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How the Trade War Is Reshaping Supply Chains From Los Angeles to Vietnam · Trumponomics

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: global economy to you this week with a Southeast Asian
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: feel because I'm spending a few days in Singapore. We've
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: been talking a lot recently about the global slowdown and
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: where it might lead. It's worth remembering that we also
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: saw trade and global manufacturing take a step downwards back
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: in and that didn't cause a global recession. In fact,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: we look back on it now more as a pause
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: for breath in a long global recovery. But back then
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: China in effect came to the rescue with a massive
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: dose of stimulus for its economy. One of the things
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: that makes people uneasy about this latest slowdown is that
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: the Chinese authorities look much less likely to rescue the
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: global economy today. They're just too worried about where excessive
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: stimulus might lead. That's forcing some difficult conversations for policymakers
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: in countries such as Australia who have benefited so much
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: from China's economic momentum in the past. We'll hear more
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: about that from our Asia Managing editor Malcolm Scott in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: a few minutes. But of course, the other reason this
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: time feels different is that the source of the trouble
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: is the US administration and its assault on global trade.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Asia Economy correspondent Michelle jam Risco is going to
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  Speaker 1: talk to me about Southeast Asia's response to Donald Trump's
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  Speaker 1: trade wars in a little bit, But first, our Real
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Economy editor Sarah McGregor, who's based in Los Angeles, has
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: been catching up with an old school friend of hers
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: who wanted to set up a new business there and
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: found herself right in the front lines. What were the
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: first days of starting your business? Line the funny throughout
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: my kitchen table. I'm not gonna lie. It wasn't glamorous
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  Speaker 1: at all. I think like it was exciting for me
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: and scary. It took a huge leap of faith for
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Darava Echio to leave her day job and start a
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: beauty company in Los Angeles five years ago. Dara knew
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: she had the qualities to be a successful entrepreneur. Like
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  Speaker 1: industry expertise, she also has a tireless work ethic that
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: was instilled by her parents, who fled the Southeast Asian
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  Speaker 1: nation of Laos with nothing when she was an infant
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  Speaker 1: and worked their way into the middle class. Best of all,
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  Speaker 1: Dara had a great idea to create a cosmetics branding
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: company she called Venom. In doing that, she chose a
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  Speaker 1: growing industry that can often weather the ups and downs
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  Speaker 1: of even the toughest economic times. Research has noted the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: lipstick effect, which shows makeup and lingerie stores thrive in
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  Speaker 1: tougher economic times as consumers treat themselves to lower cost luxuries.
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  Speaker 1: Fast forward to today, and she's moved her operations from
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  Speaker 1: her kitchen table to an office in West l A.
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  Speaker 1: Dara has six employees and contracts to develop and manufacture
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  Speaker 1: customize beauty products in the millions of dollars. My mom
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: and my father being like really hard working, I guess
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: like taught us those values and we would see them
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  Speaker 1: working like really late hours and just seeing them like
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  Speaker 1: really grind for us, you know. So I feel like
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  Speaker 1: my work ethic today comes from having them as role models.
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  Speaker 1: Nothing was hard given to us, so we would have
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: to really like learn it ourselves. But last year, Dara's
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  Speaker 1: dreams collided with the Trump Administration's trade war with China.
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  Speaker 1: She was drawn into a conflict. She wanted nothing to
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  Speaker 1: do with President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods hit
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  Speaker 1: all sorts of items, including lipstick and I make up.
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  Speaker 1: Almost overnight, Dara realized the harsh reality that her very
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  Speaker 1: own supply chains in China were in the firing line. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it was weird because I didn't I actually didn't think
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  Speaker 1: about it, and I was like, Oh, it's gonna be fine.
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  Speaker 1: We already have paid our you know, our people, and
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  Speaker 1: it's good. We already have these purchase orders in place.
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  Speaker 1: But what I didn't realize how bad it was was
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: going from zero to zero to ten. Because when we
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: do our deals with our clients, we have probably put
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: everything on paper and done the planning and or deals
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  Speaker 1: about eight months prior, so that fixed costs that we
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: agreed to with our client has been that all on
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  Speaker 1: one cost. So if we get charged something eight months
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  Speaker 1: down the role that we didn't predict to fix into
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  Speaker 1: our costs, then who pays for that? American consumers may
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: hear more about whether prices will be rising for familiar
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  Speaker 1: China made goods like iPhones, Craton barrel furniture, or Adidas sneakers,
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  Speaker 1: but the tariffs have been particularly painful for small businesses,
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  Speaker 1: which are a powerful engine of the U S economy.
