 5:53
  something. You know, I could get this
• 5:55
  fellow's courage up substantially by saying it's a
• 5:58
  wonderful time to buy. And then a week from now, he'd
• 6:00
  run into somebody else that tells him the world is coming to
• 6:03
  an end. Remember, tariffs are
• 6:05
  inflationary, the dollar is already at a four year low, gold
• 6:08
  is at all time highs and JP Morgan, yes, that JP Morgan just
• 6:12
  called Bitcoin at 165,000 by the end of the year.
• 6:17
  The debasement trade isn't coming.
• 6:18
  It's already here. And then there's Sailor.
• 6:20
  On the same day all this chaos was playing out.
• 6:23
  Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, completed its
• 6:26
  100th consecutive Bitcoin purchase, 592 Bitcoin.
• 6:31
  That's about $40 million of Bitcoin.
• 6:33
  At 67286 per coin, Strategy now holds 717,722 Bitcoin.
• 6:40
  That is 3.4% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist.
• 6:44
  Sailor is technically down from his average.
• 6:46
  His average purchase price is around $76,000.
• 6:49
  He's sitting on a draw down and he bought more for the 100th
• 6:53
  time in a row. Let that sink in for all you
• 6:56
  trying to huddle and accumulate. And this is the line that
• 7:00
  matters. 4 words. Sailor posted it on X.
• 7:04
  There are no tariffs on Bitcoin. Is that 4 words?
• 7:07
  I don't think that's 4 words. Steel can be tariffed, wheat can
• 7:11
  be tariffed, semiconductors can be tariffed.
• 7:13
  But you cannot put a custom checkpoint on a peer-to-peer
• 7:17
  network. Bitcoin doesn't care about
• 7:18
  borders. It doesn't ask for permission.
• 7:21
  There's no dock it arrives at, no port to inspect it, no import
• 7:25
  duty. You send it and it arrives.
• 7:27
  Every country that puts up trade walls makes the argument for
• 7:29
  Bitcoin stronger, not weaker. This is Sailor.
• 7:32
  A week ago on Fox Business, he called it a crypto winter.
• 7:34
  But listen to what comes next. We are in a crypto winter.
• 7:38
  This is the fifth major draw down of Bitcoin in the five
• 7:41
  years since I've been in the marketplace.
• 7:44
  This is a much milder winter than previous winters.
• 7:48
  It'll be shorter than previous winters.
• 7:50
  It's going to be followed by a spring and then a glorious
• 7:53
  summer. So don't fear.
• 7:55
  Why do you? Feel so confident.
• 7:57
  Saying that. The the the banking segment
• 8:03
  sector is supporting Bitcoin much more strongly today than we
• 8:06
  were four years ago. We've got the formation of
• 8:09
  digital credit networks, banking credit networks, we've got the
• 8:13
  support of the administration, we've got a Bitcoin president,
• 8:17
  we've got 12 cabinet members that are pro digital assets and
• 8:21
  pro innovation. And every single month you see a
• 8:25
  new advances in the digital asset space which are bringing
• 8:28
  extraordinary productivity to the economy and and a lot of
• 8:32
  capital to the asset. Class.
• 8:33
  It's a winter milder than 2022 spring, then glorious summer.
• 8:38
  That's a man who holds 717,000 Bitcoin talking and he's buying
• 8:42
  more at the same time that he's saying it.
• 8:44
  That's not a hedge, that's conviction and by the way, let
• 8:47
  me remind you strategy cannot be liquidated until Bitcoin hits
• 8:50
  $8000 per coin. That's it.
• 8:53
  They confirmed it publicly $8000 while the panic crowd is
• 8:56
  screaming about 50K as if it were the end of strategy.
• 8:59
  It doesn't even come close real quick.
• 9:01
  If you've been watching this channel, you know I'm serious
• 9:03
  about being prepared, right? And our partners at sat123.com
• 9:07
  are serious about being prepared too, probably a little bit more
• 9:10
  than I am. These guys carry premium
• 9:12
  survival gear, the kind you actually want when things get
• 9:15
  weird out there. And right now, with tariffs on
• 9:17
  everything and supply chains getting unpredictable, having
• 9:20
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• 9:23
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• 9:27
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• 9:32
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• 9:35
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• 9:38
  All right, let me address the 50K crowd for a second because
• 9:41
  the four year cycle bears are out in full force.