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  Speaker 1: Accounting for about fort of GDP and employing almost half
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  Speaker 1: of American workers. According to JP Morgan, they play a
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  Speaker 1: key role in global commerce, producing about a third of
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: all exports that leave America's shores worth nearly half a
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  Speaker 1: trillion dollars a year. Robert Heiblum, a business owner and
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  Speaker 1: chair of the Small Business Council of the Consumer Technology Association,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: explains why smaller businesses can be more vulnerable to the
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  Speaker 1: trade wark followed than large ones. The problem is limited
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  Speaker 1: castital cash, and this takes cash. Secondarily, it's they don't
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  Speaker 1: have diverse businesses. They're not multinational. They cannot or set
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: their business losses here with business games elsewhere. Third is
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: most small companies don't have tremendous pricing power, and so
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: they're subject to the market, and that's very limiting, particularly
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: when when tariffs are twenty five or too much to absorb,
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  Speaker 1: yet some of their big competitors will. As a matter
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  Speaker 1: of course, Trump campaigned on a message of resurrecting the
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: by gone glory days of manufacturing and bringing back jobs.
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  Speaker 1: He was essentially selling the American dream, But for business
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  Speaker 1: people like Dara, the tariff war he started is making
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  Speaker 1: it much harder to get ahead even with hard work
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  Speaker 1: and grit. The uncertainty and dragon business has made that
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  Speaker 1: dream a little further out of reach for the small
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  Speaker 1: businesses in terms of the questions that they have is
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  Speaker 1: how can we plan, how can we realistically plan for
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  Speaker 1: inventories or our plan for the movement of our goods
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  Speaker 1: that we need if there's this threat of global tariff.
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  Speaker 1: Maria Selina's is president of the Los Angeles Area Chamber
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  Speaker 1: of Commerce. She says her region has really been hit
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  Speaker 1: hard by the tariffs since it has one of America's
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  Speaker 1: largest concentrations of smaller businesses. Our advice to them is
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: to be as planful as possible. Is very difficult to
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  Speaker 1: manage a business when there's uncertainty, and especially in international markets,
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  Speaker 1: it's important for them to make sure they understand all
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the different levers that are at their fingertips in order
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  Speaker 1: to react to conditions like tariffs. But those those are
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: all really challenging conversations for small businesses to have because
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  Speaker 1: they really do not have the flexibility that larger organizations
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  Speaker 1: have in being able to make a movement in in
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: how their products flow. Over the years, Dara has visited
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  Speaker 1: China many times and She plans to go again in December,
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  Speaker 1: one conversation at a time. She's built a person o
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  Speaker 1: rapport with factory owners and managers. She's developed a small
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  Speaker 1: network of factories she can call on to deliver her
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  Speaker 1: orders at high quality and in a reliable way. She's
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  Speaker 1: found that factories in China operate at such a low cost,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: with a quick turnaround, and have a personal touch that
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  Speaker 1: she just hasn't found in the United States. Some bigger
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: companies are able to relocate their supply chains to Vietnam
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  Speaker 1: and other cheaper nations, but for Dara, doing that would
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  Speaker 1: mark a big setback in her efforts. Over the past
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  Speaker 1: few years. We spend years and years betting our factories,
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  Speaker 1: the investment, the money that it takes to like test
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  Speaker 1: and work and make sure that because we spent a
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  Speaker 1: lot of time like even like helping raise their quality
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  Speaker 1: standard and create these like specifications for inspection and like
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  Speaker 1: because we have a certain quality of bar that we're
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  Speaker 1: known for. It so years and years and even like Matt,
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  Speaker 1: you know, like just the time it takes to get
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  Speaker 1: our factories to that point in training. But we'd have
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  Speaker 1: to start from scratch, and God knows, like it might
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  Speaker 1: take like another two years to get this new Vietnamese
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  Speaker 1: which is fine. You know, if this is going to continue,
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  Speaker 1: then maybe we would make the plan to do that.
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  Speaker 1: But is it better to invest in that or to
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  Speaker 1: just like reinvest in what we're already doing and then
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  Speaker 1: just take the head and just like wait it up.
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  Speaker 1: Dar is just one example of many businesses across America
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  Speaker 1: who are suffering the impact of the trade war. It's
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  Speaker 1: slowing down their investments and hiring decisions and disrupting their
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  Speaker 1: supply chains. Add it all up and it can be
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  Speaker 1: a matter of life or death for some small businesses.
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  Speaker 1: It is frustrating because I feel like when there was
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  Speaker 1: material increases and stuff, we might cover it, you know,
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  Speaker 1: because it's just a small thing because we don't try
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  Speaker 1: to nickel a dime everything. But when it comes to
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  Speaker 1: a huge loss like that, like in the Purien a
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  Speaker 1: tax on your commercial goods, that is it's pretty big
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah McGregor. So that's how the
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  Speaker 1: trade wars feel for a small business sitting in California.
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  Speaker 1: But I wanted to take advantage of being here in
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Singapore to get the other side of the story. You
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: know here in Southeast Asia, these economies famously have used
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  Speaker 1: exporting to the rest of the world as their ticket
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  Speaker 1: to national prosperity, and Bloomberg's Asia Economy correspondent Michelle jem
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  Speaker 1: Riscoe spends her days here in Singapore and around the
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  Speaker 1: region analyzing every twist and turn in that story. Michelle,
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  Speaker 1: you were you were listening to that? I mean, does
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  Speaker 1: does any of her experience bear similarity to what companies
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  Speaker 1: are experiencing here? Well, it certainly does in the sense
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  Speaker 1: that Dara's story is the struggle to adapt to the
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  Speaker 1: US tariffs and in any way possible, But the conversation
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  Speaker 1: is a little bit different in Southeast Asia. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: I think of basically three other avenues that they're they're
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  Speaker 1: dealing with three other challenges. One is how to compete
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  Speaker 1: for the attention of those companies that are actually reworking
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  Speaker 1: their supply chains out of China and to get that
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  Speaker 1: extra business. Conversely, the I can could be how to
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  Speaker 1: manage expectations and overflows of orders, you know, when that
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  Speaker 1: comes all of a sudden these companies rework those supply chains.
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  Speaker 1: And the third is that they sort of political one
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  Speaker 1: they don't want to be seen these businesses as taking asides,
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  Speaker 1: whether it be the US of China or not favoring either.
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  Speaker 1: So there are a few different quirks to the story
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  Speaker 1: here in the region. Yeah, and I think it's interesting
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  Speaker 1: that that actually rushing to take advantage of the trade
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  Speaker 1: wars rather than rather than to dodge them, even with
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  Speaker 1: some of the politic politics that comes with that. Now,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: some people listening might remember that you brought us a
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: great story from the factory flaws of Vietnam when Vietnam
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  Speaker 1: was considered to be a great winner from the US
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  Speaker 1: China trade war, and then we had to follow up
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  Speaker 1: a few months later, which showed us that there's an
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: alternative risk that you can be too successful taking advantage
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: of trade wars. And then the spotlight moves to you
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: remind us what's happened to Vietnam? Right, Well, it is
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  Speaker 1: a complicated story, even if you just look at this year.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, of course, we we have been tracing the
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  Speaker 1: successes is of the both the furniture maker that you
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: mentioned as well as countless others that are seeing renewed
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: interest in Vietnam, and sometimes the interest is outrunning the reality. Um,
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  Speaker 1: so you know there are two kind of cautionary tales
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  Speaker 1: that we've been also tracing for Vietnam's case this year,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: and one is, you know what you mentioned, uh, not
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: not trying to boast too much of one's success, is uh,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: you know, for fear that a tweet could turn it around,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: or or other tools by the US. We've seen, of course,
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  Speaker 1: the currency manipulation report by the U. S. Treasury taking
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: away of duty free preferences that they just did with Thailand,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: or you know, even extra tariffs. And in the case
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: of Vietnam, this this happened as well, that tariffs were
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: applied as sort of a penalty for transhipment issues that
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  Speaker 1: the US felt that too many of the steel products
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: were we're actually originating in other countries, and Vietnam wasn't
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: doing enough to uh kind of stop that sort of
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: end running of the tariffs that had been imposed. So
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: you know, there's there's all sorts of penalties that they
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: can they could face. And then the other of course
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  Speaker 1: being you know, they they're they're constantly fearing that they're
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: just not catching up enough in terms of development and
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: advancing their infrastructure enough to handle the inflows. So that's
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  Speaker 1: certainly an issue with Vietnam, where they're looking at much
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  Speaker 1: needed infrastructure investment that's just not moving fast enough, and
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the views of many regulations are are still tight around
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: and around some things is if you talk to businesses,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: they're looking for faster training of employees, UM, you know,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: better labor regulations, easier ways to buy land and property UM,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: and really just the basics of road and rail to
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: kind of get things around the country and move products around.