• 9:44
  Analysts pointing at RSI levels from 2018, whatever RSI is
• 9:49
  monthly closes on chain metrics all saying the same thing,
• 9:53
  $50,000 Bitcoin, maybe lower. The cycle's broken.
• 9:56
  We're in a bear market. Pack it up.
• 9:57
  Here's my question. What does the data actually say?
• 10:00
  The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 5, as I mentioned on
• 10:03
  February 6th, 5 out of 100, the most extreme fear reading ever
• 10:08
  recorded in history of the index.
• 10:10
  Let me put that that in context. During COVID, the crash of March
• 10:13
  2020 when the entire world shut down and Bitcoin fell 50% in two
• 10:17
  days, the index hit 8. During the Luna collapse that
• 10:21
  wiped out 40 billion in a week. It hit 6 during FTX, the most
• 10:25
  catastrophic exchange collapse in crypto history. 12.
• 10:28
  So February 6th 2026 hit five, an all time low.
• 10:34
  And what happened after COVID? Bitcoin ran from 3800 to 60,000
• 10:39
  after Luna. It ran from 17,000 to 73,000
• 10:43
  after FTX 15500 to 100,000. Every time the market hit
• 10:48
  extreme fear, the people who held or bought were rewarded
• 10:53
  enormously. And this month just printed the
• 10:55
  most extreme fear ever might tell you something.
• 10:58
  And here's where it gets a little interesting.
• 11:00
  While your Twitter timeline was filled with 50K incoming posts,
• 11:04
  the wallets that actually hold serious Bitcoin were doing
• 11:07
  something different. This is glass node data Wales,
• 11:11
  you know wallets holding between 1100 thousand Bitcoin
• 11:14
  accumulated over 230,000 Bitcoin in three months $15.6 billion
• 11:22
  worth of Bitcoin on February 6 alone.
• 11:25
  The day of Fear and Greed index hits its all time low. 66,940
• 11:30
  Bitcoin flowed into accumulation addresses in one day.
• 11:34
  Your Twitter timeline is full of 50K predictions.
• 11:37
  Whale wallets are full of Bitcoin.
• 11:39
  Decide which one you want to follow.
• 11:40
  And there's a technical signal that almost nobody is talking
• 11:42
  about funding rates, the cost of holding leveraged long positions
• 11:46
  on exchanges that just went deeply negative.
• 11:49
  The last time funding rates were this negative was August 2024.
• 11:54
  What happened after that? Bitcoin rallied 83% in four
• 11:57
  months. The Perma bears aren't wrong
• 11:59
  that it feels bad, it does feel bad.
• 12:01
  But feeling and signal are two different things.
• 12:05
  When retail is this scared and Wales are this active, history
• 12:09
  has a very clear answer. Even the people closest to the
• 12:12
  administration aren't worried. Eric Trump was on CNBC five days
• 12:16
  ago saying this. You, I.
• 12:17
  Mean you've been big proponents and bullish on Bitcoin as well.
• 12:20
  We still are. I'm a huge proponent of Bitcoin.
• 12:22
  I do think it hits $1,000,000. I think it's one of the greatest
• 12:25
  performing asset classes. I mean, go back two years,
• 12:28
  Bitcoin was that what, 16,000, you know, where is it at right
• 12:31
  now? 70, right?
• 12:32
  I mean, if if you look at the the last 10 years, Bitcoin has
• 12:35
  gone up 70% a year on average year over year for the last
• 12:38
  decade. Name an asset class that has
• 12:40
  performed better than Bitcoin. And now obviously you have lots
• 12:42
  of volatility. If you don't want volatility,
• 12:44
  you know, go invest in some muni, you know, go, go have a
• 12:47
  great time, go invest in some treasury.
• 12:48
  You're going to have volatility with something that has
• 12:50
  tremendous upside. But I've never been more bullish
• 12:53
  on Bitcoin in my life. I've never been more bullish on
• 12:55
  on cryptocurrency in my life. You look never been more bullish
• 12:58
  $1 million target. And he also mentioned that every
• 13:01
  major financial institution, Fidelity, Schwab, JP Morgan,
• 13:05
  Goldman is now in crypto that institutional infrastructure
• 13:09
  didn't exist in 2022. So the floor is higher the cycle
• 13:13
  than any previous. I want to talk to anyone
• 13:15
  watching this who is Bitcoin on an exchange right now.
• 13:19
  You just watched a whale get liquidated for $61 million on
• 13:22
  one exchange in one day this week.
• 13:25
  Exchanges are not your bank. They are not your vault.
• 13:29
  And if you don't hold your keys, you don't hold your Bitcoin.
• 13:32
  Our partners at The Bitcoin Way will walk you through self
• 13:35
  custody, step by step, safely, simply, at whatever level you're
• 13:39
  starting from. They offer a free 30 minute
• 13:41
  consultation at the bitcoinway.com/me on Bitcoin for
• 13:45
  you, those of you who are watching the show.
• 13:47
  No pressure, no pitch, just real help from people who have been
• 13:50
  doing this for years. If anything this week has made
• 13:53
  you nervous about your Bitcoin sitting on an exchange, that's
• 13:56
  the call to make the bitcoinway.com/beyond Bitcoin.
• 13:59
  Here's the part that ties everything together, and it's
• 14:01
  the part that the tariff panic crowd hasn't thought through.
• 14:04
  Tariffs are inflationary. That's not an opinion, that's
• 14:07
  economics. When you put a 15% tax on
• 14:09
  imported goods, those goods get more expensive.
• 14:12
  That's inflation. And the Fed is already running a
• 14:15
  core PCE inflation rate of 2.8% above its 2% target.
• 14:19
  So add tariffs on top of that. the Fed can't cut rates that
• 14:22
  would pour gasoline on inflation, and they can't raise
• 14:25
  rates forever. The economy probably wouldn't be
• 14:27
  able to handle that. So they're stuck.
• 14:29
  Does that sound familiar? And the dollar is already
• 14:31
  breaking the DXY. the US Dollar index had a four year low in
• 14:34
  January 2026. Even as it recovered slightly.
• 14:37
  The trend is clear. Faith in the dollar is eroding.
• 14:40
  And look where that money is going.
• 14:42
  Gold just crossed $5500 an ounce.
• 14:44
  All time high. Gold is up 8.6% since tariff
• 14:48
  fears started. Bitcoin is down 6.6% in the same
• 14:51
  window. And I know what the chart looks
• 14:52
  like. It looks bad for Bitcoin.
• 14:54
  Gold winning, Bitcoin losing, Peter Schiff popping champagne.
• 14:57
  But here's what gold traders know and haven't fully acted
• 15:00
  upon yet. Bitcoin has the same inflation
• 15:02
  hedge properties as gold and better ones.
• 15:04
  Fixed supply of 21 million. Perfectly portable.
• 15:07
  No counterparty risk, no storage fees, no confiscation risk.
• 15:10
  Full verifiable. For centuries, people ran to
• 15:13
  gold when governments debase their currencies.
• 15:15
  Now there's an asset that does everything gold does and more.
• 15:19
  And right now it's on sale. So go get some JP Morgan, the
• 15:22
  bank whose CEO called Bitcoin a fraud in 2017, is now projecting
• 15:27
  $165,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
• 15:31
  The reason? The debasement Trade.
• 15:33
  Retail investors, as JP Morgan says, will rotate out of Fiat
• 15:37
  into Bitcoin as currency debasement accelerates.
• 15:39
  That's not a Bitcoin bull. Saying that, that's the biggest
• 15:42
  bank in America. JP Morgan Grayscale also
• 15:45
  published a full report on this titled Bitcoin and the
• 15:47
  Debasement Trade. Their conclusion?
• 15:49
  The conditions that have driven Bitcoin 10X since 2020 are
• 15:53
  accelerating if they're not reversing.