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  Speaker 1: So a lot of adjustments need to be made, and
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I think sometimes they're just not moving fast enough. I
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: guess the other thing, which certainly I hear a lot
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: talking to officials and business people in Europe, but we
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: also had this morning talking to officials and others in Singapore,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: is this perception that UM globalization is now going to
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: be sort of torn in half, that there's going to
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: be a US side and a China side UH, and
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: disputes around companies like Huawei are going to force people
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: to take sides. Am I going to go the kind
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: of Huawei Chinese oriented technologies even if that means I
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: might get cut out of deals in the US, or
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: do I have to pick the US? You know, in
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Europe in general, when you raise that to European businesses.
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  Speaker 1: They tend to think that Europe will will if it
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: has to, would end up siding with the US. Obviously,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: it's it's not so much of a question here because
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: people are so caught up with the China's economy and
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: trade with China. But the companies that you talk to,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: how are they approaching that question if there really is
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: going to be a point where you have to take
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: sides in this global economy? Yeah, well, some you know,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: they want to hedge their bets. They want to kind
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: of put investments everywhere and make sure that they're not
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: upsetting either side. Um and you know, they in a
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: way they've kind of had to act like governments. They've
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: had to, you know, think, how do I both lobby
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: from my perspective on how I don't think the tariffs
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: might be helping or you know, it's it's getting harder
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: to adapt or I need this or that to set
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: up in a new country. But at the same time,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I don't want to push too hard in the sense
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: of you know, upsetting either side, and and and as
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: you say, picking sides, um and certainly we see that
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: playing out in things like five G and Company. Based debates,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: So it's it's gotten really sticky on that front. And
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: when you talk about the U. S and China, particularly
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: in this region, it's a very sensitive conversation. For a
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: long time, China has been the top trading partner of
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: most of the top economies in Southeast Asia, but at
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: the same time, a lot of them have very strong security,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: investment and strategic ties to the US. So it's it's
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: not an easy decision, and one that you'll hear Singapore
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: policymakers especially constantly harp that they don't want to ever
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: see the day where they have to pick a side.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Many people think that is where we're heading, because this
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be something that's got This change in
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: the U. S. China relationship doesn't seem to be something
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: that was going to change even if we get a
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: change of administration in twenty We've talked about before. People
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: in Congress, and certainly many of the Democratic presidential candidates
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: are just as suspicious about China and have some of
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: the same approach that we've seen from President Trump. So
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: for a country like Singapore that's always been a gateway
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: between West and East, gosh, that's a the risk is
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that they will feel really torn torn in half in
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: terms of their economic model. Michelle, thanks very much for
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: chatting to me and being here in Singapore. Thanks for Finally,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I wanted to chat briefly with our managing editor for
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Economics in all of Asia, Malcolm Scott, because his team
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: had produced an interesting story this week about three central
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: banks in the region who you'd have to say had
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: a good global financial crisis ten years ago, but are
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: looking a bit more vulnerable to another downturn now. It's
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Malcolm Fak thanks for
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: doing this down the line from Sydney. Remind us how
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: those three countries managed to avoid doing anything that dramatic
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: with their monetary policy last time around in the global
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: financial crisis. Well, to start with, they had much higher
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: cash rates than they do now, much higher benchmark interest rates,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: so they did cut aggressively. They also had aggressive fiscal
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: responses when demand fell off a cliff h during the
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: financial crisis, but they had a lot of policy room
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: to work with and they used it very efficiently. In
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Australia's case, there was even checks posted out to most
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: citizens to to go and spend in the stores and
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: that meant all three, uh, you know, avoided the worst
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: of the global financial crisis. And then their links to
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: China helped. In New Zealand's case, it was dairy white
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: gold they called it at the time. In Australia it
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: was mining investment. That massive stimulus we saw in China
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: really helped rev up Australia's economy as well. And in