• 15:55
  And then there's this. Economist Timothy Peterson
• 15:58
  tracked bitcoins performance going back to 2011 when at least
• 16:01
  half of the prior two years were positive for Bitcoin, which they
• 16:05
  were. Bitcoin traded higher ten months
• 16:07
  later, 88% of the time, 88%. That's not a guess.
• 16:11
  That's track record. Now, let me bring it all back to
• 16:14
  today. Trump raised tariffs, Bitcoin
• 16:17
  dipped. The fear and greed index is at
• 16:19
  an all time low. The perma bears are calling for
• 16:21
  50K Bitcoin and simultaneously Sailor just did his 100th
• 16:26
  purchase. Whales accumulated 230,000
• 16:29
  Bitcoin in three months. Funding rates are signaling a
• 16:31
  potential short squeeze. JP Morgan is calling for
• 16:34
  $165,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year.
• 16:37
  The dollar is weakening. Gold is surging.
• 16:39
  The legal mechanisms behind these tariffs expire in 150
• 16:42
  days. You see where this is all going,
• 16:44
  right? Because I don't.
• 16:45
  The tariff panic didn't change Bitcoins fundamentals.
• 16:48
  Fixed supply. 21 million. Still unsensible, still
• 16:51
  borderless, still immune to every trade war, every executive
• 16:54
  order, every Supreme Court ruling.
• 16:57
  There are no tariffs on Bitcoin. The people buying right now are
• 17:02
  the ones who understand that. They understand that Bitcoin is
• 17:04
  the answer. Before I get out of here, if you
• 17:06
  want to connect with me or the Bitcoin community at large, I'm
• 17:09
  on Club Orange, formerly known as the Orange Pill app.
• 17:12
  The app changed its name to Club Orange.
• 17:15
  Same community, same vibe, but just a new look.
• 17:18
  Find me, I'm at Oceans OSHINS, just my name, and you can send
• 17:22
  me a message. I actually read them.
• 17:24
  If this episode hit you differently, if you've got
• 17:26
  questions or you're just going through the tear of panic like I
• 17:29
  am and need someone to talk you off the ledge, let's get off
• 17:31
  that ledge, man. I'll be right there.
• 17:33
  I'm on cluborange.org. My handle is at Oceans.
• 17:36
  OSHINS. Hit me up.
• 17:38
  Here's what I want to leave you with every single time in
• 17:40
  Bitcoin's history. Every single time, the people
• 17:43
  who were loudest about the end were the ones who sold and the
• 17:46
  people who were the quietest, the ones loading their wallets
• 17:49
  while everyone else ran. Those are the ones who changed
• 17:52
  their lives. This week, the Fear and Greed
• 17:55
  Index hit the lowest number it has ever printed.
• 17:57
  More fearful than COVID, More fearful than FTX, the most
• 18:01
  extreme capitulation reading in the history of the index.
• 18:05
  And the whales bought $15 billion worth of Bitcoin in
• 18:08
  three months. Get it through your brain.
• 18:10
  Fear and conviction have never coexisted more clearly than they
• 18:14
  do right now. The question is, which one are
• 18:16
  you going to let drive your decisions?
• 18:18
  The exit from the broken system exists.
• 18:20
  It always has, it's just on sale.
• 18:23
  So go out there and study some Bitcoin.
• 18:25
  If this episode helped you cut through the noise and hit that
• 18:27
  like button. Hit that subscribe button to the
• 18:29
  Simply Bitcoin channel. Smash that notification bell so
• 18:32
  you don't miss the next one. Leave a comment below.
• 18:33
  Is 2026 the year that you finally go into self custody?
• 18:37
  I want to know if you want to reach out to me directly.
• 18:38
  I'm on X at run dance Bitcoin. That's RUNDANCE Bitcoin.
• 18:43
  BITCOINI used to run and dance at the same time and I also like
• 18:48
  Bitcoin, hence the name. You can come argue with me or
• 18:50
  agree. Either works.
• 18:52
  I'm oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin.
• 18:54
  Until next time.