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Korea's case, the tech cycle really didn't suffer so much
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: and they saw a big V shaped recovery into that
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: really moded them out of the hard times. Now we're
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: in a very different situation. Yes, And I was, I mean,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it's interesting, I said at the start of the program
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: that we had had, you know, in the previous slowdowns,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: even in the in this current recovery, and for example,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: you know, the big thing that came to rescue the
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: global economy was China. China stimulus. Um, you don't we
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: don't have that anymore, which is important for all of
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the world, but it's particularly important for this region. So
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: your piece this week, or the piece from your team,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: said that those three economies were now just one shock
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: away from using quantitative ease NG doing the bond purchases
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: in order to boost the money supply that we saw
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: in so many other countries during the global financial crisis.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Is that something people are talking about there. It's something
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: that a lot of people are talking about because all
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: of the central bank governors have started to mention it
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: from the three economies now, they've done it reluctantly so far,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and each one of them have said, hey, we may
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: have to start looking at this, but we don't anticipate
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: will have to use it. That's been pretty much the
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: consistent message. But just the very fact that they've acknowledged
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: that they're running out of room in conventional space and
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: have acknowledged that they're starting to look at policy options
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: in the unconventional space has really got economists, you know,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: running their game plays, running the scenario analysis, looking at
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: what sort of quee, what sort of unorthodox policies each
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: of the banks might take should they continue to need
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: to stimulate their economies, And do you think I mean,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: this has been a region that has in the past,
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: certainly Australia and New Zealand led the way and some
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: of the innovations we've seen in central banking, making them
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: central banks independent, having inflation targets. You know, both of
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: those things were first tried or fully developed in Australia
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and New Zealand. Do you think they they might be
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: looking for ways to innovate with quanstant dive easing as well,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you know, given that a lot of people in in
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Europe and America are actually questioning whether quantitative easing is
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: really that effective, whether they innovate stefinitely, or whether they
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: have just had the benefit of being able to see
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: what has worked and what hasn't in the major economies
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: and therefore contailor a package with the benefit of that
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: decade of watching and observing, you know. The rb A
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: governor in Australia, Philip Lowers, has said that from his
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: viewing around you know, the other other examples of unorthodox policies,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: from what he sees, it's a package of measures, no
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: one particular unconventional option that works best. It's it's how
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: you formulate the package. You know. In other cases we're
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: talking about some real reluctance to go towards a negative rate.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Perhaps asset purchases are going to be maybe favored, but
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: then there's other question marks about well bond yields are
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: already so low. You know what can what can asset
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: purchases really? Do you know what real significance in an
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: era where there's that reluctance to invest in the business community,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: does it really matter? So, you know, innovations, Whether there's
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: going to be some new policy, I'm not so sure.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be the packaging and the experience of
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: the last ten years that will help them as they
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: formulate these goals. Should they need to adopt them, well
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: it might help them. I guess the rest of us
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: can feel a bit sad that they're not going to
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: get more bright ideas coming out of Australasia for for
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: responding to this this downturn. These are the countries, in
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the case of Australia that managed to avoid recession altogether.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: If they're running out of good, good options, then that
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: seems like bad news for the rest of us. But
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: we shall see. Um, Malcolm Scott, thank you very much,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Thanks Stephanie, thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: next week with more on the ground insights into the
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: global economy. I think I'll be back in London then.
• 22:04
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• 22:08
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• 22:12
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• 22:15
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• 22:18
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• 22:21
  Speaker 1: at my Stephanomics. The story in this episode was written
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: and reported by Sarah McGregor. It was produced by Magnus
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Hendrickson and edited by Scott Lamman, who is also the
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: executive producer of Stephanomics. Special thanks this week to Michelle
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: jam Risco, Malcolm Scott, Richard Lewis, and Kevin Tan Francesco
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Levy is the head of Bloomberg Podcast